i think you will see listed products, we're seeing it into the miners, you're seeing it across the board. our firm invests quite a bit overseas in asia and a lot of those regulators take note from what's happening in the u.s. so if the perception is that the u.s. will be becoming more crypto friendly that have have a global effect. >> they're playing our song. thank you very much. thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the post election rally, the best way for stocks in some two years as president trump is elected once again. we will track the biggest movers into the close and there are many today, many things moving with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the major averages ripping higher all day long. almost 3% for the nas, 2.5% for the s&p and look at that, near 3.5% for the dow. yields, they're up, too, along with the dollar today and you just heard about bitcoin getting

above 75,000. we're watching that closely. it is pushing 76,000 at this very moment. and how about tesla, up a stunning 15% at its highs today. it's just about right there as well. we'll ask blackrock's rick reader about all of this in just a little bit. former fed governor richard clareda will join us. the road ahead for the markets as a so-called red sweep seems likely this hour, the only real question the margin. let's welcome in our panel, dan greenhouse, stephanie link and chris harvey, they are all with me here at post 9. steph, i will give it to you first. i mean, there are like ten different things that are surging today, asset classes, individual o stocks, it's remarkable. >> some of the moves i made, with he will talk about that a little bit later. i think the message is that this administration is going to bring

faster growth, maybe a little bit more inflation. that's what bond yields are telling you. the ten year has rallied, 75 basis points since september 1th when the fed cut, they're already telling you, was already forecasting better growth, maybe a smidge more inflation. i think what's going to be really interesting, scott, is we're going to get less government spending, but we're probably going to get a business investment cycle now. all the companies that i've talked to, all the ceos they were waiting for this, waiting for some sort of clarity. thank goodness we actually got an answer, by the way, you know i was worried about that. >> we want ad clean election. >> we wanted it clean. it was clean. tariffs are still a question. is it just china? is it around the world? looks like tariffs probably goes to maybe like 30% for china, maybe it's 1 to 5% for the rest of the world, i think that's manageable. i don't know if that's really that inflationary. the people -- the fact that people are nervous about that, we have to watch it, but i think overall obviously very good news today. on top of what we talked about yesterday on halftime, we are

already in a growth cycle in the economy growing 2.5%, the consumer is doing okay, manufacturing is doing okay. i think the momentum can continue and earnings are going higher. >> in other words, the backdrop was good no matter what happened last night, it just appears obviously more favorable for many areas of the market, clearly given the reaction today. chris harvey, the good news is you raised your s&p target to 5830, the bad news is we're at 5923, my man. i mean, you are a little low now aren't you still even though you raised it? what's going on here? >> scott, we are having a hard time. we have a multiple of almost 22 times on a 270 number. our focus is down to capitalization that's where the value is, it's mid cap and small caps. i think small cap is more of a trade, mid cap park your bets. up cap it's hard to justify the numbers. that doesn't mean stocks are

going to come back in, it's just i can't get there based on valuations and other things. i find the value, find the opportunity down to capitalization, better valuations, haven't participated and you do have a pretty strong -- as stephanie was are saying you have a pretty strong economy, we're going to have m&a and things will get exciting from here. >> you say we have underappreciated economic growth, solid earnings, tight credit spreads and positive momentum. >> yeah. >> we being you guys? you? >> i think the market. >> the market. how have we underestimated that? we're record highs, even before today we were only 1.5% from highs before we got the trump bump. >> which is why we're moving down the capitalization. the small caps and mid caps they really haven't performed. if we look at '25 people still think that gdp is going to be below 2%. that's not a great environment for small caps but in actuality the economy is much stronger than that. that's one of the reasons why small caps are moving. yes, you have a trump trade, certainty, the fed moving, tight

credit spreads, but ultimately the economy is stronger than people really appreciate. >> okay. so the market cap -- thes&p 500 because the big names, the big market caps that are making the biggest difference within the index itself are just not going to do as well -- it's not like you're making a bearish call on the market, it's just you're more nuanced because you think there's greater upside in things like the russell, which, by the way, did i mention that at the top, is up like 6%? i forgot. but that's the kind of day it is. >> there's a lot, but i also would be remiss if i didn't mention what was down. >> staples and utilities? >> well, but also some of the names that would be associated had vice president harris won, sun run, club power, sunova and the retailers that do a lot of importing like five below and the dollar stores. >> tariffs, right. >> tariff plays is the other side of this. there's a lot to celebrate, a lot is doing well today, the

