it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5. investors caught off guard reassessing risk exposure and their own outlook for the fed's final rate decision of the year. powell not the only one moving markets the trump trade alive and well

in a very different way as key cabinet nominations send specific baskets of certain stocks sinking. plus, warren buffett gets a taste of pizza in the latest portfolio pick. and later on, a big week ahead for retail and the names that should be on your holiday shopping list. it's friday, november 15th, 2024 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc ♪ this labor market conditions in rough balance and anchored, i expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2% objective, albeit, on a bumpy path the strength we're currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. good morning thanks for being with us

i'm dominic chu in for frank holland on this friday that is the fed chair of not being in a hurry to lower interest rates casting doubts on the fed's intention for the rate decision in december and possibly beyond. you can see swift market reaction watching the dow in late trading yesterday as you see in the time lapse taking a sharp move lower toward the end of the day the dow finished down .50% of 1% it was similar sharp moves for the cme fed watch cool where traders were putting the odds of the 25 basis point or quarter percentage point cut in december at more than 82% then this morning, it's sitting just around 62% to 63% traders are scaling back expectations for an interest rate cut in the month of december now the follow through bleeding through into u.s. stock futures this morning and what you are

seeing is market weakness. right now, you see the dow, s&p and nasdaq are all moving to the down side. s&p down 35. the nasdaq down 178. the tech heavy trade is certainly feeling more of that pain as well checking in on the bond market over the past 24 hours and the ten-year yield at the 3:00 p.m. mark moving around and just to the down side and moving through there and 4.43% is where we currently stand. a little bit of stability there. the similar move in the dollar index as well. if you look at that, the dollar index is off .10% of 1%. a bit of that move around 3:00 p.m. higher around some of the remarks. the dollar index at play as well let's check bitcoin prices pause we have been flirting with the record prices. bitcoin prices still below 90,000 at this point up about 1% in bitcoin prices is

a key focus. if there is one person outside of powell that can move markets, it's got to be president-elect donald trump he named robert f. kennedy jr. to be head of the health and human services secretary you can see sharp reaction in moderna and pfizer moderna taking it especially hard on that particular chart in the extended trade this morning, what we are seeing for the vaccine makers overall are moves lower. the pick for rfk jr as the hhs secretary. reuters is reporting that president-elect is aiming to scrap the $7,500 ev tax credit one elon musk says will hurt tesla, but hurt more on the relative basis shares of rivian closing down 14%.

you see in the last 24 hours and so far today, we are seeing a bit of a mixed picture tesla still down nio on the chinese side up .50%. rivian as well and li auto moving down. the follow through on the ev trade is happening now europe is getting a chance to respond to powell's comments we have silvia amaro with more from the continent >> good morning, dom we see volatility in the equity space this morning with investors, as you rightly pointed out, trying to digest comments from jay powell taking in the fact we are now having different expectations in terms of the potential rate cut in december additionally, european investors also digesting economic data out of the european continent. when you think about the bourses thus far, we are mostly in the green at this stage.

the ftse 100 is up .2% despite the gdp figures which came in below expectations we saw the uk economy growing 0.1% in the third quarter. let me take you to the secretary sector breakdown when you think about the best performing sectors, we have travel and leisure at the top. oil and gas up as well up .8% despite lower oil prices today let me briefly take you to the worst performing sectors that is where we see the interesting moves at this stage. health care is down 2% at this stage. here is very much a continuation of what you highlighted there, dom, in terms of the announcements from the president-elect. that had an impact in healthcare stateside and that is having an impact on the european healthcare names >> silvia amaro, thank you very much for that. we will stick overseas and new

signs that beijing's stimulus efforts may finally be paying off. eunice yoon joins us now >> reporter: retail sales came in at 4.81% from a year ago from estimate of 3.8% part of that is the week long holiday and the other factor is the cash for clunkers program. that helped sales on singles day. the rest of the data weighed down sentiment the fai, fixed asset investment and factory output missed. property investment bank 10.3% from a year ago. the biggest decline from a year ago. new home sale prices fell the most since 2015. new home sales mirrored declines

