demographics. >> what did it tell you? >> it just wrote -- it wrote that you can't say anything until 5:00 p.m., but you know all throughout the day there's -- you hear this inn innuendo, rumble about what the exit polls are showing. >> the exit polls aren't always right. >> they aren't, but it's probably starting now. >> right. that's a lot. first of all, make sure you go out and vote, and then make sure you join us tomorrow morning right here, 5:00 a.m. eastern time. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." we'll see you later. ♪ it is election day in america. millions lining up across the country to choose the 47th president of the united states. 80 million have already voted. much at stake. polls suggesting the race remains extremely close. good tooz morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. the future is steady with down

days for the s&p. the road map will begin of course, with the election waiting game. voting is under way. markets remain steady ahead of the open. >> plus the a.i. surge palantir shirs. after delivering a rosy outlook saying the company sees quote, unrelenting demand. >> it's too much. >> and boeing machinists set to return to work. they approved a new labor contract. the pay raise over four years, 38%. let's begin with election day in the markets. nice little stat to start the day, jim. stocks have closed higher. the last five presidential election days. >> that was a great stat. i was trying to figure out, is it this positive given the fact that we have -- i would say an unusual election. unusual, antipathy, david. not a congratulations among them. not a how are you doing? just basically one candidate attacking one another, and i think the story is -- >> well, one not talking about

the other directly, and then the other obviously -- i mean, for example, vice president -- vice president nominee vance yesterday called -- called the -- you see him there. the presidential nominee trash, right? >> yes. and then walz on the flip side didn't mention trump at all in his speech. >> let me just say right from the beginning because i know that there's -- puerto rico's been illusioned to what that -- this is waste management is what you buy. a fantastic quarter. >> garbage theme? >> blowout theme. the stock is high. a lot of people were shorted and they have been crushed. waste management. that's about as political as i want to get. >> you want to be long garbage? >> waste management handle s moe garbage than anybody. >> a macro? >> it's much more related to housing because that's where the big waste and trash is.

so i don't know. i think it's been a good stock. you can say there's -- there's that. >> there you go. >> right. whoever invokes trash the most, and says, someone's trash, you go with waste. now i will say if my friend said, listen. this election is about the referendum on trump then. harris wins, referendum on harris and trump wins. i like that because it presents us as being nonpartisan, which i like, and basically, carl, i think it's whoever is such a negative campaign, and whichever negative sticks, having been in the philadelphia area, i was longing for an ad, but it was -- they just took every commercial, every commercial. >> football was so painful. >> didn't lachlan murdoch even apologize to viewers in pennsylvania who have had to endure so much political advertising? >> you had to keep switching. at one point, i switched to the

giants/commanders game. >> it wasn't a bad game. >> no. the point is that one team kind of had it and it was garbage time. waste management. that's the theme. that's the theme of the morning's show is garbage. >> a bunch of desk knows. b of a is a good example and they argumented the consensus is you sell the donald trump rip, and you buy the harris dip. >> well, i also like the bofa piece about apple which i thought crystallized my thinking. which is you can buy apple because the justice department has people who like apple, but you have to sell it because they have 60% tariffs on china. i find that you can make cases for anything. what worries me is people actually take action on this stuff, what they may not realize is there's something else that's in play. earnings. now, it is true that earnings would be cut if trump's elected because this 60% tariff, they make everything there. they have to pivot to india,

mal malaysia, vietnam, and it's hard -- they do make a lot of stuff in india. >> but the other thing pointed out is tariffs would be the first order. taxes and expirations and things like that would be second order once you know more about the house and senate. >> true. people are unrealistic, david, about the tariffs. i mean, for instance, i happen to like bill newton very much. he runs this and he says, you can't make mexico if you are in milwaukee, but why should they be cast? the answer is it's a meat acts tax. it's not like hey. you know what? we're going to exempt hispanics. it doesn't work like that, right? >> and the tariffs on goods coming from mexico would be substantial. >> substantial. and i think that they're trying to -- >> i see them. 100%. >> what trump's trying to stop, steel coming in from mexico that's shipped from china.

this is something that was a tough quarter from cliffs and you can see this stock. this stock consolation trades with the polls, but when iowa in that seltzer poll which we now know is she's queen, whatever. >> yeah. >> when iowa's kind of -- >> the poll that came out this week. >> that stock went up 6. that's a good barometer. >> they would be substantially hurt if suddenly all the mexicans had a tariff on it. >> there's a belief that if you elected harris, the border would be more open. i don't know. the border's really closed. >> the border's kind of been closed recently, but certainly was not for most of the biden presidency. >> it was more closed this year than it was under a previous president. >> i want to know why they w waited so long. that said, what does that have to do with selling beer? >> because the plurality of beer that is sold by consolation is drunk by hispanics. so the thinking is more

hispanics come into the united states, therefore, there will be more people buying. >> i see. >> does that sound factious? the answer is absolutely not. >> the people selling beer is -- >> modelo. for another reason -- >> having to do with the cultural divides in our country. >> the political divide. carl, how is -- he's been so culturally divided, waste management. everything he does is right doubtdown the middle. >> he's done all this stuff. >> i'm all here. i have some interesting things. >> on palantir. >> no. if you want to get a read on the election, chesapeake county, virginia, new hampshire, and florida -- >> not bucks county? >> and delaware, they are all good tells. they're good tells on -- because they predicted, like, the last five elections. >> is delaware a suburb of philadelphia? >> pennsylvania and arizona are going to take a while.

maricopa county apparently has a two-page ballot. that could take a while. if you want to get a read on the house, that's lawler, and if he looks like he's going to lose, you get a better sense there. >> being registered in bucks county, you got five calls on saturday, seven cauglls on sund from pollsters. my wife talks to them. >> i'm used to getting door knock. >> they're incredibly nice, and i have friends who are poll minders who just make sure that everything's copacetic. >> poll minders. >> not coal miners. >> coal miner's daughter. >> oh, that's good. >> this was really fabulous. we have to go back. >> she was great. >> our senior washington correspondent eamon javers is here. he's here to discuss not just the election, but increasingly

the ground game in these last couple of days as we keep yet another eye on election security. >> yeah, you know, jim was just talking about the poll minders and it reminds me of my mother growing up was a judge of elections in philadelphia, and so i would go to the polling place every year and help move the voting booths around and help escort people in, and the elderly who needed an arm to lean on and all of, that and just watching that play out over the years just gives you such an appreciation for democracy at the ground levels that you are august about. this election is so weird for all the reasons we all know, especially for the reasons that you've got clkamala harris as t incumbent vice president, and it's almost like this is an election about donald trump, who is as familiar a figure as we have seen on the national stage ever in american history. he's the first three-time nominee since richard nixon and first president to try to come back after herbert hoover tried to do the same thing in 1940. did not work out for him. i'm thinking about my 18-year-old daughter this morning who's going to be going to the polling place to cast her first vote.

