and get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence, on us. and ipad and apple watch series 10, all three on us. that's up to $2,000 in value. only on verizon. welcome to power lunch alongside kelly evans. i am tyler matheson. stocks have given back some recent gains but the focus remains on the fed as a new report suggest jay powell is willing to fight if president trump tries to remove him as chair and we will talk to the dallas fed president in a moment but the question of that looms large as this new administration comes on board. >> yes, no, you care to

elaborate? no. >> not permitted under the law. meanwhile trump continues to name people to his administration and the last name floated not yet confirmed his marco rubio and rumors about huckaby and what that could mean about relations with china. >> has a long history in the foreign relations committee but on the senate intelligence committee so not as though he doesn't have the bona fide experience to step into that role but being a senator where you are free to comment is different than being the policymaker where you have a lot more at stake i guess i would say. >> netflix said they have 70 million global users and this is they make us -- a push into sports with the tyson fight friday and nfl games on christmas day. i think of the nba on christmas day and nfl over thanksgiving more. at any rate, they are

doing big in sports. >> they have sold all the advertising inventories of people are excited to have people turn to netflix as a sports platform. >> forgive me is jake paul a podcaster? >> i don't know. >> what? he is a youtuber. >> thank you, paul. >> i wish him luck with mike tyson. >> piper sandler with the new note that president elect trump could name a shadow fed chairman and don't know what that would mean but we will explore with trump repeatedly threatening to fire him on his first term and in return he indicated he won't go down without a fight if it does come up and for more on what all of this means for the fed going forward, we turn to robert kaplan a former dallas fed president and the vice chairman at goldman sachs. welcome and good to have you here. >> good to see you. >> do you believe the president

has the power to fire the chair? >> it does not appear he does but more importantly, i think having an independent central bank is very critical to the united states and to any country. i would like to believe that the fed will continue to remain politically independent meaning allowing jerome powell to finish out his term. >> the president has apparently said in other venues, i feel as though ieed or deserve a say in monetary policy and do believe that is the case? this? >> any president or elected official or citizen for that matter has the right to have a say about fed policy but the issue for the fed is you want to be able to make decisions without regard to political influence or political considerations. they are very used to people on

the outside commenting in the president at times commenting and we saw that from 16 through 20 and they will be able to manage that. i think the thing that the administration normally would have more of a say in his supervision. usually, that changes with administrations. i think you will see the approach to supervision likely change here also. >> we will get another question with kelly jumping in. i am curious. the fed has signaled that it is on a prolonged rate cutting mission. do you think there is a possibility that the fed may pause and take a more of a wait and see attitude with a new administration coming in and economic policies bound to change with the incoming president saying he wants to re- up the 2017 tax cuts? do you think the fed may pause right now and would it be wise if they did?

>> i did say for the few months leading up to the election that there would be two phases to the rate cutting process and phase 1 is with inflation sticking around 2.5% and i think the fed has room to get those rates down to 4.25 or 4 1/2 which means one more rate cut in december. i have felt for some time that unless you see demonstrable progress from 2 1/2 to 2 the next set of cuts would be more in certain. i do think the markets are starting to realize that even before the election. in light of the election you will have a whole new raft of policies. i think if i were sitting in my former seat, i would be noncommittal, even in december until i got to the december meeting and i want to see the november jobs report and inflation data. i think it may well be

appropriate to take some time to see how these puzzle pieces of the new economic structure emerge before you make more decisions. i think the fed in the situation is wise to be a risk manager and not a prognosticator. if things are unclear, i think it is okay to slow down and give time to let them clarify. >> the timing could be awkward if they go on pause as president trump comes in the office which could be uncomfortable but at the same time and maybe i am an outlier but i am not convinced he is always for lower rates. maybe he will be but knowing that inflation is what got his predecessors thrown out of office to some extent and knowing consumer prices may risk going higher because of tariffs anyway, maybe he wouldn't mind cover to keep things tighter and inflation from breaking out again? >> they will be sensitive to

