growth. you buy it today and think it's going higher, i don't get it. sell it. >> sell it, he says. thank you for joining us today, hightower chief marketest. we should circle back to shares of djt. >> they were halted for volatility. >> they were headed toward session highs and they gave the gains up and turned negative. 4% is the last print we see. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. guys, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott whopner. the first polls closing in four hours' time. we'll ask our experts over the final stretch where best to invest right now, no matter the outcome. let's take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. majors have been strong all day long, off the best levels in some cases. nonetheless, positive by almost 1% on the s&p, a little above

that on the nasdaq. every sector within the s&p 500 today is in the green. consumer discretionary the best following the strongest ism services report in a couple of years. industrials also solid. of course we check tech. it's up as well. we're still watching nvidia and apple battle it out for the biggest market share company in the market and we will track that through this final 60 as well. it does take us to our talk of the tape, the election and stocks and what the result will mean for this bull run. let's ask our panel. new york life's lauren goodwin, anastasia amoroso and kevin gordon are all with me at post nine. lauren, i will start with you first. how do you feel about the events, not so much what you think is going to be the result, but how the market backdrop is no matter what? >> well, for one thing, we're coming off of an economic growth and earnings backdrop that's incredibly resilient and that provides, i think, a bolster for

the bull market and frankly gives whoever the next administration is a bit of time and leeway to enact their policies. now, as i think about what are the sectors and areas that are likely to do well regardless of the result, these are paradigm shifts, election-related ideas that have been in place over the last couple of years. we know that trade is going to be a sticking point, we know that energy, data centers, ai are important areas of investment. investors know what the themes are. i think we're likely to see some relief, actually, knowing the results so we can move on. >> maybe the market -- certainly the market hopes for a clean result, one that we don't have to wait for many days for, and we shall see. anastasia, ubs today, equities are attractive regardless of the election result. piper sandler reiterates their target of 6100. in other words, they do, too. do you? >> i do. look, maybe that's what the market is trying to game out in

pre-trading. the fact that everybody knows at this point once we get last the election, equities tend to rally, no matter who ends up in the white house. they tend to average 10% after that. we know volatility picks up into the event and subsides thereafter and we know that the yield should continue to decline if the fed starts cutting interest rates. i think that's what the markets are positioning for, and i agree with that. we have to go back and look at the events we had today, which is services coming in better than expected. the rate relief that's on the way, the fed is likely to cut 25 basis points tomorrow. we got the buyback window, which is basically fully open. and if you go back to some of the fundamentals, 22 times multiple times $272 on earnings gives you $6,000 on the s&p. i think that's everybody is focused on once again. >> kev, do you think the backdrop is positive, no matter what the result is? i mean, that's what the

prevailing thought, i think, seems to be. economy strong, as anastasia said, underscored by yet another positive economic report. services, a service-based economy, so it matters a lot, the fed is cutting interest rates. the buyback window, pent-up demand for m&a. i could probably find a couple other things. what does the backdrop look like to you no matter what happens tonight? >> the services part, the bifurcation between services and manufacturing, it was emphasized more today, and depending on which components you're looking at, that's been a theme for the past several years. it's taken a long time for manufacturing to really get out of its slump and respond discretionary where the path of least resistance is for rates, which is lower in terms of the fed still cutting rates. i would say from the economic and the market backdrop sense to the points that were made by lauren and anastasia, the backdrop is generally pretty healthy and in an economic sense, even if you back this up past several months, revisions

you've got in the gdp or gdi or the gdp report you got, at least the initial read for the third quarter, even some of the labor market data that is not necessarily corroborating what weakness you might have seen in october, all of that is suggestive of a healthy economy and a healthy market backdrop where you've got close to 75% of s&p 500 members trading above their average. >> i would say the price action is interesting because there's these twists and turns. first we see the ten-year yields rising and if you look at the republican basket was outperforming, you saw some of the trump trades outperforming. now we're seeing some reversal and the ten-year yields are back to 4.28%. and i think the markets are trying to position for this. what's interesting is the markets are up. it is sort of an everything rally, and i think that goes back to the point that policy and politics are not likely to derail the economy.

