thanksgiving is very late this year. 2024. "squawk box" begins -- late as it can be -- "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ it is weak. >> still arguing about how late it is. it is a week less, i guess five days less. >> i guess it could be the 31st of november. >> there's no 31st of november. >> you could have. this is it, the latest it goes. >> couldn't it be 30? >> 30, 30 days have november. >> it is the latest week. >> that's what we decided on. >> it is a real tight scrunch, and getting ready, i'm getting ready for thanksgiving right now and getting ready for christmas at the same time. it is stressful. >> you do the whole deal? >> i have some help. >> you do? >> yeah. >> the butter ball, is it a

bullar ball? >> no. >> we get one that's sort of prepared, like from whole foods. >> i'm getting help because i have to work wednesday and friday, i have people coming to the house. >> i'm buying a turkey from bezos, glad to help. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are getting ready for the thanksgiving holiday this week. markets are pretty relaxed about things right now. the dow future up close to 20 points, s&p is up by 6 points and the nasdaq by 21. this comes after big games yesterday. the dow and s&p climbed to new records. the dow was up 1%. the s&p and the nasdaq gained .3 of 1%, just huge moves over the last couple of years. 440 points used to mean something, now just 1%. the russell 2000 closed at a

record high. yesterday we saw the u.s. treasury yields lower and today they're 429. the ten year is at 4.26. gold prices have fallen 3% in the last 48 hours. traders have been citing president-elect trump's choice of scott bessent as treasury secretary. also the reports of israel and hezbollah nearing a cease-fire deal, all of that happening as eroding the appeal of safe haven metal. in the meantime bitcoin pulling back from the high near $100,000. it is back at $92,296. andrew. thanks, becky. let's get to the big news of the morning, or at least the past 24 hours at least. president-elect trump now outlining his plan to raise tariffs on mexico and canada and china as well. megan costello joins us with more on the latest and where it is all headed.

>> hey, andrew. good morning. that's right. trump vowing last night to impose tariffs on all goods coming in from those countries, the three largest u.s. trading partners in response to what he called a surge of undocumented immigrants and flood of illicit drugs, especially fentanyl, crossing the u.s. border. in one post he said he would sign the documents necessary to impose tariffs on canada and mexico on his first day in office. in a send post he said china will face an additional 10% tariff because of drugs it is sending in through mexico. this is trump vowing to follow through he made on the campaign trail, threats that have been dismissed at times as bluster or negotiating tactic. trump and his team i can tell you based on reporting have been focused for months on ways to impose legal tariffs broadly and quickly. the most likely path forward is for him to declare economic emergency and he could be laying

the ground work for the legal argument he will make for why tariffs are needed and why the emergency status is needed. it definitely will be challenged in court and trump could back off if he gets something in exchange, we saw a lot of that in the first firm, but it is possible we see tariffs take effect in a it matter of months andrew. let's try to walk through industries that will be impacted. obviously a huge number of automakers who make autos in mexico. a lot of other companies own businesses in canada. there were notes last night i was looking at, bill ackerman who has been a big supporter of president trump owns the railroads there. what do you see as the economic impact of all of this, at least in the short term if, in fact, it is not a negotiating tool? even if it is a negotiating tool but takes months if not a year or longer to shift, if you will?

>> right. i think that's the first point to make, is even the threat of this brings some instability, brings some uncertainty and brings an economic impact. we are likely to see markets move on this a little bit. we are already seeing the canadian dollar and the mexican peso fall against the u.s. dollar this morning. china is saying nobody will win a trade war. we have to remember retaliation is almost certain to come and can come right away from any of those countries saying, you know, if you are going to hit us with tariffs we have ways to respond. it was something we saw hit u.s. agriculture and agriculture heavy states across the midwest in particular, but not restricted to that. as to major industries i pulled up some of the biggest markets between the two countries. from canada it is fuels and oils but cars as you mentioned, machinery, some plastic, pearls and wood. we can't forget about software. lumber going back and forth there. on the mexican side, again,

cars, electric equipment, furniture and beverages as well. it really spans the gamut and when you add in the retaliation it is something that can impact across the board. >> megan, we were talking this morning though, there's zero reaction from the futures this morning on this. there's zero reaction even after many of these major averages are sitting at new highs. you're right that this could be pretty impactful in terms of what you see. i was thinking last night like a place like home depot or lowe's, lumber costing in dealing with these things. >> he was elected on -- we knew about tariffs and immigration, and it rolls those together in fentanyl. it rolls the immigration issue -- >> look, people say, don't worry, it will be a negotiating tactic. this sounds like a negotiation tactic. what if it actually has an impact and works at the border on some of these issues? >> the usmca was in doubt. >> it was supposed to be

renegotiated. >> in 2026 anyway. it was $1 trillion worth of trade but he wants to redo it anyway. the market was up 400 yesterday and unchanged. >> that's the news, the shocking part, zero reaction. maybe part is we've spoken with ceo's including brian cornell of target who say they've been working on issues like this. they have teams that have been working on tariffs and dealing with ways in getting around some of these things and how they handle it. will it be a change to business? yes, because importers have to pay that tax as it comes in. that almost certainly will be passed on to the consumer, but the way it happened last time, this is -- jan iffen was talking about it, there were factories in china that absorbed the higher costs and it wasn't passed on to consumer because they were desperate to keep the

business. it is more complicated if you are talking tariffs everywhere, because you can't jump country to country and play them off each other. maybe it is impossible to completely stop the flow of fentanyl and different things, but if you are going not only after the north and south borders where it is coming across and going after china to say, if you don't stop it and do something about it, we'll see. it sounds like absolutely a negotiation, not just flat-on tariffs against everybody because they exist. this is a negotiation. >> that's right. i think trump's best asset or one of them here is that he is so serious about this that other countries will take the threat seriously. he and bob lighthizer have written and spoken extensively about this, that no one gives up something for nothing. you have to have something on the table. trump is willing to impose the tariffs, we saw it with steel and aluminum in the first term, but he is willing to back off when he gets something in exchange. there was one week in june 2019

where trump got really angry at mexico for immigration and started vowing to impose an economic emergency to put blanket tariffs on everything. >> i remember. >> obviously those tariffs never went into effect. that must be why we are not seeing more reaction from markets. one, they feel they're more prepared, they know what might be coming. but, two, because they're in a wait-and-see mode. i thought the language trump used here was interesting, he said he would sign the documents necessary to impose the tariffs on day one, meaning he would sign but not that they would take effect on day one. there could be gray area, but still a long way to go here. >> megan, i would ask what is plausible between wakanda can do, what mexico can do as it relates to the immigration crisis in the united states, or i should say the illegal immigration crisis in the united states, meaning what steps would they actually have to take, how quickly could they take them, how much would it cost the governments to actually do what they would need to do to satisfy

effectively preventing these tariffs from coming on? >> one thing i think we don't know is just how much exactly trump wants to see. this is getting at your question, from those countries in order to back off tariffs. we know as i mentioned with mexico, mexico agreed to ramp up some immigration enforcement and the tariffs never took effect. could they make the same promise and avoid tariffs five years later? trump might say, you made this promise five years ago, i need to see more. then it is more border enforcement, more of a crackdown, we don't know exactly what it is. same with china. in january 2020 china made a bunch of promises that paused things where they were, prevented a further's congratulations of the trade war at that point. again, four years later now and most of the analysis i see is that china has not held up its end of the bargain, hasn't started increasing agricultural purchases, at least enough to stick with the guidelines of the

deal. it might be buying more ue u.s. goods, reducing tariffs on their end, cracking down on the border enforcement too. there's a lot of gray area. we haven't seen specifics from trump, maybe because we're waiting to see his full trade team to see what would avoid those tariffs. >> megan cassella, appreciate it. i'm sure we will talk more about this. >> they need to build a wall and pay for it, mexico. better late than never maybe. breaking in the last hour, the biden administration finalized a $7.9 billion award to intel. they said it would support the fabrication and packaging of leading-edge chips through projects in arizona, new mexico, ohio and oregon. the money will be disbursed as intel meets project milestones. -- a problem. officials have been working to get deals across the finish

line before the trump administration takes over in january. in the meantime, the biden administration announcing plans to lend $6 billion to help rivian build an electric car factory in georgia. phil lebeau joins us with more on the story. hey, phil. >> reporter: hey, becky. it is one of the loans that the biden administration, when you look at future alternative source vehicles, this is one of those loans that they were looking at finalizing and they have. rivian securing a $6.6 billion loan from the department of energy. $6 billion will al located to the funding of a new plant to be built in georgia. it has been announced. in mei they said they would hold off on building it because of issues when it comes to liquidity. that georgia plant scheduled to begin production in 2028. rivian says up to 7,500 jobs by 2030. this is where they planned to build the r2, r3 models.

think of these as the next generation of new vehicles. we saw it first time when they unveiled the r2, a small suv. they will build this first in central illinois and then move production to georgia. that, by the way, is expected to go on sale in 2026 with a base price estimated to be at this point they say $45,000. we will see what it actually is when the vehicle comes to market. take a look at shares of rivian. remember, they just secured more than $5 billion as part of a joint venture with volkswagen, $5.8 billion all together. they now have the liquidity that was in question by a number of people just a few months ago. they now have the liquidity to make it through to r2 production at the georgia plant -- or first r2 production and then opening the georgia plant in 2028. so this loan is a huge deal for rivian. >> phil, if it goes through i guess because it is a loan it

wouldn'ten cancelled. it is not like intel where it is paid out money when certain milestones are met. it is a lifeline that would be there to last. >> correct. and we've talked about this on air, not just with the auto industry or, you know, solar, whatever it might be. there are a number of the programs within the department of energy, they're trying to finalize these loans where possible. >> wow. some last-minute maneuvering for sure. hey, you're not at o'hare today, huh? >> i am not. >> tomorrow? >> did you want me to be at o'hare today? >> no, we were just talking -- >> that's the same answer he gave us yesterday. >> are you planning to be there tomorrow? >> tomorrow. >> or friday? >> i haven't decided yet. i'll think about it. >> keeping us hanging here, phil. >> yeah. >> if you have gone other days -- >> you need that traditional live shot of people walking in the airport, that is your fix before thanksgiving. >> if you have ever gone, you

have to go tomorrow. >> we want it because it makes us so happy we're not there. it is one of those things. it is a crazy travel day. all you can think of is planes, trains and automobiles when you start seeing that stuff. if you are home or near home you think, oh, goodness, thank you for that. >> can you sign me up for clear or whatever that is? can you do that for somebody else? >> no. >> no? >> no. >> i cannot do that, joe. >> i do not like hanging out at airports. i can't imagine going there to do that. >> the idea is going early when you have to go anyway. get there an hour early. >> that's bad enough unless andrew gets me in the delta line. >> joe, there's a place in new york city, we will get you an appointment and you can do it there. >> that's a good idea. >> where in new york? >> downtown. >> secret. >> you need an ice pick in the eye. >> i know you don't want -- >> i don't want to get pushed on

