joining him this time around. plus, shares of tesla trading higher in pre-market after a gain of 30% last week. it's monday, november 11th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and here we go again. markets are off to the races once again. take a look at the u.s. equity futures this morning. dow futures up 160 points. s&p futures up 16. the nasdaq up close to 45. that comes after a strong week of gains for the major averages l

week with the dow and s&p up 4.6%. nasdaq up 5.75%. if you were looking at this, i think the s&p, the dow and dow transports all had their best week in a year. the russell 2000 was up. it was up 8.5% last week. the small stocks took off after the election. the bond market is closed for veterans day today. the treasury with the ten-year at 4.30 and the two-year at 4 contin4.25. bitcoin surging to $82,000. crypto related stocks surging across the board there. andrew. meantime, president-elect trump saying tom homan is his

border czar. currently a visiting fellow at the heritage foundation. he was a contributor to project 2025. he has previously vowed to run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen. the post announcing the hire. trump saying moshoman would be charge of deporting all illegal aliens back to their home country. this is interesting of what it will look like and if it can be done in a humane way. >> he was the go-to guy in a lot of our competing networks that criticized the biden administration for the border policies. here he is in the position where he can actually do what should be done all along. >> other people who are, you

know, looking at this and saying, you know, president-elect trump said he was not behind project 2025. >> he wasn't going to do the deportation. >> that is the other anxiety side of it. there's got to be a way to deal with the deportation in a humane way. now it is a way of how it actually gets executed. >> right. i don't know whether i call it inhumane way. >> he was the architect of the separation of families last time which raised questions. there are millions of people here illegally. we know it would be dealt with. it is a big issue. it was a very powerful part of the election for trump, too. this is his first irssue he talked about before inflation. two other familiar names would won't be running the trump

administration. nikki haley or mike pompeo. pompeo was the secretary of state. both spoke critically of trump in the primary process, but endorsed the process. pompeo endorsed him on truth social. >> u.n. ambassador nikki haley ran against trump in the primaries. >> what about pompeo? >> pompeo did not run for president, but was frequently mentioned as a possible president. the journal weighs in. it's the lead editorial. the ascendency of junior and tucker carlson. they're talking about 2028 already and many times presidents don't have certain cabinet members from the last

administration. they don't say specifically way before january 20th, they don't say these two people will not be in. it's odd to see that. there's some message there. the message is pompeo has designs on 2028. you will not bolster your r resume. >> similar to nikki haley. nikki haley was vehemently against him. completely against him. >> she said the first person trump gets rid of or elect kamala harris. she was wrong about that. >> then she switched gears completely and then seemed to be frustrated that she wasn't in any of the campaigns. >> she got 17% of the vote in indiana after she dropped out. she was one of the very last to come back around and saying she was in favor of him. there had been the wall street journal and others saying you should welcome in haley and her supporters. this was before the election. >> i don't remember pompeo being

critical. i don't remember him being critical. i always remember him -- >> you wonder if there was a falling out. >> we did these things and they were all positive. >> i didn't remember a falling out with pompeo. >> i can certainly understand jd vance is our guy at this point. i think he helped the campaign a lot. especially from the debate on and he was everywhere constantly no matter how hostile the venue. >> trump even said that on election night going into the next morning and he came out and spoke. he said jd vance, when he called him up to the stage, he said he would go anywhere and places nobody else wanted to go and talk and kind of jumped at the occasion. he spoeke about that. >> he is a protege. >> what do you think -- what do you think the immediate impact is going to be on the economy

because there's going to be lots of people who are going -- some of them are voluntarily going to leave and another group who will be scared -- obviously less people coming into the country which is a huge goal of the administration. the other piece is you will have folks who are working on in construction or on the golf courses -- >> kashkari talked about this over the weekend. >> nannies. all sorts of stuff that will have to no longer work. >> neel kashkari talked about it officer the weekend. he said what is the impact on inflation if you have to pay more for wages than a lot of positions. he said we have to wait and see how it is carried out and how it goes. it is something fed officials are watching already. >> there's always been two counter arguments. one is these are jobs, many of them that legalized american citizens -- >> don't want. >> there is the other argument

they're getting jobs and taking them away from people who have done it right way and come here. >> the question is do you have to pay more for that? are their jobs paid below? >> the 13 million, i don't know, 13 million is a lot of people. >> that's what i'm saying. if it is going to happen quickly -- there will be a transition cost that will be expensive. >> what do you do with legal immigration? i talked to hb2 visa i ammmigra here from jamaica and caribbean and other places. if you have a mass influx of legalized immigration, it may offset some of the -- some of the inflationary actions. it depends how many visas you are willing to give out. legally. >> others on the other side are saying they don't like this

either. man, this is complicated it hasn't been a week. >> it is only 6:08. >> president-elect trump involved himself in the senate leadership race for the first time. he posted on truth social, anyone running to be the next majority leader should agree to let him make appointments to the cabinet. to bypass senate confirmation. you need 60 votes. to replace mitch mcconnell and rick scott of florida agreed with president-elect trump. john cornwyn said it gives him the ability to make appointments. >> wait a second. cornwyn said it gives him the ability? >> no. they sall said we're on board. they have to.

they're all vying to get the job. including recess appointments. republican senators are expected to vote in a secret ballot on wednesday. >> there was kickup over the weekend. i was reading about having the race right now that mcconnell they thought was doing an end-run around it. to allow president trump to have more influence by making it happen quickly and making it happen now. >> and elon musk endorsed rick scott. others evenndorsedendorsed. -- >> i thought what was interesting is elon musk endorsing mike lee's statement of ending the fed tindependence. that was the most uniquely interesting thing. mike lee said the executive branch should be under the direction of the president. yet, another reason we should #endthefed. >> the executive branch?

the executive branch is. >> the fed should be part of the executive branch. he believes that the -- i don't want to put words in his mouth. believes the executive branch should technically be part of that. we have it here. he writes -- there you have it. elon musk saying 100%. he said that's how the constitution was designed so this becomes a quote/unquote constitutional issue if this goes to the supreme court of the united states. >> i understand the world and the economy and the country have changed drastically over the hundreds of years. the idea of -- have you ever heard of a president who didn't want lower rates? that's the only thing the question raises. >> i don't know who we want screwing up monetary policy. pick your poison. coming up, jeremy siegel joins us next with the read on

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week last week. dow up 171. nasdaq up 50. the major indices trading at record levels. joining us now is jeremy siegel at the university of pennsylvania wharton school of business. jeremy, it's good to see you. i think we spoke to you recently. reading some of your notes this morning, i think what i drew from these is that the markets are so important to trump that the markets could propclude him from the draconian things he wants. you think the markets could actually dictate trump's policies. >> i absolutely, joe. president-elect trump is the most pro-stock market president we have had in our history.

he measured his success in his first term by how well the stock market did. you know, it seems to me very unlikely he's going to implement policies that are going to be bad for the stock market and in addition, the bond market, we are beginning to talk about the bond vigilantes again. i thought what happened on wednesday after he won, when the yields went up, was a shot across the bow saying, just watch out what you do. we're there. all the tax cuts you promised, we're very skeptical. there's other structural changes that will happen. both the bond market and the stock market are going to be really big constraints on, you know, many of trump's programs. that said, you know, you know, because he has taken the house, senate and presidency, i think

the extension of his 2017 tax cuts, looks pretty much like a slam dunk, but the expansion to all his other tax cuts is certainly going to be much more difficult. >> some of the things that you describe and just knowing what some of the proposals are, i don't see how you can get a bond market and a stock market or why you expect coincidence rallies in both. some of the things that could help the stock market would hurt the bond market. how would you walk that line? which policies end up taking prec precedence? >> i think what the stock market likes is less regulation and more pro-merger stance. that's positive and certainly does not add to our government debt. i think that that's a positive. >> all of the tax cuts and

all -- if the deficit widens from where it is now, which is a terrible year for the deficit, obviously, if it widens from there with a lot of give aways and the tax cuts, that would be bad for the bond market. obviously, a lot of the biden administration can be good in an arcansian way with inflation, but good for the stock market. >> you know, certainly that, but you are absolutely right. you know, if the bond -- if the bond market -- if yields go up dramatically and i still think yields are going to go up. you know, the normal situation, joe, is that the ten-year is between 100 and 150 basis points above the fed funds rate. don't forget, we have been in the strange inversion category that is atypical of history for

two and a half, three years. normally we do get that bond rate above. that's a normal interest rate. you know, i don't think the fed is lowering to 2.9. that was their long term. i really think it's probably going to settle fed funds between 3.5% and 4%. that really means a 5% or so ten-year and if trump goes all-in on all his tax promises, i would say that that would be higher. so, i think the trend of higher long-term rates is going to be with us. by the way, i listened to your discussion about independence of the fed. i don't think there's any appetite in congress to repeal the federal reserve act. in fact, instead of criticizing jay powell, i think trump should thank jay powell because his

overly easing policy during the biden administration causing all that inflation was certainly one of the reasons why trump won the election. and trump, himself, has said listen, i'm going to keep powell on through the end of his term in the middle of 2026. i really don't -- you know, he might want a little bit more consu consultation, but the market likes the independence of the fed. if he messes any substantial way the independence of the fed, that raises rates in the bond market. >> trump with the 50-basis point cut, hey, this is awfully political before the election. then the one before, 25, yeah, yeah, i like that. i like that cut. they love lower rates. and jay powell, some people said it was a nod.

they were going to cut 25 all along. it certainly would endear him -- >> or make him a smart politician. >> exactly. to keep lowering rates. how do we ever do what's necessary? we'll be stuck at zero again. the same thing last time. we'll have a hard time raising rates again. >> i don't think we're going down that way. take a look. the futures market itself has taken out 100 basis points of cuts from that september meeting already and looking at the strength of the economy. you know, becky was certainly right. politicians have always wanted lower rates. remember wright? >> this goes back to jefferson and hamilton. >> you don't want congress running your monetary policy. even though the constitution

actually gives the power to regulate money to the house of representatives. congress in its wisdom says we have to create an independent corn central bank. >> what brought it up is the moo elon musk tweet. >> mike lee, congress member of utah. >> raising the constitutionality of it. that goes back to hamilton fighting with jefferson. hamilton won out. the central bank was created. it was renewed in 1812, i think, after it was abundantly clear after the united states could not wage war if it did not have a central bank to run through these things. this goes back to the very question and framing of the contusc constitution and the founding fathers. >> we had 100 years without a central bank until the federal reserve act of 1913. we were the last country in the world to have a central bank. >> six guys down off georgia.