and if you look at one candidate's proposals versus the other candidate's proposals, they're offsets. pro-growth policies for both and negatives. the economic impact is projected to be virtually neutral, so i think that's why the market reaction is actually positive. >> we look at this as just a clearing event tonight. you get it out of the way and then you can actually focus on the backdrop. the fed is going to remind you of what the backdrop probably is on thursday, by the way. and we'll see if we have an election result by then. but, again, get the clearing event out of the way and then focus on fundamentals. >> i expect that's the case and i certainly hope that's the case. i think the one risk besides a contested outcome is the risk to long rates, essentially treasury supply. both parties have pro-spending policies. the likelihood of a sweep in either direction is where i think we tend to see rates back up. now, i've been on the road a lot in the last couple of weeks, and

one of the questions that has come up a lot is, you all have been constructive on moving out of cash and into bonds. are we looking at a scenario where if we have a sweep in either direction, we have a bear market in bonds where that is not the right strategy. where even the income that a moderate interest rate gets you isn't the right call. and i do think that we could see some near-term risk in the ten-year treasury over the next couple of days if we see that sweep. and the expectation of more spending, more growth, more inflation. however, i do think that's a fade. it's very tactical in the medium term, i'm still constructive on the income generation opportunity of bonds. but even in the event of a big backup in rates, we're looking at a policy change that isn't likely to happen in an extreme way for many months so i would fade the reaction. >> 4.28% is where the ten-year currently is. how about the backup in yields, how significant of a risk is that to this rally? >> it's interesting because the market managers persevered.

if you think about what's been driving yields, some is better economic growth. if you do a chart showing the economic surprise index, it's really led the move higher in yields by about a month. part of it had to do with pricing out some of the rate cut expectations from the fed, and i think that's much better aligned to what the fed tells us they're going to do by the end of next year. some of that has to do with the election risk premium and the potential for the red sweep. what i like about the setup, there's a range of fair value estimates, but that range is somewhere between 3.86% and probably around 4.2%. so we're trading either right at the fair value estimate or right above it, so that tells me if we get past the election, especially if we don't get the red sweep, we've appropriately adjusted for growth and the fundamentals of the federal reserve. >> what if the wild card is that

there's more fed risk than election risk, in that the market has certainly brought in its expectations on both the number of cuts we might get and the speed at which we might get them. what happens if on thursday of this week we're led to believe that they might only cut once between now and the end of the year? is there a risk? >> i don't necessarily think that's outright bad or good. it's the context that matters. if they stop a take a methodical approach and don't go as aggressive, historically that's consistent with a better backdrop for the equity market. so i would argue that's a more favorable scenario. also, the risks from a fed perspective and an election perspective are totally different. if you have a contested election, not only is that really hard to map out, i really just have sort of a sample size of one at least in modern history you can point to, and it's 2000. by that point, you were in a bear market that started in march of 2000 and kind of on the heels of the recession that started in 2001. unless you think we're in that

similar backdrop, something that is drawn out and takes us a long time to figure out who the winner is, it's not a perfect comparison to more than 20 years ago. from the fed perspective, i think if they saw strong re-inflationary pressures, then i think it's pretty much smooth sailing at least this week. to me, the more important part comes in december when you get an updated projection. >> lauren, rbc today says a close, uncontested election is the tailwind. do you agree with that? >> i do because it's difficult to map out what the scenarios look like. i agree with kevin we don't have a lot of historical precedent. i think a close election, especially one where the president and the senate are resolved this week, the house takes a few extra weeks because there are more close and contested races, that's an environment i think the market can manage through without a whole lot of issue. a truly contested result is

likely a recipe for more volatility. that's where the market backdrop, the strong earnings really do help. >> what's interesting, when you look at the average annual s&p 500 returns by the breakout of congress, i think many people would be surprised to learn that democratic president, split congress, these are averages from 1936 until 2023, democratic president, split congress, 16%. democratic president, republican congress, 16%. republican president, split congress, 15%. democratic president, democratic congress, 12%. republican president, republican congress, 12%. republican president, democratic congress 9%. in other words, it's am always close to the same, and mid to low double digits. so maybe much adieu about nothing. the backdrop is good.

