6,600 for the middle of 2025. we did get a record in the s&p 500 today, the nasdaq, as well, also a record. the dow basically finishing unchanged down about half a point. but we're going to continue to watch this market, as we have a number of factors contributing to the rally we've been seeing. that does it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. record closes for the nasdaq and the s&p. the fed cuts rights by a quarter point and the central bank chief says he is staying put in the next administration. we'll dive into what that means for policy in the months and years to come. we'll talk to the ceo of a company that's used a.i. to flag accounting issues at super micro and other companies. where she's seeing signs of trouble now. plus, nvidia preps to enter the dow.

and the post earnings moves on rivian, affirm, capri, and more. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- karen finerman, dan nathan, guy adami, and michael contopolous. we start with the dow closing just in the red after hitting an intraday record during the session. the fed announced a quarter point rate cut. and chair jay powell addressed his future in a second trump administration. cnbc's steve liesman has the latest. >> hey, melissa. the fed cut rates by a quarter point, down to 4.63 and suggested more to come gradually. chair jay powell tried to present a status quo policy, as if nothing has changed. he had to respond to the question about whether president-elect trump could fire him. >> do you believe the president has the power to fire or demote you, and has the fed determined the legality of a president

demoting at will any of the other governors with leadership positions? >> not permitted under the law. >> not what? >> not permitted under the law. >> thank you. >> all right, for another, a trump presidency promises a vastly different fiscal regime and powell responded that the fed would take it as it comes. >> of course, the real question is not the effect of that law, it's all of the policy changes that are happening, what's the net effect? and, you know, the overall effect on the economy at any given time. so, i think that's a process that takes a lot of time, and that we go through all the time, with every administration, constantly, and i just -- this will be no different. >> fed chair seems to have succeeded in presenting a stat fuss quo. probability for fed rate cuts largely unchanged. 71% for december, then a break, 33% for january, and 67% for march of 2025, as the market settles into this idea of cuts every other meeting next year. the recent rise in bond yields

and reduced outlook for rate cuts next year, they already reflect the market's new jooutlk for a trump presidency, better growth, maybe more inflation, or higher deficits or some unknown combination of the three. >> they said that the risks were balanced, steve, and yet they still acted, so, i'm curious as to what your interpretation of that. if it were perfectly balanced, maybe they wouldn't have moved, but they did. >> that's right, but that's because i think what the chair was saying is that we're still in this recalibration regime. that is bringing rates down to a place where they're essentially -- pardon me, balanced, and then the fed will figure out where to go based upon the notion of what the data say. but i think they want to bring it down a little bit further, do that quarter point in december again, that will get you down to 4.25, maybe get closer to 4%, and then feel their way through it. >> steve, it's karen. thanks for being on. just on the heels of melissa's

question, where do you think the real rate goal is? >> you know, i think it's probably in the 3.5% range, it's a good question. i don't think i have anymore insight than the fed does on this. our fed survey today has consistently, by the way, over several surveys now, put it at 3.3. that is higher. if you're going to run higher deficits, you're going to have -- and if you're going to have stronger growth, it's going to be a little bit higher. i look for example every day at headlines about investments needed for artificial intelligence and you see big, big numbers in the tens of billions of dollars, all that increases the demand for capital. also a very interesting conversation to have about t the -- america's ability to attract the capital it needs to finance deficits, if you're going to be putting tariffs on, because that's like a tax on that capital that needs to come in. so, that's another question that needs to be answered, so, there are a lot of uncertain tips out there, karen, that are going to

affect at least the medium to short-term kneutral rate. >> steve, i think a fed governor, fed chair can be fired by the president for cause, whatever that means, there was some amendment to the federal reserve act, but that's not -- here's my question to you, and this is teeing you up a little bit. you've been around this a long time. how would you stack up jerome powell six years-ish now? i'll go out and say i think he's done an extraordinary job. >> well, i think he's had a lot of challenges. i think he maybe messed up a couple of times, maybe in the initial response to inflation and the pandemic. it's going to be long debated, guy, the extent to which the fed might have acted earlier. i think if he had it back to do it again, they might have acted earlier. i think the notion of separating fiscal policy from monetary policy is one, again, worth examining and whether the fed should have acted in a way that

