to spend no matter what happens tonight. >> bill? >> leidos. a strong emphasis in the i.t. space. >> stef? >> dupont. they beat, they raised lek tonics are on fire, and the spin is coming in 18 months. >> all right. see you back on "closing bell" in a couple hours' time. "the exchange" begins now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott, and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans, and here 's what's ahead. the day is here, the stakes are high, and trades for both candidates seem to be working right now. big tech outperforming, that's a harris indicator. but djt, crypto and bond yields are rising, as well. and that's more of a trump basket. we'll look at what the market is telling us and where it's placing its bets in the homestretch on this election day. big global implications for the results, as well. the world is watching, and we'll look at how this outcome should gift with the geopolitical

landscape. and don't forget about the fed. we have a rate decision thursday, and rates, of course, are up sharply since that jumbo cut in september. ten years are going up for auction right now. rick will bring us those results ahead. but first over to dom chu with the latest on the markets. >> so kelly, we'll put some numbers behind that opening of yours just now, because we are talking about markets that are generally higher. and seeing as how many traders are talking about this coin toss aspect of the election outcome, we are in context of where the s&p 500 opened for trading on that thursday halloween day. so, again, we backed up, but just to the point where we were mid last week. the dow up 427 points, a 1% gain. 42,220. the s&p 500 isat 5776, up north of 1%, as well. 63 points to the upside. this is right near the highs of the session, which currently stand at 68 points. even at the lows, we were up ten

points. and just for reference, that 50-day moving average that we talked about as possible areas of support, currently stands below right now at 5706, a level some traders will watch throughout the course of the evening. the nasdaq composite, up 252 points, 18,430, up 1.5%. let's go through some of those possible trade proxies kelly mentioned. in order for us to take a look at the harris/walz side of things, big technology, social media companies have been maybe viewed as proxies by some traders. alphabet, amazon, all among stocks that are up from one half to 2.5%, so that is the blue side of the equation. of course, the other ones that are going higher on the red side for former president trump. trump media and technology, up about 14.5% right now. higher. tesla, controlled by elon musk, very, very much a trump supporter, up about 4.5% there. and bitcoin prices, seen as a

proxy for a possible trump administration, also up 3.5%, as well. so it's green across the board. hard to tell what you can glean from this in this kind of a market. traders will try to figure out the handicapping as the evening progresses. back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much for now. dom chu. less than six hours away from the first poll closings across half a dozen states, including the state of georgia. we have every angle of this race covered for you. steve liesman is combing through the preelection polling data to find the key factors to watch. piper sandler is the pepty head of u.s. policy. and don snyder joins us, with robert frank who is tracking the spike in second passport applications among the wealthy. what that could be telling us. steve, let's start with you. >> thanks, kelly. i sat down for an extended talk with four polling experts and asked them, imagine we have the results. what data points from the

preelection polls would would you look back on as having been decisive for a trump or harris victory? let's start with nbc's steve kornacki with his electronic board, telling you which county he's watching tonight for early clues about a possible harris victory. >> let me just show you what's happening in chester county, one of the big suburbs of philadelphia. you can see biden won this by a little over 1 points in 2020. that was up from a nine-point clinton win. you go back to when romney was running, this was a dead even county. this typifies what we see in higher income suburbs. dramatic movement away from the donald trump version of the republican party towards the democrats. harris is holding on to the win that biden got in pennsylvania, i would say this number, look for this number to be over 60% for her. >> if trump wins, it will be because of the three is, immigration, inflation, which we

haven't talked much about, 66% of voters say that their family is falling behind. their incomes are falling behind the inflation rate that they're experiencing. the final i is indig nation. the base republican voters are pretty fired up. >> by a 3-1 margin, people are seeing more ads from kamala harris. among the persuadable voters, that advantage for harris is 15-1 more likely to see ads from her than from donald trump. that's a pretty shocking and substantial advantage. this may be one of those things that big advantage that harris has had in the air wars. >> if it comes to explaining a donald trump victory, i look at our poll, 48% of voters retrospectively approve of donald trump's job as president, that's higher than he ever had in our poll when he was president. it's higher than joe biden at 41%. and so that overall mood music over the last several months, in