>> we're not going back to no central bank. it's just not feasible. >> professor siegel, my question to you is this was challenged in 1929 and later, one other challenge to the idea of the federal reserve as constructed today. i have to actually go back and look. i don't believe there have been that many court challenges to the concept of the central bank. definitely not with the court that's currently in place or in more modern history has there been a challenge. the question is in this environment, if you bring a court challenge of the constitutionality of the construct of the federal reserve and its independence would actually stay in place. just a case like that, if it was even brought, or accepted. >> you are questioning -- someone would question the

constitutionality of the federal reserve act of 1910. that is 110 years ago. the constitution says that congress should set tariffs and then few people know this, but in 1962, congress passed a law to give the president the right to tariffs. there are two or three bills if congress actually saying we want that right back because that could be abused. congress has consistently given rights to the president that the president -- >> i'm not disagreeing with you. there are lots of things we thought were laws and rights that people had in this country that are shifting beneath us. the question is where this is another one that may shift beneath us. >> the major thing is, andrew, how do you think the stock market would react? >> terribly. you have no -- >> and that's something that

donald trump and company want. no. absolutely not. so, i don't think we're abolishing the fed. maybe they'll be more consultation. we'll see who he chooses. don't forget. he had two nominees turned down by a republican senate just for the position of governors which is nowhere near as important as fed chair. so, you know, it's not like we're just the mood of the senate or the mood of the country or congress is let's abolish the fed. that was rand paul. end the fed was a libertarian position, but not the position of wall street and not the position, i think, of almost a majority of any congress or house or senate. >> ron paul and rand paul. >> yeah. yeah. rand paul and ron. both the pauls.

>> the pauls. the pauls. all right. thank you, professor siegel. >> thank you very much. >> you're welcome. okay. coming up, we'll talk much more of the moving cryptocurrency $80,000 and tomorrow, you don't want to miss this. we have an inter vuf coming up with robinhood ceo vlad tenev in the after hours, bro. brian armstrong. we will talk all things crypto and so much more when "squawk box" returns after this. , do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest.

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welcome back to "squawk

box." universal music group pushing back on the post made by bill ackman on friday. he sits on its board. he said he would seek to move the record label from amsterdam to the united states following the attacks of the israeli soccer fans. umg said the company or the board has been involved in the views involved in the ackman post. persing square doesn't have the ability to delist from the exchange. it is possible, austensibly, you could have the listing and the separate listing here in the u.s. >> that's what they were moving toward. >> technically, he has the right to call for such a thing, it is not clear he has done that yet in a formalized way. therefore -- >> it has to be formalized.

i've read his tweet. he is going to call for it. >> the question is what will happen when that happens? that part hasn't happened yet. we'll see. it's interesting. >> reading through some of the stuff he posted about after the soccer attacks and the attacks on the soccer fans that were there, unbelievable when you are talking about on the it and the anger that came with it. i can see why bill was posting some of these things. all right. when we come back, we will take you live to beijing for reaction to china's $1.4 trillion stimulus plan. we'll also get the latest market moves there. plusmi aen f, kellrom axios will join us to wrap up the biggest political stories in the united states. there are a lot of them. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. that's right craig.

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let me set the record straight. are people born wicked? or do they have wickedness thrust upon them? oh! -ah! [ laughter ] no need to respond. that was rhetorical. hm, hmm.

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live at the nasdaq market

site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. look at futures this monday morning. dow jones industrial average up 170 points. the s&p up 18 points. bitcoin now trading over $80,000. >> 82. >> yeah. investors largely shrugging off china's staple imulus announcement. we have eunice yoon with more on this. eu eunice, good evening. >> reporter: good morning, becky. that stimulus package looked more like a debt restructuring rather than a stimulus in a traditional sense which is aimed at boosting demand. so, consumer stocks fella a lo. yum is one of those. we have concerns of the outlook. cpi fell to 0.43%. that missed expectations. the ppi cameing to

minus 2.9%. this was despite the government stimulus here and the october travel holiday. in addition, the foreign direct investment figures showing international companies are indeed scaling back and continuing to scale back. the fdi outflows exceeded inflows in q3. the reason that is significant is because china is on track to report its first ever annual fdi net outflow since 1990. if you think what was happening around that time, right after the tiananmen square crackdown in 1989 when companies were feeling unnerved about investing here. now, on top of all that, you throw in the uncertainty about the potential for steep tariffs under president-elect donald trump. ubs, in fact, decided to cut the

2025 china growth outlook to around 4%. guys. >> eunice, just thinking about how all of this is playing post-u.s. election, obviously, every other nation in the world is trying to figure out what this means to them. how does that overpaying of everything play into what you think you're seeing with china's reaction on the economic front? they have to be thinking about that very deeply. >> reporter: yeah, no, people are thinking about it very deeply from the government level and corporate level and manufacturers are concerned about the steep tariffs and, of course, the policymakers here are also expressing some concern as well and some caution, i would say. in terms of the overarching feeling, is people are just waiting to see whether or not president-elect trump is going to push ahead with what he said. one interesting story in the

wall street journal suggested the policymakers are considering tariff cuts and investments and visa exemptions to u.s. allies to try to buy themselves time and try to really maybe seize the opportunity to be able to say, hey, we're the ones you should be investing in. we are the ones who are much more stable and you should side with us. it's still difficult to say whether or not europeans or other countries would go for it, but it looks as though that is something that the chinese are thinking about. >> eunice, thank you. okay. coming up on the other side, the latest news from the incoming trump administration and his pick for the border czar and high profile names who won't be u ining the cabinet. yocan get the best of squawk pod on your favorite podcast.

"squawk box" returns after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." president-elect trump putting together his stafffor the upcoming administration. he said on truth social, i will not invite nikki haley or mike pompeo to join the trump administration. several names that are being thrown around right now include elon musk, rfk jr. and robert lighthizer. joining us now is mike allen from axios. good morning, mike. walk us through the state of play inside the incoming trump administration and what it means to business. >> andrew, axios ceo is up with the behind the curtain column with the headline "washington is open for business." andrew, i can't emphasize enough the business inputs to this

nacent administration and business outputs that you can expect. here in palm beach, you have ceos over at mar-a-lago eating on the terrace and walking over to congratulate trump. they put names in they want considered and many ceos and other business and tech leaders are being considered. so, how is that going to net out for winners? look for oil and gas, crypto. you saw the bitcoin touching 80,000 yesterday. mid smaller tech companies all going to be part of the business-friendly agenda which will include new energy production deregulation. >> let's talk about some names. let's also talk about the practicality of how all this gets executed which is to say, for example, elon musk.

do you imagine the role he has is a role is confirmable? does he have to get confirmation to do it? is it an advisory role? there is a conflict perspective for so many of these individuals. are they waving conflict rules? how are you seeing this? >> andrew, i won't look for elon musk to have a dot gov address. i would not look for elon musk to be a technical part of the u.s. government, but he is a massive part of sheeping architecting this government. interestingly enough, like his systems backgrounds that built tesla and spacex, he legitimately helped the republican ticket in they figured out they need transportation. he did his own rallies where he was treated like a rock star like trump.

he is intimately involved in shaping this government. i'm told that former president trump and president trump loves sparring with elon. you have interviewed him on stage. you know him. he is quirky. he is not afraid to talk out loud. he is bringing a fresh eye to a problem that trump has been thinking about for eight years, including four of those in the wilderness. >> mike, do you believe -- i think rubio is going to get staked. they mentioned rick grenel as a possibility. bill hagerty. vivek ramaswamy. >> everyone you mentioned is a possibility. those are some of the jobs that are not baked. the immense amount of work and again, a lot of it coming from

wall street and tech business community went into getting these options ready for president trump. now, he and musk are over at mar-a-lago hashing it out. all of those names are on the real list and you said at the top, like one sign of how things are going to be different is the fact that president-elect trump posted yesterday two people that are not going to be in the administration is nikki haley and mike pompeo. nothing, as joe said at the top of the show, nothing usual about that. it shows this is going to be completely different and looking ahead to what business can look for in the administration, it shows president-elect trump very willing to pick winners and losers based on who supported him. >> right. hey, mike, talking about just a wholesale shift in thinking.