>> the backdrop is good. and perhaps just as important, the 16% or 9%, whatever the number is, historically we have seen some differences, especially in the couple of weeks after an election in the sectors that are winners or losers. but here is something that's different this time. though the campaigns are very different on areas like trade, like immigration, like tax, that certainly influences sector winners and losers. perhaps more importantly, they're both quite different from the past. you think about the technology sector, it might typically benefit from a red sweep because you would expect less regulation. now we know we've seen technology trade more to the downside along the threats of trade, for example, tariffs. these are sector bets that do not look like they did in the past, so the knee-jerk reaction the market has had to these opportunities are going to look different. i think this makes the election investable and more on the constructive side. >> i like that, more investable.

we're not buying a market, we're buying a market of stocks and you have to be real clear on where you want to be by virtue of who wins and what the policy programs are going to be. >> i think there are two points to make about that. first of all, the stats that you have listed suggest that there's market upside to be had regardless of who is in the white house and regardless of where the composition of congress ends up being. the second point, lauren is absolutely right, there is a big divergence within sectors observed and investors are trying to pre-position for that. i would say it's too early to commit. but once we know the outcome, once we know who the winner is going to be and the makeup of congress, then you can start putting in some trades. so investors should absolutely have their list ready to go, what happens if trump wins, what happens if harris wins. and their trades that are cheap on either side of that. >> you have lists, by the way. sorry to interrupt you.

harris trades, if she wins, long, clean energy, discretionary, small caps, international and tariff exposed names and the nasdaq 100, thinking that yields would potentially be lower, so you would want to look there. tell me more. >> that's right. so the nasdaq, i think would outperform over a harris scenario over the trump scenario, and partially that's because of yields. partially i think, you know, some of the technology and the nasdaq names are negatively exposed to tariffs so you wouldn't have that threat under harris. you look at international markets and it's really hard to invest in china when you don't know what the tariff policy is going to be. it's hard to go international if you don't know the path of that. but under a harris scenario you would go back into some of those international spots. clean energy has been such an unloved theme because we don't know what the investment credits are going to be after 2025. and once we have that answer, those are some of the trades. but i also say there's great

trades to be had on the other side as well. >> let's look at those. if trump wins, long financials, domestic companies with high percentage of u.s. revenues, industrials and small caps, crypto. former president trump has been talking a lot about crypto. what about cyclicles? tell me about these. >> i think there's a lot to be said about that. first of all, i mentioned that under harris you may want to go into the nasdaq. under trump, i think you want to go into the s&p 500 because we would expect to see a rebound in cyclicles, financials and industrials. and i would also say that domestic companies is something to focus on. within that, i particularly like financials, lending activities, yield curve is likely to be steeper. >> less regulation, obviously? >> less regulation is really key. >> do you want to take a stab at that? >> i would probably take the other side of the sector arguments just from the standpoint of if you were to use

the past two administrations as sort of a thought experiment. conventional wisdom would have told you back in 2016 in trump's first term that it's going to be really friendly to the energy sector because of policy proposals. >> it was the worst performing sector under president trump. >> but if you flip that on its head, and not just to pick on one administration, the best sector since biden took office has been industry, still up more than 100% since his inauguration day. if you were to broaden it out, the sixth worst performing sector under trump was banks and it's not like they've swung higher and they're the best industry under biden. so i think it's really tough -- even after the person who gets elected, you know what the policy proposals are, it's tough to game that out. i think back to the broader discussion we were having at the beginning, taking a look at what the economic backdrop is and looking at the macro forces at play, that i think is the more important scenario. not necessarily who comes in and the policies they're coming in

