welcome to power lunch. alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen. two big earnings stories today. target losing 20% after a rough report. nvidia on tech after the bell. we will talk a little more about the target one that is major. >> 20% drop especially after a day walmart did so well in grocery and eneral merchandise. a little bit easier for bit coin hitting an all-time high just shy of 95,000. a few weeks ago 300,000 was set to be a reasonable target. he has raised that. >> beat and raise is what you

call that. he's going to 400,000. he will join us. shares of comcast are slightly higher after making official what was announced in the last earnings call and that's that the company will spin off most of its cable networks including this one into a new standalone company including cnbc along with msnbc. >> i need some deep thoughts on this critical juncture for this company. >> it's a reflection of the changing dynamics in the media business and the fact that a lot of the cable networks have depended on subscription revenues for the majority of their revenues. that number is coming down. this will probably scale those networks back together in a way that may hopefully be profitable. >> i was interested that shares only rose half a %. they are

keeping bravo. it's a drug or not. >> the housewives. >> also releasing the list of nhl franchise valuations. the toronto maple leafs are the most valuable at $4 million. we will talk to the owner of the washington capitals. what are those increases and changes they are in a fitting from. >> i was surprised that the maple leafs, who have not won a playoff series and i forget how many decades are the number one most valuable. i would have guessed the rangers or the canadians but who knows. we will talk more about that. >> let's dig deeper into targets drop. courtney reagan is here with more details. where do we begin? >> this quarter came up much worse than expected following the prior report which was better than expected. really inconsistent performance. target explained they missed

earnings expectations by a dargan -- margin. sales discretionary goods were smaller than expected combined with rerouting and rushing to navigate the port strike which ended up only being a couple days. the coo explained, it met we are fuller a little earlier in the quarter than we would like to be. we are never quite as efficient when buildings are full but we felt it was the right decision., herbal sales were positive with nearly 11% growth online. contrast that with walmart who so much stronger than expected sales in the quarter. interestingly walmart said general merchandise sales did grow for the second quarter in a row. target struggled in that category and the majority of target sales are in those categories while 60% of walmart sales are food and told me about a fifth of target sales are. those were positive for target

but a smaller part of the business. many analyst think the issues are target specific. the executive said that consumers are spending but being choice will pointing to a quieter sales week before october circle week went sales hit a record. the customers are buying but they are waiting for key moments. when we drop those prices then we see them. >> walk me through the inventory issue. >> what target was trying to do was when there was rumblings that there was going to be a port strike they loaded up. they paid to reroute merchandise which costs more. they paid to hurry it up maybe bring it on planes or do something with boats so that cost more. they had more inventory. the more times you have to touch inventory in the system whether it is distribution, in the back office or the aisles it costs money. they had markets that they paid

more to get and they did not really sell very well. there was softer demand for customers in those discretionary categories. walmart did say that they did better with general merchandise this quarter. the percentage of their sales there are just smaller. >> now in the most recent order they had a lot of things they had brought in that were not selling quite as well. >> executives are trying to say, we think things will get better. there was a lot of quarter specific issues but they had to take down the guidance pretty substantially that they just raise this last quarter. analysts are kind of shaking their heads. saying what's going on. it's inconsistent performance quarter to quarter. >> i'm also a little surprised that it was such a surprise. whatever it was last summer when they had all of those issues it was well-publicized, a huge talking point.

