that will figure out -- that will figure out who the winners and losers are. but right now though there, are just too many political angles to every single stock story. just for you here on mad money, i'm welcome to cnbc your money, your vote. we're live from the heart of capitalism, the new york stock exchange. i'm kyle quintanilla as we break down what the elections mean for your money and the economy. riding shotgun with us tonight, the voice of the american investor, jack kramer, plus we'll talk to some of the

biggest names in business. including former scc director, hedge fund and former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez. let's get to it right now polls are closing in indiana, kentucky, vermont, virginia and in south carolina. in the first of the battleground states georgia. here are some of the calls being made this hour. nbc news confirms donald trump as the winner in kentucky. while kamala harris is projected to win vermont. meantime the battleground state of georgia too early to call. as well as indiana, south carolina, and virginia. also four of those states too early to call. let's see where the candidates stand. former president trump has 8. of the key issues influencing

voters perhaps none as important as the economy. nbc exit poll showing 30% of voters rank the economy as the most important issue. second only to the state of democracy. could the economy be the deciding factor in swing states? vice president harris of course, has focused on creating tax credits, addressing price gouging while former president trump has touted tariffs as a way to creating more tax. what a privilege to do this kind of coverage. >> especially here at the new york stock exchange. as a former policy makering a maker at the white house, the executive. >> thank you for having me.

>> what's at stake for the voters? >> there's a lot at stake but we could have little at stake. we have a house and senate election. and remember policy has to go through the house and senate. the white house is a dominant factor and they'll drive a lot of the initiatives but ultimately we need legislation to change a lot of the policies that are going to affect the markets. that are going to effect the way people think of investing their money. >> what comes to mind when you think about the different policies at stake. either from the presidency or from congress as far as investors are concerned. because we had seen this nice run up in stocks, mostly attributed to the trump trade. but his chances are good. >> we have. the biggest topic that people talked about. it's one of the key differences between the two candidates has been their view on tax policy. i think the reason we talk about tax policy so much is because the tax re reform was done in 2017. >> which was done. >> the personal side of it. i think people don't understand just the personal side of it has a cliff that ends at the

end of next year. so the corporate side will not change. the personal side will revert back to where it was back in 2017. as we all know, if we're going to open a tax discussion probably everything will be on the table. on the other hand if nothing is done whatsoever and congress cannot agree on a changes to what the law is today. there is a mechanism for just to revert back to where we are. now reverting back to where we are, is a complicated tax system. we simplified the tax system quite dramatically. we cut down the amount of brackets. >> so reversion back would be a problem. >> reversion back would be a two sided, 10 page 1040 form. you have itemized deductions. yes you would bring back more tax brackets and you would have the alternative minimum tax. the way we think about

investing, the way we think about deductions would change and quite dramatically. >> can you tell viewers why it was structured that way to revert. >> it was structured that way because when the policy went through it was done through something called reconciliation. >> we have to remember that. >> reconciliation is a way that you can get something through the senate with a simple majority 51 vote majority. you can do that for budgetary matters only. but when you go through reconciliation you have a very stringent set of rules that you have to abide by. and when you score your legislation, it has to score to the penny or underneath what congress has allowed you to spend in the piece of legislation. to allow that tax reform to score, the way we got it to score, all of us involved there was a huge group of people involved was to end the personal tax reform at the end of 2025. that allowed it to score. we all thought everyone involved thought it was more important to keep the corporate

tax unchanged. because corporations make 10 and 20 and 30 year capital investments. they need to understand the tax code that they're dealing with. on the flip side, individuals tend not to make long term capital investments and we thought that individuals could deal with a change in tax code. when we got it to in 25 if that's the year they got to it that congress would understood what was going on and if the tax changes had been as effective as we thought they would be and i think they have been. that congress may choose and we hope they would choose to extend the tax policy. >> so, it only, it only changes if we don't have a divided government, though. right. >> well i don't know about that. i think, i think it could change with a divided government. i think there are probably some places where a divided government could agree. it seems like both candidates were talking about bringing back salt deduction. it's a very large deduction.

i might call it a loophole. it's a very large loophole in the tax code where people that live. >> a lot of people in new york would be happy. >> i personally would be very happy. it's a loophole for people who pay a lot of real estate taxes get to deduct that. it seems that both candidates were in favor of that. it seems that both candidates wanted to potentially lower tax burdens on certain types of income. now those things are interesting but at the end of the day, they will cut down on the amount of revenue that the government takes in. i don't know if there's an appetite on both sides of the aisle to decrease revenue. especially as we talk about debt. >> while you're talking nbc news has now projected donald trump to win indiana. that is 11 more electoral votes and that will bring his total now to 19, sir. >> no surprises there.

gary. so look, you mentioned debt and deficit. neither candidate are talking about it but the market is thinking about it. we've seen this back up in yields. specifically at the long end in the 30 year yield. and worry is, that both candidates will increase the deficit by trillions of dollars at a time where our deficit is already a problem. how do you expect the treasury market to handle this election? >> so, remember both candidates are out trying to get elected right now. so what they've said during campaigning and what policy is going to be. probably will not be the same thing. you know, to get tax policy to change, to increase the deficit, both the house and senate have to go along with those spending bills. spending goes through the legislative process. so i think there will be some rational behavior in the house and senate. i do think there's quite a few members in the congress that are starting to think more and more about the problem of the deficit that we have. and that's before we talk about

the social security trust fund that we're getting closer and closer to the cliff of the social security problem. because the social security problem is a real problem. we are not going to cut back payments or benefits to retired beneficiaries in this country. so ultimately we're going to have to pay that payment out. you put that deficit on top of the deficit we're talking about the government. we just start compounding a bigger and bigger problem. every day we're getting a day closer to that issue. >> you're not worried about that election. you don't think that the bonds excel. >> what a normalized yield curve looks like. i think we're back in this discussion that we have a positively yield curve. right now we have a yield curve that is starting to become a

positively shaped yield curve. we have seen rates go back 50 to 75 points. we don't yet have enough steepness if you think it's 3- 1/2% i think it's moving up if you see more and more strength in the economy and you now have so years at 4.25. you pretty much have steepness. that's not even steep enough. you can see the 10 year rates continue to go higher if you don't think fed funds is going dramatically lower. yes the feds are going to cut rates i believe 25 basis points this week. there's a long way between here and the fed funds. >> i wonder how you think how the ceo has weighed. elon musk. vocal on both sides. are there things shown as a good picture of how corporates

are thinking about either scenario? >> i think every ceo and every corporate has been weighing the outcomes of the election. and you have to. if you're making 10 and 20 year capital commitments and you run your business for a long term shareholder value creation. you have to think about the regulatory environment you're dealing with. you have to think about your tax environment you're dealing with. you have to think about what you can and should do in an environment you operate in. where you need to manufacture, where you need to import where you can't import raw materials. all of those imports have to go into your thinking as a ceo. i don't think there's a ceo in this country that hasn't been thinking about what the potential outcomes of the election could have on their business. >> you mention regulation. stay with us. we want to turn to the key issue right now. president trump has swiftly

over the country's regulators.. we welcome, jay. good evening. welcome. >> good to see you. >> how much do you see a gap between harris and trump on the regulatory agenda. >> gary did a good job in explaining that a lot has to go through congress. the regulatory agenda is one that does not have to. you will see a stark contrast between the second trump administration and second biden- harris administration. i do not expect a harris administration to depart very significantly from the regulation and the regulatory

approach that we have seen during the biden administration. >> which would you characterize as? >> hyper active. as the courts have found in many cases beyond the law. >> has it hurt the economy. we're looking at an economy that has been pretty good 4.1% unemployment rate. stock market at record high? >> i think if you ask ceos as you were just talking about do they think it has impeded what i would say is, growth enhancing measures whether they are mergers which is the thing we talk about the most or other measures they would say yes. they would say yes that they're hampered. there are industries. everybody believes the banking measures need to serve communities. but there's a lot of efficiencies to have had with banks consolidating. >> how much of an impact do you think it has on the economy.

the regulatory agenda. >> i agree with jay. i think enormous. this is one place where personnel is policy. one of the jobs of the president is to appoint personnels in the regulatory world. and we see it. we see it right mow in the harris, biden agenda. we see what some of those regulators are trying to do. because i think they've lost almost every court challenge they've had. but they're trying to put their personal views on very stringent very tight regulatory. >> ftc. they would argue with that. they've won some. what does an ftc look like under a biden-harris. we heard jd vance his running mate praise the head of the ftc. >> i think both the harris and the trump administration do agree that you should have an eye on america on regulatory policy. i think there's a narrow slice

where that overlaps. >> one thing that she has said that biden never said, raising this notion of appointing a republican to her cabinet. do you think there will be no directional. >> in my lifetime no second term president has moved to the middle. >> second term president? >> i consider harris a second term president. she's been there. she has said i'm not going to change. i agree. on other things you can find an agreement, not on tariffs.

>> would be wiped out via tariffs. something he has consistently promised. >> tariffs are an important tool. tariffs used effectively are very important to secure jobs and interests in this country. we've used the example of chinese evs are being imported into the united states. they do not have to pay living wages and they can pollute the atmosphere to make those cars. when you sit down in the white house and look at some of these tariffs especially tariffs on input material. when you're importing raw materials, you're inputting to manufacturing. you're compounding a problem. i think, it's easy to say blanket tariffs. i think when either one gets elected and they sit down and they look at the tariffs

policies. because the tariff policies are not different very much. when they sit there and look at tariffs i think they will have to evaluate product by product, tariff by tariff and decide what makes sense for our economy. how are we protecting jobs in the united states. >> they would not want to raise the price of nikes here. >> i think you're right to raise the two together. because, i ascribe good motives to both. i think tariffs are about protecting high paying jobs in america. that's the motivation. it's not about increasing prices. on regulation, i don't question whether the regulators think the harris-biden regulars think they're doing a good job. i don't think it's as effective as they do. i do think they have the american worker in mind. >> we've been watching a lot of so called trump trades in the market the last few weeks. it's going to be an interesting

change. i'm interested to know what you think about bitcoin because of a lighter regulatory touch. for people who are calling the crisis bid on just disruption in general. >> look. >> i will take that. >> thanks a lot. >> no problem. >> when you fit regularly. >> i think on the yield curve i don't think it's a trump trade. i think we're renormalizing the yield curve. we're going to have more demand for year to date maturity. we have been financing our debt relatively short term. we have an awful lot of corporate debt and real estate debt maturing in the next year or two. there's going to be demand on the yield and we're going to go back to what i consider a normally positively shaped yield curve which we have been pricing in for the last, four

months. 5, 6 months almost. i think that is not as much of a trump trade as is a renormalization. >> how about strong dollar, strong stocks. was that part of the trump trade? >> i think it is not part of the trump trade. i think it's part of the over all economy. you started the whole segment talking about we had 4.5% unemployment. they've been okay when companies are doing well. when companies are missing the market is punishing those companies that miss. i think the market is being very rational. i think the over all market is going to continue to thrive. because this is a great place to do business and we have an economy that is doing fairly well right now. >> i'll tie the yield curve to bitcoin. either candidate is going to have to deal with the fact that we have financing the government.

if a corporation balanced their sheet. you can see the bit coin rally if you believe the trump connection is that regulation will be a lighter touch. >> he has said i'm going to be the bitcoin president. >> let's be clear, bitcoin is not highly regulated at the moment. bitcoin is classified as a commodity. it trades globally. the trading of bitcoin is regulated essentially by the market. it's actually a remarkable story. bitcoin and what i would say is the stable coins are two of the most remarkable stories of global transactions i've ever seen. >> a what would it take for you to go back to washington, gary? >> i don't know. at this point let's wait and see who wins the election. as you know, i just got one of the greatest jobs in america becoming a grandfather and i'm really enjoying it.

>> congratulations. what about you, jay? >> i loved my service. i really liked what we all delivered for the american people. the american people have the best access to financial assets in the world. there's more room to do more. but pretty happy about that. >> for grateful. >> i think both of us enjoyed serving our country and we're proud of what we've done and we're proud to have done it. if there's a way we can ever help out our country, i think both of us always want to be helpful. >> absolutely. >> thank you for being here tonight. important might. thank you sir. we'll see you soon. >> my pleasure. we're a few minutes away from more polls closing. one in a key battleground that is north carolina. we'll have a check on where candidates stand. the harris campaign says that trump policies will threat t enoenhecomy. we'll hear from both sides of the aisle when we come back.

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i with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back to cnbc, your vote. we're minutes away from polls closing. it's great to have you onset. >> this is a fascinating thing to watch unfold after this year of campaigning. look this election is a race to

270 electoral college votes and the difference makers this year are likely going to be just seven core swing states where we truly don't have any idea what's going to happen. those states are arizona with 11 electoral college votes. georgia with 16 electoral college votes. michigan with 16 electoral college votes. nevada with six electoral college votes. north carolina with 16, wisconsin with 10, and the biggest prize of all tonight my home state, pennsylvania with 19 electoral college votes. that's just 93 out of a total of 138 electoral college votes that we think are truly up for grabs tonight and on the race to election day these battleground states couldn't be closer with the economy and inflation the top issue on the minds of a lot of voters as they cast their ballots. so how can each side break the log jam tonight. for vice president harris the easiest path to 270 is through the great lakes. winning pennsylvania, michigan

and wisconsin would put him over. joe biden won his home state of pennsylvania. he also carried michigan and wisconsin with very small margins. but this is not 2020 and kamala harris is not joe biden. for trump, the easiest victory would be through the sun belt. michigan and winning georgia which he lost in 2020. arizona, while holding north carolina which was a very slim victory for him. north carolina is the only state that trump carried. 269 to 269 electoral college tie. that would throw the election to the house of representatives. all that uncertainty is why we watch and we wait tonight. >> we talked about how fun it would be to dive into the economic trends. michigan is a great example. unemployment and inflation maybe did not move the way you

would have expected. then you have to tie in the union influence. and the infrastructure and inflation reduction act influence. >> one of the things i'll be watching throughout the night tonight. we have graphics preprepared of how the economy is performing in each of these battleground states. so we can look at where each is. and see if these states are under performing or under performers. and see if there's any bear throughout the course of the evening. you've seen the republican party transform itself over the past year and become a working class, prounion party. reaching out for those prounions. achieving a lot of that when it comes to the vote. we'll see how they do with union leadership. this is a republican party that wants those union votes and it's reaching to them in a way they haven't before. in those states particularly in the great lake areas. a lot of union states up there.

>> sure. for example the union power is evident every day. boeing has been one just this week with the machinist. >> absolutely. >> this election one of the tightest in history and it's come down to the wire in many of the swings. seven states were won by less than 3 percentage points in 2020. let's get some perspective from both sides of the aisle. heidi highcamp, and a cncb contributor. former chief of staff to mike pence and a meet the press cnbc contributor. great to see you tonight. >> thank you. >> we were talking about grown game. i've always been curious on election candidate, how they calculate return. they indicate whether you're going to be turning out the way you need to turn out your vote.

you're counting every one of these votes. this is very detailed, very data driven so for me, i knew that if i did well in fargo for instance that i could win an election. if i could carry some rural counties in the eastern part which is how i won in 2012. i lost pretty handedly in the western united states. you know where you have to win and where you have the best chance of making up those deficits. >> is it of course perette early in the night. i should have done x in x part of the state. we should have poured more resours into this budget and not the other? >> no but what's obvious is i'm doing really well. they're turning out in bigger numbers than what we thought. if you talk to carroll mccaskel and me. if i get to this number i get

elected. in 2018 we all met the number but the turn out was high and the turn out went way more conservative than we first thought. you can get fooled by those numbers because you can meet your objective and still not win the election. >> we talk had this conversation over the course of the year off camera. but the economy shifted through, we have some breaking news. >> polls closing in three more states, battleground north carolina as well as in ohio and west virginia. right now nbc is calling west virginia for former president trump. north carolina though, still too early to call. as is ohio. there are 33 electoral votes up for grabs between those two. trump has 23 electoral votes. harris has three. we want to mention some key down ballot races as well. jim justice, that does flip a key seat for the gop as we all know. >> no surprises so far tonight, carl. but i do want to say at the

outset how wonderful it's been to be on social media all afternoon and see all these images of people across the country voting and really no disruption. polls are closing in states across the country. we have not seen any major disruptive incidents that was so much the fear going into tonight. it's really refreshing we've seen that to this point. everyone has had the opportunity to vote. everyone has had the opportunity to weigh in and we'll see what's next. >> i was about to ask you about political populism. you've seen the shift. including no tax on tips. no tax on social security benefits. these are aimed at working class americans. do you think that kind of thinking is going to be enough in a state like michigan today to put donald trump over the top. >> i don't think so. i think that, some of the early numbers that you are seeing so

far, i think is a little bit of a troubling trend. no doubt he won indiana. but you see a county like hamilton that he won by 17, 18 points in 2016. by 7 points in 2020, that harris is winning tonight by a single point. he's doing better in some of the really rural areas but they're not so much of a population there. i think the concern is how did we do in suburban america. that's what you're seeing. the populous policy, i do think it's worth going back to conversation you all had in the last segment that's important. i just want to amend something fairy said. -- gary said. he's right that the corporate tax expires next year. but there's no reason that congress could not trade off and raise corporate rates in america.

there's more republicans adapting a corporate rates. >> this is the woke you know coastal elite. >> and i think that the track record has been remarkable. 5 million jobs came back before covid. >> a part of this is protectionist. that's kind of what buy america is. there's no longer party many this country that is a free trade party. there's no longer a party that is really advocating a lot of kind of immigration and increasing the work force kind

of policies. and so, this economic -- everybody was shocked when people said if trump is in it, they are going to write in biden. >> he's one of the most prounion presidents we've had. his whole split with elon musk all started because he invited big car makers but he was not able to hold on. a lot of that moved from kind of establishing a collective bargaining right. to second amountment and more cultural issues. it certainly was rue in north

carolina. you saw a kind of black lash between what they say was elitist and democratic. i don't think they see that they're bargaining rights are jeopardized then they vote secondary issues. >> i think that's the point i want to echo. some republicans need they need to adopt a legislation for minimum wage. i agree 100% i think the appeal for union america is coming over to trurb trump is so crucial. it's moving them over more than the economic process skpwhr-z. >> i wouldn't see. >> i think it's clear that the left has been pretty close. >> i think it's kind of like abortion, think about abortion, why was it that why we're just now seeing women come out. massive amounts of women and men come out and voting on that issue. because you took the right

away. and so when people feel comfortable that my collective rights are going to be established. >> we want to have an issue that's a very cynical way to look at it. but you're kind of like the dog that catches the fire truck right. because of the political bash lash that a loot may be coming. >> it's going to be a huge. that market and i have a big disagreement on this. >> yeah, for sure. >> do you think corporates have corrected on this. >> there's a lot of pot pratt america went too far -fp . i think as a labor union vote, i think that changed. the rank in file vote, the

trump vote, it's more cultural. republicans think we toub et bracing. >> this phreut between the messaging on democracy which was a big say on say the vice president push in earned media and in rallies. versus the economy. where she hit price gouging and suppression. were you. >> i think the reality is republicans missed a huge opportunity carl. i think a look at the polling shows that 70% of america feels like they're on the wrong srabgt. this election should be a lay up for republicans and obviously it's phot. i think we don't mess around. i think it's forward. >> i will tell you and i have

said that before in this network, all she's doing is protesting. she's not going out there family how nobody was talking about insurance until she started talking about insurance. let's face it when trump says i'm going to lower the price in the grocery store how are you going to do that? >> certainly not by price gouging. that's what harris proposal is. >> nobody wants to talk about the affected deflation. we go back to all of these issues and think about as an economic issue. deporting millions of undocumented workers that are doing kwrobs that other paoepbt do. that will decimate the actual. we have to secure the border. so i think there's some missed

staoupbtss but can we tkpwáeu her a break. she only had 100 days. >> 100 days helped her. when you get back to the campaign and it was taking other and over. >> we do want to check futures. interesting session today. ire shoe you had it. futures events jt moving up 70%. widely see as a gauge, comes off of a late day sell off in the latter part of the regular session today. we also had a background check. i wonder what these because they don't have more information than we do sitting

at this desk. i do not feel comfortable taking on a trump trade. giving the information we have now on how this has gone today? someone is out there gambling. >> indeed. >> let's turn from e hr-p when it comes to trade and foreign policy. including our rerelationship of what is the the and mcneil managing director senior policy analyst at long view. great to have you both. mr. secretary, what do you think the conversation sounds like around the world tonight as other countries are waking up, going to bed or just waiting for our results? >> i think there's concern. i think there's you know there's a lack of clarity. and no one is really sure what

will happen after the elections. trade obviously is one of the important factors so if you take europe i'm sure europe is thinking about our position on ukraine-russia. if we support russia that's going to be a, an issue of friction with the european union, with nato. in latin america, they're thinking about the review. efrp is everyone is looking at it from a different lens. but i think trade is a big part of it. there is some options of president trump's economic cy that have really brig kwr-ss. i'm sure business watch that. the other one which could be a

massive big idea is deregulation. so, when we talk about how you reduce inpolice ininflation. how does the government reduce inpolice station. recall jerry ford when we were badges that said win the war on inflation. you know it's wow. we can all wear some stickers but that's not going to bring inflation down. reregulation, bringing down it will price of oil, of gas. that will bring down inflation. so that is a massive idea. it's hard to understand why we would try to limit oil and gas production in the u.s. when at the end of the day it's global climate change. the carbon that is over our air today was perhaps in the middle east two days ago. whether we produce it here or not is not the big deal. the thing is whether it impacts

our economy and whether it can help the american consumers. so for me those two things are very strong. the big question mark that the world is looking at is tariffs. you know, the red -r retd rick has been we're going to do 60% tariffs on china. 10 to 20% across the board. it's hard to do across the board on anything. so you know that may be just campaign talk at the end of the day it may be low every. tariffs have gone beyond a trade issue. you know they're linked to the geo political issues. if you're going to help our country support israel we may not slap tariffs on you. >> i want to switch to mcnear

for a second. dua do you how do you think republicans will react tonight and we're seeing these large tariffs. do the chinese already have a plan in place to counter the american move there? >> i think the chinese are very much prepared there time around. you will recall, no one thought this was going to happen in 2018. i think it shocked the world and certainly shocked china. this time around china is certainly prepared. they've spent a lot of time use. i think they're absolutely taking trump at his word. they've seen this before, they know that h-s not a bluff.