donald trump has been a candidate for president -- for president of the united states for half of her life. it just gives you a sense of how long trump has domestiinated ou national politics and today might be the end of that, or the beginning of a new chapter, trump. >> the first race, i'm sure you know this, since '76 where there has not been a bush, clinton, or biden on the ballot. >> right. just fascinating changes. we were talking a little bit about this on "squawk box" this morning. this country has been a 50/50 country in essence since about 2000 since that bush v. gore coin flip, and look how much the parties have changed. the democratic party is a very different party than it was back in 2000, you know, the cheneys are now on the side of kamala harris in this election. the republican party, so different than it was, you know, even four or eight years ago. you've got a populist working class republican party that in many ways is hostile to

corporate elites, and not sort of part of the chamber of commerce consensus anymore. that is a very different party, and yet we are still a 50/50 nation as we come down to election day today. the final nbc poll released over the weekend nationwide. it was 49-49. this could not be closer, and nobody has any idea where this is going to tonight which is why it's going to be fascinating to be with you, carl, as with you go through the evening hours and into the late night trying to figure out what it all means. >> i know we heard you mentioning dicksville this morning, which is a swing from 2020, although others have pointed out -- >> yep. >> they all voted for haley in the primary. >> isn't that fascinating? the haley voters may be coming home for trump. if you can make anything out of six votes, right? that's the only vote count we have it, and we'll try to parse it. haley voters may be coming home for trump. interesting that donald trump did not campaign with nikki haley, although she seemed to be signaling that she was willing to do that. he didn't take her up on that.

in which the gender gap is going to be an enormous problem for donald trump, you wonder if that was a tactical mistake by donald trump to not campaign alongside nikki haley, and here you see kamala harris last night in philadelphia embracing oprah win winfrey. she had lady gaga. the democrats have been rolling out celebrity after celebrity in my hometown in philadelphia. you had the cast of "the west wing" out over the weekend, and martin sheen walking the streets of my town where i grew up in philly trying to rally voters for kamala harris. the democrats are leaning on the celebrity factor as much as they can on their side. >> soo eamon, when i voted massachusetts years ago, there were people from nbc as soon as i walked out asking me who i voted for, and they subsequently wanted to know that. how do we know there hasn't been a very clever hedge fund that didn't do exactly what nbc did back in the days when i was there? >> i think that's possible. a massive resource, right?

how would you trade it? even if you were a hedge fund which had the best exit polling results in the world today, how would you trade, you know, overnight and in the morning to position yourself to benefit from it, you know, unless you could really know for sure what that electoral college vote was going to be? i don't think you would know how to trade those results even if you had some exquisite polling that nobody else has access to. >> that's great. that's true. >> this is tough. >> i was thinking about certain stocks, but eamon is right. the payoff is obscure. >> we will see a lot of you today. talk soon. >> yep. >> we'll be what you for our coverage. in the meantime, there's a ton of earnings we'll get to after the break. >> yeah. we have to talk palantir. it's a neck and neck situation with nvidia for the big ones everybody recognizes and it must be talked about because of simply shocking. >> we'll get to boeing as well.

the machinists of course, finfinal approved that tentative, and we'll get to palantir, and young qsr in a minute. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

it's our son, he is always up in our business. wit's the verizon 5gr home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation.

heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. palantir is surging in the premarket. the company posting a quarterly beat guide. alex cites what he calls unrelenting a.i. demand. this is what else he had to say on last night's call. >> given how strong our results are, i almost feel like we should just go home. you see every part of u.s. government including the white house, congress, defense, intel, beginning to enbmbrace the application of large language models in infrastructure. something that palantir's particularly specialized in, and we just -- we are really i think as a company, enjoying this

phase. instead of going into every meeting saying, oh, yeah. palantir's great, but their fearless leader is bat [ bleep ] crazy, you know, and he might go off to his commune in new hampshire and whatever they were saying, it's now, like, yeah. the products are the best and we have great products and so that's a really important shift, and that was the business strategy, and it really was done by others, and that has shifted our ability to get to market because most people don't want to resist, you know, they're not hating the player. they're playing with us. >> karp's always had a sharp tongue when it comes to the shorts, jim. >> ooi'm with him, okay? i can't take anymore. >> you're with him? >> i'm with him. i can't take it. >> he won you over? >> yeah. he's just too, like, against the grain. my favorite line, my favorite line -- i loved that. i was going to quote that, but we're in it together with you. besides making america even stronger and better and our allies stronger and better, and all of us more lethal.

david, he's maybe more lethal. >> lethal. >> i feel lethal. >> u.s. growth, what, 40%? >> 44%. how many times did they mention that? it's like a drinking game. >> and then 54% year over year growth in u.s. commercial revenue. >> yep. >> customer count up 77% year over year. >> he's great. >> these are numbers that get a stock -- get this company's market value above $100 billion. >> that said, jim and carl, i mean, the valuation and i'll just refer here to one analyst's note, and he's gotten it completely wrong, but when it comes to valuation of the stock, it is perhaps one reason why certain investors will just not wade into the shares. it's trading at two times the multiple of the next most expensive stock in our coverage, 31 1/2 times calendar year revenues. that doesn't give you pause? >> i told you it's a cold stock.

it's owned by individuals and it's owned by individuals because they're doing something km exceptional. they're saying, we're doing great. we're going to make the playoffs and be in the super bowl. get on board. carl, they are not like other companies. they run a conference call like a playoff game coach after the game saying how he feels. give me the rule of 40. i think that they may be a little bit like adam aaron, but not too much, but definitely they are the most promotional company. >> i was going to say, you know, one line here, we absolutely eviscerated this quarter. you don't get that kind of commentary often, and you usually like underpromise, overdeliver. >> i was going to say, i can't thank him. he took this. he's exciting. i mean, he makes the game interesting, and he's got individuals doing it, and his numbers back him up. he does have a lot of defense contracts. i have people in the -- i

have -- i know people in the pentagon who actually swear by this guy. that's another reason why i reluctantly -- i started racing the stock when i heard the individuals say, listen, jim, we're taking this one past nvidia. or what, david? what are they going to do to me if i didn't get him? >> nothing. although they have a lot of power. the lethal. so you should be careful. because he may just wear a t-shirt, but he's a dangerous man. karp. >> well, his defense stuff is apparently great. we don't really know what they have. we know that they have accelerated revenue growth. they have rules of 68. >> serious bodyguards too. the u.s. government absolutely demands that he be protected tauat all times. so when you see him, he's got guys all over you. that said -- >> he said he's a national treasure. >> this is generative a.i. being used in the enterprise in a real way. >> one thing that turned me off

was when i looked into them, they sent me a guy who was a commercial guy who was, like, listen. we dominate the cereal industry. i said, i want the pentagon. >> what happened to the days when the government was the last to figure out innovation? >> there's two governments i understand. there's the guys who want boots on the ground and the guys who want karp on the ground. those guys are winning, meaning you don't need individuals. you don't want to put people in harm's way and karp is about ruining the other guy. he wants to ruin whoever is against us. >> monetizing generative a.i. there's not that many use cases. this is the one. >> there's nvidia and palantir, and that's it. and i put them in the same sentence. >> it's high praise. > 'l praise. >>wel get cramer's mad dash ahead of the opening bell and look at futures on this election day in america.

