the breaking developments are coming in fast and furious and we're watching the action right now. we want to start with the popular vote, where president trump right now -- and you're seeing the state of the race. where you've got the house coming in with democratsrace, where you have got the house coming in with democrats at 151 and the republicans coming in at 177. the senate right now, it looks like we are shaping up to see the republicans taking four of the seats. the democrats right now have 41. let's drill down on what this means for the race to 270. at this time donald trump is projected to have won all of the red states you are seeing there. they include, of course, florida and south carolina, texas. but the most notable one at this hour is north carolina. >> yeah. we're 230 electoral college votes, obviously 270 to win. the states that are not colored in are the states we're waiting in confirmation for.

of course, pennsylvania super critical. michigan, which by the way cracked in 2016. fulton county with atlanta and, of course, nevada, arizona and new mexico. new mexico thought to be more safely in the hands of vice president harris. again, anything certainly is possible. >> well, as expected, the presidential race is coming to a handful of nail biters in the battleground states. the first one we will look at here is pennsylvania. it has 19 electoral votes. and right now, this is too close to call. let's put up pennsylvania right now. what we're seeing is that pennsylvania has been in the democratic strongholds of philadelphia and pittsburgh and harrisburg. we're working on bringing this up for you right now. what we have seen is those states have seen some turnout that has been comparable to years past. but what we have also seen is

that former president donald trump has been able to switch some of the areas where he lost the last time. >> and the graphics are cycling as we go on. 84% of the vote is in pennsylvania. donald trump right now leading 51.3% to 47.6%. as we showed in our election road trip contest, a couple of counties there. we talk about these battleground states, no, battleground counties. you are looking at north hampton county. pittsburgh suddenly in play as well. so pennsylvania right now trump with a lead with 84% of the expected votes in. but still about 1.13 million left. meantime, let's go ahead and check michigan with its 15 electoral votes. all right. i believe we're going to -- >> all right. let's go to washington, d.c. now

where emily wilkins is standing by. emily, bring us up to speed. >> contessa, it's been an interesting evening so far, similar to the presidential. we still have a lot left that we don't know. but let's go ahead and start with where we're at at the senate at this hour. as you can see, still a number of races yetto be called. but at this point, republicans have secured a major win with the state of ohio, flipping that from democrat control in the senate, senator brown will now be won by bernie moreno, the republican. that, plus west virginia, which is expected to go into republican control with the retirement of joe manchin means at this point republicans have picked up two, which is all they needed to control the chamber next year. of course, there are a number of other senate races to keep an eye on. one i'm particularly interested in is in nebraska. that's been a little bit of a surprise. you have dan osborne running there against the republican. it will be interesting to see

what the balance is if you have a true independent win. at this point, it is not clear who he might caucus with or who he might give his vote to. going now to the house, this is really a nail biter. you have seen a number of these races be so close and not yet called. at this point, both democrats and republicans have reasons to feel good. democrats have picked up a seat in new york, new york's 22nd district. they have also made some good headway in other potential toss-up races. but you have seen republicans win in competitive seats in iowa and new jersey. if they're not pickups, but there are seats where the republican that was up for their re-election, this is stiff competition and they wound up now winning. of course, a lot left to go with the house. there is a chance we won't get a call until next week because there is always california. a number of competitive seats there. they take a while to call. but at this point, we're looking at whatever party that right wing control of the house, it is

likely to be narrow margins. as we have seen for the last two years, they can cause a lot of chaos for the party that's trying to get stuff done. guys? >> thank you for keeping us up-to-date. we do have breaking news now on hawaii. nbc news now projects vice president harris will win its four electoral votes. those go into kamala harris' column. >> we. there is four more. but the big states we are still waiting on, of course, wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan, georgia, nevada and arizona. those are still too close to call. we are also -- we're not just watching the polls, folks. we're following the money in a unique and exclusive way to cnbc. we built basically custom stock portfolios for each candidate. stocks that wall street thinks may benefit from a trump win and stocks wall street thinks will benefit from a harris victory. it is nonpartisan fact-based

analysis, and it could tell the story as the market moves. we will also look at the market index, the stock futures. they are higher. bonds selling, yields are up. trump victory, maybe gold goes up. and, of course, some of the political prediction, not betting. >> not betting. >> you will say that. >> because betting is not permitted in any state in the united states. go ahead. >> correct. these are the prediction markets. there is a few. we look at predict it. going into this morning, vice president harris had a slight lead. right now predict it is giving donald trump not a 94% chance because they don't add up to 100%, but the money is right now in a big way on the former president donald trump. >> it is a wager of sorts. it is where it gives you a sentiment of snapshot in time of where they think the money is going. >> if people put a lot of money on to donald trump, which is actually the blue line at the

bottom of the chart that you are looking at, it's been a very profitable trade, assuming this is how it ends up. it could flip backwards, and they will be caught up. all right. let's look at the broader market moves that are happening right now because there are futures trading. we have london and europe about to open as well. parts of asia already opening, too. and get a broader look at the market moves that are happening in response to these results. and for that, we have got frank holland and more special guests. >> let's take a look at it right now. first we will begin with the futures we were just mentioning. certainly a snapshot of what we're seeing right now. futures in the green. the s&p up 1%. same story for the dow and for the nasdaq. now we want to look at how these s&p futures traded over the past six hours. we will show it to you. let's go back over here. this is when the polls closed in georgia and the majority of florida. there are some time zone differences. we continue to move higher in the futures. this is when the polls closed in

pennsylvania and michigan. time zone differences within the state. then we see big upside moves as the polls close. this is a six-hour chart. we will track the moves on the s&p. you will see here at 10:00, futures stabilizing right here, stabilizing right here up above just about 1%. we also want to take a look at the russell 2000 futures. the best performer out of the major indexes up 2.5%. but a lot of people see this tied very closely to a trump victory, the idea there will be lower taxes and more domestic production. at 7:00 we will see some key polls close in georgia. time zone differences. pennsylvania and michigan upward moves. and then a stabilization across 10:00. as we have seen, you know, more americans come in and more states being called in this election. we want to move on and take a look at the u.s. dollar. also being closely tied by many investors to a so-called trump

trade. upward moves on the dollar, 1%. but up over recent days. here at 9:00, the sharpest move to the upside. this is when more polls were closing and a stabilization around 10:00 as we have seen in the markets as well. we also want to take a look at u.s. treasury, the benchmark, the tenure. so polls close at 7:00. upward move, stabilization at 10:00. very similar story. an upward move at 4.39. earlier today, we're at about 4.3. almost a 10 basis point move to the upside. and we have to check bitcoin. we're seeing some history. historically hitting a high over 75,000, actually pulled back just a bit. again, this is also tied to that so-called trump trade. right now, as i mention, up just about 6.5% trading. just under 74,000. brian, as you mentioned, markets all around the world are closely following these election

returns. let's take a look at asia. japan up 2%. the shanghai composite flat right now. a lot of pressure. down over 2.5%. we will also be following the european markets when they open starting at 3:00 a.m. eastern. before they open, brian, very important to note, we will get the futures, biggest economy in europe, probably an indicator of this sentiment over there. brian and contessa, back to you. >> i know you will be with us the entire five hours as well. of course, anything having to do with the inflation reduction act, so-called clean and renewable energy. solar energy stocks. you have first solar, the etf, the tan, which is the solar phase. anything having to do with money from the inflation reduction act that would go to these energy projects. former president trump says he wants to gut it and claw the money back. i think a lot of states getting

that money regardless of their political persuasion may see it differently. those stocks down 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%. >> for some reaction to all of these race and market developments, let's bring in the former sec chair jay clayton, who is also a former cnbc contributor. when you are watching these returns coming in, are you correlating what you are seeing with the markets with the so-called trump trade. >> well, i think what we saw with almost all those markets was pretty correlated moves, including the prediction market. right around 10:00, the prediction market moved and markets don't trade on cer certainty. they trade on probability of future events. i think we have seen all the markets move. maybe it is the trump trade. i think that's the market sentiment. but it is also a certainty trade. a lot of people went into this day thinking, will we have an outcome on wednesday? will we have an outcome on

thursday? will we have a problem? it looks like we will have an outcome sooner rather than later. that's good for markets itself. >> we have had few reports of market abnormalitiabnormalities. there are few instances of bomb threats being called in where law enforcement said there was not a threat. but so far we're not seeing a lineup of what we saw in 2020 where it looked like people were going to protest how the process is going. that adds a level of certainty. having a clear and distinct winner adds certainty. what about the fact that at least at this early stage there is some indication that it could end up, this is a big if, we're still waiting for the poll results to come in from the western states especially, but if there is a red wave, what happens if the senate, the house and the white house are all ending up in a republican

column? does that create uncertainty? >> i don't think at this point because i think what we heard was we'll probably know the presidential race and the senate race sooner rather than later. the house races may take a while longer. but you made a great point. the fact that it doesn't look like we're going to have what i would say is strife, arguments about whether the election was, you know, held appropriately or not, you take those off the table, you're adding certainty, and that helps the markets. i think the markets -- the markets are showing that right now. >> the idea alone -- >> i don't want to put words in your mouth, but to contessa's point, if the poll results and the current trend of the electoral college and even popular vote were going the other way, if they were going to vice president harris, sort of as clearly as they appear to be going, at least right now, things can change to former president trump that the markets may be reacting in the same way. >> what i'm saying is that let's make sure that we understand

that certainty is as important right now as other factors. look, and i do think, you know, markets -- well, let's go through the evening. you guys have the statistics. there are certain markets that are certainly going to favor the trump victory, and there would be markets ie, the solar that may favor a harris victory. but right now i think we're seeing that stability reflected in the marketplace. >> yeah. you have got anything having to do with increased deal making is perceived to be a victor when it comes to trump. that according to numerous wall street banks. you have anything with the inflation reduction act, maybe a potential loser, a stock to watch. seeing it as a trump proxy that's coin based, but it is also at also tesla. >> another one that is truly a

bellwether for trump is djt. >> trump media. all right. let's bring in another great voice to this conversation because we only have four hours and 45 minutes left in the show, capital management founder kyle bass. kyle, it is great to have you on. your take on the results as we are seeing them right now from a markets and money perspective because i'm not sure that many in the market, even if they had a thought about a potential outcome, the prediction markets this morning were basically tied. this has been an unusual last couple of hours, i think it's safe to say. >> yeah. we're glad to be here, brian. good to see you, jay. look, there is now like a 74% chance that the republicans sweep the presidential bid, as well as the senate and the house. you look at -- i remember 2016. if you remember when trump surprised the marketplace in 2016 with this victory? i was literally sitting in front

of my computer in san francisco and walked through a few victory party celebrations that were black tie beforehand, and i remember futures going limit down, limit down, limit down. the s&p futures were down 130 points when i went to bed. and when i woke up the next morning, of course, they were higher net on the day when trump won. when you look at what's happening today, and as jay was just talking about, you have the s&p futures up about 1.2%. you have the nasdaq and the dow up about the same. you have the tenured bonds down a point or up 14 basis points. the 30-year down 2.5 points or up 13 basis points. bitcoin is up 9% in the last 24 hours. every single market indicator is telling me that trump has got this one. so we can talk about whether to nail -- >> the indicators are, kyle, but we do not know. >> brian, the markets tell you.

they told us that trump won in 2016. they're telling you that he's won again. and we'll wake up tomorrow and figure out whether he won or not. but i'm telling you that it is fairly obvious to see that 41% of the vote is in for michigan. trump is running ahead by his 2020 pace by like 4%. 71% of the votes in wisconsin. he's running ahead by 3%. there is almost no scenario in which kamala can actually get back wisconsin. that's a shocker to me. i thought the democrats had the ground game won in wisconsin. and i think he's -- you know, 83% of the vote in pennsylvania. trump's running ahead of his 2020 rate by 1.5%. i mean, it looks right now that he is the odds on favorite to become president. >> when you look at the predictions markets, to your point, brian, that is a snapshot in time of sentiment in a way that is much more timely. it is where the money is going in the moment. so if you have, you know, kyle,

if you think that the markets are indicating that donald trump has tied this up. and to be clear, cnbc and nbc news has not called it that way. >> correct. >> but if that's what you are looking at this, you are with all the people who are now putting their money in the trade on predicted or in the other platforms that are now doing that. it is a snapshot in time. but the interesting part of this is that we have been gaming this out. the race has been close, not just today but ever since kamala harris took over as the nominee for the democratic party. at this point, then, what is the reaction tomorrow? i mean, the investors have known that this maybe the outcome today. how should we be thinking about where the economy goes, especially in the next three months when you have really a lame duck session? >> so it is a great question. and brian eluded to this a moment ago, talking about deal

making. you have to realize that if trump wins, what you are going to see literally in the first week is a regulatory clean-out. you will see the head of the fdic, the sec, fcc, they are going to be gutted and you are going to see a regulatory clean-out, which means you will see deal making open up again. >> yeah. and, kyle, kyle, let's talk about this in real-time, too. does that mean we wait until january 21st? or do deals start to happen in anticipation? >> yeah. i think, jay, you and i both know a bunch of people will resign right away if trump is declared the victor. so we're going to see the vice chair of regulation for the fed probably resign. we will see a number of people resign pretty quickly. >> yeah. >> but when trump steps in, if they haven't resigned, you are going to see this clean-out. you know, we have seen, especially at the ftc with lena

kahn and her team, jay, you can correct me if i'm wrong, i haven't seen heroin a court case yet. she's challenged so many transactions and gummed up the process. >> i think you're right. i think what we're both saying, which is interesting, is if this is clear, like you say it is and, you know, the markets are saying it is, deal making starts tomorrow. >> tomorrow. >> yeah. >> which is probably why we're seeing movements up again on a lazard on a molis and company. what i just heard kyle say, jay, and we got another great voice to my right, which is if -- if lena kahn, the head of the ftc that wants to break up some of these big companies, if she is out, this is good news for an amazon. it is good news for a google. it is potentially good news for even an apple, jay. would you agree with that? >> i would agree with that. it is good news for energy. it is good news for tech and capital markets and the types of

firms you mentioned because the growth engine that we recognize in america combines all of those with our human capital. so energy, tech, capital markets, human capital in america, it is what has set us apart. i think we will see increased activity because we all know we need growth. >> last week i was talking to a ceo of a company that i cover who said the best outcome for the company would be a split government. and there are some questions now about whetherthat's what we're going to have. with me now, senator heitkamp. and such a smart person to have on a night like tonight when we know that there are pocketbook issues at stake. americans went to the polls and said, they thought america was going in the wrong direction. nearly three-quarters of them. and that the economy continued to be top of mind. even though on cnbc we have

experts talking all the time about how this is a fantastic economy. that message wasn't making it down to very many voters who were dealing with cost of living increases that even if inflation has slowed has not reduced the amount they're paying at the grocery store. >> yeah. i have a dear friend, long-time senator from maryland, and she used to say this. it is just so smart. she'd say, yep, we can all talk about the macroeconomic issues, but democrats win lose on the mac and cheese issues. you know, it is how is the family doing, whether you can afford to send your kids to college. and people feel a sense of financial insecurity, and you are seeing this in the vote tonight. >> that ceo that i was speaking to told me that it has been almost impossible to be in acquisition mode during this administration, that the ftc has created such a fear of even trying to go ahead in the m and a world. is that something that democrats are going to have to wrap their minds around, that they are seen

as bad for business? >> well, i think when you go back, let's not exaggerate it in this moment. let's talk about what -- what sensibly gets rolled back. remember, this is a president -- if president trump gets re-elected -- who ran on a populist agagenda, that the sysm is rigged against you. when they asked what he would do with the google litigation, he said, well, i don't think they like me very much. so i don't know what -- i mean, he's not thinking about how google should be organized. he's thinking about how google treated him. so i don't think we know yet what the reaction is going to be. but don't forget it is that populism, and that's about big business as much as big government. >> we're learning the difference -- i'm sorry. because i want to follow-up with something you said at the top of the 7:00 show, which really stuck with me, which is that -- and i was just out on a road

trip two weeks ago. i drove with my producer to kenosha. we did it a couple years in a row or a couple cycles in a row. everybody i talked to either talked about inflation or immigration. that was it. okay? some voices said things that you would not expect them to say in specific situations. that said, i know that the white house has been trying to sell the inflation story, senator, as it's getting better. and it is. the data is getting better. but the burger going from $15 to $20 and now just going from $20 to $21, you can say that the pace of inflation stabilized. but all the consumer knows is the burger went from $15 to $21, and they don't care that it went up a little more after six months. they're still ticked off. >> what will donald trump do to get the burger back down to $15? >> exactly. >> he can't. everybody talks about supply chain, but a lot of this is wage

inflation. >> so i brought up -- >> and that's a bunch of people. >> it is a one-way street. so here's -- >> this is why i wanted to bring you in, senator, because you are from north dakota. you were talking about your race you lost that you lost the eastern part of the state but you won the western part of the state. oil town. home of the $21 an hour mcdonald's worker. spent $499 to stay at a hampton inn because -- why did they charge to much -- because they could. >> supply and demand. >> i just don't know what the former president is going to be able to do, unless he's going to call for wage cuts, what is he going to do about inflation? >> he's inheriting a lower inflation rate, right? and, so, he's inheriting a fed that's likely to cut rates

again. and, so, the question is -- and the question i would ask if i were, you know, kind of still in the senate, okay, when can we see, you know, eggs going down to $1 a dozen again? when can we see this happen? and it's not going to happen. >> brian, can you hear me. >> the way to have the most direct effect is to get energy prices lower. energy permeates our system. >> yeah. >> if we could bring energy prices down, that's -- >> supply and demand. >> what i'm saying is if you drop every household's energy prices, they have more purchasing power. what people really care about is their purchasing power. the other thing is to bring their real wages up. >> but both of those things have happened. if you look at wages over the last year, the union in nevada, i cover casinos, the union went in and they fought hard and took it to the weekend before f1. they were like, listen, if you don't get this deal done, we will not be working for you and your fancy pants f1 guests.

those wages went up. gas prices are not high. >> they're higher than they were, though. >> not much. >> the biden-harris administration deserves credit for recognizing how important energy was. >> selling half the spr. >> we got 14 million barrels. >> very timely sale. >> basically, they adopted the trump energy policies. >> they really did. kyle, i know you are in texas. you are a man of many things. people say you are the energy guy. what would -- if you got the ear of president trump, if he wins again, and let's say he called you, maybe he will. we'll see what happens. is there any practical advice you could get him or vice president harris if she pulls this out, to do something about household inflation? >> yeah, sure. i think this debate is something that must be further dug into, brian. it is important to note that the federal reserve and congress together with this administration printed 40% more

broad money in 18 months. we put 41% more money in the system in 18 months, and we got about 40% to 50% inflation. look at the government's own housing price index, the housing price index that the government releases, is up 50% in the last four years. we talk about wages. wages are nowhere year up 50%. real wages are down. but the way the fed and the bls computes inflation is chain weighted. so when you look at housing, it is up 50 in four years. car insurance is up 44. you look at milk, it is up 42. soda is up 45. it is up about the same amount of money that was printed. so when we talk about how are we going to get those prices down, brian, and we're not going to get it to come down. what we've got to do now is stop

running 40% of government receipts deficits. we talk about 7% of gdp. but we spent 40% more than we brought in last year at full employment. think about that for a second. we ran a huge deficit of full employment. we are not supposed to do that. so we need some sort of fiscal r rectitude here. >> talking about the deficit is not a motivating factor for voters to talk about how deeply in debt the government is. >> because they're more worried about the deficit between their weekly paychecks and their household bills. >> there is two things. there is a cost of living crisis and a completely unrestrained illegal immigrant opening at the border. i think that's what people are voting right here. >> let me jump in here. i think what -- >> you can't explain the deficit to the average voter. what you can explain is the cost of rent, the cost of milk, soda,

insurance and the cost of food. all of those things is all they care about, and we've got to stop doing what we are doing. >> what do voters want and what do they recognize? they want stability? what is the fed's mandate for stable prices? we want stability. we want to know that housing prices are going to go up by three times so they're out of reach. i think you saw a lot of that. >> well, one of the vice president's policy points was to build three million new homes. if she wins those names could benefit. they're not benefitting in the market right now, but we have a long way to go. kyle bass, thank you for joining us. >> all right. >> and before we go to the break, it is almost like jake's. kamala harris headquarters on the left at howard university in

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kamala harris victory. right now the biggest volume mover, a stock that is up 40% right now is donald trump's trump media and technology group ticker tdjt. 40% move. very heavy volume. another name considered a so-called trump proxy would be coinbase because it is perceived that the former president would -- >> okay. we just have news coming in right now from nbc news, and we can confirm that nbc news is now projecting that donald trump has won georgia. it is a state that joe biden won in 2020. but now the 16 electoral votes in this crucial swing state of georgia go to donald trump. that would be added to the swing state of north carolina, which has also been in donald trump's column right now. so at this point, it looks like, as the returns are coming in, we can see that there is much

bigger hill for kamala harris, the vice president, to climb in order for her to maintain a real shot here at winning the white house. heidi, can you just weigh in at this point? >> yeah. the only way at this point that she wins is maintaining the blue wall. and those races at this point are too close to call. but the trend line doesn't look good. so i think we will know more earlier than what we thought tomorrow morning. >> okay. so at this point, we have, if we're looking at pennsylvania, which is a crucial one, that one is too close to call right now. we have michigan, wisconsin, minnesota, nbc at last report had that as too close to call, but it does not appear that in georgia, where we saw joe biden was able to make inroads. in fact, that's where i was in 2020 when the election finally got called. it looked as though, as the night was coming in, that she was not even able to maintain

joe biden's margins in some of those crucial counties that perhaps there wasn't the turnout for her that there was for joe biden back in 2020. >> and if you think about where the economy was at the end of the trump presidency, it was in the take. we were at negative growth. so you look at the economy and compare it to a race where you're running as the challenger against a bad economy, she was running against really, as almost the incumbent, against a challenger with a bad economy. and the kind of atmospherics. by that, i mean the personality challengesment i thought abortion would play a bigger role tonight. it didn't. people went back to the meat and potatoes, right? they went back to the economy. they went back to what threatens their security. that might it a tough night for her. it is not over yet, but she has to maintain the blue wall if she's going to get elected.