if he's not. >> what was your biggest worry. if the trump campaign wins today. they come into officer and early in 25, they're imposing massive new tariffs in china. >> i think we've seen them really focus on the agriculture sector. the voters know where constituents lie. they figured out this was the trump under belly. so they could target where it may hurt him the most. so i think when you look at those midwest states, that agriculture belt. i think we really have to be concerned that the chinese will do something like that again. however, we know amon that they are now able to look at critical minerals and other advanced sectors of our

economy. and really target there. that is one of the real concerns we have now, we're already behind the eight ball in some of these climate tech and critical dependence sectors. the chinese could really turn the screws in this particular area. >> that's a good focus on china and mexico given the news of the week. mcneil, talk to you later in the evening. we spent a lot of time breaking down the race. >> we could witness something we have never seen. republicans have a great shot tonight to take control of the senate. and the house is really anyone's game. let's take a quick look at the senate first. democrats have a 51 seat majority. we can already project that republicans have gained a seat in west virginia. not a surprise with joe mansion

retiring. we start the night at 50-50. democrats they have a really tough night. there are 7 very competitive seats that they have to defend. five of them are in swing states but two ohio and montana are seats that trump easily won in 2020 and 2016. let's just look at montana here for a minute. because trump had a huge lead there in 2020 about 16 percentage points. tester on the other side was reelected with less than four percentage points in 2018. that of course was the year when trump wasn't on the ballot so both john tester in montana and senator brown in ohio. they're going to need a good chunk of voters to help them. the only place where they're facing a challenge is in texas, and nebraska. one to keep an eye on.

if at the end of the night it's still 50/50. then the winner of the white house is ultimately going to decide who controls the senate. moveing to the house, republicans only have a four seat majority. something democrats could easily take away. there are only about two dozen truly competitive seats. right now i'm going to keep a very close eye on virginia's seventh district. that's right near the center of the state. democratic congresswoman spamburger is holding the seat. that's going to open a look at you careen vindman and derek anderson. and rated as a toss up. both harris and trump have put on housing on energy but much of what they're actually going to be able to accomplish will come down on control of congress. >> emily two questions, what you make of the call just now.

jim justice in west virginia. what do we think senate leadership looks like? are we talking about baraso and thune. these very rural senators running the senate. if they do in fact, take control. >> it's both really good questions. starting with west virginia this was not a surprise. the second we all heard that joe mansion was going to retire everybody started assuming that state was going to be flipping red. certainly justice there. former democrat switched to republican. someone who had a bunch of popularity mt. state. in the state. mitch mcconnell is stepping down setting up a race. we know we'll be keeping an eye on john borraso, john thune from these rural states. you have to remember john cornyn has thrown his hat in the ring from the state of texas. these are all folks that have

been in leadership in some capacity. their colleagues already know them very well. one of the most interesting things to watch is how they align themselves with trump or reagan or mcconnell. >> that will all depend heavily on what the results for the white house look like tonight and tomorrow. we thank you, emily we'll talk to you in a little while. if there is a split congress we know that could lead to gridlock. that's where kramer comes in. on a historic night. >> thank you for letting me play. the guests have been incredible and i like the fact that it's calm i'm not getting anyone saying tomorrow it could be a bowl or depression. people need to recognize it's

going to be pretty much the same for a while. >> what do you make of futures here? >> i felt there is a relief this thing is going to be over. i think a lot of people feel already what matters are interest rates. we just went through 70% of the country already. i think it sounds boring, but profits are what control what we do. and i know that there's a prism. unless there's an agency that says i want to shut down amazon. i want to crush google. i think that apple shouldn't be able to bring in product from china. it's going to be some what business as usual for us. as pedestrians that is. >> we can all point to, as you just did, regulatory touches. support for capital markets. how does that collide or conflict with the threat of spending. and a higher deficit and higher yields. does that suppress any upward

action. >> i think another great piece today. we better start talking about growth. i'm not hearing enough people talk about growth. we have to. the only way you can solve this deficit. we can't cram it down. anyone who has a bond or treasury. you're only getting 3%. we can only grow. i am do worry about something that happened in the 90s when i traded for living which was that we got interest rates at 7%, 8%. even when i traded at 81, 82, interest rates were 8%. how did i know put them in a 14%. the big risk is they're so appetizing. a lot of people are still thinking 5 is a big level. it's not a big level. >> i would imagine you would

rather have our hand. although you've been relatively bullish on europe. >> when amazon is incredibly bullish on europe. now you're making fun of me but largest bank in europe when they're really bullish. when you get a spanish pmi, no you have to pay attention at these countries they're doing better than any other country in the world. you want to put your money on europe. storm talking about how china is going to come back because we don't care anymore. you're not going to get that stimulus that's going to make you those numbers. write it off. give it an asterisk. >> on the list of concerns either outcome for the president where does fed independence rank for you? >> it matters tremendously because we have to have a fed that has some gravitas. when i think of all the things

that have to go right in order to make the stock go higher. i think jay is great. if his record were bad. if he was 2-6 i would throw him under the bus. he's play off bound. >> if trump wins is he in danger? >> i think so. even though he was picked by trump, i think pall is too much of an independent. he may say it's time for a new person. i don't think anyone would say that's not true. it would be terrible because pal is lynch pin about why the trade has been so good. forget it it's done. you can unravel, you spent a

fortune. you're first to get money, theoretically spent a fortune on different foundries. but we want what's already spent to be acknowledged and don't want to repeal a roll back chips act. chips act was a good idea. i still think we need, your previous guest was talking about china. my biggest threat with china has to be taiwan. we have to keep it independent. if we don't, holy cow, we're going to need every singled foundry in the world. >> you've been managing money and watching markets for so many cycles. does this one prowl you to trading. >> no. i'm not an index guy. i think you have to have index money. this is a market that's dominated by great american companies that have made fortunes. that you've been told to sell because you're supposed to be an index or bonds.

those people were charlatans. it's time to realize, remember people understood envidia, apple, meta. let them own it. mid-cap 600. >> no matter what happens tonight you're steady as it goes. >> you bet c ha. polls in 17 states closing at the top of the hour including the battleground state of pennsylvania. we'll get you numbers and analysis. 'lt lt, judge, scotwaer wel get you what stocks they're buying. your money your vote continues after the break. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur.

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ahead former fed president richard fisher with a look at how each candidate's economic and tax policies could affect inflation. scott wapner and the investment committee on how tonight's results will impact your portfolio, and the voice of the

american ceo, what issues matter most, with a number of the race to 270, now you can see former pu president trump with 23, vice president harris with 23. we can watch the futures as well. after some late day action in the regular session. we'll be paying close attention to that tomorrow at the open. it is 8:00 p.m. on the east coast, and polls in 17 states are closing right now, including battleground state pennsylvania. at this hour, nbc news is projecting former president trump as the winner in alabama, florida, missouri, oklahoma, and tennessee. while vice president kamala harris projected to win washington, d.c., maryland, and massachusetts. the other nine states include pennsylvania, currently too early to call. this is where that puts us on that number you just saw, former

president trump with 90. vice president harris with 27. we will continue to do that math as we work our way through a very long night. eamon javers, jim cramer still with us. your thoughts on these 8:00 p.m. closes? >> no surprises and no big battleground state called tonight. this is falling in line just as everybody had predicted. we're going to go later into the tonight before we see those battlegrounds. the networks are not going to call them very early, i think. they're going to want to see a lot of vote in key counties before they make a projection. we could be going late into the evening. no battlegrounds, no surprises, and also no unusual behavior at the polling places. we said this in the 7:00 hour. it's important to note there had been a lot of concern about something going bad today in the election. we're now at 8:00 p.m. everything is going smoothly, everyone is getting the opportunity to vote. that's a good sign for american democracy as we sit here tonight. >> getting a healthy diet of exit poll data. let's get to the latest on that with steve liesman with a break down of some economic takeaways,

steve. >> there are a few that are interesting. exit poll data shows democracy is the top for voters, the economy was in second, kind of a surprise, and the republic has a down beat view on the economy. nationwide, the condition of the u.s. economy being excellent, 5% good, 28%, not so good. do a little addition. that's 67% saying not so good or poor. inflation, a major issue in this entire campaign, and 21% of voters in the exit poll say social security been a severe hardship for their families. 53% a moderate hardship, and 28% say it's no hardship at all. in general, you can imagine how voters lean when they think the economy is more or less trouble. decide with the gop, that's the way it's been the whole election polling process. trumphas said he would drive down oil prices to reduce inflation. the u.s. is the world's leading producer. it's unclear how much more could

be produced and whether lower prices would hurt. he's also talked about cutting government waste and spending. harris is talking about price gouging and bringing down housing prices by boosting construction, and subsidies for home buyers. some are skeptical her supply can bring the supply of houses as she boosts the demand for subsidies. >> that drives me crazy. d.c. horton is the big home builder, she wants to give 25,000. how about find ways to be able to make more homes. toll is maxed. horton is maxed. they're not going to put up more homes, especially if they think rates are going up. the politicians are saying 25 gs is going to make a difference. they either need to build more homes or change some regulatory setup so you can build more homes, and that's not going to happen. particularly in a state by state. >> the regulatory is a big part

of it. i think the idea is she wants to give subsidies to local governments to approve more housing. >> great. >> that might be something that might help. >> you have to go and buy wood, and you have to by glass. you have to get the labor, the lead. it's not like it was when the politicians were younger. >> i would stop on the labor. that's a big thing. >> they're out of touch with how to build a house. >> look, we have a big housing problem in this country. it's been since at least 2008. we have a mismatch. kids can't find homes. it's good for futon. because that's where the kids are living. >> not too much about it. our diana olick was on the air talking about this. housing is one of the big sleeper issues in this election. it's one of the main ways they're feeling in their daily lives, housing costs. the cost of housing in every one of these battleground states is much more than it was just four years ago. that is a huge impact to people's wallets, the way they

live their life, you know, the old saying in politics is it's a recession when your brother-in-law is laid off, it's a depression when you're laid off. same thing with housing. when you can't get into the housing market, can't buy a house, that is something that just leaves a searing impact in people's lives and lived experience. >> the supermarket for harris is awful. >> she'll get the blame. >> i'm not going to pretend i go to the supermarket every week. i go to the supermarket enough to say, holy cow, how did that happen? i go to mcdonald's just enough to say, you got to be kidding me. >> the inflation rate has come down, but the price level has not. there's a thing, it's the two beers and a burger met trric. it used to be 22 bucks, now it's 30 bucks. >> the guy jacked up the food prices, people still buy it. >> got an $11 special.

you crush them if you get there at 5:06. breaker, they have good specials. it is too much to get a $12 burger. and that's why mcdonald's stock went up. burger king, they have to lower the price. >> you're doing your part to fight inflation. >> i'm doing my part by realizing that somebody else who's tougher on -- you can make more money if you're tougher than if you're nice in the restaurant business. the nice guy didn't pay off thing. >> i have seen some prices come down, at some of the supermarkets, you are seeing the price come down. what jim's talking about is in clinical terms, consumers have reached a certain price sensitivity. they have started to balk, and the only way to get them in the door is to provide lower prices. one more thing, guys in the back, i had that chart of trump's chances in the ten-year. this is an interesting chart that's been out there. i don't know if they can bring it up in the whole potpourri of

graphics. >> i like that. i'm gog ing to use that tomorro morning. >> something done by waells fargo. trump's chances of winning and the rise of the ten-year. this gets at this whole deficit issue. i'm doing your job, helping you set up rich fischer who's coming up in a minutes. this is an issue out there. an issue for the stop market. if this means higher deficits, the whole plan might end up being deficit neutral if former president trump wins, and you're not going to look to harris for relief on the deficit. the other thing i wanted to say was that in all of the preelection polling, the deficit's not here. it's not here. it's down here. it is not on the minds of voters. and therefore is not on the minds of politicians. >> democracy, that's good, people are thinking about democracy.

>> they can use their vote any way they want. >> one of the most fascinating exit polls is how high democracy is rating with people who voted today. it was the economy all yearlong. now we're seeing democracy top that list. that has to be good news for the harris campaign. their campaign has been about trump as a threat to democracy. but there are a lot of trump voters out there who say on free speech dprgrounds, how does tha shake out? i don't know. >> we showed it even during our preelection polling on the number one issue, but if you ask top issues, inflation runs away with it. it's inflation and the economy, and kind of everything else, but we're not seeing that in the exit polls tonight. >> wait a second, i can't get a job. the fact is there are people who can't get jobs in certain regions. we're taught as long as you get a job, a car, a house, the latter didn't follow anymore. you get a job, you can't afford the house anymore. >> i have been doing this

polling for 17 years. and i have to rethink my -- everything i thought about the importance of inflation to people's economic moods. we thought just what you thought, employment would be at least equal, each of the issue of inflation, but it has not shown that. a very sour attitude about the economy, and it's linked directly to prices. >> what about wages? because wages have been going up too. a wash with inflation. >> it gets completely lost. >> here's the thing. >> i listen to steve all the time. >> wages have been going up. that should mean inflation is a wash. >> they don't feel the wage gains or take credit for the wage gains because of their own hard work. that's why their boss gave them a raise. >> the greatest stock market in history. no one feels like they have gotten wealthier for it. they have all of those devices to save. no one feels like they put any money away. it's been one hell of a run.

>> we have to talk to jim more about this. what's been fascinating about this, no one has believed in the expansion since day one, and no one has believed in the stock market, however, it strikes me that the lack of believing in the stock market has been a component of why it's gone up. >> yes, it's a wall of worry. >> you have to do silly things. for instance, i couldn't get anyone to buy nvidia in 2016, 2017, i'm naming my damn dog nvidia, and saying thank heaven you named the dog. >> as steve mentioned, let's bring another voice into the conversation, richard fischer, former dallas federal reserve president, and cnbc contributor. i'm sure you have been listening to this entire chat. >> i have. >> i don't think jim has enough energy. >> what is it about the destructive mind set of inflation, right? >> look, here's the real issue, i'll throw out numbers here, so the u.s. government's revenue in

fiscal year 2024 was just ended, is 4.92 trillion. out of that, they spent 950 billion on interest on government debt. >> right. >> and they spent 826 billion on defense. two points. one is no major power in history, we can go all the way back to the roman empire, the ottoman empire, the spain, happensburg, england, when they start paying more interest on debt, then they become a declining power. that's historically proven. second point, and i'd love to get jim's view on this, imagine a company as a percentage of total sales or revenue spent 19.3% of their revenue on interest on their bonds, what company would survive that? none. so we're in this predicament, i haven't heard either candidate

trump or harris discuss this. how does that make this safe for democracy or make america great again, when we're shoving out all the money to pay interest on government debt, and very importantly, we're rolling over 2% plus debt, and now having to refinance it at 4 1/2 or 4 plus. so our interest bill is going to go up. we're in a world which is seriously troubled and threatened. we're paying more interest again than we are in defense. and both of these candidates have proposed programs which would ramp up the deficits, and therefore are going to increase the interest burden even further. i'm very worried about it, as steve pointed out, the polls don't show much concern about this, but trust me when the ten-year, which i thought was a great graph, if it were to be subject to bond vigilantes, and go through 5%, 6%, 7%, we'll pay

attention. it's going to hurt everybody. and it's going to hurt employment, it will roll over into inflation. but my golly, we haven't heard either trump or harris talk about this issue except for proposing deeper deficits, more spending, higher interest costs. >> richard, i got to just ask the question, which election have you been watching? this is the election of tax cuts for everybody. >> i know, that's what i'm saying. >> spending for everyone. this is not that election, richard. i think you're watching the wrong election. nobody is talking about that. it's just, you go to philadelphia, and promise tax cuts in philadelphia. you go to arizona, promise tax cuts there. jim has a -- you wanted jim to respond. i don't want to take that away from him. >> look, i think it is amazing, richard, that we can talk about how climate change in 2050 could start hurting the ozone. really kind of hurt our skies. we have this thing, which you're absolutely right, 2030.

in the '90s, we would sell stocks aggressively, ahead of every bond auction because you never knew where the incremental dollar would be. it's going to happen. >> you know who is talking about this today, larry fink had an op-ed in the "wall street journal" today saying that the way out of this problem is growth, right, that's the only way out of it. i think that's right because my experience in washington is politicians are not going to take the political pain that it's going to take to make those kinds of serious cuts. >> we did that during the clinton administration, we grew our way out of it. >> breaking news from nbc news, south carolina for president trump, gives him nine electoral votes. we continue to watch some of these projections come in along the east coast, go ahead, richard. go ahead. >> i think jim absolutely right. this isn't the issue right now, and we have a benefit, which is we are the serve currency of the world. there's no competition. china has faded. japan is stagnant. the europeans are in a worst

budget situation than we are, and they're being threatened by putin. they have to ramp up their defense spending. so, you know, steve will remember, i said this some time ago, we are the best looking horse in the glue factory right now. >> richard, what's also true, and this is the good news, you compared the debt service of the united states to the total income. if you compare it to assets, we're not doing too badly. we're a very wealthy country. we have the means to pay, if we want, and by the way, to assuage those bond vigilantes you spoke about, the key here is to show a plan over even a long period of time, which brings up an interesting question. did we really want divided government or if there's stuff to do, do you want unified government so that one party can fix the problems that are out there or at least -- >> we want civil government.

we don't want 1859. we had people who were genuinely hoping to wreck the country, and they proceeded to do so. we want people who are talking, people from both sides of the party saying this is a real issue, let's figure out how we can grow. everybody who's civil seems like a fuddy duddy, i'm watching these names, who's that person. >> this goes back to what paul ryan said a couple of years ago, you used to make your career in legislating by compromising, and now you make it by getting a million followers on social. >> exactly. i have to tell you that the people on triktok are more civi than some of these people in washington, and tiktok is a nightmare. >> richard, it strikes me that what we're going to need to do is no matter what the spending or tax plans are, the fed can't change them but has to address them, and it strikes me that if

we get this unbridled spending, these unpaid for tax cuts that are out there, if it all ends up being very stimulative and causing the government to issue more and more bonds and debt, that the fed has to respond. can you talk to me about how you might expect the fed to respond if some of these, all of these plans end up being turned into law? >> well, i think the worst way to respond would be to monetize that debt. and we struggle with this historically, when we have done it, we have done an enormous amount of damage to the u.s. economy, historically. so i've heard president trump say that he wants to influence the fed. i understand that. it could be harris. i have no idea. that would be a disaster, as far as i'm concerned. you've got to have an agency that has discipline. the best thing that could happen

here, i hate to say this, is for rates to go up significantly so that people pay attention, and they realize they have to do something. remember, only 27% of u.s. federal budget spending can be affected. the rest of it is locked in. so i'm hoping if, say, trump is elected, that he's going to actually tackle the tough decisions of cutting back on spending and dealing with the number one cost factor, which is welfare and all the social programs we have. as unpleasant as that would be. i would hope that harris would do the same thing. neither of them have talked about it. one thing i think we have to remember, carl, and i was tutored and i had as my mentor, george shultz, he used to say that when it comes to congress, which is where the purse strings are, when it comes to spending money, george shultz, one of greatest public servants in history used to say there's no

difference between democrats and republicans, with one exception, democrats enjoy it more. that was it. if you look at that infrastructure bill, all the protests that took place from republicans, they voted for it because it benefits their district. >> and when it came time to cut the ribbons, they were there for the ribbon cuttings. >> exactly. schultz was right. >> do you think that that kind of fiscal discipline can only come from a president who will not run again? and would that be trump? >> well, we'll have four years if he gets elected and then he can make unpopular decisions, not worry about what's going to happen next. let's pray that if he's elected, that's the case. again, i'm worried because i think only if we have a bond market strike, we have a bunch of failed treasury auctions, this happened in canada, many many moons ago, they had to change their whole structure, only then will we pay attention,

our politicians pay attention. and we're so lucky, jim pointed out, again, because we are the best looking horse in the horrible glue factory right now, deficit glue factory, everybody comes here. i hope that continues for a very long time. >> richard, these are good times. >> i agree, steve. >> gdp is strong. unemployment is low, stock market is booming, these are times we should not be running these types of deficits. >> we screwed up. >> what happens when we have a t downturn, if we have a downturn, what's the capacity of the government to respond and do what governments could do and should do, which is to help people out when times are tough? >> we agree it's a strong country. i don't want china's hand, europe's hand, i don't want latin american hand, what i see

about us, we have great natural resources. we can grow. we don't have a plan to grow, and we don't have a plan to save. we don't have a plan to save the deficit. no one is talking about, richard is right, we get a spike in interest rates. it's just going to be the other party. no one is going to sit back and say, wow, we have to sit in a room. we can't do it. we can't take, okay, we have a ten-year auction coming up. if that went to six this week, that would impact people, but it's just going to be incremental, incremental. >> where's the edge of the cliff? we're walking blindfolded -- no one in washington knows where the edge of the cliff is. >> it's an invisible fence. >> therefore they're not going to stop borrowing. markets have said that's fine. the bond market doesn't blink in american borrowing right now, and when it does, as you point out, it could be a very bad thing. but until those politicians see

somebody flashing a number at them and saying this is the number, this is the limit. >> rick santelli and i have an interesting debate going on. >> you did that back and forth thing. >> rick grades the ten-year auctions by how many indirects and directs and the interest rates, i grade it on the idea that they actually did it. i give a pass too. >> i saw you get the b today. >> if they're able to sell 70 billion and it went off without a hitch, i'm happy with it. >> look, i'm worried. >> get it out the door. >> you ask young people what they say. that's why i'm in bitcoin. that ought to solve the problem. doesn't really address the problem, it's circular reasoning. if it's incremental and goes up over time, they'll come at auction, where we'll say it's too much. in the 90s, we thought it was too much, then people got a little more serious, but 7 and 8 didn't deter people. it took a paul volker to make

things tough in previous generations. you and i both know that period. >> there are rays of sunshine, by the way, and i hope you'll forgive me for pointing this out. i live in dallas, i'm a texan. texas's gdp grew 6%, actually a little less than that, 5.8% in 2023. i'm beginning to see detroit embrace capital formation and becoming pro business. if you're antibusiness like some of these new york, california, et cetera, people leave. if you're pro business, people immigrate in. >> business people are the highest rated people in terms of honor and integrity in this country right now. >> people are moving into new york city. new york city is not losing population. i'll take it when we deserve it. we don't deserve it. new york city is doing well. >> we have to grow out.

