tv Power Lunch CNBC November 21, 2024 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
2:00 pm
♪ (vo) with verizon, trade in any phone, any condition, and get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence. on us. and ipad and apple watch series 10. all, three on us. only on verizon. ♪ welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly, i'm tyler. welcome. markets are moving higher this afternoon. the dow up 500 points thanks in large part to salesforce and goldman sachs. and nvidia has now turned
2:01 pm
positive following its earnings out yesterday. we are looking ahead at the next challenges the company faces trying to continue to clear ever higher expectations. . a good report. we will see what's next. >> even a 1% sell-off, you have to say think did it given how big the company is, how high the expectations are. a lot riding on it. we will focus on nvidia and the companies in its orbit. everyone is also talking about bitcoin 100k which could happen any moment now. we had a little bit of a sell the news event when be found out that gary gensler will be stepping down january 20th. so 98,000 and change. >> that was the news, i guess. >> you would say, for sure it will hit 100 on that. i think that speculation was built into the performance already. >> and maybe the ultimate sign of frothiness, a crypto entrepreneur bought the banana duct-taped to the wall for $6 million. they call this art. the most expensively priced banana ever. >> you can be provocative,
2:02 pm
memorable, you can be -- >> foolish? >> you can be foolish. >> a lot of things with a banana and duct tape. >> we will break it down. >> there you go. also breaking news this afternoon. matt gaetz has officially withdrawn from consideration for attorney general saying he did not want to be a distraction. >> all right. well, that distraction goes away after he toured, i guess, capitol hill yesterday and got some feedback from some of the senators. but out goes mr. gaetz for now. >> the reason the markets is paying attention to this, for other more controversial nominees like rfk at hhs moving the stocks, trying to game to out the odds of the nominations passing or not. so him taking himself out the running either makes it a little bit harder for some of those candidates to go through or easier. i don't know. but you did see the market rise a little bit in the kind of as that news was digesting. >> back now to nvidia. the stock has turned higher but still off the record high, just shy of $153 a share hit after
2:03 pm
the opening bell. kristina joins us for a look at the next big challenges nvidia faces. welcome back. >> thank you. >> if you had to sum the report and look ahead to the challenges that this company may face, what would you say they are? >> successful, but that success is their own -- not demise, but hurdle for the near term. i say that because investors need to get used to he release of new a.i. chips every year could lead to inevitable bumpiness in the result. it's not about finding the buyers. it's ramping up production. custom chips, the integration of all of those systems, quote, nothing short of a miracle according to the ceo jensen huang yesterday and needing almost every company in the world for the spain. so much focus on the blackwell chips that gaming chips took a back seat. but the ceo said yesterday on the call we'll be back on track
2:04 pm
with more supplies, turn the corner in the new year. let's talk about the earnings call. both the ceo and cfo emphasized the rollout of the chips are on track, sales would be limited the next few quarters -- >> supply? >> exactly. >> can't keep up? >> not them. think of the suppliers that they are using. >> feeding that the ecosystem. >> yeah, these are very complex designs. so they have a little snag with the yields, things slow down. they went from zero to guiding over a few billion dollars for blackwell next quarter. gross margins taking a hit. that increases production cost, hurts the margin. the growth narrative remains intact. you have so many bullish calls ton this company. nvidia's ceo if you wonder about any catalyst for the stock because it's been moving sideways the last several months, you are like should i get in at this point, you have december 2 to 6, aws event.