fact, over several years of people's perceptions of the biden presidency versus trump might explain why trump ends up winning. >> that's, of course, preelection polling data. we'll get new exit polling data this evening. you can watch the full discussion with these folks online at kcnbc.com. >> steve, after chatting with all of them, what are you going to be watching most closely tonight? >> well, i'm going to -- can't wait for those exit polls to see where the economy ranks. but remember, it's been sort of the economy for trump versus some of the social issues and character for harris. so that, to me, is where it comes down to. i'm also going to watch for younger women, iguess, in the 18 to 49, because i think they were very conflicted in our polling. they were very concerned about the inflation issue and the economy issue. but of course, there are a lot of issues about women's

reproductive freedom on the ballot. for them, i think there was some interesting tension, and it will be fascinating for me to see how they broke in this election. >> steve, thanks for bringing that to us, steve liesman. now to don snyder for insight on how investors can or should position for any election scenario. don, what do you make of the trading landscape today? i'm struck that everything seems to be working, as both trading positions, harris or trump wins, something has to give, right? >> yeah, i agree. i think most of the things are working, our portfolios have worked very well, the classics under a trump administration, the companies that are exposed to china, trade risk, mexico exposure, performing as you would expect. the defense industries or you're looking at the tech names that you mentioned, tesla, the renewables, et cetera. so everything is working. i would say my concern on the

outlook in so far as positioning, i think when we talk with investors, they're very focused on the trump trade. this is reflective of a very pro growth environment, which you'll see very expansive fiscal policy that will push interest and growth higher, but i'm not sure the right way to be thinking about this race. >> why not? >> i think the backdrop is really different from back in 2016. i was working in congress then on the tax cuts. this time around, there is no big corporate tax cut in the offering. it's about extending existing policy, so that keeps deficits in check where they are, and doesn't add much to the growth impulse. then add on to that fact, i think trade uncertainty and a big ratcheting up of the trade war will weigh on growth and sentiment. and immigration changes can also weigh on growth in the short run. when you add up all those factors, you don't get the same sentiment boost that you did in

the first administration, and you have some of these other factors. >> so you would be more of a buyer -- you're not an investment strategist, but you would be hinting that you would be more of a buyer when they're selling off on this weakness. there might not be changes under his regime, but there would have to be on the personal tax side, and that would be expensive. >> yeah, certainly. the corporate side, i don't think much in the way we're going to preserve what we already have. i think there's reasons for term premium to grind higher and interest rates to grind higher. the deficit is going to be bad and stay bad, regardless of what happens. on the expense side of the individual income tax cuts, yes, it's 3.9 trillion to over a decade just to preserve what we already have and indeed quite expensive. most investors expect it to be extended, and that said, when you extend what's already in place, it's not net growth. >> absolutely. what about on the harris side,

there has been talk of raising corporate taxes and some have seen that would be a head wind of a couple percentage points to earnings per share growth in the next few years and that kind of thing. i don't know if that's an area where you can position one way or the other, because corporate events or macro events tend to overwhelm those changes at the margin, but would you be a seller of stocks in that scenario? >> no, because i think in a harris -- if she wins, she's less likely to have full control of government, whereas republicans are more likely to have the house and senate. she would be in a divided government. where there is an angle on corporates is on the multinational side. basically that tax rates are going to go up automatically, so i think there's probably more room for, you know, revenue extraction on the multinationals, which is predominantly tech and pharma. so there's more of the risk in

divided government. >> two more quick questions. one of them i'm curious about the midterms, regardless of the outcome today, investors should be thinking about that event already and pushing us in the other direction, or not. the other direction, because you came from congress, what you think in terms of that outlook that we would need for the president one way or the other, how much impactful policy will there be? >> between now and the midterms, in a republican sweep, there's extraordinary range for policy change, either way. there's three major events that have to happen. you have to fund the government, that's going to be two deadlines depending if there's -- from december 20 this year. you have to raise the debt limit, which creates an opportunity to discuss the spending outlook. and then you have to extend the 2017 reports. when you open up the tax road, everything is on the table, including the renewable subsidies and the irs. so there's tremendous scope for