with. the cyclical trades make sense, but i think regardless of who ends up taking office, unless there is some sort of extreme policy that takes you to the other side of things, then i would alter my view. but the fact you're not getting a wake-up from defenseives, you are seeing relatively strong participation in financials, i think that's more of an important sign in terms of the underlying breath that has underpinned the rally. >> one quick point on crypto, i think you can see a significantly positive reaction if there is a trump win. that's a continuation of the crypto trade. what's interesting, it's not just former president trump that has talked positively about crypto and the deregulation of the space. but, also, harris has alluded to that as well. so that might be, to your point, a winner under both sides. >> technology wins under both, because up 93% under president biden, up 173% under former

president trump. now it's a real question mark within the market. we're coming off mega cap earnings. we're trying to figure out the monolith has been broken. i feel like. forget today's action in price, but they've started to differentiate themselves. >> we take a step back toward the sectors that won during the administrations and to the policies that made it possible, that gives us clues in terms of what we can look at as more durable sectors this time. going back off of what kevin said, trade, trump began the trade wars, but the biden administration did not roll them back. this is a policy that's unlikely to change, similarly energy security. trump drilled plenty, the biden administration drilled more. this is an environment where what we're really looking at is a reglobalization of supply chains, a technology

productivity boost through artificial intelligence that's fueling demand for energy. >> a re-globalization of supply chains or a de-globalization of supply chains? because if you're going to start manufacturing chips and more of them on u.s. soil, in a sense you're de-globalizing the global supply chain, no? >> i think it's re-globalization in the sense, what's happening is that companies and governments globally are taking the efficiency of the supply chains of the last era is not what they need. we need security and in some cases that means re-shoring, but in some cases broadening your exposure to different companies, doubling down in manufacturing in different places. these are capital expensive. if we look at sectors that benefit from those trends, it's policy moving away from where it was in the past, moving into a new direction. that's potentially con constructive for infrastructure along the supply chain, energy,

likely defense as well, cybersecurity. >> what about discretionary? i think i saw an interview earlier today with the head of the national retail federation talking about the impact of tariffs and the declining spending power that would result for consumers. do we need to think about that? >> yeah, i think those are different outcomes for consumer discretionary, depending on who wins the election. under a harris presidency, we would expect a pive outcome for discretionary, if she's able to pass the child tax credit proposals that would generate something like $100 billion in additional household disposable income. that would clearly be a positive. and, of course, the tariffs, which, by the way, i think would be enacted carefully with the notion in mind that you can't really derail the american consumer, but nevertheless, that would detract from consumer discretionary. can i give you one last trade? >> yes, please, leave us with something actionable. >> i think it works in a harris

or trump presidency, if you get the split congress, i love the ten-year treasury moved as much as it had, it repriced back to fundamentals. if you end up with a split congress, you are probably not going to end up with the worst case scenario. >> i like bonds, even as a stock guy. i like bonds. i agree. >> good stuff. we'll leave it there. everybody, thanks so much. kevin, anastasia, and lauren, thanks for being here on this busy and important election day. let's send it to kate rooney for the biggest names moving into the close. >> let's start with palintir, leading the s&p after the defense software company topped earnings expectations, helped by demand for ai and government software. palintir raised its revenue outlook on the year. shares of the company on pace for a record close today, heading into the close today. we're going to talk about cleveland-cliffs, sliding after they missed expectations for the quarter, citing weaker demand and pricing in autos driving tighter margins.