potentially had some offsets, all the fiscal spending that came through. i think he's handled it well. he's certainly done better at the politicking of the fed and done better also at innovating. look, he's done, i think, a decent job, i think some of the outcomes were not what anybody would have hoped when it came to the inflation breakout in the -- and of course, there was a big upset in 2019 over the balance sheet, but again, these are all historical things that he's been through, and more or less managed it pretty well. >> steve, mike here. you mentioned the inflation breakout, post-covid, you know, chair powell today mentioned that he thought the year over year inflation rate was going to go up temporarily before coming back down at the beginning of the year. if you look at five-year break evens, they've gone from roughly, you know, 190, 195 to almost 2 1/2 now, which is near one-year high. do you think he's at all concerned about the markets pricing for inflation going forward instead of only focusing

on sort of this rear view mirror that he talked about today? >> yeah, i think eventually over time -- i asked him about recent bond yield moves, and i think what he said to that, well, if they're sustained for awhile and have an economic impact, it's worth watching. i think they put that into the hopper. and i think they also, though, see inflation getting a little he p f help from the housing market, rental prices should eventually filter into the data. so, i think that's an issue they're watching. i don't think it's decisive in the moment. they're in this recalibration move, which says we're not hyper concerned about the data right now. we will be, though, when we get closer to neutral. >> steve, you know, i'm not so good at math, but let's just say -- i think a lot of folks feel the one problem, the one issue that fed chair powell made was 2021 and not acknowledging inflation soon enough. let's just say they started to raise interest rates mid-2021. would it really have done that much to the cumulative effects

of inflation over, let's say, the last three, four years? i'm curious, because that term transitory seemed to be overused, because in hindsight, with inflation below 3%, it was transitory, just, whatever your time period was. >> yeah, you know, dan, i have been over this a thousand times in my head, i've given a up canal lectures about this at different universities about what they could have done and when they could have gone earlier. did you forget, dan, in 2021, we had another outbreak of covid? that ended up not being as consequential as you thought, but back in 2021, would you have staked your monetary policy or the fate of the nation on the idea that the next outbreak was not going to be consequential? the fed was -- and the fiscal side, were both fighting outcomes. i talk to an economist dan, and i said, what did you think about the response -- by the way, of the trump administration, of the biden administration, and the fed. and he said, i thought they were great. i said, why?

he said, remember. we were talking about whether or not the unemployment rate in the pandemic was going to be somewhat lower, equal to, or higher than the unemployment rate in the great depression. that's what we were looking down. i think you could have found a two, three, four-month period where the fed might have gone a little quicker, that could have helped a little bit with the inflation numbers, but if you're saying, you know, was it a big span of time, did they sit way too long? i think the answer is no to that. >> steve, it's always great to speak with you, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> steve liesman outside of the fed. let's talk about the market reaction. this was widely expected in terms of what we got, what we heard. so, in terms of -- it didn't unravel. >> no. >> it doesn't unravel yesterday's big gains. we did give up some ground on banks, housing reversed a little bit, but overall, it's been a pretty good market performance. >> kwwithout question.

given the move we saw wednesday -- we'll talk about that if it happens tomorrow, but the bond market didn't go crazy today, you saw yields actually back up a little bit, which i think is quasi-encouraging if you are worried that bonds are going too high. but i think it's going to be predicated on what's going to happen to ten-year yields. >> where are they headed, michael? >> higher. you are one of two, guy, i agree with you. i think we were already in a place where yields were likely to go higher. earnings growth is strong, the economy is doing fine, and now you're layering on top of that, you know, an agenda that is probably quite inflationary. so, certainly over the near term, you know, our fair value model says the ten-year should be at 4.6, 4.7%. i could see upside to that. i think you could see 5% again. i don't really, you know, cutting interest rates in the context of a strong economy is basically adding fuel to the fire, so, i could see higher yields. >> this was a mistake today?

