it has been a bit of a whipsaw since the election. that does it for us today. we hope you have a great weekend. we will be right back here tomorrow. good friday morning welcome to squawk on the street. stocks continue to unwind. some of this postelection rally is powell on thursday suggest the economy is signaling no hurry. december cut odds fall below 60%. pretty solid. shares of vaccine makers extending their declines after

trump nominates vaccine skeptic robert f kennedy junior to leave hhs. >> shares of ali baba are rallying, the e-commerce giant beat profit expectations with its latest earnings. and a chips boost, taiwan securing billions in government subsidies continuing to build out new - in arizona. let's begin with the trump transition he announced vaccine skeptic rfk junior as his choice to become secretary of hhs. news of that selection weighing on shares of vaccine makers including moderna, pfizer and - extending a bit to packaged food to government contractors yesterday. certainly defense. >> they took aim at all of these companies. >> let's just back up. before we decide to sell all

stocks. the economic team i think if they demonstrate kind of not a mainstream but people of the orb of what we talk about. otherwise as mayor bloomberg wrote, the idea that this man is in charge of hhs is a giant setback. if you read the pfizer annual it says that vaccines are the greatest single invention of the 20th century. that would seem to be at odds with what rfk is saying. >> health and human services is enormous too. it oversees medicare and medicaid as well. >> i do not think musk can get rid of it like that. >> although it is the musk/ramaswamy effort toward efficiency that was pressuring a number of those stocks.

at least the efense contractors, not related to rfk. there are a number of different areas getting hit as a result of potential appointments. i do not know how to describe musk he's not a part of the administration. >> you knew there would be surprises and then one surprises occur why are we surprised? >> we've been talking about rfk for a couple of weeks. this was not fully in. >> i think that if you are moderna in the vaccine business, don't you just have to have more of a haircut then it is getting this morning. or you can say this has been going down consistently for a long time? >> you said yesterday he would talk about names not expected to do well under this white house is this part of that? >> it was. we knew that rfk junior feels that - gouging. you cannot like it as much now that you know that. when you have the person who is

basically in charge of say medicare or whatever. >> that is where the real power is >> the deep state. that is what we call it. the deep state. >> how you execute on your anti- vaccine position through this position, i guess i would like to understand that process more in detail in terms of what he would actually do. >> would be operation slow speed? i do not know? >> the unniest thing i ever said was i am laughing on the inside. >> it was funny i will laugh later. you are referencing work speed which got the covid vaccine out there. now, the republican party runs away from it. >> i think we need to get a clarification of how he stands. the reason i say that let's say you decided you wanted to listen to jd vance on ftc. he said he liked - very smart.

these things tend to be not fair. we need to have, look, david, there is talk he would be against the polio vaccine and measles vaccine. i do not think so. >> i guess we have to hear from him and see what he actually does. will he be confirmed? >> as opposed to some other people? >> yes these recessed appointments is typically been when the parties does not have control. in this case, is it the senate going to demand at least they be allowed to confirm their own party's nominees? >> if you are a traditional business person who hought that you had great access to the president and were talking to him fairly regularly, i think you might be surprised at the nature of a lot of these. and you begin to worry that the economic panel maybe a little more different. in the same way that you have a fox news guy, dynamite guy, defense department. he has been against a lot of

the - if you read the jeff goldberg atlantic piece i think it is kind of required reading it would not come out very much in his favor. you do have gates who, you do not necessarily put him up there with i don't know, we have had some pretty dynamite attorney generals over the years. you know what i mean? >> we will see. durbin who chairs the senate judiciary demanding that house ethics make this report public as part of the vetting process. the washington post says that - will meet with trump today at mar-a-lago where is let nick is also making a run for that i wonder which name is more market positive? >> the more he talks the less - i do not think he understands. i think it will not go to him, unless he really keeps a lower profile. trump does not like that. i remember as a judge on the apprentice which by the way is real-life now. bear with me, you're not

supposed to go out and say look i am smart. >> it comes up a lot in conversations you have and tend to talk to a lot of people in the financial community during the course of the week. i would say that - would be preferred. >> i agree with that. >> to put it mildly. >> he's a real guy. >> we do not know treasury we do not know commerce. >> is - beneficial? >> we do know commerce. >> will - play a role? who i worked as a partner for years. >> we do not have a national economic council. >> he is an old hand a steady hand that he worked with reagan, long tradition. he works at fox now but he worked with us for a long time that would not be reassuring. >> we have program at interior. that has big implications for

permitting on space and energy. >> again, i like - >> i bet you do. >> david often makes fun of me about wanting to put a disney theme park in new mexico on 400,000 acres. the thing that they did this week was say that the mexico is a rate part of the permian. we have not thought about that. that is my reaction. >> when i went to the permian i was in the new mexico part of the permian there is a lot of activity there you are saying they could go even further. >> by the way, - did the numbers so i am withdrawing the idea they have to do the theme park. >> you are not going to push that? >> - i may have to just text a biker and say the pressure for the new mexico the park is over. >> why not combine the two and

have an oil drilling related ride? what do you think? >> fund for the entire family. >> it is so great like the pipeline at shawshank let's go. >> speaking of economic personnel, jamie diamond spoke yesterday at the apex summit, talked about lower incomes groups across the world how they have not kept pace. also talked about the present's post he will not be invited to join the administration. >> first of all i wish the president well and thank you. i just want to tell the president i've not had a pass for 25 years i'm not about ready to start. >> some people joked about - >> the board is a little slap on the board or is it like but jensen did to - you sold us but

i love you. >> that was rough. i guess he does not have one person let's say. who sits above him and tells him what to do. he had never interested in joining the trump administration. >> no, he would rather rebuild queens in his honor. i have this big giant atlas thing. >> you have land in queens too? >> 20 the 1964 world's fair. >> so did i i was wheeled in there. 1966. i lived nearby. >> you were not even born yet. >> i was born in 64. >> i went to it it was an amazing thing. i want to rebuild it let's rebuild it. >> i was physically there. >> you do not see the people? >> i was there and then i met with well - >> i thought that general

