♪ good morning, and welcome to a special edition of "squawk box." former president trump has claimed victory in the presidential race. nbc news has not made that call yet, but the markets aren't waiting. they are sharply higher this morning. republicans are retaking control of the senate. at this hour, it's still too early to call control of the house. it is wednesday, november 6th, 2024. and "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ good morning, and welcome to a special edition of "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i am joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures at this hour are sharply higher. i was checking the house. it had been much higher in terms of the betting odds. it's 79% right now. we'll see how it goes or not, the possibility of a sweep, 83%, these are on betting markets which were ahead of everything yesterday. really were. the way it was, wisconsin flipped much earlier than anyone thought it had a chance. and it worked. betting markets were much better than the polls.

futures, as you can see, look at the dow now up 1200 points, russell 2000 futures looking higher as well. and consumer treasury yields. but you can see the russell, sharply higher. crude prices -- >> up about 12 basis point. >> yeah. >> and crude, you figure, i thought it could be worse. given how the trump trade supposedly means oil prices with drill, baby, drill. bitcoin hit an all-time high yesterday. close to yesterday -- >> 75,000 at one point? >> at one point. i don't know if you guys watched dj key yesterday, it was weird you up around 43 and went down -- >> right before the close. >> it was actually earlier than that. it was weird. and then it did rebound a little bit. >> now on the move a big way. >> now, it's on the move back up. but the betting markets did not

move at the same time. i'm talking about koushi, all of them, none of them moved. it's like what is that? it is different than just the pure betting markets. you don't know what any individual meme stock owner is seeing at any given time. it's obviously indicative of -- it had no predictive value when it sold off. >> meantime, eamon javers is at the table. you have not gone to sleep. >> i got two hours. let's talk about where the race really is. what's been called. what hasn't been called. and maybe try to make some sense of what just happened. >> but let's start with the electoral map overall, we've got a map prepared in terms of battleground states we've been looking through through the night. the big kahuna in all of this was always going to be pennsylvania with 19 electoral college vote it's. pennsylvania as you see here

went for donald trump last night. if you look at that electoral college map, where we are right now, donald trump at 266 electoral college votes. remember, folks, you need 270, four votes out of those remaining states. what we're waiting for right now anyone in those battleground states would be big enough if it goes for trump to tip the balance to donald trump to have him re-elected. an amazing political comeback for the ages here. taking a look at pennsylvania ste itself. we've got a grab showing how trump and harris did in pennsylvania. it's not even close. some of these staples that we saw in pennsylvania were so close early on. trump, 50.7, harris, 48.2. here's how the former president reacted a couple hours ago, in mar-a-lago, triumphant coming out to greet his supporters. here's what he got to say.

>> i want to thank you all very much. this is great. these are our friends. we have thousands of friends with us. incredible movement. this is a movement like nobody's ever seen before. and, frankly, this was, i believe, the greatest political movement of all time. >> now, the former president there, claiming victory last night, in his speech to his supporters. of course, we should note that nbc news has not called the presidential election. we are waiting for those four electoral college votes. so, we'll wait and see where we go. but, clearly, donald trump on the verge. >> and the market's not waiting. >> right, the market's not waiting. >> let me ask you this, i think because everybody is waking up trying to understand what has happened, what it means. do you look at this based on not just the presidential election, but the senate, potentially, the house, as a seismic move in the

country towards the right? do you say that this is a repudiation of the democrats in the last -- a repudiation of the last four years? do you say it's a repudiation of the left? and when you go down these ballots and you look at some of these different ballot initiatives and try to sort of size them up against the vote, what does it mean to you? >> i mean, i think number one overall, it's inflation. inflation is an absolute killer for incumbents. and i think the american people do not feel how good this economy has been over the past couple of months. they feel price increases. hitting their ability to buy groceries. hitting their ability to go out to dinner with their family. i think also one of the sleeper issues in this campaign is cost of housing. you see the cost of housing skyrocketing. a lot of americans can't bet in the market, feel like their rent is hitting them as well. those two things in terms of

economics. but you've got to look at social issues donald trump is making a case at immigration, and transgender rights. >> right. >> how much would you say it's sales, how much would you say it's the candidate? meaning there are some people who said from the beginning she was not the strongest candidate to be in this place? that biden was not the strongest candidate to be in that place? >> look. there's going to be a lot of recriminations in the democratic party when the dust settles. i think the democratic turned to joe biden because they saw him as somebody who could finally beat donald trump. unity around joe biden was never about joe biden himself. here was a guy from scranton with union roots who could relate to american voters and beat trump. they loved him for that. we saw that debate earlier this summer, they abandoned him the minute they thought he couldn't beat trump anymore. >> the question is the politics

of resistance, that the democratic party's plan? >> i don't think the democratic party is going to wake up and say we have a whole new set of issues that we believe in, but there's questions about the tactics. did joe biden wait too long to get out of this race? if he was increasing in age and frailty,as we all saw, the democrats will say, should he have gotten out a year ago? >> right. >> and democrats have lost across almost all demographies. >> when did you both think a remote possibility that trump would win the popular vote, did you ever? >> i didn't broach any of the possibilities or not approach the possibilities -- >> okay. let's say, just in general, did anyone ever -- so, you think it's -- she was a 27% popularity vice president. now, suddenly, she became something that i guess we were told was very popular.

even though she didn't do many interviews. she didn't answer many questions. she answered questions with word salad. and still under the impression, in some sectors of the media, it was collusion. i hope there's recrimination, do you think there will be by mainstream media? do you think anyone gets their news from mainstream media anymore? >> this was information from long form podcasts right? >> you heard trump overnight on stage, i think dana light was the one who spoke out and gave a shoutout to joe rogan, too, on the things that came through with this. i think the big question is, if this happens, if this is a red wave that takes over the house as well, trump last night said promises made, promises kept. >> right. >> and i think the market is already looking at that and trying to figure out what that means. >> i was talking about this with

mark short, the former mike pence adviser, what is donald trump's agenda ga if he gets in obviously tariffs and immigration. >> what about taxes? >> taxes, yep. >> tax plan. >> repealing obamacare. you want to know what the legislative agenda is, grab the tweet from elon musk, this is the policy you'll see it. and i don't know if everyone is going to under this reference, kitchen sink, this is him with the kitchen sink. but what's important with this, he also displayed a picture of himself walking into the lobby of twitter when he first bought it with the kitchen sink. >> right. >> meaning that it's time to really slim things down. >> it's time to really slim things back.

it's going to be a role that elon musk is going to play in this administration. >> also, the terrible times that we're going to be subjected to with elon musk says he's going to do, it's about 1300 points. >> the question is what will elon musk be able to do if he's been given a commission, right -- there have been a lot of commissions in washington. >> do you think there repudiation from the left from what everything has turned into? >> that's what i just said. >> just say it's inflation. people still didn't know how good they had it with the economy. even though they still didn't have the buying power four years ago. >> that's an inflation issue. >> yeah, i know that. >> that's a huge issue. >> and this is a significant -- look across the board. >> but it's also we may not have called it -- >> it might be a swing. >> he could end up with all of the battleground states today. all of the above. >> it's immigration, the border,

social issues. >> a.i., everything. >> everything. >> and almost like once every four years, we get not the mainstream media legacy. you most, coastal elicitist view of the world, and you actually see what's going on in the real world, that's maybe what we're seeing right now. it's a shock to people. a lot of people, maybe not everyone. 312, is that where we're going to be with electoral votes? >> we will see. >> i know i was wrong on romney. i said about 312. >> we will see. >> wasn't 312 my number? >> what was 312? >> my number. >> have you been talking about that? >> yeah, and you told me i got that wrong. yes, 300 plus, even michigan, probably, i don't know what have we called at this point -- is michigan done? >> we're not there yet. >> north carolina, pennsylvania -- i mean, we don't have -- when you take a look at

that map, we're still looking on michigan, wisconsin. >> the betting cycle 99%. >> nevada. >> nevada. >> eamon javers, thank you, sir. we'll have continuing coverage of the 2024 election and the response of the marks et as we head to break. take a look at the biggest premarket gainers in the s&p 500.

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wifi's up. let's power on! let's power on! let's power on! -let's power on! it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. plus advanced security. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. powering possibilities. comcast business. power's out. reaction to election results, sylvia jablonski, everybody sees different things rorschach test, obviously, people could say, well, the uncertainty has been removed. and that's always a good thing for the markets. but if it is a red sweep, there are some people that think, at least will make the case, it's going ton inflationary, or just not what markets typically want, and that is single party control. would you be worried if the republicans do take the house as well as the presidency and the senate? >> good morning, joe. well, i think, you know, if you

kind of look back through history, you know, you had a split congress and president, you tend to get better average annualized returns about 15% or so. and we have a republican president essentially same congress, it's about 12%. so, you know, the average annual trends are still pretty positive. 12%, still in line with the s&p 500 maybe a bit higher. not too worried. i think the one here for markets and investors will be inflation and how policies impact that. but on the other side of it, if you look at some of the other good that could come out of it, you get redomestication, onshoring manufacturing boon, energy, crypto could continue to grow here. so, you know, there's pluses and minuses with everything, with these policies. >> does it matter to the markets if corporate tax rates do not go up? does it matter to the markets if there's deregulation?

or these things offset, we see the bond market, you know, yields up12 basis points, whatever it is. and we are talking potentially about tariffs. we are talking potentially about some taxes coming down. who knows what happens with tips and with overtime and, you know, that sort of wish, that oprah list of giveaways that we've seen from trump. the market -- it's only 2%. i don't want to overstate what 1200 points is. but it's still a very positive reaction, so far, for what could be, you know, a higher deficit and higher inflation. >> yeah. and on the other side of it, i think it could also be, you know, better balance sheets. better revenues and things like that for corporations. i do think it matters for corporations like you said, look at all of the futures, the market likes it, it's rallying. i think it will impact certain areas, for example, financials

will be better off with deregulation. for technology, could go either way, right? if you like deregulation, that certainly helps the apples and met as it and googles of the world. on the other side, the tariffs could balance that out. we'll see how that lands and that ends up being more of a negotiation tactic or a ding to some of those companies but it depends. things like crypto could rally. look at strategies right now, clearly deregulation there seems to be very favorable to markets. >> would you dabble in any foreign markets i'm not sure this would be a time to get long, some of them. i mean, are there concerns in some european countries in china, in -- you know, it's a global market for someone like you. i'm sure -- >> yes. >> -- there's some consternation abroad now in some of the hallowed halls of people in

germany, maybe even in china, right? >> yeah, i think -- i think when you look at the markets, we'll probably have a bias towards u.s. and onshore, particularly, things like small caps. manufacturing idea of a.i.-powered growth, things like this. i don't know that we'll be allocating to china at the moment. just because there could be tensions there on trade and tariffs and things like that, so we'll have to let that play out a little bit. i think it's onshore demeanor tr domestic trade. and i think that helps rallies and there could be trepidation for sure. >> would you ever own a bond again? >> i kind of have a bias for equities anyways, i'm not the best person to talk about that. to stay invested 6 point something in secrequities, i'm believer in dollar caught averaging, and broad-based

indices, maybe get exposure something over the mag 7. i think being invested in the market is how you win over time. so i'm going to stay long equities. >> there have been some comments that former president trump made, i don't want to get in office right in htime -- i don' want to be hoover, i don't want to get in office in time for a recession. it's been -- the last 24 hours, we've been thinking about a recession. some day there will be one. and depending on some of these policies we're talking about, tariffs, et cetera, i mean, do you expect the economic picture of this country to change in the next 12 months? do you think we're setting ourselves up for maybe the slowdown now? or do you think trump, with whatever he does, do you think it actually either continues growth or hastens the growth?

>> i think it goes back to my comment about not positioned for the election. >> you might have to now. >> yeah. but i think going into it, i think we have a strong economy. jobs are good. wages are good. isn number looks great. manufacturing good. i don't know regardless of who is elected within the next 12 months to help with policy. if you're going to spend money and raise taxes, obviously, you have to raise that somewhere else. i don't know if that comes from tariffs or overall economic growth and expansion. that remains to be seen. >> sylvia -- >> yes. >> -- for a long time, markets have wanted gridlock in washington. we've been asking the question is that to the point where nothing gets done. you don't get a budget, you never get resolutions on major issues like immigration. but clearly, the voters have pushed up and said this is a priority. that's going to mean a lot of

change, potentially. a lot of sweeping reform probably like we haven't seen since the beginning of the obama administration. is that good news at this point or not? >> yeah. i think it depends on what actually kind of passes through, right? so, i think there's uncertainty around that. but as you said, i think investors and voters are, you know, kind of voting that they want change here. so, it's arguably what we want. so we'll have to see what policies actually go into play and what happens. i think the biggest risk when you think about, just market-specific, it's going to be inflation and path of the deficit. we'll have to see that under control. >> commodities, index, maybe gold. like a bio -- it's like a david tepper buy everything, except bonds market. all right, sylvia, thank you. >> thank you. >> is your mother on -- remember that song "sylvia's mother"?

i just thought of that, i don't know. do you remember? did you used to think about that? >> no. i've never heard a song with sylvia in it. >> it's on spotify. >> all right. i'll check it out. >> probably 40 years old. >> yes. when we come back, continuing coverage of the 2024 election and the response in the markets. up next, the latest on the balance of power in congress and some key races to watch. right now, though, as we head to a break, let's take a look at the price of oil. it's down this morning 1.6%. still above $70 a barrel. $70.81. "squawk box" will be right back. want even more benefits, you can choose a medicare advantage plan like the ones offered at humana. our plans combine original

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good morning. i want to get to washington, d.c. this morning. emily wilkins joins us now. she's been taking a look at the balance of power in congress and some of the key races overnight. good morning to you, emily. >> good morning, andrew. well, republicans are starting today feeling very good. but it is not over yet. at least for the entirety of congress. for the senate it is open. republicans have flipped the senate. they take up two seats that includes ohio for democratic sherrod brown was not able to outrun trump's momentum in the state. really the question right now for the senate is how big the republican majority will be. of course, the larger it is the

more difficult it's going to be for any one senator to hold up legislation. you guys, of course, remember how joe manchin was able to hold up a lot of biden's agenda because of slim margins. that's what we're looking at in the senate. going to the house, it's still a toss-up at this point. we've seen republicans make some gains in pennsylvania and michigan. and we've seen democrats make some gains in new york. but there are a lot of uncalled races at this point from virginia to alaska. and remember, last time, we didn't get a call on the house until about two weeks after the election. so this is going to take some time. now, if the gop wins the house, the republicans unlock a process that will allow them to pass major legislation without having to get that 50-vote threshold in the senate but even if democrat it's win, republicans goring to have to find a way to work with them. remember, we're approaching yet another fiscal cliff that's going to require raising the debt ceiling. and if the 2017 tax expires many

americans are paying more taxes and that is not something anyone wants. andrew. >> emily, in terms of having a better understanding of where the house stands, the dow 1200 points, red sweep across the board. white house, senate, obviously, this has not been called at all. the house in particular seems to be up for grabs to some degree. at what point do you think that we will have a better sense of this? >> that's a really great question, andrew. because a lat of ot of the race it continues to be this close, the dems getting one, republicans getting one which we've seen all tonight. a lot of it comes down to california. there are a number of races there. a number of republicans trying to hold on to their seats with slim margins. a lot of these are seats that biden won in 2020. the question is did trump make gains in california as we've seen him make gains in other parts. if that is the case, yes, you

could certainly see a republican sweep. and potentially a wider margin for the next speaker to work with, and potential avoiding what we've seen in the last four years. >> emily, thank you for that. i'm curious from you guys what you think this indicates. do you think that the stock market, given where the prediction markets are, indicates that it's stock market thinks a sweep is happening? >> i think so. >> and the question is, if they don't get a sweep, we always talk about how the markets like to some degree a divided government? >> that's what we were -- >> would they like the house to be all democratic? >> i think the frustration has come in with the idea you can no longer get anything done in any way shape or form. >> be careful what you wish for, you know, gridlock is a time-tested positive but -- it's only 2%, andrew. who will knows with this from here. i don't know if he'd read too much into an embrace of a house and senate, just going crazy --

>> i mean, look -- you can look at other indicators, by the way. take to the side, dj -- >> look at gold. >> look at gold. >> look at the ten-year. >> i don't think there's certainty here. i don't think it's the case. >> there's certainty about the white house, there's certainty about the senate -- >> there's not certainty about a full republican -- if you do, what that means, i think there are big changes to come, immigration. any appointment you want to put in place -- >> anything you want you can get. >> any supreme court nomination he wants to put through, he can put through without any checks on it. >> even before that, regulatory stuff. >> regulatory stuff. >> we heard how he's going to be a dictator, what he meant by dictator on day one, don't cross the border. >> bring that s&p screen back where we had it. tesla up 15% this morning. >> that's weird. >> the question there is the

value -- i actually think it's possible that the value of whatever elon's relationship and closest to the president will be, whatever marketing he gets in all of that. >> this is -- we will see. >> i'll show you what it is. breaking news, nbc is calling the election for president trump. >> wisconsin pushes him up to 276. i think, again, this is something the markets and a lot of people have figured out. there's a process for viewing this at nbc news and going through it. andrew, to your point, on what to attempt from tesla and beyond, if you look atford and tesla, they're also higher because no competition from china. with elon, i wonder if there's a double-edged sword. the votes should be up 40%. >> evs -- >> there's a wave that's anti-ev because there's political place that anti-ev at the same time.

you'll have the drilling so you'll have lower oil prices. co combustion engines will do well. and rivian is down. does that mean rivian is pu punished by tesla? >> i don't know if you guys heard earlier, eunice yoon was on from beijing, and she was talking to brian and contessa how this is being viewed in china. she said elon musk is looked as a second vice president to donald trump. i wonder if there's massive push for chinese sales. china has about 40% -- there's about 40% of sales coming from china. and also good news for spacex.