>> i think the fed should not be cutting. we thought they would cut 25 basis points, but no, i don't think they should be cutting at all. >> and if yields go to 5% on the ten-year, what happens to stocks? >> it depends. >> right. >> right, if it goes to 5%, because the economy is really humming and -- then that's one thing. if you get into a stagflation scenario, that's a very different thing. >> yeah, i -- i guess the other thing is we have to start incorporating -- if there's going to be mass deportations, think about one of the biggest fears the fed has had is that these wage gains get entrenched in the market, or, in the economy, and that sort of thing, so, to me, we just don't know right now. i'll say this. the one thing i found most interesting today is that large cap tech followed through like crazy. >> yes. >> you just mentioned the dow, you know, closed unchanged, you know, we had the russell that closed down a little bit, the equal weight s&p that closed basically unchanged, that's interesting to me. on the flip side of hat, j jpmorgan gave up almost a half

of that sort of move today, so, i want to look at some of those gaps and if they start to get refilled. with that being said, jpmorgan got back to that breakout level, people would buy it. >> is tech really the winner here? what roiled us in august? what happened in august? the unwind of the carry trade. >> right. >> for a day. >> trump administration has seen the dollar strong, dollar strength, and so, therefore, what can happen again? >> it's interesting you say that. i don't want to get bogged down, but he was -- in my lifetime, the only president that actually openly talked about the want for a weaker u.s. dollar. now, he talks about the strength of the u.s. economy, but he's always been fast to say the dollar's too strong. so, it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out. and that dove tails probably nicely with his want for interest rates to be lower, despite everything that we talk about here. >> to your point, though, i mean, if we do see tariffs, right, and we do -- then i think the strong dollar is what he could end up with, it's not what he wants, but that's what he

could end up with. i i don't know how it's going to shake out, but -- i don't know, it's going to be -- some wild things are going to happen. >> for more on what fed policy could look like under a trump administration, brian gardner joins us now on-set. brian, great to have you here in person. >> thanks, melissa. >> especially election week. >> fun week. >> there is a lot that we don't know, in terms of fed policy, that will depend on what trump does. immediately, what's the first thing you're looking for him to do? will it be tariffs? tariffs and immigration. right. what can you do first? the administration can act first. congress, tax cuts, tax extensions, going to take longer. so, it's immigration. i don't think he can do mass deportations. and i'm not talking from a legal standpoint, i'm talking about a logistic standpoint. we don't have the infrastructure in this country to go around and massively round up people that shouldn't be here and where do you put them and how do you get them out? so, i think that's going to be a little bit more for show

i think the tariffs are going to happen relatively quickly, they've already been through this exercise once. they have a good idea of where they want to go. and so, i think tariffs are one of the leading items. >> i mean, middle class workers, that is his core. >> that's the core. that's the base. >> and tariffs will definitely hurt this particular group of people. >> they don't see it that way. that's the issue. >> they're willing to stomach a 33% rise in toys ahead of christmas -- >> this is the issue that has gone on through the campaign. the great debate. you know, what's the state of the economy? and every economist you'll talk to says the economy's great. and the trump base and people that weren't part of the base that voted for him, said not so much. so, there is a disconnect between the economics and the perception of what it means for voters and workers, so, i think these workers are -- you know, they are buying into the narrative, and i'm not saying they're right or not, but they're buying into the narrative, going back for 30

years now, that nafta and other trade agreements have robbed u.s. jobs. and so, they're fine with it. >> he is also a president who watches the stock market very closely. and the reaction to tariffs would be negative, and so, i'm wondering how you sort of square that with also his historic -- his mandate that he's gotten in terms of the popular vote, in terms of a sweep, which could embolden him to be very -- go out there in terms of the tariffs. >> i think he was emboldened by the market yesterday. i mean, the market reaction, i think, xeemds what a lot of people were expecting. and so, i think he said, hyey, i'm validated. the market knows what i'm going to do, i can do it. now only did i win, not only did i win the popular vote, i may have a majority vote. >> yeah. >> and so, that is just steamrolling into the idea in his head that he has a mandate and is going ahead. >> you heard fed powell address

