cyber security is going to be the biggest thing going forward regardless of who wins the election. the best way to play is in a basket. cibr is the best basket. safe way to play, cyber etf. >> jay, thanks very much. and thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott walker live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with three critical days ahead culminating with thursday's fed decision. what happens with stocks? anyone's guess. the backdrop, still positive most say with the economy chugging along, interest rates expected to move lower. we'll ask our experts where this bull market is likely to go in the weeks ahead. in the meantime, there's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. it has been a mostly red day for the majors, but we're trying to make a little run at positive territory on both the nasdaq and

the s&p. we'll see. apple is lower today. berkshire hathaway cutting stock lower. that's interesting. and nvidia is joining the dow on friday. those two companies neck and neck in terms of market cap. we're going to track that right up to today's finish. yields, a touch lower ahead of the fed meeting. dollar lower. oil rising. takes us to the talk of the take. how to play what could be a more volatile couple of weeks ahead. with me, as you can see. welcome back. >> great to be here. >> it's really hard to try to game out the election and what you're supposed to do. so, let's try and, i guess, look beyond. is the backdrop for stocks no matter what happens on election day still positive? >> i think so. i think so. i mean, the question is, do you get a growth scare that gets people afraid 2025, 2026 earnings are impaired? probably not. i think the bull case is still

intact, right? gross margins are going up for a lot of companies. you might get a positive skew out of china stimulus. you see how nvidia acts. you might get more case studies that there's productivity from a.i. deployment. you know, we're probably going to run a pretty big deficit next year no matter who wins. that usually finds its way into the 20 or 30 u.s. equities, trickling its way down. i think the setup is skewed to the positive and the bull case is still intact in case we get a new policy from a new political regime that looks more austere and maybe you change your mind. >> what happens if we do run the deficit, which you suggest -- we have a sizable deficit. we have to fund it and all that. what happens if that causes yields to back up further? >> the bond vigilante scare thing is always out there. it hasn't really sustainably happened in the last 15 years, even though i hear about it periodically. it's in the distribution of what people talk about.

>> you think it's overblown? overplayed? >> usually when people really get nervous and it's risk on trade, bond yields go lower. that's, kind of, easier to show than it is we're going to, like, fear about the health of the u.s. financial system and bond yields back up. if i look back in time and i look at there's lots of supply coming online, it won't be demand, i'll make this call, the yields back it up. usually it doesn't happen that way. if goi back to qe 1, qe 2, every time the next person would say supplies are coming, every time risk was lower because the world was a riskier place, people bought the 10-year. i guess what i would say that's been a moving target. i remember years ago people said once we're at 3% on the 10-year, u.s. equities can't handle that. then it was 3 1/2, then 4. what is it at 5? >> what if it does move towards 5? >> i think if growth is better

than people think, it's okay. i think if theconsumer hangs in, it's okay. i think if people are worried about stagflation, no bueno. >> as long as we have margins that are good, productivity that is rising, and the fed cutting -- and the fed, by the way, cutting not through, sort of, historical precedent, i guess you could say, where it's not like the labor market is deteriorating to where the fed has to start cutting rates. so, maybe this time is different. those three things, margins, productivity, fed cutting, that underlays the bullish backdrop. >> i think so. i think if you get news out of china, then all of a sudden if you're short equities, you're saying i don't care about margins going up, i don't care about the feds being the first half of the path, i don't care about a massive deficit, and i don't care about china stimulating a ton. you're starting to put together some -- you better be right that people are afraid of a growth scare. most years when the markets are

up this much in the first ten months of the year, it tends to fall through because people are chasing the performance and fear of missing out. trading-wise, usually when you're this strong, jan through october 31st, you end up in november and december. >> what do you like most in the markets? >> there's a lot of things. >> really. list a few. >> i like health care services. they have pricing power and they're going to grow next year. unless we get a massive recession, things like unh tend to earn more money. i think the semiconductors i like a lot. i don't believe the story about compute growing above gdp is remotely over. it's not just nvidia. it's the semicap equipment place. it's also -- synopsis which sold off a lot. sml kind of blew up because they're samsung. i think ultimately these companies are going to earn more