>> there have been some corporate migration. the kids love it here. >> we got to run. >> california is not. we're seeing massive -- my point is there are examples in the country, texas or whether it's utah or whether it's michigan. >> huge swath of the country is good. huge swath. >> that's a good example, and i do think we'll find other people k copying that, copying florida. this will right itself, and we need to have responsible government. >> always love the guy. >> when we come back, we'll look at how tonight's election results might impact your portfolio. scott wapner and the investment committee, our live coverage from the new york stock exchange continues after this.

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reliable 5g, plus wifi speeds up to a gig where you need it most. xfinity mobile. now xfinity internet customers can buy one line of unlimited and get one free for a year. welcome back. we want to get to a down ballot. north carolina governor goes to democrat josh stein. we're going to be watching this one, of course a widely watched race between him and mark robinson. >> this is a fascinating one. donald trump needs north carolina. this is a state, it's the one battleground state that he won last time around. we're nowhere near close to a presidential level projection here, but you wonder, the mark robinson scandal in north carolina, how much of an anville that is on republicans in that

state. mark robinson got in some political hot water for inappropriate comments he made on a porn forum that surfaced and roiled that race. donald trump tried to distance himself from robinson. robinson going down in defeat in north carolina tonight. that might have an impact on the top of the ticket. you're going to have to watch for that, whenever we get to a north carolina call. and take a look at the economy in north carolina, too. this is another differentiator. we've got graphics of the battleground states and how the economy is performing there. look at the right-hand side of the graphic. inflation there. january 2020, 2.6%. september of '24, 1.9% in north carolina. that is directionally a good number. it's also lower than the national average of 2.4%. inflation, the big economic worry for the harris ecampaign,a little bit better in north carolina than some of these other battleground states. those two things together, maybe you would say that adds up to a bullish night in north carolina for the harris campaign.

they've got to be looking at those tea leaves tonight. again, way too early to say what direct direction. >> the other thing we have not mentioned. another thing about election night this week has been the lack of natural disaster. north carolina went through helene and the ability to vote. fema response became a loaded topic? s >> it was impressive to see the efforts made to make sure people could vote. they had pop up voting there, in tents, and people showing up in the wake of this incredible devastation in their area to go and vote and participate in the democratic process that we're all participating in tonight. that was kind of inspiring to see. how does that shake out in terms of the political parties? maybe there's some anger on the ground, if you think that the harris administration, biden/harris didn't do enough in terms of fema. there were rumors that were untrue about fema not having money, not being on the ground. maybe that had an impact as well. if you're in the harris camp tonight, looking at that

governor's situation, you think, hmm, that might be good for us. >> certainly. and this is one of the games, certainly, the political press likes to watch. the where you place your assets in the final days of the race, and former president trump did do quite a number of appearances in north carolina. >> we saw former president trump in raleigh, north carolina, yesterday, carl. i mean, that was something that raised a lot of eyebrows, also, the idea that if this is one of the battleground states that you have won previously, this should be your safest battleground state, the fact that former president trump was there yesterday shoring it up at the rally in raleigh might give you a sense of that as well. >> some polls closing arkansas. donald trump the projected winner, picking up six electoral votes, bringing his vote count to 105 and harris to 27. polls in 15 more states, including swing states michigan and wisconsin close in about half an hour at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. that is going to be hugely important to this race.

throughout the evening we are breaking down how tonight's election results could impact your portfolio. we have assembled a team of some of the sharpest minds on the street. let's get to scott wapner. >> we have a great group. joining me throughout the evening, cnbc contributor, josh brown, the adam parker, courtney garcia, senior wealth adviser, payne capital management, and tom lee, head of research, also the cio of fun strat capital. josh, i should note, the futures are up at this moment. thinly traded, light volume. we enter the evening with stocks only about 1 1/2% from record highs. how are you thinking about the fate of this rally no matter what happens sntonight? i think what the public wants is some level of certainty. we don't even have to have a result tonight for people to say, okay, i have a sense of now what the fight is.

i think it's been so huge and one of the most interesting things about this particular election day, prior to 1984, they used to close the markets. we have only had 11 of these. i don't think a lot of people know that. in this particular case, we have had the third best ever during the day. if you look over the last month, we went 30 straight trading days without a single back-to-back down day. that's like the best version of this we could have possibly asked for heading in. i think some part of that, a lot of people, consensus over the summer was i'm going to wait it out. i think there's going to be a lot of volatility in september, october, and then maybe i'll do something. we didn't get anything like that, and i think that's why over the last couple of weeks we went out with a vix 20, historically on election day, you're more like 24, 25. >> most of the notes today, center around the idea that equities are attractive, regardless of what the outcome is tonight. what do you think?

>> that's absolutely true. realistically, you're investing in companies, priced based on earnings and profitability. when you look at how the economy is doing, gdp is growing, unemployment is low, profitability is coming in strong, and all setting up for a good end of the year. i think what markets want to see, and josh, you made a great point about this. they want an outcome. i don't think it matters what the outcome is. who's going to be in the office the next four years. >> get the clearing event out of the way and focus on the fundamentals, which you suggest are really strong, the bull case is in tact, unless you get some sort of outlier policy decisions. >> i think the two things that matter for investing are changes in perception about rates or growth. i don't think this impact will impact that at all, as i look out two, three years, the risk reward skews to the positive, the only thing that could change that path is a meaningful growth

scare, and we have austerity, and changes the rate profile, i don't think that's the base case to position at all for the time being. >> tom, generally bullish, do you remain so? >> i think the only difference, and i agree with what courtney said, mark is going to rally into year end. you get the uncertainty out of the way, i think there are significant sector differences depending on who wins the white house. we're all watching the same things, really things like crypto and small caps and even currencies. i guess maybe the only thing i would interject, there's a small outlier chance it's a contested outcome, and it's hard to find how to price it into equities. >> once you get that out of the way. you focus on what the backdrop is as i suggest, you focus on the fundamentals, economy's strong, the latest ism services read today. was the best in a couple of years. the best back-to-back reads we have gotten in a couple of years. the fed is cutting, pent up

demand for m and a. that backdrop exists, other than m and a necessarily, no matter who wins. >> i think so. the number one i focus on for stocks is gross margins. most companies can have gross margin expansion. you don't want a short stock when margins are coming up. >> delaware, nbc news calling it for vice president harris. that gives her another three electoral votes. that's going to bring her total to 30 as we await morepotential decisions at the top of the hour. >> back to adam parker. you have made the argument that margins are going to hold up. earnings are going to remain strong, the stock market has been trading north of 22 times earnings. >> most bullish thing i can say is earnings grow 9% a year. i don't see why that won't be the says for the next several years. the end of the decade, 2030,

you'll be at 10,000 or so s&p, and maybe higher. you'll see more productivity in the earnings front. you get rid of the certainty event, whenever it is, tomorrow, the end of the week and look at a group of companies with strong earnings growth. i want people to stay invested. >> i want to go back to what tom said about a contested election. right now, what's interesting is that's the base case. i don't think anyone is looking for a concession anytime soon. even, regardless of which way things seem to be leaning, what's interesting is when you go back and look at the two most contested elections in recent history, you go back to 2000. george w. bush, al gore, they went down to the wire, they got the dow closed down 25 points, it was about 10,000, and a 5% drop in the dow for the five-week period during which they were all in court in florida. you look back at 2020. you actually had a 12% positive total return from election night through inauguration. in fact, even on january 6th,

the s&p 500 was up a half a percent. even if we don't get that closure, that certainty that we all crave, it may not matter, given the trend and the strength that we've seen going into it. >> on that note, courtney. if you look back at the average annual s&p 500 return by how congress is set up, since 1936, democratic presidents split congress up 16%. democratic president, republican congress, up 16%. republican congress with a split, up 15. with a democratic congress, up 12. and on and on. y couple more examples you're up mid, double digit percentage points no matter what happens. >> these businesses are going to figure out how to do business and become profitable regardless of who's in office. we can talk about this until we're blue in the face. when you look at trump versus obama, the s&p from inauguration day to inauguration day was almost exactly the same.

you want to have an investment strategy in place. don't base these decisions based on the presidential. certain sectors might do differently, you want to stay long here. >> we haven't talked about a fed decision coming this thursday. >> is that this week? >> once you get past the election, of course, and maybe we have some undecided parts of that election. yields have been backing up. made the market a little bit nervous. for the most part, it's been as resilient as ever. how much of an issue is that? >> we learned over the last couple of years that rising interest rates don't hurt stocks, and rising rates can help pe because companies are a lot -- essentially protected from higher rates anyways, and i think you're going to -- i think as soon as this election is behind us, investors are going to focus on the fed, and the fed is dovish. i think the fed is not too comfortable with rising rates. i think there's almost going to be a chance of communication talking down long-term rates. >> i've got 6,100 as a price

target from piper sandler today. that pretty much matches the top estimates on the street. we're just shy of 5,800 as we speak. year end. does that sound reasonable to you? 61? >> if not higher than that. >> could be there tomorrow at the open. who knows. 3%, i think the implied was 1.8 coming into the election. that seems like, you know, people are always too low, and have to raise them, you know, as the market rallies. look, i think the election almost doesn't matter. josh is pointing out, january '21. what happened in december '20. a pfizer vaccine. this is a problem. when you get past that, there's plenty of -- >> i have a sample size of one. no good? >> one's no good. you need a little bit more. >> maybe i just point out, you know, i had some meetings today, and clients, though, when they think 3% up side for the s&p,

then they start thinking analyzed rates for return on cash and bond. it's tougher for necessarily embracing stocks if the up side is 3%. >> we have had some calls over the last couple of weeks, relative to where stocks are trading in terms of the price you're willing to pay for them, because of that rich valuation, you may have muted returns in the years ahead, not even factoring in who wins the white house. just by magnitude if the economy slows at all, earnings don't live up to the hype and where the valuation of the market is, low single digit returns some say for the next few years. >> i think there's a tax component in that particular discussion worth bringing up. the tax cuts and jobs act is set to expire at the end of next year, the s&p 500, and the rates at which corporations are taxed, not all sectors are equal. one of the things my team is looking at is just this idea when you think about the highest effect of tax rate being in the

materials and in the industrials. there's something at play, your calculus might change what you want to be over or under weight. the total market effective tax rate is 19.3%. with a split congress, you have to believe people are going to look at that and say, what do i want to do here that's different than what i might have wanted to do yesterday. >> it's a perfect place to leave it. we'll be back in a little while with more of our conversation. carl, we'll talk positioning within this market in the next appearance with the crew here. but back to you. >> a fabulous discussion. we'll see you in a few minutes. scott wapner and the investment committee. a live picture of the candidates' watch parties. for vice president harris, taking place at howard university, her alma mater in d.c. and former president trump's in west d.c. as we get more pictures of those sites, we'll bring them live. major donors and

billionaires have made pushes for candidates this election cycles but the ceos of public kmaens ha companies have remained largely silent ahead of this decision. >> good evening, when it comes to following the money, there's a whole lot of it to keep track of in this race. this election cycle cost about $16 billion in total. that's the open secrets final tally of the money spent in the presidential and congressional races, puts it behind 2020 but ahead of all other contests in recent history. who is supplying all of that money. the biggest names, for trump, most prominently, elon musk has given at least $119 million since july, more to the down ballot races. other republicans have gone even further. timothy melon, haeir to the banking and railroad fortune, 165 million. tick and elizabeth eulein.

michael bloomberg, gave $19 million initially, reportedly another 50 million recently, and dustin moskovitz, reid hoffman, and far smaller totals than trump's totals, far more reliant on the grass roots donors. notice something about all of those people, this is a trend that holds true for most sport from business leaders for both candidates, all leaders of major companies or run their own firms or hedge funds. top harris backers fit the bill, mark cuban, bill gaetz, and the same is true for trump, bill ackman. the understanding is that the level of political division in this country means that so many public company ceos are worried about retaliation from their shareholders, their own employees or trump himself who has at times promised retribution against political enemies. people and business leaders haven't wanted to wade into the race at all. that doesn't mean they aren't working behind the scenes.

we have learned in recent weeks, ceos have been reaching out to trump, include k ling alphabet, amazon, meta. this is an indication that some ceos are taking steps to get closer to the former president as the chances of his winning have risen. they are trying to position themselves and their countries in the event he might win tonight. >> there's been a lot of reporting in recent days, amazon and "the washington post," at least andy jassy's attempts to begin with a prospective president trump. >> absolutely, they're positioning that way, as those chances of him winning have risen. it's not something we are hearing about on the democratic side. that says something about president trump, who he is as a candidate, and what he was like in the white house. all of us remember the sort of tweets that would go out about companies that would cause stock

prices to fall, the meetings and phone calls to get exemptions from tariffs on a oneoff base that he was willing to give out. ceos aren't playing that game with kamala harris because she doesn't tend to do business that way. they're not expecting her to. andy jassy and other folks are trying to get a head start. >> hypertransactional is the phrase that gets called out a lot. calls for boycotts, harley and apple in macy's in the cross hairs of president trump. >> john deere. >> for more on where the american ceo stands on the issues at stake, at post nine conference board ceo, and jeff sonnenfeld, senior associate dean of leadership studies at the yale university school of management. thanks for coming in. what a night. do you think there's some ase asymmetry of ceos because they think trump is more

transactional. >> i would say megan's report was very good. the headline is we've studied the support for gop presidential candidates going back a century since the creation of the party, and overwhelmingly half of the major business leaders in the country supported the gop presidential candidate. whether or not we're looking at abraham lincoln, the glee clubs of philadelphia, new haeven, whether or not it was taft or nixon or the campaigns of mccain or romney or bush, half the business community came out vocally and financially until 2016, hitting a wall, stopped, went to zero. 2020, only two major ceos and now, again, it's just one, elon musk. steve schwarzman, it's not a

fortune 200 or 300, that's the big news, the ceos don't want anything to do with trump, if he gets in, they have to do business with him, but the support has completely dropped away. >> we remember dust ups with the chamber of commerce, with the national retail feduaeration, t business round table, would you expect that in a trump 2.0? >> this is an unusual election. you have two incumbents running. in some ways, neither. you know what's going to come here. ceos just want to know the rules of the road. they can adapt to any set of rules, but you have to know what they are. they're trying to plan capital expenditures, investments, they need to know the cost of capital, the regulatory scheme, the tax scheme. the differences here are stark. they're talking about different things. then you have the whole trade issue, and what's going to happen. because the supply chains now

are around the world. global. if you start underlying tariffs, and skewing that. >> the consensus is lower corporate taxes, lighter m and a regulation, lighter government touch. why is there this friction. >> well, you know, it becomes personal at some point, i think most ceos have backed away. they have been burned by making comments involving themselves too deeply. they have to think about customers, employees, owners, the community, it's a multistake holder world. they have to be balanced and make sure in a divided world, why antagonize them. i think ceos have backed off and said, look, we'll adapt. we'll talk about the issues important to our industry. we'll adapt to whatever rules come down. >> except for this letter, jeff, that you coauthored with doug parker and a bunch of others in the past couple of weeks.

>> yes, that was just on friday. thanks for flagging it. it was 20 ceos, we sent it to 40 ceos who recently served. 20 responded, and the other 20 said couldn't you have waited. it's a dazzling list. they're still the chair or lead directors or on the boards of directors of exxon mobile, morgan stanley, microsoft, merck, regeneron, uber. they're very active players. to add to megan's piece, current ceos have spoken out in favor of harris. they don't get the same amount of attention. lazard, yelp, it's quite a number out there. and about 90 current ceos have spoken in favor. why are they upset about the

trump administration return. they're not sooe kn-- xenophobi. they're concerned about great skilled tech jobs that a third of tech start-ups that are over a billion dollars in valuation are created by immigrants. and that's millions and millions of jobs they're creating. they're also not protectionists, they believe in global trade. they're not isolationists, we're in an interdependent society, and more than anything else, they believe in the rule of law. not the law of rulers. they don't like this mercurial oneoff. you know, he starts fights owe boeing versus hlockheed, genera motors between ford. fights between pfizer and merck and johnson & johnson. divide and kwonconquer. he doesn't like collective action, and they don't like that. >> do you think corporate

leaders are looking at examples of disney, bud light, target, and saying i don't want to touch that hot stove? >> absolutely. we talk about ceos, they're not a monolith. we're talking about large public companies, ceos, the vast majority are small ceos. the whole taxation issue is important. all of the small business leaders are using pass through, if you look at the 1%, which people think of as the rich, the majority of small businesses, that's going to seriously impact their business, their employment, their ability to grow, and invest. that's a huge issue out there. set personalities they need to know what's going to happen to taxes. it's unclear here. if you have one or the other in the white house, it can only do so much if they've got a divided congress, which is the prediction coming out of this. you've got tax cuts expiring

next year. you have the usmca coming in. if you're moving supply chain from asia to near shore and using mexico, and trying to get the trade going, you hear about tariffs in mexico. it's shifting sands, nobody knows how to plan at this point. >> i imagine you go along with that. the recent escalation, in the past 72 hours got a lot of attention because of that, right? >> more back to the divide and conquer. i worked with the trump administration. very closely with jared on the abraham accords, and that was collective action, almost despite president trump. it was something the administration backed which was fantastic. when youlook at the mca and take a look at him playing mexico off against canada then or now or with the eu and nafta and nato, dividing germany and france, it's the mentality of divide and conquer scheme that is destructive and harmful. they don't like that.

they hate wedge issues. they don't want to be calling people per vvermin or this and . divide and conquer, if somebody is tearing apart the fabric of society, they will speak out. steve is right. they're worried about individual victimization. as we saw when delta was sent out, who provided a delta air cover when delta spoke out on an election law issue. it was american airlines and united airlines gave air cover. we saw that across the board, whether or not it's from pharma companies to finance companies is that they now recognize, the way to beat a bully is through collective action. tonight, tomorrow, sunday, ceos will stay silent. a decisive decision that favors harris, and president trump accepts that, they'll stay silent. if this is up in the air, and president trump declares himself a winner before the ballots are counted, steve, they will speak out. i know this factually. i have a few upstairs who just

reminded me they're ready, they did this in 2020. that 90 of them came together. 93 of them when president trump declared himself the winner when he wasn't. just like the "wall street journal" itself, you know, called him out just on friday for, of course, therancor and w he did denying the election. also, his policies on trade and regulation are not what many people, many pundits think, in fact, the biden administration has been far more favorable. you were pointing out in the last bloc, j.d. vance is far more pro regulation. >> there is circumstlarity. >> if you're a small business owner, how would deportation work? how would that process come about you're asked to provide information about your small

business work force, and how would you say good-bye to some of those employees? does that concern business? >> it does. it's illegal to employ illegal immigrants. undocumented workers. it happens. you see it in agriculture. you see it in restaurants, and some of the -- >> construction. >> and there is a labor shortage right now. >> 4% unemployment. nobody is being displaced by immigrants. >> this whole immigration issue is real, and you know, the question is are people going to get serious about it and address it comprehensively or just start throwing people out. another thing in the last bloc we talked about was the debt. i think that's another thing the ceos are concerned about. at some point, you have to deal with this spending, and ceos completely understand this because they run their own companies. they can't run it with, you know, 19, 20% of your revenue, you know, paying for the interest. >> it pains me to say that wharton did a good study. brand x wharton by taking a look, basically, it's three

times the increase of debt under the proposed trump economic policies than what we know of harris, and the biden administration, actually the deficits they cut it by 2/3, where they tripled under trump. >> businesses have been through a period of bigger debt costs, financing costs, it's painful. steve, jeff, thank you, guys. appreciate it very much. steve odlund, and jeff sonnenfeld. polls in 15 states close in a few minutes. three battleground states among them, arizona, michigan and wisconsin. we're going to get you those results, and avenue capital chairman is going to join us when tonight's coverage of this american election continues.

