bank in montana. >> good stuff. >> bitcoin etf. i think institutional ownership and sentiment. >> jen in >> financials. we articulated that. >> cma group. they're printing money, and we think they'll be a special dividend. >> that does it for us. "the exchange" is right now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead as we close out this crazy week. what a week it's been, the dow hitting 44,000. this is the best week in a year after trump's election win. the s&p hitting 6,000 moments ago, and the nasdaq yesterday closing above 19,000 for the first time. the small caps are up 10%. our next guest says momentum rules. we'll ask him for how much longer and how to ride it. that brings us to this chart, the key catalyst our strategist is watching.

he expects that to happen under trump. he'll tell us what it is, when he thinks it will happen and where in the world he'll with buying. a special "three buys and a bail" election edition, including one name in energy. you're looking at it. the name ahead. two mystery charts and two opportunities to send me those guesses. let's start with the markets and mike santoli is here to round up this week. mike? >> yes, kelly. round up of the round numbers, right? we have the 44,000, 6,000 in the s&p. it's fun when we hit those landmarks around the same time. here's the two-year of the s&p 500. obviously, what we have seen in the past week is a stark acceleration of an entrenched trend. that vertical move on the end of the chart is going to be visible on this thing for a long time to come. that being said, you know, i keep pointing out we're pretty much at the upper end of the trend path that we've been here.

overbought means strong, momentum is engrained. but you have to leave yourself unsurprised if we back off here and take a breather. of course, we had that burst in small caps. here's the russell 2,000. this is small cap, cyclical against mega cap growth stock driven. this is like a 20-point spread back in july. it had been kind of getting off the mat for a while after we got clearance the fed would be cutting into a resilient economy. of course, you have the trump policy mix coming in, as well. what happened? the volatility is basically just deflated. all of the tension has been released out of this market. what's interesting here, down to around longer term average in a bull market of 14, 15, all this gain into the mid to low 20s was essentially happening as the s&p 500 was hitting record highs. that's unusual. it shows you the short-term

concentrated risk against an unclear election result, and that did not happen. we've seen gold back off very sharply, which showed its hand as to why it was up there, kelly. >> mike, what do you make -- i want to talk with our lovely panel about this. what do you make of the total return idea here, and not just the price return with the dow and s&p? it makes sense, right? investors cap chup the total return, and the dow on total return is at 109,000. >> sure. if you are talking about the investors' experience and how to rebalance, a total return is obviously what matters. in fact, i was just looking -- i was going to have this chart later, that the 64/40 portfolio, the total return got to a record high again after the bear market in stocks and bonds in 2022 earlier this year. we just now have gotten to the price return record. >> wow. >> of that 60/40 portfolio.

>> so dow total return is up 30% this year. so as good as it's been, it doesn't capture how good it's been. >> here's the question, you have very low initial dividend yields in the indexes, if you're buying at today's prices. so that's going to be a little bit of a tougher road. dividend growth, strategies, some people have been making the case, that's why it makes sense to help cushion that return. >> michael, thanks. mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. and my next guest says what we're seeing in markets is a reminder that momentum rules. the question is for how long and what could derail it. let's bring in steve. total return versus price return? >> i've been harping the dividend trade for months. get involved in dividends because it helps your return. that's a big part of it. the dividend yields are lower because the prices are higher. >> but i think the point is that -- let's say you're in the

s&p 500, and you're -- this is important for people who have active managers, because they're not performing on a price return basis, but you have to have the total return to see if they are. so without trying to adopt a dividend strategy, a lot of investors are doing much better than the index says this year. >> absolutely. a lot of the hottest stocks have been your best performing stocks. so somebody who just basically put it all in nvidia at the start of the year is outperforming everybody. so it really depends so much on your stock selection and your balance. you can't always outguess these things. ge, with 20/20 hindsight, i wish i had put it in nvidia myself. >> there's always going to be something where you kick yourself. but i saw a tweet the other day and the guy said, why have i been wasting my time on uk small cap stock picking if i could have been in the s&p since 2000?

