na nasdaq up. this does come on big gains from last week. every one of the major averages up by at least 4.5%. also, if you check out crypto prices, that has been the other huge winner. bitcoin right now just below $82,000. all right, folks, that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures strong as the s&p looks to revisit 6,000 at the open, coming off the 50th record high of the year. congress returns for the lame duck. no data today. the bond market's closed for veterans day. our road map begins with the roaring bull rolling on. plus, as usual, keeping an eye on shares of tesla. they are popping once again ahead of the open.

this is on the heels of what's a 29% surge for that company's shares just over the last week. and crypto's on a tear again. bitcoin hitting fresh highs, topping $82,000 this morning. coinbase, microstrategy, robinhood, among stocks all riding crypto's coat tails. let's begin with this post-election rally, definitely easy to keep a list of winners and losers since election day, guys. on the plus side, it will be tesla, bitcoin, banks, small caps. losers continue to be oil, china, volatility, down some 25% in the past week. >> i mean, some of the banks have been noting the similarities and differences between 2016 where the trump trade was very much on in a similar fashion. one difference is autos are up 13%, and you can thank elon musk for that and tesla even though, you know, some are saying this is broadly not going to be great for the auto industry as far as incentives on evs, for instance, which could go away, or maybe

that is good for the auto industry, because people don't really want evs as much. so, maybe that less regulation is a good thing, but also a more industrial policy and more tariffs, ultimately, could be good, so autos are up big. that's a difference. pharma, down 1% since the election, and that's a difference as well on the concerns around rfk and what position he might fill and then what he might do. mexico's up about 2% on the reshoring idea. europe, down 5% on tariffs, and that was a winner in the prior administration on the trump trade, so just some interesting differences, but overall, i think the feeling is very bullish. we had the best post-election one-day gain in the market in history, and bank of america did some analysis, david, and found that when that continues, or when that happens, it usually continues a few weeks later, few months later as well. sustainable, in other words. >> yeah. i mean, and by the way, the financials, of course, were -- went parabolic last week.

you can take a look at -- choose your name. goldman-sachs, for example, which is approaching a $200 billion market value. again, on the hopes for just a lot more activity, plainly spoken. m&a certainly amongst that, and that chorus continues every day in terms of the people i speak to, the expectations that not just pent-up demand, though there is plenty of that and then regular course, there will be companies that feel freer to pursue their dreams when it comes to consolidation. take a look at jpmorgan. that's goldman. these are month to date numbers, but you can see what we're talking about there in terms of that move up after the election. and then, carl, you know, musk comes up, as you might imagine, virtually, every conversation i have, and some believe he went from being the most consequential businessman on the planet to one of the top, let's call it two, most important people, period, three, i don't know where you want to rank him, but because of the importance

that conceivably he will have in terms of the execution of strategy by an incoming trump administration. he is far beyond that of just simply a businessman. we've talked about that many times anyway because of his influence in things like starlink and the war in ukraine and so many other areas, large government contractor via spacex and the like, but those who believe, buy musk at this point because he's a beneficiary. >> vice president musk, cnn said, he's been at mar-a-lago almost every day since the election, weighing in on these vetting calls, reports he was in on that call with putin, which then got some pushback, but today, wedbush does take tesla from $300 to $400. dan ives with a note out today. of course, we mentioned returning to a $1 trillion market cap on friday. as for m&a, david, great, great chart out of morgan stanley today. andrew takes a crack at what kind of bounce we might get in m&a. year-to-date announcements are up 25%. next year, they see an even

larger 50% gain in announcements, sponsors return, large cap deals return, cigna, humana today notwithstanding. >> we did getcigna reiterating it has no interest in pursuing a deal with humana. they indicated that on their conference call associated with their earnings as well. but carl, i've been saying it since we got the election results. i mean, there is going to be a lot of m&a. if there isn't, that would be a huge surprise. now, that said, interest rates play a role in that, certainly when it comes to private equity and/or sponsor deals and the like, and so we'll keep an eye, sara, on interest rates because that will be an important component here. we talk about the inflationary impacts of a number of the policies that may be pursued by an incoming trump administration, whether it is going to result in higher deficits, crowding out and/or, of course, what the tariffs and what role they will play in terms of inflation. so, we'll see, and the back and forth about the fed has been interesting as well, by the way, but m&a, no doubt, we're going to see more of it.

there will be certain deals that may not fit in the current landscape, but overall, the expectation is for a lot more deal making, so to speak. >> i was talking with the ceo of nasdaq on friday when i was at the pebble beach conference, not just m&a and more sponsor activity, but ipos as well. just the entire capital markets outlook has improved. >> they can hope for that. i think there's other things weighing against it. we've talked a lot about that, including the incredible growth of the private markets that just enable companies to stay private longer. yes, there are going to potential potentially be more, but i don't see why this year would have been any different. >> there were questions about the election and whether we'd get a certain result and which way it would go and not only did we get a certain and decisive result, but it went in the way of the market. the deregulatory agenda, you talk about it with m&a. every ceo is talking about it in their respective sector. i spoke to a cyber ceo, a

telecom -- >> but will that lead to more ipos? >> i think the general animal spirits kind of nature of a -- the regulatory environment over the last four years, having democrats in charge of -- we talk a lot about the ftc, but there's the occ and the fdic and the fcc and the epa and all of these have been overzealous when it comes to regulation, and i'm learning that has been actually hampering a lot of economic activity. so, an overall better environment on that front, what ceos are calling smarter regulation. what they mean isl less regulation. >> they certainly do. >> it overall helps the mood and the vibe. and as far as the ipo is concerned, election uncertainty removed, more friendly growth environment from the s.e.c., et cetera. >> oh, man, there's so much to talk about. let's get to the markets here, bring in tom lee at post nine, of course, fund strat global advisors managing partner, head of research.

s&p target for year-end, 6,300. great to see you, tom. you like to call them granny shots, easy plays, in your view. i have to imagine that list has gotten longer. >> yes. it has, but it's stayed around 35 names. but just high-quality names that are in the right sort of theme. we have seven themes and as long as they're in more than one theme, they become a granny shot. >> higher conviction, i imagine. >> yes, and these are names that most people are going to be familiar with, because they're large cap stocks. >> there's some discussion about cyclicals today, that they make sense, and people are looking to 2016 for analogs, but some argue there's not the commodity price support that you might have had in a prior cycle. you buy that? >> you don't necessarily need commodity prices to help cyclicals. >> energy, but even materials to some degree. >> that's right. so, for those, i would say, yes. i would say the outlook for energy stocks isn't great, as

good as people might expect under a trump presidency, just because expanded drilling has lowered oil prices, but for cyclicals like industrials and financials, for all the things you guys were discussing, a great environment, including m&a and deregulation. >> do you think there is real reflation risk in the next, say, six months? >> that is something that we can see how markets are repricing and there's a measure called one-year inflation, one-year forward, so -- which is, markets think one-year inflation is a year from now. that has been creeping up. it's actually now at 3.6. it's been a trigger point in the past where the market starts to worry, so whether it's the, you know, the deportation that's causing that or a fiscal, you know, fiscal spend, i'm not sure, but it is -- markets are starting to think about it. >> or more just better growth outlook could help inflation expectations rise. i guess where trump trade 1.0

