morning. when we started three hours ago, dow was up by 300 points. now we are up by close to 400 points. a gain of 388 points above fair value. s&p futures up by 41. the nasdaq indicated up by 156. it's all happening as treasury yields have come down. that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber. stocks up, yields down on news of scott bessent being trump's pick for treasury. ten-year yield about a two-week low. the curve briefly inverts on this holiday shortened week. wall street is coming off a winning week as post election rally picks up steam once again. back to trump's treasury pick. hedge fund manager scott bessent.

what that choice could mean for global markets. warren buffett is speaking out about creating family wealth. he's giving away another $1.1 billion to four family foundations. a lot more in an interesting letter from buffett this morning. let's begin with the markets as we do enter this holiday shortened week for the thanksgiving day. you mentioned yields at the early morning hours. >> look, i think we've been controlled by the ten-year. i think there was a sense that every time we get near 4.5, it's time to sell stocks. any time we get back down to 4.25, it's time to buy stocks. it's such a plistic thing, david, it's algo drive. people at home, think, isn't it silly it's such a big thing? if it goes to 4.5, it's because we can't handle the bond load. 4.3 says we can.

it's weirdly cut and dried. >> you made two different points. one su think a lot is algo. we talk sometimes or maybe not often as we should about how much money every day moves in this market based on algorithmic trading. there are so many firms that have that at the core of their strategy at this point. then you're also talking about the deficit. i'm not -- explain the two to me, the relationship there you're trying -- >> the treasury designate, cares about the deaf fit -- i think a lot of people felt maybe what we would get is a treasury designate who frankly cares about growth or just cares about no taxes just says, look, we don't need taxes. we get someone who actually sounds like any previous treasury secretary and think it will be a little more business as usual which, by the way, we like. a lot of people criticize the biden administration, but the

stock market was really terrific under that period. we got to remember that. people make a decision that, well, biden was bad for business, therefore, the stock market was bad. it's not true. >> back-to-back 20% years. we'll see. it's happened several times in the past. these three arrows that bessent talks about, reducing the deficit to 3% of gdp, 3% gdp growth, and then oil productions up 3 million barrels a day. >> there you go. the last one is going to be hard. it's going to be hard, particularly even if you do the so-called baby drill because we did see oil go down under trump because there was too much drilling. drilling has gotten more expensive. we also don't know where to put all the oil given the fact that china is not strong. >> not to mention, we're still in an environment, which we've been in for some time, where the investor base of many of these companies is not encouraging more drilling but encouraging capital return. that's certainly been the case.

by the way, investors in that industry have benefitted from that trend, namely, you know, yes, of course you have to drill more and you want to be as efficient as possible, but return capital as well. that's been, what, how many years has that been the case? the last five, seven years, at least, right? >> i think scott sheffield, the former ceo of pioneer was the first one -- i remember speaking to him after a board meeting. we're done. we've been the most aggressive. we're not going to do that anymore. we're going to start returning capital. and, bingo, the bid from exxon. i do think, by the way, if you can make it so that we have good growth, but we don't have an increase in the deficit, well, then i think we get to the larry fink world. larry fink ceo of blackrock was saying, listen, we can grow our way out of it. and because we have such reverence for larry, which he totally deserves, it doesn't

sound like a polly anna plan. a lot of people say, give me bitcoin because we can't grow out of it. >> if you put it on the right trajectory then you can convince the bond market, if you're on the right path, then you won't be as concerned. i think that's a key. not quite sure i understand the 3 million, how that equates to -- >> 3 million barrels? >> yeah. the 3% and 3% i get in terms of goals. prices would come down, wouldn't they, conceivably? >> oh, geez. >> wouldn't everybody stop drilling because you don't want prices to come down? >> well, the headline -- the front page of the journal over the weekend is the drillers don't want to drill, baby, drill. >> we don't want further natural gas -- we finally have natural gas go up. with he should have more natural gas. no. you can end the pause on liquefied natural gas. that will start immediately. therefore you can start planning export. there's still plenty of export demand because we're the lowest

cost natural gas in the world. >> those are the headlines on the tape. sources that the administration will lift the pause on the lng export permits, asking for congress more more money to fill the spr, maybe withholding iae funding if they don't focus on oil and gas. >> i think russia and brazil, a great piece this morning about how there's great infrastructure training, a big, big project right now to make it so the sbr works. so the spr cannot take in all the oil the trump administration would like just because part of it is down. a big part of it is down. you can't take oil in. you can buy all you want, but if you can't story it, doesn't matter. >> good point. obviously, natural gas is also part of drill, baby, drill, i guess. >> yes, it is. >> we have talked many times about europe and the fact that, you know, we need to be exporting to that market, which is no longer taking russian natural gas. >> i'm pretty close to a lot of the pipeline companies, all the

natural gas companies, what was hysterical they woke up one day and there was a pause. these guys were spending billions of dollars in infrastructure to get natural gas, liquefied natural gas, that takes a process right there, and then the export, including really making the -- dredging channels, multiyear. then you threw this monkey wrench in. now we're trying to figure out what the heck to do. this would be -- it would happen immediately. >> so, then the bigger question is whether or not treasury can the deficit, at least as a percentage of gdp, while giving no tax on tips or social security income or over time. >> or even giving up -- getting rid of the salt tax cap. >> or taking corporate to 15. >> or just being really happy if you're wealthy. is that what you're going? >> or corporate to 15. >> dividends -- >> the number of tax cuts as potential -- by the way, that's the one they'll get started on, and need to, right away in the trump administration.

i'm talking about the tax bill because they will want to do it under reconciliation, have to do it while they have control of both houses of -- >> and who do those tax cuts to? >> a lot go to wealthier people, potentially. you also want to avoid the expir rigs of the trump tax cuts from his first term. >> extend those. >> that was broader based. yes, it obviously as well -- not people here who are dealing with the salt tax where it was the biggest tax hike of our lives in many ways, but, yes, for many. >> i mention because there are so many anomalies about the election that democrats forgot -- they didn't stress inflation. the republicans -- many people are in states where there's not as much wealth voted tax cuts in. there's many anomalies. >> there's the doge commission, big piece last night looking at the players that are reportedly

involved in the washington post. not just ramaswamy and musk but marc andreessen trying to get data they believe government data about the workforce that's siloed in these antiquated buckets. >> again. i think you come back with the amount of money that the whole -- like the defense department spends. it doesn't come -- they could cut $2 trillion and it doesn't really work. >> $2 trillion from the -- now, some believe when they think about $2 trillion in washington, they think about it over ten years because that's the way they will do these bills. then you're talking $200 billion a year, which is a lot more doable and conceivable. >> you have to go after public broadcasting because every single -- boy, you can't -- >> that's really going to save them a lot there. >> that is right there. >> that's going to take care of the whole thing. >> the hell with them, man. >> and then they can move on.

