companies start to maybe room to spend on software at a time when it's hard to justify so much ai spend. >> and finally, josh brown? >> staying long toast into the earnings. may god have mercy on my soul. >> that was 1.5%. we'll see what happens. thanks for joining us. ly see you on "closing bell" again. "the exchange" is now. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's coming up. it's not the cut, it's the commentary. investors are looking for my clue on the fed's rate path today. we've got the new president-elect, a debate over how inflationary trump's policies could be and we'll look at opportunities in equities and bonds. and we'll drill down on the impact across the hardware, i.t. space, apple. there's been a lot of talk of

tariffs, but there's some names that caught our attention. they count apple and nvidia as partners. the name down 10% year-to-date and why it's positioned for gains ahead. and upwork sharply higher. we have a lot of rising stocks in the market today. the ceo joins us live on the corner in their recent job cuts and making deals with some activist pressure. let's begin with the markets and dom chu is here with the latest. >> another day, another set of record highs, kelly, because we have them and we just had the dow join the party. so we are again near session highs right now and hitting record intraday levels. so i'll draw our little stars up here for the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq, each of which have had record intraday levels today. it started off that way with the nasdaq and s&p, but now the dow has set its own high water mark, 43,777 for the dow, up 0.1 of 1%, good enough for a record. the s&p 500 is up 40 something

points, and up about 18 at the lows. again, just about three quarters of 1% gain to 5970. so there's the levels we want to watch there. and the nasdaq composite at 19,246. just about up 1.5%, so the tech trade outperforming. one of the reason force that is generally the mega tech complex. qualcomm and arm holdings, interestingly enough, both companies reported earnings results that were generally positive. there was some questions about whether or not ai would be as big a driver for somebody like arm holdings, but shares up 4.5%. qualcomm, again, some solid gains there driven by gains this their automotive business and chip set businesses, so keep an eye on chips. and speaking of chips, i'm going to put this up for context around the new, most valuable publicly traded company in the s&p 500. that is nvidia, at 3.64 trillion dollars in market cap, so

eclipsing apple's market cap which is $3.43 trillion. notable again that kind of build in terms of how many billions of dollars that gap is continues to get bigger. so keep an eye on the chips, kell. back over to you. >> incredible to see how much bigger it is now, dom. thanks. we have about an hour until the fed's decision on interest rates. let's go over to steve liesman who is at the federal reserve. wildly expected they'll cut by a quarter, but these are some strange conditions to be cutting in. >> very interesting, kelly. let me start first with powell taking the podium with a new set of issues following the re-election of former president trump, who is an outspoken critic personally and of fed policy. he said the fed had no guts, no sense and no vision and he claimed he could demote the fed chair. he threatened to fire powell if re-elected.

in july of '24, he said he wouldn't fire powell if he was doing a good job. the fed can ignore criticism. most think the president doesn't have the authority to replace the fed chair, but he was facing plenty of uncertainty. now new issues how the fed respond ts to tariffs. here's the outlook for the fed. 96% say we get a cut in about an hour. 79% say they cut again in december. 3.6 cuts continue into 2025 aboarding to the survey, despite the higher interest rates. this is in line with where the future market is now. so the fed survey shows respondents think the fed sells into lowering rates every other meeting next year starting in march with a big asterisks next to it. kelly, covering the fed just got

a lot more interesting. get some sleep. >> i'm watching the reporting on this. people mostly saying that it looks like trump would have powell staid on. his term is not up until the middle of 2026. so not a lot of year term change is likely. i don't think there's a lot of turnover coming up on the board either, is there? >> no, there is not, not until 2026. i did talk to a former trump official who told me that the president has a lot of stuff on his plate, and having a big fight or legal fight with the fed is probably going to be lower down, especially if rates are, indeed, coming down. there is some uncertainty. my guess is that powell will move more slowly than the president would like, and that could be a point of contention. again, we need to make a separation between this criticism that i think nothing is going to stop the president-elect from talking about the fed, but whether or not that matters is more important. >> we have senators, the guy out

