i think the rotation in order to be a full rotation we need to start seeingy come into index fubds funds but actively traded funds. $300 million is allocated to the top ten stocks. the bottom thousand stocks get $5 million spread over the thousand. >> you sound it will get half a percent of the allocation. >> we have to leave it there. thank you so much for being with us today. thank you for joining us as well. closing bell starts right now. hi, kelly. thank you so much. welcome to closing bell, i'm scott wapner here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour will begin with record highs for the stocks. with the dow and s&p hitting the new milestones earlier today. let's take a look at the score card here with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we are green across the board. the russell is actually the outperformer today. it's been up nearly 2% sitting right about there right now. most sectors today too are

green with the exception of tech and energy. utility has been fluctuating a bit. we'll watch all of that. markets are clearly liking the expected nomination of hedge fund veteran, scott bessent as treasury secretary. yields lower, oil lower. you can take a look at the yield complex there. we'll show you oil too, which is down. and wti by 3%. and how long can this rally last as investors game out what the new trump administration will mean for the markets. well, let's bring in our experts. the top ten private wealth manager with morgan stanley, and cameron dawson with new edge wealth. nice to see you both. >> thank you. >> cameron, you get the ball first here. so as we look towards, you know, 2025, okay, now we know the treasury secretary and who it's going to be. we think we know the kind of policies are going to be and what he's going to champion along with the president. what will it mean for the market? >> it's a question of what that translates to for earnings. meaning are these policies actually going to change the earnings? we will see a lift to earnings estimate going into '25. if we don't, meaning these

policies might take more time to play through into the market actually get enacted, then it's a question of how do we tolerate high valuations, stretch positioning, stretch sentiment going into 2025. so i think it's definitely a question mark of how much impact he could have in the short run as we round the year. >> how are you thinking about this as you advise your client on what this new year will bring? >> i think the base case is pretty in line with the rest of the street right now. expecting probably above average growth with regards to earnings, the economy continuing to do well. we're expecting about 75 basis points worth of cuts in 2025. so it is probably a pretty normal environment from a return standpoint, investment grade, treasury. and i think what's really interesting is what's going to happen. we're in a situation right now where 2024 earnings came in a lot better than expected. gdp came in better than expected. we're in a situation where we went from hard landing to soft

landing. now we're in a soft landing to no landing situation. you've got a new administration. we saw how powerful fiscal spending can be with regards to pushing the economy into the next level. we're really in a situation where you get animal spirits going. you have ipo market picking up. you could be in a situation where maybe the fed cuts in december, but come in 2025, you could be in a situation where the feds will have to be a little bit careful with regards to reducing rates. you're in a situation where the u.s. is situated where they are holding higher and the rest of the world is taking the rates lower. so that could be a really interesting dynamic going into 2025. it's not necessarily your base case, but it could be an interesting case within one of the tales. >> and maybe the fed should be taken off the front page? if you're going to stimulate higher growth, you're going to have lower taxes and lower deregulation. i mean lower regulation. um -- maybe you don't need to be so reliant with these rate cuts, where some success are not needed to the degree as the

market once hoped and thought? >> to the point it could be a risk if you deliver more rate cuts. if you're cutting rates as aggressively as what the dot plot currently has forecasted, it could be throwing lighter fluid on a fire, given how easy financial conditions are. you're at a point where these markets aren't begging for rate cuts because valuations are high, credit spreads are tight. and then the risk is if you don't get those cuts and everybody else is cutting, you could have that stronger dollar, which then creates these wild cards of what it means for u.s. stocks verses international stocks. so there's a lot of different ways that is not as easy as expected could impact these markets. >> and your case, chris, it's 7,400. >> exactly. >> that tells you, you know, how much i guess in your mind maybe the goalposts have moved. for somebody who has been relatively cautious and more positive after a while, but now it feels like that's a goalpost change in call. >> yeah, i think that's my point in regards to the extremes that the higher