ran into trouble was around trade policy, and once we see what he delivers there in terms of tariffs, something he's been very, very consistent on, do you think the market is looking past that, or everything else, the deregulation, the lower corporate taxes, is going to offset any weakness on trade? >> i mean, i think that if someone was trying to paint a negative picture, that's the tariffs and the trade is what's on people's minds, but of course, that's the one where we don't know what the ultimate sort of policies will be. i'm sure markets will actually provide a lot of realtime feedback, and i think that's going to help shape what the policy is, so i think in general, we should expect a pro business environment, one that's probably equity friendly as well. >> where are we on fundamentals and just, you know, in terms of this recent rally in terms of multiples and your expectations on earnings as we head into next year? >> i mean, earnings season, i think, actually, as we're wrapping up, has still been very solid. as you know, the drag on

earnings had been energy and some of the commodity groups, but groopz like industrials and tech are producing good numbers. i think next year, the outlook should be good because the cost of money is coming down, we're seeing housing activity pick up, and if there's mergers, this is much better for small caps, and small cap earnings growth has been around 40%, so i think it still sort of guides us to the same trades, which is we want to be more cyclical and then also look at things like small caps and bitcoin. >> small caps. mergers -- just give me a little bit more on why small caps are going to be a bigger beneficiary. >> part of it is the backdrop. small caps have underperformed, but really the largest margin in 25 years. they're now trading at 10 times median pe and for the s&p, that's almost 18 times, so a 7 pe discount. small cap earnings growth is faster, and not only that, but roughly 44% of it is what i would call very cyclical, and

that's things like regional banks and industrials. that's going to -- that's a bigger weight than in the s&p, and then finally, you know, there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, and i think if people are looking for breadth expansion, that's small caps. >> they also don't have the trade exposure. they get the benefit from lower taxes and regulation without the tariffs also. feels like they're in the sweet spot. >> that's right, and the margin of outperformance could be sizable. they've underperformed by almost 100 percentage points so i think you could recover that over the next few years. >> we were mentioning elon musk a moment ago, and over the weekend, he endorsed this notion from senator lee about end the fed, essentially. "journal" over the weekend with a piece about powell preparing or being ready to defend a removal if, in fact, he's asked to leave. do you think the bond market would revolt at any kind of attempts to influence the fed or re-executivize the fed? >> absolutely. the fed is the most powerful entity in the world and part of it is its independence and it's something that even the bond

market is scared of. i think changing this -- the structure of the central bank would be not good for capital markets. >> we'll see where that goes, tom. so much to digest and we're just getting started, really. talk to you soon. >> talk to you soon. >> tom lee, thanks. let's move on to the latest inflation data out of china, where that country's annual singles day shopping event is now under way. i can remember attending it many, many years ago, of course, back when jack ma was running alibaba. let's get more from eunice yoon, who's been to more than her share of many [ singing in a non-english language ] singles days in beijing. >> i was thinking about that, how different singles day is compared to when you were here. it's been a day to celebrate the chinese shopper. it would culminate in a big headline number at the end of the period. however, this time, not so much. in fact, alibaba pr told us they

do not intend to release a number of the sales that go across its sites tonight. jd hasn't gotten back to us, but they also have not been publishing that number for the past couple of years. mainly, there is concern, though they don't say that themselves, but you know, really discussing a slowing economy has become politically sensitive here as well as flaunting a wealth and money. so, in terms of some of the trends, though, that we are seeing that people are discussing that could be of interest to our viewers, one is that the home appliances are being eyed very closely because the government has been rolling out subsidies for trade-ins as part of stimulus. sportswear like lulu lemon, outdoor gear getting some attention because of the fact that people are looking for and have been looking for experiences as opposed to luxury as they continue to downgrade. and then finally, another

interesting trend is something called a micro-trend, and toys and collectibles. these have become quite popular, especially among younger chinese because of what they describe as an emotional comfort and excitement they get, especially when they open up blind boxes, they say. so, those are some of the trends that we are seeing forming. most analysts, though, expect that in terms of the overall sales that we are going to get, at best, low single-digit growth. guys? >> yeah, i mean, what is the deal with the chinese consumer, and what is the thinking now as far as what the government might do to stimulate it? i read some analysis last week like they weren't going to do a big bazooka after trump got elected because that would look weak, they're preparing for weakness on the trade front and tariffs, so what are they waiting for? >> it's really difficult to know at this point. there are so many variables that the policymakers are weighing, but today, in the markets, there was a lot of frustration with

the stimulus package. we talked about this as well. $1.4 trillion, but it's basically looking like a debt restructuring as opposed to anything that would really help consumers. so, because of that, we saw a lot of this -- the consumer stocks down, trip.com, for example, yum china, and then, on top of that, we had the chinese inflation numbers, which show that october cpi, as well as ppi, missing, and not really looking good for the outlook for the economy. >> yeah. trade surplus numbers also getting some attention today here, eunice. thank you, eunice yoon. when we come back, a moment of silence at the big board in honor of our veterans.

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we are expecting some lighter regulation. we'd already been having some pretty constructive discussions with chair powell, and we're heading, i think, in a better place with basel iii. that will help access to credit. that will benefit the consumer. that will benefit smaller and larger companies in their access and cost of funding, so we're expecting, broadly, this to be pro growth and beneficial. >> that was citigroup ceo jane fraser talking with me friday in pebble beach, california. you can hear the optimism there around lower regulation and more constructive policies.

that was in response to a question i asked her about whether the stock move, her stock was up 7% last week, made sense. you know, for citi in particular, and i think wells fargo is in this bucket as well, these seem to be bigger beneficiaries, because they have been under more scrutiny from a regulatory perspective, under more punishments. i asked her if she was looking forward to getting rid of the consent orders, for instance, with the new republican-led regulators, which obviously she wouldn't comment on specifically, but it has been an issue for citi, so much so that in the last quarter, where we also talked about fraser's transformation, she's been undergoing here at the bank, she said there were signs of progress and all five of the businesses. the stock sold off, david, because there was this confusion about regulatory policy. she had to clarify that they are not under a new -- under any sort of asset cap because senator elizabeth warren had been calling for something like that. she did clear that up. she cleared it up again in this interview and said they're on track here with the progress working on particular stories like the wealth business and the

consumer business in terms of boosting profitability, but clearly, a lighter regulatory touch would help a bank like this that has been struggling with that. i said, for instance, has the regulation hurt your transformation progress? she said, look, it would be better if we didn't have to deal with it. >> what about the transformation process itself, sara, to the extent that you can look through the last earnings? are there real signs of progress? sure, the regulatory is one side, but the execution is the other side and i think there are still questions. >> look, i mean, they have to boost profitability, for instance, in the consumer bank to compete with jpmorgan and a bank of america in the wealth business, to compete with a ubs. there are signs that it's working, but clearly, this is a big shift for citi, and you know, if you look at measures like valuation of book value, for instance, they've got some ways to go to catch up. >> meantime, first opening bell of the week, going to happen in abt reana lfinesouthe d ha mut.