legislative change, but much more so in a trump administration. >> very interesting. don, thank you for joining us this afternoon. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> by the way, don, before i let you go, sense we -- you might be more -- nate silver says it's basically a coin flip. you run 80,000 simulations, harris wins in 40,012 of them. would you add my nor color on who you think might win? >> i think the 55% favoring trump for some time. i would say my confidence over the past week has been moving closer in that direction, but i still think based on the polling and everything we would see, it would be trump rather than harris today. >> don, thank you for joining us. a record number of wealthy americans are busy applying for second pass ports and permanent residencies outside the u.s. robert frank is here with what's behind that boom, and it's unusual. >> every election you hear people say i'm going to leave the country if so and so is

elected. this time, the wealthy are taking action. applications for investment visas and passports up more than 30% this year. americans are now the number one group applying for many of the top investment migration programs. the survey by art and capital found that 53% of american millionaires say they're likely to leave the u.s. after the election, no matter who wins. >> the majority of our clients are very successful business owners, entrepreneurs. we have a lot of the leaders in the tech sector out of silicon valley. so for them, it's building a portfolio of options around the world. >> they call that a passport portfolio. where are the wealthy going? malta, for about $650,000 plus fees, you can get citizenship and live and work anywhere in europe. st. lucia and antigua also popular. but portugal is the favorite that requires an investment of

250,000 euros. you have greece, spain, and italy also big for americans right now. the prices, though, are going up, so better act fast. greece is doubling the price of its golden visa for certain parts of the country. for a complete guide of moving overseas after the election, go to any newsletter, "inside wealth" at cnbc.com. and the numbers are stagger ing. you look at the applications, it's americans, americans, americans, and we've never seen this. >> i wonder if it's what don was talking about, there are going to be these expiring tax cuts in 2025, and with the deficit, it's hard to see where rates don't go higher, personal rates, maybe some estate planning rates. >> absolutely. but what's different about this group applying right now, taxes are not the top concern, because remember, we tax global income.

even if you live in portugal or get a second passport, you are still taxed as an american on your income. >> wow. >> so you don't get a tax break unless you pay the exit tax and renounce your citizenship. so taxes aren't the driver for these wealthy. >> they just don't want to be here. >> it's social issues, whether it's i don't like this candidate or general issues about gun violence, anti-semitism, just fear of political and cultural unrest, instability. that's what clients are telling them. you want to have a backup plan. that's what a lot of them are doing. >> you report on this like none other. thanks for joining us. cnbc will be live all night tonight as the results come in. we'll have reaction from the biggest names in business, all starting at 7:00 p.m. from the new york stock exchange and continuing throughout the night until "squawkbox" begins at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. ten-year notes went up for

auction. rick santelli is here. how is it looking, rick? >> you know, it was a pretty good auction, the second leg of an action. this was $42 billion in ten-year votes. the yield, 4.437. pretty much where the unissued market was trading. the grade i gave this auction was a b as in boy, primarily because there was a very strong component in the form of direct bidders. that was the highest level in basically ten years. we saw indirect bidders, the weakest level in a little over a year. all the other metrics were roughly in line with ten auction averages. 4.32 right now, it was 4.33 before the auction, but we have rallied a bit, pushi ing yields down. we are hovering near friday's close, which is the highest close since the first couple of days in july. we all recall that was a very shockingly weak creation on jobs. but lots of noise within that

report. tomorrow, we'll complete $125 billion in coupon supply with 30-year bonds. suffice it to say right now, election or no election, it seems as though supply is a focus around the globe. we saw a guilt auction, that's the ten-year maturity in the uk. we'll have a messy auction pushing up to a one-year high yield close. kelly, back to you. >> rick, should we not overlook -- we watch stocks rising today. could ism services be as much to do with this as any election, you know, bets one way or the other? that was a strong round of data today. >> oh, absolutely. there's very little doubt about it. before that data came out, we were hovering right about where we are now. we did get the high yields around 4.36 plus after those service numbers, and we did actually see the prices ease back. normally, that is something that pushes yields lower. yes, the service sector much

different than the manufacturing sector, is doing quite well. some of those headline numbers today in the service sector had 21 months. >> we'll leave it on that note, rick. thank you very much. rick santelli. coming up, just over 48 hours away from the fed decision on interest rates. our market guest expects another quarter point this week, and probably another in december. we'll ask him why and get his reaction to the ten-year auction next. and also talk about the balance sheet and how that might be driving yields, as well. one-fifth of the s&p is reporting earnings, like novo nordisk and cvs. we'll bring you the action and the trade ahead. back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall?

