know a road map for people to kind of determine where to go from here. that was something einhorn addressed. he said he was worried there would be some instability. we wouldn't know the results of the election, and now he can proceed forward. >> leslie picker, leslie pickert stuff. thanks for joining us. ppi and powell tomorrow. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. trouble under the surface. stocks trading near records with the s&p pacing for its best month since february but could there be risks lurking in this rally? we dive into the latest signs of struggle for the markets and from semis to software, big rotation seems to be happening in the tech space over the last week or so. what's behind the move and will it last? plus, we're all over cisco's post-earnings move the chart master says, sell the home builders. and the premier league, lacrosse

is launching a new league for women. we'll talk about to president paul rabil about that and the world of wide sports i'm melissa lee on the desk tonight. carter worth, mike ko. october inflation data showed consumer prices rising in line with expectations. the dow and s&p managed to finish in positive territory while the nasdaq fell 0.25%. consumer discretionary and financials hitting records during the session this even in the face of some not-so-good signals, the dollar index hitting its highest level in more than a year as trump's win sparks expectations for potentially inflationary tariffs. rates ticking higher too the fed has cut rates since september. the ten-year yield has risen by that amount in the same period consumer data also on the upswing. americans now owe a record $1.17 trillion on their credit cards, according to a q3 report by the new york fed. is it possible markets have

gotten too exuberant >> well, through that lens, the answer is, yes, and people would be like, oh my god, guy, you're always looking for what could go wrong and maybe there's some truth to that but we're also trying to point out some of the things that potentially are out there that the market is looking past right now, severe delinquency, 90 days-plus is at 11.1%, which is the highest we've seen since the financial crisis and you said that number in terms of absolute dollars 23% is the average rate that people are paying on those credit cards, so you know, the optimist will say, people have jobs, the unemployment rate is historically low, wages have been trending higher all that is true, but these are numbers you just can't sort of whistle past >> you mentioned the dollar amount i mean, when you think about the move that it's had in about six weeks from 52-week lows to 52-week highs, 6% move doesn't sound like a lot if we're looking at some of the ways things are moving in the stock market the large tech companies that

make up so much of the earnings that we have in the s&p 500, and they have so much exposure overseas, that's the one thing you really want to keep an eye on what are some of the kind of -- what are these companies telling you about this we hear constant currency and this and that, but when you have the rotations that we're having, you have some of the potential issues as it relates to tariffs and the like here with rates going higher, at some point, it's going to weigh on corporate earnings so that's the one thing i want to focus on here. >> look, obviously, the dollar will continue much higher and rates will go higher, at some point, the equity market has to reflect that it is not as of now but it's the u.s. almost uniquely the nikkei hasn't made a high since july stocks in europe, hasn't made a high in about four months and so there's a lot of bifurcation going on both internally to the s&p as well as globally in terms of the equity complex, and something typically gives when you get that kind of bifurcation >> but maybe, maybe, mike, the rise in the dollar and the rise in yields reflect the outlook

for a better economy maybe a strong dollar and let's say a weak yen could help the carry trade, which could help big cap tech stocks which may have been dinged by a stronger dollar i mean, there are cases for this saying, you know, things are great in the economy, things will be great in the economy >> well, that's what the market is pricing in, isn't it? i mean, first of all, with respect to the bifurcation that carter was just talking about, the fact is that a lot of the sort of headline economic data for the united states has been significantly stronger than it has been in other developed counterparts, so i think that obviously is one part of it. now, if the dollar strengthens, that can mute some of the inflationary effects that i think we could probably anticipate when you think about the tax policy that the incoming administration has, which i think we would generally view as inflationary otherwise just speaking to guy's point, with respect to where consumers are, first of all, i think we know that there is some distress there. i think the election itself

