tv Squawk Box CNBC November 25, 2024 6:00am-9:00am EST
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ii. take your pick. details straight ahead. monday, november 25th. it's like a mini barbenheimer. squawk box begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in time square. if you check out u.s. equity futures you'll see as joe mentioned the dow is up by over 300 points above fair value. got the s&p futures up by about 31. nasdaq indicated up by 134. that's adding to the gains we've seen this month.
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if you take a look at the markets for the month of november as we enter this final trading week, dow is up by about 6%. the s&p is up by more than 4.5%. the nasdaq is up by 5%. treasury yields taming down a little bit. this is something some people have been attributing to that new announcement of the treasury secretary that president trump is putting in on this. right now you see the ten year sitting at 4.34. two year is there as well. if you've been watching bitcoin. again, ever so close to 100,000. right now 98,402. also new overnight. china kept its medium term lending rates steady as the country seeks to stabilize the yuan china's currency has been falling against the dollar. this morning it's sitting at 7.24. >> morning, guys. mean time, president-elect trump picking hedge fund executive scott bessent to be
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his treasury secretary. bessent was on squawk box the morning after the election. >> you can't say a tax cut is inflation mare and a tariff is also inflationary. so i don't think they're necessarily inflationary. we are going to see deregulation, which is disinflationary. we're going to see president trump said he wants to get energy prices down. disinflationary. and then tariffs are a one time price adjustment. >> guys, lots of stories over the weekend about what seemed like a knife fight playing out down in mar-a-lago for this role. macrowin flying in from china to meet with the president at one point. kevin warsh in the hot seat as well as a possibility. a lot of back and forth. howard lutnick who ultimately became the commerce secretary.
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trying to drive a wedge between himself and scott bessent. appears ultimately president trump chose bessent because in part he felt the loyalty from bessent from the beginning. and that they could work best together. going to be very interesting now to see how we see bessent and how he works with him and how far he takes some of these things. one of the things so interesting when he talked about on our program was the issue of tariffs but effectively how you might have to implement them on a slow basis so you don't impact the economy. some of the other kinds of steps that the president has talked about. it's going to be an interesting one to watch. >> he hadn't been -- we hadn't seen a lot of him. it was about a month ago i think when we had him on and he was on set. then we had him on again, obviously. first time he was on he was so outspoken and so plain spoken about supporting trump. i think as you were calling, i asked are you not on social
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media. how come you're so brave to be able to do this as a business. when we'd have a series of trump bashers on. who can we get the take the other side what about that guy bessent. bring him back. when they decided it was going to be him and it was weird because we were talking about who it was. we knew he was going to be on and he was coming out possible transportation secretary. i wanted him right from the start. i just thought he was -- i thought he had the right ideas about how to merge some of the stuff that's not classic conservatism with the environment that we're in right now. we're globally free trade has hurt. it has bored out a lot of what we used to make in this country. then we went through this unbelievable what would you call it? we went from this guy to this
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guy to this guy. they're flying in. >> keeps his own count. this is where he was leaning i think from the beginning. these huge campaigns and a lot of people including elon musk and others trying to persuade him to do other things publicly. he came back to what he felt comfortable with and somebody who had been with him for a while. you heard in that clip we played bessent talking about things like things that wouldn't be counter inflationary. planning 3 million more barrels of oil a day that comes through on some of these issues. you heard him talking about those things and the idea of trying to merge together as you mentioned, joe, these trade tariffs that come through. sounds like he's going to be somebody who is looking at this as negotiation. >> we went through larry kudlow. lutnick, i love howard. >> other names too. many remain namelessably was
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ecstatic. returning to that. >> kevin warsh. come back up in 2026. >> kevin's name will come up for the fed chair. >> right. right. right. i just. >> which by the way is the job he wanted anyway. >> kevin is independent. i'd hate to see him have to bend -- i don't know. i just don't know if that's a perfect fit or not. but we'll see. i know that couple of years ago when powell was first appointed he wished obviously that it had been him. this guy is not going to be ec commissioner. dan gallagher that served as an sec commissioner has removed himself from consideration to lead the sec in this trump administration. gallagher is currently a top lawyer at robinhood markets. he said it's an honor to have his name in the mix but he's
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committed to robinhood. opens it up for cuban. guys. >> did you see dr. marty mccary at fda. >> he's out there. >> turns out stuff people were saying whoa. he said a lot of stuff. >> he said a lot of stuff that was not allowed on twitter in the old twitter. and now -- >> he's coming at it from a reasonable position. >> there was a time when it wasn't considered reasonable marty makary. >> i don't know. he's -- i don't know. >> it's quite a -- this is as early as anyone's picked all 15 or whatever. >> i think he wants to hit the ground. president-elect trump wants to hit the ground running. ran into problems in his last administration coming through trying to get things up and running. he's ready to go. got a big agenda and things he wants to get done. we should mention it was a big
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weekend at the box office. universal's wicked brought in $114 million in north american ticket sales. that's the highest ever debut for a broadway adaptation. gladiator ii brought in below the expectations of 60 to $80 million. both of those films are expected to continue to drive ticket sales at theaters throughout thanksgiving and christmas. two movies i want to see and haven't seen yet. the other one is disney's moana 2 that comes out on wednesday. s it expected to happen haul in $100 million over the thanksgiving five day period. that's probably the first we'll get to see. >> used to hear about universal and they'd have big -- now, i don't know. whatever. who cares. totally, totally kidding. totally kidding. sometimes i speak for all of us just in things you two will never say just to sort of --
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>> that's why we love you. go ahead. >> i'm only kidding. >> you stick your neck out there. >> there's always this smidge of truth in the joke. >> that's what i mean. that's what i mean. because, you know, there will come a day where we have a absolutely nothing to do with nbc universal. that day is coming. like our parents here. >> we have a lot more coming up on the broadcast this morning. huge show for you. stock futures as we mentioned before. talk strategy ahead of the opening bell. we'll do that next. by t wheay as we head to that break, take a look at the biggest premarket gainers in the s&p 500. complete with velvet smooth crema. for a satisfying moment unlike any other.
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welcome back to squawk box. want to take a look at the futures as we prepare for a shortened trading week. 303 points high other than the dow. hightower chief investment officer. steph,. >> morning. >> you think that's a scott bessent trade? is that the bessent bump? >> it could be. but i think we're just in a seasonly very strong period between now and the end of the year. just think about all the things that we just went through in the last three weeks. we went through the elections where we got an answer. most people thought we
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wouldn't. we had a fed cut. china stimulus. little warmer inflation. we had geopolitical issues get tensions increased. yet we had an atlanta fed tracker gdp number the latest number is at 2.6%. by the way, the &p 500 is up 3.9% in that period of time. we got through a lot of stuff. i think there was a lot of unknowns and uncertainties. now we know those things. that's a good thing. that is setting us up well between now and the end of the year for continued rally. >> that would be the bullish case and that would be the equities case. the bond market i think might be flashing red. i would argue the oil market would tell you we're in for a recession. there's these very interesting cross right now. >> i think the fixed income market is telling you that we are going to see a little bit higher growth under the trump
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administration. by the way, as i mentioned we're already seeing good growth. 2.6% is well above trend. bond market is saying you have that better growth you'll have a little more inflation. we are seeing a little higher inflation. core piece cpi and ppi last week or two weeks ago, that was with three handles. so it was pretty elevated. i don't think we're at run away inflation. i think we're going to see higher inflation. oil market is a function of china, to be honest with you. we got the china stimulus. that should hopefully stabilize the oil market. we have to see what's going to happen under the trump administration as well. maybe that's what the market is looking forward at in -- >> given how far the market has run. how much more does it have to run? does it have to run? is there a pull back? and if so what are you buying.
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>> i think there's always a chance of a pull back. 7% for the s&p 500. about 3% in the fixed income market. we're well above what the average is. sure we can see a pull back. i don't really see one between now and the end of the year. we have $6.4 trillions of money in money markets. cash and money markets at this point in time. i don't think it's all going to come into the equity market. there is that fear of missing out. you could see that happen. end of the day the most important thing if you have a two, two and a half percent economy. you're growing probably something like 8 to 10% in earnings because you have that margin lift as well. so what do i like? i like the consumer. i thought we got good data last week. walmart, we had good numbers from amazon in the retail world. costco.
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the off pricers. telling you the consumer's continuing to spend. that's good. manufacturing side we've been talking about ai, data center, power grid. you want to own freeport on the copper side if you're going to build out the grid you'll need copper for sure. you also had a call last week an analyst day from rockwell automation and they're talking about $1.8 trillion of mega projects around the world and only 16% of those have started. so think about that trend and that's a decade long theme in my mind. >> are you an owner of reeds given some of the big companies or are you more interested in the in copper or in some of the -- fiber. we talked to the corning folks a couple weeks ago. that kind of thing? >> there's so many ways of playing it. you can own something like
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nvidia or broadcom. on the infrastructure side we've talked about something like eaton or quantis or ge vernova. those stocks are up 50%. i point towards rock well because it's down 9% on the year. if you want to own some, there's a lot of ways of playing this theme. i think it's a decade long theme. you want to the have some involvement there. >> before i let you go what do you think of financials? they've been on a wild ride. a huge run on an expectation. all sorts of activities that's going to come next year. have they run too far? is this just the beginning? >> it's just the beginning. i am over weight the financials in a big way. first and foremost the valuations are not extreme. you're talking something like 1.2, 1.3 times book. 13, 14 times earnings. these companies have great
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earnings. probably the best earnings i've seen in about 20 years in terms of fee growth. market share growth. wealth management seeing an improvement because of better asset prices. if you add on deregulation, then if you add on oh by the way, end game and when hat comes out the companies are going to have to carry much less capital. many of them have said they're going to actually buy back stock as a result. in fact, brian moynihan said they'll be buying back $20 million the final results. i think all that bodes really well. in a way, we have not really seen big m&a. the pipelines are huge. now that you get these unknowns known, i think you'll see that pipeline start to lead to better activity. yeah, i'm still a big fan. >> stephanie, we love that you celebrate christmas early.