he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. welcome back to "the exchange." both stocks and bonds are moving today. bond yields i should say are moving higher as investors head to the polls. the dow hasn't fallen on election day since 2004. it's actually been a strong performance. the s&p and nasdaq haven't been down on this day since 2000. meanwhile, treasury yields are moving higher with the ten-year closing in on its highest since july. our next guest says this is a market discounting a trump win. joining me is barry knapp. i don't know if you -- i mean, barry, there's sort of -- is it discounting a trump win, are

these trades going to be proven right? there's many layers, and then there's the fed meeting coming up. >> it was a little oversimplification when i answered that question to your producer. this has a lot to do with vol, as well. the move index and the vix index have been elevated, looking for big moves. once we clear the election, we've been realizing 11% vol in the s&p, and the implied vol in the vix indecision. so i don't want to get too carried away with the price moves here today. certainly, the price move in treasuries following what was a weak labor market report on friday, the push higher in yields in the belly of the curve. that was significant. >> yeah. >> discussion of the ten-year, surely that went well. we have a 30-year tomorrow, and

a 30-year has been really where the rubber meets the road around the deficit, you know, debt, supply of treasuries, and tomorrow that 30-year auction would be really interesting. >> maybe we should show the 30-year in recent history, but you could say the market looked past the weak headline number, saw strong unemployment rate, now we have strong ism services this morning. if we start seeing bond yields rise on weak data, you know there's a problem. but maybe the rise is truly because real growth is holding up okay. >> well, i'm going to give you a wonky response to that. the rally began with stronger data, the september employment report. there was nothing strong about friday's report. you look through all those details, big downward revisions in august. a downward revision in september. i think there will be another downward revision in september. but the real wonky response to

this is swap spreads, which is the difference between the actual yield on treasuries, and swap rates is really negative that. is a clear indication that supply is weighing on the part of the curve, least impacted by the fed's balance sheet or the fed's rate policy. that's just been moving more and more negative through this whole process. the real story is what's going to happen to spending in 2024. rick also commented on what happened in the guilt market. that's a fascinating episode, as well. we had our trust moment two years ago when everyone said well, you can't do supply side policies, just cut taxes like trump has been suggesting we're going to do. but last week, the guilt market rejected a tax and spend. >> right. what does that tell you, barry? if the uk can't do demand side stimulus, then what is left for them to do? >> if you start crossing off all the areas, you come up with one

answer, spending at 24% of gdp is unsustainable, and it needs to be cut. >> they tried that, though. did they not? >> we could get that during the reconciliation process. if the trump, assuming he wins, if the trump administration's primary goal is to make those tax cuts permanent, the bird rule provision of budget reconciliation says, this needs to balance over ten years. this is why the bush tax cuts had expiration dates on them. but if you want to make that permanent, you have to come up with offsetting revenues and ar there. or you're going to have to come up with spending cuts. >> i think the tariff piece of this is interesting, philosophically, but tariffs would raise -- if we did 40% across the board, it would raise what 10% of income would be.

>> so it's spending cuts, kell. spending is at 24% of gpdz, the postwar average is more like 20%. that's the issue. and so that's how we potentially get the debt under control, but -- >> who is "we?" i'm not hearing trump talk about spending cuts. maybe you can say elon musk's reforms on the margins. harris is not talking about spending cuts. how do we get from 24% spending cut when the biggest contributors are defense, medicare and the interest on the debt. >> cutting eligibility on health care is going to be a problem. you would have to restructure that away to results oriented. it's no trivial matter. so i'm not implying it. is. this is where i would expect the bond market to come under pressure if trump wins a second term. but it will come under even more pressure in 2025 under harris

administration, because there's very -- even lower probability of spending cuts under a harris administration. we'll talk to republicans like susan collins or lisa murkowski into tax hikes that won't work and spending is locked at 24% of gdp. so we have a big problem to deal with here. >> 100%. if i were to translate this into actionable or actionability, you're basically seeing if we see bonds rally on a harris victory, you think it would be short lived and selloffs in 2025. would there be any other immediate knee jerk moves to make here in these markets, given not so much the political outcome but given that deficit overlay that you're describing? >> well, i think the bond market -- you know, this is very different than 2016. in 2016, the lowest probability outcome was a trump win, a red wave, but that had very positive implications for the stock market because he was promising

