>> kerry? >> charter communications. this stock seems to be making a term. they reported lower cap ex than expected. >> a lot of the media stocks going on the regulatory relief thoughts and possible dealmaking. our parent company is up too, by the way. joe t.? >> financials. >> see you on "closing bell." ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans, and here's what's ahead. stocks are surging today with donald trump the president-elect, and the possibility of a red sweep. small caps, banks, crypto all sharply higher. the media stocks, we'll talk about that, too. volatility is dropping, uncertainty has been removed. and one of our guests says this will be very good for three areas of the market in particular. he'll bring us the names and what he's buying. plus, wells fargo says the stage

is set for significant deal making in broadcast media. we'll look at the names to watch and how to trade the space. our analyst calls this name an early and obvious target. up 15% for the year with today's move. tweet me if you think you know it. it's not comcast, by the way. and we're just a little more than 24 hours away from the fed decision. one of our guests has noticed a shift in the fed's approach. here's here with what it means and what to expect tomorrow. before that, let's get the run through of these markets, dom. >> let's not bury the lead. you're seeing the bull on your screen for a reason, because we have record highs across the board for a lot of key parts of the market. i'll bring you the three major indexes we highlight daily. the dow industrials, and i'll point this out here. it was a record high for the dow, a record high for the s&p, and a record high for the nasdaq composite. we are sitting just about near session highs at this very moment right now. so keep in mind, these are near session highs. the dow up 1380 points, a 3.25%

gain there, 43,601. the s&p 500, north of 59 now, 5910 is the last trade, up 127 points, a 2.25% advance there. and the nasdaq composite, up 463 points for the nasdaq. that's a level of 18,904. again, all near session highs. and the u.s. ten-year treasury note yield surging up to above 4.4%, at one point we were north of that amount. these are the highest level of that benchmark gg oing back to july 1st, just to give you context there. key parts of the market to keep an eye on as this trump trade plays out. tesla shares, of course, elon musk is the ceo and the clowe relationship between he and the president-elect, helping to drive chthose shares up. bank stocks, very much up on this optimism about deregulation

down the line, wells fargo up 14.5%. check steel makers up 15%. baker hughes on oil services, up 8.5%. on the other side, solarstocks like enphase energy, down 17.5%, perhaps some fears that we will not focus as much on clean energy in the upcoming administration. and bitcoin prices, kelly mentioned that, $75,348 or so, north of $75,000 is the current record highs. bitcoin prices up 7.5%, to $74,592. we talked about it, crypto currency, bitcoin, there's this optimism that a future trump administration will be friendlier to cryptocurrency. >> i think a crypto entrepreneur won that senate seat, as well. so it feels as though they're fully ensh rined into the

upcoming administration. some bond traders, you can call them vigil antes. treasury could deploy ad 700 billion liquidity ba zooka to offset pressures. joining me is dan clifton. great to see you. welcome. >> thank you for having me, kelly. i appreciate being on and lots of good stuff to talk about today. >> didn't you say this was the most investable election you had ever seen? >> no doubt. you're seeing that play out this morning. just about every financial asset is affected by this election, because it's dealing with trade policy, and it's dealing with the bond markets. so you're seeing the indian rupi outperform the chinese yuan. that makes sense. you can take it all the way down to the sector level, as i

mentioned before. kr cryptocurrency, and others. this as wide as we've ever seen it in terms oh of what is investable from the election. it's not just a one-day trade. there's going to be an earnings impact, because there's significant policy change, and there was a binary difference between trump and harris. the market was pricing this like 55-45 on election day. you're seeing that remaining 45% continue. >> a couple different directions we could go with this, just to circle back to the comment we made in your intro. there's a $700 billion liquidity bazooka. explain what you think could happen with bond yields. >> i totally get the idea that bond yields go up on trump. it's true because we believe the republicans are going to be declared winners of the house, meaning they can do as much fiscal legislation as they can. so we get that trade. what will happen is on january 1st, the u.s. government will hit its debt ceiling. when the u.s. government hits the debt ceiling, the government

