what do you mean? >> you're going to come to me on that, really? >> i agree with it. i've been pounding the table for months. >> okay. thanks. >> best performing financial stock is interactive brokers for us. the etf, i think it continues the trading environment is phenomenal. >> all righty. i'll see you on "the closing bell." "the exchange" begins right now. thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the trump transition is under way and for those vying for the top senate spot it says need not apply unless you agree to one thing first. we have the latest on this leadership drama and how it could impact filling positions and doing policy. plus we speak to a former ustr negotiator who says china should expect tariffs to be hyped by those 60 percentage points the froms has talked about and our china investing guest doesn't think that will happen and we'll debate and look where in the china trade we'll see more

rewards than risks still. speaking of tariffs, this name belongs to one of the most sub sheltered retailers and less than 10% of its product from china and that's just one of the reasons our analyst likes it. if you can guess the deal tweet me and we'll reveal the trade in a bit. let's start with the markets, and dom chu has the russell 2000, dom. >> we are seeing record highs for many parts of the major indices and i'll put up the stars right now because it's a more modest trade at this point and the session lows, by the way. the dow industrials did hit a record high and the nasdaq composite index. the dow industrials are currently at the 44,278 and that's 290 points to the upside up two-thirds of 1% and this represents the lows of the session. we were up about 22 handles at the high. so 59.94, we were above 6,017 by the way is the record new watermark for the s&p 500 and

the nasdaq composite at 19,223 and down one-third of 1% and 19,226 and that's the trade here. one of the bright spots, continued bright spots in the market for the mega-cap technology type trade, mag 7 trade, if you will, have been in shares of tesla. those shares are higher today. we did see a nice move higher to the point we were up 6% and that's just off the best levels of the session right now, but again with a 6% gain and the year to date gain is up 37% with a large portion of that coming in just this last week in the wake of the election. so ceo elon musk, a close ally of president-elect trump. that trade still in effect here and another trade that's now at record highs again and you'll sense a theme here is what's happening in cryptocurrency and bitcoin in particular because we are just near session heights right now. 84,516 depending on which measure you want to look at. coin metrics shows 85,000 as the high watermark for bitcoin

prices doubling in the course of the year to date period, up another 6% today. so cryptocurrencies, tesla, that post-trump election rally still holding. kelly, i'll send things back over to you. >> it feels like liquidity is sploshing around these markets. trump's economic policy will be tariffs. on the campaign trail he pushed for a 10% to 20% levy on imports and a 60% tariffs on goods from china and for more on the scope and timeline we are joined by wendy cutler. she is vice president of the asia society institute. she worked three decades in the office of the trade rep where she negotiated the china-u.s. relationship. brandon ahern is the cio of crane shares and our own emily wilkins is following the moves trump is making already to ensure fast congressional approval of the people he wants in place to execute his plans.

welcome to all of you. wendy, let's start with you. what are you hearing? what do you anticipate? >> so i'm anticipating that we'll see tariff hikes in the early days of the trump administration. trump has put a lot of tariff proposals out there. he loves tariffs, and i think we need to be ready to see across the board tariffs maybe with some exceptions against all trading partners as well as up to 60% tariffs againstchinese imports. >> so 60% is just a negotiating chip and a bargaining point and we know that was true to some extent in the first trump administration. what's your response to that? >> my response is maybe he starts with 30, and he says if we're within three months if we don't have a deal and we don't see a change in our trade deficit with china, then we go to 60. he can stage this in and he can offer some product exclusions, but i think he's serious, and i think robert lighthizer, one of

his key advisers here is extremely serious and has laid out the path here, and that is more toward decoupling from china than negotiating a deal with china. >> would you anticipate, i mean, i can anticipate if the price of things from china starts going up a significant amount that there's going to be some consumer outcry. what's the president's plan to offset or cushion that? >> well, that's a great question, and -- and the issue is can we trade enough and have good relations with other countries and build more in america so as not to be as dependent on china, and i think the other message will be there may be some short-term costs in order to achieve our long-term objectives with china, and that is to reduce our dependency on china. >> you know, the irony is that it might be needed medicine for the u.s. to rebalance a way for consuming more than we produce. maybe we're in an era where we'd like to produce what we consume