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let's get set for the opening bell. at the big board, it is members of the united states navy on the navy's newest warship, honoring veterans day. and at the nasdaq, it's thayer leadership, chief executive group presenting their annual patriots in business award as we will look for the s&p to reclaim 6,000, which it briefly got above on friday. 6,015 is where we'll begin things. that doesn't put into context some of these moves in recent days, whether it's tesla or coinbase or today, microstrategy. >> if you're looking for plays on bitcoin, that's what's working. bitcoin might be leading this trump trade right now as we see $82,000 breached. >> it's not just bitcoin itself, sorry to cut you off, sara. it's the bitcoin miners, interestingly.

they're smaller companies, but they have been big beneficiaries as well. and interesting on the bitcoin miners, there's another play which involves getting them to actually -- they have -- they have the cpus, they have the chips, and so would they be better off in a way converting from mining bitcoin, which is proving fairly beneficial right now as the price moves up, to being used to obviously power large language models and the like. so, there's kind of a dual approach here that you don't seem to be able to lose on as bitcoin moves up. either just keep mining bitcoin because you're going to do better, or change your approach, and that, we're seeing as well for certain companies. others, though, may be pushed to do that in some way in terms of hey, all those cpus, you may be better off and the power deals, let's move that to being useful for the hyperscalers. so, it's been a small group, but it's one that bears watching.

>> i think tesla, too, we should just say because it's at the top of the market again, up 7.25%. the elon musk bet on trump winning and paying off as carl mentioned. he's been -- he's seemingly hanging out at mar-a-lago. i saw a picture of him with trump's granddaughter on the golf course. but as far as what does it mean for the stock, dan ives of wedbush took up the price target another $100 today saying there's a trillion dollar opportunity here in self-driving, and he thinks the regulatory agenda will move in his favor because musk will have influence over that, and he sees that obviously as a big upside and sees the timeline coming forward as well for when tesla's going to realize that sort of robo taxi dream, again, trillion dollar market. he also -- he sort of buried in the bottom of the note, which i think was interesting, that he thinks that china -- on the china tariff front, both tesla and apple will have some sort of carveout, which i do think will

be interesting to note. apple is worth watching as well on this trump trade. most of the apple products are manufactured in china. yes, they have been trying to diversify into places like india, but according to a note i read over the weekend, they're only 14% there in india. they want to get to the 25% by 2028. but china tariffs is obviously going to be a huge issue when it comes to consumer electronics. that's why best buy has been underperforming, for instance, in this trump trade as well. >> elon's net worth has hit heights never seen before on the planet. by any individual. and i continue to bring this up, i know, but i don't believe it's included in the compensation -- in the overall numbers yet is the exercisable options under the 2018 compensation package. they're exercisable at $23.34. 304 million options, and he's going to get them, most likely, but we are still waiting for that from the chancellor in delaware. but add that, and he's, carl, i

mean, he could be approaching $400 billion net worth. >> we've talked about world's first trillionaire. who has a better shot than elon? tech crunch has one example of to the degree he is rolled into a government advisory role, it will be structured so he does retain his ownership of tesla, of x, of xai, probably not a surprise there. >> nobody's expecting necessarily acabinet position, more of an advisory role, for instance. i do think it's -- i have been watching him on x, weigh in on things like recess appointments, which is a hot topic after president-elect trump has called for that, just to get these appointments in faster rather than going through the process for the senate. he's weighed in on who senate leaders should be. >> we have rick scott and the fed. he's all over every bit of policy construction here in these early days. >> and he runs tesla, and he runs, or at least oversees spacex, and he tweets or posts hundreds of times a day, and then he's got a number of other companies, whether it's

neuralink or the boring company. i'm not quite sure how he manages to find the time, but apparently he does. >> financials are at the top of the market, guys, again, along with consumer discretionary, thank you to tesla. but financials up another 1% on this idea. we talked about deregulation, it is worth mentioning on basel iii end game because this is the topic du jour when it comes to bank regulation, and the expectation, according to some of the research notes now, is that it will be punted. it will be delayed even further. we already got more favorable terms in the last proposal, a 9% increase in capital versus the original 19% increase in capital. will that come down even further in a more friendly regulatory, republican-led administration or will it be delayed further? that's something that i think a lot of bank investors are clearly looking forward to, and perhaps that was a bit of an jooef overhang. >> the fed playing an important role in that. i'm curious, sara, to get your

reaction to some of the reported back and forth or the preparations that fed chair powell may make for president-elect trump pressuring him to leave the job and things of that nature. what's your take? >> he's so -- he was so defiant on this issue in the news conference, almost went out of his way to be defiant, and i think it highlights that fed chair powell -- and this is something i've heard from the fed as well -- they don't think president trump will have a path to eliminate him, legally, as fed chair, his term ends in early 2026, so president-elect trump will have an opportunity to name the next fed chair, but before that is over, he's not going to go down without a fight, and the way they interpret it is that the president would have to have cause to fire the fed chair, and cause is not doing a bad job on interest rates or doing a bad job on inflation. it's something way more serious and something that clearly fed chair powell intends to defend himself against. my point is, like a lot is being made of this, but fed chair powell has been pretty dovish, and he has lowered interest rates, and he had an opportunity

in the last meeting to, i don't know, hint more at a pause because the economy is so strong. he didn't necessarily do that. and even over the weekend, we heard from neil kashkari, he was speaking on cbs, and he also insinuated their next move is likely to be another cut. listen. >> the expectation is that we would do another interest rate cut in december. we need to actually see what the data looks like before reaching any conclusions, that's six weeks from now, but i think another rate cut is certainly possible, but ultimately, if the economy continues to perform well, a strong economy, a strong labor market, that's going to -- that's the outcome that we're all trying to achieve, and i don't think that's a partisan view. i think everybody's on board with trying to achieve that. >> so, guys, we're going to get cpi and ppi this week, and that will be important inputs into the fed's thinking around december and the path from here. i would just note what's happened in the last few weeks is higher for longer has been the trade in the markets, and

the equity market is fine with that so far. we've priced out a lot of rate cuts into next year on this idea that the growth outlook has really improved and possibly inflation expectations too, and that's where the fed chair could run into trouble with president trump if we see a spurt of inflation expectations get to more worrisome levels, then what? we know president trump likes a weak dollar and lower treasury yields. >> yeah. dollar index, approaching 105.5, highest since july. you mentioned some of the hyperscalers, guys. nvidia, couple nice notes. one is piper makes it a top pick. and then, this melius note is pretty interesting. ben reitzes goes to $185. he says, "we're more excited about blackwell than we were before. giving up on hopper is like giving up on apple after i phone 1 or 2, and they--" they have f

estimates. >> over what period of time? >> year on year. that's including oracle, amazon, meta. i'm not sure how it compares to some of the morgan stanley numbers we got. >> that was over -- right. they were $300 or -- i got to check the numbers. you know, something that's been interesting, though, that i have sort of been trying to focus on, there was an information story from last week. i also listened to this podcast that mark andreasen and ben horowitz do. it was about -- or at least they raised the idea that the progress of the large language models, particularly at openai, is slowing dramatically from one model to the next, so to speak, and the information in the story also talks about orian, the upcoming flagship model, its code name.