>> and we don't know because it is too early and too close to call. but i will say that if you look at nbc news, 88% of pennsylvania is in. she's down by the same in michigan. it is going to almost need to be a perfect ending. let's bring in another voice to this. we have famed pollster and political expert frank lutz on told. are we going to frank or -- we are going to frank lutz. it is a night i think we can all say we need to speak frankly. >> nice. >> thank you. this is -- and you and i have talked about this online and offline. we have seen your tweets as well. it is shocking. >> well, it is significant. and there is a story to be told here, which is that voters are demanding to hear the solutions from the candidates before they will hear the negativity.

and with trump, they know what he did. they knew where he stood on prices. they knew where he stood on immigration. and there is no reason to litigate the last four years or the four years before it because it's over. the election is over. doesn't matter what spin you put on it. the key is to understand what you did and why and be able to prepare for the next administration. it may actually end up being a republican sweep, which nobody foresaw. i certainly did not. and let me allow one sense of humility and honesty here. i thought there was no way that trump could win because he performed so badly in that -- >> frank, let me interrupt you for one second. nbc news projected that the republicans will control the senate. let's go to our emily wilkins who covers the senate and congressional races for us in washington, d.c. >> well, this was not a huge surprise. we knew that democrats had a very difficult night going into it and now at this point, we can

say that republicans will be controlling the senate regardless of the white house, regardless of the house. of course, this is just for the first block. if republicans can do that republican sweep, that really opens the doors for them to do a lot of things that they want to do, like extending those 2017 tax cuts, eliminating the tax credits around green energy provisions that were put in during the biden administration and a number of other things they could do on border security. that's been a big one that's come up with a lot of republicans that i have spoken with. of course, that is the senate. the house at this point is still very much too close to call. there are a lot of swing races that are just nail biters right now. while we are seeing a few things move, it is too early to say exactly what the house is going to be. it might wind up being the only democratic chamber. if that's the case, then we would see divided government. in terms of getting an agenda

done, that would be incredibly difficult for the white house. >> thank you for that. frank, when you were watching the sentiment of likely voters going into this night and now to see this, it looks like the senate is turning republican. the returns that are coming in for donald trump have been stronger than he did in 2020 and the results for the vice president have been, in many cases, not what joe biden was able to pull off in 2020. what's your reaction? >> the reaction is that it may even be stronger than 2016 when he lost the popular vote but still beat hillary clinton in the electoral college. and in the end, it is to understand what happened. voters in the end don't really like donald trump. and i want to be explicit and honest here and not try to spin anything. he was disliked for how he talked to people. he was disliked for his negativity. and they really did not want to

have another four years of that attitude. they had had enough. but they never got enough information from harris. and i have been criticized for saying this because she ran ads about what she was about. she did a few interviews. but she only did a few. and voters feel they don't have enough information, then trust them, accept them. and, so, they like her more than they like him, but either they did not know what she wanted to do or they did not agree. >> frank, we were talking earlier about the markets reacting to certainty, the certainty of an outcome and heidi was making good points about prices and certainty. could it be that americans are searching for certainty here and they thought that donald trump was going to deliver certainty and they didn't hear that from harris. >> i'm a language guy, and you're close. it's not certainty. it's predictability. as much as the media thinks that

trump is completely un unpredibltable, to the public they knew where he stands on imk immig immigration. she was so clear about it. on tariffs. he was so clear about it. whether that certainty, it is predic predictability. >> i will accept that's a better word, frank. you're right. >> she had been on the side of too many issues, so she wasn't predictable, and that held her back. >> all right. we have to interrupt here. this is a spokesperson for the harris campaign. >> good evening, howard! >> let's listen in to howard university in washington, d.c. >> good evening, hu. i want to say good evening to all of the harris campaign, the campaign family. thank you for all that you have done. thank you for being here. thank you for believing in the promise of america. we still have votes to count.

we still have states that have not been called yet. we will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken so you won't hear from the vice president tonight. but you will hear from her tomorrow. she will be back here tomorrow to address not only the hu family, not only to address her supporters but to address the nation. so thank you. we believe in you. may god bless you. may god keep you. and go, hu, and go harris! thank you all. >> well, that -- that was howard university, the headquarters for kamala harris, which has got to be disappointed for the people that gathered there tonight wanting to hear from the vice president even if she's not able to say with any kind of

certainty what's happening right now. but there he's just saying not tonight. maybe tomorrow. it may be tomorrow before we get an official decision because we know that in some states the voting -- or the counting does not actually begin until all the votes are in and because polls had closed somewhat recently. >> when you say tomorrow, do you mean today? >> oh, yes. right. >> it is today tomorrow. it's yesterday's news tonight. >> thank you, brian, for clarifying that for me. i do appreciate we are talking about today. >> wednesday. >> wait. he said tomorrow. >> he said tomorrow. >> he did, but i think they have been under a slight stress, i would say. >> no, but he's in washington, d.c. >> he's also busy running a campaign. i think as we're talking on television. that is the live scene outside of howard university in d.c. where you just heard the campaign co-chair basically say to people we're not done. nobody is conceding anything, but go home. vice president harris will not

be addressing you tonight. >> well, it was more like you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. >> so let's go back to where we stand right now. we no that two really critical states have been called for donald trump right now, georgia, which biden won in 2020 and north carolina. pennsylvania right now is too close to call and senator heidi heitkamp was telling us that it is the blue wall in the midwest that really stands between another donald trump presidency or the vice president taking over the white house at this point. frank, can we go back to you a bit here and just talk about tomorrow morning when her supporters hear from or today when her supporters hear from kamala harharris, what can she ? what are the driving factors that are going to lead americans through the next four years? what are they telling you? >> they're telling me they do

want to change from where things have been. but they want to change both from donald trump and from vice president harris. that they're looking for a kinder, gentler approach that focuses on results. >> it is hard to believe that if we're seeing these states flip for donald trump. it's hard. what you are saying is they didn't like donald trump. they don't like that mean-spirited nature. yet, there is voting that's happening for him. >> yes, but this is really frustrating because i had gotten this. i had been on a bunch of different channels. it is going to be, if he gets the popular vote, he will win it by 1%. if she gets the popular vote, she will win it by 1%. >> right. >> we are an evenly divided country. we're all screaming and hollering about this is totally trump. this is totally harris. we are half and half. in the end the states are switching, but it's very narrow.

i will use pennsylvania as an example. i remember when trump had a massive lead with even more votes counted. but in the end because of the votes that came in earlier, the absentee ballots, they were so overwhelmingly democratic that it just changed the entire tone. >> frank, you're a historian as well. by the way, we're showing that is west palm beach convention center. that is donald trump's sort of watch party. not headquarters, per se, but where his supporters are gathered. not to get back into the depths of history, frank. think about 1964. '64 was a wipe-out. it was all blue. democrats, texas, florida were all democratic. 1968 completely flipped the nation for richard nixon, the entire nation ironically except for texas and florida, went red from blue. this is a nation that, despite an imperfect system, still has a

system in which the individual voter is willing to say, i don't have to like a person to believe that person may be the best fit for the office. is it? >> you're exactly correct. and in the end, even though personalities does matter, policy mattered more. and i believe that when we look at it, when we do a post-mortem of what happened, that harris -- harris was gaining every week. when she was talking about herself, when she hit the convention, it was all about joy, about dancing, about being excited about the future. and she was still going up. that was her high point. she had been falling ever since that point when she turned on trump. and the reason why is we know what we're getting. whether we like it or not, whether we approved of it or not, we know exactly what trump is where we did not know exactly what harris was, and she never in the end told us to what we needed to know. and i believe that the democrats

are going to hammer each other as they examine this because they ran a traditional campaign, demonize your opponent. trump had already been demonized. he had already been held accountable. in the end, they chose his policies over her persona. >> frank, when she shifted, do you think the trump campaign also shifted to the policies and away from the attacks? the mixed change in both directions. >> yes. but trump still didn't go far enough. my criticism is that he had prices that he owned, a 10 or 12 point lead on inflation, which i call affordability because no americans actually knows what inflation is. but they do know if they can't afford their feud or their fuel, their housing or their health care. if he's focused more on that and less on all this other stuff, he would have won by a bigger margin and he still may lose.

>> yeah. and i want to be careful not to use words like, he would have won because nobody has won anything yet. >> that's why i said he still may lose. >> he still may lose. i was in grand rapids, michigan in 2020 when things towards quickly toward the end. going back, and i don't want to re-litigate history, but you are a guy that does this better than anybody else out there. if indeed harris does lose this election, not saying she will, but this is the trend clearly right now and what the predictions markets are saying, does any of this fall back on current president joe biden, who i did not see him campaigning for today, but staying in the race despite record low ratings, so long, to your point at the very top of this interview did not give vice president harris very much time to basically formulate a policy program. we did not get the better way forward 82-page document online

for weeks into her campaign. does any of this fall on current president and joe biden who is -- i don't think we have seen today? >> it does because of his popularity. his approval ratings and the success or lack of success of his administration was an important part of this campaign. it is why he couldn't stay in in the end and it is why she always struggled to either differentiate himself, which he needed to do, or prove tobe a cheerleader, which the public was not looking for. all that it required was the truth. >> and, frank, when -- when trump did -- or when biden did come out, he made the gap about calling people garbage. so that sucked up a couple days of oxygen for her. now, what i will say is that we came into this race 100 days ago really believing that this was going to be a wipe-out for

democrats. not even thinks there was going to be any choice after that very troubling debate performance by joe biden. and, so, we had 100 days. would more days have made the difference. would a different candidate have made a difference? my advice to the democratic party is start asking yourself the questions, why the democratic brand is to toxic in america today. for so many americans, esp especially where places like i live in, rural america. we will lose rural america when we go back and do all the numbers on this. probably 70/30. we can't be a majority party if we lose rural america at 70/30. and, so, you know, the worst thing the democrats can do is start eating up on each other saying it is your fault. it is your fault. the best thing we can say is we need to re-examine who we are and why our appeal is not a broader appeal. why we can't win an election against somebody so flawed as a

character. and i would argue policy flawed. most people say, how can this happen? quit looking at donald trump and start looking at who you are. >> okay. i'll answer that. i'll answer it. because you did great among women, and good for you. you brought women to the polls that had never voted before and you did better with women than you have ever done. but you did so at the expense of men. and in the focus group. you can go to see the segment of "america speaks." it is a 35-minute focus group of men saying they did not embrace donald trump. they felt disrespected and disregarded by the harris campaign. you filled your ads with young women so excited, and men didn't see themselves. they didn't feel embraced. >> it is exactly what managers in businesses across america learn, is thatappreciated. all of your people need to feel

appreciated. wank you very much. weill take a quick break here. your money, your vote comes back right after this. and can you see a number in the circle? seventy-nine ninety-five. want to try again? seventy-nine ninety-five. i think you might be color blind. i think you're missing the point — hummm. right. okay. now follow my finger without turning your head. uhumm. no, just follow with your eyes. —uhumm. —okay. i don't think you understand what i'm asking. i don't think you know how owls work. get two pairs of glasses and an eye exam for just $79.95 or two pairs of progressives and an exam for $149.95 at america's best.

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all right. welcome back, everybody, to cnbc's continued live coverage. it was coming down to a handful of battleground states. but less so now. here is breaking news in new mexico. nbc news is calling new mexico for vice president harris, 51.3% to 46.4%. but that's very different from where we stand overall. >> okay. let's go to pennsylvania. we have been spending so much time and energy focused on pennsylvania. if we pull that up, we can see how the race is coming in at this point. do we have it? there we go. all right. so now you are seeing that all

of the counties in red are going for trump. it looks like at this point with 92% of the votes accounted for, you have trump with 51.1% of the vote and the vice president kamala harris coming in with 48% of the vote. in michigan trump 52% with 62% of the vote in michigan. this is part of that all-important blue wall for the vice president right now. michigan has 15 electoral votes. in wisconsin 10 electoral votes at this point. and we've got 86% of the votes in. nbc says this is too close to call. 51.2% for donald trump and 47.2% for harris. and there, you know, it is really interesting to see how strong the republican turnout is in wisconsin and a place that i also had spent some time and

some formative years covering politics in wisconsin. in north carolina 16 electoral votes. 90% of the vote is in. nbc has projected he's a winner in north carolina with 51.1% of the vote to harris' 47.6%. >> all harris' 47.6%. >> let's look at where things stand in arizona. right now former president trump does lead from 49.9% to 49.2%. too close to call. not the situation in georgia. georgia was the closest election in 2020, and trump being called the winner. and then in nevada, i think what we are getting at, and we will get to frank in a moment, but for months this was being called one of the most closest races in

history may not end up being, actually, and may not be top five or top ten. we will find out. we are going to the balance of power. remember, key senate and house races also at stake. let's find out where those stands with emily wilkins. >> as nbc has called, the senate is in republican hands for the next two years. republicans flipped two key races, west virginia which was not a surprise, and ohio, which was a really big one. it was not sure that brown would be able to hold on and moreno is able to win there. we are watching a number of swing states at this hour, and these are all tight races. it's tight in wisconsin and michigan and nevada and arizona, and you still have montana, another potential pickup for republicans. swinging over to the house.

there were a lot fewer tossup races that have been called but in the northern eastern part of the state of nebraska, cartwrite held that, and now he has been defeated. pennsylvania, so many key races there and this is a early indicator as to how voters are thinking about candidates this time, ousting a long-time democrat in the state and replacing him with a republican that did campaign on the principles that are usually considered more democratic, and tonight you have seen that pay off for him. we are continuing to watch the key house races in pennsylvania as well as elsewhere.

there are a number of competitive races in california, and as we know from past experience, itcould take a while for that state to come in. >> we are waiting and watching this, and many of those are too close to call even where the results are coming in. with us on the desk tonight, former senator, heidi heitkamp of north dakota. when you are looking at the senate and congressional races, how much do those races come down to the pocketbook issues, and are those races driving the turnout for voters as in the presidential election? >> it's interesting, because we have done a lot of analysis in the country to talk about democrats talking to rural americans and re-introducing democratic policies, and what is interesting is the senate has been a predictor of what happens in the presidential, so if the presidential goes in that state, usually the senate race will go

to that within a certain margin, and so within the three straits that we are talking about, the blue wall, there's three senate races, in those states, one an open race in michigan. the polling consistently has shown that all of those candidates can outperform harris, that maybe four -- anywhere from 3% to 1% better. if she's not successful in the blue wall, that jeopardizes three senate seats and we nationalized the senate in ways that have never been done before. i talked about five states left where you have a democrat or republican, a mixed ohio, montana, both of which are in jeopardy. wisconsin, you could see wisconsin now going -- having a complete republican district. the only one left after this if -- if we lose those states

would be pennsylvania, because pennsylvania would flip and there would be a democrat and a republican. >> where mccormick is ahead, by the way. we are doing this in a unique cnbc way and letting your markets and money tell the story. let's get to more on what is moving now and let's send it over to mr. holland. >> we talked about the trump trade and bond yields have come up. tim, we have not seen futures move at all in the last two hours. what does that say to you? >> we get the first spike in futures after dade county was clear, and it was expected but to that magnitude, and that was a predictor and futures have shot up and they have been sideways more or less since 9:30

p.m. and bond yields spiked up to 446 and that also pulled back. the dollar pulled back. i think the sense is people were positioned for a lot of this and this is what we are seeing. >> you are seeing a lot of positioning for a possible trump victory is what you are saying and that's why we are seeing the markets move sideways. you have done coverage of investors overall. we talked about some of the currency moves, and the chinese, and another currency making moves against is the peso. what does that tell us about investors? >> we are seeing the trump trade across the global markets, whether it's peso and even tesla and all of the assets are getting hit, and investors were

surprised about the speed that the trump train was going through the markets. well, investers have been telling me government bonds is where the action has been. we have seen inflation expectations rise in the last few hours in anticipation of a possible trump win. >> we are talking about the fact that we have overnight trading and we have a stark difference than in previous elections, where we have overnight trading and the proxies tied to a presidential candidate. >> it has changed how we think about the elections, and there was an investor today placing a bet in the prediction market that trump would win the presidency, and that never has happened before and investors

have not been able to do that legally and it changed the face of the race and even rippled into the bond market and even the stock market, and the market has been predicting a trump win and other markets are coming around to that as well. >> and let's talk about the new market she's talking about. small caps have been the best performer up over 2%, and a lot of that tied to a trump trade. >> yeah, with all the inflation expectations now and the bond market doing what it's doing, the fed will do it's 25 basis points on a cut. the question is what is that statement going to look like. it was a fed meeting we were focused on and those dynamics are clear. gold actually pulled back and that conversation about predictability. gold was in play going into elections about a lack of predictability, and i would say

equity markets, if you think about where we were on that fateful day on august 5th, they are up from a month and a half ago. positioning coming into this is almost the way it turned out the way it is. let's see if there's a sweep and investors will react to that. >> before we get to the if youchures, let's talk about the asian markets. give us a sense, when you look at the action on the asian market, and a lot of big name stocks like alibaba, and what is that telling you just about investor confidence in a possible sweep and the general sense of, you know, the tariffs being something from a proposal to an actual reality with the

idea that former president trump wins the election? >> i think if you look at how investors have been trading baskets that could give them exposure to companies that would be hurt by tariffs and i mean u.s. companies, dollar tree and lululemon and maybe nike. there are people assessing the asian impact of trump policy. if you look at japan, the yen is significantly weaker again and that's good for an export economy and they are an ally, and that's something that might play to japan's favor. no question asia should be reacting and the world is reacting and china, those 60% tariff headlines are things that i think investors are very fearful of. >> what kind of action are you expecting when you look at the futures? are you expecting shorting of

stocks that could be vulnerable to trump, unquote, trump policy. other stocks, especially in the commodity space, analysts are saying new correspondent, and cleveland-cliffs would benefit from a trump presidency? >> well, trump 1.0, and we will see if it's trump 2.0, but the question really, the jury is out whether that's a good thing. commodities with the dollar spiking higher will be under pressure as well. >> thank you both very much. contessa, we will toss things back over to you. >> frank, thank you very much. you're watching "your money, your vote" here on cnbc. we are watching the election

results come in and it's too close to call at this point but donald trump has won key and critical states including georgia and north carolina, and nbc news has predicted the republicans will now control the senate. a quick break and we will be a quick break and we will be right back there's chewy. everyone's running to subway for three all new spicy footlongs. wait, subway did what?! that's right, they're bringing the heat with .racha, jalapenos and all new ghost pepper bread. but hurry! these subs are only here for a limited time. ♪ oh, if you want to view paradise ♪ an ♪ simply lookt around and view it ♪ ♪ anything you want, do it ♪ ♪ want to change the world ♪ ♪ there's nothing to it ♪ ♪ there is no life i know ♪

