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mathisen. yes, we have a huge rally on wall street following donald trump's election victory. all three averages at record highs. over the next hour we'll look at stocks and sectors making big move, and asking if there's a one-day rally or if there's more to come. to me it seems a factor of two things, the idea that the trump administration already business friendly, de-regulatory, and he relief that people feel there was a resolution. >> this is the kind of uncertainly -- certainty they didn't want. the nasdaq and russells were up about 4%, 5%. incredible. bitcoin soaring to a new record and getting back up to 75 and then some this afternoon, so it's picking up more momentum. exactly what the crypto community is looking for or thinking will happen? we have a fed decision, just to make it even richer this week,

coming tomorrow as yields have soared since the last meeting, which was a 50 base-point cut. we start with the huge rally on weight after donald trump is elected president now for a second time. this is just a one-day rally or sustainable? mary ann bartell is at sanctuary wealth, and bob pisani is here. mary ann is this a short-term reaction or something that might be more enduring? >> i think this is something more enduring. we think the market was actually positioned to rally. we were getting buy signals prior to the election. we've been looking for the market to trade up near 6,000 by the end of the year. in fact we introduced a 6,000 target in the first quarter of this year. i really am liking the action i'm seeing and the breakouts

that i'm seeing. i think this is setting up a market that will do very well in 2025. i think, you know, extended tax cuts can help hit the bottom line of corporate earnings. i think that's another reason why you're actually seeing the markets rally so strongly. what do high and rising bond yields tell you, mary ann? and what do they portend for equities? >> i also think that part of having a strong economy. when i look at yields, rear rallying within a down trend, particularly the two year, i think they can get higher and rally into the end of the year. seasonally we tend to see rates rise as we go into the end of

the year. i actually think we're going to see interest rates come down. that will be another reason why equities can rally, and why multiples might actually expand. >> bob, let me turn to you to let me highlight some of the notable movers. clean energy and other areas are under a significant amount of pressure as well. you have promises of less regulation, the fed cutting rates, a strong economy, and earnings that are already strong going into this. my heavens, you can't write a better scenario for the stock market the question for me is can this translate into real earnings growth on top of what we are already seeing. in the case of banks, yes, higher rates, generally good for banks, less regulation promises

out there, some merger deals like capital one/discover that might go through. can it help elsewhere? we have tariff promises out there. that could potentially help things like the steel industry. we're seal steel stocks respond. yes, there are areas where earnings growth can definitely occur. this higher rates thing is a problem. there's something that doesn't gel here with tax cuts. 70% of the pending is on medicare, social security and defense. something doesn't quite gel in that story. >> let me turn to the question of bitcoin you have strongly, 75,000, where do you see it going? and what is the propellant? >> so, it's really hard to put a valuation on bitcoin. we rely on the technicals. we've had a significant

breakout? bit bitcoin. i think it's targeting in the near term up towards 100,000. what a lot of people may not be aware of is it's been the best performing asset class. it brought out in the first quarter of this year, and consolidated, and only recently broke out again. i think you'll be hearing a lot about crypto, and a lot about bitcoin in the coming weeks, months and quarters. >> mary ann, on that point i had friends texting me, i shouldn't have sold my democratic oge coin or bitcoin, but full amendment they still worry or think about it as more of just, um, sort of a silly kind of empty or perhaps even shady kind testify thing. so, how do you -- maybe we're past that point, but these are people that wish they had held on to it. >> well, kelly, i would first tell them it's not too late.

bitcoin itself is really being treated as a currency. as an asset, a store of value. all the other cryptos really are -- most of them are a form of technology. adding a portion, but this is really a demographic move if you talk to young investors, they already have significant exposure to the crypto market. if you talk to the baby boomers, many don't even have exposure. i think there's a big demographic divide within in space. i've been very bullish, and i stay bullish.

bob, is there an m&a boom over the horizon? >> my goodness, you could probably see it. even elsewhere, you know, nippon steel and u.s. steel, they were up today. that was contested by not only the biden administration, but even donald trump said he was opposed to it, and yet it's still up today. again, some of this is on the tariff play here. leena kahn is one of the least liked women on wall street -- people on wall street. another one is gary gensler. i think you'll see dozens of lawsuits against the s.e.c. for overreaching on regulation. one way that people are enthusiastic that they're hope um a newer regime may see a lot

of this go away. always great to see both of you. the bond when they delivered that rate cut. he's here with more buzz and discussion, rick. we have a terrific bond auction today.