at minus 20.9% from a year ago versus 22.7% in september. the government said this improvement, they said, active improvement is because of the policies, but a lot of economists, dom, say consumer spending really can't recover more fully or sustainably unless confidence is restored in the property sector. so, a lot of folks here think there's supposed to be more stimulus in fact, goldman sachs today said they expect china to cut policy rates and expand the fiscal deficit meaningfully, they said, in 2025 >> all right a lot of experts say that real estate sector is the epicenter of china's woes. eunice yoon, thank you very much for more, let's bring in nicholas at columbia thread

needle eunice brings up something that is china dealing with its own issues and u.s. is firing on all cylinders post election. what is it you are seeing? >> thank you good morning, dom. good to be on with you certainly, i think, with the u.s., whenever you look at the market, we have to go back to the basic fundamentals and the expectation is we will see a strong economy next year and earnings are going to be up. could be high single digits or low double digits depending on what happens with the tax rates. in that environment, what you are seeing is the market domestically is pricing in that strong economic performance that is on the way to come and overseas, there will be issues associated with trade and tariff, et cetera.

>> if you head up a research team and you are optimistic next year and the corporate fundamentals for companies, does that mean you feel the incoming trump administration is ultimately good, medium to long-term for markets? >> that depends. there will be places where policy will pressure equities and will pressure sentiment moving forward there are other places like the banks who had a if phenomenal r post-election and lower tax rates. the answer is it depends you have to get under the hood to see the moving pieces. >> this is the trump trade it is hard to generalize this is a narrative where certain sectors, like you said, banks, oil and gas tend to maybe do a little bit better domestics and we saw overnight

vaccine makers and healthcare has been a laggard how exactly do you look where the best opportunities are in that kind of environment is it that straight forward or do you have to look under the hood for those sectors >> you have to look under the hood for the individual companies. you have to see where the earnings are up directionally and secondly, where will earnings be better than people are expecting? with the banks, we know the lower tax rate is being discussed from 21% down from the high teens that's potentially 5% or 6% of earnings growth. that is a group trading well below market multiple when you talk about 11 or 12 times versus the market overall that's a place where earnings are going to be up and the mumt many is relatively attractive. i think you can see good performance. there are places clearly pricing in perhaps more good to come than likely to be realized

>> nicholas, thank you very much have a nice weekend. >> thank you, dom. >> for more on what's driving the trading day ahead, head to cnbc cnbc.com/pro for insights and alysis there. the deadline for 13f filings and the latest for the biggest institutions, we have silvana henao here with those details on those big regulatory filings good morning, silvia >> good morning, dom we are kicking it off with david tepper says it bought shares of pdd holding and jd.com it is down 18% this month. appaloosa doubling its stake in lyft the stock is up nearly 40% this month. and warren buffett's

berkshire hathaway disclosing a stake in domino's pizza buying 1.3 million shares and pool corporation. all this while slashing in ulta and capital one and charter communications dom. >> silvana henao with the roundup. thank you very much. a lot more here to come on "worldwide exchange," including the indirect a.i. plays our next guest says are a buy right now first, laying out the retail headwinds in one sector full of haves and have-nots. that story coming up. more coming up on the rfk jr appointment. later on, fight night and the match netflix and betting markets have been waiting for. our contessa brewer is here with whinsts y veorshould be paying attention to jake paul and mike tyson.

a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break.

