names more picks for key roles in his administration including frequent "squawk box" guest. it is bank. it is wednesday, november 27th november 27th, 2024. squall boxes begins right now. good morning. and welcome to squawk box. joe is off today. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. not a lot to look at right now h modest declines. and the s&p 500 down by 55. that comes after the dow and

the s&p 500 rose to record highs again in yesterday's section. so a little stronger gains for the nasdaq and the s&p 500 yesterday. you can take a look at treasury yields this morning. we have seen this treasury yield move lower over the last week or so. that as the new treasury secretary was nominated by president-elect donald trump. you see the market at 426 and let's take a look at the price of bic coin this morning. after climbing to nearly a hundred thousand dollars for the first time, you can see that bitcoin is just down. one contact the lift from the move was the minutes from the recent fed meetings. they showed that the confidence is easing and the labor market is strong. that would allow for further

interest rate cuts. and policymakers are saying it would be appropriate no reduce policy restraint gradually. president-elect donald trump announcing a truce from at the time white house yesterday. take a look. >> hezbollah terrorist in southern lebanon will not be allowed to it be rebuilt. and the next 60 days, srael will gradually withdraw the forces. civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities. >> to israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu they had allow the country to focus on

the iranian threat and complete the elimination of hamas and the return of residents. look at the price of crude prices right now. that is something that we'll keep our eyes on this morning. and in the 8:00 hour, we'll be speaking with the white house's envoy, what is being credited with leading the ceasefire talks, that have been taking place for some time. and let's move to the trump transition. president-elect donald trump announcing some key roles for his mechanic team, including a familiar face. he has a lot more on the story this morning. >> reporter: that's right. kevin hasset has been on the on the box more often that i have.

but he will be donald trump's solution for the national director. he is a well-liked figure. he lead the council of the economic advisers. and now heeding heading to the big shop, that gets a west wing office. he's somebody that is a convert to trump economics. but he's also somebody who has a foot in the traditional economics. so i think he'll be somebody that will be welcomed by wall street as sort of an establishment voice, so to speak, inside the trump white house. the other figure named last night is jamison grier, who the president-elect said will be his u.s. trade representative that is an interesting selection. he was a chief of staff as u.s. trade representative in the first trump administration. now he'll be serving as the trade representative in the second trump administration.

he's a lawyer. but he's viewed as very pro tariff and will execute the trump agenda, clearly. but now it is setting up the interesting dynamic where you have the u.s. trade representative as the former chief of staff. the chief of staff said that harry lutnick will be overseeing the trade. so it is not sure if they have report to lutnick. by law, he reports to the president and congress. so a little unclear who is in charge of the trade agenda and it ands up a question what happens to robert lighthouser. a key economic adviser to donald trump when trump was out of office and u.s. trade representative in the first truck term. what role does trump envision him having in the second term. all of that now is sort of up for grabs as a lot of economic jobs in the including the

treasure secretary. all the job have been designated to other people. >> the other question that i had was, you look at kevin hasset, who we've known a long time and wall street loves kevin hasset. and wall street really likes scott. they have more moderate view, if you will, about some of the economic policy around tariffs and things like that. if you think that there is going to be a clash -- relatively moderate, relative to trade moderate. but not necessarily to wall street. >> yes. in in terms of the harry lutnick and lighthouser would be, they have made comments at goldman sachs, because they put a report together, saying that he didn't think that the tariffs will be put on necessarily the way they were

described in the campaign. how do you think they manifest themselves or do they knock into each other. >> i think they start to knock into each other inside the trump world. if you're looking to read the tea leaves here. you would position this as the triumph of the trump moderates with hasset getting national economic council and treasure secretary. those are people that no doubt advocates of the trump trade agenda. seen by wall street as more moderate. and they are the ones taking the very powerful jobs. that said, there was the wiggle room where he was clear lit leading choice to get treasury and didn't get it for like a week, week and a half period of time where there were people inside trump world were rguing that he was infishly inefficiently commit the.