of colorado saying that the fed should cut by half a point, and congress has direct oversight of the fed, not the president. >> that is correct. you make an interesting point that the president will only have authority to change the fed chair if congress changes the federal reserve act. and in fact, by the time that would ever happen, chair powell's term would be up. i think criticism is one thing, but it's the idea of whether or not there's actually he goes further. i think powell is fine taking it on the chin from the president. the question is whether or not it has any impact on what policy they do. >> steve, we'll see you at 2:00 p.m. our steve liesman. the fed is widely expected to cut by a quart, but what it does after this meeting got more uncertain. the odds of a december cut have fallen with trump returning to the white house. for more on the potential impact on markets and the economy, evan brown is here, head of

multistrategy at ubc management. subatra joins us. jay, kick it off for us. is december, you know, a closer one that it used to be a couple days ago? >> well, it certainly is live. it's really clearly going to depend on the data between now and then. i don't think the fed officials are going to be looking down the line to see what the president may or may not do at some point next year. that still remains very uncertain at this point. and so it's really going to depend on the incoming data between now and this december meeting. but i think at this point, it's still very much a live meeting. >> what do you think is likely on this front? people are asking the question whether they can hike rates again? >> yeah, i agree with jay. it's going to be status quo till the end of the year. after that point on, it will be much more data dependant.

we're going to have the swearing in of the new president, and maybe guidance from leadership that he puts in place. but for the most part, i would say that the 20 something basis points for december is baked in. the data has been relatively strong, so a much more measured case of cuts next year makes sense. the market, in fact, is underpriced for cuts relatively to the medium dot. so for us, i think less is more. maybe they stick to the dot plot, but maybe less, given the fact that the economy has been strong. >> not only is the economy strong, the labor market still seems okay. dan clifton was here yesterday making a wonky point saying we're going to hit the debt ceiling on january 2nd, so they're likely to tap the general account, which has $800 billion, and he argues that is a form of stimulus because it comes into the economy, because it's not affecting us in another way. is that a legitimate argument

that gives us even more fuel on what's kind of this economic fire in a good sense out there? >> no, i'm not too concerned about what's happening with the debt ceiling. this kind of bank liquidity stays within the banking system. so not concerned about that being stimulus or tightening. more focused on what fed policy is. >> so talk -- make the case for them continuing to cut by a quarter, just looking at the realtime conditions in the markets with stocks at all-time highs and everything else going on. >> yeah, it all looks pretty good. on the surface, you could say why are you cutting rates at all? i think they do think that they're restrictive, and the trend in inflation is moving lower. and we are seeing wages, we saw the employment cost index a week or so ago. that is still moving lower.

as long as inflation is still trending down, by keeping policy on hold, that's tightening policy because it means real interest rates are going higher. there's an argument to just move with the economy. we've had some really strong data, but i think in the fourth quart e, we'll cool down a little bit. >> is inflation falling that much? let's talk about that. i'm not sure how much there's been an adjustment. i'm not sure a quarter point adjustment downward may go too far relative to the inflation, the disinflation that we have seen. >> yeah, so we -- the trend is good the last print came in a little hotter than expected, and we'll have to watch that. the fed is going to watch that closely. thre three, six-month moving average, they have enough there to justify easing rates. they're not overly focused on stocks, and now financial conditions have tightened somewhat because we have seen this big rise in the ten-year

yield since the last meeting. >> fair enough. what do you make of that? and i'm curious about the yield curve. it's started to steepen again between the twos and tens, and you think this would be helpful for make the banking system and other knock-on effects for the economy. >> yeah, financial conditions haven't eased as much -- i mean, tightened as much because of the fact that even though yields rose a little bit yesterday, equities have really taken off in a big way. so the dollar is a little stronger and yields are a tad higher, in the big scheme of things, the steepening trade that has been sort of the trump trade has run its course in my view. the front end is priced for a very benign policy path, and what drives the long end is going to be when we get cloudy on the deficits. as it stands right now, it