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take a look at some s&p gainers this morning. we mentioned palantir and we'll get to emr. also in there though is dollar tree as we get to the ceo stepping down effective immediately on some health issues. we'll talk about that. they do reiterate the q3 guide,

the fiscal trdhi quarter guy. in the meantime, you can catch us any time, anywhere. just listen to "squawk on the street," the opening bell podcast. 6 6

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. all right, mad dash time. opening bell soon as well. a lot of earnings. amongst them? >> emerson was good, but i want to focus on dupont because they did a classic beat and raise. moved up the timeline of the split of three companies, and david, what i want to say is that you have electronics industrial which is really strong by the way. that was a semi, okay? you have water and protection, and china, very strong. they came in with water orders, but david, i want to know when you split it into three and you have one division that seems to be attracted to water and protection -- >> yeah. >> it's possible someone may say, i want that company while you are splitting up and i think that could happen. the excellent ceo and ed breen's s

successor. >> right. >> what has been the category? >> you have to tell me what the tax basis is so i understand that ramification, but sometimes there's a benefit to spinning first, letting it be there, and then knowing that there's an acquirer and letting that time period go by so you don't get the capital gains. >> that's a great point. >> it just depends. >> there's the opening bell. the big board attire doing the honors. at the nasdaq, it's movember. one hallmark of this week, goldman argues is just everyone bringing in risk. we closed yesterday right at the 50-day. >> yeah. i think you have to. i have a news story about bringing in risk and how hard it is to pick what you're doing. the justice department, jonathan cantor, i would like to start an

etf and here's why. everybody he goes after, and he's won a very good case, but stocks have gone higher, so if you are sitting there and thinking, you know what? i want to get out of these stocks, but keep the same antitrust and same thing, well, you know, those stocks, they had, like, i know that cantor would probably say, hey, alphabet stock, it's been zooming and i have been hardest on them. apple, you think i'm done? the stocks are over two-thirds. you have to be careful. >> does that work the same on the ftc? >> yeah, actually. amazon has been the one, and they had an unbelievable stock this quarter. if you are them, and you're hearing me karp so to speak about that, i think they would say, u, you know, jim, look at the stocks. we go after them, we're really trying to change their behavior, but the stocks have been great. so lay off. there's a degree of proof there, and it's a degree of those that were saying if trump wins, things will be better for these companies, but it's been hard to be better than what amazon has

had or that last quarter. >> right. not a surprise i suppose that bezos filed a couple of days ago to sell 16 million shares if that continues. >> yeah. you know what? when buffett sells bank of america and bezos sells this, there's usually a lid. the amazon quarter was so extraordinary there may not be a lid this time because that european number, europe is turning -- >> this has been your big thesis. >> oh my god, look. because you just keep hearing that europe is strong for all these companies. they need to be more aggressive. there are countries in europe, like germany that are doing well. germany has obscured these because they're so auto-related. >> yeah. >> but every other country, pick up, pick up. >> auto-related? >> are you going race? >> i could go a lot of places. race and xpi, but i'm going to go with this chemical company continuing to navigate

persistent demand weakness across markets such as paints, coatings, and construction as well as rapid and acute downturns in western hemisphere automotive and industrial segments. >> well, what's left? >> take a look at the stock, guys. it's down 19%. >> what a downer comment. >> they had a poor quarter, and they will to take actions they say commensurate with the current environment and to ththat end, they're cutting their dividend 95%, and that begins in the first quarter. >> that's more than estee lauder. >> 95%starting in the first quarter of next year as a result of dealing with detiererioration demand including western hemisphere automotive and industrial segments. the stock is losing 20%. that takes you to nxp, a big supplier to auto, which guided lower for the fourth quarter.

the revenue outlook $3.1 billion at the midpoint. 8% below the street. gross margin guidance up 57.5% is 160 basis points below cons consensus. the eps outlook is 14% below consensus, again for the fourth quarter where they do lower guidance, guys. this is another provider into automotive. >> auto and freight. those are the two recessions. there's a freight and auto, and these companies would say, we need what they have at ucb. we need aggressive rate cuts. so we have people if there's a november rate cut, they're hopeful, carl, a huge trucker needs rate cuts in order to get out of this freight recession. we have people in auto recession and freight recession. c

carvana is the only win nener i that segment. they sell on carvana. better never than late, is what i was thinking. >> mercedes cut their margin targets twice in q3. they race china down 29. >> you could have a 200% tariff on chinese cars and still be less than that. >> that's ultra luxury in china, ferrari. >> even though u.s. -- >> we make the point ndlessly, but it's $115 billion market value coming into today. i mean, you know, gm and ford together don't equal that. >> well, david, one company that's not involved with autos seems to be trading down here, a little more ag. archer daniels. >> i haven't. >> they've got the profit warning, but they also have something that i know that you're against. >> tell me. >> the restating of financials. >> don't like them. >> you always said, be careful of the restatement. >> bad side. >> optimal? >> suboptimal. >> they were never doing that good after, but, you know, this

is a sign, carl. i think that it's -- i would head out if i owned archer daniels. >> any details around that statement? >> i don't know if they have a handle on it. >> okay. >> they did say that -- they did say that it was a mixed and challenging quarter even if they hadn't had to restate. there's ample reasons to sell archer daniels, adm. i don't know. i would not -- i always find counting irregularities mie koe, and you have to let those stocks go, and move into something. >> what about tyson? they've all underperformed year to date. some badly. >> it's got that good yield, but it's just not enough. tyson's got that questionable management going on down there. even though -- look. if you want to own chicken -- >> questionable management. a little questionable. >> if you want to own chicken, you just own costco.

they can give you 2 million chickens a week. >> they got the chickens wasn't? >> yes, they do. not the brown egg. they got the white egg -- >> the white egg chickens? >> they don't want the -- i like the brown egg more than the white egg. >> absolutely, yes. >> are you a brown egg or white guy? >> i guess brown. i like the brown, yeah. >> emerson up 8. where are you with that, mr. negative? >> you know, why do you hate? >> can you just tell me why you favor stocks going down? can you please? on election day, can you just come clean? >> let me look for one that's going up. you're right. you want to tell us about emerson because it is going -- >> the raise, buyback, and then closing aspen at a good price. there's -- >> what? >> espen tech. it was a good quarter and i had a diskbragreement on them with t national instrument. they got it right. congratulations to them. it's a very, very good quarter and one of the best outlooks i've heard.

so they're redoing -- they're part of the redoing of the grid which i know you think is a very important thing. >> yes. the grid is very important. obviously we talked a lot about it yesterday with that unexpected ruling from firk that impacted many of the nuclear-related power names. >> should it be the natural gas stocks go up? because that's really -- that's what they're really involved in at data centers because they can't get enough. you used a term yesterday, david, that is not talked about enough. intermittent. >> yes. well, you know, solar and wind aren't 24/7. >> they're not baseless. >> that's right. >> people think you can do it. you can't. >> you do need to have at least -- to your point, something to back up there. >> europe does solar, but in germany, it's not very sunny in germany. >> no. interesting story in the journal today about a leading solar company in china. china by far is the leader in the world when it comes to solar, by far, but we've kept many of the -- of those companies out of our markets and

obviously prices here are far higher for solar panels as a result, and trying to incubate and protect the few that are producing here in this country, but they are far ahead of us. i mean, they build more solar capacity in a year in china than we have in our entirety. >> ahead of us in ev. they're behind us in pretty much everything else. >> we talk about china in both ways because there's a backup, but for what has been a significant edition of carbon-free energy production in that country. all right. i got one stock for you that's a company that i do follow somewhat closely, and i speak to the ceo occasionally. apollo, reported earnings. >> yeah. >> and they were a nice beat across the board. there was some focus as well on spread-related earnings, fee-related earnings up nicely. spread-related as well. there's the asset number.

