it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc headquarters, welcome to "worldwide exchange." the anxiousness over potential tariff eases stocks as they move back into record territory. the pce report, one of the most report ahead of the fed's next decision and president trump with a key pick in his economic team and tracking a del l

selloff. you are watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. good morning. thank you so much for being here with us. i am frank holland. let's get you ready for the day ahead. the dow and s&p trading at record highs. take a look, in the red across the board. the dow looked like it would open up 30 lower and the nasdaq down points. take a look at yields right now. we are starting with the benchmark at 4.26. easing back a few basis points from yesterday. the fed minutes likely a factor. the fed indicate another cut is likely. 4.21.

pce report, economists expect sharper increases year over year after the latest fed minutes show the fed anticipates lowering interest rates gradually. the next decision coming up on february 18th. the majority of traders expecting another quarter cut rate cut. we have to look at bitcoin. trading at 93,450. all right. that is your morning monday set up. let's see how europe is shaping up. sylvia, good morning. >> good morning, frank. so far we are seeing a lot of is she on european equities.

trade conflicts and changes to fiscal and monetary policies. this morning we heard from one of the members that say there is limited room for rate cuts. that is a surprising comment. one analyst suggested we could see parity in the trade but that we shouldn't read too much into the comments. we are getting new inflation data from the zone later this week. >> busy day shaping back up on wall street. shares of dell. they are under pressure after the company's fourth quarter sales came in below analysts expectations despite positive comments around ai sales growth

and revenue falling short. shares of dell down 12%. shares of workday slipping. fiscal fourth quarter margins and subscription revenues missed slightly. workday shares down 10%. shares of ambarella taking off over 24%. the company says fourth quarter revenue will come in $76 to $80 million easily beating expectations. we are watching the manager markets. the permanent cease-fire between israel and hezbollah going into effect. dan, good morning. >> frank, good morning to you. crude in focus with two big

stories developing in the middle east. oil prices holding steady around $70 a barrel after news broke about the u.s.-brokered cease-fire deal. this deal will see israeli troops withdraw from lebanon and hezbollah forces moving away from the israeli border essentially ending months of bombing and bloodshed. president biden saying the deal is designed to be permanent, but also is very fragile. benjamin netanyahu saying israel reserves the right to act against any threat. perhaps investors breathing a sigh of relief. is it enough for opec to sign

off on another delay. reports suggest they may push back on january's output. we are seeing oil prices pretty stable at this point, but perhaps not where the countries would like. what happens out of the opec meeting remains to be seen, and it seems to be this could have a serious impact on deliberations frank. >> thank you very much. now to the trump transition and a developing story. the president-elect naming long time advisor kevin hasset to lead the national economic council and jamieson greer.

greer will be on the front line and a possible 25% tariff on all goods from mexico and canada and 10% tariff on chinese imports. wall street is getting a lot of economic data ahead of the holiday. jobless games, gdp and the inflation report. daily trading volume averaged 7.2 billion a share, but the average before thanksgiving was 6 billion. robert, good morning and good to see you. >> great to see you again. >> robert, we are expecting lower volume and volatility. surprised at all that we are not seeing more anxiousness on wall street? >> yeah. there is a lot of news and there

is a lot of uncertainty. markets seem to have handled it well. that is a recently response looking through to next year. a decent earnings backdrop. the only thing to be concerned about is values. other than that it seems to be solid. i am not too surprised. >> you seem to be the only person worried about the valuations. we are seeing some areas of the market pulling back, and we are seeing unwinding of the trump trade. what do you make of the trump trade overall? do you see it having more legs and continuing beyond the holiday? >> i think we could be in a period of consolidation here. we have digested a lot of news. i don't disagree with the interpretation.

in terms of new catalysts, we are sort of lacking for them. we are in between earnings season. i see the fed continuing to move slowly. i expect a bit of consolidation. >> what about the fed minutes we got yesterday. what was your interpretation? black rock putting out a statement saying fixed income looks more attractive and expecting feds bring the rates down to 4% and then pause. what is your take on that? one more cut and a possible pause or a change in the cycle? >> i think they will be data dependant. as you alluded to earlier, inflation has been slow. it is heading in the right

direction. that is why the fed has been able to begin these tests. it is possible they move 25 and pause if inflation pauses they will pause. it will take time. you will have inflation and rates coming down, you just have to be patient for it to unfold. >> i wrote a story talking to traders and portfolio managers about how to play pce. nvidia, gold man man sachs. are there plays to make ahead of the report if you think it will be hot or cold? >> if it continues to be hot it implies rates will stay higher