he indicated that the tariffs would be phased in and rolled out in a staggered basis, not something that would happen immediately. and you saw trump this week, i'm putting tariffs on canada, china mexico in a big way, right away, on day one. those things are add odds with each other, to some degree. i think he was age to explain to the president-elect donald trump, that he is committed to the agenda. he went on a mini publicity tour. so all the people have pledged that they are committed to the trump agenda. the uestion is how committed. are there cross cutting forces inside the administration. i think clearly there will be. >> looking at wall street's reaction. they have taken all of this in stride. there has not been any serious pull back or concern with the

markets. even what president-elect donald trump has rolled out at this point, the idea of 25% tariffs that would take place with mexico and canada on day one, the idea of 10% from china, if they don't try to cooperate the top of fentanyl from mexico up to here. there were responses that came from the mexican president, the canadian prime minister. it sounds like it is and negotiation that is underplay. that sound like what scott bessent laid out. >> it sure does. >> i don't look at the announcement the truth social laying this for the hard ways will necessarily happen or stay in place through the course of trump's presidency. it sounded like a negotiation. >> thing that is the right way to read it. clearly the president president is trying to bring mexico and canada to the table for a renegotiation with the trade deal that he did in 2020.

that is up for renegotiation in 2026. he thinks that he can get better terms this time than he did in 2020 and forcing them to to the table. and we'll see in that works. if you can get them putting restrictions on u.s. goods that could backfire in a way. but the president-elect donald trump is saying, i'm going signal the tariffs are coming and see what i can get at the negotiating table. for bessent and hasset, that is probably where they want him to be, to get the u.s. national interest taken care of, but not necessarily experiencing the downside of getting them in. wall street took it with a grain of salt. but the goal was transparently unattainable. if you're going to have the governments eliminate fentanyl coming into the united states

seems highly unrealistic. if that is your bar. >> if it is zero -- >> you may not get there. >> if you're making strides to stop the illegal immigration at borders and the drug trade, to me, that is what it read like. i read it, if you can show that you're making strides on it it maybe the tariffs will either come down or be wiped away. >> yes. is not clear exactly where the bar is. but he's talking about the elimination of migration and fentanyl coming in the united states. those are tricky to achieve, of course. and it is not clear at what point would trump take the tariffs off. if he believes that the tariffs are a good thing for the u.s. economic policy, which he clearly does, and a good thing for rebuilding the american manufacturing and the heartland. all of them are trump priorities. if you achieve this huge goal, you're still going to want to have the tariffs in place.

that is your agenda. that is what you think is important to rebuild the american economy. he set up the tension between the two goals that he has, where if he achieves one, he cannot have the other, necessarily. and it seems clear that trump will want the tariffs till he sees the u.s. us manufacturing being rebuilt in some significant way, which could be years off in the future, whatever happens with fentanyl and migration. >> it is a longer conversation. we'll have three hours to talk about it. thank you for joining us so early this morning. >> you bet. when we come back, we have key economic data ahead. we'll be getting jobless claims, durable goods and a key read on inflation, a lot of data ahead of thanksgiving holiday. we wanted to get all of this out there ahead of time. and we'll be here for it and the expectations next. some earnings are a little

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that includes the personal income expenditures and the number that the fed looks at so closely that is their preferred gauge of inflation. the dow jones industrial averages are off by 45, s&p 500 down by 12 and nasdaq off by 70. we have the chief investment officer and a cnbc contributor. why don't we start off by talking about the economy and the fed and their positioning in all of this. we're going to get some numbers today. we're at this weird point, the fed senior cutting rates. and now it sounds like they are slowing down and they could be getting pressure on the other side of things. where do you think we stand right now? what is the fed to do at this point? what does the economy look like you to? >> a see a two lane economy. the fast lane, you have the upper income consumer, benefiting from having a job

and high stock prices and high home prices and everything to a.i. spend and anything related to government spending. in the slow lane, you have the low and middle income consumers struggling. you have manufacturing in a recession. and home sales at 30 year lows and all the activities that take place around the transaction of the house. you have global trade that is muted. on the labor side, you have the pace of firings that is muted and the pace of hiring is slowing. but they keep talking about being restrictive. they're restrictive in you're in commercial real estate, and a small or medium side business or trying to buy a house there say party going on in the markets. they are the opposite of restrict when it comes to that this how they balance that? don't cut the rates in december. take a timeout.