or a bigger portion, but i don't see how that doesn't take a huge toll on consumers. it's a painful adjustment even if the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is more jobs. it will be much more costly for u.s. consumers in the meantime. they're coming off an era where they threw off the previous party because of inflation and consumer prices may go up yet again. >> that's exactly why biden took a more targeted tariff approach. he raised selective tariffs against china. so let's see if some trump advisers can convince the incoming president that across the board tariff is not in your interest. it's going to rwreak havoc. >> what do you think is the international front to affect domestic production. so if we said okay, it's a 60% tariff on china, how quickly do you really think we can bring online u.s. domestic production

or lower cost areas and it would seem to be years, but maybe it can be quicker. >> some of that's already happening given the inflation reduction act and the infrastructure bill and the c.h.i.p.s act, and a number of companies over the past eight years are diversifying their locations for production to the u.s., to mexico and elsewhere around the world. some sectors, it's going to take a lot longer to relocate production. we've seen that, like the auto sector and other sectors things can move more quickly. >> what sectors might those be and what else will you be watching to kind of look at the implementation of trade policy and how much can happen in the first few days and how much can happen in the first few months and what should we expect to have happen after the first few years. >> what will be key to watch is how our trading partners respond. do they respond by coming to washington and trying to seek a deal or do they start counter retaliating and then we get back

into a scenario which could be along the lines of the trade war we had with china during the first term. >> and what was the ultimate economic effect of all of that as far as you're concerned? >> as far as i'm concerned, consumers paid, business is paid and consumers and businesses are still paying. some of that was cushioned because not all tariff cuts are passed on to the consumer. the producer swallows some of them and the foreign company swallows some of the cost and so -- but that's when tariffs were a lot lower and if you're talking about tariffs in the range of 60%, i think the impact will be a lot quicker and a lot more severe. >> yeah. although then we ran into covid and china was supposed to buy more of the ag products and then they never did. so maybe this time around we'll see it through for all four years and as we know from plans, maybe not. wendy, thanks for now. we'll hope to check back in soon. wendy cutler. we appreciate it. >> the tariffs may pose another

pressure for china. new data over the weekend showed its cpi rose 0.3 less than forecasts. ppi producer price increases in china fell, marking the 25th consecutive month of decline. another sign that stimulus is pushing on a string and numbers could also be weak and the tariffs won't be as bad as feared for the economy which is slowly improving and brendan ahern is the chief investment officer at crane shares. anything you want to respond to? >> we think taking economic policy from the 1930s is probably a pretty bad idea especially with the wide stocks, amazon, home depot and costco. we think president trump will get the best deal that he can from china, but he's developed a relationship with president xi and the campaign rhetoric is not likely to become economic reality. >> what have media reports or

the chinese suggested they might do in exchange if we slap big tariffs on across the board? >> i think ultimately, u.s. multinationals generate about $500 billion in china that doesn't show up in export numbers because those goods are made in china from u.s.-owned factories and then sold within china. so there are lots of areas where i'm sure elon musk will be telling incoming president trump that, you know, there's a lot of business interest in china. president xi did a deal with president trump previously. to your point, covid derailed it and u.s. farmers paid the price for some of the tariff wars that happened between the u.s. and china. so i think ultimately, there will be a lot of threatening and china is more than willing to do a deal as well as chinese companies are willing to set up hop in the u.s. >> do you think it's true that the chinese officials are waiting for more clarification before they unleash more