the nature of being fired. >> not permitted under the law. >> i don't know if it's entirely true. >> i think it is true. >> okay, doesn't -- with that said, how important is this role going to be? president-elect trump clearly wants rates to be lower. >> the interesting thing is, now, i mean, we talk about fed independence, because trump is coming in and said he's not going to reappoint powell, and he's even talked about firing him, powell is more independent than ever. so, i think for the next year, powell is quite emboldened. he knows he's not getting a third term, and so, he's not constrained by the political realities of trying to get another nomination and trying to get through the senate. so, for the next year, it's what powell wants the board and the fomc to do. >> brian, i just said i'm not good at math, i think i'm okay with math. let's talk about the undocumented workers and mass deportation. you know, i think there's some estimates it might cost $20,000 to deport one worker, okay?

one illegal alien. do the math. i mean, if they're going to do a million, that's $20 billion, i mean, so, think about it. you're talking about logistics, the cost associated with that, and then you think about what it does to the economy. this could be a disaster, especially coupled with a trade war with increased tariffs. think about that, i'm just curious -- help us with that. >> for strips that rely on lower skill workers, because these are not high skill workers. i don't mean to be crass about it, but they're not. so, for industries that rely on lower skill workers, it's highly disruptive. you know, you went through the math on the budget impact. just the logistics of -- of rounding those people up, and you just can't fly them across a border or bus them to a border, you're going to have to house them for some period of time -- it's a logistical operational nightmare. it's something that the federal government really is pretty bad at. and so -- and i suspect that behind the bluster and behind the rhetoric, that there are people close to trump, and maybe

trump himself, that realize -- this is a longer term issue that they have -- that it's not going to be resolveed in the first 100 days. the first six months, the first year of an administration. it didn't happen overnight, it's not going to be resolved overnight. >> brian, thank you for stopping by. >> thank you for having me. >> how do you factor all this in, michael? >> i thought brian's point on sort of the perception about nafta and globalization is a really interesting one, because we've been talking for quite some time that actually it's deglobalization is going to lead to longer term secular inflation pressures. i think that's fairly lost on the current -- incoming administration, and so, that goes to what i mentioned earlier, that you've got a situation where you've got secular pressures of inflation going higher at the same time you have cyclical pressures with tariffs and the strong growth environment, and that just can't great for yields. necessarily. it could be great for sort of small caps, you know, companies

that are really sensitive to strong economic growth, and onshoring, those are the types of companies that are going to do really well in that regime, and a lot of others may be left off. a record day for nvidia as it gets ready to enter the dow tomorrow. the stock is up 10% since last friday's announcement. the company replaces intel, which ends a 25-year run in the index. sherwin-williams will replace dow inc. what do you make of this run in nvi nvidia? >> i don't think it's dow-related. i think because the amount of money that tracks the dow, it is just the, i mean, the torch has been passed awhile now already, from intel to nvidia. actually, when amd was the little, you know, also-ran, because you need to have two suppliers just in case, that torched past and now another one, so, i don't think that's so much, but i do think this sort of animal spirits, and, you know, all of the commentary around a.i. has been full steam

ahead. when you look at amazon and meta, talking about it -- and tesla, even. full steam ahead. >> november 20th, i mean, that's -- not a lot happens now as we get closer to thanksgiving. november 20th is the day that everybody is going to be watching, because they report earnings. that june 20th reversal, we talked about that actually working. you saw where the stock was trading on august 5th. we've taken that out. there's another day like that coming on the horizon. >> what i find interesting is that microsoft has not really participated a whole lot. it was july when the stock topped out, so, it's, you know, down 9% or so. look at super micro, that was, what, third, fourth largest customer of nvidia. microsoft, they told us what their capex is, but i think about it through the lens of the way investors are seeing this trade play out and maybe you see less demand and then you'll see less demand for chips, so, when you have this sort of issue with your big customers, it makes me less enthusiastic about nvidia that keeps going higher every day, so, you know, again, that's probably not surprising coming