doesn't seem that we have enough information to really push ten-year yields meaningfully higher from here based on the trajectory of debt and deficits. so we're just waiting on more data to see how the yield curve is going to appreciate from here on. >> jay, let's go inside that meeting for a second that started yesterday, of course, and ends today. to everyone's points about yields, the ten-year on september 17, the day before they cut by half a basis point was at 3.64 and we're at 4.34. what is classic economics likely to tell people is the response in that situation? what is that information telling them? >> well, i think it's telling us two things. part of the upward movement in the nominal yield is yreal yiels have come up, as well that. is concern about the debt going forward. that's pushing it up, and the other thing is the so-called

break evens. the spread between the ten-year nominal and the real rate, that's moved up, as well. they certainly aren't unwarranted at this point, but they are moving up to about where they were a year or so ago at the highs. so there's two things going on here. you've got a larger debt pushing up yields and inflation expectations also pushing it up, as well. >> what do the policymakers do with that? >> well, so i think there's nothing they can do about the debt. that's outside their control. what they can do is control inflation expectations. so it will be interesting to see what happens at the meeting today. do you get a dissent? the last time government bowman dissented, you get another person that doesn't want to cut rates. what did they say about how do they characterize inflation? you know, are they saying it continues to come down but making only slow progress. so it will be interesting to see how they characterize the inflation outlook at this point.

>> just to push on that one more time. normally, they're pushing against inflation expectations. trying to get them back down or they talk about tightening policy. do you expect any kind of verbiage in that direction, even as they're cutting rates, they try to do that? >> you're not going to see that so much in the statement. it will be interesting to see what powell says in the press conference. does he push back on the expectation of rate cuts, you know, in the first part of next year? right now, the market is -- after this meeting, the market is priced for another 25 basis point rate cut in either december or january. does he try to push back against that, saying we're not making as much progress against inflation as we want? so clearly i expect him to cut rates today, but what sort of guidance do they give going forward? >> evan, if they did a hawkish cut, so called, should we expect risk assets to sell off because it's indig save og -- indicativ

stronger economy? >> i don't think we'll get a hawkish cut that the fed is down or anything like that. i think any kind of cut won't be hawkish, but it might be just optimistic as you're saying in the sense that okay, we're open minded that we may not have to do more easing down the road just because things are -- the economy is in a good place. but in the end, powell doesn't like to be boxed in, right? he likes to be data dependent and what he'll try to do today. >> we'll see if markets take it in stride. thank you everyone for your time, building up to this decision. still to come, apple could be one of the companies most at risk of tariffs under the trump administration, but some of the tech giants' efforts to diversify the supply chain could help mitigate those effects. we'll tell you why and which other names to watch. plus, upwork is surging 14%

today, up 60% in two weeks since announcing preliminary quarterly reports and a round of layoffs. we'll hear from the ceo about the company and what's next. 44 minutes to go until the fed decision on interest rates. "the exchange" is back after this. >> you're watching "the exchange" on cnbc.

welcome back to "the exchange." a trump presidency is expected to bring business friendly

regulation and lower corporate taxes and potentially steep new tariffs for goods imported from china and mexico, havingbig implications from apple. while it's been diversifying away from china and into india and vietnam, the majority of iphones are still made in china. joining me now is the i.t. hardware analyst at evercore. how big an impact do you think this will have on a $3 trillion company? >> listen, it all depends on the magnitude of tariffs and how aggressive they are. if it's 10%, it's little. if it's much higher, it might be much more. trump did implement tariffs the last time around, and apple, to all their credit, was one of the few companies, if not the only company, that was able to get exemptions. so iphones had zero tariffs, but everything else did.