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welcome back to the consumer and beyond in what is said to be a busy day and week ahead with the october sales out before opening bell this morning economists are expecting sales to cool from a month ago rising .3% of 1% next week, nearly ten retailers are reporting quarterly results

as you see there we're talking target and walmart and lowe's ahead of others ahead of that, two can't miss cnbc interviews with the ceos of tapestry and home depot on at 8:00 a.m. eastern time and 10:00 a.m. eastern time. joining me now is scott mushkin. scott, this is a big time of year for retailers and earnings. what is the outlook for retailers in america >> i think it depends on each retailer looking to the holiday, everyone has skipped forward a little bit. it is okay when americans are working, they are spending we are still not back to where we were pre-pandemic with mix of goods and services as we look into the holiday, we

through think it will be okay, but tilt toward services. if you go back and the earnings coming up, it's a little bit of a have and have-nots if you look at the retail landscape, you have the three -- the three huge companies amazon, walmart, costco taking an enormous amount of share. if you look at goods, they're now deflating. if you are not taking share, it is hard to comp. we think there could be a surprise out of walmart that their comps could be 4% or more than that. so, again, we would focus on the three big ones amazon, walmart and costco >> how exactly then, scott, are the outlooks are each of those companies taking position or market share and well positioned? are they all in your mind buys right now? do you feel comfortable you can get in each of the names at

those levels given the stock market is recovering at highs? >> that is a good question we have a hold on costco walmart is probably the most interesting. one of the reasons is that multiples come up quite a bit. if you look at the company and their margins, they were pressed down quite a bit from 2013 to 2020 so, there's room for that company to expand their margins and even though it's expensive compared to -- compared to where it's been the last few years, we still have it as our top pick for the last two and a half to three years. we continue to really like walmart. going to amazon, it is one of the top picks for 2024 we still ike the company and i has room to go aws has been seeing very strong growth and higher margins.

>> all right and one last point here. it's very, very positive that the market narrative overall and has been certainly since the election, do you feel as though there are any warning signs or cautionary factors we have to look at with regard to consumer and retail spending in the coming months? >> i do. we go to the hard line names like lowe's and home depot the ceo is going to be on later. best buy again, we're tracking goods as a percentage of consumption still elevated interest rates are actually climbing so, the market's kind of baked in a big bounce in sales for the home improvement and for electronics. a lot of those categories are also deflationary. it is different from the marketplace. i think the market really has been looking through and a bounce in sales and the hard line retailers >> all right

scott mushkin with the retail state of play at r5. thank you. >> thanks, dom. ahead on "worldwide exchange," elon musk may be leading trump's new don't of government efficiency, doge, but not all of his bets have paid off. we'll explain after this break

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welcome back time for the big money movers. applied materials fourth quarter

results beat forecast. citing weaker demand and trends in china shares down 8% pre-market. palantir shares moving higher as they move from the nasdaq to the exchange it moves to be added to the nasdaq 100 index after the s&p 500 in september that means the funds would have to buy pan palantir shares and saves of lenovo second quarter revenue jumps as the global industry shows signs of recovery lenovo shares in foreign trading

down 2%. turning to elon musk and the big week ahead in the growing d.c. footprint the announcement of donald trump to the government of efficiency office capping off many months and millions to support the re-election bid, but not all of musk's gambles have paid off emily wilkins joins us now with more on that story good morning, emily. >> reporter: good morning, dom elon musk has emerged as a winner in the 2024 election. he has joined trump's inner circle his scorecard down ballot in races is mixed we have been tracking the races of the 18 musk's america pac donated to four of them have not been called by nbc. of the 14 remaining that have been called, five of the candidates backed by musk's pac did not win their re-election. of course, these were all swing races and difficult, but you did

see democrats emerge there musk gave $118 million of his own money to the america pac and $19 million from the pac went to congressional races. a lot of that focused on get out the door voting and door knocking a lot used to help republicans in the 2026 midterms republicans on capitol hill are ing musk musk joined trump this week for the house republicans first post-election meeting. one congress member praised musk after the meeting and said trump did, too >> he said a lot about elon musk all amazing. elon's a great american. he's really been at the forefront of the space race and with his leadership and cutting waste in the government, just as he has taken us to the stars, he has the ability to cut and turbo

charge this economy. >> reporter: musk to benefit from the trifecta from lower taxes to government contracts and labor laws while there is an elimination of the e v credits, ending of those credits would hurt musk and his petitors more. it will be interesting to see if their policy proposals wind up going musk's way on a number of things. >> emily, the musk role is formal and informal-ish at the same time. it is not a direct cabinet secretary position, but it will have a lot of influence how d.c. will operate is there a sense from folks inside the beltway about just what kind of changes could happen if there is a massive push to scale back the