that. i have felt for the last few years we would have benefited more from a whole of government approach to fight inflation meaning in my opinion it shouldn't be just the fed whose job it is to deal with inflation. i think in this new administration, i think you are more likely to see a whole of government approach and the more i mean of that is you will see some of these directed government programs and the inflation reduction act most significant. you could see those repurposed or stood down. i think you are likely to see a very substantial regulatory review economy wide which is intended to create more productivity growth. i think on the other hand probably see less workforce growth and you certainly won't get the surge you got this year and we do have another policy where you see oil and gas

production and more prices down at the pump and there will be a whole question of what the mix will be fiscally as well as tariffs, but there are a lot of moving pieces. i think all of them may have some bearing on the organic growth of the economy. we are likely to shift from currently more government directed economy with government spending to i think the objective of a more organically driven growth economy. i think we will need to see more clarity on the policies to understand impact on inflation and i think the fed will be a key player in this. they won't be the only player going forward. >> all right. >> robert kaplan, thank you so much. always good to hear from you. we appreciate it. >> interesting as markets price out the odds of more rate cuts in a different landscape than what we thought. donald trump along with

elon musk is set to meet with a leader from argentina as they narrow down a secretary of state pick as power lunch returns. >> crypto watches sponsored by grayscale. crypto investing begins with grayscale.

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welcome back to power lunch. president elect trump has already started filling key positions in his second administration and so far has chosen a chief of staff, a border czar, nepa administrator and today reports suggest is next pick will be marco rubio as secretary of state a known foreign-policy who takes hard- line positions on china, and venezuela and let's bring in our policy analyst and michelle

both contributors. it is great to have you. michelle, what policy wise do you think rubio as secretary of state indicates and i hate to bring everything back to oil but i know he has been hawkish on israel as well. >> i think he is a china hawk which makes them interesting and deep knowledge of latin america and his concerns about china's involvement there and landing the latin america and buying supply chains out of latin america and a hawk on venezuela and cuba as well so bringing all of those together and i think also the fact that florida is now a red state so the replacement there you don't have to worry about losing somebody in the senate. >> i wonder if governor desantis would step down as governor and be a senator. >> that is interesting. it could happen. >> what you think of what michelle just said about senator rubio, and let's talk

specifically about china. how much tougher will and adversarial will the trump administration be with respect to the biden ministration? >> it is great to see you. i absolutely agree with way -- the way michelle laid it out. i think for the china community at large and in washington that is democrats and republicans, rubio is a well known quantity and you won't get many objections from the crowd watching over him as secretary of state if that is the pick and he served on the senate foreign relations committee and the appropriations committee which means that he knows how foreign-policy is shaped, sat, funded and executed which will bode well for u.s. china policy but in terms of continuity, there are continuities i would see with the biden ministration largely around the approach to

allies and using allies to compete with china and the problem is the divergence in the divergence to your point is this is shaping up to be a very hawkish u.s. china policy in this trump administration. allies will have a very difficult time taking their gloves off completely and moving away from a managed competition framework which we did see under biden. the could be some issues with allies and businesses who don't want to see this unbridled competition that i think we may see under the early days of the trump administration. >> i think about also when john bolton -- i think trump said i loved bringing him into the room because everybody else got scared and this guy may do something crazy so how much of this as a bargaining chip to intimidate people into thinking he may really go as far as he says he will and trump in the

back of his mind saying maybe i will if you don't follow through and i know we talk about china but is russia the area where we can see the most activity in the next few months? they are heating up right now with what is happening in russia and ukraine and they are doing aggressive things already which make you wonder if they are worried about how this relationship may kick off? >> every pick so far speaks to his confidence about how we performed in the election and where he wants to go and how tough he wants to be when it comes to foreign policy and on countries he thinks are taking advantage of the united states and absolutely sending a message to russia. >> what is the message? >> i think the messages they want to settle the war in ukraine absolutely for sure and i think that has already started. >> most people think that is bullish for russia and we hear reports they may give more access to ukraine and long- range weapons and maybe taking

land back or whatnot but why does russia seem to be in the back foot about this? >> i think because when trump was in power the last time even as he sounded friendly himself to putin everybody around him was anti-russia and one of the strongest anti-russia cabinets we had seen in a long time and he came on and said it is so strange that trump talks this way and everybody underneath them talks that way. here is the thing to remember about trump and i think about this in particular with china and it will sound weird but he is less ideological in some ways and in other words he doesn't want the country to be taken advantage of and that is as you point. so while both democrats and republicans are hawkish on china democrats do it with human right some like democracy and trump doesn't have those concerns and if they can come to a deal of some kind and he can say i had a better deal like you said i got a better deal out of mexico i think there is a deal to be done in part of bringing in people is