>> nobody wants to miss this rally. that's why we see dip buying, you know, even the slightest dip, and we see rally chasing. that's where the momentum is coming from. nobody wants to miss it, and quite frankly, if something is working for people, they're going to keep doing it, and it's been working. the question, is at some point this stops working when and what will be the signal. >> i notice dennis said yeah, i'm not short thing market anymore. so let's spin this forward, forget about 2020. what are the takeaways, the positioning strategies for what the next few months kind of into 2025 can bring? >> it's hard to short this tape, but it's not wrong to take profits. again, it probably -- we probably don't see profit taking until the beginning of the -- the next calendar year, because number one, that's just normal tax strategy. number two, people might be hopeful for improvement on capital gabs rates, so you're

not going to see a lot of that, which keeps the path of the momentum trade in place. tw what could unravel is some sort of concern in the rest of the world what we're doing or the bond market freaking out a little bit. it freaked out a little wednesday and recovered since then. >> dan clifton was making the case for it not freaking out from here. ma the deficit could come in by $300 billion regardless of who takes office. the cbo doesn't have that in the baseline. are there factors that make people think the tlt trade, they're shorting it or it's no longer an obvious thing? >> it's hard to say because we don't know. remember, the tariff policy is one of the things that can spook the bond market, and tariffs don't need to be going through congress. >> i don't follow why. if you increase the cost of one thing, inflation in the entire economy goes up. if the price of shoes from china doubles, then people who don't have more money are just going

to take that spending from somewhere else. on net, that doesn't increase the money supply. >> but what happens if the cost of shoes go up and you need the shoes and you have kids who need shoes, you have to buy them. the cost is going to go up, and that's money you can't spend elsewhere. so it does have a negative effect, either on economic growth, you know, consumer spending, or it has an effect just because prices get raised. i think like the washing machine tariffs. the domestic production hadn't caught up yet, but whirlpool were able to raise their prices. >> when you go back to the first trump administration, by year three they were conduct rates. what happened the last time they slapped tariffs, we didn't see an inflationary economy or the fed having to hike races, we didn't see long yields going up. >> i think also the -- one of the keys here is the

globalization in terms of the tariffs tended to be a bit smaller than what we're hearing about now. this is the problem, why momentum is sort of working, because there isn't necessarily anything to upset this. we're talking about is all speculative. you could get a freakout from foreigners not wanting to buy our debt, et cetera, et cetera, but what we're talking about is hypotheticals, which is why people in trading mode are just sort of sticking to the here and now. >> absolutely. the last question i ask is the party popper question of, is it too good? you know, is it 1999 and greenspan is cutting rates because of ltcm but we have liquidity taking off and stocks are off to the races, and with nvidia now the biggest market cap stock at $3.6 trillion, is there an idea with the fed cutting rates as well this week that this is too much liquidity? >> i've been on the side of why are we doing this? because corporate bond spreads

are very tight. nobody is complaining about borrowing money. there's speculative investments, and the spooky thing is, intel went into the dow in october of 1999. >> interesting. >> only to be replaced by nvidia now. that's just a freaky coincidence, but yeah, history doesn't always repeat but sometimes it rhymes. >> so you're staying long generally speaking, and nothing too tactical until we get more clarity? >> this is a tape really hard to fight, even if it's expensive. >> steve, thank you so much. speaking of china, they are c shelling out nearly $1.5 trillion to tackle local government debt problems. eunice has more. hi, eunice. >> reporter: well, that $1.4 trillion is supposed to be stimulus, but it's not stimulus in the traditional sense in that it's not being used to stimulate demand. so 60% of it has been allocated

to a program for local governments to issue new bonds over three years, including this year, to pay off what the government calls as hidden debt. so this is debt that's off balance sheet or unrecognized, which has been a primary source of risk in this economy. so in addition to that, local governments will be allowed to issue more special bonds over five years to raise funds for the same purpose. the stimulus is indirect. so the finance minister said that $85 billion over five years would be freed up because of this refinancing of the debt. that local governments would be able to spend. the finance minister also added that new measures would promote state purchases to buy idle land and unsold homes, so that in theory, would help the property sector. but there's nothing in this plan that directly helps and gets money into the hands of consumers and companies to stimulate demand.