extreme and that lower extreme are starting to become more probable verses the base case. so you could have a situation where you get that activity. to cameron's point, you start getting the flood of dollars coming into the u.s. you've got a lot of dollars sitting on the sidelines coming in and a lot of chasing into the market. that could lead to some euphoria that could really push these markets significantly higher. the flipside of that, higher for longer isn't great for everyone. as we get closer and closer to that maturity wall, you'll see the key difference. >> maybe it won't be as higher for long as we thought, right? i mean rates have come down. what we think we know about the kinds of policies that mr. bessent is going to pursue is a higher level of growth and thus more growth is going to impact the deficit, which theoretically will take some of the edge off of rates. is that right? that's how it should work. >> he might want to pursue

those kinds of policies. i think it's a really good question as to how he can pursue those policies. >> why so if they just reuped the tax cuts and they're going to cut ranks? doesn't one sort of feed off the next? >> it certainly helps. the question is he did talk about wanting to extend the tax cuts. we might not get a further cut to corporate and income taxes or corporate taxes, which just means we stay at that level. we don't get that extra boost. the question is do you see treasury being able to impact energy policy to get three million more barrels a day? they do not control spending. they don't control taxation or funding. they fund that deficit, but they don't control that deficit. >> no, but we're already on the good side of supply and demand. at least what we're producing here, we have never produced more? >> and so the current projection of the deficit to gdp actually assume the tax cuts don't get extended. so it's an incredible journey from the 6.9% where we are today to 3.2%. it's a question of over what time frame we would actually get to 3%, and if you get a lot

of government spending cuts, that actually would weigh on growth in the near term, simply because you're pulling back on government support for the economy. >> but you could get, you know, using the word pulling back. you could get pulling back on regulation fairly quickly. that's the one thing that could happen quickly? >> you could, but you also need to remember this is the second round of trump with a lot of trade policies that were enacted in 2016 and 2017 that are about to get renegotiated in the next year. and so i think one of the key issues that you'll have to deal with and cameron talked about this as sequencing. where do you see the tax cuts and the tariffs coming in because i think that's really going to drive specifically the path with returns within the market. if we're in a situation where we have tariffs coming in, we have trade issues coming in. that could create some real pressure on the market before we would even get to these tax cuts. and the question is are we even going to be able to get there? so a real big part of it had is going to be understanding exactly what the administration is going to be able to accomplish and what that is going to do with regards to our

trading partners. >> yeah. if you look at parts of the market, and you take the russell, for example today. russell is up 11.2% in a month. is this just getting started? it is obviously gaining out what might lie ahead? >> technically respect the trend. it's an uptrend that broke out to its first highs since 2021. relative performance is turning. the one thing to watch is that eps forecast for 2025 for the russell 2000 now stand at 51% growth. so maybe we don't question those forecast today or for the next month. but at some point, maybe when we get into first quarter earning season by the time we get to april, that 51% is a very high bar. but for now, it seems there's a catch up trade, there's a trace for positioning, a lot of people underweight, and the technicals are turning. >> and the other piece of that would be the fact that so much of the russell's unproductive. some companies can't even meet their interest requirements in regards to the amount of money they're making. so you have to be selective in

regards to what you're looking in the small cap world. but the flip side to that is looking at that deregulation that you were talking about should provide some uplift and tail wind with regards to certain areas within small cap and mid cap, which is an area where we are exploring to add more exposure today. >> if you want to talk for a minute about financials, right? people look at the russell and say well, it's such a big part of financials, we know about the smaller bank issues we've had over the last 18 to 24 months. financials are the best performing sector since the election, i mean for the obvious reasons, right? if you're going to have more growth, and you think you're going to have more capital market activities, you're going to have more. maybe rates come down. you take the edge off of that side of the small bank, smaller bank equation. is that a place to keep running with? >> yeah, we're optimistic about the financials because you're not at the point yet where valuations are stretched. you have seen people be understand weight financials as well. and so if you desensitize some of the credit issues or the