marshall are - marshall was right. i was in the room. the room the war room. there was no fighting in that war room let me tell you. let's go back to reality. we are getting these people being picked were kind of like let's say they are a little more subservient than people thought do not seem to be as independent as trump 1.0. that is what business people are a little scared of. >> how about the theory some of the choices are set up a sacrificial lambs to create leverage for later pics. >> i think that is the case, the art of the deal. hhs i think if you are pfizer right now, if you are - i think you are saying are you out of your mind? come on. we were warp speed. isn't warp speed good? question if he is warp speed. - warp speed that is where i thought it came from. >> moving to the nasdaq up a

couple of percent. >> it is index i think it is smart. i think the company has maybe the best rule of 40 of any company i deal with. the fastest growing. i have been behind it ever since the previous quarter. >> speaking of software at large. - writes a great chart looking at what has happened to the - versus semi is really since the election but he points out, you cannot tariff software. there is softness in pc softness in vehicles. >> i do not know if you are - i signed up for it. i think it is remarkable. you want the agent more than the person. look at applied materials. i went over that quarter and it was fine. the forecast was not as good as we thought. a lot of that was china. china will have a down tick.

some of it because it - this week, otherwise it was good. look at what they are doing. look at what they are doing, they are eviscerating that. i think that applied materials return to $5 million in buyback. they can buy back much more. the people selling that are partly reacting to the -. i do not want any of that it has china, the wafers are not that good. pc not that good. in other words, stay away. i think that is wrong. >> you want to buy at the open? >> you cannot buy there obviously are huge accounts that want to go. i would like to buy it and maybe two or three to see if they come in and reload. a lot of times if you sell down 18 the people you cannot give the report to they wanted and 19 at the end of the day so the market down 19. a common fact is we do not talk enough about on air. >> what about - point yesterday that next week - may not beat as much on revenue as they

normally do. average beat on revenue $2 billion the last 5/4. >> i think that could be true you are still dealing with the idea of a yield on lack well. their current generation? yield being not all of them are done. you might make for every thousand maybe you have to throw away like 400. the gross margin will not be what people want. not as many watch parties as there are for saquon barkley. >> what a performance, was at the fourth quarter was where it was that? >> you had to stay up, i am sorry. >> the game was over at seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. >> and i show you what it is like to be able to one through the commanders. >> the second one was even better than the first. he is unbelievable to >> my favorite stat he is leading the nfl in touches that in the the one and almost every one of those plays results in a

jalen hurts touchdown. >> that is why he has the most touchdowns. i will say that was a game that shows me that thursday night football is back. there has been a lot of good thursday night football. amazon always stuck with the jaguars versus the titans every week. or the - play the titans. >> the chance of thank you giants. >> when you have an owner - test the market. how we roseman will be all over that. he is the general manager. >> a good mood, a good signing. >> when i am in philadelphia it is like oh god liberty sound so horrible.

investment production best utilization these are ctober reads on it does to production - industrial production. we have -5/10 in the rearview mirror which was 3/10 lower was advised. not looking terrific on industrial production. we did have the big empire so maybe there are things bubbling under the surface but it is not showing up in this october data. utilization rates were lower 77.1. that does match expectations but it is well below last month which was revised from 77 1/2 to 77.4. 77.1 would be the lightest rate of the year 77.1 goes back to april of 21. april of 21. even though it is only 3/10 lower than the revised number it is significantly pushing

back our - and it underscores some of the issues we have in the production utilization. everything inside of manufacturing, mining. i am sure these numbers may her cup in the bed in the future potential he under he next administration. the big news dollar index everyone your high, interest rates are close to unchanged on the day. when you look on the we, we are up nine out of two, 15 15 out of 10 and squawk on the street will return. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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- at the end of q3 on that note we are also watching altar and - i do not blame - russell has done a lot with the uber of the world and - i think it is down a low point. also, i met with dave campbell not that long ago. he did not know about buffett being involved. i think that - when you see resistance - what are they going to do.

a stunning summer. they could buy so many companies if they wanted to use leverage. it is amazing and an interesting question. >> when i was at - based on the fundamentals. i do a lot of work with dominoes and i think russell has a plan to turn it. he has lowered prices, given some good deals. let's get the opening bell. on the big board is a real estate adjustment - consulting firm focused on business transformation. as we are once again within 10 points of 5900 this time.

we had these markets down horribly in the morning. the overwhelming nature of this alleged shortfall in forecast which i say elated if you say it is just china and that is government mandate, i think it is overdone. - came in they took a $2 billion clip for china last year. i think that the data center is alive and well. the real estate - dave cody. talked about that so many times. he is the chairman of the company, one of the more

successful - they just ring the bell and they are instrumental in the data center. you can see the stock is up 150% over the last 10 and half. >> such a great ceo you do not want to really, i happen to be a good friend of dave and i think he is great. i would not necessarily cross dave. - he said but it is not your house. i said i do not care i'm a good neighbor. that is what i do. >> a friendship was born. >> exactly, a very nice thing.

>> i was going to break some news but it turns out i do not have it anymore. >> i am - on the private markets a story that i perhaps should have done a little sooner in the show but we will do it now. it involves the most important man on the planet elon musk. actually back to the business side of musk, not the government side we have been talking about so often. back to his latest initiative which has been ex-a.i. his a.i. that has been raising money by the bucket full of late. much of it going into building the largest single cloud cluster if you want to call it that, the biggest supercomputer

in the world in memphis, tennessee. at a faster rate than anyone has ever seen anybody do such a thing. why not? it is elon musk. >> what is in that? >> h 100s. there is a look at it an old plant. you can see the headline at the bottom we are giving you. a couple of potential investors - i am hearing it is as much as $6 billion. i believe dollars - the-based sovereign funds. you may see a total of as much as $6 billion raised here.

this is a company that raised roughly that amount previously. and closed the last funding round at a post funding valuation of around $24 billion. the number i am hearing here is about 50 perhaps a little over $50 billion. my understanding is it will be closed as soon as early next week. they will just keep buying those h 100s. again, only the way musk can and the information did an interesting story on this a few days ago. what they have done in memphis in as short a time as possible to build the data center and network all of these h 100s is nothing short of many say, somewhat miraculous. so much faster than any other company can build a data center. the key issue has been power. you know what they're doing? they are hooking up natural gas turbines to power this thing. obviously - >> that is why i thought that

he shared on x as they were hooking things up at the data center. some other pictures, what is going on in - to put that in perspective it would power about 100,000 homes. just to turn back to muss, a businessman. a.i. will be a 50+ billion dollar potential valuation having raised as much as $12 billion in not that much time. $6 billion with this phrase. the question, they will start to go into revenue mode is my understanding. they use everything from x as data for the large language model. then, full self driving tesla will reliable supercomputer

which is already the largest and will be double the size. >> will tesla pay this company. they will to get their neural network part of the brain. >> that seems to be what i am hearing. musk has no people to go to it is him and - who have been putting this together. i did text him. and he has not gotten back to me but i did ask him to confirm these numbers. to confirm these numbers. there you have it. we talked so often about public markets but here's a private company added to the musk fold. spacex the largest of his private holdings but this is moving up quickly. >> it also may be one of the reasons why i am no i'm not looking for - the h 100 is not the most current - the h 100

and h 200. >> maybe if you already start with h 100. >> - they are all cumulative. they use software and it is not wiki 46 and then you want to turn it back. you do the h 100 and it works well. they do not depreciate. and jensen mentions the greatness of working with elon musk on the self driving. right now, - makes the best chips. very begrudging. >> jensen was quoted as saying as far as i know there's only one person in the world who could do that. that being 122 days, this colossus, that is what they call it. the supercomputer. >> that is the data that would tell you we have to left -

let's full self driving. >> tesla has billions of hours of driving. that goes back to the conversation about tesla and powering full self driving. >> way moe is already in places and i think it will be hard to get california for musk because there are regulators. >> we did not talk about yesterday the $7500 tax credit likely going away under a trump white house. the notion that when workers reported tesla was behind it yesterday wells had a note in which they said tesla probably would be okay with it because they think it will hurt their rivals the most. >> i think that ford has been hurt by the warranties. >> he saw the gm layoffs today. 1000 calories. >> i think the industry will be rocked by this because they spend so much money.

i think that the stocks, i like mary barr i think he is terrific but let gm cool off too. that is because the - >> they continue to buy back an enormous amount of stocks. when is the last time gm traded above eight times earnings? i do not even know. >> ford does not do a buyback and if you overlay for her gm you see he power of a buyback versus a dividend. the dividend does not cut it versus a buyback. >> and other good chart on that front. give me a five year walmart. today, jeffries goes to 100. this stock is up 60% for the year. you can see where it inflected at the beginning. december of last year. >> that is when they made the decision we will have the cheapest food but not sacrifice quality. five dollars seems to be the amount you to - the five dollar

hamburger from mcdonald's. that stock is not over. i think walmart, costco and amazon have won the battle. that is why i think that - is correct, real competitors - if you have an ftc going into microsoft - >> that is exactly where i'm going to go. >> her term expired in september. she is gone. >> she is leaving. >> a little late in the game. >> the question i think on antitrust because obviously the market has gotten so excited about the prospect of deals everywhere.

will be, will bp fans have any input on those appointments because as our viewers probably know he has - there is sort of a resistance to big tech to some extent. i think we need to watch closely who replaces them at the ftc and doj. you have the continued questions about whether yes there may be more dealmaking but if you run afoul in a certain way of the administration you might be under more scrutiny. >> can david zaslow at warner bros. do anything he wants? >> i do not know. >> maybe potential attorney general gates, where is he? >> my pun steel i mean - speaking with him in detail about his view on corporate hegemony.

i can share that with you later. >> our friend michael has a chart about how much people have done in terms of legal background. gates has not finished all that high in terms of experience. >> in terms of legal training? >> yes and how much, it is a comp located chart i do not mean to oversimplify but i think there is a sense that the attorney general is one of those positions like abby kennedy, the real bobby kennedy, the first bobby kennedy may have had not as much experience and he turned out to be i think, a fantastic attorney general. jimmy hoffa would not agree either way. >> always good to mention - going up. >> goldman by the way had a great turn yesterday.

we might talk to - about tariffs looking back at a look at prior tariff cycles under trump 1.0. you can see if you have it built in the booth, - of all goods versus all goods subject to the cost of tariffs. you can see the lines and you can see would happen - what happened to the price of the goods. >> we all kind of new a lot of this stuff. i think that - a month ago would have been rfk junior because, if you are at moderna, you will not come on squawk box and say this is good. the companies that have spent, gs k is the one that is really hurt because they are the vaccine company. if you are skeptic about fluoride, would certainly be a skeptic about some of the vaccines. >> we are seeing a decline in moderna and pfizer.

>> when you put him on it was good a big hit for our viewers. spirit - >> here is dave cody can you beat this? if we called him up can we just say hi? this is a man who we demand you read his book. he took honeywell from a company that was deeply troubled to a company that is fantastic. >> you look really well. >> he looks fantastic. >> i think he is going younger as the stock prices go higher.

>> it does help there is a rejuvenation aspect to it. i'm going to get younger still. >> talk about the ceo you got. >> he is up doing an interview right now. he is absolutely terrific. >> this guy is absolutely terrific. a great neighbor. what do you think of elon musk building a data center in memphis that quickly? the biggest supercomputer in the world. >> i think he is absolutely remarkable. >> what you think of the patriots? >> there is always next year. everybody has to go through rebuilding. i made big fan of robert kraft, the patriots, the celtics. the bruins, red sox all of them. >> are you surprised by any of the pics so far from trump? >> yes. >> you might want to go into it a little more but i do not blame you. >> this is dave cody hughes to

run honeywell for all those years we could ask plenty of questions about that. >> i am a long way distance - distant from that one. i would say i will not - handle those bastions. >> back to the data center, i am curious we talk about it all the time. power in terms of the constraining factor. give us some sense as to how you see that evolving whether our be able to meet the needs or is the money going to keep flooding in as people seem to think? >> you have given me a lot to talk about first of all we have the agricultural age we have industrial age now are you in the digital age. i do not think there is enough of a recognition that the world is changing significantly just like it did back in the 1900s with the industrial age. that is what is happening. fundamental to that is digital, data centers. all of this requires holding

data somewhere. data is growing 20% a year it has been for years and will go one that for decades. there is no alternative to data centers now when it comes to how you hold data. that includes quantum computing. that requires data centers also because there is a digital to quantum transformation has to happen. >> when you are thinking about that, honeywell was thinking about it. >> there are two big issues when you talk to anybody building data centers. one is permitting the second power. one of the things i'm quite encouraged by the trump administration. their deregulation push is essential in the permitting site. you will see the same kind of push on the power side. with two aspects one is permitting and the second is going to be generating more power. it will not be just nuclear. we need a lot more power. >> there are stories on the

tape this morning framing it as a showdown between the nuclear lobby of the gas lobby, is it that simple? >> i don't think it is so much a showdown. even if you are trying to build the small modular reactors, that is five or six years before that happens. >> we have under invested in the grid for decades. this is something that has to go posthaste if we are going to support the digital transmission. >> what an unexpected pleasure. >> a.i. is real. >> good to see you, we appreciate you. we will get a healthy diet is not just the data this morning, retail sales and of course ip but also some fed

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. live always from the new york stock exchange. stocks are pulling back today. the s&p 500 down about a 10th of 1%. most sectors are read. technology is mostly waiting on the major averages, down 1.5% in information technology.

the three sectors great right now, energy, financials, and utilities. financials continuing the run, actually having a good week, up more than 1% despite a market that is down. 1.6%. that is the s&p tally so far for the week, the nasdaq down 2.3%. we are seeing this pullback, part of it on higher yields, higher rates. recalibrating the recalibration of the fed and what they're going to do next. take a look at the treasuries. we did get some data which we will talk about, but higher yields. 4.485. so we are bumping up against the 4.5 level in the two year yield at 4.36%. 30 minutes here trading session, error three big movers we are watching. shares of domino's pizza and pool corp. higher after berkshire hathaway proposes new stakes in both companies. more on what the big money investors are buying and selling later in the market in the show. vaccine makers are under pressure again after president elect trump picked rfk junior to leave health and human services. more on what that appointment would actually mean for big

pharma coming up. and ali baba is moving lower after missing revenue estimates, but profit jumping almost 60% thanks to growth in the cloud business. >> a lot of data today and fed speak. let's get some inventories with rick. good morning. >> yes, good morning, indeed. this is september business inventories, which means it's the last month of the third quarter. and we were expecting a number up to 10, comes in a bit like, up 1/10. that is actually the weakest inventory billed on a monthly basis going all the way back to march, when it was -110. so this will not be king in any additional horsepower to the gdp number, and it does underscore. we want to pay close attention for inventories to see how many widgets we are making, what it does for gdp, and ultimately the best litmus test is if there are buyers for all the inventory. we have had a huge jump, as sarah pointed out, in rates. predated this morning, 38:30 eastern, we are at 4:31, now 4:35, up to on the week changed

on the day. the tins were at 433, currently at 448. they touch 4.5. they are up four on the day, and get this, of nearly 20 basis points on the week. sarah, back to you. >> yeah, it's a big jump. thank you, rick. to hit retail sales today, this is obviously an important one, and we did get a .4% jump month over month. i mean, remember, it is unadjusted for inflation, but it still paints a picture of a pretty resilient and healthy consumer. also upwardly revised .8% gain in september. so it was less than september, but september was better and october is not so bad. eight of the 13 categories, that breaks down into retail sales, posted increases. electronics and appliance stores, very strong in the month with more than a 2% rise. motor vehicle and parts

dealers, so a jump in autos, as well. food services and drinking. this is the only service as part of the entire retail sales. everything else is good so people watch it closely, because that will hop part of the economy. still going strong, building materials. this is the monthly jobs, including where the spending is not happening. no surprise there, heard from home depot's ceo on squawk today. that is been a weak spot. health and personal care, sporting goods, and hobby stores. if you add it all up, a lot of people look at the control group, which feeds into the government calculations of gdp in terms of spending. that actually decrease .1% for october, so that is a notable step down, and we will see that in terms of the gdp expectations. overall, nothing really to worry about as far as the consumer and as far as the fed, which we know is trying to walk this fine line between squashing inflation once and for all and bring it down to the 2% target without wrecking the economy. don't think there's anything in here that would sway them one

way or another. we did hear from ed chair powell yesterday, speaking on this event, which really move the market as far as his willingness to sound like he may be moving towards a pause. listen for yourself. >> with labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, i expect inflation to continue to come down towards our 2% objective, albeit on a sometimes bumpy path. the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. >> it was that line at the end, then he went on to say it may be the case that we slow the pace of what we are doing that led the market to really change the way it priced december, from, i don't know, almost 80% odds that they cut in december to now we are in the high 50s% odds depending on which swaps market you look at. but less chance of a cut in december, which i've been saying. if you look at the data, and i

know the chicago fed president was on this morning saying we are still restricted. it is harder to make a case of the fed being too restrictive, given the economic data has been good, rates are moving higher in conjunction with that, and the inflation numbers, while they do show progress, have also shown signs of stickiness and stubbornness in places like for inflation. now it looks like we have cpi and ppi, we are going to get pc, which is what they pay attention to. looks like we are tracking a 0% increase in core pce. which is not as good as .2. which is where it was. >> rick mentioned the 20 basis point move in the tenure, and then we touch 4.5%, largely due to what, those comments? or be on that? >> those comments fueled it further. it is a combo of better economic data, better economic outlook on trump's election victory, fewer rate cuts priced into 2025. and a little bit firmer core

inflation numbers. and powell's comments were icing on the cake. if you add all that up, it amounts to the picture where the fed does not need to cut as much, where there is potentially more inflationary worries, but also for our economy that we are looking at. that is been the story. here's the chart of the moment right now. this is from bank of america, michael hartnett noted u.s. stocks verse the rest of the world. that is the relative chart. and this is what the u.s. exceptionalism looks like right now as far as money flowing into the u.s. the other two circles are bubble periods, which is not to say we are in a bubble now. it is just to say we have surpassed u.s. exceptionalism during the internet bubble and the nifty 50 bubble, and look at where we are on a relative performance. you wonder why the dollar is strengthening, why the money is pouring in. >> well, the point is that you sell u.s. hubris, as he puts it, and you by u.s. humiliation. the question is, it is hard to call. >> look at how far we have surpassed these other levels.

i think it is just a reflection of the mood right now. >> to monitor how often people say exceptionalism. maybe you should put that to your data set. the more hey say it. >> well, the stock 600 is up five and change for the year, versus s&p 25. if that continues that would be the biggest outperformance for us versus europe since 95. you got to go back a few decades. >> we have better growth numbers. more fiscal spending. we have fewer rate cut outlooks. and now we have a president- elect that is talking about more stimulative policy in the form of tax cuts and deregulation. tariffs, a?. but i thought a benefit the u.s. more than the rest of the world, because the foreign stocks have been hit on it, and foreign currency have been hit on it. see you at all that up and you can see why money has been flowing up. >> is interesting given kramer's bullish europe recently. by the way, goldman sachs is out with his 2025 outlook, laying out some base cases and risk cases under the president

elect second term. goldman expect a u.s. economic growth of 2.5 next year. terrace, the biggest risk to growth and says in addition to higher china and auto terrace, expect much lower immigration, fresh tax cuts, regulatory easing. goldman sachs chief economist head of global research here to break it all down. happy friday. great note yesterday. to our discussion, can we let the economy run hot safely? >> i think 2.5% is certainly very solid growth. we think it is actually pretty close to the current potential growth rate, because at the moment, that is still being elevated. so we don't have the unemployment rate come back down to levels that would be more inflationary. we actually think we will stay in the low force for unemployment. the labor market has adjusted, it is now in balance. so even with this very sturdy growth environment, i think we will see continued, gradual

deceleration and wage growth this inflation, and we will also see more rate cuts. we do expect to cut at the december meeting. i think it is true that the recent data have been a little hotter, as chair powell indicated yesterday. so there is probably more risks to that. the market is obviously reflecting that. but i also think that the funds rate, at 4.5 to 4 3/4% is still quite high. i think they want to bring that down. >> so you got a quarterly beginning in march of next year? >> that's right, yeah. >> and on tariffs, we showed a chart earlier. you look at the prospect of tariffs and 10% up across the board, you think that is when you start to see some meaningful knock on effects against gdp. >> that is what would worry me. i think if we have a audit terrace across the board, 10%, sometimes the president-elect has talked about even higher numbers. i think that would more

negative for growth, and it would push up inflation by more. base case is that we will get china tariffs, probably quite soon after january 20th, and that is going to have some impact. but it is modest and are positives to offset it. fiscal policy is going to be a little bit more expansionary, and regulatory changes, also growth supportive. so we basically stick with the view that we have going into this election, which is that the economy is going to continue to perform strongly. outperform other advanced economies, and outperform the consensus for the third year in a row. >> just to reiterate, why are you not concerned about inflation sticking around, if we haven't seen, i mean, we have seen a ton of progress. we have sort of been bumping along these levels for the last few months, especially in core

inflation, with an outlook that portends more inflation. >> well, there are some important base effects. this is not surprising that the year on year rate is sort of moving sideways. this is what everybody expected a few months ago, because we are basically comparing with some unusually low numbers around this time of 2023. i think we are still making progress. the sequential inflation pace has been encouraging. again, the labor market rebalancing as continued, the quit rate, job openings, a lot of those indicators do say that we are leaving the inflationary period further and further in the rearview mirror. >> so you think there is still reason for the fed to guard against further weakness in the labor market? because it is harder and harder to make that case, isn't it? >> i just think that, again, the funds rate is at a high level and, you know, as long as we are still in the mid to high

fours, the case for bringing the funds rate down gradually is still pretty strong. once we are in the threes, i think it's going to be a lot more data dependent. >> so why is the tenure at 4.5? >> well, i think it is that there is a term premium, so the market is expecting the funds rate to be somewhere in the high threes. we have it somewhere lower, but that is kind of market pricing. and then there is a premium for locking up your money for 10 years as opposed overnight. >> i can you guys did this big piece on a.i., i think earlier this year. but i bring it into the conversation because the labor productivity, which is certainly a contributing to our increase in gdp versus europe, for example, any thoughts on what that is going to mean going forward, a.i., for example, as it gets incorporated into the enterprise in a more sniffing away? >> yeah, you are right. this is been an area of great news for the u.s. we have seen 1.8% annualized productivity growth since the fourth quarter

of 2019, which is the cleanest comparison. and that is about 3/10 or so above the pre-pandemic trend, pretty good. but in europe, as you say, and other advanced economies, canada, australia in the same boat, the productivity numbers have been very weak. now, i don't think that is a i yet. i do think it has to do with the fact that technology is so much more important in the u.s. economy then in, say, the european economy. but the a.i. boost is still ahead of us, and we think that probably won't really be visible in the macro numbers, in the productivity numbers until late this decade. so there is already good news, and in some sense, coming further down the road which is definitely one of the real bright spots in the economic data this year. >> finally, on commodities, with the exception of that gas, copper, aluminum, crude, since the election, are they at a

distant inflationary signal, or is it more about dollar strength at this point? >> what i focus on most for the inflationary signal is always oil prices. we have not really seen a major impulse there. if you look at it over the last year, of course it has been the does inflationary signal. gasoline prices have been coming down. we are in a 70 $-85 range estimate for grant. so we think that not much is going to change. there are some upside risks, of course. the iran conflict, for example, is an upside risk. but there is also a desire to increase u.s. oil production and the incoming administration is going to be very focused on that. so that, i think, is the offsetting downside risk. but for now, we have not made any changes to our range. >> yeah, we are looking for the national gas average to maybe hit a three over the weekend. we will find out.

a lot to get to with you, and there will be for weeks to come. thanks. as we go to break, take a look at our road map for the rest of the hour. the president-elect nominating rfk junior to the nation's top health job. vaccine makers did get hit yesterday. we will talk more about what his appointment would mean for big pharma. plus, what wall street's biggest investors are buying and selling in this market. we have a number of stocks on the move today as a result. and after the break, the tapestry murder officially off, ending the chance for two of america's biggest luxury houses to combine. the ceo of tapestry joined us exclusively to talk about what comes next for her anthony. squawk on the street will be right back, with the dow down 262. don't go anyway. s. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest,

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luxury retailers tapestry and capri calling off their $8.5 billion merger because of regulatory hurdles. proposed mergers blocked by the ftc, they say they don't expect the deal to resolve before declination in february. >> you fought hard for this, you fought in a courtroom which i followed, fought the ftc. said you were going to appeal, but now you are calling it off. why? >> well, the uncertainty with

the outcome of the legal action, and it was unlikely that the issues would've been revolved by the outside data in our contract. and we agreed with capri that it was in the best interest of both of our companies to terminate the agreement and move forward. what i do want to say, importantly, we have always had multiple pathways to win at tapestry. we remain in a position of strength, and we have significant runway ahead. >> i mean, the stock is up sharply since you called it off, and as it was becoming clear that it's going to have to be called off, is this a blessing in disguise? are you secretly happy about this? >> well, what i can tell you is the strategic rationale of the deal has always been compelling, and we saw terrific opportunity to bring more relevance to their brands, consumers would have benefited, our teams would have benefited from our ownership. we were the right owners for these brands. but again, we are confident in

our opportunities, the opportunities in our organic illnesses. our teams have not lost focuse . we have been building strength in our business. we see that with the momentum at coach. we are making progress at cadence stewart, and again, we have a lot of runway ahead. and i think the reaction from the street is just another vote of confidence in this team and the work that our teams are doing. >> i do want to talk about the future, but just on the case, you know, as a consumer, i am a consumer, i know how many choices there are for handbags. i follow the court case pretty closely, i'm not a legal expert, but i was surprised with the way the judge ruled. i'm sure you were, too. what went wrong there? >> well, you know, i can't deconstruct what happened. i would say we were surprised, as well. again, this deal was compelling. and we saw the value of creation opportunity for tapestry, but also the opportunity to bring more relevant product to more

consumers globally and really we are the right owners. we would've been the right owners for these brands. and again, consumers would have benefited from this transaction. our teams would have benefited from this transaction. that's not the way it went, and i am a pragmatist. we also have a tremendous business and a tremendous amount of runway ahead with our organic business and with our teams. and that is what we are focused on at tapestry. >> but we have a new regulatory regime coming in with a new administration. would you ever revisit the capri deal in that environment? >> well, i would not want to speculate. our focus right now is on our existing business, and again, we see a lot of runway ahead in terms of our business. we've got real momentum at coach, and i think you can see that in the arketplace, the customers really excited about what the teams are building and what we are building at the coach brand. and we are just getting

started. we have tremendous runway ahead, and we have work to do at kate and stuart. we are focused on doing that work. i will also say that, from a capital allocation priority standpoint, we talked yesterday about first investing in our business and our brands, because of the opportunities that we see. but, given our growth expectations and our current valuation, we are also returning a lot of cash to shareholders. we think one of the best investments we can make at this time is to invest in tapestry, and we talked about a $2 billion sherry purpose yesterday, and i think that just signals the confidence that we have in our business and the runway ahead. >> i was going to ask about that. and the stock market like that is, as well. the two million-dollar buyback. i was going to ask why that is the best use of cash for you right now. you said you see the shares undervalued. if you would've done it last year, you would've gotten them even cheaper. >> again, the transaction with capri was rappelling. and the strategic rationale was

very clear. we would've been great owners of that business, and we saw that as a compelling value creation opportunity. but we never lost focus on our organic business. we see a lot of runway ahead, and given the environment and the growth potential that we see in our business, as well as our valuation, that is our priority right now. and i will say, it is really our second priority. our first priority is to invest in our brands and our business. and those investment we are making with our teams and our capabilities in the marketing investments we are making are working. so we will continue to fuel and fund our business, and we will also invest in tapestry. >> well, i wonder on the strategy now, coach is doing very well. you have referenced that a number of times, it is outperforming some of its competitors. not as much on kate and stuart wiseman. you are chasing, they are a platform company of lots of brands. why not just be a coach, as a really strong brand, and potentially look to do deals the other way?

and potentially sell us some of the assets that are underperforming? >> we believe in the power of our multibrand platform. and all of our brands on our platform benefit from the capabilities that we bring to bear as tapestry through our platform, including coach. to your point, coach is doing extremely well. we have invested in the capabilities to help coach stretch beyond what they could do as an individual brand. and we can bring those capabilities to more brands, we are doing that work at kate and at stewart. and again, a lot of runway ahead , but there is a lot of power in our platform. and importantly, we are working on building the capabilities to reach and engage consumers in relevant ways, at an emotional level that really supports brand building around the world. >> what is the kate story? what is the opportunity in the market look like for that, and what is the timeline? >> yeah, kate is a fantastic

brand. we have a tremendous amount of confidence in the brand and we are working very hard to restore topline growth. we are making progress. we have made progress in profitability, so we see expanding growth and operating margins. we are acquiring new and younger consumers to the brand, and some of the new product that we are delivering is resonating. we called out some of that product on our last earnings call. but we need to o more, and we need to invest behind the brand building capabilities, to really be more clear and more sharp with consumers about what the brand stands for. we just on boarded our new ceo, joined us just last month. ava erdman. she has a track record, a strong track record of doing this brand building work with ute brands, global luxury brands, and we are excited. i have been working with ava and the team. we are moving with urgency to take quick action on the things we can immediately impact. and that includes editing our

assortments, updating, and revising our marketing expression. we are moving with urgency on those short-term fixes. and we will continue to do the work to sharpen our long-term strategic actions, as well. so, all of that work is ongoing. but i am confident and excited about the runway ahead at kate spade. >> i also wanted to ask you about china, because the coach numbers in china were only down a little bit, versus the luxury industry, which has been down double digits in china. so what is the market dynamic you see there, and are you taking share? >> we are taking share. and the market dynamic in china is similar to what we see in other parts of the world, where there is a challenging macroenvironment and a consumer is choice. we feel very well positioned to deliver in that environment. our brands deliver unbeatable value, and our teams are innovating and delivering innovative product for

consumers. we see consumers respond. we continue to invest in that market, it is a key market, and we see consumers responding to those investments. and we believe we have a long runway ahead in china, but also around the world. we are driving strong growth in asia outside of china. our strongest growth this past quarter was in europe, and we also see opportunity to continue to drive growth in north america. and we are doing it with a focus on the consumer, meeting them where they are, and delivering the innovation and emotion that they responded to with our brands. >> what about tariffs? we know that president-elect trump has threatened terrace, especially on china, where he has mentioned as much as 60%. what would that do for your business? what kind of supply chain do you have right now in terms of exposure to china? >> well, agility and resilience are the keywords in any supply chain. i would say that our exposure to china, specifically, from a

sourcing perspective, is quite low. less than 10% of our finished goods of production is in china. and if you think about our core category of leather goods, it is minimal. almost nothing is sourced from the finished goods perspective from china. so that is been something that we have been working on, not just in the last month or two months or six months or two years, this has been a decade- long transition to make sure that we built a supply chain that is diversified, that is resilient, and is sustainable. and i think over the last four or five years we have seen how important that is, to driving a sustainable business, to have a resilient and diversified supply chain. so we feel very well positioned to continue to deliver great value for consumers through our diversified supply chain. >> what you think happens to cores? it has been a disastrous performance. >> again, i wouldn't want to

speculate. we believed in the value that we could bring to that business and to that brand. you know, you would have to ask capri. the plans are they are probably better positioned to answer those questions. >> i just wonder, do you still consider them a top competitor? >> well, as we made the point, and we have made the point pretty consistently over the last 18 months, we have many competitors. in our space. there are existing competitors. we take every competitor seriously. there are new competitors coming into the space all the time. sarah, you and i both shop. we both see all of the competition that exists. so, what i love about our business is we can never rest. competition comes from everywhere. that makes us better, and that is what our teams want to do. we love to compete. >> finally, we got a retail sales number today that showed the consumer still in pretty remarkably resilient shape here

in the u.s. how do you describe what you are seeing in terms of helping the consumer right now in your market, which, i don't know, i don't want to use the word accessible luxury. i feel like it will trigger you after this court case. but based on the income profile of your customer, how is she doing? >> well, you know, what we have seen over the last few quarters is consistent to what we are seeing today. and that is a consumer who is choice will. and we owe consumers innovation and emotion and value when we deliver product into the marketplace. so we focus on staying close to our consumers and understanding what is important to them. and we are in a business that is functional, they have functional leads. the consumer has emotional needs. and we have to understand all of that as we bring the creativity to the customer and meet them where they are. so, we continue to invest in that innovation. i think what you see in the marketplace is the brands that

are doing that well are winning. and the brands are not doing that well are not inning. so, we owe that to the consumer. the consumer is quite demanding, but we feel very well positioned going in the holiday with the momentum that we are building across all of our brands, including in coach. the gifting in kate spade that is so true to the brand dna. going in to boot season with stuart wiseman. so we are well-positioned to meet the consumer and deliver that compelling value that they respond to. >> well, we certainly appreciate you taking the time today to talk us through some of the big questions that investors have. thank you. >> thank you, sarah. >> the ceo of tapestry, which is now up 55% year to date. and best performing retailer, one of the best performing consumer discretionary stocks. bested by royal caribbean, general motors, and deckers outdoor.

>> meantime, s&p is on pace for a down week. the biggest like her since monday. supermicro is going to be on the top of that list, you can understand why. right now 1% declines on the s&p, 2% for te, anchd almost for nasdaq. coming up, the president-elect nominating rfk junior to lead hhs. we will talk about that impact on the market in a minute. (cheering) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly

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welcome back, here with your nbc news update. the iranian government says it wants the conflict between hezbollah and israel to end. an adviser to iran's supreme leader saying in beirut today that tehran will back any decision by lebanon to secure a cease-fire with israel. the comments coming as israel kept up its bombardment today of hezbollah -controlled areas in beirut. general motors today laid off about 1000 employees as the carmaker looks to cut costs and

realign its priorities. that is according to a person familiar with the decision and that the majority of the cuts came from its global technical center in michigan. a spokesperson confirmed layoffs, but did not disclose the number. and the world's largest producer of olive oil says prices for these so-called liquid gold are on pace to fall by as much as half from record levels. spain's mixed brands such as bertolli and carbonell, extreme weather and drought in southern europe have caused shortages and sent prices soaring. but improved conditions point to a better harvest this year. prices have already cooled about 35% since january. i will send it back to you. >> thanks. meantime, vaccine makers stocks are sharply lower on the week after the president nominated vaccine skeptic rfk junior as his pick to lead hhs. our image average joins us this morning from west palm beach with more on that and other transition pics.

>> good morning to you, carl. an interesting development in the past couple of minutes, former trump vice president mike pence putting out a statement urging republican senators to vote against confirmation of rfk junior, so the former vice president now at odds with his former boss over rfk junior's potential nomination as secretary of health and human services. mike pence saying in this statement, i believe the nomination of rfk junior to serve as secretary of hhs is an abrupt departure from the pro- life record of our administration and should be deeply concerning to millions of pro-life americans who have supported the republican party and our nominees for decades. since going on to say for the majority of his career, rfk junior has defended abortion on demand steering all nine months of pregnancy, supports overturning the dobbs decision, and has called for legislation to codify roe v wade. if confirmed, rfk junior would be the most pro-abortion republican appointed secretary of hhs in modern history. so, that sets up an interesting wrinkle in terms of potential senate republican report for

rfk junior's nomination, should get that far. rfk junior, obviously a bit of a lightning rod in terms of his vaccine skepticism and the huge sway that hhs has over the american medical and research, and food and drug establishment. remember, hhs has a $1.6 trillion budget. it oversees the national institutes of health, the center for disease control, the fda, and a whole host of other agencies. so, vast, sweeping authorities to go along with the title, secretary of health and human services. we will see if this moves the needle here now that fence has come out against rfk junior in terms of support up on capitol hill. but it is not clear that mike pence is a person at all relevant at this point to the trump inside circle. more relevant, perhaps, is elon musk, and trump was at an america first policy institute black-tie dinner last night, praising elon musk and also repeating that joke that he said about elon earlier in the week, suggesting maybe elon

musk is starting to get under his skin. take a listen to this. >> elon musk. elon. what a job. what a job he does. and he happens to be a really good guy. you know, he likes his place. i can't get him out of here, he dislikes this place. and you know what? i like having him here. >> we will see what that portends for the relationship between the potential, or the incoming most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world, who has been spending a lot of time together in mar-a-lago here in palm beach, florida over the past week or so, guys. unclear where that relationship goes. unclear where the rfk junior nomination goes, and whether or not the former president and future president is going to opt to bypass the senate confirmation process altogether and go for recess appointments for some of these more controversial nominees who might struggle to get the votes even in a republican senate.

back over to you. >> i don't know, i feel like that was very warm. he's i like having him here. i've been paying attention to the food stocks. >> a little dig there, though. >> i've been watching the food stocks, they are all weaker today, which is interesting, because some of the other household products, the other staples are stronger. and i am digging into this idea about what rfk has proposed as far as food, because this is part of his whole agenda, right? he has gone after froot loops and artificial coloring, and i am talking to some of these food companies about what it will mean for them and how big of a deal it would be for business. more reporting on that next week. but i am curious based on what he said so far, and now that we know that he is nominated to this position, what specific policies can he do that will impact whether it is pharmaceutical stocks, insurance stocks, food stocks, are there any key ones we are watching that has everyone so freaked out? >> yeah, there is just enormous power. the $1.6 trillion budget, most of that is mandatory spending

on medicare and medicaid, and control over cms gives you control over what the olicies are about what the federal government will spend money on and what it won't spend money on through those programs. but also, what the federal government will spend scientific dollars researching or not researching through national institutes of health. what the cdc will or will not recommend in terms of musicals. all of those policy decisions, under the purview of the secretary of health and human services. there would be policy processes in all of those. it is not a clean, easy process to simply throw the switch on that kind of spending and those kinds of decisions. but he would have in norma's essay on all of those issues, and he has expressed skepticism and really been at war with the scientific establishment for much of his career in terms of all of their decisions about chemicals, vaccines, and the like. >> who is more controversial, him or matt gaetz or agee? >> i think it's a tie. these are very controversial nominations that are getting

some heart palpitations to members of on capitol hill, even republican members on capitol hill. but again, if you look at this as a slate of candidates that donald trump has not envisioned going through the senate anyway, you can see why he feels free to name the people he wants to name, despite what we are seeing now, pushback from mike pence in the traditional republican evangelical conservatives who might be concerned on the abortion front. that is simply not a consideration that trump would have to worry about if he is going to recess appoint. >> i think we knew rfk was going and coming into the election. thank you very much, from palm thank you very much, from palm beach today. as we head break, uranium stocks rallying on some headlines that are crossing. we will tell you all about it next, back in just a moment. boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring

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uranium stocks moving big on some fresh headlines. pippa stevens is tracking that. >> uranium stocks are getting a boost as russia is reportedly proposing temporary restricted

on the export of enriched uranium to the u.s. according to reuters it is in response to the u.s. imposing its own ban on imports of russian uranium last spring. now, part of that was thanks to a growing worry in washington that russia would with denies uranium. now, it is a major player controlling roughly 40% of the global uranium enrichment market, and supplying about 14% of u.s. uranium. mark nelson from radiant energy telling me this alone will not turn the lights off in the u.s., but it is yet another wake-up call to utilities in america that we need nuclear fuel independence as soon as possible. now, arthur hyde from sector capital, which invests in nuclear stocks, added that this would have very serious implications for the nuclear fuel cycle in the u.s., and that we could see a rush to secure material in what is a traditionally quiet part of the year, adding that this highlights the need to develop western fuel capacity for national security purposes. the ura and you are in in, which track the space, both jumping.

>> interesting, especially as the german chancellor debriefed the press on his phone call with putin. a lot of crosscurrents geopolitically this morning. meantime, elon musk may be leading trump's new department of government efficiency, but not all ofis h political bets have paid off. we will talk about that in two. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

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the announcement by president-elect trump of musk's appointment to a government efficiency office months and millions spent to support trump's re-election bid. that said, not all of musk's political gambles have paid off. emily wilkins joins us now with more. hi, emily. >> sarah, elon musk has emerged as a major winner in the 2024 election, thanks to his support for trump. but if you look at the scorecard in down ballot races, it is little more mixed. of the 18 races that musk's america pac donated to, all of these were for house republicans. of the 14 have been called, five of the candidates backed by musk did not win their re election. he gave 118 million of his own funding to the pack, and about

19 million of that went to congressional races. most of that funding focused on get out the vote efforts, things like phone calls, doorknocking, and musk is already planning to use his pack to help republicans in the 2026 midterms. musk joined trump earlier this week for the house republicans first postelection meeting, and horace mann and the ogles was one of the lawmakers who praised musk during the meeting and said that after the meeting, trump did, as well. >> he had a lot about elon musk, all amazing. elon is good rate american. he has really been at the forefront of the space race, and with his leadership and cutting waste in the government, just as he has taken us to the stars, i think it is the ability to cut and turbocharge this economy. >> musk, of course, stands to greatly benefit from the republican trifecta. one way the republicans have proposed eliminating that ev tax credit for consumers. musk said earlier this year on an earnings call hat ending the credit would hurt tesla a

little bit, but he said it would hurt their competitors more. and guys, of course, with things between taxes and labor law, there will be a lot to watch this congress in terms of exactly what happens. >> absolutely, thank you very much. emily wilkins. speaking of trump and musk, last night they were joined by the first foreign leader to visit president-elect trump, who is the president of argentina. and maybe a good example, as musk gets going, we made this chart for you of the cut in government spending that argentina has undergone since the president took office in the 10 months. they have cut government spending 32%. so, kind of a good model i would say, for musk as they try to take what they call a chainsaw to our federal spending and bureaucracy. by the way, he has also helped bring argentina's inflation below 200%. >> we got some significant weakness in thbrdee oar markets, a lot of that coverage coming up.

when we started feeding bogie the farmer's dog, he lost so much weight. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. in the morning, he flies up the stairs and hops up on my bed. in the past, he would not have been able to do any of those things.

(luke) homes-dot-com is a new, elevated home-shopping he experience.ave been able beautiful design, tremendously rich content. feels like a work of art! (marci) what about the app? (luke) uh-oh! (marci) wow! went all in on gold. (vo) ding dong! homes-dot-com. we've done your home work. good friday morning again. welcome to money movers. i'm sarah eisen, live at post nine for the universal stock exchange.