its performance did exceed that of prior models but the increase in quality was far smaller compared with the jump between chatgpt 3 and chatgpt 4. those are the last two models, of course. and andreasen said the same thing on that podcast. just flagging it, because it's kind of interesting. if -- are they running out of data? what is the reason? is it true? is there really a slowing in progress because that wasn't expected if, in fact -- and they're using as many or more cpus so it's not like they're -- it's a chip-related issue. it simply may be a data-related issue or unclear. certainly, for me, unclear, carl, but that would have big ramifications if the progress suddenly stops. >> i know. and the other -- not to get too far afield from what you're saying, andreasen called america an economic coiled spring. we should be growing at at least

4 and ideally 6 to 8-plus percent on gdp. he says growth has been brutally suppressed since before i was born. that would be interesting, but then we get back to these -- we had these discussions during the first trump term, and that is, you need people. and how you going to get that kind of growth without people? >> right. well, maybe it's going to be robots. >> generative a.i. >> but again, maybe if it stops prog pro progressing, sara, that's the point. i'll listen to many experts on this. i have no idea, but that story, citing people at chatgpt as the sources and then andreasen basically just saying it on the podcast as well, i thought was interesting. >> it is, because we all think it's on a one-way ticket, faster and higher. >> correct. and by the way, the rate of change will only increase. >> exponentially. >> so, it perhaps bears watching. >> the coiled spring argument is reflected in the market. >> and in that scott bessent editorial in the "journal" today. >> he's campaigning.

i think that this is hedge fund manager, one of the presumptive considerations for treasury. >> top -- certainly in the top list. >> i hear his name. john paulson. his name as well, out there. >> those seem to be the two key contenders. >> besson's point is that strong dollar, strong stock market, treasury yields, it's telling you about the bullishness and optimism around the growth story now that trump has been elected, also flipping the senate, very close to getting the house. thisidea that all the economists -- and he really calls out the nobel laureates who were warning of doom and gloom if trump gets elected because of the trade policy and the tariff policy and the market is telling you the exact opposite, continues to rise. we're past 44,000 on the dow, by the way. see if we get a close above that level. 6,000 on the s&p, big round numbers we are watching, but this overall view, carl, that we're in for a now multiyear

expansion, and that wasn't the case. remember the soft landing? people aren't talking about a soft landing anymore. they're talking about a multiyear economic boom where -- >> 8%, sara? we're going to get 8% growth? >> nominal, or what are we talking about here? the fact that we were slowing down to the 2s and below that, and we could sustain or go higher than that level, i think that's what people are talking about right now. jobs will be really interesting. the november jobs report in first week of december because if companies really are feeling that bullish, then you should see that reflected. >> yeah, and then there's the added question of the they really do take a scalpel to government staffing and all the obvious waste and fraud that's embedded in it, how much of a subtraction from economic growth is that. >> or deportation. >> talk about people. >> full speed ahead when you talk about people. obviously, already president-elect trump's already

anointed his -- >> border czar. >> and stefanik to u.n. ambassador. >> interesting also that he said he ruled out nikki haley and mike pompeo, which wall "wall s journal" says they don't want competition for jd vance. >> we talked about how we expect deal-making to increase. one deal that's not going to happen is cigna buying humana. it keeps not happening. there, you see, i'm ruling out. why? well, the company, in its earnings -- carl had mentioned this at the top of the show briefly. you are seeing a reaction in both stocks, cigna up, humana down. earlier this year, of course, there was this -- it was reported as a possibility, i think, "the wall street journal" at the time, i soocited a couplf large shareholders who said no way would they support that, given the huge discrepancy in terms of pe at the time, but since then, humana, we talked about this. you can see what happened to the

stock price not that long ago, lost its stars for medicare advantage. and so, it makes its earnings into the years ahead very much uncertain, very difficult to sort of build any real case or model, frankly, in terms of what you're going to pay if you're an acquirer, but cigna makes it very clear, confirms it is not -- put it in print -- not pursuing a combination with humana. you can see the respective market caps there of the two companies, of course, but yeah, i think humana may have some issues when it does lose those stars, because you get an immediate reduction of 5% on what i think is 60% of their revenue base. >> another pair of health care movers, completely opposite ends of the winners and losers list today, is bristol myers and abvie. they had results from a phase 2 trial on a schizophrenia drug that did not meet their end point. bristol myers, on the other hand, at the top of the market,

up 12% because they have a candidate that already gained fda approval in september, the first drug in its class, so this was the abvie rival on schizophrenia, so you can see a clear reaction. this goes back to an acquisition that bristol made to acquire the drug, ultimately, as car xt when it comes to treating this disease in adults with scopsychc behavior, so big movers there. >> david mentions consolidation in various industries. little upgrade of wbd this morning as wolf goes back to peer perform. david, they do point to, obviously, the election being a game-changer, and then more openness among carriers to dtc bundles and that will, obviously, boost optionality there. stock, not quite back to the highs of last week, but you're not far away from the best levels here, david, since february. >> yeah. coming well off the lows. of course, still down some 17% for the year, but to your point,

carl, a bit of a rally. consolidation, again, certainly would be a potential beneficiary if, in fact, that is something they can consider in a more fulsome way at this point, given the changes in regulatory approach. >> yeah. when we come back, we'll take a look at the windfall for ceos of mega cap companies thanks to this post-election rally. 008 is up 400. 6,s&p. no clues from the bond market, but we're back in a minute. it is truly about the journey. (cheering) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1.

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get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. post-election rally is driving stocks to new milestones. cnbc editor robert frank is taking a look at how big a windfall companies are experiencing since

president-elect trump's victory. i know who tops the list for sure, robert. >> topping it even higher, you've got. it. the top ten billionaires gaining $100 billion in health since the election and half of that as you guessed went to elon musk, the world's richest man seeing his net worth soaring by over $50 billion just over the past week now at $314 billion. now he is still short of his all-time high in 2021 of 340 billion, but he is the only person ever to have a net worth of over $300 billion. he has that pay package now valued at $98 billion. so if that is approved, musk will be worth over $430 billion. larry ellison, also a big gainer over the past week up $18 billion. even the billionaires with a former strained relationship with the former president enjoying a big gain.

jeff bezos adding $10 billion to his net worth and he is the second richest with 230 billion and mark zuckerberg to $209 billion and he made $5 billion in net worth in the days after the election thanks to this rally. the only top ten billionaire who has lost wealth is lvmh chair bernard arnault, he is down $5 billion on a trade war on european luxury goods, but david, just to put in perspective, elon musk has basically gained what he paid for twitter plus $6 billion just in the last week. >> yeah. that's right. i forgot about twitter. in fact, we were discussing it earlier, and i mentioned this pay package numerous times, almost worth $100 billion. quickly on gates. the gates foundation has done an enormous amount of good in the

world and they've spent an enormous amount of money, but robert, what about the math if he'd held on his stake in microsoft i think he'd be a trillion trillionaire at this point. >> i don't know about a trilltri trillionaire and you add in the divorce if he'd stayed married and not given away any shares i would think he would be at musk or above it. >> bezos also, right? he gave mackenzie plenty, but didn't seem to suffer for it. >> no. no. they're both doing okay. >> okay. robert, thank you. robert frank. meantime, nice opening rally here to start the week. a lot is headed our way, of course, not much in the way of earnings. i think 90% of the s&p is in. >> home depot and amat and live

nation tonight. >> home depot, we are also getting a cpi, ppi and retail sales later in the week on friday which will be key inputs for the fed in terms of the next meeting and where we stand. >> rhtig now, s&p 6,009. don't go anywhere.