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welcome back to our continuing coverage of election night across america. your money, your vote. we are live from the floor of the new york stock exchange. the financial capital of the world. right now, the battle for the white house and the race to 270 stands at 105 for former president trump and vice president harris at 30. moments from now, polls will close in 15 states. 163 electoral votes up for grabs, and three key swing states will be front and center, arizona, michigan, and wisconsin. i'm carl quintanilla. a big hour ahead, avenue capital's marc lasry, we'll hear from jim cramer and of course we'll keep you on top of all the decisions as soon as they roll in. speaking of which, we will get to all of that shortly. fresh calls from the decision desk at nbc news, donald trump is the projected winner in the following states, north dakota with three electoral votes, the

projected winner of south dakota, that would give you another three electoral votes, former president trump will also capture the state of wyoming. another three evs, and of course the big prize of the hour is the state of texas, and its 40 elec electoral votes. texas has gone red since 1980. going to take you back to anne richards time. michigan and wisconsin, too early, arizona, also too close to call. this is a live look right now at one of the ballot processing rooms in maricopa county, home to phoenix and more than half of arizona's population. 2020 was the first year arizona went blue since '96, back when bill clinton won his second term. process has run smoothly. >> so far so good. that's exactly what you want to see in arizona, people doing the work of democracy tonight, and take a look at the economic

stats in each of these three key states we're looking at in this hour. you've got arizona, michigan, and wisconsin. let's see if we can start with arizona look at the economic performance of that state over the past four years. i know we have a graphic out there, if the control room can bring it up. 4.1%, that's the national unemployment rate and the inflation rate at 2.4%. we can compare each of these sates as we go through the evening to what the national averages are. in arizona, we've got an unemployment rate at 3.5% right now. that's, you know, not bad. inflation at 1.2% in the state of arizona. that's a pretty good performance. you're beating the national average in both of those key metrics for employment. how did people in arizona feel about the economy and the way it hits them. that's something to watch for. take a look in michigan also. take a look at that state.

that's another one where we think that could be maybe the swingiest of the swing stautes tonight. unemployment, 4.5% above the national average there. inflation 2.7% above the national average there. people are feeling the downside of this economy in the state of michigan as we watch those 15 electoral college votes in play tonight. as you look through all of these states. it's how the economy is playing out in real people's real lives. >> by the way, take a look at two of the campaign headquarters tonight. right now, on the left, howard university, where supporters of the vice president, kamala harris, are gathered, and on the right, it is west palm beach convention center. that's where supporters of former president donald trump are this hour. let's bring in our team to break down the results we have seen so far. at the exchange, senior washington correspondent, eamon javers, echelon insights founder

partner, patrick, and great to have you in. down in d.c., our washington correspondent, megan, early thoughts? >> you have seen things moving in different directions. georgia, that is a state where we have most of the vote in. a number of people are bullish on trump in georgia because the vote that came in from the rural areas came in early and came in very red. but georgia is obviously more than the rural areas, and it's more than the city of atlanta. you have seen exploding growth in the suburbs and the outer ring of suburbs where actually vice president harris is making gains, and watch for gwinnett county in particular. i think that's 16% in, and that's a county where democrats have been on the movement. >> it's early to start to look at which counties are in because it depends on the pocket of vote you're counting at any given point in the noight. what are you seeing in georgia

that makes you think this could be donald trump's night? >> certainly he has gotten -- it seems like he has moved fulton and dekalb counties, he has shrunk the margin there. those are urban areas that aren't as fast growing. there's also been some questions about urban turnout in georgia, in particular. so remember, harris could move the needle in a lot of suburban counties. but if she doesn't get the raw votes, tit's a problem for her. >> megan, what are you watching? >> since we were talking about georgia and gwinnett county, we were just down there just last week to talk to voters. as just mentioned, it's a fast growing, diverse county. when we spent 30 minutes on the street talking to five or six voters, we got a little bit of everything. some harris, proud trump, some proud trump, some quiet, some staying at home, underscoring how close it can be in a place

like that. while a lot of georgia is coming in more red than 2020, the atlanta suburbs are coming in bluer, they had swung big towards biden who helped win the state in 2020. that's what's going to help her win. while the state looks like it's leaning red, there's a lot to watch. a similar story in north carolina. i spent a big part of my life in north carolina. i'm watching this one closely. similarly looking at the county tracker, we're seeing western north carolina, parts of the state that are traditionally republican, coming in shifting blue. same with central parts of the state, catawba county, not a democratic area, shifting blue by six points or so. there are a lot of things out there so far tonight that are looking a little bit tricky for democrats. "the new york times" needle is pointing in the red territory right now. there's some reason to be concerned. everything looking a lot closer. florida swing really big republican, and that sort of

thing. we don't have anything from the blue wall. parts of georgia and north carolina could be leaning harris's way, it could be a long night. >> we'll be talking about it all hour long and all night. meantime, let's get to the judge, scott pwapner who joins s with a special guest. >> marc lasry, a harris supporter and donor as el. how are things feeling to you thus far? >> i think it's going the way we thought it was going to go. it's going to be close. i think the campaign is cautiously optimistic. they are sort of viewing that people are breaking, undecides are breaking their way. it's too early. >> i know you marvel like everybody who has already spoken this evening and people you talk to, just how uptight this election is, and these election cycles have become, and how divided and polarized we are as

a country. >> when you think about it, it's kind of shocking. you're going to have literally 150 million votes, and i think this election is going to get decided probably by less than a hundred thousand in all of these swing states. when you think about that, the next president of the united states is going to be the president who wins by a tenth of 1%. your vote really does count and we're seeing that. >> as we game this out, and it's all about hypotheticals, obviously, and it may be for days to come, what would a harris administration mean for these markets, do you think, which as i suggested earlier are about 1 1/2% from all time highs. >> i think you're going to see the market continuing to go up. i think the harris presidency is going to be positive. you have had positive gdp growth, and i think she's going to continue and do some new things in her presidency that will be positive for the economy. so i'm looking forward to it. >> i mean, whoever does win really does inherit a strong

economy, the subject of the article in the "wall street journal" the other day, really underscored that, the fact that you have a strong economy, the consumer is hanging in there. the quality of growth has been good as well, in terms of an increase in productivity that we only expect because of ai to continue. >> it is, but also you've got low unemployment. things are going very well. explain to me why this should be close? the economy is doing well. the stock market is at an all time high. unemployment is low. so what that means is over the course of the last four years, things have gone very well. and so i don't understand why people would want to change. i look at it and i go, i think vice president harris, hopefully president harris, will end up doing a great job and continuing growing on this economy. >> you didn't mention inflation. that's not been going great, even though it's a down a lot, people aren't feeling it.

inflation has come down a ton. prices have not. >> you're right, but it's gone down, right. it went up. we ended up raising interest rates to lower inflation. look, in every administration or at any time, you're always going to have issues, but you've got to look at it has this been more positive or negative? it's absolutely been more positive, and i think that's what's going to happen going forward. >> what dou you make of interes rates and where yields have gone, you make your living in the credit markets, which obviously have a big deal to do based on what happens with interest rates. are you surprised that they have moved the way they have since the fed did their jumbo 50 point rate cut? >> i am. i thought they would come down more. they haven't. i think part of that is everybody's still worried as to whether inflation is going to come back. i think what you're going to see is as the economy keeps doing well, the fed is going to keep lowering rates. i think next year we'll end up

being down another 50 basis points. i don't think it will be a hundred basis points, but the economy is doing well, and that's what you want. it's exactly what you said. the consumer is doing better. all in all, it's been pretty positive. >> have you reset your own expectations on where you think the fed is going to go from here? >> i thought the fed was going to lower rates more drastically, they haven't. i think they're going about it very slowly. and i think part of that is they're extremely worried about inflation. they're going to take their time. >> how do you view what a harris administration would mean for business? no secret, you know, that the biden administration is not held in the highest regard for the way that they've kind of kept business, i think, at minimum at arm's length, and maybe two arms. could that change? >> i think it's definitely going to change. i think vice president harris is different. i think she understands that business plays a big part. i think she wants to be president for the whole united states, for everybody, and try to make everybody's life better.

you need business to do that, and i think she recognizes that. >> why has it been so hard, so difficult for the democrats to at least, you know, extend an olive branch to business, appear more welcoming? i'm not suggesting a bear hug but at least maybe an armaround the shoulder of business? >> i think we're going to get a hug. may not be a bear hug. but i think we'll get a hug. i think it's going to be different. i think vice president harris understands the value of what small businesses are, what they have done to this country, so, i think you're going to start se seeing that. >> deal making, which has been almost impossible under the current administration, how would a harris administration go, lina khan, whether she would stay or go, how do you think of that in total? >> i think you're going to find they're going to be more in the middle. i think the party had gone a little bit too far left. i think you're going to find that at least for the harris administration, that they're going to try to keep on spurring

growth, you're going to have a little bit of lower interest rates, but you've got to be partners with business, and they're going to do that. >> do you feel more optimistic about the idea of doing deals yourself based on what, you know, whichever administration, whether it's a harris or trump administration? >> what do businesses really want? what do businesses want and people want are consistency, they want stability. ic you'ri think you're going to more under vice president harris. >> breaking news for us. >> nbc news projecting donald trump has won the state of mississippi, that's going to give him six electoral votes, and bring his total to 160 evs, vice president harris with 30. we'll continue to watch some of th these. again, the battlegrounds, we continue to monitor incrementally, no calls on those yet. >> what about taxes, what about the corporate rate, which, you know, former president trump is talking about reducing even further to as low as 15%.

what do you think is reasonable? >> i think at the end of the day, the biggest problem we have is we have a high def sit, close to $30 trillion. lowering taxes isn't solving that. is it better? are you going to pay less? everybody is happy short-term, but long-term we have to have a balanced budget. >> how focused are you on the deficit? which the market has been focused on periodically, but not obsessed with yet because the bond market hasn't forced the market to really face the music. is that going to change? >> it should. it really should. because sooner or later, you can't keep spending more money, and you can't lower taxes, and have higher rates and in essence that you're spending more on interest, so if your deficit keeps going up, that's going to be a problem. it may not be a problem for you and i in the next year or two

years or five years, it is a problem. sooner or later, the bond market, when it focuses on it, it's going to change drastically. >> let's keep the conversation going. he's one of the country's biggest real estate developers who oversees a portfolio of more than 400 buildings, also a long time friend and ally of former president trump. richard la frac. great to have you with us this evening! >> thank you, thanks for having me, and say hi to my good friend marc. >> he's here to say hi back. >> you can be a democrat and republican and still talk to each other. >> how are you feeling about this evening as you watch the returns come in? >> i'm not a political expert, but it seems to me like it's a jump ball, and we'll find out later in the evening whether or not these swing states are going to go in one direction or another, but it's clear that the country is pretty evenly divided about these two candidates.

>> you have a good view obviously what you do for a living in this which i, which almost everybody suggests is in a good spot. you feel like the backdrop is positive no matter who wins tonight? >> we're in a wonderful economy right this minute because everybody is working. as a matter of fact, we need more employees, not less. what frightens me is the, in my area, is this huge shortage of housing that's not being addressed particularly well by the current administration. and affordability of housing for millions of families, and people who want a decent home in a good neighborhood. >> it's interesting you say that, because we have been speaking this evening comparisons of whether it's more affordable to own or rent today, overwhelmingly more affordable to rent today, versus let's say

back in -- >> especially if you live in a red state because the regulation in the blue states has been, you know, too difficult to get housing built, and in the red states, rents are going down right now, not in new york, which is highly regulated, has had a housing shortage for over 70 years. >> you raise a good point about regulation in general. i'll turn to marc lasry, to participate in that part of the conversation. we didn't get there yet on the idea of lower regulation. how do you see that issue in general, business people, whether it's richard or yourself have to navigate? >> i agree with richard. you want less regulation. less regulation is better for business, but the problem is if you're the consumer, you may want more regulation. so it's a bit of a tension, and you've got to work with that. but i would say from a business standpoint, i would like less regulation.

i would like the markets to regulate what we do. >> richard, one of the issues with the affordability or lack thereof is where interest rates have gone. what's your outlook? mortgage rates remain high? >> i'm old enough to remember the 1980s, so interest rates by that standard aren't that high. there's no question that it's creating a terrible problem of affordability because home mortgages are about 7%, and the average person cannot afford to buy a home at this point. >> richard, back to you in a moment. carl has some breaking news. >> we continue to watch projections, this time nbc news projecting trump has won the state of louisiana. that's eight electoral votes, and will bring his total to 168. scott. >> carl, thank you. richard, the idea of tariffs, obviously former president trump is talking about re-upping those, if not increasing them across the board.

how do you feel about that issue? are you supportive of that or not? >> well, you know, my thought about president trump and some of the things that he says is that president trump is very transactional. and sometimes he says things for purposes of negotiation. i think he has a point that we have some unfair trade balances with many countries, including europe, where we have negative balances of trade. he's trying to bring some jobs home. but, you know, the fact that he threw out a number, i'm not sure that that's actually where it would end up. >> i should also note that as we watch the futures and certainly they're thinly traded, things could obviously change as we open the markets many hours from now, they are at the highs of the session. we'll show them to you here. dow jones futures up by better than 400 points, nasdaq by 100

points. we come into tonight, 1 1/2% away from the record highs on the s&p 500. marc, how do you view the issue of tariffs? >> look, i think if you want to lower taxes to zero, and you want to have tariffs, i don't think you can make up the difference. it's almost impossible. i think richard is right, it may be a point of negotiation. there's no way that you can end up running this country. i think you have -- the amount of money you're collecting on sort of taxes, about three times what you could absolutely collect on tariffs. i don't think it's real, but, you know, richard has a really good point, and maybe a negotiation to try to bring some jobs home. but ultimately at the end of the day, this country, you've got to pay your taxes and you've got to pay your fair share. >> richard, lastly to you on the same issue of tariffs, i'm just curious how we've gotten to the

point where many within the republican party, certainly at the senior most levels, president trump obviously, and then some of his supporters have gone from the third rail, really, of tariffs being a tax on the american people, the national retail federation was on our network today suggesting that it would be a substantial hit to the spending power of the american consumer, but yet somehow we've moved to almost embrace the issue as the only way of better bargaining with countries like china. >> well, i mean, i think, you know, we believe in fair play, and they don't believe in fair play. so i think, you know, trump always likes to shake things up, and i think that's kind of what this is all about, the tariffs, is just, you know, for him to kind of shake things up, throw a hand grenade in the room and see what happens, but really, i think, in the end it's a negotiating tactic, and he's going to use it to try to, you know, bully their own unfair

trade practices to bring them a little more equitable. >> see how it all unfolds, marc lasry, great to see you as well. appreciate you being with us. enjoy the rest of the evening. both of you. >> we'll see you in a bit with the investment committee. breaking news, nbc news projecting kamala harris has won the state of rhode island. that's four electoral votes, as we continue to watch some of these east coast returns. >> no surprises, still, we're waiting for the big kahunas in terms of the battleground states as we go through the evening. we don't have any indication of where that is. one of the things that's fascinating to watch looking at exit polls as we're starting to see that data trickle out, we're preparing some information here that we're going to have in a couple of minutes, exactly where donald trump is with white women, suburban women, black voters in the state of wisconsin, and start to tease out the numbers, maybe there's some indicators of the way the

evening is going to go. we'll have that data shortly. but as of right now, not enough information to begin to get a sense of whether they're going to be happier in washington, d.c. or in mar-a-lago, florida. >> any thematics, patrick? >> i think that right now things are leaning towards donald trump in georgia, north carolina, but he has to get through those states before he can get to pennsylvania. so he definitively has to clear, you know, win both of those states, if he is on track to be the president. pennsylvania is going to be, i think, very frustrating, for people who want a quick result because they're pretty slow to count their votes. the votes that are being counted right now are under representative. what i'm looking for in pennsylvania, in the philly suburbs is whether or not, you know, kamala harris has succeeded in bringing over republicans, you know, particularly with this male vote. i'm seeing indications in the

data that she has not maybe done that yet. but it's still very early. >> the thinking for a long time, at least the mission would be to capture some of what eventually got called the haley vote, where people were voting for haley, even after she had suspended her campaign. >> let's remember, that's a small slice of the electorate but, you know, in a tight race, very small slices of the electorate matter. it looks like donald trump has done better, especially in florida with his panic voters, that is a place trump is looking to make gains to offset maybe the appeal that trump has or sorry, haley has tried to make with these republicans. the question is how many new people is harris getting out of that? or is it just simply a matter of trying to keep as much of the biden 2020 coalition together. >> right. so much emphasis from barack obama in the final stages of this campaign, out there

speaking directly to african-american young men. you have to be with harris, that's an indication that the harris camp thought they might have a problem with young african-american men. i wonder what we're seeing in the data, whether that problem was solved by those appeals or continued to worsen for them? >> i think it may have been solved in terms of the vote share that kamala harris is getting particularly out of some of these georgia counties. it's too soon to tell. the big question is turnout. you have seen throughout the early voting period, a reduction in the share of the african-american vote in georgia and north carolina, and to the extent that, like, oh, harris might be fine on the vote shares she's getting. if she's not driving again, those raw numbers to overcome the rural advantage that trump has, that's a problem. >> patrick, appreciate the insights, stay with us this hour. when we come back, the state of manufacturing in america, can trump or harris truly revive jobs in america's heartland.

jim cramer and former bridge water chief investment strategist, rebecca patterson and how the next economy could impact the new year. as we go to break, a look at where we stand in the race if the white house. we'll be right back. alright, we got your home and auto bundled and you saved hundreds. oh, that's nice, with the economy and all. what's the economy? [chuckling] where do we start? what isn't the economy? yes. [ laughter ] uh, it's -- it's so many thing. right. look, all you really need to know is that progressive can save you money without sacrificing quality coverage. you follow? i'll just look it up. hmm. that went well.

welcome back to cnbc's election coverage. we're going to start with eamon

javers on post 9. >> we're watching exit polling and getting a sense of where the different demographic groups are going. take a look at pennsylvania. this is fascinating. there has been so much focus on latino voters and where they're trending right now with donald trump. the nbc news exit polling out of pennsylvania suggests that trump is improving his performance among latino voters compared with four years ago. according to the results about four in ten now are supporting trump. that's up from three in ten back in 2020. that's not a number that you would want to see if you're the harris campaign tonight, particularly in that all important battleground state of pennsylvania. and i know megan and emily wilkins are down in washington. megan, you've got more information on wisconsin, right? >> absolutely. as we're talking about demographics, specifically in the battleground states, the exit polling on wisconsin has good news for the trump campaign. trump roughly doubled or actually more than doubled his black support in wisconsin. he had taken about 8% in 2020. and now about 20%. so a 12 percentage point

increase in the all important demographic of black voters in wisconsin specifically. this has been playing out nationwide. we were reporting in georgia last week. huge swing voters that have been shifting more towards donald trump. the harris campaign thought they had quieted some of that. at least in wisconsin, we're seeing that the shift really was real. >> and, emily, more in pennsylvania? >> yes, it's a very interesting to see. we had heard so much reporting about the latino vote shifting more toward donald trump. and now we're seeing some of that result from an exit poll in pennsylvania, showing that about 42% of the latino vote is currently backing donald trump. that is very much up for 27%, which we were looking at the last time that trump ran. and this of course could have giant implications down ballot as well. there's a very key senate race there as well as a number of really key house races in that state of pennsylvania, and some of them have latino heavy

districts, and so this could really have a bigger impact instead of just the presidential, and of course it will be interesting to see how this plays out when you get to states like nevada that have an incredibly high latino population. >> certainly given the attention paid to late deciding latino votes, emily. down in d.c. meantime, some breaking news, nbc news now projects that kamala harris has won the state of new york. that's 28 electoral votes. 62 versus former president trump at 168. so we'll keep our eye on that. one of the major pillars of the economic plans for both vice president harris and former president trump involve reviving manufacturing in america. former president trump has talked extensively about imposing tariffs on companies to get them to move jobs back to america, the vice president has proposed subsidies from the government to get new factories built here. to talk more broadly about the state of the economy, jim cramer

and bridgewater cio, rebecca patterson. what are you thinking? >> those jobs are not coming back. it was a tough piece. because what it basically said is what a lot of people don't want to talk about which is that we keep thinking that we just put tariffs, they'll come back here. incentives come back here. it's not happening. i think we have to move on. i have a place near quaker town, pennsylvania. a new factory job there in 50 years. what are we pining over. it's a very unfortunate thing. you have said point-blank, it's not going to change. >> well, i think we will get some jobs back. the national association of manufacturing says in the next decade, there will be 3.8 million manufacturing jobs available. we don't have enough workers in america to fill all of those seats, seats partly because of demographics. whoever comes in, has to have an

immigration policy to fill seats. the second is education. 8% of manufacturing need a college degree, today that's close to 30, 40, 50%. we have to have a different education approach. lastly and importantly, we need allies. last year was a record year for foreign investment in the u.s. a lot of that went to manufacturing. almost a quarter of manufacturing jobs last year were by u.s. affiliates of foreign companies, so if we alienate our ally, if tsmc isn't coming here, we're going to have an issue. we need partnerships with companies like tsmc and asml, we're not going to have the resilience that's the goal for both parties. >> and carl sits next to me, you hear him say it all the time. the robots are coming, and we don't have the birthrate. we have the genius. we don't have the work force that we need. we have some of the smartest people in the world. there has to be pure optimism. pure optimism is the world i

find myself in when i talk to the amazon people and apple people. these are nation states, first of all. these are not -- we see states, rhode island gets it. oklahoma, those are all important. but then there's amazon, and there's apple, and there's microsoft, and there's nvidia, and there's meta, and these are big institutions that want to do what's right and are really helping our country. jonathan cantor from the antitrust justice department, his law firm was my law firm. i would tell you they may be our aces in the hole. everything i have heard tonight, they may be trump. bridge trump, doesn't get talked about. i don't know. but it makes me optimistic. because the companies themselves are thinking about these issues that you just mentioned. they're listening, and they're trying to figure out how to make our country better. i know that the percentage of people who believe that in our country who are so cynical,

people believe they're probably this big. jensen huang, the ceo of nvidia, they want to change things. it's not just because they want to line their pockets, i tried to get tim cook to charge money for a health app because one that will help your hearing. he said, jim that's not what we do. we democratize. and i said i guess i'm a dollar sign represented by a man. >> the one thing that gives me hope, the commerce department this year partnered with high schools near micron, with a new plant, and they're teaching manufacturing, but they're tech manufacturing. i think there is a venn diagram intersection there. >> these guys have hearts. look, it's not about friends, it's about money. when i talk with the people who are the business people in the world who are running these big

companies, when you speak to a tim cook, you're kind of blown away that they have really thought about this, and trying to figure out -- i mentioned the other day, we don't have the birthrate we used to. they all tried to figure out how we can make our population more useful, and not everybody wants -- i have no problem with i flip burgers, waited tables, i'm not denigrating those jobs. in the end, we have to have a more educated work force. >> how do you grade the biden administration's performance on this issue, right? the emphasis has been on steering federal spending toward these cutting edge future jobs in manufacturing, like in the chips act, like in the infrastructure bill, bringing semiconductor manufacturing back. didn't work. >> manufacturing jobs, absolute number bottomed out in 2019. it has been rising since.