defense names, home builders are having a little trouble. i feel the need to balance not everything is up. >> what does this now mean for where we will go from here? this is not a -- i mean, you tell me. a one-day phenomenon. i'm not suggesting that all these asset classes are going to go up by the same degree from here in perpetuity, but, i mean, things feel like they've been reset here with not only the win, but the magnitude of it, the idea of a sweep, albeit we still don't know what the house margin is going to be and that's critically important as well. is it a two-seat margin? a seven-seat margin? big time money managers are watching that margin because it matters. >> as you should. i mean, you can only lose one -- obviously with a tuesday margin you can only lose one or two lawmakers if yout to pass things. there's things to be done, particularly the extension of

the tcga at the mid ld or end of the year. >> that's the tax cuts. >> the tax cuts and jobs act. >> we leave acronyms out, we go real stuff. >> listen, i don't know that there's been a reset, per se, but i think as i think out loud here, the points that chris articulated, the economy is doing well, stocks are at all time highs, credit spreads are tight and you're now being greeted with maybe not as dramatic a fed loosening program as perhaps you previously thought, but still rates are on their way down, we're going to get a 25 basis point cut this week. >> are they on their way down? are they really on their way down? what if this resets where rates are actually going to go? >> they are not -- we've been talking about this all year all of us on this program, they are not going down as much as the market had priced at one point and probably not as much as we priced as recently as a week ago but rates are still going down. they may not get to the mid 3s but i think we will get to the

mid 4s andrea assess. if you do put 60% tariffs on chinese goods and 10% tariffs on everyone else combined you are talking about a boost to gdp if i was a traditional academic economist doing this you would say somewhere around a 1% boost to an otherwise baseline view of inflation, a 1 percentage point increase is not nothing, i don't know that it's going to be enough if someone were to argue inflation was to go up by 1% he would find himself derailed but i think the fed will wait and see what gets passed, what gets instituted and when. >> it's all fine and good today, the market obviously loves the news that it got, but at what point are yields rising, pack backing up even further a problem? >> it's something to watch and kwr but i think it will stay around these levels if not go down. you forget about with inflation productivity. if productivity improves, inflation will improve or maybe it doesn't go up as much.

we have to watch friday. china -- china is going to issue their fiscal policy probably more stimulus and we have to see how much stimulus that is and does it offset some of the tariffs. that's something that i'm watching as well because if they actually can get their act together and grow, that will add to -- also to inflation. so, you know, look, we're watching rates, i'm more interested in earnings, i'm thinking about 9% growth this year. i think you could go low double digits next year, especially if you do get some sort of reprieve on taxes or even if you don't, you're having the better growth cycle and that, i think, is much more important. you know i have said this for a long time, i would much rather have higher growth and a little higher inflation because that helps earnings, that gives companies pricing power and so i think the valuations, yes, they're rich, chris, but, guess what, there are so many sectors out there and so many stocks in large cap land that are not trading at 22 times forward estimates. this is much more of a stock

picker market as well as sectors, getting the right sectors, you know, in your portfolio. >> you want to talk about yields as we are on the cusp of this fed meeting? no one really cares but at some point -- i mean, we had cared, now they are up more, we don't care. when do we care? >> i think we care at 475. we definitely pair at 5%. but 4.5% seems like the high end of the range, i think the range is 3.5 to 4.5. if you look at inflation expectations, 2.5, reels at another 2, you are at 4.5, that's pretty healthy. inflation, i'm not sure -- everyone is talking about inflation, trump is going to be infla inflationary. his first three years cpi ex food and energy was 1.7 to 2.4, that's not high inflation by any stretch of the imagination. furthermore if it's drill, baby, drill and we bring down oil prices that's not inflationary, either. the last thing i would point out

and maybe i'm seeing things during earnings season, i'm not sure, but it looks that the market investors are buying for unit by growth and not price. they prefer -- they want companies to grow unit volumes, they want growth and they are not as focused on price. if that's true ceos are going to take notice of that and that's really interesting when we talk about inflation. >> are we underestimating also the ability if we spark a new -- i don't necessarily want to say a new economic cycle, but maybe we prolong it, we prolong it more so than people have thought, can we grow our way out of the issues with the deficit? that's the larry fink -- that's the larry fink op-ed in the journal, i think it was yesterday. this week is like a run-on week at this point. i think that's the point he's making. through infrastructure spending and these new growth opportunities because of ai, you increase your gdp growth and thus you can grow your way out of these deficit issues.