so it's going to be a whole different equation. >> if i recall, tim cook did a lot to have a relationship with trump and lobby for that xech shun. he's still -- exemption. and he's still leading the company, so it will be hard to imagine there will be different outcome. >> he called tim at apple the last time around. i would say the one thing apple has done really well in the last four years, eight years now is they have diversified their manufacturing base. so about 25% of iphone production is done in india right now. about 25% of variable production is getting done at vietnam. so to the extent there's a delta with tariffs in china, that could have a benefit. >> all right. you still have dell, you have

the hp company. cbw was the mystery chart. why would they be more vulnerable? >> dell, hp, and really most of the manufacturing don't really make it in the united states anymore. all these are made in china or in mexico. so there will be some tariff head winds to contend with. cdw sell solutions to small businesses, and the last time we had a trump presidency, we saw a big stepup in sentiment on the smbs and cdw benefited tremendously from them. so it might be a bit of a positive. >> i'm curious, as people run these calculations, how much do you think this administration could be different from the prior one, and also, of course,

bid biden extended some of trump's tariffs, but what are you listening for in the weeks and months to come? >> you want to listen to what are these tariffs going to be, and are they going to be 10%, are they going to be much higher? and how broad are these? are they going to apply to products that come from mexico and vietnam and india, as well or more china centric. so i think the breadth of the tariffs and the numbers that they put behind are going to be critical. and apple again it's still president trump and tim cook as ceo should get the exemptions again. >> we'll turn our attention to mexico and everything that will happen on that front, immigration, trade, tariffs, we talk about china, but which tech companies could be vulnerable from tariffs and goods coming

from mexico? >> one is a lot of the supply chain that comes in the u.s. is in mexico at this point. and in terms of names like dell, hp, those would be the two that might be a bit more mexico heavy right now than eight years ago. >> amid, thank you for your time today. and lyft is soaring 25% after beating earnings estimates and hiking its full-year outlook. after the break, we'll tell you what that says about the gig economy and what it could look like under a trump administration. we have just under 40 minutes until the fed decision on rates. just over halfn ahour. we'll be back after this on "the exchange." multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa.

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exchange for life sentences. the judge said that the defense secretary lloyd austin acted too late and overstepped his authority when he rescinded those plea deals. australia is proposing new legislation that would ban children under the age o from using social media. the country's prime minister said the legislation will be introduced during the last two weeks of its session later this month, and if it passes, it will go into effect 12 months later. during that time, facebook, tiktok and x would need to figure out how to exclude australian children. this morning, crews cut down the massive norway spruce that will become the focal point of the rockefeller center christmas festivities. the 11-ton tree is 74 feet tall, 43 feet wide and scheduled to be delivered to manhattan this saturday ahead of the tree lighting that comes on december 4th. kelly, back to you. >> did they say where it was from, t zbly?

>> i don't know. i'll find out and report back. >> i'm being told it's from massachusetts. shares of lyft are having their second best day ever, up more than 20% after the company reported record trips and hiked earnings guidance. what can a new trump administration mean for a big economy stocks? let's ask deidre bosa. >> yes, lyft shares are surging today. longer term, robo taxis a big question mark. will uber and lyft be killed off or morphing into something else. what does that look like, and would that carry the same valuation? now, the incoming trump administration and elon musk's role, whatever that is, could be the new catalyst in this equation. uber and lyft have been on a deal-make frenzy, many in the autonomous space. even if you don't think this is close to deploying its own robo taxi fleet, musk and the white

house is likely to advocate for regulatory support and funding incentives for the industry that would benefit other players. and while waymo has that partnership with uber, here in san francisco, you can book directly through the waymo app bypassing uber all together. ride sharing has the task of making sure waymo isn't a trojan horse. getting people comfortable with driverless cars only to cut out uber and lyft later. it could also spur more consolidation as they look to diversify. investors were very enthusiastic, and the lyft ceo said that its doordash partnership is seeing the quick adoption of linked accounts. bottom line, kelly, having trump back in the house with musk makes these existential questions for ride sharing and