net ♪ ♪ ♪ good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "skwaub" "squawk on the street" with carl quintanilla and david faber. the dow is the leader today up another 1% higher than 44k. goldman sachs, salesforce, caterpillar, those are all of the big contributors to the dow move. gold g goldman adding and financials in the lead as well as des correctionary.

weakness in the chip names and nvidia is giving some back, broadcom, apple, amazon and tesla is helping with another strong gain post-election, but most of the other information technology names are a little bit weaker. remember, the bond market is closed which is why we're not showing you treasurys for this veterans day. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are big movers, tesla, shares coming off their best week for the performance of the year and adding to those gains pretty sharply up another 7%. cigna and humana heading in opposite directions after cigna said it would not pursue a possible combination with humana and crypto-related stocks. the top of the market, bitcoin hitting 80k for the first time this weekend and sharply above there boosting napesmes like coinbase, and continuing to buy.

as far as the market, we continue to be in this state of the optimism over the results of the election combined with a federal reserve that has been cutting interest rates and continues to signal more rate cuts are on the way and that's why you see groups like consumer names, financials, small caps, i would add in there, as well, really tied to the health of the u.s. economy doing better. i was at this conference on friday speaking with ceos across industries, telecom, cyber, banking and tech. it was overall a tmt conference, about what the new outlook and the new prospects for an administration and congress mean to their business. they were practically giddy. listen to what i heard. >> it was a good week in the markets, and it's on the back of a quick, clear and a decisive result which i think really helped drive was anticipation of a pro-growth agenda. >> we know often what u.s. policy will be. i think it will lean in favor of

innovation. it will lean in in fiavor of economic growth. >> we look forward to work with this administration and the fcc that's coming up and we expect a productive relationship and we have one now. >> you will likely see some decisions which will possibly accelerate investment in a.i. and development of the country. >> they have a pro-growth agenda and they're focused on how we drive growth and innovation to the country. that's good for the country, and that's good for the markets and that's good for us. >> i mean, clearly, the deregulatory piece is what a lot of these ceos are anticipating and looking forward to even in a.i. i was talking to arvin krishna ceo of ibm there, and president-elect trump has promised to roll back, for instance, the executive order that they did on a.i., not necessarily that it's holding things back, but it's a lighter touch regime because the focus and the goal should be competing with china and letting our companies excel on that front, and i think that a lot of what

you're seeing in the market has to do. yes, lower corporate taxes if we get a 15% rate for companies that bring business back to, in, but the regulatory regime and just how much it has been, i think, punishing and overzealous in the last administration is something that we're seeing reflected against the market and across sectors. >> punishing is hard to say across the market at an all-time high. >> that's why it surprised me how much i hear that it's been holding back business. i'm sure you guys talk to ceos that won't be named that are looking at deals that they would not have looked at now because this next ftc might look at it differently or this next doj might look at it differently, just one example of activity that could be unlocked and when i say punishing, look at the banks and look at the move in the banks since the election on this view that lighter touch on

basel 3 regulations and the cfpb, this hidden bankroll -- or hidden bank fee rule or late fee rule could unlock potentially much more revenue if it gets reversed. >> no doubt. >> there's consolidation among the regional banks and it's the general expectation of an increase in business more than necessarily, i'm not dismissing it and the regulatory burden so to speak being removed. a lot of that is in the fed and the fed faces political pressure, as well when it comes to bank regulation and there are also other regulatory agencies like the fdic. >> there are plenty. you can go for all of your different acronyms. >> they do have a regulatory function, yes. >> and last spring or two springs ago we were glad it was there. >> no, iknow. that's going to be the trick is not going too far where we're worried about what the impact on the consumer and just one more

chart i'll leave you with from julian emanuel of isi is the uncertainty factor that has been lifted around the election which we talked a lot about and how that impacted business, but for small business in the past and in particular we're looking at small business, not necessarily big business, uncertainty peaks at elections and then it comes down and that's the chart of the last few weeks seen there, so another potential unlock in terms of investment and growth now that we've got this behind us. >> dow and s&p coming off their best week of the year. s&p topping 6k for the first time again today hitting its 50th all-time high this year. our senior markets commentator mike santoli is here to talk about whether it's a trump market makeover or the same old bull, mike? >> somewhere in the middle. it's the existing trends plus benefits. so that means the cyclical parts of this market were already outperforming. we already had a pretty good

agreement that we had a benign economic scenario and bonds and stock yields are rising along with the economic surprise index and you get this accelerant and the real burst of repricing toward the private sector has a much clearer runway, and it seems as if we're willing to front load and take credit for a lot of the anticipated policy positives for businesses right up front. so you see here, that was cyclicals versus defensive and then we went vertical. given that we already had a relatively fully valued market. we had credit spreads already at 25-year lows. therefore a very, very loose financial condition on that front. i think it just buys the market a little bit of slack for us to tolerate the highervaluation. you can make the case that, in fact, earnings have a little bit of upside into next year. you can make the case that it's just going to be a more wide participation and a spicier market. you're seeing that already. if the market isn't broken and the economy isn't wounded then this policy prescription can

kind of be seen as recreational in a way, and what i mean by that is crypto goes vertical, tesla goes vertical and goldman sachs goes vertical. the goldman sachs is stunning at this point because it is a strong chart and people think deals are everywhere. we are operating in the absence and the luxury of having the absence of details and knowing the frictional differences. so i think if we look on a tactical basis, these are want headfake moves and these are risking activity and the goldman sachs by one of the only long accounts in history, but you wait for the moment when it starts to look overheated, when you have a little bit of a re-think moment based on some of the details coming in. >> i mean, you could see where this rally might run into trouble, fundamentally, trade policy if we get more outlines of that and it looks more restrictive for growth. inflation is still the worry that we don't want to think

about, but if we are thinking about sharply higher growth rates, you know and policies like tariffs? >> 100%. what i am comforted by is that seems to be the way everyone is kind of -- they're not allowing themselves to look past that. people are saying higher rates and inflation would be the restraint on all of this. i don't think yields at these levels or the dollar at these levels are themselves really a hazard, right? they're kind of happening in the context of a pretty ben firm backdrop, but as we get into next year, private sector job growth has accelerated and sdoe that turn on a dime? what does this all mean for the fed? i think those are questions for a little bit down the road after we have this period of, you know, let's make sure the market doesn't run away without me. >> we get a cpi report this week. it's firmer and you don't think it matters? >> i don't think it matters a