to send a signal he will be tough. what would you add to that? >> i think the chinese are aware that trump is transactional and the real issue is for what and they tried to float some early conversations about taiwan and becoming less supportive of the diplomatic space and weapons sales and none of that went anywhere ultimately but it doesn't mean the chinese won't try and trump won't listen. but i think this administration, at least in the terms of the way it is shaping up from the national security adviser mike walz if he picks rubio and if he comes back, that is a hawkish administration that i think we will try to keep much of the competition agenda that we have seen in the biden ministration in place and ramp it up but the chinese will take their shots. >> am i remembering correctly that senator rubio voted

against additional funding for ukraine? >> correct. i think michelle is spot on and i think rubio is in line with where most of the republican party is with the exception of mitch mcconnell and others about bringing this war to a close but i will make note that china has a role to play and they have been russia's lifeline so for putin this is golden and a broad open chessboard for him to play both sides of each other in the ukraine conflict so look for the diplomacy to kick into gear and leverage china and the usn ukraine. >> hang tight and we want to make notice of one item on the president-elect's agenda, argentina's president, javier milei will be meeting with president elect trump and elon musk. how has this track record been? >> he cut inflation dramatically and it was running

more than 25% per month and got it down 4% per month and cut spending dramatically and cut the federal budget of argentina 30% in one month. elon musk is a confidant, a close confidant of both javier milei and donald trump and then based on what elon musk did at twitter and now ask with a number of people working there dramatically and seeing what javier milei is done in argentina there could be cuts in spending and i don't doubt he is inspired about what he sees in terms of trying to reduce the size of the federal budget if the president will let them go that far. >> that is the lesson? >> probably, yes. that you have to have political will to cut spending and even steve mnuchin was on saying we have to cut spending but you can't do it too fast because it could lead to a recession and

it will lead to that in argentina but they felt they had to do shock therapy because the economy had been so bad and so inflationary. >> how has his support been being he introduced that and inflation is still existing. >> so it wasn't bad as people expected and his popularity is still very high even though the government jobs dramatically by thousands and thousands partly because when 40% of the population is living in poverty even though 60% get some kind of government transfer, you vote for something else because what was not working before you don't want anymore. i think they are willing to give him more time and poverty rose definitely but also it increased the social security network in terms of the basket of goods when you go to the supermarket so previously the way they subsidized our version of food stamps it was only covering 50% in exchange for all this and they raise that to

100% so they shifted some of the social spending to make sure the poor were to starving and that was the goal so it may have helped him keep his popularity as he makes the economy much more competitive and that will be the difference between him and trump. trump is talking about tariffs and argentina had a lot of tariffs and a lot of intervention and javier milei wants none of that. he is a hard-core libertarian who wants to get rid of that. i don't think they agree necessarily in that way. >> is the economy there in argentina recovering? >> in april they had a slight uptick, this past april which was shocking and a few things have happened. the market rate and official rate have become much closer and argentina which is a sign of the exchange power. that is a good sign and it means people believe much more in the currency and $18 billion

have returned to a system that has been very interested and he got rid of rent control. rent has come down and rent has been more affordable for some people in some ways. has it recovered yet? no. it isn't as bad as people thought in the population is willing to be patient. >> that is fascinating. we have a lot to talk about. thank you for sticking with us. >> how would in america first platform impact international markets and we look for some ways to hedge the risk ipor n we navigator wind power lunch returns after this. sent! okay, oop! even bigger. sent. [sending swoosh, notification alert] still bigger. okay, yeah i'm not doing that— [typing noises, sending swoosh] i think it still looks good! [notification alert] oh — even bigger.