a big cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% down to 20% or so. this go around, the real problems are all on the bond market. and the results are all skewed much more negatively. so i'm less focused on what happens to the stock market in the immediate aftermath of this. the real issue is the bond market. and how does chair powell answer i don't know, whether, you know, steve will ask this question or not, but it would be my question if i was a reporter, you cut the fed policy rate 50 basis points, and ten-year yields went up 75 basis points. does this have anything to do with the management of your balance sheet? of course, it does. as we have been discussing for more than a year now. >> but they don't believe that. they generally -- i think they genuinely don't believe the balance sheet has the impact you're describing. i've heard you and other people on the street say listen, we have to look at this. it's obvious the market is

telling you it has an impact. but i do not believe they believe it has an impact. >> which is why we should have a vice chair from capital markets that came from the street who understands how this works, not a bunch of professors and consultants. >> who's the new dallas fed, isn't -- >> lori logan gets this for sure. but you're thinking of the cleveland fed president. >> yes. >> of course, you have the kansas city fed president talking about the effect of balance sheet and whether they should be shortening the duration, so they start minimizing the impact on longer term rates and not cause, you know, ill-liquidity. >> we'll continue to chat about this and see if others come around to it, as well. nevertheless, anything that explains the dynamics, we're all ears. to have you onis a pleasure. >> thanks, kell. still to come, check out

palantir, surging to an all-time high after beating on these estimates and hiking full-year revenue guidance. shares are up 22%. the stock trading at $17 a share when it was labelled the lionel messi of ai on this show last year. the shares have tripled since january, surpassing nvidia to become the second best performing stock this year. it's up almost 200%. we'll look at the owgring ties between silicon valley and government defense. we're bam after this.

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good afternoon and welcome back to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update for this hour. israeli defense minister has been fired. prime minister benjamin netanyahu, whose office today said the prime minister fired gallant saying there was a crisis of trust between the two. netanyahu has named the current foreign affairs minister to replace gallant. at least 18 state and the district of columbia have the national guard on duty to support election security today, including battle ground states such as arizona, north carolina, and pennsylvania. in total, about 350 troops will

work cybersecurity and law enforcement to support this general election. meta will extend its ban on political ads after today's election. it was supposed to expire just before midnight but will stay in place a little longer to prevent confusion from spreading. google also blocking election ads until polls close tonight. kelly, back to you. >> very different than in the past, as deidre has been reporting. tyler, thank you very much. tyler mathisen. the focus for big tech has been finding ways to monetize ai. and one use case that's emerging is the military. check out palantir shares, surging 22% after the company cited a boom in demand for its ai software from the u.s. government, and it's not alone as ai giants are working to expand with defense agencies. deidre bosa is digging into that for today's "tech check." >> so silicon valley's relationship with defense and

military is evolving, from the reluctant to the interdependent, thanks to what else, artificial intelligence. that is on display from palantir and meta, and it will be a question for google as the race to develop and deploy ai technology as it becomes a bipartisan autocratic versus democratic, u.s./china issue. on the palantir earnings call, the ceo said many times that their u.s. government business is booming. it grew 40% year over year. that was a sevenfold increase, pushing shares to record highs today. they have seen the adoption of palantir technology in every part of the u.s. government, including the white house, congress, intel. then there's meta announcing it's opening up its ai model to agencies for military purposes. that marks a major shift from policy previously that had banned the use of its technology for such efforts.