cleveland-cliffs says it expects steel demand to rebound in 2025. back to you. >> thanks. we're just getting started. up next, light street capital's glen kacher is back and he'll tell you what he's forecasting. we're live at the new york stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. humana medicare advantage plans. carry this card and you could have the power to unlock benefits beyond original medicare. these are convenient plans that offer all of the benefits of original medicare, plus extra coverage and benefits. with a humana medicare advantage plan, you could get doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. with zero-dollar copays on hundreds of prescriptions. most plans include dental coverage, including zero-dollar copays for covered preventive services. vision coverage, with eye exams and an allowance for eyewear. even hearing benefits,

with routine hearing exams and coverage toward hearing aids. that's more than you get with original medicare. but it gets even better. because humana offers zero-dollar or low monthly plan premiums. you'll also get, zero-dollar copays for routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. zero-dollar copays for telehealth visits. and zero-dollar copays for in-network preventive services. plus, worldwide coverage for emergency and urgent care when you travel. and, medicare advantage plans ensure your covered medical costs, including all doctor and emergency care, will never go above a maximum out-of-pocket amount that you know beforehand. imagine benefits like these in one convenient plan! plus, you'll have access to humana's multiple large plan networks of doctors, hospitals and pharmacies. so, if you want more from medicare, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that could give you extra coverage and benefits. including coverage for doctor, hospital, and prescription drugs. plus, a cap on your

out-of-pocket medical costs. and most plans include coverage for dental, vision, even hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. even help you enroll over the phone. call today and we'll also send this free guide. but now is the time. the annual enrollment period ends december 7th! humana. a more human way to healthcare. ♪ ♪

with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back. with the nasdaq leading the market higher today, all the mega cap names are in the green. can the ai-driven tech trade maintain momentum after rallying more than 30% this year? let's ask this to glen kacher. good to see you and have you back on this busy and important day. >> thank you. >> people are trying to game it out, in part what it's going to

mean for the tech space. how do you think about that? >> well, no matter who wins, i think the outcome of the election, our republic is strong, we have some of the greatest capital markets in the world, and i think both sides, republican and democrats, are highly incentivized to keep america as the leader in ai technology and cybersecurity specifically. so we think it's going to be a great night either way. >> are you sizing up various trades based on the outcome, though? >> as you know, we've had a huge position aimed at the shift to ai infrastructure for the last year or two, and we think that continues to do extremely well. earlier this year, beginning of this year, i pointed out to you kind of my ai five basket of stocks, nvidia, amd, tsmc, microsoft, and that's up 66% year-to-date, versus 46% for the mag seven. i see that continuing through

the end of the year. i think what we learned in earnings over the last several weeks is that mega cap tech companies are taking that ai infrastructure investments, taking those investments they're making, and they're using them to create new profits and better services for their clients. as a result, we don't see that spending slowing down this year or next year. >> do you have to be more selective, though, now? was that the lesson of earnings, if you will? >> well, i think our selectivity was already pretty high. our top picks have been nvidia and tsmc. i do think we're still betting on amd, for instance, and i think their best days in terms of their exposure to ai are still in front of them. investors are a little bit nervous about that and you saw some volatility as a result. but i still think amd is going to be a big winner from ai as well. >> let me ask you about that. because there is legit doubt in

the market, right? we saw that after earnings. what makes you so sure that they're going to be, if not at the finish line close to when nvidia gets there, you know, soon enough? >> well, you talk to the customers, scott. i think if you look at -- if you talk to amazon or meta or microsoft, it's very strategic for them to have a second source. and they need to keep nvidia's pricing in check. nvidia, to their credit, while prices are gone up and margins have gone up, they have not taken advantage of their customers. and i think they've profited from them greatly, but they've not taken advantage of their market situation. but the buyers, we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars here going into ai infrastructure. they need to make sure there's a competitor and we've already seen the ai category for amd growing to a $5 billion market