you don't buy it? >> larry fink is smarter and richer than me. >> by a lot. at least the latter. >> i will talk to him about the former part. yeah, i will take the dramatic under on our ability to grow out of the deficit. that's not -- that's not -- i'm sorry i'm laughing. i don't think that's going to happen at all. but about the new economic cycle, listen, you're going to get some deregulation, you're going to get some m&a, although i would cautious -- caution people not to get into politics here too much, but the j.d. vance's of the world and in that group, we will lump in marco rubio and josh holly, just google -- it doesn't matter. there is an alternative way of thinking about things -- a way in which they view the world that's not in the traditional republican orthodoxy. j.d. vance has had positive things at different points to say about lena khan -- >> he is connected in the tech world. >> sure.

>> right? they're dying to do deals. i talked to brad gershner last night, let's remind our viewers about what he told me about all of this pent up demand, especially in tech out in the valley. >> here is the problem, all large companies in silicon valley, all large tech companies, are basically -- have taken their entire m&a team and put them on the shelf. instead what they're doing is buying back stock, issuing dividends and buying more gpus. i think we will be better served when we get back to a proper functioning mergers and acquisition in silicon valley that's always been part of the heartbeat this have place and i think under republican administration you're going to get that. >> i agree with everything he just said. the banks are not up because there's going to be a surge of checking deposits being opened. clearly m&a -- >> did you see goldman today? morgan stanley? >> have you seen the regionals? >> have you seen the private equity firms? >> we're looking at the same

screens. >> lena khan is gone, jonathan kanter is gone at doj. my point is just, listen, you're going to get m&a -- let's go back to the pain point. you're going to get m&a, dividends, buy backs, a friendlier environment, banks are an essential part of that discussion. >> do you agree banks, lean into the banks now? >> definitely lean into the banks. we were talk being a reset. you have had 15 years of upward pressure, regulatory pressure. you peaked about a year ago, basil 3 watered down, the chevron decision and now you're going to be a very, very friendly administration. this is different. furthermore, you're right, lena khan is probably gone, she's been holding up a lot of m&a, what's going to happen to the banks is you're going to get -- you already have gotten multiple expansion and now the capital markets business, m&a, ipos, trading, it is all going to speed up. we may be looking at a super cycle in the m&a market.

>> wow. steph, you own some of these stocks. >> i hope you're right. >> you don't old goldman, i don't even think you own the private equity players. >> i own morgan stanley, bank of america, wells fargo, truist, american express. >> are you as bullish as chris harvey. >> absolutely. >> super cycle? >> i added to that bank today because i think that the valuations are still very attractive and, yeah, i mean, chris mentioned it's capital markets, it's fees, it's investment banking fees that blew away expectations. >> wells, is that the one you added to? >> wells i added to today, yes. they're gaining market share and it's all the things that chris talked about, capital markets, investment banking, wealth management, net new asset growth which has helped buy higher asset prices. then you have the asset cap that eventually is going to get lifted and they are so behind in asset growth, they're down 1% in asset growth since 2017. the banks by the five other

large banks are up 42% in asset growth. can you imagine the catch up that they're going to play? the stock has had a heck of a run but it is still trading at 1.4 times book. i think it's very attractive. >> you sat on 12% cash, right? >> in one of the portfolios. >> that's a sizable amount of cash. >> it is a sizable amount of cash. >> what do you do? where do you deploy it? let's move from beyond the ideas you already suggested. >> so we're looking at a lot of industrial names. we like that space a lot. we think that cyclicality -- again, we do like the banks, do like the communications space but don't think it performs as well. we want to add a little bit more economic sensitivity so that puts you in the industrial space, that puts you in the banks and financials and then we're going to start to look at things -- now that rates have gone up a lot of the home -- home-related stocks are tanking today and that might be a space that you want to own longer term. >> so two things, one on each of