reflects that, but the other thing is, we haven't even made it through the holiday spending season so, if it's grim now, it's going to be much grimmer in 60 days. so, not trying to be too negative about this, but the truth is we are at valuations in the s&p that ig norg the big pullback in earnings that we saw during the pandemic plunge, that we really haven't seen since the tech bubble in the '98, '99, 2000 time frame and that's a little worrisome >> everybody is so cautious on this desk. >> and been wrong to be cautious i mean, i want to point that out. i've been cautious for a while, as you know, and the things that we've been talking about have only gotten worse, but the market continues to sort of whistle past it, but as i said, however, i think it's also incumbent upon us to sort of point these things out because if you don't and things go pear-shaped, people say, where were you guys during this entire thing? when you have 11% of all credit cards now, serious delinquency, levels that we haven't seen since 2008, 2009, you have to point that out now, you can sort of explain it

away, saying it's different this time, and maybe it is, and maybe rates are going higher because the economy is doing better, or maybe there's something more nefarious going on >> there are some things out there right now that act pretty well look at the banks. the bkx is trading near an all-time high. the kre, the regional banks act really well too. again, we don't know they acted well when rates were going lower. they act well now when rates are going higher look at industrials. the xli acts really well i could go to the guys, iyt, when you came up with the transport, the dow jones transport theory -- >> when he created it? >> you and charles dow >> i called him charles. >> the dow theory is what you named it but look at the transports they act really well here. there's plenty of groups that act well and i guess the problem is, if you think about the earnings contributors to the s&p 500, it's very heavily weighted to the names that we think could have headwinds with this dollar. >> you're citing laggards which is what happens when all of a sudden money is just moving in and banks have been laggards, they've caught a bid

specific to the financials and banks in general, if you were to look at the performance right after the election in 2016, you had a surge that was much bigger than this. it went for exactly four weeks to mid-december and to this day, that remains the relative peak for banks. to this day. so, there was a whole bunch of money, post-presidential election, moving into a group that ended up being the exact wrong time to move into it i don't suspect banks are a great area here. they're full whether you want to look at a price to book or tangible book for jpmorgan, a guy you speak with often but a morgan stanley, goldman-sachs, a lot of these things have come a long way. they're extended, and i think one is well served to reduce exposure to that area of the market >> i mean, to dan's point, mike, and to carter's point to some extent, rates at some point will catch up with banks. banks are doing well, rates are coming down. on the way up, you would think a name like bank of america, not to pick on bank of america, but with a big held to maturity portfolio, they should be feeling some discomfort with

seeing rates go higher >> bank of america, clearly, is amongst the money-centered banks, they in particular did a poor job and took a lot of duration as you point out on to their held to maturity book so just as a reminder to everybody, the more duration you have, effectively, you know, the value of the assets that you hold in that book go down as interest rates rise and that's what they have been doing, so i realize that this is an accounting thing for some people, but in very real terms, the assets that they hold on their sheets are going down in value. they can always turn them into the fed, but it doesn't really help you when you have negative carry on that trade, so bank of america definitely should be underperforming as long as the long end of the curve starts rising relative to banks that have managed their duration much more effectively, like jpmorgan has. >> guy, what is this show called >> cnbc's "fast money. it's been on there since january 2007 if we were to make it to -- >> it's a long and storied stint. >> yes >> yes >> storied there's something coming, so i'm

preparing myself >> so, in terms of this market right now, if you're to make a call, from now to year-end, for those who really love the notion of fast money, what would that be versus making the call today for the next year? >> so, what would the notion of fast money be into year-end, knowing that we have nvidia reporting, i believe, wednesday of next week, and all the things you just mentioned you know, i look at these banks, specifically, and i say, wait a second, why is warren buffett selling out of bank of america carter just mentioned it mike khouw just mentioned it their held to maturity does not get better with rates going higher and the stock is higher now than it was in the fall when rates were around the levels we're seeing now so, if you're looking to make fast money, you could play with maybe buying puts in banks or if you're long some of these bank stocks, getting out and waiting for a better entry point >> i bet you carter has some data on this when you have an s&p that's up 25%, you know, 10 months through the year. it's like not particularly likely that you're going to have some sort of big selloff between now and then and i'm kind of in guy's camp.