a subway track. thanks. maybe some other time. >> phil, thank you. you are keeping us guessing where you will be tomorrow. tune in to find out where phil lebeau is tomorrow. coming up, a handful of retail names set to report later this morning. then kevin mccarthy will join us to talk about president-elect pridt's tariff plans, the esens cabinet picks and maybe a victory lap about matt gaetz. "squawk box" will be right back. this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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all right. welcome back, everybody. kohl's ceo tom kingsbu is stepping down on january 15th. he served as interim ceo starting in late 2022 and was named the permanent ceo in early 2023. permanent until at least now. that stock is down about 45% since he took the interim role and you can see the latest move, down another 2.6%. he will be replaced by ashley buchanan, currently the ceo of michael's. prior to taking the top job at michael's he was the chief merchandising officer and coo for walmart, for the u.s. e-commerce division. he is currently on the board of macy's but he will be stepping down from that role. buchanan will be the third ceo since 2018. kohl's is set to report in the

next hour. ahead of that the stock is down 2.6%. in addition to that on the "squawk planner" more retail planning. we will hear from best buy, abercrombie and fitch in the next 90 minutes or so. s&p case-shiller home price index is due at 9:00 a.m. eastern. plan your day around that. joining us now on the markets, megan parterman. chief investment officer, she has put me in a bad mood today. megan, that's quite a fact, quite a fact that not a single russell 1000, 2,500 or 2,000, not a single market cap of any stock do you have an earnings yield above the five-year treasury yield, and that's when you like to buy -- that's

usually when you like to buy stocks, right? so even if there's a problem with what we're assuming about earnings going up 15% or with interest rates coming down, because if things stay just the way it is 24 times earnings, the houston we have a problem next year, right? >> yes. absolutely. it is a concern that we have for the market because it has spread now beyond that, you know, tech and russell 1000 growth we have seen. but looking at the indices themselves, not one of them has an earnings yield that is above the five-year treasury. >> okay. >> it is telling you that bonds look cheap compared to equities, but we think this is just more of this euphoria that's driven all of the u.s. market caps higher this year after the election. >> yeah, that didn't sound right. that's what it says. so you are talking indices themselves.

so you are a long-term investor, you have to be obviously. would you not commit any new funds to the s&p 500 right now at 24 times next year's earnings? >> no, not right now. that's just too stretched in our opinion given the fact that the economy is going to slow. there's a lot of uncertainty, especially with the news that came out this morning with the trump tariffs next year. the consumer continues to be very stretched and we think that earnings growth is way too optimistic for next year. 15% earnings growth year over year in an environment where the economy is expected to slow from this year's pace? that's way too optimistic. we think some of the euphoria has carried on after the election. we think going into next year it will be a bumpier road and we want to go in having dry powder, looking to rebalance the portfolios where we need to and have money sitting on the sidelines to put to work. >> we hear the consumer is fine,

but you point out credit card debt record high, credit card rates are high. i saw about car loans. many, many car loans are under water and the car is worth a lot less than what is left to pay on the loans. do you see other signs of stress in the consumer area? >> confidence has been very i guess mixed. we've had maybe a good month of confidence and then a couple of bad months of confidence, but, you know, we keep hearing the consumer is fine, but are they really fine? because we also are hearing they're changing the way they spend money. they're being more cautious on how they spend money. that doesn't necessarily tell me the consumer is really that strong. we think that next year will be a time when the consumer's just really tapped out and there's so much uncertainty, especially around the taxes at the end of next year that we think the consumer will be -- what's really one of the biggest risks for the economy. >> i haven't heard anyone say stagflation, and we've kind of put that to bed and anyone who

was predicting it. people are looking back and saying you were dead wrong. but the ten year is 4.28 today. do you think maybe there's slowing in the economy, right? and inflation is going to stay stubbornly high. it is not stagflation but both of those metrics are headed in the wrong direction for what is really good for the stock market. >> that's right. and i think it is a little early to use that word, but it is, both of these things are -- you know, inflation is sticky in many areas of the economy. we will get the fed minutes today. let's see if they have any more information about that inflation, because they did slightly alter their statement at the last meeting. and then with growth slowing -- now, we're not saying it is going negative at this time but growth is slowing, so the fed has got to make some comments about inflation. they've got to change the rhetoric around the interest rates for next year. >> if i were the president-lect

i would be somewhat concerned, plus, you know, depending on how you date when a president, you know, comes in. last time trump came in between november and january when he was actually inaugurated the market went crazy, but when people look back and grade how the stock market, they don't start until january 21st so he's not getting any of this and maybe it is -- >> he will. >> they don't do it that way. >> no, but we take a look at it -- >> it is 24 times earnings, and i wouldn't want to be taking over at -- >> you have a point. >> that is a difficult -- i would rather be obama than take over after the s&p was down 50%, wouldn't that be better? >> definitely when you go back in history and look at the returns just by president, it does seem better, you know, being an obama situation. that's why we use history as a guide because elections happen every four years, and typically when you look at a recession

that tends to happen every four to five years as well. there's plenty of presidents that can come in and benefit -- >> the fed has cured recessions, we were talking about that yesterday, with qe and everything else, everything will be great. megan, thank you. >> you're welcome. thanks. >> see you later. coming up, walmart is the latest company to roll back the latest dei initiatives. we will talk about that story next. and then later, reaction to president-elect trump's proposal. mick mulvaney will be joing to talk about that, doge, and so much more as "squawk box" rolls on. i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar.

i've got another one.

welcome back to "squawk box." an interesting story to tell you about this morning. walmart now saying it is ending some of its diversity initiatives. it is removing some lgbt-related merchandise from its website and winding down a not-for-profit that funded programs for minorities. the company moving away from using the term, quote, diversity, equity and inclusion in company documents as well. it also renamed the chief diversity officer role to chief belonging officer. walmart joins a growing list of companies that rolled back dei measures, this after feeling the heat from conservative activists. other companies that have gone this route, tractor supply, ford, lowe's and coors. the activist behind it is robbie starbucks who spearheaded dei campaigns against consumer-facing countries. he said he warned walmart last

week he would be doing a story on wokeness at walmart. walmart said it is making the changes and they've been in the works for a few years and not the result, they say, of the conversation with starbuck. i don't know. >> that's him, andrew? i love the man bun. >> what did you say? >> that's the man behind you? i love the man bun. >> watching the video. >> love the man bun. that's the dude, huh? so he's the anti-dei. >> with the man bun. >> kind of cool. >> andrew, you thinking about it? >> am i thinking about the man bun or am i thinking about the dei policies? >> the man bun. i'm not going to get all serious on you. we're not going to discuss dei and whether it is -- obviously we would like everything to be dei but i understand -- >> if you look at the comments that come from doug mcmillan on this, the ceo at walmart, just saying that they want to

change -- they basically want to be a reflection of america and what america is really looking for with some of these things. there's been a big push back against it. they just said, no retail company wants a story about them ahead -- from us ahead of black friday. this is what starbuck is saying on those things. >> and man bun, tea with man bun should be included as well. i don't think they should be -- i don't think you should do anything against -- right? they should not be discriminated -- >> trying to imagine you in a man bun. >> me? i had a mullet. >> you did? >> obviously, in the '70s. didn't have -- not the fish. >> party in the back. >> yeah. a mullet is the same -- >> business up front, party in the back. >> andrew, i think you would look -- i can't do it now. >> man bun? >> think about it. >> i don't know if i could pull it off. >> you know what else is cool

but i've seen people in the gym, the warrior. it is really cool. you grow it long and then you have like one ponytail down but the rest is down. you kind of look like -- who is that one guy that -- >> i just want to have -- what did mr. t have? >> he had a mohawk. >> like a mohawk. >> a mohawk. >> fool! >> trying to think of the guy you're thinking of. what's the guy. >> hegseth -- no, chris hemsworth. i got hegseth -- one of the hemsworths, in one of their -- >> probably thor somewhere along the way. >> thor, that's the warrior. >> chris hemsworth. >> yeah. when we come back the fed's neil kashkari said a rate cut is

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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures this morning relatively flat but you're still looking at green arrows even after big gains yesterday. there was a gain of 440 points yesterday, which sounds like a lot, but given the huge move we've seen in the indexes it is only 1%. s&p futures up by about seven after a gain yesterday, too. the nasdaq up by about 27. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari saying it is appropriate to consider a rate cut in december. he said that it is suggested that the neutral rate may be higher now. the latest inflation update comes tomorrow.

that's when we will get the core pce dataset to be released at 10:00 a.m. on holiday adjusted schedule. that's the important measure that the fed looks at for all of these issues. we've gone from thinking that things are baked in to having to consider whether the fed will pause or even eventually raise rates again, andrew. >> really? >> yeah, that's kind of the market. >> that's the question. >> everybody is trying to figure this stuff out. look, it is because we don't know. there's so much uncertainty around the new policies with the new administration coming in, the fed may pause and look around for a little bit. >> right, and the only reason -- >> we'll talk a lot more about that actually in a moment. we will get reaction to president-elect trump's tariff plan and maybe if you think inflation comes from it from his former acting chief of staff mick mulvaney. plus a cost-cutting proposal from a republican senator to the doge team. we will talk about all of it right after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." republican senator joni ernst sending a letter to elon musk and vivek ramaswamy yesterday. in the letter it outlined potential cost cuts that could eliminate more than a trillion in federal spending. among her proposals on the list she says consolidate federal office space and auctioning off unneeded properties. auditing the irs. slashing biden administration infrastructure initiatives and making changes to u.s. coins. now, she noted that it cost three cents to produce a penny and more than 11 cents to produce a nickel. so we're going to get into all of this because meantime investors seem to approve quite strongly i think of president-elect trump's treasury pick, scott bessent. some people calling it the bessent balance. joining us to talk about all of this and so much more former trump administration acting white house chief of staff who also served as the director of the omb, mick mulvaney is here.