government overall >> reporter: you know, dom, it's a great question because republicans will always come in and some democrats will come in and say, look, we need to reduce federal spending and reduce the deficit and be mindful of debt the issue is kay, what about cutting this some district or factory or company it creates jobs and they are raising their hand and saying my district really needs that it creates jobs and stimulates the economy. it is going to be very interesting how they go ahead and approach this type of stuff. the government spending is wrapped up in the mandatory programs that members are unwilling to touch >> emily wilkins, thank you. coming up, big bets on

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we'll let him go to it >> so that was president-elect donald trump on election night touting robert f. kennedy jr. playing a key role in the administration's health initiatives. trump making it official welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. coming up, the latest stocks getting hit on the back of that particular move. let's kickoff this half hour with the check of the u.s. equity futures which are lower, by the way, but modestly so. dow implied lower 90 points. s&p down 35. nasdaq down by 172 it's red, but we're still hovering near record highs remember, global investors are digesting comments made by jay powell yesterday suggesting the

central bank may scale back its rate cutting campaign. >> with labor markets conditions in rough balance and expectations well anchored, i expect to come down to the 2% objective, albeit on a bumpy path we are not in a hurry to lower rates. this gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. >> we have seen sharp moves for the cut at the next meeting on the back of the comments from powell the cme fed watch tool put the odds of the quarter rate cut in december at 82%. this morning after the comments, the futures are implying a 62% to 62% chance of a quarter point cut at next month's meeting. similar for the equities dow moving lower ahead or around the time of powell's speech.

you see around the 3:00 p.m. level. the dip intraday as the comments came to light. checking on the bond markets were the ten-year note yield right around the 3:00 p.m. level, we did see them tick higher 4.43%. it has been stable relatively speaking taking a look at the price of coffee which is up 10% this week that's its best week since early april. coffee at its highest level since september of 2011. the cup of joe, set your expectations, higher in the months to come. and president-elect trump picking rfk jr as the secretary of health and human services as much, many of the vaccine makers, big pharma and bio-pharma companies ended the

day lower. pfizer and moderna and gsk and astrazeneca and novavax. by the way, that same thing is carrying through to this morning. you are seeing the extended hours trade where there are still losses, more modest than yesterday, but a bit of a follow through. let's bring in javers on the president-elect's choice for hhs and what exactly can you tell us about whether or not we could see a path forward that is smooth for his irmation and the policies that rfk jr could have in his initial hypothetical months on the job? >> reporter: boy, john, dom, that is a big question the confirmation hearing is a big one if we have one you mentioned the vaccine stocks it is more than the vaccine stocks impacted here because this is a huge agency. hhs has a budget of $1.6 trillion they oversee the national

institute of health and cdc and the fda, the food and drug administration, which has approvals over food products and all chemicals and a whole range of things in the food industry that rfk jr talked about in the past that could be impacted. you look at con-agra that moved on the news as well yesterday. this is a sweeping organization and this is something at the head of it, potentially now, who really disagrees with a lot of what the organizations have been doing for decades. this is a very different look at hhs than we've seen before nonetheless, donald trump last night was full of praise for bobby kennedy jr he was speaking at a policy institute dinner last night here in palm beach. here's what he had to say. >> i looked at the news reports. people like you, bobby don't get too popular, bobby

you know you reached about the level -- no, we want you to come up with things and ideas and what you've been talking about for a long time and i think you will do some unbelievable things >> reporter: so the big question here, dom, as you mentioned, will there be a confirmation battle around rfk jr the expectation is it would be tough for them to get the votes in the senate, but there is a way for the president-elect to do an end-run with the recess appointments this is something to watch, dom, this is such a controversial pick i imagine the income team will not do nominations at all. nominate matt gaetz and rfk jr, they are looking to go around the senate is my guess >> eamon javers, the

conversations i had involving rfk jr and matt gates etz, if ty are confirmed, i don't have a crystal ball, if they were confirmed, how much could they do or what policies could they push forth, if in the end there is a detriment to the industries the american pharmaceutical industry could be decimated if there was too much stuff done to them by hhs secretary and kill an american industry how much power would a secretary have to do with trump in office? do you feel there's a check and balance situation developing between trump and any of his cabinet picks? >> reporter: these are enormously powerful agencies and they have enormous executive authorities on their own just in terms of approving new drugs. the $1.6 trillion budget, that is medicaid and medicare

spending there are ways to tweak medicare and medicaid spending that rfk jr would have enormous influence on if he were hhs secretary. yes, i would think he would have enormous and sweeping influence over these industries. rfk jr isideological he is a skeptic in vaccines across the board in particular he is someone whether wants new science and refreshed look he will not have the same assumptions that people who have one run hhs over our entire lifetime does that devastate the vaccine industry or pharmaceutical industry it is a strong word, but it is going to have an impact and likely a negative impact i'm not sure that is a priority for rfk jr he talks about the health of children in his view that's something that you will not stop and worry about stock

prices when you are trying or on a crusade to save children's health. >> that is something to watch especially with an america first policy and the pharmaceutical sector could be at a disadvantage to other ts of the world. eamon javers, thank you. this is coming as this month's sectornomics is coming on healthcare. as you can see by our leaderboard here with regard to the performance. tech on top. healthcare all the way at the bottom during president-elect trump's first term, healthcare ranked third up 70% between january 20th, 2017, and january 20th, 2021, behind tech and consumer discretionary. there were a lot of questions of a second trump administration could bring. the president-elect's platform is widely favoring business,

yes. many see hands off on taxes. questions remain about how easy it is to implement campaign promises even with a republican house and a republican controlled senate. analysts say a possible push to lower drug prices could be an impediment to growth there is an argument that americans are unfairly paying more for healthcare and drugs than other people in other countries, something president-elect trump does not like there is also the possibility of cuts to medicaid and concerns the new administration will be less than vaccine friendly as we just heard from eamon javers' report during the first trump administration, medical device maker insule, it was up 600% in the span align jumped 515%. moderna, a vaccine maker, up 444% due to the work on the

vaccine which was part of warp speed from trump's administration back then others include they rmo fisher daniher was up 200%. amgen up 63% merck up 32% and fiedser pfize 21%. coming up on the show, new details on a major milestone for the chips act and the biden administration's race to protect that initiative. the latest developments when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break >> announcer: sectornomics is sponsored by sector spdr etfs.

welcome back news alert for you with taiwan semiconductor. the $6 million award to the company official megan cassella has more on the chips act story. megan. >> reporter: dom, good morning this award was announced a few months back, but as of today, it has been finalized the company and government have entered into a binding contract. tsmc hit the milestone and the $6.6 billion can flow. it is likely to receive at least $1 billion of the money before

the end of the year. tsmc is the first of the companies to see the award finalized. it is investing private money along the government money to build three fabs in phoenix, arizona creating 26,000 jobs in construction and manufacturing in the process dom, this finalization is a big step for tsmc individually, but it is a sign to lock the chips act in place lael brainard said they will finalize deals for the next two months to ensure the progress carried forward will continue through the decade that is the key to watch on the front. how many how many awards will they finalize before leaving office since trump won the election,

there have been a lot of questions about whether the trump administration would claw back any of the money. the biden team says now they are finalized in time, that is a binding contract so. the money will flow as long as the companies keep up their deal dom. >> megan cassella, thank you very much. ahead, the one word every investor needs to know today and the stock pick every investor needs to know today as well. plus, the countdown is on to one of the year's most buzzed about sporting events. it's going to happen tonight mike tyson versus jake pal.ul. the stocks that can deliver a knockout to this ttle. yes, you heard me right. we'll be right back.

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the only etf that tracks the dow. (♪♪) we're just hours away from what could be one of the most anticipated and most watched sporting events of the year. mike tyson is going to fight jake paul at a sold out at&t stadium in dallas with the match shown live on netflix. it is not only a spectacle for the service, but a knockout for the betting world as well. contessa brewer has been following the action in and out side of the ring and joins us now. i'm a netflix subscriber and i'm likely going to be tuning in to this >> reporter: you and how many other tens of millions of

people 27-year-old youtube influencers turned boxer jake paul, will take on 57-year-old mike tyson it's free for subscribers. the early card starts at 8:00 p.m. jake paul backs and co- founded a company and levy said this could be the biggest boxing event for betting of all time. one interesting thing to note is the fight takes place at arlington. you can't actually stop and make a wager on the way in. the new york gaming commission won't allow betting on the match because of the fight's non traditional rules. colorado and pennsylvania are among the seven states in all that said nope, not doing it

despite the tyson status, the odds have paul at the favorite odds are trending toward tyson according to espn. draftkings said it has taken in two $500,000 bets on paul to win. betmgm says this is the biggest boxing match every for the sports book in its history. >> contessa, people betting on tyson are like me and remember what iron mike was like 20 or 30 years ago. by the way, some of the videos show him still show him as very, very seasoned and very, very capable of boxing. why are some states not actually allowing betting on the fight? what are the non traditional aspects and why do we have to figure this into the betting landscape? >> reporter: yeah, the sportsbooks had to go in front of the regulators to get approval for this. one difference is the fighters

are using 14-ounce gloves instead of the 10-ounce gloves the rounds two minutes instead of three new york says this is more of an exhibition we don't permit gambling on exhibition matches massachusetts regulators are notoriously tough. they went in and unanimously agreed they will allow gambling on this match. the other thing is this counts as an official match this will go forward the fighter's record although the rules have been slightly changed. >> got ya' con ta test contessa, thank you. for more on the fight and more on sports and business, head to cnbc.com/sport the intersection of sports, business coming up next, the a.i. play and it is up 30% so far

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welcome back quick check of u.s. equity futures are down right now fractionally joining me now is jay hatfield over at infrastructure capital

management or infra cap. jay, thank you for being in studio with us here. i love to get your thoughts on whether or not you think the massive market rally we have seen post election has legs in the strong time of year in the fourth quarter >> thanks, dom we actually are playing a short-term stall in the market just through the end of november the only catalyst we have is with nvidia. you have the comments with the fed chair. the market is vulnerable we have a target which is out of consensus and we upped it in june the critical element is we do have a 7,500 target for next year, but that's dependent on a corporate tax cut. otherwise, we would have a mundane 6,600 target for the s&p. >> what is your favorite part of the market for the coming year >> we love the investment bank i used to be an investment

banker we see when the markets are heating up we actually are carrying 30% above earnings for goldman sachs. we're far more optimistic about a.i. ipos. indirect play. new regulatory environment we have a 750 target on goldman sachs. that's our number one pick and large cap dividend fund. >> jay hatfield. thank you very much. we appreciate it thank you very much for that what we have as we close out the 5:00 a.m. hour, the stock stories. new insight in what the wealthy investors are doing including david tepper buying jd.com. and in china, retail sales are topping expectations up 5%

from a year ago signaling the stimulus efforts may already be working. $82 billion came into the funds over the last week the largest increase since late september. a check on the futures right now. the dow is implied lower by 190 points as you see there. the s&p by 34. the nasdaq 170 keep it here "squawk box" starts right now. have a nice weekend. good morning president-elect trump says he's going to nominate rfk jr as secretary of health and human services that sent the shares of vaccine makers sharply lower domino's pizza shares are jumping after a new filing showing berkshire hathaway took a stake in the company last quarter. tesla shares are pulling back after last week's big jump. we will talk to long-time tesla

bull ron baron and cathie wood about it it's friday, november 15th the ides of november 2024 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everyone welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and this morning on this friday morning, we are looking at some red arrows as we start things off. these are the biggest declines we've seen since the election. dow indicated off 170. s&p off 33 nasdaq off 170 that comes after stocks pulled back yesterday