>> yeah, some people think harris might have punished tesla. >> that's true. maybe the stock was under, as a result. >> the question is how is tesla punished during this period? do you have any idea about that? >> how she would do that? >> no, you're saying she was -- >> that was a concern ahead of time, that she might have punished -- >> that was a hangover, hangover on the stock. >> i don't know. >> okay. the great aryan emanuel, i needling him, obviously, today, i don't know where he is. i hope he's okay. i just said, man, the weather's just going to be horrible, you know. think about it. the economy is going to go straight into the toilet. that was my -- i just thought about that with tesla. so, think about that. >> i'm going to try. not too hard, but i'm going to try, though.

coming up on the other side of this, a lot more on "squawk box" this morning. continuing coverage of the 2024 election and the response in the market. you're looking at a lot of green on your screen this morning, as a result of where things stand. nbc calling it now for -- let's call it, president donald trump. right now, as we head to a break, check out some of the big decliners, though, this morning. we showed you some of the green before. here's some red for you. first solar, sunrun, enphase energy, all down big, double digits there. one of the reasons we were raising some questions on the move on the other end, tesla and some of the others, interesting that rivian was down. nonetheless, we're going to talk about this and so much more, over the next 3 1/2 hour. it's a special edition of "squawk box" the day after the election rolls on.

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♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. good morning, and welcome back to a very special edition

of "squawk box." if you are just waking up right now, nbc news now officially projecting that donald trump has won the presidency. dow futures are up, literally, right now, more than 1,000 points on the back of that news. you're looking at a lot of green on your screen. looks like the republicans have taken the senate. we're still waiting on the house. let's take a look right now, though, at tesla shares as well. those shares soaring this morning. 15%. we're also looking at shares of trump media right now. we'll show you that, up about 25%, maybe more. it is quite something. one of the things we were talking about, by the way, on that front, which i don't totally understand is, you would think, given the role that elon is going to play, either a boon to x or djt, to truth social, how it's a boon to both, i'm not

completely sure. >> it's not sirius xm, i don't understand. >> that part i'm still a little mystified about. >> at one point, they were almost equal in market value. djt has to go up another 10%, 15%. >> robert frank is here, folks. >> yes. market value of around $10 billion which is amazing considering djt had about $1.2 billion in revenue. the first half of the year, $60 million in losses the first quarter. >> they're very memy, a meme stock without the short position. >> also, you wonder what he does, does he sell his stake at this point? >> within the hour, we're going to talk -- >> -- it's a potential conflict of interest as you have cabinet secretaries and people who move into the administration. >> i mean, donald trump owned a hotel. >> no, i'm just saying it might be a good thing -- >> i don't think conflict of

interest is going to enter into donald trump's calculations about this because he's going to look at it and say i can own this business, i've owned the businesses before as president. >> i can see him saying i will sell it as a -- >> well, the other question is from an economic perspective. if you're a fortune 500 company that has not been willing to advertise on truth social for whatever reason. by the way, you haven't been willing to advertise fon x either. do you side, okay, the water's warm, i'm going in. i'd like to help myself. and does that help yourself? i don't know the answers. there have been a lot of reporting suggesting this is a great conflict. >> in the first trump administration, twitter was his messaging vehicle for white house communications. and that helped twitter. >> did it really help twitter? that was the ironic part of it. it helped them in terms of users. >> right. >> but it did not help them turn

to economics. >> no. the old twitter management banned him. that was hours later. >> hours later. >> i know, but he was banned a couple years, wasn't it? how long was it? >> it was a while. >> if you look at djt stock last night, it was up, and it was down. it's been all over the place. >> and the recession went down and prediction markets didn't move. it went down eight bucks. >> andrew, to your point is the most important one, yes, if he lost it goes to zero. but my question is, if he wins, what's the business plan that -- other than yes, it's a proxy for his popularity, we know he's even more popular today than yesterday. based on -- what do you build a business around that? is that his main form as president? we just don't know that? >> we knew the tax cuts were expiring at the end of the year. what does this set us up for? >> you guys are right, what is the legislative agenda.

we know it has to happen, by law, it has to happen, those taxes. one of the first orders of business will be those 2017 tax cuts he's vowing to extend. the individual tax cuts. under the extension, about three quarters of americans would get a tax cut. that compares to whether the tax cuts would expire. those benefits are top heavy and going to be expensive. nearly half the benefits of those making $450,000 a year or more. looked at another way, the top 1% of americans get a tax cut of 3.2%. an average of about $70,000. middle income households, they get a tax cut of about 1.2% or about $1,000. now, extending these cuts, it's expected to cost around $4 trillion in lost revenue. trump promised even more tax cuts on campaign. joe mentioned earlier, talked about eliminating social security taxes, overtime pay, tipping, getting rid of the current $10,000 cap on state and

local deductions. all of that added together, $10 trillion over the next ten years. even with the revenue, the tax plan would add 4 and $7 trillion to the deficit. obviously, a lot depends what happens to the house because if this is a biden n government, hs not going to get all of this, but this is going to be expensive. and eamon is probably going to have a better answer than me but there will be -- the deficit hawks in the house allow for the 4 to $7 trillion expansion of the deficit? >> that would be my question, though. if trump sticks with what he said -- last night -- this morning at 2:30 in the morning, he said promises made, promises kept. are there republicans in the house or the senate who are going to say no to what is going to be a very popular president when he comes in. >> we haven't seen a whole lot of republicans in trump's career

to date willing to stand up and go toe to toe to him. i don't think you'll see republicans say, you know what, trump is on the wrong side of this. i think trump gets what he wants. the out of party usually gets if trying to do stuff, i think democrats on capitol hill, in resistance of power might say we're going to fight some of this expansion. >> but they're not going to fight the expansions all in all. that would mean raising taxes. >> unless there's a democratic speaker of the house where they do control a lot of legislation on the floor and have to cut a deal, trump gets what he wants. >> no way trump could get s.a.l.t. for the bigger states? >> i agree. if the house are tight enough, there are ten or 12 republicans in blue states that have promised their constituents i will not vote for anything that doesn't eliminate, or at least

expand -- >> and then you've got democrats in blue states -- >> some. >> -- who abandon all of their principles about incoming distribution for government? >> except it does impact the middle income. >> the other thing about s.a.l.t., one thing you can do is adjust it for inflation. that $10,000, if it's kept, it's going to start applying to a much -- >> already is. >> -- probably does. this is going to expand to include a lot more that happens. is there on corporate taxes, are we down to 15%? >> i think that's -- unless that's isolated and again, it's hard to define, companies who manufacture "x" percent in america, it's not going to be a large group. >> does it stay at 21%? >> i think it's going to be hard, if he adds in all of this other stuff, especially s.a.l.t., social security, the social security part is the most

expensive expansion he's talked about. i think hard to say -- there will be people like larry kudlow that are going to push for that. >> how much, we talk about the governor of all of this even being the bond market. there was an op-ed, i don't know if you saw in "the wall street journal," actually in the physical paper this morning, talked about howl we we need tol with our debt and defincitdeficy way to get there is through growth. the issue of where the taxes really net out and much either the bonds market either speaks up or doesn't may have an impact on this. >> what we don't know how much appetite the bond market as for american deficits. we don't know what's extreme limit of american borrowing is here. we may be finding out here. if the market goes wiggly, that could be an indicator that the markets have gone too far.

>> we have that with the obama administration, people remember, we had this with obama, right? >> horrible, horrible, it's sending horrible signals right now, that 37 trillion is okay. and we can be 4.30 on the ten-year, that's horrible. >> super chill. >> i know, that's because we've got the reserve currency of the world and we're spoiled and it's a bad lesson. >> by the way, the ten-year is 13 basis points. that's not a small move. >> there's no incentive for a politician to cut spending. every single dollar that's spent has somebody on the other end who benefits, that's a political figure. the way to get out of this as larry says is through comeconom growth. >> when rick gives it four or five fs on funding. then you'll know. >> you won't know until that day. it's like you're walking up to a cliff. >> it happened in the uk two

years ago. it's happened with france. we've kind of been more immune. >> also as a huge country, you don't have bond vigilantes trying to take down the united states just because the scale of the thing would be prohibitive. >> right. >> but maybe. >> we also have a luxury of an extremely strong economy and strong stock market which is generating capital gains revenue. if you look at income taxes as a share of gdp, we're at sort of high-end of historical norm. even on the corporate tax rate, an andrew, you made a point, corporate tax rates were low, it's actually higher on three or four years that is because we're growing gdp at 3. >> you have to say 3, you have to be 3 plus. >> elon takes the 23% spending down and the economy stays strong, maybe we do start making

progress. >> sure, the biggest issue -- >> it's strong right now. >> but the second you knock the cost down, then you can create a spiral. >> would you settle for 2%, instead of 3% gdp? >> no, i would not. >> then you have a tax revenue problem, when you're cutting taxing and generating -- >> your point is very interesting. >> elon musk can't just walk in there and start giving pink slips to people. there are civil service protections for the federal workforce. there are also congress who have pet projects who like the federal government. >> things like the e.r.a. >> what, when did that happen? >> the reason the government is so bloated somebody somewhere wants it to be bloated and benefits from that. you have to take on those incentives, politicians don't have those incentives.

>> how does seeelon musk do tha? or is that adjudicated? >> you have to go through congress. they control the budgets for the agencies. you got to get congress passing a law, cutting it. >> if you resacrifice the dollar, and paul jones says -- >> inflation. >> and we don't -- we know we can't issue -- >> we just saw the power. >> eamon, robert, thank you, guys. >> that's what we've had in the last four years. all right, when we come back, continuing coverage of the 2024 election, and the response in the markets this morning. right now as we head to a break, let's take a look at the chip stocks. intel shares actually up by 5%. leaving people questioning what it would mean foinr tel if the chips act gets reversed.

nvidia up 1.5%. qualcomm, advanced and broadcom up as well. "squawk box" will be right back.

all right. if you are just waking up, nbc news projecting that donald trump has won the presidential election. of course, president trump declaring this himself last night. and the markets certainly getting there pretty quickly, too. joining us is axios co-founder mike allen. mike, i want to, first of all,

give you credit, you told us off camera, i think we reported on camera afterwards that you told us last week, you think by 5:00 a.m. we'd know what happened. you were absolutely right. what do you think of how this has played out? >> yeah, becky trump surprised across the country, across every demographic group. you know, going into this, a lot of people said, well there are two scenarios, right? a convincing harris win for a narrow trump path. a trump romp was not a scenario that most operatives, experts saw. how did he do it? one, massive movement with latino voters and improves his margins with voters that vice president harris won, but that he did much better with, including women, including independents. and by doing much better among those groups than people

expected. she weigh underperformed what she needed to do. he assembled this incredible victory where the blue wall crumbled, nbc and others called the program after the second of the three states in the blue wall, pennsylvania, wisconsin leading in michigan. add it up, and it's an incredible comeback, mix in a transformational figure in american history. one of the pivotal american figures ever. >> yeah, part of this is kamala harris underperformed, i think, in every county relative to joe biden four years ago. but the other part of this was, trump was appealing to a much broader spectrum of people. he brought in people like elon musk. he brought in rfk jr. and tulsi gabbard. >> he did not perform underin

three. >> that was only in a few places, right, mike? >> yeah. this was geographic, this was demographic. look at the issues. it turns out that the issue of immigration and inflation, the two "i"s were very powerful, border and prices, real world issues. every day on "squawk," we looked at the data, two thirds to 70% of americans who said america was on the wrong track. that sure looked insurmountable. and it wasn't showing up in a 50/50 poll.% a presidential election astonishing. >> right. >> week after week, month after month, barely moved, but now we see she had unbelievable headwinds and americans were saying they -- >> mike, phone ann salter's poll until four years is one i'm

looking forward to, the fbi, what happened -- do you know? i guess wisconsin, that was iowa, that must be impossible, that's an embarrassment, isn't it, again? >> it was at outlier poll. and this is for your viewers, axios, on "squawk," we take the long view. and that is -- one of the earliest things i learned as a political reporter that any given poll can be wrong. don't hang your hat on any given poll. but every poll isn't wrong. and we see that again here, look, former president trump was ahead again and again. was in the margin. so, we rightly said it was a coin flip election. but if you look back, he was slightly ahead in swing state after swing state, and now, it looks like he may carry all seven of them. he's leading in the three where they pull him all in. >> mike, i want to thank you. we've got -- i'm sorry. >> okay.

>> we've got roger here at the table. i want to bring him into the conversation, roger altman here, at 6:00 a.m., just about 6:00 a.m., founder and senior chairman at evercorp. good morning, you're a supporter of kamala harris. i'm so curious what your takeaway of this election is, as you look at what's happening here, how much of her is a repudiation of her personally, how much of it is a repudiation of the last four years. how much is a repudiation of the left, if that's to be said? and what kind of soul-searching or introspection do you think happens on a morning like this? >> well, do we have four or five hours? >> we have three. as it happens, we have three. >> well, first of all, i think you have to acknowledge that trump is a gifted political athlete. i mean, he just is. and anybody who tries to say

differently, i think, is just wrong. i'm not his biggest fan, you have to acknowledge that, secondly, the country is shifting to the right. on exit polls, 20% of voters identified -- >> is it the country shifting or the democratic party that ran so far left? >> well, the result i think is the same. in other words, i would think it's a part -- it's some of each. i mean, if you look at -- for example, and mike was just talking about it the issues that dominated. the top two were the economy, et cetera speespecially cost of lig and immigration. abortion, pretty far down the list. democrats would have expected that to be different, i think. and trump, if dominated on voters who cared most about the economy and voters who cared most about immigration. so, i think the country has shifted to the right. by the way, we're going to see a

very isolationist approach from donald trump which historically shifts to the right. but also it's a repudiation. >> now come no one knew there was a shift. we had arthur brooks on, every book he's written, one of his main premises the country is center right. barack obama could have been elected twice by a senate right country. bill clinton easily elected by a senate right. i even think joe biden after the first elected -- you can't attribute to a right leaning country. i just think it's center right all the time. what becky said. look at some of the basic tenets of far left at this point, roger. defunding police. >> defunding that would not be democrat. >> the country hasn't changed. the democratic party has changed. >> let's get into that. i would just argue there is a conservative movement in the

country. >> look at immigration, 13 million illegal immigrants. >> at the same time, the american perception or voter perception of the national version of the democratic party is really negative right now. there's no two ways about that. and let's be honest, harris was not a strong candidate. she just wasn't. >> now you tell us. >> well -- >> you didn't tell us that last week. >> well, wait, i wasn't here last week. >> i think we've talked for a long time on this podcast about how -- >> a lot of lipstick on that candidate. i mean, that's a bad expression to use in this case. >> i mean, joe -- >> but we dressed her up in mainstream media. >> just being straight here. i expect a sweeping victory like this from trump? no, i thought it was going to be a three-week glow. now that we've seen the magnitude of victory, we cannot think of anything else. days ago, i would say she was a