the initiatives the ira, the infrastructure chips, that's starting to create jobs. the chajllenges that like chips act, you get a pass, and set up the infrastructure and hire the people in d.c. then you have to get requests for proposals out. the process takes time, as you know better than all of us. the money going out, creating the jobs, it takes a year, two years before you really see the bills passing having an effect. you are starting to see an effect. jobs are getting created. foreign direct investment, and manufacturing in the u.s., record high. so i think there is a positive impact. the hard part in politics is these things need time, and in politics, you don't have time. right? >> and you wonder if it's too late for harris. >> whoever wins this race will benefit from policies and manufacturing. >> they'll take credit. >> one of the calling cards of the biden white house has been manufacturing factory construction is at a level we haven't seen since the space race. >> right. >> there is not a lot of impact.

it's interesting you mentioned that. when i see the cranes, and i know how much is infrastructure, the prinfrastructure money is huge. when you look at eden, amazing numbers, dover, parker, these are companies everyone thought would have been out of business and they completely reinvented themselves, and now they're the greatest manufacturers on earth. that said, when you go to the plants, not a lot of people. >> tech is going to be part of that. >> too expensive. >> to your point earlier, tech is, if we want to say it, the trump card. and you guys talk about this every day, the mag 7, the amount of money they're going invest in r and d and capx. >> $300 billion in data centers just to keep up with the data and be able to bring out things that we are only just beginning and all that work, and i know i

sound like a ridiculous optimist, when i went out to nvidia, i saw dogs talking to each other, there's something going on here, and cars we're seeing. they knew there was black ice, and people who were -- robots bringing coffee, maybe it's going to happen, and then it happened in four years. >> and it's stimulus, right? if you're seeing half a trillion dollars going into the economy in one year from these companies, that supports growth. it does create lots of jobs, including manufacturing jobs. >> what do you think about larry fink's argument of hope? we can kind of grow our way out of the deficit, where are you in that? >> i don't think we should be complacent. at 100% of gdp right now, we need to be thinking about how to we get this more fair, taking the corporate tax rate from 21 to 25, the oecd average is 25, 26. we wouldn't be hurting u.s. companies raising it a little bit. now, of course it's not good for

the equity market. we know that. >> we can handle it. >> we can handle it. >> jim, you got a quick thought on future session highs? >> i don't trust the futures at all. they don't know anything. >> you sure you don't want to think about it. >> they're as stupid as they are at 3:15. what are you idiots selling the futures. going to be a great day. >> pajama traders work in the morning and night. >> they're as foolish as they have been. >> are people buying futures tonight as we look here sitting at the same exit polls, trying to tease it out. is that what's going on? >> that's incredible. we don't know anything. >> you see, that's kind of why they're not making big money, never heard of them. by the way, you never will. >> don't you think there's a lot of algo going on, exit polls. >> going into the black boxes. >> i often think they had their

spies, they had to know. i know there are institutions that did, and i know there's hedge funds that got the information, and short the market when trump won and turned out to be faded in 2016. >> a good cautionary tale for all of us this time. >> you don't know how the market is going to react to that. >> these people trading, more stupid at 12:00. >> markets tend not to do politics well. >> no, they don't. >> you should have a beer or whatever. >> rebecca. >> great to see you. >> we'll see you in a bit. we have breaking news, nbc news projecting that kamala harris has won the state of illinois, 19, electoral votes and will bring her total, i think i saw something with an 8 handle, 81. we continue to watch the spread narrow a bit. >> that's a big one, illinois, and we saw new york, also big numbers tipping on to the kamala harris side of the ledger, again, none of the big battleground states yet. we have to wait for those as the

night goes on, and watch, look at pennsylvania. look at wisconsin. look at michigan. that's where kamala harris needs to put up some numbers tonight if she's going to start to really turn this thing around, and you look at those exit poles we just gave you, and you get tea leaves feeling like a good night for trump. >> still so early, though. >> there's the blue calwall consensus. she has multiple paths involving some states out west. >> still too early to call that out. >> arizona, nevada, those are definitely in play as battleground states, those don't play until later in the east coast time. we are a long way away from knowing the answer to what's going to happen tonight, and maybe not until tomorrow morning. maybe a couple of days, and people need to be prepared and be patient, and understand that that is part of the process. >> still ahead tonight on cnbc's election night coverage. we'll look at where the balance of power in the senate and house

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welcome back to cnbc's election night coverage. you'll see on the left side of the screen, we expect to see the vice president at howard university in d.c., on the right, we expect to see former president trump in west palm beach, florida. in the meantime, cnbc's emily wilkins, live from d.c., talking about races we're getting tonight. >> hey, carl, at this point, we knew it was going to be close, and close it remains. we're looking at a number of battleground states, both in the house and in the senate, and at this point, everything is just too soon to call. we just don't have enough vote totals in yet. what we can take a look at is exit poll data we have gotten around the economy in some of these key states. start here with michigan. obviously that is a very close battleground state. it is one that you have seen harris do a little bit better in the polls, and when you look at a break down of how people in michigan, how they're voting, how they're feeling you're

seeing 7% say excellent, 31 say good, 32% say not so good, and 30 say poor. a bulk of respondents there saying poor, and not so good. and we are seeing some similar trends, if you go to pennsylvania, which has really been pegged as a key must win state for harris and trump for the senate and house, you're seeing things get worse, really, the poor and not so good, taking up an even wider portion of that total electorate. 4% saying the economy has gone well. you look at polling you have seen harris make some end roads at getting individuals to say she could be good for the economy. democrats up and down the ballot have been trying to tout the strong numbers you have seen come out of the last four years in the biden administration. that low unemployment, that falling inflation. but at this point, most polls are showing, and this bears out if you look at the data, most voters feel like republicans are going to be better for the

economy, and of course that's an absolutely huge issue that's been on voters' minds, carl. >> appreciate that. watching as some of the other races we got. breaking news as well tonight, nbc news that donald trump has won the state of ohio which has 17 electoral votes. some of the midwest fills in here. >> fascinating to watch this. i'm old enough to remember it was ohio and florida we watched on election nights and remember, tim rus ert back in the day. we're not talking about ohio or florida. those were in essence, fore gone conclusions for donald trump. those have become red states in this era. we put them in the tally as we expected, and we're waiting for the blue wall states to make the difference tonight. >> meantime, patrick, i wonder if you can give us granularity on north carolina, virginia, what we know? >> in north carolina, it is the case that wake county, right,

raleigh, durham, area, that is -- harris has gotten a two point swing and trump continues to gain. all the fully counted, you know, rural counties, you know, he's running across the table. i don't think that 2 point swing that she's getting right now in wake county is going to be enough. >> in the more urban areas. >> in the more urban areas. charlotte, mecklenburg county is going to be a big test for her. that's been a place like the atlanta suburbs that has seen a huge influx in population, and has been shifting in the suburbs, to the left, so if she can push that further, but so far it's advantaged trump in north carolina. >> is georgia instructive? >> i think georgia is tighter because of the atlanta suburbs being a little bit more just it's a more urban state than north carolina. >> you're talking about raleigh and north carolina, and donald trump was there yesterday. that campaign must have seen

something in raleigh that they wanted to move the needle on. do you think it was smart to put that last minute stop there? >> it could have been decisive. >> that's amazing, coming down to the last day, the last campaign stop, and you're changing the schedule within 24 hours to go before election day because you're seeing these pockets of vote, and we need to do a little bit more there. >> how about virginia? >> so virginia has been a surprise. i don't believe it's been called yet: but in loudoun county, washington d.c. suburbs it's gone from republican stronghold back in the george w. bush era, to joe biden winning that county by 25 point, now it looks like kamala harris has won it by 16 points for a nine point shift to the right. loudoun county was the epicenter of the culture war around education and the pandemic, and glenn young kin making a huge issue, particularly with some problems that were going on specifically in loudoun county. you know, with parental control of education, really being his

calling card. that has shifted nine points. fairfax county suburbs have shifted a little bit back to donald trump as well. and he's doing well in the rest of the state. i don't think that's maybe going to be enough. for him to actually win it. but it's probably going to be within five. >> loudoun county, also a lot of government contractors government employees out there, a lot of military contractors and defense in that ex-urban area sort of farther out into the suburbs where it ticks over into the rural county. you think maybe the defense vote might make a difference in loudoun county as well. >> you're seeing in some places, harris is making gains in suburbans. trump is actually staging a comeback in the suburbs, particularly in the suburbs that maybe the growth has slowed down a bit. we are talking more of an apples to apples comparison to four years ago. so i do think that's one of the -- if that holds, that's going to be one of the surprises of the night. >> patrick stay close. let's send it over to scott wapner, a panel of all star investors, help us navigate what

might be next. back with josh and adam and courtney, we kept it broad, we looked at the backdrop for this record setting rally. let's talk about positioning. where our viewers want to think about investing, no matter who wins, tech, the trade of the year, a big proponent of the mag 7, obviously. what's your view now? >> i think tech still works into your end, but with the election behind us, i do think investors are going to be looking for other areas on a bet that market breadth is expanding. i think one place they'll turn to is, oh, where would animal spirits come back. things that could benefit from mergers, or where are multiples low so i can see pe expansion, and that would take people to small caps, financials, basically the rest of the market, actually? >> that is courtney, where you do have wolf research talking

about tonight, financials being a big election winner, talking about the regional banks as well, do you see that as a space, if former president trump is reelected tonight as president once again, that that is a space to keep your eye on? >> yeah, regional banks specifically are one that are talked about often right now. what you're seeing is in this administration, they really haven't turned down a lot of m and a, it's so hard to get this through, there's pretty much no m and a ctivity. that is expected to pick up in a trump administration. absolutely that's something that you want to look at if trump were to be in office. that's probably going to take off here. >> on the idea of tech, i want to read something that the wed bush analyst, on the possibility of a trump win and what that would mean for that space, a major change in tariffs, he says, and a harsher stance on china, we believe, would significantly impact the supply chain, nvidia, beijing, r retaliatory impacts on apple and tesla and slow the pace of the ai revolution. is he on to something or not?

>> i think investors are positioned in five or six growth themes independent of the election. if he's talking about a short-term supply disruption, he could be right. if you're investing money, you want to compute anything associated with it, software around that, there's electrification of industrials, housing and building materials, power, so many themes in place, and i think people were positioned to own the themes. i would say within tech, there's a little bit of this misnomer, because the market cap of big tech, you have to own it to keep up with the s&p. there are tons of stocks up and down a lot. dell is up 75. fico is up 73. there's a tons of dispersion. intel is down 55. you could have picked stock this year pretty well. it wasn't just the mag 7 that worked. it's a little bit of an excuse. hard to beat the s&p when it's big. >> you have regulatory issues to think about, do you not, josh,

under a potential harris administration, the biden administration hasn't exactly been friendly and embracing of big tech, google, apple, amazon, meta, all facing actions or threats? >> and they're facing threats not just in the united states but all over the world, and i think that overhang remains regardless. in a typical election, you would guess that big business would be aided by the republican candidate, and certainly if donald trump comes in, we're probably saying good-bye to the head of the s.e.c., the head of the ftc, that seems likely, but donald trump's not a big fan of google. there's complaints tonight, all over social media, about the way search seems to be favoring the harris side, you're going to hear so much rhetoric about these platforms and whether or not they're against trump. we've seen that in the past with facebook, back when was it called facebook. my take is, don't overthink it. look at what's rallying as the

needle leans toward trump. you've got bitcoin up 5%. hod, actually, a november high. you've got the ru2,000 futures. it's a notable move given there's not much volume there. i agree, you can't say regional banks are going to rally and not think the russell is going to work. that's a synonymous trade. and tesla up 7% after hours. those are probably the things that would have longevity, if the result goes toward trump. if goes toward tariffs, we have to talk about antitrust, breaking up platforms. >> it's just, look, i'm just looking at the four-year returns under biden. you can't argue that microsoft, nvidia, weren't also under biden. it's always like, you know, a timing issue. >> i think that's why we had the conversation we did at the outset this evening. why people are positive on the

markets no matter the outcome. there's just enough going on, tom. >> if the government wants a massive deficit, you think amazon is not going to benefit? of course they are. >> if i told you that the best sector under president biden, tom, was energy, up 110%, and the worst sector under president trump was energy, down 40%, would you have believed me? that sound so counter intuitive to the way we have been thinking about different administrations and the kinds of sectors you would want to be in? >> it makes sense because it's a commodity sector. under biden, drilling was constrained and expansion of supply, so prices of oil outperformed expectations, and if we have a republican president and we expand drilling it's going to be downside pressure to oil prices so i think it actually, that sort of flip-flop would couldn't. >> it's less ironic than it

sounds on the surface. drill baby drill means a range of 60 to r70. >> it's like .85. no question, if oil prices come down, energy is going to under perform. >> that's our number one exporter at this point in time. that's something where people associate trump with oil, but also if you see retaliatory tariffs coming from china, that affects our exports of oil. >> you have been looking at stocks related to china, if we're in a position where we're talking about tariffs once again, and perhaps even steeper than the ones that remain in place today, names that are very familiar to portfolios, whether portfolio managers or viewers who are investing in stocks. free port, estee lauder, z scaler, wynn resorts, names that are particular to people that could be impacted. >> we had a couple of ceos text us, look, i think they're

worried if they have, you know, a lot of employees or a lot of revenue in mexico or china, they're worried what maybe a more volatile relationship could mean for their relationships there and their profits and costs. i think it's considered a risk on trade when, you know, trump wins just because of regulation, and maybe taxes. there are some puts and takes when it comes to relationships with china and mexico. you're seeing the mexico currency move. >> back a little later on. carl, sending to you. >> we're coming to the top of the 10:00 p.m. hour. our continuing coverage of election night across america, it's your money, your vote, live from the new york stock exchange, the financial capital of the year. in just the last hour, decisions in a number of states, so far, not too many surprises. many of the key battleground states remain uncalled. that includes too early to call out west in arizona. in addition, nbc has changed its characterization in three key states too close to call in

pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, in wisconsin, it is now too close to call. nbc also shifting its characterization in minnesota from too early to call to too close to call, and just a short time ago, nbc projected that former president trump will win ohio. harris with 81. three states get set to close a few moments from now. montana, utah and the critical swing state of nevada. i'm carl quintanilla. another big hour ahead. steve liesman will be ahead. we'll talk energy and geopolitics with rbc halyna kroft and sit with former clinton white house adviser, current executive at open ai, author of political damage control, must read, masters of disaster. that is all coming up. first, some fresh calls coming in from the decision desk at nbc. designatingformer president trump has won montana. that is four electoral votes. nbc projecting that former president trump will win utah.

that is six electoral votes. and nbc news says that nevada is still too early to call. let's bring in our team to discuss some of the results we have seen so far. megan cassella in washington, eamon javers at post nine. menge, you have new reporting on the harris camp? >> that's right. there have been a few early negative signs for the democrats. hearing and feeling a little vibe shift among the democrats. but the harris campaign is trying to project some confidence. so, they say now that they are seeing some continuing enthusiasm at college precincts that they think looks good for them. two college campuses in north carolina and the university of michigan as well. they're also tracking the suburban support which was also expected to be all important for kamala harris. they say they're slightly above expected support levels among the suburban early votes in georgia. some of the largely counties she's running ahead of where

president biden was. their not seeing a big rural surge for trump. trying to project that confidence even seeing that overperformance by president trump in the d.c. suburbs of virginia, likely not going to be any help at this point. it's looking more likely from the sun belt the north carolina and georgia states. i've also checked in the democratic donors and getting a mixed picture. these are all folks who were feeling bullish before we were getting any results. now i had a couple sites still early, it is. one person said it's feeling too close that they have no idea but they're growing concerned. a third person said that trump definitely doing expected in some states like virginia, but still too early. feels a lot like 2020 when biden came in from behind. they said it all comes down to the blue wall. so speaking of the blue wall, i also just want to make one final point about those states that we're still waiting for. this was always going to be harris' most likely path to the presidency. we're not seeing many results so far yet. but one of the biggest

demographics to watch are these union householding. these are all going to be huge in the blue wall states more than anything, places like pennsylvania and michigan, about 13% of households are union members. i think we have that graphic somewhere if we can pull it up. looking at the exit polls for these households, harris took these households by about 10 percentage points in this year's poll. last year or four years ago i should say biden took the same household by 16 points. six percentage drop by harris. take a look. pennsylvania, michigan, nevada and wisconsin all huge state where the union memberships will count. >> that's right. you talk about the mood in the harris camp and you wonder what the mood is at mar-a-lago. you have former president donald trump holed up in mar-a-lago with elon musk of all people. we have not talked about the impact of elon musk on this election. and this is something that's sort of unprecedented in

american history and industrialist of this scale and control of this many industries, playing this much of a role in american politics. going all out campaigning in pennsylvania, pouring millions of dollars into this race. elon musk has said that he is going to be a continuing factor now in american politics. the one thing we already learned, i think, is the elon factor in american politics and american business is certainly not going away. and i wonder if you have any sort of historical parallel we have somebody at that level as an american industrialist playing in american politics to this degree even at time when he is a huge government contractor himself, right? this is a fascinating moment. and to be a fly on the wall in mar-a-lago as elon musk hanging out with former president donald trump. >> nation state as cramer likes to say. meantime, we continue to keep our eye on futures tonight. pretty close to session highs here with dow futures closing in on some 600 points. you can see that's better -- that would be better than 1.5%

gain on the dow. bitcoin, of course, long seen as a trump positive trade. crossing almost to 74k, which has been setting higher and higher levels as we worked our way throughout the summer. also i mentioned -- i would mention dollar index is going to be approaching 105. that would be the highest since the july or june, middle of the summer. >> and donald trump flipping his view entirely on crypto currency, initially a skeptic, now a proponent of crypto currency and proponent of bitcoin to the point that we think bitcoin is trading following likelihood of trump in the election. trump during the midst of a campaign, launching his own crypto currency, is something we have never seen again in american politics. talk about all the things unprecedented here. the idea of a candidate the middle of a campaign, launching his own new business that benefits from voters but also from people around the world who could potentially buy into that business. that's something that is entirely new as well.