they can always cut again in january. >> is the lesson there, that you need to be a cold and callous fed. if you look at the small and medium size businesses, that is where the bulk of hiring is in the nation. if you look at low and middle income consumers they are feeling this. and the first-time home buyers are trying desperately to get into if the market. are those problem that's the fed cannot fix? >> they should have learned in september when the loan rates went up, they are not in control of the entire curve. hope the long rates follow. but that is not what happened. so i think that if you're an owner of the ten year treasury, you want the fed to be hawkish. you don't want them to lose the inflation fight, which they seem to be winning right now h they have to be careful to take at the time message that the

market sent after that 50 basis point cut. >> treasury market. we've seen it go up ever since they started going up. >> and powell, at the last press conference when he was asked about the rate move in response to the rate cuts, he was so dismissive. i don't think he should be dismissive. >> could they shrink the balance sheet and interest any impact on this? >> the qt and the bank of england and the bank of canada, they have all been doing. but from the liquidity stand point, it has not had that much of an impact because the markets are doing fine. do we cross that where the liquidity starts to drain? i think that is possible, especially doj is shrinking the size of their purchases. what did the balance sheet stop shrinking? when is enough enough? they don't know. powell said we'll know it when

we see it. but that may only happen -- similar to 2019, it was only there was a chaos in the market that they finally stopped shrinking it. it is something to pay attention to even though no one really cares about it right now. >> how important are the numbers today? is this a passing moment where we're still looking at broader issues trying to figure out what the new incoming trump administration is going to do? >> the fed should wait to see what the policy shows. but the payroll number they'll get before the december meeting will come into the calculus. the market is 50/50 if they cut in december. i think they will. luckily, they meet every six

weeks. graduate was in the midst. but i think they should do that they don't like to disappoint the markets. if it is greater than 50, they will not take a pause. >> the party in the equity markets, why is that? and how does it make sense to you? >> positively, they have discovered there is not just 7 stocks in the stock market. that transition happened in july when the investors started to trade out the a.i. trade. we need to see show me the money in returns on this this and all the sudden the markets started to say, hey there, are other stocks to buy, which is what we have seen, and that is a good thing them. the party is going on because the fed thing they are on the

side. and trump will bring to at the time mark. credit spreads are tight. everyone believes in the soft landing and everything is going to be fine. but the s&p 500 is trading 23 forward. >> we're above 6,000. >> we traded 23 times in march of 2000. that rubber band is getting stretch and the interest rates are staying high. we have to see if it plays out. >> in march of 2000 they were crazy evaluations with companies that have no earnings. they have staying power. but your point is doesn't matter when you get stretched to the levels? >> evaluates don't matter till they do. i think the tenure is going back to 5% at some point next year. that it will be a test for the multiples. but they are concentrated on the biggest names. luckily there is value in other

parts of the market. >> so you're telling people to be choosey. >> i'm trying to find other parts of the value that is not trading like other parts of the market like oil and gas and agricultural and even gold mining stocks that sort of have been out of this party that is taking place in other parts of the market. >> peter, thank you for coming. >> thanks. we got a lot more. we have a lot more coming up on "squawk box." we'll hearing that starbucks corporate are only going to get about 60% of their bonuses. yodou n't want to go anywhere. state right here on "squawk box" on this wednesday ahead of thanksgiving.