reasonably good candidate. >> you saw her not answer questions. >> we can make a judgment now that she wasn't a strong candidate. and trump ran a campaign, give him credit, and he said this in this madison square garden rally, the famous question, are you better off than four years ago, and the american people resoundingly said no. >> right. >> and that proved -- >> so what do the democrats do? do they continue to what they've been, which is kind of labeling themselves as the party of resistance and going down that path? or do they say, okay, how do we remake ourselves and try to reconcile what we're hearing from the american people? >> well, first of all, we have to wait and see who wins the house. i think that's going to be a really big factor. it would seem a little improbable to me that the democrats win the house. but it looks like it's going to come down to five seats in california. in terms of who has 218. and if the democrats win the

house, then i think the dynamic will be different than if they'd been swept across the board. >> so, they would then -- you think the house would, at that point, say no to everything that donald trump proposes, or do they find ways where there's common agreement. >> i think it depends on the issue? >> immigration, let's say. >> if the democrats are smart, they work out a solution to immigration. after all, they ended up supporting the langford compromise. >> right. >> especially if trump is supporting it, probably has to be tweaks to get them to support it but democrats would be smart to get on board with that, because the country wants it. in terms of your question, i might be wrong, i think it's a slow, bigger and bloody internal process from the democratic party. >> and you think the rebuild is about personnel, personality, or do you think it's a rebuild

around different policies. >> i think it's the brand. >> what did gary say -- >> he suggested that 2028 was going to be -- >> he said if the democrats -- >> listen, the democrats are getting killed, my two cents on cultural issues. why they have done so poorly like, for example, in noncollege voters. there's so much evidence it's cultural more than economics. although in this election, it was not. >> when you say culture, just define that for folks, what do you mean by that? >> you mean men in sports, things like that? >> well that type of things, transgender thissues. the progressive side of the party. i just think if the democrats don't get to a more -- it's not just centrist, but it's centrist

culturally position, they're going to have a hard time. if you look at the results, mike allen was just talking about it trump did much better among women than democrats thought he would. last night, earlier in the evening what i kept hearing was the gender gap for harris, in her favor among women is about the same as it is for trump among men. the vote is effectively women, she'll win. it turned out the gender gap for women is much smaller. >> even nmore interesting, if yu just saw it, there are split voters on one side of the abortion issue, voting in favor of some of these ballot initiatives in certain states to allow abortions to take place than were voting for trump at the same time. which i thought was actually a very sort of unconventional thought in terms of what was happening. that's not something i expected. >> although, he said many times he would veto a national -- he

said he wants each state -- do you think it was a mistake, and she finally talked a little bit towards the end, talking about what she planned to do rather than the fascist, rapist, nazi, hitler, dictator. i mean, that's our president now, a pfascist, rapist, nazi, hitler, dictator. >> except that's not the view of the american people. >> that's what i mean, why keep going with it. >> there's going to be a lot of bitterness or bloodletting -- >> don't say bloodletting or they'll take it out of context. >> he said it's going to be ugly. >> the aoc wing of the maparty,o they double-down? >> well, they always double-down. >> so, that's the next question, if you think the party is closer to the center, does it actually? or do you actually think that

some of the folks who are seriously on the left say it was not left enough? >> well, they are going to say that because, my observation, my always say it right, at least in recent years. but i don't think that's where the party is going to end up. i think this is a repudiation, in many respects of the progressive side of the party. even though harris herself did not run a sanders-like or aoc-like campaign. at the raura of the party is lie that. >> the stock market is moving in a big way. you represent and work with lots of fortune 500 companies. if you're a ceo today, running a business or investor today, do you say this thing is going to rip as a result of this. all sorts of deals are going to be made, you advise mergers, it's going to open up? or do you say between inflation that could come from tariffs and

other things that it's going to be much more complicated? >> well, i think you're bullish, first of all, antitrust alone, you're going to see a sea change, for anything in the community. deregulation in terms of energy we're going to see a decontinuation of the tax cuts. for most folks in the business community, thinking about business and not politics, you're going to be bullish. how long that lasts i think that depends on precisely what trump does. does he actually go after mass deportation? does he compromise the independence of the fed? does he really put on 10 to 20% on tariffs? >> his speech at 2:30 in the morning seemed to be one of unity and positive outlook on things. that may be part of the reason you're seeing the react continue

in the market where is they are. but it definitely did -- it seemed like a positive upbeat message. >> he didn't mean it. >> it did. we'll see. i mean, this is also the same sort of message that he gave back in 2016. but, brought everybody out on set. and it brought everybody out on the stage. and there was a very positive feel to it. >> listen, as mike allen just said, he is really an important historical figure. he's only the second person in american history to regain the presidency. this is a huge victory, right? so -- it's stunning. >> sweepy. could get even sweepier. >> we'll see with the house. >> the popular vote -- >> nobody thought that would happen. by the way, up until 10:00, 11:00, "the new york times" needle had harris winning the popular vote. >> it's by more than 5 million in his favor. >> it's stunning.

>> i just want to ask you one last question, i know they're going to kill us because we have to scoot -- >> we've only got four hours. >> one of the questions i've ask a million times, they talk about leadership, character, and all of this kind of stuff, what does this is a to you about that? >> well -- >> no i'm just curious. by the way, i think a lot are probably glad they didn't take your advice. >> i'm trying to be -- honestly -- >> sonnenfeld wanted them to prop up kamala, it's probably a good idea they did. >> look. on a morning like this for me personally, by the way is a morning of introspection. 100%. that's what this is, you are not waking up this morning, if you have any skepticism about former president trump and what that candidacy will do. if you're not thinking to yourself, what is happening here and trying to understand it and trying to appreciate what you may not have understood. by the way, i think it's probably true of republicans to

try to understand. that's the point. one of the reasons i'm asking the question is that. so if you are trying to be introspective around this issue of leadership and character and all of that, how do you process that? >> it's a two-part response. it's a complicated question. >> okay. >> in sort of a long lens of history. trump is a strong man, however you want to define that. historically speaking, he's a strong man. at this moment, voters like that. and a lot of people like that. and i think that while many people in the business community in private didn't cotton to trump. you have to just respect what he achieved here. and the american people looked through all the craziness about trump. they obviously did. and they wanted the type of leadership he represents. bill clinton's famous comment, the voters like strong and wrong

more than weak and right. i'm not saying that is wrong. but that was clinton's comment but that played out right here. if you're the business community, you have to respect it. you may not like him personally, but you have got to respect him. >> roger altman, thank you. thank you for joining us. >> don't run off yet, let me just do this -- it's just after 6:00 a.m. on the east coast, you're watching a special edition of "squawk box" on cnbc, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we never lose our sense of humor. i almost did a bill clinton imitation of another one of his most famous quotes, i just couldn't do it. i just couldn't bring myself -- there are times i do. i know you think of it that i don't. >> but you don't do everything that occurs to you? >> the big news. all right. if you're just waking up and tuning in, nbc news now projecting that donald trump has

won the presidency, the state of wisconsin was called about a half hour ago. and the gop at this point is taking control of the senate, while the seats in the house, it's still too early to call. the futures are close to session highs. it looks like more than it is, i guess. i mean, it is 1200 points. it's 2% now because the kow has been on such a run. treasury is, as you might imagine, maybe you didn't put two and two together, we will potentially do some spending and deficit spending, 4.45 tariffs, bitcoin, regulatory may be with donald trump. bitcoin, closing all-time highs. and gold and oil, too, all of the markets are kind of trump crazy, which you saw in anticipation, when things were looking good. gold is actually down. and we have a big lineup coming

up, including call-out groups. david blummenstein. and kyle bass, he's a little bit of a republican, and lee cooperman coming on, many more. bank stocks sharply higher this morning. let's bing in gerhard cassidy, capital markets large cap bank. democrats today. roger, we've got -- >> take the win. >> i'm taking it. >> and with humanity, let's try to move forward altogether. >> i'm trying, but we do have a lot of people, it's a tough -- >> that's what you need to -- on a morning like today, we all are going to come together and try to figure out how to work side by side for the next four years. >> if the other outcome had happened, i'm not so sure. >> we're all trying to be the

best people we can be. >> i'm trying my best. i'm trying my best. it's hard. here we go, gerhard. >> hi, joe, how are you? >> how are you? >> good, sir. >> at this point, tell us, you know, have you done anything? are you going to do anything? what do you think? >> joe, we've been very optimistic and bullish on the bank stocks all year. and last night's win by trump makes us -- continues with that bullishness, because as you heard from roger, we're going to see a real change in antitrust. and we're going to see a change in banking regulation as well. and that's going to be positive for the banks. you're going to see a few people probably be removed from the regulatory agencies like the consumer financial protection bureau for one. the occ head is the temporary head. so the administration will

probably but in a more pro-banker. so the outcome from the banks from a regulatory standpoint we think is quite positive. >> yes, we have had people on, it's kind of weird, there are positives and negatives. for regional banks, we had bob diamond on the other day who was supporting vice president harris. and yet, he made the case how great it would be for small and regional banks if trump were to prevail. so, it's odd. do you think it's a good time now, really good time, for consolidation in small banks and regional banks, gerard? >> it's a good point, joe, because when you look back to the early '80s, we had over 18,000 banks and trusts in this company, consolidation has worked over years. linear, we're down to 4500 today. but they've been stalled over the last couple of years i think this will certainly, i think, support having this administration and the people --

and the key problem being who will be you know, advising him in his cabinet. and if they're pro-business, i think you'll see more consolidation. the other important point, joe, fundamentally speaking, is that if the economy does pick up and reducing more m and a activity around the country, not just in banks, commercial loan growth has been very weak for the banks. and i think what you're going to see now is strength in commercial lending in 2025. which if the yield curve continues to steepen, which we expect it will, revenue growth of the banks could surprise to the upside in 2025, through the stronger loan growth and the steepening of the curve. >> gerard, are you concerned about -- i mean, leading up to this election, we've been talking about fed independence and, you know, we're going to get back to reporting on the fed, i can guarantee it pretty soon, as soon as we get through this election. but what do you see happening there? do you need to tell clients or

your colleagues, what's going to happen with -- i don't know, with jay powell? will there be pressure to keep rates too low? or will inflation be rekindled? should ween inflating our way out of this debt? >> it's a good point. i think it's a too early to tell. i'd be surprised if the fed moves with independence. we've seen pressure on the fed for years. you might remember, you know, under president nixon, the pressure he put under the fed back then. and it did rekindle as you recall reinflation in the late '70s and early '80s and cost arthur burns his job as chairman of the fed. again, there will be pressure and there has been pressure. but joe, you bring up a good point about inflation, we've always believed we're not in the recession camp, even though you touched on it a moment ago. the inverted yield curve in 2022, everybody was calling for

recession in '23, obviously it never happened. as we go forward, we have to be careful about the inflation re-emerging. the economy is very active today and we have to make sure it doesn't move too quickly or too much. >> very good, gerard, appreciate you coming on this morning. insight into this. we're watching bank stocks and smaller ones, thanks. >> you're welcome, thank you. coming up, a lot more of our continuing coverage this morning of the 2024 election. and the response in the market. a lot of green arrows on your screen. as former president donald trump regains the white house officially. pollster and political strategist frank luntz is going to join us next. we'll talk to him about what's happened. and where the country may be headed. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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luntz. we've been talking to frank now for many months in the days and weeks leading up to what's been a historic moment, frank. and before we even just get into it, i want to get your biggest takeaway, and maybe perhaps surprise, given i'm not sure, as we've been talking that this was not the outcome i think on the electoral college map, but maybe around the popular vote that you were expecting. >> and when we'd know which was not supposed to be until saturday. >> so how come you didn't compliment me four years ago. >> or eight years ago, when you said hillary clinton will be the next president? i don't know, frank, i think a lot of what you've been saying the last couple of weeks, i've disagreed with. i just have. i disagree if you say kamala would have changed a few things she would have won. i disagree, the country was not ready. i don't think she was ever in the lead. go ahead. >> frank, i'm curious, on a

morning like this, to the extent anybody who is hopefully thinking about this is trying to be introspective about where they were right, where they were wrong, how do you think about it? >> i think the debate didn't matter. and that's the single thing that bothers me the most. >> not even the cat eating everyone was crying about, frank? >> no, it's a surprise to me that the public and, joe, you, that it didn't bother you. and it doesn't bother the public. but the public has spoken. and what's impressive about this is that donald trump is able to survive an onslaught of criticism through much of this campaign and not only survive but thrive. that he's going to win the popular vote which i did not expect. that he's going to win all the swing states which nobody knew. that in fact, not only is he winning, but he's bringing a senate with him and likely a house with him. this is significant.

>> so what does that say -- frank, as anybody who's been in this business a long time, what does that say to you about either the strength of trump as a candidate and as a communicate ator, the weakness, perhaps, of vice president harris as a candidate and communicator? does it say something more broadly about the country and policy and the way they're thinking about this, the different parties? how do you break that down? >> it's all three. andrew, you're correct in all three cases. that donald trump's support was so intense that it did not matter what people said about him. it did not matter what happened at his rallies. it did not matter his debate performance. they were going to stay with him because they believe in him. and they're committed to him. and that is half the country. harris' campaign, in their inability or unwillingness to define exactly what they would do in the first hours, days,

weeks and months, her unwillingness to level with the american people and explain why some of the issues have changed demonstrated what a weak candidate she was. and in the end, it would have been to be someone else, not her, to beat trump. >> well, frank, there's going to be a lot of recriminations in the democratic party, probably starting with fwbiden and harri. but my question is do you think biden, therefore, should have stuck in this? >> no. >> would have had a different outcome? >> no, should have had a vote. the public had a right to choose. this is the first candidate for president, other than when you have, god forbid, an assassination, she had never put herself to the test. she failed in 2020. this is probably the most important thing for viewers. her one chance to run for president, she'd done such a horrible job, and that she didn't improve after four years. but in the end, it's also the

public's disdain, for insecurity on the border across the country. and their demand in the last four years that they did not succeed, that they failed on the inflation and affordability. and that the public did not want four more years of it, in the end -- >> so -- >> in the end, it was the public saying enough, with an exclamation point and all caps. >> when you think about what happens next, in terms of the politics in washington, it does look like we may be headed towards a sweep. what policies get enacted, what don't, what acts as a governor or not on that. i know we've talked a lot about the business community oftentimes saying they like divided government. i'm not sure that's necessarily the case given we actually have the dow that's going to open up 1250 points higher right now. >> yeah. and the fact is, they look at

trump's policies they were assuming that harris had a good shot. that's one of the reasons why the stock market is doing so well right now, is that they know that tax policy is going to be different. that growth policy is going to be different. the question is, where do they stand on tariffs? because that's going to be a significant dispute, in washington, both in the white house and in the congress. and what happens with that. so -- >> do you think all the economists -- frank, do you think -- look, you heard kamala harris say it -- by the way, i repeated it, nobel prize winning economist who all said that trump's economy was going to become a problem, even elon musk saying at certain points he thought there would be temporary hardship. it will be interesting to see what happens over the next four years. clearly, the american public did not look at that and say either they thought that was accurate or that they cared, right? >> and neither did the business community. >> correct. >> and they may have said one

thing a week ago, but they're saying something completely different right now, and they vote how they're invested how they're committing more dollars and why the market is going to open up so much higher. that's their statement they agree with what happened. my only warning, we're still undivided. even with republicans gaining a clear control of the senate. and keeping control of the house with a couple, maybe three, four additional seats, we're still an evenly divided country, maybe 51/49. and i'm hoping that this ugliness and this gotcha politics can somehow subside so that we can once again have these really strong emotional fights, and do so with respect and civility, with decency, that we haven't seen in the last, frankly, in the last eight years. >> if you -- frank, if you were running -- we've got to run, but if you were running the dnc right now, and you were trying

to be introspective to the degree you could be, what would you be telling them they need to rethink? >> i'd be giving them three names, cory booker, wes moore and mitch landrieu. all brilliant political people that have amazingly strong records and know how to communicate the values of the american people. either of those three people could have beaten donald trump. not saying they would have, but could have. and that's what the democratic party needs. people who understand and come from the community and know how to communicate. >> i know this one name is not on the list that i thought might be -- >> -- schhapiroshapiro. >> -- shapiro, from pennsylvania. >> and maybe gretchen whitmer, the democratic nominee for vice president, he's not on that list. >> frank luntz, great to talk to you this morning, appreciate it. look forward to talking to you very soon, thanks. tech stocks on the move this morning. tesla shares are surging in fact