from me, but it doesn't seem there's a heck of a lot of caution as it relates to this name. coming up, from evs to capris, we've got our eyes on all the stocks reporting earnings after hours. we're digging into the moves starting with rivian. and speaking of results, shares of zillow surging on the back of their q-3 report. where it is seeing growth and how our traders are handling the move. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." ev maker rivian higher after posting a wider than expected quarterly loss. phil lebeau has been speaking with the ceo just in the last hour. he has the very latest on this quarter. phil? >> hey, melissa. we're 20 minutes into the rivian earnings call. and there are questions about what happened last quarter. as you mentioned, they missed on the top and the bottom line. here are the numbers in terms of the loss per share, as well as the revenue, coming in light of expectation. and the loss per vehicle. it widen out by almost $9,000. rj explained to us last hour what happened last quarter. >> we just made a big changeover

to our second generation of our r-1 vehicle, and so, there was a lot of costs associated with changing out roughly half of the building materials, as measured by cost, and so, as we brought in new suppliers, that's expenses associated with that. we had a supply chain shortage as part of this ramp up and that really hurt us in terms of our overall output in terms of fixed costs. >> all right, so, why would the stock be up, given the fact that they also made their expected loss for the full year wider than previously expected snl they have affirmed their plans to be gross profit positive in the fourth quarter and they are on track to close the volkswagen joint venture this quarter. that will free up some of the $5 billion that is going to be coming to the company. as you look at shares of rivian over the last year, one last thing, melissa. rj says they are on track to begin r-2 production in 2026. they have the capital that they need to get there.

melissa, back to you. >> phil, i'm just curious, didn't they cut their output forecast just in october and they cited part shortages? >> they did. >> so, it's a continuation, it's a worsening of that? in just a month? >> it's the same -- it's one component, i talked to them about this, he said, we're working with a supplier. not a situation with a bad relationship, they're struggling to get this one component, which is critical to their motor, and he believes that they are in position to lower their costs by 20%. the physical cost of goods in the fourth quarter, that's one reason why they say they will be positive gross profit in the fourth quarter. >> what happens to sales if the ev incentive goes away? >> he's pretty confident that they still will be able to make it to r-2 production, that they have enough liquidity, it's $8.1 billion. remember, they have $4 billion coming from the joint venture

with volkswagen. and that is a vehicle, melissa, that as of right now, they plan to sell for less than $50,000, that's the sweet spot of the market that everybody's trying to get to. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau. again, that conference call is under way. 26 minutes in. guy, what's the trade here? >> well, it bounces, i get it, stock has been off. at least they have cash on the balance sheet. don't have to worry about that. maybe at $10 a share it's worth a play on the long side. if you look at it, you don't want to own it, maybe trade it. i'll say this. i don't know how they get to those numbers, maybe it's regulatory credits. the math doesn't add up. but i think the market is trying to glean something from that. >> yeah, i mean, that answer seemed very muskian, right? if you think about it. about what's going on there. but i look at this car, it's a good car, and, you know, it doesn't have all the baggage of a tesla. when i say that, that's true, right? i look at the price point on this r-1t, it's about the same

as the deplore-ian. >> that was not a slip, dan. >> oh. >> anyway. >> google it, kids. i don't know, if they could get some of the supply chain issues -- i mean, we need to have second sources. detroit has basically gone all-in on plug-in evs, you know what i mean? i think this is an interesting sort of company, and it's an interesting-looking car. >> all right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come, here's what's coming up next. home is where the gains are. shares of zillow surging on the back of strong results. why one of our traders says the earnings call was extraordinary, and how their stocks jumped. plus, super micro's worries grow. the warning signs hiding in plain sight, and how a.i. helped ring the alarm bells. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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its new ceo took over in august. karen, you went through the conference call. >> yes. >> what stood out to you? >> oh, my god. a lot to love. just remember the backdrop of not huge home sales, right? and in that backdrop, they were able to beat on so many metrics, and really gain market share of the business, right? their percentage growth well outdoes the business. they have so many great things to this fly wheel of just wanting to be in the center of every transaction, whether it's a listing, a high profile listing, whether it's getting the good agents and then they have a flex deal where you can -- they can get a different cut, and then you have this -- all this software that helps agents do a great job, you know, and follow up, it helps them, you know, stay on top of what's going on in the transaction, if there is one, and mortgages. and -- so a lot of great things are happening all at the same time. and the rental business, which is mostly -- the best part is