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. welcome back. we have learned that open a.i. is aloughing employees to sell 1 and a half billion dollars of shares in a new tender offer to shot of bank. that allows them to a larger stick in the a.i. startup and allows employees to cash out their shares. sources tell cnbc, soft bank ceo was persistent in asking for a larger stake in the startup after investing half a billion dollars the last funding round. kate rooney broke the story. and she'll join us on the 8:00

story. >> it is interesting. if you're running a company like this, that you would want to allow your employees to get out or sell some shares at these remarkable evaluations. but there is part of that you may want to keep your employees in this. a lot of employees were able to sell over the time. i wonder whats that done? it shifted the game of ever having to go public, frankly. >> yes, you cannot keep your employees waiting forever for these things. who were we speaking to last week and someone was talking about how his biggest concern was the idea that the employees there have made so much money on their shares, that they don't have to stick around. finding talent is the hardest thing to do and keeping that talent in place, which is an interesting perspective on this you watched it with amazon and microsoft along the way.

if you can get out of the market, you really only hold on to the employees that are doing this because they love it. >> that's right. that is the good news. but in the old days, and maybe i'm wrong, i think the folks that had to wait till the company went public to get out. so there was the insensitive to stay. maybe that was the wrong insensitive. >> and bad news for the shareholders that just buy in at the opening. you got a whole base of employees waiting around, as soon as the ipo takes place and they can sell their stock at some point, they're all out the door. maybe it is april way to weed out the people that are in it for the love of it and just for the money. would you stay if you didn't need to, if you didn't need the money? >> that is a good question. a similar question, but in a different way that gets us to

the next story this morning. many store buck corporate employees are only going to get 60% of their bonuses due to the coffee chain's poor performance. the weaker than expected results dragging down the overall payout for many workers that met their personal goals. so it is interesting. on one side, you are meeting your person goal and the other side the company doesn't. and the senior executives and the executive management team will not be getting what is called merit raises but workers in other positions will. that will create interesting dynamics when things are not going. >> that is the way it is supposed to work, though. if you're offered bonuses on the company doing well that is aligned with the shareholders. if the shareholders don't do well, you're not going to either. some people look at bonuses as

an automatic. bonuses are there for a reason and it had to be tide for incentives. bonuses, the way most of them are tide, especially for upper executives, is the performance that ties them to the shareholders. >> yes. the upper executives, no question. what is the ratio -- sometimes stay third, a third, a third, a third. it is like the personal performance and the unit's performance and the company's performance. a bunch of way to do it. it is an interesting development. and hopefully nickle will turn around and there will be a better performance for starbucks folks. the white house committee is heating up. we'll take you live to washington. "squawk box" will be right

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good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. let's show you the futures ahead of some key economic data points that we'll get later this morning. we're about 34 points off right now on the dow jones industrial average. nasdaq down 67 points and the s&p 500 down 11 points. let's get to washington right now. let's go to washington d.c. right now where the battle to lead a key house panel is heating up. emily wilkins joins right now. >> reporter: you have four republicans that are competing to lead the house panel that oversees the monetary policy, the house financial services. but no matter who gets the gavel, the real winner is shaping up to be the banks.

air running to lead the services committee. but for those i've talked with said that hill and barr are considered the front runners. both have put out the pledges to focus on banks, specifically regional banks. hill was ceo of delta trust before coming to congress. he released his make community banking great again plan to keep larger banks in check is hurting the smaller banks. >> west economy of overregulations in the financial specter. leave us with fewer community banks and more wealth concentrated in the bigger companies in the world in banking. >> reporter: barr is focused on banks in his sweeping dream american dream proposal. >> we need to unleash our capitol markets to restore the american dream to give