they're up by more than 13% right now. you've also got apple and alphabet higher. apple just narrowly. up and joining to us talk about it gene munster, he's deepwater managing partner. gene, we're talking about the new administration and we have not talked about much on the regulatory overhang and what that might look like for some of these tech stocks. i think people are assuming it will be a very different regulatory overhang. but at the same time, the tech stocks were targeted by the first trump administration. so how do you clear this out? >> i think you put403 factors together. first,tariffs, that piece. on regulatory front this is positive for big tech, no question about it, smaller government means smaller

regulatory influence. this has a direct impact today on google. a direct positive outcome on apples, the probability that they can maintain that lucrative, $15 billion search agreement with google. that's about 20% of apple's operating income, keeping that increased. and the probability of big tech able to acquire companies like data bricks and anthropic. these are cornerstone, anointed a.i. companies that would be coveted by some of the big tech. i think that probably just went up. so, i think when you put the mix together, at least on the political side, this is a positive day, with the one outlier, of course, being meta. trump's comments back in march that facebook is the enemy of the people. i think that basically reduces the probability that we're going to see some sort of a tiktok ban on -- so, i think that piece of

regulation in tiktok, i think that declined dramatically today. but overall, becky, i think that this is -- on the regulatory side, it's most promising for big tech. >> and, gene, you had the ftc with lina khan almost working hand in hand with the eu, with some of these big regulatory reaches. apple has faced so much trouble with the eu in particular. just what we've heard this week about what could be coming from the eu or expected to come from the eu. how does this change if the united states regulators aren't working along with the eu? will they stand up to these companies? will it change the european strategy? >> i don't think it's going to much impact on how europe is approaching things. but, again, the probability that something happens on a regulatory front in the u.s., let's just kind of look for one piece that has been the center of a bull's-eye which is what apple is doing on their app

store. eu has recorded a lot of changes related to policies around steering. apple was an important case. but there's still a lingering concern what happens with the tape rate on the app store. i think the eu historically has said precedent. i don't believe that is going to be the indication at least for the next four yearyear. i think in the case of apple, it could rest better tonight knowing there's probably not that pressure coming from the eu. again, i think that this is just a march step forward. why this time is so important is because a.i., i think, we're still early in the phases. ultimately, i believe this is going to be more impactful than what the internet is. and have a less regulatoried environment is advantageous. >> can we talk about tesla

stock, we've positive posited w may be with elon musk, could even play a role in this administration. what does it mean for shares? better regulatory look, maybe coming from china and other places but tesla has, probably, reportedly, roughly 40% of its sales from china. and the tariffs may not be making many friends in china? >> i believe tesla is up today because of emotion. the emotion of tesla investments, their leader, of course, is elon. we just had a big bet that paid off. we quickly look to what's the next big bet in probabilities. and the next big bet for tesla is around economy. and forget what's going to happen with evs and tax credit. what matters when it comes to trump and elon musk is trump's ability to make is easier for musk to advance what they're

doing around autonomy. around the tech staff to use less lidar, for example. it's going to be more challenging than the technology piece. that took a change for the robo tax that could add 20% to tesla business in the next five to ten years. >> gene, if you look at rivian, it's down. what's the thought there? >> rivian doesn't have the autonomy story to it. when it comes, again, the tax credit piece, who knows what's going to happen with that. trump's kind of adjusted his message more recently on that. the reason rivian is down and tesla is up, elon has shown he can make a big bet and be successful. the next bet is autonomy. i think his relationship with trump will change the relationship between tesla and nhtsa. that's going to be positive for

the economy. >> gene, thanks a lot. coming up next, a lot more on special coverage of the election. we're going to look at what the election of donald trump means for his assets and net worth. that's coming up. robert frank is at the table. we've got very big guests on the way throughout the next upcole of hours. don't go anywhere, "squawk box," the day after the election. donald trump, the next president of the united states. we're coming right back after this.

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just lady and the trump, right? robert frank is here. nbc news, meanwhile, profiting that donald trump has won the presidency. robert frank joins us now with a look at trump's net worth. we don't need to tell them. >> it's going up by the minute. >> yes. premarket. >> donald trump will take office as the wealthiest pr president-elect ever in history. worn $7 billion. right now, more than two-thirds of that is from his social media company trump media and technology, djt. his stake worth over o-- actualy his take is worth $5 billion. the stake is $7 billion.

that stock is up 70 prts% opera now. the president and vice president are lamprgely exempt. he put it in a blind trust in the first term. a trump organization that's now one with his son eric or djt, the media company or his family's crypto adventure liberty financial. this time around, trump will not have trump international hotel. you might remember all of the controversy around that, he sold that for $375 million back in 2022. the trump organization is teaming up with the saudi real estate firm for new projects in o oman, jeddah and tehran. sand aing unlike most politicians, president trump didn't get into politics for profit, because he's fighting for the people of this country and wants to make america great again.

but there will be all kind of discussion, criticism, about the first president ever to have a publicly traded company whose investors unless over a certain percentage are not disclosed and can add directly to his net worth. remember the emollients clause. all of that comes into play. because of foreign investors can invest in that company. so, ironically, the publicly traded company which you assume would be more transparent than a private one would expose him to more potential conflicts. >> right. >> he could choose to sell. >> now would be a good time to sell. >> yeah. >> that's like you're -- you know, that's when the ceo sells and says i was just -- i was just in one of those programs i didn't do -- and happened to sell right at the top. >> estate planning reasons. >> yeah. >> this could be because i'm going into the white house. he can use the conflict of

interest as a reason to sell it. >>s as an expert of the trump organization, saying we did the right thing around the first time, we still got credit, why do we need to this time. i think to take those precautions and put it in a blind trust even though they knew what was in the blind trust. he may sell shares to joe's point, for economic reasons. but i don't think the conflict of interest issues there are. >> meanwhile, the congress is like the wild, wild west. >> yeah. >> it's what they can do. famous people in congress, right? don't we have -- >> the power. >> yeah, famous, powerful people, seems like they are able to at least have some inclination of is wwhat's happe with public policy and basing trades on it. doesn't that seem like that's sort of happening? it's possible. >> talking about how we need to

avoid this. >> i know. >> i don't think that's going to change in the next four years. >> once again, three branches of the government we got to work on, the supreme court, too? crazy stuff going on. >> questions. >> they got me calling you by your last name. thanks, frank. >> you're welcome, frank. >> thanks, frank. >> you're welcome. let's take a look at the markets right now is marta norton, empower chief investment strategist. marta, you laid out some cases in how you thought the markets might trade under each of them. it looks clear this morning this is going to be a red sweep. we don't know for sure about the house but it's down to a matter of seats at this point. what would you be telling investors at this point? >> well, listen, what's interesting is the question of uncertainty has been taken off the party. we're seeing not market

reaction, cap rallies small caps. and the trump trade. it's interesting to see it come to fruition at this moment. i think one of the considerations for investors is that perspective has to be longer term. there's a lot of emotion and euphoria based on markets today. i don't think that necessarily means that markets are going to trade in teurpitudety. >> when you look at market, one year, two years? >> i think that depends on the twin investor. if you look at the enduring trends that are alive. we have economic standing that is soft landing that means rates are coming down that is bullish for equities i think that's the enduring trade. but the real question mark here is how much those rates come

down and what in the market that is sampling. i think that's somewhat an open question today because we are weighing the consequences of a soft landing. and trump policy coming together. so, i think there's some element here where potentially, we don't see the same kind of rotation, that potentially we were anticipating earlier. >> what do you mean? the expectation that rates were going to really collapse and would cause massive support. we had that 50-basis point cut from the federal reserve that could throw a lot of enthusiasm for equities. and now it's not clear that rates are going to come down quite to that same degree. >> okay. let's assume that the house goes for the republicans and that this is a full-on sweep. that means donald trump can go ahead and do all of the things he's been promising, the things he wants to do. >> right. >> how did that impact markets? let's start with tariffs? let's start with taxes? how do those policy changes that he's laid out, what will that

mean for investors? >> well, i think, first on the taxes standpoint. so, if we do have a red sweep, that really gives some room to move on the tax promises. there's both the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and then there's also orientation towards the next producers. companies that are producing here in the u.s. that really favors the small side of things that's why you're seeing the russell 2000 reaction that were have today. when you're talking about tariffs, it is the flip side of that, tariffs that weighs on economic growth and that causes the longing of the curve to have higher rates that's actually not quite as positive as small caps. so that's where there's that kind of push/pull between the different policies that are going to impact long term. >> the tariffs question, again, we don't know how this will play out. >> that's right. >> trump advisers tell us it's a

negotiating tool and just going to try to get more manufacturing here in the united states. >> that's right. >> but those are some of the issues, if he follows through not just on extending the tax cuts which everyone assumes will happen extending the to not ta security, to not tax the litany of other areas where he said he would stop taxing some of these things, do you think that has implications in the bond market? we do see the ten-year this morning at 4.47, yesterday, 4.30, that's a 17-point basis point move. >> i think that's a critical question. you've seen wall street analysis look at that. the deficit wasn't expected to come down under a harris administration either. it was expected to expand, but certainly far more so. and the tax cuts and the additional promises you're laying out are part of that expectation. and so the question is, you know, is there a bond vigilante trade that comes in at some

point and kind of pushes the political will to address some of the deficit issues? i think that is a big question for the bond market today. >> okay. martha, thank you for joining us this morning. >> my pleasure. coming up, much more of cnbc's continuing coverage of the market reaction to the 2024 elections. i guess it is more than one, right? you're watching them all, including the surge in bitcoin hitting 75,000 at one point earlier today. what the changes on capitol hill will mean for the future of will mean for the future of crypto so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified "squawk box" is coming right back. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com.

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take a look at crypto this morning.

we have already a few times. here with us now, getting after it, relentlessly, right, anthony pompliano, founder and ceo of professional capital management. you're always in a positive mood, even though crypto isn't always positive, it is this morning. you expect new highs on bitcoin? >> new all time highs, couldn't have written a better script hitting a new all time high on the night of the election. one of the most important things is we have a bitcoin president, president trump ran on a campaign point he was going to protect bitcoin and you saw bitcoin's price reflect having somebody so- pro bitcoin win th white house. >> you think this is the real donald trump on bitcoin, that he's been for the last year and a half? >> i think he's surrounded by enough people who really understand this. people like bitcoin magazine ceo david bailey, many others who spent the time with him.

one of the interesting things is, whether he believes many bitcoin or not is a moot point. what is he going to do? if he's going to protect it and not be abrasive, that's a win. if he creates the bitcoin strategic reserve, that's a huge tailwind and will kick off this global game theory. if the united states starts to lean in and welcome bitcoin and say, hey, this is an asset we want on a balance sheet, other countries have to respond and the interesting thing about bitcoin is that it has been a bottoms up adoption story. individuals adopted it first. now we see corporations and financial institutions. but the central banks are some of the biggest buyers of gold. gold is up huge. so if central banks buy bitcoin and put it in their reserves, that would be a massive tailwind for bitcoin. >> even short of a sovereign wealth fund or anything like that, you -- andrew, we haven't talked about gary gensler in light of what's going on, have we? >> he's not going to have a job? >> you tell me. >> of course he's not going to have a job. what do we need to talk about here? >> you know who's not going to be s.e.c.? >> i can tell you who is not

going to run the ftc, i can tell you who is not going to -- i can go through the list. it is going to be a house cleaning, obviously. >> mark cuban is not going to be -- if he wanted to be at this point -- you think gensler is gone. >> i think whenever a new president comes in, they're going to play musical chairs with all the regulatory organizations. i think we're on the precipice of an economic explosion. we have somebody coming in, very business friendly, he is surrounded by people very business friendly, they have some radical ideas in a positive way in terms of what they can do to cut taxes, drive gdp growth, use the country's balance sheet to try to close the deficit gap. and so i don't expect them to be able to do everything they're saying they can do. when you're on the campaign trail, you say a lot of stuff. if they can accomplish 50% of -- >> which 50%. which are the ones you think are most important and maybe most likely to get put through? >> i think actually if you look at what the american people did last night, they issued a mandate. they said we want lower

inflation, affordable housing, secure bordborder, we want a government that doesn't engage in more war, we want to feel safe, secure and strong at home. if you're the president coming in, and you can say how do i get inflation down and under control, if you look at home affordability, start to deregulate and allow people to build more housing in this country. >> the problem is not giving people $25,000 to say you can go ahead and buy a house, the problem is creating more supply? >> for a minute i thought you were pitching the inflation trade. you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. all the things he's going to do with tariffs and cutting taxes -- >> all good for bitcoin. >> good for bitcoin because of inflation. you say he's going to bring inflation down. i don't know which part of you i believe. >> i think there is a difference between skyrocketing inflation and currency debasement. and the currency debasement is why bitcoin goes up. inflation is usually -- >> it is the same thing, isn't it? >> it is not in the sense that you can have the currency continue to debase and lose purchasing power without having

that inflation number spike to 9%. i think that's what we really saw here is we saw inflation spike over 9% during the biden administration. >> what do you think it should be? 5%, 6%, 7%? >> i think the inflation rate is not 2%. it is higher than that. but not going to be 5 to 10%. >> do you think the fed goes along with that? if they start to see inflation picking back up, wouldn't the fed then raise rates? wouldn't that have curbed -- wouldn't that curb inflationary -- economic expansion? >> one of the biggest questions i think we're going to face as a country is how involved should the president and the executive branch be involved in monetary policy. donald trump said he thinks -- >> you think inflationary stuff and then saying we're going to keep rates going down, down, down, interest rates going down, down, down is the right policy? >> i don't think you can keep rates going down if inflation is spiking. so i think that's where you get a lot of complexity and it is not as clear in terms of when inflation is spiking, what you do to get it down. >> by the way, the bond market

isn't paying attention to the fed lowering rates at this point anyway. not at the long end or the short end. the ten-year is back up at 447. there is only so much that any administration or any federal reserve can do. >> one thing that is really interesting about policy, you draw the perfect playbook. you're, like, hey, this is the theory of what could happen. that plan meets the real world. you can try to do -- >> like mike tyson. you can do all the things until someone punches you in the face. what if the person punching you in the face is the bond market. >> it is a complex system. you say i'm going to get home affordability down. as soon as you do that, inflation spikes somewhere else. you have to try to address that. you're constantly -- >> incentivizing people to build more housing supply. >> one question with housing supply is how much is the president and the national government able to do that versus local governments. one thing i say is for your investment portfolio, the federal reserve chairman is more important than the president. for many americans who is on the local city council may be more important than who is in the white house. >> you know what we haven't talked about, we got to run, the

fed chair. >> we did a little. earlier. >> but do we really think that powell stays? >> i don't know. does the fed stay independent? >> i don't think jay powell is going on anywhere. >> i don't think jay powell is planning on going anywhere. i think it is hard to remove jay powell. there has been talk about -- >> nixon and arthur bernson, h.w. blames his loss on greenspan. you mentioned mike tyson. he's the most ripped -- >> i mentioned mike tyson. >> you mentioned mike tyson, yeah, sorry. have you seen him? he's the most ripped 58 -- and he's going to fight jake paul. he may be more ripped than i am as a 58-year-old. it is just after 7:00 a.m. now, 7:01 on the east coast this morning. you're watching a very special edition of "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick. and nbc news is projecting officially now that donald trump has won the presidency.