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care. [ screeching ] [ chuckling ] [ vocalizing ] that's a choice. [ vocalizing ] think of what we could do together. welcome back. we have some things to tell you about and let's get to steve with those details. here they say the fed won't really consider or model the policies of the president-elect until the become clear any calls tariffs a one time price change and not inflationary in the first round but he then goes on to say that the effects of tariffs on inflation depends on whether countries retaliate and you get a back and forth and that is a long-term effect

and he expects the strong labor market and economy to be strong over time and he said consumer spending continues a surprise to the upside and if inflation does that he said is the one thing that could give them pause and he is backing into the idea that he doesn't expect them to cut in december but he doesn't expect a big surprise from the labor market and more on the inflation side is where the surprise would come from and goes on to discuss this idea of the neutral rate and where it will sell because that is the big question. he suggests it may have gone up in the short run and talks about the possibility of higher productivity remaining which could meet -- mean a higher rate but they say it is restrictive and does need to come down but doesn't say where and saying close to neutral right now so he does see scope to reduce the rate and he has to wait until he says whatever is enacted by congress for the executive branch before figuring out how fiscal policy will affect the fed and some

expect this not in the long run because finally the bar for stopping runoff is high and one other thing he asked about the idea of potential interference and said he is confident they will focus on economic goals and not respond to pressure from washington. let's give you a quick market check. the dow industrials are off about half percent in the s&p 500 and nasdaq are basically flat with an equally small loss for the s&p 5000 -- 500 but the rest is moving lower by little bit more than a percentage point. let's turn to you. the market navigator. >> let's dovetail off of some of this tariffs and trade comments we heard in president elect trump is vowing to take that america first approach when it comes to foreign policy

so what will that mean for those international markets? joining me now is the chief economist and head of research for investment managers and thank you very much. if you look at the comments we just heard, this is front and center right now with regard to how the economic impact could ripple for tariff and trade policy and where do you see the biggest impacts? >> if it is just a 10% tariff on everything that enters the united states, it's probably not natural for the rest of the world because you don't change the relative positions of each country and simply deteriorate the relative position compared to u.s. producers and in many cases there actually know u.s. producers so if it is a 10% generic hike it probably will be okay but i think the 60% hike on chinese products could be more disruptive and especially in europe china has become a key market for our

exporters which means if as a reaction to the tariffs we end up with a further slowdown in demand, that will impact exporters throughout the world over in the second round the fact is this is also where we can get fiercer competition from chinese producers on other markets and on european markets itself and more on other emerging countries. that is probably the key and there is a third element which i think is a bit fuzzier and it is the possibility that we end up with some contagion from the u.s. bull market to the other markets. obviously what is currently this is consistent with a bit more inflation clearly and potentially a bit more growth but that is consistent with high interest rates across the curve i would say. that is okay for the united

states but as you know the u.s. bull market tends to be dominant and the other markets tend to align themselves on the signals coming in from the united states and such an increase wouldn't be in the interest of many of the countries which, at the moment are facing inflationary pressure and are not facing the kind of fiscal push we can now expect from the u.s. >> really quickly, that is a lot to unwrap and unpack. there has to be a relative difference between certain markets around the world on the emerging or otherwise that are more geared toward the united states or china and take us through the thesis. >> definitely. you have these in the emerging world which are still dependent and reliant on u.s. demand and if this demand goes up countries like mexico would certainly benefit but then other countries for instance latin america and other countries like brazil or chile

which increasingly have put themselves in the orbit of other chinese cycles and if china slows down as a reaction to other policies that could be problematic for those country and move away from that. >> thank you very much and have a great day. >> it is an interesting ballet that will be conducted of tariffs go up because as was pointed out in some cases while it could penalize foreign manufacturers who are exporting into the united states, there may not be u.s. manufacturers to take the place of them. >> of course one of the interesting points for a while and this is a long-term trend but if you do look at some of those emerging markets that are geared toward the united states like mexico, if they can outperform economies like brazil that are more dependent on china, there could be a

relative play for some traders. >> back to you. >> crypto's big bet is paying off and look at bitcoin back in the green as it re-approaches 89,000 and almost 90 as we speak at 180 points shy in the industry has spent more than $130 million on key races and bitcoin is up 25% since the election alone and more after election alone and more after this built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab

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welcome back. i am kate rogers with your news update. the state department said the united states doesn't plan to change its policy on arms transfers to israel as the 30 day deadline to improve humanitarian conditions expires. officials say israel has made good but limited progress to address concerns laid out by antony blinken and the defense

secretary lloyd austin last month and meanwhile president elect trump has nominated former arkansas governor mike huckabee to become the u.s. ambassador to israel. mike huckabee has been an outspoken supporter of israel amid its war with hamas and the federal aviation administration is browing -- barring them from flying for 30 days struck by gunfire. on monday they headed for haiti's capitol and diverted to the dominican republic after was hit and they said they discovered a bullet hole in one of the planes that departed haiti after it landed in new york. back over to you. turning back to the markets, we are taking a breather but bitcoin went positive and so to the nasdaq this coming after the dow closed yesterday about 44,000 for the first time in the s&p and nasdaq are on pace for the first negative day in six although they are down four points in our next guest said a mild correction would be welcome. you johnson is chairman and chief investment officer of hugh johnston economics. talk us through it and what is going on here?

>> there is a lot going on. since the election we had a move up in stocks which is quite something to see and i would give you, i would say based on the number crunching, call it speculation that i do, it moved from being roughly a little bit undervalued to being over value and we are about 6 1/2% as i do the numbers right now over value in both the level that the s&p should average for the current quarter. i think i also may add that the upside potential between now and the end of 2025 is not great even though it is 1.7% and even as you go further out the returns look like they will be much better. right now, we are fully valued. that is always -- evaluation is a primary concern of myself all the time and of deep concern right now and we are a little bit overvalued of pricing. >> is it too much optimism? >> it's not just that we are

overvalued but a high in widespread optimism. you do know, tyler, historically , when you see a combination of overvaluation which is one of my concerns and then of course when we have high and widespread optimism, that's a signal that you should be a little bit careful. after a move up to the upside that we have seen that does make a lot of sense and very rational. >> have we talk to you about bitcoin? >> you don't have to talk to me about that to get me to be looking at it and thinking of it. one of the questions i continually ask myself is, and it is true of whether it is bitcoin or nvidia which i own and when i think about bitcoin and look at the move we head to the upside and we have seen these before i ask myself the question is this a move that is

speculative? have we moved from something rational the something that is irrational? trying to figure that out with bitcoin when you really have no underlying fundamentals is very very difficult. i would say looking at the performance itself i would say quite frankly it looks to me to be very speculative. we may be headed toward some difficult times for bitcoin. everybody does argue the same thing. and that is, look, there is a limited supply and strong demand for the underlying bit coin and hard to fight against that kind of a combination. i am giving you my reflections but they are only reflections and shouldn't be adhered to or thought seriously about and i am not an expert on bitcoin on a longshot. >> what sectors could prosper most and what -- let's go to speculative the long-term investing in under a for your trump administration, what would be the sectors to favor and those to put in your

disfavor box? >> it is a great question. i think you look at the performance of the markets since he was elected. interestingly enough we see, essentially couple market sectors like industrials and technology have been performing very well and like consumer discretionary stocks performing very well. it is good to see that. those are bull market sectors and i like to see those performing well which gives me a signal that investors are on board the bull market and on the negative side leave utilities out of it and that is ordinarily very negative but of course we have a lot going on with a.i. and utilities which takes that out of the consideration, but there are others like consumer staples, healthcare and avoid

those and those are bear market sectors and performing like so. the good news is bull market sectors and sectors that will benefit from a trump administration, i think and i hope in across my fingers are performing well in the so- called bear market sectors of the ones that won't perform well or not perform as well are at the bottom of the performance letter. >> did you say utilities was on that list? that i mishear that? >> i think we lost our connection with hugh johnston. our thanks to him. i think he said utilities being a non-bull market sector would be one to stay away from. >> normally, yes, but everything happening with a.i. now. >> yes. absolutely. let's turn to the bond market with big jumps in yield ahead of tomorrow's inflation report. >> indeed you nailed it. cpi tomorrow and ppi the next day. the market has much different prognoses or diagnoses for inflation in the u.s. economy, much different than many economists as rates pop before

we see the data and it is not only that but as the wall street journal said 23 nobel laureate economist that it wrong on how the equity markets would respond after the election. if you look at the dow jones chart after you look at the interest chart you can see it is a mere image taking a breather and finally a breather after such an excited response to the obvious notion we will have better growth under the new trump administration. if we continue to look at 10 year, look at the two day and let's drag friday back into the picture. fridays high yield established early was 4:35 and today it got much more exciting once it traded above that yield and finally the dollar index is on pace to either close at the best level since the end of june or the end of april and is a very close call. tyler kelly, back to you. >> thank you very much.