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i think more than anything else. that's part of all of this. thank you for giving us hope and optimism around the holidays. love it. thanks. >> happy thanksgiving. >> yeah. makes you feel real christmassy whenever that beautiful tree. coming up, new york city hotel rates seeing a record high. details after the break. later we'll talk technicals with fairlead's katie stockton. fixed income, energy, commodities and equities, to areas like climate risk and the entire lifecycle of a mortgage. to help inform trade decisions, our pricing and reference data covers millions of instruments in fixed income, our data can help re-imagine your workflow in energy, our oil and natural gas data is used by global traders, while our energy transition data helps navigate the shift to a low carbon economy. in mortgages, our data covers the life of a loan,
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night in september. yeah. bring the bedbug repellent. you can't get a room for -- >> you're thinking manhattan versus maybe all of. >> that's the average. so for every six or seven -- who is staying in 200. the $200 rooms, that's a half hour stay typically. that is apparently the highest monthly rate ever recorded in the city by analytics company costar since it began tracking in 1987. only place with more expensive hotels in september was maui. new york city tourism officials estimate that nearly 65 million people will visit the city this year. that's just shy of the more than 66 million people that visited in 2019. prepandemic. i'm feeling. >> itchy? >> no. i'm feeling that i got to separate my elitist views from what the average person -- when we think of where we'd stay in
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new york. >> you're thinking of right around here. >> sorkin can you imagine staying in a $400 hotel here? you get to make waffles for yourself at one of those crappy breakfasts. >> there's like a hilton garden just two blocks from us on 40th. >> that's not $400. >> there's that hilton garden. there's a days inn. that's what we're talking about. that you can get under $400 a pop on a good day. sometimes those places cost. >> you can't. >> when i ask you about olive garden you had to go back 30 years when the waitress slipped you her phone number. you have not been at a days inn in longer than that. so don't, you know, i may have been born at night. it wasn't last night. maybe on the road. maybe on the road. i have too. i've been in a holiday inn express on the road when you go. but, you know, around here you usually got like a butler where you stay, don't you?
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one of those? >> i think the big question -- >> i happen to live in new york. >> only time i know it is when they put me up when they have us out until 1:00 or 2:00 in the morning. >> $400 is a lot of money. >> it is. >> for a hotel room. >> staying in manhattan is a huge expense. >> it is. and dc. all these places are much more -- you know, you -- >> you're better off on the road. >> the 418 by the time you're done it's 618. >> taxes. >> fees and oh. >> that's the question. is that an all in number the 418? >> that's a good question. are taxes included? >> when we come back, apple ceo tim cook visiting beijing amid concerns of a potential trade disruption under president trump. we have the details after this break. the orlando pride won the women's soccer championship on saturday. the team owner mark wilf will
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to squawk box. we're live from it the nasdaq market site in times square. if you take a look at the futures you will see that the dow is indicated up by about 320 points. nasdaq is up by 126. s&p by just over 30 points. >> britain's financial regulator fining barclays nearly $51 million for failure to slow certain arrangements in qatar. dating back to the 2008 financial crisis. this was when barclays was scrambling to raise funds from overseas investors in order toa barclays paid undisclosed fees to officials and funds involved in its rescue. and that its conduct in the capital raising was reckless and that it lacked integrity. barclays saying it does not
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accept the regulator's findings but withdrew its appeal of that fine citing the time that of course has elapsed since those events. what are we talking about here? 12? that can't be. has it really been that long. i'm thinking that we're talking about something that's been 16 years? 16 years. that's a long time. >> in other news in europe, italian bank is offering to buy a rival banco bpm for $10.5 million. it would merge two of italy's largest lenders. the purchase would be an all stock deal. you can see the stock there. unicredit off 4%. >> apple ceo tim cook is visiting china. the company's second largest market after the u.s. he
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attended the suppliers conference. expected today. apple makes the majority of its iphones through foxcomm. any trade disruptions would be a source of concern for the company. this is at least the third visit to china for tim cook this year. pretty interesting piece. on the cover of the wall street journal about how carefully tim cook has developed and cultivated a personal relationship with the president- elect. coming up, mike allen from axios will join us to talk about the aforementioned president-elect trump's treasury pick. and the other weekend news from the transition team. get the best squawk box in our daily podcast. follow and listen any time. we'll be right back.
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president-elect trump announcing long awaited choice for treasury secretary. scott bessent. joining us now, mike allen. axios cofounder. do you think this was the best choice in terms of trying to keep wall street happy? but also putting someone in that might be a true believer in some of the not classically conservative or premarket initiatives that we're talking about. >> that's a smart way to put it. transition has been going for the union of id logically aligned with trump and experience credibility in the field. my conversations with wall street this weekend indicate that this was a pick that they are happy with. i can tell you from the trump
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side they intended this as a calming message to the markets. a lot of people see this as a disruptive cabinet. as you and your viewers well know, the president-elect cares a lot about markets. so this was meant to be a soothing signal. two huge jobs for scott bessent like one, he's partly responsible for delivering on this golden age that the president-elect has talked about including u.s. energy, independence, growth and second there's a less discussed but vital part of this job and that is managing american relations with the world. a big challenge for scott bessent that wall street's going to be watching for is how can he reassure western allies that they can count on the u.s. militarily and economically in an america first
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administration. that's a big vital job. >> the saga with -- i don't know what you call it. the matt gaetz saga. how will that influence the other controversial nominees? does it make it any easier? i don't -- should we go through each one. you can handicap. with hegseth, for example, there are senators that have said i've looked at the entire situation from 2017 and i believe pete hegseth and i think he deserves a serious look with that in the rearview mirror or i also heard that the trump team was very surprised that they didn't know anything about that. miffed to some extent. how is that nomination look? >> yeah, so in order of
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confidence by the trump transition team they feel very good about getting rfk jr. confirmed at hhs. they even think he might get a democratic vote or two. second, they feel good about pete hegseth. you're right that a lot of this was not known. what's worrisome is new information. i think that's what you saw a bit with congressman gaetz. so that's what they want to guard against with him. you saw pete hegseth up on the hill having meetings. tulsi gabbard for director of national intelligence. she needs to make sure her nomination can get out of the intelligence committee before it goes to the senate. so the trump people were happy to have matt gaetz out there as
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perhaps the slowest elk as the herd ran. but now they have these other picks to focus on. >> so how about some of the others? what are the chances there's no more matt gaetz. nobody else gets pulled. >> joe, you've watched this for years. you know there can be all kinds of surprises. usually driven by new information. one thing i will say about a nominee that will be of interest to your viewers is the ostensible loser of the knife fight howard lutnick. he got a hell of a consolation prize. he's running commerce. here's something important. that's going to be a very powerful job. president-elect trump said in the announcement of the commerce secretary that that
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position will lead the tariff and trade agenda with other responsibilities for the u.s. trade representative who has yet to be named. that is a very expansive muscular definition of the office. i think when we talked last week there was a sense from the trump team that the consolation prize for these two finalists might be director of the national economic council. this is a much bigger job. >> hey, mike, just from the dynamic then. we talked about this also last week. this idea of a good cop, bad cop. that bessent is a good cop for the markets and maybe howard lutnick plays bad cop on tariffs to the world. does that work in practice? the other component is bessent is going to spend a lot of time traveling the world, meeting with other world leaders at g20 meetings and the like. he's going to have to be supportive of whatever lutnick is doing on the other end.
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lutnick is going to have to be supportive of whatever bessent's doing. >> no, this is a very complicated economic team and i mentioned the u.s. trade representative. usdr still to come. chairman of the council of economic advisors still to come. director of the national economic council still to come. those are big jobs still out there. some of the pickest jobs that are left. the core cabinet is filled. i'm told for the other positions like this resolution of treasury which came friday night at the beginning of a 65 minute fuse lad of i think nine picks in just over an hour, that it's reshuffled the deck a little bit. that's what those conversations are going to be about in the next day. very focused on that economic team and how andrew as you point out those pieces will fit together. >> although if you look -- >> my question is given that you've been following washington for so long this
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just sounds like one big ufc fight taking place here potentially inside the administration before they start. >> 100%. this is set like you have rivalries from the beginning. it's not like there's been a sudden reset between the bessent camp and the lutnick camps. there's definitely a bad taste in it peoples mouths about how that game was played. how hard howard lutnick chairman -- >> i think we lost the connection with mike. obviously internet connection probably having some issues there. but as he was talking about this, there are these different camps that are set up in the administration. the new york times has a story about this about there being three distinct factions already within that incoming administration. probably not new. every administration has in fighting. this has maybe just been more
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public than what we've seen in the past. that was mike allen from axios. >> thank you. when we come back, a lot more on the broadcast. a dream team for tennis fans. andy murray and novak djokovic are going to be joining forces. details next. much more on psintrede- elect trump's economic proposals. we're coming right back here on squawk box right here on cnbc on a monday morning. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.
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of '87. they met 36 times as professionals. djokovic won 25 of those matches. murray beat him i think wimbledon and the u.s. open in 2013. but not a lot of sports where your biggest competitor, one of your biggest pelt tores you say you're so good and so great and i love you so much i want you to be my coach. think about that. >> beautiful story. >> yeah. >> reading what murray wrote about him too. just how he knew he was better that he brought this great thing out of him first time meeting him. it's amazing to see these two do it. i didn't realize they were only a week apart. >> when murray won wimbledon. where was joker that year? maybe he got beat by someone else in the earlier rounds. i'm just wondering. he did get past him there. murray won. >> i think -- didn't he -- if you go back i think in the open
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2013 i thought he actually beat him in the -- did he not beat him at the finals? >> i don't know. i don't know. that's a good question. he was the pride of obviously. >> they did play in finals. 11 out of 8 in finals they played. >> 8 out of 11? >> 11-8 in finals. >> oh, 11-8. amazing. >> it is a common carry on. what a complete beast djokovic is. he's still probably, be hard to say he's even on the other side of his skills. >> they went to training camp together. i didn't realize that. >> one's a coaching. one's still playing. djokovic is going to win more
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grand slams. i mean more grand slam events. got to distinguish that. grand slam is something very specific. it's one of the events that go into winning a total grand slam. >> when we come back, holiday travel season kicks into high gear. we'll talk gas prices after this break. right now as we head to that break though, let's take a look at the biggest premarket gainers in the nasdaq 100 today. super micro computers up by 6%. squawk box will be right back. '. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.
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(♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com good morning. futures another 300 points. big day on friday too. couple of big days for the dow.
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looked like it might be petering out a little bit. look at bitcoin. hasn't been able to get through 100,000 yet but close. andrew has your update. won in the 2012 open. >> then again in wimbledon 13. >> australian open too. >> djokovic beat him. andy murray won one more grand slam event i think 2016 in wimbledon and sam query had beat djokovic in a huge upset at one point in 2016 and then i guess murray beat somebody else though in the final. milos, i think. raonic. i didn't realize he won three. two wimbledons and one u.s. open. >> 2013 australian open murray had to get through roger federer to get to the finals.