this time around, where their channel checks to be done to pick up on soft traffic or the wrong mix? why was it such a surprise? >> some of it could have been inventory we could not see. it was in a storeroom or a distribution center. they were not necessarily stuffing the shelves if that makes any sense. that could be part of it that you would think the company may be started to signal to investors that's were not quit looking as rose as the forecast because clearly the miss was wide and they are paying for it in the shareprice. >> thank you very much. turning to another of the key market stories. nvidia shares trading slightly lower ahead of the third quarter earnings report. that is expected after the bell. some investors looking at it as a potential catalyst to re- accelerate the market following a fade in the postelection

rally. the next guest has an overweight rating on nvidia along with the 165 price target. erin is with wells fargo, he's the managing director. we welcome you, want to have you with us. let's talk about nvidia. you have a $165 price target which is a fairly modest move higher compared with what we have seen in the past. what are you trying to say by placing the target at that modest level compared with prior performance. >> we will reevaluate that as we get out of the earnings tonight. at the end of the day our view is unchanged. it's a platform story. they are competing at a different level. we just came out of a supercomputing and a.i. conference where the excitement around blackwell continues to be very strong, talking to

system vendors such as dell and others. our thesis continues to be well intact. nvidia continues to be our top.. if you look at the valuation the stock is tracing less than the multiple. it has historically traded north of 40. we do not think we are stretched from a valuation perspective. we just think it is what is the pace to the earnings power and we need to see it working higher. >> you said the blackwell cycle would be the key focus here. are there issues with the chip, either their ability to get it into the system fast enough, some talks about overheating. explain that to me. >> our opinion is if you went back a month or two ago there was a lot of discussion. they highlighted the fact that they had to do every mask on some of the chips. i think some of these recent

issues are more related to that. it is more or less old news. based on our discussions yesterday, we think blackwell is progressing well. nvidia noted that in a special address yesterday talking with dell which also announced they have ship the first blackwell 72 platform over the weekend. we think we will see strong commentary on a forward basis. really at the end of the day what investors need to see and hear is this durability of demand. can the data center continue to grow sequentially as we move not just into this next quarter but into fiscal 26 or calendar 25 for the company. >> what are you expecting for the guide? where do you fall when it comes to the results tonight? what is most important for you? >> first and foremost is the data center. our preview going into this was we thought they could do 30

billion+ of data center revenue. that was about 1,000,000,000 1/2 or so higher than consensus. i should point out that consensus estimates have continued to move higher. members have moved up about six or 7% since the beginning of the month. we have definitely seen expectations higher. i think on the margin discussion we think the company can sustain a 70% plus gross margin. that will be a topic of discussion but the bigger driver continues to be this data center business. it is really a platform. they are selling the internal connect, it's a huge platform story picking and software monetization we think is still added to the nvidia story. >> how deep and wide as the moat? in other words, how long can it

maintain this primacy in this ecosystem? >> our opinion, amd can participate in what is a very large market. we are constructive, but at the end of the day we think amd is in a market where they can be a high single digit market share player. we will still think that durability of this position is strong. they are executing on what is a yearly product cycle cadence. we think through the forecast, through calendar 26 and even into 27 and beyond, nvidia is in the dominant drivers position . we will continue to watch the competitive landscape but we still very much believe that nvidia is a platform story which is very different than the competitors that they see. >> i want to come back to where

we began which is the discussion of price target. you have a price target of 165. you said we will take a look at the end of the day based on what the numbers say and they say on whether they would change that. what would make you change that and move it up? >> i think that is a great question. it's consistent messaging. just the durability of demand on the sequential basis. we are at the early innings, extremely early innings of this blackwell product cycle. i have continued to believe that the software monetization side is very supportive in what we think could be amid 30+ multiple shares. the final thing, i think a lot of investors are trying to gauge the path to a five dollar plus earnings power. we have already penciled that

out to the extent that it starts to look more like a calendar 25 story that would be reflected in the updated valuation. >> thank you so much for your time. we will be watching as you will today for the report from nvidia. aaron is from wells fargo and is the managing director of technology. a bullish bit coin target. the currency almost at 90 5k today. our guest sees it hitting $400,000 by 2030. we can't laugh anymore because it's up 35% in two weeks. we will explore that when power lunch comes back.

