annual enrollment for medicare advantage plans ends december 7th. humana. a more human way to health care. ♪ welcome to "power lunch" everybody. alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could be with us. the s&p and the nasdaq are now higher. the dow negative, but by ever so slight a margin as you see. had been down 450 points earlier in the session. the fears of escalating tensions with russia sending investors to seek safety, gold jumped this morning, but is pulling back now. this is all related to the u.s.'s permission to use long-range, highly powerful

missiles that could strike russian territory and, in fact, did earlier today. >> and bitcoin is at a record high. i'm not sure that's exactly related to that overall theme, but it's happening nevertheless. options on one of the top etfs are beginning to trade. that could be a catalyst. we saw bitcoin rise above 93,000 almost touching 94 a few moments ago. walmart is higher giving a boost to the dow after they beat on earnings and raised guidance and making more money on commerce and inroads with higher income customers. >> any time you got a beat and raise whether poker or walmart you have a good thing going. meantime a lot of focus on the transition of team of president trump. we're watching the transition team of the incoming mayor of san francisco adding openai's sam altman. to be he told us he's already looking for real estate. >> that's a microcosm of what we might be seeing nationally.

the tensions with russia, saying ukraine sent six u.s. missiles -- u.s. made missiles into russian territory. eamon, good afternoon. >> hey there. president biden authorized ukraine just two days ago to use these american-made long range army tactical missile systems known as atacms to strike russian territory and the ukrainians have done just that, firing the missiles at russian targets in the bryansk region. previously ukrainian strikes had been made with ukrainian drones not american-made hardware. in moscow the kremlin announced russian leader vladimir putin has approved a new nuclear doctrine which says moscow could use a nuclear attack in response to an attack by a non-nuclear country backed by a nuclear state. a report by signumb argues the

policy change doesn't substack stantively change the situation because putin can use nuclear weapons or not no matter what the document's text says. i've been talking to multiple cia veterans who have operational experience in russia and ukraine and telling me the latest escalation could be useful for the incoming trump team because it's a sign that both sides may be preparing for a negotiated settlement after trump takes office. the ukrainians trying to consolidate their gains on russian territory and the russians saber rattling to intimidate the west from supporting further action. back to you guys. >> sounds here like maybe what is taking shape is some kind of land for peace kind of swap. i mean that's the implication here, is it not, eamon? >> one of the former cia officers told me the interesting dynamic here is that the ukrainians invaded the kursk area of russia, the russians were determined to push them out and through a lot of troops at that issue weren't able to do

it. the ukrainians have been able to hold on to a lot of that territory, not all of it, and that may be something that zelenskyy is trying to really lock down those gains with these long-range missile strikes to say to the russians hey f you're coming to the table we're coming to the table with a big chunk of your territory as a negotiating tool. that may be what we're seeing here in the preamble. we'll see how the incoming trump team decides to handle the is. no indication just yet of what communication back and forth there's been between the outgoing bitcoin den and incomi trump teams. maybe some of that is happening as well. >> i also gather, russians even as the ukrainians escalate using these american-made, high-tech missiles the russians, too, are escalating overnight i believe there was a serious attack on kyiv. maybe another one in crimea. the one on kyiv was aimed at disabling power supplies but also killed some civilians. >> yeah.

and you see zelenskyy taking to social media today. some of his comments on social media were fascinating to me because he was talking about what the postwar era is going to look like in ukraine, so clearly volodymyr zelenskyy also starting to think about what that postwar era will be and willing to icate some of those thoughts to the west because the tweets posted in english and his domestic audience in ukraine. >> thanks very much. jumping to the markets as we mentioned a moment ago, stocks are well off the worse levels of the day. shaking off at least temporarily the concerns about rising tensions between ukraine and russia. how should investors position themselves given the geopolitical risks? joining us to discuss that is peter anderson, founder and cio at anderson capital management and chad, the portfolio manager at washington crossing advisors. how do you factor in to your portfolio management and you run a concentrated portfolio, how do you factor in these geopolitical