that call coming in around 5:30 a.m. eastern time this morning. nbc news also projecting the republicans will take control of the senate, many house races have yet to be called. we are only half done here, though, on "squawk box" today. we got a huge lineup of guests still to come to discuss all this, break it down and make sense of the election results. and what it means for our economy, the stock market and so much more. we should say the stock market is ripping this morning, the dow up about 1200 points. we got david rubenstein on the list, kyle bass, just a whole litany of great guests to discuss all this. treasury yields right now, if we flip the board around, show you the ten-year and two-year, you're looking at 4.469 on the ten-year, the two-year, down 4.2 at the moment. >> for more, we go to eamon

javers. >> donald trump has been talking so positively about the 1890s on the campaign trail over the past couple of weeks. this was a fascinating one overnight. take a look at the electoral college map as it stands right now. this morning, we still have a couple of states out there to call. but look at pennsylvania up there in the upper right-hand corner, that really was the straw that broke the kamala harris campaign's back, they were depending on that blue wall. and it didn't happen. pennsylvania going for donald trump. that's 19 electoral votes. that made it almost insurmountable. then the call from nbc news that donald trump will be the winner of this election. in pennsylvania, it wasn't even that close. the margins there were bigger than some of the margins that we have seen in the polling running up to the election. and you look at donald trump last night, coming out about 2:30 in the morning, declaring victory, even before it was officially projected by a lot of the networks. still a big smile on trump's

face surrounded by family last night in mar-a-lago. here's what he had to say. >> we made history for a reason tonight. and the reason is going to be just that. we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible. and it is now clear that we have achieved the most incredible political thing -- look what happened. is this crazy? >> now there is a whole lot of questions for the trump campaign in terms of how they're going to structure this second trump white house in terms of the personnel, what you guys have been talking about around the table, who gets all the key economic jobs in this administration, all of that up for grabs right now. plenty to talk about there. emily wilkins is looking at the balance of power in washington. emily, take it away. >> well, republicans have won control of the senate, so the only question now for that chamber is how big their margins are going to be. now, we're still waiting on a number of states, but we are seeing republican, tim sheehy

has declared victory and tammy baldwin has announced her victory. nbc has not called either of those races yet. but you can see that a lot of these are getting close. i think the big story last night, though, in the senate, it was ohio, where republican bernie moreno beat senator sherrod brown and he had a lot of help from the crypto industry. receiving donations from coinbase and ripple and others, they poured $40 million into that race. moreno credited them for boosting his name recognition and making the race as close as it was. in the house, it is still anyone's game at this point. republicans have gotten key pickups in michigan and pennsylvania. but democrats made some gains in new york. we could see similar gains in california. now, with republicans winning the white house and the senate, the house is the last chance that democrats have to exert some degree of control in government next year. but if it is a red sweep, republicans will be well positioned to pass not just measures on taxes, but also energy and border measures,

using that process where they can easily get stuff through without any democrat support whatsoever. joe? >> you let us know. what's the timeline? we need to know it all. house, senate, can you -- >> i mean, hopefully it will wait until after i had a nap since i've been up all night. the last time that this happened, it took a really long time to get to california. it came down to there, it took almost two weeks to call at this point. the question is how quickly is california going to count because they have a number of races that could go either way. we're waiting on alaska at this point. still looking at washington, at oregon, so some of these things could take a while. obviously the sooner the better because then we have a lot of other important questions. if republicans win by a good margin, does someone challenge mike johnson for the speakership. if republicans don't win, then you're going to have your potential first black speaker of the house in hakeem jeffries for democrats. so, just a lot of questions

right now in the house and we'll be keeping a very close eye on everything. >> maybe we should be just happy, you know, there is no hanging chads that i'm aware of. and there is nothing going on in, like, pennsylvania or georgia, there is no, like -- >> no big panics yet at this point. it seems like everything has gone -- >> we're done. we're done. and what's today? >> a remarkably -- i think it is wednesday. we have to check the calendar. but -- >> might be the tail end of tuesday. by the way, emily, incredibly well put together and coherent for having no sleep last night. i mean, this is a long night for a lot of people. >> very. for just about everyone, i think, really. thanks. meantime, joining us now to discuss all this, former georgia senator and trump campaign surrogate david perdue, former ceo of reebok and dollar general. good morning to you. we have been trying to just make sense of what this means, what may very well be a red sweep

across the country, david. we don't know that part yet. but, your initial reactions to all of it. >> well, personally i think it is redemption for president trump, but more importantly i think it is a signal that the people in america really want to get back to the basics. i think this election spoke tons about what their concerns are. security at the border. security in foreign countries. and then also the pocketbook, the economy, inflation, jobs, so forth, these are the two driving issues that i think people spoke with yesterday and i think, you know, we're encouraged. there were seven states we're very concerned about. and it looks like for the most part they're going to be in line. this is a sweeping victory. i'm delighted with it and i think now we can get to work. >> david, let's talk about that work. your expectation on some of the big issues, taxes, corporate rates, individual rates, tariffs, we heard former president trump now going to be

the president again talk so much about those. how do you think that all plays out? >> well, andrew, i think what we -- we have a road map, you go back and look at 2017, i was in the white house shortly after he was elected. he talked about the same issues we have now. how to get the economy going. we focused on regulation, energy, taxes and banking. you'll see some of that now. also, you got a foreign situation right now that is very troublesome. you have two existential threats in my opinion. neither were really talked about much in the campaign. one is obviously the china issue and then second is this financial debacle that we have now with our debt and ever increasing situation there. and then you have social security and medicare under threat. so, we'll get -- he'll get to work very quickly. this time he only has four years. last time he thought, well, maybe he'll have eight years. i think you'll see him come out of the gate quickly with majority in the senate. you'll see his team put together very quickly. and he'll start executing his

plan. >> we never know when to stop calling people senator, but i guess i stopped calling you senator when i call you mr. secretary of something. is that going to happen? commerce? >> joe, right now, you know, we haven't counted all the votes. there are a lot of talented people. i think what you're going to see president trump do is what he did in his first term. he's going to surround himself with really triple a players, major league entities, men and women, people of color, you're going to see this. what he said tonight is really telling, i think, joe. he said this is a time to heal our country. you don't hear that a lot at this point. but i'm anxious to see that executed. you heard -- >> david, you know what i thought of, you got something that is very important to president-elect trump. you know what it is? >> what's that? strokes. >> club head speed.

someone didn't have -- he -- hey, you know what, you got the golf down, you might as well go back into public service, seriously. go ahead. >> david, we have talked a lot about tax and other financial implications, markets implications from this. we have not spent much time this morning talking foreign policy. how do you think this plays out when president trump has said one of his first prerogatives is going to be dealing with the situation or trying to solve the situation between ukraine and russia, what do you think happens with the middle east? >> i think there are three priorities right now. one, he said this on the campaign trail, one is to stop the fighting in ukraine. i think this can be done -- he's got context, he knows how to do that, the middle east, this is very dangerous. iran and israel have an open undeclared war right now. mostly cyber, but you see that going on before our very eyes every day. and then, of course, there is china. the tariff issue was part of the foreign policy. we made it part of the economic

conversation. but it was just as much part of the foreign policy. our supply chain is way over too dependent on china and other foreign countries. >> meaning you support the chips act still? >> i think that will be modified. but you'll see him come out of the gate quickly on all these fronts because four years goes by very quickly as we learned. >> david, one of the other questions we have been talking about all morning is the role that elon musk is likely to play in this administration. we talked about trying to create a more efficient government, a tweet he put out this morning, maybe we can put it up on the screen very reminiscent of an old tweet he put out when he first bought twitter, he came in physically holding a sink. i don't know if you've seen it, an image of himself super imposed over the oval office, also holding that sink. what does that look like to you? we noted tesla stock is up 13% on the back of this news. >> well, when you see that

rocket be brought back to earth, cradled in that, you know, structure, you think, okay, this is what we need in the federal government. i've studied this budget as you well know over the last ten years. you look at the last four years, discretionary spending is up 40%. it is outrageous. what we need is a basic restructuring plan. if this were a corporation, you would have big ideas coming in from all points to get this thing to become much more efficient and less costly. i think elon musk plays a very significant role in this. he has donald trump's trust. he has the ideas. he's not afraid to break some glass. so, i think you'll see him in the administration in some role, but i think his advice is going to be invaluable no matter what role he plays. >> we're showing that tweet now. separately we have been talking about winners and losers this morning and i'm curious as somebody in the investment world and business world and you looked at it, some people

saying, you know what, this may be great for tiktok. the president said before he may not want to shut down tiktok, it may be bad for meta. given some of the comments he made about that company. we're looking at tesla up 13%. we saw rivian, by the way, i don't know if i can explain it, down 5%. what is your thought in some of the -- about some of those names? >> i think the big winner is very clear. he committed to it. i think a lot of us are committed to this. the renaissance of domestic manufacturing. look at our supply chain. ship building, steel, we got to rebuild that here in the united states. so you're going to see tax structures, tariffs out there that will encourage domestic manufacturing to return to the united states. i think that's going to be the huge winner in the first couple of years of the trump administration. >> david, it is great to see you. we hope to talk to you a lot more in the coming days and weeks. thank you. >> thank you, andrew. see you guys. when we come back, a big lineup of guests that you don't

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welcome back to "squawk box." nbc news projecting donald trump has been elected president of the united states. the markets figured this out a little earlier. you can see the dow futures this morning up by over 1300 points. s&p futures up by 128. the nasdaq up by 315. and joining us right now to talk about the implications is david rubenstein, co-founder and

co-chairman of the carlyle group, good morning. >> thank you for having me. >> let's talk about what this means for the markets. you've seen the equity markets off and running, gain of maybe 2.75% for the dow futures now. we also have seen treasury yields higher as well, somewhere between 12 and 14 basis points on the ten-year. what do you think this means for the stock markets, first of all? >> clearly the stock market today will be up very strongly. i think many people in the financial markets were pushing for and wanted a trump victory. and they got that. but also what you got out of the election appears to be a very strong united government in the sense that the president is likely to have the house and the senate not just the majority, but many people in the house and the senate will feel they got elected because of him. and not since 1964 when lyndon johnson won overwhelmingly and had big majorities in the house and the senate, many of which those seats came about because of johnson's strong coattails,

did you have a president with this kind of power. so, donald trump has the power as president to do -- to get a lot done through congress and i think members of congress will go along a lot with what he wants. even when president obama had the power in the house and the senate, he didn't have the coattail effects that donald trump has had in this election. so, i think you're going to see a united government, i think the country seems to want a united government, i think you're likely to see the markets go up for a while, for sure. >> so, if he has a lot of sway over those senators and especially house republicans, what do you think he will go after first? because even if you have that kind of sway, you can't do everything at once. how do you think he will prioritize and what do you think the major initiatives are going to be? >> initially he said that he will do tariffs and i suspect that that doesn't require congress to be involved. i think his main legislative initiative, i can't speak for him, would probably be things in

the tax area, his tax cuts are five years ago, are expiring, and so if he wants to have them ske extended or enhanced, he has to do that quickly. he shouldn't have as much difficulty getting that done, you'll have to deal with the deficit issues, but i think the markets don't really care about deficits. that's what we learned. so as long as the markets don't care about deficits and don't appear to be, i think he can get through the tax legislation. >> you might argue the treasury markets cares a little bit. and, look, we had gary cohen saying as recently as last night, he's not concerned about deficits, you're seeing the treasury markets normalize and having higher yields on the back end of the curve. you think that's the case? >> i think the theory will be that, yes, we'll have some deficits for a while, but if economic growth can get to the level we want, that's the best way to solve deficits. there is no way we're going to solve deficits by cutting spending, we just can't cut the

key parts of the government that really are 90% of the spending, which are entitlements, defense and interest. the only way to get more revenue is greater economic growth and i think the markets will assume that will come about. you didn't ask me, but if i were to say, who is the big loser in this election, it is probably the pollsters. the pollsters i think were not that accurate and it may be artificial intelligence could be brought to the polling -- polling community because, you know, they seem to have not really predicted exactly what was happening and it now is clear there was a gigantic wave in favor of president trump. >> david, to your point about growth and to your point about dealing with deficits, there is a fascinating piece, i don't know if you had an opportunity to see it, larry fink of blockrock writing, we need to increase the size of our economy so that what we owe becomes smaller relative to what we make. if gdp rises at an average of 3% of real terms over the next five years, the country's debt to gdp ratio would stay roughly stable

at a high but reasonable level. do you believe we can get and stay at a 3% or above rate given all of the sort of cross currents we're just talking about? >> nobody knows for certain. but i would say that if you can get 3% or 3.5% growth, it will solve a lot of problems. right now the budget is basically 90% interest, entitlements, defense spending, and there is no room to really cut there. and as a result, you got to -- you're only going to get through this with growth, no other way that i can see. >> okay. let's talk maybe immigration. i would think that would be high on his list of things to get passed too. taxes i understand, tariffs and immigration. you think those are the first three? >> immigration is an issue that the president can do a fair bit on his own. i don't know whether the president will go -- i can't speak for him, but whether he'll try to get legislation through congress. clearly that's very complicated to get that legislation through. but the legislation that was

negotiated earlier this year that didn't pass the congress, if he were to support something like that, i suspect it would get through. and the early days of his administration, the first 100 days, he should be able to get a large part of what he wants to get done. just like roosevelt did. the 100 days is an artificial measurement. i think in the first couple of months, if president trump can get united behind a couple ideas, i think he can get those through congress. congress is going to go along with what he wants because it is clear he had coattail effects throughout the nation in ways that the pollsters did not see. >> it is hard to imagine too many republicans standing up and saying, no, we're not going to do what you want to do. >> i agree with you. four years ago, you invited me on this day, four years ago, i said then that i thought president trump would run again. if you go back and look at the tape, i think you were all skeptical. i didn't anticipate he would do exactly what he did, but i think he wanted to prove he had won the last time and i think he

deserves some credit for going through a very difficult circumstances. he overcame a lot of financial problems, overcame a lot of legal problems, and i would not have anticipated he would be able to do this, but i did think he wanted to run. i should say finally president biden deserves some credit for what he's done as well. he spent 50 years in public service, didn't do many things that he could have done on the private sector, but he really dedicated his life to public service. and i think a lot of things he did will benefit the country and president trump. i think the chips act, for example, the infrastructure act will have benefits we'll see for many, many years. while president biden will be leaving the political scene, i don't think we should say that he didn't accomplish a fair bit in four years, even though he didn't control congress completely the way that president trump does. >> do you see the chips act surviving without being kind of massively changed at least? same story with the i.r.a.? >> i can't speak for the president, but i would say the

new president, but i would say the i.r.a. will probably have some anedjustments. i wouldn't be surprised. i think the chips act, while it takes a while for it to be felt, it will be beneficial. it takes a while to build a foundry. the infrastructure legislation i think has some real benefits people are already seeing. so anybody who is president of the united states should feel that they have a mission to unite the country and president trump said that last night. he wants to unite the country and try to bring the country together. he isn't going to run for election again. and when you're freed for having to run for election again, i think you can do things that you wouldn't otherwise do. that's not a concern of his in the future. doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected. it is not something that is going to be on his mind. so i think he deserves a lot of credit for bringing this campaign to a conclusion the way he wanted, the campaign had a lot of bitterness in it and there is going to be hard feelings for some time, but hopefully he can heal that, and

hopefully he can show some grace and kindness toward some of his competitors and political opponents, because i think the country really wants to be united. i think the country is looking for some strong leadership that can unite the country in a way we haven't been able to do for a while. >> you're here, david, on that front. but let me ask you a separate question. to the extent there are going to be folks inside the democratic party that hopefully will be introspective in a morning like this and days and months and weeks to come, what is the lesson? >> the lesson is that -- the lesson for democrats -- i'm sorry? >> i was going to say, nbc just called montana for sheehy. so that adds, david, just -- >> 52. >> we're waiting. defeating jon tester in montana. that boosts the gop senate majority. sorry. >> to 52 from 51 we already saw. >> yeah. >> well, clearly the senate is going to be republican by more than anybody thought. and i think the house from what

i've now seen is likely to be republican. and as a result, president has a mandate, i think, to do what he wants. we learned in mandates, they can evaporate. and so if you don't get things done in the first six months or so, you know, you have a problem because eventually people don't like some of the things you want to do. so i think the president is likely to try to do things quickly. a lot of executive orders, which is what he did before, i think he'll have a number of executive orders in the beginning as president biden did as well. and i think you can get a lot done by executive orders, but i think showing a willingness to work with the other side probably can be helpful in getting some of the votes he might need from democrats because he can't get everything you want with all republican votes. it is an opportunity -- >> back to the question about democrats, if you were going to have dinner this evening and maybe you are, with obama or clinton or harris or the leadership, whatever you think the leadership even of the democratic party looks like, i don't know if they are the leaders anymore, what would you be telling them?