welcome back to power lunch. take a look at bit coin which had almost 95,000 today. it was certainly past 94,000 and change. this after the financial times

reported that truth social is an advance talks to purchase a crypto trading environment. crypto is up 35% since election day and my next guest sees it hitting 400,000 by the end of the decade reaching half the market cap of gold. we have john joining us. it is great to have you back. the headlines are fast and furious. i hear that trump may be naming a crypto czar. i'm not sure it can get any more bullish from here. >> in a way you are right. don't think people are thinking things through. we had a senator on twitter space. it takes time to get stuff done in washington. we said, could you get your bill passed? she said, 2025. crypto enthusiasts want it tonight. it's not going to happen so you have to think about what

policies can happen day one through administrative action. obviously the sec will be cutting back on enforcement actions and things like that. but when can you get legislation done? not for a while. >> what with the nature of an executive order that would be beneficial to crypto look like? what would be included that would feel for the growth and the price? >> an sec chair kim --, they could do something like a safe harbor. several safe harbors around digital currencies have been proposed in legislation and at the sec meaning if you want a software project, here are the three things you need to do so you won't get prosecuted. that would be giving a green light to software developers that use crip no currency. those proposals have been out since 2020. so you can say that will be the enforcement action and

rulemaking will be done to put that in place. that does not require legislation. it would be great to have bipartisan support but that is the kind of stuff that could happen. the industry would love that. more all-time highs. >> the interesting thing is that the supply is fixed. where are we now in terms of mining? >> you are close to approaching 90%. the next happenings which don't even matter because they're so ready so much out there in supply. >> do you think it is an important national industry? do we need a strategic reserve of bit coin? >> there has been a lot of chatter about that. the big elephant in the room is that u.s. fiscal policy is unbelievable and unsustainable. if we continue at this rate every other country that's been doing this stuff has gone

bankrupt. >> that is the gdp. >> fiscal deficit as % of gdp. we are setting records with full employment. fiscal policy will be very different so here are the scenarios. one, no cuts. we are going to have tax cuts anyway so no cuts in spending or we cut half $1 trillion, 500 alien dollars in spending. that would be slowing down the economy. when you cut government spending it has to be offset with deregulation, maybe lower interest rates from the fed and things like that. it will be a very different policy dynamic. frankly, i think it will put a little uncertainty into the markets. >> i think that is a great one in point. do you take the movement and gold as a telling us something? the moment trump got elected

gold started to sell off. i read it as a proxy for dollar devaluation. i know there's a lot of different theories but it really ramped up and that seems in large part as your dollar goes less far than it used to. if bit coin is a digital version -- version than if the dollar is strengthening could it turn out to be more of a headwind? >> i 100% agree with you. everybody before the election was saying both candidates are bad for spending that was driving gold to all-time highs on a regular basis. i think they have not been focusing on elon musk. nobody mentioned it during the election but suddenly on the acceptance speech he is talking all about the lawn.

i call it the trump-musk administration. it is seriously on the table. >> but congress controls spending. it's not the white house. >> yes. 100%. i think the senate will be a dampener which is why i don't think he will get a lot of tax cuts. maybe they won't tax wages or something not so financially significant but symbolically important. >> what is the catalyst or the main driver that takes it, we've just seen it go up 35% in three weeks to 93,000 or whatever it is right at this moment. what is the catalyst to take it to 400,000 by the end of the decade. >> just additional buyers. this year has been individual investors. there are some institutions but really everyone has been very shy to talk about crip before the election. we still don't have wealth management firms approving this or allocating to

it. institutions have not been changing. >> you see that changing so they become bigger players? >> absolutely. >> do you have a bit coin etf? >> first to file in 2017. yes we do. wealth managers, institutional investors and sovereign countries. there's only six countries involved in owning or mining bit coin and we think that's what this is all about. saying we want financial discipline in this country and it is symbolic. owning some bit coin is the modern way of owning some gold. >> i would love to have you back to talk about more on this. >> thank you. as we head to break, a quick power check on the positive side of the s&p. you have technologies higher on earnings and supermicro recent string of declines continues. the company filing plans to

avoid a nasdaq delisting. we will be right back. for what's. as energy demand continues to rise, we're harnessing breakthrough innovations to increase production in the u.s. gulf of mexico. our latest deepwater development, anchor, produces previously inaccessible oil and natural gas, allowing us to deliver the energy we all need today so everyone can follow their own road. that's energy in progress.