cannot issue anymore debt. there is a fund sitting outside the banking sector, and that will be used to pay the bills of the federal government. and this is relatively new, it's a post covid thing. when we do that, money from outside the banking sector coming into the banking sector. what that does is it loosens financial conditions. so bond yields come down, the dollar comes down, it's 60% correlated to the ten-year yield. 80% correlated to the dollar. and that is going to be so much bigger than anything donald trump can do on inflation or deficits. and it's going to happen faster. by the way, kelly, that $700 billion will be deployed in the first quarter. it's not even annualized. so it's a january-to-march type of issue. and it will have a major impact on financial markets, and why we didn't really mind whoever won the election. we knew that this liquidity

bazooka was sitting behind there and trump will be the b beneficiary of that. we also believe the deficit is coming down this year, which is very much in opposition to what you're seeing with everybody bidding on the bond markets. >> i'm going to have to rethink everything if you're right. that explains the euphoria, because yields, the deficit, the debt situation is a big constraint. i want to update our viewers, nbc news has just called michigan for president-elect trump, giving him 291 electoral votes to harris' 223. are there any other investment implications that you see, especially ones that are out of consensus right now, and any reason to doubt the duration of the stock market rally? >> well, what i would say is the market is trading all countries as if they're going to get hit by donald trump tariffs. trump is very likely going to increase tariffs on china.

so you want to be cautious of u.s. companies with exposure to china. you want to be cautious of china until they come up with their stimulus. but the market is trading europe as though they're going to be hit with those tariffs. i just don't think trump will put a 10% tariff on all imported goods. so there seems to be a mispricing that's building in that, because all tariffs are being treated the same, and they're very different proposals. number two, i would argue that, because trump is a strong dollar candidate, at least until we get to this liquidity bazooka, is that technology is a trump sector. nobody talks about that. everybody wants to talk about banks. >> you're so right. going back to monday, each yesterday, we were looking at markets and i was thinking all the trump trades are rallying, but big tech is rallying, too. i thought it was a red herring. it was rallying because of a trump win, not in spite of it. >> two factors, number one is

the dollar strengthens, creating the yen carry trade feeding into the nasdaq. the second factor is that the market just thinks trump is better protector of taiwan. taiwan's stock market was the most correlated stock market in the world to the u.s. stock market in the leadup to the election overall. that's because trump will be more keeping china off guard relative to harris overall. if that's the case, then that's going to feed through to semis, and the semis were beneficiaries of trump winning. i think trump will win the semi market, the same way joe biden is doing. on net, a protection of the semiconductor industry, a stronger dollar relative to the yen, are both positive for the u.s. technology stocks. one final point on this, people say they're going to go after the google and the big tech companies, i get that. but we just completed an analysis and found that 40% of the s&p market cap is under

department of justice investigation right now. >> 45%, i thought it was. >> 40, 45%, somewhere in that range. like trump can't do much worse than that. >> there's a lot of final questions i want to ask, including the biggest difference between trump 2.0 regime versus the 1.0 regime. but do you think he'll be constrained at all, if you don't think the bond markets are a constraint, what about the midterms? he only has this term, he's got the confidence of the mandate he's just been given. sit possible the window of time for action could only be a year or two? >> absolutely. again, we think that this is an executive order presidency. what he's got to do in congress is extend the tax cuts and raise the debt ceiling. he probably has to deal with the aca. but my sense is that the action is going to be for this year, and that means that you're going to set out very quickly. if you do end up with a republican sweep, which looks likely, the budget committee will move very fast to open up

the reconsciliation window to gt these tax cuts done. but trump is talking about offsetting these tax cuts. he's got a lot of different offsets. the house budget committee has been working for six months to create the offsets to do this. what is are they? >> it's never easy to do that, but people will be surprised. the congressional budget office is assuming the deficit is going up. we think it's coming down by $300 billion, no matter who gets elected. he does a little less student loan forgiveness and will get a bigger tailwind than that. people will be surprised by the budget deficit coming down, qt ending, more foreign buyers of treasury and less supply that. means the deficit will be at a better place in 2025 than it was in 2024. >> you are the personification of this market mood. i think you captured it perfectly. we need to follow up on other

things to get into the weeds on how this works, but for now, appreciate you joining us today. >> well, thank you, kelly. 30-year bonds went up for auction. did you see the move in those yields last night? what did that mean for the auction? let's ask rick santelli. >> well, i'll tell you what, let's say that you like the longest maturity on the 30-year bond and think it's a good investment. yesterday, it was what? it settled at 4.44%. today it's at 4.64%. you probably like it a whole lot better, it's 4.69 now. you would like it better if, indeed, if you got nor yield? that's what happened at this auction. we had a big concession. the selloff pushed yields to a point where investors were enamored with it. the auction grade for demand, a plus, one of the best auctions i've seen in a long time. 25 billion 30-year bonds garnering a yield of 6.08%.

