tv Fast Money CNBC November 12, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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from here? the whole digital economy that it sort of gotten off sides for a while post covid. >> yeah, it's a huge move for that name to your point. shopify, spotify, rocket companies, rocket lab, always lots to talk about here at overtime. all right, well that's going to do ♪ in the heart of new york's times square, here is what is on top. china concerns. what a couple of hawkish picks. and for investments in the region. and countdown to cpi, what to expect tomorrow and how the markets could react. plus, amgen shares slim down after analyst spot something strange in the data. how nvidia all time highs and optimizing your portfolio. i'm melissa lee live from the nasdaq on the desk tonight, tim,
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steve, and guy. the dow dropping nearly 400 points. transports and small caps down sharply. bitcoin briefly touching a new record high 90 k. we will have more on that coming up. first, a major appointment by the president-elect that could reshape the relationship between the u.s. and china. president trump to have chosen senator marco rubio for secretary of state. this follows the announcement that florida congressman mike waltz will take the role of national security advisor. the announcement showing what trump said he is going to do on the campaign trail is coming to fruition. we will get the reaction from beijing in a moment. starting with eamon in west palm beach with the latest on the trump transition. >> we don't have an official announcement of marco rubio adds secretary of state yet. we will wait for that designation to come. we expect that he will be trump's pick for secretary of state and rubio is somebody who
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is as hawkish on china pretty much as you can get in washington, d.c., these days. he is somebody that i know relatively well. we interviewed him for our documentary last year on chinese corporate espionage against american countries. rubio is deeply skeptical of the chinese government and all of its intentions regarding the u.s. economy. watch for that to play out if he does end up as secretary of state for donald trump. also, congressman mike waltz the dez ig knee as national security advisor. we have an official statement from waltz that he put out, he says together with president trump and the team we will confront the evolving challenges of today's world and hold firm against those who would harm our way of life. our nation deserves nothing less than bold, unwavering leadership, and that's what he will deliver. no specific reference to china though in that waltz statement. one other thing to think about
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with the trump administration that's coming together in terms of its china policy is the unclear role of elon musk in all of this. we don't know exactly what musk will do in terms of this overall government efficiency commission he talked about, how that will look, what kind of authority he might have or not have. but musk is somebody who does a lot of business in china, has been reluctant to criticize chinese leadership in the past. he attended the summit meeting in san francisco with xi jinping last year, and he is somebody who has seen as someone who the chinese government would be likely to lean on hard if they needed to do influence washington. so how does all of that play out in the mix of an administration which is as hard line on china as we have seen to date. that's an open question. >> i know it's impossible to guess, but are you saying that maybe elon musk could have a tempering effect to these hawks? >> it's possible.
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it's possible. we will have to see what he does. his role is undefined right now. he is unpredictable in the world. so who knows? but he has a lot of business in china. he is dependent on china, the chinese market in many ways. he is somebody that the chinese would presumably reach out to express their view of what washington is doing and see him as a conduit or somebody they can get a hearing from given elon's sweeping power now as this new administration is taking shape that does raise questions about what will his role be vis-a-vis china. we don't have any information on what he might be saying behind closed doors on china. the incentives are worth taking a look at. >> thank you. for more on how the appointments of rubio and waltz are being received, eunice yoon. >> melissa, the chinese foreign ministry hasn't commented on rubio or waltz, but the two are
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seen as some of the most aggressive hawks on china. senator marco rubio has been sanctioned twice by beijing. he has been highly critical of china's handling of human rights in hong kong and the far west muslim area. the senator is also a vocal supporter of taiwan, which the chinese government claims as its own. it's unclear how the sanctions would impact rubio's ability to engage with the chinese since he is barred from the country. as for waltz, today chinese media focused on his push with russian grow to expand america's maritime strategy to combat china's naval presence in the region. despite the tough stance, there is a question of how hard line the two will be. president-elect trump has at times signaled a weaker commitment to taiwan and his supporter elon musk has business interests and investments in china. that could cleed to sparring matches over foreign policy within the trump administration.