>> yeah. one last thing, 10-year, leesman points out, closing in on 4.5 as we have seen that yield rise in recent days. certainly since the fed cut for the first time. >> megan, thank you. let's add cornell bell sher to the line and brian gardener. guys, great to see you both. cornell, are you seeing some underperformance among say african-american men? >> no. look, you have to be careful with the early exit polling. the exit polling will probably be re-weighted several times. i wouldn't lean too much into the exit polling. i'm actually more focussed on what i'm seeing on the ground and not surprisingly it's coming down to the battleground states and not surprisingly all the battleground states are too close to call. you see in some areas where he's overperforming from his last -- from 2020. but you also see some areas like

counties where she'sover performing from biden's 2020 performance. so it's still a race where it counts. it's too close to call. >> brian, i can't imagine you're making adjustments to your policy stance given these early returns yet? >> flo. i think for the most part the night is going pretty much as expected. which is very close. the senate is leaning republican. the house is too close to call. we won't know that for a couple hours. so we're leaning towards, if not an official divide of government, a closely split government. so, given what we're seeing right now, i wouldn't. and i'm kind of leaning into little bit on the trump trade side. you see those stocks and those sectors performing, as the market is picking up on some trends here, which are kind of on net cornell is right, net it's leaning in trump's direction. >> cornell, what do you think you need to see overnight from

wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan? what specific would say stability for the harris campaign? >> all the votes counted, right? and not too long ago you still had two hours long lines in philadelphia and in milwaukee. soar to part about that is quite frankly, guys, we have to do a better job of doing elections in this country. there's no reason why people should still be standing in line for two hours. but that note aside, look, i think it's what we saw the last time in 2020 as well. in the big urban areas the big suburban counties where democrats have been doing better and better. take a look at georgia. again, you see trump's run up a lead look at the rural. argue he has not run up enough when you look at the atlanta metro coming in. i think things will begin to change overnight as you see more

and more of that vote coming in. i don't actually think we'll see a lot of surprises. and i think we're going to see a map that looks awful a lot like the 2020 map. >> brian, we were talking about this in an earlier segment, the idea even if you knew tomorrow's news tonight f you could tell right now that donald trump was going to win this election, what would you say the stock market is going to do tomorrow? i think it's hard to predict and history said the stock market doesn't always get that initial reaction right. what would you say right now? if we could say for sure donald trump was going to win tonight, where does the market go tomorrow? >> i think it goes up. first of all, i think it goes up if either one of them wins. i think it goes up -- >> just a relief rally. >> i think a relief rally, exactly. so a relief rally would be real if there's a clear and convincing win and we're not going on for three, four days much less a couple weeks. so i do think a relief rally is possible tomorrow. then a couple of your panelists mentioned this, bank stocks, crypto, energy, even though

ironically the last panel talked about energy underperformed, oil and gas underperformed with trump, outperformed with biden. i think there's still going to be some room to run for those stocks just because the perception is that the operating environment is going to be more benign with trump than it would with harris. >> brian, i want to add to the conversation, colorado, nbc news projecting that for the vice president. it will be 10 evs and take her to 91. you mentioned bitcoin, we just got a record high and we had a long discussion tonight about what was embedded in that price. was it is a trump regulatory touch, was there a would be crisis instability bid in there? seems to be more of the former? >> i think it's the regulatory bid. i think it's trump comes in, changes leadership at the ftc and cft contraction. that's the reaction i have gotting from most the clients i talked to. that's what they're telling me

is they're interested in crypto and bitcoin becaused on regulatory change with the trump administration. >> brian, the other question is if kamala harris were to win, let me flip the question for you, i asked you about donald trump. kamala harris you're saying maybe relief rally either way tomorrow. so maybe people can place their bets right now. but if harris wins, you know, what are the sectors you would look to given that we have seen this weird issue with energy where it's outperformed under biden but you know you think energy might rally under trump. >> yeah. it's definitely clean energy. with either harris or the democrats controlling either part of congress, you're going to get some level of protection for the ira tax credits and i think the market just reacts positively to that. healthcare, i don't think there will be any big healthcare legislation going through congress, but aca remains protected. harris won't change the aca like

trump claims he would. and there are ways that she can use the administrative state to try to expand or make aca more appealable to some folks and get them into the various programs. so i think healthcare does pretty well. then we head into a couple of sectors that are kind of no man's land. it's not that they're going to go up or down. they just -- tech was one of them. a previous panel talking about that. they don't have a lot of friends on either side of the aisle. defense is another sector i point out. people think that defense will do really well with trump on the theory we're going to have more defense spending. there will be more defense spending with either candidate. the budget is going to restrain what it is and it's going to be probably the rate of inflation whether it's harris or trump. so, you know, it may be odd for some people to say that i don't think trump is great for defense. i don't think either one of them changes the dynamic for defense budgets. >> yeah. i think you're right when you talk about tech in particular. i don't think just knowing what i know about the trump campaign

that donald trump would come in and back off, say, the doj's effort to back google. but as long as we're putting you on the spot, last question for you then is what about the uncertainty factor? you talk about the relief factor. what about the opposite of a relief rally where you get in a situation where, you know, we don't know for one day, two days, three days, brian for you and also for cornell, how long do you think the market is going to be comfortable with that uncertainty and how long before they start to have a negative reaction? >> i think in order for the market to have a negative reaction uncertainty it has to be at levels we have not seen in decades. and i'm talking about early 1800s types of the house resolving the presidency. because if you look at 2000, bush v gore, markets sold off but it sold off because of the bursting of the tech bubble. you look at 2020, market actually went up despite

everything that was going on because we're in a covid environment and the roll out of the vaccine. very positive headlines coming out that the economy is going to normalize. i think the market will do what it does based on fundamentals, based on earnings, based on the fed this week, but it's not going to move on political uncertainty unless we get to that critical mass which is it gets punted to the house of representatives on a 269 tie. >> speaking of congress, breaking news, nbc news projecting that senate ted cruz has been re-elected in the state of texas. this was seen as a hope for some democrats, of course, the vice president did make a late visit to houston. on that, let's get to emily wilkins. >> hey, carl. democrats were really crossing their fingers on texas at the end of this race, they actually poured a couple million dollars into that because democrat colin allred seemed to be doing really well in the polling. he was closing that gap. but i don't think it's a huge surprise for anyone that senator ted cruz did win this one.

especially given how well trump performed in the state. and what this really means for senate democrats is that any opportunity for them to pick up a seat, that door just firmly shut. what they're going to have to do now if they have any hope of controlling the senate at this point is to hold on to the seats that they currently have. and if you look at polling right now in ohio, sherrod brown and republican bernie merano are neck in neck. you're really seeing these very tight, very close races for the senate. and at this point, you know a lot of folks kind of assumed i think that republicans would eventually control that chamber. of course, nothing is over until it's over. but at this point, especially with cruz's win this early in the night and this definitive, kind of tells you a bit of the narrative that things are not looking as good a democrats hoped would be. >> live picture of ted cruz.

the gop senate control has been one of the consensus trades as emily points out the watch the remaining races in montana will be key. cornell, i don't know if you can speak specifically to texas senate, but does that do anything to hopes -- we all remember beto o'rourke in the last cycle. >> no. i mean, texas has been sort of fool's gold. quite frankly, it's a tough state for democrats. it's been a tough state for democrats for a long time. and if you look at the spending in texas, it wasn't near the spending the $500 million spending that we did jointly in ohio. i think texas was a reap. but again, i don't see a lot of surprises right now. but i will say this, look, i don't think we will know tomorrow whether or not -- which way pennsylvania goes. i don't think we'll be done with all the counting tomorrow in pennsylvania. team, it will all come down to what happens in pennsylvania. >> along with michigan and

wisconsin. i'm wondering if you're seeing anything, cornell, at a granular level in the latter two states, michigan or wisconsin that you find hope nfl. >> no. i think this will go to form. i really do think when you look at michigan, look, the secretary of state talked about that she has the turn out this year i think she needs in michigan. i think wisconsin again will be close. but i think they feel comfortable about wisconsin. but again, it's all about sort of what happens and those counties around philadelphia and pittsburgh is not only he will run up the score and those more rural areas. but what we have seen is democrats make in roads in the suburbs and particularly with upscale white voters and upscale college educated white women. tell me how they turn out. tell me how the turnout in flel looks and i'll tell you whether or not pennsylvania will lean one way or the other. but again, i think they'll be counting those votes for the next day or so.

>> wow. that's where the ground game comes in. we have beentalking so much about it last 72 hours or so. brian and cornell, thanks to both of you guys. appreciate it very much. we turn now to fed impact. let's bring in our steve liesman who joined this evening by former fed there roger ferguson and richard fisher. >> i got to tell you, carl, if you're watching some of the other channels, you're missing half the drama. we have the election here but we also have the markets moving in a dramatic way. we have a fed meeting. and it's all coming together. before we start to bring in o esteemed guest, i want to bring in the 10 year yield. if they put up that chart, you'll see we moved 20 bases points seemed like during the evening it was a positive harris thought out there. now it's gone the other way up to 443. one of the highest levels we've seen in months. i could show you also a chart that shows -- this is from wells fargo, that as trump's chances to win in the betting markets

have increased, so has the 10-year yield. perhaps this is linked to expectations for higher deficit spending, maybe higher inflation, maybe also higher growth. maybe our esteemed guests have an answer to that question. let's bring in roger ferguson and richard fisher from the great state of texas and the great bank of the federal reserve bank of dallas. roger, i'm going to start with you. the fed is supposed to meet beginning tomorrow. give us an announcement on thursday. they're supposed to cut interest rates again. how does what's happening in bond markets right now -- indeed, other the course of the past several months, affect what the fed might do either this week or in months to come? >> yes. can you hear me? >> yeah, i got you. >> yes. can you hear me? so what i think they'll do this

week i think is baked in. i think it's 25 bases points. i think it would be a very surprising move and unnecessarily surprising to do anything other than that. going forward, we'll wait and see. i think there's still very much data dependent. the most recent labor market i wouldn't read into. i think this week is a done deal. i think they'll take a look -- life and active. probably another 25 bases points before the end of the year. then i think it's really a coin toss. >> richard, there are some people out there who say, hey, with the bond market going the way it's been going, interest rates rising. uncertainty on the horizon when it comes to fiscal policy. the fed makes a mistake cutting here. what's your take on that, richard? >> it was one of the great vice chairman, one of the great vice chairman of the federal reserve system was roger. so i agree with him here.

but here is the point, since the 50 bases point much celebrated cut took place, rates have risen from the one year all the way out on the yield curve. as you mentioned earlier, steve, the 10 year is at 440 plus right now. again, this goes back to what i was talking about earlier this evening. we have this fiscal run away train wreck that's taking place where we're spending more on interest than we are on defense and where we're spending almost 20% of revenues on interest costs as interest rates are rising as we refinance 2% plus debt into the 4% plus space. >> right. >> so i think that's what's being reflected here, steve. and i'm on roger's wave length as far as the next meeting. but the point is, as it affects businesses, rates are rising not declining. >> richard, we'll come back to

that. now projecting that donald trump has won the state of iowa. that will be six electoral votes. this one got a lot of attention in the last couple days because of that poll which showed harris up three. >> yep. and she's not. so we can get off the polar coaster and everybody focussing on that can go back to focussing on actual vote count. that was an outlying poll. there's a lot of respect for seltzer in the polling community. a lot of people took it very seriously. clearly there was some kind of glitch in the data there or something changed in the last 24 hours. iowa going for trump, as expected. no big upset for kamala harris there. >> steve? >> roger, you were vice chair of the federal reserve in the mid '80s which is practically like a sleeper era compared to what's going on now. give me a sense, roger. how you would handle the kind of

uncertainty that looks to be coming down the pike from the fiscal side, from washington, when it comes to the making of monetary policy. >> well, first, the fiscal picture changed quite dramatically from the possibility of surpluses to the possibility of deficits. so we have seen all of this. i think the answer is to move very slowly and methodically and be data driven as the fed has been. chair powell talked about how hard it is to lead fed policy based on these unknown, variables, so-called the neutral rate or the unemployment rate, that's supposed to be the natural rate. i think in a period of such uncertainty, the in coming data has got to give you the guidance. that's the risk that you might be late, as we've already seen. so i think it's going to be a little bit of a balancing act.

ill agree with richard that the fiscal picture does not look very promising, to indeed interest rates are likely to move higher based on what the market is seeing and the fed will have to take that into consideration. >> well, that's really my question. i want to stick with you one more time. do you find yourself -- could you find yourself in a position where you have to lean against with it higher rates if the borrowing numbers are so much higher and create the threat of inflation? >> look, i think that's always been the case. the fed always has to take fiscal policy into consideration in its modelling. and its job is to keep inflation under control. so the answer is, you know, fiscal deficits that continue to ratchet up, make the fed's job much more difficult in terms of keeping inflation under control. and hence, you know, the ability to reduce rates will be hampered. i don't think there's great news in that. i think that's the logic of any kind of market situation. >> all right. don't get too excited.

i'm now going to release new results but not any election results. i'll release results from our fed survey guys which is coming out thursday. i had this especially prepared for tonight. sneak peek. richard, we asked our panelists about respecting the fed's independence. 100% think harris will. now we're down to 30% who believe that trump will. down from 42%. how much concern do you have either way this goes when it comes to respect for the fed's independence. there's the charts. come on, what's better than this? >> good stuff. >> would you give me your thoughts on the concern that you may or may not have about the fed's independence. >> i'm not worried about the fed's independence. you would have to get the senate to line one the president. and i want to remind you that this has been attempted several

times. for example, people forget that ronald reagan tried to impeach paul volk-er. and he outmaneuvered him on the hill. biden did not want to reappoint jay powell. and jay powell outmaneuvered him on the hill. so, there's a lot of fluff in here, a lot of gorilla dust. but i'm not worried about the fed's independence. i actually had a conversation once, guys, with nancy pelosi about that. you know what she told me, she said we can't even tie our shoes on the budget. can't imagine if congress was in charge of monetary policy. or the executive was, we would have an inflationary disaster on our hand. so, i'm not worried about it. maybe ronneler has a different perspective. he is wiser than i am.

it's important we keep the central bank independent. ere country in the world in history who has allowed the executive or the ruler to overrule the independence central banking authority has unleashed hyperinflation and economic disaster. we don't want that in the united states. >> quick response from roger on that. i'll point out that the next president will not have another trump -- under the fed appointment until 2026, i believe. >> correct. >> right. so i agree with richard overall. i think the market will also have a strong reaction. so i think there will be talk, there will be bluster. remember, that richard nixon called in arthur burns and really pushed him hard and burns actually caved a little bit. i think richard is right overall, but don't think it will not be a pretty noisy ride as potentially president trump if he's elected has commentary i suspect vice president harris if she were elected would not have.

>> well, we expect to have both your voices on cnbc for the noisy ride, the calming voices of richard fisher and roger ferguson. identify known for just a couple decades now. >> one or two. >> thank you so much, guys. let's check some boards. you're going to want to keep your eye on russell futures. actually there's futures right there looking at a better than 1% ib crease for the dow. and you can see the nasdaq as well up 254 points. there's the russell, close to three-year high on the russell futures. bitcoin is a big story again as we approach 74k and steve pointed out the 10 year as well, getting close to 445, i think. maybe some resistance, some argue at 447. >> backed off a little bit. >> off just a touch. qs and spy is another one to watch. we have some markets working

overnight. when we come back, the election in big tech. what's at stake for silicon valley, seasoned political operative chris lehane will join us next to discuss the intersection between politics and messaging. your watching a cnbc special "your money/your vote." we're back after this quick break. want a next level clean? swish with the whoa of listerine. it kills 99.9% of bad breath germs for five times more cleaning power than brushing and flossing alone. get a next level clean... ahhhhh with listerine. feel the whoa! lowe's knows getting it done, is easier said than done. thanks. - happy to help. so if you... forgot the lights. we've got same day delivery

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♪ get you a live look at the two campaign headquarters. howard university is on the left. on the right, west palm beach convention center where supporters of former president trump are at this hour. we'll keep your eyes peeled for any signs of the candidates. meantime, questions swirling around what the next president might mean for the tech sector from ai to domestic chip production to anti-trust concerns. our own deirdre bosa is live in san francisco with a very special guest. evening, d. >> i'm delighted to be here with chris le-hane. few people understand the intersection of washington and technology like he does. after working as a political strategist in the clinton white house, chris came west first with airbnb and then in crypto and now at open ai at a time when the industry and government are trying to get their arms around ai policy, chris. it's really wonderful to have you. >> thank you for having me. really nice to be here. >> let's get to what's happening right now.

what do you make of the results so far? >> well, you know, look, i'm someone who goes way back to the 2000 campaign. i was al gore's press secretary. and those of you who may remember 2000, i was sitting next to the then sitting vice president when he was declared the winner. and then 30 minutes later, they changed it. so i think as we sit here now and see where the trends are and what we have seen from some of the numbers come in, i still think it's too early to make a prediction on this. i think what we are seeing thus far is a lot of the results are actually playing to what the polls had been showing us going in. and so i do think a lot of this is going to come down to the proverbial blue wall, what happens in pennsylvania and wisconsin and michigan. i'll be looking for specific data points from some of those states having been through elections before that i think will give us a little bit of a tell. i do think this will be a long, long night. >> iowa sticks out as something that may have shifted from what we saw in the polls. do you think that the harris campaign should be nervous right

now? >> i think that the harris campaign has known all along that this is going to be a long night. i do think it comes down to those three states. we just don't know enough right now. look, what i'm hearing on the ground in those states is that they feel like they have been a very competitive position but it will be very, very close. this is what i share with folks, what i'm looking for what do the numbers look like out of philadelphia. for a democrat to win pennsylvania, you have to basically have about 450,000 vote margin out of philly. keep an eye on that. for michigan, get over 50% -- more than 50% turnout in detroit. those are some of the data points you can look at pretty quickly. i think wisconsin will be a hard one to follow tonight because of the issue with the voting and tallying the votes. in milwaukee, that doesn't come in until very, very late. i think we're in for a long, long night. >> north carolina and georgia, do you give those to trump then? >> those seem to be trending in that direction. again, having been through this

before, i'm always very, very careful. i think what you're seeing heading into today, both the sun belt states had a slight -- if you looked at the polling they slightly favored trump. if you look at the blue wall, they slightly favor kamala. >> are you seeing anything that maters to cigsilicon valley wirs felt that the tech industry was going to be i think in a relatively positive place. the vice president is from california. has strong relationships with tech. you know, the former president has obviously been talking an awful lot about u.s. national economic competitiveness. and at the center of u.s. national economic competitiveness is the tech industry. >> right. so let's get to silicon valley's role in this election cycle as well. for many years the discussions seemed to happen largely behind closed doors. that's really burst out into the open. at least it felt like that here on the ground. what has changed this time around for vcs and founders.

why are they more vocal than we heard far long time? >> i think for a long time the tech sector was its own separate thing. now today tech is the economy. what company is not a tech company at some level. aztecs went from -- i've been there for web 1 late '90s, early 2000s. web 2 to this otera of tech. i think we're entering a new era and that put tech in a middle of a lot of these national conversations. >> right. >> look, i think the tech industry itself at some level reflects larger issues in the country. i fundamentally believe -- you're not going to know enough until you're 25, 30, 50 years from today. i think we're the middle of a pretty significant alignment, socioeconomic and electoral and tech reflects that at some level. >> when you have the largest figure in tech, elon musk, on the campaign trail, so active in

this election cycle, does that matter going forward? whether trump wins or harrisry wins? >> i think elon is a unique figure and you have to put him in his own category. i do think tech has really learned over the last several years how to engage in politics because they have some aspects that are different maybe than traditional sectors you would have dealt with in the past. they have the ability, at least in some cases, to really be engaged with their users. at times can have millions and millions and millions of users and they can engage those users really in the political process. not every platform can do it. you have to have some aligned interest with your users so they actually are willing to work with you and engage with you on the political process. look, we have seen this in this election, crypto space, the crypto industry has about 20% of the electorate owns digital

assets. i think stand with crypto has organized about 1.5 million of their folks to engage in the political process. that's somewhat unique to tech. tech, because they have various ways to communicate can engage in the public discourse and conversation and finally last, last point, i think also think in tech there's an ethos about actually wanting to engage and actually have that conversation out there. you made the point that in the past sort of have to go into the back rooms where those conversations took place. that's not how tech operates. that's not how founders think. people like to be out there and have those conversations in public. >> i suppose, more so these days. crypto at record highs tonight. what do you read into that? >> i think crypto knows that regardless of what happens with this election the next president will be much more crypto forward and have the most crypto forward congress no matter what. >> right. >> so crypto knows going forward it will get a lot more certainty coming to the policies out

there. >> just quickly because we talked so much about artificial sb intelligence, i hate to get to it last, you the stakes are higher. you relate it to electricity. >> a-i really does transcend partisan politics. i had the chance to spend a lot of time with republicans and democrats. and really the unifying force in all of this is that people do understand that there is a fundamental race going on right now between the u.s. and the people's republic of china, between democratic ai and autocratic airks. and that does transcend partisan politics. you look at washington, d.c., what brings both parties together, it is typically when china is a catalyst for driving the parties together. i do think as we go forward after this election, you'll see an enormous amount of bipartisan work but specifically around infrastructure and infrastructure is basically helping to create enough compute so we have the ability to continue to innovate and

continue to lead on this technology. >> you made that a key issue and factor at open ai. chris, so great to get your insights. thank you for being with us tonight. >> sit a regular thing we can do every election. >> there's so much more to talk about. carl, for now i'll send it back to you at the new york stock exchange. >> great stuff. i love when you bring chris in. thank you. breaking news tonight, nbc news projection for nebraska, donald trump projected to win that, three electoral votes so far. it is a split state, of course, with two more evs up for grabs. we'll keep our eye on any two throughout the course of the night. that brings the total, as you can see there. up next, rbc capital will join us. she's watching and what it could mean for the energy markets. don't go anywhere. you're watching a cnbc special, your money, your vote. we're back in two minutes.