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welcome back to cnbc. you're watching right now a live scene from palm beach, florida, where former president trump is expected to speak at his campaign headquarters at 1:15. here we are at the convention center in florida, and when we see him onstage we will bring that to you. i should mention at kamala harris' campaign headquarters at

howard university in washington, d.c., a spokesperson said we will shut this down for now and she will talk to you tomorrow, which he meant today. >> i think the smart thing for him to do here is not claim victory, because he's this close. if he comes out and says we will wait until tomorrow and there's much more -- >> he has not won, we want to be clear, and if he were to take wisconsin, pennsylvania -- again, should the former president become the first president since grover cleveland to win with a gap, and cleveland won and lost and came back and

won again. we will see what happens. we are joined on the telephone by a friend of cnbc as well, and he's the owner of the houston rockets, and thank you for joining us here. from a businessman's perspective, do you change anything about the way your multitude of companies operate under either administration, and we know which way it's looking like we may end up? >> well, things are going to operate totally different because you are not going to have all the commissions harassing businesses, the fec, the ftc, the faa even. you have all these commissions that are five-person commissions and they are different than they are under a republican administration. it will be a lot easier for everybody to operate in business.

you used to go and sign up a deal and hire the bankers and then you go and get the lawyers. now you have to go and hire the lawyers first to see if you can even get the possibly deal through the ftc, so this will change everything. you will see the m&a activity totally ramp up again in the united states. >> so if you wanted to build a new golden nugget casino in a state, and on the national scale you believe it would be easier for you to go out and build or buy new businesses? >> 100%. i have dealt with two different commissions on two different issues, and one of them didn't go my way and the other one, i was told by my democratic advisers, you will never get through this commission because

of the chairman, because you are a republican. this was a truly been weaponized white house and i saw it myself. >> a point tillman is making goes to pending cases. we are in a unique position where regulators said i am bringing cases i know i may lose but i want to change behavior anyway. if we have a shift -- >> why would they do that? just a bully? >> because they don't think the laws are strong enough. lina khan has said that, she's pushing people to do new things. >> and tillman used the word, and do you think some of these acronyms, the three-letter agencies, are they bully and harassing the businesses? >> they are pushing beyond the

law and for pending cases they should do a review and i bet 90% or 70% of the cases are down the middle of the fairway in the routine, but probably 20 or 30% of the cases would say, you know, this is clearly what the courts told you you shouldn't do, and it's bullying and they should drop them. >> brian, let me tell you what happens, is that you do the multi-million deals and you have a bank commitment and the bank commitment runs out nine months, 12 months, 15 months later. what happens is they don't tell you no. they never give you a yes. the contract date expires and the commitment for financing expires and that's how they do it over and over again. >> we have seen it, and another

donald trump administration is largely seen by experts that it could increase inflation and make things more expensive. are you concerned about your customers and maybe they will be able to afford a night out at the rockets or a night out at your restaurants? >> contessa, i understand the question, but i never have seen it before. what is donald trump going to do? okay? say he does the tariffs. if the tariffs happen one way it should protect us another way, okay? i don't get what you are truly asking me. where is he going to wave a magic wand. what happened was with inflation is we put so much money in peoples' pockets for three years in 2021 and '22 that so much

money was spent and there was a supply and demand that we couldn't -- >> and 2020. >> -- yes, yes. and that's what caused inflation was strictly supply and demand, and even today because people do not work like they used to. it's hard for anybody, still. it used to take you nine months to build a restaurant. today it takes you 14 months. it used to take you four months to get a permit. it takes you eight months to get a permit. everything is just different today. trump is not going to be able to wave a magic wand and fix that, okay? we just have to make people go back to work and work every day and keep the economy moving like it is. >> one of the other issues that voters have said is very important to them, and brian was talking about driving through, you know, the midwest and hearing it over and over again

is immigration. how do you see immigration in terms of hiring and finding enough labor and talent? do you need congress to go back at it again? they failed to pass immigration reform, and people here legally applied for asylum and can't work and you have people not legally permitted to work and do you need them legally able to work? >> 100% that's what we need. this is my biggest issue with immigration. you have to understand, i am in businesses -- i love the hispanic employee that wants to come over and work hard and support their family, but they don't even let them -- they want the united states government to support them and they will not even give them a temporary work visa while they are over here. you could sit there and watch them lined down the streets of new york and coming down from

the hotels and there can be a business there that has a help wanted sign and they cannot go in there and work because if we hire somebody who doesn't have the proper documentation, we get fined, okay? yet they can sit there on the curb and go cash their checks. the system is broken. it has to be fixed. you can't let the people in here and then make them wait possibly years to get a work visa. >> i will say, too, one of the interesting things you are seeing as election results come in and as people say what is top of mind for them, the republican governors who put migrants on buses or on planes and sent them to northern cities, to democratic strongholds, it was a brilliant political move because what it did was it shared the burden, it turned bleeding hearts in new york city -- and i know -- into people that question, right, this is -- it's not that we don't care about

people, it's that it really overloads the system. this issue of immigration is -- it should not be a white house problem. this should be a congressional problem. it's a problem for the senate and the house to tackle and get legislation done. >> we will see if that can happen, because, again, the election is not settled and the senate is not settled and it looks like it will be going republican, and we are waiting on the house as emily has talked about. tillman is hanging around. we are bringing in mike short, a cnbc contributor. we have senator heidi heitkamp here, and we have a billionaire owner of the rockets and golden nugget casinos and landry's. this was supposed to be a historically close election and it may end up being that way and

it may also end up not being that way, and it's not over that way and the results are % certainly one way. to what do you ascribe this strength of trump over harris? are there one or two business and money issues that you think are critical to this move? >> sure. i think 70% of america says we are on the wrong track. i think you have seen a regulatory state oppressive for a lot of businesses across america and i think you have seen inflation driving a lot of unrest in the first years of the administration and the policies of the biden/harris administration, this is an indictment against them. i would say the biggest surprise, brian, is i think when you are seeing trump over performing tonight is in the minority communities and in light of some of the commentary i think the media would be surprised to see how well he's doing in latino communities and

african american communities driving the race that was going to be close, but the more numbers that come in it appears it's not that close. >> by the way we are expecting former president donald trump to address some of his supporters in southeastern florida very soon. i want to go back to you, and you were talking about the frustration with the red tape and bureaucracy and being able to do a deal nine to 14 months. there's a chance according to prediction markets of a republican sweep, the white house, senate, house. as one of the most successful business people in the united states, what would want jobs one and two to be in a new administration? >> well, you want a good

economy. i don't think there's a problem with jobs. people are out there. i think that's your question. i am trying to put it in a box here. i think that even without the house, i think the president will be able to do some executive orders to keep things going the way they are today, but i do think that we are going to fix inflation. inflation has come down. people are not voting trump back in because of just the economy. we do not have a bad economy. they are voting him in because of so many different issues. a huge issue here in texas and new york, and i'm in both places, but people really struggle with men in women's locker rooms and that's a huge issue. a lot of women that have a problem with the rights, they

could not get passed the progressive movement they want to have out here. >> senator heitkamp, we talked about it at the break, and we have to address why the election is going the way it is, and something i noticed that all of my road trips in '16 and '20 and this year, and there was a democrat, he was a blue-collar democrat and they like the steelers and like watching the cowboys and liked drinking budweiser and they were proud to be an american. as the democratic party appears to have shifted to more progressive issues. those are not issues that the plumber in pittsburgh is going to be onboard with and it goes to your earlier point that the democrats may have a larger problem than just tonight?

>> well, i mean,bably the most powerful ads, especially in senate races were on transgender issues. we can't ignore the cultural aspect. as trump has been very pro working man, especially on trades and tariffs, and so he spoke to their concerns economically, you know, supporting a farm bill and farmers speaking to their economic concerns, and that opens up the door to have a whole discussion about expanding the dialogue to go into other places. i totally agree. i think the cultural issues haven't gone away. i think there's a huge and very troubling gender gap in this country that needs to be addressed. if you think it's bad now, take a look at young men and young women. it's tkgetting wider. we have to address it. >> we are just pulling up the futures and they are up in a big

way. the s&p 500 up 1.23% right now. dow jones industrials opened almost 700 points higher. here you are already seeing the reaction. the former sec chair is with us at the desk and marc short former chief of staff to mike pence as well as tillman is joining us. talk about the reaction you are seeing? >> it's a reaction to certainty, and a belief that the trump plans are better for the market performance. that's what we are seeing at this moment. >> to be clear, we have not called the race. there are still many races, state battleground races too close to call. >> but if he wins pennsylvania, and nbc news has not called it, it would be 264. you would only need one more

state to take the 270 to win. by the way, nasdaq futures up 280 points. general motors, and the robinhood trade, by the way, gm and ford, they are both higher and maybe that's a pro worker or a reduction of the ev tax credits where gm and ford feel less pressure having to lose electrical cars. health insurers seen potentially benefiting more under a trump presidency, and the hospitals would benefit more under a harris administration, so the insurance stocks -- mastercard up 0.6 of 1%. it's interesting what you said, we have a good economy, till. you have different levels and price points all over the united

states. masstro's in uptown houston is packed all the time, and there are other restaurants and you are seeing other discernible trends in the economy? >> where you are seeing a problem is in the higher end and not in the casual, but you are seeing a problem in the higher-end restaurants with $180 check averages. you also have to remember you have to go back and look at reality and look at 19s numbers, because '21, '22 and part of '23 we were using monopoly money, there was so much money in the system, people were getting so much money from the government. we are just back to more of a reality now. reality in '19 was not a bad place to be. if we could just stay there, i think everybody is going to be

fine. it's a little soft in vegas in gaming right now, but you have to remember they're so much higher than '19 numbers, and all of these companies and individual properties are doing 15 to 25% more ebitda per property than 2019. >> and dealing with more wage pressure because the unions were successful in getting historic contracts and they never got as big a raise, and by the way you had donald trump out there promising all these hourly workers that they wouldn't have to pay taxes on their tips and then harris said, right, i am with that, too, no taxes on tips. nobody was pointing out that might hurt people in the long run when they are not socking that money away in the social security account and when they are sold not having that social

security money coming to them could be a problem. tillman it's great that you bring up vegas because it stands as the bucket trip of american trips. the las vegas strip is immune from any sort of inflationary pressure being felt in other places around the country. the regional casinos had a bigger problem. i don't mean to get into gambling, and not like tillman does, but as far as reporters go. mark, when you are looking at the nation and what is going to make people feel like america is on the right track? 75% of americans in an abc poll released just last sunday saying america is on the wrong track. what does it take to get these people feeling like, hey, we got it pretty good and we live in the land of the free and the home of the brave? >> contessa, i think there are

several fronts. economically, jay hit on it before the regulatory state has been too oppressive, and there's a pursuit of a woke agenda on the left and you highlighted that with some of the transgender issues and i think that's why there's a cross over from the latinos and african american community to support trump, and a lot of the biden support began to erode with the disastrous withdrawal from afghanistan. i think the demand for change is pretty clear. i think by nominating harris after biden, it's too hard for her to distance herself and say she would be different. she's tied to that administration. america was yearning for a different course than what they have been experience over the last four years. >> there were a lot of republicans after january 6th

that parted the ways ideology with then president trump, and when you look at the results rolling in tonight, it looks like trump has truly recaptured the beating heart of the republican party and that those that distanced themselves from him do so at their own peril. how do they act in the nation's best interest in businesses' best interest with him in the white house really setting the doctrine and the path forward for republicans? >> yeah, contessa, i think there's no doubt that he has command over the party today. as i say, i don't know another republican that did as well as he did in minority populations. having said that, i think the trump campaign this time is different than what he governed as in trump 1.0, and i was trump

affairs director when we passed some of the reform, and he walked away from some of those positions and campaigned differently like now saying he was going back to the salt reduction, or whether or not it's taking a position on trade that is vastly different or if he takes a position on tiktok and flip-flopping on that, or his commitment to life, and i think there's things different in the trump 2.0, and i don't think anybody recognizes that. >> let me jump in and talk about the trump economy. it has something remarkable that people didn't think was possible, 3% gdp growth, and less than 3% unemployment with

no inflation, and if you said that was the economy through 2019 and 2020, and heidi will jump in and say we were running a deficit, but we were running a lot lower deficit than people projected and there was more revenue produced, and those numbers were numbers that people said were not achievable, particularly the real wage growth particularly among african american and hispanic people, and those were great achievements. >> yeah, and he promised us he would protect us and so he had negative gdp growth -- >> we shutdown all of our cities. >> i want to get to that, and tillman and i have talked about this ad nauseam, because we live here in the new york and new jersey area, and i will get

another cup of coffee. >> now? >> decaf. we were locked down about a year and a half here, and then i would get on a plane and go to houston, and there would be a two-hour wait at one of tillman's restaurants in late 2020. i went to charleston, south carolina, marc short in february of 2021, and i don't want people to say you are being irresponsible, but i went home and went to the basement, but a three-hour wait at a restaurant, and then i came back here and everything was still shutdown. we will wait and see how the final vote comes out across these things, and you can say if i am wrong or not -- >> i am agreeing with you. >> the extended lockdown of schools and churches it still resonates on many suburban moms'

minds. >> yeah, absolutely. i had this conversation with one of your earlier panels and i totally agree with you. i totally agree with you, that the lockdowns were so oppressive and democratic governors had a big impact as well. >> go ahead, tillman. >> i was on governor abbott's committee. do you realize that this happened on february 20th, and we opened up texas on march 1st -- not march 1st, we opened it up on may 1st, texas was open again. the one thing we paid attention to for the next 18 months, as i watched so many of my other properties closed around america is our percentage of cases per popularation were not more than any other states, and -- >> it was all the same.

>> i will tell you something, exactly what you said a few minutes ago, i believe it was marc, but four years later, people are thinking about that and what happened to their families, the amount of families that broke up, and the amount of people that died from noncovid ailments because they were scared to go into the hospital because once they got there nobody could come and see them or they couldn't get in. i will tell you, that's part of this election right now and it's something we have not even talked about. but when people walked in there they think about democratic control, we are going to control you and tell you what to do. >> i think every american should be asking do we have a better plan today than we did in 2020 in dealing with a pandemic. i have not seen one review by the federal government of whether it was appropriate to shutdown or not shutdown -- >> you know they are never going to do that. >> if you think it was a

motivating factor the idea that the government will go and control you and tell you what to do with your bodies, then abortion, why are we seeing the results so skewed? >> i don't know. what i am saying is new jersey went to harris, but by the smallest margin to a democrat, i think, in 30 years. it's a five-point margin in a reliably blue new jersey. it's a state in which i live in. something, and i don't know what it is, and senator heitkamp, maybe you do, but something has changed. >> yeah, i think the best thing we can do is rather than litigating the past is think about what did we get right and what did we get wrong? we don't even hear that. >> i totally agree. >> i was part of the heritage

foundation effort to talk about whether china should be held accountable for what happened when they knew it could be airborne and the damage it could cause, and did we make mistakes? i think absolutely. i will tell you as a parent i think everybody is concerned about what happened with education and the fall back. it was a deadly virus and it killed people and let's not ignore that. >> there is threats right now, donald trump and joe biden have had to deal with horrendous hurricanes that have hit and destroyed massive swaths of the nation. ai is an emerging technology that is changing our world faster than anything we have ever seen. there are geopolitical uncertainties right now that could truly cripple not just our economy but our nation as a whole, and marc short, when you are looking forward at what are

the priorities for the next president, what -- as you said, you are the former legislative director. what should be job number one for the legislation and the new house and new senate and the administration? >> i think both campaigns did not have a policy for working can congress, but the top policy would be extending the tax, and individual rate cuts expire in 2025, and i think that will be the biggest battle and the senate will have more than 51 republicans and that provides more of a cushion that gives us a chance to extend that. >> you used the word priorities, contessa, and a lot of americans were asking what are the government's priorities? are they spending money on

migrants and not my community? >> we have breaking news coming in right now, nebraska, and it looks like donald trump has picked up an additional electoral vote, and right now nbc is projecting he will get four of the five electoral -- >> they have a unique system in nebraska where they don't all go to the same candidate, and it's them and maine where you will see that format. >> we will wait and see what happens with the fifth electoral vote. >> i don't think you can win that one. you can only win the four. it's impossible in that district. so next, your competitor has called pennsylvania, just to let you know. >> nbc news has not called or confirmed pennsylvania as we have reported. pennsylvania had over 90% of precincts reporting with donald trump having a sizeable lead but

nbc news has not independently called or confirmed that could be clear but we may get one any minute. >> i was going back to the priorities, because the constituents we were talking about did not feel like they were prioritized by the biden/harris administration. >> it's the adults in the room, and i would bring in all the governors and mayors and say we cannot have people waiting two years to do a simple project. we have got to get moving on infrastructure. you talk about ai. guess what? we don't have enough energy to run ai in this country. we got to build infrastructure. we have to build power lines. how are we going to do that if it gets stopped by the -- >> i don't know if we can do this guys. this is called producing from the desk. constellation energy, cge, throw

that up, that and robinhood, and ferc whacked a deal where amazon was going to get power from a place called talon energy, and the entire nuclear swath got whacked because they thought the government wants nuclear power but doesn't want technology to have it, and they want it for homes. can you judge that all you want. if we see a trump victory and they deregulate the energy side, because we need the nukes, a name like a constellation, quantum services, and wulf, they could double that all at once. >> going back to certainty, if you don't have permitting reform, who is going to be investing -- >> 75% of the ira money is yet

to be spent. we will see what happens. let's get to washington, d.c., and emily wilkins with interesting exit polling data on trump and independent voters. emily. >> independent voters were one of the groups at the election we knew we would have to keep an eye on and we are seeing from the exit polling trump made gains with them from 2020. for 2024, harrishas an edge with independents, 50% for harris compared to trump's 45%. as we look at the numbers come in, we saw biden have 54% of the vote in 2020 while trump was only at 41% when it came to the independent vote. what you are seeing now is trump has gone ahead and made gains with the independent voters the same way we have seen him make gains this evening with latino voters and the same way he has

made gains with young men who have gone to the voting polls. that's going to be as we are looking at the states and as we are telling the story of what we are seeing tonight, certainly a big part of the narrative of how trump got these groups and their support and got them to turn out and vote. >> emily, thank you very much. we appreciate the big wrap-up there. it's interesting when we have been watching this tonight, and the real -- the passion behind % what was going in the race and how it has come down, and it has been a very orderly accumulation of votes and accounting of votes and a departure from what we have seen and what we were led to believe might happen. >> it was everything what we hoped for, and no matter what side they were on, they would say i hope my person wins but i hope it's quick.