two or three years from now than they are now. i think it's less the diversified companies just because they have more broad based, industrial, and auto exposure. that may be a little longer to burn off excess inventory. there's plenty of things in semis. i think there's things to own in housing and building materials. of course short structures, whether it's multifamily or single family, i probably want to own building products. there's doors and there's insulation. you can buy bldr. you can buy stocks that have blown up, they probably have better earnings going forward. there's tons in the housing exposure sector. probably power. you look at the stuff with amazon you were talking about in the previous program, definitely you're going to need more power whether it's gas or others. we've had choppy stocks today. but i think if you look a year from now they're going to be up. power, housing, health care services, semis. >> what do you hate? >> some of the same stuff i'm anchored to hating like physical

retailers, the targets of the world. they're challenged. they can't get back to the long-term margin they had and comp well as the consumer is slowing. i think the banks thing is interesting. i get the knee-jerk reaction that people think we'll have with less regulation and the specter of taxes at least not rising and why retail banks should go up. the banks are up a lot. a lot of the big banks are not really cheap on tangible books. i think it probably is more like selling if they go up than building a position. >> you know, if you're talking about some kind of reflation trade, if it's ever going to run big deficits, that means the likelihood rates are going to remain elevated on the long end of the curve. >> it should help. >> lower regulation, strong economy, good for the bank. >> should help. they haven't pro rata participated the last 15 years.

my question is more while i think there are tons of inefficiencies in the banks and so many ways to improve processes, historically they compete businesses on prices. they invest in a.i. productivity but have to run systems in parallel. you don't see the benefit on the cost side until later. >> you hate small caps, right? >> yeah. i don't -- my argument is just more the s&p 500 is 16 times as big as small caps. i had this epiphany last week. if somebody wants to deal with small caps, great. you own 12 times as much s&p if you do small caps instead of the current weight 16 times as much. that's so much less to me than getting the individual securities right within the s&p, i'm almost like fine already. yes, they're cheap versus history. i think that's cheap for a reason, which is inferior margin profile. but if somebody wants to bank on an accelerated economy or the election outcome, et cetera, i want to position for small caps

to work for a two-week rally, they could. when trump won in '16, i think it was up four days in a row. you could get a short-term trade. beyond that i need to believe in accelerated earnings and margins. >> i set you up. >> she's going to put that on a tee and then smash it 300 yards down the center of the fairway. >> i put it on the tee for her. christina hooper. great to have everybody. i mean, i did tee you up, christina. you get the first shot at mr. parker. >> sometimes i need a little help. thank you, scott. so, my argument is that we are cutting into growth, that this is an environment in which we're likely to see a very modest slowdown in the u.s. and then a reacceleration that starts next year. markets will discount that in advance. and that means that the smaller and the mid caps, which might be the sweet spot that you might even be comfortable with because

they do have some of the characteristics of small caps, they're more sensitive to the economic cycle, and i think they could perform very well now and into 2025. >> i've got a lot of love on the desk these days for mid caps, especially unpolished gems. that's what tony pasquarella goldman has called them. there seems to be a good amount of momentum in that area. maybe you have a bigger -- >> i think mid caps make a lot more sense. a lot of them are high quality businesses that can grow and have good pricing and you don't get killed when cpi rises if that's part of the bull case. i think we talked about on the air a month or two ago that if she's right that the economy re-accelerates, you want to own lower quality stuff that can benefit more. i think the question would be what gives you super-confidence it's going to re-accelerate. say second half of 2015, i want to be anticipatory. maybe i'm buying in february, not november. i think there could be debate

about it. i think when you look historically, small caps outperform -- when blood's in the street, that's when you've got to gamble you're going to get the recovery. if knob is saying we're going to have a recession, then why am i playing for the recovery on the other side of one which now seems less likely than before. >> what's your feel here on these markets ahead of the election? we've got a fed decision coming on thursday. obviously it's going to color where we go in near-term to say the least. >> thank, scott. it's great to be here. we think the market's in a comfortable place here. we do think there's a lot of uncertainty, obviously, and perhaps some disallusionment with some of the a.i. spending not translating into profits quickly. we think the overall backdrop is favorable. we think the case for economic acceleration actually into 2025 on the back of lower interest rates and greater business spending is a pretty sound thesis. and we actually think we'll see that growth and see that