multifamily homes, they talk about that as a billion dollar opportunity. that's been great, while the existing -- >> a billion dollar opportunity, meaning the rental business is right now just scratching the surface? >> there's a lot of room to run, right. the mortgage business, which was up big percentage, but not huge dollars, they're just getting into every part of the transaction. and what happens if you get a -- if you get rates lower and existing home sales come on the market? >> right. >> and so, this sort of asset-light, but you know, software-heavy, i mean, the margins could be great. so, a lot -- a lot to love here. maybe a little bit -- got a little bit ahead of itself, but it was really an outstanding call. >> in michael's and your scenario, mortgage rates do not go lower. >> yes, they go higher. and we've had that conversation. but even under that scenario, given what karen just talked about, operating margins were 260 basis points better than the street was looking for, and that rental revenue has now doubled

in the last 2 1/2 years, probably doubles again. so, there's room there. and i will tell you, if you look at a chart, not that it matters, but the stock is half of what it was three years ago. it could trade back to $95 in this environment, and still be sort of attractive, so, i think karen should probably stick with this one. >> did they talk about mortgage rate sensitivity? did they see a 50-basis point drop in mortgage rates or 6% is a magic number for them or what not? >> no, they didn't. i did get a drink in the middle, so -- >> ah. >> unless they did it then, but no. coming up, the rise and fall of super micro. the red flags that may have been hiding in plain sight and how a.i. helped the discover the risks. more next. plus, tapestry topping earnings expectations. is there a chance the deal with capri gets revived with a new administration? that's next. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go.

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welcome back to "fast money." super micro up 12% today, but still struggling to bounce back from a series of accounting issues. the company giving disappointed,

unaudited financials this week after its financial department resigned. hudson labs is here. your company first sniffed out problems at super micro in 2022. this is a face scinating story the stock market and the hottest, with a.i. tell us what your large language model does. >> yeah, so, as a financial a.i. platform, one of many things we do is look at the concentration of related party risk across all u.s. issuers. if you think about related party trans actions and other types of forensic risks, it's an incredible application for a.i., because it's unstructured data, it takes a lot of time to dig through all of that, but also, there's a lot of noise, and that's one of our biggest

contributions to the space, is getting rid of boilerplate, finding the signal versus the noise. but because of that, we have a related party concentration risk screen, where super micro was one of the highest risk companies, and simultaneously was ranked quite high on our other forensic risks. >> so, this screen is a result of going through hundreds of thousands of s.e.c. filings? because that is time consuming. nobody wants to go through one, let alone 800,000 a year. >> exactly. and in a situation like related party risk, a lot of related party disclosure is meaningless, boring, and not material. so, if you are trying to do that using a key word search, it's going to give you mostly information that's irrelevant, which is why you need a more specialized model that understand content, context, et cetera. >> so, this screen, which flagged super micro, the related party risk, it flagged the ties

that super micro had with able com, as well as compuware. and able com, there are people who are deep into this story, but able com's ceo is the brother of the founder and ceo of super micro. so, there are strange types there. >> yeah, super micro was flagged on multiple screens. the most interesting one was the related party concentration risk, because it was one of the highest risk companies for that risk category, and you're right, it was very unusual web of family relationships with both able com, compuware, and also int interesting, the terms of those relationships. they were very clearly not commercially normal, at least from where i'm sitting. one example is, they were selling into compuware at below market prices. that's all available on the public record, and i think -- one of many things that was