tensions if at all? >> what is a portfolio manager to do these days? in my opinion these things are tran gent. i know -- i don't want to trivialize them but in terms of how one would pick stocks, there's a number of possibilities. one possibility, which is what i pursue, is to almost ignore this as, dare i say, noise, but still focus on the stocks that we think will do well remember we're in trump 2.0 now. a lot of investors are trying to figure out if this is a replay of trump 1 and if that's the case we redo our stock picking. i don't think that's a good guarantee. i'm thinking that trump 2.0 will be very, very different from the first regime and we need to focus more on fundamental stock picking, rather than saying what are trump's favorite policies and how can we play into that. that is more risky, in my

opinion, than doing pure stock selection. >>, so i hear you suggesting that while the ukraine situation is something you can sort of set aside as, quote, noise, i think that was your word, the trump 2.0 and the potential changes to taxation and regulation and immigration and all of those, could be something that you're going to have to and are indeed now taking into account in your stock evaluation? >> well, i'm actually saying, almost the opposite. that so many -- >> then you confused me, peter. >> so many of these things are speculative in terms of where we think trump is going to go, right. if we were to pick stocks based on what we think he's going to do, what his policies might be, i think you could end up in several dead ends because he's so unpredictable in terms of what his policies will be. certainly we're thinking that

tariffs will be a repeat, but in terms of other steps he's taking, i'm not certain we can be at all confident when he's moving forward he will replay the steps that he did. thus, when you're looking at stocks, i think you go back to your own playbook and virtually almost ignore what we think he's going to do in this term. >> all right. thanks for the clarification. >> build on that, if you would. so many people right now are looking at these outsized moves since the election, maybe it's the food space because of hhs, maybe it's bitcoin which is up 35%. do you fade that? are there entry points this creates for you? are you chasing it? what's the strategy? >> so i've been doing this since 1993 and my partner, and i we have a discipline. you would not chase it. you'd stick to your [ inaudible ]. when you have an election cycle and that's a winner the worst

possible knee-jerk reaction is to change your discipline. so we would be mindful of being in high quality names. yes, this poses risks regarding the hhs where it comes to health care, but we believe that the risks over the long run are immaterial. so we would move up the quality spectrum, we're at a high multiple about 25, 24 times this year, 21.5 times next year. we're trading at a market cap to gdp of two times. so we just really would be more critical about the investments that we're making and that doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in equities put you want to be in a higher quality. >> do you have health care in the portfolio? it's not just this potential nominee. there are people shaking their heads about the under performance of this space and maybe glp-1s and maybe it's medicare and medicaid. everywhere you look there have been land mines. >> there has been. we own health care.

we own hmos. we've owned them a long time. united health care. 'just entered the position of elements. we think that over the longer run, they will -- they have long-term tailwinds. we don't believe over the long run that this poses a risk to their business models. we just want to be mindful that valuations given the fairly concentrated type of market environment right now, we believe that over the next 18 months, there will be a broadening out of the markets and in particular with some of these names. >> peter, back to you and among your sort of both trump and geopolitically agnostic picks are a number of cyber security stocks. >> yes. it's possible that cyber security will endure almost any presidential appointment in the sense that the fundamentals of that industry are so strong, especially when there's say even

international conflict now. it puts more focus on the need to protect all our cyber networks. so as time evolve, we believe that this need is going to increase and, tyler, the only thing i can see that where this disrupts is quantum computing which is a whole other industry that we haven't really touched upon. it's in its infancy. once quantum computing is established, then we will have to go to a next level of cyber protection. as it stands now and we're probably about i would say ten nobel prizes away at least from developing cyber quantum computing, cyber security will really be endurable. >> because quantum breaks cyber security. >> yes. it breaks all our cyber cryptology within a second and that's the problem, is that if this does come into existence,

all our cyber security will have to be revamped because we'll break all those crypto codes within a very short time. >> you have to -- >> we've got some time. >> reminds me of the line you have to dance while the music is playing. you're in the cyber stocks until quantum destroys that. i don't know if you have any exposure to cyber or other we talked about health care. wharp what are the parts of the market you're excited about? >> technology is a very interesting scene of opportunity. look no further as google or adobe when it comes to leveraging their business models with the artificial intelligence and cloud computing. we think that overall, that that capital investment is going to be incredible, but it's also going to support future long-term growth for both of those companies. we think that those are opportunity that you have to put

in your portfolio over the next three to five years. they will be volatile overall, but we believe in those companies. >> all right. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. peter and chad, we thank you. >> thank you. >> see chad again in three stock lunch. also still to come, volatility is on the rise. stocks are prague some big swings in the past few days amid uncertainty here and abroad. after the break insights from the ceo of one of the top exchanges the cme. "power lunch" will be right back. stay with us. >> crypto is sponsored by --