the one issued market was at 4.63, which means lower yield on the auction is a higher price for the government, which is the seller. and some historic numbers here. the bid-to-cover at 2.64 went $2.64 chasing every dollar's worth of securities available. that's a high number and the best since january of 2018. if you look at direct bidders, over 27%, i have a 20 something year track record on auctions. i can't find a higher direct bidding number. if you look at dealers, dealers hardly had anything left at the buffet table to take. they took 10.2%. the smallest since june of '23. it was a great auction, and everybody's wondering the same thing, what happens to interest rates if we have a president that's going to try to juice growth to help with inflation and deficits? well, i think it will be a help. but none of this is going to

happen overnight. i still caution, debt and deficits matter, and interest rates are going to be stubbornly high for a while yet. that's my upon. kelly, back to you. >> rick, those yields are below 4% on the 30 year before the fed cut and we jumped 20 basis points in the past 12 hours or so, right? >> just consider this, we're at 3.6 on the two-year the day before the fed cut 50 basis points. we're at 3.64 on a ten-year before the fed cut 50 basis points. the fed's going to meet tomorrow. i wonder how they're going to look at these historic moves in the equity markets, and have the nerve to actually cut interest rates. certainly doesn't seem like any tightness in capital markets is affecting the equities. >> especially if your loosening is coming in. rick, for now, thanks. >> i agree with everything dan said. i think that the kind of factual here is without growth, yields

would have gone higher. so to me, the real issue is, they're going to stop going up as aggressively. i just contidon't see them goinn much. >> which creates a budget problem. rick, thank you, sir, always appreciate it. stocks are soaring, and the dow at new highs right now as donald trump is elected the 47th president, he was also the 45th. my next guest says now that a layer of uncertainty has been removed from the market, there will be clear erwiners and losers. joining me with those names is charlie. good to see you, especially because i've been wondering how much of a move we might have, and turns out the answer is none of one. so if people are now looking to chase this a little bit, where do you think they should be looking? >> well, one of the things that hasn't gotten enough attention this morning, this is a relief valley against the uncertainty that a lot of people were predicting. a lot of people thought we might have a contested election or

riots and january 6th. now that is off the table, and that's very good for the stock market. it's very bad for bonds. people buy bonds when they are afraid. that seems to be off the table. that is a lot of what is going on today, and what is getting help is small cap value. you see the russell 2,000 value index up over 5.5%, and that's the kind of sector that most hire when there's a relief rally about less risk. >> biggest opening gap for the russell since 2008 and 2020. so that -- and it has a lot of catchup to play. are you concerned that high rates are going to remain an earnings headwind for that or no? >> fascinating. small companies don't borrow treasury levels, they borrow bond yields, and bond yields are going to tighten a little bit here. so the actual issuance level for a mid-sized company is probably

not actually up as much as the rates are, the government rates are. so, in fact, i would be even a little bit bullish on short term rates coming down. a lot of these companies have short-term maturities, short commercial pay for the rest, short rates are coming down and the long end of the curve is pretty good for the bond market. >> goldman sachs, let's look at these banking bankers are comin. that was before the election results. now if there's a green light for more deal making, you can add that spur. goldman is up. how much more could these stocks run? >> well, they're not nearly as cheap as they used to be. buy it at one, sell it at two. buy it at book and sell it at two times book. goldman sachs got below book

about a year ago, and now it's still under two times book, but it's getting close to two times tangible book. so not nearly as cheap as it used to be. shorm-term, all kinds of momentum. the yield curve is a very positive for investment banks, which own longer term maturities. so the yield curve is going to have very positive effect on their near term earnings and there will be a lot of ipos. the short term outlook is very good. >> you like regional al banks, well. on the regional bank piece, i have to ask the higher rates question. >> same basic model that banks tend to -- regional banks in particular -- fund themselves with deposits with short term rates, and they tend to lend out longer and more fixed rate. that has changed a little over the years, but it's still true.