>> podcasts, they don't -- is that what they're saying? i guess it doesn't matter. >> shorter term, goldman over the weekend saying year-end 6100. we're entering a really historically sweet spot for the markets. >> we are. there's these great -- look, i thought there was rbc capital market, ten things we're thinking about. they were almost all great. but i think the one that's best, sentiment set up as modestly constructive in the 12-month view. not a lot of people who are really bullish. after all this run. i don't know how that happens. there are people who fight this move. this was the first night last night david, where futures were not down big. i think a lot of that is because, frankly, the treasury secretary was not someone who wanted to throw a bomb. >> although you're referencing strategy spotlight. >> she talks -- >> she's great. 5% to 10% decline is what she's talking about near term. >> i just like the idea that sentiment remains neutral to negative.

i don't really understand it. carl, why are people negative when things are so good in the market? now we do have this element of froth. i think we all admit. i'm working on that tonight, where there's -- the bulls are in control of certain stocks and they're not going to let go. a lot are -- i put them in the apple oven category. you have something that happened at macy's this morning. like 100 million, it's not missing because the caption didn't change. they didn't hit the numbers. it's 120 million, it's ugly. the stock is barely down. what do you have to do? >> you're referring to the fact they did not acknowledge expenses for delivery, i believe. perhaps as high as $154 million. over a number of years. >> shouldn't that stock be down a lot, honestly? >> i don't know. i wondered why it wasn't giving up anything. >> that's the kind of -- >> when you see an accounting error of -- >> accounting errors mean sell.

>> maybe not here. >> doesn't matter. >> meantime, the bath and body works guide is guy. up 18 premarket. all the names, jim, that raised last week, walmart, williams sonoma, gap. >> they have that here. gap, by the way, of the ones you mentioned, williams sonoma was on, laura alber, i think the stock can go higher. the gap numbers were incredible. athleta inflected. people just keep -- they don't acknowledge the turn in gap. it is magnificent. old navy is turning, david. banana republic is even turning. gap has already turned. we're going. we're going to the banana republic. there's a brand-new banana republic and -- >> i went to the one at 30 rock last year, i think. >> did you really? on the way to porterhouse -- >> it had gone higher end again, i noticed. >> he's got it. richard dixon has it.

what happened is, you used to be able to go to gap and then you would go to banana republic. they were kind of the same. interchangeable. and that had to change. you can't do that. >> right. >> you can't ask people to pay a little more for the same stuff. >> right. meanwhile, tomorrow, jim, best buy, kohl's, dick's -- >> dick's is up 7 in the premarket. you have to watch best buy. we sold some. nice gain. the notes on best buy are like bath&body. this is really bad. everyone knows it's really bad so buy it. then the club is so crowded, no one goes. it's the yogi berra stock. >> yeah. >> it is. i think -- was he from montclair? >> i believe that's right. >> leading intellectual -- >> for many, many years. long-time resident. >> good school. >> by the way, this is usually a pretty good week for the xrt

relative to spy. week between black friday and black friday itself. >> if there's a good game on friday for amazon, hey, you know, just keep hitting buy. it's like boom, boom, boom. >> this is courtesy of b of a here. look how many times xrt outperforms the broader market. >> how did our treasury secretary do during that run up there? new treasury secretary. >> we don't have a new treasury secretary yet. >> oh, you're right. designate, designate. mccormick is no longer designate. he's it. >> for senate -- >> yeah, that race is done. >> casey conceded. >> as long as identify been alive, there's been a casey. never knew what they did but i voted for them. that's important. >> to david's point about salt,

i mean, it only takes a few in the house and there have been some vocal -- there's been some loud voices in the northeast about the tax bills. it's not going to be smooth sailing, necessarily. >> we do have lots of articles about how trump is being wealthy in new york again. which i think is kind of interesting. counterintuitive. how badly did the democrats blow it? did they do anything right to democrats? david, give me something they did right. come on. come on. >> give me a break. come on. >> jim, the popular vote margin is the narrowest since bush v. gore. >> why couldn't you say that? >> pop you lar vote margin is the narrowest since bush v. gore. >> i'm amazed, i want to point out. if nvidia is down, that may be the second day in a row nvidia is down. now, that would be something. >> that's the -- dan niles made

the point this morning, jim, that broader market was up 1.5% last week even despite the nuclear rattling out of russia and the nvidia guidance, which wasn't necessarily blowout guidance. >> given the fact it's the greatest performing story of all time, i call it the saquon of our market. it's the saquon aspect. >> i assume they won last night. >> what country -- >> you would know it if they -- >> i think we should show some runs where he breaks -- oh, shoot. he seems to be faster than everyone on the field. >> when it takes him a little while to get up, you worry, don't you? >> but he bench presses 650 so i'm not all that concerned. >> the giants let him go. and then they let xavier mckinney go. mckinney is also one of the best players in the league. >> let's show jones versus

saquon. >> what a year. >> was jones on the couch? >> you guys are dominant and did washington lose? >> my -- >> yeah. that was crazy. >> that was a great game. no one wanted to win. >> everything happened in the last four minutes. >> my wife reminded me, she said, don't forget, you don't play for the eagles. when you say we, you don't play for the eagles. >> you don't. >> i'm not even in the front office but there's my buddy howie roseman. >> you did give them a speech. >> i used to give a speech every year and somehow i got excluded. >> what happened? >> what happened? i'm on the outs. that's all right. i got us. >> you'll always have us, jim. >> thank you. we'll take a break here and take a look at the premarket. obviously looking for a strong open at the opening bell. we'll get to some box office stuff over the weekend. interesting numbers. dow futures up 400. a bunch of calls on affirm, taprto mst ia minute.

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take a look at the futures. we'll see if the s&p can make another run at at least a closing high, which was about 6,100 a couple of weeks ago. oil, by the way, down a full dollar on multiple headlines that israel and hezbollah have agreed to terms of a cease-fire. we'll get to that. cramer's mad dash and the eng lln mite.

let's get to the first "mad dash" of the week. we'll talk about the second largest company in the world after nvidia. it's very neck and neck. >> it's a nice horse race. this is a morgan stanley piece that will move apple ahead of nvidia. it's a great survey. it's talking about, yes, the apple a.i. is bringing people in. they're talking about the idea they could easily get a $9 a month fee. i mean, this is the type of thing where i'm starting to say, this is the way that the revenue stream, the service revenue stream could go up dramatically. the gross margins on anything like that is big. david, a.i. may be a hit for them. there's a lot of criticism about microsoft copilot, a lot of ads

this weekend about it. >> are the ads positive or negative -- >> by microsoft. >> i thought maybe it was benioff running ads. >> no, he hasn't done that yet. the ads don't show me -- it's like the ads look like a lot of lines going on. i didn't really understand it. it didn't make me want to buy it. we'll hear from best buy exactly and by hp exactly how big the a.i. pc is. everyone just says it's big, big, big, except for the people who buy them, which is not a big number. i do like this, david. i think the iphone upgrade cycle is elongated. this has been my plan for a while. you got to stay with apple. don't trade apple. just own apple. it's going to be elongated. david, the big final thing, competition, a lessening headwind to iphone demand in china where tim cook is. now, china has been gigantic headwind. >> well, huawei has become a

much more significant competitor again to apple in that market. >> i don't know. the prc seems to look the other way when it comes to apple. >> we'll keep an eye on apple shares, of course. we'll talk a bit about warren buffett who has sold a lot of apple shares. still owns quite a few as well. you can catch us any time and anywhere. listen and follow th"sawone quk the street" opening bell podcast.