longer. you have to not rely on the valuation side but rather the earnings side. perhaps maybe the fed can ease more. we have seen it in the pauft. small caps seem to rally from there. >> yeah. robert, great to see you. thank you very much. >> great to see you. we do have a lot more to come here on "worldwide exchange" including the bullish bets my next guest is making. and digging into food prices ahead of today's big inflation

report. smallcap stock picks. awkward question... is there going to be anything... -left over? -yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. empower. what's next. (vo) this black friday, verizon will turn your old or broken phone into a gift. anyone can trade in any phone, in any condition and get samsung galaxy s24+ with galaxy ai and watch and tab, all three on us. even if your phone is old or dated, you can turn it in at verizon for gifts for you and the family. all three on us.

that's up to $1,900 in value. only on verizon.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." sources telling cnbc openai is letting employees share $1.5

billion of shares in a new offer. they have been pushing for a larger stake in the maker of cha chatgpt. softbank and openai declined to comment. turning our attention back to the day's inflation report. prices have begun to moderate. one trade group says the cost of a holiday feast is lower. thanksgiving meal more than 19% higher than it was in 2019. good morning. great to see you. we are talking about a

thanksgiving meal for ten people. right now it is coming in at $58. what is leading to this? >> as you said while the price of the meal declined year over year we are up 20% from five years ago. they are using the turkey as a price leader to get folks in the stores. it is the price of the turkey. >> we are down 5% year to year. 9% from back in 2022. what areas are we seeing the biggest inflation? >> one of the areas at the

fertilizer institute we need to point out is that we saw a lot of variation in fertilizer. it is about 9% of the total cost for raising the fruits and vegetables and the things that feed the turkey. we have seen a lot of variation over the years. you know, you are seeing the fruits and the vegetables pulling down. you are starting to see a lot of prices moderate over time. the last few years taught us about how much variation there is in the market and how it can quickly finds it way in the price consumers are paying at the grocery stores.

i want to ask you about tariffs and how that could increase the cost of fertilizer. >> absolutely. for food at-large and for fertilizer specifically. when we start to see tweets out of the president talking about putting 25% tariffs on all goods from mexico and canada, that really gets the agriculture community concerned. one thing that gets us concerned is how dependant we are on canada for a lot of our fertilizer needs.

we get a huge portion, 98% of the fertilizer coming in to the united states is from imports and canada is our largest supplier. it can't just always be produced in another place. they are dependant on the resources other countries have. as we see the prices moderate we can look at increasing the volatility in the fertilizer market, and therefore food prices. >> such a big topic for the last election and for everyone that is a consumer now. thanks. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," the brewing battlol capitol hill and what it mns for investors who are heavily

exposed to the financial sector. stay with us. we will be right back.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." turning to washington where a battle is brewing on capitol hill over which lawmaker will lead one of the most powerful committees in the house with a lot of sway over the financial sector. emily, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. a handful of lawmakers are vying to chair the house finance

committee. congressman french hill, andy barr and bill huizenga have thrown their hat in the panels. community banks are a par of barr's proposal. >> we need regional banks to have a different set of capital standards and different set of regulations so they can serve that middle market. we need to allow those banks to partner with fin tech firms so they can compete. >> hill recently released his

make community banking great again plan saying current regulations meant to keep larger banks in check are hurting smaller banks. >> we have allowed this system to be more softly and it has put our industry in peril, competing with the largest companies and national and globally systemic banks. >> a small group of republicans will vote once they are back in town, and we should know the committee's fate by middecember. >> what about any other appointments out there? any other appointments we are expecting to come up on key committees for investors? >> for a couple of different ones. certainly for the finance committee in the senate. we know it will be headed up by

mike crepo. another powerful committee of folks in the finance world. it seems like tim scott will be the one holding the gavel there. in the house taxes of course this year. that means it is the ways and means committee. it does seem like jason smith is set to hold the gavel again. a little less drama, but certainly there is a new group of folks in place to lead congress over the next two years at the least. it will be interesting to see how they work together and what they are able to get done. >> it will be interesting to see how the committees deal with crypto currency. i am sure you are going to have a lot more stories when it comes to this one. as we head to break, we are watching shares of automakers after a very rough tuesday.

taking a look here. this is yesterday's action. knee jerk reaction to the tariff announcement. you can see general motors up. ford up but stellantis down a half percent. into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks,

it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. drop everything and get some magic of your own e*trade ® during the xfinity black friday sale.

xfinity internet customers, our best deals of the year are back! switch to xfinity mobile and get your choice of a free 5g phone, plus your next unlimited line free for a year. get amazing savings and connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go with xfinity mobile. fly don't walk to get our best deals of the year. connect to the world of wicked this holiday, in theaters now.