americans access to affordable homeownership and entrepreneurs access to the seed capital to start a business on main street. >> reporter: the decision will ultimately come down to a small group of republican leaders who are going to be voting on the next chair of who could run the committee for the next up to six years. >> so if this is good news for the regional banks, either way, have the stocks reacting and kind? is this something that is seen a big, important deal for him in the next six years? >> for sure it will depend on who will get the gavel, to the certain extent. there a lot of confidence that it will be barr. but nothing is final till it is final. but this is congress. but it always means something if one of the committees has a priority they want to get through. is something like this going to be be able to take priority as republicans deal with the

number of other things on their plate. they have the debt ceiling gait coming up in january. they may have to deal with government funding next year as william. and they have the reconciliation package, the one that is tax and energy and border security into. so i think for the long-term outlook, this could be a positive thing. but i think in the short-term, the republicans have a lot on the to-do list for the leadership. it may be tough for the committee, if you look overall, it doesn't quite make the top priority list. >> thank you. emily wilkins. coming up, the president of mexico is saying that president- elect donald trump's tariff proposals will lead to retaliatory measures that will hurt consumers in both countries. we will talk about the ceasefire negotiation between hezbollah and israel for a

month. the ceasefire took affect overnight. we'll talk about it on "squawk box" after this.

welcome back to "squawk box." mexico is pushing back on president-elect donald trump tariff threats. they could retaliate of tariffs on their own now and putting risks on both sides of the border, most notably the auto market. and we have the former acting chair of economic advisers to the trump administration. he's now a professor at the university of chicago. i want to thank you for joining us. i'll start with you, joel. you put out a tweet, i think

you might have deleted. but you seem very concerned about it. i want to try to understand exactly what your concerns are at this point. >> good morning. the big concern is that tariffs are taxes. we know that at the end of the day, it is businesses and families in the united states that bare the cost of tariffs. and canada and mexico are two would have our biggest trading partners. we have a longstanding relationship on free trade thanks to nafta. we have seen an economic boom since nafta was passed, real family incomes have raised by $28,000 per year and our total manufacturing is up 40% during those four decades of free trade. if we actually did see a 25% universal tariff placed n the imports from canada and mexico, just on those two countries alone that would result of 15

hundreds of year after annual taxes on american families. a lot of us don't think of all the products that we get he from mexico. if you look at the top ten lists like beer, tequila, tomatoes, avocados, blueberries and raspberries. i ran the numbers just on the beer component because beer is on the tom ten list. a 25% on the beer alone that is about $20 extra a year per family. this it will be a tough burden for families to bare after four years of biden-omics. >> if this would go in effect and economic affect. but some markets don't believe it is going to happen. otherwise it would have moved in a different direction, no? >> i think the markets are

smarter. we're going to use our economic leverage over these countries to fix a crisis where hundreds of thousands of people are dying essentially, where the alternatives have not worked in the past. and way to think about this more accurately is think of the an analogy when you think of regular wars like trade wars. we have a stick that we can impose on countries. but ideally we don't use the stick like we don't use our nuclear weapons. but people know we have nuclear weapons and stay peaceful. they rely on us way more than we rely on them. so not, the key is to think of this not a threat that is not used that is what happened with the french wine tariffs on the

in the first trump administration that made on that. >> we heard from the mexican president yesterday that there are caravans coming. i don't know if you believe her or not. she would tell you, as the numbers would suggest, that the number of illegal immigrants coming in the country in this past year compared to the year before has gone down. i'm not here to suggest that we don't have a problem. i believe a problem still exists. the question is what kind of leverage do you believe that mexico and canada can push on and how quickly they can do that to satisfy whatever you think would prevent these tariffs from actually taking place? >> we have not done that in the

past. we need to fall in line with the threat of that pressure, essentially. and the immigration policies that we instituted in the first administration was obviously abandoned by the regulations and abandoned by the biden administration and the immigration was not enforced at all and the countries took advantage of that and we have a big stick, if you don't fall in line, here's is something that we can do. the ultimate goal is to not use them like any peace or strength or argument. don't use it, but have the stick. >> joel, can i ask, what was your tweet? and why did you take it down? >> well, my focus has been on the danger of tariffs overall and how american families are impacted. i tried to be cautious and how i phrase all of that this is a politically -- it has become