>> eunice, the question of tariffs that we were just discussing over here, people are worried about inflation or what that could do to consumer spending power, how do we expect that to factor into a stimulus policy that could be coming out of china? >> reporter: in the runup to this announcement, there was an expectation that this stimulus would be bigger under a trump win. just to offset exactly what you said, the potential of, say, 60% tariffs that the president-elect trump will impose. that didn't happen, and so the thinking now is that the government is maybe trying to keep some of its powder dry and wait to see what happens next. in fact, the finance minister said that the policymakers were open to the idea of a larger fiscal deficit next year. so that suggests that we might see more stimulus next year. >> all right, eunice for now, thanks, again, with a lot of chinese enthusiasm, i should say

stock enthusiasm for chinese stocks. my next guest says investing oversaying, including china, will depend on the direction of the u.s. dollar, which he expects to fall during the trump administration. walk us through this, marco, and welcome. >> thank you for having me. if you think about the last four years and the pillars of american outperformance, certainly it had to do with innovation, technology, ai, the good stuff. but there were also two other reasons the u.s. economy has outperformed. one was unchecked migration, and the other was fiscal policy. no matter who won this election, but in particular with president trump, both of those are slated to end, or at least to have a negative second derivative. in case of migration, that's clearly going to be checked. when it comes to fiscal policy, i think the bond market reaction ahead of the election is going to be a significant constraint

and further growth legacy. so that takes away the two reasons the u.s. outperformed the rest of the world by such a wide margin over the last four years, which will allow growth differentials, particularly if this fiscal stimulus in china does continue to add to growth in china, the growth differentials will start favoring some non-u.s. currencies. >> what did the dollar do during his first term? i'm not going to belabor the prepandemic from post pandemic economy, but what did the dollar do the first time around? >> i think your question is extremely co-gent, whether it's pre-or post pandemic, particularly because of questioning how much tariffs matter. i don't think that trump will wage that much of a significant trade war with china. it's not something he campaigned on, in fact. and most of the numbers that are being thrown around by the media

and us in finance are really based on just speculation. in fact, for the past six months, we've been talking about raising tariffs on dollar companies to bring them to the u.s. that's a much different thing. so what the dollar did is it went down significantly in 2017 when the u.s. was fiscally stimulating, which is likely going to continue to some extent, but not as much as the last four years. and can the trade wars, everyone saw this huge upswing in the dollar in 2018. i think a lot of investors have, in a knee jerk way, bit off the price of the dollar expecting tariffs will help the dollar. i don't think tariffs help currencies, and i don't think there will be that significant of a tariff attack on china. >> we just showed that chart where you see that upward move in the dollar, so you think it could be different. you think maybe we're going to target companies more so than countries, is that right? >> yeah, so i mean, that's not

that i think this, it's just that president trump has been literally saying this, just nobody wants to actually listen to what he's saying. this constant push and pull where he says i'm going to force byd, i'm going to force john deere, indiscriminate, i'm going to force them to move their production to the u.s., and everybody keeps asking him about 60% tariffs against china. he hasn't talked about that for six months. it's all been about moving production to the u.s. this is a significant shift in what the focus of the trade war would be. >> part of this, marco, people will resist is the idea of buying international stocks. there have been a lot of times going back 25 years when it's been important to do that to make sure you avoid drawdowns. but the u.s. continues to increase its share of global market cap. your's a mess. there's not a lot of places where you feel like you're going to get a better return on

investment. >> i think currencies are very, very important motivators for that shift. so if you're denominated in u.s. dollars, you're not going to care necessarily. if you're denominated in other currencies, you care about what the dollar is doing. central banks and emerging markets can get a pretty virtuous cycle if the dollar declines because they can cut rates domestically as their inflation abates. and i think the most important thing is that a lot of the other assets are priced for imperfection. you know, everybody thinks europe is a mess. everybody thinks that china is going to fumble on the fiscal stimulus. so all they need to do is -- you know, the policymakers are going to put a bottom in growth, that there is a modicum of growth prospects, and given the valuation difference in the u.s., these markets are going to do fine. whereas, your previous guest pointed out, the u.s. is very expensive. it's priced for perfection.