improved productivity going into 2025 that will allow for pretty broad-based rally, including small caps, where we see strong growth, where we see some areas of the economy that might benefit more from lower rates picking up a bit. >> let me ask you this. is that backdrop, is that bigger at this point than whomever wins the election? certain policies are going to be different. certain sectors are going to go up and others may go down, and stocks may make, you know, subsequent moves based on all that. but the backdrop itself, which the stock market's going to count on more than anything else, is that bigger than whoever's name is occupying 1600 pennsylvania avenue, that being strong economy, rate cuts coming, pent up demand for m&a, et cetera. >> we think which sectors outperform and which individual companies get tail wind or some

having a head wind will differ depending on who's in the white house and what some of the policies are. we do think that backdrop is very strong. we think between lower interest rates, productivity improvements, business spending coming out strong in 2025, we think that's going to be the story of 2025. and yes, we could get disruptions for things such as tariffs. yes we could get tax negotiations that cause some hiccups along the way. but we do think that backdrop for 2025 is still a favorable one and is going to outweigh some of the noise that takes place on a month-to-month basis. >> christina, you want to address that? it's kind of the crux of the -- piece the other day in "the journal." growth is great. whoever wins is going to inherit a strong economy, and the quality of that growth is equally impressive, given the productivity. >> absolutely. i think this is quite analogous to the mid 1990s. the last time that the fed

actually tightened and avoided a recession. when we saw those cuts start, we saw very good performance from stocks and other risk assets. and of course then we started seeing a lot of investment going into technology related to the internet and then of course y2k, which set us up for greater productive. there was a really nice period in there for the stock market in terms of returns. it was tech heavy. i think it could be different this time. i think we see fuller participation from cyclicals, smaller caps, and outside the u.s. i think uk equities look good, em looks good in this environment. that to me is where we're headed and it has little to do with who is elected tomorrow. it has so much to do with the fed. when i hear the trump trade, all i think is -- or the harris trade -- it is the powell trade we need to be focused on. >> i think i agree with the panel on every regime, political regime, will take credit or assign blame as it services them and the realities really cycles

beyond them. i remember many years ago i was at one of these dog and pony shows, i think it was bill -- and he said, i wake up every day, walk my dog on the beach, and we watch the sun rise. i just don't give my dog credit for it. i agree with that. it is more about the -- cycle and the business cycle and the like. >> i guess my point would be, are we at an inflection point that's going to be positive no matter what, right? because the economy's good, the consumer's hanging in, and the fed's cutting interest rates. or are we at a later cycle point of view which matters in the context of this conversation? >> if i use january 1, 2023, you were supposed to cover your nvidia in meta shorts and get long as possible. it's because people thought we were goes to the end of the hiking cycle and they could anticipate the end of it. i think at some point in 2025 people will say, we're, kind of, more done cutting than not.

and then they'll, sort of, discount when the fed takes their foot off the front end. if you look at history, if you look at what's in the price, i think it's sometime toward the end of the first quarter if we're saying we're close to being done, you're going to get less excited about the fed getting the accommodation. you just start believing and seeing the acceleration people are calling for in the fundamentals. if you get that, yeah, you'll be fine. if you don't, i think that's the tension point. but for now, i think it's fine. >> i think you get that. i think you've got a pretty significant fed easing cycle ahead of us. we also have the potential for very significant real wage growth. and i think we can't overlook that as a factor. i also think in the shorter term, one key catalyst is that the presidential election will be over. what we've seen in a lot of the earnings reports and also the federal reserve beige book is there's a pause button hit by companies in terms of hiring and spending, by consumers as well. that ends no matter who gets elected just because we know who's been elected.

i think that's a critical point. >> best part of the market right now for the next, i don't know, six months? what do you think that is? >> we think it's infrastructure. u.s. infrastructure. and that does cover some of the areas that adam mentioned, does cover housing. it covers data centers. it covers some of the large-scale projects that are being built. it covers enhancements to the electricity grid. a lot of money is going to a relatively small segment of the economy, both from spending by megacap tech companies, by fiscal spending, by onshoring, by international companies wanting to locate in the u.s. we think that trend continues and is very strong regardless of who's in the white house and still has a lot of legs to it. >> what i find interesting, we have this continual debate on the valuation of the market. you've been looking a little bit more micro rather than big picture valuation looking at stocks, which are at 50 times

their pes sort of a beware, or at least trading above 50 forward for the first time in at least three years. costco and amd are on that list. why did you pick those out? what is it about that metric that gives you pause? >> well, you know, i think everyone loves costco, either going to the store or the stock. they like the high percentage operating market that comes with the annuity and maybe they had the netflix moment where they're going to get better at you not using my card or vice versa. they're going to clamp down on it. the stock went from low earnings to 50 times. at some point, you just wonder, is there a barrier. so, what we decided to do was look for all the companies we could find the last 25 years that, sort of, reached that 50 times earnings and what the distribution of returns and multiples were for securities. the answer is six to nine months later, you start to see pretty dramatic underperformance.