worries about credit from financials, at the same time as you get that boost in activity because of optimism. we haven't seen ipo activity come back. let's see that starts to materialize in 2025. but then i think we still have to ask the question. is higher for longer rates bad for people who are refinancing debt? and that is the big question of how much were people counting on the fed coming to bail them out in 25 and 26, if we don't get as many rate cuts. we could see those refinancing come in at much higher levels. >> sure, but what if you have a stronger clip of growth and then fewer regulations on the space at large? does that cancel out the idea? it's not like interest rates are so insurmountably high that, you know, neither the market nor the economy can function under these current levels. i mean historically, let's be real. >> yeah. i think it all comes back to the fact that we haven't seen a recession. we are not making a recession call. so this economy has been able

to tolerate higher interest rates, simply because you are seeing incomes grow faster than those costs of debt that are growing. so as long as that maintains. as long as we have that pro growth policies, then these areas like the financials can do well. it's a question of if you start to see the economy deteriorate. we are not making that call. but if you see it, that's when the story will change a lot. >> i think it's a question of just knowing what you own, right? i don't think that all these financial companies are painted with the same brush. some of these if you look through the loan book, they are probably just fine. if you look through the other loan books, you'll say wait a second, this will be a problem. i think financials don't necessarily have to be regional banks or big multi-national banks. you could look at other opportunities like the alternative space, which we have talked about before. >> the private equity stocks have ripped. >> they are better than most technology companies. >> for obvious reasons though. >> if you look at those business models, you're looking at cash flows that are probably 12 to 15% for the next seven to ten years. yes, they've moved a lot. yes, they're probably pricing in some of that, but still if you then get a healthy ipo

market, that will be pretty attractive for those types of names. >> the valuation of the market, 21.5 times. what seemed overly expensive to some a month ago, is it reasonable today because of the idea of these more stimulative policies that are going to lead to higher growth? and thus higher earnings? if you do all that and you can get rates to, you know, stay where they are, if not, come a little bit lower. is that justified? >> i mean our work has shown that basically it is. if you could be in a situation where earnings are above average, average is probably 8 to 9% if you're looking at kind of 12 to 13% over the next two years. and you're in a situation where monetary authorities are cutting year over year, then historically that's an environment where you could hold a higher pe ratio over this time period. >> can you expand it? >> in our view, we wouldn't expect it to expand it. i think the good news is if you look at, you know, the mag seven and one of the most

important names of the mag seven that was trading at 40 times is up over 400%. that pe is actually contracted because earnings have been so strong. so? you get the stronger earnings, i think you could justify multiples at that level. the flip side to that, if you do run into an overheated economy, you have a situation where rates have to stay higher, exuberance goes higher, you could be in a situation where that lower tail becomes a real issue, and there is no margin of safety when you're trading at these levels. >> how about the evaluations? >> they aren't a timing tool. we wouldn't make the argument that they are overwhelmingly sustainable or attractive at today's levels. but we also aren't making the argument that they can't go higher. because in this environment of fiscal support and monetary support, there's no saying they can't push to new highs and really retest the highs we got back in 202. if we go much higher though, we think we would be in that bubble territory where valuation becomes a risk in and

of itself eventually, but again, it's not a one-year timing tool. it's two, three years out. >> what's the message since chris mentioned the mega gap and you were eluding to nvidia when you were talking about a valuation that has come in because the earnings have gone up. underperforming today is the nasdaq. it's been underperforming for about a month. what do we think about this space? >> look, i think a part of that is there is probably more opportunities that people are paying attention to with regards to this next administration. you're looking at opportunities in the market that we have been talking about in the last six months that have been starting to get valued. financials is another good example of that. i think the other thing you have to think about is understanding the private markets, where we haven't had ipos over the last three years. and you're in a situation where you have a lot of buyers and historically would be buying these that aren't hiding in these mag seven names. you could be in that situation where they are looking to kind of create some liquidity to take advantage of either deals