welcome back to power lunch.

stocks lower across the board. the dow down for the fifth straight day. let's get a check on action in the bond market. rick his standing by in chicago. >> reporter: everything changed at 1:00 eastern. what happened? look at the chart. that is 20 year bond. as you can see they shot up. that is because 16 billion of twenty-year bonds that were auctioned off did not find a home very easily. the odd man on the yield curve did not find the type of demand has in the past. all maturities pushing them all up on the session. what is interesting, but i want you to pay attention to is the right side is higher than the left side. all of the treasury yields had a higher high-yield than yesterday's highs. that's called stacking.

it usually builds momentum especially after yesterday was supposedly a flight to safety day that did not seem to last long. another issue is the fact that it has the highest yield on the curve but still could not pull down strong demand. the index, right now it is up 5 1/3 on the year and looking at a fresh close. don't see anything on the index changing the strength meter especially with treasury yields being so firm. back to you. >> thank ou very much. rick santelli, appreciate it. time for a cnbc news update. >> susan smith, the mother who pushed her car into a south carolina lake in 1994 with her two young boys inside was denied parole this afternoon. the decision unanimous following emotional pleas from her family and friends to keep

her behind bars. >> it is not enough. i am asking that you please deny her parole today. >> smith, who gave a tearful apology during the hearing has served 30 years and is now eligible to apply for parole every two years. president elect donald trump named matt whitaker as his pick for the next nato ambassador. he has long criticized the alliance and called whitaker a strong warrior in the announcement. new york's mayor appointed the city's second ever female police department commissioner today. jessica tisch, the current department of sanitation commissioner and nypd veteran will assume the role starting monday. she's part of the prominent family that owns the loews

corporation. >> she is great and the family is great. we wish her the best. coming up, the average nhl team is now with $1.92 billion. we will lay out the numbers and how we got there, next. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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welcome back. cnbc sport is out with its official list of the most valuable nhl teams. the toronto maple leafs sacked the top spot worth $4 billion. the new york rangers, montrial canadiens, los angeles kings, boston bruins all round out the top five. michael is joining us, the brains behind the valuations. it is great to have you. demystify for us. why is toronto the number one team? >> the biggest city in canada. number two, a tremendous and passionate fan base. look at it this way.

they also control their arena. nearly $100 million in sponsorship revenue last season, 15% more than the next closest. >> why bother winning if you can do this while losing. >> maybe this will be there year. they are a playoff contender so we will see. >> how do the values of the hockey teams compare with five years ago? 10 years ago? how do they compare with the values of the three other major american sports, football basketball and baseball. >> they are catching up is the best thing i would say. four or five years ago you only had bottom rung teams that were financially doing ery poorly being sold like arizona and carolina. the tampa bay lightning which is a mid-level team just sold for a record $1.8 billion. $600 million more than the

coyotes were sold to be moved to utah. the valuations are going up. i know that you are economic experts so you like to look at multiples of revenue. the lightning were a little over eight times revenue. that is on par with the multiples nfl teams are being sold for. >> did not -- didn't that used to be a fidelity guy? >> he still staying on as a minority owner. >> she really turned it around. >> he has helped bring the nhl to florida. very successful. last season the florida panthers won the cup. so this is great for the nhl. >> in terms of the tv revenue, what is that like in the nhl? >> it is less but increasing rapidly. the current u.s. tv deal is worth more than three times

what the previous deal was worth. in two years the next canadian deal will start and that will also have a huge increase. it's really important for the health of the league because it is shared equally among all 32 teams. >> for my next guess we want to bring in one of the big power players in the sports world. he's the founder, chairman, and ceo of monumental sports entertainment. monumental owns the washington capitals, washington wizards, washington missed six -- mystics and the monumental sports network. so good to have you. >> thank you so much. i see arlington, university of virginia. that is great. >> it is my alma mater. i love them dearly. let's talk about your business. what is the real flywheel? is it the television? the sports network or is it the