for them over the next year. >> how do you assess apple? i think we're trying to figure out exactly what apple intelligence is going to mean for an upgrade cycle. how are you thinking about that? >> yes, i think it's going to be great ultimately. i think as you've watched the company for decades and as we have, the company is known for being a fast follower. they have an incredible set of users, they have access to those users' data with their permission, of course. so they're going to be set up really well to give both business users and consumer users access to ai tools. so they're taking it slow, they have that position that enables them to do this without spending nearly as much in ai because they can partner with google, they can partner with some of the other leaders in ai. so, you know, we really see their position as still very strong, but they're going to

take their time. >> you talked about cyber. we looked at your latest filing, it doesn't show that you own crowdstrike or z scaler, but you do like those stocks? what light can you shed for us? >> we do own them, yes, and we do think this is an interesting trade for the election. so, yeah, those are new positions for us. >> i mean, relatively new? >> yes. >> within the last 30 days? >> yes. >> so you think that crowdstrike has sort of rebounded fully and enough from the issues that it had? >> i do, yeah. look, they're an incredibly strategic vendor to their customers and, you know, there's two sides to the coin of cybersecurity. it's incredibly serious. so when something goes badly, it is a very strategic, large issue

for the customer base. but at the same time, in our view, they have the best technology in the industry. >> let me lastly ask you, because we really didn't get to it, whatever kind of regulatory risk that you may see, you know, no matter the outcome, former president trump hasn't exactly spoken glowingly about many within the tech industry during his term. now, he obviously has musk in his corner, so maybe things are different. and a number of regulatory actions have come down against a number of different mega cap names. how are you thinking about it, no matter who wins? >> well, i do think the most meaningful difference between the two sides will be the ftc and the potential departure of conn would be a massive positive for big cap tech and their ability to make m&a transactions, and that flows down to private equity and the venture capitalists that are

backing companies that have not been able to be acquired by the largest tech companies, largely because they're waiting to see what happens with the current leadership at the ftc. so i think that is the biggest difference between who wins this election, and so if trump were to win and conn were to depart, we would see that as a really good change for the tech industry. >> we'll talk to you soon. good seeing you, as always. >> thanks for having me on. >> you bet. chci b next, we have the star tenianack with us, ryan detrick, why he is still betting on the bulls despite the potential volatility ahead. he'll make his case next.

business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

stocks are rallying across the board on this election day. one of my next guests expects some near-term volatility around the election. he says the bull market is alive and well. joining me, ryan detrick of the carson group. the backdrop is favorable, no matter what happens tonight? >> scott, happy election day and thanks for having me back. we think so. and you had a great 20-minute discussion before i came on. what do we know? well, we had the vix, kind of soared from 15 to over 22 recently. just yesterday we saw massive puts being traded. there's hedging. all that negativity, we can get into the weeds of it, we think that potentially can be the

springboard to a potential another strong november. let's not forget, november is higher, the last 12 years, seasonality, but look at today's services number. this economy is strong. >> you think we're on the cusp of a plunge in volatility? >> we do, we think so. that's a great way to put it. so the vix was up around 22 just recently. the last 31 trading days we've only had one day the s&p moved more than 1% up or down, halloween, the big down day. so you've got all these potential volatilities, but we're not having it. look at what credit markets are doing. there's no real fear or monster under the bed when you look at the credit markets. there's a lot of worry, yes, but maybe it's undue, and once you get to the other side, you'll probably get an upward swing. i hate to say it doesn't matter what happens, but once we get through the election, we think the stage is set for a year-end rally. >> i asked the group during the conversation you were listening

to earlier whether the biggest wild card this week was actually fed risk, not election risk for the very reasons that you just suggested. backdrop is good, so many foresee the market going higher, no matter who wins. the fed, i don't know. our expectations have been dialed back. what if they get dialed back further? >> that's a great point. first off, i'll be clear, we do think there's 25 basis points coming and probably another one in december. i've come on all year saying inflation was last year's problem. but that could be the uncertainty this week that nobody saw coming and half the people on your network were saying wednesday, it's thursday this week. i'll just put it like this, we're up over 17.5% going into the month of november. 14 times this happened, november was higher 12 out of 14, december higher 11 out of 14. those two months combined were up every single time, 14 times