their points. first with respect to the financials, i happened to see today betsy grasick a long-standing bank analyst at morgan stanley commented that this past earning season -- i may be paraphrasparaphrasing, i apologize -- was the best of the 22 years, the best quarter she has been in the 22 years she's been a bank analyst. clearly something positive is going on in the financials. the point about the industrials, with president trump winning and with the presumed sweep of the house as well, there's talk maybe the inflation reduction act some of the green subsidies will be scaled back. certainly some of the green subsidies will be scaled back -- yes, the inflation reduction act, much like defense spending where they put each nut and bolt in 37 different states, there's spending deployed throughout the entire country in red districts and red states that's probably not going to be derailed. it's pretty popular, creating jobs, creating -- in quotes --

spending money in districts and it's going to have some support mere. in the industrial space some of the names have done exceedingly well. we've talked about them over the last 6, 12 months. i don't think there's talk that the inflation reduction will be repealed. >> what about -- steph, it wasn't that long ago, was it a month, i don't know at this point, six weeks, where china did the big stimulus, you know, and david tepper came on squawk and, look, he's super tactical, he could have changed his view based on market moves within an hour, a week or month, who knows, but that was viewed to be a new investing environment. has that changed now because of -- i mean, the tariffs are still in place, but soon to be president trump again is talking about not only -- he's doubling down on them, does that change that trade? >> i don't think so but that's why friday is important, we will get more stimulus or more details about the stimulus. the stim lis that china put in place six weeks ago was just as

large as the stimulus they put in place during covid. it was massive across the spectrum of money father and fiscal policies. we will get more details this week and whether it's more stimulus or not it's still coming. it will help to offset higher tariffs but i think you're going to get more. >> you like india better than china no matter what anyway, right? >> i think india is definitely a win under trump for sure. i think china is short term, medium term kind of a trade, i think india is longer term given the population size of 1.45 billion people in their country, 40% of them are under the age of 25. so think about productivity and innovation and growth and you have prime minister modi who is very fiscally savvy, they're going to spend $1.7 trillion on infrastructure between now and 2030 and they're going to be the third largest country between now and 2030. so i want to be part of that long term, could the.

>> i want to quickly take the other side of the china argument. china -- we all know growth has been slowing, property issues, blah, blah, blah, we all know this. the one leg of the stool that's really been holding up that country has been external demand, particularly the united states. i think that there's more to discuss on this topic, but i think the risk to china is severe that these tariffs are onerous, are deleterious and perhaps do more damage than we're giving credit for. >> it depends on what you think the tariffs are going to be and we don't know. if it goes to 29% and they increase stimulus and that sort of thing and then they will be able to offset some of it. by the way, like we're growing at 2.5, 3%, that ain't so bad, right? india is not a mess, japan is not a mess. i think that that can help the overall global demand which was one of the reasons why i'm adding to an energy position today. >> okay. we should do that, i forgot to do that. >> go to chris, it's okay, i

don't mean to steal the thunder. >> you sold the rest of your apple. >> i did. >> and you added to what energy position? >> slb, it's down 20%, but they are the number one oil field service company in the world. technology is amazing, they get no credit whatsoever, they just did a deal with nvidia, didn't even get mentioned. if you believe in drill, baby, drill under trump you're going to need more services and these guys are the number one player. >> we will leave it there. >> sorry. >> it's okay. >> say something quick. >> china? india? u.s. best? >> u.s. is best. >> there we go. i have to have some last word, i would have felt bad. chris, stephanie and dan. let's send it to seema mody for a check on how the semis are faring. >> chips overall are trading higher but taiwan semi are falling. nvidia and every hyper scaler rely on taiwan semi for its

cutting edge chips. tariffs could also weigh on the semiconductor players that had the highest exposure to china in the smh etf, super micro shares remain under pressure following weak second quarter guidance. the ceo says it's working urgently to find a new auditor. we're looking at the stock down 19%. >> let's send it now to kate rooney for a closer look at robin hoothd and interactive brokers today. >> all of this market activity you guys have been talking about is a boost for those brokerage firms, schwab higher, robinhood and interactive up double digits today, both firms offered election prediction contracts in overnight trading which is helping here. robinhood put out stats about this earlier, they saw the biggest equities overnight trading session since launching 24 hour markets, saw about 400 million contracts, 11 times more

than usual. a lot of momentum and trump trades, coin base, djt, nvidia, tesla and the qs were in the top ten. bitcoin and doge coin, there is an s.e.c. factor for robinhood. they had a tense relationship with that regulator under gary gensler. the agency, though, issued a wells notice to robinhood and gensler's potential removal seen as a win for robinhood in any less hostile stance toward crypto would be a good thing for robinhood and crypto. thomas teterffy approximate will be on "closing bell." >> more on today's post election rally and the move in yields, blackrock's rick rieder will join us. you're watching "closing bell"