he is the co-chair of the active strategic advisors group. good morning to you. we can talk about scott bessent in a moment, but i would love to talk about, since you know where the bodies are buried, you know where the money is or is not. is a trillion dollars on the table? is that a possibility? would you get rid of the penny and the nickel? would you start auctioning and selling off real estate that is owned by the u.s. government to make these numbers work? >> yes to all of the above except for the trillion dollars. i guess it depends on how you measure. is it a trillion dollars a year? there's no chance. is it a trillion dollars over the budget window? keep in mind, any time you talk about spending in washington you have to realize the language is different. when someone says a program costs $500 billion, that's usually over a ten-year window so it is unclear where the trillion dollars is coming from. listen, yes, get rid of the penny, yes, get rid of the nickel, but literally that's pennies and nickels when it

comes to the amount of money that the federal government spends. these are good ideas but until you deal with the major drivers of the deficit which is the discretionary budget, the mandatory spending programs, you will not get any real change here. >> that's the big question though. so let's talk about some of that. we also maybe add to it the defense budget. could you go from $800 billion to $700 billion and make it work given they've not completed an audit successfully in a very long time? is there a large amount of waste there? i don't know. >> you should know because there is a remarkable amount of waste, but the question is can you go from $800 to $700 and the answer is know. we were not able to get the rate of growth in the defense department to slow. that's considered a cut in washington, d.c. if you spend $100 last year and you only spend $103 this year, they call it a cut because they

expect to spend $105. so this is great. i love it. look, i'm so excited about it, i can't tell you. i wish that we had this sort of energy in 2017, but congress was one of our major impediments. when i had my 2017 budget before the president, i had a high-ranking republican senator tell him, mr. president, no one has lost their job for spending too much money, they have lost their job for not spending enough. i hope the attitude in congress has changed and clearly trump is committed to this and i think that's fantastic, but unless everybody in washington, d.c. is interested in spending less it will be very, very difficult to do. >> what do you make of this tariff proposal we are just seeing in the last 24 hours, the idea of implementing 25% tariffs against mexico and canada as well, 10% more to china to try to stop fentanyl, try to stop illegal immigration. do you see that as a negotiating tactic -- i imagine it is a negotiating tactic, but do you see it as a successful

negotiating tactic? do you think it will be implemented? >> look, it has been in the past. we used the threat against china to get them to buy more soybeans in 2018. when it comes to mexico, canada and europe, the tariffs are mostly looking at a way to get leverage. donald trump is the best i have seen at creating leverage where none exists. that doesn't mean they won't go in, but the motivation is to get leverage. on china it is a little different. it is more to drive our policy to sort of compete with them, so i think you have to take it a case-by-case circumstance, country to country, good by good. yeah, donald trump is going to use tariffs. it is one of the tools available to any president of the united states to try to get their policies enacted or at least assisted by other countries. so i fully expect this to be front and center of the trump playbook for the next four years. >> speaking of the defense department, mick, and, you know, who knows what happens with a

lot of these nominees. i don't know what you think of pete hegseth. earlier we were quoting senator ernst, joni ernst would be the best secretary of defense probably ever and she has expressed an interest in that. she knows all about -- you know, she served on the armed services committee. do you think hegseth makes it, and when you look at her -- okay. go ahead. you are making weird looking faces. i'm not sure what you think. >> yeah, in order to get to ernst you have to deal with hegseth and i do see him making. >> you do? >> i sort of get the feeling, joe, if the guy wasn't on television for the last several years and had been sitting at a think tank i don't think there would be a lot of complaints about him. he has a degree from princeton, from harvard. >> i know he has the degree but he doesn't have the experience in -- maybe you're right, he hasn't been a bureaucrat, which maybe that's a good thing. >> yeah. you know, not a lot of folks have experience running an

agency with a couple million people, at least i think it is close to a million folks. it is a big organization, there's no question about it. joni would be great, don't get me wrong, but i don't see trump pulling support of hegseth unless something comes out we don't expect about him. i expect one of the nominees to go down. i think gaetz was an aberration, not the sack rificial lamb. i get the sense it will be kennedy because it will be such a hearing i don't know how long the trump team will stay with him. hegseth fits the model you see coming out route ight now. it is a two-headed operation, you will have someone in the white house dedicated to policy and someone at the agency dedicated to selling the policy. there's a reason he hired sean duffy because he is good on tv. kristi noem is good on tv.

hegseth is good on tv. one of trump's biggest complaints is there were not enough people on tv selling his agenda. you are seeing a new policy coming out with someone outside of the agency to sell it and hegseth fits that model well. >> you have to be good on tv. andrew, i guess we don't have to keep checking our phone. i don't think it is going to happen for us. >> i have to ask mick before we go what he makes of the boris epstein story and the fact that president trump seems to be standing by boris epstein? for those not following the story, apparently he had been seeking money from and consulting fees and the like from a number of folks who were trying to get posted in the cabinet effectively, even at one point sought a consulting fee from scott bessent who is now the treasury secretary. he did not take him up on that at the time, but obviously it has raised some eyebrows around

washington. >> it raises my eyebrows because, look, trump says he hates this. i get this. he hates people making money off his relationships with them. i understand. if he fires boris epstein a lot of people will be fired after that because a lot of people in trump world make good money on the side selling access to him. it will be interesting to see if he follows through on it. gss imyues there will be a lot of complaints but little change. >> mick mulvaney, happy thanksgiving. thank you for joining us. we are coming back after this spot. this segment of cnbc sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

when we come back, food prices dipping on word of a potential cease-fire in the middle east. we will dig into that story next. check it out, wti just below 0 $7a barrel, $69.60. we will be right back. this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time.

experience the art of high pressure gold. brewed coffee and espresso with the l'or barista system. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. for a satisfying moment unlike any other. welcome back, everybody. oil prices are down after speculation of a cease-fire in the middle east. you can see this morning wti down or actually up this morning. it was down a couple percent yesterday but just below $70 a barrel. joining us to talk about is don

striven, goldman sachs cohead of global commodities research. don, this idea of a potential cease-fire in the middle east is a big deal. you've got that on top of the trump administration, the incoming trump administration saying that they're going to be looking for situation to produce more oil and natural gas in this country. i'm actually surprised we're not seeing a bigger drop across the commodities board >> so i do think that geopolitical risk premium price into oil prices was fairly modest as of late last week and i think the market is very much focused on political risks with actual clear paths to lower production, less production, because a lot of geopolitical risk has not realized since basically 2022, starting with russia. in fact we do think oil prices are a touch too low, maybe $4 a barrel or so. >> why is that? what do you see around the world that makes you think that?

a slowdown in the economy potentially? >> it's based on the observation that this year, global has edged down. we think the market has been in deficit worth about 0.5% of global markets. even if prices are on track, they have trended down positioning to the bottom 5% of history. so i do think many oil investors are pricing in with a great degree of confidence a large surplus for 2025. we think a large surplus is not a done deal and actually we do see significant upside risk to prices in the short term, potentially coming from lower production. >> so you can have an administration coming in saying that they want to cut the red tape, they want to make it easier for permitting and places to drill and open up drilling places they haven't seen before. if you talk to the big majors, i don't know that they are eager to spend more money on production when you're already facing prices that are probably below what they had happened

this year. >> yes. production shorts very much been down by prices and shareholder discipline. that said, the 3 million barrels per day of energy and oil equivalent production that new treasury nominee scott bessent has put out there, we think it's actually achievable because, you know, we do think that natural gas production should be included which is going to rise significantly with the rise in lng demand for u.s. natural gas. natural gas -- >> lng that we export? >> yes. yes. so we think that goal is on track. but it's mostly a result of, you know, technologies and lng export, plans that are happening regardless of d.c. policies. we do think that over the long run, regulatory easing could provide upside to oil and gas production. in the short term it's continue down by prices and goals. >> what about opec and the

potential role they play in this. saudi arabia would like to see prices higher than this too. if they kick in and say we are not going to production as much, what are the odds and impact on the market if they do? >> i think what we have seen from opec over the last few months is whenever prices sort of drop to the low 70s, in brent terms, a touch below current price levels, they tend to extend productions. defending 70 as a floor on the brand. however over the summer when brand was around 80 or low 80s they were saying to the market we're happy to bring barrels back to the market. this supports our view in a base case both should be range bound with 70 sort of the floor and 85 to 80 as the ceiling. >> what's so different than when we were talking about oil prices spiking above $100 and beyond. >> what's changed? is it the technology that we have for these things? is it our ability to find and get some of the oil and gas out of the ground? is it the global dynamics?

what's changed? >> it's really the success of u.s. shale. if you look at production growth in the world for oil over the last decade, 100% of the growth has come from u.s. shale. >> wow. >> and with ongoing -- the u.s. companies can make efficiency gains and are putting downward pressure on the long data part of the oil futures curve. as a result, opec has, you know, has been incentivized to cut production to keep the market balanced. >> thanks for coming in today. >> thank you. >> it is now just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick. bunch of big stories this morning. perhaps the biggest, president-elect trump wants an additional 10% tariff on china and 25% tariff on canada and mexico. going to bring you more on the potential impact of those tariffs throughout the show and how he might be trying to use those as a negotiating tactic.

meantime neel kashkari saying he's open to cutting interest rates again in december in an interview with bloomberg kashkari says it's reasonable to consider a 25-point cut when the central bank meets next month. and starbucks saying a ransomware attack on one of its software vendors interrupt the how the baristas view and manage their schedules. store leaders and baristas are working around the outage manually for the most part and that the interruption has not affected customers' directly. a quick look at the futures on this tuesday morning ahead of thanksgiving before we get over to dom chu. you're looking at green on the screen. 75 points. dom, taking a look at this morning's premarket movers. what's on tap? >> good morning. let's kick things off this hour with news out of the biden administration affecting shares of rivian up about 3.25% after the company announced that it had received conditional approval for a $6.6 billion loan from the department of energy.

that money will go towards building an electric vehicle production in the state of georgia. rivian said it expects to begin operations at that factory in 2028 and employ 7500 people by the end of 2030. rivian getting a boost on that news. also intel shares higher just about maybe 1.3% after securing a $7.9 billion loan funding under the chips act. the commerce department said the grants will support the company's manufacturing, expansion and packaging projects in arizona also new mexico, ohio and oregon. the biden administration has been working towards finalizing deals ahead of president-elect donald trump's auguration driving shares higher. key analyst note regarding goldman sachs and morgan stanley. both stocks are fractionally lower due to hsbc downgrades from a hold rating to a buy. the firm said after the big bank rallies analysts see less attractive risk-reward profiles

and investors to be wary of a super cycle are going to drive the shares higher. keep an eye on those investment banks because the hsbc downgrade. for more on that call and other key calls of the day head to cnbc.com/pro. subscribers get full access to the detail and analysis behind the calls. i'll send things back over to you. >> i will say thank you and we'll see you in a little bit and then i will say joseph, what's coming up? >> coming up, president-elect trump's pick for national security adviser going to be on with us. mike waltz. congressman waltz will join us. later, chef and restauranteur litds ya bast tee yan niche. >> love her. >> i have some of her stuff. spaghetti sauce. talks food prices her latest pbs special and tips for your turkey dinner. "squawk box" will be right back.