on the private market or when these companies will become public. that's something else that you could be seeing. >> there are some bets on a roaring 20s, just starting a little bit later than planned that these new policies are going to usher in a higher level of growth, better prospects moving forward, thus financials, industrials, more oriented sectors are going to do better than tech, and that the trade that's been working is going to continue to work. now there's no reason to believe that the mega cap trade is all of a sudden going to start overtaking and outperforming once again. is that correct? >> mega caps face two head winds when we go into 2025. they're very popularly owned. positioning is crowded. and they have a big second derivative slow down in their earnings growth. meaning where they delivered really strong earnings about 60% growth this year, that slows down to about 30% next year. so the question is how the

market digests that, regardless of valuation. and then it's a question of can the 493 be pick up the slack? that gets put to the test this quarter. the 4 493 is expected to grow this quarter. and so when we get to january, we will be testing this broadening out thesis of if these other companies can deliver on the earnings growth. >> the question is can we pass the test? right? if a big test is coming, can we pass it? the market is placing their bets that the grades are going to be pretty good. >> i think that's a part of it, but the other question is does what happeto the s&p 500 driving that growth because it is a significant part of the index, right? and if you're in a situation where people are not necessarily buying into the growth of the mag seven, the mag seven isn't performing, you know, that really becomes more of a stock picker's market where you're looking at for those opportunities that aren't necessarily the lion share of the s&p 500. >> what about outside the u.s.,

right? you mentioned the possibility of our central bank being at a much slower pace than some of the others, whether it is bank of england, etc. does that matter? do those markets in europe, for example, have a greater potential upside than we do for those, partly for that reason? they are starting at a much lower base and probably carries a little more risk because the economies are certainly more uncertain, than ours appear to be today. >> in order to make a bullish non-u.s. call, you have to make a bearish dollar call. so unless you're confident that the dollar is going to turn lower and sustain to turn lower, which is a hard call to make in the face of a potentially less easy fed, as well as the potential for tariffs, which both things typically support a stronger dollar. so our call has been we don't feel comfortable making a weak dollar call, which means we're less confident of a turn in international, but we have to acknowledge those stocks have been absolutely pummeled in the last month.

they are very cheap, but valuation, not a catalyst. also watch the earnings. earnings are significantly underperforming in non-u.s. markets, which explains the majority of the underperformance. >> how would you address that when you look outside the u.s.? >> you know, i can't say ditto, but i think it's very similar to what cameron is saying. i think in our mind, you're in a situation where most of these markets, they've got political things in most of them. you're in a situation where economic growth is coming down, and they are forced to actually have to reduce their rates. so i think it is really hard to come up with that dollar negative call. from our standpoint, all we do is see more and more flows coming into the u.s. whether it is on individual side or on corporations that are now dual listing on the place of the new york stock exchange or moving to the u.s. just because there is so much money flowing into the country. >> what do your clients talk to you about as it relates to bitcoin and crypto? what kind of exposure do you have them, if any? >> and look, i think from our standpoint, there is obviously

a lot of tension around it, and it is obviously moving pretty dramatically. you could make a case that it is twofold. one is the issue with regards to fiscal deficits around the world and looking for another kind of alternative to the dollar because it's not the euro, it's not the yen, it's not chinese wan, so maybe this is a historic value. the other is you're in an administration that is more accommodative to thinking about it. from our standpoint, we haven't necessarily made a direct call on one cryptocurrency or another. we are probably playing it more so with regards to the infrastructure. >> do you look at it as it should be a piece of whatever thing you suggest should be the basket of alternatives that one has in their portfolio, that that falls into that basket rather than talking about it as an asset class of its own? >> we're not necessarily at that point yet. i think there's a lot of clients that want to have that conversation, but we're not that point where this is an alternative to the dollar. >> yeah. i mean we talked a little bit about the more speculative