a political football in many ways. the american family has are still suffering from the tariffs put in place in 2019 under the last administration that were continued by president biden that is aluminum and steal. refrigerators. >> what did you say? i get you got a blow-back. i get you took it back. what was the blow-back. it must have been significant for you to take it down. >> i think there is a discussion about what role congress has to play and the president has a lot of power during the trade ability in 1940 that was given to the president by congress. it was a delegation of constitutional duties but there is a debate in congress if they you this impose by the

president should be restricted. bottom line tariff is regress siv taxes taxes. >> this is the tweet that was deleted. i want you to react to directly. congress should act now to deny the incoming president the power to impose massive tax hikes on american families and businesses next year. so you're arguing that congress should put in place a law that would prevent the incoming president from using executive actions in this regard? is that what the original tweet seems to suggest? are you agreeing or disagree with what you wrote? >> this proposal has been put in place recently by ran paul. we need to look at why this is

necessary. in the 1970s as we were liberalizing -- they wanted free trade, but they didn't want to impact the local industries. so congress delicated to power under sections of that trade ac, the power to act on tariffs on his own. the goal of congress was to lower tariffs. but now we have seen president after president use the powers under the trade act to act without express congressional permission to impose new tariffs. i believe it is time for congress to reconsider whether or not they want to delegating their constitutional power to tax to the president. it is time for president to reassert itself, not just this issue but many issues in which the executive branch that be crafting regulations over our businesses. in this instances, where the president now has the power to impose new taxes. >> guys, joel and thomas, i want to thank you and return

you a happy thanksgiving. i imagine this debate will not be going anywhere soon. thanks. >> we'll do it all over again. coming up in the next hour, it it is annual thanksgiving favorite. and we'll get turkey tips and the cook from frozen turkeys for the procrastinators that reve not thawed out the bird ye he's a hint. if you have not, you're too late. you have to watch interview. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk

box." next wednesday, december 4 being he will be in new york city and we'll bring you live on cnbc throughout the day. a huge lineup of biggests, including alphabet ceo will be talking and the a.i. cofounder sam atmanned. and jay powell will be here to discussion on unions happening. and we have the tennis legend the entrepreneur, the goat, serena williams, will talk about what happened this election and what will happen later with former president bill clinton. and amazon and blue origin founder, jeff bezos will be enjoining us. and alice cooper, the biggest podcaster in the country. and prince harry will be joining us. and we will be talking to ken

griffin, probably the most important person in the world of finance in the marks right now. and the gop with louie ceo and david ricks. we have all of that coming to you on cnbc throughout the day and hope to bring you a lot of live and big headlines that will be coming out of it. andrew, that is an amazing lineup. i cannot say i'm surprised. we expect that with you with deal book. a heard a conversation recently from ken griffith. i think his tariffs i would like to hear more about and how this makes american companies less competitive, if they're protected too much of an extent. is it the crazy balance that i've been kicking around and around in my head when i first heard mentions of these things it's. if we're not on even playing

ground to begin, how do you that? how do you unleach unleash company capital? i'm not sure which side i'm coming done on. capitalism works. but watch what happens in this country in the last several years, being hollowed and the manufacturing in the -- to that hallowed out and having that with the labor discussions will be fascinating to watch. >> i will bring in the question. i promise that you is on the list. i think a similar conversation could happen with bill clinton, who was, for open borders and talk about nafta. >> what does he thinks all these decades later. >> 20 some years later to graple with the issues. there will be a lot of topics

on the table. >> it will be amazing. looking forward to it. >> i'm criming. when we come back, we're maintaining a busy family schedule, especially down. especially with the holiday season. we have someone with the challenge with the help, are you ready for this? with a.i. we'll explain that after this.