in other words, everything has to line up just right. and if you're a long-term investor on a two or five-year time prize, and i think these things matter. >> i take your point about shifts that we could have, and i can imagine, you know, big traders being able to really catch these inflection points. but 12 years ago, when the per capita gdp difference even between the u.s. and canada, the differentials that have widened between us and other developed countries are only growing. so it feels confident about putting capital there for the long run. >> why, because we're better at innovating and technology or because we had unchecked migration, and massive fiscal stimulus we have to pay for? that's the real key point, what you just said. gdp per capita has shot through the roof in the united states, but i think that the pillars of that outperformance are policy decisions made over the last four and six years. i think that gravy train is

ending. it would have ended, even if harris had won the presidency. she would have been checked by republicans in congress. by the way, trump's advisers are wall street veterans, they're thinking about this too. they're going to have to modify that fiscal thrust. so on that trajectory, when you think about it that way, the pillars of american outperformance are not necessarily that america is inherently better. we've just -- >> listen, it is in part true, but if migration were a big part of this, germany would be doing great right now. if you put migration to the side and it helps on the margin, but that doesn't explain why our differential is so much different than other countries that have had migration. >> we've had a massive influx,

and on fiscal policy, we're above and beyond the top -- >> agreed. but the message from all of that is, the u.s. did a fiscal check, other places tried to do other labor market incentives and what not. however that panned out, the trend of u.s. outperformance goes way back than just the four years, we're talking 15, 20 years that this has been building. >> but then again, in the early 2000s, that didn't happen. so i think that we have to ask ourselves what kind of a world are we going to live in? i think that there are some big shifts going on that do benefit places like more cap ex driven economies. so de-risking from china is a very, very, you know, difficult and painful and expensive endeavor that's going to help industrials and other sectors much as that. similarly, climate change is a very cap ex driven effort. so when you think about that, if

that continues for the next four years, that actually benefits sectors in the u.s. that would participate in that. but europe and japan tend to be more overweight to those cap ex endeavors. so it's also what kind of world do you think we live in? for 12 years, for much of that, low growth, disinflationary world benefited tech. >> yeah, and there's not a lot of other sectors -- maybe we're harping on europe too much, because japan is super interesting. there's a lot of things that look like they could outperform. >> i'm sorry, but i think europe is way too hated. europe is about to be drowned in cheap energy, because lng producers have made a huge mistake. there's a massive amount of supply coming online, so the valuations in europe are suppressed for two reasons. the war in ukraine, which trump is supposedly going to end.

and then the fact that there is this perception that europe cannot get over its energy problems, which is a mistake. >> where is the lng coming from? the cost of energy in europe is much higher than the u.s., but we have the lng. where are they going to get it from, us? >> no, not at all. it's qatar, bringing online way touch much for the demand. canada, you have russia, which is starting to participate in the lng supply game, because a lot of their gas is anchored. there's a lot. and australia already brought online massive over the last five, ten years. so we've overbuilt supply. there's not enough demand. japan's restarted its nuclear power plants. so europe will be awash with cheap energy. >> that would be a bullish story, for sure. marco, thank you. and still to come, let's get

more controversial. the private prison stocks are soaring this week as the election outcome lifts the so-called trump trade. the president-elect telling nbc there is no price tag on his massive deportation plan. we'll tell you why these two names could be some of the biggest beneficiaries, and a look at one area of clean energy bucking this week's downward trend. restaurants underperforming the market this year, but one analyst says hope is on the horizon. we'll look at the trends and how to play them. "the exchange" is back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. (cheerful music) (phone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab

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welcome back to "the exchange." from prisons to nuclear, we're tracking wall street's biggest winners following president-elect trump's victory. nuclear is surprisingly on the list. eamon joins us with pippa stevens covering the energy trades. eamon, kick it off. >> one of the biggest winners on wall street is a boca raton private prison company, that is poised to benefit from massive federal arrests of immigrants. geogroup shares skyrocketed after the election as president-elect trump told nbc's kristen welker that there is no price tag on how much the government will spend to deport migrants. the company reported earnings yesterday of 21 cents per share.