parts of the market. you know, there's a lot of stuff from yester year if you will that has been going crazy. meme stocks, and crypto kind of feeds into that a bit. point of concern or not? >> it's probably too early to be a concern at this point. we are seeing this speculative up. and look at the surge in leverage etf on single stock volumes. look at call volumes surging. all signs that speculative behavior is coming back, but we've been in it for a month. the question is how much longer does it go? and we saw it last over a year back in 2020 and 2021. >> yeah. well, we shall see as we watch bitcoin creep towards $100,000. guys, thanks. that was fun. cameron and chris toomey, right here on post nine. a look at the biggest names moving into the close. hi, kristina. let's talk about target shares that are surging 5%

after on hyper oppenheimer suggested it. and they lowered their q4, as well as full-year outlook. shares are still down around 8% year to date. i want to stick with retail because macy's right now is dropping about 3% after it announced it would be postponing the release of its q3 results after it said an employee purposefully hit up to $154 million in delivery expenses. of course, the employee is no longer working for the company. macy's was suppose to report before the bell on thursday. no longer the case. shares down 3%. scott? >> all right, thank you, kristina partsinevelos. up next, ashley macneill is going to break down her playbook for the software space. right here on post nine next.

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software stocks have outperformed semis for the past six months by almost 30%, but can that momentum continue into 2025? and let's ask ashley macneill, head of equity capital markets at vista equity partners back with us at post nine. nice to see you again. >> you too. >> that outperformance has been pretty incredible. what do you attribute that to? >> it is a few things, but i really think it's on the back of the quarter's earnings as we saw some real momentum in software driven by consistency and the revenues, disclosure around cap x and generative a.i., and most importantly that got a lot of excitement going is the contribution of generative a.i. to the top line revenue growth, as well as margin efficiencies. >> and that you think they have

legs to it and to the new year? how do you assess it after what has been an incredible run? >> there is a fair amount of pull forward in valuations. but if you look at all software models, we are trading around the ten-year average. so it will feel there is a sustainability going into '25, and i do think '25 is set up to be a great year for software. >> yeah, i mean, you know, it had is your wheel house for those who don't know. i mean, the firm specializes in software. it's a great time to be a seller, theoretically because valuations have gone up so much. what you guys have done so well. what robert smith has made his living literally and figuratively on is buying low and selling high. we've seen the value of the portfolio of the companies go way up. i mean you don't disclose that, but i think we could make that assumption. what now though, as we look into the deal making crystal ball into '25. what do you see? >> look, i think 2025, you heard me say this before, is

going to be a very robust year for deal making. i think it will be a robust year for ipos, but also for private placements. i think it's time people start deploying capital. i think we've got, you know, over $4 had trillion in the private market. and we've got $6 trillion sitting in the money market on the public side, so i think it will be a really robust year, and we're excited. software is starting to show some real truth points for being investable when you think about generative a.i. >> have you changed the way you're looking at the prospects from the result of the election? have the goalposts on that regard moved in your own mind? had >> i think there's been some pull forward of valuation and expectations. i still think we are very much in a wait-and-see mood post the election. so i think they're still going b to have a lot of things that will need to play out, as we understand how people and this administration will prioritize things, and what things they actually decide to pursue with the figure verses maybe address some later years. >> the idea of more ipos.

you know, a more robust capital market can obviously lead to that. >> yeah. >> but pushing against that is the fact that companies are staying private longer, especially within the technology space. why? well at least in one regard because the access to capital is better than it has ever been. that's why every private equity firm is tripping over themselves and they are getting into private credit. but the benefit is those that have access to capital. they don't need the public market. when does that paradigm change? >> so i think that paradigm is starting to change. i just went through the numbers of the differentials between what's available on the private side verses the public side. but i think the big differential will be the duration mismatch you've seen with companies, particularly in technology. so as technology companies evolve in their business models and those durations start to match public investor expectations, that's when you see the ipo market really open up. >> you have to have in your mind, if you are a software

company, and either a gen a.i. type of play, where we just did an interview last week in san francisco with a portfolio company that really is taking advantage of the big play and investing in the data center? >> yeah, logic monitors at the epic center of generative a.i. it's really from a software perspective, kind of at the forefront of the generative a.i. innovation. i think that, look, software is the ultimate beneficiary of generative a.i., so you need to be able to articulate to investors what your plan is for embracing this technology, and then find data points. that is what's going to get the generative a.i. narrative interesting. we're still waiting to see a standard metric for this generative a.i. for software. once we start to see that, then it will be less of what your gen a.i. narrative and your proof points