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bond yields hitting their highest level since the summer following donald trump's election win and just ahead of tomorrow's fed decision. where they might head from here let's bring in rick rieder. great to have you on such a huge day like this, rick. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me, scott. a big day, big night. it was a long night. >> what's most on your mind today as you see all of these different asset classes rallying so heavily? >> so it's pretty incredible. first of all, the results were incredible, obviously great job through the evening, but the equity market, if you think about the growth dynamics that are going to -- that are going to persist, you know, a company that's been already operating at a good level, the growth data

that's going to continue to be good, you know, the propelling of the equity market is pretty incredible. beneath the surface the drop in volatility that you're seeing is pretty -- i would say like you can own equities when volatility drops, you can own some convexity so that's been super exciting today. obviously the dollar and then the shift to the yield curve has been pretty extraordinary. we've talked on this show before the front end of the curve, while yields are backed up it's still carrying really well so that shift in the yield curve has been, i think rightly so, moving -- steepening out quite nicely. >> did we just pour gasoline on the bull market and throw a match on it? what has actually happened here within the last, i don't know, 12 hours? >> yeah, so i think the last time i was on the show i said i don't really like multiples but it feels like we're long and we like equities but it feels like speeding down the highway to try

to get where you're going doesn't feel great but it's probably going to keep going. there are two things happening, one the technicals in the equity market are extraordinary, the amount of cash that's out there, you don't have sellers and ipo market and the buy backs are profound. you have an amazing technical. to your point what was challenging is the multiples are aggressive and you have to count on to get to the forwards on these multiples you have to count on significant earnings growth. you've just got a kicker of maybe nominal gdp stays considerably higher, by the way, i agree with the commentary earlier, you have to keep nominal gdp up that's how you outrun the debt. u.s. companies are operating leverage machines on nominal gdp, you just got a nice tailwind from that. >> good that you agree publicly on television with your boss. he is the one who wrote the piece. >> yeah, so, yes, i do. it's just straight math, the

average cost of debt in the united states is just under 3.5%. if we keep nominal gdp above 4, 4 to 5, you can actually -- and you think about, gosh, there are things we have to do around spending, other ways to actually create spend that's got some velocity so it if it's spent on infrastructure, et cetera. if you create that paradigm it's the only way to outrun the debt problem in this country. we have to end up reducing the debt, the spend, we have to get the interest costs down and ultimately if you grow fast enough it's just straight math that you can actually -- it's the only way, quite frankly the only way to do it that's not a pernicious impact on the economy, this idea we will cut spend, send the economy in a tailspin you don't get there. >> what do i do with the prospect of higher growth as we spin it towards the fed decision tomorrow and what policy is going to look like in '25, all

of that obviously has the possibility of leading to protracted inflation, if not a pickup. so how should i think about, you know, the idea that, do you know what, maybe they're not going to cut even nearly as much as we thought because they're not going to be able to? >> so first of all i think inflation, the descent of inflation has already happened. we didn't think inflation was coming down any further from here no matter what. we think inflation is going to run in the mid two for next year. so if you are the federal reserve today, to me it's a no-brainer in terms of, gosh, you have to get the funds rate down to 4 and if you get the funds rate, do you do a 25 in november? you probably do a 25 in december. once you get the funds rate to 2, inflation at 2.5. there's a lot of policy evolution, a lot of things