i think the one thing that could derail this market, and when i say derail, maybe come in 3, 4, 5% between now and december, is what is nvidia have to say what does their guidance look like we know we see some of their trades in and around this generative a.i. trade stalling out so i think the last man standing is nvidia but that stock acts pretty well it's really, you know, acting very contrary to the way the rest of the semis are acting >> semis are quite poor, but to your point, momentum is a powerful force all the factors that have ever been tested, momentum and relatively strength come out as the winner if you're enron, you keep losing and losing or walgreens/boots or cvs, and when something's in a good uptrend, that's the case. as to seasonality, we know there's a strong period and there is no incentive for people who get paid as a percentage of assets under management and they have to be fully invested. there's no incentive for major portfolio managers to start reducing the real question is what

happens? january is often very good, you get a follow-through, or everyone says, turn the lights out. let's just walk away from this, there's been such a good party, let's pull back. >> for more on all of this, let's bring in joe, chief economist at smbc. he served as the white house chief economist during trump's first administration joe, are we -- are you going to be going to washington any time soon >> well, i mean, it would be a great honor, but at the same time, i love where i'm at, and i'm here to serve in any way i can, but it's very nice of you asking but we'll see what happens, melissa. >> just curious. just curious, joe. so, after the cpi print, the chances for a fed rate cut went up to 80% versus 56% or so prior to the number. do you see that as a certainty, basically, the next move with the fed? >> i don't see it as a certainty. i'm very surprised the fed says it's data dependent and yet the inflation numbers, we're in line today, we had the numbers to the second decimal

place, but it's not like inflation is back at 2%. we see the price levels up significantly. that was certainly one of the main factors why the public voted trump back in is that even though the rate of inflation has fallen, it's not at 2%, and it's still up cumulatively well over 20% in the last four years so if i'm the fed, and they're really data dependent, melissa, they're supposed to at least skip a meeting and see how things play out. having said that, given where the market is, and the fed's propensity to never disappoint markets, a reason that i fully don't understand, they probably go, but i think the best move would be just to wait and skip a meeting. >> joe, i know you were sitting backstage listening to the conversation we had in terms of where the consumer is and stuff. where do you come down on this entire thing if you watch business television, cnbc, all you hear is the health of the consumer, and i think, at times, people confuse the health of their consumer with their want to spend. thoughts on that >> yeah, it seems to me, guy, that a lot of the data that's

come out shows that -- kind of a flip in who's doing the spending, where you're getting more higher-end consumers doing more of the spending than what took place in the past, which is why you get this bifurcated economy where you hear all these anecdotes of stress at the lower income levels and yet overall consumer spending is doing well. and that's being powered by the upper income earners who also have a lot of asset couples, aco and assets, home prices have risen dramatically and that's fueling spending which is why you get this chotomy >> joe, larry summers tweeted this out this morning. i think what i'm kind of taking away from it, he's saying that the fed bashing, like, if you look at the trump kind of trade here at this point, so the idea that he might bully the fed, the idea that he's going to put heavy tariffs in, the idea that he's going to push through tax cuts, deficit spending, goes on and on, that's really

inflationary, i think summers is basically saying, that's consensus, right so, i'm just curious, if that's consensus, and i'm curious if you think that's consensus what is likely to happen if everyone thinks that way >> i didn't see larry's tweet, but look, break-even inflation has gone up from about 2% to around 2.40% that's essentially where it's been the last four years rates have increased but they're not particularly high, at least on the long end. trump 1.0 was not inflationary and my best guess is that trump 2.0 won't be inflationary because if you get the proper supply response and you get the capital deepening and more productivity growth, then you'll get noninflationary growth the problem i have with the fed is i've always long argued that the fed really too mechanistically looks at inflation as being driven by workers, how many workers are employed i don't believe in this phillips curve concept. i don't believe that high wages

cause inflation. inflation is a monetary and credit phenomenon and i think the fed should take a different approach to policymaking my concern is that it won't, and over time, as it becomes more obvious that growth isn't that great, because a lot of the strength we have had in this economy has been government-spending related, the fed might be too slow in cutting rates, fearful that a trump economic package would be inflationary when in reality it won't be >> joe, thank you. always great to see you. >> thank you same here. thank you. so, mike, what does that mean in terms of what the market is reflecting? >> well, if long-term rates are baking in what joe was just talking about, and sort of thinking thoughtfully about the impact of reduced government spending and forecasting that we're going to get significantly reduced government spending and that that's going to be deflationary as an incremental impact, then that's largely pricing in growth, and that would be a positive. as far as the bifurcation between the consumers, we've definitely seen that too, right? if you take a look at the dollar