delivery all the more urgent. >> where do we stand? this is largely state by state, where we have seen some states trying to move to force them into being workers. massachusetts just had a ballot referendum, as well. other states could still be more gig workers? >> you're talking about the contractors and the push to become full employees under uber and lyft. this is one of the biggest questions that has always faced the ride sharing industry, and maybe kept valuations lower than where they might be otherwise, this threat of regulation. if independent contractors become employees, the business model doesn't work. you don't have that same question with robo taxis because there is no driver. but you're right, it was on the ballot in massachusetts, and now they're going to be able to unionize, which could be a good thing for the gig companies, because there's less of a chance they could become employees, and it could raise prices at a time when waymo is becoming more efficient. >> and airbnb is a lot more

efficient. deidre, for now, thanks. we appreciate it. still to come on "the exchange," we'll get some insights from the c-suite. upwork striking a deal to buy objective ai. the shares are up 10%. we'll have the ceo about that, the labor market and more, and these gig issues we were just talking about. the fed decision less than 30 minutes away now. any cut to rates could help the mortgage market. it was supposed to help the last time, it didn't. that's when "the exchange" returns. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1.

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welcome back. it's been a roller coaster year for upwork. shares had been down as much as 37% from january earlier this year. now, they are up almost exactly that much. they've soared since mid september, when activist investor engine capital sent a letter to the board saying the company needs to fix foundational issues. the shares are up 80% since then. they announced a reorganization plan that included a 21% workforce reduction and raised

third quarter guidance, reporting final results after the bell which has shares surging. a beat on the top and bottom lines. they hiked full-year guidance and announced a $100 million buyback. here to discuss those results is upwork's "the exchange" hayden brown. welcome. >> thanks so much, kelly. >> i feel like there could be a novel about everything that's taken place this year. what is the fundamental difference with the company today versus maybe, you know, january 1 of this year? >> look, it's not that different of a company. it's just that we haven executing really well on our long-term plan and strategy around profitable growth and all the executions from this year. we announced the share buyback that you referenced, the second one of the year. but more fundamentally, we have been driving our strategies. the ai strategy, we've been making strides in that direction. so i think that's just the start

of this business, strong execution against a great plan. >> on a typical day on the platform, who is looking to hire freelance workers, and how many people might be vying for those jobs, what kind of work is this typically? >> we serve a diverse, global base of clients and talent. on the client side, we have small businesses, large enterprises like microsoft. and so these clients are coming to our platform looking for highly skilled, knowledge workers who are active across our more happen 140 categories of work. 10,000 skills on the platform. so buyers that are looking for folks that can do long-term projects for them. we have specifically right now a really high area, as you might imagine, is ai related work. so a lot of these folks are using ai or are doing specific

ai related tasks, so there's a lot of that activity happening today. >> so the macro data, we have gone from a period of kind of medium strength to maybe accelerating strength, then all of a sudden maybe less hiring activity, maybe some disruption around the storms and the strikes that we have seen. that's what the macro data is telling us. what would you describe has been happening with the labor market this year based on what's going on with your platform? >> we have seen increasing challenges for small and large businesses alike due to increasing inflation, high interest rates. and these really have been compounding for many quarters, making it much harder for these businesses to do hiring, and despite that, you know, they've been doing a lot of work on our platform. our business saw 17% revenue growth in the first half of this year compared to a negative 8% pullback in the staffing

industry as a whole. i think that speaks to the preference people have for the freelancing network. >> so let me circle back to ai. you made an acquisition, and this has to be a white knuckle time to make an acquisition in ai. i can't imagine valuations are low. so how do you figure out what the target should be, make sure that the price you're paying is appropriate, and how are you looking to implement that as a company? >> this was a great acquisition for us, kelly. it's a small tech and talent acquisition that advances core search capabilities on upwork, and for our clients, you can imagine they're going to upwork to get matched with, you know, the right job or right freelancer, and this team has built out phenomenal capabilities in the search space that will augment our search and match performance. so this will augment things like realtime search, multimodal