>> what are your thoughts today? here it is, and why are those things happening? it's structural inflationary pressurers here. >> you don't think your, the reality is trump is telling -- what the world wants, populism, a rebalances of inequality. if that happens, that's structurally inflationary. tariffs, we may need them? , but that's inflationary. that's what the curve steepener is all about. once that gets going, you have bigger structure issues, inflation can be entrenched. >> i can't disagree with any of that. even at a 460-ish 30-year bond yield, do you really think the market is petrified of a huge bottom of inflation.

i would think we would get a whole lot more for that fear factor, truly. ithink people areful of what is coming. >> and it. >> your imports go cheaper, right? >> we're not importing as much. you raise tariffs enough, at the end of the day, look, that's bullish of assets.

>> it's roughly 6 trillion. >> quese is coming, you better prepared for it. look at what happened, we are going to use qe i think the fed should over-ease. they could make adjustmental able we will run things very hot. >> and while we're talking about it, you're the smartest volatility guy i've ever talked to. don't you think when people say

america first that's patriotic versus people want to make this an evil dynamic? when people have families, they think of their family first? >> america first is important, but if we're going to be the biggest, strongist economy, we need to be a big global steward. >> that's where we disagree. >> i think we have to do both. >> we can be nigher globally, but i don't want to be overly welcoming. look how china can repaid us. >> it needs to be a balanced policy. >> i agree. we've had no balance. >> everyone is in their own corner. we need to do both. >> you've heard it from we need a kumbaya movement here, jim. back to kellie and tyler. >> thank you both. another big vote is set for tomorrow. how will a trump presidency impact the policy going forward?

we'll ask a member of our mock fed panel next. "power lunch" will be right back.

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welcome back. a federal reserve is beginning the two-day meeting in washington. the consensus is for the fed to cut by another quarter point. the majority of our mock fed panel agrees. don peebles wants another half-point cut. he would vote for that if he were part of the fed. julia coronado is the founder and president of macro policy perspectives. great to see you. how do the results and the

market reaction with bond yields and stocks doing what they are factor into the decision this week? >> yes, i think in the near term, the fed will be as want to be as steady a hand as possible. they have already snindicated a5 point. they're also going to be working on the timing of the policies, and what can be done through immigration and tariffs can happen well before any fiscal -- so the timing will matter to the fed's decision and the state of the economy. the market reaction has mixed signals, because higher real rates certainly could be a headwind to the economy. on the other hand we could have an additional tailwind from an enthusiastic stock market. the fed, when it comes to

financial conditions, they take their time, see what persists, this is a one-day move, what shakes out? >> why are long-term yield rising when the fed's yields are falling? what is that telling you? what is one saying versus what the other is saying? >> i think we're building in more term premium. there is some more inflation, but inflation that comes from tariffs tends to be demand destructive, so it doesn't necessarily leave a long-temple footprint on inflation. what we do have is a reshaping of the global order, the global economic order, you know, in trade wards, shifting national security alignments. that just means a risk yes world and more term premium. you know, a lot of trump's policy proposals would be deficit expanding if he doesn't

ultimately get that sweep with control of the house. he could implement some of those big deficit expanding policies, giving -- >> so the rising yields are reflecting the possibility of a riskier, more uncertainly world, right? >> yes. i think that's a fair assessment. >> interesting you say that, julia, because the drop in gold prices has people expecting the opposite, and all three wars broke out under biden's term. >> but we don't know what will happen with the wars. the middle east is fraught with conflict which would be red-hot even with a trump administration. taiwan is a whole uncertainty. the security of europe now, we have to cast that in a different light. so, you know, rather than focusing on the near-term timing

of these things in a bigger sense, this era is truly behind us now, and it's a world of competing poles of power. that's a riskier back drop. >> what happens to jay powell? >> i think chair powell will tick around through his full term. i think ultimately we know trump would like to have more of a voice in setting monetary policy, but he will not want to royal markets anymore than they already are. they likes low rates, he's not getting them now, but if the disrupt the fed structure, that might actually backfire and cause even more uncertainly. i think chair powell probably serves out his term, and then president trump will have an opportunity to put in his own

fed chair. the vice chair of supervise is another question. will michael barr stay in his term? that could give trump an opportunity to reshape regulatory policy. >> do you think it's a low possibility that chair powell would offer to resign for the president to accelerate where he gets the -- i don't think chair powell's term doesn't end until 2026. >> i do not expect him to offer to resign. that's not the way the fed is structured or operates. one of the -- the status, and the u.s. financial stability has been this kind of overlapping, you know, ten years of the fed, evenhanded through shifts in administrations, not a political position overtly.