lot, no. i think we could be at a point where we'll use any excuse to back off a little bit in the markets and maybe that could serve as that excuse, but i really don't think it would have to be way out of line for it to be a huge market inflexion point. >> mike, thank you for the setup. mike santoli. our next guest says a red wave politically could mean market records ahead. joining us to unpack expectation for the market as we head into a new administration, cfra res research strategist, sam stovall. welcome. how do you look at the re-rating of this market and how much low can it go? >> good morning, sara. i think contrary to popular belief, actually a red wave is the best thing for a republican president. when you look back to world war ii the average gain has been 13%. the split congress is usually best for a democratic president, but a red wave is best for republicans, and it's good not just for large caps, but also the russell 2000 has gained 14%

on average during a red wave year since 1980. so in general, i would tend to say that investors have represented up their expectation. i think michael santoli just mentioned some interesting points about valuations. i think we do have to realize that we can't be going at these kind of directions forever without some sort of digestion of gains. >> right. i'm wondering what's happening with the valuations right now. russell, by the way, it's up another 1% today and it's outperforming. where are we in terms of reasonable valuations? >> well, we're looking at a 40% premium for the s&p 500 to its long term forward p-e ratio. so a bit pricey. this is where we were back in july of this summer when we went through our 8.5% pullback. the tech sector is not as expensive. it was at 78% premium to its long-term p-e. now it's just 65, but still, i

think between now and the end of the year, i think investors will be riding this optimism, but i do think that we have to watch and make sure we just don't get too far ahead of our skis. >> sam, i think you said the russell typically benefits from a red wave by an average of 14% or so. is that from the time of the election, not from the inauguration of the incoming president? and by the way, i don't know if the russell is up, but it's an awful lot in the last weak or so. i mean, a lot of that gain may have already taken place. >> oh, absolutely. yeah. no, the numbers that i just mentioned were the on average for the full calendariary with more than 80% frequency of advance and just looking at election day to inauguration day, whether you look at large, mid, small-cap stocks, their average gain is a little less, if you will, than what i think the market will be showing this

time around, but the batting average, more than 80% frequency of advance. so in general, there is optimism between election day and inauguration day mainly because of the anticipatory expectations. >> so i guess when do the policies have to be delivered to change the fundamental backdrop of earnings expectations, lower corporate tax rates, deregulations and that wild card around trade, as well. >> absolutely. right now we're seeing q3 numbers that are twice what was expected as of the end of the quarter, full 2024 numbers up about 8.5% according to s&p capital iq consensus data and both 2025 and '26 are likely to see 13% earnings growth. so i would tend to say we will need to see upward revisions to these forward estimates in order to justify these valuations and also to see whether tariffs end

up being more of a negotiating tactic than a fait accompli. >> thank you very much for joining us. sam stovall. as we head to break here is the road map for the rest of the hour. ques questions surrounding healthcare in a trump presidency. bitcoin at an all-time high and now topping 83,000. travel stocks are carving out big gains last week and this year. we'll get top picks in that space when "squawk on the street" continues in a moment. at t. rowe price, we help advisors move forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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reliable 5g, plus wifi speeds up to a gig where you need it most. xfinity mobile. now xfinity internet customers can buy one line of unlimited and get one free for a year. we've got a number of headlines this weekend around president-elect trump's future cabinet. let's get to megan cassella. she has the latest for us. >> david, official announcements trickling for trump's second term. he will appoint tom homan to be his border czar. that's a position that would put him in charge of overseeing deportations. trump announced elise stefanik would be his ambassador to the united nations and they both join the official list now alongside susie wiles as chief of staff. one note on stefanik, that would create a vacancy in the house for republicans and it would be

in new york where democrats last week flipped three seats and depending how narrow, it would help to have that vacancy in new york. as for names under consideration, robert lighthizer has been asked to oversee trade once again and it is not clear whether that would be in ustr or a different position. linda mackman being considered as commerce secretary, scott bessent at thee final note on c appointments. trump did call on senate republicans to allow recess appointments and the three senators that are vying for majority leader all agreed that they would do it. that means trump could appoint cabinet officials while congress is out and it would circumvent the entire approval process. >> a lot of discussion about how much of the house the trump white house can dip into

personnel wise and still maintain what looks like a pretty narrow majority. >> that's always a key discussion in these transition discussions is just how much can the president pull from congress and that's generally where they look to for officials and we don't know the final margins and it is just a few seats in either direction, and like i mentioned with steve anfanik and that's ae where they would make sure it's a republican that takes that seat there would be a special election and no guarantee there. that's something that trump, just like any president wants to be very careful about. >> is the conversation the same within the senate and governs if some of these states, are they willing to have say special? . >> it varies by state. there are different laws and different rules as to what happens with the special election or a govern canner can appoint at any period of time. when trump doesn't have that large of a governing majority he

wants to take advantage of the mandate that he thinks he's been given that the voters gave him last week and narrowing that in either direction is not something he wants to do. he'll do it here and there, but he'll try not to make it. >> i was wondering about lighthizer in the administration. i don't know what the gossip is, is he willing to take back the same ustr position or does he want something perhaps new and different. >> lighthizer is an interesting character and i covered trade and covered lighthizer very closely. my understanding is he stayed very close to the president in the four years that trump has been out of office and he might be angling something for a larger position, commerce or treasury that's the scuttlebutt that's out there or maybe a white house position, but what we know so far is trump wants him to oversee trade. there are some duties for trade in the commerce department and the treasury department and some of it you can do in the white house like peter navarro, but

there is no guarantee because statutorily, it lies with ustr. he's wanted to go after china impose tariffs and protects u.s. industry for his entire decades-long career. i would think it's likely that he'll take whatever he's given. >> some of the china sourcing basket has moved on the ft headline on friday. megan, thank you. megan cassella. let's talk about a second trump white house particularly around financials. the former ceo of thompson reuters as you know, current lead independent director of both merck and morgan stanley. tom, great to have you back. >> good to be here. >> i'm curious, how much policy you see coming into view given the commentary around rfk jr. in the last couple of weeks. >> i would say the obvious. i don't represent merck or any other company of which i serve on the board. health care is interesting

because we haven't seen much movement in health care stocks compared to the banks over the last week and i think that's because the regulatory outlook is far more hazy. number one, you have the kennedy issue, but i think that's more of a wild card. i think the bigger issue is that trump has sort of flip-flopped on policy all over the map. early on in his first term he talked a lot about the unfairness to eueuropean pricin and the pbms would be good for pharma and take a bit of the pressure off of the innovation economy. >> can you talk about how discussions are going regarding m and a, and i guess even taking corporate to 15. b of a over the weekend argued that's probably worth four points to the s&p? >> there's, you know, pharma has a regular habit of internal development and external, and i think the healthiest companies

don't believe every great compound is invented inside. that's certainly the case at merck these days. i think there's no question that the antitrust environment will help that, right? i can tell you that sitting in boardrooms over the last, three, four years, folks have hesitated. the attitude's been the ftc will challenge you. you have to be prepared for a two-year fight. don't expect early termination. >> what about trade? aren't pharmaceutical supply chains very global? >> they are. there's already been a pretty serious focus on essentially securing the supply chain from china. so active pharmaceutical ingredients so-called api comes from china and other places. we've done a lot of work at merck on that. the focus is really on the base chemicals. so not just the api, but where do you source the chemicals that go into the api and these days,