teams? >> i was saved from a business standpoint, i noted this 25 years ago when i got into the industry, it looks like a softer services business. we have reoccurring revenues that raise almost programmatically every year 3 to 5%. about 80% of revenues are contracted on a long-term basis, be it the media business, from national that the leaks negotiate, 10, 20 year deals. locally if you are doing a naming rights deal our deal is with capital one. they will sign 10, 15 year deals and they increase 3 to 5% every year. the most variable part of the deal is on season tickets.

you can look at the data. on a bad year we renew at 80%. on a great year when you have a championship contending team it is 90-95%. the customers, the season- ticket holders that on you, if you well. they get their season tickets and test the market to sell five or 10 games a year to the secondary market. the profit they make off of that, those 10 games, pays for the rest of their games. we have a very unique business. to be the only hockey team are the only nba basketball team in a 10 million person market, our media market goes from richmond to delaware.

it is a very unique business. it looks like a sass business. if you look at sass companies, the best ones, the oracles, the salesforce they have a growing base of fortune 500 customers. they renew automatically at higher rates every year. >> if i might i would like to tear down on something i believe i heard you say a moment ago. if your team is doing really well the season-ticket holders renew at 90-95%. you've had great success with your hockey team. you have not had such great success with the washington wizards. do you still make money even though they've been a bottom dweller for a long time? if you are still signing 70% of

season-ticket holders, i don't mean to be flip, what do you care if they win or not? >> if you are in this for the money you're not going to be successful. also, using this software model, a lot of these companies are not profitable in that moment in time because they are spending a lot of money in r&d. thankfully the way the cba's are written, if you spend -- in the nhl there is a hard cap. at the nba there's an apron. if you spent to the apron, you do not pass it so you are not taxed, and you are generating revenues that are average for the league, you can break even.

that's how most people look at this business. you are trying to be competitive. you are -- you go to the tax of the nba when you have a really competitive team and you think you can win a championship. if you can't you are constantly trying as we are now with the wizards to invest in player development, use the draft, make trades to get young players and draft pick so you can step up, each step of the process. we have the coca-cola company. that is the nba and the nhl. we are the local franchise. the better the brand and the league does, the better that you do locally. we are a unique asset in that we own the teams

and the venue and the network all in the same geography. we think our strategy and platform has a lot of fidelity, a lot of margin increase because we have one cfo. we have one chief revenue officer. now we can be selling, especially to the big partners, inventory and promotional programs that is on the jersey of the player, the arena, on the ice, on the court, on our network. now we are rebuilding the building in partnership with the city. now we are expanding so we have more of an entertainment district kind of feel. >> was that one of the reasons you were considering leaving and going to virginia was the idea that there was not an entertainment district?

>> yes. the answer is there was 70 acres available. we were going to get 12 of them and today we have four acres. >> i know you know my friend scott want. he and his son are huge capitals fans. i am also a capitals fan. we wish you all the success. >> congratulations. it's great to have somebody as serious as you covering us. as an asset class, the more buy and sell side analysts that are really getting deep into the economics, i think it is great. i certainly have that kind of coverage on our wins and losses so it is great to have it on the business side. >> thank you so much. it is good to see you.

>> speaking of hockey don't miss wayne gretzky who will be on squawk box tomorrow at 8:15 a.m.. >> skate to where the puck is going. the market metaphor bar none. oldman sachs is hosting a tech conference this week bringing together industry leaders to talk innovations. we will get the highlights next with gdeshesoln ar of this year. stay with us.

welcome back to power lunch. shares of goldman sachs are up 10% since donald trump was elected two weeks ago. one reason for optimism is increased hopes for dealmaking. kelly is an event where they've been talking about another potential big influence on dealmaking. a.i. is the catalyst. >> reporter: good to see you. everybody's been telling me that animal spirits are alive and well. we are here at goldman sachs private innovative companies conference in las vegas. i sat down with two top

technology innovators and asked how a.i. is changing dealmaking strategy. they said in certain's pockets the need to spend is going in a capitol way that would've otherwise gone to acquisitions. >> it may be the new m&a. we have seen that shift in terms of the divergence versus m&a spending really expand to the whitest gap we have ever seen. i think it reflects the fact that infrastructure is a key competitive for people are comfortable investing. >> reporter: m&a spent is expected to go down half for big tech by the end of the year. cap spend is expected to nearly triple by the end of next year. a.i. is equally in the middle of the ipo. pretty much any company that is seeking new funds needs to have an answer for how a.i. impact the business.

>> a year ago it was aspirational product market. today we have a public and private market that is incredibly focused on our a, incremental revenue generation and cost savings. a more demanding specific market for all companies as a.i. transforms how they operate. >> reporter: they do expect to see a more vibrant market in 2025. >> it is interesting because shares have really run up this year, but we talked to one ipo candidate. there's just not a lot of other ones floating around. >> reporter: a lot of the activity surrounding investment banks is continued strength and debt capital markets as well as mergers and acquisitions. ipos are expected to be much bigger next year. that is something that i talked with them about. the potential pipeline and mandates. they say the mandates are very

strong and all the contours of the macro environment are contributing to a lot of confidence that will encourage them to take that step next year. in terms of the key drivers of revenue it is still the debt capital markets and m&a at this time. >> thank you very much. leslie picker reporting. shares of target plunging after its biggest earnings miss in two years own pace for its worst day since may 2022. we brought you the story now. we will get the trade in three stock lunch. that and more when we return. crypto watch is sponsored by grayscale.

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time for today's three stock lunch. here is bill, chief market strategist at bell curve trading. first up we have target. stocks down ore than 20%. posting a slight uptick in customer traffic despite the price cuts on thousands of items. cutting full-year profit guidance as a result after hiking the same forecast. what do we think of target? >> the bottom line is sales are flat down. the customer base is in this mode where they just want to buy what is essential. i do not think that behavior is going to change anytime soon. they could have had a decent quarter. they have the opportunity with the promotions and halloween but the customer base is not there. they are buying what is

essential and that's not going to change anytime soon. what i would like to do here is sell anywhere in the mid 130s. if we get any kind of bones which we might, i think the stock goes to at least 110, 105, or even nasty past 90. >> let's go to william sonoma that is hitting an all-time high. they just posted a beat and raise quarter and our own pace for the best in nearly 16 years. their stock is up 27%. >> i am a buyer here. a very good earnings report. they beat estimates for revenue sales and earnings per share. the year-over-year number was not great pick it was down 2.7% but they operated more efficiently. they increased margins. earnings per share were better and i think the most important here is they are getting more

aggressive on share buybacks. they had a record recently. they just announced a new plan to buy $1 billion worth of stock back. i think it will go to 215. him a buyer from 165 through 150 with the closing derail -- at 140. i think there's a good upside even from here. >> let's get to palo alto network cyber security firm. what do you think of this one? >> i am a buyer. one of the biggest cyber security firms in the world. they've done a really good job integrating a.i. with products and services. they've had a really nice bump in annual recurring revenue. i think it is potentially a $500 per share stock. we will see what happens but i think it goes back to 400, or hundred 50, maybe as high as 500. i would have closing below 315.

>> thank you so much for being with us. we appreciate it. we appreciate it. so the dow is down about 40 points continuing a string of losses. thanks for watching power lunch, everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now . >> thanks so much for watching "closing bell." the conference here in san francisco, california, schwab at's chief strategist liz ann saunders will join us. and ahead we will talk to the incoming ceo rick as well. in the meantime, let me show you the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation and until the video reports. stocks are lower today although healthcare materials and energy have been higher throughout the day.