that was up 150 odd billion over the last 12 months as they drive towards that trillion dollar mark. of course, the blackstone has passed. i think brookfield right around there as well, but there was some question because they were not expected necessarily, burg bur particularly given a declining rate environment, to have sequenceshal growth in spread-related earns. they did. they went from 710 million to 806 million, and they grew more than anticipated. i have a few people trying to weigh in here. you can't really read that. it's very clear, isn't it? they just did a better job, is all you can say, finding better paying assets and so while some were questioning at least early on that spread-related earnings number, the 13 basis points seems to be better on just

incremental capital deployed, which is not a lot, 13 basis-point i want mprovement, adds up. there's apollo global, i think at 830. >> intel? >> private credit, obseviously key business. >> anything on intel? >> i haven't heard anything. >> we've got got to get something on that. i told you they've bottomed and now -- >> it's a reuters story. >> some are interested in buying it. >> or being a part of an investment. >> you can't bet against intel here. there's too much activity. >> i can't believe i'm hearing -- continuing to hear this out of. did you whhear what he just sai? you can't bet against intel? >> jim cramer from two years ago? >> he couldn't even -- two weeks ago. >> the stock was at 50. >> that's true. >> the quarter was not bad. >> great call. >> you're going to be able to

bottom and call the bottom on this is i think hard to imagine. >> no, i'm right, and what i like about this is gelsinger was like alex kamrp, and now he coms like gandhi. no braggadocio. >> he's not nothing to brag about. he's got nothing. just shut up and execute. >> he does it, but, you know, honestly, there were people -- >> the problem sit took years. >> there were real companies buying that, and you've got david's pals, the private equities. >> unlike starbucks where you really were more interested in management change, you're happy to see him stay? >> i think that -- remember. it's a win-win. if eqqualcomm wants to buy them and my people -- >> your people? are your people good people? top people? >> i misspoke. i know the corporate people and i know the people who could be involved with the qualcomm trade. this is for real.

>> it would have to be at the urging or at least the acceptance of the u.s. government and i'm not sure what do you with the fabs. it's not clear qualcomm wants them. >> that's interesting. >> then you partner with who? tsmc? >> commerce department. >> so you're calling a winner here in the election? did i just hear that? >> the winner is waste management. we've already gone there. >> that's what he's going with. he's sticking with it. waste management. >> normally i hate guy karp to go back to him, but when i read the conference call, i think if you work like karp's mom, you would be, like, valid. >> palantir is leading the s&p by far. a couple of restaurant dnames, dw qsr and yum. taco up four, and others. >> a yum is seemingly very happy with itself. i would say that it was a good quarter because kfc was good and

taco bell was good, and pizza hut wasn't horrible. that was something important to see. i don't know if you have been to pizza hut lately -- >> i vice phaven't. >> i would skip it. >> i don't go to any of the chains because i point out there are a plethora of amazing pizza places right here in new york city. that i do fre kwquent by the wa. because i love pizza. >> they are using a.i. finally, remember i told you that they were saying, listen. why aren't any of these rest raunl ra -- rest rauestaurants using us? you go through the drive-through, and there are languages and dialects and slang, and so what happens is they're hopeful that you don't necessarily have to have a person on the drive-through, but mcdonald's is planning that those people also have other jobs.

don't think you lose a person. you don't -- don't get more money, but i think that -- i want to see what burger king is going to do with this. they don't have the $5 burger. >> not yet. >> we'll see. >> it will. >> popeye's down three. >> i was surprise at that because they have been spending a lot of money to get that right, and they haven't been able to deliver. popeye's had multiple years of amazing numbers, and they have -- they've disappointed me with popeye's. >> how about cummins all-time high which is a china story that is unlike a bunch of others? >> yes, but also cummins makes these -- i had them on. they are really smart, and they own a business that is so fabulous, it's data center, backup engines. so the dead battery, battery powered, your data center does not go down if you have a cummins edgngine as your backup. isn't that a fabulous business? >> it is. >> right? >> yes. it's an important business.

>> we also got the upgrade for eden today at bernstein. >> yeah. now that's another data play, a data center play, and we own that for the travel trust, and that was a great report by bernstein. another one is dover and data center is back, and emerson -- >> did they ever go away? >> there was a couple of days where people felt like it was overdone. >> a couple of days. it's been a few years, but a couple of days in there. it's over. >> people felt there was too much stuff going on with data center, and amazon blew the numbers away and people shut up about data center. >> not that much of a reach, and they say it'll be $300 billion for the hyperscalers. it's a pretty big number. i don't know how much is going to data centers. >> i have tom jordan from the very good natural gas and oil company. he said the difference is the utilities trying to supply. >> yes.

>> they can't. there's just not enough supply. they have to do something about it. emerson really move here. grid, grid, grid. >> you can't just create new energy -- new power supply overnight. it takes a while. these nuclear deals that we have talked about are years in the making for the small, modular reactors. >> they have both the turbans and nuclear if you do think that they'll take a role. 3032, don't get ahead of yourself. >> you say turban, i say turbine. i say nuclear, and you say nuclear. >> larry likes turban. stetson and turban? a hat division. no, it's turbine. >> getting a lot of services data. we'll get pmis to start with, rick santelli. >> this is the first batch of services and composites from s&p. we'll have more at the top of the hour. these are final reads.

mid-month poll. 54.1. we lose a couple of tenths, but there's a couple offed goo news here. it's the 21st consecutive moon o -- month over 50, and it's clustered. if you look at the services final, 55.3% gets downgraded by three-tenths to 55.0%. that's also the 21st consecutive month over 50%, and it's the fifth consecutive number with a 55 handle. so they're both clustery, not bad data. doesn't seem to be moving the market much. yields are up a couple of basis points, pretty much across the entire curb, and don't forget after a week, uk tenure, yields move up. we'll monitor our tens and that will be auctioned off. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break.

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home depot co-founder bernie marcus has passed away at the age of 95. he was the son of russian/jewish immigrants. he went on to team up to establish what has become the nation's largest home improvement retailer. marcus served as home depot's ceo, he was the first ceo, and was a major public and campaign donor. the company says the entire home depot family is deeply saddened by his death. born in 1929. >> what a great man. i had the good fortune to meet him a couple times. incredibly humble, wise. it remember when they first came to new york there was a meeting, i went to talk to him and i kept thinking, he can't be the head of home depot.

he was too kind. he was fired back in '78 and he and arthur blank then went and founded home depot. it was not easy. but i just want to emphasize that people should go read -- i love capitalism if you want to know what an amazing man bernie marcus was. he was truly one of the greats. >> remarkable life story, actually got into harvard medical, fell in love with retailing as a pharmacist, and the rest is history. >> oh, my. the umility, you know, the failure. he failed and he came back. great american story. >> bernie marcus was 95.