i think 20% of the companies two years later could remain that high. you've got to be cautious about in thinking about selling, not that costco is in a great business, but more you're in the 30% hit rate land two years from now when you were probably 55 or 60% prior. it's probably at some point elevated valuation is going to matter. >> what about amd? you like chips. you like semiconductors that are not rich to a.i. is this one of those? >> amd had a pretty big move last year. they got to 50 times earnings february last year. if the data is right, six months later, you start selling. that would have been august. sort of makes sense. i think most semiconductor experts think you end up with an 80/20 market share and if that panned out pro rata into the market cap, would you show -- nvidia, somewhere 600 b or so a&d. that would be the bull case looking out a little bit.

>> let's take a formal poll before we go. how many cuts do we get between now and the end of the year? one or two? >> i'll go with the expert to my left. >> i'm looking at you. one or two? >> i'll say one. >> okay. >> i have no idea. >> we only have two meetings left. >> i'll say one. >> okay. >> one 25 point basis cut and at least one next year. >> i'm going to go with two 25 point basis cut points to the end of this year, a few cuts next year, but probably just three because we think growth is going to accelerate the labor market. it will be strong. the fed will not be as aggressive. >> it's interesting. you guys just think one. >> i have no idea. >> what is your answer to the question? >> i do know people are worse at forecasting that than they are the stock market. they're not good at forecasting the stock market. >> we'll give you a pass no matter what. thanks, everybody. all right. to seema modi for the biggest names moving into the close. >> we've got our eyes on

marriott delivering a mic'd third quarter, cutting its yearly outlook and revealing cost cutting measures. executives say the u.s. election has resulted in notable hesitancy in corporate bookings in november but was also more bullish on international travel, picking up specifically in europe. and the government stimulus in china may signal a bottoming out. and then there's bath & body works moving on significant volume, up over 8%, unclear on the exact catalyst. but shares are on pace for the largest percentage increase since december 2023. scott? >> seema, thank you. seema modi. we're just getting started. up next, the deed valuation. we're live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪♪

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we are back, most megacap names lower, with the exception of nvidia, which has not reported yet. those shares are rising on news the company will join the dow this week. here to join us, the dean of valuation himself. welcome back. it's nice to see you again. >> thank you, scott. >> as a shareholder and an observer, and both are valuable to us, you've had a chance now to digest these. what's your takeaway? >> i think that these companies have become really good at playing the earnings game. look at them, they can look -- they look at the expectations, they come 2 to 3% above. at this point, you're wondering why even bother with the expectation. they're going to feed back to 3%. i think the real story though is deeper in the earnings reports. i think you see it play out with

company offers like microsoft. the recognition that a.i.'s products and services, the potential is there. but the promise is not being delivered in terms of monetization. i look across the companies, no blowouts in either direction. but i think in many ways, what you need to be looking for is a change in narrative and it's not coming right now. it's pretty much the same narrative that's been running them all year long. >> amazon, though, i don't know that i would agree necessarily. if you look at amazon, that seems to have been maybe the standout. they've, sort of, figured it out. jassy has figured out a way to spend enormously and maintain a high level of profitability after they've gone through a bit of inefficiency. how would you assess what they've done? >> i think in many days -- i described amazon as a field of dreams company 20 years ago, if we build it, they will come. for decades, the market gave them room to build up revenues.