generals of the world, they obviously have been hammered because they serve the lowest end of consumer, and they're the ones that have really been feeling the pinch as a result of the inflation that we've seen over the past few years. so, if you can bring down longer term rates somewhat on reduced inflation expectations because of reduced fiscal spending, then you could kind of get a goldilocks situation, but i think it's pretty premature to suggest that's going to happen at this point. that's just my two cents >> let's go to another trump trade. that would be crypto the post-election crypto rally taking a breather today. bitcoin, ether, solana, xrp all lower today. cnbc follows the crypto space. tanae, what's behind the selloff? >> i think you're seeing profit taking look at the huge rally we've seen over the past week, so today, you know, bitcoin doing fine it is in the red but it is about flat and of course, doge coin, doing okay as well, but this afternoon, you saw stocks, coinbase and micro strategy,

take a bit of a tumble and then other cryptocurrencies across the market other than bitcoin and doge coin took pretty big fall but i think this is more of a pause than a pullback. you know, it may be that this trump trade is starting to lose some steam, but i think it will pick back up >> all right tanaya, thank you. i'm sure you noticed the breather that we've seen in coinbase today that's a pretty steep fall >> micro strategy was down it's interesting not a huge move in the underlying asset, itcoin, but pretty significant move in some of these equities, which i think is a bit of a cautionary tale. you see how quickly they move lower on a somewhat benign move in bitcoin that, to me, is concerning with that said, to me, the existential risk here, if this is a federal reserve, that's going to be more hawkish than people believe they will be, that's where crypto could run into a little bit of trouble, mel. >> i think the main thing to point out, and it was not argued

for or believed that bitcoin is correlated to the s&p 500. it had its low on august 5th it's up from $50,000 to $90,000. it is breaking out as so many stocks are in software there was a thought that it has two things it is a store value and that it is a defensive asset similar to gold that part is not true. whether it's a store of value, whether it's most correlated with the equity market, it has animal spirits, it's a reat chart, it has broken out, i think one is right to hedge here or trim. but it is not gold >> yeah, i would just say, it's an outlier if it's that correlated to the s&p and the nasdaq, they've stalled out here and we're seeing a whole host of other groups that are catching a bid right now but to me, it's got the market cap, that and ether, of amazon. you know what i mean again, i think we're spending a lot of time on bitcoin i don't think a lot of different people own it. there's a lot of whales that own half of it or so to me, i think it's a very narrow trade >> don't just say whales say the name his name is brian kelly. he's not a whale

>> he's a baller >> damn straight he wrote the book on it. >> president-elect donald trump continuing to shape his administration megan cassella is in d.c. with the very latest appointments. >> reporter: melissa, that's right. big developments this afternoon on the cabinet front for the next trump administration. starting with florida congressman matt gaetz tapped to be attorney general. this would install a trump loyalist atop the justice department but it's a pick that has raised eyebrows across washington given that gaetz spend years under criminal investigation. the justice department informed gaetz they would not be filing charges but he does remain under investigation by the house ethics committee and was subpoenaed for that in september. on the business front, though, gaetz is very much an economic populist, especially when it comes to antitrust he's been supportive of lina khan's work at the ftc, including the ban on noncompetes. he's also talked about standing up for the working class and not standing up for big business

now, gaetz's pick means that three of the so-called big four slots have been filled with marco rubio tapped for secretary of state and pete hegseth picked for defense secretary. all three of those will require senate confirmation but it does leave the treasury slot as the last of the four biggest positions left to be filled, so much more to come on this but a lot to dig into so far on this cabinet front as the president-elect prepares to move to washington early next year. melissa? >> megan cassella, thank you we are watching the afterhours session shares on the move numbers from the quarter next. and a few fast movers catching our attention today, including a fresh record high for bitcoin. our traders are handling all the moves when "fast money" returns. back itw n o.

