i like this entry point. >> we have been talking about animal spirits returning to the markets. i think small caps are great way to play it. >> crowdstrike is still down 10% from its high. that doesn't today for halftime with still a mixed market. the s&p slightly higher in the dow slightly lower. the exchange starts now. thank you and welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans. here is what's ahead. tensions of the ukrainian russian were sent stocks lower but major averages are. the losses. the s&p and nasdaq are now positive. we will talk about what trump 2.0 could do for the region. supermicro shares are searching 36% after they found an auditor.

nvidia is another leader ahead of earnings. keybank see some headwinds on the horizon. we are in the thick of retail earnings. not just the big box we will also here from off-price stores. bank of america has the ones to buy including the mystery chart. it has underperformed and they see issues ahead but they remain bullish. let's start with the markets and look at how we got to these averages to the point at which they are trading this afternoon. we had headlines and concerns emanating from russia saying ukraine fired missiles that the u.s. approved just days ago. the dow is only down 135 right now. the s&p backup over 5900. half-point gain for the nasdaq and the ten-year yields lower. this is the lowest we have seen in the past week. shares of walmart are hitting new highs after they reported

better than expected results. we talked about what they need to do. they cleared the bar. gross margins were slightly weaker than expected. the cfo told us they might have to raise prices on some items if tariffs take affect but it's too soon to say which ones. a different story for lows which is falling. they also raised full-year guidance and its outlook for comps but management flanked continued softness in bigger ticket diy spending. i also want to mention bit coin. it is popping above 92 sounds and -- thousand. this comes as options on the trust have $42 billion in assets. those options start trading today. that among a few different catalysts being entioned. the etf is also higher. rising tensions between russia

and ukraine initially weighed on the market. vladimir putin moving to formally lower the threshold for use of your weapons. we have those details from washington. >> reporter: the kremlin said russian leader vladimir putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine including the possibility that moscow could conduct a nuclear strike if attacked by a non-nuclear country that has support of a nueaat that obviously fits the description of the ukraine and the united states. it follows a ukrainian strike on russian territory using u.s. supplied long-range weapons that hit a military facility. russian authorities said that air defenses shot down five missiles but fragments of another fell on the technical territory of a military facility. i reached out to a retired cia

operations officer with extensive experience. his take on this is that putin is engaging with theatrics and that this newly approved ukrainian offensive capability is too late to change the outcome of the war but still helpful in the endgame. he said it may help trump stop the war because russian forces have failed to drive the ukrainian forces out of russia. that provides ukraine with leveraging future negotiations. the capability is meant to help ukraine hold onto russian territory they had seized. just a note that zelenskyy is clearly thinking about the endgame as well. he posted on social media we must end the war. with possible

endgame to the war. stocks are bouncing back after initially dropping on the news of those developments. my next guest is staying bullish and says the market is not as long and the truth as some may think. let's bring in neil hennessy. welcome. was in investor day that brought you here? >> i'm giving a talk to 50 reporters about what we see for next year. >> so we can jump the gun on that. just a week or so ago somebody on this program is mid caps. i'm sure you would agree with that. be other times not so much but why do you think your performance this year has been pretty impressive. what is making this work so well? >> mid caps have always worked well. i've been in the business for 45 years so that is long in the tooth but not the market.

essentially a mid-cap is normally economically strong enough to whether a tsunami but they are also big enough to get a small-cap stock or company. they are big enough to be accreted to a larger company. that is the sweet spot. you have to find value. when you find it in the thing or someplace else going forward? >> most people thought the easy money was to be made there. they've done quite well but so have you. >> we look for market caps between $1 billion and $10 billion. sales ratio between 1.5 or less. we won't pay more than $1.50 for one dollar in sales. higher earnings and we couple that with momentum and then get the 30 best companies and hold them for a year so emotion is

completely erased. >> we are showing some of the top only. it's the wide variety. i'm assuming that is the bottler, not actual coca-cola. some of the names you like alaska airlines, post, kb homes . >> the price to sales ratio is .8. they pay one dollar and dividend. plenty of room to raise it. the post you are talking about a price to sales ratio of .8 or whatever and same way with alaska airlines. i've been flying alaska airlines although it is done by formula the service has been plenty good. i am happy that we own it. >> how is the main fund this year? >> 38%.