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a weight loss plateau, so there is a possibility that people might continue to lose weight as they take this drug longer. this is also part one of a two-part trial, so part two, people will be taking this for another year and again, it's possible that we might see more weight loss, but at this point, it could be seen as a disappointment. they're also saying about 11% of people discontinued from the trial because of any adverse event and like other drugs in this class, gi issues, nausea, diarrhea, playing a big factor in this. no association between bone, mineral density. an issue that has come up recently. a lot to digest here. again, amgen has already said they are moving this into phase three and a call coming up in the next hour and we will be tuning in to that to see what they have to say about these results. beckedy? >> you were right to point out there could be disappointment on the street. the stock off by more than 12%.

they're moving into phase three, you pointed out, a few potential positive outlooks but the knee-jerk reaction on the street is disappointment. >> because this is a monthly injection they're saying it could be monthly or less frequently which would differentate it between zepbound and wegovy. if you want to succeed and compete against these two behemoths you have to show something competitive and there is some concern maybe this is not competitive. you don't have as much weight loss. why would people go and take this different injection if they have something else already on the market? >> the one thing that you could do is price it more cheaply, but then the biden administration i was hearing today moving to make it so that the government pays for the -- the federal government would be on the hook for paying for any of these and so if that's the case then you have probably less price sensitivity. >> exactly. and we're going to see wegovy, that price will probably come

down as medicare does start to negotiate the price of that drug. pricing will play a factor. again, the thing that is interesting here is the dosing and people were looking to see maybe less frequent dosing because amgen has talked about at least monthly, maybe even less. some analysts i spoke to say they would like to see quarterly. at this point that's not what we're seeing. amgen is looking at that in part two of the trial. quarterly, other differing options for dosing once you lose the bulk of the weight. at this point i think overall, people wanted to see a little bit more here because hopes were so high for this drug and right now people are digesting to see exactly what the future here holds for amgen. >> okay. angelica, thank you. >> thank you. >> meantime the dow hitting another record close yesterday. joining us is emily rollin, co-chief investment strategist at john hancock. does the train ride continue? does it pull back? what's going to happen here,

emily? >> if you're looking to get tactical into year end momentum can be a powerful force. we have to remember markets have muscle memory. we have a playbook for this. you look back at 2016, 2017, and post-election you saw a massive rally in areas like regional banks that could potentially be beneficiaries of deregulation. small cap equities which would benefit from pro-cyclical policies. we looked back at the post election in 2016 and regional banks were up 26%. we're at 19% right now. small cap equities were up about 15%. we're at 10. so we could be in sort of this sixth or seventh i think of in trade playing out. we think into 2025, investors refocus on the fundamentals, but for now, momentum can be a powerful force. >> so what i'm trying to understand is you think momentum is a powerful force through the end of '25, but --

>> '24. >> end of '25 here? >> we're looking into '25. if you look back at the 2016 playbook, you saw the bulk of the returns in these riskier areas of the market happen into the early part of 17 and those trades moved and chopped sideways from there. you could have a few innings left for these plays to work out. >> if you think the chop is on the other side, is there any argument to say to take your winnings now? >> i think there could be depending on how tactical you want to be. you look at, for example, small cap earnings, they are down 7% this quarter versus large cap earnings which are up 6%. so what you've seen is these moves have been made sbarly on multiple expansion. you're also seeing this almost speculative frenzy playing out across lower quality stocks,

crypto and crypto related assets. it's remarkable to see what's happening here from a sentiment standpoint. so we would suggest trimming into those riskiest parts of the market as we head into next year and refocusing on quality, quality at a reasonable price, places where we're actually seeing the earnings momentum. we have to remember that over time, stock prices follow profits an i think a lot of investors are maybe ignoring the textbooks right now and focused on where the most speculative action is. >> emily, you minced crypto. we long talked about crypto and the nasdaq being tied. i don't know if it's tied in the same way. i don't know if you think that crypto -- which is the dog and which is the tail in this case? >> yeah. typically those two things move together. we've actually seen crypto related assets break away in terms of that performance profile. so again, just remarkable moves. every morning you wake up and crypto is at a new all-time high. it's actually helping mid cap growth stocks be among the best

performers across the broad u.s. market right now. again, we would fade that. although we're continuing to emphasize the u.s. assets broadly. the dollar up 7% this quarter. economic growth. better on a relative basis in the united states right now. the services side is booming. the consumer is doing well. so we would continue to emphasize u.s. assets in a broader global portfolio. we would just think about sort of pruning risk at the margin. we don't want to be going over our skis and taking risk as we head into next year. >> emily, we're going to wish you a happy thanksgiving. thank you for joining us. same to you. >> joe? >> coming up, the president-elect's pick for national security adviser, congressman mike waltz is going to join us to talk about the possibility ukrainian war, cease-fire in the middle east and foreign related issues. that's straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. time for today's aflac trivia question. according to the usda, how many

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turkeys are eaten on thanksgiving? the answer 46 million. that's about three pounds of turkey per person. all right. so second trump administration is just around the corner and investors are going to be on the lookout for the potential of foreign policy shifts. joining us is the president-elect's peck for national security adviser, congressman mike waltz of florida. congressman waltz, thank you very much for being here today. you're in a position that is not subject to confirmation from the senate. obviously, you're ready to hit the ground running on some of these issues. i thought maybe we could talk to you about what you see happening around the globe happening right now. the talk this morning is really focused on what potentially could happen in the middle east. cease-fire talks there. i just wonder how involved you've been with this, what you think of what you've seen? >> well, we're in communication with president biden's team with

his national security adviser jake sullivan and one of the lead negotiators. this is a cease-fire if it comes to fruition, that i think all sides are going to be able to get behind. israel, as you know, has made an incursion into southern lebanon to preemptively take down hezbollah's rocket, tunnels, and other assets that were poised to attack and that were also hitting israel on daily basis. i'll remind everyone, that israel has nearly 100,000 of its people that can't go home, that are internal refugees, because their homes were being fired on. we remember this sad and, frankly, just heartbreaking instance of over a dozen israeli kids randomly killed while playing soccer. so to resolve that i think would be a step in the right

direction. it will further isolate hamas and we are all hopeful we can drive some type of resolution to get our hostages home by inauguration day. those hostages will have been held longer than the iranians held americans hostage in 1979. so it's time to drive this home. what we're calling the president trump effect suddenly everybody is ready to deal. we're seeing that across-the-board and around the world. >> let me ask just how closely you're working with the braigs with your counterpart jake sullivan? there's this idea that you're incoming administration sees the world differently than the biden administration. the awkward time between election day and inauguration day, and there is definitely the feeling that the biden administration is maybe making changes and pushes in other areas like making -- allowing ukraine to use some missiles

they hadn't allowed them to use to strike into russia in the past. is that stuff that has been done with talking to you all? do you think these are counter to the views that the trump administration, incoming administration, will have? how do you see this playing out? >> well, in that particular instance, we have not spoken yet, so we were not informed of that decision, but we have since. look, my message to the world and i think mr. sullivan would certainly agree, is if you think -- to our adversaries if you think this is a moment of opportunity you can play one administration off against each other, we don't agree on every issue to be certain, but we are in communication. you cannot use this as a moment of opportunity if you think you're going to. and we need to send that message as fellow americans loud and clear. >> congressman, i didn't realize that. it's been longer than the

hostages from -- that was so long ago -- but that would be very strange if they were released on inauguration day because that's when the iranian hostages were released. i remember when president reagan was inaugurated that day is when they were released. >> that's right. we just want them released period. hamas is -- >> history would theoretically repeat itself. let me just ask you about the overall backing of israel by the united states -- the biden administration. you hear both that it's been -- it's been good and israel is grateful. then again i've seen editorials written, you know, whenever the biden administration will respond to some moves by israel, a lot of times they were scolding israel rather than hamas or rather than the other side, and i don't know whether weapons were withheld. there were certainly threats that weapons would be withheld.

do you think that it's been unequivocal enough the biden administration with its support for israel at this point, congressman? will that change? >> well, look, i think the change you're going to see is more focused on iran. i don't believe that you restore stability. i don't believe that you solve gaza and i think this is shared across many in the administration with the president. necessarily there, you see that with dealing with tehran, tehran is the world's largest backer of terrorism. they are going to help hezbollah, hamas, the houthis rebuild if they can. as long as they are flush with cash, the middle east is never going to have peace. iran doesn't want the middle east to be in peace. they don't want a two-state solution. neither does hamas for that matter. so there will be a shift. the president has been very clear about that. he was very clear in his first term in exerting maximum

pressure on iran until they're ready to come to the table from a very different perspective than they did with the iran deal. >> so how does that work when it comes to ukraine and russia? if the biden administration is allowing them, maybe trying to push as much of the funding they had promised to ukraine before inauguration day, if they're allowing them to use missiles going too russia in ways they haven't before, how would your policy differ from what you're seeing happen on the ground there? >> well, i'll address that. i want to mick one more point on iran. china buys 90% of iran's illicit oil. just roughly 2017, 2018, they were exporting 4 million barrels per day by the end of trump's first administration, it was down to around 300,000, 400,000. i think we will have conversations about china with those purchases, but again,

going back to that full maximum pressure, not only will -- help stability in the middle east but help stability in the russia-ukraine theater as well as eastern provides ballistic missiles and literally thousands and thousands much drones that are going into that theater. so that is a -- the middle east is also a key component to resolving the russia-ukraine conflict. the president has. crystal clear that he sees this conflict in russia-ukraine as needing to come to an end. the question through this transition and into his second term is, how do we drive that deal? how do we drive all sides to the table? who is at that table? what are the broader frameworks of whether you want to call it an armistice, a deal, however we want to frame it out. how do we end the fighting?

the president really has been seized and struck with the extent of the casualties. people need to understand this is world war i-style trench warfare meet grinder with hundreds of thousands of people being fed into it. our question has been, okay if we're -- if the biden administration is escalating in response to a north korean escalation, now south korea is talking about some type of potential involvement, russia is responding in kind. we keep climbing this escalation ladder, and to what end? what is success in line with america's interests? what is success in line with stabilizing this effort? and we just met with the nato secretary general in palm beach and talking about what is europe's role in the long term? the eu has the same size economy as the united states, but roughly only half of the nato members are meeting the bare minimum. their defense spending.

if they're not going to do it now with world war -- the largest war since world war 2-year on their doorstep when are they going to? some european allies have -- like poland, like united kingdom, baltics are absolutely contributing a huge part of their budget but others are not and we had some good, strong, tough conversations with the nato secretary general about that. >> am i oversimplifying it to think it sounds like our answer to this american isolation we will pull back and allow european problems to be handled by europeans? >> no. i don't think so at all. i think what i just said the united states will be right there driving some type of deal, but in the long term, for ukraine to continue to defend itself, some type of security agreement will be part of this. europe has to take a major share of that. they have to take a larger share

of that. look, from our own perspective, the interest in our debt alone, just the interest, is eclipsing our entire defense budget. we cannot just afford year after year to pour tens of billions of dollars into a conflict that has no resolution. the president is prepared to do that if necessary, but we need to take i think a broader approach and then also one that is focused on ending the war, rather than this just kind of open-ended, you know, how far and how high is the escalation ladder going type of approach we've seen in the last couple years. >> mike waltz the incoming national security adviser and congressman waltz, thank you for your time this morning. >> all right. thank you. coming up, we've got a run down of this morning's retail reports and bedrock capital founder and openai investor geoff lewis going to talk about

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we had a number of retailers reporting just within the last few minutes. courtney regan joins us with more. >> if it wasn't busy enough. dick's sporting goods beating nearly across the board. adjusted earnings of $2.57, 7 cents above estimates on revenues of $3.06 billion. that's slightly above consensus. comparable sales up 4.2%, much stronger than estimates. the third quarter in a row the comps have gained more than 4%. the athletic retailer upping its full-year guidance for the third straight quarter, comps above the street. the earnings potentially maybe some people could take issue with. i spoke with executive chairman ed stack wants investors to know the guidance might be conservative but the retailer doesn't want to get over its skis as it's concerned with five fewer days between thanksgiving and christmas.

geopolitical noise with tariffs and otherwise. stack says inventory up 13% but it was a conscious decision. we have invested from key brands and particular products inside those key brands. it's a different story, though, for the other retailers so far this morning. kohl's up 8 cents, weaker revenues of 3.51 billion, comparable sales down 9.3%, below the projected fall of 5.1%. the off mall department store slashing guidance to an earnings range of 1.20 to 1 .50. net sales expected to fall between between 7 and 8%. it was expected to drop between 4 and 6%. the street was sitting at a negative 5%. the weakness in clothing and sales this morning. shares down 16%. ahead of earnings after the bell kohl's announced its ceo tom kings bury stepping down january

15th. michael's craft store ashley buchanan will take over. more on a write-up on dotcom. best buy just out ith result. it missing across-the-board adjusted earnings of 1.26, three cents shy on revenues of $9.45 billion, expectations for $9.63 billion. the street expected it to fall just 1%. shares down 6%. ceo cory berry calls out a combination of the macro uncertainty, deals and distractions during the run up to the election in the nonessential categories for disappointing sales. she also notes in the first few weeks of q4 the election is behind us and consumer demand increase again. a lot of noise and stuff going on in retail. you got to be a stock picker here if you want to play some of these names because the stories are different name to name. >> i was looking at kohl's the longer term over that. year-to-date that stock even before the declines, 35%.