they tend to fund short and lend long. so a normally slow p.o. curve is very good for banks. we've seen some positive surprises. regional banks are going to benefit a lot from a better m&a environment. there are probably too many banks in america, there probably need to be fewer. the current administration has been tough on bank mergers, and i think that will loosen up. >> energy, you think there could be -- i don't know if you're still in a.p.a. any other ideas that come to mind now? >> i think lng is an extremely important opportunity for the country and stock market. natural gas sells for about $2.77 in the u.s., it sells for over $13 in japan. there have been for 50 years, tankers going from the middle east to the u.s. with oil. there should be tankers going from the u.s. to asia with natural gas, with liquid natural gas. this is a huge industry that

could be very important to american prosperity and companies, it's been a tough year for them, but they have big exposure to u.s. natural gas. the current administration has blocked exports, and the new administration will be much more open minded. >> why is kena metal up 50%? >> they manufacture their tool and dyes in the u.s. that is a very important trade today. if you make things in the u.s., that's a great outcome -- the outcome from last night is very positive. >> new 52-week high today and shares are soaring. charlie, thank you for your time today. >> thanks, kelly. the election is over, so now we turn to another key d.c. decision tomorrow. the fed's next move on rates. my next guest says powell is on a mission to get back to a terminal rate of 4% sooner than later, and will ease by a quarter point every meeting

until we get there. paul mccully is a professor at georgetown. and cnbc's steve liesman is with us, as well. paul, how does the overlay of these markets, the reaction to trump and the election outcome you think affect their decision making? >> i think it makes it more uncertain when we're getting out into '25, because the whole gang out in '25 is figuring out what the terminal rates should be, which is another way of saying, what is our star, where will they finish the easy process? i look at that as a '25 exercise. for the rest of this year, they're still very much in the recalibration mode, which is to get the fed funds rate, the policy rate from the long place to a more sensible place. and i'm of the viewpoint that it

will get down to 4 3/8. that takes a big chunk of the recalibration process to the finish line and out next year they would go down further. but i think right now, between now and 4% effectively -- i'll never say this, but will be closing its eyes and cutting 25 each meeting. >> you don't think that trump's election, the market reaction equates itself to a loosening of financial conditions? in other words, does the election equal a fed rate cut? >> i don't think so. it depends on how you measure financial conditions, buzz you look at it as risk appetite from the standpoint of pe multiples and all that on risk assets. yes, it would be easy from that perspective. but you have to put in the long-term interest rates, which is the other direction. so i don't think it obviates the need whatsoever for the fed to

normalize the yield curve. we can't talk about the fed stopping and easing process from a starting point of an inverted yield curve. that doesn't make any sense. the issue is at what level are they going to reslope the curve, bringing short rates down relative to long rates. i think four is the number we should be looking for now. >> we're around 4.8% now. i wish they would go back to a single rate and not this range. >> yeah, well, it makes the math just a little bit harder, kelly. but that's why i'm around so you don't have to do it. i will tell you what the mid point is, and that's kind of where the market orients itself. >> thank you. says thi >> i think there's an interesting moment coming up. i think the fed brings it down 50, get down 100 basis points

and then think about it. but then the fiscal policy question becomes, i'll become up a little bit. making monetary policy a combination of looking at the current data and also blending in your outlook of what could be very dramatic fiscal policy changes. let's say there's a tariff regime or further cuts in taxes. and then later in your question, kelly, whether or not this is all stimulative, whether or not it ends up being a combination 06 push me, pull you in some restrictive. it's going to be very tricky for the fed. it doesn't want to go late, but it can't get too far out in front of either, a, the political process, or b, the effect of the things that are inactive. because when people said to me when i was reporting the potential impact of the trump economic plans was, you have to

think about the whole package. well, it's a kind of interesting package there. there are tariffs, tax cuts, de-regulation, potential cuts in federal spending. it's going to be difficult for the fed to navigate this, and will do so very slowly. >> paul, i do think there's a lasting implication to the outcome of the election in the sense that the next time the fed fiscal authorities step up with massive stimulus, i think they're going to think about how years after the fact when inflation is the resulting outcome, the electorate remains furious about that. it feels like yesterday was a big step towards the public saying we don't want you to go that route in the future. if not, if the existing administration or if harris had taken office, i believe the message would have been going forward, go as big as you can. people are ultimately going to come out on the side of real wage growth and so forth. but that's not the verdict yesterday. and i wonder if that will