>> we will drill baby drill. and i will cut your energy prices, all of your energy. gasoline for the house, air conditioning, heating, everything in one year from january 20th. >> that was candidate donald trump on the campaign trail vowing to bring down energy costs in the u.s. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i am frank holland. much more on the potential impact of the tariffs and the risk of new pain at the pump. we want to look at the u.s. stock futures getting you ready for the day ahead. dow and s&p hit another record high tuesday. red across the board. s&p down 11.

dow looks like it would open 45 points lower and the nasdaq just down over 60 points. right there at the top of want list workday down 10% on earnings. autodesk 7%. crowdstrike down 6% and amgen. they released a study about a weight loss drug yesterday and the stock fell hard. checking the bond market. the fed showing the central bank expects to lower interest rates gradually. this morning we are watching oil with upside movement. the permanent cease-fire between israel and hezbollah goes into effect this morning. oil, both up about a third of a

percent, and both also below key levels. last but not least bitcoin, still holding the line. trading at about $93,650. but it is a tough week for the digital currency. that is your morning money set up. two trading days in november, smallcaps, the russell 2000 up. the party, it could be just getting started. of theically the russell 2000 out performs the s&p starting yesterday through early january. let's bring in portfolio analyst

at goldman sachs. >> yeah. you have interesting retail numbers coming in, small cap retailers getting ready for christmas and other things people get ready for. the january effect. part of that is that santa claus rally. >> seems like we are in a whole new regime. do you see it changing in a meaningful way this year? >> you have a much more stable economic environment in 2025 than we prepare to have in 2024. soft landing and hard landing. i think you have a better earnings environment than people were giving you credit for last year. >> i think the last time you were here, not working. even you admitted they have not been working for a couple of

years. the goldman sachs small cap core, you are up over 20% this year. you are out pacing the russell 2000 right there up under 20%. you are 23.5%. what is the difference between this etf and the index? >> we start first with a quality approach. i think that is something people need to do in small caps. in the index there is a lot you don't want to own. there are things that do not need to be in people's portfolios. you start there. you look for companies with strong management teams, better than expected earnings growth,s and we look for catalysts. some of it can be in things like ai or med tech area or kind of very much bottoms up. you have companies looking at significantly better

opportunities in the restaurant space. they are more competitive than they were a year ago. >> one of your holdings is shake shack. now we have to talk about this. one thing people talk about is that small caps trade at a discount and have better earnings. the s&p is 23 times. small caps are 29 times. there is no discount. the other part of the story is high earnings. does that continue to play out with possible tariffs or a pause in interest rates. two things that are fighting or conflicting forces. >> on the earnings side the small caps went into a downward side earlier than the large caps did and people cut numbers and the revisions have come slower. you look to 2025. you see a mid-teens earnings growth for the small caps.

double digits but lower double digits. if you look across what we think of as the quality filter to choose for our portfolio, they do screen a lot cheaper than the rest of small caps. maybe they have a better earnings path or maybe they are just overlooked. i think that area because of the profitability mix towards ours makes it cheaper. >> i want to get into the pce report coming up. how does it impact small caps? some of it is a rate story. the rates have to stay low. how do you see pce?

how does it play out for small caps? >> i think the inflation stuff is something we pay close attention to. i do think that we have seen relief in some areas and especially in food. we are watching the housing related stuff closely. i think that is a part of the story with the new administration that you want to see a degree of relief on the housing side. some things that seem to be coming in more normalized. >> small caps move higher? >> i do think so. >> thanks for being a good sport. we gave you a hard time the last time you were here. come back. and enjoy thanksgiving. coming up, speaking of thanksgiving it will be a record-setting thanksgiving when

it comes to travel. the aiins berle'st position to capitalize as millions take to the air to travel for thanksgiving. we are back in just a moment. at betmgm, everyone gets a welcome offer. so whether you're courtside trying to hit the over... or up here trying to hit the under. whew! or, hitting that win with your crew. ohhh! yes, see defense! or way up here with a same game parlay. yaw! betmgm's got your back. get your welcome offer. and play with the sportsbook born in vegas. all these seats. really? get up to a $1500

new customer offer in bonus bets when you sign up now. betmgm. download and bet today.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." take a look at reagan airport down in the nations capital. the rush is officially on as millions will fly for the thanksgiving holiday with potentially record-setting travel.