ab abnormal about the relationships. >> so, thanks for coming on. really interesting what you do. i'm wondering, so, related party, that seems like a fruitful place, but what about things like channel stuffing and, you know, inventory, things like that, is it -- can you do it, as well, with those kind of, i guess, i don't know, those are the key worldkeywords? >> that's what's so interesting about both the compu ware and the able com transactions. they are set up in such a way, when i look at it, it almost looks like it's inviting both roundtripping and channel stuffing. compuware is a manufacturer and a distributor, so, they are coming in in two different ways, for both able com and compuware, there's the option to ship on consignment versus sale. there's a lot of discretion, when you look at the details of those transactions, which would, to me, as an ex-cpa, raise

questions about, is there an opportunity -- there's absolutely an opportunity for roundtripping and channel stuffing. whether or not it was in fact happening remains an open question, but the fact they were doing it in the past and settled with the s.e.c. for these types of issue does increase the risk. >> i'm asking this question hoping you know the answer, because i'm not looking to tee you up. you have pra calculator, anythi over 70 raises your antenna. how many times have you got a reading north of 70 and then equated with a stock falling out of bed, being able to short the stock based on that score and been successful? >> we have some great back testing on our website, but you know, it's very highly used by people who are actively looking for short ideas. which speaks to its accuracy, also highly correlated not just with price collapse, but also

things like class action litigation, but really what we're testing against is, does this relate in s.e.c. e enforcement action in the next three years, and that's how we evaluate efficacy. >> any companies you're going to unveil in terms of landing that north of 70 score? >> ah -- if you'd like to know more about which companies are high risk, i suggest becoming a hudson labs subscriber. but i do want to just give a teaser that there is -- you know, at least one other company on my radar with similar related party risk profile to what we've seen at super micro and in the bio tech space. >> interesting. kris, thank you. we hope you come back. >> thank you. >> this is a really interesting application. in many ways, but also in terms of the application of a.i. we talk about in terms of a chatgpt, asking it to write you an essay, but this is useful information. >> again, this is the sort of stuff that's been going on in

markets for a long time. it's not generative a.i., it's a.i., it's machine learning, it's structuring unstructured data. you can seal a scenario where it does become generative and it starts buying or selling stocks off this sort of thing, so, that's coming to a theater near you, i suspect. coming up, capri on the move. could its deal with tapestry come back from the dead in a new administration? what's next for these luxury fashionistas? back in two. ugh. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. [child laughing] (♪♪) (♪♪) [child giggling with delight] (♪♪) come on you two. dinner time. ♪ ooooh. ooooh. ♪

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we've got breaking news on the next administration. president-elect trump announcing susan wiles will be white house chief of staff. she would be the first female chief of staff in history. this was largely expected, in terms of this particular appointment. it will be interesting, of course, to see who he appoints to things like treasury secondary, which will be key, labor, commcommerce, et cetera. capri holdings and tapestry moving on hopes that the next president's policies could revive merger talks. courtney reagan has all the latest. >> we just heard from capri after the bell. fairly slim release. they're going through this deal, or are they? we'll talk about that in a second.

capri actually missing on the top and bottom line. they are not giving guidance, they're not holding a conference call while this deal is in the litigation process. that's opposite from what we heard from tapestry, which actually beat expectations for the top and bottom line. president up a really impressive gross margin of over 75%. they also increased their guidance for the full year, in their fiscal first quarter. it's the first time they've raised their full-year guidance in the fiscal first quarter, in three years. they talked about coach brand driving the newness, so, got a lot of detail there, and really weren't disappointed about t the -- what they've seen around the world, when it comes to this higher end consumer, where as capri's john idle, the ceo there, pointed out what he calls sort of weakness in the softening demand globally for fashion lucky goods, but that's not at all what tapestry saw. so, i think what's interesting here is, this deal was blocked by the courts, or the ftc blocked it and the courts said, yes, we agree with that. they're going through the appeals process, so, both companies are not going to say anything more.