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welcome back. shares of netflix or hire today and up 12% in one month and today the company been an update on the advertising ahead of two major sporting events coming to the platform and we are joined now with more and a lot of excitement at netflix. julia? >> that is right. they announced some new numbers about the advertising business a few years after the launch and shares have remained at

180. they save their ad supported options reach 70 million monthly users and they say they see progress across all countries and half of the new netflix sign-ups are for the advertisement plan and a company or country where it offers that option. they also announced that for the two christmas day nfl games netflix has sold out of available inventory announcing they are partnering with fanduel to be the exclusive betting partner and verizon will be the netflix christmas kickoff sponsor in those games and partnerships are building on the live event business that netflix has been investing in with events including the mike tyson boxing match coming up on friday and he also have the wwe starting in january. but these sporting events are

seen as key to building that audience for their advertisements. the company announced today some new measurement tools including a partnership with nielsen to rate the nfl games to improve targeting and measurement which they rollout next year. >> very interesting and who do you like and that fight? >> i won't weigh in on that but i don't think i am not the target demographic for that and i am more likely to be watching the christmas day nfl games but i think what is interesting is netflix wants to have a little bit of something for everybody and they want to make sure they have content just like the entirety of the tv and cable tv universe and just like we saw that bundle of channels work so well with pay tv and advertise mean, what they are looking to do is have this assortment of channels within that netflix platform and have the option of it being supported to cut down the cost dramatically. >> all right. thank you so much. speaking of the nfl this thursday we will have an interview with the minnesota

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welcome back and let's do some key movers of the day with

michael landsberg and it is a great to have you here. but start with home depot after earnings went down fractionally and they had a third quarter be in expect comp sales to fall 2.5% and sales are cautious coming off of a tough stretch. what you do with this stock? >> i think that number that has declined is still an acceleration of where they have been so i do like the story there in a few things we do like they did an acquisition of srs which is a company of roofing, landscaping and pool business which hasn't hit the bottom line which is a positive and also they benefit from hurricanes and they benefit from natural disasters which is awful to say but a lot of people who do renovations and things like that home depot is at the forefront of getting that business and at some point rates go lawyer which will be -- lower which will be positive. >> what about honeywell and it shows they are rising after the activist investor elliott disclosed the $5 billion stake

in the investment pushing it to break itself up into separate aerospace and automation businesses and what you think of honeywell and elliotts calls to break it up? >> we have not owned the stock for five or six years and it is underperformed by about 50% in part of the reason is exactly what elliott said, they aren't getting the multiple for the aerospace part of the business which is the faster growing more larger of the business and i think with elliott getting in and not something that just makes a lot of bets and they take their time and do some good research and it's attractive that there is an entry point given the fact that even if they don't get the multiples that elliott is talking about probably it hasn't upside if they break it off or at least they have a discussion about cost savings and i think it is a by but we don't own it but they will look at it now that it is breaking it up as a possibility. >> do you feel the same way about tyson foods and they

expected results in somewhat higher prices for beef and chicken lifted revenues and what you do? >> i think that is the name again we don't own it and it's a name that is attractive for a few reasons in the chicken business has picked up and i always thought until i got in this business that tyson was more chicken but they have more beef revenue than chicken but what is been interesting is the beef revenue the margins have been squeezed in the chickens saved their quarter but the other thing i think it's important to look at is the success of the glp-1 drugs and people lose a lot of weight but mostly losing muscle if you don't have protein to replace at that is a problem and i think putin -- protein replacements are good things to own and i think you can get it here for the fact i think people have to change their diets a bit because if they lose the weight they need to keep the muscle. >> over the protein and count your chickens. >> thank you. thank you very much and we appreciate your being with us

today. >> can we do a quick final check and i believe tomorrow morning brings us the cpi in a may be off by a day. it could be right as we're talking but ♪ and welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli. we are live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins the rally take a rest on the seventh day. let's look at the scorecard with 60 minutes in regulation. that s&p barely off right now, actually close to the flat line. it had been down half a percent midday lows. dow jones industrials the outperformer, settling back more