2:05 pm
that is a competitor with their own chips. then the ceo speaking at ces and ubs and should get blackwell commentary. >> you educated me about a term of art called annual cadence. that means that the company will be bringing out new chips on an annual basis. >> chips or products that go within the system. the blackwell family. >> what is the advantage and disadvantage there? >> you get them hooked. the ecosystem. the greatest comparison is apple phones. you get the apple mac -- >> people waiting to buy? >> yes, a transition period from the hopper family to blackwell family. so one set of products -- >> the hoppers and plaque wells? >> yes. >> like a feud. >> yeah. that transition happens every single year. so it's great because they are hooking everyone on to the products and they provide the chips and the networking, all of the switches, the software, but
2:06 pm
at one point there has to be a wall. how often do we continuously buy the next iteration and phen if i were jensen huang his response would be, well, there s $2 trillion of old data centers that need to be not renovated but upgraded. there is an opportunity for such a long amount of time that they could be first in the game for quite a while. >> all right. stay with us and explore about what's next for nvidia. citi out with a note today initiating a positive catalyst watch. i like that language. leading up to the ces tech event in january, you mentioned it a moment ago, jensen huang is set to deliver a keynote speech potentially a time to reveal its next generation of chips. for more on the next catalyst and challenges for nvidia, daniel newman. he is the ceo there, what do you say? you have some reactions about what the next challenge may be for the very, very successful company?
2:07 pm
>> yeah, the only result that was acceptable was beyond perfect. they beat on every number, the guide. the beats on the guide have gotten small early the law of large numbers, the execution is fantastic. there was more smoke than fire when it came to the overheating. and the company is directionally in a very sound place. it was a tidy quarter, well executed. we are up against this era of generational upgrades. so you heard kristina talk about annual cadences. this isn't exactly like an iphone moment because you are talking about asking, you know, microsoft, google, amazon to spend 50, $60 billion contiguously and continuously year over year to continue to upgrade. there is an element of fomo here. they have to stay up to date, have to have the most advanced technology to be competitive in the next ears of generative a.i. capabilities. >> can you talk about the opportunities with the inferencing piece of this that
2:08 pm
our analyst last hour said most people are focused on data center and the chips themselves, but what if -- is it hopper? what if this business becomes larger? >> inferencing has been one of the things that many people said nvidia that's not nvidia or that's the small part, training company. they are the largest provider now. inference is that workload that everyone talks about. when you are doing tokens, using generative tools, when you hear about the agenetic workloads, that's the inference side, the ability to generate text or generate a video. so all of these massive data centers being built out with nvidia are powerful to not just train the future models but deliver inference. the workloads will revolution things like enterprise apps. we are at the end of the era of sass as we know it. some people see it and some don't. >> we are all glancing at each other because even people -- that's a controversial sort of thesis in the market. we have the software stocks sell
2:09 pm
off hard, obviously. they -- even look at san antonio flake today. i don't know if that's -- you guys know this business better than me. is there a future for a salesforce, you know, for these highly competitive businesses or it sounds like you are saying not so much? >> kelly, what you are seeing is an opportunity for pivot. these companies are making big pivots. agent force. i spent time this week with satya nadella. they are rethinking about the ui. we are in an era where an application will be generated right before our eyes. you will be able to point an application at all this data and all this powerful compute that nvidia and that these other companies, amd, you know, microsoft, amazon, they are building their own, but this compute power allows an application to be generated before our eyes. it will know what data to be looking at, be able to create something very personalized. this is that 2.0 era of a.i. that jensen huang is talking about. so the app companies are going to have to evolve. we still need it. we still need the data fabric
2:10 pm
from companies like snowflake. but the app ecosystem, nobody really loves using their business application. we use it because we have to. but the data there is really important and having that data being accessible and then utilized in a way that's meaningful and can generate actions through agents is the exciting future. these companies will have to evolve or we will see new companies rise. >> let me get you to tie it off. if i heard daniel correctly, he seemed to say the question is can the big companies like the microsofts and others continue to spend at the 50, $60 billion run rate that they are doing now, or can they afford not to? >> they can eventually afford not to. they will look at the roi at some point they have to stop, right. so many of them have been increasing. right now with the latest report 50% of data center revenues came fra cloud service providers. that's great. it's driving so much demand for nvidia.