what do you make of the tweet over the weekend that elon put out 100%, meaning he agrees with the idea that potentially the federal reserve as we know it and its independence and structure is effectively unconstitutional which is the argument that we saw mike lee making over the weekend that effectively the federal reserve is, in his mind, part of the executive branch and should be part of the executive branch and there should be a legal challenge to make it such? >> andrew, earlier in the show, you expressed appropriate skepticism about the reality mechanics of that. pull back the camera, it shows something very real which is elon musk will drive a lot of the debate conversation in and about this government. you saw this yesterday where in the senate majority leaders race which everybody thought was locked up for senator john thune

of south dakota with the other senator john cornwyn of texas in there. maga media, online influencers started going on in for senator rick scott of florida. it's a secret ballot. this would be wednesday. so what the trump forces are trying to do, the president-elect has not endorsed, but they're trying to squeeze people to make public statements. you saw marco rubio coming out with the statement. elon musk and carlson. musk dropped a tweet endorsing rick scott in the race which drove a whole new round of conversation. so, that is the future. x driving conversation rising power for that platform. elon musk as an idea generator and idea promoter. somebody who is a massive hand

in voice in shaping washington. >> mike, it just peoples to me there will be more action taken more quickly. when donald trump was in his first term in office, he didn't know politics and how things worked in washington. he had seem to me like there will be too many people who are going to say, no, i don't like what donald trump is doing within that party. he's just had an overwhelming victory. no question about voters' supporting him at this point. it feels like this could be a very different first year or two? >> absolutely, and your point about congress is spot on. that's a couple of big differences from last time. and why president trump, i agree with you, will move faster than in the past. like, one is your point, total control of government, not just by republicans, but by maga republicans. the senate secure, republicans expected to hold the house.

a few races out west still to be determined, and here's another one that we mentioned in our column, washington's open for business on axios that the courts are going to have the back of the administration, the republicans with this business-friendly agenda. and former president trump, president-elect trump learned so much last time and one of his learnings was have loyalists going in. for your listeners, this is a nuance, a twist, something new. that in the first trump administration, you had some people who were experts and very qualified and very confirmable, and you had true believers. a lot of times those didn't intersect, as you well know. this time, my conversations were people trying to shape the government, showing they're trying to get the union of those two things, people who are qualified, confirmable and ideological aligned, true

believers, trump foot soldiers, trumpers. >> mike, what do you think casey and his friend mark alias are up to? what's the point of this? i mean, this guy, it's the same guy that tried to get al franken at one point. he's a vote harvester. there's 87,000 provisional ball l -- ballots in pennsylvania. and schumer is not allowing dave mccormick to be on the floor to vote. what's the end game? do you know here? >> yeah, spoiler for you, joe i would like for that to be resolved quickly. this is in pennsylvania where republican dave mccormick upset, according to an associated press projection, the incumbent senator. it took a while to call, especially because pennsylvania has a re-count provision, so this was, like, very narrow.

i'm told by pennsylvania sources that that is looking like it's going to hold. dave mccormick's headed to washington for senate orientation. he wins either way. he's in washington, say he wants to work for the people of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, and if he's held back, he's held back. and will still get the attention and send that message. i think this is going to be less drama, and i think that we'll see a concession relatively soon. >> everybody's quiet, schumer is quiet. they're just letting it play ou out. it's untoward. >> mike allen, good to see you. coming up, russia is reportedly considering a megamerger of its oil companies. we'll see what lina khan has to say about that. details next. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions.

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moscow is working on a plan to merge its biggest oil companies into one single national company. the "wall street journal" says one possible scenario involves state backed absorbs a large sub said area, and lukoil, a combination could produce the second largest crude producer, saudi aramco. bringing lukoil would be a step to unwinding the privatization of russia's resources after the collapse of the soviet union. we'll take a look at the potential impact of president-elect trump's tariffs proposs alon retailers, also consumers. we'll talk about that right after this.

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it is just about 7:00 a.m. right now on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on this monday morning. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we have a number of big stories we want to tell you about this morning. investors waiting for another big week of earnings. three dow components reporting. that list includes home depot. we're going to hear from disney, cisco, spotify, jd.com and alibaba. meantime, president-elect trump announcing last night that tom homan is going to be his administration's border czar, the former acting director of the u.s. immigration and customs enforcement. he's a visiting fellow at the heritage foundation. a contributor to the project

2025 mandate for leadership book. the truth social post announced the hire. trump also saying homan would be in charge of all deportation of illegal aliens back to their country of origin. lots of questions, of course, about how it will be executed and what its impact will be on the economy. elon musk endorsing the idea of allowing presidents to intervene in federal reserve policy. more than that. he responded to a social media post from republican senator mike lee that called for the fed to be under the direction of the president. senator lee ended his post with the #endthefed. he also believes that the concept of the fed may be unconstitutional. musk responded with the 100% emoji that's used to convey agreement. checking the futures this morning, up again, 183 points of upward momentum right now on the dow, the nasdaq, let's get to

dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> bitcoin is trading above the 82,000 mark for the first time ever as the crypto rally following the president-elect's win is still showing no signs of stopping at this point. now, according to data from coin market cap, the total market value of bitcoin at current prices is right around $1.63 trillion. you can see micro strategy. coin based global, all up double digits trading in the green this morni morningment. we'll put a star up there. 82,231, the last trade. we're seeing another beneficiary of the trump trade. tesla, that stock is moving 7% higher, after hitting a $1 trillion market cap. it was over $1.2 trillion back then. now, one of the main propellants of that rise is investors short the tesla shares and rushed to close out the losing positions,

a short squeeze. so tesla shares up about 7%, a big move higher, and then let's end with cisco shares. jpmorgan is upgrading from overweight to neutral. they upped the target price from 66 to 55. jpmorgan also called cisco a wild card in the security industry with potential for strong revenue growth. this all ahead of cisco's earnings set to, as andrew alluded to, a report on wednesday. for more on those top calls of the day, head over to cnbc/pro. ciscos shares up 1 3/4%. i'll send it back to you guys. let's take a closer look right now at how president-elect trump's proposed tariffs could impact retailers and the consumer. joining us for that is jan kniffen, the ceo of j. rogers niffin. thank you very much for joining us. you sent an e-mail laying out your concerns around this or

things you think could happen potentially. and i want to back this up. this was one of the most exhaustive and thorough analyses i have seen. for context, you are somebody who has been involved with retail and with importing goods for most of your life. in a major way, too, talking about billions of dollars that you have been responsible for, bringing in goods, a lot of times from china. what do you think the impact will be, especially after the nrf put out a report, they think american consumers could lose between $46,000,000,078,000,000,000 in purchasing power every year. >> a lot of that goods going into china was my fault. having said that, i'm less concerned about the tariffs than it seems like a lot of other people might be. remember last time tariffs, nothing really happened. we didn't see a big rise in inflation. we didn't see a big cratering of retail profits. why not?

the last time we put on tariffs, the chinese factories were so desperate to keep the business that they literally ate a huge chunk of the tariff increases. at this point in time, the chinese economy has never been worse in my lifetime in business than it is right at this moment. so they're desperate to keep business. they want to keep the factories running, in the short-term, if tariffs came on and they weren't dramatic, i believe a huge amount would get absorbed in an effort to keep the business in china. remember, we have been trying to move out of china for ten years, and that accelerated after the last tariffs went on, and if more tariffs go on, that will continue the trend out of china. but right now, about 80% of all toys and games still come out of china, and then after that is sporting goods, then down the list is home furnishings, and then footwear, appliances, apparel and home improvement. when you get to the last two categories, apparel and home

improvement, it's 20% out of china right now. we have already seen the shift happening of things coming either out of china to other places in asia or near shoring or on shoring. that will continue, especially if tariffs come in. >> what's your definition of tariffs that would not be too onerous or substantial that you think might be able to be absorbed by some of these chinese manufacturing plants? >> if we really put 60% on apparel and accessories and goods, that's going to be a big problem. last time they were double digits. 10, 15, those kind of numbers, i think they would get mostly absorbed. when you get to punitive tariffs, 60, 100, 200%, obviously nobody can absorb those. they would have to get pushed through. i don't think that's what will happen on things i'm talking about. we may do severe tariffs on cars, electronics, things that we think are critical to the

national infrastructure or critical to the national security. >> some things that can be manufactured here and are being manufactured here, versus things that maybe the manufacturing is probably never going to come back on shore here. >> or even if it did, there would be no people involved. it's not like you're going to bring a lot of jobs back. you bring back making all t-shirts in the united states, it will be one person with a sophisticated machine, chunking out t-shirts, it will not be a lot of people doing that work. >> you have concerns about the cost structure for some of the retailers because they're facing higher energy costs, higher labor costs than they were eight years ago when president trump came in for the first time, but how do you think this is going to play out? what do you think will happen this time? >> retailers worry about one thing mostly is that do you have a job, right? and so we want jobs to be plentiful here and we have seen the job market getting weaker, not stronger.