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♪ well, markets came into tonight's election count with a very heavy trump bid. and continues to add to that. take a look at futures. just off of session highs, but the dow does look to open higher by almost 600 points. dollar, of course, highest level

since the summer as we watch getting close to 105, now above it, 105.11. of course, oil what a conundrum that has been for the markets. hanging on to the low 70s here. down just a touch, 71.29. let's bring in helena croft. great to have you here. >> thank you. >> big issues that you see in the event of a trump white house regarding crude? >> i would watch what happens in the geopolitical side. we have trump come back into office, what does that mean for iran? trump's senior advisers talked about bringing back maximum pressure sanctions on iran. iranian exports have climbed to the five-year high under president biden. the question is will we start to see sanctioning being enforced? could we see iranian exports come off the market? what does it also mean for the war the middle east? some of trump's advisers have said that israel should use historic opportunity with hezbollah and hamas suffering

big defeats to essentially strike a blow against iranian nuclear facilities, against the oil facile ities. do we see israel taking more assertive action against iran if president trump is returning to office. remember, president trump said get this war over before i come into office in january. are we looking at a potentially more volatile middle east in the run-up to that date? >> right. all the things you just mentioned, sound oil positive, oil bullish for a candidate who has promised to cut energy prices in half. >> well, that's going to be very interesting because a lot of that discussion about lowering energy prices, about unleashing u.s. production. but u.s. production has climbed to record highs under president biden. so the question is what more can president trump do to bring more u.s. barrels on to the market. now, you could say an easier permitting environment, less regulation going forward, but as we know, shell producers get a lot of pressure from shareholders to exercise capital discipline. so the question is, will we

really see a lot more u.s. barrels on the market? or again just something in the trajectory in terms of less regulation. >> all right, if we're going to drill baby drill a little more and permit easier, does that oil stay home or all about exporting every incremental drop of oil we produce? >> the really interesting story is how much u.s. exports have really gone into global markets. if we think about the war in ukraine, another hot topic if we think about a trump victory, enormous role in helping europe weather that storm. the question about gas is important for the state of pennsylvania. questions about was harris' previous position on fracking hurting her in pennsylvania? was the lng export permitting pause hurting her in pennsylvania? we have to see how this plays out. >> do you think that was poorly messaged, poorly framed that temporary pause? >> i think what was so interesting about that pause is the question of what were you

really hoping to gain from that? you would talk to some biden administration officials saying it's only a pause. we expect it to be reversed. the question is what was the political upside of that pause. >> right. the thinking back then is there's still a lot of capacity coming online in the coming years. >> right. that was the argument. there was some argument i heard on the political side that perhaps that would gain traction with more progressive voters who were much more focussed on climate. again f you look at the state of pennsylvania right now, you have to wonder was that pause a self inflicted wound. >> a lot of talk about next year being yet another historic supply glut, the spread between supply and demand. would you think a trump win tonight or this week changes that narrative? >> i think the interesting question is going to be what is opec do and how does a trump administration handle opec? remember, president trump when he was previously in office was always trying to get opec to put more barrels on the market until we had that crash in 2020. and then essentially became the

de facto president of opec getting the biggest production cut done in order to say u.s. shale. so the question is what does opec production look like next year? how does trump manage his relationship with opec. does he essentially say, look, opec, stick with the plan, put those barrels on the market. how does opec react? >> still a lot of returns to get to. but assuming the narrative continues, we'll be looking for the sbe ninternational reactionr in the week. y y ymt. let's bring in walter isaacson along with aieamon javers. >> good to be with you, carl. >> your thoughts as you've been watching the returns tonight. >> i think this is a pretty h historic shift. you have more than 30 years consensus of washington to davos about free trade and lower tariffs and also free movements of people in capital.

a lot of people got left behind. this is a global phenomenon of a bit of a populous backlash against this type of economic policy. i was just reading michael sandell's book, "democracy's discontent" so many people now who can't have that security of a good job and they blame it on the fact that we've had too much free trade, too much immigration. and whether or not they're right, you can see that in europe. you can see it here. >> walter, you spent about as much time with elon musk as anybody. your fantastic book on him came out, though, maybe before his full pivot to being an american political figure and political icon as well. i wonder what you make of that given the enormous amount of time that you spent with elon musk talking about all of his businesses, his rise to prominence and now his rise to prominence as a political prime mover in this country.

>> one of the last chapters in the book is called the rabbit hole. and even a year or so ago when the book came out he was spiraling, in my mind, too far towards these conspiracy theories. he embraced the populist anti-woke agenda. and you could see just as -- you know, it was happening in a lot of the tech and business industry, too. people grabbing this agenda. so it's not a particular surprise. it's all sort of laid out in the book. >> if trump wins tonight, elon musk will be maybe the most powerful industrialist this country has ever seen with a huge role in the incoming administration in terms of budget, finances, structure of contracting, all of those things, even at a time when he himself is a prime government contractor. how do you think he will handle that responsibility based on what you know of the man?

>> you know, we saw what happened when he took over twitter. and he went in and just within weeks got rid of 85% of the people. got rid of an entire server farm in sacramento using his own pliers and cutting the cables himself. he wants to do that throughout the federal government. meaning, not trim it by 5 or 10% but just total elimination of large parts of the federal government. i don't think, leave aside does it help spacex or tesla, i think he just on this mission. he watched how melay did it, cutting government departments down there. and i think it will be a somewhat brutal sight just as it was at twitter, if he's allowed to go in and try to cut the federal work force and

bureaucracy by more than 50% in some places. >> that's why the phrase temporary hardship, walter made some an impact on some and musk respobs that you would see markets tumbling sounds about right was the response that muck wrote on x. i wonder how you think markets will take it if it comes to pass. >> well, we'll see how much can actually be done. it's far easier when you buy twitter outright to then fire 85% of certain departments. it's a little bit harder in the federal government, of course, as civil servant protection. >> a lot harder. >> and you got congress and congress gets to appropriate the money. but if we see congress -- both houses of congress being in the hands of republicans and all the regulatory agencies you'll see a pretty major shock therapy both to regulation and to spending and to the work force of the federal government.

>> walter, i wonder what you make of -- and we're going to be tracking all kinds of exit polls that try to reflect how men are thinking at this political moment. i wonder where you think -- how you think that alienation played into this cycle, to what degree musk was an influence, to what degree covid was an influence and is that lasting? >> yeah, i think it's big. and i think men, especially young men, you'll see a whole generation that have for a variety of reasons been part of a bro culture, whether it's tech bro or frat bro or finance bro or just working bros. they really feel left out, disrespected and i don't think we've ever seen in this country in the past 40 or 50 years such a gender divide between the two parties. and you know, i think that -- that's one of the most significant shifts in this

election. it was men, especially young men, black white, hispanic, all of them seeming to shift now to being very much part of this populist backlash that's helping elect a lot of republicans. >> seems like there's two moments in elon musk's life that may have catapulted him into politics in the united states. one was this sort of snubbing by joe biden when he brought the ev companies to the white house and didn't bring tesla to the white house. largely because of concerns that tesla is not a union shop and heaped praise on other companies. elon musk really had his nose out of joint about that. that might have been a precipitating event. but also there's this issue in his own family in terms of transgender issues and his own child there that has been deeply alienating experience for him as well. a lot of resentment bubbles up from elon musk around that issue and transgender issues have

culturally played a role in this campaign. do you see either one of those as more important than the other in terms of elon musk's propulsion into the american political scene? >> i think both were important. i could certainly see his face and the darkness that came over it when he thought of president biden looking at mary ba rshs rshs a of general motors and say you led the way with electric vehicles. i think that quarter gm had made only 26. and tesla wasn't even invited to the summit. like wise, i think with his daughter who a wonderful person, musk thought it wasn't just a transgender thing, thought that she had become infected by the woke mind virus. now try to make what you want o what that means, but he felt that this sort of progressive mentality in the private schools

in los angeles, wherever it was, did that. but also the bureaucracy, the regulation, the covid restrictions he's not very good at playing with guardrails, having guardrails put around him and having restrictions. and i think there were, as i describe in the book, about five or six factors that suddenly sent him pretty much down towards a populist conservative path. >> we appreciate you helping us out tonight on a busy night. thank you, walter isaacson. we're nearing 11:00 p.m. on the east coast. idaho, oregon, washington, california and the 54 electoral votes closing in a few moments. we'll get you the results and talk to heidi about what we have seen so far as our election coverage continues.

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our coverage rolls on, we're less than one minute from polls closing out west. here is where we stand in the battle for the white house and race to 270. the last hour nbc projected that former president trump adds to his win column iowa and three of nebraska's five electoral votes. on the other side, vice president harris projected to win colorado with its 10 electoral vote. that means former president trump has 210 electoral votes to vice president harris' 91 at this hour. california with its 54 electoral votes is on deck. polls also closing in washington, oregon and idaho. from here on in, only two states will be open for business and that will be hawaii and alaska. welcome back. isle carl quintanilla. this hour we'll get how tonight's results will impact the next four years in washington. heid heidi heitkamp will join us.

first, we want to update you on new calls coming in from the nbc news decision desk. projecting that vice president harris wins california. that's one less than last cycle. states gone democratic as you probably can imagine at the presidential level since '92. nbc news also projecting donald trump wins idaho, that's four electoral votes. nbc news says oregon with its eight electoral votes still too early to call. oregon has gained one vote since the 2020 election. and washington state also too early to call. let's bring in our team now to discuss the results we have seen so far here at the exchange with me, eamon javers. down in d.c., our washington correspondent megan cassella. more on the moral in trump land. >> we were just talking about elon musk. it's now reportable from nbc news that elon musk has arrived at mar-a-lago. other vips in attendance at mar-a-lago, rfk jr., dana white,

steve wynn, woody johnson, linda mcmahon a whole bunch of names familiar to cnbc viewers are in mar-a-lago with donald trump. the word we're getting is there's a bubbling of optimism now in mar-a-lago as they watch some of these exit polls. they watch some of the states that have been called so far. that iowa result didn't go adversely to them. so i think you would say the feeling in mar-a-lago is the cautious optimism as they watch and wait with the rest of us, carl. >> megan, how about the harris stamp? >> it's an opposite feeling among democratic donors and sources that i'm talking to. part is simply that expectations had grown pretty high in the days and the hours leading up to the polls closing. the iowa poll you have been talking about. there was the hope that the sun belt could carry her through and wouldn't have to wait for the blue wall. none of that panning out. butly say the harris campaign is

still projecting some optimism. we have a new memo just went out from the campaign manager to campaign staff. she's saying as we have known all along, this is a razor-thin race. the clearest path to 270 will lie through blue wall states. they're really emphasizing sort of stay calm. wait for the vote to be counted. we think that this could take a very long time. and they're going to keep watching and projecting because optimism at least externally. one note on just how long this could take. we just had polls close out west in nevada and arizona as you said. at this point, we do know at least in reno, there are more than 10 precincts in the county with more than an hour wait. that folks out there nbc reporters out there say that final results could be delayed hours or delays as they're waiting for that. then in arizona right now it's a

dead tie with the vote that's been counted so far, 49-49. so a lot more vote counting still to come. moral in the democratic party isn't super high right now i would say. perhaps that's an understatement. they are saying we just need to wait and see. >> megan, thank you for that. i want to add emily will kins into the conversation as well. we continue to keep our eye on congress and the senate races, emily. >> yeah, carl. one of the big thing we're watching right now is the ohio senate race. a really critical one if democrats sherrod brown loses tonight, that would mean that democrats would lose control in the senate. we still only have 86% of the vote in at this point. of course, the state of ohio in the presidential has been called for donald trump. but that was what we were expecting. and of course, let's note here, moreno was helped out greatly by a lot of crypto funding. 40 million went into that state in total 204 million was raised

by fair shake, that's sort of the main crypto path that really played in this election. they supported democrats. they supported republicans. and they're really shaping up right now even if moreno doesn't wind up winning a number of folks who will be going back to congress are going to be having that crypto backing and that could mean a lot for what we wind up seeing in terms of legislation being passed, in terps of bipartisan support and the crypto their not resting on their laurels. they are donating to the midterms. making sure they have a war chest going into that. >> one of these scenarios the market has tried to price in is a red sweep. if we were to get one, what would you argue would be the top priority policy positions? >> so, for republicans, if they get a red sweep, it unlocks this special ledgislative procedure they could use, they don't need democrats to move stuff along. you'll see a lot of stuff with

taxes, republicans have already said they want to extend the 2017 tax package. but they're also looking for other stuff they can do with the special legislate i have procedure, things with the border, border security, potentially something when it comes to inflation. i think you need to take a look at some of the green energy tax credits implemented under the biden administration. those might wind up being cut. certainly concern that a couple of republicans have raised. but really republicans will have a lot to do if they wind up sweeping the house and the senate and the white house. i will just note though at this point, i've been watching these house races so closely just waiting to be able to call anything or say anything, but really the only thing at this point we are seeing in new jersey, now projected winner tom kaine, the republican incumbent. he'll be able to keep his seat. that race was seen as close but the republican has won. but still certainly many opportunities for democrats to pick up on the board. the night is still young. the lawmakers who i'm talking

with say really it's still very much a toss-up. >> emily, thanks. talk in a bit. emily wilkins watching some of the down ballot races. let's bring in heidi hei heitkamp. what do you think is missing on the dem turnout side? >> i don't know if it's turnout as much as it is the message. and you know, let's be honest, you have a right track wrong track that is way under water for democrats. you have the economy being the number one issue. i thought maybe the abortion issue would overcome that. i don't think that's what we're seeing here. this was an uphill climb. if you think back 100 days when joe biden was still in the race, i don't think any democrat would have told you that we would even be in the position to maybe even win tonight. so we got to go back and recalibrate our thinking. i think we had maybe some extra

exuberance or positivity that isn't panning out. but it doesn't mean that this race is over. california will make a big difference. and i don't know why it is, new york seems to not count their ballots very quickly. so there's obviously some opportunity for pickup there. and so, i wouldn't call the house out. i wouldn't call sherrod out. where the votes are are in blue areas. but it's not looking good. jon tester is in the fight of his life. so i think it's likely you're going to see a republican senate. i'm not willing to rule out the house or presidency. >> some breaking news. nbc news projecting vice president harris wins or or. that would be eight electoral votes and take her total above 150. 153. mark, are you surprised? i haven't seen exit polling on january 6th and reactions to that or how much that stuck in

voters minds. how do you think it played? >> i'm not so sure how much it played. a lot was baked in. what i'm most surprised at is how much trump is performing with african-american and latino votes. i think there's still been some attrition in suburban votes but i don't know another republican that would have done as well as he has in those minority communities. i think it runs counter to what a lot of media narrative was heading into this election. that's one of the biggest surprise. i also think that i know other networks have already called ohio. i don't think it will be a close margin. i think he will have some comfort room which bodes well for the extension of the tax relief. >> senator, i want to look at how democrats react tonight. if it's not a good night for democrats, how much finger pointing is there to joe biden himself for staying in this race far too long, not allowing the democratic party to have a primary, to -- primaries are said that's where the best candidate emerges because there's rough and tumble and not just a designation of somebody

but a selection where survival of the fittest has to take place. >> you know, i think that would be wrong. number one, what good does that do? what you should ask is not who's fault is this. what you should ask is why didn't we do better? we think we have the right message. we think that we -- we're the party of the people. but the people aren't supporting us. when i started in politics, guess who my base was, people over the age of 56 and working men and women. it's more important that we ask about the democratic brand than it is who carries it. and i think you know regardless the democrats would be held responsible for the economy. >> but the best performing economy in 50 years. >> the economy is great by the way. >> but honstly, you guys, we don't tell that story. we don't tell that story in a way. and you have to look at -- barbara, my great friend from the great state of maryland, once used to say, yes, the macro issues are important. but we win on the macro n cheese

issues. quite honestly, those weren't cutting our way with inflation. they weren't cutting our way as people felt more and more insecurity. i think we're going to be in for a transitional time for workers in america. i don't know that we've really spoken to those workers. and marc and i were talking earlier about -- i would tell you the ad that probably did the most amount of damage was the ads on transgender. so once again that cultural aspect enters even though it doesn't have a big effect on people, it's a message that people didn't want to hear. >> we talked about that being one of the things that drew elon musk into this campaign was his own experience in his own family sort of alienating experience for elon. is it all cultural, though, marc? >> i do think talking about before, you see the older reagan democrats shifted over in support of trump. i don't think it's economic reasons. i think it is cultural.

i do think that the democratic party has gone far too woke and pulled a lot of people in middle america over. >> and honestly, when you're doing better financially, you have more leeway to look at other kinds of issues. and i think in some ways even when you look at the macro issues we're doing okay. but yet i think once people feel discomfort, like farmers. they have the farm bill, they have the safety net. it used to be we would win farmers because the democratic party always supported the farm bill. when the republican party came on board and said, let's spend this money, too, then all of a sudden you have the leeway to move beyond your economic interest. >> i'll be the skunk of this party. i'm not so convinced that the economy is that great and that's why a lot of americans feel that way. sure it is for the markets when you have massive inflation, equity prices go up. commodity prices go up. for the average american experienced 20% inflation four years, the most since the carter years. >> wages are up now?

>> the first two years of the administration they were not. a lot of americans are still feeling that lag. >> gasoline prices are down 20% since the last midterm. median household net worth is up 50% since 2019. >> we could give you a lot of numbers. >> sure. >> over the course of the four years 20% inflation, carl. for a lot of americans they feel that. >> yeah. and what i would say is we had to clean the mess from trump. you clean up the covid mess. you have a supply chain disruption that leads to a lot of this inflation. and then you have -- >> didn't like democrat governors shutting down their states as long as they did. you talk about cleaning up, covid policy hurt democrats, too. >> what do you think the conversation how it goes in china and europe overnight and tomorrow morning? >> i would imagine there's probably a lot of trepidation in european markets and probably in china as well, sure. but i think we'll wait and see how that plays out.

>> china, i don't think -- i think both sides are rushing to see who can be the most hawkish on china, right? there isn't a division between democrats or republicans. i think that the real -- if in fact this pans out, the real concern is what happens in ukraine. what happens in ukraine, what happens to the nato alliance, what happens to the transatlantic relationships. and if, in fact, we see these tariffs -- and i agree with marc, a lot of tariffs that trump put on did not come off. again, you have this protectionist attitude. at what point if it gets ratcheted up do we see retaliation and see increased inflation. >> we talked about the lasting impact that elon musk might have in the democratic party. alexander ocasio-cortez is 35 years old. not too early to talk about generational change in the democratic party as your party

moves forward. how do you think the younger democrats are looking at this issue of the party going too far woke, especially figures on the left like aoc. >> i really dispute what mauk is saying about the party going too woke. it's a label that's been put on the democratic party that they haven't been very effective at explaining kind of what these policies are. but we're ready for a transition. we're ready for an age transition. they picked their next leader. if trump gets elected, it's clear that jd vance is also one of the youngest people ever to be elected vice president, if that happens tonight, or in the next week or so, think about it. and so, we've got a bench that is so deep and so wide and in many ways it wasn't tested in this cycle. and so, it will be interesting to see -- >> bench didn't have an opportunity in this cycle because of joe biden's decision to stay in as long as he did. >> heidi, senator, marc, thank

you. >> we're lively. we have breaking news on the ohio senate. let's get to emily wilkins. hey, emily. >> reporter: hey, carl. well now in the state of ohio, berpny moreno is projected to win that is flipping the state into republican control. he would be beating sherrod brown. sherrod brown is the chair of the banking committee. he has represented ohio for well other a decade now. he had a really powerful role in congress that oversaw banking, oversaw some financial policy, oversaw a lot of the crypto stuff. that's why he was really targeted by a lot of the crypto hacks. $40 million as we mentioned earlier spent in this race on behalf of moreno. moreno, a previous block chain entrepreneur, he knows about this stuff. this is really a respounding win i think for crypto tonight. it's a resounding win for republicans. with this we can now say that republicans will control the senate. i think the only question mark left here may be for their

control is how much. also got to keep an eye on nebraska, of course, you have an independent challenging a republican. but really this is teeing up a really strong night for republicans. for their control of the chamber next year. and then of course gives them in control at least one chamber of congress and kind of lays the groundwork for them to have influence even if you were to see harris win the white house or democrats win the senate. this is really going to be mean that democrats don't get to have much of their agenda done in a divided government and of course it starts laying that groundwork for a republican sweep and that would give that party a lot of leeway to get things done what they want to do with energy and taxes. >> emily, thank you. senator, you were just talking about this race. >> right. i want to make this point, there are five states where we have a divided senate representation. maine, ohio, montana, wisconsin

and west virginia. west virginia is gone. now according to this, ohio is gone. montana is the fight for the his life. by the time this is over, if tammy holds on in wisconsin and obviously susan collins in an gus king, only two states in the union where there isn't just one party representing us. >> is that just a realignment we're watching in realtime. >> that is the nationalizing of senate seats. i saw it in my race from '12 to '18. you couldn't overcome the party label. >> could be down to one. i think cody is doing well in wisconsin tonight. >> is it something about media? >> i think because the public has looked at the senate as a place that is not who is my senator but whether the democrats doing in the senate. i don't think that's healthy for america. i think it's good to have

bipartisan representation where people have to work and get along. and you know, if you're in the same state and your cutting the same ribbon, you will stand next to each other and be somewhat friendly. what happens when it just becomes more and more polarized and more and more extreme and the moderates today, jon tester is one of the last moderates and joe manchin, kyrsten sinema has left and we don't know yet what will happen in that senate race in arizona. and so, it's a challenge. and i think it's something we need to examine as a country. whether that's a good direction. >> another thing, i think it was barry diller on squawk box yesterday or the day before, said no matter which way it goes, marc, it would be good if it's decisive. maybe if the winning candidate -- trump could win the popular vote. i wonder if you think that is a net plus. >> sure, it is, carl. i think the reality is if there's a significant victory in

