good day to have someone from poly market on, sorkin. you're a stud. if you believe the poly market. >> that's the case. >> i'm not ever really to dismiss poly market out of hand how good it was versus the pols this time around. all across the board. >> it will be great -- this is the first interview. >> is it, really? >> first on tv. >> fantastic. moderna is set to report this hour. we will bring you the numbers and first on cnbc interview with the company's ceo stephane. it is thursday, november 7th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now.

>> what is he worried about? good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and u.s. equity futures on this thursday morning are indicated higher. triple digit gain for the dow right now up 115. s&p futures are up by 12. the nasdaq up by close to 45. the dow soared by more than 1,500 points yesterday. that was a gain of 3.5%. the s&p up 2.5%. by the way, the biggest gain we've ever seen on a post-election day. nasdaq was up nearly 3%. if you check out treasury yeeltds, the yields were higher. the same level this morning. the ten-year 4.43. the two-year at 4.25. bitcoin yesterday was up 10%. this morning, back down by 1.25%. week to date, you could see it up 8.5%.

just above $75,000 for bitcoin. >> we talked about gold. gold was weird. >> i wasn't watching. >> down 80 bucks. weird. god forbid i say the wrong number with the gold nuts out there. we know who we're talking about. meantime, let's talk about the election. bring you an update on where things stand on some of the races that were just recently called. we're going to start with the house where the balance of power has not yet officially been decided. republicans have won 209 seats to 187 for the democrats. 218 seats are needed for control. republicans retook control of the senate and currently hold 52-44 lead there with key seats in pennsylvania, nevada and arizona not yet called. in michigan, democrat lisa slotkin defeated mike rogers for the open seat. >> so close. >> despite a trump victory there over harris in the key

battleground state. a lot of folks. >> 16,000 votes. >> just how tight these races have been. as we know, trump won in the battleground states of north carolina, georgia, pennsylvania and wisconsin. arizona and nevada have not yet been called. as we said earlier, we are going to be speaking with the founder of poly market with his first television interview. bo boy, have the betting markets, over politics, not only become a big thing and big business, thus far, more accurate. >> how many tums have we said the polls have been wrong? >> yeah. depends on the poll. a couple years, somebody gets a poll de jour. it is early. i ride to add up the number of house seats that are already settled. there's a lot that aren't. there's a reason we don't know. >> several of them are in

california. where it takes longer because of local balloting rules. >> my son is pretty excited about pennsylvania for our friend mccormick. >> he was ahead. >> yeah. it slowly was eroding, but apparently the countiies that ae left is precipiimarily republic. still doesn't mean it's a done deal. casey is in the senate. some would think when he left would be retirement. it's an ousting. it's weird for someone to do that especially a hedge fund guy. >> not the first time. >> he lost in the primary. >> yeah. >> you know, you say hedge fund guy. yes, bridgewater for a period of time. >> army. >> financial crisis. people forget david mccormick was a deputy with paulson and

played a key role in keeping the international piece of it together. >> i manage people by how much money they have. if you were at bridgewater, you were doing pretty well. >> quite the career. >> yeah. >> you weren't trying to manage -- >> everything else. he would have been a much better candidate than the other guy a few years ago. >> dr. oz. >> the old trump. when he was a loser. all right. your aura ring, andrew, the smart device maker aura has a new report out on the effects on the tension of election day. the smart ring measures heart rate and heart rate vulnerability. between 11:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m. on election day, minutes of stress were up 2.3% and res restorative time down 19%. at night, as states began to be

called, the company tracked heart rate of 3.7% versus comparable nights. they do this for basketball. they are watching for the big football games. election night, obviously, measuring the collective anxiety through the election night. some of the worst sleep numbers ever. >> actually, yesterday for me, and tuesday, were -- this is amazing -- for me this is good news. they called it a normal day. you could have a restorative day or a normal day or a very stressful day. it managed to claim -- i had some super high stress moments. >> you did? >> for certain hours. >> between the hours of 5:00 and 9:00 a.m.? >> actually, you may find this very strange. >> this is your zen place? >> this is my zen place. >> what does the rest of your life look like? >> if you watch my charts

between 6:00 and 9:00, it is actually quite level. >> i cannot say the same. >> how about 9:00 and 9:30? i did not want to see any of their aura rings. is it good between 9:00 and 9:30? >> yeah. >> you're among friends. >> all good. all good. >> talking about m-o-u-r-n-i-n-g joe. moving on. olof scholz fired his finance minister over limits of government borrowing. it fractures the government and scholz called for a confidence vote in january and pulling for the election from september to march. i'm gratified you're here with friends. i'm gratified this is your safe space >> i'm worried about the rest of

your day. >> what the hell happens after that? >> busy. in corporate news, shares of qualcomm are higher. the company earned 2$2.69 a share. revenue beat expectations. on the call, the ceo said that they will continue to transform qualcomm from the wireless communications company for the age of a.i. that stock is up by more than 8%. >> of course, still big questions of qualcomm will merge with intel. that is obviously something we have been following, the potential of that. >> they might be able to do it now. >> maybe. maybe. meantime, shares of lyft soaring with the strong guide aens answer for the quarter. earnings rising 17%. that beat estimates 24.4 million. unique riders taking trips for

the quarter. the stock falling nearly 10% after that report and ceo david risher will be on in the 8:00 hour where we will hear all about it. >> yesterday, the meeting began. today is the -- they moved it by one day to not be too close to the election. >> i was laughing. now we're going to hear from president-elect trump. great move. great move. not political at all. definitely something that should be happening. 100%. you know, real estate guy. now it benefits him instead of that horrible political, politically motivated cut of 50 basis points. right. come on. >> i'm smiling.

i'm laughing. >> you gotta. >> are you joking or are you serious? >> i wish i had a -- >> you see, i don't think my basic thing is i can go back -- >> they all want it. >> it makes it difficult because there are times where that's definitely not a good thing and it ends up to bite you in the butt, big time when you stay at zero for too long. things go where they shouldn't go and you have to clean p up t mess. we will get you ready for the key economic data and we have steve mnuchin. we'll speak to him about what's coming next. "squawk box" will be back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." on the planner, the fed's latest interest rate decision is due at 2:00 today, 2:00 p.m. eastern time. we talked ad nauseam and we will get the bank of england rate decision at 7:00 a.m. also expected to cut rates by a

quarter point. u.s. economic data on the docket. jobless claims and third quarter productivity numbers. we hear from hershey's and ralph lauren on the list. we will have moderna results and the first on cnbc ceo interview. and after the bell, expedia and airbnb and affirm holdings and warne warner bros. discovery. we have our latest here for the firm. i'm curious in the last 24 hours how you thought about anything. >> it's been an interesting 24 hours. i think markets are pricing in three things. first of all, deregulation and second is lower taxes and third, inflation. you saw it in the sector

reaction for financials and for energy and small caps. all of the sectors benefit from m& a and you saw immediate market reaction. on the lower taxes. a lot of promises made. no taxes on tips, you know, on overtime, on social security, potentially lower corporate taxes. however, what our washington analyst is telling me this is one to watch because the house is going to influence this a lot more than tariffs. >> therefore, you position yourself how? >> so, we've been long value stocks. when you talk about industrials doing well on the news of potential trade and changes to the trade picture globally, that's one way for an asset allocator to be positioned. it is a broadening of the market. we are actually neutral between large and small caps.

we think there are asset classes. we prefer being neutral. >> have you positioned yourself and done anything differently two weeks ago? a week ago? >> no. >> nothing. this election and whatever the aftermath and impact on the economy and the stock market, zero? >> i think it's positive. the problem is it's priced in. you are looking at markets with the price earnings ratio at 21. you are looking at spreads at an all-time high. we are long stocks, but not by a lot. that's how we were positioned going in the election. that's how we are positioned the day after the election. >> you know, joe mentioned when i walked in that gold fell yesterday. >> significantly. >> what does that say to you? do you say oh, my goodness, recession is in the offing in. >> it is counterintuitive. indi

pricing in inflation. the ten-year went up. >> oil should go down which is the opposite. >> yes, that, that with those policies that have been talked about on the campaign trail should be deflationary. if you take the whole thing and especially on lowering taxes acrossed b the board, you see inflationary and the sector rotation. >> do you think when it comes to something like -- like gas and oil, i don't know how many gas and oil companies you own. there is a question of how low the price can go if you drill oil and do all of the things that president-elect is now planning to do. we talked to darren woods at exxon say they don't want the price to go too low.

>> it's an inflation hedge. it's difficult to forecast. if you look at the one-year inflation swaps, they are less quietly over the last 24 hours. now they're at 2.5%. if you add a commodity shock and there are uncertainties of the geopolitics in the middle east that could create an inflation shock especially being tough on iran with the administration. tougher on iran. it remains a risk. we like having an inflation hedge in or portfolios right now. >> what about big tech? >> it's interesting. big tech did well not as well as energy, financials and instrumentals. there is a view pricing in the market for lower regulation for a.i. you see some big techs did better than other. those are great companies. they look expensive. if you look at the return on equities, they are really strong

equities. yeah, i think it will continue to do okay, but as allocators, you need to ask what is priced in. >> sebastian, thank you for coming in. >> appreciate it. when we come back, a read on consumer spending from two earnings movers. we dig into cosmetics and video games right after this. later, senator john thune will join us. he is seen as the front runner to be majority leader in the congress. "squawk box" will be right back.

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higher. earnings of 77 cents a share beat the estimate of 43 cents. revenue was up and beat expectations. the company, e.l.f. beauty raising full-year guidance. the cosmetics company has been under pressure this year. this morning, that stock support by better than 10%. of course, if you are looking pre-pandemic, it has been up sharply over that period of time. gain of 556%. that is thanks in part to viral marketing and prowess winning over shoppers with the prestige favorites. shares of take-two int interactive have been volatile. they initially fell by 3% after the company's forecast for game sales in the current quarter came in below expectations. sales in the prior quarter beat estimates and the company said its much anticipated grand theft

auto vi is set for launch in 2026. coming up, we will take you live to washington for the latest on the battle for control of the house. then later, the ceo of polymarket will join us on the cnbc exclusive interview at 7:10 eastern. maybe he can tell us who's going to win the house definitively? at this point, it seems like it might be a sweep and becky wore the reddest outfit i've ever seen. coming to grips. >> did you see ivanka trump was wearing blue? >> you were wearing blue. >> i picked my outfits out on sunday. i picked my outfits out on sunday. >> i was looking for a tie. totally non-descript ties.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. take a look at futures. we have the s&p 500 in the green again by ten points higher as of this hour. 6:29 eastern time. biggest election question left to be settled control of the house of representatives. emily wilkins joins us now. we were doing the math earlier adding what is already known.

what's left, emily? how many? >> reporter: we have a good number, if you are looking at what nbc news hasn't called. they haven't won the house yet, but they are getting closer and they feel really good. gop picked up seats in pennsylvania and michigan. democrats made gains in new york, but at this point, it's really coming down to a handful of races in california. for those of us who want a quick answer, thatcould take weeks due to mall-in ballot laws, particularly in california. look, republicans are feeling so confident in part because of latino voters. they have large latino populations and many are supporting republicans this election than previously. democrats are showing frustration with the results. senator bernie sanders said in a scathing statement yesterday, quote, it should come as no great surprise a democratic party which abandoned working

class people would find the working class has abandoned them. meanwhile, republicans are not waiting for that final call to be made. mike johnson sent out a letter to colleagues for support to remain speaker yesterday. house majority leader steve scalise sent a 100-day plan and keeping the tax cuts permanent and building a wall at the southern border. guys, a lot of confidence right now among house republicans. of course, we are still waiting to see the final results. they are not waiting to kick things into gear. >> i like bernie. >> i was going to say -- >> it's not bernie's fault he moved the democratic party so far left that the rest of the country's like who are these people? that's not bernie's fault. we have senator thune coming on later. is he in the running for majority leader?

>> reporter: he is. he is one of the top three, some would argue the top two candidates. we have thune and cornwyn. they have been raising money for the fellow senators and across the country raising money for them. they are making case both are going to be well positioned to lead the caucus for the next couple years particularly with the role they played in 2016 with the tax battle. that is a must-do for congress this year regardless of how the house turns out. they are not the only ones running. rick scott of florida is putting his hat in the ring. he is pitching him seself closeo donald trump and mike johnson. we are expecting to see the senate when they get back next week and have the conversation and decide who will be the majority leader. >> emily, the house was very, um, close for the last two years

and i -- i hear it won't -- i hear it wouldn't be that many additions theoretically. i wonder if those 10 or 12 or someone called them call actuale crazy eight of who would be speaker and ouster of speaker mccarthy and all those other things that happened. i wonder if the republicans, now they're the majority party in the senate, does that take away the influence of the far of whatever -- the freedom caucus, whatever you call those guys? >> i think donald trump and the presidency does. they want to do what donald trump wants at this point. >> reporter: joe, to be honest, it's going to depend what you see on the rules. in terms of passing legislation, if you have a group of republicans, let's say the ones who really want to see the elimination of the s.a.l.t. cap, they want to go back to that. if there's a big enough group and they're larger than the

difference with the minority, they can stop things going forward. it is a question of whhow much what they want to get done. you remember the biden trifecta. there was a constant battle because they had to deal with the small majority democrats had. i think absolutely. if you look at the senate, yeah, it's very clear that republicans have locked that down and won, but they're not looking at giant majorities at this point. that means any couple of members are still able to have a big say in how policy turns out. >> i will still say the individual members would have to withstand a landslide victory and who is outspoken. it may be difficult to stand up and say i'll not go along with that. it may be different you see the same number of independent

thinkers because it will be hard. >> they were all of the accolades of trump. the far right guys. now it could be even more -- you might have the mainstream guys having to move right, almost. i don't know. >> reporter: even if you look at who is coming back this congress and who is not. you have people considered more mainstream republican. they're just fewer of them coming this congress. you have seen the freedom caucus come and grow their number. there has been a shift from the last time that trump took power in d.c. and entered into the white house. he's working with a very different congress at this point in terms of the ideological makeup and how many people are there supporting him. it's going to be a different ball game than what we saw in his first term. >> all right. thank you, emily. let's take a look at shares of moderna. that company swinging to a surprise profit of 3 cents. the street was looking for a loss of 1.90. revenue came in at $1.86 billion. that beat the expectation of

$1.25 billion. the company's covid-19 spike vax vaccine accounted for $1.8 billion in sales. if you look at the comments from stephane bancel, he said they were focused on execution. he points out he was pleased with the cost efficiency that they achieved in the quarter. he said it tracks ahead where they plan to be at this time. he said looking at the fourth quarter and they are focused on sales growth and product approvals in the next three years and continuing to improve the cross structure. stephane bancel will join us in a few minutes. first on cnbc. you see the stock up 5% right now. coming up, we will talk geopolitics under president-elect trump's administration with elbridge colby who served during his first term. i'm sure he's up for something in the next administration.

he jni'soing us next. we're coming right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers.

president-elect trump faces a number of geopolitical challenges when he assumes office in january. our next guest can give us a view of the trump impoforeign policies. elbridge colby. you are a long proponent of, i know, peace through strength and a strong military, but one of the questions i've been sort of grappling with and i've asked some people recently harkens

back to the red line. i don't think the rest of the world really believes the obama administration about the red line. as it turned out, it either kept moving or was never in force. i recent think more recently the do don't, when they say don't. it was a glib answer that mullahs in iran rolled their eyes. that didn't work. let's say you enforce red lines. let's say you -- you actually act on your threats, whatever that is for you to do. does that not increase the possibility of a larger, um, of a larger conflict? >> well, great to be with you, joe. thrilled by the result here. decisive election of president trump here. i don't speak for him or make

any presumptions, but on your point, what i would stress about president trump's record which is important and we need is yes that strength part, but more flexibility. if you look at his policies on things like ukraine and the middle east and china and north korea, there's a combination that you and i with president nixon's record and president eisenhower's record, there is a fear of president trump and strength and unpredict ability, but also one of the points that's so compelling and people can see is why the ukraine war broke out under president biden is not only the perception of weakness you're talking about, but the rigid ty of the nato. i think what president trump, who ran on a peace plan form, but peace through strength platform as he said in his, very compelling, you know, acceptance

speech or celebration speech. i don't start wars. i end them. that is not just tony blinken style asking everyone to stop fighting. that is an openness to negotiating which used to be common sense in this country among republicans and democrats, but has lately become controversial and led to the disastrous straits we're in now. >> you know what's going on behind the scenes, elbridge, but i'm sure there is an open channel of communications to vladimir putin with trump. i'm certain he met with zelenskyy. what do you expect now and just reading what i see in reports, is it become more clear that -- that russia has recently began to make more -- more progress so

an outright ukraine victory is less likely at this point? what is the resolution of this look like with trump and putin? >> yeah, i think one of the absurd element is in the campai is ukrainians are not capable of a victory. now the intelligence community saying that. now he is not revealed his -- he's not revealed his precise plan. that's fairly common. i think what we've seen is he's open to talking to president putin. vice president vance what that would look like. i don't think we know, but i think there's a definitely a possibility and i think the russians, obviously, their economy has done reasonably welwell compared to expectations, but they would like to get out of

the situation they're in. there is a reasonable basis for ending this conflict. >> do you think it was one of the goals of the united states and lloyd austin to have the -- the russian army depleted from letting this go on so it strengthens our position in the future? >> well, this is one of the key points, joe, that i would really stress is that people talk about lloyd austin and others talk about degrading the russian army. that's not what happened. the russian military is stronger than what it started. from the sense of the cold, calculating view, that is to our benefit despite the losses. the problem is we have not resuscitated our base. that is something president trump pointed to on the tariffs and overall reindustrialization. our allies have not stepped up. especially in japan and taiwan.

it is already having an effect. he is already making arour alli spend more on defense. people were talking about trump. my view is he is doing you a favor. that's what ends up being a better situation. the journal was reporting that allies are worried. they should be worried. it's a dangerous world. we will make better peace deals that president trump is talking about if our allies are stronger. >> what do you think the approach to iranian is? i worry about iran and everything else. i'm sure they're not happy at this point. how will this play out? we don't have -- i don't know why i'm asking with 30 seconds left. what happens, you know, with israel, iran and the middle east? >> well, i think quickly, you see strong support for israel and understanding it's in a tough neighborhood and it will

need to take measures and matters into its own hand and backing them up rather than nagging them to badger them as you have seen with the administration. and iran, the clear playbook that trump led in last term and hopefully led again. running down that money. they have gone gang busters in the coffers to support their military and houthis and hezbollah. building on that model to empower allies and stop the finger wagging at mbs and have a better relationship with the saudis. i think president trump is poised to bring the middle east -- there will not be flowers of democracy and peace. i think president trump is very aware of that, but we can get to a better and more stable situation. >> colby sounds familiar to most people. william was your grandfather?

>> that's right, joe. >> grandfather. are you already advising any parts of the transition team yet? will it become more formal by the time -- by inauguration day? >> i stress again, i don't make any presumptions by my own role. there is strength and peace and the prospects of world war iii is real. i would be honored to serve in whatever capacity president trump might suggest. >> okay. we'll stay tuned with that, elbridge. we'll check in with you at least monthly, i hope. >> delighted. >> thanks. coming up, three morning movers that are under pressure in extended trading. we dig into the declines for arm and amc and a brutal week for solar stocks and what comes

next. later, the ceo of polymarkets will join us. you do not want to miss this discussion. we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." shares of arm holdings are falling this morning. off about 6%. the company's current quarter forecast came in below street estimates. signals struggles in the smartphone market may overshadow growth from a.i. the prior quarter, revenues and earnings came in above expectations. arm sticking with its full year forecast. and ceo of arm holdings will be on "squawk on the street" with the gang there at 10:00 eastern time first on cnbc. all right, coming up, moderna just out with results that came in well above

expectations. that stock this morning has been trading higher. right now it looks like it is up by almost 10%. the ceo stephane bancel will join us to talk about all of this with what hped apnein the quarter. he'll give us an update on the company's pipeline and reaction to the election. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the dow with dia. getting there starts here.

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moderna is swinging to a surprise profit of 3 cents. the street had actually been looking for a pretty big loss of $1.90 a share. revenue came in at 1.86 billion. that beat estimates of $1.25 billion. the stock right now looks like it is up by about 3.5%.

joining us right now first on cnbc is stephane bancel, he is moderna's ceo. and, stephane, let's talk through the numbers. this is a big surprise to the street. i think there were two things that happened. your sales were better than anticipated. second of all, you've been cutting costs at a faster clip than you had been anticipating. >> good morning, becky. yes, indeed, we are very pleased with the quarter. very good sales. the fda approved the covid vaccine in u.s. earlier than last year. the team was ready to scale up shipment very quickly. so if you look at the first week, we actually shipped twice as much product as last year. allowing pharmacies and hospital to have quick access to a vaccine for people who want to be productive. also outside the u.s., in most countries, vaccination campaign starts around october 1st. you have to get product in the country, ready to go,because

big national plan like you see in the uk. and then as you say, on the calls we sit a year ago, we look at the cost structure because, of course, during the pandemic we had to focus on speed. quality was something we could never compromise on. so speed was so important, obviously, to save lives. as we are going back into now normal world, the team has done an excellent job and i want to thank them. if you look at r&d, sg&a, we have done that throughout the year. and we think we still have opportunities to improve cost structure. it is going to be exciting. we have up to ten products to launch in the next few years from the two products that were available on the market. that should drive sales. thanks to investments in digital, investments in a.i., i think we'll be able to have a very nice leverage on the pnl

from a profitability standpoint. >> no question, these results are really impressive, better than the street was looking for. now the stock looks like it is up by about 6.5%. what portion of your sales come from the u.s., what portion comes from international sales, the rest of the world. >> so if you look at the entire year, it is around 50/50 split. of course, the u.s. is a very important market force, number one market. but given vaccinations, pretty broadly in terms of volume, there is a lot -- and some countries have a much higher vaccination rate than the u.s. as you know, one thing we worry about is the u.s. vaccination rate is still too low compared to flu. last winter, as you know, 600,000 americans got hospitalized, three times more than flu. in the elderly, it is much higher. that affects volumes of our vaccines. >> let's talk about the election results just in light of all of

this. robert kennedy jr. is going to be having some position, trump said it himself last night, when he was talking about his administration and his victory speech, speaking about some of these things. rfk jr. is going to have a role in the administration. we don't know what yet, but some of the things he said yesterday could include either help and human services secretary or white house health czar, some new position they may create around these issues. he has said that he is not going to be taking vaccines away from people, but he wants to make sure what he says is the proper information gets out there. he has been in the past very closely associated with saying -- he has said repeatedly that vaccines cause autism, he does have a lot of concerns about what happened in covid, he thinks that these covid vaccines got out without people really knowing the truth about them, not stopping transmission. and if the trump administration chooses to, they can say that a lot of these vaccines will no longer really be supported by

the cdc or advised by the cdc and that's how insurance guidelines are set. you could be looking at a much tougher way to get these ten vaccines that you have -- in your pipeline fully approved in the time frame you're looking at and could have issues, you already said that vaccine hesitation is here in the united states, you've seen it over the last three years and moderna shares over the last three years have reflected that as well. what do you do with this new administration? >> so, first of all, we always worked very collaboratively in any country including, of course, in the u.s. we work with quite a number of administration, during the first term of president trump. we have the same mission and the same goal, to make sure people are healthy. and we believe that prevention is really important. eating healthy, exercise, sleeping well, but, of course, vaccines are very important for prevention of disease.

and so we will, of course, work with public officials. we are a science company. we believe in data. we care deeply about the safety of our products. we don't, you know, go into this business to hurt people. we want to protect people from getting sick with vaccines or treat people like with our cancer product that are already sick. and so we are totally aligned with the same goals and we will work very closely with the administration. >> where is the status right now of the cancer work that you all are doing? that's what a lot of people have looked to. >> so, we're very excited that the study is now fully enrolled. we are basically now waiting for results. as you know, the phase two study was extremely encouraging. post treatment, two out of three people with no -- huge milestone compared to the best drug

available, you know it was compared to a drug from merck, as you know. we're very excited, we have more and more studies. the team are discussing more studies. we believe this technology that is individualized to every human being based on their cancer, of dna, of cancer cells. we think it is a new way to do medicine, customized for everybody. the data are very encouraging and we believe as we evolve the technology, as we go earlier in disease, because phase two was for stage three and stage four patient. we believe we will have better outcomes for patients. >> stephane, thank you. stephane bancel, the stock up by 6.3%. >> thank you. >> it is just past 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with bill kernen and becky quick. a lot going on this morning.

among today's top stories, the fed's latest interest rate decision, it is due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. it will be followed by a news conference by chair jay powell, central bank expected to cut rates by a quarter point. steve liesman will have the results of the cnbc fed survey in just a moment. we'll bring it to you. plus, on capitol hill, the balance of power in the house not officially yet decided. republicans have won 209 seats to 187 for the democrats, 218 seats are needed for control. meantime, shares of qualcomm sharply higher, the company earning $2.69 per share, beat estimates of $2.56. revenue beating expectations. current quarter revenue guidance impressing the street. central bank cutting by a quarter point to 4 3/4.

the fed will make its decision on interest rates later this afternoon. the central bank widely expected to cut by a quarter point this time around. let's get to our senior economics reporter steve liesman with the results of the cnbc fed survey. >> good morning, joe. results of the cnbc fed survey, which we gathered before the election, days before the election, shows the fed is expected to continue reducing rates, but less than previously thought and now with a major question about how the fed responds to the new political landscape in washington. 96% say cut is coming this week. one said they were not changing rates. 79% see another cut in december. here are the average forecasts over the next periods here, 4.4% by year end, 3.6% by year end, going down eventually to a neutral rate of 3.3%. after december, the 28 respondents see the fed adopting in every other meeting we have

seen. skip january, cut in march, skip may, cut in june. overall, most respondents think the fed should ignore fiscal plans for now and continue reducing rates. in fact, only 14% said the fed should hold off cutting because of fiscal uncertainty. 79% said go ahead, the fed should ignore it and keep reducing rates. here's the reason. 78% say the reason to cut is because real or inflation adjusted rates had become more restrictive. you want to bring it down. that's the whole idea of essentially recalibrating. gila boss says 90% plus of u.s. economic activity is going to continue as is regardless of what political party leads our government and pretty much all of that private sector stuff is chugging along healthily. but ahead of the election, we did ask about tariffs and more than half say they are paid by u.s. companies and consumers. 37% say they are equally split and 4% say they're paid by foreigners

22% say they're extremely inflationary and 59% say somewhat. it led to a modest uptick in expected inflation in 2025. the biggest factor for this group is the possibility of unified government. they're going to have to really pay attention because stuff may really happen if you have a unified government, forecasting when there is deadlock, it is a lot easier, joe. >> yeah. all comes down to whether restrictive still. i guess you kind of sold me on that overall. has it been years? only months, but it seems like years, does it not? >> years for what, joe? >> that we have been talking about whether -- >> yesterday. >> yeah, since yesterday. >> about whether we're restrictive or not. >> well, i mean, i guess they hit that benchmark in july of 2023, i want to say. they hit that 5.5% market. over that time period, it has been coming down to the point

where it has come down quite a lot, the inflation rate, down 2% or so or 2.5%, depends which metric you use. and inflation is in a better place than it was before. and probably not necessitating such a high rate. but this notion of where that neutral rate is, that terminal rate, that's the debate. give me one second, i want to show you the october -- the november 2025 fed funds contract, which may be a little hard to understand what it is showing here, that rate ends up being higher down the road than it was before. you're now at what is it the number there, 380, okay. what does that tell you. look where it was before. 280. that's where they think a year from now the fed will be. it is 100 basis points higher than it was before. so, certainly the market is looking for fewer cuts in there, and then you got to factor in what fiscal policy is going to do. the boe saying this morning the bank of england that trade barriers create an upside risk to prices along with the middle

east conflict. so, i think everybody is going to be trying to price in what the president elect means when he talked about tariffs. you might, by the way, have an influx of imports. people trying to get around the tariffs, some talk about that the ports are kind of busy right now. so we'll see what happens there. and what happens to, by the way, tax rates and as a lot of people, joe, came on this air, surrogates, supporters of president trump said, you got to take the whole plan into context, and we just don't know what the whole plan is. >> steve, very quickly. earlier this morning, we were talking about how wrong all the polls were and how it changed everything. steve points out and we should give him some props on this, the last cnbc all america economic survey had trump up 2, he's now up 3.3 in the national vote, but 10% is still out. a lot of it is in california. that could mean that all america economic survey was pretty right. >> yeah. i feel pretty good about it. i also feel really good about the idea that we very early on,

first quarter, when we did -- among our surveys, we nailed this issue of inflation and the economy and how much people who thought inflation was the big issue and the economy broke for president trump. and that was a really important part of it and we saw, by the way, i don't know if you remember our latino poll which very much masked what we saw in the exit poll. we did this in september with our friends at nbc and telemundo, it showed the erosion of latino support for the democratic party and, in fact, it almost exactly matched what was in the exit polls in terms of the erosion of latino support. i think we did a pretty good job. where i would like to know better, becky, is this idea of -- one of our pollsters talked about this. they said, as goes one of the states, so they all go. this idea that there was this sweep across the blue wall, kind of tells you that when you saw what was happening in one of the states, you should have maybe modeled it for the rest of the

states. we didn't do state polling, but the state polling was pretty lousy across the board, i thought. >> don't hire ann seltzer next year for your blue wall states. >> what was that, joe? the music was playing, sorry. >> nothing. >> it was a joke. >> it was a joke. it was actually funny too, steve. when we come back -- >> we got to go. we got a lot coming up. in just a moment, the role and influence prediction markets played in 2024 in this election and how they beat the traditional polls in so many ways. we have an exclusive interview with the ceo of polymarket right after this. $3.7 billion pouring into his platform for the presidential race. he's going to join us exclusively when "squawk box" returns after this. it all started with a small business idea.

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welcome back to "squawk box." big night for prediction markets and calling president trump-elect as winner at the polls closed and in the week leading up to the election. the presidential election contracts on polymarket indicated trump had a wider lead ahead of vice president harris in the polls. the man who led so much of this is shayne coplan, the ceo of polymarket. and we're thrilled to have you here. your first interview on tv. >> yeah, thanks so much for having me, guys. >> you've been in the headlines a lot. before we get into the whole thing, have you slept? what did you do the night of the election? >> it was a late night. it was a late night. i want to preface, thank you for having me.

my first tv interview. and, you know, as much as we feel an obligation with polymarket being right and the most of most accurate way to follow the election, you were the first to talk about polymarket on tv and make it a thing. you got a lot of flack for that. i appreciate you guys. hopefully you feel the same sense of victory that we do. >> we do, but let me ask you this, did you ever worry that the -- that the markets, your market, might not be right? >> yeah, i think that, you know, as we got bigger, we went from being like a small niche site to sort of being a mainstream and almost household name fairly quickly, and i think that if you take a step back, a lot of the criticism and the hit pieces were really, like, based on misinterpretations of what polymarket was. it was difficult to take those at face value when if anyone looked into it, it was clear there were -- >> a lot of critique was are people trying to manipulate the

market, could one or two big whales do something, you did your own investigation into this -- >> yes, yes. i think the thing that people get wrong about polymarket, the thing i wish people would understand better and maybe now that they're more open minded to it is that if someone takes a really big position on trump, for example, there is someone on the other side, a counterparty, all peer to peer, there is a big position being taken on harris. and because of that, and, you know, when you see the odds on polymarket, it is not a function of how much money was put on either side. it is a function of market price at that moment. it is the tightest spread for this market in the world. and i think that when you think about it like that, some trade that someone made two weeks ago doesn't have bearing on what the market price is right now. so, all i can say is i understand that, you know, it is a novel concept and people were skeptical when it came around, but hopefully people will be more embracing of market-based information. >> even if my -- no one likes to

lose money. the big french trader, i don't know if you're watching, he's not very well known, his name was elon musk. >> that was a good one. >> a good one, wasn't it? a guy who doesn't care about even $100 million, i would think most people, nobody likes to lose $10. i'm a prime example of that. when i bet, it kills me if i lose it. no one is going to throw money away unless they really can. even a person like that, could they manipulate the polymarket? >> it is a great question. so, you know, if we one through that simulation, right, it is, like, unlike the stock market and we have all these stocks back here, you know, the saying is the market can stay irrational as long as it stays solvent because you have leverage and all different types of things that can happen. with polymarket, the outcome is going to happen regardless. there is no leverage and you can clearly understand the true

value of a share and outcome share by just understanding and trying to discern what the probability is of that outcome. >> to answer your point, so if someone is coming in and basically is ready to lose money, what that is basically saying is they're willing to buy overpriced shares. and i think, you know, we know this, but there is a lot of excuse me smart money on the site. paying attention to it. people, you know, they're really smart all around the world. and if there is uninformed flow, price insensitive flow, people will take that risk. granted, it is up to the market to go and interpret a lot of flow. if there is a large influx of flow, informed or uninformed flow. that's a function of the markets working. as we saw, this time around, right, this was someone with an infinite bankroll and didn't push the market up that much. and he had done a lot of

research and had ynonconsensus information. you've been one of our biggest champions. >> as it would fluctuate, it would fluctuate tenths of a point and i would be like, oh, no. what is that? one more thing that happened, it gave me a lot of power on election night. i was watching, either cnn or one of those channels which i don't watch a lot, but i was watching it and they were microanalyzing the remaining counties left in georgia and polymarket was at 89% for trump in georgia. and i watch it, and they spent 20 minutes pretending that -- and she's doing what looks like it is possible she's going to pick some up here. and it is, like, it's over! i was screaming at the tv. it's over. no way in hell that she -- that it is going to happen in georgia for her. >> yeah. on the money. look, like, okay, there's the forecast the weeks before --

>> i almost called cnn. >> i love it. there is the forecast weeks before, but the thing that is undeniable was the night of the election, polymarket was the first destination to basically convey that trump had won. and it was a good two, three hours ahead of media. so much so that people who were watching media, you know, hours later were, like, oh, wow, you know, polymarket has kamala so low, we were in the office and we were looking at the odds and, you know, on polymarket and looked like a done deal and if you were watching tv, you would think it was neck and neck. i think this is a complete shift of the -- it is an inflection point in news and politics where polymarket -- >> from the -- from the jd vance debate on is when it started. you could see it on polymarket. >> shares of djt -- it was

market-based. >> it is. >> people placing money and -- >> i think a large block at djt can move it. >> andrew made the point earlier, it is only going to be as smart as the wisdom of the crowds and the people who are betting, whether it is the smart money or whether it is not, if you have people who are -- and i guess your point is they're not betting what they think or with their gut or with their want, these are people that are highly informed that are making the bets. >> it doesn't need to be all highly informed people. it can be people that know nothing. that adds liquidity in the market. the saying of free markets goes, a nod to the late great frederick kayak and robert hanssen, the real thought liters and pioneers of these ideas, a diverse -- a disparate group of market participants like on polymarket is more accurate than any given expert. >> let me ask you about the polls. elon musk posted, you probably saw this weeks before the election, he said polymarket

was, quote, more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. what do you think of the polls? one of the things is the polls to some degree i have to imagine are the basis -- maybe not, maybe i'm wrong on this, as the polls moved around a little bit, polymarket moved around a little bit. >> it is one data point, yeah. it is one data point. i think what -- >> what do you think is going on with the polls in america? >> i apologize to the pollsters, i hope we didn't put any of them out of business, but the thing about the polls is that what people really want to know is what is likely to happen. and people look at the polls and see polls that tell you one thing and polls that tell you the other thing and people gravitate to the pollsters that are funded, you know, by people that share their political beliefs and it becomes useless. now, what is cool about polymarket, the people who are market participants are going and looking at the polls and filtering through what matters. they're pricing in whatever information is coming out through polls and through other things that matter to the point where, you now, like you've

been saying, all you have to do is look at polymarket. >> speak to this dynamic, you're based in soho, new york. >> yes. >> the people who technically are allowed to bet and use polymarket are not aloud to be in this country. >> right. >> so what does that say about what they know? >> exactly. >> that's a function of us starting -- that's what we saw on twitter, start agency a really small startup with basically no money and figuring out how to build the product the right way, and i think that's awesome for all the players in the u.s. market, for us the largest global player, yesterday there was a report, we have 84% global market share which is really exciting. we're in the position to be able to go and be aggressive around expansion. >> how important is it for you to be in the u.s. market? >> it is part of the plan. to go back to what you said, you know, the idea is if you can go

and build a free market, right, where people are trading outcome shares that pay out $1 effectively, per, you know, er share, what you're modeling is the likelihood of that happening and what we want to do is build a free market to the best of our ability, you know, within the bounds that we had to so that you can go and anyone can go and see the odds of these things. and it is humbling. i got calls from mar-a-lago and they were, like, we were talking -- polymarket was shouted out while we were there. this is how everyone in there were celebrating. they were looking at polymarket which is surreal. it is surreal. but, you know, i think it's -- look, this is a case study, right? and if this is sort of where it ends, i don't think that we have even scratched the is surface of how -- >> do you think any of this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

the people that are worried about betting on elections think there is a psychological impact it can have on actually changing the outcome and that the people who are betting do have an impact. i remember in the last couple of days, some of the pollsters were saying, more women were coming out to vote, then one of the other points that some people made, and i don't know if this was true, was that most of the people who are betting on places like polymarket and others happen to be men. maybe it was underrepresenting the way women would think about these things. >> so i think that -- i think a lot of that stems from the fundamental misunderstanding that it is the -- it is people voting with money rather than it being a market. and you looking at market price. and ultimately the best thing we have to go and discern likelihood is a disparate group of market participants, trading, and looking at market price. and that's what we have done. i think that polymarkets in the mainstream now. we'll continue to make it simpler, more accessible, we're continuing to engage, and we'll get to a point where there is a

more diverse group of market participants. for the time being, we have to be lucky that polymarket exists. >> what do you want to bet on? do you think that there are things that shouldn't be? >> i think the premise of polymarket, i'm not the know all oracle. i don't know everything about politics or what people want. we believe in markets. and what we're excited about is letting people ask their own questions. that is the -- >> what is the craziest thing people have bet on thus far? >> you got to go through the market history. not to go so nearby, but i think that the moment where polymarket became something that, you know, was greater than i had -- not that i had dreamed of, this is what i had dreamed of, but had taken off on its own was when we called biden dropping out. that was a big moment where people had said to me, really, really trustworthy people said to me, you know, polymarket is

either going to become the most important website in the world or a joke and the laughingstock depending what happens with biden and when we were the sole place to call him dropping out. >> i could have told you biden was dropping out two years ago. >> if i'm an outsider, i would have to say well you're saying this -- >> any normal person could have told you -- >> at the same time, if you were watching biden press conferences, he said he wasn't going to. >> you're 26. what did you study? how did you build this? you're so young. >> thanks so much. i feel old. i started polymarket when i was 21. i think i was just a very curious and very nerdy teenager. i read a lot. >> did you study economics, math? >> i studied a lot of things but on internet. both my parents teach at colleges. so i guess i had the learning gene. but, you know, i am excited. i always felt i was running behind. i've been into this stuff just markets in general since i was

14. i went to high school a few blocks from here. and, you know, i'm just -- i'm grateful we built something that, you know, a few weeks ago that we have been talking and i haven't done any press and i really do believe in letting the work speak for itself. and there is a lot of hit pieces, interpretations, and now i'm proud to say all the misunderstandings, the cream has risen to the top and we can see the value in something like polymarket. >> you were talking about how markets, they're almost sacred. they're not only right about this, not only right about predictions, right about how to allocate capital, right about supply and demand and how much -- they're as close to something that is absolute in what they can tell you. >> absolutely. >> than anything in the world. and we still haven't learned that. >> and to bring it back -- >> somehow 100 smart people in washington will be better than the markets at doing things which will never happen.

>> there you go and that ties back to -- you can use markets to aid in making decisions, but to tone it back, i'll bring it back to day one and the mission was to harness the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you and i think we're delivering on that mission. >> shayne, come on back. we appreciate it. >> appreciate your support all the way. >> i love that -- you came up and gave me a hug. >> yes, yes, you deserve it. you deserve it. >> hugs are always nice. hugs are always nice. >> you're a natural, by the way. i can't believe this is your first television. >> thank you very much. i woke up, i was, like, am i going to fall asleep on set. >> you did great. >> we were facetiming last week. >> thank you, guys. >> this is incredible. this is my -- not my last time on tv, my first time, always my favorite. >> up next, we have a rundown of some of today's stock movers and then we're going to talk balance of power and new leadership positions with west virginia

senator shelley moore capito. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia qstn.ueio what year was hillary clinton elected to the u.s. senate? the answer when "squawk box" returns. you gotta tell employers to take another look at all the benefits they're offering. everybody wants to build the best team and offering aflac can help attract and retain that top talent. you know we like that top talent. and listen, i mean you gotta listen. aflac gives employees cash to help with unexpected medical bills. it's prime time to add aflac. request a call today at aflac.com/prime

>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year was hillary clinton elected to the u.s. senate? the answer, 2000. she was the first lady to win elected office. >> and welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu with a look at the early morning movers. qualcomm shares sharply higher, roughly about 6% or so after reporting fourth quarter earnings and revenue that beat analyst estimates. the company guided to a stronger december quarter as well. the ceo told analysts on the call that qualcomm will continue to transform from a wireless communications company into a connected company, computing company for the age of artificial intelligence. so, qualcomm shares up 6%. elf beauty up higher, up 10% after an earnings beat. also sales that jumped 40% in

its fiscal quarter. the cosmetics company raised full year guidance. the ceo told cnbc that elf is seeing a multigenerational appeal saying they're number one in terms of brand among gen z by a wide margin. so elf beauty shares up 10%. and let's end with a look at ride share giants lyft and uber. the company reported earnings that beat sxestimates and issue strong earnings guidance for the current quarter. just to give you a look at the comparative results over the course of the year to date period, uber outperforming lyft up until just now, so that catch-up trade in full effect, andrew. keep an eye on ride share. back over to you. >> thank you for that. want to make a mention that lyft ceo david risher will be with us first on cnbc, 8:45 eastern time this morning. don't miss that conversation. got a lot more coming up on

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all right, republicans have

taken back control of the senate and leadership elections will be held next week. joining us right now with what's at stake is west virginia republican senator shelley moore capito, who is running for policy chair. that's the fourth ranking position in the senate. right now she's in the fifth ranking position. senator, thank you very much for being with us today. obviously, a lot of plans are being put in place right now. what do you think will be the legislative goals that are first undertaken in this new administration? >> well, the good news here, because we have been preparing for this, i think a lot of us were very optimistic, that president trump would be re-elected, so we have been over the last -- over the summer, looking at ways that we can make substantive changes from the very beginning. what i think that you'll see us doing obviously the tax cuts that we passed in 2017 are going to be coming up and they are

essential to getting this economy moving, and going in the direction that the voters really, i think, demonstrated on tuesday. they wish it to go. but that is an all hands on deck as you can imagine because it is going to be a massive undertaking. and with the house hopefully retaining their majority, we have the numbers to be able to do that. the other things we have been doing, i do a lot of work in the environment in transportation space, is to look out for the regulatory environment that just has been loaded up over the last four years to streamline that to dismantle a lot of the stuff that has been put in that really holds up progress because we know that to be able to take advantage of our energy resources we need good regulatory policies that actually promote the development of our energy resources and president trump talked about that. so, we have had prediscussions, we will begin them again as we return on tuesday and see how

and what is possible and certainly where president trump wants to go first. >> it sounds like you say president trump is going to be leading this. within the caucus, is there certainty about things that they would like to do first, that the senate in your caucus in the senate would like to do first too or is this waiting for direction from the president-elect? >> i think by preplanning ahead through the summer, we have already established some of our priorities that really meld with what the president was talking about. tax reform being one, of course. and unleashing our energy resources and stop the stymieing of our domestic development of energy. i think also the regulatory environment, particularly around the environment has just been so -- and the spending around that has just been so over the top. so dismantling a lot of that, i think that's what we'll look at first. critically important is going to be the nomination process, we're

hoping that the president can get nominees before us so he can hit the ground running when he takes the oath of office. that's going to be a very important part of that january work space. >> is there consensus in your caucus around immigration? i didn't hear that on the list. >> thank you for reminding me. immigration is top of the list. the president, i think, when he was in, you know, in 2016 to 2020 made significant steps towards lowering those numbers, to making the process better, to keeping -- we wouldn't have 10 million undocumented folks in this country right now as we have through the biden administration, so, yes, we will go to immigration rather quickly and i think that you'll see results will occur because i think the deterrence factor that president trump brings with the policies will be a part of where you see the numbers coming down

dramatically. >> we are looking at the house races still. there is about 39 seats that have not been called yet. i think republicans are probably feeling more optimistic about maintaining control of the house than the democrats are in terms of taking it at this point. but what does that mean? and how much of a majority is needed in order to get things through because the last couple of years there has not been much that made it through the house, even with the republicans leading. >> you know, it is very significant. and i know sometimes inside baseball or how we work is sometimes difficult to understand because the senate usually has a 60 vote threshold. but with the president being republican, the house and the senate, that through our budget reconciliation, we have to get a budget through, we can then move, which is what we did in 2017, we can then move policies on a simple majority in the senate. and not every policy, but a lot

of policy and statements. so, i think that's where the significance of the house majority is going to really come into play. in terms of numbers, you know, the bigger the better, obviously. and i'm just pleased that i'm going to be a chairman and that we're going to have control over the agenda in the united states senate to help president trump move through where obviously had a very overwhelming grassroots effort to say we want policies that help us and make our lives better. >> we are going to be joined by senator john thune coming up later in the program. who are you supporting for majority leader? >> well, you know, it is a really difficult choice. there are three men who are going to succeed senator mcconnell. i think that everybody has great strengths. i'm not going to weigh in on one or the other. they're all good friends. that's part of the problem. but i think we will sort it out, have a strong leader. we have to have a strong leader not just to support the

president, but also to fight back and to defend the conservative policies the american people demanded on election day. a lot of that has to do with fiscal poteresponsibilities. that's a tough fight when you have a 60-vote threshold but also when you have senator schumer who has been the leader will be pushing us every single day. we need someone who can take the arrows for us. >> thank god we have a 60-vote threshold. don't take it for granted. >> no. it is good. and i've been one of those that has been in the thought that the filibuster is exceedingly important, no matter who is the president. it is exceedingly important for the best policies for the country, no doubt. >> someone was joking yesterday and said, republicans could get rid of the filibuster, add ten 30-year-old conservative judges to the supreme court and stack it for the next 80 years. i mean, just a thought.

>> well -- >> i don't think -- >> one party might do that. i think it is an idea. >> here's what got me about the whole filibuster discussion. we signed a letter. i signed a letter during -- with several other republicans and a lot of democrats and i believe 2017, 2018 when president trump was president before and said, let's preserve the filibuster. this is for the long haul here, this is not what happens tomorrow. and the democrats walked away from that. all of them except for manchin and cinema. and so i think that -- i don't think we'll have a huge discussion around this because i think we have so much on our plate. there may be pressures from externally to eliminate the filibuster and go big. but what would happen, four years later, it happens over again. >> that was a joke. that was sarcasm. don't do it. >> don't worry, joe. we will not be doing that. >> should be hard to pass laws. should be hard. you should need both sides to pass big laws.

>> agree. >> the swings are very harmful and we're not going to do that. i can pretty much guarantee you that. >> senator capito, thank you for joining us. >> she got the memo. as we mentioned, senator john thune will be joining us at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. "squawk box" will be right back. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly and lexaria has entered a new relationship

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a few movers based on earnings to tell you about this morning. under armour reporting 30 cents a share. that's 10 cents better than estimates. expectations and the company is raising its guidance for the full year, and you can see shares up about 15%, and warner brothers discovery is higher despite missing third-quarter revenue estimates on weakness in its studio unit, but the company's streaming segment added 7.2 million direct to consumer subscribers and that topped expectations of 6.28 million. we've got that stock up almost 4%. >> coming up in just a moment we will talk about this, elon musk's role in president trump's administration. will he be taking out the kitchen sink wn heit come the to cost-cutting? that and so much more when

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one of president-elect donald trump's strongest supporters, entrepreneur elon musk says he's just getting started with his political ventures. joining us to discuss that, the government efficiency commission and more is tim higgins "the wall street journal" business columnist and cnbc contributor. you know, vance was a big deal, tim, but if -- seriously, if you had to point to maybe one thing, a total game changer for the election of donald trump this time i think elon musk had a lot to do with it in a lot of different ways. almost as much as shapiro would have had if that had been the vice presidential pick for -- i don't think it would have changed thing, but i think it would have made it a lot closer. >> you know, it's interesting.

i spent a lot of time in pennsylvania and he was campaigning like a candidate. i was polling and asking people when they were coming out of the ballot box asking about their opinions and elon was injecting a lot of excitement to people and they might have been trump supporters, but this took them to another level. it took them to the idea that elon would be involve in the trump administration and got people salivating at the notion of them getting in there and cutting government and cutting spending like he did at twitter turned x. >> i think he is perceived to be -- i don't even know if there are numbers that -- i don't know how his brain works, i don't know if i.q. worked for that. it doesn't necessarily make him a great judge of people or a judge of character, and i certainly think an endorsement there spoke to a lot of people -- i'm thinking of some

other billionaires where their endorsement didn't matter quite as much especially when, you know, the perception of how smart they are. i won't mention any names. >> i think i know who you're talking about, but a segment of people that i spoke to that was very important was young men. time and time again i was on the campaign trail seeing young men coming out, telling me that they were just thrilled to see this guy who they considered a hero, who they drew inspiration. at one stop at one of the philly suburbs, one guy hadn't been employed since the covid pandemic, and was talking about how he just saw elon speak and he was inspired feeling like he had some purpose in his life that he could go pursue, and the idea that elon was giving young men purpose by going out and voting, that's pretty powerful. >> yes. you would -- you would have to -- you would have to think so.

okay. where am i going from here? i was already seeing bumper stickers that said i like my car, i like my tesla. elon, shut up. so i was already seeing those. is this going to hurt any of his businesses at this point? i mean, you look at the -- i don't know what you call it. the recrimination, everything to the losing side at this point, and i don't know what. there's, like, seven stages, aren't there? i don't know where we are right you in. we're in one of the early ones. it's not really denial. certainly not acceptance. we're in one of them. will it be worse? will there be people that would never buy a tesla that formerly wanted to help the client and buy a tesla? >> absolutely. people i heard from are absolutely saying that. yes, he very much appealed to certain people, republicans, very excited, but these aren't necessarily ev buyers and we've

seen in the consumer data this year a pullback among democrats who say that they wouldn't consider a tesla. democrats, as you know, are big buyers of electric vehicles and had been big supporters of tesla in the past so this is a risk going forward if this is seen as a political brand that could be a challenge. >> what's going to happen to truth social? that's the hardest thing to really understand this weird, you know, trump's on x now and elon is attached at the hip. it seems like it would benefit x at this point. we've never understood why it's almost a meme stock, but how does it work itself out? >> i think that is one of the dramas to play out, but i think one of the winners here in the election season has been x. maybe not having the same user base that it once had, but engagement is up according to

third party data and it clearly is part of the conversation. elon might have lost money on the acquisition. it might not be as valuable as it once was, but his personal brand, clearly, it's a huge winner for him. >> it would have been difficult if there was no x if you had during this election had had to depend on legacy media. i guess maybe we're legacy media. i probably shouldn't say these thing, but thank god for x. >> it's interesting. all that money that he poured in, that's important, right? a lot of billionaires pour money into an election. it was his ability to command the media narrative. using x and his celebrity, these things in hindsight were huge advantages and were more important than the money he put

into the race. >> right. i guess i shouldn't have said that to you, either. tim, i'm sorry. we need legacy media. i love legacy media. i do. i love it. we'll fix it. >> wsj.com. don't forget to go. >> we'll fix it and forget it. >> mr. shapiro may have performed better. he might have, but if he didn't win he would have been thrown in the trash heap. >> i think the whole campaign could have been different. i really do. i think the whole campaign, i said that right at the very beginning, i thought he's an assassin. he's smart. he's happening. he's got an incredible future and the guy she picked that was her first decision and that was the craziest pick in the history of -- and there were recriminations. >> i don't know if the vice president would have been the answer. >> i think the recriminations have to start with biden -- with joe biden and joe biden and pelosi. >> the party elders were controlling everything anyway. >> i understand, but they wanted biden. >> don't blame him. >> anyone who is president wants

to stay president. >> and that was the campaign. >> that was fundamentally the problem and then harris, unfortunately, for her cause was not the candidate -- >> the first decision on. >> and i don't think they ran a good campaign. >> you saw shapiro. you've seen him speak and the very first decision was the guy -- >> 40 and 50 state -- >> 48 of 50 states went more republican than they had, and even the states that didn't win. >> i don't think it would have made a difference, but you say vice presidents don't make a difference. i think the turn started with j.d. vance's debate. i think that's when the turn. that's when i started watching poly market. >> sure. the real issue was that there a honeymoon period that was inevitably going to end. it happened to end around the time of that debate and i don't think the debate itself was it. >> you saw someone make a case for electing trump than trump made himself.

i think once he started asking the hard questions and some of the answers were not the answers that separated her from biden. >> democrats have a much wider bridge in the party between what they want to do and they're trying to please -- >> at that point people were grasping straws for anybody other thanned biden and they exhibit the qualities by being able to accept the appointment of their candidate. >> when she was asked, what are you going to do differently from biden, and she said it's the same, basically. >> that was a tough position to be in. >> what you needed to say was, you know what? i learned a lot. there are things we can do right and by the way, i know where the bodies are buried and i know how to fix it, for some reason that was never said. >> she is part of the biden administration and that's hard to separate. >> every day you were talking about the economy was great. >> it was. >> why try to differentiate yourself from the record that

you were the vice president of? >> there are certain things we did right and certain things we did wrong. the immigration piece we got wrong. she wasn't in charge of it. >> now we know that in hindsight. the czar. >> thanks to tim. >> -- figure out what went wrong. sam, thanks. he escaped. it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" on, kr nbc and i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. >> the pulse went down. he's like a guy in the height of -- right now -- >> he's like top gun, a mig just flew by and your pulse didn't change. like hannibal lector with the tongue. >> i mentioned hannibal elector. i'm trump. >> fed decision day. >> this is great, actually. i'm, quote, unquote, engaged. >> lock in. >> you're already married.

let me tell you quickly, the u.s. central bank expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later today and we'll find out for sure at 2:00 p.m. eastern time and fed chair jay powell will address the media. speakingf 25 basis point rate cuts and that's what the bank of england did today. it brings the key rate to the 4.75%. it's the second time the boe has cut rates this year and on the corporate front check out shares of lyft surging after reporting third quarter results that were better than expected. revenue was up by over 20% year over year and they forecasted fourth quarter bookings and that stock -- wow, check it out. it's up by 24% and we'll speak with the lyft ceo david risher. >> we were talking for those coming in at 8:00, and becky had some interesting data in the 6:00 hour about how people's heartbeats and other stressors

worked the day of the election. >> they were up across the board. >> they were up. >> it says -- by the way, i was in restored and relaxed mode for most of the broadcast and then just in the last three -- >> engaged. >> which means i was engaged to start off. what it says is your body's stress levels aren't at their peak, but they are activated a bit. [ laughter ] >> i think we all need to get the ring. >> i might need to get one of those, too. mine might say the same thing. >> thank god i have three dogs. >> steven mnuchin will join us and he'll talk about trump's economic data. squawk box will be right back. two. three. four. five. -knock it off. -perfect. -let's go. -i have no room! j.j. watt! hey! where is everybody? i made my family disappear.

you're not t.j. i can't put my arms down! you sit on a throne of lies. uh, mom? jj! shhhh. sorry, guys. i was just in there having the best night of my life. oh. what's this? it's a beaut', jage. it's a beaut'. get in the car, boys. all right. here we are. all right. sorry.

welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu with a check of early moving movers. qualcomm shares up by 6.5% after reporting better-than-expected profits and sales driven by a 12% jump in sales for smartphone chips as well as an 86% jump in automotive parts. qualcomm is continuing its pivot on being more focused on artificial intelligence and the other chip stock in focus is arm holdings. those shares lower by 4.5%

despite reporting q2 revenues and profits that beat expectations. the revenue in line with wall street targets that potentially dashed some investor hopes for stronger ai-fueled growth. for more on those results and that story tune into "squawk on stn street" at 10:00 a.m. eaertime with arm holdings ceo rene haas. keep it here after this commercial break. insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back to "squawk box." president-elect donald trump made many economic prommeses on the campaign trail and joining us with how he might go implementing those. joining us is steven mnuchin with liberty capital, and we are grateful tol have you on the broadcast this morning. steve, help us understand what you think is possible, what is not possible and what could be done perhaps through executive actions and -- and what is going to need both the senate and the house and how you think some of those issues play out? >> obviously, we're very excited about what the economic plan is and my expectation is it's a large extension of many of the great success that president trump achieved in the first

term. top priority is extending the trump tax cuts and the signature part of his program. i think that should be easy to pass in congress particularly if the republicans control the house as well which it looks like it will be. the second thing is i would make sure that all the sanctions are restored. the sanctions on iran and russia were very impactful. in the case of iran they are now selling millions of barrels of oil which needs to be stopped, and the third part is re-enacting his trade agenda. i think that tariffs do need to be used to get the parties back to the table especially china which is not living up to all of the agreements they made in the phase one trade agreement. >> want to get to the tariffs in a moment, but i want to get back to the tax piece for just a second. extending that and making the tax cuts that you folks

implemented permanent clearly is a priority. the question i'd ask is how much does that get even adjusted from here which is to say that the president-elect now has suggested a corporate tax rate not just of 21%, but possibly 15%. will that just be the question's become is that going to be for folks who manufacture here in the u.s.? is it going to be restricted to certain types of companies? is it for everybody? how do you see that piece of this playing out to the extent that there will be folks in the republican party who might say we have to balance our budgets and we have to be careful about some of these things and some of the tax giveaways that he's talked about, for example, no tax on tips and other types of things. do you think that there's going to be a debate about these issues? >> well, 15% was our goal last time. we couldn't get it there. my suggestion is as president trump has said, if the corporate tax is going to be lowered, it

should be lowered in a way that supports u.s. manufacturing and u.s. jobs as opposed to across the board. i think your comments about deficits and spending is an important comment. i think that the debt to gdp ratio is way too high. when we were in office it was 100% and we were going through the path of paying debt down on a faster rate than we were increasing gdp, and i think that spending is definitely going to be an issue. you see the backup in the ten-year treasury in the markets, and i think that it's something that needs to be looked at. >> steve, so many old sacred cows of the republican party seem to be at least being modified or changing. you just mentioned what i would consider to be industrial policy and that's having a different tax rate for things that are made here -- don't you think there's always unintended consequences? do we throw out comparative

advantage completely? don't you think that there are certain things that -- i mean, here you've got the government more or less with what democrats like to do. they're picking the winners and losers in the private economy which never, ever works, but suddenly it's okay for republicans to really be proposing proposing policy at almost central planning. >> we definitely don't want central planning and we definitely don't want the government picking winners and losers. what i would say is the trade agenda for a long period of time has not worked and the reason is, you know, even if you believe in free trade, we don't have free and fair. if you look at china our markets have been completely open to them on investment and trade, and their markets have been closed and we always said if we can open their markets, their middle class to u.s. companies that would be a terrific opportunity. so i think that the economic

policy just needs to be used to create a level playing field. >> steven, when you think about the tariff piece of all of this, though, there are questions about how inflationary that would be. there are also questions, by the way, about how more tax cuts could be inflationary. i know the effort is to offset some of that with, for example, lower gas prices and we also had folks like darren woods from exxon on, and we were talking about the market forces and how, you know, if you're in that business you don't want gas prices to go down too much, and so how -- how this balance is going to be achieved? >> well, look, you comment on energy policy, and i think energy policy is absolutely critical and it also ties to our national security and you're right. you look at crude, which you have on the screen at, like, $71. crude can go into $65, and it would still be profitable for a lot of businesses in the u.s. to

be able to do energy. you've got to remember, we also have ample amounts of lng. lng is a very clean alternative. we were in the process of reaching agreements to export u.s. lng. i think that needs to be explored. so i think energy prices coming down will help inflation. i think president trump clearly understands inflation. you've seen in the last administration, it was clearly one of the top problems. so he understands that. we didn't have inflation. you know, if he does tariffs, i think my recommendation that they would use them in a strategic way and make sure that we don't have inflation across the board. again, if you look at the china tariffs when the ambassador and i worked very closely he had lots of exemptions for things that were critical to u.s. businesses that they needed. >> steven, elon musk has called for, quote, at least $2 trillion in cuts to federal spending. you have probably -- i know,

spent an extraordinary amount of time looking at the books of our government. would you know how to begin to do that? is that a plausible thing to do, and if so, where would you go first? >> well, i definitely support the idea of cutting government spending and particularly looking at if there's ways in the government. if it's $2 trillion on an annual basis that's obviously a very big goal. i think $2 trillion over time is more realistic, but i also think you have to look at entitlements and entitlements is a big part of government spending. if you look at the social security trust fund, it's going to run out of money. it has to be addressed and i hope these are issues that president trump takes on in a second term because these are very important long-term issues for the country, and i think he's in a position now, particularly with, you know, this overwhelming result to take

on difficult issues, and i think that's got to be part of government spending. >> what should we expect, though, from the economy? i ask because if you have potential inflation and you're trying to offset at the same time maybe with gas and some of these other issues and if you're going to be firing and cutting huge swaths of the government, that's going to have another impact on jobs and so much, obviously, you probably heard elon musk at some point say there might be temporary hardship at one moment to get to what he thinks will be a lot better of a world on the other, and has investors are looking at this stock market which, of course, is ripping, there's a question mark, at least in my mind of what the world looks like two years from now. >> well, let me just say, president trump addressed many of the issues in the first term. he'll address many of them in the second term. he understands that keeping the economy strong are long-term

goal was always 3% gdp. i think that's still a realistic long-term goal for us in the economy. i think interest rates are coming down which is a good thing. the market expects that. the yield curve steepening, you know, that's not -- it's helpful in certain way, but i think definitely keeping a lid on ten-year treasurys is something that's important. i think we don't want to see ten-year treasurys over 4.5%. >> yeah. >> i'm not really concerned about inflation. you know, i am concerned about government spending and again, i think this needs to be adjusted over time. >> yeah. >> i think the combination of, you know, basically taking his 1.0 economic plan and turbo charging it is -- is something that we'll see, and i think you see the stock market, you know, with a huge rally yesterday as an endorsement of expectation of trump 2.0. >> steve, the best time to take

over as president is not following record runs in the stock market and a three years, four years with no recession. think about taking over after a pandemic you can immediately claim more job and you can immediately claim you cut the deficit because we're at $3 trillion and you're not spending at ridiculous exorbitant emergency funds and the financial crisis and the stock market was down 50% from its highs and you immediately get credit for coming in at that point and suddenly stocks go up. there's going to be a recession again at some point, and we haven't had one in quite a while. i think this is a very -- he doesn't have to run for reelection, president trump so that's one benefit, but i think that's going to be much more difficult to show huge gains than when you come in after some type of crisis or pandemic. >> well, let me first say and just comment on the pandemic and

the spending. i think president trump's reaction to the pandemic and the spending that we did and the economic plans we did with the fed and as you recall, i gave back a lot of that money to the government because we didn't need it, but i think had we not put in place those plans we would have had a worldwide depression and not recession. so i think president trump should get credit as you said, what was this rebound economy? i think the reason for inflation was because the biden administration clearly went on spending way too much money as the economy was coming out of that. now, i don't really see recession on the horizon in the next two years. i think you have an economy where you're going to have interest rates coming down, you're going to have pro-growth economic policies. on the margin, you're going to have trade policy which tries to help american businesses on a fair playing field. so i see this all as very

positive to the market. now the one part of the market that i am a bit concerned about and i think will have huge impacts, but we can clearly see an impact and slowdown on some of the ai spending that's going on. >> interesting. >> steven, before you run, two very quick things. you want to be the treasury secretary again or play a role in this administration? >> i mean, it was a great honor to serve president trump and be treasury secretary, and i'm willing to help in any way from the outside, but there are great candidates that he can choose from, and you know -- >> like who? >> i'm looking forward to a great economic team. >> the natural follow as joe would say, who? they talk about gary cohn, john paulson -- >> besson. >> i think there is a very long list of great candidates, some

you mentioned and many you haven't. i think it's an amazing job. it's an important job. >> say some of the names we didn't mention. >> whoever is picked that's treasury secretary i'm happy to help and give some advice, but i'm sure he'll put together a great economic team. let me just say the economic team, it's treasury, it's commerce, it's usdr, it's nec, there's a whole team that needs to work together. >> i think we are more likely to get him to say that he doesn't believe in a strong dollar than who he thinks will be the next treasury secretary. >> can you just say that now just for the hell of it that we need to weaken the dollar so i know that those words can actually come out of your -- you still won't? >> i wouldn't say we need to weaken the dollar. the issue on the dollar, quite frankly, is the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and people want to hold dollars because everything else is not safe. >> that makes us think we can do whatever we want.

that's a bad lesson that we can always issue as much debt as we want. >> i don't think it's a bad lesson to have the dollar as a reserve currency, but you're right. $36 trillion of debt has to be dealt with and the debt to gdp rash why has to be looked at carefully or we'll have market reactions. >> steve mnuchin, it's great to see you, sir. thank you for joining us this morning. >> good to see all of you. thank you. coming up, the ceo of lyft will joining us the company's latest results and strong guidance and we'll speak with this is going to be interesting, south dakota gop senator john thune. he seems to be sort of the lead -- him and cornyn, senator thune and senator cornyn, a couple of others in the mix to replace mitch mcconnell, the senate leader. if it was about your height this guy's got it, he's, like, 6'7"

or something like that. "squawk box" will be right back.

seconds away now from an initial jobless gains and we'll bring you that number. third quarter productivity, as well and futures in the green. the nasdaq up about 80 points and the s&p 500 up about 18 points and rick santelli is standing by at the cme this morning with those numbers.

rickster? >> yes. we are a little early, but just to set the table here, bank of england did cut rates. i'm sure you've been talking about that, 25 basis points to 4.75, we'll have to monitor. we all know that their budget is going to present another issue in the global economic picture, and that is a lot of debt. so there's going to be a lot of competition for those investor dollars. productivity and claims hitting the wires. this is the third quarter preliminary data point. non-farm productivity and our first look, 2.2%. that's a little light of expectations which were exactly the same as our rear-view mirror. 2.5% is what was looked for. 2.5% was the second quarterfinal coming in a bit light and this comes to the first quarter which was .4 and just to put a face on this, pre-covid, if you look at the final two quarters of 2019 there were 4.4 and 3.6%, kind of where we were at the end of last

year in the final two quarters. it certainly looks like it's slipping a bit. now let's move toward initial claims. 221,000. they continue to be well behaved and we can let the experts and the economists debate on how accurate these numbers are post-milton and post-helene and post right and this is probably getting more of a reality to these numbers and last year it was advised from 216 to 218 which makes this week a 3,000 jump. for a look at continuing claims yes, the 22nd consecutive week above 1.8 million getting close to 1.9 million and a little warmer than expected and a bit warmer than the slightly revised 1,853,000 in the rear-view mirror and how does this comp? this comps to -- pretty much this continues to comp toward november of 2021, and we can all debate that in the history of this number, maybe under

1.9 million isn't so large, but we are dealing with an entirely different set of data points here because like the errors we saw in polling for the election i would say that the data suffers from very similar issues. one has to scratch their head on how we sort data and how we process data and whether it's claims by states and whether it's the employment reports once a month. it gets harder and harder to find accuracy in these numbers and i think they've never been more important, so we have to continue to ponder those issues. interest rates, well, we're giving a very, very subtle amount back to yesterday's big jump and even with the bank of england cutting, we are still hovering near one-year high yields with the ten-year, which is the equivalent to our ten-year and when it comes to europe, yesterday we were dabbling with well over 200 basis points over a boon. ponder that when we consider how many more options we're going to need and the fact that i know

mr. mnuchin talked about lower interest rates and i think many of these experts need to be more clear on what part of the yield curve they're talking about. andrew, back to you. >> we'll see, steve liesman joins us now with more. what do you think? >> the unit labor cost which is -- it is down from the second quarter and it is quite a bit above consensus and i don't know the reason why and i don't have time to do that. the productivity number about 0.3 this year and it's still elevated above where it had been and we're in the middle of a modest productivity boom, guys, worth noting. i will say before you get too excited about it, most economists say when you're higher than average the better bet is that it will come back down at least on the short term and the productivity you want to measure on the long-term period and you heard former secretary mnuchin talk about this idea that a.i. looks like it will be a positive for the economy and probably too early for that and a big debate, guys about how the

work from home new phenomenon is affecting the productivity numbers. some people say it's boosting it by a lot. some people say it's a drag on the economy, but ultimately we've had higher than normal productivity by -- i don't know what you want to call it, half a point over the last year or so. again, we remain in the echo of the pandemic and some of the data could be affected by that, but that's good news for inflation over time if we do have lower -- or higher productivity with the question being why unit labor costs were quite a bit higher. we'll have to watch that, and of course, these new economic regimes that are coming, higher tariffs, perhaps. maybe they're just a negotiating tool. maybe it's policy, we don't know the answer to that and of course, a change in the tax regime that could be helpful for corporations. andrew? >> steve, we want to thank you for your analysis and we look forward to hearing from you when we'll be hearing from jay powell. thank you, sir. still to come this morning,

senate minority whip john thune joins us on the election results and the next race to succeed mitch mcconnell in the senate. "squawk box" will be rooity back. a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours.

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republicans regaining control of the senate on election night. our next guest is a top contender to replace majority leader -- minority leader, now it's majority if it were to be as the vote is scheduled for next week. joining us now on the gop priorities for next week and beyond, senator john thune of south dakota, currently the minority whip and always a pleasure to have you on, senator. good morning. >> thanks, joe. good morning. >> the one thing that we saw pretty consistently prior to tuesday on the betting markets and even polling was the likelihood that this was going to happen with the senate that the -- that you would retake the senate. so you knew that -- we knew that senator mcconnell was not going to be speaker anymore, so we've known that, but some of the other results, senator, were you surprised at all about the --

the breadth of the win for republicans and for president trump? former president trump? president-elect trump? >> yeah, right, joe. i think going into it if you looked at the polls, obviously, everybody expected a tight race and it was a very convincing, resounding win for president trump and literally up and down the ballot. we outperformed 2020 in 48 states and across all demographic groups and actually did better in 2300 countries or counties, i should say, around the country than we did four years ago. this was an example that the american people said enough is enough with the biden-harris agenda. they're ready for a different direction for the country and it's about open borders and high prices and that animated voters to get out and it gave president trump and republicans in congress and hopefully we get not only the senate, but the

house a mandate to do some really good things for the country with respect to the economy, energy and those are the issues that we'll be focused on and hopefully we'll be able to make some progress and some headway with the coalition, the much broader coalition that's been built out since this election. >> what's your working number on where you think you'll be? 53, 54? probably hopeful for more, but -- >> well, pennsylvania -- pennsylvania's going to come home, joe. i hope they will call that soon. they should and bob casey should concede there, but nevada, arizona is still open questions, and i think they're -- we would be at 53, obviously, with pennsylvania. 54 if nevada or arizona were to come home, but there are still votes to be counted there. we're certainly hopeful and our

candidates are, as well and they've had great campaigns and either way we'll have a substantial working majority in the senate and that will help us get president trump's team in place so they can implement an agenda and it's consistent on what he campaigned on and that's addressing the issues that i mentioned earlier. >> it is so nuanced and in the house we don't know what the end result will be although the betting markets now know that they're predictioning that the gop can hold the house, but it was hard to even say the gop held the house for the last two years. they did, but with the freedom caucus and everything else and the senate was crazy, too, because you had manchin and sinema. what will this enable republicans to do in having a president in the same party, but a president who certainly is not shy about what he wants to happen. he's almost a whip. he can almost be the whip of the senate and the house, i would think.

>> yeah. he is that. well, look, joe, i think if we can hold the house obviously we have a legislative vehicle available to us called budget reconciliation which the democrats used extensively when they had all three, but when you have unified control of government it gives you the chance to do some things and we have to extend the tax cuts which if we don't ends up being a $4 trillion tax increase and almost $2,000 for the average family in this country. i think energy policy, i think border policy and if you look at the economic agenda it's also a regulatory and the cost of regulations for $1.8 billion since biden and harris took office and lighter touch on regulations extending the tax policy and bonus appreciation and interest deductability and they get you the big growth in the economy and we need pro-growth policies on the economy and we've always got to be paying attention to what

happens with national security because we live in a very dangerous world. i think those issues will be front and center. if we have unified control of the government we are in a position to enact the agenda with accomplishing the goals. >> it might be too simplistic to liken the senate to the house of lords versus the commoners in the house. i don't expect anything like we saw with that -- that saga, you know, with the end result of speaker johnson, but what is going to happen in the senate for getting the next leader? do you know right now who's in the best position and are you whipping votes around? do you want it? >> of course. sure. >> where does it sit? do you have it? >> they'll run for re-election. >> do you have it? >> i feel good about where we are, joe, and it's a secret

battle election and it's a discerning, small constituence they will make that vote. it's never over until it's over and we'll hear next week and hear from the candidates for the job. it's a big job and it's one that's going to require go to the monopolitical courage and the ability to get things done and if we have unified control of the government and by the way, i serve in the house of raptives and we've got to be able to find a way to work together as a coalition with president trump to enact an agenda because we really have a two-year window because you never know what will happen in the next election in an even numbered year and we have a narrow window. >> is president-elect trump -- does he have a preference, do you know, senator, and will that come into play? >> i don't know that he does. i'm staying in regular contact with him and with his team, and

obviously, if he wants to he can exert a considerable amount of influence on that and my preference would be and it's in his best interest, and these secret ballot elections are best left to senators and he's got to work with all of us when it's all said and done and that will be his prerogative, as we know. >> how many others? >> we'll have that election next wednesday and we'll have a new leader. >> how many truly viable candidates are there besides you, senator? two or more? >> well, right now two, you never know. more can emerge and three of us have been running for this for some time now, so that's kind of the field and again, we'll see how it shakes out come next wednesday. >> another election. it's so exciting. we thought we were finished on. >> well. >> another one next week. >> yeah. >> i hope to see you again soon and who knows? we may have a different -- we

may be calling you something different or not, we'll see. >> who knows? >> call you something different. >> you always do. >> when we come back, a n'mi ierew wcat-ssntviith the ceo of lyft. you are watching skwoet"squawk and this is cnbc. e risk and the entire lifecycle of a mortgage. to help inform trade decisions, our pricing and reference data covers millions of instruments. in fixed income, our data can help re-imagine your workflow. in energy, our oil and natural gas data is used by global traders, while our energy transition data helps navigate the shift to a low carbon economy. in mortgages, our data covers the life of a loan, from origination to secondary markets. we can meet your data need wherever you are. whether it's pre-trade analytics,

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welcome back to "squawk box." shares of lyft, revenue jumping 30% year over year and forecasting fourth quarter gross bookings above analyst expectation and the company announced a round of autonomous partnerships to talk about that in just a moment. joining us first on cnbc is lyft ceo david risher andwe should mention the stock is up right about now 22 -- 23%, david. >> well, there we go. >> nice to see you. so don't just tell us what happened. i'd love to understand what you think why it happened. >> i think -- yeah, go ahead. sorry. >> no, you go. all right. i think why is customer obsession. i really do. it's that simple. i've been in this job about 18 months now and super consistent from day one. customer obsession drives customer growth and that's what happened. it's six quarters now that i've

been in. gosh, record rides, record riders, record driver hours and frequency up seven quarters time after time and i think it's that last thing, frequency and how often a person takes a ride that tells you something good is happening great ride. it's getting there on time. it's a great level of service and they're taking it again and again, and that's what's driving our growth. it's great to see. >> what's happening with pricing? there was a question about just the strength of the consumer. there was a question about whether there was a race to the bottom on pricing, which appears to have stopped between you and uber, especially in certain markets. how do you sort of look at the pricing issue right now? >> two things. the first is, we operate competitively. that's our deal, and so we want a rational marketplace and we like the fact that prices are strong. i think the more interesting question, at least from my perspective, is what have we done with surge pricing? surge pricing, which we call primetime, is -- i think you and

i talked about it last time, we opened up a can of whoop on it and surge pricing is down 40% from a year ago and nobody likes it. it's the worst. it's the thing that sort of drives people bananas. i think when you think about pricing, the base pricing is what it is, and it's competitive. i think what we're really trying to do is things like price lock and great service is get that surge pricing down as low as it can go. >> obviously, we are now just 24 hours, 48 hours after this election. when you look at different pockets of this country and the strength of the consumer, are there certain pockets where it's clear to you that there's significantly more strength and certain pockets that worry you? >> yeah, you know, not particularly. the trends that we tend to see more, actually, to go back to that surge pricing, for instance, is where we have been able to lower that the fastest, that's where demand has grown the fastest, and actually, our share grows faster. chicago is an example of that. boston is an example of that. but i don't think that's a macro

issue as much as a lyft issue. macro, the big issue tends to be back to work. halloween was a monster all across the country. if anything, i see more strength and pretty uniform rather than anything particularly concerning. >> by the way, how was election day? is that a big day or no? >> it's good. yeah, it's not a gigantic day, but obviously, the shift, you know, things -- people go different places. we actually offered 50% off anyone who wanted to go to the polls on lyft that day and it was super successful but that was the big news for us. >> let's talk about autonomy because that is both a huge opportunity going forward but also to many of the folks who are driving these folks, a potential threat. what are you doing? >> yeah. so, i think it's an opportunity, actually, for both. for both the operator, you know, whoever that might be, it might be an individual driver today, someone who just buys a car and then wants to put it on the platform, might be a fleet operator, and i think it's a huge opportunity for lyft.

these are cool products. i don't know if you've taken one or not. it's cool. it's safe. it's reliable. it's, you know, kind of novel now, and i think it will be for a long time. so, that's all good. and the more we can bring on to our platform over time, the better, because we can have a hybrid kind of view of the world where we've got some people driving, some cars driving themselves, and i think that's the world we're going to be living in for many, many years. but i think even for drivers. look, today, a driver has to use both his time and their car, and maybe tomorrow, they can buy the car, put it on the platform, on lyft, and not actually have to use their time, do something else. >> so, how are these autonomous partnerships going to work in the future, and how much do you worry about a tesla, for example, turning their entire fleet into these vehicles and not just doing it but creating their own version of lyft? >> yeah. so, let's look at one of the partnerships we just announced yesterday with mobileye. it was an industry leader in autonomous technology. their tech is in bmw and

volkswagen and in ford and honda all around the world and today, it's level two. it's the lane assist and smart cruise control. the day after tomorrow, at some point, it will be level four self-driving so the arrangement we have with them is as they develop that, every one of those cars can be lyft ready, so all those cars can be on the lyft platform and you know, you mentioned tesla. there's no reason a tesla owner wouldn't want exactly that same thing. they'd want to come where the demand is. hopefully we can come to an arrangement with them where teslas can be on the platform as well. >> david, i want to thank you. congratulate you again. stock up this morning, 22, 23%. not bad. >> thank you. really appreciate it. >> you bet. >> always good to catch up. talk to you soon. "squawk" coming right back after this.

we're with bridget, whose husband won't be home for months and whose daughter is due any day. we're with mike, who's leaving home to protect his family, and yours.

we're with all service-members and their families who need community, connection, and maybe a bit of magic. are you with them? learn more at uso.org today. donald trump's election win leading to a strengthening dollar. that helped push oil prices down yesterday. we did see a bit of a bounceback, but those oil prices are down once again this morning, $71.26 is the last price for wti. joining us right now in what a second trump presidency could mean for the energy markets is rebecca babbit from cibc private wealth. we know that incoming president trump has been very clear that he is going to remove some of the regulatory overhang, try and make it easier for these companies to drill for oil. i guess the question is, will the big oil companies actually commit capex to do it? >> that's the question of the

day, and i think the answer to that question is probably not. and the reason for that is essentially, the energy industry has learned time and time again that getting over your skis, producing a large amount of oil in a time when you have a high degree of uncertainty about future demand results in lower energy equity prices, and they all want to avoid that. they've worked very hard over the last four years to rein in their balance sheets, reduce leverage, increase dividends, and they are not going to make that same mistake twice. it doesn't mean there won't be some increase in production due to some regulatory easing. it just means it's not going to move the needle, and keep in mind, becky, we are already expecting u.s. crude production to grow by 4 to 500,000 barrels a day next year without those easing regulations, so it's not like this is an industry that isn't focused on growing, and kind of maximizing returns. it's just this regulation isn't necessarily going to drive this

massive increase in production growth that i think some are talking about. >> rebecca, we're almost out of time. >> it's obviously showing you as we get further out there, their profitability isn't at $70 a barrel here. it's closer to that $66 and break-evens are $55, so if we get a push lower across the curve, we are going to be bumping up against some of those break-evens, and i guarantee you companies are going to start to pull back before then, because they do not want to get in a situation that they have been in

where they're overlevered. mid-50s would be a dramatic decrease in u.s. production. >> rebecca, thank you very much for joining us today. we appreciate your time. >> thank you. okay, folks, that does it for us today. you do see the futures higher across the board. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures add to gains after an historic day for the dow, the dollar, financials, small caps, best stock reaction to a presidential election ever. we turn to the fed this afternoon and tons of double-digit earnings movers today. our road map begins with the fed on deck poised for another rate cut as stocks look to build on that rally. tesla gets a price hike following trump's win, how elon musk stands to cash in on the so-called trump trade. >>