i think we're finally starting to see the profit side deliver. so, i think part of the rise in amazon is one of the -- the other companies all have sky high margins. amazon has not. when you see amazon's margins increase, it's a delivery on a promise that's been long in the making but finally is starting to see the numbers being delivered. and i think investors are -- that's part of the reason you're seeing the stock price reflect. >> do you think that the meta and microsoft selloffs were justified or overdone? >> i think they were justified because i think when i first heard of the ad products and services, i accept that the market can be huge. but every company in this space that's trying to deliver products and services, discovering it's a lot more difficult to convert that promise into profits. people might say they want an a.i. product but i'm not sure they want to pay for it as much as these companies expect them to pay. so, i think we'll have some back and forth. if you do get a hit and it makes money on a subscription basis or

as a transactional basis, i think we'll see the market will work for the companies. but for the moment i think the market is in pause mode saying, show me the money. >> you tell our producers that the mag 7 are at risk of a correction, and you think the election is one of the catalysts for that. >> i was just listening in on the bull argument for markets, and the more i listened to the bullish argument, the less i think of it because there's so little behind it. because so much of what's being talked about is already baked in. the market is already baking in an expectation that earnings will be up 15% a year. for all that to happen, all the good stuff you talked about has to happen. so, the expectation game for markets are being set up. so, i'm not sure, even if that good stuff happens after the election -- i'm not sure it will be -- that you're going to see the market go up as much as, you know, the people on your panel thought it would. and to be honest, i don't think the fed is going to be the player that drives this game.

it's a follow more than a leader in this process. >> i mean, how would you assess the valuations of the stocks? looking at the forward p/es, not in every case have they gone up. in fact, in a few cases they've come in. microsoft's has come in from the beginning of the year. alphabet's has done the same. amazon as well. apple more or less is even. i understand these things have stopped trading as a monolith. it's hard for you to address them as a group. but do you look at these and say, well, the valuations in general are pretty reasonable? >> i mean, collectively, if you think the mag 7 is overvalued, also telling me the market is overvalued. that's why i think if there's a correction that comes, it's going to come from the market correcting, not from these mag 7 dropping off while the rest of the market goes up. in fact, i find it hard to visualize a scenario where the mag 7 is down 10% and the market

is up 10 or 15%. i just can't see that happening. so, i think if you own these stocks already, the thing you're worried about is will there be a market correction. and if so, how much will the mag 7 lose in terms of value? at 12 trillion, you have a lot to lose. you have much on the table that you can give up. >> have you sold any of your own positions in these names? i just like to keep our viewers up to date since as i suggested you're an observer but you're a shareholder too. >> i sold about half my nvidia about a year and a half ago. since then i haven't traded down in any of them. i haven't increased my position either. i feel pretty good about what i have because i frame it in terms of what i originally paid for the stocks, not when they traded on their high threes ago. >> that's why your professor of finance at the stern school of business. you got into those names early.

let me ask you before i let you go. berkshire. what do you make of them continuing to sell down their apple position? do you think they're done? >> i think that something they should have been doing right from the beginning. i never understood charlie munger's point that if you have a great company you shouldn't sell down in it. because you can get overexposed to a single stock no matter how great it is. i think some of this is an auto pilot. it's no reflection on what they think of apple as a company. it's a desire to have a smaller exposure to apple, and i think that's healthy. >> professor, i appreciate it your time as always. enjoy. we'll see you soon. >> all right. up next, top technician -- breaking down how he's navigating the uncertainty surrounding this week's election. he's here next.

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. welcome back. volatility on the rise over the past few week. our next guest says the s&p remains in an uptrend. joining me now, chris verrone, named one of the top analysts on the street. no pressure for the questions i have for you. we're consolidating a bit but we're still in an uptrend. why? >> 70% of stocks are in the moving average and we default particularly around an event. i think surprises in this business typically break in the direction of the trend. so, it would take a lot for us to want to bet against them here.

i think what's interesting is others are. if you look at the put buying over the last couple of days, put call ratios on friday and today are the highest we've seen in years. there is protection being put on here. we've seen vix go from 14 to 24 over the last month or so. and i think that's excessive given what the framework is into this. >> why so? the vix right now is, like, 22, a little north of 22. why does that feel excessive to you? >> two things here. when vile is rising without credit conditions deteriorating, be skeptical of the rise in vol. we're not seeing the type stressor weakness in bb spreads or bbb spreads that would suggest vol is telling us about how it perceives the economy moving forward. i don't think that's what this is about. i think this is positions getting squared up ahead of an event to this week. i would be careful leaning in that direction. >> 5,700, a key level you're