>> we don't have a full election result yet, okay, but it appears we are getting very close to a full result. assuming the result holds, the numbers will be so large as to not be a result that can be contested. i think what you are suggesting, jay, is however this went tonight, if the numbers went the other way to vice president harris, that it had to be big enough and clear enough that there were not lawsuits and petty fights and accusations of theft and stolen elections. it appears to be large enough where we will have a clear result by, i would say tomorrow, contessa, but it's actually today. >> yes, it is today. by the way, the video you are watching right now is from palm beach, florida. we are expecting former president donald trump to speak at any moment. we have been expecting this for some time. about an hour ago we were

watching the vice president's campaign headquarters at howard university where a spokesperson came out and told the crowd we are still in it, we are not shutting down but just shutting down for tonight and they said they would hear from the vice president later. >> it's clear that new jersey is not called, but new jersey right now is within about a 5% range. new jersey is not called but it would be if it was called now, and steve kornacki posted the closest within 30 years. >> it's west palm beach. >> let me go to tillman, and i think tomorrow morning every business is going to ask themselves, what does this mean for me? what can i change and what investments can i make with what we think the results will be

here. people will hit the ground running tomorrow with the certainty. we are seeing it in the markets tonight and will see it continue tomorrow morning. >> and michelle cabrera, we know her as our friend and former colleague. it's good to see you. i know you have spent a lot of years watching these results come in and predicting what it might mean for markets and what it will mean for businesses and for wall street and main street. give me a sense of from where you are sitting right now what you think? >> a couple of things. first of all, i think the reason you see futures rallying so much is we are going to have a duh icive moment tonight. we will know. all the planning for tonight was oh, what if there are lawsuits going on for weeks and months and this will be worse than hanging chads. we will know who the president

of the united states will see and i think that's why you see futures rallying because we don't have the uncertainty. the last time trump won, the mexican peso, for example, got hammered because he was so tough on mexico during that election and then they renegotiated nafta and the mexican peso rallied for years and only fell recently because of their prediction. it's hard to make predictions with what happens. tariffs are a big question mark. we don't know how big they will be and what the impact will be but those will be the things businesses will be thinking about. i was interested in hearing sen senator's comments about the

warren wing of the party is not a success wing of the party, and everything hurting in party comes from the progressive wing of the party, and there was a massive spending where they were told not to do it. the anti-energy position was driven by progressives. these have all been rejected. this should be a lesson, and elizabeth warren, she has been able to put her people -- she always says personnel and process are policy, right? that's what has happened. we have to change that if the democratic party wants to win ae h elections. >> mexico, on one hand they could be a beneficial on higher tariffs against china, and at

the same time donald trump has said he will slap a gigantic tariff on any american car or any car manufactured, an ev manufactured in mexico and shipped to mexico and i think he's worried that china will start building their own cars and selling them in mexico and then to backdoor them into the united states. would this be a good thing for mexico because it takes -- mexico's threat is not america, it's china. >> i think last time i was in mexico, i said, wow, the northern part of the country is doing great and there's so much investment happening and they said it's all chinese. it's chinese coming here because they want to get around the tariffs imposed on them and that's a battle the u.s. will end up fighting with mexico to find out who is producing there. the other issue is last time around it was donald trump who didn't want to extend nafta, and

the new president and the previous president have made so many changes that go against the uscma, so the renegotiation beginning next year will be very difficult not because of us but because of them as well. >> let me point out the mexico issue with electric vehicles. there's a real-life experiment which is europe. europe already made this mistake and they have become dependent on chinese manufacturing of electric vehicles. >> yeah, and marc, we go back and -- tillman, we go back to that. tillman, we were in houston and looking at the energy infrastructure. the biden administration put a

pause on export terminals. this is going to change that. can you imagine on day one if donald trump is, indeed, elected president, he will -- i know this from a lot of people i talked to, reverse those. how big has the energy investment and infrastructure story been for not only texas, houston, where you live, tillman, but also in southern louisiana where you have extensive properties? tillman, are you still there? he is running a multimillion-dollar business, and we will try and get him back on the phone. marc short i will ask you the same question. there will be significant energy and kind of the world i cover, energy and infrastructure of energy policy changes enacted on day one should there be a change in the white house.

do you agree? >> i wish i was running a multi-billion dollar company, brian, but as much affection i have for the senator, if we had more democrats like her we could get something like that passed and that has been the challenge. whether or not the democrats look to be pro business in the coming years as a result of the election, we will come and see. to your question, brian, no doubt, day one of the trump administration, they will be more deregulatory when it comes to that industry. >> joining us now, also a cnbc contributor, david. i have been watching futures tonight up sharply as we continued to watch results roll in here. give us a sense of how you are seeing the set up for investors the rest of the week and the rest of the month and rest of

the year. >> before we do that, i want to say how much i enjoyed this conversation, and tillman running off as they were talking about hitting the ground running on the deregulation. companies are very, very excited about the idea that the strangle hold regulation that they've felt for the last three and change years is about to come off. we think that's the biggest change in a trump versus harris win. we've highlighted that to our clients at jefferies over and over again, that it wasn't trade, it wasn't immigration, it wasn't fiscal or monetary policy but really regulatory policy and i think that's the story. i am a little surprised it's not a bit higher. i think it feeds an idea i had coming in was a trump win was probably more priced by wall street than, say, the betting markets or other pollsters had thought. i think wall street was definitely leaning trump, at least in my casualty observation of the clients that i speak to

at jefferies. i think less than 2% in the s&p on a trump win is probably a little light. but it's all in the right direction. stronger dollar, stronger s&ps, slightly higher rates. and i guess the other thing is a lot of clients did push on this idea that rates would really move a lot higher under trump and we're not really seeing that. once we got news the senate was going red and sort of a full red i think people thought maybe rates weren't going to go up as much because maybe some fiscal parsimony comes in with a red sweep. >> so david, we are showing the russell 2000e mini futures, they're up 3 1/2%. i mean, that's a pretty big move for the small caps, david. i guess on this kind of -- this idea again trump has not been confirmed at anything but if he does win this america first idea. two questions on rates. yes, today's move not that great but we've already backed up,

what, .7 of a percent in the previous 30 days. so i wonder how much the market had anticipated this. number two, is jay powell the most nervous man in washington, d.c. right now? >> oh, number two definitely not. i think jay's just fine. he's got a year and change left on this watch. he's going to go down as the guy that slayed the great covid inflation. he's going to ride rates a little lower. he'll cut 25. he might have to fight with the trump administration for the next year a little bit if he doesn't go fast enough lower. but you know, he's done it before and he came out just fine. so i'm not worried about jay. i think he's going to go off and golf in south florida when he's all done with his term in early 2026 and i think go down as one of the greats in fed chair history. >> let me ask you a different question. again, assuming we have a trump victory, and he's about ready to address supporters at a campaign event, nothing has been called but we see the direction where everything is. does it change the direction of

interest rates given that, what, the debt maturity wall, what is it, 60% of u.s. debt is maturing in the next five years? these are scary, scary numbers, david. >> we definitely move the maturity structure of the debt shorter. i think under a trump administration the people that i think he's looking at for treasury will probably look to change that a little bit and that may weigh on long-term interest rates. we'll have to see. but i think there's a lot of good and positive stuff on why rates could come lower with deregulation really being the lead there. that's a classic positive supply shock. it's lower inflation with higher growth. it's going to be led as jay said earlier, i think jay answered your inflation question beautifully by just saying this is really about energy prices and you know, brian i know that's your wheelhouse. i think we've all got to think about what a world of $50 oil looks like. and it looks pretty good from an inflation standpoint. looks pretty good from an input to production costs going down standpoint. and that's going to be a big part of this trump plan assuming it goes as the markets are

predicting today. and i think that's going to open up a sort of -- an avenue for the fed to actually take rates lower even as growth is strong. >> and hopefully -- hopefully, david, we can get those productivity gains that we've had as well. if you look at u.s. productivity, we're up 20% when a comparable european is under 10. and that's the result of technology. if we can have that as well i think the upward pressure on rates can be mitigated but i turn it to david because he's the expert. >> i was the imf world bank meetings last week and there was a lot of discussion about how treasury was talking about the amount of issuance that they're going to have to start doing at the end of 2025. i mean, the planning calendar when you start to have this much debt it's like the way italy does it, right? you have to plan years in advance because you have to be ready, 30s, 5 cents. they're talking about what kind of products, are they going to bring out new kinds of products to try to get investors interested in all the -- >> michelle, i've got to jump in

because this is critical. critical breaking news. nbc news, that's nebraska. nbc news has confirmed that donald j. trump is the winner of pennsylvania. we've got nebraska on the board. they're going to switch it out. pennsylvania seen as really the prize. 19 electoral votes. donald trump the projected winner according to nbc news for pennsylvania. donald trump will be speaking in a couple of minutes in florida. we're going to obviously go to him when he does begin to speak. quickly, david, i want to go back to you. you mentioned $50 oil. and this is very important. a lot of people think that donald trump is, quote, good for the oil industry. i would argue he's probably good for the services companies like baker hughes, halliburton, the ones that help people drill, but if we drill baby drill and there's more supply than demand i think your point is very well taken about $50 or even lower

oil. >> 100%, brian. but i mean, we're talking about what's good for the american public. i know the oil companies are near and dear to many hearts of people who watch the shows here and trade the stocks. but this is something that will really change the balance for the american consumer and american business. and people like tillman who you had on there that has a pretty big energy bill with all the hotels and everything else that he's running. this is a big deal. it's a big story. and it really is as jay said earlier in one of the segments, this is the key to understanding donald trump's plan, is this is how you get lower inflation, lower unemployment and lower interest rates all at the same time and not have a sort of standard keynesian storyline that the only way to get inflation down is to kind of blow up the economy and raise the unemployment rate and weaken growth. we haven't seen that in this last nine quarters. i don't expect we're going to see that again in the next nine quarters ahead. and i think that can all come with lower energy prices. that is the real flank in the

storyline for this administration. and it really to me looks like the return to the 2019 story you guys were playing with in an early segment is the one you want to think about. a low unemployment rate of 3 1/2% to 4%. inflation back to the 2% target. a balance sheet at the fed that is right around 20% of gdp which is where we started at because gdp's been so strong. the only thing that stands out is we had 1 3/4% interest rates back then and now we have 4 3/4 he% interest rates. i think interest rates are coming down they could be coming down pretty hard. >> i do want to say this about oil production. we stabilized the price around $70 and it made the united states the top producer in the world. there's a price point at which production in this country will decrease. >> where is that price point? >> i think it's 40. i think 40 will slow down anything -- that 40 to 50 range. because you saw it and you saw

donald trump basically begging the saudis back when oil prices were tanking to please, please help us stabilize oil prices, increase oil prices so we could see some better profit margins in the oil field. i will say, i mean, are they too high? i think we can argue that. but understand that that price point there may not be economical for people to invest in shale. >> michelle crusoe cabrera we are waiting on donald trump. you know the game i may need to jump in on you. here's another angle. drill baby drill more production maybe prices go down. but -- and you've been there, by the way. you're one of the few western journalists who's been there. donald trump will probably actually enforce o'the existing sanctions on iran. will he not? where he destroyed their foreign currency reserves and their oil exports, which have now quadrupled in the last three years. >> iran is absolutely going to be very unhappy with the outcome of this election because he's

going to be very, very tough on them. i'd say there's two oil-producing countries in the world we can think about right now. iran, number one. but also what's going to happen with venezuela. i mean, i've seen data which shows that there are a million venezuelans who want to leave and come to the united states. it's going to behoove the next president of this country to figure out how to stabilize venezuela, one, so we don't have a continuing problem at the border. but two, so they too can start producing oil that will reduce the number of people that want to come to the united states and help reduce the amount of supply that's in the world. venezuela should be producing 6 million barrels of oil a day at this point but they're only doing a couple hundred thousand. it's ridiculous. it's a very bad situation. >> michelle, i just want to point out right now we've seen the futures jump even higher now. the dow futures are up over 750 points. we're taking a live look right now at west palm beach, florida where we are expecting former president donald trump, who has just been projected as the

winner of pennsylvania, to be speaking in florida shortly. and there you were seeing the reaction. david, the markets have been speaking very clearly today about what they thought was going to happen and the optimism with which they see the results. >> absolutely. and i think it's been pretty orderly. i really do. i think it was orderly. it was grinding at first as the data came in. and i think we just -- we saw a very -- i can't think of a better word. orderly movement higher in stocks, lower in bond prices. and stronger in the dollar. i think the dollar move was probably the biggest from a standard deviation standpoint outside of its normal ranges. that's come back a little bit. stocks kind of really in the range. i can't imagine if you own volatility on stocks you made a lot of money owning one-day straddles on the s&p with just a 2% or 2 and change percent move. again, i think these moves are

all orderly. they're not out of the ordinary. this isn't like 2016 when we had to limit down or a limit up type story if it was going the other way. this feels pretty good for a market that i do believe was leaning toward pricing trump much more than many had thought. i think that was more or less what was in the market. i wanted to just touch one thing on what jay said about productivity. jay, and i think you're right. this is a huge, huge storyline in the next four years and we were getting a long way down the road to seeing it come back in 2017, 18 and 19 under trump one. deregulation is what feeds productivity. if you take away that red tape, if you get those three-letter acronyms off people's backs that tillman was talking about including the faa, which he mentioned, then you really free up time so that we can be more productive in the private sector. this is a huge, huge story.

it is the biggest story for us in markets in this election. dereg is what's going to drive us. i know we're going to spend time on fiscal policy and talk about debt walls and maturity. i know we're going to talk about jay and the fed and monetary policy and some people are going to get worried about immigration policy if he starts doing deportations and labor costs. but the big, big story. the big, big positive story is dereg. and i think the center of that will be -- >> i've heard that from multiple ceos trying to get deals done or looking at deals that they would like to do and just hands off because they've seen what has happened with their colleagues who tried to do it. and to your point earlier, you know, if you have the financing lined up and the agencies just don't come through with the license you need in order to get the deal done, the financing dies. >> let's be clear. with today's technology you ought to be able to review deals, you ought to be able to do your regulatory job faster

than you used to. >> run it through chatgpt. >> we're waiting on donald trump to speak. nothing has been called yet from the nbc news desk. i want to make that extremely clear. marc short, though, listen, next year we have the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts and jobs act. some people call them the trump tax cuts. i call them the blue state payback because if you live in new jersey and you don't have higher deductions that salt deduction cap was actually a stealth tax hike. that aside, this expires at the end of next year. it was done that way because they did it under budget reconciliation. they had to do it. he wants to keep it. kamala harris had said she wants to carve it out for 400,000 and above. that's not possible because it's a law. what happens to the tax cuts and jobs act and maybe that salt deduction cap asking for a friend. >> brian, my best guess here is that it gets extended more or less as it is.

i think there will be plans from crapo and the senate and jason smith in the house for how they want to tinker with it and change it. jason smith has said he wants the deduction on salt to raise significantly. i don't think there's going to be votes to do that. i think it's going to be basically best case scenario is we extend it which obviously i think was a great piece of legislation. so i'm happy with extending it. if i can go back for one second to something else you said, and i think america would be greatly served be if jay clayton was our treasury secretary, but i do not necessarily agree with jay's assessment with the fed. i do think there will be a lot more volatility there. i was in the oval office when trump would yell at steve mnuchin for recommending jay powell. i was there when he dressed down jay powell. i think he's not going to have a patient approach to jay powell independence. i think he's going to have a lot more demands that interest rates come down faster. so i'm not so sure that that relationship will lack volatility. i think there will be a lot more volatility there than is being

estimated right now. >> that's interesting. trump has in fact even said that he wants to be the head of the fed. >> so can i just mention something? let's assume that the democrats take the house. okay, so we're assuming a sweep -- >> it flips. >> that the democrats now we have the speaker in the house. that means you have to negotiate with democrats the tax package. and so if it expires you're going to see the salt deduction go back to where it was. you're going to see the standard deductions go back down. you're going to see more people filing on schedule a. and you're going to have a real conversation. so there's leverage for the democrats. trump has said, or at least his running mate has said we want to expand the child tax credit. so has the democrats. this is a long goal of the democrats. so i don't think -- where i get what marc's saying, i think that if the democrats take the house there is going to be a negotiation on what that tax

package looks like. but i think they will basically extend a lot of the provisions that were favorable to the middle class. >> i think the challenge of that, senator, is you look at the most recent jobs report and if you have more like that then you know the part that's going to be raised is individual rates. and i'm not sure the democrats want to be the ones raising individual rates next year heading into a midterm election. but if you do, you know, go for it. i think the republicans will be even more successful -- >> i don't disagree with you. i'm just saying it's not going to be easy. there's going to be a negotiation. >> as we're watching the video of the podium being prepared for donald trump i just want to say where we are in terms of the nbc news decision desk. right now it appears that kamala harris has 194 electoral votes. donald trump with 266. crucially, pennsylvania nbc projects he will be the winner in pennsylvania and in georgia

as well. michigan, wisconsin, minnesota still too close to call. nevada and arizona still too close to call at this point. and i'm seeing alaska still -- >> we don't know, marc short, how this is going to go, like i said, but it's clearly in one direction we in the media kept saying this is going to be super close, super close because the polls were super close. i never felt that way going out and speaking to people. but that aside it looks like, again, assuming no major change, it's not going to be that historically close of an election. the senate looks like it's going to go republican. there you go, 51, it has. if you had to switch teams, where did the democrats go wrong? what happened? because 2022 was very strong for them in the midterms, particularly on the abortion issue. >> because president biden moved too far to the left. he ran as a centrist. he said he was going to be a centrist. and then he listened to the progressives when he got into

office. let's go back to it. the huge spending package that led to the painful inflation for which democrats are being punished right now. changing tack on the border which led to the chaos on the border that upset so many people. and then being so anti-energy was another thing. we add all those together and i think that's where democrats went wrong. >> i would agree with that. i think the reality is that donald trump is unique in that he can appeal to minority populations. i think that's the biggest shift here. i think that there's still i think some erosion in support in suburban america but he's more than compensated that by winning over much larger numbers of latino votes and african american votes. and so i think that's the difference in 2022. the republicans on the ballot were not able to get that minority support the way that he is. >> and we're talking about -- heidi was talking about, marc was talking about getting things through congress, getting things through the senate. there's still an open senate race in pennsylvania that has not been called.