the company's executive chairman stressed that the trump administration opportunities are enormous to investors, saying the election is an unprecedented opportunity to help achieve what he called a much more aggressive immigration policy. the company also said it has slack capacity of 10,000 beds at six currently idle facilities from texas to new jersey. geopolitical group maxed out contributions to trump's campaign and hosted events at trump's properties in the past. the company already has contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars with the department of justice and the department of homeland security. but all that has not been without controversy. this summer, new jersey democratic senator cory booker protested a potential contract with the company saying it has a documented history of human rights abuses.

a spokesperson from geogroup did not respond for our request for comment. >> those of us who covered these cycles for a long time, i believe geogroup had a big runup the first time trump was elected. i'm curious if we see a similar pattern, no matter what the business boost is, what is the stock now pricing in? >> the real question here, and that's unknown, is how big trump wants to go in terms of detaining migrants, how many millions of people are we talking about here? and then how long do they need to be detained? if you put migrants into camps, you have to figure out how many migrants. one of the big unknowns here is whether countries in central and south america will accept migrants back from the united states, and how much of a fight that will be diplomatically. that's correct mean people living in these detention facilities for some length of time. and for a company like geogroup,

that means an enormous amount of profit. all of that is tbd for right. investors are betting on the idea that trump will do this to some degree. >> thank you very much. meantime, nuclear is holding up better than the rest of clean energy this week. pippa stevens is here with a closer look. it's no longer a democratic trade. >> that's right. you heard from president-elect donald trump that he wants to drill, baby, drill, but it's unclear if oil executives want to increase oil production while president trump says he wants to gut the "inflation reduction act." so nuclear could be the biggest beneficiary. trump has called the industry great on multiple occasions and talked about the upside from small, modular reactors. the industry has gotten bipartisan support, as you noted, meaning that even if an ax is taken to parts of the

"inflation reduction act" -- given how long it takes to get one of these nuclear reactors off the ground, that could be an upside. we have seen a big response in some nuclear stocks this week, including from these nuclear makers. you can see that wall street has taken note of this trade, because assets in nuclear and uranium etfs are larger. some of the biggest movers this week include these two. we have seen uranium fuels and energy on the move. g and then vistra, that stock is up 250% this year, outperforming even nvidia, the best stock in the s&p 500. we did hear from the company yesterday, and they mentioned that upside from hyperscalers, saying they're in early

discussion about nuclear upgrades. >> so what incentives should we invision? in the past, it would be more of a left leaning regime doing mandates, could it be more carrots than sticks? >> and relaxing some of those environmental mandates for things like approving new reactors at already existing sites. there's a lot of redundant paperwork, so that's one of the areas that could be the easiest. some of these environmental reviews, getting rid of that re redu redundancy. >> paperwork has been filed and that can happen overnight if it got the green light? >> exactly. that process could get kicked into action. there's several across the country, including from dominion. another option is, you know, making existing nuclear reactors that much more effective. we're not talking about a whole new giga watt, but maybe 300

mega watts out of that. so those are the lowest hanging fruits. so the trump administration could turn to things like that to get this off the ground. it debuted as a national security issue. so you need power for the ai. >> pippa, thanks. still to come, amazon is coming off a record high, and now it's reportedly considering a multibillion dollar investment and ai startup anthropic. we'll have the latest and a look at what amazon cldou be getting out of the deal. that's next. hi, i'm damian clark. i'm here to help you understand how to get the most from medicare. if you're eligible for medicare, it's a good idea to have original medicare. it gives you coverage for doctor office visits and hospital stays. but if you want even more benefits, you can choose a medicare

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welcome back to "the exchange." here is your cnbc news update. three people have been charged in alleged murder for hire trump targeting president-elect donald trump in a criminal complaint unsealed today. the justice department said one of the men charged was instructed in september by an unnamed official in iran's revolutionary guard to create a plan to surveil and ultimately assassinate trump. in other news, hurricane rafael is moving west across the gulf of mexico as it threatens dangerous surf and riptides across the whole gulf region. as of this morning, it is a category 3 hurricane with wind

speeds of 120 miles per hour. more than 20% of u.s. oil output in the gulf of mexico has been shut down as a precaution. and building for australia's social media ban on children under the age of 16. the country's states and territories unanimously backed the national plan, that would make social media platforms, including facebook, x, and tiktok, responsible for enforcing the age limit. the platforms have a year to figure out how to exclude children if passed. >> you know, here's what i think about this. i hear from the moms of kids that are older that sometimes they'll go to bed and wake up to 78 text messages with their friends and things like that. while it's good to crack down on social media, we shouldn't pretend social media is the only way which having a phone is creating stress for young people. >> that's a great point. a lot of people say it does create stress for kids, so let's just take care of that, but it's hard to navigate how to do so.