2:11 pm
at some point these large very wealthy companies are going to, you know, break off from nvidia. so that is a concern in the long term. especially when they are spending so much now to be the first. you had jensen huang talk about delivering these chips already. these are beginning chips. it's -- there is a wall at one point when everybody wants to be that ecosystem within themselves and not rely on the big player like nvidia which is why nvidia is trying to diversify. networking, gaming, other avenues, software are ways for nvidia to keep its stronghold on customers and keep that personal advantage. >> fantastic conversation. good to have you back. and daniel, thank you, my friend. good to have you here. >> thank you. still to come, that initial decline in nvidia gave investors a pause just for a moment but only the briefest of moments. the dow up 510 points. the nasdaq granted is barely positive. has the tech trade grown stronger than nvidia alone? and where does the expanding
2:12 pm
crypto trade fit in? we will discuss next. and here is a quick power check on the plus side of the s&p. today's super micro, here it is again, swinging back from yesterday's decline. up 15%. on the negative side, alphabet. pushing for google to break off the chrome browser. shares down 6%. much more comingp. u
2:13 pm
2:14 pm
drop everything and get some magic of your own t. rowe price. during the xfinity black friday sale. xfinity internet customers, our best deals of the year are back! switch to xfinity mobile and get your choice of a free 5g phone, plus your next unlimited line free for a year. get amazing savings and connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go with xfinity mobile. fly don't walk to get our best deals of the year. connect to the world of wicked this holiday, only in theaters november 22nd.
2:15 pm
snu welcome back to "power lunch." of course, watching bitcoin to see if it crosses $100,000. right now it's around 98,800. continuing to generate interest. is there too much enthusiasm? our next guest says investors should expand their portfolios beyond big tech and speculative assets. he is talking energy, utilities and financials. sounds reasonable. partner at wee wall street alliance group. it's kind of fun to be with the innovation.
2:16 pm
people want to be where the wig gains are, transformational wealth building gains and not picking away at energy stocks or whatever. >> this onboarding, right? i think that logical a lot of investors are not diversified. if you are investing in the s&p 500, you are not diversified. you are 40% in tech. we started seeing this since july 10 that the nasdaq has been underperforming the broader markets in sectors like utilities, financials and energy. so i think investors should focus right now in this environment to broaden their exposure into those sectors. >> if i am an indexer and as you point out, if i do an s&p 500 fund on 40% in technology, should i do an equal weighted index as opposed to a cap weighted one? >> that would be a better approach. if you are just putting all your money in the s&p 500 you are more than 40% in tech. and if the tech sector takes a pull back, you are very susceptible to major drawdowns.
2:17 pm
it makes sense to cautiously improve the portfolio so when the markets comes down, you have protection. >> should i, sticking with that theme, should i have an s&p 500 fund entirely and go for something like a schwab 1,000 or wilshire two thour something broader and has small caps? people are critical of small caps. well, it's been coming for 30 years. hasn't been here. what to you say to that? >> well, i would say that i think you could feel that the era is more from active management. you should look at some individual stocks to improve the risk-adjusted returns of your portfolio. and look at other areas of the market that ar relatively undervalued. for example, if you look at the banks, right, this sector is going to benefit from lower rates, more investment banking activity. >> and deregulation. >> deregulation. steepening yield curves. lending is going to be more profitable. if you look at bank like goldman
2:18 pm
sachs, not only do they benefit from greater investment banking activities, if you look at the asset and wealth management division, $3 trillion in assets, which is going to groh as the market goes up. adding exposure in these types of companies would make sense. >> where else should we be looking? what else do you like? >> utilities. we have spoken about it on the show before. but i think with the trump administration coming, there is going to be more investment in artificial intelligence. >> well, i'm chuckling. you know, if this were five years ago, yeah, boring utilities. it's a rate play. now you are like, don't go to nvidia but it's okay to go to the utilities. >> the worst performs seccer last year was utilities. >> that's surprising. technology has been on the scene. >> people didn't realize that. so we have been talking about it since the beginning of the year. that played out well.