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like the cme trading around the highs of the year. the stock is underperforming the s&p. analysts saying growing competition causing them to lose some market share. here to discuss dom chu joins us with the cme ceo terry duffy. welcome to you both. take it away. >> thanks, kelly. thanks very much. thank you, terry, for being with us here. kelly laid out a great scenario. i'm going to get to that in one second. >> sure. >> the reason we are here in naples, florida, because cme group is the headline sponsor for the season-ending tour championship for the ladies professional golf association. your brand has been associated with this tournament for years, and it has now produced the biggest purse in women's golf. can you take us through why it's such an important part of your branding here at cme group. >> there's many things that go into it, but the big part of it is cme is a diverse organization. the old cme group, the way you

would have looked at it in the '80s and '90s, you show up today you wouldn't recognize it. it's the most diverse. if you look at our user base it doesn't discriminate against women. it's women are very large in our business as you know. i wanted to do something more in the sports world. i thoughts the lpga made sense. i brought this tournament to fruition in 2011. built it up. i don't like the fact that men are getting paid more than women for certain events. didn't make sense. the winner will get $4 million. and $11 million purse. you have to earn your way into the event, but it's the biggest prize. we think we're doing the right thing. >> last year you told us that you were going to continue your sponsorship of the event. why is it that you think that this is part of the future for cme group as well? >> well here, what's going on in basketball right now, women's

basketball. caitlin clark played last weekend in annika's event and where women are going. we think it's important, make sure we maintain our brand associated with what we think is acceptable around the world. when my client comes in to play in a pro am and you played in it before and how delightful these women are and help you go forward if business and your ame, it's exciting for us now. >> this is a time not just about sport but many variables. >> yeah. >> happening as kelly points out. geopolitical tensions on the rise. we had probably the most contentious election cycle in modern u.s. history if not all of u.s. history. what is it like for you as a ceo, the business outlook for not just cme group but for the american economy in general, given that we see with the election and what the rhetoric has been about what the future could look like. >> i said earlier today, i think, and i know others have said it, the way the markets are

discounting geopolitical risk is a tragic mistake. you're looking at russia, ukraine being on page 50 of the newspaper not page one. whatever happened was yesterday nobody cares because our attention span is in the moment. what's going on in the middle east, it's gotten worse not better. that's a problem. what's going to happen with china and taiwan is an issue. these factors are not being priced in the markets, and i understand why people get forward. you look at march of 2008, 2009 i should say, the market has not had a downtick that the world didn't like to buy since then. eventually that doesn't work. we have the 20 and 30 somethings controlling the money and buy and hold. it's worked out really well for them. i'm not begrudging them, but you cannot dismiss what's going on geopolitically. you hedge your risk. signature bank and others where they did not hedge duration risk. when you don't hedge duration risk and the fed takes the overnight lending rate to 5.25% and you took the money at 2% and

invested it in long-term securities what happens? people want their money back and you don't have it. you go out of business. risking, making sure you hedge stuff properly is important as well. >> one of the other things as well, the cme group gets a lot of air time these days because of the fed watch tool. >> yeah. >> because of interest rate futures and what they say about the economy going forward and interest rate policy. what's your view on interest rate policy? are we on the right path? are you seeing, perhaps, more volatility in some of these markets because of some of the uncertainty around interest rate policy going forward? >> my job is not to determine what the interest rate policy is. my job is to manage the risk for people who take a risk. that's what we do. when you look at where the rates are at today, look at $36 trillion, you look at $1.9 trillion annual deficit spend, there is a lot of leverage in the system, a lot of debt out there, everything's got a borrowing component associated with it. interest rates are so important. even the smallest movement in rates has a massive impact on