out of 14, up a lot going into the final two months. that's just one stat, but i think it's one we would not want to avoid once we get the fed out of the way as well. >> the other stat that sort of hangs people up is valuation. how are you thinking about the price you're willing to pay for stocks right here? >> great point there, valuations are a little pricey, especially large cap. last month we talked about technology. we are more neutral, because that's the prisceyer parts. small caps are historically cheaper. last week stock market was down, yet small caps were up. outperforming again. with the strong economy, small caps look good, cyclicles and industrials are areas that are growing that aren't wildly overpriced, i guess. at the same time, we've all seen the numbers, valuations matter in the very long term. again, that's why, your term, 6 to 12 months, we're not overly concerned when you have record

earnings coming in. >> you're neutral tech. why? >> similar to what i just talked about. it's had a heck of a run. the valuations are some of the highest out there. and, again, we say neutral, it means you're bearish. the money we run at carson group, we have a lot of tech exposure, we're not going overboard because we think it's some of the pricier parts of the market. we like communications services. >> you're not overweight -- like 30% of the s&p? >> right. >> you're not overweight in the tech sector? >> that's exactly what i'm saying. we are overweight to small, mid caps, industrials and financials when we look at the 30/60 portfolio. we're not overweight large tech names at all here because they're the pricier part of this market. >> and you don't think there's risk to any part of the trade that you like by virtue of a backup in rates? >> listen,there's always risk, there's always things we get paid to worry. >> legitimate risk. i know there's a risk we could walk outside and get run over by

a bus. legit risk. the ten-year starts to back up further, that the first thing to crumble under that weight is small cap stocks. >> small caps, mid caps. you're exactly right. maybe cyclicles. and all we know is the most recent data, we haven't started to see inflation coming back. we'll get clues from the fed obviously this coming thursday. but the reality is we're not seeing any major warnings. the employment cost index just came out, lowest number we've seen in a long time. there are different parts of costs that are quite low that aren't showing any major worries, why we would expect to see yields soar higher. geopolitical risk, black swan risk, but drastically higher yields. don't expect it, but that could upset the apple cart. >> i appreciate the deeper explanation. thanks. once again, "closing bell" up next, we check the biggest movers. >> so accounting issues causing trouble for one food producer.

we'll bring you the details after the break. clem's not a morning person. or a... people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for clem. let our expertise round out yours.

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're

sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

we're about 15 from the bell. let's get back to kate rooney for the key stocks that you need to watch. kate? >> hey, scott. so shares of archer-dan yells-midland falling today after missing estimates and issuing underwhelming guidance. plus, the food processer continues to struggle with accounting issues. the company plans to re-file results for 2023 and then cancelled its current quarter earnings call as well. and then shares of astera labs blew by expectations for the current quarter and issued upbeat guidance for q4. the chip maker is seeing surging demands, helping drive results higher today. thank you. >> areatppcie that. still ahead, super micro reporting top of the hour. we break down the key things to watch for. we're back after this break.

municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds

from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376. that's 1-800-376-4376.

your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire. visit indeed.com/hire another quick programming note for you. cnbc live all night tonight on election night. we'll have the results as they come in and reaction from the biggest names in business as well. it all starts at 7:00 eastern tonight right here from the new ehae.tockxcng up next, we run you through what to expect when super micro and devin energy report in overtime. that is inside the market zone and that is next.

♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. we have mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments, plus, two earnings releases out that are on our radar. super micro. seema mody has that. pippa stevens on devon energy. mike, i begin with you. we decided we were going to be higher today. we've been in a holding pattern. haven't done that much in the last few hours. >> that's true, not in the last few hours, and really every day seems to be mostly the market just sort of taking us back to something like a 50/50 type election odds outcome, and then if a certain part of the market kind of oversteps and goes wide and gets brought back, you saw that in treasuries and djt.

big picture, the market has been con consolidating and digesting. the s&p stocks, 8% or so off its high, yet we've managed to keep in the uptrend. services coming in solid. everything else seems to be working fine with the exception of long-term treasuries that came off the boil in the last hour or two. >> how do you feel about fed risk? >> i don't see it as really that acute at the moment. mostly because the market is still saying 97 chance we know what's going to happen. from there, i think we can live with the scenarios laid out, probably some degree of data independence for the next move or two, but that's probably coming from a position of strength, because if there's any slowdown in the fed easing process, it's probably going to be because the economy is hanging in. >> back to you in a second. seema, tell us about super micro. >> well, scott, as you know, a

lot is riding on this earnings report. shares of super micro have gone from being a favorite ai trade to now down about 70% from its recent high hit back in march, hit by accounting allegations which game to light by hindenberg and followed by a report of a doj probe. they were dropped as a client on october 30th citing transparency issues. when super micro reports tonight, investors will want to know if it has been able to secure a new auditor. if not, how it plans to handle a potential de-listing from the nasdaq. industry experts point to super micro's design expertise, that's why it counts nvidia's and elon musk's x as customers, scott. >> now to devon energy and pippa stevens. what should we watch out for? >> devon has lodged as they get set for q3 results and production levels have come down

from q2's peak. during the quarter, the company closed its acquisition of the base and assets and commentary into how that place into the 2025 setup will be top of mind. shareholder returns, whether additional m&a is necessary. capital efficiency trends and infrastructure constraints are also key themes to watch, especially on the call. now, the company has a fairly low break-even price of about $48 per barrel on wti, so devon should still generate plenty of cash with the company targeting roughly 70% of excess free cash flow to buybacks and dividends. the stock is modestly higher ahead of the print. >> thank you. we'll see what happens. pippa stevens. mike, back to you, you look at the sector split, pretty even. industrials and discretionary are certainly the standouts, but as we had already suggested, technology is having a nice day as well. >> for sure. and it's about a three-two-one

breakdown in terms of volume today so it is pretty much across the board. i don't think it's really trying to tell any sharp story. one thing that's interesting to me is that the volatility index is down by 1.14 points. people got hedged up going into the event. maybe there's a sense that we won't have to wait very long for decisive election results. that's what the market has maybe been most wary of, i guess, and trying to hedge against, this idea of suspended animation. who knows? i'm trying not to over-interrupt every kind of gyration in the market in terms of themes based on what's going to happen. but that's something that's notable today. it seems like we have the potential for investors to migrate back toward risk and using -- kind of seizing on the fundamentals as opposed to trying to trade these scenarios.

>> that would also theoretically take some of the air out of the vix, which has been more elevated than some say is justified or necessary with the s&p not that far away from highs. >> it's all based on over the next few days, this idea that you might want to be protected against some big volatile move. that's starting to bleed away at this point. again, you don't want to necessarily say that the market somehow knows what's going to happen. it's really been kind of of many different minds, depending on the day. and i think right now we can lean back on the idea that the economy is in decent shape, earnings have been coming through well enough to justify where the market has gotten to. the market is no longer really overbought, if anything, breath has been pouring in the last few weeks. most stocks have reset lower and they're ready to react to the macro as it comes through. we're going to be pivoting right to figuring out what the fed has to say and whether that's a friendlily message.

i think that's a familiar place to be. >> mike, thank you. that's mike santoli. i'll, of course, see you this evening as part of our election coverage. we're going to go to the s&p, up about 1.20%. the dow, 1%, we're ringing the bell. let's go into "overtime" with morgan. that's the end of regulation. oriental rise holding limited doing the honors at the nasdaq. stocks rallying with major averages keeping up their tradition on gains on a presidential election day. we've got three hours until the first polls close, just one hour to go until we start getting initial exit polling data. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell" "overtime." i'm morgan brennan. we will be all over the election with the issues that matter most to you