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jim, what's on mad tonight? >> texas roadhouse is on. this is really a fabulous company and they have a great $11 dinner and they understand the zeitgeist of america. i've been begging for these guys to come on. >> we'll have some dinner here tonight. >> yes, we will. we'll stay late. actually, i find it quite

enjoyable working with you at night. i've done it a couple times before and i can't wait. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time, followed by our election coverage beginningt 00nd a7: a going all night into the early morning hours of tomorrow. dow is up 185. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for

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good tuesday morning. happy election day. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber. live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. look at stocks, they are gaining this morning. the s&p up 0.8%, so we've got a nice rally. nasdaq up a full percent, so it is tech driven. the dow is up 200 points. take a look at treasurys, they've been moving in anticipation of this election. the ten-year yield is a little bit firmer today, so treasurys are selling 4.3% on the

ten-year, so still elevated, and continues to creep higher since we got the last fed meeting. remember, there's a fed meeting on thursday as well and a decision expected. the fed expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers. shares of palantir soaring after reporting a top and bottom line beat, raised guidance. the ceo alex carp writing in the release, quote, we absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting ai demand that won't slow down. the stock is up 20.2%. dollar tree ceo abruptly stepping down overnight citing health challenges, though the company did reiterate its third quarter forecast, shares higher following the news. and then we're watching shares of djt, of course, surging, now up more than 130% over the last month as voting around the country gets under way. this has been one of the key trump trades. >> one of the key numbers of the

week, let's get to rick santelli. >> you see the equity markets, they're on their highs from yesterday in the dow, and rates are moving higher as i speak. ism services, the pmis are a bit better than expected in certain metrics. if you look at the service index itself, 56.0%, higher sequentially than 54.9%, almost three points higher than expected. best level since april of '22. if you look at prices paid, it's moving down. that's a good thing. 59.4% last month, 58.1, and it's the lowest level since august of this year and it is moving in the right direction. if you look at services employment, 53.0%, much better than expected. it pops up over 50%, last month it was 48.1%, that's the best since august of '23. if we look at the new orders component, 57.4%, this one

sequentially lower and that's not a good thing. 57.4% follows 59.4%, and it's the weaker since basically a month ago. yields did move up on some of the strength we saw and with regard to prices paid, we did make a bit of progress. if you summarize today, maybe the most important issue that we have in front of us is that we continue to see yields, as s sarapointed out, we're about four basis points away. that close was the highest since the first couple days of july. don't forget, 42 billion tens hit the public in an auction, second leg of 125 billion of coupon supply. it's all yours. >> thank you. we'll look for demand indications later this afternoon, rick. thank you very much. so on this election day,

people vote on the economy, right? so decided to make a map of unemployment, just basically how the jobs market looks in swing states. we picked the seven swing states that will determine the election to compare september 2024 unemployment rates versus january 2020, to see who is in better shape and worse shape. two outliers, michigan higher unemployment than where it was, 4.5%. that's elevated. nevada, too, i would call out, 5.6% unemployment rate. most everybody else is either in the same spot like north carolina, georgia, or better. wisconsin has a low unemployment rate and so does pennsylvania relative to the rest of the country, which the average now is 4.1% unemployment. obviously it matters where your county is, where your industry is, and how you feel. but that's the snapshot. the other key economic indicator that people are feeling and

paying attention to is inflation. how do the battleground states fare on inflation then versus now? i would say mostly lower, especially in places like arizona where the latest inflation rate drops down to 1.2%. there's georgia below 2%. this is compared to january 2020, where we had inflation rates starting to move up. nevada also pretty good. if you look at north carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin, that's where there's a little bit higher inflation rates. but just in general versus the rest of the country, but still not in a bad spot to compare to where they were. what this doesn't capture, necessarily, guys, is the cumulative impact. >> the change. >> right, the change in prices that we all feel at the grocery store. for instance, more people are buying private label groceries instead of brands because they're cheaper because the prices are 20% to 30% higher in the grocery aisle than where we were in 2020 and that certainly

takes a toll. the other chart i wanted to mention because we're talking about tariffs and there's a lot of threats of tariffs, especially on the trump side, it's interesting, morgan stanley looked at those most imposed. obviously china is at the top of the list. china's stocks are vulnerable, for instance, if trump wins, 39% by market distribution in terms of how much they're affected. look at a lot of our trading partners are going to feel it if he wins and follows through with his trade policy. one of the most consistent policies, i would say, from him throughout the campaign cycle. >> sara, obviously inflation is going to play an important role in this election, or it has, and certainly if former president trump becomes president again, it may very well be because many voters -- >> they feel it. >> -- feel it. we talk about it every day, but i'm curious to get your take. how much really is attributable,

do you think, to the current administration versus, obviously, coming out of the pandemic and/or the failure of the fed to perhaps act when it thought it was transitory? >> i think there's no question that the current administration when they came in, they came into an economy that was really starting to heat up and they poured $2 trillion in extra stimulus on that. in hindsight, that was probably not necessary and probably exacerbated -- >> the american rescue plan. >> the american rescue plan that went into states and counties and buildings and child tax credits, and it was extra. we had trillions of stimulus during the trump administration. that was to try to rescue an economy that was frozen. when the economy came out of that, there was so much pent-up demand for jobs, for services, for hospitality. >> you had supply chain issues that goods were not available. >> and when that normalized, all of that, that was the original sort of inflationary boom.

but the current administration adding that extra $2 trillion -- i mean, the trillions of dollars, we say this -- >> you talked to yellen at the time and the whole notion was avoiding economic scarring. we hear about bounceback jobs. there's no guarantee those jobs were coming back. >> that's why they did it. >> the extra money was insurance. >> but there's no question that it was a lot of extra federal spending that contributed to inflation. i think most economists will tell you that and you can directly point your finger at the administration on that policy. that and, you know, some necessary structural reform that they did, like the chips act, the infrastructure act, all that was passed, but it's all money going into this economy. >> the chips act, to be fair, i don't think much of that is yet to be allocated. >> no, but what it has seen -- in spending, building, it really started to juice some areas of the economy, the signal of that. so that can all be inflationary. was it necessary and did a lot

of republicans back it? sure. it's not just on the administration. i think the reason the u.s. is outperforming the world, besides the fact that we have animal spirits, good companies and consumers that spend, we had a lot of federal spending and fiscal spending thrown at the problem. and that has been inflationary. now, the fed has done a good job, they fought it. >> a little late. >> better late than never, i think. they thought it was transitory. we thought it was the supply chain. it wasn't just the fed that thought that. most economists thought that. i don't think you can deny that powell has done a good job since then and we're in an economy -- what were services? >> best back-to-back since early '23. >> we're a services economy. this is not an economy that's on the brink of recession or necessarily even a soft landing in some parts of the economy. >> what's amazing is the gasoline futures closed yesterday lower than they were ten years ago to the date. gas prices have been a huge

tailwind for the consumer. >> yeah, that's helpful for the administration, though we spend more per wallet on groceries than gas. so that's the counterargument there. >> it will get cut in half from here. >> down 50%. meantime, the vice president and former president trump making their final pitches to voters in swing states. eamon javers is tracking the race to the finish line. >> good morning. you guys are so smart to talk about this idea of inflation, and especially through the lens of prices, not through the inflation rate. because prices, that's where voters feel the inflation when they go to the grocery store, out to the restaurant and pick up the check and they say, whoa, what is this? i'll give you another one, and that is housing costs. diana olick was on the air talking about housing and how unaffordable it's gotten to buy a house. even rents are much higher than they were four years ago. and that's another touch point where consumers really feel the housing price and they feel that