>> comparable store sales have been down like ten quarters in a row. >> struggles. >> best buy i don't understand. they have to come up with reasons, i guess. i'm not sure. >> consumers -- >> consumer uncertainty. i'm going to hold off on that wide screen tv until after the election. >> they bought a bunch during the pandemic and don't need them yet. >> they said the election. >> that's what they blame for softening and unexpected sales. people are waiting for the big deals. to be fair, buying electronics is usually a very big period of time during this coming week, right. so if you're going to buy a flat screen tv do you buy it in october or wait until black friday. i would argue wait until black friday. >> comparing to last year so what's the difference? >> that's true. i talked to best buy and people are in the market for extra, extra large tvs, 90 inches, those are expensive. i don't know why you need a 90 inch tv. if you want something like that

and it's an upgrade you wait and that's the product cycle of this holiday season. >> 90. why not 105? 105? >> i don't think you can get a really clear picture with a 90 inch or big enough. >> probably not. >> 105. >> so pixlated. >> you had to use -- you could only make it a certain size or you needed an extra -- >> i remember when they first came out and best buy was breaking a lot accidentally because they were so fragile and there was shrink that quarter. >> best buy has stayed relevant than a lot of us thought. >> last man standing. >> you need people to come out and help you do that. >> they have good service. they've amped that up. you can't do that on amazon. >> thank you, courtney. >> thank you. >> "squawk box" will be right back, we hope.

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welcome back to "squawk box." joining us to talk about the tech headlines geoff lewis managing partner which has invested in openai. great to talk to you this morning. we have been watching a whole

number of things taking place. this google trial that may have a huge impact on things, openai you have a big investment getting into the search business in the past week or two and then, you know, elon musk, who is, obviously, now super tight with trump, is having great success, it appears, with xai. i want to get to that and about a hundred other things. where do you see the race as it relates to the large language models? >> yeah. super exciting time, andrew, and still continue to believe that openai is the clear leader. there is this dynamic with these llms, large language model, where you've got a lot of catching up that happens, and then other groups then exceed the folks that have caught up to them, so you've had anthropic chasing openai, xai has done a phenomenal job of scaling up fast with their super cluster, but the wedge that openai has

that is still massively under appreciated, it was last publicly reported over 200 million weekly active users on chatgpt and consumer product and that is just an extreme wedge. when i walk through -- something i do not so common i walk through the malls and see what people are using, hear people using it to translate things in stores, i hear folks in elevators talking to chatgpt, and at this point it's the definitive consumer brand for ai. i think regardless of what happens with the llm race -- which i do believe openai will ultimately win -- it is the consumer brand at this point. >> do you ultimately believe openai succeeds as its own consumer brand and people are paying it directly or do you think it will succeed as a result, for example, of the partnership with microsoft which has come under criticism recently from folks like marc benioff and others? >> yeah. i mean the consumer side is really chatgpt which is openai

and, so i feel from a consumer standpoint it is kind of winning in that position and it will be interesting to see what happens with xai. one dynamic that i think we might find down the road is intuitively, i don't think consumers will necessarily want to be using the same ai that is hyper tied with the government. i think there's an interesting strategic question around what elon is doing and doing phenomenal things right now. there's a question of to what degree does the xai stuff become tied in with the u.s. government over time and i think there's a sense in which that's -- that might be extremely valuable, very helpful to the u.s. and then there is a question on who wins consumer. at this point it truly is openai. >> do me a favor, unpack what you just said there about xai and elon musk, and its relationship with the government. how are you seeing that ifest

itself? >> not seeing it manifest itself in any way. elon is a successful government contractor through spacex and other companies, specifically spacex today. unbelievable business. beyond the government they have a phenomenal business with starlink. he does do work there and, you know, it's -- it's plausible that in the future, some or all of these large language model companies might do work with the government. i think intuitively as a consumer i feel like you are more likely to trust a consumer product like a chat bot, ai chat bot that helps you if it's somewhat less with the government, is my intuition. >> geoff, under a trump administration there is a view there will be more m&a activity than there has been in the past. historically, some of these big llms probably would have liked early on to sell themselves even or at least microsoft would have wanted to own an openai or a

google or an amazon would have wanted to own an anthropic or something of that sort. do you see big transformational deals happening in the future under this new administration? >> you know, i think there will be big deals that happen. i don't know how transformational they're going to be. i think there's sort of -- there are going to be winners and losers. it's possible that the -- anthropic partnership narrowly works for amazon. the main contingency in the investment they're making right now anthropic has to use their amazon chips in lieu of the nvidia chips. it's not clear that's a purely, you know, venture capitalist i'm trying get a certain return. i think the return for amazon might be anthropic using their chips. i do expect there's going to be more consolidation. we've seen some acquisitions here in the private markets. but then on the other hand you have things like the google doj dynamic where it's been reported

that the doj is suggesting to google that they divest their investment in anthropic. i think these things will cut in multiple ways. there should be more m&a over the next few years. i expect to see that. >> and finally, geoff, do you see openai as a buyer or a seller? >> i would see them as a buyer. >> of. >> you know, it's not clear today what they would buy, but i certainly don't think it would be anthropic or another llm. i would see them -- to the extent there are these wrappers on chatgpt, these thin applications gaining traction in the enterprise or different consumer wrappers on openai, if anything really gains mass adoption, they might be a buyer for something like that. they might buy teams for their -- for their talent on the research side. there's a finite number of these extraordinary researchers. one argument is the researchers are getting less valuable because the ai is now improving itself. but i still think that you'll

see acquisitions and acquisitions around different products that have gotten large distribution on top of openai's api. >> geoff, always great to see you. want to wish you a happy thanksgiving. >> likewise. >> when we come back lidia's kitchen comes to "squawk box." the tv host and chef lidia bastianich going to be joining us next and maybe showing us a trick or two about things you might be able to use at the thanksgiving table. coming up in the next hour, former house speaker kevin mccarthy on president-elect's trump cabinet picks, tariffs, taxes and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. ) (♪♪) (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here.

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our next guest in studio is a legend in the food and media industries as people prepare to gather for thanksgiving this week. she's going to share her unique insight on high food prices and the consumer.

let's welcome lidia bastianich. restauranteur, best-selling author and emmy-award winning public tv host. her latest pbs special premiers tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern. she celebrates america change makers, highlighting stories of chefs, farmers and entrepreneurs thinking about how we're changing food, stuffing a cricket for thanksgiving. >> not quite stuffing. >> we'll talk about crickets later. becky, you love crickets stew, pasta. >> huge fan. >> remind me of the future. >> eating bugs. i've heard we're going to have to do that. >> yes. >> let's talk about some of the recent articles and publications and news reports that thanksgiving is going to be cheap this year for -- to put the food on the table. i don't -- i think people wish it was. have prices come down at all for what we're, you know, going to serve on thanksgiving?

>> i think, you know, the food stores and suppliers have realized that there's a difficulty out there, that money is scarce, and so they have some specials to lure people in. i think turkey is one of those specials. there's abundance of turkeys. turkeys keep well frozen and so on. so it's -- is it going to be cheaperer? i don't think so. but you can still have a great turkey and thanksgiving. just be careful on shopping, you know. certainly a whole turkey, the size of turkey matters. you know. we all buy these turkeys and we have so much leftover. yeah, you can make stock the next day and whatever. but buy a sort of measurable turkey that you can finish or if that not -- is not -- if you're not -- the whole turkey is too much, parts of turkeys. you buy the breast on the bone, not -- on the bone and roast that with vegetables or cheaper

are the darker meat, the legs, the wings, and all of that. and that you have to cook a long time, almost braise it to get it done. so as far as the vegetables, stay seasonal and local. root vegetables, the whole cab badge family is in. it's abundant. it's not expensive. it goes a long way. >> because it's -- if food is up 20% and goes down a half percent, that doesn't count from year over year. >> i know. the message is out there as a consumer, as a spectator, as a viewer, we have to be selective. we listen to all and then make our own selection, sort of reasonable sort of approach to spending and cooking. >> but the toughest part for me is trying to get everything on the table at the right time. if you're -- if you have a bunch of people who are over, you're going to have -- to the just the turkey, the ham, all the sides

that come with it and getting everything out of the oven so it's all warm at the same time is tricky. >> it is. it's really playing a game. but the oven is the way to go. you took most of it in the oven, whether it's the vegetables -- like a roasted mix root vegetables. you put turnips and carrots and onions and all squash, cut it in pieces, season it, about the same pieces so they can cook and then you have your big tray and cover and keep warm, you know. you were just -- we were just talking off the air, you bought some heat. >> this is my new trick i'm going to try. >> you have two ovens, of course, right? >> i have three ovens. but it's still tricky. >> exactly. >> we said we might talk about some of the trends in food. in addition to what you're talking about sustainability with crickets et cetera and rfk jr. thinks we're all totally

unhealthy. what we consume and how we consume it, there is kind of a sea change occurring or -- from external pressures, don't you think? >> absolutely. you know, big industry, we have to sort of be careful, you know. there are big industry there to make money, quantity and all that, but so he's not wrong all the way. we need to return to natural things. we need to read the label and make sure. we need to support the farmers, the local farmers, and whatever so that we have fresh, seasonal things. let's not go to another country -- >> natural doesn't mean bugs and crickets. sorry to tell you this. >> crickets are natural. >> that doesn't mean i have to eat them. if mikey likes it over here, if mikey likes it i will try it. does cricket pasta -- you put the crickets in with the pasta? >> crickets or insects have been on the table for big cultures.

you two to china, you know, up in the market -- >> china! i see the crazy bugs on there. i'm not -- i don't have to eat that. >> go to mexico, again, mexico city -- >> >> taco bell has bugs. >> i'm talking about eating the bugs. insects. >> what tastes the best? >> crickets are nice, toasted like nuts. >> i think you're nuts. >> we're slowly going to get there. that's the future, joe. you know. >> okay. >> the environment. >> have we tried all the different bugs to see which ones might taste the best? >> you know, mexican cuisine and in the special i cook with a mexican chef, they do, they use worms, they use ants. >> worms? >> yeah. >> and the worms, they sort of eat fruit and whatever, so, you know, they're not -- >> tasty. >> they're tasty. but insects -- >> not gummy worms. i like those. >> you make them nice and crunchy and season them.