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melissa. >> thank you. i think the mention of elon musk is a very interesting one because he is the ceo, the only foreign automaker who has a fully owned factory in china. and there must be a reason for that. there hussle be some sort of goodwill towards tesla. he was able to clear that hurdle. so to could he be a tempering affect? >> i don't know. you think about what president-elect trump has said abt taiwan and reluctance, and i'm choosing that word to potentially back them up, god forbid something happens, they have to pave their way. marco rubio has been a china hawk before covid, i think, as eunice said, sanctioned twice, barred from the country. you put those three people in a room and i don't know what this sort of game plan is in terms of china. i'll say this. i think if you think it through, tariffs are probably more robust than people think, which i think is inflationary, which i think
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is one of the reasons bond yields continue to go higher. i think the cpi number tomorrow, which is not going to be affected by what's going on with china policy, is part of the story here because this is all inflationary. and there is a part of china that i think we all don't recognize how important they are to the global economy at times at least. we just had a ppi number which contracted 2.9% out of china few days back. that was disappointing. look at the performance of anything resource related and commodity rated. there is a lot of reasons this trade is sour the last three to four weeks. some of it is the stronger dollar, some china. when you look at the performance of chinese equities, the fxi or k webb or alibaba, who reports this week, the bottom line here, there are so many different time measures and cross currents and whether we are trading china in the short term or long term is a big question here. i will also say back to china,
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you know, how they are reacting to this historically the cliche, china plays the long game and won't react in the short term. there has been a lot of provocation over the medium term. i think they will make a stronger move. >> i think the musk inclusion does perhaps raise doubt around alignment of interests. as you mentioned, he has business interests there. the other point, he has echoed what has been a very black and white hard-line stance pertaining to international relations. here as you are worried about the inflationary pressures that would be the result of tariffs here. you have musk on the other hand that perhaps might be a sounding board of reason, and then that takes me into what are the fiscal tum lie that have been highly criticized coming out of china and beijing. to me it makes more sense in terms of how we have not seen
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the bazooka affect or bust type of infusion of capital or physical stum lus that we would have expected and china bulls have been looking for. i think perhaps it leads to some tit-for-tat and raises questions for me, for u.s. retailers and for the supply chains, that would meet, to me, be much of of an inflationary concern. >> i think marco rubio has been a big of a hawk on russia as he has been on china. and when you look at who is -- >> is that supposed to make people feel better? >> well, where i'm going from here, when you say elon musk will settle down the voices or moderate the voices, trump is actually a strategic hawk on china. he complements xi jinping and then he hits xi jinping. but he always complements him. so i don't think he is as hawkish as we think he really is. what he says he is going to do and what he is going to do. >> two different things.
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i think it's posturing. >> it's fascinating this goes down on a day when intel's vice-chair was meeting with the essentially the vice premier or commerce minister of china talking about u.s./china relations and also investment we would be willing to take investment or support investment by intel into our chip industry. this is all going on. these headlines are coming through at least early this morning from china where we have got arguably one of our most important chip companies, whether they performed on the field that way or not, there is a lot of strategic interest towards intel and around it and here they are. and all the parties were saying the right things, including china, saying they want to have a healthy relationship and they want to have a long-term and stable sustainable relationship as relates to tech. whether that happens, probably not in the short run. >> a quick trade, i owned alibaba. my trade i owned it around $100. i averaged today, because i think a lot of this stuff is set
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up for a bounce right now. we are getting the worst news. strategically, i think we are set up for a bounce. >> alibaba, the thing what david tepper said, you own everything if it's not nailed down? >> yeah. >> he is probably going to wind up being right. the timing of that announcement couldn't have been worse. you will see right around 117 when those comments came out. you see we have round tripped the entire thing. >> that trade was predicated on china stimulus, big china stim loyce. bus u does the ark of the trade change with a very, you know, hard stance on tariffs? >> i think that's a fair question. part of the sell krauf has been predicated on that. but i think china internet stocks alibaba specifically are far more insulated in the tariff war than i think -- i think the bazooka of chinese money flows is bigger than the tariff threat. >> closer look at how the new administration could impact