as inflation and it provokes some resentment toward the current administration. my guess is politically there are buyers and sellers in a housing market. some sellers are benefiting and might be thrilled by high prices. my guess is politically there are more buyers out there, frustrated, who can't get into the market than there are happy sellers who are selling for huge prices they thought they would never get. so politically i think housing is another one you can add to that pile of challenges for kamala harris in making the argument to american voters today that they're better off than four years ago. >> i'm curious, so clearly the economy is front and center, and also this issue of reproductive rights. vice president harris, she ran on it. what do the numbers look like for women in terms of par anticipation in elections normally and whether they could swing the vote? >> normally women are more than the majority. don't quote me, i think the number is 52% for female voters

in elections generally. i think the expectation is we'll check the exit polls and we might see a bigger number this time around. there's a question over the iowa poll we saw over the weekend, whether or not women in iowa in particular are motivated around abortion because they've got a new restrictive abortion policy in that state that might be contributing to the blowout number we're seeing in terms of the gender gap for kamala harris. that could be a difference maker today, too. so you talk about, is it the economy, is it social issues, is it the anger and division that we have in the country? in an election this close, it's every single thing that's going to come down to making the difference. and we just have no idea where this is going to land, which is why it's going to be so fascinating to watch it play out through the evening and early morning hours tonight. >> which we're going to do tonight with your help. we'll see you in a bit. let's find out how the street is positioning for the election. our next guest says beware of some of the initial market reactions and lays out trading

scenarios if either trump or harris win. he says currency in gold might see moves, with the harris win maybe clean energy returns could be higher. citi u.s. equity strategist joins us. happy election day. good to have you. >> great to be here. >> you've got 20 trades in this note today. what are the ones you're thinking about the most? >> what i'm watching most closely, to be quite honest, some of the basics, we're watching how energy and trading and banks are trading and i think small and large cap is another telling trade we need to keep an eye on here. and all of them kind of -- you look at the 20 in total, they're all giving you mixed reads on the setup going into this, which is what's made the last month's trading so interesting. we're arguing that you've seen it less in equities in terms of potential election outcomes, but where you've seen the trump trade unfold has been more in rates, currency, and potentially in gold. >> is the consensus that you

sell a donald trump rip and you buy a harris dip? >> that's our view. now, the spin here is pretty straightforward when you think about it. in our view, the s&p 500 is fully fairly valued around current levels. you're 24 times trailing, 22 times forward. what we're getting at here is that we understand that there's the animal spirits that come with trump more pro-business, got that. but you're starting point is a fairly extended valuation circumstance predicated on very strong earnings growth, follow-through into 2025. our concern is that with that setup, you go into a trump win and you introduce tariffs into the discussion, now to the earlier point on supply chain constraints, we've got something similar to that unfolding. what ends up happening is that the '25 growth expectations we think become more suspect as we navigate tariff actions. >> you're tying supply chain disruptions or, i guess, linear to tariffs? >> it's the same impact.

we have to start looking at every company in terms of the path through, what they're going to be able to eat themselves of gross margin versus pass through. and all of it potentially plays into this -- trump tariffs has more inflationary spend. i don't go down that path so strongly. i'm more of the view what it does do is create uncertainty around the earnings projections. >> i feel like there's more of a wild card on a harris win. because the trump trade has been what's been in the market. we've seen glimpses of it, higher long-term yields, consumer discretionary gets hurt a little bit because of tariffs. what about a harris win? i'm not fully -- are you clear on what the economic policy would look like as it pertains to different sectors of the market at this point or do we have to wait for her appointments to signal whether she's going to be moderate or not? >> essentially, the way we first modelled it is that if it's harris and sweep, then you would probably have a higher chance of

corporate tax rates moving higher, and that's a very clear path towards earnings degradation going into 2026. >> harris/dem sweep, the least likely scenario. >> so when you go harris and split, and it becomes right now versus the trump tariff setup, the east onerous. so the presumption, is there a trump win priced into markets and you get a harris split, our view is that you see the market pull back. but from a fundamental perspective, we're more inclined to want to buy into that. >> tax policy, a lot of it will depend on divided government. in other words, keep an eye on the house and whether it goes republican to democrat. >> correct. so essentially what can you get done in a split congress. maybe you can nudge tax rates up a little bit, but probably not the 21% to 28% that was sort of the platform position in the broader harris policy approach.

>> it's been argued that of the four scenarios, sweep either way, split either way, three of them are stock bullish. would you agree? >> mostly, for the most part. but, again, you have to be sensitive -- our view is to try to steer clear of the social issues that may end up influencing the outcome. my role is much more fundamentally focused. so when you look at the fundamental influences at work, that's the way we're thinking about it. it really comes down to trump and tariffs and harris and taxes. >> the tariffs being a more immediate function. >> more immediate because you can get things done for a '25 impact. any tax changes are probably more likely associated with tcga, so they become a '26 influence. our modeling going back to harris and taking both, sort of a blue sweep, was that you could see 26 earnings expectations go from current consensus of plus

12% down to 5%. it's that magnitude that you would have to begin to price in. now, you have to kind of go back to how does this really work. well, you price it in. then once you've got your new normal, you're off on running on traditional fundamentals again. that's where i think we are with the tariffs and the tax issues. >> that's why this week is going to be so influential. scott, thanks. good to see you. >> nice, broad rally. every sector higher. as we head to break, here is our roadmap for the rest of the hour. housing affordability, as mentioned, a key issue for voters in battleground states. we're going to take a closer look at the numbers and what's at stake. plus, 25 years since that historic microsoft ruling calling the company a monopoly. how tech can fare under either presidential candidate. wealthy erans amicare leaving the u.s. in record numbers. where are they looking to go? we'll talk about that with all sectors green as "squawk" continues in a moment.

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(diver yells) (shark roars) - whoa. (driver gasps) (car tires screech) (pedestrian gasps) (both panting) (gentle breeze) - [announcer] eyes forward. don't drive distracted. it broke overnight the boeing strike is over. phil lebeau has the latest. >> not much reaction in shares of boeing, they're fractionally lower, i think in part because many people thought, eventually this strike is going to end, it's not going to go on forever. and it is in fact ending with 59% of the machinists who voted approving a four-year deal. here is the president of the machinist union talking about this strike and the implications

it's had for his union. >> this is a success, this is a win. it was hard bargaining on both sides and there always is hard feelings. we'll get through it and we'll get back to building airplanes. >> all right, so what's next for boeing? production resumes tomorrow, but not everybody is going to be back at work tomorrow. gradually they'll all get back into the plant by early next week. it will be gradual ramp in production. the boeing ceo putting out a statement saying the company still has much work to do and the investors, they want to see how quickly boeing can really turn things around when it comes to free cash flow. it's not going to happen overnight. they're going to have negative free cash flow, the guidance for the fourth quarter negative 4.2 billion. the company has said we expect to be negative through 2025. some analysts are expecting it to be about $6.3 billion. in 2026, they are expected to swing to positive free cash flow somewhere in the range of $7 to $8 billion. as you take a look at shares of

boeing versus the s&p 500, this chart says it all. by the way, this contract is expected to cost boeing $1.1 billion over the next four years. but the good news is, guys, for them, they have certainty in terms of their cost and production, and, again, things will begin gradually starting tomorrow. >> phil, i wanted to ask you about the election, and speaking of unions, auto workers, they're in so many of these key battleground states, including michigan. where does the industry, the companies and their unions and the folks you talk to stand on issues like tariffs? are they supportive? >> they're worried about tariffs. i should say it two ways. most in the industry believe something has to be done with regard to protecting them from chinese automakers coming into this country. so in that regard, they agree with the tariffs that are already in place. in fact, i've talked with a number of executives that said, look, it's got to go higher.