that's our concern. >> because if americans have jobs, they will continue to spend. >> they always do. if they have a job, if they think they'll keep it, and if they think they could get another one if they lost it, they'll keep spending. the other thing we worry about in the economy of course are the tax rates, and we were really concerned that a new administration might put on a 28% tax rate versus 21%. retailers are maximum taxpayers. we don't have much to shield. if the rate goes to 28%, we're paying 28%. if it goes to 15. that would be a big deal in our favor making business easier to do. staying at 21 would be okay, as long as the tariffs aren't p punitive. if you went to 15% in the tax rate, you could absorb that as well. the problem with tariffs, they're regressive. they're like a sales tax or consumption tax, they hit poor people harder. if it gets passed through, it's

more painful that way. you know, to put this in perspective. if you're talking about a company that's fairly high end that sells apparel, accessories, they're only about 10% out of china. if you're talking about something like five below, sells toys and games and smaller value items, they're 40% directly out of china, and 20% from other vendors. 60% of the product comes out of china, and they're fairly low priced goods to not an affluent consumer. that gets hurt much more if it doesn't get absorbed by the factories. >> jan, thank you, the next time you're on, we'll talk to you about your stock ideas and what you are doing with these things. thank you, this was exhaustive. and i appreciate how much time you spent putting it all together. appreciate it. >> anytime. what will the fed do in the last meeting of the year. we're going to ask kelsey berro, jpmorgan asset manager. and later from rebuilds to

refies, the property brothers here to talk about all things housing. their new show and much more on "squawk box."

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♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. welcome back to "squawk box." joining us with more on the fed and the fixed income market, kelsey berro, a jpmorgan asset management fixed income portfolio manager. good morning. >> good morning. >> before we get into the bond vigilantes. the conversation we have been having in the last hour, as it

relates to elon musk's comment, and congressman lee's comment about fed being an unconstitutional structure, if you will, that should be part of the executive branch, and what you think that would mean if someone were to actually challenge it? >> well, i mean, i'm not a legal expert, but i would imagine it would be very poorly received by financial markets, both the bond market and the stock market. and so ideally, the pralfederal reserve is a bedrock of the financial system. i think right now that's not on anyone in the financial market, and would be a shocking development. >> when you see tweets like this, the reason i even mention it, you're right, it doesn't seem normal. there have been things that don't seem normal that have then over time become normalized and elon musk has an enormous amount of influence in this new administration, and whether you think that there will be demonstrable efforts to change the way this works.

>> my suggestion would be maybe he should watch hamilton the musical. maybe that will inspire him a little bit to, you know, recognize that it is certainly an important part of the fixed income marketand a bedrock of the global financial system. >> the executive branch screws up enough already. they don't need another thing to screw up. the fed does pretty well screwing up itself, if you go back to the financial crisis. you go back to staying at zero this last time. the fed doesn't need any help making mistakes. they have screwed up a lot of things, but you want them to be the ones screwing it up. >> they have done good things too over time. >> i guess, maybe. i think the economy itself does the best things, usually, if you just get out of the way. i think they're way too much a part of our life. we'd never raise rates again. every president wants zero interest rates. we would be stuck at zero.

i don't see how the dollar would stay the reserve currency of the world if the president got his way all the time. nixon would have lowered rates. hw bush might have beaten clinton if greenspan hadn't raised rates. >> it's interesting to compare 2016 to 2024 because if you think about the bond market reaction, what i've noticed is the fact that the ten-year yield is eight basis points lower than it was the friday before the election. so i think there was a lot of anticipation, a lot of positioning ahead of the fact, and, you know, while we have seen yields go higher, i mean, this is a significantly different environment. think about where the ten-year was in 2016. it was at 1 1/2%, and the fed was at zero, and they were actually starting a hiking cycle. now we're at a significantly different place. yields are already at 4%. the fed has done a full hiking cycle. they are actually now cutting rates. i think, you know, when i'm assessing the move that we've

seen so far in ten-year treasury yields, could they go higher, yes, but i think there are actually differences and potentially some limits or guardrails relative to 2016. >> what do those guardrails look like, and how high could it go? >> so, i think that you have to recognize that we need to expect the range of outcomes has expanded quite a lot. and the market is really grappling with what could happen. the sequencing of what could happen, and then in the meantime, you know, how is the economy going to perform baecaue when we look at these initiatives, they're not going to impact the data points we get this week or even next month, and so the fed on the other hand is really going to have to stick to the data that they see in front of them, which is still, you know, moderate inflation, a cooling labor market, an economy that is still very very strong, and so what that says to us when we're building our fixed income portfolios is, you know, this is still a good time to be, you

know, building portfolios that have a heavy lean towards credit. so that's something you can get 6 to 8% yield on because, you know, generally the fundamentals are still quite positive. >> you mentioned a cooling labor market. one of the interesting dynamics that's at play is what's going to happen with immigration. one of the things you're already starting to hear about even in the past week, is folks that were planning to illegally or legally try to immigrate here, may not make those treks and those trips. there's obviously the separate piece which is that the border czar was announced over the weekend and is going to largely be responsible for deporting lots of people. that's going to create its own sort of execution challenges and questions about, you know, how humanely that can all be done. it is going to do something, i imagine, to the labor market. and the cost of that labor. how do you square those circles?

>> yeah, i mean, it's a really good point. if you just think about what was one of the factors that drove inflation over the last many years, it was an imbalance, there was too many job openings and too few people to fill those. essentially the metric was if you look at the number of job openings relative to the unemployed, that got to two to one. that was extremely imbalance d. you saw large increases in wages to capture whatever spare labor there was. now, that ratio is back to one to one. so we've made a ton of progress here. and so i think for now, we don't know exactly how this is going to impact it. if it's going to push that ratio back up again, you would imagine that eventually -- >> do you model it doing that. i think to myself, do you remember it during the pandemic, there were restaurants that couldn't open, because they

didn't have enough folks in the quote unquote, back of the house, back of the kitchen. doing the work, you know, doing the dishes, all sorts of work that, to be honest with you, is sometimes being done by folks who may not be here legally? >> well, it depends on how all of the other pieces move. one of the things that has also happened is that you've had an increase in participation. participation particularly for women has continued to rise. participation for prime-aged men is actually still kind of low relative to prior experiences. so perhaps, you know, there will be some filling of those roles by other people who are here who can take the role. >> and hopefully that's the case. my question is at the same price? and how do you model that? >> it may not be. i think it's very difficult to model it. here's the way that i would think about this. i would think about our base case is still that, you know, wages are going to remain

moderate, the labor market is cooling, but where are the balance of risks? in this new framework, this new fiscal environment that we're in, the balance of risk is to those things being higher, wages being higher, inflation being higher. that is something that we have to be aware of. >> kelsey, thank you for coming in this morning. appreciate it. up next, president-elect trump shaping his foreign policy ahead of his inauguration. we will talk about some of the issues he will face over the next four years. right now, though, as we head to a break. let's take a check of shares on nvidia this morning, piper sandler saying it's a must own for the ramp up of the blackwell chip. rating that stock in overweight with the price target of 175. the price today, $148.17. "squawk box" will be right back.

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realignment within the republican party and gives the president-elect a panmandate to move more aggressively in congress. joining us now, chief strategist of international political affairs and public policy, sarah bianchi. it's january 20th. it will come fast, sarah. have you been surprised that there's some, i don't know, some reshuffling already of the debt shares, not only some companies, et cetera, but even countries and the conflicts that are going on. we view them a little bit differently with -- he's not in the oval office yet. but it's almost like he's looming over the oval office already. >> i think it's a really good point. there's a lot of countries and companies seeking to reposition themselves for this new washington order, and as we wrote, even though we did give president trump the slight edge to win the race, although it

was, we thought, could go either way, i don't think anyone expected that he would win with quite this level of support throughout the country. and of course he'll have the senate. it looks like he'll most certainly have the house like trade and other areas where they were thinking he would have to do things through executive action, now, maybe the congress has to look at some of these. so i think whether it's republicans in congress or leaders around the world, everybody is readjusting to this new washington alignment. >> i know trade is your thing, but we can't ignore what it means for israel or what it means for iran, what it means for china. geopolitically, what it means for ukraine, and russia. phone calls either were or weren't made between the president-elect trump and putin.

it's possible that some things start happening before he does anything, even in the tariff environment. we may see certain countries being, you know, sort of, i don't know, nicer to their trading partners because they don't want punitive action. >> i think that's absolutely right. you know, i was in tokyo earlier in the fall, and they were talking about wow, you know, in the first trump administration, you know, abe had such a good relationship and that was so helpful, and how do we position ourselves. so i do think everybody is recalibrating, and you're right, there are international conflicts throughout the world. he's already -- obviously the president-elect is obviously very involved talking to the ukrainian president. i think he's going to look to try to settle out things. that was really the point he was making on the campaign trail is

we're a little tougher. i'm going to get things under control, and i think he's going to want to show some early wins on that. now, look some of these conflicts are not easy. certainly, israel, iran, and other things, so -- but i think we're going to look for some places, at least, potentially ukraine where he can say mission accomplished quite quickly, and that's -- i think we are going to -- like you said, that's already starting to happen. >> what is the calculus for how far it goes with tariffs. now we got to factor in that it doesn't necessarily have to be just as you said, executive orders. he could probably get a lot of things through the senate and the house. and what is that as we also alluded to, does it mean maybe some of these tariffs don't have to go on if we see preemptive action by other countries? >> well, the advantage of doing

the tariffs through the congress is that they give you credit for a deficit offset. i think there is interest in the house, and the house republicans and the ways and means fare is looking at some of these. we'll have to see in the senate. this is not the kind of policy that a john thune, a mitch mcconnell, those guys are inclined to be supportive of. there are a lot of republicans who share the same concerns about inflation and the like. with this newfound authority, you know, everything is on the table. i'm also interested, there's a lot of reports about lighthizer, i think he will play a role in the administration. i do believe the role is still being sorted out, and he wants to make sure he's fully empowered. he's the one who knows his way around all of these trade authorities, whether it be executive or legislative. so watching to see exactly what seat he's in on this rocket ship will be important.