it's met to be a more medium-term view. you know, the economy is doing just fine. there's not a problem to be solved. trump will inhaired an economy that's soft landed and is moving along just fine. >> julia, thank you. appreciate it. still to come, we'll dive deeper into the fed decision. "market navigator" is next.

welcome back to "power lunch." take a look at the market. the russells are up 4.5%, dow is up 3.5%, or 1500 points. s&p, nasdaq better than 2% gains as well. dom, what do we pick from? >> let's talk about the election. it's largely behind us, not completely, but traders are turning to what's happening today. the fed's two-day policy meeting

kicks off today, with a discussion tomorrow. our next guest says regardless of what the fed does, longer dated treasury notes and bonds should be a key focus. joining us is mike khouw. thanks for joining us. when we are talking about options, etps and the options on them, you're looking at the longer dated bond etf, ticker elt, what is the trade and why? >> tlt, first of all, you won't be alone by trading this thing. sew as much as activity we could possibly see. the busiest have to be expiring just in a regular way.

we're see a lot of volume in those. and, of course, if the buy puts on tlt, you're betting the long bond goes down, which is another way of say you're betting the long rates will go higher. it is possible for the fed to lower -- we're usually talking about the short end of the curve. basically the gist of this is, net higher prices, and growth and inflationary pressures, long rates could go higher. >> if that's the case, you're betting on downside prices. when you're playing the down side of things, you typically want to be down long side

protection. to me that screams buys a put op option. >> that's exactly right. that's what the most active traders were doing today. paying about a dollar a contract for that. consider that's essentially a money put, and moved more than two bucks a day. there's a lot of duration, of course, it's a long dated, and it's sensitive to long rates will be quite high. we're seeing that. that's one way that people could speculate rates could continue to steepen. that is, that the long end will go up, even as the short end comes down. >> what about the risk/reward on that trade. in this case, you're buying an option, a premium up. it says maybe the most you can lose is what you've paid for the op option. >> the worst-case loss is a

dollar a contract. it's a little more than 1% of the value of tlt right here. you in theory tlt can fall sharply if rates really rose. we did see it fall from the absolute lows in long-term rates when ten-years were less than 1%. it felts more than 50%. we're not expecting that here, because, of course, rates are already at a much, much higher level. it does demonstrate when you see a 20 base-point move, you can see a 2% move or more. it doesn't take a huge move to get tlt moving by a good amount. >> mike khouw, open interest.pro, thank you. >> thank you. the amount of activity in the etfs that track it, that's crazy, and what it could tell

you about future policy. tyler? ahead on "power lunch," we will trade of trump red way, as with a quick power check on the positive side of the s&p, discover financial services is climbing with the other financials, and it's merger with capital one is likely to be approved. >> and super micro is down 22% after a financial upgrade after a financial upgrade heightened investor concerns.tol multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. we will be right back. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth.

we're looking at the potential losers and winners under trump's second term as president. first, gold is hitting a three-week low today. boris shallchlossberg is here. boris, what do you think of gold? >> gold semi corrected today.

but i think longer term and especially against a trump presidency, i think some of the things that people forget, trump is a modern-day merton tilist. mercantilist. more importantly trump really loves low yields, and expansionary fiscal policy. if both of those policy measures will be favorable for gold as well. but any pull backs will be opportunity to buy the dips. >> it might also be a rare example of something going down today, whereas many other people are say stick with the winner. folks, exxon, this is considered a trump trade, you know, sort of, but if he's friendlier for

drilling and that lowers the oil price, you could see that as a headwind. what do you do here? >> exxon to me -- you're right, it's an expensive stock right now, but they have this massive find in guyana that would on track to produce millions of barrels. it's outside of the geopolitical hot zones, so to me looser regulatory requirements, a great source of a product, all of that bodes well for them. >> our final name today is in the consumer staples, general mills. the stock is down over 2%, staples widely seen as a loser in a second trump presidency. explain why that is and what your trade is on general mills,

particularly if robert f. kennedy, jr. has some important role. >> exactly. >> in food and drug supervision. >> exactly, you know, one name, bobby kennedy, because, you know trump has clearly said he's going to tap him for some sort of position in his cabinet, most likely something to be like a food or drug czar. now, the conventional trade is to say it will be the pharmaceuticals that will get hurt, but not that he wants to ban vaccines, he just doesn't want to mandate them, so i think the manufacturers would be quite already as far as production, on the other hand he's very much against seed oils, which are shown to be very, very dang just on a long-term basis, and packaged foods in american are really garbage foods, and general mills is at the forefront, has a target on them. so there is potentially here for

some regulatory oversight, on top of which the whole sector has very stagnant, not growing, underperformed the s&p significantly, all of that combines for investors to say bye-bye. >> so you're talking about seed oils, you're talking about sunflower, flaxseed, those kinds of things? >> palm oil. everything except olive oil. >> lard is in and oil is out. >> i cook with olive oil all the time, but that's the way to go. natural is best. >> boris, thanks very much. avoid the cereals. >> thanks, guys. up next, several are undergoing suits. those investigations started under trp,um continued under biden, will they continue under a new doj?