because where they're at right now, the 100% tariff, if you really want to come into this country and sell automobiles if you're a chinese automaker, the 100% is not going to stop you. in that regard, i think they're on the same page, whether with donald trump or kamala harris. the second question is with regards to tariffs and mexico production. that's a stickier equation because so much production is down in mexico, and if trump is re-elected to become president again, then the question becomes, what does he do with usmca? that opens up a can of worms. you've got a wide range of opinions within the auto industry about whether or not that would be a smart move to put some tariffs in effect down in terms of that production. >> phil, thank you. not such an obvious one when it comes to the industry, as trump has campaigned saying he wants to see the michigan miracle come back. thank you very much. speaking of transports,

fresh numbers out of ferrari, revenue coming in lighter than expectations. share is still an outperformer, though giving back almost 7%. after the break, housing affordability in battleground states compared to the last election cycle. we've got stats for you. it's not pretty.

housing affordability, a key issue for voters, in especially the battleground states. diana olick has more on that and how much prices have increased. >> 40% of early voters said housing affordability influenced their choice, with a larger share of harris than trump voters saying it was a factor. let's look at how affordability has changed in the last four years. first, the own versus rent equation. in november 2020 it was cheaper to own than to rent a home in the vast majority of the country. that's flipped on its head. home ownership is much more expensive, due to home prices, with the mortgage rates and then of course the sudden migration.

home prices about 45% higher than they were in 2020. now, rents also rose in that period, but they have been coming down recently due to the oversupply of apartments. so let's go to the battleground states. the share of income needed to own a home today has at least doubled since 2020 in four out of the seven. arizona has seen the smallest change. now, these are the states, though, where it is least affordable to own a home. georgia is not far behind. on the rent side of that, north carolina saw the biggest jump in the rent burden, while nevada's rent burden actually came down. both harris and trump agree housing costs are too high. harris has proposed building 3 million new housing units with an expansion of existing tax credits and new tax credits. she's also called for a home buyer tax credit as well as rent caps. trump is less specific, but has called for opening more federal lands for housing and cutting back regulations to make building easier.

t trump has also said he'll lower mortgage rates, but presidents don't set interest rates. >> what is the right way to get at supply? can the government do that, or is it the deregulation to incentivize builders to do it? >> it's both, deregulation so that you can get more supply into the system, especially in states that have tight construction regulations. and it's incentives to the builders. developers will tell you right now they can't pencil affordable housing. but if they get more tax incentives to do it, they're more likely to build. >> diana olick watching housing today, an important policy inflection point. let's get a news update with silvana hanao. >> good morning to you. two federal judges denied texas and missouri's requests to bar the joist from sending observers to polling places. both states asked the judges to intervene to prevent the decades-old practice. the doj is sending more monitors than ever this year, with

personnel in 86 jurisdictions and 27 states, citing a heightened atmosphere of threats against election workers. the fbi is warning that a news clip claiming to be from the agency telling people to vote remotely is fabricated. the fake video which features the fbi's insignia falsely claims there is a high terror threat at polling stations another one is circulating making claims of rigged inmate voting. the fbi did not identify the source of the video. and key ports on canada's west coast are shut down for the first full day today. workers went on strike yesterday after a negotiating deadline passed. the strike includes the port of vancouver and prince rupert, where approximately 20% of u.s. trade arrives. back to you. >> silvana, thanks. speaking of the election, a reminder that tonight cnbc is live all night long. we will get the results as we roll in. we'll get reaction from some of

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stocks holding steady here, with a nice rally, in fact. up 0.8 for the s&p as voting gets under way for the 27th president of the united states. our next guest gaming out various scenarios, saying stocks exposed to a republican win may not benefit to the same extent they did in 2016. if democrats win, many recent market moves could unwind. joining us, morgan stanley head of u.s. public policy research. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> i'm sure you've been in high demand lately from investors. >> i've been busy enough. >> there's a conventional wisdom that if trump wins, and especially if he gets a sweep, that's good for the markets. if she wins and it's a divided

government, it's good for the markets. a democratic sweep is bad for the markets. is that too simplistic? >> i think so. i think a lot of conclusions about what happens at the index level are simplistic because there's so many unknowns with like the post-election policy path, how it's sequenced, how severe it is, and you can see into that what you want. i think there's probably more signal at the sector level. so you've seen, i think, as prediction markets have kind of moved in favor of trump over the last few weeks, you've seen some of the sectors that should do better in a trump win scenario, and that makes sense, but it means that if trump wins there's probably not as much near-term performance there. some of the stuff that has been weaker, like consumer retail in brands, unperceived tariffs, that's the kind of thing that maybe does better on a harris win. but that, to me, is kind of where the real signals are. if you're leaning into a specific outcome for the index, there's a good chance you're

going to be wrong. >> what else would a harris win mean for the market and economy, especially in a divided government? the president has power over foreign policy, trade, immigration. so what does that look like? >> so, i think a harris win in a lot of ways is defined by the things that wouldn't happen if trump were to win. so, you're not necessarily going to see a lot of new tariffs. you're probably not going to see substantial new immigration curbs beyond what's happened. those are two things that would have been growth challenging that harris wouldn't necessarily bring to bear. and a harris win comes with smaller deaf fit outcomes for 2026 because there's less tax extensions and they want to bring new revenue to the table. i think where you could see the impact is in fixed income markets where there's been a breather lately. but there has been a move to higher yields and steeper curves. some of that could happen in a harris win scenario.

>> it sounds like you're suggesting there is asymmetry where potential pump policies a -- trump policies are out of the money than harris. is the market chasing that because those outcomes could be more extreme? >> i think that's probably true. i think it's also probably that over the last few weeks when you saw prediction markets and you saw a lot of other measures kind of showing that perhaps trump was going to do better, there's a lot of kind of pricing in of perceived trades of sectors that do better under a republican win scenario. some of that has come off because we had a weekend of mixed polling and some observations in the other direction. i think we're going into this event a little more balanced than we were on friday because of that. we got some good reminders in polls that basically polling errors can go in either direction, either candidate could be undercounted here. so while i think we're going in with a little bit better balance, on net there's probably a little more probability baked into the market with the idea

that trump is going to win relative to harris. >> fanny and freddie, do you have anything to do? it's been a key trump trade, obviously the idea that they would be taken out of conservatorship under a trump administration. they didn't quite get to it the last time, when the secretary was unable to get there. >> i think it's the fair reading that the probability of policy changing goes up considerably if trump were to win. and even so in -- you probably need a sweep scenario to really clear the path. it's a major legislative lift, a major regulatory lift. in the harris win scenario, it's not to say that it's impossible, but far less likely. so i think that's probably the right read if that's the way the market is reading it. >> how much money do the tariffs bring in if he goes with what he plans? >> well, some of the estimates out there, if you do 10% on all incoming imports -- >> and 60% on china. >> yeah, $300 or $400 billion.