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♪ welcome back to "squawk box." it is now just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk" here on

cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin. along with becky quick. joe is off today. a number of big stories to tell you about. president-elect trump rounding out his economic team naming long-time adviser and well someone you know well on this show, kevin hassett to lead the national economic council. trump also tapping trade attorney jamieson greer to be his u.s. trade representative. meantime sources telling cnbc that openai is letting employees sell about $1.5 billion worth of shares to softbank in a new tender offer. softbank's ceo masa son has been pushing since investing in its latest funding round. they have declined to comment on that report. a cease-fire between israel and iran-backed hezbollah took effect earlier this morning following a year-long conflict. president biden announcing that truce from the white house yesterday. we're going to keep our eyes on that and the price of oil and everything else this morning. becky? >> thanks. let's take a look at the futures

very quickly. they're not doing a whole heck of a lot this morning. you can see some red arrows. these are ploddest declines. dow off, the s&p off by 10. after the dow and s&p set another new record yesterday. the nasdaq indicated down by just over 60 points. let's get over to dom chu. he's got a look at this morning's premarket movers. maybe this is the calm before the storm? or at least trying to figure out which way to go with all the data we're going to be getting later this morning at 8:30. >> i think it's 20 plus pieces of data coming out over the course of the morning. everybody moved everything up to the wednesday time frame there. we have potential catalyst. remains to be seen if they jostle things around. friday the half-day limited liquidity so we'll keep an eye on whether or not these movements happen ahead of the holiday shortened trading session. the movers side of things with a check on bitcoin. crypto currency is a key focus here. we've seen a lot of movement since the election specifically in bitcoin prices. currently seeing right above the 93,000 mark.

a pull back by more than 4% yesterday falling below the 91,000 mark at one point. traders have been watching to see if that crypto currency could hit that hundred thousand mark. we came very close. prices climbed above the 99,000 level for the first time last week but the rally seems to have stalled out of it ahead of the six-figure milestone. at 93,352. a couple earnings movers to take a look at as well. dell shares tumbling by 11.5% or so after posting a revenue miss for the third quarter and the company also issued current quarter revenue guidance lighter than wall street expectations. dell's coo noted the growth from ai will change from quarter to quarter and the business growth will not be linear. dell technologies down 11.5%. shares of nordstrom are higher up by 1.5% or so after reporting revenue growth of about 4% year over year beating analyst expectations. the clothing retailer also issued a modest full-year sales

forecast. the ceo cited declining sales trends toward the end of october that factored into its holiday expectations. still a 1.5% gain. we'll end with a look of an analyst note coming out of dick's sporting goods, after ubs upgraded that stock to a buy rating and the firm raised its target price to 260 from 225. the company's risk-reward is skewed to the upside at this point. ubs expects dick's to generate sustainable earnings growth with an estimated 8% earnings growth over the next five years. dick's on the heels of earnings doing well. more on other key calls of the day head over to cnbc.com/pro. subscribers get full access to the detail and analysis behind those calls. with that, i'll send things back over to you guys. >> dom, thank you very much. we will check in just a little later this morning. meantime, we got weekly mortgage numbers just coming out as we speak. let me get straight over to

diana olick who joins us with more on that. >> well, andrew, mortgage rates dropped last week and home buyers jumped off the fence. the average rate on the 30-year fixed for conforming loan balances dropped to 6.86% from 6.9% for loans with 20% down. not exactly a huge drop, but there was a fair amount of pent up demand among home buyers. some were waiting until after the election. some for lower rates. some for more supply. all of those are now done. so applications for a mortgage to purchase a home jumped 12% from the previous week and were 52% higher than the same week a year ago. last year at this time mortgage rates were higher but the supply of homes for sale with lien has eased up lately. the buyers are going bigger with the average purchase loan size at $439,200. its highest level in almost a month. applications to refinance a home loan dropped 3% for the week but were 119% higher than a same week a year ago.