you're going to learn. make a determination from there. i don't think it's that much of a challenge to get that rate down to a 4 level which is restrictive in many ways. then it becomes the question of do you execute the further cuts into next year and that becomes questionable. it's part of why i think the front end of the yield curve which is pricing that today it's like, wow, there is not a lot of down side in it. if you go further out the yield curve you have to count on inflation staying down, maybe the fed cutting more, it becomes a tougher trade. i think owning 30 year fresh rears is a bet on term premium, on what you're going to do on the debt and deficit but you don't need to do it with the yield curve as flat as it is. >> is there something that's up a lot today that doesn't make you a little uncomfortable? let's say you think, okay, it's up a lot and i think it can go up a lot more. i'm thinking of things like the dollar, for example. >> so, yeah, i think the dollar particularly against europe i think the dollar can keep

involving. you think about what the central bank has to do in europe or the ecb has to do, do you have to get rate down a bit further? we don't know what's going to happen with regard to tariff and what's going to happen to growth there. yeah, i do think that that's got more room to run. by the way, i think the one that's incredible today is the high yield market is up on the day. you think about what's happened to interest rates. i still believe in this thesis, income, income, income in yielding assets that is impressive. scott, listen, i think every time i go through the data on what we're going to spend on capex around technology, ai, data center, energy, i mean, that is just a persistent demand that i think is -- it's been a generation you've seen anything of that sort of ilk. i'm not terribly surprised that that continues to have -- in different forms, whether it's cloud or whether it's other parts of it, i'm not terribly surprised about that. and financials -- >> lastly -- >> i'm sorry. >> no, please.

>> i was listening to your discussion about the financials. i like the financials and you've got a series of tailwinds in terms of what the shape of the curve is doing, m&a. i still think consumer financials, credit card, et cetera, is -- if you believe this idea we're going to have a pernicious downturn and the consumer was going to get hurt significantly, those businesses, credit card businesses, et cetera, you know, generate a lot of earnings. that roe i still think is priced reasonably well here. >> lastly and briefly is there something that you didn't like yesterday that you like today or something that you just all together stay away from? >> so, listen, i mean, i think emerging markets become interesting when they get cheap enough, you know, do we need to take a lot of risk today? not really. if you're getting plenty of yield in other parts of the market do i need to take a lot of risk in emerging markets? that part of the market i think there's probably another point in time for investing in it.

there are parts i think that are interesting. equities i do think that conversation earlier, i think india is interesting from an equity point of view. anyway, that part of the market, listen, there's so many ways if you're fixed income to create yield i still think big companies that have data and access to data in the equity market will r. going to continue to perform. >> we will leave it there. rick, thanks for being here. that's rick rieder. up next rich clarida is back with us, he will give us his of thoughts on the decision tomorrow. we're looking out, too. a look at the major averages. we are back on the bell. look at that, dow is up better tt t 1500 points. beerhan 3.5%.

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now that the election is over tomorrow's fed decision is front and center. joining me now richard clarida, a former federal reserve vice-chairman. welcome back. >> good to see. >> you what's going to happen tomorrow? >> well, i think with a high degree of confidence i can say they're going to cut rates by 25 basis points. they may not do all that much more tomorrow. i don't think there will be very significant changes to the statement and of course there are no dots so i think all eyes, as usual, on the chair's press conference, but do expect 25

basis points tomorrow. >> how do you think a trump presidency is going to impact policy next year? >> i think -- i'm glad you phrased the question that way because i don't think it's going to impact policy tomorrow or december. i think jay powell and the committee have made clear that rate decisions in 2024 depend on 2024 macro data. but obviously policy does need to be data dependent because inflation is still running above the 2% target and the contours of fiscal policy and other decisions, including our regulation, will have an influence on the outlook. and so i think as the year evolves the fed and markets will get a better sense of how that's all going to work out, but i think it's too soon to tell with any precision what it could mean depending on the details of policy. >> but what you see -- let's just say what is on paper is not necessarily what's in practice.

so what's been talked about or at least speculated on i think will make our baseline for the conversation. >> yeah. >> if we're able to reflate the economy in a way that he's suggesting by certain policy maneuvers that he'd like to do, does that increase the likelihood that the fed won't be able to cut as many times as maybe we thought, even as we've dialed back our expectations as it is. >> it could be, scott n september the committee more or less through the sep projections established a working baseline of 50 bips this year, 25 tomorrow, perhaps another in december and potentially four more cuts next year. i think those will depend on the flow of data, in particular if inflation were to stay stuck and not be drifting down towards target, we could get fewer rate cuts next year. i think -- so i think that will be a function of the outlook. if inflation continues to