>> i love gummy worms. >> can i pretend i'm eating worms. >> if i'm going to catch crickets and cook them up or toast them -- >> no. usually these insects are already dehydrated dry, so they're crunchy, almost like nuts. i went to visit this young couple in minnesota and they're thinking about the future, you know. he is an environmentalist attorney and his consciousness is where is the world going? insects are pure proteins, no fat. they -- to sort of reproduce, they don't take much out of the environment. and they're not expensive. >> they get stuck in your teeth. >> are the legs still on them? >> oh, my god. all of those things you use. >> i can find the dehydrated ones under the sink. you don't have to dehydrate them. >> i went there. -- >> roaches? lidia, roaches? >> i haven't gotten there yet. >> why not.

they're juicy, i think, and much bigger. >> joe. let's get serious. >> okay. >> thanksgiving is coming. >> i am serious. seriously ill. >> i went to visit these two young -- this couple and what they did, they grew the crickets and then what they did, they grew these crickets and then they hydrated them and they made the flour and we made pasta from it. we made pasta. the question is what are you going to sauce it with so i made pesto. >> pesto goes with crickets. >> yes, instead of pine nuts i put the crickets in there and it was good. and did you taste -- did i taste them really? no. but the nourishment was there and there was a little nuttiness tonuttiness? >> i used to keep live crickets. >> for turtles? >> lizards. they smell bad. the process is not --

>> no. well, you know, but we have to begin to think alternative sort of nourishing. >> i think it is interesting to talk about in addition to everything else. but thank you. and good luck and happy thanksgiving. >> thank you, thank you. and tonight the special, can see how i pesto with the crickets. >> 9:00? >> 9:00 p.m. on pbs. >> thank you, lidia. >> thank you for having me. merry christmas -- happy -- >> happy christmas. >> happy thanksgiving and then happy holidays. >> all the way through. >> exactly. >> all right, it is 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories, president-elect trump vowing to hit china, canada and mexico with tariffs when he takes office. in posts on his site, he said he would raise tariffs by 10% on all chinese goods coming into the united states on top of the existing tariffs. he also said that he would put

new 25% tariffs on canadian and mexican goods. third quarter results from electronics retailer best buy are out. that company missing earnings and revenue estimates. also cutting its full year sales guidance. it now expects full year comparable sales to drop by 2.5% to 3.5%, that's the worst range than previously forecast and that stock is off this morning by about 7%. on the flip side, shares of dick's sporting goods are higher. the company raising its full year guidance after what the ceo there called excellent back to school shopping for the season and better than expected third quarter comp sales. that stock is up by 8%. andrew? meantime, want to get over to dom chu, a look at this morning's premarket movers. what you got, dom? >> andrew, joe, becky, let's kick things off with amgen, sliding in the premarket trade. the company said its experimental weight loss injection helped patients with obesity lose up to 20% of their weight on average after a year. the results appear to be on the

lower end of wall street's expectations sending that stock down roughly 7% right now. so keep an eye on amgen. you got eli lilly and novo nordisk in the opposite direction, right? both companies compete in that weight loss injection space and are higher on the back of some of the results. those stocks are getting a boost also from the federal government, president biden proposing today he plans to provide coverage for weight loss drugs for those enrolled in medicare and medicaid. eli is up 3.5%. novo nordisk up 2.5%. and then we got an earnings mover as well. zoom shares are sliding now, just down maybe 9.5%, despite reporting third quarter revenues and profits that both beat expectations. also raised their full year forecast. expectations were high heading into the report with those shares already up around 4% so far over the last is it-month period. watch zoom video shares. the video -- the softwaremaker is announcing that it is rebranding itself, corporate name from zoom video

communications to just zoom communications. the ceo said the change reflects the company's evolution into an a.i. first work platform. zoom communications, not video, down 9%, becky. back over to you guys. >> okay, dom, thank you. up next, automakers and dealers are playing the incentive game this holiday season, but will deals deliver a sizable sales boost? phil lebeau will break it down for us after this break. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." many dealers are offering steep price discounts, will it be a december to remember? that's the question of the morning and phil lebeau joins us with the answer this morning. >> andrew, they needed a december to remember. december has in recent years become much more important for automakers and auto dealers, in terms of sales. so it brings up the question whether or not that will be the case this year. they certainly are aising the incentives in terms of trying to get people in to close deals. as you mentioned, these incentives are up 60% compared with october of last year. average transaction price still close to a record high, but look at the insentive now, up more

than $3700, that's the average right now. there is some places, if you look around, they'll be, like, hey, you want $4500 off a new vehicle, 5 grand off a new vehicle? let's make a deal. they have to clear out inventory. you look at annual auto sales, the pace of sales this year, it is only up 1% or 2% compared to last year. 15.7, 15.8 million, at the beginning of this year, they thought they would sell 16 million. that's not happening. we're at group one, carvana and we know the story of carvana, off the charts relative to group one, and sonic. not bad returns for the other dealers. the bulk of the profits they make, it is in the back of the business. it is with service. and then when you look at toyota, gm, ford and stellantis, the issues there, there is a multitude of them. inventory levels, highest since

2019. we talked this morning about the possibility of tariffs for vehicles that are built in mexico or in canada. and then sold here in the united states. and then finally, guys, waynd to look at rivian versus tesla. since the election day, and tesla, we know what is happening there, because of elon musk and his relationship with donald trump. look at rivian here. closing that loan or at least securing that loan with the department of energy for $6.6 billion. that's part of the move higher that you see in the last couple of days. >> phil, i got maybe a curveball for you, because we were talking earlier in the broadcast about the potential tariffs in mexico and canada. when you think about the big u.s. automakers, maybe even other automakers that are importing from mexico and canada into the u.s., do you have any sense of who has the greatest exposure there? >> gm. hands down, gm. 30% of the vehicles that are

built in mexico are for north american sales and the bulk of that is here in the united states. then you have stellantis, 28% of its production in mexico is for north america, again, the bulk of that in the united states. ford has the least exposure, 16%, so it is in a little better shape in terms of overall exposure, but they all would be whacked. you're looking at 2.5 million vehicles that are being exported from mexico here to the united states. you slap a tariff on those, and you rip up u.s. mta, that is a whole can of worms right there for the big three. >> phil lebeau, i knew you would know the answer off the top of your head. thank you, sir. maybe we'll see you at an airport tomorrow. >> sensitive about that. coming up, much more on president-elect trump picks for his cabinet and other key posts in his administration, former house speaker kevin mccarthy is going to join us. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

president-elect -- president-elect trump cabinet picks have started meeting with senators now. our nechblt guest says this should put them in position for timely confirmation. joining us now former speaker of the house kevin mccarthy, he also has some news this morning that we're going to get to, and a new group aimed at advocating for pro technology proposals. it is funny that we need -- do we need someone to advocate for that? >> you know, the one thing i learned in congress, and it is something i tried to focus on being speaker you get so bogged down on the day to day stuff, you're not looking at things a decade from now. like, that's why i created the select committee on china. m.i.t. teaches a course to all the generals in our military for a.i. and quantum. so three years ago, i took ten members and had them develop a course to teach a.i. and quantum to all the members in congress

and we reconstitute the intel committee so they're focused. and when you think about where america poised today for a.i., energy, defense, these are things i worked on, but having served those 17 years and now being on the outside, you really need that private sector in there, that combination to make the right policies and that's why i created the alpha institute, we're rolling it out today. and it is based upon -- we tried to go to space, you read the right stuff, alpha is the name of the module, the nickname, where the astronauts get trained to try to stay straight with all the gravitational pull and the pressures. and that's where you are in congress. we think about congress today, they're not doing president trump a favor. they haven't finished the funding for this year, they're going into the next year where the president now has to worry about last year's funding and not being able to be ready for the future. we're not going to capture a.i. unless we change the permitting process and enhance the energy grid in us to win the a.i. battle.

defense, we're not going to stay number one unless we reform the processing of the defense department. these are things i worked on. but the things i worked on the outside, the private sector can help tremendously. >> some of that sounds like infrastructure spending.it feel administration is going to be cutting back on some of those things, trying to be more efficient, trying to not waste and in the process probably going to cut a lot of things. how do you get spending for initiatives like that in an environment? >> you have the capital for this, the problem is not more capital, the problem is the permitting. i was having this debate with biden when we were doing the debt ceiling because what happens, if you're just -- the president wanted renewable energy, i want all of the above. but nobody can get a permit to build any of it. and in the debt ceiling, we actually got a little reform, and we were negotiating to do that further, treat everybody equal so you can build the pipeline, build the -- >> a lot of that stayed local. do you plan on overriding that

from the federal government? >> to me, this is essence, whoever captures a.i. and quantum really captures the future. >> but, again, back to this administration, that's about giving more rights back to the states, more control back to the states. >> i think you can put guidelines -- that's why you need the combination. when i used every single position in leadership when i served in congress. what i do is i take members out to silicon valley for two days. i remember taking pompeo as a freshman, meeting a startup across from stanford called palantir and what happens is you get so bogged down in congress, doing the day to day, you're not looking what the future is passing you by. creating the select committee on china, the most bipartisan committee we had, i thought of that by walking the 75th anniversary of normandy with pelosi. looking at those grave sites, wondering what could those policymakers have done that that day would have never taken place and it wasn't a year before it was a decade before, our

dependency upon china, medical supplies, processing, those are not partisan issues. this is an opportunity to actually work together on both sides, to really look to america how do we poise, because, look, i think we're in a new industrial revolution. and i think this is -- to me, i'm excited about where we are, but how do we harness that and get the right policies. >> i don't want to -- i don't like being predictable. so, i'm not going to focus on matt gaetz other than to use the same joke i used yesterday with andrew. i didn't know what to get you for christmas, i'm paying for a cameo greeting from matt gaetz for you. >> thank you. >> i figure you might like that. but let's not talk about that, that's history already. you said it wasn't going to happen, it didn't happen. let's talk about the -- >> i also said early on that president trump would be the nominee and win the presidency. and i also said right before the election, when everybody was saying the gender gap was going to put her ahead and i told you, she's behind on the gender gap

than where biden was. to me, you saw this coming. >> i agree. i thought -- i thought he would win over 300 the entire time. >> ou did say that. >> i did say that. i also said once every four years the rest of the country is no longer inundated with what they hear from the mainstream media and see what the american people actually are thinking instead of what we're being told to think. >> if you even listen, this is an opportunity for democrats to retool their policies and i'm excited to see some of them actually talk about it, because the pendulum -- >> it is better when they stay the way they were. >> no, it is bad. >> scott bessent, 333, i hadn't even heard of this, but it sounds good to get it to -- have you seen this? deficit get to 3% of gdp, 3 million additional barrels of oil per day, and 3% gdp.