2:19 pm
i think with the new administration with greater focus on artificial intelligence and crypto that consumes a lot of electricity, deregulation also benefiting that space. we continue to like that. >> where does crypto fit in an individual's portfolio? >> so we actually have indirect exposure. we have indirect exposure and we think utilities gives that ex poke r poesh you're to our clients. we like other areas like energy, for example, which also benefit right now because of deregulation. i think sticking with that theme. more drilling products or companies like exxonmobil, conocophillips, which pay a great dividend also. that's what we like. >> all right. thanks for your time today. >> thank you. up next, home sales surging in october before mortgage rates jumped a bit. we will explore the housing spacnee xt. (♪♪)
2:20 pm
(♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪) humana medicare advantage plans. carry this card and you could have the power to unlock benefits beyond original medicare. these are convenient plans that offer all of the benefits of original medicare, plus extra coverage and benefits. with a humana medicare advantage plan, you could get doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. with zero-dollar copays on hundreds of prescriptions. most plans include dental coverage, including zero-dollar copays for covered preventive services. vision coverage, with eye exams and an allowance for eyewear. even hearing benefits, with routine hearing exams
2:21 pm
and coverage toward hearing aids. that's more than you get with original medicare. but it gets even better. because humana offers zero-dollar or low monthly plan premiums. you'll also get, zero-dollar copays for routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. zero-dollar copays for telehealth visits. and zero-dollar copays for in-network preventive services. plus, worldwide coverage for emergency and urgent care when you travel. and, medicare advantage plans ensure your covered medical costs, including all doctor and emergency care, will never go above a maximum out-of-pocket amount that you know beforehand. imagine benefits like these in one convenient plan! plus, you'll have access to humana's multiple large plan networks of doctors, hospitals and pharmacies. so, if you want more from medicare, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that could give you extra coverage and benefits. including coverage for doctor, hospital, and prescription drugs. plus, a cap on your out-of-pocket medical
2:22 pm
costs. and most plans include coverage for dental, vision, even hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. even help you enroll over the phone. call today and we'll also send this free guide. but now is the time. the annual enrollment period ends december 7th! humana. a more human way to healthcare. ♪ welcome back to "power lunch." trump media and technology group which owns truth social filed an application on monday for service dub truth find.
2:23 pm
it's a cryptocurrency payment processing platform to trade in digital assets. this comes after a report from the ft that said the company was considering acquiring a publicly traded crypto exchange that specializes in b-to-b payments. back to you. >> trying to capitalize on crypto and their high share price. thank you. and welcome back to "power lunch." dow is holding on to a 500 point gain this afternoon. the strongest of the major averages. the nasdaq barely positive as nvidia is weighing somewhat. home builders came out of the woodwork last month on a drop in mortgage rates. sales of previously owned homes rose 3 % from september. that was the first annual increase in more than three years, belief it tore not. now that mortgage rates are back on the rise, my guest thinks housing stocks will feel the pressure. tony zhang from options plate. . we spoke to home building analysts lately who are bullish,
2:24 pm
constructive. maybe you are not feeling the same way and what trade in particular are you thinking about here? >> yeah, i certainly understand why analysts bullish. mortgage rates are back on the rise here. you saw d.r. horton break below that major support level at 170. the next level doesn't exist until around 140. there is some significant downside where we are here today. >> d.r. horton below a range that you think is significant. would you short them? are they the only one? >> no, i don't think they are the only one. yeah, i think that this is now a time you can take a newt raul to bearish view. that's something you can do utilizing options instead of taking outright bearish position. the trade struck schur a call spread. out to the january 3rd weekly expiration and looking at selling the 165, 175 call vertical here collecting $3.80. this allows me to potentially
2:25 pm
profit even if the stock stays where it is below that major support level around 1 # 70. . both scenarios of staying put or moving lower, i profit from this type of trade structure. >> are you considering that with other home building names or names in kind of the home building products or furniture areas? >> you certainly can. however, d.r. horton is the largest by market company and home builders are not particularly large companies frchlt from a liquiditity perspective, i think the maul smaller names, you know, the liquidity on those options are not as great. so i prefer trading d.r. horton using a home builder. you can use the etf as well to potentially play the same structure. >> as we showed earlier, if the stock climbs higher, d.r. horton, that is, you would lose money on this trade. at what point do you pull the
2:26 pm
plug? >> at 170. we are below 170. above that from may perspective i think that the thesis is incorrect. likely at that point, i think you have a good case for home builders and i would get out of this trade. >> now i am going to be watching it. that's on the dashboard. i will be thinking of you in the weeks to come. thanks for your time. and that's it for market navigator. beyond nvidia, three other stock stories. google's legal battle, one of them. deere sales drop and starbucks. three stock lunch is next.