>> well, life will go on. the country won't fall apart. it is still the strongest country economically, technologically, in the world, we're still the role model for many countries around the world. but clearly you got to listen to what the voters want. it is a democracy. the voters didn't want what some people were selling and you got adjust. in the business world, you have to adjust when people don't want to buy your products. in the political world, people aren't buying what you want, you got to adjust. that's the lesson we get out of this. we also realize that polling is not as scientific a profession as we had thought. while polling is better than it was 10 or 20 or 30 years ago, it is still not perfect. >> what if president trump wants a democrat? you ready for whatever he wants you for? you're good at things. a lot of things, david. would you consider it? >> i think the best thing for me to do is to help the baltimore orioles win a world series. that's my main mission. >> i was going to say, i'll run

the blind trust, you go into office. it is a deal. >> or something. your talent is wasted. if asked, you would serve. i know you. >> i think that the best thing for me to do is to appear on your show from time to time when i'm invited, help the orioles and do the best i can to help my company. i think there are a lot of younger people than me who can do public service. i did public service 40 years ago. i got inflation to 18%. nobody has invited me back since then. and i think probably a good reason for that. i'll stay where i am. >> i forgot about that. >> carter years. the carter years. david rubenstein, thank you. >> if dodgers get soto, you may as well give up on the orioles too. >> thank you. my pleasure. when we come back, a lot more on this very special edition of "squawk box." the day after the election. donald trump the next president of the united states. when we come back, hedge fund manager kyle bass is going to join us in an important geolic rifatnsopitalamicio question of donald trump's

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news projects donald trump has officially won, john hope brian, and mick mulvaney, served as acting white house chief of staff to former president trump, now co-chair of acton strategic advisers. mick, to you first. what comes next, when you think about the priorities that trump has laid out, the economic priorities that he has laid out, what do you see happening over the first 100 days at this point? >> the way i explain it to people is if you -- what you liked about donald trump in the first term you're going to like more. what you didn't like in the first term, you're going to like even less. and that's because the team is ready. they have actually prepared this time, the 2016 win took the entire trump team as somewhat of a shock. and they didn't have, for example, teams in place, executive orders written et cetera, they're not making that mistake again. they're going to hit the ground running. there was a very steep learning curve four years ago. david rubenstein was right, the first legislative priority is going to be taxes because he has

to have congress to do that. but at the same time, working on the border and on regulatory policy because he can do that through the executive branch. >> mick, there is no russia thing going on either. that was two years of getting bogged down in -- i don't know what you call it. i'm ready for something else. i don't discount the possibility that immediately the opposing -- the opposition -- the loyal opposition might try to find something, do you think? >> there is some real fringe elements on the internet, keith olbermann is calling for an investigation. but i don't think anybody is listening. i think that the victory was so substantial, it is not a circumstance where he wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote. i think the democrats know they lost and they got beat and what they were selling didn't sell to the voters. so i do think it might be a little bit different. maybe that's naive in washington, d.c. that will be different if the house does end up going to

democrat control and doesn't look like that's going to happen, but it still could. but maybe trump will get a chance to actually work on his agenda as opposed to being distracted with investigations. >> john hope ryan, you have been a supporter of kamala harris. i'm interested on a morning like today, as you think about what this election means, what it means to the democratic party, what it means to you, what do you think? >> well, you know, i'm a supporter most of all on healing of this country. and that we're better together. my guess is she'll be gracious and respectful as she always is. my desire -- good to see you -- my desire is that we have focus on five things, andrew. first of all, it was said overnight, i was on overnight and i think it was said we have an ownership class, we have everybody else who feels like they're renting america. that's not sustainable. and there was a sales job done

to the bottom of the pyramid, whether you're struggling, white or black and brown, urban, that there was an agenda for you. and now that sales job is over and now the deal has been closed, so to speak. now it is about leadership. it is no more sales. it is about how do we materialize that and repair the latter from the bottom up? how do we help somebody in erie, pennsylvania? how do you help somebody -- frustrated, venting their frustrations is not going to pay somebody's mortgage or put them through school or start a business. so we got to repair that ladder. the five things, economic growth, everybody agrees on that, two, healing, that's probably something that is unique to me in adding on this list, on your program, three, strengthening the middle class, because 70% of the economy, andrew, is consumer spending. 70%. and i think that if you look at the swing states, we did a whole credit score index, all the

swing states basically look the same. you look at the credit scores, life expectancy, they are stuck in the middle. so growing the middle class. growing the table, which includes our demographic growth, embracing our demographic growth. the legitimate diversity in this country, growing the table otherwise, we're at risk from iran, russia, china, north korea, who want to be us, economically, and then reducing the debt both the country's debt and personal debt through to tame economic growth. it is a circular, not a firing squad, circular. we have to get small businesses re-energized and the consumer, the individual has got to see the ladder rebuilt. the color is green. it is not black or white or red or blue. i keep saying on your program. it is green. that's what this election, i think, was about. >> mick, to the extent there are executive orders, things that

the president can do on his own, versus things that are going to require congress and the senate and the like, what do you think% is just immediately doable that we should keep our eyes on? and i ask in part because we're watching the dow by the way up now about 1351 points. that is -- that market is trying to say something about where this is all headed. i don't know if that's tax policy itself, around tariffs, i don't know what that -- what you think -- that's the regulatory environment, what is happening here. >> yeah, i think by the way, you used the magic word that doesn't get enough attention. yes, there is going to be attention to immigration. yes, there is going to be attention within the executive branch to tariffs. but it is the deregulatory agenda that really was the secret sauce to the first term. it was the reason he was able to spend as much money as he did, add to the deficit, have really, really good job numbers, employment numbers, really good wage growth and not have inflation. the deregulatory agenda was the

secret weapon and i do think you're going to see that going to high gear. it won't make a lot of headlines, but it will have a direct impact on the economy. if inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, making it easier to get goods and services to market is going to help keep inflation in check and you'll see them focusing on that. >> mick, do you see a fight over the fed in the next coming years? we talked about jay powell, he's made comments about jay powell. is there going to be some kind of, you know -- >> i think you're going to have a real healthy discussion about the role of the executive authority in this country, should the president be the chief executive officer, should he or she have the ability to hire and fire people, are these so-called independent agencies really the way things should be structured? you'll have that debate, yes. i don't think you'll see dramatic change, but have that debate for the first time in a generation. >> i know you got to run. is that a healthy debate? >> i think it absolutely is. should the president be -- 1700

people worked for me at the cfpb. i could hire and fire seven of them. that's a debate you're going to have. >> hey, andrew. >> go ahead, john. >> andrew, i think an easy one here for the new administration and the new senate should be financial literacy. it should be easy. financial literacy for all. k through -- kids, children's savings accounts, graduate from college, get them financial literacy all the way through college. that will do a lot of what i said earlier and help to bridge the division of economic prosperity in this country. rebuild the ladder. >>i think that's something most people, all of us at the table, can agree on. john hope bryant, mick mulvaney, thank you for joining us this morning. we want to get back to the markets. they are ripping right now. the dow up 1350 points. the nasdaq up 333 points. s&p 500 up about 130 points. we're going to get over to dom chu, he's tracking all of today's early morning movers.

what's on the list? >> andrew, joe, becky, among the bigger gainers today, it speaks to the hederegulation conversatn you were having. let's look at the bank sector. we are seeing large gains for america's biggest banks out there. jpmorgan chase up 7%. citigroup up 8.5%. bank of america of 8%, wells fargo up 10%, goldman sachs, 7.4%. to the other side on the down side, there is maybe less of a focus these days on clean energy going forward. at least for the time being. that's the view some traders are having. solar companies, first solar down 14%, sun run, enphase in sunnova energy, clean energy taking a hit. on the other side of the equation. traditional fossil fuels and hydro carbons, look at the big

producers and companies based in the u.s. exxonmobil up 1.5%. chevron up, conocophillips up and halliburton, so gas on the rise. what is happening with tesla, seen as a beneficiary, not all ev makers are following this suit, tesla up 12.5%. elon musk has close ties to the future president trump coming up. and it is, of course, still a fundamental earnings day. cvs health, those shares up 8.5% right now. they reported earnings this morning, earnings came in below analyst estimates, but the revenue came in better than expected. they did also say that they're not going to provide formal guidance for the time being. they're going to wait to see how things shake out first. this is a stock that over the last year from its highs has lost about 33% of its value during that span, perhaps a bit of a bounce for cvs. i'll send things back over to you. >> very good, dom. good rundown. thanks. joining us now on the

election, and the key issue of geopolitics, kyle bass, haiman capital management founder and chief investment officer. probably just say take it away, kyle, but i want to -- i've been trying to figure this out. did china like the biden administration? trump has expressed admiration at times for not just dictators, but for president xi himself at how smart he is. and not really envy of, you know, being able to control that many people, and almost autocratically, is china happy or sad today? >> yeah, i think, well, look, trump has an interesting negotiating style. whether he, you know, kisses up to the authoritarians or says sweeping things like he says to nato, he's less predictable. he's not -- doesn't come from

the hallways of the liberal elite and so his style is very different than everyone else's. his comments about disbanding nato, you think about when putin took crimea in 2014, only three of 31 nato members were paying 2% of gdp or more for defense. post trump's comments, it went to 18 pretty fast. whether his comments were hyperbolic or people thought he was going to disband nato or stop funding nato or doing whatever he was going to do to abolish nato, what he did is he scared a good -- 15 members of nato all of a sudden conformed and all in europe, spending more than 2% of gdp on their -- on defense. so, you know, today we got 18 of 31. we should have 31 of 31, joe. so when i think about china, particularly, you know, it was trump's national security council that really -- that really turned the dial, that

really advised our country and our leadership on what xi jinping's plans were. on his plans to forcibly take taiwan, on his plans to become -- to achieve global primacy at all costs, that they're actually not our strategic competitor, that they're actually the enemy. and in the last administration, it was a security council and secretary pompeo and various other cabinet level positions that really worked hard to combat china's -- call it, quote, smokeless battlefield on the warfare, the warfare on the smokeless battlefield and i think this time it really depends who is secretary of defense is going to be and who is national security council is going to be this time. last time it was steve mnuchin and wall street fighting him at every turn. i wonder if his new treasury secretary, which i think will be scott bessant, will probably not

be fighting at every turn to defend china. so, i think xi is not going to be happy with the new administration's china policy. >> we got scott -- we got scott bessent coming up next. >> you know what, this is going to take some time, kyle. because i was just saying, we have talked about so much this morning, but very little about geopolitics. we could talk ukraine, we could talk israel, we could talk iran, we could talk europe and whether they're just mortified, i don't know what they're thinking at this point of what their future looks like economically, nato-wise and everything else. where do you want to go? what comes to mind? >> i think it is important to pay attention to the whole landscape that you just laid out. you have a scenario where there is no off ramp for a russia-ukraine war. i believe there no off ram p fo the proxy wars.

i think the next move is israel taking out the energy infrastructure and the nuclear infrastructure of iran. iran has already publicly declared with all of their leadership that they're going to hit back at israel. clearly israel begged the biden administration to not, let's say, strike the way that they wanted to strike pre-election. and now you got xi jinping eyeing taiwan and the philippines and he's told us since 2017, in public statements and speeches, through his various standing members of the politburo he's going to take taiwan during his lifetime. and, you know, the next 74 days before the election will be an interesting time for me because you have a scenario where all of these multiple fronts of war are open, and you have a scenario also in which the financial architecture of the world, cnbc is so good at talking about the economies of the world, but the

financial underpinnings and the currencies of all of the countries surrounding the middle east and in the middle east and all of the currencies and countries in southeast asia, the architecture of the world is in a position today where it hasn't been this bad in a very long time, and it is a result of many of these currencies hyperinflating, due to the inflation that we just pushed to the world in dollars. so, i see more conflict coming. i don't see any reproachments coming because the financial architecture is so damaged. >> we have criticized previous administrations for not enforcing red lines. scary things can happen if you do enforce a red line, and i don't -- trump talks about strength and things wouldn't have happened if he had been there because, you know, other countries -- he's either unpredictable or they fear he's capable of things that, you know, maybe the biden administration would never dream of, but are there risks to

lighting a -- there is tinder there, kyle. and everybody seems to be nuclear armed and, i mean, could we end up more likely to get i cocoa cocoa and the republican iranian guard has been calling for death to america for a long time. they have been saying that israel shouldn't even exist. if you look at the target package for israel, there are a number of nuclear sites in iran, so, you know, they're going to need our help on some of those sites if, in fact, that's the tact taken where we have to try to penetrate many hundreds of meters into the ground to destroy some of iran's nuclear ambitions, and the question is, will we do that or not? i don't know. i think that you're talking about red lines, if you lead with weakness and you lead with

begging for meetings at every turn, you know, the quote comes into play, you may not be interested in war, but war is certainly interested in you. you'll end up causing many many more deaths and destruction later if you don't lead with strength on the front end. i believe the policies that have been enacted in the last four years, especially sanctions policy, the typical of our sphere is economic sanctions, and when you look at the last trump administration in 2017, we had iran literally screwed to the ground. we had them with 12 to $15 billion of working capital, and through this administration, they released $100 billion worth of funds to the iranian regime. october 7th happened. when you look at our sanctions on russia, we didn't sanction anything. we sanctioned 10% of the oligarchs, a bank or two. we didn't touch putin's energy business. that is the blood flow that lets

the tumor grow. we were too afraid to press the stronger, tougher sanction buttons because we're afraid of gasoline prices going into the midterms. we need leadership that will press the tough buttons, joe, and really start to cut the blood flow off to the tumors, the bad guys in this world. >> yep. >> but like they say, there are consequences, and it's very, you know, this stuff is hard, i guess, isn't it? >> there's no easy button. >> okay. all right. thanks, kyle, we'll check back. donald trump economic adviser, scott beensst is going to join us. stay tuned, "squawk box" will be stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back income, energy, commodities and equities, to areas like climate risk and the entire lifecycle of a mortgage.

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nbc projects donald trump has won the presidential election. futures now almost 1,400 points, surging, joining us, scott

bessent, founder and ceo of key square group. >> call him secretary. >> we'll get to that soon, scott. i don't know how much you want to go into that on whether that is a possibility as far as treasury, but both sides agree, it's just the way to get there is different. the only way out of this is growth. larry fink, i thought it was interesting, he wrote something about that today about how it's got to be growth. i think his idea of how to engender growth is probably 180 degrees from where yours is. >> yeah, joe, i think we're going to do it through -- excuse me, deregulation, energy dominance, and reprivatizing the economy because we've seen this massive government spending. we have a 7% deficit to gdp, which we have never had in peacetime. or nonrecessionary period, so,

you know, and we've got this elon musk cost cutting commission, which over the past weeks, months when i've been out talking to people on the campaign trail, the public is very excited about. >> you know, scott, we've had people earlier, more or less characterizing the president as someone it doesthat does like t spend money. we talked about whether the ira would be repealed and the infrastructure, what happened there, and there are people saying that instead of repealing these things, that president trump is going to take credit for the red states that benefit from all of this spending, fiscal spending. what's going to happen? what would you recommend? >> yeah, look, this ira or inflation reduction act, which is orwellian named is the doomsday machine for the budget.

i believe this thing was originally scored for civilians and normal people like i used to be, all the scoring is done over ten years. i think it was originally scored plus 50. then it scored at negative 300. now, i think we're at a trillion, and i've seen estimates that over the life, this thing could go to 4 1/2 trillion. so i think a priority is going to be turning off the ira, and you've seen president trump and his disdain for this green new deal, and you know, i just can't imagine a worse time to move towards this kind of ev mandate that we've had. >> hey, scott, all of the ira, though? all of the ira. we have had guests who have come on today and suggested that not just president trump but a lot of republican senators and congressmen might like some of the spending that's taking place

in their district? >> well, look, it's already embedded. i think it's deeply cynical what the democrats tried to do was to embed this in the district. becky, that, you know, i couldn't have written a script with greater incomp tetence tha the biden/harris administration did. we have this incredible ai boom that's going to require huge amounts of electricity, 3% growth in electricity, and they simultaneously were pushing for a 2035 ev mandate, so more electricity. we're on the verge of an electricity shortage in the u.s. we're already seeing one of the sources of inflation and the affordability crisis is electric bills going up. so i don't think anyone's going to have a problem with slowing down our cutting off this ira.