target is moving higher. oppenheimer moving the stock to top pick status. cease a compelling risk/reward scenario. they say the updated guide does capture some discretionary headwinds and marked down risks. >> i think it's possible. i still feel the price differential, too much order at walmart to e-com versus shipped, which is target, is so great that you can't -- you can't do it. i think that target has -- this is something i've been hard on. target has to find multiple

places, multiple aisles where they are selling below everybody else. right now it's price. i don't think that piece really targeted what the difference is and what went wrong. they're too expensive. period, end of story, they're just too expensive. >> let's get the opening bell on the cnbc real-time exchange and the big boards, global ship lease doing the honors. at the nasdaq, yhn acquisition one limited,. we haven't seen breadth this positive in a few days, jim. >> i do think the split, when palo alto split, they announced it on "mad money," i thought for sure the animal spirits would kick in and the split would start to matter. it has not. that's actually a relief, to some degree, because we know splits create no value. at the same time, i thought for sure people would say, oh, it's splitting, let's buy some, which had been the ethos for the last couple of years. something to watch. doesn't seem to be encouraging

buying right now. >> nvidia comes to mind and a few others. >> again, the -- >> david, do you think the market got smarter that there's no value created from a split? >> maybe. on nvidia, guys -- >> don't tell me you have something on nvidia. >> no, i don't really. i'm continuing to pay close attention to this ongoing debate about foundation model pretraining and whether there is a deceleration in the rate of improvement. we've talked about this. and many others have as well. most recently i was listening to my new favorite podcast, brad gersner and bill gurley talking about it. jensen says no. he says there is no deceleration in the rate of improvement for these foundation model pretraining. by the way, even if there was, there's certainly an argument to be made that given growing inference and so many other areas where you need more and more computing power, ala

blackwell, it's not going to impact demand. but it's still interesting. and worthy of being aware of. >> i'm coming back and saying -- well, jensen is sticking by your five to one ratio how much money you make if you order something. but i am saying that it's time for the mag 7 to break up. i say that because when nvidia did well and said that there was no price degradation, all the companies -- all the hyperscalers went down. people attribute it to google being attacked by the justice department. completely untrue. google -- maybe in 2027 something will happen. don't get all excited. but i think that the more that nvidia makes, it's now taking, extracting its worth from the hyperscalers. people are not -- i couldn't believe no one recognized it. i said, wow, eureka, am i really alone on this? those stocks went down because nvidia is going to hold the price point. there's another article today --

>> right. with demand seeing absolutely no deceleration -- >> sold through. >> for potentially years to come. >> the gross margin is 75. they could go up to 76. >> they aren't making improvements in the models anymore. or if the improvement is so much smaller than it was from one to the next over the last couple of years. >> they haven't laid it out. they haven't laid it out, but they would tell you that some of that is because it seems like -- >> they've run out of data. that's part of it. they have to come up with synthetic data. >> but i was talking with them. we were talking about meta a.i. there's mark zuckerberg saying, mine is going to be the best. not yet. it's not the best. the way to be the best is to have more blackwell. and i think blackwell being the iteration, the current iteration for nvidia. and i thought that the meta piece basically says they're going to have to -- meta is cheap. >> the ray jay piece?

>> yeah. >> make it a favorite pick. >> a market multiple, how is that possible? and you have rfk jr. attacking the cereal, the people who are putting coloring in food. all those stocks sell at a higher multiple than meta. >> software, by the way, thanks to b of a, has now outperformed chips for six straight months. a lot of the names they point out over the weekend, jim, that announced a -- hubspot, they're ul double digits. >> and i think marc benioff will do a major, major push on agentic -- >> he is doing a major push. >> new level coming up. >> new level. new agents -- >> planning more of the ethos. i will tell you when i spoke with -- i spoke with nvidia on the call, they said, jim, you better start thinking about how to use the term agentic out there because that is the term. googling agentic, they don't

have that. >> they don't -- >> agentic just started. >> you just started using it. >> i'm using agentic. i'm all in agentic. >> benioff has been using it for a while. >> he's seen the ads on tv for gemini? >> yeah, i saw them. >> huge marketing push. >> gemini's google's large language model. >> right now the salesforce campaign isn't ready yet because matt hasn't finished this. >> say this? >> matthew mcconaughey -- >> alphabet is advertising on sunday night football. >> i know. jonathan kanter, the attorney general, i hope he doesn't watch football because i think he would feel, wait a second, they're right in my face. >> he's looking for a new job. i wouldn't worry -- >> how do you know? did you get his resume or something? >> i'm sure he's going back into private practice. what else is he going to do? >> he's not going back to paul weiss, i'll tell you that much. >> really, you know that? >> i'm just presuming that.

>> why? because he was -- google was a big client of theirs. he attacks google, and he's going to defend google? even a person could not move that. >> dollar sign being intimidated by a human being. >> i'm proud of that. >> as you should be. >> 27 years i've had that title. longest running dollar sign. >> you're one heck of a long running dollar sign. we have a rally here, guys. >> no kidding. >> as i always like to say, no one has the keenness for the obviouvideo of saquon bursting through -- >> yes, we already watched that, okay? we already watched that. >> there are other teams. for instance, the chiefs really win a lot. the lions may be the best -- >> the lions win by 50 points. >> but we never seabout the lio.

why is that? >> because you're not from detroit. >> would he seal them in the nfc championship game. >> if my broncos get any better, i'm going to have to start competing for your air time. >> i think bo nix is better than people realize. courtland sutton, never talked about. >> speaking of dollar signs, jim, a lot of box office dollars being counted today for our parent, "wicked," $114 million, the best opening for a film based on a broadway movie and "gladiator," amc pointed out 5 million movie goers. >> how does fandango -- here, you said, david, that we don't -- the treasury secretary's designate is comcast's soon to be former parent. >> yes. >> that's how you say it? what do you say? >> it's not soon. a year. >> are we disowned? are we disowned child? >> well, no, brian roberts would

say you're not because he's going to maintain his same level of voting control in the spun company. spinco as we like to refer to it here. >> i like that. >> as you pointed to, it will be one of our many assets. >> i'm not sure what fandango does anymore. >> are we like daniel jones, weren't we cut? we were cut, right? when was the last time you were cut? mine was eighth grade. >> you're not a free agent, jim. don't think about it. doesn't mean your contract has been nullified. okay? >> no comment. >> that's his fighting face, by the way. i know that face. i don't like it when i see it. >> i don't like to lose. it's been since mrs. turoff in fourth grade. i had perform attendance, how about you? >> yeah, pretty good. i had a stretch of like five years where i didn't take a sick day. >> is that true?

>> yeah. then i did last year. >> you took five weeks. you went to kyoto for five weeks. >> i went to kyoto for three days. >> my father was stationed in kyoto. it wasn't you. >> that was in -- >> everything is great. i love the movies. >> can we talk about buffett's latest letter? >> sure, let's go there. >> i thought it was interesting. he's always worth a read. i encourage our viewers to just read it because warren's communications are always just worth a read. i'm searching for it here. i've got it. you know, in it he talks about the fact he's going -- he still has 206,363 class a shares worth about $470 billion. a lot we already know. he's basically going to allow his three children to decide what to do with that money. he's also giving money to his foundation -- their foundations, excuse me, currently, which

will -- at 1600 a shares. then he makes a number -- as only buffett can, a number of other observations that i thought were worthy at least of discussion. one is, and he does this a lot in his annual letters, talks about how lucky he is to be an american and to have been born when he was and to be born the person he was when he was. things didn't look great when i arrived at the beginning of the great depression. then he talks about the power of compounding, an important lesson for everybody. by the way, he's become so much wealthier over the last 20 years. final 20 years of his lifetime, not necessarily his last year, but stepping on banana peels in circulation at 94, huge sums in savings. he calls them deferred consumption units. he can pass them along to others. he also has a suggestion for parents out there. he says, whether you're middle class, upper class, wherever you are, incredibly wealthy,