stimulus or is that just an excuse for why we haven't seen more. things are slowly starting to get a little bit better, so i think they're going with more of an incremental any see how the economy reacts and these are economy-focused issues and they're dealing with the housing crisis and low domestic con ump sumption. they're much more focused internally than externally. >> th >> that being the case i thought it would make their own goals harder to achieve. i'd love to know if tepper is still in these trades. >> we'll find out with 13 fs from q3 in just a few days, but ultimately you're seeing a lot more interest just because the chinese economy is starting to pick up and we've got a really big week. today's singles day, kelly, but on wednesday we have tencent reporting earnings and on thursday, j.d. and vip shops and the big one on friday will be

alibaba, and i think it's the q4 outlook. what are these companies seeing from chinese companies and are they seeing proverbial green chutes with the stimulus measures? >> these are companies that can do well this year and tencent is up 40% so it's participated and alibaba with 20% gains. what happened during the first trump term to a lot of these companies and their stock prices? >> things did get a little bit more volatile, but they did perform quite well. kweb, our china etf outperformed -- outperformed under president trump than president biden and that's not exactly fair because of zero covid and other issues, but we think there's an opportunity for the u.s. and china between president trump and president xi, their special relationship that they have and mutual respect that they'll be able to find another deal. we really do believe the chinese are willing to do a good deal for president trump and the american people and we really

think it's underestimated and how willing are chinese companies willing to come and build factories in the u.s. and that's something president trump and his team will be able to negotiate. >> thank you. we appreciate it. brendan ahern. as president-elect trump forms his cabinet he's looking to bypass the administration appointees. emily watkins. what a leadership fight out of the senate as we watched those reports coming out all weekend long. >> kelly, it will be incredibly interesting. senators have traditionally been pretty insulated from outside pressure and that includes pressure from the president if you look back at trump's first term, but we're about to see that tested with the majority leader race to fill the spot being left by mitch mcconnell. you have three republicans that are vying for that top spot. you have senator john thune who currently holds the number two spot in leadership and john

cornyn who previously held that spot. they're more in line with what mcconnell was, but rick scott who is more closely aligned with the party is gaining moment up with maga influencers and that includes elon musk who tweeted his support for scott over the weekend. it is not clear how much power these endorsements will have. the vote is scheduleded for wednesday and it is a secret ballot and wanna be senate leaders are jumping one trump-backed idea, allowing him to appoint high-level positions without senate approval first. trump said on x that, quote, any republican senator seeking the coveted leadership appointment in the united states senate must agree to recess appointments. >> rick scott was quick to respond. i 100% agree. i will do whatever it takes to get it as quickly as possible.

they were open to the idea of the recess appointments and currently the senate has guarded this power to help appoint top officials, but if they go through with this, trump will have a really wide range to appoint when he wants and do so asap. >> the question is who will be leading the senate during this period of time and to what extent they're going to either be a friend or ally or friend of trump's approxpolicy and you th with the mandate that they have seen with republicans in the senate get that they would be helping to pave the way for what he's going to put into action, but this leadership fight already tells you it's not clear who believes that that is the mandate that they should help with and who believes that they should, you know, not go that route. is it true that rick scott is seen as an ally and the others are said to not be so much. >> i think it's a matter of degree, right? how much do you want to stick to things like precedent? how much do you want to stick to the powers that the senate

currently has and how much do you want to help trump? just reading the tea leaves with cornyn and thune immediately jumping on x saying we agree and keeping an open mind to the recess appointment ideas, it clearly shows that the power dynamic in the senate has shifted toward trump. i still think the question is how much? if we do see rick scott emerge victorious, they've gotten the message loud and clear. they'll give trump morelyway and remember the lay of the land in the senate, you still is susan collins, lisa murkowski and others that have nott actistly backed trump and this is in the house and the presidency. so i think it will really remain to be seen. lawmakers get back tomorrow and i'm incredibly curious when it comes to the senate exactly how much senators feel like they have to obey the mandate of trump and how much they'll pull back and say, look, we got