>> or keep going this that direction. thanks for that. gen ai darling anthropic could be nearing a multibillion dollar investment. amazon is in discussions to invest more money into the company. but it may come with a catch. deidre bosa has more in today's "tech check." deidre? >> hey, kelly. so mega cap investments into gen ai darlings always come with strings attached, usually commitments to using their plot infrastructure, access to new tools or preferential access. they serve to not only give a competitive advantage to the investor's ecosystem, but lock in dependencies that influence their strategies. so it's worth asking, what might amazon get out of reupping its investment in anthropic? the answer, or at least what amazon is seeking, is a wider adoption of its homegrown ai chips. a source familiar tells me that

anthropic and openai are always raising money due to the very high operational costs of building foundational models. but the information reports that there's a potential sticking point and a potential deal. anthropic prefers servers, as well as the software that ai developers learned. that is the training stage. the inference phase, though, sources say could be a different story and could be a bigger business. this is where trained models are deployed, and their specialized chips are designed to be most cost effective and more efficient than general purpose gpus. amazon could leverage billions of dollars of investment that anthropic needs to keep up with openai and others. it could use that to not just boost the aws business, but also its ambitions in ai chips. and so, kelly, this could be

sort of another phase or the next phase of these kinds of investments, not just user cloud but user chips also. >> i love watching them scale up in this arms race. deidre bosa, thanks. coming up restaurants broadly are underperform thing year amid a tougher consumer environment, but there's hope on the horizon. if you think you can guess it, tweet me and we'll reveal it on the other side of this break. across global markets, data underpins every decision that is taken. at ice, we provide quality data and analytics across multiple asset classes. from fixed income, energy, commodities and equities, to areas like climate risk and the entire lifecycle of a mortgage. to help inform trade decisions, our pricing and reference data covers millions of instruments. in fixed income, our data can help re-imagine your workflow. in energy, our oil and natural gas data is used by global traders,

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welcome back. as good as this market has been, 2024 has been really challenging for restaurants. but the setup could be better in 2025. barclays sees several catalysts, including the trend of going back to the office, maybe some dale making and gen-z spending. that brings us to a mystery chart. this time my guest says it will be a beneficiary of these trends. a let's bring in jeffrey burnstein. what happened at wingstop, jeffrey? good to see you. >> good to see you too, kelly. you know, wingstop in particular, expectations have been very high for the past

year, and they've been able to deliver quarter after quarter. but when they reported last week, they did allude to perhaps a little bit of slowdown in the fourth quarter. again, very strong numbers from last year. they're looking to put up another year. so the best comp performer in our space, clearly at a high valuation, but vulnerable to a slowdown. but the stock has rebounded in recent days. >> i noted that sweetgreen, another high flier, is taking a breather. an incredible performer if you go back a few years during covid, then it fell apart, and it was a sign of this softer restaurant trade that panned out. so now there's an activist involved. what do you do with the restaurant space more broadly and what inflection points do you see? >> yeah. so for the restaurant space more broadly, like you said, you know, it's been a tough 2024.

you had significant inflation the past couple of years, and restaurants responded with menu pricing. that accentuated the declines of the industry. metric more recently are showing signs of improvement from a consumer perspective. and inflation is easing, which has allowed for pricing to ease. as we close 2024, we have seen a variety of restaurants talk about improving sales trends. so if the consumer holds up, interest rates are coming down, the election is behind us, and confidence seems to be holding up well. we need to eat every day, and consumers prefer to eat out. >> we're not going out to the restaurant because we want to sit down and have the experience anymore, we're going because we don't want to cook. that's why sweetgreen and those quick options have done so as

well. whereas the sitdown restaurant experience, you know, there's other ways to do that. >> for sure. our casual diners, which we, you know, named for those sitdown restaurants, they have been under the most pressure with negative traffic as an industry for more than 15 years. clearly, it's an overbuilt subcategory, and the next generation of consumers is less inclined to spend an hour at a restaurant. they're looking for something a little more faster, fun and shareable. that's where you've seen the emergence of the fast, casual experience. so whether it's shake shack or chipotle, these brands are a notch above fast food but a notch below casual dining and they are performing extremely well. and likely to continue the next year if you can sum up the valuation. >> you've gotten underweight on cheese wake factory, domino's. jeffrey, thank you for joining us. good to see you today.