there's a big difference between 52 and 53 in the senate. >> huge. huge difference. >> it's not just one. >> it's not just one. it's like 50% better. >> because we've seen what's happened that some people have come and gone. i want to say where we are. again, waiting for donald trump. guys, can we bring up the dow futures? by the way, we're live here on cnbc. we've got the best team in the business. we're doing this from a data, analysis, fact-based, all done with just what we're seeing in the markets. let the markets tell the story. contessa, dare i say this is random but interesting. this would be the biggest point gain for dow futures according to our amazing data team here since december 13th, 2022, when they gained 967 points. if we keep going up, we could have the biggest futures gain in what could be a very big market and money day. look at the small cap stocks

too. iwms, an etf. there's a russell 2000, an e-mini, a futures contract that represents -- you say it and they bring it up on the screen. if you're on the radio maybe driving around in guam late afternoon the russell 2000e-minis are up 4.3%. i am not smart enough to know where that stands in historical record of russell e-mini gains but my guess is it's pretty darn high. >> the russell 2000 futures are seeing their highest level since november 22nd, 2021. so that again, i had a little help -- >> you just trumped me. >> i'm very curious about the dollar. donald trump does not like a strong dollar. if you've read some of his interviews with other financial publications and outlets, he sounds very, very much like someone who would like to weaken the dollar. and i'm very curious as to what actually happens there. there are some members that surround him that actually want to tax foreign direct investment

to try to dampen the strength of the dollar so that way we'll have stronger exports. i'm very curious to see what happens there. >> and contessa, you're so right, and one of the things you were talking about with david zervos was what actually happens to longer-term rates. higher longer-term rates generally gives you a stronger dollar at least from a flow point. so if those rates can come down we don't have a stronger dollar. >> and marc short, are you still there, marc? correct? >> yes. >> gary cohn made this point. you were on set as well. top of the 7:00 eastern time coverage. and i thought it was just so smart because cohn worked in the white house. and you guys know, senator, you know this as well. any of you d.c. types know this. >> do i have to admit -- >> yes, you do. because this is not a partisan -- >> he says you're smart. >> he said the same thing. >> we like each other. >> comment please on this. you've run and won campaigns, senator hieitkamp. what politicians say in their campaigns is not always what

they're able to actually accomplish while they're in office. breaking news, right, marc short? that donald j. trump, assuming he wins, we don't know, if he does win, puts together a cabinet, even with a republican senate, maybe a blue -- a democratic-controlled house, the stuff he says is not necessarily what he's going to be able to do. that's just politics. i don't care if your name is trump, george washington or whomever, correct? >> absolutely. and it's not just based upon what the politics are. i think he himself has an amazing ability to be flexible on issues and change positions quickly. so absolutely, not everything that's promised. but again, as we've said, it's for the benefit of the economy. he has been clear in stating he wants to extend the tax relief. he has been clear about advancing a deregulatory agenda. those things the market can be assured of. >> i think that's right. but let's kind of turn the page on what we're talking about, the culture. so is he going to pardon all the january 6 defendants?

is he going to start deportations? what is he going to do that will be disruptive in terms of unifying the country? or is he going to immediately go to an economic agenda that seems to be fairly popular with people? or will these additional issues sidetrack him? and that's the other thing you need to be worried about. you talk about what's the priority. he is somebody who is not focused on priorities, it's just kind of the world of what's happening today. right? and so we'll wait and see, but i think that the idea about grievance, the idea of curtailing the civil service sector -- >> petty revenge. right? >> yeah. if he puts all of that aside and focuses -- >> can he? do you think he will? >> no. i don't. we'll see. let's take a look at his speech. i think that will be a good indication of which direction he's going.

i thought that his convention speech was going to be an opportunity to turn the page, say i'm a changed man. about ten minutes into it he turned the page but it wasn't i'm a changed man. it went into all the grievance discussion. once again. >> you know, it's interesting, as we've been watching the returns roll in we're also monitoring how business is reacting. you're seeing tesla jumping in the overnight trading. bitcoin hit a new record, more than 75,000. michelle was mentioning the dollar strength. especially it's been noticeable. the peso and chinese currency falling. and overseas markets, the asian markets are now open. we've seen some strength there but not hong kong. michelle, you want to weigh in? >> i haven't seen the hong kong markets, the overseas markets. i think you'll see a general rally because we're not going to have uncertainty. i don't know how china will trade. that's a very closed market.

>> michelle? >> go ahead. >> sorry to jump in but as promised the former president, donald j. trump, is making his way out to the podium. let's listen in. ♪ where at least i know i'm free ♪ ♪ and i won't forget the men who died and gave that right to me ♪ ♪ and i gladly stand up next to you ♪ ♪ and defend her still today ♪ ♪ 'cause there ain't no doubt i love this land ♪ ♪ god bless the usa ♪ ♪ ♪ from the lakes in minnesota ♪ ♪ to the hills of tennessee ♪ ♪ across the plains of texas ♪

♪ from sea to shining sea ♪ ♪ detroit down to houston ♪ ♪ and new york to l.a. ♪ ♪ where there's pride in every american heart ♪ ♪ and it's time we stand and say ♪ ♪ that i'm proud to be an american ♪ ♪ where at least i know i'm free ♪ ♪ and i won't forget the men who died ♪ ♪ who gave that right to me ♪ ♪ and i gladly stand up next to you ♪ ♪ and defend her still today ♪ ♪ 'cause there ain't no doubt i love this land ♪ ♪ god bless the usa ♪ ♪ and i'm proud to be an american ♪ ♪ where at least i know i'm

free ♪ ♪ and i won't forget the men who died who gave that right to me ♪ ♪ and i gladly stand up ♪ ♪ next to you ♪ ♪ and defend her still today ♪ ♪ 'cause there ain't no doubt i love this land ♪ ♪ god bless the usa ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much. wow. [ crowd chanting "usa" ] well, i want to thank you all very much. this is great. these are our friends. we have thousands of friends in this incredible movement. this was a movement like nobody's ever seen before.

frankly, this was i believe the greatest political movement of all time. there's never been anything like this in this country and maybe beyond. and now it's going to reach a new level of importance because we're going to help our country heal. we're going to help our country heal. we have a country that needs help. and it needs help very badly. we're going to fix our borders. we're going to fix everything about our country. we made history for a reason tonight. and the reason is going to be just that. we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. and it's now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political -- look what happened. is this crazy?

but it's a political victory that our country has never seen before. nothing like this. i want to thank the american people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president. and every citizen, i will fight for you, for your family and your future. every single day i will be fighting for you with every breath in my body. i will not rest until we have delivered the strong safe and prosperous america that our children deserve and that you deserve. this will truly be the golden age of america. that's what we have tonight. this is a magnificent victory for the american people that will allow us to make america

great again. oh, we're going to do it. and in addition to having won the battleground states of north carolina -- i love these places. georgia and pennsylvania and wisconsin. we are now winning in michigan, arizona, nevada and alaska, which would result in us carrying at least 315 electoral votes. but it's much easier doing what the networks did or whoever called it because there was no other path. there was no other path to victory. we also have won the popular vote. that was great.

[ crowd chanting "usa" ] thank you very much. winning the popular vote was very nice. very nice, i will tell you. a great feeling of love. we have a great feeling of love in this very large room. with unbelievable people standing by my side. these people have been incredible. they've made the journey with me. we're going to make you very happy. we're going to make you very proud of your vote. i hope you're going to be looking back someday and say that was one of the truly important moments of my life when i voted for this group of people beyond the president, this group of great people. america has given us an unprecedented and powerful

mandate. we have taken back control of the senate. wow. that's good. and the senate races in montana, nevada, texas, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, the great commonwealth of pennsylvania were all won by the maga movement. they helped so much. and in those cases every one of them we worked with the senators. they were tough races. and i mean the number of victories in the senate was absolutely incredible. we did telerallies. we did telerallies with each one of them. sometimes we did two or three for -- and it was amazing to look at all of those victories. nobody expected that. nobody. so i just wanted to thank you very much for that. and we have -- you have some

great senators and some great new senators. and it also looks like we'll be keeping control of the house of representatives. and i want to thank mike johnson. i think he's doing a terrific job. terrific job. i want to also thank my beautiful wife, melania, first lady. who has the number one best-selling book in the country. can you believe that? she's done a great job. works very hard. works very hard. to help people. so i just want to thank her. but i want to thank my whole

family. my amazing children. and they are amazing children. and we all think our children are amazing. everybody here thinks their children are amazing. but that's a good thing when you think they are. but don, eric, ivanka, tiffany, baron, laura, jared, kimberly, michael, thank you all. my father-in-law viktor's tremendous. and we miss very much melania's mother, amalia. we miss amalia, don't we, huh? she would be very happy right now standing on this stage. she'd be so proud. she was a great woman, that one. beautiful inside and out. she was a great woman. i want to be the first to congratulate our great -- now i can say vice president-elect of the united states, j.d. vance.

and his absolutely remarkable and beautiful wife, usha vance. and he's a feisty guy, isn't he? you know, i've said go into the enemy camp. and you know the enemy camp is certain networks. a lot of people they're like sir, do i have to do that? he just goes okay. which one? cnn, msdnc. he'll say -- all right, thank you very much. he actually looks -- the only guy i've ever seen, he really looks forward to it. then he just goes and absolutely obliterates them. say a couple of words.

[ crowd chanting "j.d." ] >> well, mr. president, i appreciate you allowing me to join you on this incredible journey. i thank you for the trust that you placed in me. and i think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the united states of america. and under president trump's leadership we're never going to stop fighting for you, for your dreams, for the future of your children and after the greatest political comeback in american history we're going to lead the greatest economic comeback in american history under donald trump's leadership.

>> thank you very much. he's turned out to be a good choice. i took a little heat at the beginning. but he was -- i knew the brain was a good one. about as good as it gets. and we love the family and we're going to have a great four years and we're going to turn our country around, make it something very special. it lost that little -- that little thing called special. we have to make it -- we're going to make this so great. it's the greatest country and potentially the greatest country in the world by far. right now we're just going to work very hard to get all of that back. we're going to make it the best it's ever been. we can do that. we just -- if we had to wait longer i don't know. it was going bad and it was going bad fast. we're going to have to seal up those borders and we're going to have to let people come into our

country -- we want people to come back in. but we have to -- we have to let them come back in but they have to come in legally. they have to come in legally. let me also express my tremendous appreciation for susie and chris. the job you did. susie. come, susie. come here. come here, susie. chris. come here, chris. susie likes to stay sort of in the back. let me tell you. the ice maiden. we call her the ice maiden. chris. come here, chris. susie likes to stay in the background. she's not in the background. come here. say something. >> you want me to say something? this was unexpected. but i just want to thank obviously president trump for this journey. it was a great one. and he's a hell of a candidate. he's going to have a hell of a great 47th president. and this team that we had, the

best team. and of course even my boss, susie wiles, the best. thank you. >> thank you. and thank you, susie. look at this. she's shy. i've never seen her be shy before. susie. oh, they're great. everybody up here is great. everybody up here is very special. but the trump -- who did you say? oh, let me tell you. we have a new star. a star is born. elon. no, he is. no, he's an amazing guy. we were sitting together tonight. you know, he spent two weeks in philadelphia and different parts of pennsylvania campaigning. you know, he sent the rocket up two weeks ago, and i saw that rocket and i saw it coming down and i saw it. it was -- when it left it was beautiful, shiny, white.

when it came down, it didn't look so pretty. it was going 10,000 miles an hour and it was burning like hell. i said what happened to your paint job? he said we've never made a paint that could withstand that kind of heat. but i saw it come down and turn around, and it was -- you know, it's like 22 stories tall, by the way. it looks a little smaller than that, but it's big. and it came down and down and you saw all that fire burning. and elon can do this. it must be elon -- and i told the story last night. i had a man on the phone. i had the screen muted. no sound. i was talking to a very important man. happens to be here tonight. very important guy. one of the most important people in i would say the country, actually. but you know, i was president and now it looks like i was going to be maybe president again. so i figured i could ask him to hold. so i asked him to hold.

especially because you're going to be president again, they hold. so i took the phone down and i'm looking at the screen, i'm seeing this crazy thing that's going around and coming down. it looks like it's going to crash into the gantry. and i said oh, no. i said do me a favor, do you mind holding for a couple -- i want to see this. i thought it was a space-age movie or something. i put the phone down. bad part, i didn't pick it up for 45 minutes, and he was holding. but this spaceship came down, and i saw those ens firing and it looked like it was over, it was going to smash, and then i saw the fire pour out from the left side and it put it straight and it came down so gently and then it wrapped those arms around it. and it held it. and just like you hold your baby at night, your little baby. and it was a beautiful thing to see. and i called elon. i said elon, was that you? he said yes, it was. i said, who else can do that? can russia do it? no. can china do it?

no. can the united states do it other than you? no. nobody can do that. i said that's why i love you, elon. that's great. and you know when we had the tragic hurricane helene and it hit -- in particular hit north carolina. they were really devastated. the water. this was a big water -- as big as we've ever seen. water hurricane. it built lakes out of nothing. fields became lakes. and the danger was unbelievable. and the people from north carolina came to me and they said, would it be possible, at all possible for you to speak to elon musk? we need starlink. i said what's starlink? it's a form of communication. so i called elon. and i'll tell you what, he had -- and it was very dangerous. people were dying. they had no communication. all the wires were down. i called elon musk. i said elon, you have something called starlink, is that right? yes, i do. what the hell is it? he said it's a communication system that's very good.

i said elon, they need it really, really badly in north carolina. can you get it? he had that there so fast it was incredible. so -- and it was great. it saved a lot of lives. he saved a lot of lives. but he's a character. he's a special guy. he's a super genius. we have to protect our geniuses. we don't have that many of them. we have to protect our super geniuses. i want to thank -- you know, we have up here today the u.s. open champion. he's fantastic. hits the ball longer than me. just a little bit. bryson dechambeau is up here someplace. what happened to bryson -- where is he? bryson. oh. he's hitting balls. oh, he's on the way. he's hitting balls. bryson. oh, look at him.

he's got a great career going. great u.s. open, bryson. that's a fantastic job. and we also have a man dana white, who has done something -- he's a tough guy. [ crowd chanting "dana" ] so dana started ufc and came to me, do you mind if i use your -- nobody wanted to give him arenas because they said it's a rough sport, a little rough. and i helped him out a little bit. and i went and i said this is the roughest sport i've ever seen but i began to like it and he loved it. nobody's done a better job in sports. and you know, he's a very motivational kind of guy, what he does. he gets these fighters and they really go at it and it's become one of the most successful

sports enterprises anywhere at any time. doing so well. i'd like to ask dana just to say a couple of words because people love to hear from him. >> nobody deserves this more than him, and nobody deserves this more than his family does. this is what happens when the machine comes after you. what you've seen over the last several years, this is what it looks like. couldn't stop him. he keeps going forward. he doesn't quit. he's the most resilient, hard-working man i've ever met in my life. his family are incredible people. this is karma, ladies and gentlemen. he deserves this. they deserve it as a family. i want to thank some people real quick. i want to thank the melk boys, aidan ross. theo vaughn, bossing with the boys. and last but not least the mighty and powerful joe rogan.

and thank you, america. thank you. have a good night. >> that is a piece of work. no, he's an amazing -- he's really an amazing guy. but most of all i want to thank the millions of hard-working americans across the nation who have always been the heart and soul of this really great movement. we've been through so much together, and today you showed up in record numbers to deliver a victory. like really probably like no other. this was something special. and we're going to pay you back. we're going to do the best job. we're going to turn it around. it's got to be turned around. it's got to be turned around fast. and we're going to turn it around. we're going to do it in every way. so many ways. but we're going to do it in every way. this will forever be remembered as the day the american people regained control of their

country. so i just want to say that on behalf of this great group of people, these are hard-working people, these are fantastic people, and we could add a few names like robert f. kennedy jr. he came in. and he's going to help make america healthy again. [ crowd chanting "bobby" ] he's a great guy. and he really means it. he wants to do some things and we're going to let him go to it. i just said but bobby, leave the oil to me. we have more liquid gold, oil and gas, we have more liquid gold than any country in the world, more than saudi arabia. we have more than russia. bobby, stay away from the liquid gold. other than that go have a good

time, bobby. we're going to be paying down debt. we're going to be reducing taxes. we can do things that nobody else can do. nobody else is going to be able to do it. china doesn't have what we have. nobody has what we have. but we have the greatest people also. maybe that's the most important thing. this campaign -- this campaign has been so historic in so many ways. we've built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition. they've never seen anything like it in all of american history, young and old, men and women, rural and urban. and we had them all helping us tonight when you think -- i mean, i was looking at it. i was watching it. they had some great analysis of the people that voted for us. nobody's ever seen anything like that. it came from -- they came from all corners. union, non-union, african american, hispanic american, asian american, arab american, muslim american.

we had everybody. and it was beautiful. it was a historic re-alignment. uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense. you know, we're the party of common sense. we want to have borders. we want to have security. we want to have things be good, safe. we want great education. we want a strong and powerful military. and ideally we don't have to use it. you know, we had no wars. four years we had no wars except we defeated isis. we defeated isis in record time. but we had no wars. they said he will start a war. i'm not going to start a war. i'm going to stop wars. but this is also a massive victory for democracy and for freedom. together we're going to unlock america's glorious destiny. we're going to achieve the most incredible future for our people. yesterday as i stood at my last stop on the campaign trail --

i'll never be doing a rally again. can you believe it? i think we've done 900 rallies approximately. can you imagine? 900. 901. something -- a lot of rallies. and it was sad. everybody was sad. many people. i said this is our last rally. but now we're going on to something that's far more important because the rallies were used for us to be put in this position where we can really help our country. that's what we're going to do. we're going to make our country better than it ever has been. and i said that many people have told me that god spared my life for a reason. and that reason was to save our country and to restore america to greatness. and now we are going to fulfill that mission together. we're going to fulfill that

mission. the task before us will not be easy, but i will bring every ounce of energy, spirit and fight that i have in my soul to the job that you've entrusted to me. this is a great job. there's no job like this. this is the most important job in the world. just as i did in my first term, we had a great first term, a great, great first term. i will govern by a simple motto. promises made, promises kept. we're going to keep our promises. nothing will stop me from keeping my word to you, the people. we will make america safe, strong, prosperous, powerful and free again. and i'm asking every citizen, all across our land, to join me in this noble and righteous endeavor. that's what it is. it's time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us. it's time to unite.

and we're going to try, we're going to try, we have to try and it's going to happen. success will bring us together. i've seen that. i've seen that. i saw that in the first term. when we became more and more successful, people started coming together. success is going to bring us together and we are going to start by all putting america first. we have to put our country first for at least a period of time. we have to fix it. because together we can truly make america great again for all americans. so i want to just tell you what a great honor this is. i want to thank you. i will not let you down. america's future will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than it has ever been before. god bless you and god bless america. thank you very much. thank you.

thank you very much. ♪ >> okay, there you're hearing donald trump just finishing up in west palm beach, florida. a night when he was claiming his victory. and there you're seeing that the crowd loved it. but i should say that nbc news has not projected a win for donald trump right now. nbc news decision desk has 204 electoral votes for kamala harris and 266 for donald trump. with me here on the set for your vote your money is michelle caruso-cabrera, cnbc contributor and of course our former colleague, former senator heidi heitkamp also a cnbc contributor. and jay clayton, who is a former s.e.c. chair and a cnbc contributor. david zervos also is with us, with jefferies. let's get a start first, jay. give me a sense of i should just say it was remarkable listening to donald trump claiming victory, saying it was the greatest political movement of

all time, and then promising to help the country heal, saying he's united with all americans, saying that he would see success bringing people together, that he's going to put the divisions of the past four years behind him. he really notably set aside his vehemence and some of his grievances that we've heard over and over again on the campaign trail against political opponents, against those who had served with him under his former administration, and heard him talking about what he wants to do. right away it was fix the borders. he talked about taking back control of the senate and the things that he was going to be able to do there. he also really praised elon musk. said a new star is born and said that he spent some time campaigning with elon musk. there you're seeing minnesota now as nbc projects kamala harris as the winner in minnesota. this is one of the states here

in the midwest. wisconsin and michigan have not been called for kamala harris. those were considered part of that blue wall that she needed in order to win. we're waiting on those. all right. so jay, let me get back to you now. donald trump really seemed to turn a page in his playbook. >> well, let me respond to two things that you said. the first is this is his last election. he's not going to be campaigning again. we heard him be a little bit nostalgic about his last rally and the fact that -- so he is going to move forward and he's going to be concerned about his legacy and whether he's delivering. elon musk. what do we know about elon musk? no matter what you're going to say about him, he delivers. i mean, he has restored the u.s. space program. >> also -- i'm sorry to interrupt. new jersey as well. nbc now is projecting that kamala harris has won new jersey's 14 electoral votes. it was very close. go ahead, jay.