someone's mortgage, credit card whatever the case may be. so i think that the interest rate whether the policy we see more cuts or not i'm not sure. it gets harder to cut when you have more leverage and debt in the system. other nations are doing the same thing. >> terry, it's kelly. i wanted to sneak in a hi and question. >> hi, kelly. >> it's good to see you. i don't know if this is exactly sort of competitive or what you make of it. what do you make of the plan for the new york stock exchange to go to longer trading hours and how should we be thinking through the knock on effects of it? >> i think it's inevitable. i think that the world wants to go 24/7 whether we like it or not. i'm not saying i support or don't support it. i am just saying one thing, i think that that's what the world wants and i don't think they're going to have an opportunity to change that. they're not going 24/7. the nyse, they're a traditional 9 to 4 operation but they will extend their hours.

we've been 23 hours a day six days a week. we think it's going to continue. that's the way the world wants it. i don't think there's anybody to put the genie back in the bottle. >> i want to let you know, terry is probably one of the most well networked ceos and bring terry's got an entourage with him right now, and i think that these guys -- >> i don't have an entourage. i have friends and friends that come down here and they do -- >> all i know they're hovering and you'll know who these people are when you see them on camera, right. >> how are you. >> what's going on, vince. >> vince vaughn, one of the nicest human beings on the planet and dear friend keith urban. >> good to see you. >> with me raising money for st. jude children's research hospital. i'm blessed to know both for a lot of years when i text them and ask him to do it, he's putting on a charity concert, vince spoke eloquently to my clients. amazing to have friends like this. i asked, you want to say hello to kelly evans and the folks at cnbc and they said, we wouldn't

miss it. keith's got cnbc australia on right now. >> i tell you. >> a concert on tonight. >> i love all four of you. you look a little bit like, dom n the butler cabin at augusta, but keith urban, my favorite song, my wife's favorite song is the fighter, which you did with carrie underwood. >> yeah. >> it is great. great. >> i love it. >> tell them that. would you tell them that. >> i'm going to tell him. >> his favorite song is the fighter and it's his wife's favorite song the fighter. >> yeah. >> with carrie underwood. >> least got a concert tonight. >> tonight he's singing the fighter, and i'm doing the role as carrie underwood. >> we're going to get it on camera. >> will you, please. >> that should have been my moment. >> that is just the best. >> wouldn't have it any other way. >> ask them quickly, ask them what they think about 24-hour trading, obviously, before we go. >> all right. i'll ask. vince, and i talked. want me to ask him now.

>> vince, yeah. >> right here. >> kelly evans from cnbc would like to know what you think about 24-hour a day trading. >> i don't think we can put the genie back in the bottle. i think the people are doing that right now. i -- if i -- if my stats are right i think it's been six days a week for about 23 hours a day, so i feel like that's just where the market is going and as we all know we have to change with the times. >> we have to evolve. >> that is raw ent. >> vince never needed to study his lines very long, as you can tell. >> exactly. >> terry, a lot of ceos are going he did that pretty well right now. maybe has a future in the corporate world. >> kelly, he's a chicago guy. he grew up with this and knows it. >> in his blood. this has been too enjoyable. thank you for the extra time. >> stay here and talk with these guys for an hour. thanks, dudes. >> we're going to have a lot of fun here. >> keith can break into a little

hot summer nights if you want. >> we'll save that for tonight. >> love that. >> nice to meet you guys. >> thanks for having us. >> can i say to vince vaughn and keith urban, thank you so much for joining us along with terry duffy and dominic chu. >> that was really, really cool. all right. still to come, traders making bullish bets on nvidia ahead of the company's highly anticipated earnings. vince vaughn. what do you know! should you jump in or look for a hedge. we'll break it down in market navigator next. keith urban, he's your fighter. oh. great stuff.

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(intercom) flight deck we are go for launch! create a beautiful website in minutes (ethan) is that the one? (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...is that a walk in closet? (ethan) i want those tiles! (intercom) boosters engaged. (ethan) wait! we've got a problem! (janet) problem?! (ethan) how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (tanya) no, no! bad timing, janet!!! (janet) but that was the one!!!! (brian) no, no, no... opendoor!! (tanya) don't open the door. (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline.