can it be done? >> it can be done. you can never achieve anything unless you set out a goal and a mission. what was our goal during the last four years? what was our deficit supposed to be? what was our growth supposed to be? you put these out so people can focus and tain them and now people know where to work toward. >> so much to talk about. who doesn't make it at this point, do you think? does everyone make it from here or do you think rfk jr.? >> of the nominees? >> yeah. >> it is still early, they got to get out and have the hearings and others. i think somebody is always -- i don't -- gaetz was never going to make it anyway. but the others, i think the country likes what he has picked now. and i think the senators sitting down with them, i think they all have a good chance. >> tulsi gabbard makes it, pete hegseth makes it. >> i think pete makes it. i think pete's turning the corner. i think you have to look at pete in a combination of who is going to be the number two.

and this is the way the president thinks. the president looks at he's going to have a big say in a lot of this and who is logistically transforming the defense department. he has a couple of names out there that look at that and pete would be doing another job as well. >> what do you think of doj?ge? >> i love it. i love it. >> they lay out vivek and elon lay out all of these issues that sound like massive, massive waste. is there that much waste there? can it be stripped out? >> yeah. when is last time you looked at it? we get into internal fights. it is the challenge that we had when the soviet union collapsed. no one member is going to raise their hand and say close my military. >> why didn't you to this, kevin, when you were speaker of the house? >> i proposed it and the president said no. i was putting into it what -- that's called a basic realignment and closure. this is what we were proposing and going forward on. the debt ceiling i proposed to the president, this is the right time to do it, each party in the

senate nominates them, they put a plan together, and then you vote it up or vote it down. >> like simpson bowls, but that got voted down and nothing happened. >> now you got vivek and elon actually making the case at the same time and letting the public in on it. that's the best thing. that's like going into a business and saying, give us your opinion, right? tell us where there is waste. >> because that will make the public in turn put pressure on the members of congress to look at -- >> it is not partisan. it is not coming from one side. right? and everybody can have an idea. and tell us where it is at. one person doesn't know everything that is happening in government. you really want the people inside and outside that interact with it. and with technology today, why aren't we utilizing that. why is it easier to get a car from uber and rate the driver and rate the person that rides in it than for a veteran to get an appointment for a doctor and rate the doctor? what you would do is you would slim government, you would be

more efficient, more effective and provide a better service to the constituent. and every dollar you save is not government's money. >> what about all of these things that people keep saying the civil service is not going to be allowed to do that, you can't make as many cuts. you understand government insight now. >> what doge puts together is not going to be lock barrel. because policymakers have to vote on it. but the structure will dictate the behavior. if you started inside, the other side would fight with you, no matter who proposed it. this is on the outside . this is asking the public to come in. the debt has gotten so large. the debt ceiling, we cut trillion, you think it was the worst thing on earth. no, you had to go much further but we can only look at 11% of the entire budget. now you can look at everything, and a perspective of somebody on outside and giving us better efficiency. i think that would make the case stronger when you first go in it is not partisan.

you might not get 100% of it, but if you get 50% of what they're proposing, the country is in a much stronger position. >> do you think that with all these different cross currents that, tariffs were announced on day one, he's going to try to do some of these things. >> but did you read what he announced and why? i think this is very important. >> with immigration and fentanyl and -- >> immigration and fentanyl. >> i'm just wondering with -- scott bessent said he's going to get the tax cuts extended and do the -- no taxes on tips. don't a lot of things have to go right for us not to reignite inflation and scare the bond market? and i'm surprised the bond market keeps -- it is very strange, ten-year yield keeps going down. it is supposed to be at 5% by now from fear of trump. >> think of this. when he says to stop fentanyl, think about what fentanyl is doing. it is the number one killer of americans between the ages of 18

and 45. but think about the ages between 18 and 45, the years you're most productive, the years you reproduce and the years you serve in the military. it is the most critical time for a nation. so if this is the number one killer and he's stopping that, before he even goes into office -- >> no one thought that. and illegal immigration. >> will these go into effect? what the president is telling you, he's going to focus on america, but he's going to use every single tool he has in whatever negotiation you're talking about. that's why the world is going to be reset. that's why it is going to be a safer place and that's why we an attain all those goals we set out. but when you're defending the number one age generation for the future of the currently serving and you're stopping what -- it is all coming directly from china, that's a direct attack on america. that's going after those who serve in the military. it goes after our most productive years, it goes after -- the years you

reproduce. that's really a big attack on your economy itself. so i wouldn't worry about the bond market. i would be excited about, yeah, i'm stopping that, so the generation that is doing all the work right now is healthier, more productive, and going to live longer and reproduce. >> rfk gets it. >> i think he gets it. >> tulsi gabbard. >> i think she gets in. >> quieter and quieter. >> no, look, i've known tulsi a long time. i went to her wedding. she was in our workout team. i think tulsi is misconstrued because she's a quiet person too. she loves this country. she served in the military. i watched her, never once complain, but proud of what she's doing and -- >> but the question is what the senate thinks. >> i don't think the senate knows her. the senate doesn't know her. you got to think of who she is. she ran for president in a party that attacked her and bold enough to say i'm going to put the country first and even flip over. i'll support the person -- she

didn't say i'm just going to be a republican, she said i'm frustrated and i'm not going to give up and she watched somebody that would sit down when most democrats were afraid to talk to president trump, she wasn't afraid to, she said i'm not just going to be a republican, she said i'm going to help you, because it is the right thing to do. that's a good quality. >> mr. mccarthy -- you want me to call you mr. speaker? >> i went 15 rounds to get it. i want to keep it. >> already, mr. speaker. i think you like your new gig better than the old gig. >> you know what i like? i like coming to see you. >> you're welcome to come. >> i took andrew's seat. didn't go a little liberal. >> might have gone a little bit. >> oh! >> i always said that about you. little -- >> no. >> didn't you like paul ryan? you're friends with him, right? >> you know what, you can never have too many friends in this world. paul is a conservative. >> please. all right.

well, thank you. good to have you on. >> all right. he's a communist. the lefty. the lefty. the guy's, you know, anyway, we come back, a deep dive into this morning's big slate of retail reports and we're intogog talk crypto and bitcoin's rise on donald trump's election. dan morehead. all that and more when "squawk box" rolls on. r, where are we g? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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>> qualcomm is no longer interested -- as interested in taking over intel as it once was. and this is a bloomberg report which cited sources saying that the complexities of such a deal have made it less attractive now to qualcomm. back in september, reports said qualcomm had made a preliminary approach to intel about a possible deal. intel is in the midst of one of its biggest ever restructure, thousands of job are being cut as the company struggles through

market share losses in what so far has been an inability to crack the a.i. market in any meaningful way. it is weird. it is complicated, but a lot cheaper than it would have been back then. so it must be a reason why it is cheaper. >> you wonder, it comes on the same day we hear about the funding coming out, less than it was originally under the chips act and that targets have to be made before they get paid out on some of those issues too. but, yeah, maybe just a complicated situation. >> rallied from 19 back to where it is anyway, a little bit. you can seen to the chart there. actually lower back in april. speaking of chips, when we come back, we'll talk about the future of chips and the science act. once president-elect takes office, what happens to all that money that congress targeted at semiconductor manufacturing? the outgoing biden administration finalizing an

award this morning. we'll talk about all that and more when "squawk box" returns.

welcome back to "squawk box." the commerce department finalizing $7.9 billion

manufacturing award to intel, appearing to be moving to get money out the door before president-elect donald trump takes office. joining us right now on the state of the u.s. manufacturing chip business, if you will, chris miller, professor at the fletcher school at tuft's university, the author of chip war. this does seem to be a lot of last minute finagling before the biden administration turns it over to the trump administration. i wonder what you think of what they're doing here. >> well, i think the industry has been pushing to get these grants wrapped up as soon as possible. they have been pushing the government to hurry up and get the grands sgrants over the li have seen with intel today some of the big grants being wrapped up. >> no, i totally understand that. but then the part of the question is are they trying to get this money out the door so that the trump administration

can't, i imagine, try to claw it back, which i imagine they might otherwise want to do. >> you know, i think there has been a lot of focus on this question. if you zoom out, the chips act was first brought up in congress under the trump administration. tsmc's first investment in arizona was announced during the trump administration, so there has been a whole lot of continuity between what the first trump administration put in place and what the biden administration's been executing and so i would downplay, i think, the significance of campaign trail rhetoric. the reality is this legislation is supported by both parties in both houses of congress. i don't think the administration is going to dramatically change it. so the grants being finalized now, they're likely to be supported by the next administration too. >> given the challenges that intel is clearly having, when you look at the grant program, if you will, do you think that a decade from now we're going to look back and say, this was great, we did it perfectly, not

even perfectly, we're happy we did this, or do you think we're going to look back like i think a lot of people look now at the ev efforts or ev charging efforts that didn't appear to work the way they were supposed to? >> you know, perfect is a pretty high bar, i think if the question is will the chips act have spurred a major investment boom in the chip manufacturing in the united states, the answer is already pretty clear. it is yes. there has been something like 10 x increase over the past couple of years in investment and chips relative to the trend over the prior decade. tsmc has a plan up and running in arizona with the manufacturing quality, the company says matching what it can do in taiwan. and we got big projects under way with other companies as well. i think you can't see with a crystal ball any specific company's plan and that's why the government is making a broad array of bets, a portfolio of two dozen different grants in different types of technology spectrum. it knows it is not going to

predict perfectly. but i think the broad portfolio is already having a major impact on investment and chip manufacturing. >> where do you think this -- if you were to identify what you would look at as a success in all of this, beyond the sort of broad macro of what you suggested, are there any specific examples, you go, that's a win, that's a win, that's a win? >> i think if you look at tsmc's investment in arizona, a plant that as i mentioned is already up and running, that's a plant that would not be here had it not been for the u.s. government pushing for it and incentivizing it. and if you rely on the clock to a year ago, all the discussion was about how tsmc couldn't do it, the labor shortages were too intense, construction was taking too long and here it is, it is up and running. costs are still higher than in taiwan, no doubt about that. but there is real diversification coming from that and that's the first of three plants that tsmc says it plans to build . if there hadn't been a chips