>> thank you. have a great weekend. >> you, too. still to come, cathy woods, arc innovation etf, it's on pace for its best week of the year, up 15% since monday helped by trump's big win. tesla hitting a trillion dollar market cap today. 'lru.hares up 9% right now wel n through more of the day's biggest movers after a break. (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street invest in your future with dia, the only etf that tracks the dow. (♪♪) when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change.

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employees get the information they need instantly. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business. take a look at stocks -- or shares, everything you could say near session highs. the dow up 309 points today, to cap out what's been a strong week. the s&p is trading above 6,000. the dow above 44,000, and the nasdaq closing -- and trading today above 19,000, as well. coming up, we have a special "three buys and a bail" election edition. our trader says this is a buy, it's our last mystery chart today. not an energy trade, it is, but teion e that gets a lot of atntusually. we'll reveal the name after the break.

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election, but which names stand to benefit from a trump administration beyond what's already priced in? and which once can be at risk? we have a special edition of three buys and a bail. victoria, so many big juicy moves to pick from, but we're starting with a bit ho-hum, if you'll forgive me. the first buy is walmart, coming off post-election highs, and investors are looking to see if tax breaks or tariffs could help other competitors more. why is this a buy for you? >> okay. this is a buy, because it makes $65 billion, give or take in a year, and 25 to 26%, every corporate tax break they get is a huge massive savings, not only that, they're also a buyer of

most of their suppliers. companies look procter gamble, kraft heinz, pepsi may bet pressured from walmart, hey if there, tariffs that eat costs, you're going to have to help eat those costs, because we're one of your biggest buyers. it's even better post election. >> we were talking with different analysts sometimes it's 20% cheaper than competitors, so that's an interesting take. let's move from walmart to goldman. goldman sachs hit all-time highs on wednesday, they had an earnings beat in october on better capital markets, could see even more of a boost now. why this one even after this? the other day, our friend charlie told us he likes to buy it at within times book, and sell it when it gets to two, and

it's getting closer. >> to me, this is not necessarily a trade. i love this stock. i think deal make will open up and deal making will open up, and that's goldman being goldman. that's where they're going to make their money. it's great in this administration. i think you should by long financials, a bit of a give give back yesterday. for me goldman is one of the top neighbors that should ben bit from some of the policies, just because of their scale in the dealing making. our deal markets -- i think goldman will definitely benefit. >> the other investment banks as well, 60, 70% year-to-date gains, pretty incredible. your final buy is energy transfer. it's a pipeline giant, with a 52-week highs yesterday, as they expand more operations, and make

look to get into the ai game and providing power to data centers. why is this a buy? >> number one, you're sitting around, this has huge run-up pote potential. and they mentioned the ai trade. 40 companies approaching them say we want to hook up into power play. that's a whole new -- they easily surpass the 10% bar. this is a company that i look to continue to grow. a more friendly administration, and so of the areas of the world that benefit moth likely from the trump administration, natural gas, pipelines are probably warm-up key industries you want exposure to. >> stock's an 17, maybe it could be easy his 25. let's actual to your bail. first solar. wednesday was their first day

since 2021. they're still positive over the past year, but it's the outlook forle whole industry, do you think they look uncertain now? >> i do. i don't think we'll get a full rollback, but i think it could go down to a 20% level. they sold over $600 million of tax credits. that was a huge benefit to them. the other stuff is just in flux. i'm not very positive in solar in general. first solar is what i wanted to highlight. they do have an american tilt, but it's not protected enough. they sell to third parties. if there's a third-party slowdown, they could continue to see pressure on their sales. he see the whole industry slowing, not stopping, which i don't want to own right now. >> victoria have a great weekend.

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