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u.s./china relations, shahzad is the managing director of china international. so what do you make of the appointment? do you see the policy shaping taking shape at this point? >> well, look, if it is going to be senator rubio, that's a very, very strong signal to the chinese not only because he has been rhetorically hawkish on china. if you look at the legislation, very, very tough, i think very, very good in terms of results oriented if you think about it, that's coming out of the rubio office the last many a years now. so i think we are looking at tough china policies definitely from the state department. if it is senator rubio. and then the trade team that is being put together. >> does this tell you anything about tariffs and how hard they could be, or no? >> i think the tariff question is going to rest with the team that he is putting together. those discussions probably go very, very aggressive and very,
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very live between thanksgiving and christmas. >> i think a lot of our audience cares a lot about u.s. companies doing business in china. so we waited so long for some kind of reaction. i mentioned before, china plays the long game. but we have had enough now that it would be a medium game response to actually push back on u.s. companies. do you think that could be coming or will it then be a result of some kind of policy act in this administration? >> i think absolutely. look, the chinese toolkit is far more limited than the american toolkit. american companies are absolutely one of the levers that they could push. there is a big target on the back of american companies no doubt. they are struggling as it is in china because of the economic slowdown. if beijing decides it wants to hurt trump by going after american companies, they could most certainly do that. >> do you think that china is weaker than we perceive it to be at this point? when we are looking for the bazooka, does it exist, or are
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they so much more in decline than we think they are, or is that -- am i making that up to make myself fulfill a prophecy? >> the problem in d.c. and the street is some of the bearish narrative on china gets overplayed. here is the deal. what you said. the bazooka is there. if they fire the so-called ba glueck a next year because they want to compete with tariffs, that's not stimulus. you are using money to run in place. or maybe you are running a little bit slower. preventing you from running too much slower. i think that is a very hard cap there. >> to taiwan for a second. are they going to be forced to buy bombers from the united states, you know, arsenal like missiles and those types of things to show trump they are serious about defending themselves? is that what this game is about? >> that's a big chunk of what we are trying to get done if you talk to policymakers in concerned concerned about the taiwan invasion. the concern in d.c. is not just
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that does china invade but do the taiwanese want to fight. the appetite for that now is very low and many people in d.c. are very concerned about that. >> what is the incentive for china not to punish u.s. companies? just to try to understand the other side of it. is it economic, not destruction, but hurt on their part? i would assume foreign direct investment would grind to a halt. it's already pretty slow as it is. >> it's slowing down. treat them as an ally. corporate america is china's biggest ally right now. so you could put that on the back burner and say we don't go after you, but go back to d.c. and tell trump to back off. >> i see. great to have you with us. thank you. so does a china trade change in your view or do you think that -- are the tariffs a big question mark in the china trade? >> i think that the question is about the extent of the tariffs. i think i would be a bit foolish or asleep at the wheel to assume
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hope for the best-case scenario. my concern is around some of the international markets and what that blow back may be and also about u.s. supply chains. we are not a manufacturing company and we rely on that infrastructure. so for me these responses don't exist in a vacuum. i think the response, if you harken back to the supply chain shocks of 2020, a repeat of that is not what the u.s. consumer needs now. >> all-reports on the 15th. so i guess next week, early. i think alibaba here, fill that gap we created on the move higher, basically round trip the entire tried. i don't think the alibaba trade is over by any stretch. by itself, the stock is too cheap. >> long-term holder, long-term investor, bit of a trader. i do think the story around china is one where right now sentiment remains about as low as it can get after the -- everyone said it was a trade nailed it, by the way.