>> scott, there's been lots of questions about the future of the federal reserve, its independence, whether jay powell remains in his role to the end of his term, whether there are shadow chairmen that tried to be put in place or other things like that. i don't know how feasible or practical those things are. but what is your -- what do you think president trump is going to do as it relates to the federal reserve, and what would you recommend to him? >> yeah, i think he's already come out and said that chair powell is going to finish out his term, and i was misquoted by a very good reporter who i think misunderstood what i said. i think that we should, appoint the next or nominate the next federal reserve chair very early. one of the sources of the great

inflation of 2022 was j&j ay pol was the latest appointment of this century, and you would have to ask the biden people why they waited so late. he was not renominated until the end of november, 2021, he -- he was confirmed in december of 2021, and then he began hiking rates in march of '22. if they had renominated him and reappointed him six months earlier, he could have gotten started sooner. so the other thing, too. think about it. president trump has already said he is not going to renominate jay powell, so in a way that increases his independence, right? he's not gunning for a reappointment so he has -- >> let me ask you a follow up question. one of the candidates, and we've had him on the broadcast many times, is kevin warsh people talk about as a prospective

chairman for that role. one of the things that he has been is, i would argue, not dovish. dovish would not be the term i would put with kevin warsh, and how you think president trump would think about somebody who isn't quote unquote dovish, given some of the things he may want to do. >> how do we define dovish? because jay powell did what i thought was an inappropriate jumbo rate cut in september, and look what dovish got us, exclude the move in the bond market today, which we could talk about if you want, but a dovish fed, raised the ten-year rate by 70 basis points. so that's not dovish. they're actually tightening financial conditions, which is what drives a lot of capital formation for businesses and certainly the mortgages. so, you know, i think that we

have some great candidates, including kevin warsh, and you know, sometimes a short-term, holding short-term rates brings long-term rates down. so i don't think that, you know, someone who is, you know, cut, cut, cut on the short end, and, you know, i think, two, that we could get into an equilibrium where trump 1.0 was very disinflationary or you could just say that inflation was very -- under president trump. it was a round target of 2. and if you can get inflation back to target, through good policy, then i think we could get into a proper easing cycle that, you know, any of the fed chair would push for. >> scott, the election is over, so i don't know if we need to promise everybody the world anymore, but if you were -- if

the economy was -- let's say you were treasury secretary, and the buck stops with you, when the president says, okay, we're doing tips, no taxes, we're doing social security, no taxes, i'm getting rid of the cap, i'm extending my tax cuts. all of these things and tariffs, some of them, maybe it's negotiating, but you're going to have to deal with some of those consequences. aren't a lot of those things inflationary, and were there times where you were just, mr. president, or president-elect, don't promise all of these things? i know there's an election, but it's not all possible to do all things for all people, is it? >> joe, there's a lot to unpack there on both sides, so let's talk about first the -- some of the tax cuts that president trump talked about during the campaign. you know, that's going to be a negotiation with the republican congress, and it looks like we

did have a -- >> is that a negotiation? >> here's what i want. okay. >> let's see here. i'll sign whatever you give me, it seems like. >> look, i've already been in conversations with a lot of the republicans who will chair those committees, and, you know, i can tell you, in the republican congress, especially in the house, there's a big appetite for pay fors. sol it will be a negotiation. >> although, scott, that comes down to the idea that there's a big appetite for pay fors, but i would also imagine there's not a big app consetite to tussle wit reelected president who's coming in with a landslide, a red wave, who's clearly pretty powerful on this, and a lot of the reason that many of those elected are the reason that they're going to have the majority is because of president trump. if he really wants this, it seems to me like he could push whatever he wants in the

beginning. >> well, but, becky, i can tell you, the one thing he doesn't one is a replay of what we've just got under biden/harris because, you know, the reason donald trump -- i would say the two reasons donald trump is going back to 1600 pennsylvania is the great inflation and the squeeze, especially on working class people's real wages, and, you know, mass unfettered immigration. so let's talk about the squeeze on wages that you would not do a replay on the squeeze on wages because, you know, under president trump there was real wage growth. under biden/harris, there was a loss of purchasing power, especially among the bottom two quintiles of earners, who have a different basket of goods and services. so president trump has some very good ideas, but i guarantee you, the last thing he wants is to,

you know, cause inflation, and this is a problem we're seeing all over the world. i think prime minister kishida in japan was pushed out because of negative wage growth. >> meaning some of the things that he promised he knows would be inflationary so he's not going to push through and follow through on some of those things? >> you can't have it both ways. you can't say a tax cut is inflationary and a tariff is also inflationary. so i don't think they're necessarily inflationary. what we're seeing, i think today in the bond market is, you know, i don't think the bond market is worried about a trump 2.0 inflation. i think what you're seeing is a healthy -- is a healthy move geared toward a growth impotence. you know, we are going to see deregulation, which is

disinflationary, we are going to see president trump has said he wants to get energy prices down. disinflationary, and then tariffs are a one-time price adjustment. the federal reserve in their teal book in the summer of 2017 said that the fed should look through tariffs, and, you know, my view and, you know, i don't have a say now yet or maybe ever, but is that the, you know, i would recommend that tariffs be layered in gradually, which would -- the price adjustment would be over a period of time. but i think if you take that price adjustment, coupled with all of the other disinflationary things president trump is talking about, then we're going to be at or below the 2% inflation target again. >> hey, scott, personal question for you, i don't know if you can answer it or not, but just should we expect to be doing

interviews like this from the lawn outside the white house in the future? >> well, i don't know if you'll be doing them with me. i'm sure you'll be doing them with somebody. >> with you, scott, with you? >> look, i'm going to do whatever president trump asks. if he says, scott, be better to have you on the outside, we can speak once a week, and you can critique what's going on, i'll do that. if he says, you know, i'm going to settle the war in the ukraine, please go help rebuild the ukrainian economy, i will do that. you know, there have been no discussions about jobs. important thing was to win as we did last night. it was a real wave. i am not surprised. it's what, you know, i think i said it when i was on before, i predicted that we would have the

trifecta and that president trump won the popular vote. as you said, he does have a mandate. >> okay. i was -- actually, when he said might not be him, but it will at least be us, i was happy that you said at least it will be us. because who knows. right? very needy, scott. thanks, maybe it will be you. maybe it will be all of us. good to have you on for an extended talk today, and we'll see whether we talk, whether we're begging you for interviews in about three months. >> you can still ask me on as a -- >> either way. either way we will. >> i still have a day job. >> thank you. >> okay. thanks. >> thank you. the fed kicks off its latest meeting today, and a lot of economists are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow. joining us right now on that and the fed independence conversation is former dallas

fed president rob kaplan, vice chairman at goldman sachs. this idea that former president trump, and upcoming president trump has said that he would not renew jay powell. scott just said maybe that makes the fed even more independent over the next couple of years, what do you think? >> i think the fed will act independently this year and next year, and they'll do their best to screen out political influence and put political considerations. that's what they have been doing, and i think they'll continue to strive to do that. >> and that fed operating under independents should be doing what, do you think? >> so, they'll go ahead and make a cut in november down 25 basis points. i think december they'll leave their options open. they won't commit to it. and they've got to take some time to see how the economy

unfolds, and how these policies unfold. i've been saying for a while that there's two phases of the rate cutting. phase one is as long as inflation is sticky around 2 1/2. they can get to say, 4 1/4, 4 1/2. but they need to see progress from 2 1/2 to 2. in my opinion, to cut rates lower. and i still think that's the approach they'll take. >> let's talk through some of these potential policies. assuming you heard this conversation we just had with scott. >> i did. >> let's talk about the idea if they reign in spending, cutting back the ira, the c.h.i.p.s act, government spending. i don't know how effective they will be with initiatives, if they do reign in spending, that would be anti-inflation narrow. you take the idea of lower taxes, put that where you want in the pot, tariffs could be inflationary. how do you see all of this adding up? >> this is going to be a mosaic. it's going to be a puzzle, and

you're going to have to look at it holistically. the first issue i would look at is what are the immigration policies and what's the effect on work force supply. does it -- does it actually go down? or is it more manageable? but that's the number one question. the immigration policies and some of the things that have been said, what do they actually do, tariffs, we've talked about. remember, tariffs is just on goods. goods is 30% of the economy. and people are dynamic. if things are more expensive, they substitute. they buy other things. and some of this may be negotiating. there's going to be a significant regulatory review economy-wise with the intention to improve productivity per capita. that's disinflationary. there's going to be, i'm sure, as scott mentioned, a focus on energy policy and pressuring saudi arabia and domestic

producers to produce more, and so you'll have to look at the mix and how it unfolds, but i would be careful not to prejudge it. i think the one thing i'm very sensitive to and they'll be sensitive to, debt to gdp went from 70% pre-covid to over 100%, and we are seeing the term premium on the treasury market inching up, meaning we're paying more to sell duration in treasuries, and i think managing the debt load and how we do it is going to be a significant challenge. >> rob, thank you for joining us this morning. i know it's been a long night. you have been asked to comment on a lot of different things too. robert kaplan, we appreciate your time, sir. >> good to see you. >> you too. stock futures reacting to donald trump's electoral victory. you can see the dow futures up by about 1,270 points, the s&p up by 125, the nasdaq up by 330

points. we have seen treasury yields higher this morning. let's get to our senior markets commentator, mike santoli, there's a lot to run through here. the market just in general sees green lights and dry road right ahead of it for now, and it was somewhat spring loaded. i have been talking the last couple of days. the market got hedged up into the uncertainty of the election. the average stock correcting. we have the tension release, and the market is trying to execute the 2016 trump trade, once again, across the board. now, we can argue about whether the preconditions are similar or not, but right now, you see the russell 2000 futures on a one-year basis now about to overtake the nasdaq 100. the s&p is going to open at a new high as well, even if it's up 20% already year to date. now on a two-year basis, importantly, the russell 2000 is lacking the nasdaq 100 by 60 percentage points. in other words, there's a lot of catch up for small cap, for value, core cyclicals, things

left behind and banks making a big move today. here you go. you can see that's a two-year version of that. i want to put the move in yields, a two-year chart of the ten-year treasury yield does that. what we have done for sure is we have broken whatever down trend we had from october of 2023, those highs, as scott bessent was saying, robert kaplan was saying, we can argue down the road, how much of this is rising inflation expectations, how much is real growth expect tations. deficit concerns. what is clear is in the short-term, it eventually becomes maybe a little bit of a pinch on some things like the russell i russell 2000. 30-year fixed mortgage is at 7 1/2 before we blink here. take a look at tesla, another catch-up move, relative to its sort of peer group here. a two-year of nasdaq 100 against tesla. you see it's pretty close to maybe going toward that high for tesla back in, i think it was the summer of 2023. finally, the volatility index,

getting smashed. this was actually a predictable and widely predicted impact of the economy. it was all about short-term hedging, about uncertainty, that's going away. we're back down toward 15. that's kind of the long-term average. probably room for it to go down in the seasonally strong period for stocks in november and december, guys. >> mike, thank you for that. i want to get more on these election results. president trump, the president once again, i want to bring in eamon javers at the table who has not slept too much either. >> no, just a couple of hours really. take a look at the electoral map, and you'll see how we got here this morning. this map is going to stop mattering as we go through the morning, as we go through the next couple of hours, but you see pennsylvania there in the red column for donald trump. that was the deal breaker for kamala harris. that was 19 electoral votes. we have a couple of the battleground states, remember at the beginning of the night last night, we were following seven battleground states, pennsylvania, the big one there, you see georgia also going and

north carolina going in the former president's column. that was the deal breaker. we're waiting for the upper midwes midwest, some of those west coast states. there are some results to trickle in here. overwhelmingly, though, this will be seen as a huge, huge victory for donald trump. he was very happy about it last night, about 2:30 in the morning addressing his supporters at mar-a-lago. here's what he had to say, and take a listen to this, joe, because it plays in to what you guys have been talking about. >> we're going to be paying down do debt. we're going to be reducing taxings. we can do things that nobody else can do, nobody else will be able to do it. china doesn't have what we have. nobody has what we have. >> donald trump there saying paying down doubt and reducing taxes at the same time. the question for the trump administration now, and especially on the back of your last interview is how do you do that practically? can you get into a position where you generate so much revenue that you can actually pay down debt at a time when

you're cutting taxes, and can this incoming trump administration avoid setting off an inflation bomb that does the same thing to their presidency that it did to the biden presidency with the tariffs being seen as widely inflationary. those are some of the con vants we -- constraints we're going to be under. the former president promising a lot. >> he was talking about the first trump administration. i almost read from a stock fund, you know, past results are no guarantee of future performance. you can't just say, hey, we did 1.9 inflation last time. >> it's not plug and play like that. >> scott made it sound as if the president realizes that, and is going to have to modify some of the things he was saying on the campaign trail. >> that was an interesting point of your interview, and you pinned him down on that sthat, t is the former president promising things he's not going

to be able to deliver because they're inflationary. we just saw the political danger of inflation, trump's not going to want to get anywhere near that. does he back off on the inflationary things. >> i was going to ask you this, we have michael whatley. i it's great to see you. you know, the betting sites have gotten a bad wrap, but they were so ahead of everything yesterday, and so accurate that i guess i got to ask you, right now, the republican house, 90%, can you fill us in on it? is the house going red? o i'm sorry, staying red? >> yeah, we're in a great position to keep the house. we had a great set of victories last night. president trump the greatest political comeback in history. with a mandate. and i think that when you combine that with the senate seats that we had and our ability to keep the house, this

is going to be what we need to move forward with the america first agenda, and i think that we're going to see moves that are going to allow this economy to breathe, this economy to grow. and for us to be able to bring down inflation, bring down costs and really truly have an seconoy that's going to work for every american family. >> you know, michael, the markets themselves. there's an old adage that they love gridlock. they don't say democrat gridlock when a democrat is president. the markets like gridlock for a reason, when either party is in power. but i don't know, the markets just don't trust either one to be unbrigdled. you would say it would be a great development for the economy if it was senate, house, and president trump. >> yeah, just look at the impact that we had during the first couple of years of president trump's term when we unleashed

the energy, brought those prices down. you know, people talk a lot about tariffs. tariffs are a tool to be able to get us into a fair trade agreement. it doesn't need to be free trade. it needs to be fair trade. and it needs to serve the american economy. we're very excited about being able to work with the house, work with the senate. we want to extend the trump tax cuts. we also want to see no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. no tax on social security, so there is definitely going to be a package that's going to have to move forward with it. we obviously, president trump is going to be a leader for all americans. he campaigned on that. we saw seismic shifts. black voters, hispanic voters, asian american voters that came his way. he reached out into the bronx. he went into philadelphia. he went into detroit. he went into atlanta. so, you know, he's not going to be constrained by typical republican border. this is the most big dent republican party that we have seen in generations.

having people like elon musk and robert kennedy jr. and tulsi gabbard come on board, i think he's truly going to be able to build bridges and work across the aisle. >> michael, a couple of things, you referenced rsfk jr., do you anticipate he will oversee things like food and even as it relates to fda pieces around vaccines and the like? >> now that the dust is starting to settle a little bit on last night, some of those discussions can happen. president trump was very clear throughout the last several weeks, we do not want people measuring the curtains. we do not want people talking about positions in a potential administration. we wanted to be out there campaigning on the road. that's why we did three rallies -- >> the incoming president has not said that. >> we will see what those positions are going to look like. i can tell you, the formal

discussions, now is the time to start that and start putting it together. >> michael, we've also been looking at the markets this morning, and looking at specific stocks, winners and losers and the like. i wanted to get your sense of maybe how you think about it. we've obviously seen tesla shares have risen materially, elon musk appears to be having a major role in this administration and the future. i don't know if you saw his tweet, holding the sink this morning, super imposed on the oval office, similar to the tweet he sent out when he first took over x. i was curious about things, you were talking about china and tariffs. things like tiktok, which former president trump now the new president, again, has talked about keeping, despite some of the concerns about it being a national security threat. on the flip side, companies like meta, which might have benefitted if tiktok weren't allowed in the u.s., and also his comments about meta being an

enemy. trying to think things through, how should they? >> you take a look at what the president promised over the course of the election, one thing that we saw during his first term in office, promises made, promises kept. he is going to make sure every single day that this is going to be an economy driven towards helping bring down inflation, bring down prices. we want real wage growth. we do not want the wage, you know, decreases we have seen over the course of the last four years. so i think we have a track record, and i think folks can see what he did in the past, but more importantly, how he approached it in the past. and he will definitely have a team of professionals who know what they're doing around him in the administration. >> mike, we had scott bessent on, and i have no idea whether he eventually finds his way into the administration, but he seemed to imply he thought the ira was toast. that would be the one of the first things that we might see

the president along with the senate and the house try to reverse. what about the c.h.i.p.s act? what about, i don't know, take your pick, any of the things that the biden administration did over the past four years? all open to possibly repeal? >> i would say at this point in time, all of those discussions can start in earnest, we need to make sure, you know, what the final majority is going to look like in the house. we had a great night in the senate. i know that the leaders from the house and the senate have already had, you know, some initial conversations in terms of process. but we want to get to january 20th, and hit the ground running, the house and the senate will come in january. and we do not want to waste a lot of time. we have a limited four-year window to be able to get this economy out of a ditch, and make sure that we're working for every american family. >> we appreciate having you on. i guess on your resume now, you're putting that you were the rnc chair for what just hit you

and your cochair. is this going to be like right at the top there? >> it absolutely has to be. you know, i think that when you look at, you know, this type of a campaign, you look at these results, it is a real opportunity to serve the american people. and that is absolutely not lost on any of us. >> might be more the american people. i give you a lot of credit. obviously success speaks volumes. thank you. appreciate having you on this morning. thanks. >> thanks, guys. >> thank you. we should mention that crypto prices are surging right now, after donald trump's electoral victory. you're looking at bitcoin at 73. almost $74,000 this morning, at one point, it was, i think, marginally higher. i want to bring in galaxy founder and ceo, mike novogratz. mike, i believe upper supporting the other candidate, but i'm curious as you see these markets moving the way they are, what your reaction is?