the electoral college still comes across as a cig any nif kant victory. i think there's more question in the house. we talked about before, trump is overperforming in urban areas significantly. i think a lot of the swing districts are in suburban america. it will be interesting to see what happens as you get to california. aren't aren't those races relatively competitive? >> they all are, carl. that's my point. the senate is clearly going republican. it's not 51-49, give him a comfort to do some of the things he wants and particularly extend the tax relief. but i think the house is more in question because the swing districts in the suburban areas where he's overperforming is in urban america. >> you do wonder going back to trump's first term as president of the united states, we had a sense going in what his legislative agenda was. in those days it was all about repealing and replacing obamacare. obviously they weren't able to do that. if you have a situation where you have a president trump, you have a republican house, republican senate, you got a

conservative supreme court, i mean, it is carte blanche for donald trump to have a legislative agenda the likes of no one has seen to borrow a phrase. what is that agenda? this is a campaign that was not really fought on legislative specifics, right? >> i agree. this is much of a personality contest. even if he did, we had a is a seat majority in the house. that won't be the case. i don't think there's cart e blanche for anyone to have what they really want. >> what does donald trump really want? we don't know the answer to that as we sit here tonight. >> i don't think either side of this campaign laid out significant policy objective if they were elected. >> i think he is going to do the things he thinks he can do and get by without dealing with congress. and he's going to think about the things he can do in reconciliation, which if they have the senate and they have

the house, they can do in reconciliation. >> that's a 51-vote margin. >> right. so when you think about it, what's he going to do? he'll do the things he -- like tariffs. we all forget, tariffs are something we can do unilaterally. i think we'll see some of that. i think the real challenge here is what's going to happen on immigration and migration policy. and if he does start -- he has promised to deport millions of people out of this country. >> right. >> and if he starts that process, what does that look like? he says somebody will say, well, he's only going to deport the criminals. well, you know. >> i'm not sure he has % unilateral power to exert tariffs. congress yielded a lot to the executive branch, but that will be litigated. >> not by a republican congress. >> we didn't do well -- >> there will be plenty of litigation. the last thing the senators want is to secede power. >> they have not demonstrated -- >> a sweep is not very sweepy, right? >> i think it is on the tax

reform. i do not think it is across the board. >> let me tell you, when you look at tariffs, right? trump declared that canada was a national security threat when he put tariffs on steel. >> all it will take is one major company and one major state that a senate will say you don't have the authority to do this. i think it will be litigated but i don't think he minds that because the litigation gets him leverage to negotiate. >> you think he would bristle if cpa did a double top because of inflation. any sign the consumer is ouching -- >> i think he'll say their paid by china or paid by the foreign -- and he's going to have to deal with the inflationary consequences. but it will be delayed. and so, you know, i think he's going to get honeymoon. i think this time he'll give a honeymoon, but i think there's tremendous pushback on appointees that may be too radical. so the first thing you have to look at i think when he -- if

he's elected president, is who is his team and how does he get him in place? and to me, trump is not somebody who wants to negotiate with the congress. >> no. >> he is somebody who will want to negotiate just internally. i expect he'll do as much as what he can unilaterally. and say maybe with some authority i have the mandate to do it. i told you what i was going to do. >> there will be a few senators he'll bring into his cabinet and go through the normal confirmation process. he'll put them in acting roles and wait out the 18 months. >> we saw toward the end of the first months. >> he tried to get people confirmed. at the end all acting officials and acting chief of staff. >> that would be the direction.% >> that sort of goes around the

spirit of the constitution but there is a loophole there which says that you can do this. >> but in all due derns deference to the senate, we have thousands of people politically confirmed by the senate. they don't have the time and don't go through it. there should be reform where there actually is a more serious process to confirm people at the cabinet level. thousands of appointees, the senate doesn't take the time to get to know them. >> remember. another change in relationship. and that's going to be in the senate majority. it's either going to be john thune or john cornyn. and so we'll see -- >> mitch mcconnell is done. >> so can they hold -- if you look at what nancy pelosi built in terms of her majority, they're pretty straight of the line. i think you can expect the democrats to hold. wechb a one, two vote member he can hold the line. that hasn't been true for the republican majority in the house. so we'll see what happens there

with republican majority. >> again, i go back, i think it will be too tight to have a mandate to get significant legislation accomplished. but you can extend existing things like the tax reform. >> and you layer on top of that what's happened with chevron, deference being to rebuild and regulation. there's a whole dialogue that needs to be had. and so we'll see what's happening. but i will tell you, my read on donald trump is he doesn't want to deal with congress. >> that was a good discussion. helps us understand a lot of what we're seeing tonight. marc short and senator heidi heitkamp. polls closed in 48 states. we'll track all the latest results. stick with cnbc all night long. coming up next, brad gerstner will talk about big tech's take on the election and what might happen under a new administration. you're watching a cnbc special. your money/your vote. we'll be right back.

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welcome back. breaking news, late tonight nbc news projecting ing vice presi harris wins washington state. and projecting she wins connecticut additional seven electoral votes that makes it 214 for former president trump and 172 for vice president

harris. we continue to monitor the markets. specially futures which have been on a tear overnight. although, coming off session highs which were plus 600 or so. russell futures got close to a three-year high and bitcoin getting near 74k, just continuation of the trump trade that began to get embedded this crypto's price over the last couple weeks. >> as jim cramer told us earlier this evening the futures don't matter. switching gears what does the next presidential administration mean for your portfolio, especially if you're a tech investor like our next guest. let's bring in the judge scott walker with a very special guest. >> thank you. brad, preekt you being with us on this important night. thank you for being here. >> great to be here. you guys are killing it.

>> carl just told you futures are surging, yield are up, bitcoin surging, tesla surging. what's your view of the markets as you sit out on the west coast tonight? >> i thought the markets were incredibly stable coming into the election. definitely was a move if you looked at, for example, goldman sachs and morgan stanley both have trump and kamala baskets. they definitely moved in the direction of trump over the last 30 days. most people who are market observers thought the market was pricing 70 to 80% chance of a trump victory. i don't actually see huge moves after hours. the futures are up a percent. percent and a half. you know, you see some big moves in individual stocks like tesla. i think you know, at one point up about $75 billion in terms of enterprise value. bitcoin obviously the trades that carl just talked about. but my sense is that that's -- people are generally optimistic.

and you know, if harris wins this thing, if the blue wall holds and she were able to pull out a victory, which doesn't seem likely at the moment, i don't think there will be a market collapse. i think the market was most nervous about a really close election that was contested that somehow there was a lot of controversy but i think a lot of people including the market they just want predictability. markets abhor uncertainty and tonight brings certainty to the situation. >> are you in the camp that says no matter what happens tonight the bigger determining factor is the fact that the backdrop is good terrfor the markets. maybe you'll have more m & a months and years ahead. all that supersedes the drama of an election. >> exactly. think about the backdrop. gdp is growing incredibly strong. we have the fastest growing economy in the world. we have the most innovate i have

economy in the world. our national advantage is probably never been greater. you know, rates -- we see the 10-year backing up to 445. why is it doing that, scott? because the market is saying we think the economy will grow faster than we thought before and if trump gets elected, we think those taxcuts will provide further stimulus so we won't need as many rate cuts. the backdrop looks incredibly constructive no matter who is the president. come tomorrow. tonight it's looking like not only will trump win but looks like that both the house an the senate may end up in republican hand. >> carl set this segment up just perfectly obviously noting that you're a well known tech investor, nvidia, meta, tesla, uber, amazon, what do you think

the near term for that space. >> well, scott, we're entering a new supercycle around artificial intelligence. it's a huge tail wind to these companies. most importantly the u.s. economic engine is turning. and you know, it's viewed that a trump victory would -- whatever you think about elon, he's demonstrated his ability to execute. and so a lot of people think that he really will execute when it comes to government efficiency and reducing regulatory burdens. and so, you know, markets like that. business likes it. now where the rubber meets the road is can they actually get it done? right? and i think there are a lot of smart people. i mean, what's so interesting about the coalition that trump's put together with tulsi gabbard, elon, all three democrats, that are going to help him execute this if in fact he wins tonight, is that you know in some

respects a lot of people said they wanted a unity government. identify heard from democrats already tonight on various podcasts live streams who are raising their hand and saying that they're ready to work with the trump administration if he were to win, including congressman ro khanna earlier tonight. i'm quite optimistic we can do better. but the fact of the matter is we have to remember, the strength of the united states is the strength of its people. the innovation, the ambition. you know, the kindness, the generosity of the people of the united states. and those are both republicans and democrats. and i think that we're going to come together after this election and we're going to move forward but we have a lot of tail wind in the current economy and we're entering this new supercycle where the united states is leading all of the top artificial intelligence companies in the united states are in the united states and it's a great source of continuing advantage. >> how do you view something

like the chips act, which obviously passed by the biden administration, speaker of the house is mused about repealing that. you obviously have a decent size position in nvidia. and you're thinking about i'm sure that issue. as it relates as well to exports. and things of the like. so, what is your view there? >> well, i mean, scott, i think you and i have talked about this before. there are parts of the chips act that i really like. listen, the u.s. needs to lessen its dependency on a single source of chips in the country of taiwan. so, it's great that we encourage tsmc to build fabs in arizona. great to encourage to build fabs in other places. we don't want a single source of dependency on where our most advanced chips come from. at the same time, i've been critical. i don't think subsidizing intel is the way to go.

i don't think the u.s. should be in the business of picking winners and losers. we should focus on the real national strategic concern which is too much dependency on taiwan. >> i have breaking news i'll get back to carl on. beg your pardon for a moment. we'll come back in a second. nbc news projecting former president trump wins north carolina and it's 16 electoral votes. we'll see what that does to the total. 230 to 172. i think megan cassella might be watching this race pretty closely. >> absolutely, carl. that's right. this is a huge prize for donald trump because it is the first big battleground state that has z called. on one hand, not a huge surprise you could say since he has won that state the past two elections. this is now the third time in three cycles in a row north carolina has elected donald trump. josh stine with robinson was called very early in the night for democrats. that made democrats hopeful this

time around that that republican gubernatorial candidate could help the democrats across the ticket. but with that split ticket voting that was going to make the path harder for harris not only in north carolina but in other states as well if that's happening. trump had been nervous about the state. eamon was talking about this tonight. he was down there four times in the last weekend of the campaign. that was another thing giving democrats hope. and just one last point on north carolina, we were down there a couple of weeks ago to do a story looking at all the public and private investment from both the ira and the chips act down there. and north carolina has been booming because of it. no state had gotten more private investment in clean energy since the ira was passed than north carolina including a $15 billion plant from toyota in the central part of the state. that's the kind of thing that democrats have been hoping even if it didn't directly translate to votes it was going to help the economy enough to kind of push them forward. but this is a big win for donald trump down here, carl. >> yep. and the first battleground called by nbc. you can see the others either too close or too early to call.

patrick is here with us on set tonight. saw a lot of these themes develop early in the night tonight. >> no, they have. and i want to take a zoom out here because if you look at all the counties that have been counted and compare to 2020, very few places with kamala harris made gains. which is indicative of not a trump victory in the popular vote by not a negligible amount. >> very looking more and more decisive with each projection. we'll keep o your eye on it. >> let's talk regulation, brad. because the biden administration hasn't been so kind to big tech, google, apple, amazon, meta facing regulatory action or threat thereof. how should we view that from here forward? >> i think in a trump white house, there are few things you should think about.

number one is you know a lot of republicans have been very critical of big tech using their bundling powers to crowd out startups. right? so in silicon valley we oftentimes talk about little tech which is startups and big tech sometimes which are the big hyperscalers that can use the power of their platform to stifle some innovation and stifle startups. i think that will continue to be scrutinized. but i think what we'll see a loosening up on the ability to do m & a. you know, part of the beauty of creative destruction is that somebody can start a business and they don't all have to go public. they can sell their business to google or to amazon and this is part of the creative process. it attracts risk capital. and the fact that we were blocking companies like amazon from buying a robotic vacuum company. i have to tell you, i was just

talking with the ceo of one of those hyperscalers yesterday about a very small acquisition, a company that has $50 million in revenue. he said it would never happen under the current administration. we don't think about it. so here is the problem, all large companies in silicon valley, all large tech companies are basically -- have taken their entire m & a team and put them on the shelf. instead, what they're doing is buying back stock, issues dividends and buying more gpus. i think we'll be better served when we get back to a proper functioning mergers and acquisition in silicon valley always part of the heart beat of this place and i think under a republican administration you're going to get that. >> lastly, where does your optimism sit tonight about your invest america plan, slishl providing a 401(k) like private account to every child born in this country, seeded with $1,000 by the u.s. government. you have been speaking with members on both sides of the aisle. where does that stand? >> i have never been more

optimistic about it. certainly members in the leadership of both parties that are really excited about that. we did some polling recently about 80% of people in both parties, both republicans and democrats are supportive of this. listen, it's essential. if we're going to build a fire wall and defense free enterprise and capitalism, we have to align everybody with the upside of capitalism. we can't leave 70% of the people out of the game. that's part of the angst and populism we see in america. harness the power of compounding. give everybody 1,000 bucks at birth in an individual investment account they earn and let it compound like a 401(k) over time. now weal be announcing many new members of the ceo council. announced marc benioff, michael dell, they've said their companies will consider matching into the accounts of those kids. parents can put in bar mitzvah money and birthday money and all

of these kids now in school will learn the power of compounding. it's a tragedy that americans miss the first 25 years of their lives, a third of their life, when it comes to compounding. if we want to bring everybody into the game, get everybody on team america, i think this is the best idea to do it and the good news is there's already talk in the senate of a unity announcement around this over the course of the next few weeks. so, i'm quite optimistic that you know this is something that both -- the trump team would take seriously. as a way to include more people into the system and as a way to really harness the power of private markets rather than the government. there is no government program associated with this. this is simply creating 3.7 million new stock market investors every year. so, i'm quite positive on it. and stay tuned. i'll come on your show in a couple beaks when we make a bigger announcement on it. >> all right. it's a date. i appreciate you joining us so very much tonight.

thank you. >> kudos to all you guys. take care. >> carl? >> scott, great stuff. getting breaking news tonight. nbc news projecting vice president harris takes virginia. that is 13 electoral votes. then this is interesting. nbc's changing the characterization of minnesota, now saying it is too close to call as really it's going to increasingly for the harris campaign be about the blue wall standing, yes, patrick? >> i think so. i think they've come closer to holding that than a lot of other places, but it's very hard to hold back what we're seeing. >> we're seeing this everywhere. we're seeing the shifts everywhere. and you know, in blue wall states it looks like she's coming a little short. but in places like wisconsin, right? in the south -- southwestern wisconsin, that are historically democratic, your seeing shifts to donald trump for about ten

points. these are rural areas that have long voted for democrats or voted for -- you still have a lot of ancestral democratic holdouts in those places. he has realigned to make those areas look more like pennsylvania. so he definitely has the advantage at this point. >> minnesota is fascinating. too close to call. that's a deep blue state the harris campaign should be winning there going away. too close to call. it's a state i spend a lot of time in myself. there is that sort of urban, rural divide in minnesota as there is in so many states. get out of the twin cities area and start to see a lot of trump signage. >> and the governor, the harris campaign knows pretty well. >> exactly. that's stunning. if she were to lose there, you think about the implications for wisconsin and you think about the implications for the blue wall generally crumbling across the board. >> yeah. the upper midwest is once again we have -- we took a pause from this realignment in 2020, but it has come back. the 2016 patterns have come

back. if you look at the shifts that have happened tonight a lot look like 2020 in materials of the more college educated areas maybe holding out a little bit -- holding up a little bit better for harris. and the rural areas going even more strongly for trump. there's a big question, have you hit a wall in that? how do you max this out? the answer is no, he hadn't. but the key difference between now and 2020 is that it's shifted right. it's shifted towards trump gains when a lot of these places were biden gains in 2020 because of the economy frankly. >> thank you, patrick. coming up next, our trader panel will look at the potential market impacts of this election. cnbc will be up all night. live election coverage until 5:00 a.m. when an extra early "squawk box" takes over. stay with us.

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♪ welcome back to our continucontinue ing coverage of election night. here to help you best position your portfolio on this historic night in america. scott. >> thanks once again, carl. let's just recap courtney where we stand. the futures are surging. the russell and the small caps are up a lot. the yield is up, dollar up, bitcoin all-time high.

tesla is up big. djt shares are up big. what are your thoughts? the market trying to suss out a trump victory. >> trump has a lead and that's really what markets are showing. i think a few of those bar barometers are djt stock and bitcoin. those things have been very -- specifically bitcoin has been pro trump and you're seeing that get priced in. what does that mean for the markets if a trump victory does happen, your likely going to see less regulation which can be good for things lake regional banks and also good for the healthcare space. then you also have things that are in the current administration, like ev tax credits may come off which could boost your traditional auto space. but specifically you have ford which is probably better positioned here as they have less manufacturing in mexico. a lot of positions will start to take off if you continue to see him gain the lead tonight. >> better to be early, tom, than never in terms of your historic small cap call of a few months back where you suggested the russell could go up 50% this

year. not even close to that as we have this conversation tonight. but futures telling a positive story. now what? >> you have six weeks on that. >> yeah. last year the russell 2,000 did move almost 40% in 27 trading days. so something like that could happen this year. but it would, i think, be for the right reasons because if animal spirits come back for companies, and if businesses have cost of money fall and if there is a general wave of mergers and regional banks work and actually biotech start to work, you have so many reasons for the russell 2,000 to go from trading ten times median p-e towards 15, that would be a 50% move. >> the biggest trade in terms of equities to lean into from here if the results end up being that donald trump is re-elected as president? >> yeah. i think financials -- and not just small cap regional bank but financials across the board. and i'm going to tell you, if

you look at the leader board this year, away from tech, it's insurance. insurance stocks. started with berkshire hathaway and work your way down, property casualty, auto, anything insurance has worked, will continue to work in this environment. i also think the asset management space has been a stealth rally, nobody is excited about these companies. they done incredibly well, specifically alternatives. private equity, anything that even looks like a partnership has gone higher. bitcoin is a huge deal to me. i'm looking at this thing at 75,000, all-time record high, there's no reason in my mind why we couldn't see 100,000. something i predicted over the summer in a trump win. this just goes through the roof. that's exactly what's happening as we speak. and then i want to point out the 10-year. you're at a four-spot, 4, 5% yield on the 10 year, that's a high back to june 1st. pay attention because what that's telling you is that the expansion whether you want to

chalk it up to biden or stimulus from four years ago or whatever, that expansion should be able to roll higher if you go by what the market is telling you. >> ap? >> what's getting priced is more than a price victory, a republican sweep across the senate and house. >> 100%. >> i don't just have trump with maybe some more checks and balances. i have some real chance to get meaningful change to laws, regulation, other stuff. i think the sector that i think would have been hurt by harris victory, perception wise is healthcare services. there was a lot of movement when you saw her sort of win that september 11th debate, really underperformed. that space which has low expectations and pretty good pricing power have a really big run from here other the next 18 months and something that people aren't talking day to day. a lot of things in drug distribution and in hospitals et cetera that could have huge moves. >> you're looking at that. big pharma, bioteches, medicare advantage stocks, unitedhealth, things like that?

>> absolutely. those are really well positioned here if you do continue to see a trump victory. something that will be interesting to see is what this does for both business and consumer confidence. you have seen people holding their breath, waiting for this election. there's still so much cash on the sidelines. are businesses and consumers start to make decisions here, put capital to work because that will boost the markets. >> still a lot to be decided. when we wake up tomorrow morning, we could have entirely different feel of what we have at this moment. that's what makes this so interesting. >> i don't think it's just regional banks. it could be morgan stanley, guys doing deals, monster move in some of the big capital markets. >> it was todd out in beverly hills a few weeks back that told me animal spirits were coming back and that's exactly what you're talking about. m & a pipeline that had a cork in it and now that cork potentially gets taken out and you have the ability to do deals. >> yeah. thanks, everybody. carl? >> scott, great stuff.

final coverage for me and eamon javers. there's nothing like a country telling you how they're feeling. >> you get actual vote count tonight. it ain't other until there's other. there's a lot of trump vibes out there right now. but you have to look at the blue wall. we still don't have any of those states called yet. one state called of our battleground, that's north carolina for trump. as we get ready to go off the air here at midnight eastern. that is more or less as expected. and yet and yet and yet there's this feeling that trump might be having a night tonight. we'll have to wait and see in the coming hours. that's why it's so good we're on the air all night tonight through the evening hours. >> eamon, thanks to you. we'll see you bright and early as well. >> back on the air at 5:00 a.m. coming up at the top of the hour, continuing coverage of election night in america. brian sullivan and contessa brewer picking up the action with interviews with landry's ceo and houston rockets owner and chief economic adviser, kyle

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♪ good evening and welcome to cnbc's continuing coverage of the race for the white house, your money, your vote. live from cnbc global headquarters. i'm brian sullivan. it's election night in america. we'll be up with you until a special early edition of 'squawk box" at an early time. how the markets are reacting to the results as they roll in and,

ok; what it means for you and your money. >> i'm contessa brewer. the breaking developments are coming in fast and furious and we're watching the action right now. we want to start with the popular vote, where president trump right now -- and you're seeing the state of the race. where you've got the house coming in with democratsrace, where you have got the house coming in with democrats at 151 and the republicans coming in at 177. the senate right now, it looks like we are shaping up to see the republicans taking four of the seats. the democrats right now have 41. let's drill down on what this means for the race to 270. at this time donald trump is projected to have won all of the red states you are seeing there. they include, of course, florida and south carolina, texas. but the most notable one at this hour is north carolina. >> yeah. we're 230 electoral college votes, obviously 270 to win. the states that are not colored in are the states we're waiting in confirmation