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let's be clear. round trip. it was a trade. alibaba i will continue to say with 340% of the market cap at cash is not a china macro call. i will also say the $17 trillion economy that is china i think we are underestimating the impact of what tariffs to the can do. coming up, after hours action in today's session. instacart, spotify, occidental. details ahead. and a biotech beat down, amgen dropping. interesting data in the trial report. we will talk to the analyst who made that call. don't go anywhere. "fast" is back in two. >> this is "fast" with melissa lee right here on cnbc. ♪
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jen, we've engineered xfinity mobile with wifi speeds up to a gig, so you can download and do much more all at once. it's an idea that's quite attractive. or... another word... fashionable? i was gonna say- “popular! you're gonna be pop-uuuu-larrr!” can you do defying gravity?! yeah, get my harness. buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see wicked, only in theaters november 22nd. welcome back to "fast money." shares of amgen seeing the worst days in three years after potential side effects of maritide. apparently hidden in the appendition of the phase one trial results according to analysts the data show a 4% decrease in bone mineral density over 12 weeks for trial patients on the largest dose. the analyst who wrote that note,
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olivia. i am curious how this happens. you get a spreadsheet and you hit a tab and you find it? nobody else is looking at this? >> it's funny. the data has been out there since february and the data has been combed over so many times. but we have a really great team and we look at it closely. it was a little bit of a fluke to basically right click on an excel spreadsheet and you hit unhide and few more sheets pop up. i don't think anyone had seen it. i think amgen is surprised that someone found tand under covered it. i don't know if they knew it was there. it's all in the public domain. and so anyone you don't need a log-in. this is the phase one nature arm. you can look at it, unclick it, and it all pops up. so it was a fluke that we found it. definitely important data. obviously, it's getting a lot of attention. of. >> how does this impact your
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forecast for maritide? >> yeah, look, the thing is, we don't know how big of a risk this is. this was from a phase one data set. very small patient numbers. and they do have phase two data coming by the end of the year. it's in a lot more patients, a longer follow-up. a 52-week study. there are a lot of unknowns. but this does add a risk. i will say this was a known theoretical risk around bone marrow density before today, but now we actually have data on it. like i said, small patient numbers, so hard to know really how much weight to put on this data. we have don't know if it will plateau, keep decreasing over time in a long study. amgen is working on different titration schedules for dosing. they may change their dosing. they may get to right and we may see less tolerability issues. but right now i think the read here is that it was a theoretical risk and now that there is some data behind it
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adds a little bit more validity. >> is it possible that the bone mineral density loss was just coincident or does it actually -- you mentioned it's in the highest dosages. is there a less of a degree in the lower dosages which leads you to believe that it is causal? >> yeah. there is, there is. and it seems to be dose dependent. that has to do with the fact in the higher dose you are seeing a much steeper decline and a bigger magnitude of decline, too. that signals that it is probably dose dependent, probably is mechanistically related. but again unfortunately there are a lot of unknowns. i think we will get a better picture of this drug in totality when we have the phase two data in happened. again that will be by the end of the year. amgen, hopefully, will address some of these comments around bone mineral density. there are a lot of unknowns at this point. >> the 7% decline in shares,
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what's your take? >> yeah, i understand it. our kind of base case valuation if you strip out obesity is you get to somewhere around 250 on the stock. obviously, it's trading closer to 300, so there is a decent amount value in the stock as there should be. we have been positive on amgen, positive on the probability of success for their phase two data. i would say today's data doesn't change our view, but it does add more risk and i think at is this point you do have to have competitive profiles and you have to be able to overcome some of these hurdles if you are a later entrant in the obesity space. there are other players, so the bar has been set. >> right. olivia, thank you for joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> right click on all your tabs. you never know what you will find. you strip out obesity, still 250 and trade agent 300. >> the rigor of the work, you admire that. they combed through a lot of
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things. 250 is interesting. they just reported what i thought was a decent quarter on october 30th. the market didn't like it that much. valuation isn't completely stretched. but maybe a lot of the premium in the stock based on the run its had on this obesity thing. 250 gets to the april low. that's actually a pretty good place. >> when she was pressed on the 250, you could find someone who says 200. probably flexible on that, on the level to the downside. so you probably want to proceed with caution. they also have a patent cliff that is 70% of eir portfolio by 2030. that's probably 20% more than the rest of the space has. so i did speak, i did a little bit of a cliffsnotes, i spoke to jared, and that's where he is at, at 200 to 250 as far as the downside. >> it's interesting. across obesity, it hasn't been a great three months.
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it's been a period where the stocks have been running into questions not only about the next phase of essentially these treatments and ultimately the valuation is really where i think investors are wrestling with. we priced in so much of the addressable market. we had five different assessments of the addressable market and also the ancillary plays and what it means for other industries. i think you are probably fading any strength. >> you know, i will try to be the desk optimist here. depending whether if they are stripping out the obesity strug is 200 or 250, you are looking at 16 to 30% of additional market value that's being assigned here to the obesity drug. to me the fact that you still have that baked in despite these phase one trial data release tells me that the target addressable market is not as concerning as we thought because of oversaturation of competitors and new intrants coming into the space.