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♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money," we've got an earnings alert on cisco, the legacy tech company beating on the top and bottom lines the conference call kicked off at 4:30 eastern time kate rooney has the very -- you know, kate rooney has the latest but we can't connect with her. we'll talk about it ourselves. we say legacy tech but all the enthusiasm is surrounding a.i. and its play there >> which is not getting in

the -- it's interesting. dan and i had a conversation earlier today and i thought there was a really good chance cisco would come out, say something was good enough to get it to trade back to levels we saw, you know, a year, year and a half or so ago that's clearly not happening now. but again, it's not all that exciting i mean, people say, look at the multiple yeah, it's cheap, but you have single-digit earnings growth, single-digit eps growth, it's not that compelling other than the fact that this is a stock that just says anything incrementally good and it should be higher than it is now >> k. ro is back >> hey, mel. you set it up well, guy. revenue and profit at cisco did fall, it's been spending big on a.i. but it did beat expectations at least for the quarter. the networking equipment company raised its revenue forecast. street's taking that as a sign of demand for some of those a.i. products product orders in fiscal q1 up 20% from a year ago and excluding the acquisition of splunk, orders were up

chuck robbins on the call saying the splunk integration is "progressing in line with our expectations." he says arr is ahead of expectations in terms of profitability. at this point, gross margins topping 65%. the company was hit by a $665 million restructuring charge back in august. cisco did say it was cutting 7% of staff and now needs to pay severance, among other charges stock has been flat. it's been bouncing around a little bit after earnings but it's up 17% year to date catch this interview, though chuck robbins coming up in the next hour on "mad money" with jim cramer, guys >> kate, thank you what does the chart look like to you? >> just in terms of history of this, of course, we know it was the most valuable company in the world and ironically, think about it, at its peak in 2000, it was trading around $82, earned 50 cents a share. now it's trading at $59, earns $3 a share it's the irony of, when there's a great growth projection ahead, you put a dream multiple on it the worst thing you can do is

actually start to put up numbers that are more normalized because then the multiple collapses and biotech is the greatest example. when you have no profits at all, they assign any multiple they want the great lyric, the child is grown, the dream is gone >> wow >> who's that, guy >> i don't know, but that's making me -- that's existential. i'm not a -- ask dan about my pink floyd >> it's not on your very extensive list >> david gilmore just did five nights at msg. >> six nights too many there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> a software upgrade. investors rotating out of semis and into the software space this month, what the charts are telling us about that trend. plus the premier lacrosse league looking to expand its reach. the new teams and players making a huge splash in the sporting world. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks muted after this morning's cpi data, october inflation coming in in line with

expectations the dow up 50 points, the s&p virtually flat and the nasdaq in the red, losing about 0.25%. shares of spotify jumping more than 11% after its profit guidance that stock up nearly 150% this year shares of amgen trying to recover after a 7% drop yesterday. the company responding to an analyst note that raised concerns about bone density loss due to its top weight loss drug contender. in a statement, amgen saying the phase 1 study results do not suggest any bone safety concern or change our conviction in the promise of maritide. eli lilly out with more detailed results from its three-year weight loss drug study patients remain diabetes-free over 176 weeks and some retail names showing strength, tjx and walmart hitting fresh record highs in today's session. meantime, some headlines from cnbc's delivering alpha investor summit cnbc's leslie picker has all the details. >> hey, melissa. yes, sat down with green ligh

capital's david einhorn who said he was surprised the election outcome was so decisive as he was expecting it to be a little closer with less political stability but as a result of the election, he's increased his bets on inflation because he thinks the policies of the next trump administration will reignite those price levels not to the levels that we saw in the pandemic era but closer to about 3.5 to 4.5%. he also disclosed a new long he said he's been building in cnh industrials, an agricultural machinery company. you can see those shares are up 7% in afterhours trading >> you had a period where you had a bit of a boom in agriculture equipment purchases and now that's turned into a cyclical bust. ag prices are lower than they were and so farmers are cutting back a little bit on a global basis. and these things come and go and

the equipment eventually ages and needs to be replaced this year, the ag equipment universe is probably 20% below its average demand over a cycle, and some time three or four years from now, it will probably be above, and that's the nature of how these businesses work >> einhorn said he's built a medium-size position in ynh and is one of three new longs in addition to peloton and an unknown pick, although i tried, melissa, to get that last one out of him i tried, but he declined to give it to us >> i'm sure you did your best, leslie i got a question on cnh. it's interesting that he's going long on that you would think that tariffs could actually impact that trade or the notion that interest rates will actually remain higher despite what the fed is doing. that will also impact that trade, the ability to finance these purchases. >> yeah, and he mentioned that this is a company that missed earnings he said he does expect some near-term headwinds for cnh.

i also asked on that macro front whether he thinks that inflation, if we get the inflation that he is expecting, whether that would be good for the agricultural industry, and that's something that he's also baked into his thesis here he said, no, it's really more of an idiosyncratic play, buying at a multiple he feels comfortable with, buying on that weakness, building a position and getting an overall kind of cyclical benefit at some point in the future >> all right leslie, thank you. leslie picker from cnbc's delivering alpha conference, happening in manhattan today so, going back to fundamentals, he sees an opportunity, despite the macro, despite what trump policies might be still in it. >> yeah, so, cnh, you'll see, you talk about boom/bust go back to 2018. it's a stock that was rallying up to 15 over the next two and a half, three years, traded down to $5 big rally.

we're in the midst of that same type of move now depressed commodity prices, reduced farm incomes impacting demand dealers having lower inventories, all those things, but you know, that's when you buy these stocks so, we never talk about this reading a little bit, i just was able to do over the last 45 seconds, it makes sense that he's a building position at these levels >> we've got a news alert here, new york governor kathy hochul reportedly planning to relaunch congestion pricing with a $9 base toll. $9 40% less than the original $15 that was initially proposed. hochul indefinitely suspended the program shortly before it was supposed to go into effect in june. hochul trying to put the plan into effect before president-elect trump takes office he has vowed to kill congestion pricing but may have a harder time rolling it back if it's already in place coming up, strength in software the igv hitting a new record high today is it all systems go for the group? the chart master will weigh in the women's lacrosse league is finally here.

paul rabil is in the "fast money" house we'll discuss the launch o.f the new league the growth of women's sports is

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welcome back to "fast money. it's been a tale of two tech

trades since the election with software stocks rallying as investors seem to move out of semis. the igv setting a new all-time high today but will the momentum continue the chart master, carter worth, says it is time to book it carter, what are you looking at? >> we put out a note towards the end of the day, just saying that the move in the igv, which is an etf that captures an expanded technology software complex, is just full. too far, too fast, almost straight up and to the left, if you will you can't do that. it has to go to the right every day. and so, let's look at three simple charts and get right to it the first, of course, is a comparative chart. it's depicting one etf to the other. it's semis, smh, lagging, of course, and then igv taking off. some correlation there that now you have this sort of blowout in terms of performance on the past three months this is a five-year chart and we're about as high above the

550-day moving average it smooths out intermediate highs and lows and then final chart, and this is also important. it's a ratio chart this is depicting the current igv relative performance to the smh over the past five years every single time, it has rallied to this down trend line, it's hit its head so at a minimum, if i were long igv and names like it, and there have been big moves in software, i would trim or reduce or put on a pair trade >> i don't think it's a high-quality trade right now i think it's a lot of traders reaching for stuff that had underperformed if all the focus on generative a.i. was hyperscalers and semis, at this point, you think it's all systems go, you go after some of the stuff that's underperformed i'm not saying that's a way to do it. look at salesforce it's parabolic it looks like igv. it's the largest holding there microsoft, which is the third largest holding, is stalled. it's massively underperforming the market and that's one of the names that was one of the early

beneficiaries of the generative a.i. trade, so to me, i think this is low quality. i think you really got to pay attention to nvidia and some of the big customers next week because i think the whole trade could take a little bit of a stall. >> to dan's point, mike, once upon a time, not too long ago, actually, there was a thinking that all the spend is going to a.i. and a.i. adjacent and it's going to be coming out of software budgets can't possibly pay for everything, and software really suffered if part of the a.i. trade is sort of reversing that, it makes sense that igv caught a bid. >> yeah, but i've kind of -- first of all, i do get some of carter's ideas before "fast money" so as it happens, i happen to have acted on the note that he just referred to, and i did actually buy some put spreads in igv today so thank you for that, carter but you know, one of the things i was looking at, as it weakened throughout the day, i'm not a technical analyst, but back in the day when i was trading commodities, the most bearish signal we could see was when you see something open at a fresh

high and then end up closing lower on the day that kind of a reversal was basically the most bearish thing we could look at we didn't quite get that, but when i initiated that bearish position today, that's what i was looking at, because it looked like we might be heading that way and i have a feeling we're going to start seeing that in this a couple spaces pretty soon >> this is some old-school stuff. maybe they could put us in a three box, this is some "options action." guy was the major fill-in on that program >> just like old times all right, coming up, the premier lacrosse league announcing a brand-new women's league that launches next year we sit down with founder paul rabil for an inside look at how it is poised to take advantage of the parabolic growth in women's sports plus time to sell the home builders what the chart masteiseeg t thnals and why this group could be on a shaky foundation

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♪ i can open, maybe lock it ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪ welcome back to "fast money. the pll today announcing here at the nasdaq the launch of the new women's lacrosse league. here they are, ringing the closing bell this afternoon. the new league will begin play next year as the lacrosse world gears up for the sport coming to the olympics in 2028 for more on how the wll can take

advantage of the surge in interest in women's sports, let's bring in pll founder paul rabil. great to see you as always >> great to see you. >> no surprise, i guess, that you go into women's sports seeing the huge -- the explosive growth in interest in the wnba was that part of it? this is probably in the works long before. >> yeah, i think there are cultural shifts that we're seeing related to gender equality in sports at the professional level all the way down to youth participation and then you can look at title ix, for example, in the ncaa, so if we address the last ten years, there are 59% more universities that are playing women's lacrosse and girls lacrosse participation in america over the last ten years is up 43% it's up and to the right, and that has a lot to do with maybe cultural trends and shifts, more young girls are playing sports, which is exciting. the commercial side is we're seeing investment from networks and partners that are getting into the wnba or the nwsl and for us, this has always been an investment as we've invested in

girls lacrosse, invested in women's media company, and we've run exhibitions for the pros, so it's a matter of really when, not if, and we launched the wll today, which is historic for us. it's akin to the nba launching the wnba in '96 or the ufc launching their women's arm with ronda rousey in 2013 >> in terms of the commercial interest, do you see that the interest is there as much as there is for wnba? i assume that's helping. do we know that the viewers will come as they did for wnba? >> well, it took a long time for the wnba, and there are a lot of factors in sports. we look at the caitlin clark effect super stars that come in and there's this notion that leagues can build superstars i always contend that the superstars have to kick everyone's butt on the court or on the field first, and if they do that consistently, ultimately, what the networks get is viewership, because people want to see caitlin clark score 35 points a game, and attendance so, you can only do so much from a personality standpoint,

whether it's drive or survive and f1 and their impact on netflix, but having the superstars are important and the only way to find that is to build it >> paul, you have a great relationship with abc, espn, all your games for the pll are on there. you obviously had to deal with nbc prior to that. are you starting to think about netflix, amazon? they're going into live sports tomorrow night, we have this tyson-paul event or friday night, and amazon's doing nfl. they have al michaels calling the games. 85 million subs here in the u.s. you got to think every kid who plays lacrosse has a netflix account. >> you have big tech and their approach to live sports or media, which started in entertainment, now in sports, and you have the blue blood networks, whether it's comcast or disney or warner discovery, and each of them has a different strategy, so as we take our next rights deal out to market, we think -- we think that disney is a perfect fit for us because of their surround sound coverage of what they do for live sports altogether, like this morning we were on "first take" and "get up" making the wll announcement.

and then streaming from multiple price points, depending on what happens with the venue deal. that's an example of how they're counterpunching big tech amazon is wrap-around commerce apple is looking at international properties as they approach or kind of like analyze soccer and then baseball so, it's about, like, understanding the okrs of these respective sports media brands that sit inside of these tech houses or these larger media conglomerates and presenting your case. >> everybody knows in our world, warren buffett, but his copilot for decades was charlie munger you have a copilot in the form of your brother, michael, who's here you guys talk about a lot of things talk about some of the conversations you have, some of the maybe conflicts you have and some of the things you came to sort of conclusions about together in terms of building this business. >> yeah. well, it's a great note on the two of them, who often talked about investing in businesses that have concentrated motes, and what you get in sports is scarcity as long as your sports property has the best in class players,

which not all sports properties do that's been the challenge of mls in america over the last several decades is the most watched league in america in soccer is the english premier league so, the mote is what i think about when i hear warren buffett and his look on to sports. mike is the operational engine he manages our finances and the yin and yang for us is investing in marketing, investing in growth, and keeping a very soundly fundamentalized business, so that we can, by the way, launch the wll. we wouldn't have been able to do this if we didn't have our fundamentals right, the operational structure, as well as the economies of scale, and so i kind of view it as the modern sports owner that, you know, take ryan smith in utah, owns the rights to the venue, has basketball, now hockey, will continue to invest, he's using economies of scale and shared resources. that's what we're going to do to continue to uplift the wll >> first game is

>> february. >> february. we'll look for it. thank you. paul rabil coming up, a home builder divided. could the roof be in on the trade? more "fast money" in two

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welcome back to "fast money. home builders have found themselves under pressure as mortgage rates remain elevated after a strong start to the year, the itb home construction etf is down 9% from its 52-week high and one of our traders says it is time to hit sell on the group. let's get to the chart master. why, carter, why >> we know before we get to the charts, this has been an outstanding area of the market and an outstanding area within the consumer discretionary sector and a two-year, five-year and ten-year basis, but the current behavior is poor bearish price volume correlation and poor relative strength the table here tells the tale. those are columns that you can see, two-year, five-year, ten-year, and the itb, not only blowing out the sector of which it's a part, but blowing out the market so, let's look at those same data points in pictorial form, three charts this is the two-year comparative chart and you can see the itb is effectively doubled the performance of the consumer discretionary sector and the market here's a five-year, and we can

go to the ten-year and so, one could say, what's not to like? these are great winners. they have been, but now, let's talk about the here and now. so, we have the set-up of outperformance that's quite excessive, i would argue, and then current performance that is starting to stall. this is a ratio chart. itb relative to spy. it gives you a relative performance like it is rolled over and now look at itb compared to its sector, xly, again, each has the look and feel of a bullish to bearish reversal i would say this is worrisome behavior if you're long this area of the market or this area of consumer discretion i would take measures. >> dan had mentioned this is like an "options action" reunion here, so in "options action" style, i shall ask mike, what's the trade? >> the home builders and rates are generally anti-correlated and it's hard to see how the longer end of the rate curve's going to come in given the

drivers we talked about earlier. as i take a look at this, one of the things i noticed was that like many other spaces, options premiums were very elevated going into the election. a lot of those premiums have declined significantly but if you take a look at something like xhb, what i noticed was that the money options declined much more than the out of the money downside puts did so that favors buying some at the money puts and selling that out of the money stuff because you're getting a decent premium i was looking out to january, a $13-wide put spread, that would cost about $3 when i was looking at that. typically, when elook at these debit spreads, we're looking for a payoff of at least three to one and actually getting that here so, i think this is a pretty good relationship in ermz termsf whether you hold these stocks and want to hedge them or if you're inlined to take a bearish bit, this is a way to do so. >> dan, what do you think of mike's trade >> i like carter's set-up on the

technicals mike laid out the trade. i think you can leg into puts right now. vols come in dramatically. i think it makes sense here. adca, me, , final lli an tres

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>> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> i gb, the january 10292 paying almost 5-1. >> carter. the prophets, he worried. >> alley bye-bye. round-trip that from when it broke out a couple months ago.

i use that to the downside if you want to play that on the long side. >> one of the greatest cross players everywhere. you've got to admire the guy. also got to admire the fact att'tuinth is rng higher. >> thanks for watching fast money. you back here at 5:00. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. don't make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. when we look back on this market, this year, this moment, there's two