restrain the fed and fiscal authority going forward. >> i'm not sure, kelly, is the honest answer. monetary policy, as chair powell says all the time, has to take fiscal policy as a given as the will of oh the people, and not all fiscal policies are created equal. sometimes it's skewed to the rich, and sometimes to the nonrich. so they have to be careful about getting in front of any fiscal package rngs and then even when the package arrives, they have to parse it through to see if it's stimulative to the economy. so i don't think that there's a huge amount of message to be taken from this, from the standpoint of fiscal policy. that's the product of democracy. and the fed has to choose how to handle that in the context of

its mandate. right now, it's very close to mandate. so it's in a really, really good place. and if physical policy or trade policy or tariff policy pushes the economy away from a mandate consistent place, then the fed, not then the fed can recalibrate forward guidance, and where it cities our star is. and that's the big issue. where is our star, which is another way of saying, where is -- >> i think it's here. i'm looking around and thinking maybe our star is 5%. but i am in the minority on that. gentlemen, thank you both. we'll pick it up next time if you will oblige. still to come, cbs is having its best day since the start of the pandemic. is it the earnings? we have a mixed score. after the break, we'll tell you what the new ceo is saying about the future of the business.

shares up 11%. and big tech is facing serious anti-trust head winds, but with president-elect trump promising to roll back biden's ai safety. and here are some of the names hitting all-time highs today. some pttrey sizable moves there, as well. back after this. ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the dow with dia. getting there starts here.

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welcome back. we have a market flash on cbs. bertha, what's happening? >> it's seeing one of its best gains in four years after reporting results. revenue did top expectations, better than expected volumes . the ceo just three weeks on the job, naming new leadership and telling me that he wants investors to know that he's intent on moving with urgency to turn things around, especially in the ailing medicare advantage area. he says --

>> overall, medicare advantage and the big players are rallying today, in part on the trump win. the feeling is that they're going to face a lot less regulatory pressure, especially on medicare during the new administration, and less pushback on m ja&a. on the other side, there's a sense that we could see more pressure on state medicaid programs and the affordable care act. bank of america downgrading oscar health. that pullback on obamacare is weighing on hospitals, the prospect they will see fewer people insured under those plans. >> bertha, thank you very much for now.

could trump's win unlock a new artificial intelligence boom? deidre bosa is here to talk us through that. deidre, i thought we were already in an ai boom. >> we are, and now it can continue. the ai industry under trump is likely to be even less regulated, more volatile and pitted against the threat of china. add in the musk factor, it could mean a shakeup in the ai leader board. something that sam altman may be trying to get ahead of, as his nemesis, musk, is fully in trump's ear. he posted his congrats to the president-elect and added, it is critically important that the u.s. maintains its lead in developing ai with democratic values. musk has criticized google and openai and pushed the development of open source models, which his startup has been developing. some critics of open source argue that they're riskier than closed source ones because they

allow unrestricted access to advance ai capabilities. there's been reports that china has taken advantage of that. countering china, that's been a central narrative of trump's campaign and within the ai industry itself, making america first in ai would pave the way for power plants necessary to support development. so in short, kelly, ai under a second trump administration, likely to accelerate. and we're seeing the early reads through that. >> one of the biggest secular growth stories we have seen in a long time. deidre, thank you very much. deidre bosa. now to tyler mathisen for the cnbc news update. >> kelly, thank you very much. north korean troops have engaged in combat for the first time in russia. two u.s. officials tell reuters the troops were in combat on november 4th. earlier this week, the pentagon said at least 10,000 north korean troops were in the region. arizona voters approved a ballot measure that would give state and local law enforcement more power in immigration

issues. it allows state and local law enforcement to deliver migrants to federal custody, if convicted of entering the country illegally. and the massachusetts state supreme court is hearing arguments today in karen reed's effort to dismiss murder charges related to the death of her police officer boyfriend. reed's lawyers argue the charges of second degree murder and leaving the scene should be dismissed because of double jeopardy. a retrial is set for january but both have asked for april. kelly, back to you. >>time, see you soon. thank you very much. still ahead, under a gop controlled fcc, wells farg o sas it's the most obvious target for early -- >> and here are some of the dow

components hitting all-time highs today, including goldman, jpmorgan, amex, visa and teilr. ldman and jpm having their best day in over four years. back after this.