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for me looking at the novos of the world, despite the fact that there is likely increased volatility, the tams probably supports the valuations here. coming up, all the after hours action. instacart, spotify and occidental. and stocks taking a breather from post-election surge. all eyes on tomorrow's cpi report. how that inflation gang impacts the market's next moving and the fed's next move. we are back right after this. ok meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.
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welcome back to "fast." a check on the movers. home build everything in the red. running rates elevated. home depot warning of a cautious consumer due to higher mortgage rates. viking getting a boost. morgan stanley upgrading to overweight saying the stock lagged peers, resulting in more attractive relative valuation and a host of after hours movers, maple bear, the parent of instacart -- >> could you say that again? >> maple bear. dropping. the company giving guidance.
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spotify jump after a gross margin beat expectations. monthly users above estimates. occidental petroleum missing on revenue expectations. fanduel apparent flooder higher after earnings and revenues that beat inflations, and cava surging, also raising the full year outlook. now up more than 280% this year. that's unbelievable. shares of spirit air dropping after "the wall street journal" reporting they could file for bankruptcy within weeks. it's down 42% right now. you flagged home builders. >> home depot you see it, we have been talking about this, potential for a double top. technically it happened. the things they cautioned on are the things we have been talking about. so i think you sort of got to tread with a little bit of caution here in the home builders. if you are of the belief i am, one of these people, rates will continue to go higher, home builders are a tough add on the long side. >> and it's a little bit -- so i am long viking holdings. they have a limited amount of
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competition because they are a luxury luxury cruise line. they have lagged the group and that's why it helped the valuation. i am long. staying long. but to guy's point on home depot, a lot of this was from the storms, too. there is a lot of things that were ordered might be a -- tomorrow investors waiting a key inflation gauge. what could it mean for the fed's next move? what to expect and whether the post-election rally still has more room to go. don't is go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. >> follow the "fast money" podcast. we are back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money." the major averages taking a breather. the dow off 1% while the s&p 500 and nasdaq closed slightly lower. small caps getting hit hardest. russell 2000 falling nearly 2%. bitcoin traded above 90k. up more than 30% since trump's win. for more on what's next for the markets, tom michaud, the ceo of
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kbw. we were talking in the break about how things have really changed. from your standpoint what is the biggest thing that will change for your industry? >> we studied the financial services industry. number one is the fundamentals are getting better mainly because the yield curve is not inverted anymore. remember in the third quarter we ended the longest yield curve inversion in 47 years. that has meant that for two years banks had down earnings. the fundamentals are changing. we are now expecting earnings to do very well for the next two years because operating leverage is back and the yield curve is not inverted anymore. that's the fundamental case. and then the other items, which is you no longer i think have to deal with an environment which was very aggressive from a regulatory perspective. and i think you will have policy shift. you want to look at the market about policy shift, fannie and freddie, which have stocks that trade, they have ducked in a
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week. so have the preferreds. the market thinks there will be a policy change about housing in the united states with this election. and then you look at a group of stocks, the m&a boutiques. on average they are up over 60% year to date with some of the stocks having doubled. i think there is a whole idea that you are going to see the capital markets free up now that you don't have a policy for example that has been opposed to m&a in the nation. >> you answered my question. these banks one would think are m&a targets in this new administration. so i think not the entirety of the run, but a lot is predicated on that. >> when congress changed the laws in the mid '80s, it's been consolidation. many years ago the thought was the biggest banks were too big. they have gotten bigger. so the four big banks have 40% of the deposits. the right thing to do is for these banks to have competition, and rather than allowing no m&a, which means we will be frozen in
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time in these four big banks will get even bigger, you have companies like pnc, u.s. bank corp. and others who would like to be kpet at this time or more of a competitor to the big four and consolidate, which i think has a lot of logic to it if done right. >> and you talk about the yield curves. now the bank's friends. how about the current environment. we talked about the rally. how about if rates keep backing up the way they are, you have a lot of banks that have rallied that are rate -- you know, they are liability sensitive names and the world was pricing in rate cuts and these things have rallied while rates have gone higher and rates could go higher. what point are these trades offsides because some of them really are vulnerable and sensitive to higher rates, yet they are not responding at all here. >> look, you know, our base case is that we get a december rate cut and then we will get a 25 basis point rate cut every other meeting next year. that's in our base case.
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that leads us to believe we have 8% earnings per share growth next year followed by 12% earnings per share growth the year after. things that you mention, if it's a different pace, that may change that. but i'll also tell you we have very loloan growth in our model. we have 4% loan growth. the reality is i think if there is a surprise, we may get more loan growth. if that ps that, that would offset some rate differential. >> you mentioned before in our conversation during the break that maybe banks will take a breather. it's been really just a torrid run since the election. but how do you know when to get in? if you have been on the sidelines, and a lot of people de-risked before the election, stand to the side -- >> well, so there are a couple of etfs you could play. so the keefe bank index large cap pank, kwwb or the kwwr are
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two etfs you could buy. i would remember the rr r, regional banks because i think they will benefit more from the shape of the yield curve. you could play the etfs. so 2-2 of our favorite, we like truist, one of the biggest banks in the makes. 46 dividend yield. you get paid the weight. trades at nine times 25 earnings. one day they could trade at 12 times. webster financial is trading at a single digit multiple relative to 2025 earnings. so these are some of the -- so there are still stocks we think you can pick. i wouldn't be surprised if we caught our breath because it's been so strong. but maybe if that happens, it's a chance to start your position. >> great to see you. come by anytime. >> great to be with you. >> kbw. >> stifel has been unbelievable. congratulations for the team. what tim was talking about, he is too kind to mention it, at the peak of retails rates in the
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fall, bank of america had $130 billion hold to maturity losses on their balance sheets. rates worked in their favor over the summer. now rates are going back up again. there is a reason why warren buffett is pairing down and i think that's it. >> interesting piece about fdic reform and how you can support regional banks raising the $250,000 threshold. i think that's interesting considering the commercial lending aspect. that seemingly has lagged and will continue to lag, the m&a and some of the refinancing and things of that nature. so i think that's interesting. and that would definitely be a boon to the regional play. >> regionals are large. >> well, the way tom made it sound you want to go to regionals. they will be more competitive. i would have thought that you go large, they will gobble up the regionals, but the regionals will gobble up the smaller regionals. when i look at the chart on u.s. bank that's the most compelling. he named pnc and truist. looks like this -- and webster.
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looks like u.s. bank has defensively lagged the others that he mentioned. >> i feel very comfortable in the money center banks for the reasons that i think they will re-rate and i think they have diversified businesses. i think you have be very aware of what happened in this reality so far and how rates -- we are talking every day rates could go higher. certainly on the long end if not necessarily less cutting on the short end. i will say something else until terms of credit spreads. this is great for banks on some level. tom talked about the loan dynamics, which are wildly profitable. credit spreads haven't been this tight since may of 2007. a ridiculous rally in the last three weeks on credit spreads and at some point i think you have to be concerned about some of that risk of things moving too far. coming up, nvidia earnings a week away. the leader is on a monster run. does the options market believe it can continue? the set up next. and is a.i. about to take over finance? the one key use case that could be the technology's next
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frontier and how it can shake up wall street right after this. we're still going for that nice catch. we're still going for that perfect pizza. and with higher stroke risk from afib not caused by a heart valve problem,... ...we're going for a better treatment than warfarin. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk. and has less major bleeding. over 97% of eliquis patients did not experience a stroke. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily... ...or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. ask your doctor about eliquis.
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welcome back to "fast money." nvidia earnings due ought next wednesday and the a.i. darl's wild ride not slowing. it's up-more than 25% the past two months. closed today down less than a percent from a record. option traders are anticipating a big move. mike has the action. hey, mike. >> yeah, so the busiest single stock option traded at 3.3 million contracts. calls significantly outpacing puts by 2.4 to 1. the options implying a move of 8% on the day to day report next week. that's a little bit less than the 9.3% or so that the stock has averaged. but there are some folks that, obviously, believe that the rally could continue. we saw an enormous role, actually, somebody sold out of a big position in the december 1 calls out to the february calls. that was an outlay of $150 million in premium, making a bet that the stock's strong performance could continue the next couple of months.
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>> you agree? >> it's always volatile post-earnings. >> it's fascinating how nvidia bucked the rest of the sector. not surprising except for the fact that they have take an run along with nvidia. nvidia reports next week as we just wept through. i think the dynamic going into earnings are maybe a lot of momentum that traders don't want to see. i think the fundamentals are telling you people believe they don't have production issues. so, good. >> that's the key. if there is production issues with blackwell, if it's a smaller beat than what we have become accustomed to, what happens to the reaction in the stock? >> that's it. the deceleration and smaller beats at 20 times next year's revenue is what should get people somewhat paused, i think. >> if you think about it, who will be buying that. the people that have missed it, right. i am out of the name for the last $40 of it.
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so pull back on earnings i think you wind up having, you know, softer hands catch it. who knows? >> mike, thanks for that. coming up, using a.i. to make trading decisions. our next guest runs an a.i. platform that synthesizes all the data investors need in one place. he'll explain how the software works and how clients are using it. and the cramer cam. the ceofo live nation. catch the interview top of the hour on "mad money." more "fast money" in two. "options action" sponsored by tasty trade. trade your way.
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welcome back to "fast money." a.i. doing your trading research. our next guest is the ceo of a company that gathers information from s.e.c. filings, earnings calls and research and puts it into one place for investors. for more how it works, bright wave ceo and co-founder, mike. this sounds too good to be true. can you walk us through how it works? how a user use the platform and how you make money from that user. >> sure. absolutely. we bright wave is a research platform to accelerates insight
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for busy financial professionals. the thing that we identified is that historically you have had the comprehensiveness, meticulousness, time of reviewing investment decision adjacent materials. there is not been a tool that can help accelerate that process historically. we have thrown people at the problem. so with language models we see an opportunity for technology and a system that's able to connect the dots across bodies of content that exceed the limits of human cognition. so we've seen risk, demand across financial services from hedge funds to private credit teams, some of the largest institutional asset managers in the world. sometimes it's as simple as answering a quick question. but really we're focusing on workflows. so whether that's earnings call transfer review, trying to understand subtle changes in
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management tone and guidance, looking at comparables, say we want to understand the ev space and rivian and tesla have access to lithium, what are they talking about and how are they different. or even private investors who are looking at diligence, going into deals and trying to understand thousands of pages of text as quickly as possible and as accurately as possible. it's just not been possible to have the technology that takes a meaningful swing at that problem historically. now we have one. >> so i understand the use cases better, if i am an investor and i want to understand how management is talking about and characterizing how inflation is affecting input osts, for instance, can i have it go through s.e.c. filings, earnings transcripts, conference, you know, speeches, et cetera, so you are going across various inputs? >> so, exactly.
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so, think about what a financial professional would do. how are macroeconomic factors impacting this decision. what are the different consideration has would be relevant? what sources do i need to appraise myself of to understand the problem? and then organizing all of those findings into a narrative that supports a decision. we are able to mimmick that workflow using language models. it doesn't remove the role of human judgment. you still -- finance professionals always have access to information that's not digitized. it's more akin to an accountant in the '70s before computational spreadsheets. >> mike, we have the analysts from fitzgerald on earlier on. she mentioned that data that they found has been out since february. my question to you is, does your company enhance wall street analyst ors replace them?
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>> i think it's squarely in the enhances bucket. it's just the realty that as i mentioned, finance professionals, it's a adjustment exercise. understanding how our fund strategy connects to the facts that are disclosed in regulatory filings filings. what is my pms view? my call with management or that conference conversation i had. it is really about automating the way the tedium, so the finance professionals can focus on the places in their work where they create the most value. >> all right. mike, we are out of time. this is fascinating. keep us posted. appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> we had the cfo of hudson lab research on. the question is at what point is the next step having a computer just execute a trade, too? obviously, human judgment still plays a role, but you can see how this can sort of facilitate.
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>> alt. i bought this one. use limits. it's a light market cap. >> retail and home builder adjacent spots. continues to perform. >> guy? >> ea is in the game. >> thanks for watching "fast." see you tomorrow. mambo sauce with jim cramer ar rhtow. hey, i am trying one. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. my job is entertainment. put everything in context. call me at 1-807
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