they said, that's part of the merger agreement is to go through the appeals process. if you look at it, i don't know. capri didn't have a great quarter, tapestry had a really good quarter. stocks are moving in opposite directions. maybe it's a blessing in d disguise. i don't think that this new administration really revives it, because that was in the court's hands, it's no longer in the hands of the ftc. >> yeah, yeah. i think that sigh of relief we saw on that court decision in terms of, oh, great for tapestry. they don't want that asset. >> also, though, i think the merger agreement ends february 10th, if i'm not mistaken, unless there is some court movement before that, and i think that's kind of getting to be unlikely. >> i think so, too. they won't give us any further details of exactly what's going on, but they sort of said, we're following what we need to for the contract, we're going through the motions. and then tapestry also said, look, we -- there's no more short-term m&a on the horizon, if the deal doesn't go through and we plan to buy back shares,

if this deal doesn't work and they've got, what $7.3 billion in cash on the books. >> courtney, thank you. courtney reagan. we have a news alert here on active wear ceo vuori. they will allow shales of share at $5.5 pl billion. maybe it's no surprise it increased in value here. just talked to the ceo. >> told a great story. you asked for tough on live tv. >> he basically smacked me down, he's like, no, we're not doing that. >> again, not that it's -- i think right now, as we're sitting here, lululemon is a $40 billion valuation. that's one of the comps. so, this actually makes sense. good for them, they're building a great business. they're doing a great job being disciplined, and this is a good opportunity for people to make some dollars on the back of it. >> yeah, it is really interesting. they've grown a ton. >> yeah. >> since that earlier round, $4

billion, however, money was free then, and valuations were insane and i think they've changed a lot, but still, a really compelling story. congmi up, bloc, affirm, draftkings, airbnb and pinterest on the move. we have the details on those quarters when "fast money" returns. there are some feelings you can get with any sportsbook. ohhh! the highs!

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welcome back to "fast money." a ton of afterhours action. pinterest with double digit losses. air bbnb shares down 3%. draftkings dropping after posting a bigger loss than expected. and bloc ak and affirm both low after their results. karen, which one attracts you? >> pinterest. that's not the right word, attract? i don't know. i guess it was the guidance that wasn't so great. i -- i always think of pinterest, i don't know, the way guy does, you know, for decorating and home things like that and i'm just wondering if the slower, you know, existing home sales, re-fi, whatever, maybe that's part of it. but i always come to this when i look at pinterest or snap or whatever, why would you own that when you could own meta? >> right. yeah. >> i know they can grow faster,

pinterest, but -- to me, the -- the valuation is so compelling in meta. >> guy uses it for style and classic rock. >> i don't know if our crack staff can do this on the fly, i have a great page. >> which you haven't touched in -- a decade, i think. karen's on -- look at that. that's dan, that's karen. >> that's dan with the hair. >> that's melissa lee. >> that's like five head shots ago. >> hawaiian tropic. i don't know why that's on there. >> was that the year you did the ironman? >> i don't know. >> really quickly, this stock over the last year has had two gaps lower, two gaps higher on average, about 15%. i know you don't like companies that you don't think they should be giving guidance. this company doesn't seem to have a ton of visibility on their business. >> yeah. >> i just don't think any company should give guidance. who knows? >> they should know. they should know. >> yes. no, i think there's -- >> you have bookses sings -- t should know.

why would -- why you are against investors having less transz part si? >> because i think it forces companies to focus on -- what are we going to tell the street and how wdoe manage the street instead of spending time on, let's run our business as well as we can. >> we have to go. >> i disagree with both of you. >> i disagree with both of you. >> up next, final trades. one ls as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

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time for the final trade. michael? >> we've been pretty positive on rebuilding the american capital stock, about continue to look, especially after the election results. long mid cap companies. >> michael, great to you have. karen? >> yes, so, zillow. i love the call, i love so much about it, but i wouldn't jump in right here. let it settle down. >> dan? >> yeah, some of the ev stuff

doesn't seem that interesting. maybe byd in china does. >> guy? >> hudson lab's web better be up, they're going to get u.n. dated. >> fascinating story. >> i don't have a x in my clam, but it would be exxonmobil. >> you might want g ttoethat looked at. >> thanks right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to levelthe playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. to explain how we can keep going up like this. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. where, i ask. where are the sellers? where did they go? for years every time w