i think across the industry is largely a chinese story. >> in the first trump administration you saw the social schism in the country widen, and a lot of employees at companies seem to be pushing ceos to take positions on all sorts of issues, tom, which are far outside what you typically would see. are we going to back to that or is that period over? >> think ceos have had it for that. the university of chicago managed to get through the great university crisis by essentially saying hey, look, you know our values. this is what we stand for. we are not going to be pulled by every whim to make a comment of this is an outrage, that's an outrage, and i think what you'll see in ceos is a similar movement. speak about issues that are really relevant to your employees, your community, your industry, but there's always an

employee, a supplier or a customer who wants to pull you to make a statement that in the end is more political than it is economic. >> yeah. finally, i mean, obviously you and i knew each other for years when you were running thompson reuters. the news business, it's changing dramatically and not for the better necessarily for the larger organizations or the like. what is your sense there in terms of what that's looking like now and will look like over the next four years? >> well, first, i have to say steve hasker that runs t.r. is doing a fantastic job. the company is a lot different than it was in my period, but a lot of the businesses we bought have been successfully sold off adding to the success. you know, to me the saddest thing about the news business is the local news. who's going to stand up and report about the local elections, et cetera. on the national basis, know, i think we have the champions that we've had for the last five, six

years. i don't see a major threat. the biggest threat i think would be self-censorship a la washington post editorial over the last week, but as long as people stay true to their editorial roots i think we'll be okay. >> we've had a hol loelowing ou local coverage, haven't we? >> and periodic a temps to build it and aol tried and and there have been a variety local efforts and it is very hard to rebuild that. >> do you think "the washington post" not deciding to run the endorsement was a good or bad move? >> i think it's a bad move for journalism and for the integrity of the process, right? if you want to change your policy don't do it two weeks before the election. make a principled decision that we're out of, people can decide for themselves who are out of the business of endorsing a candidate. it just looks too, you know, suspicious, let's say.

>> even bezos acknowledged the timing was probably a mistake in his op-ed about that very thing. >> i don't think in the end they don't move the elections that much anyway. piss off your employees, right? and what? they've lost 250,000 subscribers? >> i do think it is -- the fact that editorial sits right with the news desk it does confuse people and if we do have a lack of trust in media, maybe they shouldn't be in the business of making opinions and endorsements on presidential candidates that they cover when people don't really understand that separation. >> right. i think in the old days pre-digital it was a lot easier. you had the editorial page and the journal had an ego, et cetera and you knew what you were doing. these days you're reading online who really carefully looks at it? you look at the times, they do something called news analysis which sits half way between editorial and news and no wonder

people are confused. >> that's true. >> the editorial goes back to the foundings of american media, but you're right. >> yeah. >> online, there's no way to tell what page you're on necessarily. tom, it's great to see you. thanks for the great intelligence. >> thank you. >> palantir, by the way, one of the tech names riding this rally, up 40% on the month, nearly 250% on the year and hitting more all-time highs this morning. it is one of the best-performing stocks in the market all year long. by the way, bitcoin also on a tear about 83,000 and how much higher the crypto may go from here. we will discuss that in just a mont me. me. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. there is progress for talks for a ceasefire in lebanon, but the war is not over. russia could play a part by stopping hezbollah rearming in syria. the comments came one day after israel's new defense minister said israel has defeated hezbollah. russia has reportedly

amassed 50,000 troops as part of an effort to retake land in the kursk region of ukraine that was seized back by ukraine, that according to volodymyr zelenskyy and ukraine's top commander who also warned that thousands of north korean troops were among the force assembled in kursk. and the national highway traffic safety administration is probing complaints of engine failure in as many as 1.4 million honda and acura vehicles. the agency said the problem may affect vehicles with 3.5 liter v6 engines which include some models of the honda pilot, odyssey and ridgeline as well as some acura, mdx and tlx models. david, back over to you. >> thank you, bertha. >> bitcoin prices have risen above 83,000 and that is the first time they have hit those numbers. mackenzie cegallos is tracking

all of those moves. >> mackenzie? >> the crypto market is surging and they saw a swell of pro-crypto candidates win office. you have bitcoin topping 83k for the first time ever and ether and solana are up in the last seven days which beat bitcoin's record breaking gains. premiums are moving higher as well and interest in out of the money calls has grown with traders betting $2.9 billion that it will go over $85k. the cme which is what u.s. institutions use to buy bitcoin futures contracts show premiums for ether and bitcoin surging higher post election. meanwhile, the spot bitcoin etfs adding $2.3 billion and yet another sign that institutions and their clients are piling into the bitcoin trade on the back of donald trump's win.

within fintech stocks both in a legal fight with the sec are moving higher and most bitcoin are seeing double digit percentage gains so far this morning. back to you. >> mackenzie, what are the key policies that could change besides the head of the fcc? >> besides the firing on day one. the u.s. government has $16 billion of bitcoin already on the books and what donald trump wants to do is hold onto it indefinitely instead of auctioning it off and you are taking that permanently out of supply and they put forward legislation to implement a bitcoin buying strategy, we're talk 1 million bitcoin over five years in order to bring the bitcoin supply over roughly what we have in gold and that's buoying investorsa spirits in the crypto markets. >> a lot of excitement program

mackenzie sigalos. >> take a look at the mystery stock and one of the best performers in the s&p and more than 0%90% of analysts call it buy and we'll continue after a quick break. on a programming note, cnbc's delivering alpha investor summit is two days away in new york. this is always a big one for us. november 13th and i'll be speaking with nelson peltz of trian about the new investing landscape post-election. there's still time to register. go to cnbc.com/deliveringalpha or scan the qr code on the screen. we are back after a quick break.

well, this surprised us, that mystery name outperforming on the year, that would be united airlines up over 100%. the broader airline sector getting a boost following

president-elect trump's victory last week. our next guest, david vernon joins us. what is the thinking here, david about why airlines are big beneficiaries. >> the impact of the election is a stronger stock market and affluent consumers havem more money in their 401(k)s and they'll scrimp on the next vacation. that's one part of it. i think lower tax rates also helps and finally deregulation would be one of the reasons why the stocks are getting a second look here post the election. the d.o.t. was looking at frequent flier programs which is one of the few things the flyers like about the industry and the increased scrutiny on the loyalty and program revenue will go by the wayside. >> which is your favorite? is it united which has been an outperformer? >> i think united and delta are

the two stocks that we would focus investors on? you have the fundamentals working in your favor and 60% of the airline right now is being earned by airlines with a less than 5% margin and the discount carriers will have to take capacity out and there's rmoom o go in the front end of the cabin and finally, you'll continue to see these airlines expect in the loyalty program which is caters to a more affluent consumer to build revenue streams along the core airline business. >> the strong dollar help his americans want to travel more abroad and that's something that we're seeing play out. i guess the question, though is on cost, right, david? everything from fuel to capex. what does that look like for these companies which we always ask because of the discipline and the history in this industry. >> that's a question that gets asked a lot the industry will have to grapple with.