>> so what does donald trump want to do? he does want to deliver on those things because this is his last hurrah. he's not running for president again. he's not going to run for another office. and elon musk is a can-do person. that's a nice message to start this evening. >> senator heitkamp, when we're looking at the way this is shaking o'out across the naegs, not only do you have donald trump projecting victory even though nbc news has not called that yet and we're starting to see states now coming in with electoral votes for kamala harris, but you are seeing that the senate, nbc has projected the senate control now goes to republicans. how do democrats continue to advance their particular goals and their missions and at the same time figure out how do they do better the next time? >> i think that they come to him and say okay, you won, let's talk about what you want to do with border security but let's talk about immigration reform. i mean, i sat at a table, a

lunch table, with donald trump and we aall got a chance to say what we wanted to do, and joe manchin said, you know, we passed an immigration reform bill that basically almost got 70 votes in the senate, and the president at the time, trump, said i want to see it. i remember, you know, grassley picks up his head and says oh, that's amnesty. and that kind of ended the discussion. but i think that as somebody who really understands that you can't deport -- i mean, i hope he understands. you can't deport the number of people. we've got to get people to work. the demographics in our country are not working for us. and that this is a real opportunity i think, if i were in the senate i'd say okay, you want to get all these things done, permitting reform, you want to get regulatory reform done, how about we also talk about what's on our agenda and cut a deal. and we can't have complained as democrats about the last four

years of republican obstruction and then lead with obstruction. i mean, i just don't think that that's the mood of the country. if the democrats are going to turn the page, they need to be principled in what they're going to oppose, not just oppose to oppose the president, which it looks like it's going to be donald trump. but they also need to come with their agenda. and so i think that's the best way to move forward. >> i want to look at some of the market reaction that we've seen as the results have been coming in tonight. dow futures have crossed 850 at one point. coming back down a little bit but still above 800. the s&p as well up a percent and a half on the futures. the nasdaq futures up a percent and a half. michelle, it looks like there's a lot of optimism about what new leadership could mean. but jay was making the point earlier about what certainty means. >> for sure. remember, the planning for this night, if we can show people the wires, was we had assumed we would not know the answer tonight. we had assumed we might not know

the answer for a week. it could be a month. what if there were lawsuits, right? there was a lot of planning out there about how long this could go on. well, lo and beloeld, it looks like we may have a decisive outcome tonight. >> and again, we still have too close to call states. there is a path to victory for kamala harris should she win those states, although we're looking at the returns and as they start to get 50, 60, 70% of the returns come in, that looks more difficult. but again, nbc news right now has not projected donald trump as the victor, though he has proclaimed it himself. >> that's true. and clearly i think the market is reacting and not waiting for an absolute declaration by any of the networks. that's what you're seeing priced in. i think one, the certainty of the outcome. i think it's also that he wants to do more deregulation. he doesn't want to raise taxes. he wants to cut taxes. those are all very good things for the markets. i think the things that are uncertain is what is trade

policy really going to look like. is he talking about the levels of tariffs he's been talking about as a negotiation tactic or is that something that he really believes in? >> and this brings up something we haven't talked about yet. who's governing the country until january 21st? right now we know we have joe t january 21st. right now, we have joe biden as president. but we also know joe biden was not robust enough to run for a second term. we have kamala harris who is defeated tonight. who is running the country and setting policy? because the markets are already assuming we have a trump presidency. what do we have between now and then? it's a very interesting question, i mean, heidi -- >> i think you have a rush to confirm a lot of judges is what you have. because obviously, there's judges in the pipeline. and i think that you're going to see the must-do kinds of things. does it mean we get a farm bill? does it mean we get -- you know, we only did an extension through

december. what does that mean? especially if the house goes democratic, then there's also that leverage. like what more can you do. so, i think it's going to be a period of negotiation. i think president biden is more than able to sit at a negotiation table and kind of finish it out. >> to michelle's point, when does trade policy start? >> trade policy starts when trump becomes president, i think. michelle, you made so much great points about the usmc. i forgot about the renegotiation, what trump didn't like about nafta was the lack of renegotiation. this was set, what, five years? >> yeah, every five years. >> and that's a big deal. >> given what's happened in new mexico. three quarters of the country said they didn't like the way america was heading. >> yeah. >> and one of the things that's been notable is the failure of the vice president to win the hearts and minds of minorities, men. and young people.

let's bring in kcyrus beshlov. there were a lot of ballots that had been tossed in nevada because signatures were not matching up with i.d.s. well, it was pointed out that a lot of young people don't really have signatures. they have scribbles now. cyrus, when you're looking at the way this election is playing out for young voters, what stands out in your mind about the effect that they had, who they were supporting, and the way things may change in the future to accommodate young voters? >> yeah. no, that's -- it's my job to survey young people, that's literally all i do. i would love to sit here and say that young people were kingmaker, that they really help helped shape this election. i don't think we can say that, in 2016, the percentage of young

people, 18 through 29 that voted is 39%. in 2020, the percentage that voted was 50%, and people were popping champagne about that. then we realized that was 16% lower than the rest of the american public. 2024, i think we're going to see a turnout somewhere in between 2016 and 2020. and i know democrats -- >> why -- why do you think that young voters are not that interested? >> that's a great question. the biggest thing that we saw in the polling that was different from what we saw playing out more in the news cycle was that, i think, a lot of the conventional wisdom, a lot of smart people thought that in order to get young people on board, the discussion had to be led by things like the middle east conflict, gaza. in our polling we found that -- you're going to find this to be a shock -- the number one issue to young people that's going to determine their vote, that probably did determine their vote tonight is the economy.

and so, what we're seeing so far in the exit polls is that president biden in 2020, he won young people by 24 points. what we're seeing so far is that it looks like kamala harris did carry young people, but more like 10, 12 points. >> when you say young people care about the economy, what is it that they care about? do they care about -- i mean, they saw a lot of student loan forgiveness under the biden administration. wages went up under the biden administration. inflation went up under the biden administration. it started under the trump administration but continued. talk a little bit about the actual issues that young voters are thinking about when they're thinking about their pocketbooks. because this is going to matter to businesses across america, what's important to young voters when it comes s to elections matters to their bosses too. >> absolutely.

when i think two of the matters that are the big jewels that president biden and kamala harris like to point to is the unemployment rate. the young people, aren't they making enough to get by. in surveys with cnbc which we were lucky to do, we found that young people for the most part either live paycheck to paycheck or something close to it. if that's the case, i don't care if you have a job, you have to feel good about what that job is getting you. and the second thing is the stock market. stock markets have been crashing records, but if you're living paycheck to paycheck, you're very likely -- >> right. this is a great point. this is something that a lot of the macro data really didn't pick up on. there's big segments in america that don't get ina home, still have to pay for college, and have no exposure to assets. this economy has served those people very, very poorly.

homes are less affordable, costs are more and you didn't get any benefits from the stock. >> and diana pieces all day long did you see her pieces about the real estate market, how four years ago, it was easier to buy or roent. and now it's impossible to buy. the one people, they're terrified they're not able to buy a house. >> i said and tweeted out, again, just my opinion, what i feel when i talk to people, there's two people, it's not red/blue. there's asset owners, jay, if you own an asset, own a house, business, things are good for you. things are good for you. record highs. we talk about that every day on cnbc but if you're an asset renter, you rent a home, things are harder. cyrus, i'll ask a question and kind of put you on the spot here, the biden administration

was very active in trying to cancel student loan debt. they got a little, they got a lot, something they couldn't do, and overall, it was an aggressive play. to be fair, student loan debt is actually held by people my age, not people your age. but it'san urgent issue with the young voter. why do you think this didn't seem to resonate more? >> there's a question how much you can actually do in terms of student loan debt, not to say, not to minimize that makes a difference in people's lives, but some of the differences we're talking about wage, wage growth and underemployment, it's great that student loans are getting pushed off the table somewhat or even all the way. but when you look at the overall picture, they can't participate in the economy. and last thing i should, in terms of the student loans, we talked about connecting that type of benefit to the person

who actually provided it. trump has done a heck of a job in terms of putting his names on checks. i don't know if that was necessarily the case for the biden administration. >> cyrus, thank you for joining us and giving your perspective from the young voters, appreciate that. it's 3:00 a.m. on the east coast. it is whatever time in hawaii. we're live here at cnbc hq. much more coverage of election night in america. stock futures, they are absolutely ripping. and we're glad you're with us. we're back right after this.

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we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. and it is now clear that we have achieved the most incredible political -- hey, look what

happened, is this crazy? >> donald trump just donald trump just moments ago in west palm beach, florida, where he gave a victory speech. although nbc news has not called a visibility for donald trump. kamala harris continues to gain some electoral votes. it now stands kamala harris at 219, trump at 266. so we're waiting for that call to come from nbc news. >> yes, we are. only takes one more state, but that call has not been made by nbc. all right. with that said, let's get you caught up where things stand in the race right now. we are 270 to win. you get 270 electoral votes, you win. so if donald trump were to win one of michigan, wisconsin, nevada, arizona, he would indeed become the next president of the united states. that has not occurred yet. that's very important to remember that, no matter what the former president may say in a speech or not.

by the way, the markets are ripping on this news, that's why we're here. we do the markets and that's how we're approaching everything, dow futures, small caps. >> dow up right now 922 points. let's take a look at the battleground scorecard right now. there you're seeing, who close to call, the important battleground states of michigan, wisconsin, too close to call. nevada and arizona. arizona, the last time i looked, only about 50% of the ballots were in at this point. pennsylvania, though, goes to trump with 50.8% of the vote there. and we know he got north carolina as well. wisconsin 51.2%. but still, nbc news says that one is too close to call against harris' 47.2% of the vote. >> which is about 120,000 votes with 93% of the vote in. nobody is calling it. nbc news has not called it,

therefore, we are not calling it because we wouldn't do that. >> right. let's get a check of global marke markets, shall we? nasdaq up point and a half. s&p 500 up 1.8%. the russell 2,000, these are the small cap stocks right now. that's the s&p up 1.85%. the russell 2000 up more than 5%. >> i think that's a rip. i think it's fair to call -- jay clayton as a former chair, would you call that to be a rip? >> that's not a, a bit early in the morning. >> and bitcoin, 73,000, pulled back 5.5%. >> now, there are individual equities that are on the move as

well. how do we know this? okay, well, there are many platforms out there that do 24/7 consecutive trading. robin hood, blue ocean, they've got good body. we're showing you stocks. these are live trades, these are up volume. these stocks have real volume. tesla right now because of the musk/trump romance, trump was praising elon musk and starlink. it's up nearly 3%. contessa talked about bitcoin hitting 70,000. and up 3%. trump media is up 10%. it's coming off already huge gains. constellation energy, why are we showing you that? the other day, the federal regulatory commission whacked a deal where talen would sell stock, they might be more

pro-energy, pro-deregulation, maybe even pro-nuclear, even the biden white house has been fairly pro-nuclear in words lately that a company called constellation which owns three mile island now renamed the energy center. might be in a deal with microsoft. the energy trade moves on. >> as we go through the election morning, because we're it's in a.m., jay complaint, michelle caruso-cabrera, and david zervos. and from the yale school of management, jeff sonnenfeld. it's great to all have you here today. jeff, because you're the new voice at the table, give me a sense of where we are right now. and what this -- i mean, you wrote an incredible op-ed with a lost of former ceos. and then what we're seeing, seems to indicate there's a lot

of fervor and passion for the former president. >> you're absolutely right. there is a gap there. we haven't had a republican candidate for the presidency that's never had so little support from the leaders of major corporations in the country. usually, half of every -- you know, about half of the major ceos in the country have supported the gop candidate, going back a century. we're looking at taft or reagan or nixon or john mccain -- >> jeff, jeff, do you think that's because they don't support the donald trump policy? because that's not really what will i've been hearing. or because the sensitivities either with their employees or customers about being political, and the divisions we've had in this country? >> i'll tell you, jay, it has not anything whatsoever to do

with being woke. and there's an implication for what they do now going forward, because of what does bother them. it's true that they are not xenophobic. and i -- i think the very magnanimous words we heard from donald trump moments ago, former president trump, are encouraging, that maybe he'll move to the center. i thought he would have done that in 2016. i've known donald trump for several decades, and i was surprised he took the dark turn that he did before. and maybe he'll capture that middle ground now. but they're not xenophobic. half of the fortune 500, jay, half of them are led by immigrants or first generation of fortune -- of tech companies that are worth over $1 billion in valuation. a third of them are created by immigrants. creating tens of millions of jobs. so to be calling them vermin and everything else and poisoning

the bloodstream of the country. >> and he definitely did not do that in his speech tonight. >> no. >> tonight, he was very clear that he plans to unite the country and forget about the grievances of the past four years. he said that very clearly. >> i think that's great and that's right. >> i think an anchor, a donald trump economic plan, will be smart for immigration for exactly the reason -- >> it should be. it should be. what we had to do, i'll let you in on the secret in 2019, we couldn't get around steven miller. just to get a little secret, i had to go to jared kushner for the business roundtable. i can't attempt to name names who was involved in the business roundtable. not to mention who our construction workers are. >> let's all agree, if we're educating someone in this country, getting a graduate degree in the s.t.e.m. area or something like that that we

ought to be able to retain that. >> that's where steven miller is and was. i think we can work around that, jay, it would make a big difference. it was very good brinkmanship. secondly, they're not protectionist and they're not isolationist. that's going to matter a lot. if we see president putin sworn in further in ukraine, putting in peril the rest of eastern europe, with a war that triggers a world war, that's going to be pretty bad so we do have a problem with isolationism. >> i do know in dealing with organizations, that most everybody is free trade, except when they realize you need receptacle trade. >> i'm getting interrupted, joining us, mohammed al aryan who joins us now. it's great of you to join us, thanks for your time. given what will we've seen that

the senate control nbc news projects is going to republicans that it looks like donald trump is on a roll. he has claimed the victory already tonight in a speech. nbc news has not yet called it, what should be priority number one if there's a new administration and new leadership in the senate? >> nbc news news hasn't called it, the market has called it. the market has called not just a trump wind but a downimpact that's going to see a sweep in houses of congress. and also, looking not just at political win, but an economic win, and that's what the market is telling you. so what are they seeing you, they're seeing pro-growth policies led by deregulation. they are worried about tariffs. and you see that in the way different segments are reacting. they are worried about the deficit. and you see this in what has happened to ten-year yields.

but they're excited about energy, you see that in oil prices coming down, with the greatest supply of energy. so, the market is positioning for higher growth, higher productivity, with concerns about budgetary implications. and with concern about inflation. >> how worried, mohammed, should china be? because we hear about these tariffs. we'll see if they happen again. candidates from history of time have promised things and said things that did not happen. we already have tariffs on china, trump has threatened to increase those tariffs. a., do you believe that will happen? and b., if it does, what will be the downstream effect on inflation or consumer sales or corporate sales? >> so, i believe there will be some increase in tariffs. won't be as big as what the president has indicated in some of his speeches.

i think tariffs act as a pressure point for lots of countries around the world. in the case of china, they act as a pressure point for china to live up to its global responsibilities. i think most people agree that china has not lived up to its global economic responsibilities. so, yes, you will see quite a lot being threatened. it will have an impact on inflation. but then the question will become how big will the disinflationary impact of the higher growth, higher productivity measures. the market right now is excited about the prospects of higher growth and productivity but worried about prospects of inflation. >> mohammed, on that the issue of higher rates particularly on longer term, what advice do you give the trump administration, will it be regulatory or more

permissive around energy, but what do you give them on how to manage the balance sheet? >> jay, i put in an article yesterday, saying whoever wins has to come in and do five things. in order to be able to deliver on their promises, let alone the well-being of the country. one is promote -- continue to promote economic growth. i don't think president trump will have any issue with that. two is to get our arms around debts and debt and deficit. and that's going to be really important because we're losing flexibility in the budget every single day, which makes it harder. three, restrain your inclination to use for favorite tool too much. in the case of harris it would have been policy and government intervention. and in the case of president trump, it is tariffs. so, yes, use it, but not too much. >> by the way, just from a market perspective, mohammed, story to jump in on you, we're seeing dow futures up 1,000, not

there yet, 950. we're seeing small cap futures, vis-a-vis the russell mini, up 5%. i don't know what the historical -- if that's the best in "x" number of years, i can assure you i have not seen small caps up this much, i think since we first started to come out of coffee individual. tesla is up 12% right now. it's up slightly more in the european

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♪ and welcome back to cnbc and continuing coverage of the election. we want to check futures as we mentioned all morning long, in the green. the dow futures up 1,000 points that translates to 2.5%. s&p up 2%.

the nasdaq, actually the laggard, up 1.5%. we're taking a look overnight at tesla, robin hood platform considered to be the most liquid. taking a look right now, tesla up 9% now. moving much higher. overnight trading. joining us web securities, dan, great to have you here. a lot of people show this as a trump tree. you just put out a notice a short time ago, this election, the election of donald trump he looks to have a commanding lead in the electoral college, even though bad for evs because credits would be taken away and headwinds for the industry. why is it good for tesla? >> it's a dream scenario. this could add $40, $50 per share to tesla's stock off the

bat. we could be taking a trillion, trillion and a half for tesla. first off, from an ev perspective, trump gets elected, he'll pull the ev credits. that for scope for tesla is huge here. and doing the other thing, if trump gets in, he will fast track our esb, cybercap could get pulled in for about a year. for tesla bulls, you wake up to this, this is exactly what you want to see, of course, musk will clearly have a big voice in the trump administration. >> you're saying for tesla, a tailwind, nbc news has not called the election yet, despite the fact that former president trump has a lead in the electoral college. but you're saying the trump administration would have less regulation and allow elon musk and tesla to push forward autonomous driving and self-driving? >> oh, yeah, you would think in china, that would be a top

initiative, to fast track the autonomous, there have been regulatory hurdles. the talk today, obviously, the initial sentiment was negative. this is the key. ultimately, tesla valued a.i. meme in the market, you look at what's happening here, this is just going to unlock that opportunity for tesla and musk. >> i want to clarify for investors, looking at tesla stock tonight, up 4%, 5%, some of the reasons it's underperforming, people feel like elon musk is distracted. the idea of musk being involved in the trump administration quote efficiency/inefficiencies are why would that be? >> right. because he's going to have a major say, right. potentially, ultimately serving as an adviser, especially when it comes to the china issues. a.i. when you look at tesla, the biggest issue here has been regulatory.