decline, i think the fed will certainly continue to adjust policy lower. so i think in that sense the traction that policy has on the economy is really going to be influencing the way the fed thinks about rates next year. >> how are you thinking about the issue of the deficit? how might they be thinking about it as, you know, some very smart people are opining on it, including larry fink of blackrock who says you can get out of this mess, you've just got to keep nominal gdp growth high enough to do so. >> well, yes, but i think what you have to recognize is unless you get even more surprises on productivity growth, higher nominal gdp growth could mean higher inflation and i don't think the powell fed is going to sign up for that. so it depends on how you get the nominal gdp growth. you know, i think we have to acknowledge, scott, you and i, i've done your show several times, the u.s. economy has been remarkably resilient. we've had better than expected

growth in 2023, 2024 and so there is a possibility of getting, you know, even stronger growth and that nominal gdp through that channel. but to the extent that higher nominal gdp would be driven by higher inflation i don't think the powell fed would sign up for that. >> we will leave it there, to be continued. i appreciate your time as always, richards. be well. >> thank you. >> that's rich clarida. up next solar stops are dropping, tesla stocks are popping. we will drill down when we come back.

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we're less than 15 from the bell. to pippa stevens for a look at the biggest names in the solar

space. >> carnage for solar stocks, the worst day in 4.5 years amid fears that president-elect trump will try to repeal the act. sunova shedding half the value. analysts say a total repeal of the ira sun likely but jpmorgan categorizing the changes as a scalpel instead of a sledgehammer but stocks very much trade on sentiment and this creates a headline risk. scott? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. shares of tesla another big mover. phil lebeau joining us with more. i think we can figure out the reasons why here, phil. >> well, when you are as close as elon musk has become to the president-elect, your shares of the stock of your company definitely are going to benefit. shares of tesla they're up today, 52-week tie, tickling $300 a share. three things stand out about the

relation shep between elon musk and president-elect trump. first of all, is there a potential roll back in ev incentives, that would definitely hurt some of the smaller players in ev, but tesla has the size and scale to withstand that. essentially king of the hill gets a little more share. nhtsa oversight will be limited, that's the expectation, it was limited in the first trump ald strags and that means robo taxi development should accelerate. a lot of people are saying what we thought before, maybe we move that up six months, a year, as they try to roll out the next robo taxi. as you take a look at shares of tesla versus the s&p 500 we're going back to the beginning of the biden administration. check that out, scott. difference in performance that may change under the next administration. >> i noticed earlier, too, uber was down earlier because the robo taxi idea presumably, it's positive now but certainly an underperformer relative to many of the other big names. we will watch all of that. thank you as always. still ahead, we're going to

run you through the key earnings to watch in overtime, including lyft and qualcomm. tomorrow don't miss my interview with jeffrey gundlach. we're back after this.

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lyft. mike, i will turn to you first. what's most impressive to you today? >> first of all, pretty vociferous response. the sustained gains over the course of the day. >> that's the right word, too. >> days like this when you do have just this powerful upside move, they're not one-offs, at minimum you can say that, yeah, sure, at some point it's going to be a fade, overheated, right now even the s&p 500 it's kind of pushing above its trend path, running a little hot, it should cool off. the second piece is it's not indiscriminate across the board. it might be one of the weaker market breadth days for being up 2.5% on the s&p that we have ever seen. it's not even two to one up to down and you have 20% of the s&p is down at least 1% today. the market is figuring out who is relatively better and worse position, most is rate sensitive stuff down, utilities, housing related, things like that.

that's why we sit right now. all the stuff that's moving very, very aggressively today, whether it's yields, whether it's the dollar, they're still below where we hit as recently as the spring. so it's not as if we're kind of carving out new ground and it's adding this brand-new stressor to the equity markets. so all along it's been the case if yields are going up for better growth reasons or expectations that's fine. obviously inflation expectations also ticking higher in the market base measures. you have to keep an eye on all of that. it's tough to fight this time of year when the market had sort of settled back over the prior few weeks and actually a lot of stocks were sort of based and ready to go. >> dow is good for 1,500 points. your point on retailers, obviously the prospect of tariffs is going to be most acute there, the national retail federation president was talking about yesterday on this network. in other words, without tesla today and amazon today, discretionary space might be

negative if not barely positive. >> it's actually still going to be up, but, yes, you're right because housing related is all in there, too. >> that's true. >> home builders are all in there. it's definitely picking its spots and that's not necessarily a negative thing. but, you know, it's funny because people are saying, well, look, the better market has figured out the result, we have a clean result, right, and next day and all that is to the good. the stock market clearly had not fully repriced for the implications of a clear trump win until today. >> all right. deirdre bosa, talk to us about lyft. i mentioned to phil what uber was doing today, maybe in relation to tesla and the autonomous driving, but what do you see? >> well, lyft shares went the opposite way, they're higher ahead of that print on a bunch of autonomous vehicle deals, robo taxi complex hangs over ride sharing. investors swung between seeing robo taxis as an existential threat versus a boon that could

establish ride sharing as platforms for the new age of driverless cars. that is the longer term. nearer term investors want to see healthy bookings, progress on profitability and color on the doordash partnership that could help them better compete with their larger rival. all of that said, scott, lyft is down 4% year to date versus uber is up 20% from that time. >> seema mody is watching qualcomm and arm. >> qualcomm will provide a gauge or smartphone sales, analysts are expecting the company to generate over $6 billion in quarterly sales, 12% year over year. the state of the relationship with apple growing concerns that overtime apple could potentially pull away from qualcomm to design its 5g chips. jpmorgan cut its price target to 2 10 maintaining an overweight rating. china will be topical following trump's victory as will any color on a potential takeover of

intel. we're seeing shares up over 4% ahead of its report. for arm holdings which is set to report earnings tonight, the licensor of design to semiconductors, investors are expected 26 cents adjusted, it's locked in a heated dispute with qualcomm over a licensing fee investors will want to know if this dispute could lead to a larger legal battle and the potential cost. we are looking at shares up about 30% in the past three months. >> seema, appreciate that. thank you very much. that's seema mody. with the fed decision tomorrow and president trump's reelection if we need to further adjust our calculus for both growth and then rate cuts in the year ahead as i asked rich clarida. >> i think we're definitely in the process of readjusting where we think the destination of short term rates is. it's acting as more of an

accelerant to some of the trends we were already watching, economy surprising so the upside, pretty good productivity growth recently and everyone is expecting that to continue. and, you know, the stickiness on the inflation front, we've caused in terms of the disinflationary process. all of that stuff was happening and now maybe that's more of the same of what we're going to get confirmation of something like that. we've been running nominal growth at strong levels for a while, five percentage, the deficit as a percentage of gdp has been going down for a couple of years. it's not like we just discovered this possibility that we could grow faster than the deficit goes up. it's been happening since the peak deficits in the pandemic years. yes, the idea being you can kind of really make up some ground on that front. and we will see. i mean, look, so much is yet to be known. are we really talking about end spending cuts from the government? are they not going to hinder the economy? are we talking about the mass deportation as soon as all of

this stuff that is sort of the maybe the more complicated implications of what happened as opposed to the right up front, let's have the candy first and we're going to get tax clarity and we're going to have perhaps a little bit more of a deregulatory environment. >> if nothing else the larry fink op-ed may just reset the narrative in a different way about the possibilities of dealing with the deficit in the next couple of years in which it was viewed largely as well -- i don't know how you're going to deal with this, it's only going to become a problem. >> it was always people insisting that 4% or 4.5% on the ten year was telling you the market was avid of further deficits as opposed to, you know, that's pretty much right for where the economy is growing, clearly it's not holding the economy back very much. clearly it's not a really unusually high rate based on history. so, yes, i do think it changes the conversation, but it also really in a way kind of validates the way that the economy and the markets have been dealing with rates and the

deficit levels to this point. >> we will leave it there. we are obviously going to go out with monster gain today in so many different aspects we're watching. we will highlight stocks, dow is up better than 1500 points right now. i will see you tomorrow. morgan brennan. >> that's the end of regulation, foster scientific ringing the closing bell, cvb financial corps doing the honors at the nasdaq. animal spirits reawakening, record closes for the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq, also the dow transports we have a record high for bitcoin, investors jockeying for position after donald trump's presidential victory. that is the score card on wall street. but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime," i'm morgan brennan. we are awaiting breaking news this hour as vice president kamala harris is expected to speak any moment at howard university. we will bring you those remarks when they start. an