>> many people would probably think you have to on those to get that kind of performance. >> if you look at the nasdaq it's up about 25%. you take the stocks out of that and it's up about five or 6%. understand that hennessy mid- cap 30. last year when it was a 30% for this year because we are looking for deep value and that's where the market is going to go. >> you make me think very differently about everything that is going on. the typical narratives around the market are that it is expensive. should the individual investor ignore all the noise and do well in the long term >> are you worried about overvaluation? do you approach it differently? >> i think what they have done is put everything in the kitchen sink. nvidia is going to the dow jones. technology will be 25% of the

dow jones. if you have microsoft, apple, amazon, those stocks control where the dow goes. we've seen in the past three years when they all run they all run. when they all come down they come back. go back to 2022, just two years ago they were down 50%. the question is, do you buy an index? i say absolutely not. it is in a stock pickers gain? yes. just because the market goes down 1000 points does not mean every stock goes down. >> why did you end up in the mid-cap space? what has been the worst environment and climate for mid- cap performance? >> there really has not been a bad time in my 45 years. there has been some rough

times. i can go back most recently to president obama's administration which was very tough on regulation and put more barriers in front of companies. i have never really looked at the indexes. i am here to make the shareholder money at the end of the day. if i lose to an index that does not bother me. what would bother me is if i be an index and lost 25% of your money. >> let me ask this differently now that we may be entering another deregulatory phase. to define the mid-cap stock performance really struggle? >> not necessarily, but more importantly if you are going to deregulate things or industries you are really talking about tech and automation of cars and whatever people are speculating on. all you can do is for the long-term you buy quality and

hang onto it, you will be fine. it's no different than a marriage. you find the right person and hang onto them and it saves you a lot of money in the long term. >> we will leave it there. always a pleasure. let's pivot to those chips we were just discussing. supermicro is up 29% as they try to maintain their nasdaq listing with a new auditor. nvidia is rising ahead of tomorrow's earnings. the next guest is bullish but said there are a few factors that could limit things. john, what could constrain the growth story? >> i think they will report very strong earnings. i think there are limits of guidance. there's a number of factors there.

we think there are constraints in the china market. china is really pushing the hyper scalars in the china market to use more domestic solutions. there's compliance that will get pushed out. the transition to blackwell the next generation gpu. some of these customers are opting to push out their orders for hopper in exchange for blackwell. lastly, from a supply chain perspective nvidia recently made a decision to sweep -- switch their power vendor and i think that is creating near- term bottlenecks which could limit how many of these that they can shove in. >> on trying to figure out if we should gain out what can happen with earnings our weather we should look longer- term, ignore the noise of the week and try to figure out where the stock will be in six months

>> i believe in the near-term nvidia still remains extremely well positioned to grow outsized earnings next year. our numbers for 2025 are well above consensus. black hole represents a pretty significant operating cycle because they will be shipping much higher asp solutions versus simply shipping gpu cards. >> i see the figures you are referencing. the price target is 180 right now. what about the rest of the space? do we even talk about supermicro? >> obviously they are a customer of nvidia. we like several other chip vendors in the space. it is still a very expansive space. more than one vendor stands to and if it from chip growth.

>> would you delve into some of those. i hate to call them second-tier but how much potential upside is that based on what you see happening here into 2025. >> i think the a.i. chip sector stands to grow pretty significantly next year. i think there will be three drivers. nvidia is a key driver but we also like amd because we like the primary second source alternative. in the history of technology there has never been a sustained monopoly. customers are always looking for second source alternatives. we think amd stands to benefit there. hyper scalars like aws and google are making their own a.i. chips. one of the best place on that opportunity will be a company like my belt. >> before you go what are your parting thoughts on intel?

>> intel is in a pretty challenging situation. they are losing share on a lot of fronts. they just went through a major restructuring which obviously hit their r&d. they were challenged to begin with and lastly they are still pretty much a nonfactor in the a.i. space. that is one of the fastest growing sectors today. without any set of compelling a.i. stories it will be tough for them going forward. >> it is sad to see them rotated out of the dow as they try to sort this out. thank you for joining us. don't miss a first on cnbc interview with the qualcomm executive. that will be around 4:00 eastern. still to come we are checking in with the head of one of the largest homebuilders in the country.

food companies are underperforming since election day as investors worry rfk jr. could mean significant policy changes in the package good space. we will look at the names most exposed to potential legislation. the exchanges back after this. (♪♪) (♪♪)

(♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪)

housing starts and building permits came in later than expected in october with single- family driving the decline. that reflects a spike in mortgage rates we had but homebuilders could have more trouble ahead. diana joins us to explain. they've been doing quite well by all accounts. >> they have but i want to start with that market-rate chart. the average rate on the 30 year fixed started in october on 6.2%. it shot up over 7% by the end of the month. the expectation for builders was that rates would go down. that is why they frontloaded by stocking up on a lot of lumber last year. so much so that prices by summer dropped sharply everywhere and at the south were at the lowest level in 50 years. lumber prices now are spiking up roughly 20% from a year ago. i spoke with forrest executive

advisors who said it is several fact there's. nelson the south and canada shut down dropping north american capacity by 7%. they double tariffs on softwood lumber lumber futures are way up . that's because while builders are still concerned the builder confidence got a boost from the republican sweep in the election. they promise to open up federal land. they are promising more tariffs on top of the tariffs already in place that could really hurt the builders. >> that is interesting. do we put the tariffs on on august? >> that low price that we saw?

>> it was part of the policy in place. they'd been in the process but were raised in august. >> all of this contributing to a higher lumber price. thank you. we appreciate it. let's hear from a builder on the current state of housing. doug bauer is the ceo of try point homes a premium builder in 10 states. good to have you. welcome. >> thank you for having me on. >> what would you say are the top three items on your concern list? >> going into the new year we saw the back half as we reported in the third quarter a lot of volatility and interest rates as we mentioned in the election. that caused a lot of hesitation. our feeling is that hesitation will turn into pretty robust spring selling season. as we go into the new year we

are fairly optimistic about where the consumer is. there is plenty of demand out there. there is a lot of things we can talk about with the incoming administration as well. >> let's do it. do you expect it will have an impact on what is going on with construction workers? tariffs? where does your head go? >> i think there's a number of things. the corporate tax rate is going to remain flat or go down. so that is a positive. on the regulatory standpoint, i think there's going to be reform at the department of energy level as well as possibly the environmental side of the equation. the last thing is the financial markets and the banks are going to deal with a lot less regulation. the economic windfall from that as you see

the banks are more encouraged to put dollars into all businesses. especially the land and land development business to small and medium-sized builders. we do not have an issue with financing, but opening the spigot will help the industry as a whole. you will probably see more m&a as you go forward to 25 and beyond. >> so you are seeing this. it reminds me of what our guest said yesterday that retail earnings accelerated under trump's first administration. because they had tax cuts put in place before the tariffs which were ahead on the margin but not in a major way. do you think the same could happen now? >> i think so for sure. i think there will be a positive business and economic effect from this incoming administration out a number of levels.

some of the major banks have talked about that as well. >> that being he case how much of an issue might it be if there's any loss of workers? or do you think that is not a big risk >> >> this whole discussion on deportation, it's pretty early in the discussion. i think we really don't know the overall effect. will it be focused more on criminals and so forth? whatever is done i think it will be done lawfully and so forth. as a larger builder, we have had no issues with the labor side of the equation this year. frankly, as you look back on the trump years we had no issue with labor. i think on the margin it's not going to be a big deal. >> this was a fun idea that came out of the discussion yesterday. a thought experiment of what whatever happen if we did

stimulus checks for people to put their homes on the market. to unlock inventory that way. the problem is the payment would have to be so large because what will you move into with rent where they are in home prices across the country the way they are a lot of people feel like they have no way to go. >> as i listen to some of it yesterday, affordability is a big phrase. we don't have a demand issue in the u.s. we have a supply issue. you mentioned just a second ago there's two ways to affect supply. if interest rates came down the resale market would unlock. so far we have seen the builders take a 30% market share of all sales in the u.s. compared to a 13 or 14% normal level. if interest rates came down that would be a good thing to

create more supply and competitive pricing pressure in the resale market. at the new homebuilding level it is not going to be done at the federal level with all due respect. this is a state and local issue . there's a lot of regulations that i have talked about for years that are really pulling back the supply of land that can be entitled that we could build more affordable housing. so those are the two aspects that will help make housing more affordable. >> sure. i'm not sure who's purview that falls under. i'm trying to think who would land typically. if you were the czar of increasing housing supply given the state and local problems he mentioned what would be the first couple of things he would do? >> i would definitely work with the state and local governments

to provide incentives from maybe the federal level to encourage them to increase supply. i will pick on the state of california one of the biggest impediments and why housing is so expensive in california is the california environmental quality act. it's a platform for groups to stop development. if you were to hold it back and the government work together, we would increase the supply of land to build more affordable housing. it's not a demand issue. we don't need to give money to people to get houses. we need to unleash the supply to build more affordable housing. >> everybody says not in myspace. even if you unlock federal land a lot of that is rural. it's a thorny problem. >> it is. we will see if there's any

moves to try to fix it in the administration to come. we appreciate your time. >> doug bowers, the ceo of tri pointe. just over two months before trump takes office the justice department is seeking a sale of chrome. for any reason. (animatronic santa) look at me! i am festive! when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan

that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you. one that fits your

needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer.