leslie joseph joins us with more. are we really expecting a record? feels like we say that every year. will it be good for the airlines. back in 2022 i remember the meltdown with southwest. >> that was a period of extremely high demand met with horrible weather lasting for days. this year the weather looks good for wednesday, today. sunday can be an all-time record for tsa screenings topping 3 million people. demand keeps on climbing. it is more expensive to travel this year than last year. >> which airlines are in the best position to capitalize? i can't imagine everyone benefits the same. >> it depends on the numbers of travelers that we are seeing. big airlines will carry more people. american and united and delta

are expecting record number of travelers, and if not close to those levels. passengers are clearly paying more. you have united and delta that make up the majority of the profits of the sector, more than 80%. they have been having a benefit and better at controlling costs and things like that and getting passengers to pay more to get extra room on the plane. >> here is a big question, delays, cancellations. you say the weather is pretty good, bud t what is the holiday supposed to be like? nothing worse than a long line for tsa and long lines at the counters and you are delayed. >> sometimes it is hard to predict. there is weather in the northeast with winter storms around the country, the middle of the country. the pacific northwest had

terrible weather recently. the airlines have been investing a lot of money making sure you know about it so you are not stuck there and get this rolling delay. >> can we put that misery map back up. translate this misery map. circle around nyc white with green dots. >> some of the airports that are seeing delays. the weather in the middle of the country. you might see delays in other sections as well. so far the delays don't look too bad. we are seeing weather moving in on thanksgiving day and to the northeast. that is already some of the most congested air space we have in the country, bullpen the good thing if you call it a good thing is that thanksgiving day is the lowest demand travel day of the whole period. you have fewer customers to

accommodate. >> green circle is good. >> red means sometimes there is a ground stop. >> last word, are there any deals or any airlines offering deals or consumers are paying top dollar or is there some way to save? >> there are deals out there. the time you needed to travel and go to thanksgiving or wedding or christmas are fewer deals. we are going to a low season for travel. a lot of deals to europe and extra supply into the region. before christmas or before the 18th and 19th and people take off for the rest of the year there are a lot of deals, and the beginning of the year january is a great time to travel. out of the christmas and new years period. it is a really good time to go internationally. >> you got me thinking.

leslie josephs, happy thanksgiving. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to hear, and president-elect trump turning to tariffs to ease prices for the americans, and how the plan uld do more harm than good when it comes to your energy bill. we'll be right back after this. (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street invest in your future with dia, the only etf that tracks the dow. (♪♪) when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking

for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you could have no deductibles or copayments for doctor visits, hospital stays, emergency care and more. you can keep the doctors you have now, ones you know and trust, with no referrals needed. plus, you can get medical care anywhere in the country, even when you're traveling! with humana, you get a competitive monthly premium, and personalized

service, from a healthcare partner working to make healthcare simpler and easier for you. you can choose from a wide range of standardized plans. each one is designed to work seamlessly with medicare and help save you money! so how do you find the plan that's right for you. one that fits your needs and your budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs. so, call now and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. president-elect donald

trump's threat of 25% tariffs on imports from canada and mexico is certainly getting the attention of the energy sector. if the tariffs happen it could have a major effect on everything from fossil fuels to nuclear power. >> good morning. energy markets are global, and especially with our neighbors the supply chains are very much linked. oil, more than half of the u.s. imports are from canada and half of that goes to the midwest and the rocky mountain regions which are pipeline constrained. looking forward two things could happen. either the canadians discount the price of their oil to account for the tariff or u.s. producers raise the price of their oil to import price parity which would drive up prices at the pump. a 25% tariff translates to more

than 40 additional cents of gas. the u.s. uses about 50 million pounds of uranium per year. about a quarter of u.s. uranium comes from canada. if utilities have to buy at a higher price that will likely be passed along to consumers. our nuclear systems are tied together, and that the industry is trying to relaunch itself meaning any wrench in the plan can cause issues with availability and pricing. >> uranium supplies are already tight. utilities, are they going to have enough of that to keep the lights on? >> yes, they will. nuclear is about 20% of the u.s. grid. this is not a just in time

supply chain. long-term it could have big ramifications because russia controls more than 40% of the global uranium enrichment markets. so frank, when you add in the uncertainty of tariffs on canada, it means all of the supply chains put all of that into question. >> all right. have a great thanksgiving. good to see you. coming up, take a look up 14% since the election. this is our mystery start where our guest said the trump bump is ly getting started. we are going to reveal the name after the break. to make it happen, morgan stanley can help create the future only you can see. [crowd cheers] [music out]