earlier this year, openai softened its own stance on the use of its technology for military applications. now, google, the poster child of silicon valley's skepticism and reluctance of government collaboration, there will be an interesting one to watch as we see more collaboration between google acquired deep mine in 2014, it committed to barring its technology from military or surveillance purposes. but as ai increasingly becomes an issue of national security and maintaining u.s. competitiveness in the face of china's ascent, will it reverse course? it is one to watch because of its turbulent history with government defense contracts. kelly? >> alex carp has been such a breakout player in this area. he's unapologetic for his work with the government, and it seems as if he's giving voice to what the rest of big tech is doing a little more quietly. >> he's been saying it for a long time. there was an interesting

response last night, where he said when they were getting started, people were worried they were getting too many government contracts. how that has changed and how palantir has helped build up an industry that extends beyond palantir, other startups in this space. this development with big tech is interesting. it's almost a throwback, too, to the way silicon valley developed after world war ii and in the cold war. they had a really close relationship with government in the past, but really in the 2010s they grew further apart. so what they're seeing is maybe a return to that and it's very interesting to watch, but really it's ai that is forming the backbone of this. >> investors love it, as well. no better client than the government. steady revenues. deidre, thank you very much. deidre bosa reporting. coming up, we'll look at today's election through the lens of geopolitics with foreign policy and the future of nato front and center as the world watches and waits for the u.s. to choose a president. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back. from taiwan to latin america to

europe, the whole world is watching the results of today's election, as the next president will oversee everything from funding ukraine's defense against russia to trade deals with china and mexico. joining me to game out the impacts is michael o'hanlan. michael, great to see you. what's top of mind? >> i think what's top of mind is probably china, because i think i see the greatest disparity in the candidate's views in regard to that important country. >> a lot of people think they're relatively similar. >> yeah, i don't know. i think that the biden/harris administration got off to a bad start with china, which is not uncommon. even george h.b. bush had a bad start. but the harris/biden team has largely stabilize that relationship. it's not very good but it's stable. there seems to be a dialogue between xi jinping and joe biden, and therefore, presumably

kamala harris. there seems to be some mil military-to-military communications. there are still a lot of tensions in the south china sea and a lot of disagreement over tech policy and trade, but it's stable. nobody is posing new big disruptions at the moment. there's a business-like civility in the relationship. i think all of that would be at doubt under a president trump. i'm more intrigued by trump's views where russia, even though i don't think he has a serious peace plan, his instincts aren't so bad and may bring usful disruption to the process but with regard to china he makes me nervous. >> during his first administration, there are those who said the threat of the changes he was proposing were actually emboldening the reformers within china. do you think that was true? and would that be true this time around or is the landscape very different? >> good question. i don't think that donald trump had a bad legacy on china after

his first term, to be fair. and i'm a critic because of his sort of impulsive ways. it scares me with somebody on their finger on the nuclear button. but in many ways he not only put up some good barriers to chinese tech theft and the like, but he created policies that joe biden and harris have largely followed. so it's not so much the legacy and whatever effect he might have had on the reforme ers the it's more about these big, new ideas about big disruptions, especially on the economic side. that would spill over into the entire relationship and probably increase the risk of security crises, as well. >> i know we're dwelling a lot on china, but it's interesting you went there first. would it potentially open up the chinese towards seizing a moment with taiwan under a harris/walz administration? would the disruption come from their end, not ours? >> first off, bets are off no matter who is president, in the

sense that china has the ability to decide, to take taiwan at any given moment, and there are a lot of people that xi jinping sees that as a pre-eminent priority for his remaining years in power. but i think with the harris team, you have a team that sort of is used to dealing with this issue and presumably would be some holdover from a biden term, and some of harris' people that dealt with this issue before, and basically, we know how to respond in kind to chinese provocations using a combination of military and economic assets. with trump he may scare the chinese into being intimidated and not acting at all, that's possible. but it's also possible they would see his views as mallable and not even coherent because he changes his mind from moment to moment. if he leads to the impression the united states would not help defend taiwan and china reads that too literally, then we could see an increase in the risk of war. >> let me ask the last question,

we go back to the middle east then, and ask how -- presidential election notwithstanding, you see that situation coming to a close if you do. >> well, i think it's all in israel's hands in terms of the next step, as we have seen today with the firing of the defense minister, because he favored a long-term political vision for gaza and prime minister netanyahu did not, because he favored a cease-fire, and netanyahu did not. you know, i don't know that the white house's main concern is what is on netanyahu's mind. there was a recent article where it was outlined the israeli strategy, hand's to chop hamas up into pieces and make cease-fire deals with local commanders. that feels what netanyahu is up to. i don't think that depends on whether it's trump or harris. >> is there a final place you would direct our attention as we think about places where relationships could actually improve? >> well, i mentioned ukraine and