elected, too. we have our own constituents and we have our own thoughts about how things need to be run. >> interesting. again, the private -- and is it true, emily, very quickly, that the votes for leadership are anonymous so there's no accountability as to which senators voted for whom? >> they are. they are anonymous. that's why you've seen a couple of endorsements come out, a few for rick scott, and some for thune and cornyn. they haven't said who they're going to be voting for and a lot of them will be taking advantage of the secret ballot to vote for who they think is best outside of any outside pressure. >> emily wilkins, thanks, in washington, d.c. for us today. >> still to come, we lay out the state of play under the new trump administration. the trillion dollar question is how do you invest in that environment? we will look at how to position across all asset classes especially with the gains we've seen as they target milestone closes. the dow 44,000, the s&p six, and

here's another look at today's mystery chart. one of the few retailers expected to be somewhat immune from the tariffs on china. surprise me, you can reveal it later in the show and "the exchange" is back after this. ♪ this is "the exchange"n bc.o price, we help advisors move forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

t-mobile's 5g network connects a hundred thousand delta employees so they can make every customer feel like they've arrived before they've left the ground. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business. your business needs a network it can count on... this is how even during the unexpected. power's out! -power's out! comcast business has you covered, with wifi backup to help keep you up and running. wifi's up. let's power on!

let's power on! -let's power on! it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. stay connected with comcast business internet and wifi back-up or get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! >> welcome back. stocks continue to rally post election with the dow on track to close above 44,000 for the

first time. we'll see about the s&p. it rose above 6,000 on friday's trading session and hasn't closed there yet and the russells are leading the way up 1.3% today. our next guest says these results have not changed the investment strategy with the diversified mix of asset classes with stocks, bonds and metals and the portfolio is up 23% year to date. michael cugino is here and he's president and portfolio manager. great to have you. come. >> good afternoon, kelly. how are you doing? >> this is so unfair, i was going to check how much the s&p is up so far year to date. the number of people who say why do i bother worrying about asset allocation. everything i own just go easy m. >> in the teens that's exactly what happened, right? the equity indexes kept going up and all you had to do was buy equity indexes and watch them go and what do you need diversification for? markets change, and while the

trump trade looks very one way and like it would last forever, i have a lot of questions as to what's really changed in the last few days other than the election results. >> the thing that i find notable is to some extent that there wasn't a buy of rheumor sell th fact, and the week before we had the trump trades already put on. what's also interesting to me is how much liquidity we have, and do you think it goes back to the fed as much as anything? >> the fed definitely impacts it and they're cutting rates and they've made a couple of direct moves in that direction or maybe more although there's a limit given what they can do given where inflation is at and that will unlock liquidity that was in money market funds and bank deposits and going to equities and dricrypto. if you were there a week and a half, a month ago i wouldn't be buying it, but that's me. we are more conservative and longer term thinking so we're

not doing much portfolio adjusting in the short term here. there's a lot of unanswered questions whether it's policy and even the house of representatives, we don't know yet and it's difficult to speculate on what everybody's going to do before we know more facts. >> the trump trade is basically anything right now. it's hard for investors how much of the dow's rally and how much of the s&p's rally and how much of the nasdaq's rally. i understand regional banks in particular there might be a political overlay, but you can't really not participate whether you want to or not. >> well, the trump trade is for materials and precious metals and i don't think anything's changed with that environment. in pack, the reasons to own gold silver, for example, are as valid now as they were five days ago, and i think if you get a correction or consolidation it's a good chance to take a look at them as a long-term investment, but certainly that hasn't been the case. crypto has had a tremendous move and you know, was there a lot

made in the media during the election cycle of trump and crypto so it makes total sense. bond yields have kind of stayed somewhat stagnant after the run-up that they had. post-election they're still high compared to when the fed was cutting rates. historically that's kind of normal although that kind of trade has gotten overdone and you might expect to see rates come down a little bit and on the equity sectors there's a lot of global stuff that hasn't played out yet either. obviously the tariff story which is constantly, but we don't know what's going to happen there. people have been assuming that tariffs are going to disrupt everything and it's going to be heavily inflationary and the u.s. economy will go in the tank because of it. we didn't see that in the first trump administration and we're not going to see it now. i think strategically tariffs are used and i think they will continue to be strategically used by both parties. >> so i think that may in the long term enhance global trade and bring placards to the table.