these are static numbers. when you say we could collect $300 or $400 billion in tariffs, what you're not accounting for, what about when people change their behavior, there's less of a base to tax and therefore those revenues could come down. so it's potentially a pretty big p pool of revenue but we don't think the blanket tariff scenario is the most likely outcome. there's tariffs across the geography that could be instituted, but you probably need congress to sign off on something like a blanket tariff. so if you don't have that, you're going to be targeting china, you're going to be targeting europe, potentially targeting mexico, but not necessarily the whole world. >> okay, michael, thank you very much for joining us. some of the key policies that investors are paying attention to. as we head to break, keep your eye on chinese-related stocks today. the country's benchmark index hitting highs after upbeat economic data overnight and

hopes of more stimulus there. plus, 25 years to the day since a federajue lel dgrud microsoft was a monopoly. what tech policy could look like under a trump or harris presidency after this quick break.

it's election day in america and traders and investors are looking ahead towards those big results. is there anything that history can tell us about how markets fare after elections are done d d dusted? anare there assets that are well positioned regardless of those outcomes? we're going to tackle those questions and others in our market navigator segment later today on "power lunch," 2:00 p.m. eastern time. (vo) this season, try opendoor's turducken of offers.

at the center is our all-cash offer. then comes the option to list for more. all wrapped in the certainty of a simple sale. this holiday, sell your home your way with opendoor. as you know, it is election day. check out the tech sector over the past four years. nearly doubling since biden took office, about 23% of stocks in s&p tech have more than doubled in that time. of course, led by nvidia, supermicro. it has been 25 years since

that historic antitrust ruling against microsoft. tech regulations, of course, are back in focus. google is not just getting scrutiny from the doj for its anti-competitive behavior, but in fact was found liable by a judge, although we've got a while to go to find the remedy. our next guest says a change in the white house could mean a shift significant. joining us is attorney general in charge of the antitrust division. you know, i am curious what your thoughts are if trump were to be elected, what would happen to some of the current cases, such as the one against alphabet, or what it would mean for broadly for antitrust enforcement? >> thanks, david, for having me. we don't have a lot of historic precedent, but that settlement 23 years ago in the microsoft case, that's when the settlement was entered, was something that

the george h.w. bush administration negotiated, very quickly after taking power. and the courts had affirmed the justice department theory that microsoft had misbehaved, had behaved badly. and the settlement according to most economists and people who follow the field didn't really do much to change competition in the operating system market. so there would be the opportunity for president trump to put in new leadership that would affect the google case and other cases pending at the justice department. personnel is policy, and so that person or the attorney general and the aag, those choices are going to vary. >> there's generally a belief, as i'm sure you know, bill, that if trump becomes president, you will have more of an open door in terms of negotiating mergers.

obviously, you can focus on particular deals that might get opposition, but generally speaking, do you agree with that? the doj's enforcement will be gone and the idea that there will simply be a more lax view of consolidation. >> conn is entitled to stay on at the ftc, not necessarily as chairman, but at the ftc until a successor is confirmed by the senate, and i don't know how long that's going to take. but there could well be and certainly would be a republican designated from among the sitting commissioners to take over as chair. so, we don't know what he's going to do, but he has suggested project 2025, has suggested there's going to be personnel housecleaning. there's going to be a dramatic

cut in the number of people who work in the government, and that would include ftc and antitrust at doj. so there is an opportunity here for there to be significant changes, and a more open, tolerant policy twoward merger enforcement. >> there's been a suggestion that elon musk would come in in a trump administration to try to make the government more efficient. i do wonder if there's room for consolidation, like, why do we have doj, antitrust and ftc, and if there's room for some sort of easier, less bureaucratic process that might make that more efficient. >> it's an historic an omaly. we're one of the few countries in the world that have shared antitrust jurisdiction between two different agencies. for the most part, people who have studied it, said it's going to take too much time and be too inefficient to move toward a consolidation. right now these two agencies do

not duplicate each others' efforts, they divide up responsibility. so a merger either as reviewed by the ftc or the antitrust division of doj and challenged if appropriate. you do not have overlap in terms of the activities there. so, i doubt there would be a move to consolidate, but who knows. it is a wide open playing field if donald trump is elected. >> you know, if vice president harris is elected, i think the assumption habit would be more of the same. but i've heard plenty of people in our wall street community who believe she would also move to replace over time lena conn or the doj as well. what are you hearing in that community in terms of the possibility were harris to win that there still would be some change? >> i've certainly heard the public calls by some major donors and friends up on wall street hoping for that result.

i don't think it's likely to happen, that there will be replacement of the leadership, particularly in the near term. part of the harris message has been, you know, competition is important, price gouging is something we need to worry cali attorney general, and i was the assistant attorney general for anti-trust, and she was doggone tough on consolidation, particularly in the hospital and health care areas and brought a number of cases and also took on wall street, the great financial crisis of 2008/2009, the whole mortgage-backed lending fiasco. she was a leader on that. so i suspect economically the biden/harris approach is likely to be the harris/walz approach. >> bill, always appreciate your taking time for us. thank you. >> thank you.

always a pleasure. coming up next hour, jason furman is with us. we'll get some of his election predictions. quick reminder, we are live all night as we get reaction from some of the biggest nesam in business. we're back in a moment. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects.

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no matter who wins today's presidential election, one thing is clear, wealthy americans are looking to potentially set up shop in other countries at record levels. robert frank joins us with more. >> we always hear this threat, i'm going to leave the country if so-and-so and elected. this time the wealthy are taking action. applications for investment visas and passports are up 30%. americans are now the number one group applying for many of those top investment programs. a survey found that 53% of american millionaires say they're going to leave the u.s. after the election no matter who wins. >> the majority of our clients are very successful business owners, entrepreneurs. we also have a lot of the leaders in the tech sector out of silicon valley. for them, it's building a

portfolio of options around the world. >> what they call a passport portfolio. where are the wealthy going? malta has become the big status symbol for second passports. you can get citizenship for $650,000 and live and work anywhere in europe. st. lucia also popular. portugal requires an investment of 250,000 euros. greece, spain and italy are also big for americans. greece nearly doubled the price of its visa for parts of the country. for more on the wealthy, check out the inside wealth newsletter at cnbc.com/insidewealth for your full guide to moving overseas after the election. [ laughter ] >> i thought portugal was out. >> what they did is, you used to

be able to buy a beach condo for $300,000 and get the permanent residency as a bonus. now, prices on the real estate went up so much, the locals got frustrated and there was backlash. now, real estate is not an option for that investment. but you can invest that amount in a business or other startup. the program essentially costs the same, but you can't do it through real estate anymore. >> meantime, we just had that journal piece about the chinese trying to expatriate money and crypto. >> they're moving money out. the u.k. just passed a budget that has big increases on the wealthy. so the u.s. and the british are now looking to go. it will be interesting to see where all those groups -- but we have money on the move like we've never seen before around the world. different reasons. china, you've got the government. the u.k., you've got taxes. the u.s., you've got social and

cultural issues, not so much taxes, driving people to think about living overseas. >> why are people leaving america? >> some of it is i don't like this andidate. that's on both sides. some of it is discomfort with violence, anti-semitism, all of these things that bother us. if you have the money and the mobility, which the wealthy have, why not live overseas for a while? >> yeah. or at least get a malta passport. $650,000, that's all? >> living the humphrey bogart dream. >> i was thinking casablanca too. that's in morocco. thank you, robert. cnbc is live all night with election coverage. we start at 7:00 p.m. eastern. we as in not me, but a lot of other people that include people at that desk. our live market coverage then continues into the wee hours. we're back right after this.

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