>> listen, it was a great night for the crypto industry, right, and if you listen to your last guest, donald trump keeps his promises. if you go back to the speech he made at nashville to the crypto community, his agenda is very pro crypto. j.d. vance is pro crypto. peter teal, howard lutnick. surrounding himself by people that believe in the industry, care about the industry. the crypto community showed up. there are now over 240 congressmen who, you know, the crypto pack thought were pro crypto. we've got a congress that is moving our way. we've got a president moving our way. and so, for galgaxy, the crypto industry, i couldn't be more optimistic. >> in terms of your optimism, it rela relates to the way this is going to be regulated. you have a bet going that there will be a bitcoin reserve for the country. >> listen, i'm not sure. >> play out the permutations here. >> i think the biggest thing is

the occ, the fdic, the fcc, the regulatory chairs getting direction from a president and a secretary of treasury that says, hey, we want to lead in this industry. those three positions with someone who's opened minded to crypto, and is pro crypto changes everything. allowing state street and bank of new york to custody crypto, allowing the banks to hold it on their balance sheet will bring in billions, hundreds of billions of participants into our ecosystem, and all of a sudden we'll start seeing decentralized systems launched and work. and so this is really a step change shift. now it's not going to happen overnight. you don't get a new s.e.c. chair in a week. over the next one, two, three, six months, as these, you know, new people are put in these positions, i think you're going to see a substantial, you know,

shift in the energy of this industry. >> mike, to the extent you want to throw out names, who do you think might be up for this s.e.c. role? i know we've had a lot of names thrown around for the treasury secretary role. we talked to scott bessent, and we had john paulson on the program earlier. two names floated for that role. who do you think would be the right person to run the s.e.c. under a second trump administration? >> listen, hester pearce has been there, and you know, they call our crypto mom, and i know she's probably throwing her name in that hat. the, you know, chief legal officer at robinhood is thrown in. i'm not sure the exact person matters as long as they're very open minded to this industry. you know, and i think there's just no way trump's not going to pick someone who -- listen, he's launched his own coin. so, you know, his family is

engaged. he's engaged and so i just think it's hard to kind of, you got to wake up and slap yourself in the face. we have gone four years of a very very difficult regulatory environment. and that's all about to change. >> right. >> mike, can you put your macro hat on for a moment this morning. i'm curious if you were investing more broadly outside of the crypto space, where you think the winners and losers are. >> yeah, listen, i think in the short run, right, emerging market currencies, china are getting hit. you're seeing it today. i would be a buyer of chinese stocks on any dpip. i think the chinese are going to respond with a big stimulus package. i like the yield curve getting steeper. there's one, you know, i guess wild hair out there. right. elon musk was really the only person on either side during the campaign that talked about america going bankrupt, that talked about this giant deficit that we have, that we need to do

something about. if that's the case, if they actually take him seriously and do something, and besthat would change things, it will change in gold and silver. i don't think donald trump has it in him after having got this mandate to say i've got to tighten my belt. i don't see it. i don't see us, you know, social security and medicare really are the two things you'd have to go and attack, really unpopular politically, and so one of the reasons -- >> how much progress therefore do you think that elon musk can make then? >> very little. again. >> little. >> 57% -- >> he doesn't do little. mike, have you not watched elon musk? he's landing, you know, rockets between chop sticks. he doesn't do little. >> it will be interesting, but, you know, you've got to -- let's see how the house comes out. it's going to be very close.

you're not going to have a giant majority in the house. you don't have 60 in the senate, and guess who gets to decide who gets to spend money, congress, not the president, and so it's always easy to get euphoric about this is going to happen. listen, social security and medicare and treasury financing is 57% of the budget. add the military on, and you're at like 75%. and so you've got 25% to play with. it's hard to cut a lot out. we have a $6.75 trillion budget, you know, 25% of that, like, to cut $2 trillion out of the budget, you would have to cut 100% of nonmedicare, social security, and debt service and military. and so i'm hoping he makes progress. trust me. if harris had won, the first tweet i was going to send was please hire elon musk to help on, you know, efficiency in the government. i really think it's an amazingly good idea and i'm hoping he makes progress. i think it's a lot harder than you think. >> for those folks out there

thinking about equities this morning, especially s&p 500, obviously, which is weighted almost entirely or, you know, so much towards the big tech names, do you buy? i mean, clearly the market is suggesting that, but i ask because this is something you do for a living. >> yeah, listen, there's a ton of buybacks coming in the next five, six weeks. the supply/demand tells you to buy equities. there's momentum on its side. we're about to take out, you know, the recent high in nasdaq, and so i think there's one last surge in equity prices. the risk of course is the bond market doesn't like this. bonds are down it points, they fall another 3, 4, 5 points. at one point, equities are going to say, what's going on. it feels like equities higher, bonds lower. >> mike novogratz, thank you for joining us this morning on this election, the day after, as donald trump is our next president. thank you.

>> thank you. when we come back, continuing coverage of the 2024 election, and the response in the markets. investing legend, lee cooperman eall be joining us after a quick squawk box will be right back. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean.

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welcome back to "squawk box," the markets reacting this morning to donald trump's victory in the presidential election, and all of the ripple effects of that in the house. we don't know quite yet, but at least the senate, the futures right now, have been up over a thousand points really all morning long. just up 1,300 right in and out. republicans have flipped the senate at this hour. nbc news is projecting a two-seat majority, but there are still a number of races too close to call. the balance of power in the house is too close to call, in this case, too early to call. but as i pointed out a few times there, some of the betting sites do have a pretty solid probability that the house actually stays republican. >> a lot of the seats that were

up in contention that they thought maybe would be flipped, were not. and so that's why you're thinking that it's too early. >> could be mike johnson's though. >> we'll see. meantime, donald trump speaking overnight to his supporters here's what he said about the potential role, which we talked about a little earlier of robert f. kennedy jr. in his administration. >> we can add a few names like robert f. kennedy jr. he wants to do some things, and we're going to let him go to it. i just said, bobby, leave the oil to me. we have more liquid gold, oil and gas. we have more liquid gold than any country in the world. more than saudi arabia. more than russia. bobby, stay away from the liquid gold, other than that, go have a good time bobby. >> and we will see what his good time looks like. obviously there's going to be lots of debates about vaccines, the fda, hhs, all sorts of

things that could come under his purview or not. >> let's get straight to our next guest, lee cooperman is a billionaire investor, and chairman and ceo of the mega family office. lee, you have been on with us for for a while. i know you weren't supporting donald trump. i also know that you've been looking at the markets for a long time as a reluctant player in the markets. you were there, you don't have great long-term implications for what you think might be happening this morning. the equity markets at least, are pretty sharply, 1,300 points now for the dow. what do you think with the trump administration coming in. what does that mean for the markets? >> well, i think, let's face it, a function of a bunch of things. growth rates, interest rates, and confidence. and i expect trump who would have more growth, higher interest rates, and clearly the market has more confidence. that's what's being reflected this morning. and, you know, i was not in

favor of trump. i was not in favor f, you know, kamala harris either. i basically felt that we needed an adult in the room, and we didn't have an adult in the room. we still don't, in my opinion. so i think that the market is reflecting a degree of optimism that may be uncalled for. but we'll see. i'm not sure ashort any stocks, i'm short the s&p, a buck 6,400, and i think the market is down next year, if i had a guess, that's just a guess. you know, we have guns and butter, and i think guns and butter, lead to crowding out. whether he can do enough to reverse the trends, we'll have to wait and see. he does have a mandate, and i think you have to say that a country that elects donald trump is a country that's very unhappy, and you know, literally half the country is with him. half the country is against him.

he didn't win by a major majority, but he did control, and let's see what he does. i'm rooting for him. >> doesn't sound like it. >> well, i'm not negative on him. i'm negative -- >> we don't have an adult, and very unhappy country. it is what it is, i guess, lee. be happy for a couple of hours anyway today. >> you think the country's happy, joe? >> i think the country spoke in a pretty overwhelming fashion. >> because of how unhappy they are, though. >> i think there's a popular vote of people that are happy. yeah, lee, i do. >> yeah, but i think half the nation is unhappy, half the nation is happy. >> i understand that. >> will rogers' comment was if politicians had 10% of what they promised, there would be no need for heaven. trump is promising a lot. we hope he can deliver. i don't know, at the end of the day, the market is 22 times

earnings and given what's going on in the world, in the middle east, given what's going on domestically, given our fiscal situation, you know, i would think the market is very fully priced. the market is expensive against interest rates, and interest rates are up this morning. >> that's what i was going to point out, the higher yields that you're watching at this point, the ten-year is at 444 so that's a 14 basis point move from where we were yesterday at this point. not traumatic, but it definitely shows you where the bond market initially thinks that things might be headed. that may be a question of inflation. it may be a question of the yield curve normalizing. that's what gary cohn has been telling us over the last several days. what do you think, lee? >> i said this the last time i was on the show, i thought the fed would cut short rates and long rates will move on. i think the fed will cut again and long rates will move up. prior to 2008, the ten-year

government bold, in linewith nominal gdp. if you have real growth, 2 1/2, 3%, inflation of 2 1/2, 3%. the ten-year yield wouldn't be excessive. it's almost 5 or 6%. and the market does not allow for that in terms of its pricing. so, you know, my general -- i'm not a trader, and i'm not like a -- not sure of anything. but my inclination would be to sell stocks with strength. >> you said you are short, north of 6,400. above 6,400 for the s&p, and obviously we're not there this morning. you got another 500 points to get to that. you didn't think we would be there. so you're short above 6,400 of the s&p, are you short anything when it comes to bets in the tre treasury market? >> i retired in 2018, and i'm trying to keep my life simple. i have some health issues that

basically slows me down. but, no, i don't play the game as well as or as actively as i did in the past, but i would say my general view is bottoms are short. and stocks are fully valued and will more likely go down than up from here. and if one was a trader in the opening, and that the market will be down next year. but i'm not making any big adjustments at the current time. clearly there's a big wave of confidence, and you know, when you think about the confidence, just think about it, 20 former members of his administration said he was unfit to be president. you know, tariffs, that's crazy. think about it, tariffs are a relief for labor. you're basically making companies to increase production domestically, which increases demand for labor. if you can eliminate immigration, and you're going to

throw a lot of people out of the country, that's going to push up inflation. so, you know, when you're betting -- >> if the tariffs are negotiating tactics, which is what we have heard from people on his campaign. i guess we'll see. if the tariffs are a negotiating tool -- >> you heard the same thing about kamala. i'm old fashioned, i listened to what people say, not what they do, and basically, the idea that kamala was not going to do anything to tax the rich even though she spoke about that aggressively and the fact that trump is not going to do tariffs, you're relying on people doing the opposite of what they say they're going to do, and that's a risky proposition. >> where do you think markets would be this morning if harris had been elected? if she was going to do all the things that she said? >> it would go down 5%, you know, at the end of the day, you

know, more about politics than economics. the country clearly spoke, they're unhappy with the current conditions, and i don't think a lot of what trump has to do is not going to create more happiness. you know, and do we have to deal with the deficit? i think so. you know, the deficit is out of control. you know, nine years ago, simpson bowles came out with the report. everything thought it was intelligently done. nothing is done. the problem today is three times greater than it was nine years ago, so, you know, i have a conservative view. i'm happy for the country. i would be happy if bernie marcus was still alive. he was a good friend of mine. he passed away a couple of days ago. he was strongly in favor of trump. sorry he didn't live to see trump elected. but we lost a terrific

individual. and, you know, i've said in the past, i think that trump's economic ideas were superior to the democratic party, but his conduct was just so unconventional, so offensive that i couldn't vote for him. and that was -- even though i felt my pocketbook would be enriched by his being elected. >> i voted my values, not my pocketbook. and i did not vote -- i voted strictly republican in the house and senate, and i did not vote for president of either trump or harris. i wrote in mitt romney. >> lee, how do you think your pocketbook is going to be benefitted by this administration? which policies in particular, the tax laws? >> well, the pro growth. the pro growth policies will probably help my portfolio. look, i'm going to make money

this morning. and i'm inclined. i'm not a trader, but i'm inlitted inclined to think the market is joe overreacting. i'm looking for low p stocks. free cash flow, and dividends to pay me to be patient. and willingness to buy back stock. everything i look at bothers me to be honest with you. with the wiseman doesn't gain fool in the end. twice a year i visited with dr. henry seigleman, he perfected stock repurchasing to a degree that nobody understood. he was pictured on the cover of "business week" magazine as a mythical greek god who flew too close to the sun. business week was negative in 1982, even though he was buying stock back at 60% times earnings. now the market is cheering buy

backs on. you got to be flexible, but i say to myself, what the wiseman doesn't begetting, the fool doesn't end. intel bought back hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars worth of stock. now they're dependent upon government resistance. back and. you've got to be very careful. >> lee, want to thank you for joining us this morning. lee cooperman. coming up next, continuing coverage of the 2024 election and the response in the markets. after the break, we are going to show you some of the biggest movers. we're calling the anti-antitrust trade. don't go anywhere. "squawk box," this very special edition, as donald trump is our next president, returns after this.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this special edition of

"squawk box," the day after the election. donald trump, our next president. a lot of movers in the markets to watch this morning. dow up, by the way, 1,250 points. right now, i want to get to dom chu, who's looking at some of those winners. >> andrew, one of the things that traders are paying a little bit more attention to this morning, outside of the traditional sectors from a regulation standpoint, are sectors and stocks that were impacted by antitrust actions in the near to medium term, deals that were killed. the thinking being that in a trump administration, you could see, perhaps, more ability to get deals done on the merger front, so i'm going to take you through a handful of examples to give you an idea of what i'm talking about here. first on the fashion side, a recently killed merger in the court between tapestry, the coach and kate spade parent, trying to buy capri holdings. that was shelved because of antitrust concerns. those shares are now higher in part because of that slim optimism about what it could look like in the future.

another place to look at is on the airline side of things. these stocks are on the move as well. spirit airlines is up about 12.5%. frontier group, up about 5.5%, and jetblue is up about 4.5%. remember, jetblue had tried to put a deal together to buy spirit that was then scrapped by the courts so we'll see whether or not airlines are in focus. another place to keep a close eye on is on the grocery front, kroger trying to buy albertson's. kroger is up about 1.5%, so grocers in focus. one other place to watch is on the livenation front. earlier this spring, the justice department sued livenation, alleging monopolistic behavior for live events. andrew, we'll maybe try to call it perhaps casually the anti-antitrust trade. it's certainly something that traders are watching this morning as well. i'll send things back to you guys. >> dom, thank you for that report. we are going to be back in just

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all right, everybody, welcome back to "squawk box." we've watched the futures this

morning sharply higher all morning long. right now, dow futures up by more than 1,200 points. s&p futures up by 120. the nasdaq up by close to 350. the republicans have flipped the senate. at this hour, nbc news is projecting a 52-seat majority at least. there's a number of races that are still too close to call. the balance of power in the house, also too early to call, but if you're looking at betting markets, if you're listening to some of the people in the know here, it is looking much more likely like the republicans could maintain control of the house as well. right now it's 178-203. as a result of all of this, we've seen lots of moves in the market. we mentioned the futures already, but the treasury market has been the other place to watch because treasury prices have come down. treasury yields are up this morning. right now, the ten-year is yielding 4.45%, about 15 basis points above where we were at this point yesterday. the two-year at 4.27%. still a lot of questions about what this is all going to mean, which policies will be

inflationary, which will be pro growth and how that all plays out but obviously, we'll be watching all of that in the weeks and months to come. we've been talking about the markets all morning long, what this is going to mean. we've been talking about the policies all morning long, and we will continue with that. right now, we're going to hand things over to "squawk on the street," but thank you for joining us this morning, and we will see you right back here tomorrow. take care. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks look to open at all-time highs. donald trump's decisive and historic political comeback. the dollar and small caps are soaring. volatility collapses even as control of the house still remains unknown. road map begins with the stock surge following that historic election, donald trump becoming the first in over a century to win back the white house after losing it. plus, we're keeping an eye