>> so you made a point, so tell me again, if it's actually put into law it can be called deficit reducing, which would probably -- that's something that they would like to do. does it take 60 in the senate to do something big with tariffs? >> so i think what they're going to do is do it as part of -- what they're going to try to do is do it as an offset for the tax bill. washington's going to be all taxes in 2025. if they can legislate the riff, they only will need the 50 votes as part of kind of reconciliation, and the congressional budget office will then count that if it's as a, quote, you know, pay for, if you will, in the same way that a spending cut or a revenue raiser would be a pay for. again, that's going to be more

difficult to do. yes, like you said, it certainly appeals to folks who were worried about the size of this, and how many new ideas a president trump wants to put into an already very very large deficit adding bill. >> so would evercore tell its clients about bonds, even duration, housing, all of these things, what do you expect? because you're right, maybe you had a slight edge in a close election for trump, but probably nothing like this. >> we certainly didn't. i think, look, we have been talking a lot about the trump agenda, the trump 2.0 agenda, and how different it is than trump 1.0. which is really the economic plan was really fueled by a corporate rate cut that was a very welcomed by markets, and this time we see very much the

thrust is immigration where we do think there will be a difference, not fully what he talked about on the campaign trail. we have had affecting growth by about .4%, and trade, which is inflationary and not to mention the deficits. so while we are seeing this exuberance and the deregulatory agenda and m and a, the markets are finding a lot to like in these early days. we do think they're going to have to start to focus on the bond market and some of the implications of what these actual policies will mean. >> great. okay. thank you, sarah bianchi, isi ever core. drew and jonathan scott, the property brothers. they're going to join us, talk all things housing and their new show. you don't want to miss this. meantime, take a look at the futures right now. we've got green on the screen. dow up 192 points.

nasdaq up 82 points, the s&p 500 up 25 points on a monday morning, we're coming right back. okay! client wants his head bigger. wow, fast response. sent! okay, oop! even bigger. sent. [sending swoosh, notification alert] still bigger. okay, yeah i'm not doing that— [typing noises, sending swoosh] i think it still looks good! [notification alert] oh — even bigger.

let's take a look at shares of cigna and humana. cigna just confirming that it is not pursuing a merger with humana. reports said cigna revived efforts for a merger after it abandoned it last year after the two sides failed to agree on a price. that is good news for cigna shareholders. humana shares are down 6 1/3% on this news. coming up, drew and jonathan scott, the property brothers skro join us after the break. and peter orszag, on president-elect trump's win and elections when we come right back. l advanced coverage for over 300,000 race fans and event staff.

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♪ i could make a custom pin ♪ ♪ watch the dog walker get in ♪ ♪ so ziggy won't complain ♪ ♪ ♪ when my in-law comes a-knockin' ♪ ♪ i can open, maybe lock it ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪ mortgage rates remain elevated. the average 30-year fixed rate has been above 6% for two years, and put some pressure in terms of people looking to move. our next guests are talking directly to homeowners who can't move in a new show they have. it's called don't hate your house. it premiers wednesday on hgtv, and joining us right now are the

property brothers. we have jonathan scott and drew scott, who are cofounders of scott brothers global. we know you guys as the property brothers but we also know you guys as just jonathan and drew. >> because of the home space. can i say that? >> fashion mavens. >> i'm in the handsome man beard club. >> everybody likes a little scuffle. >> it's new. >> and i also didn't cover my dp d grays today. i wanted to feel more knowledgeable. >> do you sometimes cover the grays? >> i don't know what the product is. my wife gave it to me, thank you, linda. you make me look younger. the wisdom is coming out today for you guys. >> he spent so much money fixing that face and covered it all with a beard. >> two days until we launch the new show. this is all about the people,

they want to move. they hate their house. they realize all the additional costs, everything with moving is not worth it. finding ways to love your house and be able to afford it. >> nobody would have expected the 30-year rates to increase. even right now, there's a massive lack of inventory, which causes housing to become so expensive. we have been harping on people for the longest time, that's why i try and find a house you can grow your family into. every time you move, you lose a lot of equity to legal fees, tax taxes, everything else. find a home you can make your own, and you'll be better off in the long run. >> the undersupply of housing, that's a big part of the problem. people are stuck in their homes, can't find a new place. have kids living with them a lot younger than used to. >> my wife wants to keep our kids there until they're 50. i want them to find a new place at 18.

>> finding a way to have a secondary income, there are so many houses that have the ability to have a second unit or even a third unit on their lot. >> are you into building your own adu? we had joe gebia, who started airbnb on. he has this adu business that's blowing up in california in a big way. >> i talked to joe a little while ago on that. we acquired a modular builder. part of the solution is people putting in adus. not only does it provide a home for somebody else. >> for anybody who hasn't been following along. alternative dwelling unit. >> auxiliary unit. >> it's a tiny house on your property. >> they're not functional. they're not to code. >> how do you really feel? >> we're talking about houses that are functional. they're smaller. >> the biggest issue is cost. >> a she shed, isn't it? >> you could have it as a she shed.

somebody else might have a man ka cave. >> that's only part of the solution. it helps offset household income with more revenue. but i think finding ways to do larger builds, so looking for nonprofits, looking for unused city property, things like that where we can do large builds for multifamily housing, that's probably the most important part of this. >> a huge part has problem has to be the local zoning laws. there's a pitch quilt. >> every time they propose affordable housing. i can guarantee you, federally and locally they're trying to find housing solutions. every major city has a problem. every time they find a property they want to do it, people say, no, i don't want it in my backyard, the problem is it affects all of us. >> part of our business is if we can set up to meet regulation here in california, we can do it anywhere in north america. it's so tight here. we have a fund that we have launched and we're in our raise right now, and looking at opportunities that will bring costs down for the home. that's the main thing for us. we want families to enjoy where they live and be able to afford

it. >> how much of this is as i describe an airbnb style play, which to say folks that have their own home, add an adu and the adu is meant as a rental income property. >> a short-term rental is not the solution here. long-term rental is more of a solution. we need homes, not vacation properties. >> we have seen a yank back on the industry where a lot of areas are not allowing you to do the airbnb style particularly here in new york. >> you go on tiktok, and dad, we should be arbitraging the airbnb business, you rent a place, rent it on a long-term basis, and charge even more on a short-term basis, this is a huge market. you watch those guys, and say that's crazy or -- >> there is opportunity there, but the thing is there's also a lot more leg work that goes into short-term. you can get a premium, but i personally, with the portfolio i have out in charlotte where i have been investing, it's more affordable than california, and

up in canada, we're looking at long term, and we have single families, and we have multis. it's all going to be rental property but it's going to be reasonable pricing. >> if you're getting your real estate advice on tiktok. >> the sorkin family members should be listening to you. no shortage of people giving advice who have no purpose giving advice. >> they tell you about the millions of dollars they're making. >> as they live in their parents' basement. the one thing i think that is very important. we have learned this. we tried to do the get rich quick stuff, flip properties, when we were 18 years old, after being in the business as long as we have been in the business. i don't know how old i am, 25 years we have been doing real estate. the one thing we have learned is if you plan long-term, you'll be more successful in the end. if you're trying to do the get rich quick, more stress, more anxiety, and you won't have more money. >> inflation prices, not just mortgages, but everything it

takes to build a house, do a renovation has gone up. we saw so many people thrilled with doing the renovations when we were locked in because of covid, we saw inflation prices go up. would you being buying the lumber and getting involved in the pricing side of those things? >> we had everything from covid surge, lack of trade, trade costs is probably one of the biggest things. we're seeing solutioning come out that require shorter times on build sites because the labor costs are so high. you're going to see, which is part of what our fund is investing in, new service providers, platforms, technologies, as well as products that are going to help bring down those costs. things did level quite a bit after the supply shortages, but you still see we're probably 30, 40% higher than we were. >> and also what we're investing in is every aspect of home where you can find ways to reduce your shipping costs and labor costs and again with our panelized system for housing, it's real

units, real houses but we can stack these panelized systems four or five high, and i think getting outside the box and thinking differently for how you build is going to help a lot of people get into investing in a second home, an adu or a full building that's more affordable than what's out there. in california, we have been talking to -- i have been talking to the city, and they're trying to find ways to get the costs down. right now they're paying 800, $850,000 per one bedroom unit to get people off the street. that's ridiculous. we're trying to help find solutions with what we can bring to the table. >> what should well expect from the show? it starts in two days. >> don't hate your house, it's like people at the end of their rope. they do not know what to do. they are ready to walk away from these houses, walk away from the problems, and we're trying to say to people, i know it's frustrating. we're going to get you through it. it's like diy therapy. you will see us, we're going to tell people how it is. you're going to see people have breakdowns, people that are losing their minds.