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>> and then lost. >> and he was exhausted. it was a five set win. he had to play federer right before he played him. >> we got that all squared away. so two of the three are gone and who knows how long -- maybe it'll be tom brady. maybe he'll be playing when he's 45. i mean he's unbelievable. tennis is different than of course those hits. getting hit. i could get hit once and be resigned. >> gasoline prices are expected to be at multiyear lows this thanksgiving. you have 30 states right now averaging prices below $3 a gallon. gasbuddy stays 72% of americans are planning to take a road trip over the holiday. that's up sharply from a year ago. joining us to talk about it is gasbuddy head of petroleum analysis. let's talk gas prices. we are looking at some pretty low prices relative to what we've seep in recent years.
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>> yeah, that's right. the national average has really been persistent in trying to get below this $3 a gal lob mark. it could happen just ahead of thanksgiving. we're a couple of cents away from there this morning. as you mentioned we had two more states join the sub $3 club overnight. now we have 32 states are gas prices are below $3 a gallon. with millions preparing to hit the road, it couldn't be better news. by the way, 72% of americans telling us they'll be traveling over thanksgiving. that even beats out 2019. consumer sentiment really does seem to be rather optimistic. >> 72%, i think that's a 75% increase over is it just last year? >> yeah, that's right. last year inflation was zapping the sentiment of consumers to hit the road. gas prices were modestly higher. about 22 cents lower than last year. it's not like gas prices are hugely lower this year.
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but certainly more notable that 32 states are below that psychologically critical $3 level. >> when you say hitting the road, how far of a trip is that to qualify as actually traveling for thanksgiving? >> two-thirds of americans are going to be driving in around between one and three hours. that was about 30% of respondents. another 30% that were going to be driving between three and six hours. three to six hours, that's probably crossing a state boundary. maybe two. so some of those travels are pretty significant. keep in mind too, tsa expecting record-setting air travel numbers as well. americans taking just about any way to get to grandma's house this year. >> scott, patrick, how closely does gas prices track with what you see in terms of activity? is there a tipping point? is $3 a tipping point? what shuts down travel? >> well, you know, especially when it comes to a holidayen is, i think some of those
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record-setting prices. the $4 and 5 a gallon prices we saw were shutting down travel. it's not just gas prices. a lot of it is inflationary as well. when consumers are taking longer road trips they're very much in tune with the cost of things like eating out. and things like hotel stays. it's not just the price of gasoline. i think that's why the numbers in the last couple of years have really fallen behind. gasoline hasn't been too much higher the past few years. again, americans really felt like they were getting taken to the cleaners with run away inflation. >> what does this match up to? you said this is more than we saw in 2019 beforehand. is this close relative to what we've seen? have we come out the other side or is this unlike anything we've seen before? >> it is close to 2019. prior to the pandemic in 2019 about two-thirds of americans were going to be hitting the road for thanksgiving or did. so we are a little bit above that. keep in mind though we're still
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navigating the this post covid world where a lot of americans have limited their amount of travel at least when it comes to holidays. last year kind of signaling as well that worry. keep in mind too that over thanksgiving the last couple of years we've had resurgence of illnesses that have kept a few americans home. this year there's been flu, there's been walking pneumonia. i guess that's not holding anyone back especially with the allure of very low gas prices. >> bite your tongue too. how much of this is geographic? where you see the highest prices? i'd guess you see some place like california does that slow travel down or are they used to those higher prices? >> yeah, to your point it's all what you're used to. californians are very much adjusted to paying prices over $4 a gallon. even in california prices are significantly lower than last year whereas you get to the interior country, there's actually over 20 cities in the interior that are below $2.50 a gallon. so it's all par for the course.
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californians feel like their prices are lower, of course they're so much higher than areas like oklahoma, texas, mississippi where prices are below $3 a gallon. almost everyone feels like they're paying far less than they have since the pandemic. it is just before 7:00 a.m. right here on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin along with jim oe kernen and becky qu. a bunch of stories to tell you about. president-elect trump announcing key cabinet members for treasure scott bessent beating out kevin warsh who was seen as a front runner for the job, possibly in line for other white house missions beating out like marc rowan who runs apoll. in corporate news the biden administration planning to reduce intel's preliminary $8.5
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billion federal chip grant to less than $8 billion, taking into account a $3 billion contract that intel had been offered to make chips for the pentagon. and shoppers now expected to spend an average, ready for this, $650, between black friday and cyber monday up 50% from last year. that's according to a new survey that came out today from deloitte. the entire holiday shopping season consumers are projected to spend just under $1200. that's up 8% from 2023. so i'm actually surprised about that, joe. do you think that you spend, given that -- do you think you spend half the amount of money for the holidays just during that first thanksgiving day week? i'm always late with the presents. that's why i'm thinking later in december. >> i already have your present. >> um -- >> you do. >> >> wow. >> can i get back -- >> showing us up. >> andrew, can i get back to you how i do it?
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>> you don't do it, period. >> penelope's realm. >> i'm glad to have a role. i am. i don't mind. the role itself. >> you wrap? >> no. i cover -- make sure things -- >> no. >> exactly. but the other thing is too hard. the actual finding things that -- don't you think you should let people decide what they really want? do you still try? do you still try? >> are you a gift certificate guy? >> no. >> versus -- >> there's a new vacuum cleaner i have my eye on for penelope. >> good luck. >> exercise, peloton, no. no, no, no. i wish i could pick the jewelry out. i'm telling you, i wish i could. i wish i could. i wish i could, but i can't. >> do you still try? >> you let the other person choose the gift? >> yes. >> you just do cash?
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>> no. you can't do that you got to -- it's a very difficult ritual. like a mating -- like a courtship. let's go to the mall. what is it? let's go together. let's find. get exactly what you want. >> but there's no surprise to it. no surprise. >> all the surprises i've had in the past have been bad surprises. for about -- can you do it? you really can get something for -- that your wife would not want to take back? >> i try to find out what she wants through other channels and go and try to buy it and hope she doesn't return it. >> has that ever happened? >> the returning actually no. >> she didn't return -- she didn't return. >> i'm fickle. i return a lot of things. i'm a terrible gift getter actually. >> yeah. >> wow. >> i don't -- >> i got you something you're not going to return.
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>> really? >> i'm very excited. >> i don't -- there's nothing -- absolutely nothing i don't have, which is a good way to be, isn't it? >> >> that's what i got you. >> yeah. >> all right. >> that's perfect. >> you don't have to wrap it. say it's wrapped. here it is. beautifully wrapped . >> i just heard wrap. they said wrap. someone suggested what i can get for you, andrew, thinking about doing it. >> what's that. >> i hear matt gaetz is sending personal messages on cameo. >> that i would love. that i would love. >> that's what evan suggested. >> can't return that either. >> so i'm going to send you that. it's s.o.r. checking the futures up 300 points. up a lot on friday. and nasdaq and nvidia helped. let's get to dom chu with a look at the premarket movers. dom doesn't seem like someone
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who has any idea what to get the mrs. >> no, i do. >> you do? >> unlike the stats andrew reeled off, given all the early shopping events and prime days and everything else, more than half of my shopping is already done and was done even prior to this week. so we'll see what happens on that. anyway, joe, becky, an draw, kick things off with bitcoin prices of all things. it's right near the 98,000 mark, up 1.5%. we're trying to creep up towards the 100,000 level. the crypto sector level rallying within bitcoin coming within the 300 mark. the incoming trump administration is viewed as crypto friendly in a tailwind for the entire industry. keep an eye on bitcoin prices and stocks a go with them. let's turn to a couple analyst notes getting attention. robinhood in the crypto sphere as well the shares up nearly 3.5% after morgan stanley upgraded to an overweight and
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lifted their target price to 55 bucks from 24. the analysts say revenue growth looks stronger after the election with more crypto support and possible m&a opportunities opening up. robinhood shares up 3.5%. shares of target beleaguered target up around a percent or so. oppenheimer naming that stock a top pick saying shares appear to be at or near a bottom with a compelling risk-reward scenario developing and pointed to negative investor sentiment, achievable fourth quarter guidance and potential support for an attractive dividend yield. target shares which are down 11% year-to-date may be find something bottom. for that and other key analyst calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro. subscribers get access to more details and analysis hints those big calls. joe, i send things back over to you as i try to finish what's left of my holiday shopping list. >> dom, thank you. if i'm on there, take me off. i don't want anything. maybe a new golf swing.
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>> i got you a sleeve of pro v 1 with a cnbc pro logo. >> that will last like nine holes probably. >> see ya. >> all right. >> how about a gift from the next story. bath and body works. i feel like i could get you some soaps. that you might like. >> that's a good idea. >> saying you stink. >> i know. >> it's to wash your mouth out with the soap. >> oh, wash my mouth out. >> yeah, during the break. you -- was your mic on or the audio? my mic was on. oh. shoot. >> we should just say, beyond people buying lots of soap to wash people's mouth out with, they are rising in double-digits after quarterly results. a lot of people need to get their mouth washed out with soap and buying a lot of it. earnings up 49 cents a share, 2 cents better than estimates. $1.61 billion beating expectations of $1.58 billion.
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for the fourth quarter bath & body works expecting earnings in the range of 1.94 a share. that's 2.07 a share and the street looking for earnings of 1.97. the stock up about 11% on the back of that news. who knew people were spending billions of dollars on soaps from bath & body works. >> we're not spending any on soap. >> ivory. do you use some fancy soap? you must. you're a metro whatever they are. you don't use just ivory or whatever? >> hand soap. >> just in the shower. >> oh. >> i like dove. >> i use dove. dove the same. >> oh, man. realized some weirdo who has. asking me on x forever what i use just answered it. >> the same guy with the feet. >> i don't know if it's the same guy with the feet. >> do you use soap on your feet. >> i love lava with pummist.
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you remember that? >> take your skin off? >> yeah. >> basically. right. >> if you're going to do it once a month you need a good scrubbing. >> when we come back we have much more on president-elect trump's pick for treasury secretary and what he brings to the table for investors. up next, though, we're going to talk technicals and the move in bitcoin with katie stockton of fairlead strategies. "squawk box" will be right back.