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welcome back. the dow is up nearly 1500 points, as wall street cheers trump's victory. the stock market we should say. he's widely seen as pro business, but not cutting corporate taxes that much this time around. but could it mean a boost in m&a activity? dom chu is here with a closer look. >> largely on anti-trust concerns, for much of that with a department of justice and the federal trade commission weighing in on many of the mergers we have seen killed or shelved in some way, shape or form. so some of the traders are watching what may be characterized as the anti-anti-trade, if you will. deals that have either been killed, shelved or in process with regard to some of the

regulatory hurdles. i'll point out one, a recently killed merger between tapestry trying to buy capri holdings. now shares are up 7% right now. tapestry shares up 1 1/3%. is there a possibility where they could try to revive some of these deals? that's something to watch there. moving on to another key industry that's been the subject of anti-trust regulation, that is the airline business. remember, spirit airlines was trying to get bought out by jetblue. that deal was then killed. spirit airline shares are up 12% right now. jetblue up too. so keep an eye on the airlines. and the grocery side of things, with albertson's trying to be acquired by kroger, kroger's shares up 3.5%. so grosser also be a key anti-trust focus. and this one trade, which is

livenation. you recall just this past may, the justice department brought an anti-trust suit against them alleging monopoly practices. live nation shares up 6.5% right now on possibly some of those types of things emerging there. so a big focus there, the anti-anti-trust trade. back over to you. >> dom, thank you. our next guest says there's another sector that could see deal making under the new administration. broadcast media. here with the names primed for a deal is steven. we've been hearing a lot of chatter about this one. before we dive into where you think this could happen, are we so sure this administration, with vance instead of pence, will be a green light for deal making to happen? >> the best that we have seen a trump administration for the fcc and broadcast regulation before from 2016 to 2020, and over that period, there was a bunch of deals that happened for the tv

broadcasters. so based on that and republican control of the fcc, we're expecting another round of potential consolidation. >> our mist try chart, why do you think that's the first target? >> tegna was to be acquired like some of the charts that was just on about these deals that almost got down, set to be acquired and that deal fell apart in 2023. largely because of efforts by the fcc, and as a result of that, tegna is an attractive acquisition target. there are those out there probably interested in it. that's why the market is pricing in the ability for that to happen again. >> et's just thoughter perment and say green light to all media deals. they're allowed to consolidate and do what they can. what does the landscape look like two, three, four years?

what is the ultimate end goal? >> so the tv broadcasters, this is a very specific industry that focuses on local news, as well as the carriage of national sports content that. is a highly regulated industry, so we're bullish that a republican fcc will change some of the rules. so those station groups, they will be fewer of them and each bigger, that tends to be good for their valuations, and they are facing a lot of threats. media overall has been a consolidating sector in the recent past disney buying fox, warner brothers merging with discovery. and many in media think they'll continue to look at opportunities to put together, whether it's streaming services or studios, to compete against netflix, amazon, apple. >> fox shares we were just showing are up 50% year-to-date but trading at an all-time high.

why? >> so first is, you know, it's a huge political news cycle going on, and fox news is the biggest cash flow asset within fox. fox owns tv stations, and those tv stations, like those broadcast stations we have been talking about, have had a record year for political ad spending. third, fox has a lot of sports, which has been very strong. lastly, my perspective is fox news has not talked about how it will get its sports content into streaming. >> what happens to warner brothers, paramount, peacock or any spinoff that's correct take place with nbc and its networks? >> comcast spoke to maybe the possibility of spinning off some of its legacy cable networks. we'll see if that becomes a rollup strategy within the industry. this is something that warner brothers has thought about.

maybe the same with paramount. the challenge in both cases that those networks do have to travel with debt in order to not leave the company that's left two levers. and that's the challenge. comcast talked about spinning off its legacy networks in a well-capitalized venture. so price and depth are probably the biggest obstacles to others trying to follow suit. >> sounds like an analogy for the country at large right now. steven, thank you so much. coming up, we'll check on the name bucking the trend today, the worst performer on the s&p is super micro, shares down 22% to be at their lowest self-since may of last year. the server making announcing preliminary and unaudited weak first quarter results and lowering its sales guidance. the company went on to say they don't know when they'll file annualized results. but they are working to become current again with its financial reporting. the company has until november

15th to get its finances in order or risk being de-listed again from the nasdaq. and they are a big customer omfr nvidia. we're back after this on "the exchange." exccash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out

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we've got some more breaking news on the race for the white house. harris has called president-elect trump to congratulate him on his win, according to a senior harris aide and will deliver her concession speech today at 4:00 p.m. eastern at howard university in washington, d.c. you can see the electoral count, 291 for trump, 223 for harris. coming up, the trump trade surging today. bitcoin, tesla, it's all higher, with tesla hitting a 52-week

high. but how long can the rally last? we'll t gea technical take on that, next.