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm courtney regan. justice department officials are evaluating how to wind down the

two material criminal cases of donald trump. it will be up to special counsel jack smith on how to end the cases. both cases were mired in legal issues likely to be appealed to the supreme court. the move is in compliance with the agency's long-standing policy that a sitting president can't by prosecuted. the first openly trans lawmakers wins reelection. her win allows her to return to floor debate. and hurricane rafael is now a category 3 storm. it's about 85 miles south of havana, forecasting saying ted bring powerful winds and floods to the western side of cuba. >> thank you, courtney, and

welcome back. it is hitting an all-time high. a s.w.a.t. muted reaction, mostly higher. steve kovach has more on the issues. we see a lot of the investigations did start under the previous trump admini administration. >> i think that's getting lost here today. so, look, the four big government antitrust cases, like you said, all began under trump's first administration, and wasn't for the most part until the biden administration that those las vegas were ready. let me give you a recap. the doj versus alphabet on search, we know alphabet lost that case,, and doj is considering a breakup of google. still waiting for the judge to decide on that, though. there's a second alphabet case

against the digital advertising business, waiting for a ruling on that, and the spring we got the antitrust against apple, focusing on an alleged monopoly on the high end of the market, and policies around the app store. and ftc versus meta, this came out at the end of the first trump administration, gone through a bunch of appeals, but it's still alive and well. outside of those cases, the ftc is investing microsoft's investment in openai, and in january ordered the two companies to provide information related to the investigation. foment tc is also looking at alphabet and as for trump, of course he's been seen as a big critic, at the same time jd vance has praised the strict regulatory regime under joe biden. trump has also said he regally spoke with ceos of some of those

companies. and andy jassy recently spoke with trump as well. today, andy jassy, sundar pichai, mark zuckerberg and tim cook posted congratulations for donald trump. the question is who gets appointed to run the doj. so that will give us at least some indication. >> how influential might elon musk be in shaping the trump administration's approach to -- >> we know his as not a fan of mark zuckerberg. >> is that would you mita is down? >> some were speculating, but it could be part of it. at various times we've heard them praise people and admonish them at the same time. there's definitely a contentious relationship with zuckerberg and musk. there's been some tension with

tim cook and musk, numerous issues, everyone is involved. at the same time musk was out there on x thanking basically all the ceos who were congratulating trump today, and american emojis, so at least he's projecting happiness. >> it feels like the trump relationship with silicon valley has been a better than four years ago, eight years ago, fair? >> i think that's fair to say. look at what happened. after his inauguration. we had just, like, for example alphabet had a big town hall meeting, a lot of people were upset. we saw they outward projections of anti-trumpism, let's just call it. we saw that will es from apple. we saw ceo tim cook take a back step and work more behind the scenes, not being so forward

facing, and, by the way, that kind of worked out for him. he got some relief on the tariff front as those were getting implemented back in 2019. >> thank you, steve. >> you bet. and bitcoin rallying, and why does that crypto market see his return as such a boon. we'll talk about that, next. when we started feeding bogie the farmer's dog, he lost so much weight. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. in the morning, he flies up the stairs and hops up on my bed. in the past, he wouave been able to do any of those things. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times.

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tamra, izzy and emma...

they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. it's not just the stock market that is surging to record highs, bitcoin also hitting an all time high after donald trump was elected president. let's talk more about what's driving the crypto trade. michael busella is managing partner of neo classic. mckenzie, let's start with you. what does the crypto community

think donald trump will do for them in a second term? and he was no friend of crypto some years ago. >> that's true, and he had this complete about-face. in the last six months he's been making a lot of promises to the sector and the big one is that he plans to fire sec chair gary gensler. he can unseat him from that chairman seat. that's why you're seeing coin base and robinhood on a tear today. coin base is up 30%. it's ceo brian armstrong is $1.6 billion richer today and that's because they've been fighting the s.e.c. for over a year now, why they put $75 million in a pro crypto pac call fair shake. you have robinhood, they received a wells notice from the s.e.c. their stock is up 20%. they haven't been sued yet and perhaps with change of leadership at the top of the s.e.c. that lawsuit might not come to fruition. also trump said he would be a