the sell-off of the china trade with the materials and the worry that china will not be doing business with the u.s. so that there's not going to be a market for that stuff is way too premature and it may turn out to be a good buying opportunity. >> the gold interests me because i would love to know this and we were talking about tepper and his ownership of china, which i believe he said on that podcast that he did. of course, he might have a position in the trump administration, but i'd like to know the theoretical case if he said the election changes that or not. it has seen a sharp pullback and a lot of people are wondering whether it will continue to outperform and it's just a major inflexion point for precious metals or not. >> there may have been a fear factor given the uncertainty of the election and whether the results will be challenged and whether they be drama, demonstrations, who knows? so once that was not appearing to happen there could have been a sell-off for that, but beyond that, i have a hard time seeing it because the reasons to own it

are valid. regardless of who won the election, you will have huge deficits and they're growing, and so you still have central banks buying all over the world. you still have geopolitical uncertainty everywhere. the strong dollar has certainly not been good for gold. since the election it's had quite a move and the dollar has been very strong anyway and likely is going to come down especially with u.s. and global trade increase and the dollar will decline vis-a-vis other currencies and that would be bullish for gold and commodities, as well. so, you know, i see it in the short term and after the run gold's had, there's certainly a consolidation factor kind of thing that may play into it, but i think long term, the reasons to own it are as valid as ever, and as an investor you want to be looking for an entry point for a long-term investment from our perspective. >> i don't want to say it keeps me up at night and if i stop figuring it out and bought it that would probably be the way to go.

>> you slip better when you don't worry about it and put it in your portfolio at a certain level and it helps you sleep better. >> the argument for bitcoin by those who love it. michael cugino, thanks. join cnbc's delivering alpha investors summit this wednesday. perfect timing to hear from investors and business leaders for all of their insights, ideas and analysis and get the meaningful returns and there's still time to register by scanning the qr code or go to cnbc.com/deliveringalpha. still ahead, large language models could be a thing of the past if you believe the chatter around silicon valley. after the break we'll look at what's next for generative a.i. and what it means for those multibillion-dollar investments. we are back after this. stay with us. he life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance.

this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪ business. it's not a nine-to-five scien proposition.rail. it's all day and into the night.

it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

welcome back to "the exchange." i'm pippa stevens with your cnbc news update. in order to quote fully participate in hads re-election campaign. in court documents filed today adams' lawyers are seeking to have the trial start april 1st rather than the current date of april 21st. the estate of crypto exchange ftx sued binance for

$1.8 billion alleging a quote, fraudulent shared deal in the lawsuit. ftx alleges its ceo and others exited their investment in ftx in 2021 and funded by alameda research, but the suit claims alameda wasn't able to fund the transaction at the time and the food and drug administration lifted its clinical hold today on a late-stage trial of novavax's trial and flu shot. the fda said today an assessment showed those symptoms were not connected to the shot. novavax said it would resume late-stage trials as soon as possible. kelly? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. traffic to chatgpt is booming with the ceo sam altman bragging on x that it's the biggest website in the world with the site's incredible growth comes right as real concerns swirl over the real advancement of generative ai models is slowing down. deirdre bosa takes a closer look

in today's tech check. >> in other words, how they peaked and that's a conversation gaining traction in silicon valley, the idea that rapid gen a.i. advancements are showing signs of deceleration and there was ben horowitz in the podcast. >> we are increasing gpus at the same rate, but we're not getting the intelligence improvements at all out of it. >> reed hoffmann made a similar point on another podcast and the information reporting that the increase in the quality of orion, that's open a.i.'s upcoming advance model is less than the quality jump between the last two flagship models gpt3 to gpt4, it peaked essentially because the models are running on data to train on. that could lead investors to question the way that they have been valuing a.i. companies. it could also drive changes in the a.i. hardware market and that is chips.