good afternoon and welcome back. new york prosecutors told the judge in donald trump's hush money case is sentencing should be postponed while his lawyers file your arguments asking for the case to be dismissed. the judge needs to sign off on the proposal. he was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in association with payments of hush money to a former star. an unidentified hacker has gained access to a computer file including damaging testimony of former congressman matt gaetz.

it is said to include sworn testimony of a woman who said she had sexual relations with gaetz in 2017 when she was just 17. it would appear the hacker has not made the information public. the atomic energy agency said iran has enriched its pile of uranium to near weapons grade levels. they offered not to expand the stockpile and inspect is verified that tehran started to take measures to cap reduction. back to you. >> thank you so much. coming up, food companies have been underperforming since election day. general mills is down 9%. after the break, the names that are most exposed to legislation under the new administration. let's get in some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell the story. it is roadblocks moving higher

after new updates for parental controls including daily screen time limits and content maturity settings. remember hindenburg research revealed a short in the position alleging roblox inflated certain metrics calling it a pedophile hellscape for kids. >> the big release we did on monday was well in the works and well in the planning prior to this report. as i highlighted we are shifting safety and civility up dates constantly. on the content side, we have strong controls in place. we are constantly scanning all of the content on the site, immediately taking down things a not appropriate. we're harnessing breakthrough innovations to increase production in the u.s. gulf of mexico. our latest deepwater development, anchor, produces previously inaccessible oil and natural gas,

allowing us to deliver the energy we all need today so everyone can follow their own road. that's energy in progress. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!!

the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

welcome back to the exchange. rfk jr.'s plan to make america healthy again to be a problem for companies that make ultra processed foods or use artificial dyes. grotius like kroger and albertsons could see a boost because of fresh produce.

bernstein echoing that sentiment and pointing out the plan to restrict the use of snap payment to be at greater risk to benefits than food. these are the most exciting times the industry has had a maybe 20 years. the most potential for people. is this ust a lot of noise. >> i think this is very real. we have seen upheaval and concerns about the weight loss drugs. now we have a change in administration with a surprise potential appointment to hhs. it will be interesting to see who gets appointed secretary of agriculture. it will be very telling about how serious the administration is. it will be interesting to see how the next weeks, months, and years play out. >> who is most at risk do you think? >> i think obviously the

confectionery companies. i would also say ultra processed food and the sugary snack space and the junk food areas are likely to be most exposed. >> to you think those companies, we are running through hershey, mccormick, i've heard mccormick can benefit because when you are cooking fresh food you need to put spices on their to make it taste good. >> cooking from scratch is something that a lot of people learned almost for the first time during the pandemic. it was a big feature of the landscape with lower income consumers finding ways to make their food dollars last longer. i think if rfk's track record actually translates into what we could see in the next administration there could be more encouragement to use less heavily processed foods. >> to give some examples pepsi

owns doritos and she does. kellogg's has froot loops, her she has jolly ranchers. a lot of people have been doing the research on why the froot loops in europe and canada are made of healthier ingredients. the consumers demanded it. could this be an inflection point? kennedy might not get confirmed but no matter what happens the public is really truly saying please give us a healthier selection of ingredients. >> it is almost similar to what we saw 10 years ago when we had the genetically modified labeling. a lot of media coverage of issues with heavily processed foods and packaged food volumes. if we do see a lot of increased

coverage, potentially even doctors starting to tell their patients more about what they should be eating and avoiding it is that awareness and education that could make all the difference. >> there is a great book called ultra processed foods. that predates everything and is still out there changing people's minds. are there opportunities? do these selloffs or potential changes at these companies tell you there's a couple of areas that could do quite well if you pick up the stocks? >> i do like mccormick. it's my favorite name at the moment because of the healthy eating and the spices and herbs component of that. there's a number of companies with emergence overseas. i think at the moment we are looking at food about as washed out as it has been in the 20