the finale of the season is our parents' home. we have moved them to ceresanta monica. >> we didn't want them to hate their home. they were living in their dream home, and came down to be close to their grand kids. mom, you had a long list of wants in that house. i hope we got it right. >> a strong buy on home depot, is that basically -- now i looked at it, it's only -- it's just off an all time high. the whole trend. you sold me on home depot stock. >> you're going to see a drastic change in how the major retailers are operating, throwing out the play book, new ways to look at the younger consumer. it's hard for younger consumers to get into real estate. we have been approached by many of the major retailers, trying to find ways, how can we get them in the store, and i think part of it is going to be content driven. you're going to see social media live selling, things like that, a surge of new innovation to try

to get younger people who aren't necessarily going into the stores often to purchase. >> that's why they like a brand like us, we own a production company, an in-house, digital team, and they want content, and faces known for homes. >> are you lowe's guys or home depot. >> product in both. >> which do you likehomes. >> are you home depot or lowe's guys? >> we have products. >> bros. >> i don't feel comfortable in either, lowe's or home depot. >> that's why they give you the she shed -- >> yeah, and everybody is shifting strategies, too. i think you will see a different way home depot is marketing and lowe's as well. they have a tech inhouse. >> i have been to both

headquarters, we district 12.5 million products that we manufacture, and one of them will figure it out, why don't we do a series of workshops across the country where we show up -- >> to show how to do it yourself. >> it's what our brand and the new show is about and i think that would be very great. >> the show is out in two days. thank you very much, again. >> thank you. >> "don't hate your us"hoe. coming up, strauss zelnick joining us next. "squawk box" after this. with dexcom g7, managing your diabetes just got easier. so, what's your glucose number right now? good thing you don't need to fingerstick. how's all that food affect your glucose? oh, the answers on your phone. what if you're heading low at night?

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llw lazard ceo, peter orszag, wi join us. and then the gaming industry and

ai is what we will talk about. "squawk box" will be right back.

ai stocks surging as the focus shifts from hype to real, reportedly, and the results are making waves across industries. now, t rowe price portfolio manager. is there anything you don't like? you like nvidia and marvel and the list goes on and on, tony. is the promise here yet? it's faster than people thought. it does seem to be branching out and spreading to not just nvidia and building out ai, but to the applications for ai. is it starting? >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. you know, for the first couple of years of post chatgpt, a lot of the benefit to the simi conductor stocks, and we are starting to see inflecktions in

various software companies where we are seeing traction among the ai products, so i think the last earnings season, we saw service now, for example, palantir, axy yawn, global, and perhaps this being an industrial activity increaser. >> still, nvidia is going to be there no matter how much it spreads out. what about marvell? >> yeah, i like that company long-term. right now they are gaining a lot of traction in their custom chip products, specifically with amazon. as the workloads become big and

they are spending a lot of cap x, and a lot of the workloads will go to costam and in house, and i think there's a strong future for marvell, and they have strong chips and the semiconductor business is probably bottoming out there. i like the ceo and he has done a good job. >> so even great big companies with huge market caps, this is a much smaller percentage, and microsoft, amazon, tesla, google, all benefiting now? >> i think to really benefit ai, you have to have the applications and customers, and the capital to train your models and deploy them, so when you take a step back and think about in the mag 7 that you have there, they all check the box.

to me they have an ai advantage and you can see them well positioned for the long-term. >> then we are going to go in a second, but you have a couple others. i just like apple lovin, and then palantir, axion, you love all those? >> i think a lot of them had quite big moves recently, and you saw that driven largely by their ai data flywheel. these moves are pretty big and i think when you take a step back, they are often on a expediential ado adoption curve, and to me, like when i think about app they have digital advertising and the team is executing phenomenally well

on the new products and they are getting model enhancements that essentially make their marketing better as a result. >> we will leave it there, then, thank you. >> okay. it's just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i am becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. bitcoin hitting highs, and other coins like ether moving higher as well. as our crypto-related stocks like coin base and strategy. tesla is another trump trade moving higher. that stock is up more than a third since last week's

election. and kashkari says tariff proposals could worsen inflation worse if some strike back. time to take a look at the futures. the s&p up about 28 points and nasdaq up about 106 points. the bond market closed today for veterans day but here is where things stand. the ten-year treasure, the 4.3, and the ten-year treasury at 4.42. we want to get to mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. what is on your to-do list? >> the follow-through to last week's aggressive repricing in the markets. look at the s&p 500, and we are in a strong trend, up about 20%.

almost the perfect setup for the dramatic reacceleration. usually that's a sign of genuine momentum. the parts of the market that would most be leveraged to a acceleration of growth if we were going to get the anticipated policy mix. it's starting to look short-term, overbought. in general, we have seasonal tailwinds and this is the kind of move you don't necessarily want to overthink right away here. you mentioned the bond market staying out of the way. and take a look at consumer discretionary on an equal-weighted basis. it's actually happening elsewhere. last week we got the first new high in the dow transports in a year and a half and this is consumer discretionary and you have small caps on an all-high.

you already had cyclical outperformance that got an extra little bump with the election news. you have been talking about the move in bitcoin, and i find it interesting bitcoin versus gold. gold had been outperforming bitcoin for several months going into this, and you see gold gives it back in the election and bitcoin goes up and that shows you bitcoin is a risk on assets and gold was participating a hung election result or something like that, guys. >> thank you for your smart analysis of what's going on here. when we come back, the impact the m&a and the economy and federal budget all on the table and president trump's election win, and peter orszag will join

us next. don't go anywhere. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. ♪

all right. welcome back, everybody. joining us to talk markets, the fed, deal making and what it could look like once president-elect trump takes office, peter orszag. we have probably not spent enough time analyzing since this was happening. last week you saw the biggest move for the russell 2000 in more than four years and the biggest gains for the s&p, the dow, the dow transports in over a year. somebody explained this to me. a really big player, somebody that understands the markets and made a ton of money in the markets, and look, this is what you get when you have the most pro regulation business and anti-business administration going to the opposite of that. >> a lot of this has to do with the expectations of lower

corporate rate, more deal making. those are all positive. there's a little pressure on the bond yield, which may offset this eventually. right now we are in everything is possible. what is happening right now is the transition is the time when the glorious hype of the campaign starts to meet the real grim reality of governing, so what happens in the next few days when we start to prioritize what has been discussed. >> within the priorities, things that are good for business and things not so good for business? >> the things beneficial are what i just said, which is a different m&a regulatory environment, and even the tariffs which will put upward pressure on inflation and create an incentive for cross border m&a.

you want to locate your operations inside the tariff wall. >> what would upset the apple cart? >> i think there are lots of things that can go sideways, and it's not just a statement of life in the world and i think if you started to see -- i would be paying particular attention to the people appointed. so far it has gone well, and the chief of staff is a solid one, for example. if you started to see people who are -- the people will matter a lot. i think this is the first indication something would go off kilter, and this is pretty promising. lots of people who said they would never serve in a trump administration are raising their hand -- >> wouldn't it be amazing if it really came true, the

deregulation with a more efficient government -- if that was able to offset some of the affects of the tariffs, which maybe don't not be fully implemented because countries around the world try and preemthat? >> that would be great. i think one of the things from the recent election cycle, and inflation is really unpopular. we could talk about what caused the inflation, and i don't think the common narrative of the arp -- put that aside. that's true for the tariffs and -- >> i am hoping it could be

deflationary and offset that. >> exactly. >> i am hoping for the success in elon musk in doing this, and if you look at the history of the waste, fraud and abuse, this is an example where it's really easy to say it's really hard to do. >> because -- what -- >> somebody knows this stuff, and what is on the table and what is not on the table? >> i think everything that looks wasteful is typically there for some kind of reason and it has a constituency protecting it. it's like raising taxes. it's easy to say but when you get down to the details. >> in terms of not just executive action, but within departments that have to hire and not hire, and they can choose not to hire people, right? there are things they can do and not do? >> in terms of regulatory and

legislative -- they can do a fair amount through executive order. >> how much cutting can you do that way? what do you think the upper bound of cutting from a -- >> let's back up and remind ourselves the vast majority of spending is entitlements, medicare and medicaid, and we're not talking about that. the whole defense department, the way we invest in the military probably does need to change. i think there's a real concern and maybe the new administration can get to the heart of this about whether we are investing in the right types of systems and tech savvy, and put defense to the side. you are down to such a small share of overall government spending even if you take 10 to 20% off of it you are not denting the trajectory. >> what about the civil service protections? what does that allow you to do? >> it's a little unclear exactly

what will happen here. let's remember, the civil service protections were put in place in order to protect the professionals of the federal government from undue partisanship and political interference. the counter argument the trump folks will make is that perhaps the bureaucracy has drifted to the political view and that was not the intention of the protections. >> a former person serving in the obama administration, and somebody running an investment bank right now, how do you feel about the election? your party didn't win -- >> my personal views are clear, and the election we were talking about before we went on, crystal clear, democracy has spoken, and i am focused on helping our

clients. >> you told me you were excited and it might be better? >> as far as business. >> i took that as a win. >> we were discussing immigration at the table, and both in terms of humanity, of how this gets executed and the inflationary pressures, and the offsets, i got a text from somebody saying what about all the money we are spending, you know, giving out debit cards and other things in new york and other places, and i think you are part of the partnership for new york and others that are trying to work on this immigration problem. do you think there's going to be an inflationary affect and are we going to see stories about how restaurants can't find enough folks in the back office and how golf clubs are going to be shutting down or costs are going to go up? >> this is a good example about campaign versus governing and we will have to wait and see how far it goes.