and they'll have to capture premium revenues to offset some of that inflation, but what you can't get away from is the fact that today you have two airlines that are accounting for most of the profits in the industry, delta and united. the rest of the lower cost carriers are struggling because of an oversupply of a basic run product. there's simply no way we'll get out of this without less capacity at the low end of the market and higher fares and that's for the two airlines making money in this market, united and delta. >> okay. we'll leave it there. thank you very much for the recommendations. david vernon from bernstein. >> thank you. keep an eye on the drugmakers abbvie and bristol-myers after the schizophrenia drug failed in phase two while bristol's rival drug was just approved. investors shrugging off china's big announcement as singles day gets off in beijing. what happens to those under a

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stocks and bitcoin are surging, but copper prices have been sagging. some traders are blaming disappointing stimulus out of china and a surge of the u.s. dollar on the heels of a trump election win, but could falling copper be ready for a turnaround trade. tune in to "power lunch" at 2:00 p.m. eastern time.

china's consumer index slowing down, this comes on the heels of the country announcing a $1.4 trillion stimulus package. that was on friday. the kweb etf trying to rebound from what had been its worse day since june '23. economic weakness also spurring sales for alibaba singles day campaign. here to talk about it is ben

harburg. from your post in china itself. i guess, let's start off with trump and what really the expectation are. we seem to have a more positive view on what may ultimately happen. why is that? >> our expectation was that the markets would dip post-confirmation of the trump victory and that's just given the expectation that there would be a hard line coming out the gate with regard to tariff figures, but overall i think that there is a silver lining here which is trump will be a lot more transactional, a lot more pragmatic and a lot more realistic with china in the long run as he seeks to probably levy another deal like last time around, all kinds of issues from trade imbalances to ip theft and reshoring, and i think that will ultimately lead to a more stabilized relationship, economically and politically with china than what we experienced over the last four years under biden. >> so that would ultimately be, i guess, a good thing to build from? what do the chinese do in

response? do they wait for more stimulus, for example, until they have a sense for the rules of the road? >> yeah. the consensus seems the chinese held back a little bit on going overboard with the mpc meeting that wrapped up to enable themselves to have the tools to cushion what again should be some pretty harsh lines set by trump's team out the gate, and so i do think that there's plenty of -- plenty of weapons still left in the chinese arsenal and they're going to see how hard a line is drawn and how quickly some kind of a deal is tabled that they can react to and our expectation is that the chinese will be much more transactional themselves this time and the chinese were at the apex of their rise. they were seeing record levels of inbound inflows of investment and they were announcing the belt road and china 2025 and it was a moment of -- of profound hubris, i would say this time

around. it's a better economic and geopolitical picture and they'll be able to better deal with trump. >> is any of what they're doing working? they had not been able to boost foreign direct investment. >> it's certainly really challenging to rebuild that trust and our view was that for years it was going to take years after some of these unexpected regulatory interventions or other overall performance drops in the market to get them to come in. that said over the last couple of weeks and month we saw how high appetite is for global investors to re-enter the chinese markets if they can see stable returns and even a lot of that capital that was flowing say into japan or india returning knowing that china remains indefinitely the world's second largest market. i don't think it's impossible to lure back those investors, but it was just a bad trade when the s&p is surging and china is still facing regulatory and other kind of uncertainties. >> ben, is there a price that

taiwan can pay the united states for protection or do you think trump is willing to cut a deal in which china does militarize south china sea and bear hug taiwan at its leisure. >> i wouldn't want to speak of the president with regard to his views on taiwan. he has made some statements on that. i think you'll see a more pragmatic approach to how we deal with taiwan and i don't expect at all that this administration would hand it back to the chinese and likewise, and i don't think the chinese will put that on the table. what i expect, though, is because of a less focus on it from this administration and more on dollars and cents, creating jobs in the united states, reindustrialization of the united states and the wealth transfer of the i.p. theft and some play it as high as $6 billion of i.p. theft that that is slowed and of course, that some of that is repaid. if they were able to achieve that that's a massive win and

that's really where the focus will be and so that means that you'll just hear less day to day information around the potential hot war between the u.s. and china over taiwan. >> finally, it is singles day. any sense there in terms of the willingness of the chinese consumer to spend? will their spending remain subdued? >> it certainly will be lower than we've seen pre-covid, but i expect that it will be improvement over last year. certainly the last few -- the last month plus of interest in the chinese public markets, particularly domestically and we've seen people come into the markets and some improved animal spirits as people start to see that their real estate prices might be stabilizing and even increasing a little bit. that will bring them out to the high street and back to the e-commerce platforms and should see a nice, albeit, modest bump in the singles day numbers. >> we'll be watching them. >> ben, always appreciate it. thank you. when we come back, actually

in the next hour, what a new white house means for regulation and m and a. the alternative ceo of blue owl is with us at 11:00. first, apartment vacancies falling for the first time in two years. what means for prices after a quick break. stay with us.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's get to diana olick for more on what that means for the housing market. >> the apartment vacancy rate fell for the third quarter for the first time in two years, that according to a new report from cbre. rental demand outpaced new deliveries during the quarter. the multi-family vacancy rate dropped .2% from the second quarter to 5.3% all thanks to less new supply and stronger renter demand. the ongoing dynamics are expected to push vacancy down to

the longrun average to 5% of incoming quarters. average monthly rents rose 0.3% year over year and that increase, unfortunately, it is expected to accelerate. those are signs for recovery for an apartment market which has been plagued by oversupply after a historic building boom. 450,000 completed last year and that's the most units since 1987 and more this year of 518,000 which is a record high. construction starts are now falling sharply in response, but multi-family has been one of the top performing reit sectors this year. reits like avalon bay, camden and equity essential and they have been on a tear year to date and this is due to making home buying more expensive and pushing more rental demand and as occupancy rises rents will continue to go higher as well. >> which makes more financial

sense now? renting or does that continue? >> it'teresting because in the upcoming to the election we looked at the nation about four years ago and it was kind of split between rent and buy when you go city to city. now it is much cheaper to rent across the nation, across the board, really and that's because home prices are so high because mortgage rates shot up from where we saw them in the first years of the pandemic. >> all right. diana olick. diana, thank you very much. by the way, the nasdaq has gone positive and joining the other two. s&p is up a third of 1% and that will still put it into record hyter hyter high territory and continued momentum on the trump election trade and you see financials in the top and when you see tesla in the top, david, you attribute it to that. >> without a doubt. tesla is stunning and it's up 75% in the last three months and don't forget the 52-week low on

tesla is $138.80. so it's up well over 200 points from its 52-week low as you take a look at that continued momentum that sara was just referencing, of course. up some 40% for the year. still bested by gm when it comes to the automakers and shares of which were up 58+ percent. our liveart vege ntinues after this.

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♪ ♪ good monday morning. welcome to money movers. i'm carl quintanilla alongside sara eisen at the new york stock exchange. the co-ceo of alternative asset management blue owl is will be joining us. their shares soared 50% this year. >> plus why mortgage rates are likely to stay high despite the recent rate cut. we'll take a look at what the new administration would mean for the housing sector and what it would take to housing prices. how it navigated a complicated relationship with the first trump white house and what the playbook might look like this time around. >> right now in the markets, the part