years i've been covering the space. there has been conversations about potentially how if we do see problems with the deportation playing out that could affect labor in the fruit and vegetable and meat and dairy chain that could lead to packaged foods looking less- expensive. it will be interesting to see how it plays out. >> you look at a company like kellogg. they might have froot loops but they also own bare naked. are they looking at rolling out new brands where they might have a strategy to offer a food that will be more geared towards the consumer? >> i think you see a lot of these companies switching out their portfolios going back to 2017, 2018. frankly, i think companies that have better exposure to the weight loss

drugs like simply good foods i've written about quite a bit. they are low-carb protein shake kind of company. i think that could be a candidate but obviously none of them have commented publicly. >> it is petfood and protein to the rescue. thank you. we have a news alert on netflix with shares at an all- time high. julia has the story. >> reporter: netflix announcing that the jake paul and mike tyson fight had a over 108 million live viewers including 65 million concurrent streams. they say to put those numbers in context, back in january peacock said it's wildcard gain is the biggest lifestream to vet in u.s. history so this would be surpassing that. 123 million people watched the super bowl this year. this is more people watching,

fewer people than that watching but that was a tv event. this is all streaming. we see shares are up on this news. this is really showing the global reach of netflix to have so many of those viewers coming internationally as well and seemingly the technical issues not hurting the viewership numbers or the stock. >> a great point. incredible numbers. that was with barely any marketing. very well done. coming up, $20 billion. that is how much alphabets chrome browser could fetch if a spinoff is forced as part of the antrt setiusca. those details and what it could mean for google's a.i. ambitions, next. (♪♪)

everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪) since starting the farmer's dog, bogart has lost so much weight. and he has so much more energy. he's like a puppy again. ♪ (banjo playing) ♪ c,mon bo!

this is a before picture of bogart. such a big boy. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. and look at him now. he's like a show dog. [silence] bogue, can you give daddy a break here? he's having a hard enough time. say christmas. christmas! for holiday traditions old and new, when you want gifts to express a lifetime of love. we've spent a lifetime crafting

them. harry & david, 90 years and still sharing. welcome back. shares of alphabet are up 1.5%

despite reports that the justice department plans to force a sale of google's chrome browser as part of its efforts to limit monopoly in search. we have more on this follow. i'm a little bit fired up because i really like chrome and i don't want them to mess with my experience. anyway, over to you. >> reporter: the good news is that this is likely a long ways away and it does raise some questions, how would you even split it off and would chrome be worth anything without google ? for some investors, it might be a better than feared scenario and a long way off. there's variables like a new administration to factor in but it would undoubtedly have implications for their position in the gen a.i. arms race especially as it moves into the next phase. here is where google is

uniquely positioned in part thanks to chrome. it is an ecosystem of data, synergy across many products, and ecosystem locked in. when you login to chrome it automatically syncs your browsing history, calendar, youtube recommendations and google maps locations across all devices. and a.i. agent withdraw on that to build a highly personalized and unified experience. the more to draw on the better the agent. breakout chrome and that synergy you give an edge to other platforms like microsoft or apple that have their own large ecosystems. that's also where this potential remedy misses its mark. instead of leveling the playing field it hands big tech even greater lock when they are all trying to create these agents. you really give a leg up to the companies that already have a lot of data. to your point you move everything in chrome maybe

would just move it over to apple. >> who would they sell it to? it can't be big enough that it would defeat the whole thing. what is the consumer time that selling chrome fixes? >> if you think about google dominance, chrome is key to the dominance. we showed you the image of all the different applications that it draws on. therefore, he would take away that advantage to essentially have that search monopoly. you have all of these things and google can offer a better proposition to advertisers that they have all of this data. as to who would buy this, it's a good question because it really is not worth the same thing without that ecosystem. it could certainly hurt that data collection. >> i eagerly await more details on this and what else might be possible remedies. thank you very much.

we appreciate it. coming up, here is one last look at mystery. they shares are down but they reiterated the rating. the reveal is next. i want to draw your attention to bit coin which is now above mel-00 and just hit a fresh al ti high. it's up 35% since the election. we are back after this. don't go anywhere.

it's odd how in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. (the stock market is now down 23%). this is happening people. where there are so few certainties... (laughing) look around you. you deserve to know. as we navigate a future unknown. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. (intercom) t minus 10... (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming. (vo) this holiday, verizon will turn your old or broken phone into a gift. anyone can trade in any phone, in any condition and get samsung galaxy s24+, and watch and tab, all three on us.