and your attribute for this technology. >> and what is the one risk that would concern you into '25? is it growth not as robust as we once thought? is it interest rates remaining higher than we think? fewer cuts? i mean what is it in your world? >> i think what we're most focused on is sort of the euphoria that you spoke about earlier about the market getting ahead of itself expectation wise, as well as the ability of companies who articulate their business models and to provide data points for investors to understand how investable their software is. >> i thought all you had to say, we are in gen a.i. or data center. that's the extent that you have to tell people what you're about. you mean there's more to the story? >> i think so. i think so. you need to be able to show contribution, revenue enhancements, how's margin efficiencies? you're seeing companies report that now. this past quarter, you saw someone like a hub spot say 1% to 2% of revenues in '25 will be attributed to generative

a.i. >> we'll leave it there, ash. thanks. ashley macneill, joining us back at post nine. up next, real slx founder, kenny dichter announcing two sports titans. he'll join me right here at post nine next.

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that high-end consumers will want to take in those marquee sporting events in style. so much so that he's partnered with two betting power houses to truly up the anti on the experience of attending the big game. joining me now and a cnbc exclusive, real slx founder, kenny dichter. good to see you again. welcome to our show. >> super grateful to be here. thank you. >> so this is a sports and lifestyle club, right? >> sports lifestyle and entertainment club. a membership. >> what does the membership cost? >> it doesn't cost. if you engage with our platforms and, again, the best clients on their platforms are going to be able to work into our events. and we are looking forward to taking care of people. >> the high touch membership group where the same kinds of clients you had, whether it was with wheels up, which you're the founder of obviously and

prior to that, right? you're used to dealing with the high-end clientele and transporting them to these sporting events, so now you're trying to make it more of a high touch experience? >> and at the end of the day, we are curating. and the leader in the world as it relates to experience as they will relate to technology, and why we choose betmgm. and they will give us physicality in vegas and a lot of that stuff is physical. >> and how would you describe here forward and who you go after? >> and it was 500 to 1,000 people and businesses. and for real. it is 20 times that, you know, when you would think about that wealth distribution in our country. that the 21.95 million airs in the country. all of them are folks that we think we could provide some great services for and some incredible partnerships for

too. >> give me an idea of what we mentioned in that outset super bowl masters. what else are we talking about here? >> and what is real exciting. women's final four. so we had a choice, men's or women's. we would look at the ratings. they outrated the men last year. we're going down to tampa. we would have a commitment from rao's, our big partner there, to come down with us. we'll put in an amazing event on down in tampa for the final four. then you go to ryder cup, u.s. open tennis. you know, augusta week. and we're going to be there for all of them. >> and it's funny that you say that because you have us thinking. have you been? you've done a lot of private events. you've been at a premier women's event before, and if not. what have you witnessed about the evolution it in popularity that we've seen? and obviously enough so that you're going to the women's final four, but more broadly speaking, you've been to all the sporting events to begin with. there's a movement happening. >> by the way, dad of three girls. and you want to know about an event with a powerful woman?

then you think about women's sports and entertainment. the trend is your friend there, scott. i'll follow the value of the franchises, the women's franchises, they're rising along with the men's franchises that are all driven by their business, tv rights. >> and how would you assess because you have sort of boots on the ground view via the experience economy in general? how does that look to you right now? >> i'll give you my business model. dr. maya angelou, it's not what you do, it's not what you say, it's how you make people feel. and it is not the goods anymore. it's the experience, the social media posts. it's going out, doing things. this is a little bit of a reverb from the covid. everybody is inside. but bigger han that, i think people are valuing their life, the relationships they have, and there is no relationship like that capital, so we'll provide that. >> and because, i don't now, a