search, bring video and voice and other assets to the equation, which is really important, because we do so much mashing and work delivery through our platform. that's super interesting. makes me want to check it out myself. would there be a use case that you can give us as an example of how this might makeit easier for -- and more effective to match people than what we might have seen in the past? >> absolutely. a typical client might come to our site and try to figure out which are higher for long-term profit. we have assets like video profiles that they can use to get to know our freelancer and capabilities, and now our client will be able to use this search capability to more easily surface key moments in videos or bring forward video assets or voice assets from freelancer information to really get to know talent better. again, this will be much more enriched. at the same time, we have our

work companion that is doing much more for clients and for talent to match them with the right people on both sides and also to deliver work for them. with objectives capabilities built in, we'll be able to integrate assets to bear. >> so this is an ai agent you call ruma? >> that's correct. we're trying to make it easy for our clients. they're coming in and doing work for our platform. >> absolutely. everyone says that agents are the new ai or something like that. >> it's upward mindful ai. >> very good. hayden, thank you for joining us. we hope to check back in soon. again, what a year it's been. appreciate your time. still to come, vistra shares

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welcome back. tuesday's red wave pushed yields higher. the 30-year fixed mortgage popped up above 6%. diana olick, this is i'm sure not what the fed was expecting when they cut six weeks ago. >> certainly not. reits have been on a tear in the last few weeks. the average on the 30-year fixed hit its last low september 11, just before the fed made its first rate cut. rates don't follow the fed, instead they loosely follow the yield on the ten-year treasury. instead of going down, rates went steadily up, as we saw more

positive indicators in the economy. then bond yields soared yesterday and rates jumped higher, but today they did come back down a bit to 6.98%. so for a home buyer buying a $400,000 home with 20% down on a 30-year fixed, their monthly payment today is about $215 more than it would have been in september. we have recently seen home buying demand higher, pending home sales up 7% in september from august despite rates turning higher. and red fin is reporting pending sales up 4% year over year in the four weeks leading up to the election. still, the big builder names took the bond selloff hard. they are back on the rebound today in advance of the fed. a 25-point basis cut is expected, but rates follow what the fed is thinking and feeling about the future, so any swing in mortgage rate also be a reaction to the commentary

following that announcement. >> diana, thank you. let's get a look at other rates versus right before the fed's september cut. the average credit card rate, look at the chart. the top line is where we are now, the bottom line is where we were right before the last cut. credit card rates, 20.39%. the average five-year car loan, down maybe 15 or 20 basis points. 48-month car loan, similar story. and the mortgage rate is higher. so as you can see, many of these rates are barely lower. my next guest thinks these rates should continue to fall, but only like a feather. ted rossman is an analyst at bank rate. good to have you here. >> good to be here. >> they cut by another 25 today. consumers shouldn't expect near term relief? >> that's right. the average is still over 20%

for credit cards. the advice there is work with a reputable credit counselor, do what you can to pay it down. rates are high, they're going to stay high. car loans, too. we're talking mid 7s for new cars. low and the credit card rates are high and going to stay high, and we are talking about the mid-7.0s for cars and these are much higher than we saw in a few years ago and we are not going back to 4% in a long time. >> and are these high spreads a function of the -- let me put it this way. have the spreads gone up or not? >> well, a little bit of margin padding especially on the credit cards, and one factor is the cdfd's late fee cap which has led some issuers and especially the store cards and the other cards to compensate for a drop in one place, and make it up elsewhere, and also, we have to remember that the fed pushed

rates higher by 5.25 points and it is going to take a while to unwind it, and the highest rates in decades for many of the products. >> but in reality if they had cut by half a point six weeks ago and we had seen it play out, it is the unanticipated rise in the long-term rates that is as a result that we are looking at the relatively unchanged picture today? >> especially for the mortgage rates. a year ago the mortgage rates briefly hit 8% for the first time since 2000 and then to 6.2 and now back to 7.0. and the trump reelection is part of this, and then some inflationary like tariffs and lower immigration, and it is going to be interesting to see where the lower mortgage rates come from, and this is going to be a topic of powell's press conference and maybe not the mortgage specifically, but where is that terminal rate, and the long-term neutral.