watching. we're a little bit above it here, not much. >> i don't want to focus too much on precision. put your thumb at 56/50 and i think within 50 points on either side you'll get a post-election tradable low. the fact is as we've shown in our work time and time again, into an election whatever the prevailing trend of the market was going in, more times than not it tends to persist on the other side. i think what's key is what hasn't changed? largely financials continue to lead. industrials continue to lead. discretionary has been very stable. it doesn't seem like the market reevaluating how it feels about the economy. that's what i want to focus on in the last eight, ten weeks in the company. >> one of your prior appearances, you suggested as long as the financials remain firm then it's okay, you don't want the financials to break down. it would be a bad sign for this leg of the bull market, if you want to put it that way. >> yeah, you know, scott -- you

know, you do. i always like approaching the market from the perspective of what has been most consistent. financials have been part of this tape for 12 months. if our call is going to change, i think the tenets of the call that have been most reliable probably have to deteriorate. and i don't think you can make that case with financials yet. i don't think you can make it with industrials yet. if anything over the last four or five weeks, discretionary has gotten better here as well, certainly at the expense of staples. what you're not seeing the money move whole sail into the defensive corners of the market and i continue to say looks like a market operating in the status quo. >> what about semis? we mentioned nvidia pushing apple right there on the top of the market cap chain. it obviously has had an incredible run but not every stock is in nvidia in this market. how are you judging the semis? >> this is the one place i think you've seen -- this has been true all spring into the summer into the fall -- when you've seen leadership fracture or

split. where's my research? where's asml? where's samsung? of what is perceived of leadership, i think it's the faultiest of that. it's the weakest under the surface. only 25% of semis are actually above their 200-day moving average here. you do get good seasonality with semis. i would be more declined to fade the bounce in semis than chasing. >> i've heard some suggest health care is a good place to be. you say it's an oversold condition but a very pronounced down trend. >> yeah. that might be generous. when you look at the relative performance of health care, it's been making lower lows in any relative sense for the better part of the last two years. i need to see that inflect. there are some short-term positives here. you have seen maybe a little bit of life get breathed into pharma and biotech. but to say that health care is about to make some massive leadership change i think would be premature here. >> we'll leave it there. good seeing you, as always. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into this close.

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we're about 15 minutes from the closing bell. back to seema modi for a look at

the key stocks she's watching. >> stocks tied to the nuclear energy trade are falling today after a federal commission rejected a rejest to increase the amount of power for a key amazon data center, talen energy, which sold data center to amazon, down more than 2%. constellation, viscera also toppling. and then young china shares rallying after they posted better than expected third quarter results. revenue grew 5% year over year. the company said it's accelerating new store openings for kfc and pizza hut across china. reuters reporting that silver lake and big capital are preparing a multibillion dollar stake in intel -- unit. shares of the chip maker were little changed on the news but down nearly 3% following the upcoming exclusion from the dow stock. >> seema, thank you very much. we're also tracking shares today of "the new york times." julia boorstin here with what's

behind that move, down 7%. >> "the new york times" may have reported earnings that beat expectations, but the stock is down 7.5% as investors question slowing subscriber growth. the company added 260,000 digital subscribers in the quarter. that was 20,000 less than expected and 40,000 less than in the prior quarter. another concern, 600 of the company's tech workers went on strike today. that includes data analysts and designers who support the likes of live blogs and mobile push alerts, these things that are seen as essential to "the new york times" election coverage. it acknowledged the affects on operations and results will depend on further development. scott, we'll have to see if they strike a deal before tomorrow. >> julia, thanks so much. that's julia boorstin. still ahead, what to watch when hims and hers reports in overtime. it's coming up on "the bell."

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quick programming note. cnbc live for election night.

we'll have results as they come in. it starts at 7:00 eastern from the new york stock exchange. don't miss that. up next, we get you t sefor earnings in ot. what to watch for when nxp reports at the top of the hour. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone next.