actually talk to your kids about it and have them read your will before you sign it. kind of an interesting, i thought, interesting observations on the part of the oracle. nobody will replace buffett when his time, as he discusses quite openly in this letter, is up. >> no, it's a great letter. >> nobody. >> as usual on point for a lot of people. particularly when you've got this big wealth exchange that i think is very important. we have to talk about. there's this giant wealth exchange for baby boomers to the next generation. the next generation just wants to be in bitcoin. you have to widen out. >> yeah. yardeni has written a lot about wealth transfer, generational baby boom wealth being handed down. your point is the younger generation has unreasonable risk tolerance, is that what you mean? >> i think they have it. i think they feel we have unreasonable lowered expectations. they have higher expectations. right now they can't, as larry

fink would say, they feel they're not going to be as wealthy as this generation. maybe the way to get ahead of that is to buy a lot of bitcoin. there's no resistance to bitcoin going higher. >> you're talking about a generation that might have lived through the financial crisis. and then lived through covid. >> yes. >> there is maybe a sense that, carp diem. is that what that's about? >> there's yolo, all those things. those things mean you have to make it when you can. they're making it when they can in bitcoin. i acknowledge it. how can you disagree with it? it's a tidal wave with the president-elect. >> it's been a tidal wave, as you have pointed out. not just bitcoin itself but so many other entities connected to it. coinbase has been -- >> they bought another 5 billion last week. >> he keeps buying. they're getting valued at a multiple to his holdings, to the holdings of microstrategy. >> they convert. free money. free money. >> i didn't see it. what are you talking about?

what convert? >> he did a convertible. >> microstrategies? >> yeah. >> sailor, i remember when he was a great software guy. >> e used to say, how is the software business, by the way? >> yeah. so it's a mrs. lincoln situation. >> benchmark goes to 650. can accord goes to 510. trying to keep up with what's happening with this name. >> david, i think you're -- not just to say your time is passed because you're focused on ellison. every ellison -- >> i'm sorry, what? >> apparently ellison is not part of the ellison family. you were doing some ellison work. i thought you were doing some ellison work. >> yeah. i've been looking into some -- i've been looking into this very interesting story involving college football. >> can i just say the -- >> and a recruit -- >> that game this weekend, the high state game. >> i'm trying to confirm a couple of things in terms of larry ellison and making sure we have that right.

if we refer to the michigan -- what is this thing here? champion circle, they are thanking -- their founding members and others associated with michigan founding circle, who worked tirelessly behind the scenes because they -- they are keeping -- or they should say, they are signing the number one recruit in high school football, a kid named bryce underwood. he's a quarterback. he was committed to lsu, but the nil money now is incredible. it does appear, and i'm basing this on some reporting based on this note here from them, the champions circle, that larry ellison and jolynn -- >> his wife. >> we were trying to confirm whether -- what the relationship is. but she's a big michigan alum.

and apparently they've given as much as $10 million, which for larry ellison, if you take a look at oracle's stock price, would be nothing. but that has resulted in them being able to bring this kid bryce underwood to michigan away from lsu. >> i'm going to be a little naive -- >> they call her his wife but we're trying to confirm this. >> does it matter it's a hard to get in school? any role there at all? excellent program. excellent academic program. is that involved? >> michigan does have excellent academics. >> is that involved with the idea? are they completely divorced now? >> the nil money has completely changed the face of college football and/or college sports, particularly football and basketball. >> what it was was the combination of in the nil and t rule. >> how about transcript? >> there's oracle. ellison, remember, we like to remind people, owns 41%, roughly

a billion shares. you can get to his oracle holdings and then he has holdings far beyond -- he may still own that tesla position. he took a fairly significant position in tesla some time back. >> that would be the most well capitalized entertainment company in the world. >> now you're referring to paramount, which is very different. but larry ellison is, in fact, one of the key financiers behind the takeover of most of paramount being done by sky dance, run by david ellison, his son, and redbird, the private equity firm that i report on endlessly. that continues. that is going to close at some point next year or early in the year. larry ellison will have a significant ownership position there, given he is a lot of the money behind it. as muchbillion , i believe. >> here's my plan for paramount, theme parks. >> you like theme parks? >> yeah. >> maybe they want to do something with us and spinco. maybe they want to come spin with us.

>> we could have a cramer show on cartoon network. >> although, i think they want to grow. i'm not sure they have interest in jettisoning their cable networks. the company could take peacock and merge it in and paramount plus could get together in some fashion. create some union there. >> when you're watching football on youtube and you're in fantasy and you're watching, you're watching. cooper kupp, wow. i'm like, but they haven't hiked it even and, boom, you get cooper kupp. you realize that you're watching it on a ten-second delay. it's ridiculous. you can't talk to anybody. >> this is why the challenge will be to give the viewer a seamless experience on streaming as you can get on television. >> right now, everyone seems to know that saquon scored. i'm thinking, when is saquon going to do something? >> how many -- you mentioned saquon more than you're mentioning nvidia in this show. >> yes, i am.

yes, i am. because right now nvidia is not having as good a year as saquon, as of last weekend. >> i'm not so sure -- >> look at that. wait a second. does he get through? oh, my god, he broke out. they're going to get him. he has a bad ankle. they actually ran away from him. you're supposed to run toward. that and the fa account that when you go to michigan, it doesn't -- michigan is like the philosophy class, their unbelievable theater program. >> that is definitely true. >> will he be involved -- which program? which program, david? >> i haven't talked to bryce underwood -- >> is he going to go to graduate school? >> graduating from high school and going to have $10 million or maybe more. >> i thought he might go to stanford graduate school and make something of himself. who knows. as we go to break, record highs. dow all-time high. s&p got to 6020. that's an all-time high as well. now up 22.6% for the year.

ten-year continues to be soft as the whole group does. ten-year, 2.96. stay with us. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right

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take a look at the dow heat map. all-time highs for the index. only three components in the red. they're all tech, as you can see. nvidia, ibm and microsoft down just a touch, but being led by a whole host of sectors. amazon, home depot, merck. we'll get "stop trading" with jim.

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time for jim and "stop trading". >> i put out a top ten list every day as part of the cnbc investing club. procter & gamble has been a horse. two reasons, as da davidson said in his recommendation, looks like china is going to come back. secondly, in a world bobby kennedy jr. is taking aim the food companies, there's a diminished group of companies that you can buy, consumer package goods company. they tend to trade together until bobby kennedy jr. became

the designate for health and human services. watch that. it's an easy one to own. >> interesting. yeah, staples, i mean, would you agree with the take that the m&a appetite is not as intense in that space? >> i totally agree. i also think these companies have no earnings growth. you go to the supermarket, actually, even the power of the supermarket has been going towards walmart and going towards costco and even kroger. these companies do not have the leverage they used to have, except maybe proctor. >> how about tonight? >> i think there's a little froth in the market. my researcher and i feel it's time to reveal which companies the bulls are in charge. doesn't matter what you say. and i think that just your take, david, palantir is one. i know you like to talk about the earning power of palantir. >> it's true. i can't get enough. >> thank you. >> wedbush takes it to 75. >> yeah. wow, i mean, what can i say? >> is that dan ives? >> sqm, what is sqm.

>> palantir? has to be. >> saquon. oh, no, it doesn't. doesn't have a symbol yet. >> saquon -- >> i'm going to take down saquon and then you pay me. i still want to know about michigan. is it the drama team? the chess team? it's a great school. doesn't matter anymore. nil means you don't have to apply. coming off the opening highs, holding s&p 6k as yields continue to be well behaved and home builders, regional banks lead us higher. stay with us. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star.

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♪ good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." live as always from post 9 of

the new york stock exchange, take a look at stocks starting their week strong. the s&p up about half a percent. the nasdaq comp up 0.4%. a nice rally to start the day. the dow up 450 points. take a look at treasuries, part of the story where there's buying today and yields are coming a little bit lower. the 10-year yield just below 4.3%. it's a broad rally. almost every sector is higher. consumer discretionary is one of your best perfect forming sectors. real estate up very strong today so broad and the nasdaq up 0.4%. tech is playing in. information tech as a sector is lagging. here are three big movers we're watching. look at bath and body works gaining double digits after a top and bottom line beat as well as raised guidance. we'll talk winners and losers this holiday season later this hour. speaking of retail, macy's under pressure after the company

reported preliminary results that missed expectations and also disclosed an investigation into an employee who macy's says intentionally made erroneous accounting entries to hide more than $130 million worth of delivery expenses over several years. the stock down 4%. also keeping our eye on bitcoin, of course, after hitting a new all-time high of a little more than 99,849 dollars. the crypto up 40% this month alone backing off today a little bit but still at 95k. guys, as far as what we're watching this week, we do have notable earnings, especially the consumer earnings, as we get into the holiday season like a dick's or nordstrom's, kohl's or macy's, some of the big retailers. and then economic data, i think the highlight will be the pce. remember thursday is thanksgiving holiday, so we'll get the fed's preferred measure of inflation on wednesday, and this is the market obsession.

why? because the fed has been obsessed with it and trying to tame inflation. there is some expectation that we'll see a stronger month-over-month number in terms of core inflation stripping out food and energy up 0.3%. that's the expectation. and, again, it would be a little bit firmer than where we've been in the last six months, so questions over how the fed is going to deal with it kind of inconsistent fed speak on whether they'd be open to a pause as soon as december. most economists are now forecasting that they'll pause in january and cut in december. guys, what i'm paying attention to today, though, the forecasts for 2025. they're starting to come out, and they're looking very strong as far as the economy. here's, for instance, bank of america economic outlook for the year ahead. a brave new world, they call it. we expect another year of unbalanced growth characterized by u.s. outperformance and policy uncertainty which will impact the euro area the most. stable 2025-2026 global growth in the 3.2 to 3.3 range.

we upgraded our forecast for the u.s. but downgrade them for the euro area. we expect china to grow below targets. and that's kind of the viable for, david, what we're seeing in terms of the outlook, which is continued u.s. outperformance, which we see in the capital flows, which we see in the u.s. dollar strengthening and in the economic data. >> yeah, the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. >> deutsche also came out, stronger u.s. growth and inflation, higher -- this is also -- it comes with some caveats, which could get in the way of all this optimism. higher federal reserve terminal rate than previously expected with the opposite conditions for europe, because if we get better growth and get firmer inflation, does that mean the fed can't cut as much, so that's a risk. the other risks that i'm reading about, which are still very much wild cards in the trump administration, tariffs, of course, which could hurt growth and also -- >> create inflation. >> -- create inflation and the immigration policy that could be

negative for the labor market. >> and also create inflation. >> and also create inflation. the market is telling you net-net the policies look positive and there's this brighter u.s. economic outlook, but i think the question is what he does and what this administration does in that front, why you're seeing optimism on the scott bessent pick. hedge fund manager, betting against the british pound and the japanese yen. he knows the markets. >> he's a macroeconomics-focused fellow. >> which is encouraging. >> obviously that's 30-plus years ago in terms of the britt, pound, but he's been running a hedge fund for quite some time and ran soros' hedge fund and then ran is subsequently and he has his 333 plan we were talking about earlier. >> which would be a big cut to the deficit, right, in half. >> represent of 3% of gdp. where are we now?

>> 6. that would be positive for the outlook for the u.s. economy and 3% growth obviously very positive. >> certainly would be. >> oil production. the question, though, does it moderate the impulse on tariffs? that's, i feel like, part of the story of what the market is saying. >> none of these things are knowable at this point. tax policy is something that will certainly -- they're going to get t it pretty quickly in the new congress, but where do they end up? where do they really end up in terms of tax policy, sara, will be key. to your point on tariffs, once again, we're going to have that conversation that we had during the first trump administration. how much is the negotiating position and how much is just going to happen across the board? i guess we'll find out but we simply can't know right now. >> goldman, for its part, as these forecasts come out -- so they say that 10% universal tariff, which is not our bass line, would boost core pce by close to 1%. so we're starting to get some

economists to quantify the inflationary impact of some of these tariff policies which i guess we just don't know whether they're part of the deal, negotiation starters or actual policy. >> 1% would put the fed on hold, wouldn't it? >> for sure. going up core pce from the high 2.6 to 3.7, they wouldn't want to see that. that would be difficult. as far as holiday spending, in the more immediate term, following these forecasts we've gotten, we have some great charts here on the holiday spending. so, first of all, on inflation, goldman looked at -- okay, let's look at soft line spending outlook. this one from ubs. and you can see toward the end it looks good on the two-year basis the trend is up from last year, and improved almost a full percent month over month, so they're looking at better spending plans on retail and then the only other one i thought was interesting is that goldman looked at consumers' attitudes toward inflation and, yes, this year, 2024, which is the purple line, people are expecting more expensive holiday

shopping, but look where it is relative to where we were in 2023, 2022 -- it's actually come down a little bit. so maybe consumers are finally perceiving prices are moderating as we've seen in the data but we've been waiting for consumers to feel that and see that, and maybe that bodes well for holiday spending. broader markets today, our next guest outlines four reasons for a thanksgiving rally, fueled until the end of the year. he thinks s&p can reach 6100 by them. tom lee joins us, head of research and a cnbc contributor. tom, great to have you. >> good morning. >> happy thanksgiving in advance. you do write about some clearing events we've gotten through, right? >> yes. >> clearly bessent to treasury and nvidia earnings, too, removed uncertainty? >> yes. we can tell the market was holding their breath on both. once nvidia reported, the markets began to levitate and, of course, we're seeing the market reaction today to treasury secretary. these are both good events but

also showing there's been a lot of cash on the sidelines. which is why we're rallying. >> right. although making a pretty good yield, i imagine. what's the impetus to leave those sidelines if rates can hold these levels overall? >> well, i think one thing we have to keep in mind, there's $7 trillion in cash on the sidelines, which i think in general portfolios are overweighted and risk free, and i don't know if it's going to be 5% two years from now, so i think investors as they're planning ahead and seeing an economy that is resilient, the case for equities is very strong right now. >> have you done any work on earnings this year or the year after? >> we're working on it now. our outlook comes out december 12th. >> all right. we'll check back with you then. vor at this point? >> well, i think the template that we think sense is buy things that either benefit from a dovish fed or a trump white house which is small caps,

cyclicals like the financials, the regional banks and industrials, and, of course, crypto, especially bitcoin and some of the proxies. >> did you hear what we were talking about? can the trump administration get away with the pro-growth policies and a dovish fed at the same time? because some of them work against the fed being able to cut rates? >> i would say the market is skeptical at the moment. that's what we're hearing from our clients, but that also means that's room for positive surprise, and i think one thing to be mindful of is the fed can be dovish, even if there's resilient growth as long as inflationary pressures and expectations remain in tech and so far that's been the case. >> has it, though? we're seeing a little bit firmer core readings on inflation and i guess it depends on what he does with tariffs. >> yes, but if you look at survey expectations, whether the federal reserve survey is seeing five, even six-year lows on inflation expectations. we're back to prepandemic levels

from what consumers see. if oil falls, as you know, that pushes down the inflation forward curve. >> on the one-year expectations. fives have not been as well behaved. >> those surveys are notoriously funky. if you look at the range of answers and data, some people put 1,000%. they continue to skew the actual medians. >> right. meantime, there is this school of thought that commodities are not suggesting rampant inflation or return to a double top cpi. you have europe increasingly exporting disinflationary narratives, certainly china, right? >> that's right. and i think there are many people who thought inflation would pick up because of tariffs. as you know, it's not clear really what ends up being implemented, and if we get milder tariffs, that's less inflationary pressures. >> page one of "the times" was about companies elbowing each other to get in front of the president-elect to make their case to be carved out of tariffs. >> yes. >> and then this morning reuters has a piece on the farm industry, again, looking to be

ex empted from deportation efforts. how much do you think it will be embedded in the next year at least? >> i think this is what investors are concerned about because we know there was a campaign that was run on tariffs and deportations, but, as you know, those can be very harmful to the economy, so i think that having the right cabinet picks can actually get us into sort of the right blend of outcomes, and i think that's what the market is starting to price in. >> meaning you've been impressed with the picks so far? >> yes. not only have i been impressed, but we can tell from client feedback, the markets really like this. >> we're up over 25% on the s&p this year. we only have a few weeks left in the year. what were we up last year? >> over 20. >> i mean, what does history say about the ability to put another year of significant gains after two like that? >> it has happened because we're talking the late '90s, '97, '98,

'99. realistically for the audience here, 20% is not a realistic expectation for the s&p. i mean, the s&p return should mirror earnings growth, double digits, and then look for opportunities where there's undervalued sectors like whether it's the financials or small caps where they can get more than double digit gains. 20% a year is very difficult. >> i think we've had eight instances of back-to-back 20% years since the '50s, right? >> yes. >> it's not that uncommon. >> yes. and i think one thing we have to kind of appreciate is when someone says a median return for the s&p is 9%, there's actually very few plots that are 9. it's either up 15 to 20 or down 10, so i'll take the 15 over the 10. >> let's do that. let's talk soon. good to see you, tom lee. as we head to break, our road map for the rest of the hour. black friday just around the corner. we have top retail stock picks

for the holidays. plus, closing arguments in the justice department's case against google over its advertising technology getting under way this hour. what is at stake for both sides. the president-elect making one of his most important picks tapping scott bessent to be treasury secretary. what that means for the markets and thadniraone mistti's economic plans in a minute.

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the news of the morning certainly having an impact on the market. president-elect trump picking hedge fund executive scott bessent to be his treasury secretary. what we know about mr. bessent, megan. >> reporter: while bessent has seemed to be the leader of the pack going back to his role as campaign adviser to trump, he did have to wait a couple weeks to get the nod while trump interviewed a few other candidates. remember what trump was looking for in the process, someone well liked by wall street who was fully committed to his economic priorities including and especially on tariffs. so picking him now means trump sees that combination in bessent in wall street pedigree and market experience plus that deep loyalty to the agenda. so take tariffs, for example. bessent has argued trump's threats are a maximalist negotiating position and did put an op-ed in fox news celebrating tariffs, that came amid fears he wasn't protectionist enough, but

even then he called for using them strategically. and i will note that's the same language that biden and the democrats use on tariffs not what trump uses when he talks about universal duties. bessent is deeply worried about the deficit, why he got involved with the campaign in the first place. the best way forward for the u.s. is to grow its way out of debt. he'll push tax cuts to spur an economic lalapalooza and questions of what he thinks of the fed and its independence. he softened his call for trump to appoint what he was calling a shadow fed chair but did say on our air trump should appoint someone early and criticized the bank for its half-point rate cut before the election. you can start to see why there's clearly some hope on wall street as the market reaction today is showing that bessent might be able to temper some of trump's policy views while carrying out the policy agenda that he ran on. guys, back to you. >> megan, more thoughts from you on the tariffs in terms of what you really can or can't expect in terms of his support,

bessent, or how much weight his voice will carry in the conversation? and, again, i know you're a lighthouser expert so i expect he will be in the mix. >> reporter: even while we have bessent's pick now we know he'll be atop the treasury, there's still a whole econ team, ustr as well as national economic council of economic advisers. he could get any of those roles or be a trade czar inside the white house. bessent has a long record of talking about tariffs. at one point he had this good line saying the tariff gun will be loaded but rarely discharged. i don't know if trump agrees with that. we'll have to ee who takes the lead in trade negotiations. i would think that lighthauser takes the role on tariffs. >> i mentioned his chops on fx

and betting against the japanese yen was one. has he spoken about the federal reserve and this idea of a shadow fed chair or intervening more from the branch into the federal reserve? >> bessent is more known than howard letnik would have been or closer to him to push harder. bessent is more nuanced but started the shadow fed chair idea saying trump should appoint someone early and everyone would start listening to the new fed chair instead of powell even if powell was still atop the federal reserve. he was saying that trump should appoint someone early. still having someone there that would be the figure head and the voice for the administration.

>> his criticisms of the i.r.a., of janet yell he, getting an elderly workforce back into the labor force, a lot to discuss about bessent. megan, thanks. as we go to break, watch palantir hitting new all-time highs as bofa hikes to 75 this morning. the stock is up 60% on the moh. > still ahead, closing arguments in the justice department's case against google. the latest from just outside the courtroom in a minute. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric. practically. so, let's get to work. (♪♪) growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there

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closing arguments under way in google's advertising technology trial with the justice department. eamon javers is here. he has more from outside the courtroom. eamon, can you just start off for all of us in terms of explaining what this case is versus the case we've been talking about so often lately in terms of the remedies, because i think it can be hard -- it's easy to confuse the two for ourselves and our viewers. >> reporter: yeah, absolutely, david. that's right. we're here at the rocket docket, the eastern district of virginia in alexandria, virginia. this case, today, is focused on google's ad tech technology,

different from the case going on in the district of columbia, which is a case largely focused on the search mechanism, and that is the case google has already lost, and that is where we're seeing these remedies being proposed to break up the company. in this case on ad tech, we saw the lawyers arriving here this morning all freshly scrubbed and ready for closing arguments, what we're getting today. 90 minutes on both sides. let me give you a sense of the two arguments. you see what the doj has been saying, that google operates on multiple sides of the ad market as a buyer, seller and operate the ad exchange that's in the middle of the market. doj is also arguing that google has use add portfolio of ad tools to create a monopoly in advertising search. for its part google has fired back with a statement of their own saying what the justice department is doing here is essentially unfair, saying the doj wants to force google to build tools that would let other companies who don't have our standards for safety and security market to our customers and use our technology. this case under way as of 10:00

a.m. this morning, so we just saw the very beginning part of the doj's argument and the first argument right out of the gate is one they made under trial as well, that it would be as if goldman sachs owned the new york stock exchange, the department of justice says, because google owns the exchange on which all of these ads are bought and sold and also is a buyer and seller of ads, therefore, they say, that is simply unfair. it's a conflict of interest and it needs to stop. we'll see whether the judge agrees with that. closing arguments should end up winding down here some time this afternoon. back over to you. >> if they lose this, eamon, then what? what are the repercussions? >> reporter: well, then we'll go into a remedy phase in this case as well, and you get this interesting ynamic where could google be forced to spin off the double click is one possibility. we'll see whether that comes to that but will end up in potentially two dueling remedy

phases at the same time in which the department of justice is arguing to different judges in different districts what should happen to the future of google. it's a tricky situation for google to find itself in and then a.m. t some point that woue appealed even possibly all the way up to the supreme court. there's a lot of legal maneuvering between here and there, guys. >> eamon, thank you, and thank you for the precise explanation so we can keep these things straight. let's keep going on this topic. our next guest says if the government wins it could change alphabet's revenue model. stanford law professor, the acting assistant attorney general during the landmark microsoft antitrust case, which i remember well, quite some time ago. doug, fast forwarding to today, we're at closing arguments here. what is your sense in terms of what has been presented thus far, and what legal theories the government is relying on to

potentially prevail? >> well, it's hard to get a sense of a trial if you haven't been in the trial and really studied the record. certainly the news reports suggest, not surprisingly, there were documents that looked bad for google and statements that looked bad for google and, of course, as you just reported with google being both representative of advertising sellers and advertising buyers and owning the largest exchange in which the auctions take place, it looks problematic. but the issue in the antitrust case is whether google got to that position by some kind of anti-competitive conduct or whether it got to it by simply building a better mousetrap, as it were. the government is arguing that there were anti-competitive acquisitions, particularly double click, that google has tied separate products together and, most important, that it engaged in what they call self-preferencing, that it used, for example, this ad server,

which represents website sellers providing advertising opportunities to buyers. it configured it to favor each ad exchange over others. and the question will be whether google, in fact, did the conduct that was alleged and, if so, whether google prevails in its argument that on balance the kinds of things the government is complaining about improve the quality in the safety and security of these auctions for the benefit of both advertisers and advertising sellers. >> if you can prove self-preferencing, as you just said, wouldn't that be anti-competitive? it would seem that it does obviously prevent others from effectively competing. >> if they're self-preferencing in ways that are intended to exclude rivals and don't promote quality or better service for the advertising sellers or buyers, that's an anti-competitive act. the law, however, is unsettled in the area of self-preferencing because it gives great deference

to firms to deal with other companies when they choose to do so and not if they don't want to choose to do so. and there's a kind of unresolved question and whether implicit in that is the right to say, well, i'll deal with you but only on certain terms, only with my particular dealing. i think google will have some legal arguments, although if self-preferencing is found, it will have some difficulty, i think. >> it's a little deja vu for me because i covered the eu antitrust and similar charges were brought against google for abusing its market dominance basically in the ad business, and, look, they were talking about a breakup, a $1.5 billion fine. interestingly, recently that got overturned by a court, and the judge said the european union made errors in the assessment of the duration of the advertising contracts, that basically they were sloppy about it, and so google had a victory. i just wonder if there's any

correlation, if they use between what's happening in the eu on some of these cases and what's happening in the u.s. and if they use that material. >> well, i think what happens in the eu is not directly going to affect what happens in the u.s., but it may shed some light on the underlying facts. the facts might not be as bad once you dig into them in detail as they look at the newspaper headline level when you report, oh, gee, google has an algorithm that seems to favor one of its businesses over another. >> doug, finally, the search case that we've been focused on lately was undertaken during the first trump administration. this case was actually a biden administration case. does that matter here as we head into another trump administration? is it possible that the justice department under trump will treat this differently? >> well, always an important question when you have a change in administration whether the next administration will pursue the case and, if so, if they

will pursue it as aggressively or broadly as the predecessor. you're quite right to suggest that since this case was the biden administration, not the trump administration at the outset, and the biden administration has been very aggressive -- this is a very aggressive case -- there's some possibility the trump people will support it only half-heartedly, if at all. on the other hand, i think, unlike other administrations, i think the antitrust folks in this one are likely to be influenced by white house preferences, and i don't think president-elect trump is any fan of google. it's not at all clear what the administration will do. i do think they'll take to some extent their cues from the white house. >> well, doug, appreciate your help in trying to sort of navigate this. thank you. >> thank you. let's get a news update now with courtney reagan for that. the supreme court will not decide whether graphic illustrations on cigarette packs violate free speech rights of

tobacco companies. the warnings include people with lung cancer. the fda plans to enforce the labels in december of 2025. california's democratic government said today the state will continue to offer electric vehicle rebates even if the on coming trump administration eliminates them federally. governor gavin newsom said it could come from the greenhouse gas reduction fund. trump has said he will get rid of the credits up to $7,500. at that dhl cargo plane crashed and skidded into a house as it attempted to land in lithuania's capital. one crew member died. authorities say there is no sign so far of sabotage. back over to you, sara. when we come back, the s&p 500 hitting new all-time highs. three sectors that could see more gains going into next year. and do not forget you can catch "squawk on the street" anytime, anywhere. follow the podcast now available on spotify, apple music and

more. we're back in just a moment with the dow holding these gains up 443 points. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

a broad- broad-based rally o into the final trading week of the month. transports and mid caps hitting 52-week highs. our next guest says the bull market is, quote, alive and well going into 2025 favoring financials, tech and discretionary. bmo chief investment strategist brian belski is with us. a target of 6500 next year. welcome. >> thank you for having us. good morning, "squawk on the street." >> you do write, a time for some common sense and prudence and even some humility. what is that about? >> well, so many of our compatriots, other strategists, economists, love to make the big

market call. and they've been wrong just trying to call the market, and i think they've really missed the stock market as a market of stocks, and that's what's maintained our bullish stance, quite frankly, and consistently and some people have called it stubborn since 2009 when we came out with this call that u.s. stocks have entered a bull market. it's tough to be bullish that long, especially given all the negativity and all the doubts, and then in your first hour you had mr. cramer talking about sentiment being still negative, and it's true. and even the great tom lee earlier this hour was talking about all the cashing on the sidelines and investors really doubting this, carl. and it continues. it just baffles me. but our sense is this, the u.s. market, in terms of an equity asset, remains the best asset in the world, number one. number two, you get what you pay for. too many people are focused on valuation, the world's worst metric in terms of forward

performance. number three, in terms of what we're going to be seeing with respect to u.s. growth, it is going to be consistent. we may have other areas of the world seeing, quote, unquote, snap back growth. in terms of earnings growth consistency we continue to believe it will be the united states. >> so that leads you to, what, $275 number on eps? >> it does. and our base case is $275, carl. we think as we poll our clients and lookality our wall street research in terms of had the financial sector especially, we think earnings in the u.s. financial sector are massively understated with a big catch-up trade coming on the earnings front with the broader theme of scale, asset managers, and broker dealers, scale meaning the big banks, but also very small banks, we think, can do very, very well. just polling our clients we

speak with, we continue to believe the majority of clients on the institutional side are at best neutral, meaning market weight financials, and there's more to come there. >> so you sort of poo-poo'd the valuation argument as a reason to be cautious. what do you think is then a reasonable valuation, and when do you start to pay attention to it? >> that's a trap question, sara. thanks for trying, but i'm not going to give you a number because i think anybody that says 22 times is the number, that's simplistic math. the market is not as easy as coming up with a valuation metric and an earnings target. that doesn't mean -- that doesn't equate to how you model markets. we model markets from a macro p/e longer term trend and a dividend discount model. we can get to 6700 where rates are going to go. with respect to where you look for value overall, we can talk about that. we've been bullish in print, in print, in the published

marketplace for well over a year on small cap stocks. other people talk about small cap stocks and we've been in print on it. why? if you take a look at all of the valuation metrics, not just p/e but price-to-sales, price-to-book, operating metrics like return on assets, return on equity, sara, these small cap companies look amazing. we're start to go see more and more broadening out with respect to performance. we really think small cap stocks and mid cap stocks are going to do amazing over the next three to five years. >> and when it comes to large cap, i notice you talk about equal weight, being able to pick up, carry some water the mag seven has done the lion's share of this year. do you think that continues? >> we do. and i think for those sectors that are impacted, okay, impacted by the mag seven, there are three sectors. the makeup of the mag seven are three of those sectors. i think you have to look at bar

belling that. first and foremost, on technology we continue to believe, and it's been our theme the last ten years, the big cap technology names are the new consumer staples. then it's apple, microsoft, even nvidia, by the way. google and netflix are communication services names but more consumer staplish. within the consumer discretionary space which you have amazon and tesla in the mag seven, you want to bar bell amazon and tesla on one side and on the other side add alpha by, quote, unquote, stock picking and look at lulu or marriott or home depot or even tjmaxx from a portfolio construction standpoint, the names, i think, over the next couple of years that will really gather a lot more performance. >> on a day where the russell is up 2%, working on taking out its 2021 high. man, it's taken a while but it's happening here, brian. next year is going to be interesting. good to see you. thank you. brian belski. >> thanks so much.

>> everybody loves the small caps. a few financial names hitting fresh 52-week highs at the open today. we're watching that, just another strong day for the market. there's bank of america, goldman sachs continuing its recent run, visa also higher as tesla gives a little bit back and so does nvidia, by the way. that's wt'has weighing on the tech sector. after the break, retail hovers at 52-week highs. we have top picks at the holidays next. don't go anywhere. with high quality custom apparel, accessories, and promo products, all backed by our guarantee at customink.com.

>> following marathon il's acquisition by the move up into the s&p 500, we're looking for under the radar oil and gas names that could be ri fpeor investment or consolidation under the new presidential administration's power plan for the country. tune in to our "market navigator" segment on "power lunch" at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service,

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etf attracts them, xrt coming off its best day since early october and hovering at 52-week highs ahead of a crucial time for the sector as, of course, we kick off the holiday shopping season. our next guest says the key to black friday shopping will be how retail ers attack promotion this year. what do you expect as far as promotions, alex, and does that mean margins are at risk? >> the fourth quarter is really ing this year for a few reasons. we've got the hardest sales and profitability of the year, a compressed calendar, the shortest number of days between black friday and christmas and one less week for a lot of retailers that report on a retail calendar. what it means and what we're braced for is potentially here higher discount to compete, a really competitive backdrop. this is arguably the most uncertain or nervous heading into holiday season.

we've also seen some sibs of excess inventory and also this competitive setup that i just went through. >> so, with that setup, it feels like you really have to be nailing it when it comes to giving the consumer what they want and picking winners and losers in this retail environment. who do you like? >> that's a really key theme for us. i'm happy you hit on it, that we're entering this winners/losers type world. we saw it begin in the second quarter where sales and profitability performance began to widen across the group. we think that only gets bigger in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. within that type of framework, there's a few things we're looking for from like a scorecard type of perspective. the first is your inventory levels, we want lean. where is the fourth quarter bar? we want low. a few names are tjmaxx, on running and gap. those are the three we think can prove holiday leaders this year. >> the gap turnaround, how well appreciated is it by the street

at this point, because we've seen a big gain so far this year already. >> sure. look, this brand reinvigoration strategy the new management team is pursuing is clearly bearing fruit but comes on the back of really deep work, the prior management team did from a cost savings perspective. some of it is priced in but not all of it. i think what's holding that stock back right now is the old navy division, over 50% of revenue, and it did have a bit of a challenging quarter on weather headwinds but otherwise gap, athleta, you couldn't ask for a better trend. that's the final piece of the puzzle that might be difficult to shine through in this competitive fourth quarterbackdrop but they did say there were green shoots. i think as people get more convicted around leaders, it's tough with these more fashion oriented names. that stock is testing $30 and

has room to go here. >> they have zach posen as the creative director and that has turned around the look and style. he's so talented. alex, bath and body works, today it's having another monster day. is this a turnaround story? was it expectations got too low? is there still opportunity here? >> sure. so on bath and body works, something we've focused on all year is this revenue inflection. the stock has been sort of a reverse play whereby candles and sanitizer category overearned and has had to come down and that core has been a drag on the business. what we learned today is that core returned to growth and they're expecting ongoing growth. that's arguably been the key catalyst for the stock for some time now. it's a little bit of that catalyst coming to fruition and a bit of offside positioning because people were bearish, seeming it wasn't going to come to fruition. i think that was a positive surprise this morning.

>> yeah, you like it, right? although i think have a lower price target than where it's trading now. >> yeah, they've caught up. look, i think what we were not convinced on heading into this print was that revenue inflection would be durable. i think i have a slightly different view exiting today just in terms of the commentary they gave on the core versus the adjacen adjacentcies. it's a starlet compared to the rest of my coverage in that it's in a higher growth, higher margin category importantly at 85% domestic sourcing, you think of tariff risk heading into the next year, and now that we have this potential return to growth back in sight, i think you see people willing to underwrite the story more so. it's been one people have wanted to get more positive on because of those factors relative to the rest of retail and apparel as a category. it doesn't surprise me the move today. >> yeah, i mean, nice 18% move.

we don't talk about it too much. $8 billion stock. thank you for joining us to talk through some of these picks. barclays raised their target to 6600 for next year. we'll talk about that call on on movers" in the next hour. first, ubs upgrading the big six to buy. we'll find out why in just a couple of minutes.

ubs out with a big call on big tech this morning. let's get to dom chu with more on what to watch. ubs is upgrading the largest six tech stocks, tech six to an overweight rating aligning the outlook with the technology sector. the ubs analysts are saying it expects their performance to be more aligned with the other but stronger than the broader market. what they had was current projections for the group and a 10.5% expansion compared to the rest of the market. they were also adding the six big tech companies led returns in 2024 and are expected to see continued superior growth for

profits. they also note these firms are reflective of trends impacting the group, not recommending individual stocks on their own, but what it comes down to is they saw some more neutral performance from some of the big tech -- big, big tech names -- compared to the rest of technology but now they think as a group that whole technology sector will outperform the broader market as well. sara, if you take a look at the names, they didn't put them out individually but we are generally talking about those magnificent seven type names. i'll send things back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom. dom chu. a quick note as we close out the hour, big news in formula one. max verstappen securing his fourth world championship under red bull in a star-studded race saturday night in las vegas. guys, we pay attention to it, also, because the big business is just jumping in since the last time i updated just in the last week, there have been huge new partnerships. ibm signed with ferrari. mastercard, which was -- all the

teams were competing over, signed with mclaren. more and more consumer facing companies but b-to-b sponsoring the team or the league. obviously this is all what we talked about in the documentary that's on peacock, which you can watch "inside track" about the business of f1. it was an exciting race and an exciting season, david, because max did not win every race like he did last year. >> right. right. there was actual competition. >> mclaren will win the constructor championship, the team championship. >> there it is, your documentary on peacock. >> it's relevant as ever. i was there in vegas. what a scene, of course. all right, we have a lot more live market coverage for you straight ahead. don't go anywhere.

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♪ good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange. today 6600 barclay's hiking its 2025 s&p target saying the street is underestimating big tech. its chief strategist is with us next. >> president-elect trump picks his treasury secretary and why some say scott bessent could be positive for the markets. >> why u.s. airlines are betting big on europe for their next leg