few years ago, the way we would look at retail related stocks or different sort of experience investing, it was all about that, right? people didn't want the tangible things so much. they wanted to have experiences after being kept in their houses for the duration or at least a fair amount of the pandemic. what you're suggesting to me is that in no danger of slowing down? >> and not only in no danger, but if you take sports, which is a big piece of what we're doing, and you take the economy and you cross those two, i think live sports is one of the only unifiers where we're live entertainment. people have a desire or an attempt, and to assemble. if you cross those two, i think there is not only a trend, but it's a macro trend. it had is 20, 30, 40, 50 years. >> how does your business make money then? if it's not a membership fee,

how does it all work? >> so we have relationships with our partners. for example, you and i have talked about the four seasons. we were recently tapped by the four seasons and the ritz carlton reserve brand. and their first private island, four seasons. and on the west coast of mexico. half an hour north. if we introduce or do events down in their places, there is capital to make. so that's really how we're going to work this. at the end of the day, i think people will appreciate if they want to use one of these, you know, platform partners that there is a way for them to get access to our platform. >> all right, good luck with the new business. marketer extraordinary, ladies and gentlemen, kenny dichter. it's good to see you. >> scott, it's good to see you. >> real slx is the name of that sports and lifestyle club. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into the close today. kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. kristina? >> thank you, scott. coming up, we'll take a look

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we're about 15 from the bell. back to kristina now for a look at the stocks that she is watching. tell us what you see. >> you're talking about it earlier, but it's the revival of animal spirits and possible crypto deregulation that drove morgan stanley to more than double their price tag with robinhood. they cite stronger post revenue growth and improved expectation of retail trading into next year. robinhood is 15% higher since just the election in early november. and a.i. is about to ramp up. they will see their ip licenses expand as cloud customers look for more power efficient chip blueprints. that's where they go to arm. arm's valuation may seem high right now, but they think the market wants more growth, and they see the stock hitting $160. shares trading at $138.84 right now. >> kristina partsinevelos, thank you. still ahead, what's driving the big move in hims & hers

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all right, we're now in the closing bell market zone. cnbc senior michael santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus, brian gomez on another big swing, higher today for hims & hers. courtney reagan on bath and body's latest quarter. and mike, what's on your mind today? pretty good broad market, moving all sectors, but two are green today? >> it is broad. and sort of an accelerated version of one of these rotations we've seen for a while. it's both out of large caps and into bonds. bonds for multiple reasons caught the bid, the best of

news. and obviously economic surprise coming off a little bit of the boil. month end, you have a reallocation trade as well as stocks outperformed by so much. at some point, you know my mantra that a broader market isn't always a safer one. sometimes it's more erratic. sometimes you have less trustworthy anchor, bell weathers leading the way. and you have things coming off the boil like tesla, netflix, and some of these things that just needed to have the fever break. they did, and the money is flowing elsewhere within, you know, 70% of the stocks that are up. so all to the good so far, you do wonder, just exactly how much head room there is on the indexes in the very near term. the way they traded right off the highs today. >> you look at the russell. >> yeah. >> it speaks pretty loudly of the broadening. by the way, i mean the russell is up 11% in a month. >> yes. >> i know there have been unbelievable calls for gains in that space for this year that didn't come fruition. i'm tom lee, right? and however, it shows you how

quickly that group of stocks can go up really, really quickly. >> that's for sure. so it was kind of this, kind of spring loaded affect. people thinking and thinking and wanting and wanting it to happen, and then it happens. the yields that came in for it. it looks now still like the meaner version. it looks like hey, we had a lot of, you know, money left on the table here in the short term. i'm wanting to see some, you know, this build towards something. i want to see the earnings estimate, things like that. but for now, it is really the market we're in, which is what hasn't participated to this point. let's buy a lot of it in a hurry. >> all right, hims & hers. gomez here with us to tell us more. 23% today? center yes, it's the name we're hearing more and more, right? and shares are surging another 20%. this stock has more than tripled in 2024, fueling today's rally though. well, the weekend, the president-elect donald trump announced his pick to lead the fda. and that is dr. marty makary.