it remains to be seen. even if it was justified -- >> i am not arguing it's not justified, but the -- >> well, it will put pressure on wages and therefore inflation, and that's one of the consequences. >> were their deals awaiting to be done determined by the election? are there people moving ahead with a deal saying yeah, we have been thinking about it and talking about it and now game up? >> up until two or three months, that was not happening and it makes sense to say why don't we wait until we see what the environment is like. >> what does that tell you about deelective tee for next year? >> well, this is just

accelerating what was already a rapidly developing m&a cycle? >> financials? i assume you think there will be small bank mergers? >> i hope so. for a while, as i pointed out, we needed to consolidate the banks. >> we will see what happens. clean energy, do they have to merge because they will be more troubled? >> possibly. a lot of the support goes to deeply republican state and texas is an example of that so we will see what happens. it's entirely possible that one of the sectors that is harmed here is the renewable. >> we talked about the fed this morning, but do you have any view there could be a court case brought effectively about the

constitutionalality, and that's raising a question that was not on the table or on a lot of peoples' bingo card a week ago? >> this is an institution created by the congress and doesn't need to exist but the reason it exists and the reason it has independence is the evidence suggests independent central banks produce better outcomes and i think it's in president trump's interest to have an independent federal reserve because the evidence is overwhelming that independence for the central bank produces a better combination of inflation and employment, which is what you want. >> would the market freak out if it thought the fed would not be independent? >> you asked earlier what could be destabilizing, and that could be destabilizing. >> there are going to be lot of

business people who are going to go into the administration, right, and many whom -- almost a post world war ii approach to some of this, and elon musk may be the sort of avatar for all of that. there will be questions invariably about conflicts of interest, and invariably there will be folks that will get waiver and there was a story about how howard lutnig will be there. how does somebody like you think about the balance between the expertise, hopefully, that some of these people bring to bear and the benefit that tax payers result, and -- >> tesla was up last week and another $20 today at 341, so that's what you are talking about, is it not? >> well, lazard is up a lot,

too. >> i was not going there. >> pretty amazing. >> yeah, and i am not against these people being -- >> all the subsidies, they are all going to tesla now -- not true, but i think tesla will do okay. >> i think there were many groups that became too pure about, owea potential conflict if you look at it from this particular angle. we could go too far the other way. it's something worth watching. i have not seen anything particularly troubling. howard lutnig is a friend of mine, and i feel like that report was offsetting. >> we have to see about the my mergers. the time is now, and go do what you are supposed to do -- >> no paying customers in this room. >> you are back.

you are back. when we come back, we will take a deeper dive into m&a, and we have a conversation that peter may stick around just to watching. we will get into all the details behind the bitcoin move. we're coming back after this.

this morning. let's take a look at the futures. they are higher once again even after the huge gains we saw last week for the markets. looks like the dow futures are up by 180 points. the nasdaq indicated up by just over 75. the bond market is closed today for veterans day. amazon reportedly looking to squeeze more efficiency out of the delivery drivers.

the company is developing smart glasses to help guide them, and they can be told to turn right, turn left, avoid an elevator or avoid a dog outside. it could be years before the glasses are ready, but anytime the drivers can shave off a delivery time even if it's just a second or two, it is better for amazon. these are prototypes. same with snaps glasses. there will be a day and i think it's coming to us sooner. >> do you still have the apple things? >> the goggles? >> yeah. >> i have the old meta ones, too. the apple is heavy so you can lie down and watch a movie like that, maybe, but i don't find

that often. >> i find myself able to do that with the 75-inch screen -- >> but you have to put it on your ceiling. >> no, just a pillow behind me. mackenzie, was there ever a time when you said, why am i going to be a crypto expert? that's a big risk. now look at you. 82,000. >> yeah, in 2017 i was talking to bitcoin advisers in venezuela to make ends meet. traders are now betting over $2.9 billion on bitcoin, and that's on the popular derivatives. ether eclipsed bitcoin's rise at 30% in the last seven days. on the back of the u.s.

elections it saw a swell of pro bit company markets. institutions and their clients pile into the bitcoin trade post election, coinbase and robinhood are moving higher premarket and most bitcoin minors are seeing double digit percentage gains as well. donald trump, remember, promised all future bitcoin will be mined in the u.s. and pledged to wrap out the infrastructure and transmission infrastructure, which is a great thing. he also allowed to fire fcc chair, gary tkpwepbz lure. >> thinking about michael saler, and all along what his viewpoint

has been and how he was not shy at all. he almost in real life has laser eyes. almost in real life. but the stackersat this point anybody who ha stacking or hoelgtsing is on top of the world. >> essentially the u.s. government has $16 billion of bitcoin on its balance seat it amassed through the seizure operations, but what donald trump is talking about do something not only holding that but talking to a senator and her team to put into legislation to buy 1 bitcoin and it will be held by the u.s. government and will be compared to gold terms. >> either you are just really excited about your job or you

are orange pilled, one or the other. you eat it up, do you not? >> i do. i think that especially that promise to fire the fcc chair on day one, that's why you see stocks like robinhood doing so well. you have robinhood that may not -- >> i saw anthony, which we had a fun show on friday, and he's mad at elizabeth warren and took it out on her and was tweeting about her and her anti-bitcoin stance being part of -- not really the election loss but at least involved and taking her to task. >> i think there were a lot of things. >> but among other things. >> 280 crypto lawmakers elected

to congress and $250 million raised by that this cycle. >> yeah, and vlad will be with us on tomorrow. and coin-base ceo, brian armstrong. >> it will be awesome. when we come back, take-two ceo, strauss zelnickwill join us on the latest report. > >>first, former u.s. assistant attorney general will join us when we come back.

joining us to talk about what antitrust policy could look like in a second trump term, the former u.s. assistant attorney general at the doj antitrust division under trump, makan delrahim, and this is his first tv interview since last week's election. we were just talk to peter orszag, and there's a sense that

deal making may be on the comeback in a very big way. do you agree or see it that way at this point? >> good morning, andrew. thank you for having me back. i do agree. i think what you will have is, i think, more predictability in some of the regulatory reviews, whether it's a regulatory agency outside of antitrust or the two antitrust agencies, and i think you will have some confidence you will have, perhaps remedies and mergers and the greater ability to have confidence to invest in these types of transaction. >> there's big questions about cases being brought today both by lina khan at the ftc and some at the doj against big take, and do you think those cases continue to move forward at a pace or slow down or get pulled? what happens? >> i think most cases will continue at least in the short-term. you are going to have -- part of

that will be on the personnel that will be in those positions. they will take a cold hard look. if they believe it's regulatory overreach, i anticipate the new assistant attorney general, new attorney general will pare back some of the cases. i was not a huge fan of the case and it ended up in the supreme court with a case that was not good for enforcement or predictability in the marketplace, and i think you will see those types of cases be pulled back. otherwise, it will be business as usual for the time being. >> there was a comment that president-elect trump made recently about google, and he said you want fair competition but don't want to bust up the company and ruin it, so you look

at the case against google or apple and others, and do you think trump's view of this changes that dynamic? >> was know, i was the one that opened up those two cases. i won't comment on any specific case, but i think what you have to take a look at is look at these cases and what will be -- the limits of the law. i think any case that is pending, they will take a look at it and look at the resources the government has and what is the right outcome, you know, making sure you have the incentives to innovate and can compete fairly in the marketplace. i think those cases are continuing through the court system and they will make those decisions based on what it is rather than you will have new folks in place who may not be as, you know, as much intentrend

in the outcome of the case. >> one area of attention has been the media industry, and that's the industry -- here we are on tv, and lot of folks have been talking about the need for consolidation, and during the last administration the view that there was not that kind of activity for the kind of consolidation, and do you see that shifting under trump? >> i think each case will be case by case. i represent one of the parties in the paramount transaction, and so that will go on. what you will see is a case like the standard case there of tegna, and you see it was a rule

compliant transaction, but what happened was they used the proceeds to kill the deal, and you will see things that saved jobs that got held up in the regulatory process because of the regulatory overreach of the administration, and i think those will be curtailed. >> there have been questions about lina khan. there's a general sense she won't be in this role, but some people out there say, look, j.d. vance said a lot of positive things about lina khan. what do you think? >> well, look, lina certainly is somebody who has the intellect and added vigor over the ftc, and i would be shocked if she remains in the position. typically as normal course,