♪ welcome back. with major indices hitting record highs, let's dig in further on the trump trade. our next guest expects this rally to continue through year end. join us ari walt. a lot of people will say i missed out or it's too late. i'm glad you're here. what do you see? what jumps out to you? >> i'm reminded of market watcher paul montgomery's line, which is -- he said the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. we new highs, cap-weighted s&p, nasdaq 100. russell 2000 small caps, risk-on leadership in the financial sector and the industrial sector as well. we've got credit spreads reaching new -- it's narrowest spreads of the cycle. interest rates are moving higher, and seasonally strong

tailwinds behind us in november and december of an election year, typically where you see a year-end rally. from my view, these are the conditions that are consistent with an up cycle that should extend into 2025, stick with the market, buy pullbacks. the bull cycle attacks here. >> what does that tell you? do you worry about it? do you stick broadly? or do you go with the place with his the most momentum? like regional banks, bitcoins, the small caps. i guess it's the cynic or pest mist that you look at some of these moves, you jump in and they're just pulling forward a lot of future gains. >> there is some of that. that's why we have to stick with our methodology, our discipline. we are momentum investors, and so, as far as the areas that exhibit strong momentum, you know, again thinking about the

trump trades, u.s. over world makes sense to us. the world markets are hitting new multi-decade relative lows at the sector level. i think it's sticking with financial industrials. they have been overweight for the entire year, just given the broadness of strength in capital markets, and infrastructure on the industrial side as well. conversely. i suppose small caps were using more as more of a market signal. i still prefer the relative strength, but the fact that small adapts are working, i think just continues to give us conviction that the trade we do like should continue to work. if there's going to be a rollover, it probably does happen in that small cap index first. >> the last several years, i've asked traders about this, and 2022 is a different story, it was a weak market in october, and it didn't get weak, but

otherwise we have seen such strength. is there any reason to believe we're not going to have a repeat of that pattern? >> you -- >> in a really and run right into the end of the year. >> i think it's set up that way. here's here how you have to think about it. the road map, historically speaking what has happened. typically there's strength, nonin q4, and then what is happening now. you can't just go based on seasonals and historical patterns alone. when what was happening in the market right here right now confirming the road map, it does add to our conviction here. we had a down tick in october, markets down 1%, historically consistent with that road map. now they're start to get break higher into the seasonal strong patch. i think the setup is there, as we moved into the third year of this bull cycle, which in our view is starting to attain some of those average thresholds.

i would argue we haven't reached overvalued levels yet, either. >> three charts on bitcoin, on tesla, and also on the ten-year. when you say bullish on the ten year, does that mean xwreelds keep rising? >> well, ten year we can speak about, probably less bullish on that market in particular in terms of interest rates. i think the rates are being supported by the repricing in economic growth. next resistance at that 4.5%, with some bigger longer resistance at 4.7. i think fed policy and just this later stage cycle could limit that up side, but they're well as it is. where we're seeing breakouts, bit counsel and tesla, again, looking tell strength, moves through resistance levels, bitcoin getting above

year-to-date levels, sake at in tesla. bitcoin 100k or no? >> it will get through. ugti it should get there. ari, thank you so much. that does it for "the exchange." i'll see you on "power lunch" i'll see you on "power lunch" with tyler, right after the and the entire lifecycle of a mortgage. to help inform trade decisions, our pricing and reference data covers millions of instruments. break. don't go anywhere. can help re-e your workflow. in energy, our oil and natural gas data is used by global traders, while our energy transition data helps navigate the shift to a low carbon economy. in mortgages, our data covers the life of a loan, from origination to secondary markets. we can meet your data need wherever you are. whether it's pre-trade analytics, pricing or post-trade reporting, our data can offer a foundation

for sound decision making helping markets participants to manage risk and spot opportunity. (♪♪) do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out

if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans,