Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 18, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

3:00 pm
else to do something else on their platform. >> so still a lot of pressure on these companies to do better. and . >> and one of the concerns was with whom might your child be connecting. and they're limiting to who the kids can connect to. does that solve the problem? >> with these age restrictions, it helps a little bit. >> steve, got to leave it there. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. stocks continue to regroup one week after sitting hair latest all-time high. here's a look at scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 getting a modest lift. about 60% of all stocks trading higher on the day. you can see it's up by about 0.4%. the nasdaq is pacing the upside to start the book, carried by tesla, apple, some of the other
3:01 pm
crowd favorites of the nasdaq 100. tesla up almost 4%, apple up almost 2%. we also have a turnabout in semis, with nvidia trading soft into wednesday's earnings release, but the average chip stocks, finding some relief. that's the excess dtf right there. that's been a big underperformer relative to nvidia. now, pressure from the bond and currency markets has eased a bit. the ten-year treasury yield slipping from recent four-month highs. it's down about 4.41%. the dollar index, backing away from the top of a two-year range, as well, on the day. that's allowing for a bounce in struggling commodities. crude oil, lifting by 3%, to start the week. again, that's been depressed in the last several weeks. and gold is firming after a pretty stiff post-election pullback. you can see it up 1.7% on the day. all of that takes us to our talk of the tape. with six weeks left in 2024 and the s&p 500 on pace for a second
3:02 pm
straight 20% annual gain, how does the risk/reward equation break down for the rest of the calendar year. let's ask the panel, lauren goodwin, invesco's brian levitt. they are all thankfully with me here at post nine. good to see everybody. good to see you. lauren, it's a big question of kind of what's changed, how maybe it has changed. how much has the market figured out over the two weeks or so since the election. and where that brings it right now. we're having a little bit of a stop and think moment in the last several days. >> i'm having a stop and think moment right now, thinking about, you just say, there are six weeks left in the year. it's really hard to believe. >> six weeks and one day. >> the market is trying to decide which of the trump trades to fade and which to follow. there's a pretty clear line on this. you follow the trades that are not just supported by potential policy change. we're all going to be going back and forth what's likely over the next couple of months, maybe
3:03 pm
couple of quarters. but follow the trades that are relating to the underlying economic trends that might be centuated with that. these are the trades that i expect are likely to persist. >> you think that there therefore is more upside to things like treasury yields and the dollar at this point? and what does that mean, perhaps for equities? >> i think we should expect to see inflation and interest rates in particular more volatile, as well as higher, over the next several quarters. and that's because we see not only a growth impulse from stronger economic data, but the likelihood that we see policy support from the new administration in those areas. now, in both cases, those dollar treasury yields moving higher are challenging for equities, not just from a valuations perspective, but also from a real economic activity perspective. market rates moving higher, no one pays the fed funds rate, everyone pays some version of the market rate. that can be challenging to economic activity over time. that's why we've seen some of
3:04 pm
the indigestion over the past few days that we've seen. >> avery, it's been fascinating, because even on the up days of the last two weeks, it hasn't been one of these buy everything type of days. on down days, it's a little more mixed. there's rotation going on here. the market is trying to separate out groups that are more or less advantaged in the current moment. where does that bring you, as someone who tries to play both sides? >> i think it's a very dynamic time, because as lauren was saying, from an interest rate perspective, if rates don't go down meaningfully, you have a lot of cyclical stocks that are very expensive, that have been pricing in meaningful rate cuts over the next year. yet you also have other cyclical stocks that are still quite cheap, trading like there might be a recession. and so i think as the data comes in on those less-expensive stocks, if the economic backdrop remains benign, to potentially a bit positive, there's a lot of opportunity for upside. and yet, if you continue to see rates stay higher, i think it could be very challenging, for
3:05 pm
certain areas, specifically, within housing, and certain industrials that are pricing in a real resurgence of demand next year. >> what do you think accounts for that distinction between, okay, some cyclicals the market loves and is willing to pay up for, and some have been left behind? >> i think those that are considered to have strong industry structures, the market just automatically projects any positivity on to. so, for example, people think there's a structural deficit in housing. but actually, affordability is what drives housing, right? we would all love to live in a larger home in the best neighborhood with the biggest yard. >> we don't need more at these prices. >> but -- so, i think that there is real -- but because of the structural argument about housing, housing has gotten a bit -- you have areas in industrials and in transportation where there's considered to be strong industry structure that have gotten a bid. but if that doesn't come to play -- come to fruition, it's going to be tougher. and other areas like airlines.
3:06 pm
which are considered to be one of the worst ies ever, right? but we've had a structural shift in the airline industry that could be very favorable playing out. so those valuations are still very low. >> brian, we can talk a lot about whether there was a pivot point two weeks ago in various policy or not, but leading up to that point, bull market was underway for a couple of years. we were up 60%. earnings were already rising and broadening out. even yields were going higher. we were expecting a little bit less in the way of the fed. in other words, a lot of the stuff that we feel as if the election had a lot of bearing on, we're already underway. what does that mean for you in terms of an investor figuring out if things are played out or there's more to go? >> they were very much underway. in fact, i created a chart early in the year, showing trump v. biden for their thousand days. and they were pretty much sitting on top of each other. so everybody gets all balled up around a change in administrations, but they were sitting right on top of ooemp.e
3:07 pm
other. if you were a member of trump's surprise victory in 2016, you did initially get a e up in rates, you did get defensives over cyclicals. and that faded, and why did that fade, even more so, the certainty around the trade war. defensives outperform. four years later, growth stocks won under trump, under the eight years under barack obama. so therein lies the rub. i think what we're all kind of discussing here, it's almost like a rorschach test. you see a butter fly, i see a sailboat. some people look at it and say, i see tax cuts and deregulation, rates up, cyclicals. others will look at it and say, i see fiscal consolidation, i see tariffs. a lot of uncertainty. hard-to-make industrial policy when you don't understand the rules. that's going to be a weight on economic activity. it's a bit of a challenge, like avery was saying, i go back to the fundamentals.
3:08 pm
leading indicators of the economy are pretty stable, not accelerating. they're pretty stable. fed is going to lower rates, but not as much as we once hoped. and that's why you're seeing a little bit of a shift back to quality and megacaps here. >> to me, the question isn't so much, let's figure out today what all the policy implications are and what the mix is going to be and how it bears on the market, but whether, really, just that hope among a lot of people of relief on taxes, on regulation, you know, more leans y on m&a, if it acts as a psychological cushion, lauren? >> i think there's absolutely a psychological cushion. and that's part of what's making professional investors a little nervous. because, first of all, none of these policies have happened yet, right? so you typically have a little bit of pullback in the election-related trades as the market adapts to, oh, right, we're maybe six months away from a lot of these ideas. but also, we think about tax cuts.
3:09 pm
it's likely that we'll see an extension of the individual tax cuts. beyond that, really, truly, who knows? >> it's not as if the market was carefully pricing in the tax cuts expiring and what that all meant after next year. >> exactly. if you think about the growth impulse that brian is describing, that's an extension of something that already exists. so what type of reacceleration do you get from that? not much. you think about the elements of trade and tariffs, the type of revenue that could bring in. not very much. and you think about the underlying economic environment, relative to 2016, the last time we had a new trump administration. that was a -- we haven't seen inflation very much for 15 years. that's not the environment that we're in now. and so i think that the ai essentially extended the last cycle by a couple of years. and now a lot is looking a little long in the tooth, but there is some of this cyclical backdrop. so i think portfolio construction is becoming more and more into focus.
3:10 pm
investors, even if they expect a good economic backdrop will have to make some portfolio changes to make this next couple of years work. >> avery, if you look at the areas below the surface where the market has really asserted its view that things are going to matter a lot in terms of policy, health care, to the downside, banks to the upside. those have been really the most persistent. do those make sense to you? would you like to push back against either of those? >> certainly. they actually do make sense to me. i think from a banking perspective, you know, the likelihood that basel 3 is pulled back is a certain likelihood. there is some debate, is all m&a going to go through? probably not. there's always a question around consumer finance. will there be more regulations? there's likely to be a lot less credit. so i'm not sure that would actually happen. >> the credit card issuers flew
3:11 pm
on day up with. that late fee cap is going away. >> exactly, exit poll. >> there are these very specific things naupt the economy to be good, the credit system evolved the way it did, because you need to be able to fund the defaults. and on health care, i also do think that it makes sense. rfk really is looking for a new paradigm in food production and health care that has the potential to really revolutionize the health of this country and have very important economic implications for the current companies that are benefitting from that. probably not from the upside, but also from an overall economic perspective, real opportunity for entrepreneur s n healthy food, in nutrition, in health healthy, more preventative types of medicine. rfk has said, for the price that
3:12 pm
we all depend on ozempic and wegovy, for half of that, you could give every american a healthy meal three times a day and every person who needs to lose weight a gym membership. i think he's actually really serious about trying to promote these policies. and so i would be cautious on companies that could be exposed to this, but from an economic standpoint, we're spending over $13,000 per person in this country. talk about a tax on health care. that is a massive de facto tax and we have the worst health outcomes for all developing countries. i think there's a mandate for change that's very exciting, but does have important implications for stocks. >> but don't you have to go all the way, he gets in there, in the job, that he can be effective, within a couple of years and changing the behavior of the average person.
3:13 pm
it feels like, how do you put money behind that? >> changing the behavior of an average person does absolutely take time. but when you have a food supply that is actually toxic, you remove aspects of that food supply, you can make a difference very quickly. i in my own life have seen the difference of food on people's health. >> i do wonder if you could have the other side of it being like, actually, ozempic is a shortcut to doing a lot of those things. >> but rfk does not believe that. >> in general. >> the political will behind this is very significant. musk is behind this just as much as. trump recognizes how he got elected, so we've never seen this level of political will behind this type of movement. and to have people in power who can really make a difference. >> all right. that's an interesting take, because i really do feel as if, you know, if donald trump made the list of the reasons he got elected, i'm not sure like healthy foods is near the top of it. but i know what you're saying in terms of implications of rfk -- >> i mean, why is rfk being appointed for health and human
3:14 pm
services -- >> because he's an anti-vaccinationer, mostly. >> it's make america healthy again. >> brian, you mentioned earlier that you feel like things have migrated us back towards quality and megacap. that is an interesting kind of dichotomy in terms of a quick rally and low-quality, risky stuff, speculative, beta, leverage right after the election. maybe that's a short covering move and mean reversion move. you think we're still in that mode, the quality will continue the outperformance it has? >> i do. and you need some type of catalyst to unlock other parts of the market. usually, what we've been looking for is the rate cut and a reacceleration of economic activity. rate cuts aren't going to be the -- the magnitude is not going to be the same as what many had expected. and we'll see what we get on the policy front. to your point, these things take time. this is not a shovel-ready country, we have found out. and what's the propensity to
3:15 pm
spend your tax cuts? we'll see. i wouldn't be surprised if in '25, we see fed lowering rates and leading indicators picking up again, but i would rather see a little bit more evidence of that right now. for now, i think it still favors the higher qualities. and interestingly, with regards to sector leadership, it is always fun to look at the policy platforms, each of the candidates are or now the incoming administration get a sense of what that means. i'm not sure often it plays out precisely the way people think. one of the examples i used all last year was in 2016, everyone thought traditional energy would outperform. clean outperformed. under biden, everyone thought clean would outperform traditional. so it does depend on the direction of the economy and what the monetary policy authorities are doing. >> lauren, you mentioned that portfolio construction kind of becomes more important now. along what axes does that matter? is it a u.s. versus the rest of the world? right now is a really, really
3:16 pm
loud consensus that u.s. will maintain its advantage, or stocks, bonds, how do you treat fixed income in a portfolio? >> it's all of the above. i mean, for years, we've been talking about an environment where inflation and rates were likely to be a little higher, and potentially a lot more volatile. and how that might be an environment where the quality, large-cap conversation that brian's been having is maybe not a winner, right? you have to put together now major megatrend with respect to not just ai, but the energy and infrastructure that are building it. alongside a very different rate in economic environment. and concerns about debt and deficit moving forward. that's an environment where with a strong economic backdrop, where credit, i believe, is incredibly healthy, but where duration is not necessarily, not at all, really, our favorite place to take risk, because we expect that rate volatility. so credit, but short duration credit. if you want to balance your duration, look at structured
3:17 pm
credit. look at the municipal curve, which funds a lot of the infrastructure we've been talking about. from an equity market perspective, i agree that as we look for the next year or two, we're likely to see, you know, moments where economic growth surprises to the upside. we've been seeing those. but overall, you're looking at growth likely slowing from a very high base closer to the u.s.' long-term trend. that's an environment where large caps are probably going to outperform over a couple of quarters, where megacap tech is still an important part of your portfolio, but balanced with some of the credit dynamic that helps bolster when you have a bad rates day. >> sure. avery, you mentioned the attention on industry structure and dynamics and also m&a gets a longer leash. are there industries that you could look at where you would say, the structure could be improved or fixed, and therefore is an opportunity or vice versa? >> so, i think you could see more m&a in financials in particular. all of these regional banks kind of potentially rolling up over time. people talk a lot about biotech.
3:18 pm
i think the issues in health care make the large pharmaceutical companies and large biotech companies look very inquisitive in their activities. but i would say, also, you know, something that we paid attention to, industries that have changed because of m&a, so one, i have spoken about in the past, the telecommunications industry, with three major players. and we think much stickier plans than people appreciate due to the preponderance of family plans, as well as the long runway that they have for rolling out broadband through fixed wireless and through fiber. so i think, like, that's an industry where m&a has really helped. you have inexpensive stocks. and they're not as rate sensitive, they're not as economically sensitive. it's nice to have ts of the portfolio that deliver a yield around 5% or even more with buybacks for all three players where you don't have to be constantly worrying about where rates are going tomorrow. >> that's true. that's an interesting
3:19 pm
combination there. great conversation. hit a lot. thanks a lot, lauren, avery, and brian. let's send it over to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. kristina, hello. >> hello. shares of silver maker super microcomputer have been getting crushed over the last month, down over 50%, amid a list of problems. but you can see the stock up 27% today on hopes that it could avoid one of those problems. that would be a nasdaq delisting. despite an almost 20% year-to-date stock drop, baird analysts urge investors not to overlook roku shares. their new bullish note on the streaming service highlights roku's long-term potential in the streaming industry. they have bumped up their price target to 90 bucks from $70, and shares are up almost 7% on that note. mike? >> kristina, thank you. see you again in just a moment. we are just getting started. up next, goldman sachs sung so is here to break down what he's expecting from nvidia's earnings this week and what's at stake
3:20 pm
for the tech sector in the year ahead. we're live fm e w yo rothnerk stock exchange, you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪)
3:21 pm
3:22 pm
drop everything and get some magic of your own the world's most traded etf. during the xfinity black friday sale. xfinity internet customers, our best deals of the year are back! switch to xfinity mobile and get your choice of a free 5g phone, plus your next unlimited line free for a year. get amazing savings and connect to wifi speeds up to a gig
3:23 pm
on the go with xfinity mobile. fly don't walk to get our best deals of the year. connect to the world of wicked this holiday, only in theaters november 22nd. tech trying to rebound after the nasdaq's worst week in two months, as investors brace for nvidia earnings later this week. our next guest is looking through the skplilt volatility more opportunity for tech in the year ahead. sung so joins me now. so stock is like backing off a just a little bit here. a lot of noise around the pacing of blackwell and all the rest of it. what's your read on what embedded expectations are for nvidia and how it's prepared? >> certainly, expectations for it to beat.
3:24 pm
and i think in some ways, the reason why expectations are so high is because the cloud companies have actually given us nvidia's earnings already. it's like 50% of every dollar of capex is being spent on an nvidia gpu. cloud capex went up by 9% this quarter, in aggregate. so we expect fairly high bar for them beating. that's what they sell, right? and so, like, the key to watch is going to be around blackwell, right? blackwell is a next generation platform. and some early indicators around that are very, very positive. and we're going to continue to watch that. >> so you have this report this morning or overnight about how maybe there's a little bit of a log jam in installations of blackwell, because of overheating issues. we've known that this was something that had to be figured out. at the same time, a bigger picture debate seems to me over the last several weeks happening about whether the pacing of improvement in the ai models is sufficient at this point to
3:25 pm
justify that much more. let's say 2026 levels of further investment. >> let me hit on both of them. so blackwell, this is their first foray into doing something beyond just semiconductors, right? it's not just semiconductors they're selling, but an entire system solution. obviously, there's going to besup and downs, because this is a relatively new foray for them. but this is one of the best executing companies out there. and we have no doubt a they'll be able to solve the issues over time. your second question. >> about the large language models, how the next generation is really not showing the same pace of improvement. >> that's the report that we saw. >> yeah, yeah. >> so in some ways, you can spin that as a positive, right? these guys are not going to stop trying to improve. >> in other words, some say, we've invested this much, even if it's slowing down, we have to invest more. >> i think that's a great big debate in the market right now. everybody is looking around. we've spent half a trillion dollars on ai infrastructure. everyone is looking around saying, where are all the applications or the used cases
3:26 pm
for this. or the roi. the natural conclusion is that there must be some kind of slowdown coming. i think what people are missing is that these cloud companies are investing for their existential relevance over the next 20 years. do you think google or amazon want to be your second or third best out there? so they're ressing ahead, and i think there's a question about roi is a good one, but i think there are other factors at play right now. >> at the same time, you've seen this recent burst of outperformance of software names, like non-nvidia semis. does that seem like it's sustainable? and what do you think is behind that? >> so i think it's really, really interesting, the set-up for software. we're really bullish software as we go into 2025. software has been one of the worst-performing sectors over the last couple of years. and it's a combination of high interest rates, weaker fundamentals, and some secular concerns around what ai is going to do to software, right? but we think that the non-ai parts of software are really set to be down this year, and we saw
3:27 pm
it from results like cisco. cisco reported positive bookings for the first time. you have the ai ecosystem and the non-ai ecosystem. and we're starting to see positive momentum which should be bullish for a lot of the software companies. >> it doesn't have to be one or the other, but does it mean there's going to be this shadow over other semis for a wile, because of trade concerns or just the cycle? >> i don't think so. i think it's starting point matters. semis have massively outperformed software as a starting point. they've benefited from the build out of these ai infrastructure. and at the margin, there's some softening and some concern. what you saw last week, one of the biggest rotations, software versus semis, is really just a function of the starting point. >> and you know, we're at a moment where a lot of the themes people are most focused on almost seem like they're separate from tech, right? it's about the various policy things, it's about whether the cycle accelerates from here in
3:28 pm
terms of the economy. where do you think the buy side is set up in terms of, okay, everyone was a little crowded in the midpoint of the year. where are we now? >> there's a lot of enthusiasm, some of your prior guests have talked about ai infrastructure. there's a lot of enthusiasm around that. those stocks have been some of the biggest performers. i was on this show last time talking about ge three months ago. that's been a great stock. so we continue to see upside in that group, but it's not the ginormous upside we've seen in the past. we're going back to the mag 7. the mag 7 has retreated a little bit. >> microsoft has done very little, for months. >> i think there's a little bit of this enthusiasm around non-mag-7 stocks. but we're starting to see more opportunities on the mag 7 side. one of the names we're getting increasingly very bullish on is facebook and meta. right now, the market have been heart, very focused on who can bill the post powerful and strongest model. but ultimately, the market is going to fixate on what models are actually getting used.
3:29 pm
and lama, if you look at the fortune 1,000 companies, lama is being used by nearly 40% of them. they're winning. they're winning. >> not to mention it's you'd internally at meta every day. >> so there's a tremendous amount of momentum. if you look across the mag-7, and you say, who has the potential to be able to tap into a massive you addressable market, we think it's meta. >> all right. been a pretty popular stock, see if it can carry on from here. thanks very much. >> appreciate it. up next, the parade of retail earnings kicks off tomorrow. we'll hear from star retail analyst matt boss with what he'll be watching from walmart, target, and much more. "closing bell" will be right back. easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades
3:30 pm
and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.
3:31 pm
do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or
3:32 pm
call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.
3:33 pm
welcome back. getting some crypto news that's just breaking. kate rooney has that for us. hi, kate. >> we've got a couple of crypto headlines here. i'll start first with a report from the "financial times" that donald trump's social media company is in advanced talks to buy bakt, owned by the new york stock exchange parent company as truth social does look to expand beyond online conversations. again, this is according to the ft. the media group here, has -- is owned by president-elect donald trump. and according to this report, is closing in on an all-share purchase of that crypto exchange. they're citing two people familiar with those talks. we've reached out to both
3:34 pm
companies, but you can see shares of trump media up by more than 8%. bakkt was up more than 40%, but is now halted for volatility. separately, "wall street journal" now reporting that president-elect trump is meeting with the ceo of crypto exchange coinbase, brian armstrong, "the journal" here citing people familiar with the matter. they are expected to discuss person appointments to his second administration. trump has been an avid backer of crypto. he's showed up at some of these crypto conferences, and talking to brian armstrong about the fcc commissioner, in particular, armstrong has backed publicly hester pierce as a potential fc kplirks, mike. a couple headlines to bring you there. we don't see shares of coinbase moving on that. >> we have bitcoin itself up close to $92,000, a couple of percent. good to get that. and we'll sure check in with you on that a bit later.
3:35 pm
it's a big week for retailers on wall street. gap and ross stores all getting ready to post results. joining me is jpmorgan's matt boss. good to see you. >> great to be back, mike. the backdrop is, i guess the consumer continues to kind of be resilient and consumer confidence levels have gone up a little bit post-election. on the other hand, maybe got some tariff questions, but just more specifically, in terms of potential winners and losers, this earnings season, what has your focus? >> so, you nailed it on the resiliency of the consumer. i would actually make the argument, and it's 2025, the wealth effect is material. we calculate $54 trillion in wealth that's been created since 2019. you have the equity gains, you have housing, and on top of it, even dynamics such bitcoin are important for the middle income consumer. it's the low end, where as you cited, that's where there's still a bit more pleasure in terms of the inflationary pressure that remains at peak.
3:36 pm
that's where the tariff dynamic could bring a wild card to watch. but into earnings, it's value and convenience, off pricers we think stand very solidly. and we're looking at the global brands. we're looking for global brands with a discount that can compound. berkenstock, lululemon, i would put tapestry in that camp, ralph lauren. a number of different opportunities. >> those would seem to be obviously beneficiaries of the wealth effect and generally flush consumer. and when the value changes, it seems like that's been a consistent story for so long. look at a tjx and it trade at this premium valuation, and kohl's is at 0.1 times sales. below a $2 billion market cap. can that keep diverging in that way? >> what we have coined this as, as a selective recession. where you have the high-income consumer where the dollars are plentiful, and the low-income consumer is hold back, but nearly 50% of consumption is
3:37 pm
coming from the high end. that's the consumer that matters. that's where that $54 trillion in opportunity. that consumer is being choiceful. that consumer is still shopping for value. now if you can see stabilization at the low end, that would be the next leg for off-price retailers, which burlington would be your growth story, tjx would be your compounder. i wouldn't forget about ollie's as well more in small cap. >> burlington, maybe it's a totally outdated conception, but there has been this weather dynamic at work. >> near-term, we were without with a preview today on 3x. the weather has been stuff. if you're trying to sell outer wear, it's been golf weather nearly every day. >> in the whole country. >> precisely. >> some outliers, we raised numbers on burlington into the print coming up.
3:38 pm
abercrombie is setting up for a beat. as you noted, kohl's, we took numbers down. bath and body works, we took numbers down i think it's a mixed bag with winners and losers. for the fourth quarter, i go back to some of these macro factors. and to me i think holiday is going to be robust. we're meteorology 2 to 3% across abarrel. that's basically back to pre-pandemic, and that's where we now have this set-up. we're normal i'd, you have the brick and mortar relative to ecommerce growth that's normalized. what matters going forward is consumer confidence with now the election behind us and what do some of these drivers look like for the high and low income in '25? >> we have heard plenty of commentary about some retailers trying to get ahead of potential tariff impacts. is that going to start to be material in one direction or another? >> it's a great point. across our coverage, china exposure on the sourcing side is
3:39 pm
down roughly 700 basis points in the last four years. a number of retailers and brands across our coverage have really moved their feet in anticipation of this potential outcome. now, looking forward to, me, it always comes down to pricing power. as i look across the space, athletic, active with innovation. handbags, where you can evaluate that. and a number of brands in the u.s. have really been on this value spectrum. so i think in a scenario, if tariffs do, in fact, happen, as are being proposed. i think what you would want to avoid would be companies battling on price. but companies with a quality value perception today, i think that there's meaningful opportunity for price increases, as long as you can back it up with profit. >> i assume, you mentioned lulu. i assume it kind of covers a lot of those things you mentioned in there. but i guess you feel as if whatever competitive issues have been discounted? >> i think the real key is if
3:40 pm
you go back, 18 months ago, their creative designer passed away. they took a very econservative posture with newness, as a result. and that's what you see on the floor today, as the calendar turns into early '25, you have a catalyst with newness, a catalyst in addition on sizing. and the innovation ramps as well as the marketing. i think you're already starting to see it in the fourth quarter. i think the inflection for return growth in north america is in the front half of '25, and then it scales into the back half of '25 and 26. competition to your point is fierce, but i think lulu is still a winner multi-year. >> interesting. we've shown that chart, likes like we would have some room to run. >> great to be on. appreciate it. >> up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. christina standing by with those. >> we have an activist investor winning board seats. and details on that new deal, next.
3:41 pm
♪♪ i got my (bleep) together. the whole class knows i got my (bleep) together. you can get your shots together too. ask your healthcare provider about getting this season's covid-19 shot when getting your flu shot, if you're due for both, as recommended by the cdc. ♪♪
3:42 pm
3:43 pm
3:44 pm
less than 16 minutes until the closing bell. let's get to kristina for a look at the key stocks to watch. >> cvs shares popping today after it struck a deal with glenview capital for four board seats, that comes after months of pressure from investors to boost shareholder value,
3:45 pm
glenview ceo larry robins, who will get one of those, told "squawk on the street," that they have to reverse losses from its medicare advantage losses. listen in. >> we think that the board members that are adjoining, particularly guy, leslie, and doug bring tremendous operating experience, tremendous health care experience. and can be helpful, as the board unifies insider to try to improve the execution on this phenomenal collection. >> warner brothers discovery also in the green after it reached a settlement with the nba over a breached contract. they will not receive a live package in the u.s., but will receive some international rights and free access to those highlights. you can see shares up almost 3%, mike. >> all right. kristina, thank you. still ahead, robinhood stocks soaring. we'll tell you what's behind that big bounce. that's coming up on the bell
3:46 pm
honey... but the gains are pumping! the market's closed. futures don't sleep in the after hours, bro. dad, is mommy a “finance bro?” she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest. ♪ snow day by caitlyn smith ♪ celebrate the journeys that bring us closer together. the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is back with offers on vehicles like the 2025 glc suv.
3:47 pm
now through january 2nd. (vo) sail through the heart of historic cities and unforgettable scenery with viking. unpack once, and get closer to iconic landmarks, local life, and cultural treasures. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there.
3:48 pm
viking. exploring the world in comfort.
3:49 pm
deadline in five! finished and sent. [sending swoosh] we have tight turnarounds. at&t business helps us deliver. okay! client wants his head bigger. wow, fast response. sent! okay, oop! even bigger. sent. [sending swoosh, notification alert] still bigger. okay, yeah i'm not doing that— [typing noises, sending swoosh] i think it still looks good! [notification alert] oh — even bigger. >> . > up next, we'll tell you what's driving uber shares lower today. that is in the market zone, next.
3:50 pm
ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
3:51 pm
let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪
3:52 pm
power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.
3:53 pm
e*trade from morgan stanley >> we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. robinhood hitting a three-year high today. kate rooney has more on that move. plus, deirdre bosa on why good news for tesla is taking down shares. kate, quite a move in robinhood here on this analyst call. >> yeah, mike, up about 10% today. it's been continuing this post-election rally. we've seen in robinhood. that analyst upgrade, though, appears to be the driver today, so you had needham upgrading robinhood to a buy, about 40% upside baked into that call today. analysts over there writing that robinhood is positioned to be a
3:54 pm
major beneficiary, they say, of more positive regulation within the crypto space, while emerging as a leader in its equity and options offering. they also point out that robinhood has had to kind of play it safe on some of the product offerings to try to avoid enforcement action from the s.e.c., but under a new s.e.c. chair with president-elect donald trump, that could allow the brokage firm to launch products a bit faster without fear of retribution. they were issued a wells notice by gensler's s.e.c. on crypto in particular. it has been reported also that dan gallagher, robinhood's chief legal officer is now leading the short list for trump's s.e.c. chair. the stock already up about 180% so far this year, mike. >> kate, in fact, the chart, since its ipo is extraordinary at this point. we mentioned it's a three-year high. it did trade much higher in that initial burst of enthusiasm. but all that you've laid out there really does underscore it's basically a crypto proxy right now. as much as robinhood talks about
3:55 pm
retirement assets and all the rest of it, that seems to be how it trade. >> 1 hurkds%, mike. it's been interesting to watch the juxtaposition between some of the product offerings, whether it's options and derivatives and them getting into an interactive broker side of the business, and the more professional kind of boring side of the business. we've talked about this a bit, them looking a little bit more like a bank, while, as you said, they are really a high-growth almost meme stock-tied name at this point. you have crypto and djt picking up in the volatility. in you zoom out since the ipo, it's really -- it went through sort of a high during the pandemic and gamestop, interest rates started to go up, and it tells quite the story if you zoom out there. >> it's a high-volatility play on other high-volatility plays, essentially, kate. all right, thank you. deirdre, uber, pretty high-volume sell-off today. >> yes. and you know what, this is ant new story, but i'll tell it to you through a stock chart.
3:56 pm
look at uber and tesla's share performance over the last few months, especially through the end of october, they really moved in opposite directions, largely on this idea that a robo taxi fleet from tesla would bypass the existing rideshare apps and come for their customers with self-driving cars. a better regulatory landscape is thought that it could speed up that disruption. still, though, it is a big stretch. even if there is more favorable federal framework, tesla still needs proven technology, and its fsd software, still far from fully autonomous. the bigger, less-appreciated threat to uber and lyft is waymo, which is right now delivering over 150 paid ride per week. waymo is partnering with uber in its next expansion markets, austin and atlanta, but it is not clear that waymo needs a platform versus using its own, which again, it is doing very successfully here in san francisco and expanding very quickly. >> it really is fascinating, because right now, uber, of
3:57 pm
course, is a solidly profitable company. this is an $8 billion swing lower in market cap, based on these things that may happen way down the road. >> well, the tesla may happen down the road. waymo robo taxi fleet, even though it's 700 vehicles, but they're delivering 150,000 rides per week. that is the clear and present threat. the bull case is that uber and lyft could be fleet managers and that these robo taxis would sit on top of these apps. but mike, i remember when uber and lyft used to say that they needed to create the app. waymo has been able to do so, just fine here in san francisco. so it's still just kind of push and pull. we don't need to know where it's already here. >> the market is questioning that first mover advantage. thank you very much, "d." pippa, we have some personnel moves for the department of energy. >> that's right, mike. we are seeing shares of two energy stocks jumping after
3:58 pm
president-elect trump's nomination of shell executive chris wright for energy secretary. he's the founder and ceo of oil field services company, liberty energy, and also sits on the board of directors of oak glow, the small modular nuclear reactor company that's banked by sam altman. wrooig is aligned with trump's call to increase fossil fuel production. and the executive has said, quote, there is no climate crisis, and we're not in the midst of an energy transition. now, energy is the top s&p sector today and every component in the green, led to the upside by qte, diamondback, and halliburton. one of the new actions could be a pause on ng permits, but it isn't directly controlled by the doe. but the energy secretary has an outsized role and can make recommendations. that is part of the reason why we're seeing that response in oil and gas stocks. >> pippa, would there be a
3:59 pm
mirror image effect on the alternative energy plays? obviously, there's been some move, a suggestion calling back some of the green energy-type money given wright's stated suspicion of that side of things. >> that is definitely an open question here. what's interesting about wright is that liberty energy has not been investing in things like direct air capture and carbon capture that other majors like shell, exxon, chevron, and oxy have all invested in it. they don't have the same skin in the game, as it were. which does speak to a little bit of wright's thinking for the industry. but on the flip side, a lot of these renewable projects are now economics driven. there are a lot that say that wile the incentives are nice to have at this point, it is not a need to have. the other thing is the most impactful incentives, the ict and pct, those were in existence before the inflation reduction act. so everyone i speak to say that those look pretty safe. >> and certainly not under the direct command of the energy secretary in any case, i assume. pippa, thank you very much. all right.
4:00 pm
as we head about 30 seconds 'til the close. you see the s&p 500 is up a little more than one third of 1%. fairly narrow range all day. the dow ust below the flat line. nasdaq is up 0.6%, thanks in part to moves in tesla. you did see a big pop in crude >> that will do it for closing bell. [ bell ringing ] that bell marks the end of regular booking. berkeley rang the bell. mixed session for averages with the dow closing lower, most s&p sectors closing in the green. all but one, tesla giving a boost to nasdaq. but, welcome to closing well overtime. coming up this hour nvidia. the company's new black well chips we will talk about what it means for t

29 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on