maybe it is not as low as we thought. and the other part is that the economic data is coming in more solid than expected in many respect, and maybe we are not going back to the 2.5% fed funds rate, and maybe it is eventually 3.0 or 3.5 and that is going to keep all of the rates higher. >> maybe it is a grisly joke to make, but maybe they should be hike them, because if people are worried it would slow down toe co -- the economy, and it would inverse it, and it would combat the 10-year fall. >> and there is a little bit be careful what you wish for, because for the mortgage rates to go back to 4s, there is bad economic news. >> exactly. >> so it is a case where you don't want to buy a house if things are crumbling, so we do, and we are thankful for the stronger tone of the economic data, but it is tough for the

borrowers and it is all news is local kind of thing. if you have credit card debt, it is a tough environment, and if you are a first-time home buyer, it is tough. >> and trump had said capping the credit card rates at 10%, and if we should expect any bring forward of higher rates, if that ever gets implemented. >> that would be a seismic shift. that is interest, and that even further than alexandria ocasio cortez or bernie sanders proposed. that is not something that a president can do unilaterally, and i don't see any movement on that, and there would be major unintended consequences. >> such as? >> access to credit, and other fees up, and it would not be profitable for the fees if that is all they could lend. >> but we have the buy now and pay later, ted. >> but it is creeping in 1% to 3% of the overall credit card market, but it is growing rapidly but it is a small slice.

and credit cards are a huge market, and 1.3 trillion of outstanding credit card loans. >> ted, a pleasure to check in with you before this decision. ted, thank you. tyler is going to weigh in on other side of the break. stay with us. this is happening people. where there are so few certainties... (laughing) look around you. you deserve to know. as we navigate a future unknown. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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"power lunch" alongside kelly evans. we are minutes away on the fed's decision on interest rates. after a half point cut last time, they are expected to cut a quarter of a rate today. we will check into the markets at this moment and seeing the follow-through of the historic rally, and you can call it follow-through, and 0.04%. and the nasdaq is up 0.66%. and the nasdaq is up 1.35%. >> and it is like a catchup, because it was lagging yesterday, and the russell is taking a breather down seven point, and speaking of taking a breather, look at the 10-year yield pushing higher sharply since the last meeting, and you see the rise there, and we are up sharply on the election night, but we have given it up to 434, and watching the level as the decision and the press

ser coming in. >> we have about 2 1/2 minutes while we await this fed decision. glad to have you david kelly, and jeff and debra. and what do you believe the fed will do? >> they will cut it 0.25, and they are not data-depen department, but policy-dependent as well. how they implement the policy is going on the depend on how expansive the trump agenda turns out to be, but they don't know that yet, and because of that, they will try to say as little of that by admitting that the fiscal policy next year may dictate the amount of the monetary policy. >> stephanie, do you agree with what david just said, and 0.25 cut and as we head into next

year an intense focus on the fed's part of what is going on fiscally, and in other words with tax cuts and spending? >> yeah, powell does not want to make any predictions of the fiscal policy, and they will stick with the data as it come, and likely .25 and then .25 again and then move to every other meeting cadence. and we are thinking that much of this will not be implemented until the end of 2025 and they will continue with that trajectory until they have clarity of the fiscal policy being implemented. >> all right, jeffim caron, whas your thought? >> when the fiscal policy is there, they will see what the impact is on the overall economy, but the key question today is that they said back in september a terminal policy at 3%, and the market thinks it is aligned with 3.5%, and that is

one of the things ts that push the yields higher, and the one question for me is if the fed is starting to change what they believe is the terminal policy rate, and is it pushed higher given the rate of inflation and jobs andeverything else. >> that the thing to watch for there, and what the terminal or lowest rate may be. let's get to steve liesman for fed's decision. >> the federal reserve is cutting the rate by 0.25% or a mid range of 4.50 to 4.75. there was no dissent by the fed governor michelle bowman and they will continue to consider adjusting the funds rate, and looking at the data and the rix s -- risks and the outlook adds well. and the mandate is higher inflation or higher unemployment, but it is seeing the risks as roughly