(all) really? (brian) yea!!! (intercom) we have liftoff. (janet) nice! (janet) houston we have a playroom! . welcome back, everybody, to "power lunch." let's give you a check on the markets as you see, the dow industrials are down about 95 points. s&p 500 up a little bit as is the nasdaq. the day began rocky with word -- news of sort of an escalation over in ukraine in the war there. nvidia will, meantime, release its quartly results after the closing bell. our next guest believes nvidia

will beat system and there is no alternative as a pure play in this area but he does have add-on names that support the space if you're looking for a little bit lower volatility. david miller is co-founder and chief investment officer at catalyst funds. welcome. your views on nvidia have changed, i'm told, since the last time you were with us. explain what you were feeling then and now and why? >> yeah. well, my views have changed because the data has changed, so my views changed with it. essentially the old data told you you should model off more's law, but with the most recent earnings report from meta, things like ai are not behaving like moore's law. the models they indicated will take ten times as much compute to train as lama 3 did, and meta's last quarter spend, they're north of $8 billion capex and most of that was going

to this data networking. so you can see from the hyper scalers that we've already essentially baked in a beat for nvidia's earnings and that's why i'm more bullish than i was previously. >> so in short, then, because it's going to take so much more computing power and because nvidia is really right now the monopoly power in that space, there's no place to go but to nvidia to get the power you need? >> exactly. and nvidia's essentially a pure monopoly and that's continuing with their next generation blackwell chips. those won't be in this quarter's earnings, but they will start next quarter and really be baked into the january quarter. but you can already see from the numbers that came out with this very elevated capex spending by the hyper scalers, that that money is clearly going to nvidia for their current iteration of

chips and they've indicated at least in particular for meta that that's going to continue to escalate quite rapidly. the same trend we're going to see at google and microsoft. these companies have no choice but to compete in that arms race. you can't afford to lose in ai. >> thank you so much for being with us. david miller. co-founder and chief investment officer, thank you. we'll see you soon. , tyler, thanks. a golden gate opportunity. san francisco leaning in to the business community. mayor-elect naming sam altman as one of the cochairs. are we about to see a shift? "power lunch" will be right back.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm julia boorstin with your news update. president-elect donald trump announced howard lutnick as his pick for commerce secretary.

the cantor fitzgerald ceo had been in the run. the california health department reported a possible bird flu case in a child today who had no known contact to an infected animal. officials are testing kids and teachers into the child's day care and say they're looking into the possibility of exposure to wild birds. the new york jets fired general manager joe douglas after five years with the franchise. under his leadership the team has a 30-64 record including a 3-8 start to the season. no winning seasons and no playoff appearances. it comes just six weeks after the jets fired coach robert sayla. back to you. >> thank you very much. a key business figure added to the transition team of san francisco's incoming mayor. kate roonery in joins us with how sam altman could signal a change is about to take place in the city by the bay. >> sam altman, ceo of openai is

a key adviser for the new san francisco mayor and does underline how important this part of the tech industry is. the philanthropist steps into the mayor's office in january, altman will be a key spokesperson for ai in the city which is an economic cornerstone here if you look at commercial real estate. the city has the highest vacancy rates in the country, 36.9% per cbre. there is optimism that could improve thanks to booming ai startups like openai. according to costar 15% of office leases in san francisco have been ai companies and openai designed the largest commercial deal this year. altman wealds tech influence beyond ai. he did run a famous start-up incubator that backed names like airbnb and stripe. current ceo gary tan has been a vocal critic of laurie, the tech community has gotten engaged in local politics in the past

couple years. has advocated for business tax breaks for tech companies to incentivize them to relocate here. think back to twitter that had a massive tax break moved to mid market street. that did not keep twitter around. you look at x, actually left the city after elon musk bought that company. this is hardly altman's only foray into public policy. spending time in d.c. trying to shape ai regulation. >> interesting, thank you. kate rooney. >> how might the shift in sentiment and planning affect san francisco real estate? we asked don pooebls about that last week. >> we are looking at san francisco because i believe it has bottomed out. i think we talked about this before, that we thought that that market was bottoming out soon. the voters, as i've said in these progressive city, the quality of life is so bad they are now losing patience with

these progressive policies and why the mayor in san francisco was defeated. >> our next guest has his finger on the pulse of san francisco as well, the owner of one of the city's largest office buildings. chairman and ceo and here on set with us. welcome. >> thank you. >> [ inaudible ] the past two weeks have been like? >> tremendous amount of optimism in the city. sam altman's selection to join the transition team is a key moment because it does show that daniel laurie actually is connected to the city. he knows what people need, what people care about. i said to mayor breed a couple years back, your job as the mayor is to make people feel loved. you need to -- companies feel like you want them there. pick up the phone and call them. make sure they stay here. we saw that that didn't really happen. i can see from daniel's work, and i know daniel from the campaign, that he is invested in the companies, he's invested in tech, invested in ai and he's invested in the safety of san

francisco which is the most important thing. >> yeah. i look at what could happen, you know, in the next few years, and if anything, i look back at the past 20 years and think, you know, people in office and mayor could have a big impact. new york how things went differently under bloomberg and de blasio and administrations. what do you think is going to happen off the bat here? what do you foresee? is it deregulatory? what? >> i think dan lurie won on change. no different than how trump won. we're seeing all of -- even california as a whole, almost 0% voted republican, which is the highest number in 20 years. we've seen double the amount of republican votes in san francisco itself. there is this notion of change that is needed there. he ran on a very simple message. common sense politics. it's not about a shift. he's not calling it a shift or this earthquake which really some people think. it's about common sense politics. safety, it's about getting drugs off the street, getting homeless off the street and bringing

people back to downtown. with that commitment, and he doesn't need the job, he wants the job, he is committed to making the change and change on day one. this is not a guy that's going to wait for things to come to him. >> is ai going to bring a sort of second sort of wave of prosperity and job creation to san francisco? >> well, it is already. i sat here with kelly a few months back and saying that ai, this bubbling in the market, you know, you just showed some data, but that data is still, that 50% number is historic because we're seeing what's really happening. 65 leases signed this year alone when it comes to ai companies in san francisco. 50% of all vc money in the world is invested in san francisco. so if -- when you see all that money being invested there, jobs are being created. jobs are being created, people need commercial space. there's an interesting moment there that people only want to be in the top buildings in the

top locations in san francisco, but ai is definitely the number one engine in the city. >> these companies are comfortable that the sort of quality of life issues that have been chronicled and amplified correctly or incorrectly in the public press, they're not obstacles now? >> well, first thing, they were amplified incorrectly. they were in one specific area and exaggerated because of the news, but the reality is, today we're seeing more people in san francisco. we opened the transamerica pyramid on september 12th, the transamerica park. there used to be zero people coming there. there's almost 4,000 people in the park weekly there to see the art show, the public programming. we're seeing people coming back. we're not seeing the crime or the drugs on the street. it's secluded in specific areas. but there's definitely a lot of change that has to happen there. >> is work from home kind of a

still a very much the case? how much is the population in downtown san francisco led by people coming into the office five days a week? how much might we move in that direction? how much might we not? i don't know if the dynamics are the same as we might see in the rest of the country? >> the main reason people work from home the home office is better than the environment. why sit in a car and go to the office if it's better in my kitchen. >> it's quieter. >> there's no collaboration in growth in your pajamas. companies are pushing employees to come to work, but us as landlords have to given reasons to come to work. part of the transamerica remastering, we put $400 million in to create reasons for people to come to work, restaurants or bars or spas and gyms, things they don't have in their home and seeing today occupancy in the building higher than it was

precovid times. >> wow. very interesting. well, good luck with what you're doing and for san francisco. >> it's there. thank you. >> yeah. >> michael, thanks very much. cnbc is extending the deadline to nominate a leader for our change maker's list that recognizes women, transforming business and philanthropy. nominate a change maker now through november 22nd which is friday. scan the qr code or visit cnbc.com/changemakers. we will be right back.

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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. let's give you a check on the markets as stocks are off the worst levels, but still lower for the dow industrials by 170 points. about 0.4%. initial reaction to sell stocks on increased russia-ukraine tensions have largely faded. s&p and nasdaq are in positive territory. those fears prompted an earlier flight to safety buying in the bond markets and prices up and yields down and analyze that for us, let's go to rick santelli in chicago. >> yes, tyler. you know, you really nailed its because equities paint the same picture as treasuries but in an

even easier form because the lows of the session in equities basically the first trades of the day. even though the dow is in the red, it was still at the lowest level when it first opened. the moral of the story as you look at two-year and ten-year on one chart together is that there's a lot to unpack here. whether it was 3:00 a.m. or 4:00 a.m., first at 3:00 a.m. new york time, we saw the headlines nuclear response potentially to the new conventional types of warfare that ukraine was using against russia. we saw yields trop drop. an hour later ukraine used a long-range missile strike within russian territory and saw another yield drop. as we sit right now, twos and tens are down several basis points. the counter factual here, maybe they would have been up ten or 15 basis points because any types of nuclear threats or the

escalation in geopolitics i thought would have warranted a bigger response in the marketplace and much of this has reversed out. even if you look towards europe here's gilts and bunds. the two-day chart. you can see almost identical patterns with 3:00 and 4:00 equivalent eastern drops in yield. but in all markets it's worked its way out to some extent. the moral of the story geopolitics doesn't have a long half lich in the markets like it used to. back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. meanwhile shares of walmart hitting a fresh all-time high after posting a beat and raise third quarter. we'll trade it and a couple other names in three stock lunch right after this.

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let's close things out with three stock lunch. chad is back. he's senior portfolio manager at washington crossing advisors and heard your top level thoughts and now a little tactical and we're going to start with microsoft. they unveiled a host of updates to cloud and ai services at the ignite conference in chicago. ceo satya nadella spoke with cnbc touting historic demand for their 36 5 copilot platform. >> ai is doing that for all knowledge work, whether it's in customer service, whether it's in marketing, whether it's in finance, whether it's in sales. copilot, copilot agents have been transformative. it's the fastest. it's the fastest selling adoptive suite of microsoft 365 ever in our history. >> and chad, some have questioned the stock's valuation

in part, you know, given the valuation of its performance that's lagged a bit and questioning the activision deal. what do you do with it? >> we've owned this stock for over ten years in our rising dividend portfolio and we would be a buyer of it and think overall the company's stock price can go above 600 over the next several years. 50% of their revenue just to simplify it is coming from subscription-based business. that cloud computing side of the business is a reoccurring revenue business and they will upsell the small, large, businesses with ai as well as with security overlays making this a very lucrative business over the long run. growth is 50%. we would be a buyer of this. >> move on to walmart the shares hitting a all-time high after topping third quarter results and raised its full-year sales

forecast citing customers making more discretionary purchases, ordering more home deliveries online and getting an early start to the holiday shopping season. i know you bought my present already at walmart. >> i did. we have been owners of this for ten years. the flywheel is working. all the business investment that they put in over the last three to five years is now paying off. what they did on these earnings is beat across the board and you saw that the -- the consumer is spending. so it's not as if they're rolling over. in particular, it looks like the high income earner cohort is going and gravitating towards walmart. so that bodes well for the stock price. they have growing margins. in particular you're seeing them bring in the consumer from the food side and then upselling them with brands. so not to worry about the

tariffs. two-thirds of their business or their products come from the united states or assembled in the united states and they'll pass on that tariff to the consumer or push back on the supplier. >> perhaps then we move to my favorite story of the day, intuit. the turbo tax maker one of the worst performers that president elect's doge commission could introduce a new tax filing app. would you be a buyer here? >> we would be a holder of this. this is based off valuation. we think this is a high quality [ inaudible ] well capitalized. the problem here is $6 billion of the $18 billion comes from the consumer side of the business. this looks as if this is a long run perhaps headline risk concern, but overall, we think that this isn't an immediate concern. they're building out their

platform on the business side and on the middle market side and we think overall that this is a really good company but the valuation to us doesn't make sense at this point. >> chad, thanks so much. appreciate your double time today. >> all right. that brings us to the end of the hour. we got keith urban, vince vaughn. >> where do we go from here. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour starts with stocks finding their footing after overnight geopolitical headlines had the indexes wobbling into the open. a look at our scorecard with 06 minutes to go. the s&p 500 bouncing off its post-election low this morning. that was a level that hit a couple times in the last week or so. up about only a quarter of a point right now. down two-thirds of a percent at the lows. the giants of the nasdaq have been catching a bid driving the nasdaq higher by 0.8. nvidia the