in terms of who stands to benefit i want to go back to the similar post that shows chatgpt is one of the largest websites in the world by traffic and it puts it at 3.7 billion in october versus perplexity's 91 million versus google gemini 292 million. even if tech nol oj cap advancements are ceos operating in the space like mark zuckerberg say there's still a lot of opportunity to build consumer enterprise applications on top of the current technology even if it has plateaued. no computer use, agents and example of new and potential use ca cases, and the only point i make is it could be driving a change in how we think about how we value these a. ci. models and h can we build versus the next jump in technology. >> i still wonder about the ipos that we may ever see. this has been such a slow year.

we had a record 2021 and does any of the tinkering in this field tell us that we'll get a busier ipo docket next year or is it unrelated and going to ultimately accrue to the big platforms and so forth? >> it's a good question. i think what we were already starting to see is the chipmakers and some of the application layers that might be easier to value, right? because they're just building on top of the large language models. maybe you'll see more of them, and i think when you think about the open a.i. and the anthropics and how much investments they need to develop the models that is likely to be further off. deirdre bosa reporting. >> here's the last look at the mystery chart and that's a tariff-proof retailer. we'll reveal it and look ahead to the upcoming earnings report. we're back next.

welcome back. the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is sitting just below 7% as

we're getting you in numbers on the rental housing market and this could have applications for the cpi. >> it fell for the first time in more than two years that according to a new report from cbre. rental demand also outpaced new deliveries during the quarter. the multi-family vacancy rate dropped .2% in the second quarter to 5.3% all thanks to new supply and stronger renter demand and these ongoing dynamics are expected to push a vacancy down to the 5% in the coming quarters. average monthly rents rose .3% year over year and that's expected to accelerate. these are all signs for a market which has been plagued by oversupply after a historic building boom. 450,000 completed last year units, the most since 1987 and more this year, about 518,000 new units. that's a record high. construction starts are now falling sharply in response.

multi-family, of course, has been one of the top performing reit sectors this year. reits in the space, names like avalon bay, camden and equity residential have all been on a tear up year to date up 20% and this due to higher mortgage rates making home buying more expensive by pushing more rental demand and retention. as occupancy rises rents will continue to rise, i'm sorry to say, kelly. >> and that's because we've had a shortage of construction on the apartment front? >> no, not on the apartment front. we've actually had an oversupply of apartments last year and this year -- >> oh. >> right. but that's now coming through the pipeline and starting to see it absorbed at a much faster rate. what we don't have is construction of single-family homes and that's what we need to see more of and allow renters to become homeowners and ease up on the rental demand, as well. >> for sure, diana, thank you. diana olick. speaking of housing we'll hear from mogul and real estate

investor don peebles next hour. meantime, home improvement retailer home depot is on deck to report. yes, that was the mystery chart and good job for david for guessing it with an extra clue. you guys always get it. he has a buy on the stock and my next guest does and while the hurricanes will have a negative impact in the short term once insurance checks are issued, projects will resume. she also points out that it's pat of a retail sub sector insulated from tariffs. let's bring in laura shampine. laura, it's great to see you and always love to pick your brain about home depot. where do things stand for you? >> thanks being kelly. we raised our rating to buy on home depot and lowe's last month. that was after the majority of the storms came through and after the first rate cut which we've obviously had another rate cut in an interest rate-lowering

cycle, you want to be in home improvement and there are a lot of positive drivers and the most meaningful would be the resumption of existing home turnover to get those projects going into next year. >> and you had been a neutral or more of a bear on the stock for a couple of years prior to that, right? >> we hadn't recommended these stocks since october 2021. >> wow. >> so we took sort of a three-year hiatus with interest rates rising and inflation was pressuring the results and we are obviously happy to be constructive again in this group. >> it surprised me and maybe you can explain this that home depot is expected to be somewhat insulated if the tariffs and ac across the board sharp tariffs are applied and is it true that it would affect 10% of the product mix? >> management will be quick to tell you that they only directly import 10% of the product and maybe half of that comes from china, so as far as direct imports they're pretty sheltered and building materials are still