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we have covered the surge in bitcoin since the election as it has soared up close to $100,000 of coins. let us take a look at the market. technicals katie stockton fairlead strategies. because it hasn't gone over thursday, friday, or the weekend it stalled. bitcoin so volatile it has not exceeded 100 but it ran up significantly to above 99,000 at one point. how can you use technicals once it gets above anywhere it's ever been before? >> that's a good question. we don't have a way of gauging upside potential from here. all of the price objectives that we can derive from the breakouts we've seen have been exceeded. the most recent one being about 98,000 based on a measured move projection, so we are in
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unchartered territory in terms of where there is resistance, which, of course, there is none. we can, of course, just refer back to the previous trading and get sort of a sense of how bitcoin tends to trade and use that as sort of a playbook going forward. what we've noticed for bitcoin is it does tend to stair step to the downside and upside, meaning sees sharp run-ups and consolidates, usually for months, not just weeks, so we do feel that after such a strong run up, that consolidation is likely. the $100,000 market is psych lodgically significant benchmark there. really insignificant except for a round number. >> and then the -- whenever i ask you what the downside support is with bitcoin it's always so much bigger than any other market we follow, so if it holds 40,000. >> right. >> we're still in an up trend or
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something? i'm kidding. what do you think -- where do you see the first support. >> the first support around 74,000 simply based on -- >> 74. >> i know. you don't need to be willing to let it ride down to that level, but i think actually people should be. it's not to say it looks like it's going back there, but they need to be willing to give bitcoin and the crypto currencies in general more room because of the volatility there and also because i think of the long-term potential. i think investors should have small positions in their portfolio, something that they almost forget about, don't look at that often, except when they want to, and just watch the sort of long-term advance unfold. >> the other important -- and we start with bitcoin. i don't know if i would have started with it. obviously, it's been in the news a lot. i think we're more interested and most people interested in the s&p or nasdaq. i don't know why since they're at all-time highs i don't know why your work is any better on
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those because those have never been this high either. there's no -- you don't have a map for what's going to happen there either, do you? >> you know, the price subjectives that we could have gotten for the s&p are basically in line, so it does put us in a position where we're more sensitive to any loss of momentum. right now momentum is neutral short term and intermediate and long-term very much positive, so we are still, you know, staying the course with existing long ideas that have maintained that momentum, but where we're seeing sell signals -- and there are those out there for sure with the breadth having faltered to some degree -- we're being respectful of the sell signals. >> same with the nasdaq. you could have talked about the s&p or nasdaq. >> either or. the nasdaq has lost strength and with that the semiconductor sector especially has lost relative performance. massive under performance, you know. nvidia stalled. looking outside of nvidia that under performance is really -- has been magnified recently and
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we feel like that's a bit of a challenge for the market because typically when we see upside leadership from semis that's a strong take and vice versa. >> the -- i'm noting can you to talk about fundamentals. we'll just talk about another market because the market -- the equity s&p and nasdaq seem to stall when the 10-year starts, the yield starts moving up because there are concerns some of the things in the president-elect's, you know, in his playbook could be inflationary and -- or for whatever. jay powell says maybe we won't cut again. there are reasons to watch the 10-year. what is the 10-year? >> we feel like there's a major low-end place as of september based on our indicator. >> in yield? >> around that 3.6 level for the 10-year and that's a new development on the chart based on the monthly data. we have the indicators turning up from oversold territory, so we expect a retracement here in
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the near term to the downside, but a higher low versus the 3.6 now as the start of another advance. we are looking for them to work higher. >> doesn't sound that scary. >> 30-year because mortgages are tied to that and anybody waiting for rates to come back down, oh, what now? >> what i fear we do. >> they're all correlated is that the retracement is pretty short-term so we're looking for it near term both in the dollar and in yields and we're talking about weeks really not months. i think that might take -- or not be enough to manifest itself in intothat market. >> gold maintaining that cyclical uptrend. we think it's an off period for gold. it needs to digest its gains alongside other precious metals. copper seems to be breaking some support as another aside in metals complex. >> going the wrong way, if the inflation trade is -- is, you
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know, back in vogue. is it? >> that's right. >> how about the russell? >> the russell really outperformed last week up 4.5% versus 1.7 for the s&p. >> really? >> so it's kind of intriguing, right. if we see both of those benchmarks exceed their post-election highs, which are really not that far from current levels, we think we could get maybe one more push higher before we get into consolidation phase. that's what we're watching very near term. we're not highly convinced that we're going to get sustained out performance from small caps. that would require really strong tape typically. we think it's going to be more of a balanced relative performance between small and large. >> really? the consensus is that the russell is going to outperform. you don't see it yet? >> i think people will be intrigued by the names that comprise the russ ell if it is strong tape. we don't think that's a compelling environment to buy small caps because they are
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higher beta and hold more risk and with that sometimes more upside potential. in a range maybe not as much. >> okay. so i was right? i said support. it's at 100,000. support 74,000 -- >> 74,000. >> you have to really have a calm demeanor to play in that market. >> i think it's just a key -- >> did you buy a put. >> check it once a month. >> i bet the put premium is so high on bitcoin. >> i haven't looked but it is a big spread to support and that's the risk, of course. especially with -- when you don't have a way to gauge upside. >> exactly. katie, thank you. >> of course. >> katie stockton. >> macy's is delaying its third quarter report over an accounting issue. it says that during the preparation of its financial statements, it discovered that an gee with a responsibility for small package delivery made erroneous accounting entries to hide between $132 million and $154 million in delivery
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expenses. that worker is no longer employed by the company, as you might expect. it says there is no indication that the erroneous accounting had any impact on the company's cash management or vendor payments but delaying its earnings release and conference call to allow for completion of an independent investigation. the stock off by 3.4%. in the meantime the company did offer some preliminary numbers. it says that third quarter net sales dropped by 2.4%, but comp store sales in november are trending ahead of third quarter levels. again, lot to digest there. looks like the market still reacting. stock is off by about 3.3%. andrew? >> it's interesting to see the trending up on one end. i'm thinking of target which was an outlier and where macy's might fit in the retail world. we're going to have to find out more in the coming days. when we come back a lot more on squawk. president-elect trump naming his pick for treasury secretary.
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president-elect trump has picked investor scott bessent to be his treasury secretary. an evercore isi's note they write this pick should please markets given bessent's in depth understanding of financial markets and the economy in particular the bond market, the trump administration will need to keep on its side if it is to advance its agenda successfully. joining us is evercore isi public policy chief strategist sara beyanki. this is a pick that took longer than many other cabinet positions. seemed there was infighting that broke out in the public eye. how do you think wall street is feeling about this? this something that kind of called some nerves? >> i think that's right. you're right to say there was a lot of swirl around this and potentially some infighting and then i also think there was this tension. there always is this tension in trump world between tariffs and some of the immigration agenda that people express economic
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concerns about, and a market-friendly treasury secretary of the likes that we've seen for the last few rounds from different administrations. so i think the market is relieved to see this pick, you know, we'll have to see. >> you see it in lower treasury rates. >> absolutely. >> we're watching it across the board, the 10-year at 4.36 after elevating close to 4.50 last week. the idea from the markets is not that tariffs not going to be an issue, but maybe they're manageable and more of a negotiation tool. maybe there is a deal that can be done with some of our partners internationally? >> i think that's right. that certainly is his approach. i'm waiting to see how the overall economic team shakes out because if you remember last time, we had secretary ma new shun in trump 1.0 and similar kind of ideas and -- from him, but we also saw lighthizer at ustr and ariffs up from 3% to
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10%. i think we're going to have to watch that mix. we understand president trump likes to have all those different viewpoints arguing in front, so i think the markets should be optimistic about this pick, but they also should wait and see how the dynamics play out. >> what would be dynamics that would be concerning for wall street? >> well, i'm still very much watching to see if lighthizer, robert lighthizer, lands in this administration in any capacity, whether white house counsel, i understand he doesn't want go back to ustr but trade is technical, and he knows his way around not only every statute that ever was in trade, but around trump world. >> that concerns you if lighthizer is in the administration? >> i think it will point to a more aggressive coherent and very active tariff platform and ones that the treasury secretary will have to make his case against. i think it will put a more kind of even balance in the --
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>> i don't think there's any way we're going through four years of a trump administration and not see tariffs ratcheted up in some areas. what would be areas the market would maybe take more willingly? what would be things that would really make the market think hold on, this can't happen? >> right. i think when you're talking about using tariffs as a negotiation or something around, you know, digital taxes in europe or other things like that, fine. okay. tariffs around chinese electric vehicles, we don't have a lot of those coming in directly to the united states. fine. but anything really aggressive on mexico i think is something particularly the auto sector is going to have to watch for. >> even when chinese imports are going into mexico and then coming here because of our trade policy with mexico at this point? >> they're certainly fine to deal with, with that i said issue. that's not going to concern the market. anything like a 10% across-the-board tariff again, i'm not saying -- >> what about 60% on chinese? anything manufactured in china? 60% if that gets ratcheted down to 30% would that concern you?
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>> i think anything coming down from 60 is going to feel a lot better but 30 across the board would have impacts. last time the trump administration was more strategic about what they hit on tariffs, so i would like to see a little bit more balance in alignment. you're right. the global economy can handle tariffs. there's areas. biden got at that a different way with export controls and investments and actually some pretty targeted action on chinese evs coming through mexico. these are -- i think everybody kind of maybe agrees on the goal, but tariffs if you go too broad you can cause inflation >> the tax picture, a lot of promises made in the campaign. 15% on the corporate level. lots of exceptions and exclugsz. what do you actually expect to see and what would be a point, again, where you would say hold on maybe this doesn't look as friendly to the markets as we thought? >> this is where we see the
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tension between some of the things bessent has said about trying to get our deficits down to 3% of gdp and tax cut that even if you just extend the trump tax cut it's in the 4 or $5 trillion range over ten years. that's before all the campaign promises and we were getting almost one a week at the end. some of them quite costly. i think they are going to have to ratchet. either way, i expect next year them to pass a deficit increasing tax cut. i think the market will be happier if they do start to look for some pay force, some offsets, some way of showing the trajectory. if it's just gimmicks by nipping and tucking and cutting the length of the tax cuts, i don't think that should be as much comfort. >> thank you. sara bianchi. we're going to talk about trump's economic plans and d.o.g.e. with former cea chairman jason furman and former cbo director douglas holtz-eakin at 8:30 eastern time. coming up, big weekend at
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[ inaudible ] "wicked" bringing in an estimated $114 million in the united states and canada according to comp score the biggest opening for a film base on a broadway musical. "gladiator ii" with $55 million and wrigley scott's sequel to his original blockbuster which came out back in 2000 and won best picture of two movies helping get hollywood to its best weekend since "deal poole" and "wolverine" in july. >> thank you. when we come back, international travel has been unusually strong for this time of year. phil lebeau takes a look why the holiday getaway is now in europe as we head into the final weeks of 2024. plus, a big week for retail as people kick off the holiday shopping season. what it could mean for real tailors. "squawk box" will be right back. .
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"squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. . "squawk box" will be right back. phil lebeau, flz,
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♪ ♪ at 9:00 the doors would lock up ♪ ♪ save me from forgetful slip-ups ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪ ♪ ♪ i could make a custom pin ♪ ♪ watch the dog walker get in ♪ ♪ so ziggy won't complain ♪ ♪ ♪ when my in-law comes a-knockin' ♪ ♪ i can open, maybe lock it ♪ ♪ if my home just had a brain ♪ a news alert on warren buffet's berkshire hathaway. in recent years buffet has written a letter to shareholders, this happened last year and a letter this year,
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talk about some of his charitable giving. today he's going to be converting 1600 a shares into $2.4 million b shares in order to give those to four family foundations, a total of $1.14 billion if you add it up on the math today. he says the gifts he's making reduce his holdings in berkshire class a shares to 206, to 363 shares, about $147 billion. 147, 400, 000 and points out that stake he holds of $147 billion plus dollars is down 56.6% from when he first started giving class a shares away back in 2006 when he made the pledge. he goes on to really lay out what he thinks of his kids in these letters and his three children, suze, howie and peter, will be giving away -- they'll be responsible for all of the shares at his death.
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he says the children have now more than justified their hopes he and his wife, his wife suzy buffet's their hope upon death they have responsibility for distributing those healedings that account for 99.5% of his stake. in this letter he says that he has three foeshl successor trustees who have been designated in case his children now ages 71, 69 and 66, are not able to distribute the assets themselves. this is a little different than that 2006 pledge. that was for a lifetime pledge where a big chunk of it would be going to the gates foundation, but his trustees going through with this. they have to vote to unanimously for anything that will be done with the shares, which is kind of unusual. not many families do that he says that they're comfortable financially. they have not be preoccupied with wealth.
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their mother from whom they learned these values would be proud of them as am i. closing words for that letter. >> u.s. airports going to be jammed this week with travelers for thanksgiving. more americans are booking flights to europe during the holiday season, which is giving the air carriers a boost. phil lebeau joins us with more. hey, phil. >> joe, this is a trend that really started a couple years ago coming out of the pandemic, we saw as airlines added flight, people had greater demand for taking a trip during november or december across the atlantic. look how many seats we will see this year. it's fractionally down a little bit compared to last year, but it's an improvement compared to where we were in 2018. 6.53 million seats. that's not u.s. carriers. that's all airlines. transatlantic seats for november and december and united among the u.s. carriers is really leading the way. its capacity this november compared to november last year
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up 2.5%. in december, it's going to be up 7.3%. take look at shares of united close to an all-time high, they are expecting their busiest holiday season ever. this is good news. not only for the bottom line because airfares on transatlantic routes are going to be on greater than domestic routes, but you see this across the industry. we should point out among the u.s. carrier, delta's essentially flat with where they were last year down 1.8%. you have seen a pullback in capacity from american. they had too much capacity in the system for some time and we know about the issues at jetblue as they're redoing their route network they had issues with turbo fan engines limiting the number of aircraft that they have at their use. so as you finally take a look at the airline index, this is interesting. while united has been off to the races, delta has had a nice move, we haven't seen this across the board and that's why the airline index despite passenger levels being close to record levels this year, guys,
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it's up compared to where it was at the beginning of the year and over last three months. nowhere close to the kind of levels that we have seen with both united and delta and the moves in the last couple months. >> yeah. the far right side of that chart is kind of difficult to understand, phil. >> yeah. >> what do you think plays into that top three things, do you think? >> well, you've got a few things here. airline index is not just delta and united and we've seen a number of issues with some of the other airlines. obviously, american and jetblue. >> overcapacity. >> yeah. overcapacity coming out of the system. we know what's going on with spirit, frontier is adjusting itself. all of that factors into it. >> okay. all right. phil, are you going to like o'hare or something tomorrow? what are you doing? where are we going to -- >> i don't know. put in a request. maybe you'll see me there.
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>> i don't -- >> joe says i should go there. >> i think you're there every thanksgiving. >> usually. usually i'm there. >> i can't remember the last -- >> they got one of the annie stores or something nearby. maybe a cinnabon. you don't mind -- >> the other side of security they do. >> that's right. that's right. okay. >> folks, when we come back a lot more on "squawk." maybe phil lebeau from o'hare. between now and then u.s. intelligence warning defense firms of a possible russian sabotage threat. we're going to discuss that next. later the owner of a soccer club orlando pride and orlando city, and the nfl's minnesota vikings, mark wilf ing joinus. lot more coming up on "squawk" on this monday morning when we come back.
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welcome back to "squawk box." the u.s. agencies are warning now of increased russian sabotage targeting american defense firms urging heightened cyber security as tensions escalate over ukraine. joining us to discuss this and more, ceo and former white house chief information officer, good ing to you. how concerned should we be about this and to the extent that there's something to do about it, what is that? >> yeah, thanks, andrew. great to be with you. we should be very concerned because what we're learning from these reports is that the operatives are getting creative. instead of doing the things we're used to them doing, they're actually leveraging cyber criminal syndicates of physical world criminal syndicates and they're leveraging insiders. it really makes it hard to protect against something like this when they're using sort of an all-of-the-above multiple choice playbook. >> speak to this idea of using
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insiders and the physicality of it all. historically it was something we thought about hacking, we thought it was electronic. >> right. and now they know that a lot of companies have done really great work here with beefing up their staffs, beefing up their security, so they're looking for opportunities to recruit insiders. there is something that companies can do about this. they can be looking at failed log-in attempts, looking at accounts that are trying to log in to different parts of systems that they shouldn't be accessing. they're not working on those projects, for example. they could be using ai for anomaly detection, doing a behavioral-based analytics of what is a typical profile of our employee, of our third-party vendor contractors, because the supply chain is definitely a weak link in the security chain, and then they can also be looking at sort of unusual behaviors. those can be captured if you have a really robust insider
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threat program. >> so you have this idea of insiders trying to take this stuff, how are they finding the insiders to effectively pay off to do this? >> well, it's interesting. a lot of the recruiting happens on linkedin. this is a great place for all of us to stay connected and share information and be connected to our colleagues in the industry and learn from them, but it's also a place where cyber criminals and nation state operatives can recruit. some individuals who are doing this, a lot of times don't know who they're working for. they may not even realize that they're being duped into doing some of the insider threats. you have knowing insiders who -- >> hold on. go back. how would you not know? if you're being asked to effectively, you know, go into a file and get it and send it to somebody how would you not know that's what you're doing? >> they may not know they're doing that for nation states or
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cyber criminal syndicates. they may think they're providing information to be featured in a research paper. i mean there are all different types of techniques and tactics being used. this is why an insider threat education awareness program is helpful. for example, reminding employees on a regular basis that company proprietary information is exactly just that. and even if you think a researcher or somebody at a conference is reaching out to you to ask for information, that there should be internal protocols where that has to be approved before that information can be provided. >> ter reresa, i have heard of companies when it comes to the technology units, certain security units inside companies, where they tell their employees you cannot actually identify yourself on linkedin. do you think that's a good policy? >> i think it could be an incredibly helpful policy. but the recruiting also happens at conferences where people trade business cards and trade
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information, and, you know, i remember, for example, our protocol when i worked at the white house was, first of all we didn't go to conferences, but second of all, if we were out traveling an somebody asked us where we worked, we were told to say i'm a -- in program management in the treasury department. that way you wouldn't attract undue attention to you in the role you were playing, while you were travel, why you were out and about. there's, again, i think things that organizations need to be thinking about and understanding the typical way that you think they're going to break into your company, yes, they're still going to try to do that digitally, but they're going to find different ways to reach out to your employees linkedin is only one of multiple ways. they can reach out on gaming platforms, meet them at conferences, they can sit in employees' favorite coffee shops for employees that may congregate in a coffee place near the work place. all ways to do this. having employees be more aware
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of their surroundings, who they're interacting with and doing, you know, kind of interesting scenario-based, role-based training and education awareness on a regular basis can be incredibly helpful. >> teresa peyton, thank you. it is fascinating and something we all need to be watching a lot more it sounds like. thank you. >> joe, are you an insider? >> i don't think so. i like to think so. but i -- i think it's in my mind maybe. you? >> i mean, i am an insider. the question is whether we've been, you know, breached by somebody that we don't know that they're working for a foreign government. >> you guys tell everything, everybody everything you know on air so -- >> i don't need breaching. >> yeah. >> i don't need -- >> you don't have secrets. >> open book. coming up, the holiday shopping season, almost upon us. we will get an update and an outlook for retailers after the
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break. we're on bitcoin watch at 98,000, above and below. creeping closer to that $100,000 mark. more on that in just a bit. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪
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best buy, macy's, kohl's, dick's sporting goods all ready to report quarterly results tomorrow. macy's we just got a preview of and you can see the stock down by 3.3%. all of this as we approach the holiday season. we're going to talk more about that right now with forester researcher's retail analyst. let me talk just a little bit about what we've heard from macy's. they have miss this erroneous accounting entries that were found. as a result, they are going to be putting off their official results, but they did give us preliminary results that show net sales down by 2.4%. what do you think of what you heard there? >> well, certainly any type of an accounting irregularity is never good news for a public company, but in terms of overall how macy's has been trending, this is a company that has
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definitely been struggling. i think that last quarter, it was really just that they exceeded some of the low expectations that were there, which is why there was a little bit of a recovery overall, but for the most part their numbers are definitely challenged. this is a company that is challenged on one side by internet retailers like amazon and temu and shein and at the high end by consumers who don't necessarily want to purchase at some of these mass department stores either. >> the preliminary net sales down 2.4% to $4.74 billion. the street looking for $4.77 billion. they did say that comps in november were trending ahead of what they'd seen in the third quarter. what does that tell you? >> i am surprised -- well i guess it all depends on what the specific numbers are and what they are comparing versus that passed it. the truth is that november sales so far are likely to be soft,
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and it really, really is going to depend on if this thanksgiving week is going to turn things around. the consumer, for the most part, is going to be waiting for these big announcements that are going to happen thanksgiving week and really a significant part of holiday sales are going to be pushed into december this year because it's such a late thanksgiving. so i am -- i think we really, really need to see the specifics here to see what exactly is meant by trending ahead. it could just be all relative to a relatively low number. >> we heard good news from walmart. expectations from dick's too. the dick's sporting goods has been one highlight people have pointed to. where else do you see consumers shopping? >> certainly looks like some of the home sectors are recovering as well within the retail world, we continue to see the non-store retailers, so essentially that's really an amazon number where consumers are going to e-commerce which continues to
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outpace physical goods retail. walmart certainly as well as you'd pointed out. dick's is certainly one of the highlights in big box retail overall. but many of the mall merchants continue to struggle, particularly in the department store sector, and even a lot of the vertically integrated retailers that are mono brands. whether it is an h&m or the family of gap brands, i think that -- they're challenged as well. >> any good news outside of walmart or dick's though? >> well, overall the consumer is spending. i mean the consumer continues to -- >> yeah. >> -- increase how much they're spending. we expect retail to be in the 3% year over year growth range which is higher than inflation which means it's a better year than last year. where those numbers are going isn't necessarily always to publicly traded companies, and i think therein lies the
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challenges. there are a lot of small companies that we may not always have heard about because consumers discover them on tiktok or instagram. these are companies that players like shopify or big commerce are supporting through e-commerce platforms that aren't always household names. it just may not be in some of these large players that are at malls. >> thank you. >> thank you, becky. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories, the biden administration is planning to cut intel's $8.5 billion grant from the chips and science act to less than $8 billion. according to "the new york times." intel has seen its business struggle lately. cnbc has reached taught intel for comment on the matter.
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macy's says an employee made erroneous accounting entries to hide delivery expenses between 2021 and 2024. the company said there's no indication that the bad accounting entries had any impact on its catch management or vendor payments. you can see the stock is down by 3.3%. closing arguments set to get under way in google's ad tech trial. the government trying to prove google illegally dominated online advertising technology. this follows a 15-day trial back in september. take a look at the futures. dow up about 322 points. the nasdaq up 113 points. we have the s&p 500 up about 30 points. meantime, let's show you treasuries. on the one side equities have been screaming and just moving higher. the bond market a little more complicated. ten-year, 3.431.
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i want to get down to mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. pardon the pun, he is combing through what he's dubbed the mullet market this morning. good morning to you, mike. >> good morning, andrew. yes, that's right. the mullet, the hairstyle, not the fish. business in the front, party in the back. that's how this market feels. it's very split. the front straightahead view on the s&p 500 is very, very orderly. you had this little two-week side ways consolidation after you got a little stretched after the election. really has done nothing wrong. rotating within it, value overgrowth a little bit, cyclical sectors, banks doing well. a mild pullback and seems like we might challenge the highs from a couple of weeks ago. that comes as part of a very sturdy, longer term trend. however, recently you've seen this eruption of speculative, fast-moving money into other parts of the market. naturally crypto but everything outside the s&p 500. take a look at this
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relationship, the esf is a etf that has u.s. stocks not in the s&p 500, small caps, big caps and big companies that don't qualify for the s&p or more recent ipos. this is obviously against the quality etf has ramped in the last couple of weeks. the gains were coming from strong balance sheets, lots of big mega cap growth stocks, that kind of thing. this is now a change in character of this market. now, take a look, too, at robinhood and coinbase. this gas back to 2021 shortly after coinbase came public. that was that real excitement, spacs and unprofitable tech ipos, meme stocks and all the rest. that was in here. long, long, long convalescence period after that big crash. now rebuilding toward it because of options trading, leveraged etfs, obviously everything crypto adjacent. i'm not saying the market's gone fully crazy. we're not even back to early 2021 levels, but it is
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interesting to me that this is the kind of activity that's gotten kicked off. the average large cap index, andrew, is hanging in there, and doing what it really should do seasonally and based on longer term trends. >> mike, two questions. you look at robinhood/coinbase chart you're looking at there. the thick i'm unclear about, should we think about them in the same sentence always or do you think about them in two different sentences? robinhood's business does have a crypto component but for the majority of the business, it is not crypto. >> the business of the -- the majority of the business is noncrypto but the revenue is crypto and options. in terms of the idea of what's going to be a bigger part of the mix down the road, it's probably crypto. more importantly, it's crypto and a lot of the other retail
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trader oriented plays, they travel together. they're kind of feeding off that same source of energy. >> what do you think the bond market's saying? we've seen this remarkable ride on the equity market. clearly the bond market's getting a little nervous. >> well, it had been getting nervous in some respects. there was a little sense out of there of maybe kind of growth supporting policies on ton of already decent growth when inflation hasn't fully come back to 2%. on the other hand, you know, really never got out of bounds. you never got to 4.5% on the ten-year. today you're seeing treasuries rally and yields come in probably on the treasury secretary nominee, this idea it's a little more of careful attention to fiscal issues and not necessarily just a pure tariff maximalist point of view. that's my take on how the bond market is now moving back a little bit from the border of what was going to seem like it might be more of a threat if
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yields became unanchored. >> mike santoli, thank you, sir. >> we will definitely touch on those issues right now with our next guest. let's welcome chairman and ceo of strategus research partners. i'm fascinated by you. i'm always fascinated. you point out that in the last 15 years we've had a grand total of two months in recession. >> that's right. >> which gives us the idea that we have managed the business cycle and learned how to o that, which is -- we know that's impossible. >> agree. let's look why we've been able to do that. could be perennial nonstop qe and perennial nonstop deficit spending -- >> exactly. >> -- which gives us the sense we've done it, but that all seems to be setting up for a day
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of reckoning. >> i agree. i feel -- i'm very skeptical of social engineering. and i think qe is one of the greatest sources of social engineering or greatest examples of that i've ever seen. i think it misallocates capital. and it also makes it very difficult -- makes it very difficult for regular people. regular people get zero on their savings for 12 years where people with leveraged investments like private equity crush it. that's not fair. and i think it's also one of the reasons i feel very strongly about this, one of the reasons why donald trump was elected eight years ago because there's a general sense that these policies are not working for average people. so, you know, we've -- it looks like we managed the business cycle but we've been doing it with massive government deficits and government spending, which we can't afford. no one likes to see recessions, but if you believe in free markets, recessions are a necessary part of the business cycle, which resets things and
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allows for creative destruction and productivity. >> part of the problem is the deeper we get into this, the more people who make big bets on never having a recession. the louder they scream any time there's any risk of something like that and basically demand help from the fed ailing them out or somebody else along the way. >> amen. it's a problem with mettling. you can't get the toothpaste back in the tube. once you start mettling in the economy, is leads to more mettling. again, it's a very poor way of allocating resources. i don't believe in small groups of unelected people, particularly unelected people with ph.d.s making decisions for 330 million people. i'd much rather have the 330 million people make their own decisions about what's best -- >> a big part is the elected official doing what the people want, which is to make sure they keep giving them -- >> there are certain voices that speak more loudly.
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>> you don't want to go in this administration -- i don't know if you are, but what a horribl time to, frapz, have to face these things. so you point out, we've been in a late expansion phase of the economy for a longer time. capital is not being allocated, right? should the trump administration rip the band-aid off and go cold turkey on all this -- and what would that feel like? is that what doge is going to do? >> it's one of the most exciting things that's come out of washington in a long time. simpson bowles was interesting but it was a big government inside the beltway type of approach to this. this is people with real people that have -- >> this is the way to go. >> this is, to me, this isn't easy -- i don't want to say it's easy but a much more -- >> it seems like it would bring
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on austerity and the recession you're talking about. >> austerity for washington, d.c. but not for the rest of us, the taxpayers. the idea we're taxed too much or you're not paying enough in taxes it's crazy to me. government -- washington, d.c., is the only city that has basically had no re -- never has recessions. as a matter of fact, when recessions come, it tends to grow. >> more people are there lobbying for more money to come their way. >> this administration, i'm very excited for this administration. i think -- i've been talking to institutional investors the last -- >> it sounds like tough medicine. >> well, no. i think you can manage it. >> combined with deregulation -- >> precisely. can offset some of the -- some of the tougher medicine that you might have, but you don't have to raise taxes. i feel very strongly about that. you can have tough tariff
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policies and tough trade policies because we have the most important chip in the world, the u.s. consumer. getting to fair trade is a good thing. we're long past the idea we have to subsidize the rest of the world's middle classes at the expense of our classes. >> are you auditioning for the trump administration? i think that he watches and other watch. there was a treasury secretary sweepstakes. i don't know if >> one of our ct was on multiple times and look what happens. is that what this is? are you going to be in the trump administration? >> we'll find out. scott is a good friend of mine, a client for many years. i'm thrilled he got it. i think it's a great choice for president trump. >> you're running his money? >> no, no. we're a research firm and scott gets our research and we've talked a long time. >> i thought it would have been
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the reverse. >> no, no. >> he's getting advice from you? >> i wish he was managing my money? >> that's unbelievable. well, we have institutional clients all over the world. >> that gets a big attaboy for you, jt. good to -- and keep us updated. you have nothing to tell us now? >> i have nothing to tell you now. i'll let you know if i hear anything. >> thanks. >> thank you. coming up in just a moment, we have a lot more on president trump's pick, scott bessent. we'll talk tariffs and takeaways for the marks. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box." this is cnbc.
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now is welcome back to "squawk box." president-elect trump tapping scott bessent for treasury secretary. joining us with his reaction, michael, who served as assistant treasury secretary in the first trump administration. now chief economist with the america first policy institute and finance professor at the university of maryland's smith
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school of business. good morning to you. curious, before we get into it, what your reaction was, especially given what's been described in some reports as a knife fight over the last week between so many different names. obviously, howard lutnick, now the commerce secretary, marc rowan flying in from china, what do you think of this pick? >> i'm elated for the pick. i think it was the exact right person for president-elect trump to have selected at this time. scott's experience with markets, his guidance he's offered to president-elect trump during the last year on economic policy, i really think he is the right person to implement the president's agenda. when you consider the tax negotiations, the interactions with foreign nations over retaining our status as the world's reserve currency and negotiating with china over the current trade relationship, i think all of those things, scott's experience serves him
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very well. in addition to that, managing $36 trillion of debt, his experience in bond markets are going to serve him well as he looks to continue to refinance and extend debt. >> having been someone who's worked inside this administration, at least the previous version of it, how is it going to work with howard lutnick on one end running commerce, which is oing to have a huge portfolio, especially as it relates to tariffs, i imagine, and scott bessent in treasury, if, in fact, they are at odds at least on some issues, specifically it sounds like even around tariffs? >> i mean, at the end of the day it is the commerce department and u.s. trade representative who lead efrgts on implementation of tariffs. scott has demonstrated he's fully supportive of the president's use of tariffs, both as a revenue-generating device and also as a negotiating piece. i think you'll see scott bessent support the president when he decides to use tariffs as an opportunity for us to improve
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our trading relationship not only with china but with a number of trading partners around the world. at the end of the day it will come in front of the president and scott will be fully on board with what the president chooses to implement. >> scott has been a brilliant investor. he has not managed nearly as large a team, though, over the many years he's been in the business. i'm curious in terms of the people he surrounds himself with, the deputies and the like. what kind of person you would want given he is going to oversee, something like 300,000 people. >> there's about 100,000 people at treasury. most of them over in the irs. but scott has been in large organizations and i have every faith he will surround himself in the president-elect's office and the transition team is going to help him identify people who are going to complement his skill sets. the treasury secretary is a very important person on an external basis, negotiating with not only markets here in the united states but with foreign finance
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ministers. he's going to surround himself in a highly competent management team. there are a number of people who served in the previous trump administration who have experience working with the treasury team, who understand how that building operates. and are going to be in a position to advise him on how to harness the talent at the treasury department, both among the political staff and the career staff to achieve the president-elect's mission. >> michael, i ask you about that. i wanted to read it on air. i might as well from you. we heard from senator elizabeth warren this morning wall street may be breathing a sigh of relief at scott bessent's nomination but working people see no help coming their way. mr. bessent's expertise is helping rich investors make more money. not cutting costs for families squeezed by corporate
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profiteering. what do you think? >> i think it's funny to see elizabeth warren go back to red herring. exercising of market power during the trump administration was at all an issue. if anything, it was -- remember, the increase in inflation was during the biden administration, the trump administration inflation stayed below 2% on average. there's no evidence that corporations are engaging in any kind of abnormal activity. in is just gaslighting the american people to try to take blame away from the socialist policies that people like elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and joe biden have been trying to implement over the last four years. >> this is probably the last we'll hear, but there is something maybe you could see if you were a populist that putting another -- like a hedge fund manager in charge of the u.s.
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treasury, i mean, it's an easy mark to say it's going to help his rich friends, right? i mean, it's almost a knee-jerk. we shouldn't be surprised, i don't think. >> we should not at all be surprised, but if you think -- again, we under the biden administration have seen these massive budget deficits that are going to continue as far as the eye can see. janet yellen has moved the weighted average of maturities outstanding towards the shorter end of the curve. we have to roll over quite a lot of debt. bringing someone in experience with wall street who immediately on day one can understand how to work with markets to get interest expense down, if there is confidence in the bond market because scott bessent is there and we can bring down debt service costs so we can simultaneously meet our efense costs and try to bring our fiscal situation in order, that's to the benefit of all americans, not just the rich people that elizabeth warren wants to gaslight over. >> michael, want to thank you
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for joining us this morning. i'm sure we'll talk a lot more with you in the coming weeks and months. thanks again. still to come this morning, orlando pride, orlando city and minnesota vikings owner mark wilf will join us after a special winning weekend for all three of his teams. stay tun. quk x"ilbeight back. it all sth a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks,
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our next guest had a pretty good weekend. mark wilf is the owner of orlando pride that won its first ever women's national soccer league championship on saturday, and orlando punched its tickets to eastern conference finals and owner of the nfl's minnesota vikings. they pulled out a thrilling overtime win against the chicago bears yesterday. you're capping off that great
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weekend with a visit to "squawk box." which of these three teams is your favorite? >> didn't have to be thrilling, mark. it didn't have to be thrilling. >> it was so exciting. they're all our favorites and winning tough and professional sports. so exciting. winning a championship and a parade later today in orlando, their first ever major league title. real exciting. >> by the way, doing that, just in the couple of years since your family purchased this club, too. why expand into other sports? we talk about it all the time how sports are kind of the future when it comes to broadcasting, when it comes to any of these streaming things, there's an audience and you can find them with new ways of distribution. >> sports is on the upward trend, as we know. it's a great platform. it brings communities, people together, and just the growth of it is unbelievable. just look at women's sports in particular. over $1 billion business now and the way it's grown and the way people rally around it, it's remarkable.
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>> the pride, the women's club, has really had a huge amount of momentum since your family came in and bought it. what investments did you make in the business? how are you looking at this? >> well, everything's on the upward trend, sponsorships, ticket revenue, and we're putting a lot resources in terms of dedicated people. it's the global sport, having players like marta, the greatest women's sports soccer athlete ever but women's sports in general, i think people are rallying around it, want to watch it and it's a great product. >> what drew you in? >> just, i think, women's empowerment. i think the fact it's a great, great sport and the way sports brings people together. i think it's a great asset for the community and the way the fans rally around it. the fact we have great ownership around the table at the nwsl. you see the u.s. soccer team and how it rallies every four years in the world cup. all those things point to great upward trajectory. >> it used o be the thing where
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you saw sports team and people would say, wealthy people look at sports teams and this is their vanity play. they get to do something fun, cheer for a team they care about but it seems it's become much more of a business over the last five to ten years. would you agree with that? >> it is a big business but you have to love it. we happen to love it. we grew ups big football fans and that's what our engagement was to get into the minnesota vikings and be part of the nfl and see how all these other sports leagues are growing like the nwsl, the mls. i think it's saying people want to be in great places, have great experiences. sports and being parts of a sports experience as a fan is the greatest thing of all. >> what's the most important part of this, getting fans in the seats or getting distribution so that you can get even broader reach? >> all of the above. sharing the great stories about our players and our clubs and just growing everything. the business community is recognizesing it's a great way to talk about their own companies.
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we partner with great companies like in orlando with orlando health and the same in minnesota with u.s. bank and twin city orthopedics. we have great sponsors is, great partners and our fans are loving winning. it's hard to win in all these leagues but it's exciting when you do. >> how do you go about picking the new franchises, the new teams you got involved with? did it start with the sport? did it start with the city? i just wonder because there are so many up and coming new sports that are seeing as powerhouses, whether that's f1 or even pickleball. how do you go at it and say this is where we want to be and why? >> it's a combination of the business metrics and the community you're in. we've been fortunate in both minnesota and orlando to have great markets and the ownership, the level of ownership with deep pockets that can invest in these sports are the kind of ownerships the leagues want. that's where the direction is. there's a lot of expansion going on. for instance, mls has had great
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ownership, now the nwsl looking to add a 16th team. there's a lot of good stories out there. it's about investing wisely and making sure the community benefits and the business grows. >> mls and nwls, those leagues, did they come to you, you found them? what happened? >> it was a combination. part of our minnesota vikings experience, we started poking around in our state of a possibility of getting into soccer. we spoke to the leagues. we just learned and were around the game and saw the growth, saw the great stadium experience you get. of course, the nfl has a life-long passion of ours but in soccer we saw the great experience in the stadium and sta starting to get into the media landscape. and women's sports in particular, the nwsl is a great future. >> did you play soccer?
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your kids play socker? >> i was a soccer parent. our four kids played soccer. everywhere i go when i see team sports and the way a community rallies around a team, it's something special. like what's going on in orlando. the vikings, should we be successful enough to get to that ultimate goal of a lombardi trophy, we know what the fandom will be like there. creating fan experiences, being part of the community, those things excite us as being owners and stewards parts of the franchises. >> nfc north, 10-1, 10-1, 9-2, 8-3. that's competitive. that's parity, right? is there a changing of the guard, you think? detroit's the best team in the league? >> well, the nfl, as we know, nothing's for long really in the nfl. there's always parity and highly competitive franchises out there.
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we're in a very competitive division. we're just really excited about our coach, kevin o'connell and our gm and the way we're building. you got to keep knocking on the door. >> who figured out that it wasn't sam darnold, it was the jets that caused what happened with sam darnold? >> that might be your viewpoint if you're a vet fan. >> he's big. he had so much potential. that's why they picked him, right? it took your coach to bring that out in him, do you think? >> well, all -- all i know is sam's had a great year. what we're trying to build is a great culture where all our players can hone their craft and really work on their game. sam's a tremendous talent. we're fortunate he came on here. kevin o'connell and our entire coaching staff have done a great job with sam. it's really a whole team operation that's what's great about the nfl. >> i think woody johnson is ready for another
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ambassadorship. he's like, please, i'll go anywhere. >> you can't watch? >> he's just laughing at me. >> we're rooting for our minnesota vikings. >> it's been a while. it's exciting because -- and you see kansas city again. they have a horseshoe up their -- up their sleeve. >> it's a full-time job focusing on the one job we got in minnesota in the nfl, so that's what we'll worry about. >> of the three leagues, where as a team owner do you get the biggest return on investment? >> well, obviously, the nfl is the premiere brand in the world of sports. >> how much you're putting in versus how much -- >> well, personal, of course, the nfl is a well-run league, as the other two leagues are. i'll tell you, i spend a lot of time on the women's soccer league. as a growing brand, as a relatively new brand, i think the upper trajectory is very strong. >> the amount of investment might be best there? >> percentage wise, but absolute
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dollars, the nfl is the big league out there. like i said, it's a great privilege to be stewards in a franchise of the nfl and just to be in sports in general is such a thrill. >> are you majority owner? >> we are. our family is, yes, that's correct. >> i mean, got to be worth what now? >> well, i'll leave that to you -- >> what's the last valuation? >> i don't follow valuations. it's enough following the sunday day-to-day and making sure we get a win every week, which is tough enough in the nfl. >> mark wilf, thank you. >> congrats. coming up -- i don't know what happened at the end of that game. 11 points in 30 seconds? crazy. >> a win's a win. >> okay. we'll get into everything we know about president-elect trump's economic agenda and talk about whether elon musk's doge commission has a real chance of stream lining government buauacrecry. ♪♪ amazing.
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dow. nasdaq looks solid. friday was a great day for the averages. s&p indicated up 32. take a quick look at treasuries. i thought katie was interesting, she thinks we don't immediately head back up above %5% or 4.5%. 3.6 maybe. and bitcoin hovering right around 98,000. 97,000 now. 656. andrew. president trump's white house agenda is now taking shape. among highlights, the department of government efficiency head by elon musk and ramaswamy. two joining us, former council of economic adviser chairman, jason furman at harvard's kennedy school and former congressional budget office
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director, douglas holtz aiken, parts of the american action forum. good morning to both of you. i will start with you, jason. you know the numbers better than anybody. what do you think can actually get done through executive actions? >> on the spending side, very little. on the regulatory side, probably quite a lot. but even there it takes patience. you need to sort of dot your is, cross your ts, or it's not going to get done. >> so, when we look back -- now, they've set a date, july 4, 2026 for when this project is supposed to be completed, if you will. if we were to sort of project out and meet on that day, independence day, no less, do you think they would have achieved this $2 trillion goal? >> i'm very skeptical. the spending cuts are well known. there's a bumpl of career staff at omb. by the way, they're career staff, so-called government
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bureaucrats. they work really hard, they're knowledgeable. they know where all the spending cuts are. people throughout the agencies know. the problem is that members of congress don't want to do it because it's coming out of something that they care about. some of it's a little harder than you'd think. and so the only way i think doge could help on the spending side is if it provided cover for the types of efficiencies that everyone's already aware of and would like to do. but it's really that political cover that could matter. by the way, if it also just slashes and burns, you know, it's not going to work. >> what kind of cover do you think they can provide and what kind of numbers do you think are realistic here? >> it's one thing to improve the efficiency of the government, reduce costs and no one should oppose that. it's another thing to completely reshape the size and scope of the federal government. that's what they're promising. they don't have the tools to do
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it. and so i think we're looking at tens of billions of dollars of savings. that would be great. $2 trillion is simply not realistic. they can ploy some political cover. the precedent for doge is the grace commission back in the reagan administration. one thing on is the agencies went to the commission and said, you should order us to do x, y and z and those need to be done. so, if they can identify those things, highlight them, they are well situated put pressure on congress to clean some things up. that would be a good outcome. >> what kind of stuff would you put on that list? would you start means testing social security? do you think they could provide cover for that? that would have some impact, i would imagine, on the real big numbers? >> so, that would have a real impact. i think one of the things i've noticed so far is they seem obsessed with the head counts. social security is not an expensive program because it has a lot of employees.
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because it sends out a lot of checks. medicare is not expensive because it has a lot of employees, but because it sends out a lot of checks. if they identify ways to improve the checks, the actual spending programs and get the president to back them because it's not going to happen without that and they get congress to go along, that would be an enormous accomplishment. that has not happened for 20 years since president bush tried so i'm skeptical they can pull it off. that would be an amazing outcome. >> jason, one of the things they mentioned in that op-ed in the journal last week is this idea they were going to go after stuff they said was either unconstitutional or not intended by congress. one thing they cited was corporation for public broadcasting which i thought was an unusual example. not that people don't debate the merits of funding, but because that was something that was created effectively by congress back in '67 and that budget is effectively authorized by congress every two years. so, what are the things on the
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list that you think they might start to look at that realistically they could shift, or maybe it's a political cover, by the way, for ending the corporation for public broadcasting, which is about a 500 some odd million dollar project every two years. >> that's a trivial part of the budget. first of all, the notion of efficiency is the idea you can get the same output at lower cost. there's some savings in the government from efficiency, but most of the savings are deciding certain output is not worth the cost. as doug was saying means testing social security, that might be worth doing but that's not efficiency. you'll get less money to some people. that's how you're going to save money. that's where the budget conversation needs to go at some point. and it's, how do we do a combination of spending cuts, tax increases, make it a bipartisan compromise and go with the big stuff rather than, you know, whittle around the edges of these little things? by the way, they haven't done
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their homework. ramaswamy put out a list and said, let's get rid of everything with an expired authorization. everything not authorized by congress. you know what the biggest thing is in that? veterans benefits, veterans' health care is $500 billion of savings, it would have eliminated all support for veterans. i don't think he means that but that's indicative of how sloppy he's been so far and how much harder it's going to get when he really tries to dig in and understand these numbers in a way that right now, frankly, i don't think he does. >> what kind of people do you think should be brought around the table? one thing they're trying to do, from what i understand, is bring people from outside government, the idea people already in the tent are -- i don't know if they're deep state but too close to the action. you need fresh eyes. apparently marc andreessen is trying to help them with some recruiting efforts. we've heard people like travis who used to run uber and bill ackman and others have been
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engaged in certain ways. what kinds of people n your mind, should be on this, quote, unquote, volunteer council? >> i know what you're asking but i would do a combination of people from outside the government but also people with a lot of government experience. people who worked for doug at the congressional budget office, people who work at the office of management and budget, up, a lot of the pentagon savings i know about came from the deep state within the pentagon. they would have like a helicopter carrier they really didn't want, didn't think they could deploy, but it would be made in some critical senator's state and they would want to get rid of it. there's a lot of expertise and knowledge within the government itself. combine that with outside, if you actually want to get something done rather than just having, we got rid of the corporation for public broadcasting and find some program at nih to make fun of. you can do that all day long. that's great politics. if you want to save real money and improve the government, you need a combination from outside
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and inside. >> doug, you want to be on this group? you could get enlisted. >> andrew, i want to make a couple points on that. there are places they could make some improvements. think of the department of education and the fafsa rollout. five years of preparation. they can't even deploy it effectively. that's literally indefensible. if you want to bring in the tech giants and manageal expertise to those efforts, great. that's long overdue. businessmen often misunderstand the goals of government. we don't try to minimize costs in the government. we have contracts set aside for veterans, minorities, women owned businesses. that's not an exercise in getting the cheapest contract. that's other goals. they often come in with the notion they can wipe those out, that's not going to happen. >> jason, doug, it is a longer conversation and i hope we get an opportunity to continue it. i imagine we will be talking a lot more about this. i want to thank you both this monday morning. thanks. >> thank you.
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when we come back, bitcoin's march to $100,000, we are just a hair away, sitting just below $98,000 this morning at $97,749. we're going to talk about where the cryptocurrency could go next. "squawk box" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going.
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the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. when i was a kid, my mom would always put harry & david pears in our stockings. and if you got that gold one, it was like you had won christmas. my grandmother started it and now it's a tradition that i get to pass on to my kids. and that means a lot.
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all aboard! the only etf that tracks the dow. come with me to meet the wizard. why couldn't possibly. this is your moment. i'm coming. if you think that's something to see, wait til you see this. ♪ ♪ you're good. -very good. bitcoin, as you probably are aware, came within a few hundred dollars of the $100,000 mark at the end of last week. joining us to talk about what's next for bitcoin, other crypto, founder and ceo of professional capital management. you're a viewer. you saw both michael sailor and other individual -- i have to look up his name to find it again, but i thought it was really interesting that the usage case for bitcoin in a portfolio, it can augment certain conservative strategies.
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i'm wondering, are we going to see more and more of that? is it for fiduciaries, pension managers and people that -- he was talking about narrowing the liability gap for state and municipal employees and their pension plans using bitcoin to augment the return. is that prudent, in your view? >> i think there's a couple things going on. first of all, talk about corporations, historically they've had two levers to pull. they can drive revenues or cut expenses. michael sailor introduced the idea of taking your balance sheet and creating a third lever you can pull. it's not new. real state has been doing that to secure lonz and other things. it's just that we haven't thought of software companies and others being able to do the same thing. now you have an asset growing very quickly. there's only 21 million of them. it seems to be working out. now, what i do think is interesting is because there's only 21 million of these, anyone who buys it, if there's increased demand, the price goes up. we had a fund that was anchored
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by two public pension funds we bought in 2015. we bought boit coin for those public pension funds, they're up really big on it. any time you buy an asset, bitcoin stocks, commodities, real estate, et cetera, it goes up a lot, it will help close those funding gaps. what is important is bitcoin, in particular, was a bottoms-up adoption story. historically technologies are top-down. governments and militaries adopt it first, then corporations and individuals. here you had individuals first. the reason why that's important, bitcoin is the only asset i know of in financial markets, as the price goes up, it becomes less risky. now you have the biggest pools of capital showing up and saying, it now is only big enough where i can start to buy it. so, you have central banks, pension funds, et cetera, that are saying, okay, now we're getting close to $2 trillion. i can start allocating to this thing. individuals front-ran it but the largest pools of capital are still heavily underallocated. >> so, augment fixed income
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investment for an insurance company or pension. there's some underlying bitcoin that has to rise. i think he said over a four-year period, it has to rise 6% per year. that's what he said. and he'd break even on that. anything above that, you're augmenting the return because rates have been, obviously, so low for a lot of these fiduciaries that are trying to guarantee retirees or whatever, a certain income. so, you would take that bet. you don't think it's going to be 50,000 in four years. >> well, what i think is really important is if you go and look at the data of putting just a little bitcoin, we can put 1% of bitcoin in a portfolio. it not only has the price appreciation but drastically improves sharp area ratios and others that they look at. that funding gap for public pension funds and large pools of capital is drastically underdiscussed. what are they going to do?
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they don't have many options. it doesn't mean you should throw a hail mary and put 50% of your fund into some risky asset but it means if you can take a risk/reward asset, according to fidelity has been the best risk/reward and put that in your portfolio. get off zero. >> the interesting thing about the gentleman who presented this to us on the real estate asset side of it, he shares in the upside potential. doesn't take any downside risk. the downside risk is entirely taken on by the individuals taking out the mortgage or the loan. on some of these things that come through. that's a pretty good deal. i would like to take something where i get to share in the upside and have none of the downside risk, too. >> i think there's two main stories going forward. first, bitcoin is just now entering into the financial world in terms of traditional finance. there is nothing better that wall street likes to do than create financial instruments. if they can introduce bitcoin into those instruments, they'll find creative ways to do this.
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microstrategy pioneered this idea of using a balance sheet. i think many companies will do this using other assets as well. in canada there are comes that are all putting these assets on their balance sheets and saying, i'm going to control revenue, i'm going to control expenses, but now i'm going to go on offense using that balance sheet and i think that is something that will permeate not just in public markets but we're also seeing small businesses start to do this. i have multiple people that have reached out to me describing this and i think it's going to become a big story in 2025. >> gensler, we know the date and i think that's part of the move, too. thank you. >> thank you so much. >> i like that tie. i liked it last time, the time before that and -- same time -- >> i'm gng toio wear it until i lose it, joe. >> all right. "squawk box" will be right back.
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dom chu joins us. he has some premarket movers this morning. what are you seeing? >> thank you. we'll kick things off with an earnings mover. there's of bath and body works. it's up 21.5% after posting third quarter earnings that topped estimates. also lifted the full-year guidance. the ceo said she believes they are positioned to navigate
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holiday retail environment and shorter holiday period. shares of target up 2% after oppenheimer named that stock a top pick saying those shares near to be near the bottom with risk/would he regard developing. pointed to negative investor sentiment, support for attractable dividend share. we'll end on palantir, up 4.25% after bank of america raised the target price up $75 from $55. they said in a world where efficiency, innovation and speed are the most valuable assets, palantir is the enabler and winner in this new era. for other calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro where subscribers get access to all the detail and analysis behind those calls. becky, joe, andrew, i will send things back over to you. >> thank you. dom, thank you very much. let's get one more ook at the markets. the futures have been picking up
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throughout the course of the morning. when we started three hours ago, dow was up by 300 points. now we are up by close to 400 points. a gain of 388 points above fair value. s&p futures up by 41. the nasdaq indicated up by 156. it's all happening as treasury yields have come down. that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber. stocks up, yields down on news of scott bessent being trump's pick for treasury. ten-year yield about a two-week low. the curve briefly inverts on this holiday shortened week. wall street is coming off a winning week as post election rally picks up steam once again. back to trump's treasury
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