only on verizon.

welcome back. they are doing it again. walmart shares at a fresh all- time high having their best day since august on the back of strong earnings and a guidance rank. the retailer said they are buying more than just groceries. general merchandise sales are up for the second straight quarter after falling for 11 consecutive quarters prior to that. it is a good sign for t.j. maxx and ross that are reporting next week. my next guest see some risk

near term but expects the category to thrive. ross was the mystery chart. congratulations to tom for guessing that. lorraine is the senior retail analyst. the message from walmart seems to be that the economy, dare we say the consumer? is doing well pretty now -- pretty well right now. >> i would say especially the value and the retailer. walmart, t.j. maxx or ross the consumer is looking for value. inflation cumulatively over the past three years is 22%. the u.s. consumer after they spend on necessities are trying to find the best value for their money. that's one of the reasons we think it is so well positioned for the environment. >> absolutely the valuation remains top. walmart's prices were 20% below competitors in a recent survey. is the pace of consumer spending sustainable or will we hit this inflection point? i

can paint the scare scenario. >> that is certainly one of the scenarios but what we are excited about is the first signs of trade down. the wealthier consumer is starting to look to these places to find the brands they love from us and really looking for that value. they have fewer dollars to spend, they want to spend it on higher quality products and a branded offering at a store like tj is a great way to do that. >> you said that there will be a modest impact. you have lowered your estimate to account for that. there's a shorter spending time frame between thanksgiving and christmas. >> you are right. we did lower estimates and we are now toward the lower end of guidance. october was the second warmest october in 130 years. that really does push some of the cold weather

spending out of october into november. for these companies that is in the fourth quarter. off-price is a lower income consumer they tend to buy closer to need. you may not get pants for your child until it gets cold or you may not get a coat until you really need one. that's what we see here. i think the quarter is off to a better start because it has finally snapped. we lowered estimates but we don't feel that as any type of longer-term issue. i think it is a very short-term problem in october that we think has already been remedied. >> as you say these are across- the-board transformational and very successful retailers. do you look at the risk of tariffs? what happened under the first trump administration and how do terrorists affect the unique supply chains? >> we typically look to disruption in the supply chain

as really positive for off- price. if you look at times when the supply chain was backed up there was too much inventory it can come in and capitalize on opportunities as we see them with supply. >> we will hear from them thursday? >> tomorrow morning. >> wednesday morning. thank you. the weeks are flying by and these companies just keep winning. as always i appreciate your time. that is it for the exchange. tyler is getting ready for power lunch. i will join him on the other side of the break.

hi, i'm damian clark. i'm here to help you understand how to get the most from medicare. if you're eligible for medicare, it's a good idea to have original medicare. it gives you coverage for doctor office visits and hospital stays. but if you want even more benefits, you can choose a medicare advantage plan like the ones offered at humana. our plans combine original medicare with extra benefits in a single, convenient plan with $0 or low monthly plan premiums. these plans could even include prescription drug coverage with $0 copays on hundreds of prescriptions. and medicare advantage plans ensure that your covered medical costs will never go above a maximum out-of-pocket amount that you know beforehand. most humana medicare advantage plans include dental coverage with $0 copays

for covered preventive dental services. vision coverage that includes vision exams and a yearly allowance towards eyewear. even hearing benefits, including routine hearing exams and coverage towards hearing aids. there are $0 co-pays for in-network preventive services like annual wellness visits, mammograms, and prostate exams. and $0 co-pays for routine vaccines and telehealth visits. you get worldwide coverage for emergency and urgent care when you travel, so you can have peace of mind when you're away from home. and of course, you should be able to see the providers you like. that's why humana works with multiple large plan networks of doctors, hospitals and pharmacies. so, get the most from medicare with a humana medicare advantage plan. you can have more coverage than with original medicare with $0, or low monthly plan premiums, and a yearly cap on your out-of-pocket costs. it's called medicare advantage for a reason. so, call a licensed humana sales agent today to learn more,

and to request a free decision guide. remember, annual enrollment for medicare advantage plans ends december 7th. humana. a more human way to health care. ♪ welcome to "power lunch" everybody. alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could be with us. the s&p and the nasdaq are now higher. the dow negative, but by ever so slight a margin as you see. had been down 450 points earlier in the session. the fears of escalating tensions with russia sending investors to seek safety, gold jumped this morning, but is pulling back now. this is all related to the u.s.'s permission to use long