russia. both the candidate's fronts, they have some serious thinking to do. we'll need a new strategy towards that war for a new president, because biden's approach has been pretty good, but it was about making sure ukraine was not overrun. it was not a war strategy, it was a survival strategy. it worked as far as it went, but are we going to keep this war going for three, four, five, six years, or get more assertive about a strategy? richard haass wrote a piece about how we might have to persuade the ukrainians to think that way as well to end this war. that's a big decision for the next president, because we'll have a lot of say how this war may go. >> michael, thank you very much. still to come, shares of carvana are higher today after morgan stanley upgraded them to equal weight and hiked the price target by $150 to $260.

the stock is up 700% from its 52-week low. we'll get a check on some of the other -- of the day's other big ve, xt.

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♪ welcome back. the election is not the only e-word that matters to investors today. we've also got a ton more earnings on deck. i think this is the busiest week of earnings season. supermicro, nova report at "earnings exchange." welcome, steve. let's begin with a fun one supermicro, coming off its worst week ever. the accounting firm cited concerns about values. chip competition and ai server. aren't they the third largest purchaser of nvidia?

what do they do with the stock? >> i care for the same reason you care because i think that relationship with nvidia is a pretty precarious one because does nvidia come out and somehow -- i don't think they do it vocally in front of everybody, but maybe somehow behind the scenes, i'm not implying anything nefarious, kelly, somehow they support the name or support the stock or support management. i think that would be a big tail wind for supermicro. >> what if they distance themselves? that's what i would do i were nvidia. i don't want this to be a read-through. >> that's a problem. and you could also make it a read-through, you know, as you're inferring, are people selling nvidia today, not really? they're not even thinking about that relationship. but i wouldn't be -- this stock, if they have a whiff of good news, the stock could be up 50%.

>> wow. >> if they have a whiff -- by the way, i'll apologize. my dog wants to make an appearance on your show right behind me. i'm not sure if you can see him in the shot. >> we can't but he or she is welcome. >> so, when you really think about this name, it could be up 50% or it be cut in half from here again. so, this to me would be a no touch. if you're an investor, you got to keep this one on a short leash. this was sort of telegraphed. they were late on their 10k a couple of months ago as well and that's why you saw the original stock slide off. so you sort of want to keep your hands in your pockets here. you could maybe play it through options, but this is deep end of the pool for me. >> i think that's sort of well worth bearing in mind. let's move on to novo, another one fun. super volatile as well. shares down 26% from the june all-time highs but still up on the year. we have of course the latest on their demand for their weight loss drugs the pipeline, any acquisitions. do you like this stock?

would you be a buyer? >> so, it got beaten up ahead of lily falling off off the table as well. and for the same reason, the prescriptions did a nose dive and everyone -- all the investors said, you know what, are we -- what are we worried about here? we're worried about the lack of prescriptions coming out. it fell short of that. what about the competition? every time you open up the paper, you see another competitor. you like how i did that, kelly? who opens up a paper anymore. >> i get three of them. >> good for you. so you see small competitors you see large competitors, we see them in the news every night on fast money we're cofvering all f them. so there's a competitive landscape. i do like the entry level that the stock has given you here. and they do have a new medication on the horizon.

i probably bastardized that pronun pronunciation. supposed to be 25% weight loss with less side effects. >> imagine. >> if they can do that, that's the holy grail. but it's a big if. it's a binary situation, but i think the entry level of the stock is giving you is probably worth risk/reward. >> so your on the sidelines with supermicro. you would buy novo here. we only have a couple seconds left. cvs health, you want to go anywhere near that one? >> so cvs is in a poor segment, right? it's got beaten up. everything in this segment has gotten beaten up, but in theory the stock is actually at a spot where it usually bounces. this has been support going back to 2019. a nice div but healthcare has been down, retail has been down in this space. it's a tough market. >> steve and dog grasso, thank you for your time. weppcie it areat. that does it for "the exchange." i'll join tyler and you on the other side of this break for "power lunch."

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our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. good to be with you. good to be with everyone. stocks are solidly on in the green on this election day. the dow the worst performer shy of 1% gain. there you see it moving higher. s&p is higher by 1% and the nasdaq the