you look at the tax credit, bullish for tesla. negative for evs. if you look at a tesla perspective, trump getting in it really becomes what i view as an uber bullish scenario for tesla stock. >> and covering the a.i. stockses but i want to talk about apple. you and i were talkiing you believe elon musk would be an intermediary between the trump administration and china? >> yeah, go back to 2018, 2019, there were carveouts for iphones. i think the initial knee jerk here is does apple get caught in a trade war, just like tesla. i think on the china stuff, you will definitely see carveout. he understands the china market as well as cook better than anyone. i think that's why here, this is good for big tech, when it comes to overall a.i., on the china set, i don't mean that too much of a negative when it comes to

apple. i also think it comes down to regulatory, does kahn, with the ftc, if she goes away, that bullish for apple, bullish for apple. >> i think the consensus lina khan will not be at the ftc if trump is brought back to the white house, i think questionable with harris as well. you're saying with trump there, that headwind when it comes to regulation, iphone dominance and search and thing, you think that goes away? >> i think that's a 10, 15% overhang in stocks. look at google, antitrust worries there, apple as well. so from a big tech perspective, trump getting in, there's criticism from china, and we got to see the tariffs play out. but, again, i think musk will probably calm some of that down, bark will be worse than the bite. from a big tech perspective, khan out, on the side, bullish

for big tech, bullish for tesla. tomorrow morning, assuming if trump does get in, this is something that i think this puts more fuel in the engine for tech rally, nasdaq 20,000. >> once again, u.s. futures up big right now. the dow will open up 1,000 points higher. let's go to other markets, hang seng, under pressure. stocks like renovo, j.d.com and alibaba, under pressure as well. what does it mean for china? >> hugely negative for china. some of the tariffs. if you trajectory this out, this is bullish for u.s. tech, bear ri ish tech. how do the chinese companies get their chips. a lot of a.i. premium comes out

of the china tech. so you sit here today, super bullish for u.s. tax, bearish, i'm talking about bears coming out of hibernation mode for china tech. >> on evs with tariffs on them here in the u.s. but a potential trump re-election what does that mean for the chinese and basically north america, does that stop any plans that they have to manufacture the evs in the u.s. and does it change plans for the other side of the world? >> yeah, that's why ford, gm, some of these other names are up today because it feels like now that's not going to happen with trump in. clearly bearish when you look at bwo and others, it just speaks to others, there's a spread chart of possibilities that go out here. ultimately, big tech, tesla really on top in terms of

benef beneficiaries, in terms of the scenario of what we could see playing out. >> one other stock you want to talk about is palantir, how does palantir play into this. commercial business growing. a defense contract, essentially, with a lot of that business, with a trump president, how is that? >> more pain on that trade. for palantir, i think a.i. initiatives in the government are going to be a huge focus within the beltway. that's probably going to be one of the top priorities if trump gets in. palantir, a huge for them. showing more and more that continues to be, not just the messy of a.i. but a core a.i. play, not just enterprise, but in the government, in that 202 area code. >> you just mentioned a possible repeal of the chips act. how much of a risk is that for

the chips sector? how much of a risk overall in terms of the geopolitical tensions we have, if we're not ramping up manufacture of chips in the u.s., is that a medium risk or moderate risk? >> i think it's a risk for i intel. and positive for nvidia, for names that weren't really going down that path. but this has to all play out. because i think there are changes, more of that focus on a.i. but for chips in the u.s., don't hold your breath. if trump comes in, intel manufacturing is not going to be here in the u.s. >> we got to get back to tesla, brian, before we go, we got to get to the audience nice to stay up all night. give the stock with the biggest stock. tesla is obviously one. >> tesla, palantir, microsoft owning on that trade, clearly nvidia. and to me, other names even on small cap or midcap, cyber security i think will be bullish. pal alto, table pounder,

z-scaler, crowdstrike. those are names you own on this friday. >> best dressed man on wall treat, contessa and brian, back f you. >>rank, thank you for that. up next, we head to beijing for a live report on how chinese markets and chinese state media are digesting these developments. cnbc is back after this.

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♪ welcome back to cnbc's live coverage of the 2024 "your money your vote" election night. yes, we are indeed, live. and we're sitting this as only we can do on cnbc which is from a markets and date daa perspect. dow futures up more than 1,000, 1010 points. small cap the same, europe high across the board. germany up 1, it. france, 2%.

that's you're welcome in french there. there you go. asian markets there higher across the board except for china. when you look at the hong kong hang seng down 2%. shanghai, down, shenzhen down, the rest doing well. china seems to be right in the crosshairs of what is likely to be, not called yet, not over yet, a second trump presidency. we will wait to call that. tech stocks in china, they're all down across the board. and the likelihood of increased tariffs on many of these companies. let's talk more about china. their economy, and also what the chinese media may be saying right now. we don't know, but our friend eunice yoon is live in beijing certainly does. as she joins us, eunice, it's likely to be a new day there as well. >> reporter: yeah. yeah, absolutely, i mean, you mentioned the market reaction,

hong kong led the day's losses as you had said, because of the weakness that we saw in the tech plays as well as the ev names. a lot of investors still mulling what a potential trump win could mean for china. as you said, shanghai, shenzhen, a lot is that china is going to unveil fiscal stimulus on friday so people are very much focused on that as well. earlier in the week, we heard that a package could be 10% to 20% larger under a trump win, if the former president imposes, as he's pledged, to impose wide-ranging steep tariffs on chinese-made goods. now, we also heard from a former government economist who told investors at a city event this week that trump's pledged tariffs at 60% could cut chinese exports by $200 billion. so china state media which has

been largely quiet up until this moment, about the u.s. election, has been ramping up its rhetoric. describing the u.s.-style democracy as what they say unprecedented chaos, up to contrast it with china's own one party rule. the topic of the u.s. election has been widely discussed here. again, a lot of chinese companies have been concerned about the short-term volatility and uncertainty that they would see if president trump were to come in and impose a lot of those tariffs. but there is one winner that people have been discussing here. and that is elon musk. saying that elon musk is a de facto vice president of trump. >> elon musk definitely got a lot of high-profile praise from donald trump at his -- at his speech in west palm beach, florida, eunice. thank you for joining us. we appreciate that. let's stay on china, and bring

in dewadderic o'neal, a contributor at longview global. and cnbc. mohammed al erian with us as well. when you're looking at the united states and china, especially where tariffs were concerned, what do you expect to see? and how soon do you expect to see some major reaction from china? >> well, i think china's very concerned about the rhetoric around tariffs. i think what they will wait to see is what actually happens. but unlike 2018, contessa, china has developed a whole range of tools to hit back. you know in 2018, it was agriculture. i think now what china has really developed are tools to go after the critical mineral

supply chain and some of the advanced manufacture supply chain that weed me for clean air to transition if we're going down that path. so i think china will be slow, patient and opportunistic, but i think there is some concern, at least on the financial side of the house about a trump presidency. but i don't think everyone in china, quite frankly, will be upset by this. because if trump continues to do what he said he was going to do and that's oppose across-the-board tariffs including some of our allies and partners, will china see that as an opening to get closer to europe, in a way they've been seeking to do during the biden administration, but just has no real room or opportunity to do so. >> we're showing asian stocks, alibaba off by 4%. jd.com off by 4% and others, mohammed, when you're looking at -- not just chinese

companies, but when there's a cold war until the united states, it has a trickle down effect across a lot of economies. how do you see this? >> first, i see it complicating china's light enormously, even before tonight, china had an internal economic problem. and china saw global growth from tailwinds to headwinds. now, china has to worry about more tariffs. and this notion, contessa, they can simply implement stimulus and everything can be fine is wrong. there's a reason they haven't done that in the past. and that is because stimulus is helping an old economic model they're trying to evolve from. where i completely agree with what has just been said is that china is going to take advantage of this situation, in order to get more countries to buy into its alternative system. now it's alternative system isn't as comprehensive, isn't as efficient as the dollar-based

system, but china is going to continue to push it hard. >> dewardric, there's a military aspect. and i'm definitely no expert. we know what the president has been said about the support or lack of for ukraine. and we know that it he will turn a militaristic eye towards it. number one do you believe that? and number two, if we see the u.s. turn more aggressive with china militarily, what does that look like? does xi jinping start making deals with us, or does he dig in and take a harder line? >> well, i think what xi is going it do is really deploy what i call a comprehensive national power set of tools. so, it won't be necessary a hard military line, although i think he certainly would not shy away

from that. but, you know, china has a range of tools that it can deploy. china has lots of agency. i do think we will see a pivot back to asia if some of the trump foreign policy names that i know make it into this administration. they believe we've been distracted certainly with ukraine. and then pose a challenge with china for sure. but i don't think we should look at this in just a defense space. china will deploy a range of tools to try and compete with the u.s. this managed competition that we've been seeing over the last four years will fade away, and that the trump administration in china will engage in just pure raw competition. >> dewardric, appreciate your insight. mohamed el-erian will be sticking around. folks, it's not called yet. we'll get the latest poll data

from two critical states, the ones that could certainly tip the balance over 270 electoral votes. dow futures, they're up over al000 points, 1,133 points. sml cap is up. bond yield is up. gold's up. we're glad you're up, because we're still up. and we're back after this. cirkus what you hope for whenirkus life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

♪ it is just about 4:00 in the morning here on the east coast of united states. 1:00 a.m. out west. glad you're with us. we are here live at cnbc headquarters from "your money your vote" election night coverage. and markets, they are moving in a big, big way. let's take a quick look. dow futures up 1145 points. nasdaq futures up 357. one of the biggest moves that

we've seen, small caps, not going to show them to you, small caps up 5% right now. a potential trump victory could have big implications for the bond market as well. piper sandler research firm has called the king of debt. wondering where debts and deficits will go. ten-year treasury moved up a little, 4.4. it was at 3.66 just one month ago. what about precious metals? if you're talking inflation, you're really talking gold. gold continues to make, not right now, record high, made some, 2732. and gold had hit an earlier record. what about individual names? we told you about coinbases, the they're soaring, realtime, robin hood, gr group, they're the operator of private prisons.

this whole concept of potentially getting back to too tough on trial, the market things, it's not our opinion, gr prison up 20%. health care, big split, if you're an insurance company, medicare, medicaid, insurer, good for the humanas, united health groups, humana up 5.5%. bad for hospital administrators, good for insurers. we just talked to eunice yoon about chinese, cars, what's the risk here? well, general motors up 4%, ford up 3%. one wonders if trump gets in office and knocks down the ev tax credits will ford and gm, perhaps, a., face less tax threat and the political halo around electric cars and forced

by the administration that loses billions of dollars per year. respectfully, many customers have said simply with their wallets, they don't want it. >> with the price. >> a lot. >> and they have to produce it and that would suggest that they don't have to -- >> yeah, michelle, this is a big thing, we're saying ifs because, contessa, the race has not been called. but if there's a rollback, if there's a rollback of emissions standards, right? remember, former president trump pulled us out of the paris climate agreement, current president joe biden put us back in. it seems clear, jay clayton, if re-elected would be the first nonconsecutive president since glover cleveland, that pull us out of the paris climate, from a climate perspective, this could be good news for ford and gm

that make their money selling large gas pickup trucks. >> and what have we learned? we've learned that you're not going to force an energy transition by starving yourself of fossil fuels. or by causing people to drive cars they do not want to drive. that do not have the range and flexibility. all you need to do is not just look here, but look at europe. do you think europe is happy that they've starved themselves with fossil fuels. and face dependency now on us for gas. and, you know, basically have very little leverage over russia. you know what we can level-set that now. we know we need a lot of energy. try to make a responsible transition, but you do not do that by starving yourself of fossil fuels. >> we've watched germany defossilize before our eyes. it's incredible in an industry that just begs for -- >> i will tell you, i was in those meetings, and people

thought you were crazy if you said this was a mistake, that forcing higher costs on the manufacturers is going to drive that manufacturer overseas. >> and if it wasn't for u.s. -- as i've said -- i've stood on energy tankers in the port of lauderdale, reported on this, if it wasn't for the u.s. liquefied gas, i call it the marshal plan for energy, right? after world war ii that we built it. germany, they're paying four times, five times our natural gas prices any. they'd been 10x, still buying from russia but russia lng even with the nord stream. what we're monitoring the election results coming in where there are still a handful of states too close to call, arizona, nevada, wisconsin, michigan, maine and new hampshire still not called. though donald trump did come out today with victory speech and

claimed victory, nbc news decision has not done it. take a look here at trump media, up almost 50%. and it was already up on a tear, even leading into this. when we're looking at the overseas markets, we're seeing european markets opening -- or better. the asian markets -- >> except for china. >> except for china, with us, mohamed el-erian with allianz, and david zervos. >> david's still here? >> david's here. >> david's the most patient man in the world. david, i want you to jump in, working for jeffries, publicly traded company. i want to give the shoutout to the data team, they're working live. we look smart because they make us smart, thank you. jpmorgan chase, guys, the premarket just opened up, michelle, take a guess, how much

is jpmorgan chase on the cover of my screen -- >> 5%. >> 5.9, of course nice. we're not high-fiving the move, but that she got it right. and goldman sachs subpoena is up again, david zervos. do you think the market, deal flow with china as well, does that sort of merit these kinds of moves in the equities? are you seeing the grease in the market engine move like that? >> for sure. i mean, i could even make an argument that 5 is too low. and i was making an argument a few hours ago that i thought the s&p might be up a little bit more. i think it's going to keep going. >> you did nail that. >> i think there's a lot -- a lot of momentum from the deregulation trade. we already talked about that. i think there's a lot of momentum from potential lowering

of government expenditures and reduction, crowding out of the private sector that we also talked about. and i think there's an overreaction and worry and overworry, about the inflation and tariff side of the equation. and i am somewhat heartened to see that the bond market is not really pricing in any kind of major problems with a barely ten basis point in the ten-year right now. i don't see them getting overly nervous. and that was something i would have worried about, putting some brakes on the equity market, is that yields would go up too much, or the dollar would strength too much. we've seen those calm down, in particular, the yields. and i'm scratching my head and wondering if the red sweep idea, and this idea that government spending is going to come down, as well as taxes coming down. so both your "g" comes down and your "t" comes down, i know you're all thinking gin and tonics, but your "g" and "t"

comes down. that's going to open up this whole sort of elon musk-led story line that's going to take the private sector to new levels. who is going benefit from that? jeffrey is in there and there are banks as well. >> david, on that note, you mentioned a red sweep. we know that nbc news is projecting that the senate control will go to republicans. also, we're waiting to hear about the house. we're getting revealing exit polling data from cnbc's emily wilkins, emily, what have you learned? >> contessa, a couple things here with the exit polls, one, just looking into the economy a little bit, particularly in pennsylvania, we've already obviously seen that state call for trump, i think it gives perspective into what we're seeing and some of the shifts that we're looking at tonight. you know, democrats are prized to make the case with the economy, showcasing the low unemployment and falling

inflation. and yet, if you look at the exit polls, majority out, two-thirds of individuals said that the economy was either doing not so good or poor. in addition to that, the family financial situation. when the poll was asked about that, you can see the graphic there, about two-thirds for the poor and not so good. in addition when the exit folks were asked about their family situation, almost half, 48%, said it was worse now than it was four years ago. only 22% said that they felt like it was better. and this is leading to another big story that we're seeing this evening that's playing out in some of the exit poll. and that is the story of the latino voter. for them, the most important issue that we have seen is the economy. you can see there tonight, harris does have a slight lead with latino voters but take a look at trump there with 45%. that's what you've got this time around, 2024. you let that go in 2020.

and trump only had 32%, so he has made immense gains this time around with latino voters, particularly latino men. national exit polls have shown that he's gotten more than half of those men voting for him. and i think this is going to play a big role later tonight, we're keeping a very close eye, of course, on nevada. 17% of the population there is latino and hispanic, we're keeping a close eye on that. and trump's gains with these group of voters really could make the difference in nevada and potentially some other states as we continue to watch these very, very close races tonight. >> nevada, the promise that trump made on the campaign trail to eliminate taxes on tips, thank you very much, 4:00 a.m., that was very popular with so many people who work in the service sector in nevada. and then we saw the vice president come out on the campaign trail and say she supported that. let's bring in operation open founder, john hope bryant.

and also with me is jeffrey sonnenfeld. when you look at that, 68%, john, of the people who say, i don't care what you've got experts on cnbc saying, the economy's not so great. what does that tell you about the work in front of the nation's leaders about the electorate? >> that's a very good question. by the way, you guys have been doing an excellent job all night. i've been watching you all night. great job. this is a vibrant democracy, and people -- you've been expressing a range of voices which is important here. look, my credit counseling is up. it's been up for a wohl at operation hope. not just the poor and struggling class, but the middle class. folks with too much month at the end of their money. i've been saying on cnbc for a long time that the color is not black or white race, or red or blue politics, but green. economics. and that this is -- this is a topic that has been creeping up

into -- it's a primary issue, more and more. and a couple have gotten it right over the last 20 years. president bill clinton got it right where he got the deficit down, economy up. and people felt they were doing better. we know this country is an idea, not just a country, so it's how we feel about things matter. so, yes, the economic issues of the average, everyday person drove, i think, their decisionmaking. people are -- 70% of this economy, it hasn't been mentioned yet in the last few hours i think it needs to be mentioned, 70% of the biggest economy in the world is consumer spending. this one. 70%. it's not big business. it's the average everyday person. and the small businesses, two-thirds of all new jobs and half of all employment in this country. >> you mentioned the deficit. and it's not something that we really hear out on the campaign trail.

it's not something if you ask voters they will say, oh, i'm so concerned about. but is there -- there a correlation between the opportunity that is in front of the very people that you're trying to counsel and how desperate the debt situation is for our nation? >> i think because of financial illiteracy, people don't understand the national budget. they don't understand the debt. in many cases they don't understand their own debt and their own households. let me go back, by the way, to your last question, which is the job for the new leader, whoever it is, once it's decided. the selling's over. the deal may be closed. now you need a business plan for america. because the enemy is not your next door neighbor. it's not republican or democrat, it's countries who want to take us out as leader of the world, as china, russia, north korea and iran. we've got to focus on we're better together. and get a business plan for

people at the bottom to follow the ladder to the people at top. it's not so much -- our clients are not -- they're turning to debt because they don't have enough income. their own debt. they're turning to credit cards and debt because they've got too much month at the end of their money. by the way, half of those making $100,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck. >> john, i don't know if you caught it a road trip, erie, pennsylvania, grand rapids, kenosha. i want to summarize there, people in erie, one of the poorest zip codes in the united states, good people, they need your middle name. they need hope, right? that's what i heard because the city has been gutted by manufacturing leaving, they're trying to look and it's a 94% poverty rate. i would ask you, we don't have an outcome yet, nothing's been called. that said, if you were to get a call from a president trump

should he be re-elected and he says, john, what can i do to help communities like erie, like other areas where they need help, schooling's difficult, they don't see opportunity or optimism, what would your advice be? >> the credit score up within a year, 700, it's a 100-point pop. by the way, we did a graph, brian, of all seven of the battleground states they're remarkably similar. they're basically stuck in the middle. and they don't feel like they're aspirationally going up. it's not just erie. for those in the middle, if feels like the ladder is not helping them to come up with this american dream. and it's really a microcosm of the macro story of america. i will come back to that. but to nail your question, get the credit score up 100 points. get them trained in financial literacy. get them trained in a.i.

literacy. artificial intelligence which is going to change everybody's world. jobs are going to go away with a.i. those service jobs. there will be a bunch of new jobs coming in, get them trained for the new jobs. technology and finance are two things this have to understand coming out of high school. get those parents in a position where they get good credit, and prime rates and when the credit score goes up, they got to want to become homeowners now aspiration, you become more hopeful, you become a small business owner, you want to write the check, not just cash it. that economic -- focusing on the green, focusing on preparing the ladder, might be part of also the healing that has got to happen in this country. i wrote down -- there's five things one of your guests said needs to happen. >> mohamed. >> i don't disagree with that.

i think there are five other things that need to be focused on. economic growth, he and i agree on that. two, healing. for human being. healing. three, strengthening the middle class which i just talked about the seven swing states are just sort of stuck in the middle. >> yeah. >> four, growing the table. the democrats of this country are different than they were 20 years ago. latino numbers, you talk about blacks and latinos, this is the aspiration generation. you got to grow this table, more people feel they can participate and lastly, reducing debt, personal debt, and our government debt by growing gdp. >> that takes us back full circle sort of where my question was, jeff, you talk to a lot of business leaders across america. when you're looking at the way that these results have come rolling in, how should business leaders across america set up

for the new day? >> i agree with all of john ace points, especially his first point about the public service you folks are providing with this amazing marathon and mixture of opinions and piece. it's fantastic. contessa, michelle, brian, it's remarkable, you should be very proud of these last 4 hours 17 minutes. but jay is amazing. jay deserves a special award. jay's been on for like 9 hours 20 minutes. i don't know how he does it. he's not even hoarse. also, john talked about the messaging obliquely. and heidi talked about this is economic, we've had a great economic team, but you wouldn't know talking to them. when they come on cnbc or elsewhere, we are our own worst critics.

no administration has seen a better economy, with inflation falling where it is. >> voters disagree with you, jeff. thank you for your time. we appreciate it but -- voters disagree. >> there's something called the sleeper effect. it was studied in 1953. it is when you repeat unfounded information over and over again. it takes root. people start to believe this is a bad economy. >> yeah. >> look anywhere, it's the strongest economy in the world. our inflation was lower than the uk -- >> but hit by inflation very hard and it becomes -- but prices are still higher than 2019. >> lumber is down 95%. all metals are down. >> and the housing market? >> housing is up, that's the federal reserve, monetary policy. so that's what's different. but our gdp growth is the envy the world. and the wages are outstripping inflation. >> yeah. >> but also what's happened, we've tripled manufacturing jobs in just the places like erie

you're talking about is that all of these different biden initiatives have been extremely effective. they don't know how to communicate. they started apologizing for success and believing tr trumpoganda. >> jeffrey, it's great to see you, and michelle and john. thank you for joining us. >> you're only as good as your show guests. you guys are the best. thank you very much. coming up, much big market moves, dow futures up, small caps up more than 5%. bonds are on the move as well. gold coin, bitcoin is hiergh. markets moving, dare we say b bigly. we're back right after this.