sourced on this continent. so generally, if you're looking within retail, this is one of the most sheltered spaces. also, home depot given its scale can do what retailers can't. so even on that percentage indirectly or directly, they do have abadvantage. >> when they say only 10% of the product is directly imported. i'm thinking about the stores and the massive assortment of goods relatively inexpensive and i'm surprised it doesn't affect more of the product mix. >> let's talk about categories it does impact. so seasonal, say you're in the market for a 30-foot skeleton or an inflatable. >>y, next year they probably will be higher prices. lighting, they source a lot of that from china. that's flexible and it's indirectly sourced and appliance e and many of those come from korean producers who buy components in china. i think this may give an advantage to the domestic companies like whirlpool, but

overall, compared to other retailers whether it's apparel, footwear and home furniture as opposed to these building products categories and there's more exposure to china than we'll see. >> come get your inflatable christmas decorations now before they go up in price. two quick final questions, one on home depot. what do you think the shares should be now? how much upside do you potentially see? >> i think our price target on today's numbers is about a 15% lift. i think that's likely near term, and if this is a longer term improving cycle with continued declines in interest rates while you're able to keep inflation under wraps, we think there's upside well beyond that. >> okay. we're 409 right now on the shares which have rebounded somewhat. we priced some of this in already and the second question is a field from them and the rest of the field coverage universe. are these companies that need to make quick moves now to not be

affected if tariffs do go up in china or elsewhere? >> you know, there are. kelly, i'll give you a smaller cap example and steve madden said last week that they expect to reduce their exposure to china from 60% of their portfolio down to 25% and that's in short order and they intend to do that in less than a year. so some of those categories where you put a lot of product in the container, you should expect that to move which has really far-reaching potential impacts on logistics, on raw materials and these tariffs can be a really big deal in our sector. >> as they move production around, the fact that steve madden can come out and say boom, we're switching this tells me how far they've come, and i'm want surprised it would be more nimble and i'm wondering, if it can handle a large number of retailers trying to do the same thing. >> you're right, kelly. the only way they can say that

the same week of the election is if they've already shifted from 70% or 80% reduction to 50%. a lot of the owners of these plants are taiwanese manufacturers who are sort of replicating what they do on the mainland in places like cambodia, vietnam and to a lesser extent thera some production moving to india so we are ahead on where we used to be on flexibility, but if there is a mad dash, a rush, these ports will be under pressure and like i said, some of the raw materials and the components will be in tight supply and we know trump is serious because he's done it before and it means a lot of companies are more ready than they were last time. >> always bringing the input. laura, good to see you. >> thank you. a quick check on the health care trade. two names moving in opposite directions right now. abbvie is down 12% after its experimental skchizophrenia dru

failed phase 2 trials. its rival drug got fda approval back iseemr n ptbeand leaves it as one of the only ones on the market. we are back in two on "the e exchange." own policy priorities. the 2024 election will shape the future of business in unforeseen ways. now is the time for us to do modeling, assess legislation, and understand the impact on organizations. from election day to the first 100 days and beyond, ey brings you insights on the issues that matter: regulation of ai, the fate of billions in tax credits, global trade impacts on your supply chain and workforce stability and security. the congressional outcomes will matter a lot for what can happen when it comes to health policy. no matter the policy shifts, ey helps business and government leaders remain resilient and mitigate risk while seizing dynamic growth opportunities.

ey. navigate the geopolitical and economic landscape with confidence. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ this one is for you.