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that are going to be really interesting to say the least. >> for sure. and the market is showing that. there's not a lot of super-strong conviction on either side of what happens tomorrow in terms of the election. but also really not a lot of underlying panic. you can see some hedging, very near-term in terms of the put call ratio being high. you can see a little bit of a cautious wait and see type action, no big bets. nobody wants to be leaning too far in one direction on a super short-term tactical basis. i think one of the reasons the market is able to hang in there, even as it digests the gains coming into the middle part of the month, the big picture is okay. the election, no matter what happens, no matter what the implications, is not a make or break swing factor for an economy that's still growing pretty well. the fed is going to likely cut in a couple of days and you have earnings coming through okay even if they're not particularly dazzling investors with the beat rate. >> i asked you earlier about

berkshire selling apple, so let me flip it and ask you about nvidia now and the inclusion in the dow and how you're thinking about what based on what you've seen through the years. >> obviously on some level the inclusion of intel previously and not having a play on nvidia, which is 7% of the s&p 500 probably just made the dow feel a little bit unrepresentative of the economy right now. you could definitely make the case that it's just grabbing on to a high momentum play way after the fact, after its greatest gains. i was just looking at the nvidia versus apple equation in terms of market cap neck and neck right now. nvidia has about a third of the revenue in the coming year and about half the net income. so, you can obviously say it's a more expensive stock but it's growing so much more quickly. so, in the short-term, first of all there's no brand-new reason to buy a stock because it's in the dow. history says that's not at all a reason to buy.

it's much more about, you know, the way that it's validating its current role in the new tech economy, which we, sort of, knew already. so, again, i don't think it's a sell of the news. maybe it's a buy because of the capitulation on intel. at this point it seems much more about the dow trying to stay relevant. >> good stuff. back to you in a little bit. watching hims and hers after the bell. >> hims exceeding expectations three quarters in a row. shares most recently took a turn after the fda said wegovy and ozempic were available. that means hims would have to stop production of compounded version -- to be sold while it completes a secondary review. supply remains a big question mark heading into results today. investors will be looking at the glp revenues. it's a small fraction of revenue growth at the company. still the shares live and die on these headlines.

check out some of these recent swings i tracked. plus or minus double digits. piper sandler, one firm saying, it's a warning. this isn't -- there isn't much more room for an upside here. i'll hear from the company's cfo in a little bit and bring you more. >> brandon gomez to seema mody. >> unlike some of the big names nxpi has underperformed by a wide margin this year. up 3% versus the smh's 40% run. automotive remains challenged. texas trumts and on semiboth mentioned strength in china. earnings tonight followed by the company's analyst day on thursday where morgan stanley expects gross margins to be revised higher, we'll look out for that, scott. >> yes, we will. seema, thanks so much. that's seema modi. mike, take stock of the vix, if you would at 22. we talked about with chris v

verrone earlier, who suggested it was a little overdone at this level given what the backdrop looks like. >> you have to agree. statistically it's drastically overdone. it's juiced well above for example where the actual realized volatility of the index has been, the fact the s&p has been making new highs pretty consistently over the last several weeks, and it shows you it's really just very near term, right after the election, it's all people are willing to basically do is keep their positions, keep exposure to the market. but if you want to hedge against some volatility event, whether it's an indeterminate election result, whether it's some kind of contentious outcome, then you can buy some index volatility protection that way. so, everybody expects as far as, you know, casually speaking, everybody expects november and december to be the, sort of, tension release, rallying stocks, likely volatility gets, you know, kind of smashed

because there's not a specific thing that we're going to be looking at and fixating on to worry about. we'll see if that does come to pass. it might not be as perfectly smooth as all that, but it seems like that's the setup we have going into the election and the fed. >> what do you think -- fixated on what they're doing. >> it is true. and treasury volatility has really spiked. that could be one part of it. as chris was saying, though, credit spreads have been really tame. so, it's not really telling you about a macro event. it's really about repricing of the treasury, fed may cut expectations. i think treasury has rallied almost exactly where they needed to, so to speak, before getting out of hand. so, therefore yields come in with the help of the noisy soft jobs report on friday. and then today a little bit of a bid. it seemed like whatever the big move was over the prior couple of weeks, the market's taking some of that back. some of that, for example, in bang stocks today is going on. i don't think it's decisive.

i think if yields shot up from here, equity markets would probably love it. right now in this range, it seems okay, given the economic growth numbers tracking. >> i appreciate you, mike. thank you. that's mike santoli. we'll go right across the board -- [ bell tolling ] -- with the bell ringing here. i'll see you tomorrow. we've got a busy one on election day here in the united states. that bell marks the end of regulation. s&p -- capital corporation doing the honors at the nasdaq. the next session on election eve for the sectors, utilities a big loser, energy big winner, technology about flat, dow, s&p, nasdaq all losing ground. but small caps going out with gains. that's the score kcard on wall street. i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >>