where they're overlevered. mid-50s would be a dramatic decrease in u.s. production. >> rebecca, thank you very much for joining us today. we appreciate your time. >> thank you. okay, folks, that does it for us today. you do see the futures higher across the board. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures add to gains after an historic day for the dow, the dollar, financials, small caps, best stock reaction to a presidential election ever. we turn to the fed this afternoon and tons of double-digit earnings movers today. our road map begins with the fed on deck poised for another rate cut as stocks look to build on that rally. tesla gets a price hike following trump's win, how elon musk stands to cash in on the so-called trump trade. and we got a lot of earnings to hit this morning, of course.

qualcomm, arm, warner bros. discovery, zillow, novo. let's begin with this post-election rally as the street awaits today's fed decision. still a lot of notes about what happened in small caps and regional banks yesterday, solar, bitcoin, you name it. >> mix of -- combination of m&a coming back, speak to david about that, lower taxes, pro growth, and a -- a kind of a reevaluation of trump one versus what we saw with president biden. with the notion that, look, you're going to get better environment, and david, you know, better environment is a hard thing to determine because could there have been a better run than biden had? but we don't remember that. doesn't seem to matter. >> yeah. i mean, it was -- it's been a strong economy and a very strong stock market, of course, as our viewers well know, adding those kinds of gains from yesterday, of course, is now taking us into very high altitude performance,

so to speak, in terms of even historically for the s&p, jim. the fed, obviously, a lot on its plate to consider. i would assume they do not, in any way, consider what is yet to come in terms of policy from an incoming trump administration in terms of how they make their decisions. >> i think that's true. and there are areas that we don't talk about that much where there is real weakness. there is a trucking recession. autos have been a major problem in the economy. no affordable housing at the same time that mortgage rates are going up. carl, i want to use a metaphor. sometimes, it pays to have a metaphor that can explain to people what's really going on. i had a fabulous executive, judy mcreynolds on, she runs one of the biggest truckers and i was really struggling as a reporter, as a host, trying to think of something to say that would elucidate an answer that would say, listen, you should buy the

stock, and i tried to hit judy on a lot of different things, and judy's really coherent on a lot of things, but i gave up. i said, make up your own mind. yesterday, the stock was the biggest gainer in the s&p. it -- the stock went from basically $100 to $120, and it struck me as the metaphor was, look, things are going to get better because of the fed and because of president-elect trump, and so be careful what you don't like. it may turn out to be darn good. >> interesting. even solar names, even home builders, now in correction territory. >> i know. i mean, you've got two solar names that have been under pressure. you have next tracker, which my travel trust owns, and you have first solar and they're distinguished as being american solar companies so they might be in the sweet spot, versus enphase. >> solar edge gets downgraded to underperform at jpm. interesting note on that point about small caps and any regional bank name that would need to refinance.

the question was, at what point do yields start acting as a suppressant? and their argument is debt has unlimited appetite so far, steepening curve is helpful and to your latter point, anything that points to domestic producers favoring them helps domestic stock. >> sure. and you had keybanc get an infusion, and keybanc is where the reshoring is. this is an ohio bank. reshoring is occurring. comerica had been a bank that had been left behind as a problematic bank. boom. that's a terrific one. citizens bank. david, i think what we're seeing is a recognition that maybe we're going to have a revaluation of how much concentration you can have in the banking group and how much money you can return to shareholders. >> i think when it comes to -- yeah. the sense of deregulation, so to speak, in its broad form, particularly as it relates to m&a and/or specific industries.

i mean, if you remember, after the -- what i still call the mini banking crisis of march of '23, how many people were calling for, we need more consolidation, some of our regional banks are too vulnerable. everybody talks about candidate. they have seven banks. >> london has just a few banks. >> you may start to see that wave. that certainly was reflected, i think, in some of the moves yesterday amongst the regional banks, the idea of not just a less harsh regulatory environment but also the idea of consolidation, jim. and then, for the bigger banks yesterday, the moves were extraordinary. we talked about them. >> to the point where jpmorgan got a downgrade today. >> the m&a environment is going to be -- i mean, you know, there are dinners last night that i'm aware of where bankers are just talking about everybody needs to staff up, conceivably. >> dinners? >> well, i'm just saying, i know a couple of people who went to, you know -- >> i had a rice cake for dinner.

>> various banks have dinners all the time, investors and whatever. and the conversations you might imagine last night at many of these kinds of things was, we're going to have an m s&a wave coming. now, again, it doesn't mean fully across the board. certain industries may have different gating issues, but it's going to be a lot. >> look, take the tapestry cap reveal. that's a deal that was challenged aggressively, and they won. >> they won in court. >> but i don't think that president trump would pick someone who would say, you know what, we have to crack down on the affordable handbag concentration. >> well, that said, that is his voting base. >> well, that's his voting base, but there are bigger fish to fry. >> there may be. you know, again, i don't know. i don't know. like, how populist is the approach going to be? >> how about oil companies merging? >> pro business and the populist part of the approach. so much we don't know, carl, and certainly when it comes to tariffs, as everybody's trying to figure out the impact conceivably, it's just very

difficult to know. >> apple, i've got people who say this is really bad for apple. i've got people who say the president thinks that apple is a national treasure i've got people who say that apple is immune from this because apple is selling -- making there and selling there. >> carl went to vietnam, when was that? a while ago. >> it might have been '19. >> and it was in part because of the move then to get manufacturing out of china. but in the incoming administration's policy, isn't it to try to get manufacturing back here? so, why wouldn't you put tariffs on things from vietnam as well? >> it's abc, anywhere but china. there's nothing, malaysia, vietnam, they're all in play. >> great point. that's why some argue it's going to be targeted and that there is a place for tariffs. lot of -- we've got a piece up on cnbc.com today about retailers. cbs news has one on, cites auto zone where the ceo says, we will raise price before the tariffs.

we will get ready for the tariffs with price increases. >> i think what people don't realize -- thank you to steve, who happened to be on the amazing night that you chaired -- the auto parts business, the aftermarket, that stuff is made in china. the original might be made here or mexico, david, but you can't make -- you can't have the auto parts have no margin, so you make them in china. so, therefore, if you look at genuine parts, that stock has been under such pressure. >> and everything -- solar is only from here, fine. panels, it's going to be more expensive. >> and no subsidy. >> most things are more expensive. by the way, that may be a cost worth -- and the current administration has tried the same thing. it may be a cost worth bearing to enhance the ability of people to make more money. >> right. well, look, i think this pro growth attitude is so important that when you hear pro growth for semiconductors, and we're

going to speak with arm holdings with rene haas, you have to say, wow, they're pro growth. the current administration is writing big checks to try to get growth here. >> that benefit gop districts. >> i know. isn't that something? >> semiablist has a great piece where he basically asks why weren't the biden/harris able to get more mileage out of -- he just lists all the things that have gone well. >> everything won for them. >> my favorite chart is a look at searches for yellen versus mnuchin, which i think we built, and his argument is essentially that you did not have the most effective advocate foryour success. >> the pieces -- talks about a headline about "hamilton," but that mnuchin was such a great spokesperson, and yellen disappeared and cembalest has tremendous weight and i think what you say is that it didn't matter that housing -- housing, david, you couldn't tell a story. it had to be told by yellen, and there was no story by yellen,

and you start seeing, what really was the story with janet yellen? where did she go? >> why did buttigieg become the most vocal and most willing to go into pockets of media where they could convince a different part of the electorate? >> i think you get the impression that there was no coherent spokesperson. i like janet yellen very much. i don't think she's a great speaker. >> no-no. no. and buttigieg, obviously, is the best communicator. >> but they never explained housing. they never explained the supermarket. the supermarket -- >> they never explained inflation fully. they never took it head-on. >> they didn't make fries at mcdonald's. >> it's all should have, could have, would have at this point. we're moving on. >> i'm going to give you -- cembalest -- >> i don't know how he produces so much work. does he have a team? >> no, he is -- no. i go fishing with michael, and -- >> i'm aware. >> oh, god. >> i'm aware. >> you're like my wife.

>> am i? thank you so much for that. you love me dearly. are you going to buy me a bikini on temu? >> you should compare yourself to my first wife, whom i love dearly, but at least you come out better. no, i don't mean that. she watches the show. the current wife hasn't ever heard of the show. >> we've been together longer than you were together with her at this point. >> are you kidding me? and if we were to split up, i don't owe you -- well, never mind. the point of michael is that he is a force of ten, and let's just say it. jamie dimon's favorite strategist and a lot of times says things like in the energy business. you'll talk to mike wirth. he'll say, you know what, cembalest is a great energy analyst, and people say he's a great housing analyst, research analyst. he's just a delightful man. >> jim mentions chips. qualcomm is up sharply. different story for arm today. jim, what is the story going to be? >> well, qualcomm, i had -- christian orman did a great job

in cell phone but in auto and internet of things, you know, these are areas that we thought were in recession, but they sure weren't in recession for qualcomm. for arm, it's different. they were not able to diversify as well, and we've got to talk to rene haas about the possibility that qualcomm is an interesting fight. you're dealing with a company that's really playing from strength. i got to hand it to arman. i've been critical of him and i now think that he has more of a reason to go after intel. >> yeah. >> now that you have a president that may favor -- that may not think intel is as much of a national treasure as the current president. president-elect trump may not regard intel as a national treasure. >> i know you're not dismissing that possibility. now, a qualcomm acquisition of intel has got -- is fraught with difficulty. >> of course. >> question about the fabs, and one of the key questions, of course, you need approval in china. >> i know. >> so, forget, you know, forget the u.s.

china is also -- and so, how that would come about and what kind of tensions there are going to be and negotiations. i don't know. but it's a key question. >> well, i only -- >> if you can guarantee that, that's the likelihood, at least, that they really -- that they make real progress in talks. >> as you have brought up multiple times. >> yes. what? >> whatever you say. you bring that up multiple times. >> whatever it is i say? >> somewhat like how you acknowledge that i have repeated things. i only mention -- >> oh, you're insulting me right now. i didn't get that. >> ice cold. >> so, i bring up, what, china many times? >> no, you bring up what's called -- it has to do with how you divide wealth. when you get divorced, it's very difficult. in new jersey, it's very punitive. you're very happy that we work

here. if we were at englewood -- >> are you divorcing me? can i have the house in pennsylvania? how about the cows? can i get the cows? >> i'll trade you four mexican houses for one italy house and the irish house that's about to be bought. >> wow. >> castle. >> carl, i don't know what you get out of this. >> christiane arman suggested the intel. i don't suggest the intel. >> i'm saying it's always a possibility, although now you've turn on the intel, but is part of your thesis that it might get acquired or is it more based on now you're a gelsinger fan? >> i am a gelsinger fan through and through, and i only have three houses for sale in mexico. >> what changed with you and gelsinger? >> the peso has been shredded. >> by the way -- >> the stock hit a level where it doesn't go down on a bad quarter. i call that a bottom. now, david, i'm well aware that i have already said this. >> yes, occasionally, i'm going to say the same things, my dear friend, my former partner, now

that we're heading towards a divorce. >> community property, david, is a great thing. >> i own this. >> when we come back, tech ceos congratulating the president-elect on his victory. bezos, nadella, cook, benioff as they get ready to deal with the new administration. take a look at the premarket. so many movers. wolf, bros, lyft, donut, rl, tap, hershey, warner when we come back. ♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪

top tech executives lining up to graduate the president for winning the race to the white house. apple's tim cook among the leaders wishing him well when he returns to the oval office, adding they look forward to working with the trump administration. bezos, i think, now following trump on x for the first time as of this morning. >> i think there's a sense that they might do this to anyone.

president xi said some good things or made a good wishes to trump, so in terms of people who have already been on record not liking even the u.s. said something good. david, we know president trump -- president-elect trump does like cordiality extended to him. >> and flattery. >> that was the term i was going to use -- >> you went with cordiality. he enjoys that, and that can be an important component of his relationships. >> how much does it cost to send him something positive? >> nothing. >> exactly. >> bezos, obviously, controls and owns blue origin, which competes with elon musk's spacex to some extent. >> "washington post" -- >> that's important as well, you'd imagine. yeah. they wished him well. it will be interesting to see. you remember the original -- the first trump administration, when they had the ceo council briefly, then it kind of disbanded. >> that didn't work out. >> no. >> maybe they try to do it again. i thought that former secretary of treasury steve mnuchin handled himself very well in

terms of being able to say how reasonable things could be. there are a lot of people who think trump 2.0 will be a vendetta. i'm not sure about that. i think it's just going to be more hard core and ideological. >> we have a piece of sound from mnuchin this morning on "squawk." he was asked about some of the top priorities for this incoming white house. let's see if we have it. yeah, i surprised the booth with that. apologies to the booth. >> no, it's interesting because, you know, i speak to a lot of people who are convinced that this is it, that he's going to really come in with the real agenda that he had, and those people that he had the first go-round were all for show. i look at the people, and i just say, you know what, i dealt with them when i was -- i did a long show many years with kudlow called kudlow and cramer, and i'm seeing many of the guests who were on that show being

spokespeople, and they were far more reasonable than people realize. >> we're starting to get some names as the vetting takes place. treasury. there's bessant, susie wiles, chief of staff. there is a general sense that the president-elect would prefer business people and ceos in national security roles rather than, say, generals. >> wow. i think that's interesting, because there was a -- there was a kind of a -- the my generals talk that got a lot of people -- general kelly was so outspoken, i almost feel like the generals want to maintain a level of independence that trump doesn't like, whereas the corporate people are used to being subservient a little bit. >> well, he did -- rex tillerson had been the ceo of exxonmobil and became the secretary of state in the first part of his first administration. >> that didn't work so well either. >> you mentioned general kelly, who was the chief of staff, obviously was very strongly

opposed to his re-election, as was general milley as well and general mattis. >> they distinguish themselves as highly -- i would say sometimes the generals are more sycophantic. these guys weren't. >> it's commerce, trade, treasury. >> here's one i'm going to throw at him. is there anyone you think survives that could be actually a bridge? >> a repeat? >> yeah. >> from the current administration? >> yeah. i'm just asking. >> no. >> oh, okay. >> you mean the way in which harris said she would bring a gop'er on? >> not a chance. >> okay, well, i just put it out there. >> not a chance. >> we'll get cramer's -- >> are you still in the running, or are you done? >> i have no comment. >> especially after our split. we're negotiating the terms of our divorce. >> how convenient, the timing of your divorce, and the new administration. >> you're going to be able to actually sell your -- put your stock in a trust and not pay

taxes. it's going to work out. >> twice-divorced, it's not worth it. that may be the kiss of death. the second time, david, is not a charm. and the third is real bad. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and countdown to the opening bell as this rally rolls on. take another look at the premarket.

take a look at some s&p gainers. you'll see vistra in there. ralph lauren with some nice quarter action and guidance. we'll get to wbd as zaslav talks about the prospect of media consolidation. urinespening bell coming up in fo mut.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, let's get to a "mad dash." we got a minute before the opening bell. what do you got? >> this luxury industry has been challenged. >> yes. >> and apparel has been challenged. >> yes. >> but one that is not challenged is ralph lauren, and i think that's because levet has done such a good job and also working with ralph. these numbers are powerful. europe is, as you know, david, you can say i've said it before, i'll say it again, very strong. asian numbers are good, and what i really like about this, david, is you've got both brick and mortar and direct to consumer working well. we call it aspirational luxury

as opposed to the accessible luxury and affordable luxury that happened to doom the business, so i like this very much. i think it can go still higher. let's get the opening bell. at the big board, it's nonprofit building homes for heroes, marking veterans day, and at the nasdaq, finalists of the start-up competition. >> look at that. i always love it when business does something to make it so other people get involved. especially younger people. we don't see enough of them. >> one of the jpm notes asks, would you rather, in a trump administration, be in software or chips? they point out best performing sector under trump 1.0, tech. >> enterprise software was preferred under president-elect trump in part because it doesn't require a huge infrastructure, and enterprise software is the domain of very smart people. i think that everything, look at

servicenow, has been extraordinary. the run in salesforce.com, very good. but you know, right at the end of secretary mnuchin's talk, he said there could be some issues with a.i. i didn't quite understand that. i'm going to call him later because i think a.i. is uniquely the correct theory and thesis for what president-elect trump could offer to us. >> david, there's also been some videos, i think, circulating around a.i. and mark andreasen and whether or not we're hitting some walls here and there. >> yes, there was this conversation, and i hadn't watched all of it, and so the context, you know, is a bit more difficult, and i actually have been meaning to look into it more, but the po, carl, where as questioning whether the increases in functionality and power are going to be the equivalent that they have been in the past from each new iteration, for example, of chatgpt. they seem to be arguing that, in fact, it is slowing dramatically, even with more cpus added, more chips, that the

progress is not nearly as great between 4.0 and 4.5, for example, or what will be for chatgpt. >> jim doesn't want to -- >> again, you know, this has been making the rounds. i'm fairly certain it is authentic. that said, i -- >> it's a parlor game. >> i want to find out more. >> a parlor game. and let me give you the other side. jensen huang is the ceo of nvidia. what he'll say to you is right now, it's celeboperating at abo fifth grade level and it's eventually going to be through college and then through graduate school, and that's what these iterations are. i think if we had mark zuckerberg here, which is highly unlikely, but believe me, i'll do my best, i think he would say, look at meta a.i., which is going to be the number one, not chatgpt. it is so suffused with video, carl, so exciting. a lot of times i find myself with time to kill, i put things into meta a.i. to see how much

smarter it is than three weeks ago. as much as i like and respect the work of mark andreasen, you should be using what mark zuckerberg has done with the latest and greatest gpus. amazon feels the same way. >> good old warner bros. discovery. >> let me get that out. >> it has 40-plus billion in debt. its leverage ratio, now, by the way, down to 4.9. >> how about they bought some debt back? >> i think $900 million during the quarter. but the stock is up not because of the performance of the company, frankly, during the quarter. distribution revenues were down 7%. that's our business, linear cable business, why? well, a 9% decrease in domestic linear pay tv subscribers, and you had adjusted ebitda overall down 11%. >> 7.2% versus 6.1%. >> that said, direct to consumer is making money, and they are adding -- they are adding subscribers as well. there's what i just discussed on

that, but direct to consumer, they added, the largest addition, by the way, they've ever had. 110.5 million at the end of the third quarter, up 7.2 million versus the second quarter. not necessarily a percentage-wise growth but certainly overall numbers. and even though they have not increased their target for what had been a billion dollars in ebitda for direct to consumer in 2025, if you go up the current run rate, it would seem clear they are potentially going to exceed that. stock is up, though, i think, because of what the cfo said on the call, which is the following. "we continue to focus on executing our strategy and as part of this, are examining every angle and possible path." take a listen. >> we continue to focus on executing our strategy and as part of this, examining every angle and possible path to realize the longer term value creation opportunity we see

ahead for warner bros. discovery. >> that, obviously, means they're considering doing things that our parent company is also considering doing, namely, is there a way to spin off the cable network? warner bros. discovery, it's a bit more difficult because they contribute so much of the overall cash flow as the company. by the way, free cash flow is 600 million bucks. but a more difficult construct, perhaps, but everybody's thinking about everything, and as we said yesterday, with an incoming administration that is most likely going to be looking more favorably on the ability to do deals, you can imagine a lot of scenarios. there's so much pent-up demand, so much need for consolidation in so many of these areas where the companies are struggling, that everything has got to be on the table. for them, that's got the stock up. what will it look like? we'll see if anything comes to bear. they've been thinking about trying to do things for a long time, jim. >> how about that sports combination they're working on? >> venue? i don't think that's going to see the light of day.

you know, venue included warner bros. discovery, but they're losing the nba, most likely. obviously, there are litigating with the nba. so, i just -- you know, they're a part of it. fox is. the nfl season is not -- is going to be over. disney, which is the other part of venue, is going to be launching its streaming -- full streaming espn this summer. i think that's going to have a hard time for a couple of those reasons, seeing the light of day. i don't know, but i have had conversations around venue in that way. the fubo litigation worked. it worked. knocked it off, you know, the injunction. >> the stock is making a comeback. >> what stock is that, warner bros. discovery? >> which is interesting, of course, because you're dealing with a debt load that people would say could be a problem with higher rates. but no. zaslav solved the debt load, and david, what do you think about global streaming? >> that's the key.

everything is international. next week, you'll see my interview that i taped with john malone, just to give a bit of a tease. as you might imagine, he talks about warner bros. discovery, which has been a horrible performer. >> well -- >> horrible. >> well, okay. >> disastrous. >> disastrous? >> disastrous. you want to take a look at a long-term chart since they closed the warner deal? >> yes. >> disastrous. >> i think there's real acceleration and profitability here. >> give me that chart, will you please? my partner here -- >> well, that was -- >> five years, down 70%. what do you call that, partner? >> suboptimal. >> thank you. >> but david, i just think that every quarter is going to be more subs, more profit, more revenue. >> international is the key for them. >> thank you, right. >> roll out direct to consumer internationally and as you might imagine, malone has thoughts on that. >> why don't we have that interview yet? last time i got to malone, there were so many gems that changed how you felt about stocks. >> we roll it out on investor day for liberty, so i twin it

with an interview with greg, with chris winfrey from charter, and then we'll hear from malone. it will be next wednesday. >> people need to know that they watch -- last interview you did with him, as, by the way, your paypal interview. >> you love that paypal interview. >> i like it when i see an interview and the stock goes up 20. that's something i like. >> hershey's not down, guys, but michelle buck on the call did talk about the impact of glp-1. >> do we have tape? >> we have it written down, and i can read it to you. "mild year on year impact, consistent with what i think we've shared before, in line with what we'd expect, more of a gradual impact. we've continued to see multiple sources of data validating consumers on those drugs aren't eating disproportionately less of our category." she goes on to say, "i know there's mixed data, and again, we've seen a lot of that." so, not a big surprise, but they're monitoring, carl, how

it's evolving. >> mondelez too. >> north america confectionery, this is organic mix, i think, for hershey, was down two. salty snacks down 17. >> it's funny because there's this debate about whether salty snacks get hurt more than alcohol or not, and people feel that they -- that alcohol has been really crushed by these. the alcohol companies do not want to admit that, i think, but i do think that salty, you would say, if you listen to ramon, who runs the biggest chip company in the world, hasn't seen it. hasn't seen it at all, nor has -- and i think this is a really good one -- mark smucker. remember the acquisition of hostess? >> i do. >> not a factor. glps, not a factor with hostess, with twinkies, ho-hos, not a factor. >> are you surprised at that, jim? >> i was yeah. >> is it because there are still, quite frankly, very few

people on these drugs overall as a percent of the population? >> also not a lot of overlap between the people who go buy a ho-ho at a wawa and the people taking glps. >> because they're not selling them on the upper east side? >> yes, david's got a hammer lock on things, but when you think about the -- i was very, very strong about the idea of hostess acquisition may not have been that shrewd, but carl, smucker has shown me, without a doubt, that that's wrong. just wrong. >> keep our eye on things related to health. moderna is a good example. after the comments yesterday, rfk jr. gave to msnbc, where he said, i'm not taking anyone's vaccines away, we did have bancel on "squawk" today. nice beat on q3 sales, jim, but the full-year guide's unchanged. >> yeah, look, i still believe that bancel did himself a huge disservice by talking about multiple vaccines, different kinds of cancer and personalized

vaccines, and that hasn't played out. it's funny. the people who are up in arms about pfizer, well, talk about a company that made a lot of money and really didn't do anything about it. that's moderna. >> well, yeah. i mean, by the way, we're talking glp-1s, and we didn't even mention novo. >> how much down today? >> not doing that much. >> how about eli lilly, david? speaking of crypt walking. >> say again? >> eli lilly. >> lilly was down sharply yesterday. >> lilly right now has lost the mojo. that's the technical term. no mojo, carl. >> it's in a bear market. yeah. >> gentyes, it's one of the lon bears in an amazing bull market, but they have to come out and re -- they have to reaffirm what they said, and they need a new use to be able to demonstrate why it should be paid for by the health maintenance. i'm nominating that one as the worst call of the year, the lilly call. the single worst conference

call. david ricks. >> largest market cap company in europe, i believe. >> i told you europe's coming back. >> every day. >> glp-1s are helping that. high 5%. their diabetes and obesity care and danish croner was up 25%, mainly driven by glp-1, sales growth of 25% again. obesity care growing by 44% as well. >> yeah. >> for novo. and then the foundation -- so many interesting parts of this story because the foundation owns so much of it. they're funding the largest super computer in the world. i don't know if you guys have seen that. >> jensen huang spent a lot of time in denmark, lot of time being 18 hours. >> that's a lot for jensen. he's a busy man, got a lot of podcasts to do. >> all i can tell you is that rene haas has a podcast, and they -- >> jensen was his first guest. >> that's when jensen revealed that he was not an actor. >> couple things in mobility, jim. b of a takes tesla to $350. that's now ten times ev to sales prior eight and then you got lyft up 24% premarket.

>> david richard did a great -- he's -- he looked at the commute and decides that he can play a role and the strategy worked, certainly better than uber last quarter. people didn't really care for. and i think that's important to talk about, because richard's good. i like him at this point. on tesla, there was an element to that, which was president trump will be more in favor of full self-driving. i had been saying i'm waiting for president-elect trump to say, you know what, the interstate highway system is now open to full self-driving. you guys handle the off-ramps, but interstate 80, 90, whatever, they're all on board. and i think he could wave a magic wand. i don't think you're going to get much opposition. >> no pullback in tesla shares after that enormous rally yesterday. >> there shouldn't be, because they have the ear of the president. the company is run by a man who's definitely got the ear of the president. >> without a doubt. >> do you think jensen huang -- who's spending less time sleeping, jensen huang or elon

musk? >> elon does sleep. i mean, not enormously, but he -- i remember when we did talk, he'd indicated that it didn't work not to sleep, so he gets five hours, six hours. >> you didn't mention the new house where he's got some family members. >> i haven't mentioned the new -- by the way, yesterday, guys, he tweeted a compilation that included a bunch of things from our interview back in may of '23, and obviously, the thing he did with andrew where he used the f-bomb a number of times. >> yeah. i'm against that. >> but then, he ended it -- it ends with he and i talking about work from home and how deleterious, frankly, both of us think it is. he shared that. it was interesting. and of course, like everything musk does, i think it's gotten 45 million -- >> another one that got downgraded is you can't put a glove -- you cannot lay a glove on palantir. downgraded and people don't care. the reason why, just so we

understand this, is they own the pentagon procurement process, and they're winning, winning, winning, and i've gotten to know the work of some of the things they're doing about renaissance and changing the defense department, and there's a sizable group in the pentagon who just want to give it to palantir. >> there's some notable downgrades today, there's palantir, solar edge, which we mentioned, bernstein takes ford down, and baird takes jpmorgan down, which is in the red today. >> look at jpmorgan, what they're saying, basically, is you're now at a peak level, and it's hard to -- peak multiple, peak earnings, 2.5 times tangible book, $14 for 2026 number. >> the stock's up 41% for the year. goldman-sachs, by the way, is up 52.5%. >> at one point yesterday, it was worth 500 dow points. goldman alone. >> that index is so poorly

calculated. i will say that this is a group -- before you say, you know what, i've had it with this group, remember that jpmorgan, even after the run it has had, is up 13 times next year's earnings. that is ridiculous. who would downgrade something that cheap? i wouldn't. >> all right. fair point. >> 13 times? >> the financials, broadly speaking, are down. >> goldman-sachs -- would you agree that goldman-sachs is a premium company? >> yes, it is. >> then why is it selling at 16 times earnings? >> i don't know. that seems right to me. >> why? >> every so often, we have a financial crisis. >> but goldman came out better in -- >> they did, they did. >> i just think, carl, the only reason i said this is because i'm still trying to find stocks i can recommend and i'm not backing away from financials at all. >> there's a bunch of double-digit earnings movers. i know you could talk bros. >> i had them on. >> you could probably do wolf. >> i had them on. e.l.f. was just remarkable.

although, u.s. was 16%. they were opehoping for 20%. dutch bros is up, up, up, because this new ceo, and i can't wait to speak to her tomorrow, she is no longer, i'm going to build them and they will come. she's being targeted. this is good. i'm not going to insult brian niccol by saying this is the second coming of starbucks. there's room for everybody. one of the things that's working for dutch bros is a drink called the annihilator. i had one on friday so i could be with my daughter in oregon. if you have an annihilator, you don't need sleep for days. it's a 50-hour energy. >> dutch bros having an incredible move. >> i'm going to take you to one and we are going to have drinks that will knock your socks off. >> really? i can't wait. >> was that facetious? >> zillow, we have to mention, up 22%. >> excellent. with housing not doing that well. >> i know. zillow, 17% total revenue growth. >> how about wolf? >> i mean, that's quite a move

there and the stock has had very strong performance over the last 12 months. i've got it. >> symbol wolf? >> that one, i don't know. >> it will take 20 minutes. i'll be there in 30. >> say again? >> winston. >> oh, i love that line. >> fabulous movie. >> i'll be there -- >> as we go to break, watch bonds. fed meeting today, by the way, we're going to see how the fed chair responds to questions about the new administration and fiscal spending. claims were pretty good, 221, and productivity unit labor cost, not bad. the ten-year backing off to 4.37%. back in a minute.

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35 cents -- 30 cents, revenue in line. they raise the gouide, jim. >> kevin shared with me this was going to be the big turn, and i guess it's happening faster than he thought. >> keep an eye on some of these apparel names, regarding retail and potential tariffs. >> very exciting group. >> nasdaq, after hitting 19-k yesterday for the first time, adding another 140 points. stock trading with jim is next. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now

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time for jim and "stop trading. " >> key bank today, they could have said the same thing about costco. i mentioned this only because we were talking about jpmorgan and there could have been a message that the president biden left on the floor. they never were willing to embrace any corporation, and walmart and costco really did keep inflation down. the goal was to get oil prices down to 2019. but that would have required the president to acknowledge that both walmart and costco were superior operators who meant to help people. but they were so out of touch

with corporations and so willing to be able to say -- unwilling to say here's a model, use the walmart model. i regard it frankly as ill-informed or shameful, i don't know. >> interesting. he certainly in autos went to car plants and did the union thing. >> these are non-union and costco -- >> they made a very significant misjudgment, i think, in terms of thinking how unions and the democratic party were aligned. >> their antipathy towards corporations, we'll look back and say they had the same populist view of the 1890s of a group that lost this country. they became irrelevant and the populist party doesn't exist. i really feel like -- i would try to talk to them about companies. they did not like them.

they didn't like companies, and they could have gone to a costco and said, this is what i like. this is what americans should do. they didn't like -- they didn't know the cfo for more than 30 years, they were tone deaf. >> almost the opposite of the round tables we got from the first trump white house. >> exactly. they needed to say walmart is the largest supermarket in the world, we should embrace their pricing. but that would have meant something positive about a company. >> jim, you're going to stick around. coming up, we'll get to the ceos of arm and zillow. both shares on the rise today. the s&p up 29 points. don't go away.

good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." jim cramer is sticking around here at the new york stock exchange. jim has a big interview coming up in a few moments with arm holdings ceo. first on cnbc on the back of the company's latest earnings and outlook. shares of the chip designer reversing earlier losses. we'll get more details on what arm is seeing on ai demand in a few moments. check here on the markets after yesterday's giant rally. the celebration of president donald trump and the red sweep. the s&p is up of half a percent. the nasdaq, well, not officially, thank you forgiving me the look. looking, appearing that way. >> yes. >> the market continues to celebration, up 1% on the nasdaq, dow up 53 points. 30 minutes here into the trading session, here are some other big movers we are watching. another chipmaker, qualcomm rallying on rosy guidance, seeing stronger than expected

demand in markets like autos and handsets. and moderna, shares still a big underperformer on the year. and check out the move in dutch brothers, almost up 40%, the coffee chain seeing revenue jumple 30% from a year ago. don't see that a lot. that's one of your favorites, too? >> one of the best stories out there. one of the best. >> i wasplaying with a one-year bros versus starbucks. >> ugly. >> i'm going to bring everybody a drink and you'll join me. >> what's in that? >> it has more coaffeine than anything i've ever had. it has the highest octane, and they knew me coming back the second time, old bald guy. >> ahead of the fed day and fed

decision, let's go over to rick santelli. >> good morning. indeed, these are september, the last month of the third quarter. we all know that inventory is moving up, but this report's a little different. first of all, let's look at the sales side. what uses up the inventories. comes in much stronger, up 0.3, and last month's minus a tenth of a percent moves up 0.2. so july, august, september, it's up 1.1 in july, now 0.2 in august and 0.3 in september. the inventory side. the mid-month read was down 0.1. it's now down 0.2. so we have up 0.2, down 0.2. so we're washing out the inventories, don't look for any big ads to any revisions to third quarter gdp. it's very interesting to see that the consumption numbers

were hot, the sales numbers were hot, but the inventory channel seems to be a little on the light side. interest rates, well, they're given a little back from yesterday, down half a basis points on twos and tens. sarah, back to you. >> seeing the dollar give back some too. so fed has its big decision today. not a lot of mystery in what it's going to do, market is almost 100% priced for a 25 basis point cut. the bigger question is what he's going to say about future cuts, and how much might be necessary given the economy has done pretty well. as rick said, consumer spending has been strong, at least if you look inside the gdp. here's the chart that they have basically tattooed on their arms right now, which is the pce price index change. this is what they're targeting and their preferred measure of it. look how much progress they have made. down to 2.1% with the last reading on the headline. core, if you strip out food and

energy, a little bit firmer, back up to 2.7-ish. but this will allow them to cut today and to say that they will continue to cut. it gives them a lot of breathing room to preserve the recovery, because they've made so much progress on inflation. expect a lot of questions, of course, about president-elect trump and what he might do on tariffs and whether that's going to be inflationary, what he might do on taxes and whether that's bad for the deficit. don't expect powell to prejudge any policy from an incoming administration. however, we'll be watching that inflation rate as, you know, president trump comes to power with probably control of congress to see what he'll do. by the way, he doesn't even need congress on the tariff front. as far as inflation, if it's done so well in terms of progress, some people are wondering okay about the election. inflation was top of mind when it comes to issues for americans dealing with the economy.

i traded out this chart of ground beef prices last night. it really tells the story, which is even if they have stopped going up sharply, they are up sharply. this is just from 2018, we've seen a 60% rise in prices on ground beef. and i think this is part of the story of the election and how people were feeling and how they were sort of reminiscing for days where they didn't pay as much from basic -- >> is there a way to get ground beef down? >> it's a hurting food issue. >> it's across the board. >> if you look at what costco has been able to do with chicken, they decided to build their own. they didn't like the pricing structure. 2 million chickens a week. you had to let the process play out and let the walmarts and costcos take control instead of not standing up to the ranchers and farmers. >> that's part of -- that's certainly part of it. there are other input costs that have been rising.

>> look, there's no doubt about it that prices went up, i'm just saying that you can push back and think about -- like say at tyson. tyson did not distingish itself during this period. >> it should be doing better. >> it does have a management issue. >> are we going back is a good question? we're in a period where the economy is in really good shape. >> i know. >> people are earning a little bit more than inflation, so that's good news. so as long as we have a strong economy, it -- we shouldn't have deflation or disflation. >> the expectation for people that voted for trump is that he's going the get prices down. >> my cows are killing me. i have to go to -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> i will say one thing, and that is, lower corporate tax rates, and i floated this before. lower corporate tax rates do give companies, like kroger and

albertson's, a little more room on margin to invest in price. i said it to jason fuhrman, he said no, it does in the buy-back. but if you look at the -- when trump cut taxes, kroger did a big press conference in cincinnati announcing they're going to invest that back into wages. that was the key political issue at that time. i wonder if he can use this leverage on lower corporate prices to invest in price and eat a little bit of the margin because they'll do better on corporate taxes. >> you can argue to see why they didn't, to see why pricing was what it was. it's not clear to me. the last thing that biden seems to understand is that the supermarket prices went up big. you know what we should do? >> talk about ai? >> we should bring in arm holdings. what do you think?

>> go for it. >> shares reversing some earlier stupid losses after beating the estimates. david is laughing at me, rememrenee. we know that the analyst seem to have some sort of an mist toward you. you raised everything you said would happen, and what they're keying on, i don't know, this 1% of your business, i don't know. can we just talk about how you yo got ubiquity? everybody know it is they don't have you, they don't have a product? >> thank you for having me this morning. this is now a year since we have gone public, and we're so happy that a lot of the strategies that we talked about putting in place, we went public about diversifying our strategies, compute subsystems. they're all coming to fruition. so a lot of things that we talked about a year or plus ago when we were doing the road show

have played out. so super happy quarter, high end of the guidance. we kept guidance for the year, which is about mid 20s, 22, 25%. we were up about that amount last year, and we're projecting to be up about that amount next year. so what we're seeing is a lot of things we talked about coming into play. >> well, we did get analysts sayingyou did not raise, and that it was a beat, but you kept guidance pretty much the same. at the same time, i thought the guidance was so remarkable, that there was no need to raise it. you came through. so tell me what the difference is between the analyst who think you should have raised and what happens here. >> well, in terms of the analyst who would like us to raise every sickl single quarter, we are focused on making commitments, executing strategies, and most importantly, keeping our commitments. we have beat the guidance every single time we have had these phone calls, and that's what we're trying to do.

we're not trying to be overly ahead of our skis in terms of raising expectations to levels we don't think that we can meet. we want to meet and beat expectations, essentially how we operated this quarter. >> renee, you were one of the few companies that did well in china. but you also seem to be the go-to do take the grace blackwell, the most advanced chips or platform that nvidia has. how important are you, when you get an nvidia blackwell, would i rip it up and see a lot of arm? >> you would, and what's going on inside the data center, we have been talking about the data center at arm for many years. we had some big announcements over the last quarter, where microsoft announced general availability for azure. google did the same for gcp. those are about 60% improvement in terms of performance and power over x-86. and that's what we call general

purpose compute. when you talk about grace blackwell, that's going into ai clusters for training and inference, another level of computation in the data center, if you will. and grace uses arm. so every time nvidia ships to grace blackwell, that's a good thing forearm. more importantly, jim, it's a great thing for the arm ecosystem. what that means is the same set of software that's being used to run these general compute data centers are being used for these ai data centers. it makes it very easy for operators to have a consistent software base, which makes it easy to migrate forearm, which is great. so that's been a tailwind that's started with everything going on with ai and everything that nvidia is doing. >> you know, also there's a lot of misunderstanding between qualcomm. people say qualcomm is big, arm is small. but when i read through this, i understand you can't go further -- that's not your job,

but i have to think that if qualcomm doesn't come to the table, that most recent move that you made, exercising what is basically a drop dead for qualcomm, qualcomm would be pulled from a lot of different venues. am i right? >> i can say this, it's an ongoing litigation, so there's not a whole lot i can say about it, but the facts are pretty simple. every contract that we have has an assignment clause that says if a company acquires another company, you have to get arm's consent. we've done that 130 times in our history. we've granted concept 130 times. in this case, consent was not granted and has never been granted. so as a result, we have decided to send a notification to qualcomm that they are in breach of their license, because consent was not granted. that's really it. the base principle of this, jim, is around fairness. we have contracts, as i said, that have the standard language. it's been adhered to every

single time. in fact, qualcomm has adhered to it three separate times. so in a sense of fairness in the industry, we really felt we had no choice than -- other than to really enact our rights and file a claim. so that's about all i can say about it. >> i know it's not in court yet, but can you give us a timeline when you think it will be resolved and/or how? >> hi, david. the timeline right now is the trial starts december 16th, and that's what we're focused on. we feel very good about our case, as i stated earlier. >> all right. so to those who might assume there's a higher level of competition, and perhaps enmity between your company and qualcomm, what would you say? >> i don't know it's really about enmity or competition, as i mentioned earlier, it's basic. assignment -- any time an assignment requires concept and

it's standard practice that it's happened and it's always happened. so this case, in my mind, is pretty straightforward. >> renee, to take you into the current moment, obviously a lot of questions still involving the incoming trump administration, particularly the policy as it regards tariffs. how are you thinking about that? jim mentioned an important business that you have in china, for example. your products used around the world. you know, how are you thinking about potential impacts? i know it's very difficult to know, given we don't know what the policies will be, but we assume that will be a lot of tariffs. >> i don't know is the short answer, david. i don't think any of us knows, right? this has just happened in the last 48 hours. if i draw one positive from tuesday night is -- and it was funny, we were talking about internally with our earnings yesterday and the discussion we had this morning, would we be talking about all kinds of different matters such as recounts and disputes, et cetera, et cetera? the fact that we have some

clarity 48 hours after tuesday i think is a really good thing, not only for our business, but the country. so i think we'll see what the next number of weeks and months say relative to what you just asked about. >> i'm going to leave on a message of hope, because i think at the end of the conference call, there was a question talking about how the ai pc is dead on arrival. all these different smart pcs haven't worked. you said it's way too soon -- premature to let's say right the obituary for these. >> oh, 100%. you know, the ai pcs that were introduced last june were the next wave of machines, and we're excited about the potential there. we've already seen the system flip over 100% to arm. we think the same in terms of getting to very large numbers with arm on pcs can happen, as well. so it's a little too early to

read on these first sets of units. the windows ecosystem is a little different. one of them is that there's a lot of different skews and models, different price points, et cetera, et cetera, and i think once those start to get filled out by not only multiple units from oems but multiple chip vendors, i think you'll see an acceleration of windows on arm. so we're quite positive about it. if you look at the hallmarks at what have made those windows pcs and arm break, it's the battery life, 20 hours of operating a product. so we're optimistic going forward on this. >> thank you so much. i'm very pessimistic about the raiders, i'm very sorry. but renee haas, ceo of arm holders. >> thank you. i have to share your opinion, unfortunately. >> there you go. there's a guy who understands, a realist. >> when they're hot, they're hot, jim. >> the stock was down badly, and i said, this is just wrong.

this is the second time it happened. and you have to buy this stock on weakness, because renee is doing a fabulous job. >> how about tonight? >> i am looking for power companies to do the same thing, as we saw with this. they don't stop. jason robins, when is florida going to come around, how about texas, california, and how about the parlays we lost badly this weekend? and stephen yalof, tanger is the way people go to get bargains. why didn't the current president understand there were places that had bargains, and he should have saluted them. but that's because they were tone deaf about the american consumer. >> we'll hear from him in less than an hour. >> excellent. thank you. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. take a look at the road map for the rest of the hour. markets are expecting another rate cut later today after the b.o.e. cuts. we'll get the outlook on stocks

and the odds oh of a recession. but playerses of warner brothers are up 16%, more about what they said on the call. and check out the move on zillow. shares soaring on the back of its latest report. the ceo joins us for his outlook on the housing market, the next president and more. "squawk on the street" will be right back.

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warner brothers discovery having a rare strong day, as the stock price has not been beneficial this year or the last five years. certainly since the time of its merger with warner brothers. of course, we discussed it for a very long period of time, and in great detail. not because of earnings. they were as expected in some way, weakness in the linear cable networks. there you had distribution revenues, namely the deals you sign with cable companies. as subscriber counts come down, what you get paid comes down. that's down 7%. 9% decrease in domestic linear paid tv subscribers, and a decrease of 11%. by the way, the movie studio is a part of that, but that's cyclical, ups and downs as you might expect. these numbers were more or less in line. what was a brought spot was

direct-to-consumer, namely the max server adding 7.2 million subscribers globally. international is a real focus for the company in terms of where it believes the potential growth is. revenues were up 9%, and you can see the adjusted number there, almost $300 million. if you annualize that, they are on pace to exceed $1 billion in adjusted ebtida. so certainly that a bright spot. be you the reason the stock is reacting the way it is is because of the prospect of consolidation. the cfo on the call talking about a focus on executing the strategy, but also examining every angle and possible path to realize longer term value. what does that mean? well, as you might expect, of course, perhaps any number of different potential deals. spinoff of the cable networks, mergers, acquisitions, and so much of that may now be a lot

more realistic to consider, given the incoming administration. the ceo had some thoughts on that. >> we have an upcoming new administration, and, you know, it's too early to tell, but it may offer a pace of change and an opportunity for consolidation that maybe quite different that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that's needed. >> scale is certainly what is potentially needed. the thought is, as, you know, as you well know, sarah and carl, we're a part of this. in fact, we may very well be a part of it if the spinoff of the cable networks of our parent company moves forward, perhaps as more likely than not, as well. very difficult times. >> i was going to ask how this announcement relates to that, which we heard last week. >> last week. >> it's vogue now to float spinoff of cable assets. >> it is. bankers will tell you spinoffs

perform well when they look at the numbers. i think when it comes to the spinoff of nbc universals cable networks, the expectation is that the roberts family will continue to have significant amount of voting control in that entity and wants to build it, and therefore, perhaps by first mover advantage, you are free to do things as a result of no longer being a part of the whole. maybe you merge with warner brothers discoveries cable networks and enhance your competitive position in doing so. certainly realize certain synergies in a continued declining environment. >> isn't it hard to separate digital and cable assets? >> meaning what? >> isn't that what comcast was talking about doing, if they spin off the cable company? >> i think we would have our own digital strategy. you would have to develop your own digital strategy at the cable company. yeah. there's a lot of difficulty,

which is why it's been studied but doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. but it is, perhaps more likely than not. >> barclay's with a good look at why joint ventures might get more attention, too. >> malone has been talking about it, like the cable plan itself. like why are we spending money when we could just join together? we'll see. >> that's why it's important to hear your malone chat. >> that will be next thursday. not a lot of love for match today, down 16 after disappointing results there. watching zillow after strong results. their ceo will join us to break down the numbers and give us his outlook for housing as we have seenhis tuptick in mortgage rates. stay with us. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street." president-elect donald trump will spend today talking to world leaders and even with his

transition team. a senior campaign official confirmed the plans to nbc news. meanwhile, joe biden is scheduled to address the nation shortly from the rose garden, marking his first public remarks since the election. chicago police are investigating an attack at depaul university on two jewish students showing their support for israel. the university said they were punched in front of the student center just after 3:00 in the afternoon. police areweighing to classify the incident as a hate crime. the fast-moving mountain fire has forced the evacuation of more than 10,000 people as it scorches ventura, california. the national weather service says a high fire danger warning is in effect right now until 6:00 p.m. tonight, when winds are expected to slow down. the fire only started yesterday, and has so far burned more than 14,000 acres. the cause is under investigation. sarah? >> pippa, thank you.

zillow shares soaring after reporting a narrower third quarter loss and beating revenue estimates. let's get more on the results of housing with the average rate for 30-year mortgage sitting at four-month highing. i thought the housing market activity has been sluggish with these higher rates. where is the growth coming from? >> the housing market has been challenged, and affordability remains a challenge. but despite that, zillow is growing. outgrowing the category. q3 results, revenue up 17% for the company. we're seeing growth across the entire business. our mortgages and rental revenue segments are growing nicely, as this integrated transaction where we help buyers, sellers find agents. we're bringing that to more customers across the country. >> investors have been excited about this broadening you have done in the revenue streams,

especially in mortgages. so now you're in the business of issuing mortgages? what does that look like, and where do you play here? >> that's right. a fast-growing part of our business is zillow home loans. we are helping buyers get financing. 40% of all buyers now start their hope shopping process with what can i afford? with the affordability challenges of the last couple of years, it's shifted how people think about their home search, and we're seeing those customers ask those questions, and we're introducing them to financing options. and when they shop with a great agent, it's all about building an integration, so they can get financing from us, they can get a great agent from us, and use the zillow app to buy that house. >> i mean, the problem with all the businesses, the mortgage rates are going back up, since the fed cut rates by 50 poise p we've only seen a climb higher in mortgage rates. does that block the prospects of a housing recovery that seemed

to be around the corner? >> any rate relief is going to help because affordability has been such a challenge for so long. think about how much the housing market has moved from prepandemic levels. home prices are up sharply. inventory is down sharply. that supply/demand imbalance pinches most buyers. affordability is going to remain a challenge, and that's why you're seeing transaction volumes in the housing market bounce around at all-time lows. the benefit for us at zillow, our goal is to take this massive audience, 2/3 of home buyers are on zillow. but we only help a small fraction buy a home, find an agent, so our goal is to grow that small share, regardless of the size of the housing market this year or next. >> a president-elect trump, and both candidates were talking about housing affordability, a front and center issue for americans in the campaign. what trump had said about it is

that a lot of it, the affordability problems is due to illegal immigration, and that after he carries out the largest deportation in history, that will ease prices by reducing demand. are you optimistic that can help? >> the big challenges in the real estate market are affordability and availability. those are the two structural problems we have to work on. affordability, as we tatalked about, inventory is our biggest challenge. we are missing listings. listings are up a little bit from last year. but if you look back to prepandemic levels, we're down sharply and chronically underbuilt as a country. so bringing more new home starts online is going to be one of the things that really helps the imbalance. >> is that a big source of demand for that and lack ofville b -- of availability? >> the buyer demand is there. any time you see rates move, you

see demand spike. the pent-up demand is always there. the challenge for buyers is affordability and what they can buy. and so the structural challenges and changes we need to make as a country are around affordability and availability of supply. >> well, that's what he's talking about, and talking about deregulating to get more builders to build homes. jeremy, thank you very much on a day when your stock is soaring. >> great. thanks for having me. another big fed decision on interest rates hours away. we'll get you ready after a break. a quick programming note. cnbc's delivering alpha summit is next week. we'll be speaking with nelson peltz and a number of big-name investors we have for this new outlook we have for the country. go to cnbc.com/deliveringalpha. back after a quick break.

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the fed is expected by many, at least i guess to cut rates again this afternoon. let's get to senior economics reporter steve liesman. of course, he also has exclusive results of our cnbc fed survey on the outlook for stocks, and a chances of a recession. steve. >> yeah, it was also the cnbc fed survey, which we gathered before the election, so the fed expected to continue cut rates. but this group was never as exuberant as the futures market. where do they go to? about where they were in the prior survey. down eventually to neutral and 3.3%. scott rand with wells fargo, a little cautious, says --

>> these cuts come amid a better economic outlook than in the prior survey. the average recession chance in the next 12 months, down to 30%, the lower level since early 2022. 68% say stop waiting for the soft landing, it's here now. that's where we are. 2.4% gdp expected for this year. that is up from 1.3%. the outlook for next year, down a little bit, seeing weakness ahead. it keeps not materializing. 1.8 is the forecast now. it was 2.2 in january. 2024 inflation outlook, where it was. but 2025, up a little bit. maybe that's because of expected tariffs from the trump administration. but mark zandi rites in saying -- >> these forecasts all have a

virtual asterisks next to them because of uncertainties surrounding what policies the next trump administration will enact. of course, the uncertainty about how the fed reacts to those changing. carl? >> steve, i don't want you to give away your question, but what topic are you most interested in? >> i'm interested in his takeaway from the change in the bond market, what that says about where policy ought to go. and i'm trying to think of how i can get him to say something meaningful about the change and meaning in the administration, except for his stock response of, we take fiscal policy as a given. if there's some other way to get him to say something more meaningful how he thinks about coming changes to policies like tariffs, i'm still thinking about it. >> good luck with that, steve. >> it's the question of the da.

>> steve, we will see you for sure this afternoon. steve liesman. >> thanks. major averages coming off the best post election stock market gain since 1896, as the fed gets ready to cut rates again following the bank of england's rate cut earlier today. jim o'neil joins us today, former uk treasury minister. great to have you, jim. i guess the -- my first question is to what degree do you think yield also be as suppressant on prices and activity? >> well, i don't know. i think my answer to a lot of the issues that you just touched on in the previous shows, i don't know. it's interesting that on your first hour of trading today, just looking at prices, the bond market is running quite a bit. i might have missed something behind that, but that's a bit of a relief, i think, for many

markets outside the u.s. where there is a lot of concern about mature policies and ongoing significant rise in bond yields. and obviously, it's going to greatly depend on the hints what trump will do relative to what he claimed he would do ahead of the election. i'm going to get some side of that to a degree by some of the people he will probably appoint. a lot of talk in places like the ft for example today, that scott peasants is a sure-in, but we'll have to way and see. but obviously for this roaring stock market, which yesterday was truly quite remarkable, there will be some level of bond yields that the market will get changed by. so i would imagine that itself will be something that is on

trump's mind as well, given how he seems to like the approval of markets. >> but he also likes weaker dollar, probably lower treasury yields as well with this housing affordability crisis. so i feel like it's setting up for a tense situation between president-elect trump and fed chair jay powell, who is already lowering interest rates. what more can he do to satisfy, you know, not that he -- his job is to satisfy the president, but it's an interesting mix. >> oh, sorry. i was saying, it's setting up for a collision course with these higher rates and stronger dollar that have come out of the trump trade, when those are two things that president trump does not like and powell is already lowering interest rates. >> i think we may have lost jim's connection. >> i thought he just didn't hear me. >> it's a long way, you know,

it's far where he is. >> where is he, in london? >> you have to yell really loud. >> no, but i do think -- look, the point is, treasuries are rallying now and yields are coming down, but they are going higher since the fed cut and since the election, going into the election, coming out of the election on this idea we weill get better growth and higher deficits, but with mortgage rates and exports, that's going to be a topic for us to handle in the coming weeks. we're seeing big gains in retail today. namely ralph lauren and underarmor. i have the skinny on both of them, withomntof cmes the ceo of ralph. don't go anywhere.

a brfresh read out on retai with ralph lauren and under armour are raising guidance. i was able to catch up with the

ceos this morning. ralph lauren's ceo telling me the desirability of the brand continues to increase, and this really stands out in a challenged luxury environment. ralph lauren has lost 6% sales growth, saying a discerning consumer is focused on the brand, core products at 70% of the company is growing double digits. a lot of the success is the work we've been doing to elevate the brand. 30 quarters in a row where they have increased, this quarter up another 10%, which is basically elevating the status and the price consumers are willing to pay for the brand. coming into the holiday, he said we see nice momentum. he doesn't want to prejudge, but does not intend to be promotional. also, ralph lauren has done a good job bringing in new consumers, saying 1.5 million

new consumers new to the brand this quarter, including a lot of young and affluent consumers. north america turned positive, 3% growth there, driven by direct-to-consumer. this is a company that's severed a lot of relationships with hundreds of department stores in the last few years. to consumer. remember, this is a company that severed a lot of relationships with department stores, hundreds of them, in the last few years and focused on building its own stores and e-commerce business and that's been successful. china, performed well in china. they are coming from a much lower base than other big luxury companies there. clearly the brand is resonating. i did have a chance to ask him about what would happen if president-elect trump goes with his plans particularly on china, and he said less than 10% overall comes from china as far as goods are produced. they have done a lot of the near

shoring in places like south america, for instance, to guatemala, so if we get the blanket tariffs, he said that will impact the consumer and will impact basically every retailer in america because most apparel products are not made in the country though ralph lauren does have american-made productions. >> well, certain parts of it, you know, it depends, and if you are relying on china as well, where luxury has been weak. >> but they have done a lot to transform their brand and sort of the perception of their brand, ralph lauren. want to give a shout-out to under armour who is the best day ever. the progress here that investors

are rewarding, they were telling the street it would be less than that beforehand and they raised the profitability guidance on that and they are discounting less. they are trying to do what ralph lauren is doing, attract a higher-level consumer on higher-level brands. basically fewer skews, have less products and fewer promotions, and they have not had growth yet and investors are excited about the progress. and under armour, siegel back on the under armour train. >> far cry from the glory days. and comingup, novo nordisk, we have an interview with the

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programming note for tomorrow headed out west to citigroup's teleconference in pebble beach, california. jane fraser, and ibm ceo, both

of them are on "squawk on the street" this hour. also, ceos of nasdaq and palo alto and t-mobile. it will be a good chance to get a first response to the election and a lot going on there with generative ai and all the transformation. it has been a busy day for earnings and street calls. dom chu tracking some of the movers. >> some of the key analyst calls out this morning. tesla shares up 1% or so after bank of america raised the stock's price, and it was up 15% yesterday after the donald trump victory. arm holding shares after the price target increase at jpmorgan, and barclays. keep an eye on that one.

on the flip side, jpmorgan lowering elf beauty and reiterating the overweight rating on the stock. this comes as the company's recently quarterly report shows a 40% jump in shares. and qualcomm, up 2% on the back of a strong fourth quarter earnings report. jpmorgan's price target sits at 200 with the overweight. >> thanks for that great roundup there. let's look at the white house. president biden is getting ready to address the nation from the rose garden. that will be in a few moments. our live market coverage right here continues.

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good thursday morning. welcome to "money movers." we're live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. at this moment we are awaiting remarks from president biden awaiting the nation to discuss the election results and the transition. we will tack you