2:27 pm
2:29 pm
♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "power lunch." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. u.s. officials say russia prenotified the u.s. of nuclear risk reduction channels before it struck ukraine overnight with an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile. vice president said the launch was in response to ukraine using
2:30 pm
u.s. long-range missiles in russia earlier this week. meanwhile, a new u.s. ballistic missile offense base opened in northern poland. russia warned today the new base will only raise the overall level of nuclear danger. military sources say the defense system can only be used against missiles fired from the middle east. and the house passed the measure today that gives the treasury department authority to strip the tax-exempt status of nonprofits accused of supporting terrorism. some nonprofits have expressed concerns that the bill would allow presidential administrations to target groups they disagree with, including news outlets and universities. the proposal's future is uncertain, however, in the currently democratic-controlled senate. back over to you. >> thank you very much. time for a deluxe three stock lunch. we will get stories on three stocks in the news from our
2:31 pm
reporter team. steve, simi and kate. then today's trader -- will give his take on the stock. let's start with you, steve, on alphabet and what's going on there. whatever it is, it's going to play out over a period it would seem maybe of years. >> yeah, that's right. we will get into the timeline in a second. last night we got that sweeping list suggested remedies from the department of justice in that antitrust trial that google lost. the big one here forcing google to divest the chrome web browser. chrome of course a major key to dominance in search across the web, has the largest market share with google search with gmail, youtube, and others built in. divesting android, the operating system for mobile devices. the doj also admits that would be difficult to do. those getting the most attention this week as these reports trickled out, another important element that would impact other
2:32 pm
companies especially apple. the doj recommends ending google's practice of paying companies like apple to be the default search engines on devices or other web browsers. that would be a huge pit to apple's services business, filings showing google paid apple a whopping $20 billion in 2022, but payments can vary based how many people are using google search on iphones. still that would be more it than a fifth of apple's total services revenue based on the recent report. kent walker, google's top lawyer, responded last night to the doj's recommendations. he pointed out it would hurt smaller companies like mow sfwlil a. they make the firefox web browser a and rely on the google payments to keep the lights on. of course, there is also no immediate threats to those companies. just recommendations right now from the department of justice. the judge will ultimately have to decide which remedies to apply here and the appeals process from google, that's expected to drag out for years. so no immediate impact to any of
2:33 pm
those names we just said. >> thank you very much. quint, you own alphabet. are you adding to your position given today's pull back? what do you make of these legal matters? >> yeah, you thanks for having me, tyler, on this deluxe edition today. we are not adding today, but i would not opposed if it continues to be a beyer, if anybody has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pull back in a great, great business, now is your opportunity. there was an interesting note out from baird today. they talked about whether this was even going to be possible. i am not an antitrust lawyer so i couldn't add any credence to that. the healthy is alphabet's an unbelievable company. they have no debt. $45 billion in cash. trading at a very reasonable multiple. 18 times forward. they have grown that e.p.s. 20% the last five years. everybody wants a pull back in a great stock. when it comes, they are scared to pull the trigger. we are getting it that now.
2:34 pm
so again this would be a great opportunity, if we didn't own it, we would be a beyer.uyer. we will add nor google or alphabet on this pull back. >> i hope they come up with some good counter recommendations because as a user, chrome is, you know, i enjoy it. to deere. shares all-time high today after they topped fourth quarter estimates and details how they would be affected by tariffs. seema mody. >> heard. expectations low going into this report after deere's competitors slashed their respective outlooks. john deere acknowledging that the market remains challenged but pledged that they will make next year a year of discipline as farmers pull back on purchases. yes, when deere's ceo was asked about the prospect of tariffs and a potential change to immigration policy, he made the point that deere is insulated with 75% of all products it sells in the u.s. assembled domestically by 30,000 employees
2:35 pm
across multiple states. remember president-elect trump has threatened to slap deere with tariffs if more production is moved to mexico. it seems like investors what they liked what they heard, the stock on track for the best day since august of country. the average price target is $425, which is lower than where it's trading now at 441. >> wow, thank you very much. seema mody. you have a position in this name. you must be feeling good. are you going to add more? >> yeah. sort of like alphabet a little bit, kelly. we'll wait, we won't chase the move today. but we will wait for a little bit of a pull back. this is a great example of a report that was not priced in. we are seeing a lot of reports that are priced in, they are beating nvidia, obviously, and pug back. people are scratching their head. this was not priced in. i mean, they are reported 455. the whisper was 419. they were reported 11 billion,
2:36 pm
which was declined quarter-over-quarter revenue but it was well above the 9 billion expectation. when that is not priced in, you get what you are seeing today which is an 8% move higher. an absolute dominant move. this has been capped because there has been speculation, you know, what about the 100% tariff if they move to mexico. i don't think that's going to happen. the ceo made it very clear they are very proud of what's made in the united states. so we think this is an opportunity to stock to go higher from here. they have a tremendous amount of debt. that has been a concern in the past. they managed very well. any pull back we would be buyer. >> and finally starbucks shares moving higher today after reports suggesting the company could sell a stake in the china business to a local partner turning around the china business has been a top priority for the new ceo brian niccol. hey, kate. >> hey, so in response to that story from bloomberg, starbucks telling cnbc in a statement we
2:37 pm
are working to find the best path to growth which includes exploring strategic partnerships. now, for context, brian niccol has yet to visit the market as ceo and needs to meet with the team and get an understanding of the business and market dynamics. he has been vo focused on the u.s. business. i asked him last month about options in china after earnings. he told me there is, quote, a lot of growth in the starbucks china business and how we capture it and the partnership we potentially take on while we do that is still to be determined. reminder. same-store sales in china fell by 14% last quarter. i spoke with andrew charles this morning who said there are two potential scenarios for investors. if you are bullish on carolina, you want starbucks to maintain the stakes. waiting out without selling off you reap the benefits of improvements in that market. if you are cautious, does starbucks sell now, derisk the business and have nichols focus be more so on turning the u.s. business around and it remains to be seen what the company
2:38 pm
decides to do. shares up under 2%. >> kate, thank you. now how are you trading starbucks, sir? >> i am not. i wouldn't touch it. you are in an environment. a bull market, so many stocks working. i don't know why i would put capital behind a turnaround play. nichols got his work cut out for him. a terrible balance sheet. negative book value. earnings are declining. multiples are too high. personally they should sell the china interest and use that capital to shore up the balance sheet. i just don't see any rush here or any desire to venture in until there is a real meaningful fundamental turnaround in the story. then you can go in. i love the coffee. i don't love the stock. >> wow, that is really one of the great stock stories the last generation and what you say there is certainly not an endorsement. >> i am surprised he loves the coffee. >> he likes the coffee. >> love the coffee. >> i will buy you a latte.
2:39 pm
thank you. >> appreciate it. >> i will buy you, you know, anything. i don't know. that's just me. thank you. as we go to break, the energy space. nat gas is seeing prices climb year end at 3.3 million btus. a bit of a fill up there for the nat gas plays which have been under some pressure. although the commodity is up 33% year to date. "power lunch" will be right ckba.
2:40 pm
2:42 pm
lunch." check out stocks today. mixed bag. higher on the session across the board. the dow up 500 points, the nasdaq up a fifth of 1% as nvidia is weighing slightly, and the bond market we have seen chicago fed president talking about rates lower next year than they are now, giving a bit of a lift to stocks this afternoon. rick santelli, we have heard this before, rick. >> yeah, i wonder why he thinks rates will be lower next year? you know, there was a question on philly fed today, the information was out this morning, and the question was, what do you think inflation will be for the next several quarters
2:43 pm
for your products and the consumer? their answer was 3%. their answer in august was 2.75. we will get to that in a minute. our guest, jerome snyder from pimco, we will be showing charts of the dow, s&p and nasdaq post-election. european and chinese stock markets post-election are lower. interest rates fit in. we haven't been outliers with any other countries. what do you think about the markets post-election? >> clearly the investor is focused on the near-term. growth out looks and looking where policy implications where be in the near-term. it's difficult to handicap. we should say take a step back, look at the second derivative effects. they will take a little bit longer to materialase. inflation will be a key component. it can influence how companies allocate capital, what the profitability is on a monetary policy basis clearly we will see a federal reserve which is going to be more focused on inflation than they have in the recent
2:44 pm
past. and that might ultimately mean that rates stay in this region for a little bit longer and maybe that destination instead of being 3% or 3.5% is closer to 3.5% or 4% or so. >> the old days we used to say that the magic bullet, greenspan used to say this was productivity. i think the new magic word is growth. what do you think? >> without growth you need to be focused on the longer term about nominal growth. it helps to offset some of the deficit financing coming into play not only this year and next year and 2026 but longer term circumstances. as the united states looks to finance its deficit, we want to think about the relative value opportunities across the entire yield curve. that's more susceptible for maturesties further out because they take in can inflation premiums, credit premiums. growth acquiesce, reduces the fears the u.s. won't be able to pay back the debts longer term.
2:45 pm
near-term, stay at the front end of the yield curve because of the fair valuations -- >> not as steep as i thought. two-year note yields almost kept up with the rise in longer rates. another topic. when i consider what's going on in the wld with regard to the new changes that are happening once the new president gets sworn in, we know that probably less regulation, but the other issue i think we need to concentrate on here is what's going to happen ultimately with the consumer? when the government says you have to buy this car, can't have this appliance, i think when we bring more consumer choice in, that consumer choice is going to be deflationary. your thoughts? >> we will get some data in the real term, see cpi numbers, see michigan indicators and clearly inflation is going to be top of focus. i think what we have to focus on is longer term those inflation metrics not 2% like the fed expects, might be 2.5%. and all of that might seem modest. we have to calculate that in,
2:46 pm
too, how corporations take into account pricing power for inputs and investors have think about where that comes in to produce real after inflation returns, and that's where ultimately the income part of fixed income is particularly attractive today. when we are thinking about inflation metric, yes, some may be deflationary. the totality of the picture a much more balanced view that may not land us at 2%. >> talking about tariffs, i understand it. we have no idea what the reality with tariff landscape is down the road. the final surprise, we want to give viewers, we know where fed funds are right now. what's your surprise for our viewers. >> the first time since 2022, the aggregate yield on the aggregate index or bonds is higher than the fed funds index suggesting it that investors need to think more about getting out of cash and more fixed income at this point. >> excellent advice. always a pleasure. tyler and the gang, back to you. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. after the break, trump's tax
2:47 pm
cuts coming with too steep a price? a divide is forming over republicans how to approach the estimated $5 trillion cost for extending those 2017 tax cuts. that story is next. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street invest in your future with dia, the only etf that tracks the dow. (♪♪)
2:48 pm
(intercom) t minus 10... the only etf that tracks the dow. (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming. ♪ (vo) with verizon, trade in any phone, any condition. and get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence. get four on us. only on verizon.
2:50 pm
♪ welcome back to "power lunch." extending the 2017 tax cuts expected it to cost something on the order of $5 trillion. now a split is growing among republicans on how to pay for those tax cuts or even whether to pay for them. emily wilkins is looking at this upcoming deficit battle. >> hey, tyler. yeah, republicans are aiming to get this major tax passenger done in the first 100 days that extends that 2017 tax law set to expire the end of 2025. one of the first things they need to figure out is how to pay for this package. now, a full extension of the tax cuts and credits would add $5 trillion to the deficit over ten years according to the
2:51 pm
non-congressional budget office. some lawmakers, including mike crapo, who oversees it as chair of the finance committee, are disputing that taxes need to be offset given that most of it is a continuation of current policy. but slim margins into the house and senate mean that it could exert influence that they are deficit neutral. caught up with congressmen who don't want a tax bill to add to the national debt at 36 trillion and growing. >> we need to make sure we are not having -- not only is the deficit neutral, but that it's reducing the deficit. i am going to be a voice for saying they need to be factored in. >> we can't keep increasing the deficit. 37 and counting. not counting interest. we can't keep that going. face it now or we face the consequences with the american people. >> lawmakers are considering a number of ways to raise the
2:52 pm
revenue. that includes cutting tax credits to electric vehicles, using funds raised by tariffs to offset tax cuts and entitlement programs like medicare and medicaid. lawmakers say at the moment everything is on the table. this is set to become one of the first major debates over the 2025 tax battle. guys. >> yeah. >> thank you very much. >> maybe the central debate. now this is bananas. the art market might be going a little crazy because the duct tape banana just sold for $6.2 million after being sold for $120,000 five years ago. what does it tell us as a sign of the times? >> do yohau ve to replace the banana regularly there? robert frank will explain. catch the markets on today and every week doyon "closing bell." with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills,
2:53 pm
you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many
2:54 pm
people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you. one that fits your needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and
2:55 pm
when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. ♪
2:56 pm
welcome back. yes, bitcoin is nearing 100,000. that gives people the sense maybe there is some funny money any to play with. an insider paid $6 million and didn't even get the banana. what to we mean? robert frank has this outrageous story. >> it is crazy. sotheby's calling it the most expensive banana ever sold. six bidders battling last night for the famous duct-taped banana. the formal name is comedian, by the italian artist maurizio cattelan. it went viral in 2019 when if first appeared in miami, attracted massive crowds on social media. there were three editions sold for $120,000. the beyer for the $6 million banana was justin sun, the chinese born crypto investor. he purchased a $20 million picasso a few years ago and a big player in nfts. what do you get? a roll of duct tape, instructions on installing the
2:57 pm
banana, and a certificate of authenticity. the banana as you just mentioned will have to be continually replaced and provided bit owner. in a statement sun saying the piece bridges the world of art, memes in the cryptocurrency community. he said he would eat the banana in the coming days as part of his unique artistic experience. $1 billion of art, including $121 million for this at christie's and sotheby's saying a monet water lilly for $65 million. for more where the wealthy are investing my inside wealth newsletter out today, cnbc.com/insidewealth. also doesn't come with a banana. >> banana supplied separately. this is a sign of the coming of the apocalypse. the end of civilization. >> remember when david letterman did the top ten? this is among the top ten signs that the world is going crazy. >> could you do this with a pear
2:58 pm
or tomato and command the same price? >> what you are buying is -- >> tape. >> tape and the installation instructions. >> who needs instructions? using some language. >> tape has to be -- what you are buying, tyler, the idea from this famous artist. maurizio cattelan is a famous prankster, cultural icon, and so you are buying a certificate, there are only three of these, that say your banana on the wall with your duct tape is in fact not just any banana and duct tape, "the mauritanian" duct tape banana. >> make art great again. is that so much to ask for? you know, things in general -- >> i wanted to show the monet water lilly because that is art and those things are selling at higher prices as they should. i would, however, say the person who bought this for $120,000 in 2019, everyone said that guy is an idiot.
2:59 pm
listen, that guy is an idiot. his return is five times what the s&p is over the same period -- sorry, and twice as good as nvidia's stock over the same period. we could say it's crazy, but maybe in five years it will resell for 30. who knows? >> it's because of this guy, maurizio cattelan, that makes it -- if i did it, it wouldn't be worth that. >> i would consider very valuable, tyler, if you did it. but maybe you could try with a tomato or apple or mango. >> do people in the art world think this is a sign of froth? you know the bitcoin money. you mentioned the nft -- >> in my newsletter, my parents are artists. i grew up in the art world. i find this absurd and outrageous. i interviewed for my newsletter today, which people can get, three art experts on what they think of the banana. and they all think it's genius. >> well, because it's
3:00 pm
conviction. i am so sick of iconic. how about beautiful? how about something transcendent? >> right. the definition of art for some people is an idea that goes viral globally. and this idea like it or not went viral. and proved the artist's point. he was trying the art market he did in a way he didn't intend. >> turn it into banana bread. thank you. thank you for watching. >> thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell" i'm scott wapner live from one market in san francisco. this big day in the markets. let's take you to the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. dow up more than 500 at its high and up nearly 550. the russell ridge as well. nasdaq higher as nvidia taking a breather following its earnings report and may close positive, though, and we will keep a close eye on it as it is now green. we're watching uber.
24 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on