welcome back to "thek at ths on this rip roaring broad market rally that we've been seeing going back to the election. the dow is adding another 325 points. it's over 44,000. it looks like it could close there today. the s&p has been up back and forth between positive and negative territory, just a hair under 6,000 which it hasn't closed above yet. the nasdaq is slightly lower and the russell is up 1.5% on the ten-year. let's take another check on bitcoin which is back up above 85,000 and i don't know if i should say back above or a the first time above, the run, nevertheless, is astonishing. 26% if the past week. nearly a 30% gain just since the election and speaking of records, how about the consumer discretionary sector.

the xly is at an all-time high on pace for a fifth straight day of gains and its best five-day stretch and tesla is a big part of that move. elsewhere, nearly a fifth of the s&p is notching record highs including netflix, hilton, marriott, mastercard and visa. again, on the flipside, there are names not participating in a few falling to multi-year lows. if you can guess why in dollar general, we have not been seen levels the slow. doubt incorporated and maternal mac with its own story. all at their lowest level since 2020 today. coming up, more levels on deck to report. one has a movement of 12% up or down. we will have the story and how

to transition. ♪ snow day by caitlyn smith ♪ celebrate the journeys that bring us closer together. the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is back with offers on vehicles like the 2025 glc suv. now through january 2nd.

♪ (vo) whether your phone's broken or old, we've got you. with verizon, anyone can trade in any phone, any condition. and get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence, on us. and ipad and apple watch series 10, all three on us. that's up to $2,000 in value. only on verizon. it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall.

change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. welcome back. still a very

busy earnings season and let's get a look at the earnings. with three consumer favorite categories, live music, shopping and chicken and they don't have to go together. here is gina sanchez who is the senior market strategist. let's start with live nation. the stock is up in the past week and benefiting from the trump win. and wall street settling with the doj and the antitrust settlement. more dealmaking could boost them in the year to come. what does this mean for you? >> this is one that is a stock that has a tremendous margin and strong expectation for growth. i think a lot of that is the price challenge for this stock. that trump bump which you are describing which is the election boost that might get them to settle with the doj,

that is also priced in. that said, even before the election, you already saw a lot of support for the stock. meaning if they had to go to the mattresses with the doj, they still had enough margin. this is an incredibly high margin business and so i think this stock looks good regardless but it looks slightly better. the challenge to any investor right now is that it is well priced. >> exactly. it is 61. let's move along and quickly talk shop of phi which is been struggling since the 2021 highs. it's up 15% this year, it's about to report. do you like it or would you stay awake? >> this is one we own and we like this stock. with its base of users, it is solid with big names in there and they've been able to upsell those names. you could say this is a solid stock from that perspective. the challenges

growth and with that said, they tend to guide conservatively and they are set to be on earnings and the growth trajectory looks pretty good even with the caveat that i described which is they are going to have to work hard to continue to add users. >> you are feeling constructive on things today. how about tyson foods which has been off. they have headwinds with downgrades from piper sandler with beef and chicken pricing and the drought conditions could impact production. and the company's new cfo is officially at the helm, what do you do here? >> this is one we have stayed away from. one of the problems is their beef segment which has been a trouble spot for them and they have simply been unable to grow their heard and have capacity limitations. you can argue that the rest of the business which is chicken and pork have done okay, this is in front of them

and they can't seem to catch the momentum. every stock has been able to catch momentum and if the stock cannot catch momentum in this market, that is assigned. >> what do you make of all of this? >> there is a motion happening right now and i think investors are not looking at fundamentals right now and there is a bit of euphoria in the market. once we get past that euphoria, we continue with the fact that interest rates will likely stay higher and where we are going and that will be a challenge for all valuations and not just evaluations we described here. all valuations will need a good reset and that is the question. >> all right gina sanchez, thank you for that addition of the exchange. avquick break. stay with us. time to eat. i don't want this. i want corndogs! ♪♪ corndogs! corndogs! corndogs!

♪♪ i need another corndog!

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or

call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. >> welcome to power lunch. i had them up too loud in my ear. we are glad to have you here on a monday and stocks once again are hitting record highs following the election of president trump. this comes as we are starting to hear about positions in the trump administration and who is going wher