big backer of the mining industry, that's why you're seeing stocks up more than 20%. 22% up for riot, clean spark. these are guys who have been meeting with trump behind closed doors in mar-a-lago and also in nashville talking to him about how he plans to invest a lot of building in building up a more robust energy and transmission infrastructure. >> because these guys suck up a lot of power. >> yeah. yeah. that buildout would be hugely instrumental to their business. >> what about this idea of creating a national crypto reserve? what would the purpose of that be and obviously it would be, i guess, good for crypto. >> yeah, in july donald trump talked about in idea of a national crypto stockpile which is not the same thing as a strategic reserve. what it would do is the $15 billion worth of bitcoin that the government has i massed from seizures as part of criminal sting operations it would keep that. anytime they have future operations it would hold on to that. suddenly you have all of this bitcoin taken out of the supply. as of now the u.s. marshal service will auction them off

periodically, when governments do that like germany this summer t auctioned off hundreds of billions of dollars of bitcoin, that was a boon to the price -- or not a boon, it did the opposite. >> mike, how are you placing your bets for the next couple of months, years now? >> i think the knee-jerk reaction higher up 8, 9% was priced in, priced in pretty well by the options market. no surprise there. i generally as a rule of thumb trust markets not politicians. i'm very happy the way that trump got behind the industry, but i think more than anything else perception matters more than most. policy perception, perception of support and then broadly speaking outside of -- outside of the future president trump we have a lot of support from congress now. i believe only four states in the united states of america, so 4 out of 50 states without a pro crypto representation in congress. so i think all of that comes together as a very near term bold case for crypto. either way i think the outcome of the election in either

direction, i personally was a large buyer of crypto leading into the election because it was a derisking agent. medium or longer term monetary policy means for. i think we are headed for larger deficits so from my perspective -- go on. >> i wanted you to finish the thought, michael, but i wanted to say on that note about larger deficits there are some who think this is a turning point and while not going away that they start getting smaller on the margin and if that's true depending on the dynamics could you see crypto lose a little bit of its steam here? >> i think they won't -- i think they won't grow at the pace they've been growing but i don't think them shrinking anytime soon. so i think, again, either way we're in a position where the next two cycles, so call it next eight years, liquidity cycles for crypto. if the opportunity remains the same and the risks decrease by half or more you should be investing in that asset. that's kind of the way that i

see this, this working out. >> mckenzie, where is congress on crypto and what's the -- we don't know the final composition of the house yet, we do sort of know what the senate is going to be, it's going to be a gop-controlled senate. under a new leader, by the way, i would suspect, i don't think mcconnell is running. what will congress be doing here? >> well, it's tremendous and mike was speak being this, a lot of the crypto pac money that got involved proved enormously effective, 330 pro crypto representatives, you know, on capitol hill and of the 58 races where you had this kind of pac money get involved, they've won every race so far. not every race has been called yet, but it's just proven the efficacy of this, you know, crypto voting bloc. they raised between companies and individual donors from the crypto sector they've raised more than $245 million poured that into a mix of house and senate races because that's where you're going to get the laws that will decide how much the industry can do. fit 21, a market infrastructure

bill, would be a game changer in terms of getting institutions comfortable with jumping into investing in the crypto scheme. >> mike, i was curious -- go ahead and you can mention doge quickly. >> that might have been the basket i purchased. the presidency it's much of bipartisan effort in the house and senate. 247 candidates in the house were elected that were pro crypto, we have, i believe it's 15 in the senate. so it's across the table. i think there's parties on both sides that want to push this initiative forward. i think high level, this blows the hinges off of crypto capital markets, more ipos, m&a, etf and derivative offerings. that creates a system where

liquidity builds upon itself. i think you will see listed products, we're seeing it into the miners, you're seeing it across the board. our firm invests quite a bit overseas in asia and a lot of those regulators take note from what's happening in the u.s. so if the perception is that the u.s. will be becoming more crypto friendly that have have a global effect. >> they're playing our song. thank you very much. thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the post election rally, the best way for stocks in some two years as president trump is elected once again. we will track the biggest movers into the close and there are many today, many things moving with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the major averages ripping higher all day long. almost 3% for the nas, 2.5% for the s&p and look at that, near 3.5% for the dow. yields, they're up, too, along with the dollar today and you just heard about