♪ ♪ o ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." here is what everybody is watching today. this is the atlanta airport. this is one of the busiest in the nation. have you ever flown through here? i stopped in there before. he says it is the best airport in america. debatable. a lot of economic data is being packed in before traders head out for the holidays, weekly

jobless claims and october durable goods. that is followed by pending home sales, personal spending and the fed's inflation gauge. back to the markets. the dow and s&p finishing at new highs and the s&p extending the winning streak to a lucky number said. all of that helping to offset the terror threat by president-elect trump. matt, good morning. great to have you here. >> frank, good morning. >> what is your word of the day? how do you see things shaping up. yesterday we had fed minutes and the president announcing he wants to put tariffs on mexico, canada, china. >> easily i have to come with a thanksgiving word and gratitude. appreciating what you have got. family time. lessons and mistakes for

investing and the wins we had in investing. >> you are trying to stay grounded right now. let me talk about the expectations when it comes to the fed. fed indicating another cut is coming. how important is that to the markets overall and the rally we are seeing? >> .3% increase and the 12th month the rate has been frozen at 2.7. the latest boost of inflation is hopefully a temporary bump. regardless the fed does not expect to hit the target until 2026. showing signs of being stuck above 2% even though we are making progress. >> sounds like you are anxious about the pce report if you think it will be hot or cold. in your mind do you think it will be hot, cold, in line? how would you play it before or after? >> both ways here.

in line, you know. that is what we expect. you had a small cap manager on. that is the direction we go in. the economy is prime or growth and could lead to upward movement in the russell 2000. top line growth and hopefully lower interest expenses should push caps higher into next year. they don't finance a lot of operations through bank loans so they are somewhat insulated on that end. we saw what they have done and have done throughout the year. that would be the place that i would look. >> some-the traders and financial advisors mentioned amazon and tjx with the thought if we get a hotter than expected report consumer spending is strong and consumer is strong going into the holiday. is that proof a hot inflation report is not necessarily back.

>> end of next year is the target. we have plenty of time. i don't think it is a rush to get to the number. tj maxx. the retail side. it is a holding we own in our dividend growth. >> m&t bank. you believe it has more room to run. does that go along with getting rate cuts coming forward? >> yeah. that the is part of it. rates are part of it. we are optimistic about fewer regulations and potential merger activity. regionals are trading at an attractive valuation relative to the overall sector with strong dividend yields across the board and it is not the reason for

m&t. the second largest regional banks and it had a run and is up 65% year to date. that is one thing to look at. the earnings growth year to year is 15% and 2/3 comes from the net income. they have a really conservative book of real estate book, primarily in new york. >> the dividend of 2.5% and yields could go down? >> i say it all of the time. dividend growth firms, you know, yeah. of course. the regional banks that are extremely strong on dividends they have increased it. 40% payout ratio. there is a lot of room. yes. >> your pick for us today m&t

bank. matt powers, great to see you. have a great thanksgiving. >> good to see you. >> a few of the big stories we are following this morning. sources are telling cnbc openai is leading employees share about $1.5 billion of shares to softbank who has been pushing for a larger share in the company. softbank and openai declined to comment. president-elect trump tapping kevin hasset and jamieson greer to be his trade representative. dell's earning forecast came in below expectations. third quarter numbers came in mixed with revenue falling short. similar story for crowdstrike. shares are falling after a disappointing fourth quarter

outlook but actually beat estimates. shares are down over 6%. urban outfitters shares are moving higher topping expectations thanks in part to the strength in the anthropologie brand. that will do it for us here at "worldwide exchange." i hope you have a great thanksgiving. "squawk box" right now. >> good morning. we have a lot on tap here on "squawk box" this morning. the israel/hezbollah cease-fire has officially begun. we are in a much better place than we were before, and we are going to talk about it. we are learning exactly what happened last night and how it was brokered over the last month.

meantime president-elect trump names more picks for key roles in his administration including frequent "squawk box" guest. it is bank. it is wednesday, november 27th november 27th, 2024. squall boxes begins right now. good morning. and welcome to squawk box. joe is off today. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. not a lot to look at right now h modest declines. and the s&p 500 down by 55