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♪ well, welcome back to "your money your vote" election night coverage. we are live here at cnbc. it's 4:23 in the morning. and we are waiting for the race to be called. donald trump with a very healthy lead, but again, nothing directly been called by nbc. the markets, though, as mohamed el-erian said a few moments ago, they appear to be making their own calls. dow futures up, small caps up. bonds the move with yields up. and individual stocks are moving as well. some of them not up. look at those names. we go back to that chart, dies, solar stock, first solar, solaredge, enphase energy, nextera, any of the companies seen as beneficiaries of the inflation reduction act money and tax credits that donald trump has threatened to pull back, now congress will have something to say about it. but those stocks are trading down. just a quick note, by the way, on first solar, before we go to

frank holland. i've heard a lot of reports that say first solar based in phoenix could actually benefit even under a trump administration because trump may tariff cheaper chinese markets more. if you're a first solar investor, do some homework on that there's a variety of different views on that stock. let's get to frank holland. he's got a closer look at what retail investors might and maybe are thinking at this point with a special guest. >> joined by j.j. kanaan, ceo of igo north america. j.j., great to have you here. >> great to be here. >> energy, some of the biggest laggards. going forward. i want to go back to the buildup to the election. what do you see in the retail trade area? what are you telling people to put their money on and what are they seeing? >> you and i talked about tesla.

obviously, tesla being one that investors came for. microsoft, microsoft is always an interesting stock, microsoft, whenever the market sells off, it's one of the first one that traders begin to buy. they're in cyberwork heavily. obviously, crowd work, et cetera. that's one a bigger one going forward. one that our clients are normally going to buy anyway, but bought in a much heavier way than normal. alphabet, our clients have been baying that in anticipation of this also. if you talk about the pressures in the meg 7 stocks and the breakup. some may argue that the parts may be greater than the sum. but the pressure and distraction of having to do so many think will come away, because of a trump win overall. and some of the regulations that may be from doj or dol, whatever it may be, may not be as heavy. >> interesting, you're talking

about microsoft underrated for cyber security. and the purchase of mandian, bolstered their cyber security as well. >> absolutely. these companies own so much overall, it can be difficult for the average to keep track of what they're doing. with that, i do find that they have parts that can benefit. what is most interesting, probably, frank, overall, apple was a big play on earnings. overall, apple was a big play but 50/50 split. you have to wonder one thing, retail seem to lean bullish side because they have longer holding periods, et cetera. to see apple a 50/50 split. people aren't sure of what to make of that stock. what will it mean if there are tariffs, et cetera, how will it affect production of the phone, i think that one is an interesting stock to watch going

forward to see what the market ends up voting on apple's behavior. >> you and i chatted about this offcamera, we've seen oil production ramp up under the biden administration. but you're saying that a pro-trump trade right now, as you're seeing a lot of retail investors playing on the idea that they believe former president trump is going to win the election? >> yes. and i think overall, the energy sector in general, retail is a big believer will be a beneficiary of that. now, we will see, many believe, the price of oil, because of noninflationary policies, if you will, will come down and that could affect them to the negative side. the other area that kind of flies under the radar when it comes to energy may be coal production. you have a company companies like new corp. and peabody energy which could be beneficiaries. again, what i look for in a trump administration is just where has the regulatory environment been the heaviest. >> okay. >> you may see some of that drop

back. >> jpmorgan out with a note actually in recent days saying new corp., cleveland cliffs some are going to benefit from a potential trump re-election. i want to bring in stephanie gray from hightower. steph, i want to get your take on it, futures moving higher throughout the morning. especially the small cap futures. >> yeah. so, i think the fact that we're going to have an answer some time today, most likely, is one less overhang on the markets. it's been very worrisome that we wouldn't get an answer. so that's a good -- that's a positive. looks like it is a trump win. and it also looks like it's a sweep. but it's too early to really call that. the point being, though, we're now looking at probably under a trump administration, faster economic growth, maybe stickier inflation. that's what the bonds market is telling you, giving the yield, yield backing up, ten-year, 50 basis points. by the way, since the fed cut

rate, the bond rate, ten-year 360 to now 4.5%. a little bit higher tariffs, for sure, but offset by a lot less regulation. and probably a lot less government expenditure. all of this added up you're looking at a pretty decent environment going forward. oh, by the way, frank, we already have a decent environment. we're running at 2.5% in gdp. the consumer continues to spend. and services were the best in two years yesterday with new orders pretty strong. and the pricing component tame. and you have this manufacturing renaissance going on with reference to grid power and tied to obviously the a.i.-buildup. you add it all up, it can bring a sigh of relief that we have an answer. a lot of cash on the sidelines, 6.4 trillion in money markets. you'll see a nice rally at the end of the year. remember, under trump, the first

trump, eve of the election to mid-march of 2017, the s&p 500 rallied 11%. you mentioned small caps. >> okay. >> it's also financials. it's also cyclicals and the reflation trade that should lead the market it's high. >> j.j., you're looking at financials, before we go back to brian and contessa. j., j.j., we're looking at a note, the ten-year raising by as much as 40 basis points. is that a concern, the fact that the dollar is strengthening going into the election junior and red sweep of bond yields going up potentially 40 basis points. >> i think on the ballot, president trump does not like a strong ballot. it will be easier to see what happens there. to stephanie's point, you've

seen an incredible rally in the ten-year. we talked about the russell, the strongest in the russell is the financials. as we talked a minute ago, that's a sector, again, higher yields doesn't hurt that sector in any way, shape or form. you take that you take the fact perhaps the regulatory environment being easier for them. it could be a nice time with financials which is great for the s&p also there. >> we're going to leave it there, j.j. great to have you, stephanie, brian and contessa, back to you. >> when we said bond yields, david zervos said i don't know. we'll get his after the break. >> and stephanie link has her christmas tree up november 6th. >>s that the spirit of the season. >> nobody celebrates like stephanie. we're going to hear from

legendary investor, mark mobius, what the national markets say and do for you. we're back after this.

♪ it is 4:35 in the morning here at cnbc headquarters. and we're looking right now at the european market's reaction to the results coming in. the election results across. you can see the deutsche bank -- deutsche bank -- the dax is up a percent. the cac is -- >> deutsche bank is part of the deutsche dorse, correct. >> in asia, we're seeing a stark contrast between japan and south korea. well, now south korea's turned too. you've got the nikkei up 2.5%. but the shanghai is off. down worse than that, it's

recovering somewhat. hang seng down more than 2%. and kospi off by 0.5%. bitcoin hit a record, up $75,000. it has recovered somewhat. but now we're seeing it up 6.4%. and some of the other cryptocurrencies have been up on the day as well. as we've watched this come in -- oh, here we go, this is what we're looking for, some of the crypto stocks that we're seeing from robinhood, robinhood at 10%. coinbase up 13. riot up 14%. joining us, david zervos and jay clayton and from london, mohamed el-erian, and mobius fund chairman mark mobius, it's great to see you all today. thank you so much for your time. mark, let me begin with you, if we could. i was just going through the

international markets. it looks like both asia and europe were broadly, fairly optimistic, about the certainty that comes with a decisive win. they're factoring in, though, nbc news has not projected yet, a trump victory. >> yeah, it's really exciting we're sitting here on the edge of our seat. it looks like a trump presidential win but also a win for republicans in house and senate. if that happens you're going to see the u.s. economy really taking off. lots of deregulation which, by the way, will be very good for emerging countries. because one of the things, as i travel around the world, the incredible impact of u.s. regulations in these countries regarding, you know, transfer of funds, familial custom, hopefully, that will go down the drain and much freer trade and movement of currencies. and the other thing, a u.s.

economy is great for emerging countries because it means more trade, more investment. as you know, the u.s. is one of the largest, if not the largest invest, around the world in emerging countries. so a trump win in this way is going to be very positive for emerging countries. and i think you're seeing it already. it effective in the movement of markets. >> yeah, i would say, that while we know that the senate has gone, according to nbc news, waiting on the presidency. not sure about the house. but, mark, to your point, there is a good possibility that there is some kind of a sweep which makes, obviously, legislation, the path, a lot easier. what would be, as a global investors, one of the most successful and famous in modern history, what would be something that a new congress or a newly shame shaped white house could do that would spark that foreign investment here or other

countries, how would you advise a new incoming administration? >> first of all, don't forget, the u.s. dollar is going to get stronger. that leads to inflows from countries around the world. one very significant thing that trump recently said, and he said that we have to strengthen the u.s. dollar. and we have -- can't let the u.s. dollar be weakened by other competitors. so, that's a very, very significant -- and i believe that if you see that strengthened dollar, more flows will flow into the u.s. but also, the larger u.s. economy will mean more outflows. more investments by u.s. companies. the most important thing is for the u.s. to let up on the regulation of foreign direct investments. nowadays, when i want to make an investment in other countries, we've got to do all kinds of crazy paperwork, you know. are you investing with iran?

are you doing this, are you doing that? hopefully, they'll wipe this out so people can transfer money from one place to another and make investments in country where is they want. so i think this is very significant. >> mohamed, can i get your reaction? >> i think it will be significant if it happens. i don't think it's going to happen. but i do agree with mark that the rest of the world's going to benefit from a positive demand effect, from the u.s. it will look very carefully as to whether we get a weaponization or deweaponization of harris of trade and investment sanctions, that's a question mark. and then there's a price effect. i go back to yields. yes, they've only moved 15 basis points but as stephanie said they've moved an astonishing 70 basis points since the fed last met. we have a fed meeting today, there's going to be questions what does the election mean for the past rate cuts. so the rest of the world is

going to welcome a demand effect. keep an eye on weaponization of trade and sanctions. and where the price effect, particularly yield, because that translates into significantly higher volume costs. >> so, i just want to make the point, typically, when we see a big dollar rally, or the dollar strengthens, it does put pressure on emerging markets and emerging markets have some trouble. if mark is right and we get all of this deregulation that opens up capital flows that could offset it but as mohamed said, he agrees that would be good but doesn't think it will happen. i think i'm more on mohamed's side that type of deregulation isn't what trump is about. trump wants resuhoring, he want to stuff to happen here. i'm not sure he's happy to be foreign investments going out for our companies. >> with everybody's reaction, i think we shouldn't forget something that the world is more

interconnected than before. particularly around tech. we have six largest tech companies in the world, six tech companies, every country comes out of poverty. every country around the world brings a benefit back to the u.s. >> for sure. >> if what we're doing sort of spurs grons growth around the w it comes back to us. >> and, david, to your point, i was showing you a headline from der spiegel in germany, with the model over -- every company in the dax, the german dow is called the dax. the entire dax, the 30 biggest companies in germany combiened are is smaller in market cap than nvidia. >> and s&ps -- >> well, the point is well taken. the dollar, david zervos, it's

not that we're doing it right, everyone else is doing so much wrong -- wronger, more wrongly -- >> the second thing we treat capital in the united states pretty much better than anybody else. whether human capital or physical capital. if you're going to walk in with $100 million and put it to work, there's no better place than putting it in place. that's a fact. that's why our stock market does what it does. that's why the pes in europe are so low. and merging risk premiums much more complicated to get your money in and out of them. i don't think it's a deregulation story that's going to help em. em could get drug higher to what jay is talking about. but the big story tonight, the big story for the next four years is that we're going to make capital even more valuable in the united states. we're going to make it so people want to come here and invest here. i think that's a big, big story

for our growth, our productivity. and if we cut back on spending at the same time we cut taxes. i think we free up a lot of resources for the private sector. >> it's interesting how often the deficit has come into the bigger picture here. mark mobius, thank you for getting us kicked off on an amazing conversation. appreciate that. ahead, outside of tesla, trump media and crypto, one sector that's riding the trump trade higher this morning. we're back after this.

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♪ and welcome back to the cnbc election special "your money your vote." great to have you on board. we've been talking a lot about the markets of the market that are booming as we see former president trump take a commanding lead in electoral college. we want to focus on one of them, financials, kre up 3%. kbe that represents the broader banking sector but by 2.5%.

kre now moving 9.5% higher. here joining me to talk about financials, malcolm etheridge at the capital management planning group. malcolm, i want to get your take on the upside of moving financials? >> yeah. it actually makes sense, when you consider the fact there's a lot of pent-up m and a demand, over the last several years, it's been sidelined by a pretty hostile doj and i imagine tech. i think that's where it will come from the bigger banks. getting an idea that banks are going to be positively favored. that's benefitting the russell 2000 now, that's based on traditional metrics, savings and loan metrics but in particular that m and a is driving the big banks. >> jpmorgan up 6%.

goldman sachs, just above 6%. are those the banks that you are seeing biggest benefit? and wells fargo and citigroup up 5%. >> it is. those have the ability to adapt. market interest rates have been significant eye higher for the last five years. they found a way to make revenues during that time. as interest rates are in a decline right now, they'll still figure out how to make revenues during that time where the smaller and regional banks only really have one mechanism which is that savings and loan, being able to clip whatever that margin is in between in the sweet spot. i think the bigger banks have moved on and don't necessarily have to rely on that type of revenue so much to have a really solid year. >> right now, we're looking at regional banks up as well. you're looking at the potential downside. highlighting the rise in dollar, bond yields. especially the expectation to see an even sharper rise in

beyond yields if there is a quote-unquote red sweep. what are the downsides you're looking at? >> one thing with the trump term where he's been very clear with his interest in disempowering the fed. all of the other policies that we've been talking about to this point seem to be very inflationary. especially with the republican sweep. so you have, at the same time, that inflation is likely to be spiking back up, a fed chair, without the one tool that it has to combat that inflation which is usually the control of short-term interest rates. so, i think that could be one that we're maybe overlooking at this point as a potential headwind going forward, as we might have some spiking inflation. >> malcolm etheridge of the capital planning group, great to have you here. contessa and brian, back to you. >> frank and malcolm, thank you very much. a couple quick stocks, energy names on the move. premarket trades robinhood trades. a lot of stocks moved all night

long. you're seeing the premarket coming in. exxonmobil, interesting there is a school of thought if donald trump is confirmed as president this whole drill baby drill would send prices down. lower prices, actually bad for exxon and chevron. what's interesting, the united states is already at record high production, we don't hear a lot about it from the current white house, we're at 13.2, 13.3. the bigger story in energy and gas might be the companies that just help you drill more. not companies that are necessarily as price sensitive as an exxonmobil. take a look at a bkr. baker hughes. halibuten, sluchluschlumberger. they would help overall. going through the early stretch of the early hours, let's wrap up and bring back mohamed

el-erian, jay who will be on tv since grover cleveland was president. and one of the most patient men, mohamed, obviously, wee don't have a sweep yet. nothing's been confirmbut when we did have a sweep in 2021-22, it was an orgy of spending, right? single party rule. if we go back the other way, what would be your greatest economic fear? >> i don't know about fear. my greatest economic expectation is what jay and david hinted of. we're going to see major deregulation. and releasing the brakes on the current and future engines of growth. that is my biggest expectation. the biggest message for me, inflation matters. and the voters have punished the democrats for not understanding that lowering inflation doesn't

reducing the cost of living. for not understanding that if your purchasing power is being robbed, you don't pay as much attention to economic exceptionalism, because you're worried about paying the bills. so inflation, cost of living issues are going to have to be high up because that's what people voted against the democrats in a major way. >> i would actually say, it's even more than that, mohamed, it's that the price level matters not just inflation. because cumulatively, under the biden administration, we saw the cpi rise 21%. under trump and two obama terms, it was basically 7% to 8%. so it was three times as much of an increase in prices. so even though inflation has come all the way back, you say why are the democrats being penalized they got inflation back. the problem is everything is two

or three times higher than everyone thought even with inflation. they don't like targeting inflation. and frankly, i think this election was lost because they didn't keep prices in control. not inflation. but prices. >> let me wrap up from my side looking forward. and a lot of corporations know now, a pretty good idea that the regulatory environment is well-known. and it's what i would say accommodated in most cases. so whatever strategic plans you have, start tomorrow. and, you know, speed matters. corporations only have so much bandwidth. the government only has so much band bandwidth. you're going to have a period of time to execute in the new environment, take advantage of it. >> that's with tillman got cough the call earlier. you heard him say, i got to hang up, jay. >> but he did, he wants to ease those acronym agencies so he

could. >> and permanent reform. >> nbc news has projected that the senate will take back republican control -- control of the house still remains up in the air. it's too early to call that. at this point, though, though donald trump has gone out in west palm beach and delivered a victory speech and has promised to heal the nation. and let the last four years bygones, it appears nbc news is waiting to project. >> and he came out in front, most of the calls, we have not called it. but i will say very quickly, jay, let's -- indeed if this is where we go, let's hope that the former and maybe next president will find his better self in government. >> let me tell you something i learned about government, going forward is a lot easier than going backward. >> well said, well seed.

>> mohamed el-erian, thank you very much. appreciated david zervos, thank you very much. jay clayton, you've been with us since 7:00 p.m. eastern. ten straight hours. really appreciate the insight. valuable, invaluable. >> that does it for brian sullivan. >> that's me. >> frank holland and myself. thank you all for being with us this night and into the morning. cnbc's election coverage continues with an early edition of "squawk box" after this quick break. have a great morning.

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♪ good morning, and welcome to a special edition of "squawk box." former president trump has claimed victory in the presidential race. nbc news has not made that call yet, but the markets aren't waiting. they are sharply higher this morning. republicans are retaking control of the senate. at this hour, it's still too early to call control of the house. it is wednesday, november 6th, 2024. and "squawk box" begins right now.