act, there wouldn't be that facility. >> five years from now, do you see the possibility of competitive chip manufacturing in the u.s.? because if it is more expensive than elsewhere, that unto itself is a complication. >> for sure. i think there is no doubt that as there is more chip manufacturing happening, costs will fall as ecosystem effects emerge and you begin to get some economies of scale. right now there is a pretty substantial cost differential, especially for leading edge chips between taiwan or korea and the united states. that's going to fall, it is going to go to zero over five years. i'm not sure about that. is it going to decline enough that companies are willing to pay more to have more diversified manufacturing base? that's plausible. the fact that companies like tsmc are willing to make the bet on not just one facility, but multiple facilities over a decade in the u.s. suggests that they buy the business rational, even if costs aren't exactly the same, they think they can make

the case work. >> so i understand the tmc piece of this, given their expertise and success. i'm more questioning the intel piece of this, which is to say that business has been challenged, challenged for a long time and they have not seemingly gotten to the same point as tsmc. do you see them getting to that point and how much more money do you think the u.s. government may have to give them? >> i think the key challenge intel faces is not money per se. no doubt they're happy to get the chips act grant. the key challenge they face is winning customers for their business. that alone is going to determine the success of their effort to build out their manufacturing business n the u.s. will it work? i don't have a crystal ball. i think it has got a shot, which is why the company is continuing their investments. but it is a tough market, tsmc is a tough competitor. if you're sitting in the u.s. government's shoes, you would rather make a portfolio of that and see which company succeeds

in the marketplace rather than trying to pick a single winner and put all your eggs in a single basket. >> do you think we have enough competition, chip competition in the u.s.? there has been talk about potentially a tie-up between intel and arm, for example. >> i would say those are two companies that operate in pretty different segments of the chip business. intel's focused on chip manufacturing and designing specific types of x 86 chips. arm is in a completely different segment, selling intellectual property and licenses. so, yeah, they're in the same industry, they got entirely different product sets. so if you're looking at antitrust issues, you got a segment beyond the chip industry. i think there are segments where one might be worried about competitive dynamics. that's where you got a single player in a single segment than if you look at intel and arm, they're two different swim lanes. >> chris, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you.

>> thank you. joe? coming up, blockchain investor dan morehead from pantera capital joins us on bitcoin's run-up since donald trump's election and where he sees the crypto market going next on a day where bitcoin's pulling back. a bit closer to 90,000 now than 100. "squawk box" will be right back.

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all right, some breaking news. mexico's president sending a letter to president-elect trump. she says migrant caravans are no longer arriving to the u.s./mexico border. she says we always have shown mexico's willingness to stem the fentanyl epidemic in the united states, and she says it is not with threats or with tariffs that the migratory phenomenon or the drug consumption will be addressed. a response to what president-elect trump has said that there will be 25% tariffs

on anything coming from exico or canada starting on the day he takes office, that that will be one of the first things that he puts into effect and into action until there is something to be done with illegal migrants coming across the border or with fentanyl and he's reaching out and saying similar things about china, that he's going to be putting 10% additional tariffs on china until they address the fentanyl that they are sending to mexico to come across our borders. >> not tariffs or threats. then what is she -- >> i don't know. she says it doesn't exist. second of all -- >> doesn't exist. >> second of all, you won't -- >> the border is secure, as we were told many times. bitcoin pulling back a little bit today. 92,000. got to near is 100,000. up 30% since donald trump's election win. our next guest had a front row seat to the crypto rally, dan morehead, pantera capital management founder and managing partner and the firm out with news this morning with bitcoin's

rise, pantera's bitcoin fund hit a milestone of 1,000 times the initial where it was since its inception. dan is here. thank you for joining us. you were nice enough -- i guess it is nice -- unbelievable to send us that original memo you wrote in 2013, where you were basically saying, okay, now is the time, it is pulled back. bitcoin, time to buy. pulled back to $65 from $130. and that's when the fund -- it is time to do it and you said i'm going to buy 30,000 and this was the launch of the first institutional vehicle for bitcoin? >> yeah, the first crypto fund in the u.s. >> first crypto fund. and a thousand times was passed and now with it is 30% above the 1,000 times at this point? >> still early, though. i think the median institutional ownership of blockchain is zero. most institutions have zero exposure and even the ones that

are really progressive, really been working on it have 1% or 2% of their allocation to blockchain. i think we still have a couple more decades to go. >> you put that, 95% of financial wealth has no investments in blockchain whatsoever. >> they have no material investments. 20 basis points, 30 basis points. ultimately an asset class with, you know, 8% investment. >> you would date the regulatory headwinds, you would say that goes back 15 years basically and now it is actually -- are they tailwinds now? >> i think so. you know, i think most people want clarity. they want rules written down so they can follow them. and it seems like the president-elect has a much more direct approach to promoting regulatory clarity. and if you think about it, the u.s. was very instrumental in making internet happen in the united states. the u.s. government built the internet and provided all kinds

of regulatory safe hashers har. in blockchain, it is the polar opposite. 93% of protocols are -- 93% of the market cap is based outside the united states. would be great to have that flow back. >> and you call trump the first pro blockchain u.s. president in office. >> it is true. >> really? >> he bought cheeseburgers with bitcoin, first time head of state of the united states has done that. >> you have heard about a possible strategic reserve. you think that's a possibility or probability? >> i think there are two versions of that. one is the president-elect said he will not sell the bitcoins the u.s. already owns. the united states owns 1% of the world's bitcoins. that seems easier to do than getting passage to buy additional bitcoins. i think it is a great strategy. the u.s. is the reserve currency of the world. we don't have another currency to save our reserves in. so saving in bitcoin would be a

great strategic move. >> did this come easy for you? were you a baby cub, were you a cub, a tiger cub? >> tiger cub. >> and suddenly you're a crypto maven. was it hard initially? so many people still resist, it is still -- they think it is a beanie baby. >> that's why i'm still bullish. people are so skeptical. i was looking at my notes in 2016, i did 170 investor meetings around the world trying to raise money for bitcoin and crypto. we raised $1 million. >> oh, man. >> what did you read that convinced you? because i watch people on our air, people that worked for this company, saying there is no reason to believe there is -- that it is any historic value and they come up with the same argument, it is not backed by anything. as if anything that has been used for money -- nothing is backed by anything. it is money. that's a characteristic of

money. it is used -- >> it is backed by the full, faith and credit of the u.s. government. >> it is not backed by -- it is paper, it is much less than -- money itself for 4,000 years has represented there are certain characteristics that bitcoin has six of them, does it not? even better than gold. >> it is better than gold. paper money, visa, mastercard, all of these things, and that's why it is such a great trade. the intrinsic value story, if you think about it, the intrinsic value of a jackson pollock is 40 bucks. but they have an 80-year track record of appreciating. >> now you sound like -- blockchain, because it is -- we know all the reasons, we heard all the reasons why it is, because it is the centralized and it is a distributed ledger and can't be double counted. there is a lot of reasons why it is -- there is a tangible amount, can't be destroyed. can it be destroyed if you unplug the computer? >> everyone has a copy of it.

>> every single person that has ever -- >> probably 10% or 15% of all bitcoins have been lost. 13% a few years ago. the argument is about expected value. i wouldn't bet my entire life savings that bitcoin is going to go up but it has been averaging, almost doubling every year for 11 years. >> would you bet your life it is not going to zero? >> i used to tell people it could go to zero to try and be conservative. i don't think it is possible now. 50 million people in the u.s. own it, blackrock and fidelity are selling it. it has reached escape velocity. >> and your 745,000, i heard 13 million from michael sailor the other day. >> i think it can go -- it has gone up three orders of magnitude. i think it can go up a fourth. that puts it at 15 trillion market cap, which still seems

relatively small versus 500 trillion of financial assets. that is doable. >> okay. thank you. time will tell. appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, inside this morning's big slate of retail earnings. courtney reagan will join us right after the break with a wrap-up. "squawk box" coming right back after this. if you're 60 or older with certain chronic conditions, you're at higher risk of being hospitalized from rsv. and there are no prescription rsv treatments. you know how to protect against covid and flu. so ask your pharmacist or doctor about scheduling pfizer's rsv vaccine, too. because moments like these matter. it's hard to say who'll be more excited on the day after christmas. the guy who got a brand new truck from mom and dad. or the guy who got all the weathertech protection for his truck. like laser measured floorliners... the under seat storage system... no drill mud flaps...

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a big morning for retailer results. courtney reagan is here with all the highlights on what we have been hearing. >> there is so much going on. the earnings call is under way for best buy, dick's sporting goods and abercrombie and fitch. comps up 16%, also raising its full year sales guidance. abercrombie has been a positive retail outlier for a number of consecutive quarters in a row and this one is no exception. dick's sporting goods beating across the board. growing more than 4% for the third straight quarter. it is also the third quarter in a row that dick's increased its guidance. executive chairman and founder ed stack told me investors may think it is conservative, but the retailer is a little concerned about a shorter

holiday season and geopolitical noise impacting consumer sentiment. in light of the new tariff policy, dick's ceo said on the call, there is not much exposure in its supply chain from china, mexico or canada. meantime, on the best buy call, ceo cory berry said around 80% of the cost of goods sold that it sourced last time around we talked about this are from china and still about the same. and mexico is behind that. best buy's quarter fell well short of estimates and shares under pressure here. on the call, she said she's encouraged by early holiday results saying for the first three weeks of november, sales are up 5%. she said best buy is managing what it can control and what remains of the environment. kohl's disappointing with sales down much further than estimated, negative 9.3%. its shares under pressure by 18%. its ceo calling out weakness in clothing and shoes for the quarter. kohl's did announce that ceo tom

kingsbury will be taking over. and ashley buchanan steps in, spent about 13 years at walmart and sam's club. that call starts at 9:00 a.m., more color on the quarter. but not a lot to love in the kohl's report this morning. >> definitely not. i'm trying to get a feel for what the holiday shopping season looks like. you said that kohl's was talking about the first three weeks of november being -- >> best buy was talking about the -- >> best buy, saying that, we heard the same thing from macy's yesterday, maybe the november comps were better. that could be trying to put a highlight on, you know, digging around for a pony somewhere in the middle of all that. what are you hearing from other retailers too? >> i think everyone is just worried about the lumpiness of the holiday season with this short five days and they think we're going to seat surge in the middle -- the beginning rather and then around this week, right now, when we have this black friday and potential quietness and big surge at the end. there is a lot of caution around, yes, things might be bumping up now, but --

>> we're not sure where to hang our hat. >> that's what the cfo of best buy was talking about on the call just now. it is only 20% of the quarter those first three weeks. >> courtney, thank you very much. let's take a quick look at the markets before we hand things over to "squawk on the street." the dow futures under pressure, down by may be pressuring the dow right now. the nasdaq up by 72. that does it for us today. we'll see you back here tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning. wp to "squawk on the street" pem carl quintanilla and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures are mixed this morning and so is the reaction to retail earnings and the president-elect's announcement he'll impose import tariffs on america's three largest trading partners. 10-year yield higher, below 4.3. road map begins with the dow and s&p tracking for their best year since 2021 and retailers are crossing the