those types of positions you resign and let the new president appoint the replacement, and so somebody is going to have to resign come january 20th just -- that's the normal procedure. i don't know exactly what the new administration is going to think about her as opposed to other commissioners, but i would be surprised if she remains in that position rather than somebody that the new administration would want in that role. >> what about antitrust doctrine that was shifted under this administration, jonathan canner, your successor, and lina khan and others put together an outline explaining how an antitrust policy should be enforced in the country and some thought it went too far and others were supportive of it. does that go away, get pulled off the table or does the next

person in that job eliminate the document or re-write the document? >> there's a number of documents, and i think you are referring to the merger guidelines they put in place and they repealed the merger guidelines i put in place, the vertical merger guidelines and remedies they withdrew. i think by all objective views of those guidelines, they didn't create transparency for the marketplace, and they said here is what is going to be, we will have the maximized role, and it didn't do -- it didn't provide transparency in how the government operates. we had a number of those in place. i did not update the merger guidelines. we continued to use the obama administration's latest update and there were incremental

updates for new thinking and legal cases that came up rather than trying to re-write the law and i think that's what happened here in the last administration, some of the efforts were viewed as re-writing the law rather than writing for trapnsparency. >> there are many excited about the consolidation among banks, and i am not talking about some of the big banks taking over small banks but talking about smaller regional bank deals, and the flip side of that in this country, we have treasured our community banks and that banking system. how do you think this administration will think about that? >> well, the banking system, it's a complex regulatory review done by the federal reserve, and the occ and that's -- that type

of analysis with the bank mergers was stuck with the analysis from 40 years before, and we started that process in 2020 and i think there was a new review of how those would get done under the current administration. i don't think that has been completed yet. my guess is you will step back and take a look at everything happening in the markets, with a new level of innovation happening in that industry, and looking at does it make sense to stop some of these transactions. the level of it investment, you need to have the scale to compete. >> what do you think about -- it was not over regulated, and this administration looked at private equity differently and there's a

role of private equity in the health care industry, rolling up doctors and other services like that which appears to have increased prices in many places. do you think there will be a continued crackdown in that space? >> i think there might be, you know, a retreat on the way private equity is viewed in antitrust cases. i think there's almost an allergic reaction where private equity was looked at like the old gordon gecko, break up a company and squeeze it down. that's not how private equity today does, and they try to invest and earn a return for their investors and lps, and what we did in 2020 in the merger guidelines that a judge actually cited was that every case should be looked at on a case by case basis, and equity should be determined on the

markets whether it's a buyer or -- sometimes they will bring the expertise and the ability to change structures, and i think that's what we will go back to. i don't think the current administration's, you know, almost allergic reaction to them particularly in certain sectors will continue on. >> we have to go. i have one final question, which is you intervened in the time warner and at&t transaction, and there was a perception donald trump didn't want that deal to go through, and given all the things that has happened now and what has happened to the media industry, do you think that was a mistake? >> not at all. the settlements i personally offered to randal stevenson, who did not take would have saved it, and it's my understanding that time warner's board was not aware of the settlement offers made at the justice department. i think there were mistakes made in that and i don't think it was made by the justice department. >> great to talk to you this

morning. appreciate your perspective in all of this and i am sure and hope to talk to you again as anings play themselves out. thks again. >> thank you so much. and up next, take-two ceo, strauss zelnick joins us on the state of the gaming industry. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

when nvidia game developer, take two interactive posted the fiscal numbers last week, strauss zelnick reminded shareholders that "grand theft auto 6" coming next fall, though no release date. strauss zelnick joins us now. good to see you. >> thank you. >> and the reverse aging guy, and we watch it with you when we come in here, but we are not envious or anything. you stress, we're an

entertainment company and not a politics company and then you go on in six different ways to say this is going to be good because the ftc was too heavy handed. is that fair to say? >> i think it is fair to say. maybe not heavy handed but regulatory system, and impeded deals that ultimately got done but were delayed and were more expensive as a result. >> and may -- >> including in our space. >> and may have been wins for consumers, the two -- may have been wins for everyone involved, so there was -- what was the -- what was misguided, in other words? >> i believe so. >> so, what does that mean your future looks like, given what your competition is now with -- i mean, i can't believe that deal got done, microsoft activision, but what do you need to do? >> we're an organic growth story going forward for the next couple years. we've already said that we expect to have sequential growth in fiscal '26 and '27 and to set

new records and that will build up our balance sheet and our history is that we've made very strategic acquisitions when we believe they were a great strategic fit and were accretive to our numbers. the zinga deal really positioned us to be what we are now, which is the number two play in the entertainment business worldwide. we don't need to do a deal to bulk up the company further. we should be able to grow just fine on our own for the foreseeable future. >> gaming companies are looking at the same thing that all companies are looking at now. i don't know what media is going to look like. i have no idea. we're part of media, and i have no idea what it's going to look like. i have no idea what media is going to do to a.i. or gaming. how does it change what take two is going to pursue? >> old media is flat or declining. new media is super-charged and growing, which is why we've oriented ourselves to new media for the past couple decades and that's worked out really well

and i expect it to work out well in the future. in terms of a.i., look, the interactive entertainment business has been in a.i. forever, and let me just remind you, a.i. stands for artificial intelligence, which is an oxymoron. there is no such thing. it's just a description of a digital tool set, and that digital tool set will affect every part of our lives in the same way that when we got smartphones, they affected every part of our lives. >> how does it affect us right now with take two interactive's games and what will it in two or three years? >> i would love to say it's going to make things cheaper, quicker, better or easier to make hits. i don't think that's the case. all of our tools do help us become more efficient, and that's a part of our three-part strategy, creativity, innovation, efficiency. that said, it will be commoditized. everyone is going to have access to the same tools. that is the history of tool sets. what it means is our creative people will be able to do fewer mundane tasks and turn their attention to the really creative tasks. >> they'll be the ones doing the

creative decisions on this. >> absolutely. the machines can't make the creative decisions for you. >> the strike's still going on, the sag-aftra strike is still in process with video game publishers. >> that's right. >> is it affecting -- can you do everything you need to do while the strike the strike's still going on? >> so far, we can, because it only affected production on titles that started after 2023. we would like that strike to come to an end. we believe we have great labor relations, and as a reminder, 24 out of 25 proposals have already been agreed upon, so we feel somewhat confident we'll be able to reach common ground, and we have enormous respect for writers, directors, and talent. we want to have a deal that makes sense for all parties. >> we just had peter on here and macon, talked about m&a and

dealmaking the and regulatory environment. your company has been speculated about as an acquirer or acquiree, but there's also been a view that it might be tough, that the regulatory environment wouldn't look fondly upon that. do you think the world has changed, and what does that mean for you? >> look, our history of being an independent company is pretty terrific, and the history of diversified entertainment companies in the past two decades, not so terrific. so, i think our destiny is to remain independent and continue to grow. that said, we're a public company. we're here for the shareholders, and we'll act, you know, in an appropriate way if an opportunity presents itself on either side. >> have there been deals you've wanted to do yourself, though, as an independent company, other institutions or businesses that you wanted to buy in the last four years where you talked to your lawyers and they said, strauss, this is unlikely to ever actually happen? >> no, because we wanted to do the zinga deal, and we were able

to do that deal, and we didn't have any regulatory constraints. looking forward, though, i could imagine, in the prior regulatory regime, that that would become a problem, and i think at least for the next four years, that won't be a problem, nor should it be. >> as somebody who's spent a lot of time around the media world, do you think these deals are all going to happen? do you think that the next two years, we're going to see a whole slate of them? >> i think our regulatory regime is not suddenly going to go away, and i think deals that are anti-competitive won't happen, nor should they happen. i do think that it will be a more realistic, sensible environment than the one we had in the past four years. >> do you spend a lot of your time still thinking about game development? is that -- isn't that what you still need to do? >> absolutely. i spend most of my time thinking about how we're going to create the next hit. >> that hasn't changed at all? >> no, of course not. we need to be a hit-makinge thi.

who's "borderlands" for? is that yours? >> that's ours. >> you don't want to bring it out at the same time as "grand theft auto." >> the industry is pretty good about moving around release dates, but "borderlands" comes from gearbox. >> what about distribution? >> to be a competitive entertainment company, you obviously need the creative part. you also need marketing and distribution, and you need to feel that worldwide. that's why it's sort of left to a handful of big companies, really, to compete in entertainment. so, we have marketing and distribution, second to none. that said, our big competitors do as well. it's not unique. >> benjamin bratt is not reverse aging. benjamin button is reverse aging. >> i didn't correct you earlier. >> the l.a. laguw y is like, what is he talking about?

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let's get a final check on the markets this morning. right now, you see the dow futures up by about 170 points. s&p futures, up by 206789 the

na nasdaq up. this does come on big gains from last week. every one of the major averages up by at least 4.5%. also, if you check out crypto prices, that has been the other huge winner. bitcoin right now just below $82,000. all right, folks, that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures strong as the s&p looks to revisit 6,000 at the open, coming off the 50th record high of the year. congress returns for the lame duck. no data today. the bond market's closed for veterans day. our road map begins with the roaring bull rolling on. plus, as usual, keeping an eye on shares of tesla. they are popping once again