he's the chief medical officer at sesame, the telehealth company that sells compounded semi glutides, similar to hims. now we've been talking about those drugs a lot. is there a shortage, isn't there a shortage? well, there is still a pending decision from the fda and supply. it's not clear if dr. makary will be confirmed or if the fda will take a positive view on glp-1 compounding. and i will note, wall street, more cautious though over half of analysts have a hold or sell rating on the stock. >> all right, appreciate that. brandon, thank you very much. courtney reagan, do you want to tell us first about bath & body works and a look ahead to the other retail names? >> and bath & body works on track for the best two years after beating expectations. people weren't expecting much. they reported the first report of the sales growth since the first quarter of 2021, the first above the guide in first quarters. that's particularly to note because of the holiday uarter, it's typically responsible for more than 40% of bath & body works annual sales. a little less than half of

their earnings for the year. but also first gross margin miss in two years. they say look, bath & body works, "sea sawed from investor love to fear." and it is not out of the woods yet. there is a lot to like about where it is going especially in the holiday. so generally retail stocks, surging, going into this last big day before retail earnings, which, of course, is just ahead of this critical five-day stretch from thanksgiving to cyber monday. so investors are going to be curious about the outlook for consumer electronics from best buy going into the holiday. how demand for apparel is trending at nordstrom, kohl's, urban outfitters. they all have different operations and internal workings, where they might be clothing sellers. dick's sporting goods has been on the winning streak. has that continued? there is a lot to learn tomorrow, and then it's off to the races for the unofficial start for the holiday. all those shares are trending higher here into these critical days this week. back over to you. >> all right. court, thank you. courtney reagan, you want to touch on the discretionary for a minute? and now i mean i know that they

look outsized because of tesla, obviously. it's 10% for the sector. but i mean most doubt about this space and every step along the way have been diminished after reasonably short period of time? >> yes. usually the actual spending numbers, supersede the fears that confidence is flagging. >> retail spending, sales numbers, monthly has been an outperformer. more times than not, i'll tell you that. >> yeah, there is no doubt about it. in a sense, we might have been overreacting to the suppressed confidence numbers for a while now that they have sprung higher. maybe we're going to overreact and it's going to be this gang busters spending season. but to me the bottom line is, even if you look equal weight, consumer discretionary, it's been very strong relative to defensive parts of the market. so it fits right into this idea that the market is really believing that we're in a strong part of the cycle or at least the cycle gets extended a little bit from here.

so the big cap market still does nothing to give you a lot of doubt that this is a decent trend. you don't want to stand in the way of the holiday week stuff. and they will get down below 15. so the market is only open two and a half for the next six days. that's one of the reasons why it's going to slow down. beyond that, you do have to be on the lookout for people's eyes getting a little big about 2025 and another 7,000 s&p 500 target today. pretty much everybody is 10% or higher from here in terms of their targets. so the ones that we have heard so far. and that can be a challenging hurdle to get over once we would get into the new year and you kind of, you know, engage with some typical, like your first pullback of january and see how we weather it. >> and see what yields do, right? today was a big down move, maybe, i don't know if you want to call it a sigh of relief in some respect, and maybe the bessent name, and the things that he's going to hold near and dear to what he wants to accomplish. >> the good news is it happens at a place and a level where it

should have, right? and that he actually has the bearish in the surveys towards the treasury. and you would have the ten-year yield right at the 200-day average. so you would have some buying in there that maybe has more to it than just the headline reaction. >> all right, good stuff. so we'll go across the board. we'll have a new record high for the dow jones industrial average. once again, a gain the dow jone average, 400 points. 44,732. we will have to settle that out. we will do that in "overtime." that is the end of regulation, closing bell at the new york stock exchange. a record-closing high for the dow, again. and likely for the rest of the 2,000. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action just getting started. welcome to closing bell

overtime. coming up loretta mester weighs in on