the annual comparison are glitchy because thanksgiving was a week earlier last year so that messes with the comparison. mortgage rates are slightly lower to start this week but we have a fair amount of economic data coming out today which could move them in either direction again. back to you guys. >> okay. diana, thank you so much. meantime as families navigate busy schedules this holiday season, some are going digital now using a touchscreen calendar with an ai family assistance to stay organized. i have to say, by the way, not a product of endorsement per se. i use this product. i bought it myself. but it's the old situation people used to put their calendars and everything on the refrigerator. this has gone digital. michael siegel, founder and ceo of skylight, a company with a new feature, has ai to help scheduling meal prep, to-do lists. do you put stuff on the refrigerator? >> i have a bigger calendar on

the wall. like a whiteboard on the wall thing and i will say i haven't bought this yet, but i have had people tell me to get this, and say it's pretty life-change. i've looked into it. >> thank you. >> michael, it's nice to see you. explain what this is as i think i tried to explain, people used to put their calendar on a refrigerator using magnets and big calendars and writing it and now, we've all gone digital. my whole family, we are on gmail with our calendar but it all integrates into this thing like a frame and we keep it in our kitchen and everybody can kind of see what everybody is supposed to be doing or where everybody is supposed to be at any one moment. >> thank you so much for having me. you did my job for me that's exactly what we are. big picture we want to be the operating system that a family uses to stay on track. the epidemic of mental load is substantial for most families today. 30 plus hours on average that

they're spending just trying to keep the wheels on the bus. >> and overscheduling on all of our parts. >> yes. it's intense. we've done market studies it affects people's psychology top to bottom, relationship with their kids. we're trying to step in and do everything to take the temperature and mental load down, shared family calendar, chores and to do the kids love to tap because it's an interactive display. meal planning we've gone into and now as you mentioned we are going into some ai features. another tool we love to use to bring value and save our family's time. >> okay. >> i take it each color block. >> go ahead, becky. >> as somebody who hasn't done it yet, again, i've looked at it, i take it each color block identifies a different kid or member of the family to see what color exactly what they're doing. everybody can use this for their

phones. >> people go crazy for the color coding. >> so, michael, one of the things, though -- and -- one of the things is, people want their time back, right. we're almost -- to becky's point we're overscheduled. do you think that this device -- i thought about this recently because i was looking at ours -- whether you think we're almost overscheduled like almost trying to fill up all of the empty white spaces whereas, you know, i would say, i remember many years ago, i think warren buffet might have been on our broadcast where he talked about having a calendar with nothing on it, the greatest luxury in life is to have nothing on the calendar. >> yeah. i think, look it comes from a deeply good place. people are very passionate about raising great kids, giving all their -- the kids all the experiences they might not have had when they were younger. it comes from a wonderful place of parenting. unfortunately, it gets very intense and in our surveys over

half of people say the logistics of just planning it all overshadows the amount of quality time they're getting with the family which is totally upside down. we would love to make it our company's mission to reverse that and just let you have more of the high-quality moments and raise good -- >> i do spend a lot of time scheduling. how does this make it easier for me if i get three different basket schedules and, you know, different therapists and different things that are like -- physical therapist or different things that have to be filtered into this, i still have to be the administrator who puts all the data in, right? >> yes, and no. it syncs automatically. if it's on your calendar -- >> i have to put it on some calendar somewhere. >> with our new ai sidekick feature it will automatically do it. the light of long pdfs families get with the school and sports schedules we will in seconds just put that all on your

calendar. >> that's pretty cool . >> that's hours a week. >> i think ai is where we can move from just getting the whole family more on track taking the temperature down, resolving conflicts of who is doing what to reducing hours per week or month the amount of time your spend aing on this stuff. think about meal planning. that takes a lot of time just putting food on the table. so -- you can tell us -- >> there's no ai measure for that. i still have to figure it out? . not really. say what do my kids want to eat, their preferences for thanksgiving. >> i am not a short-order cook. >> you have to cook it but it can give you the recipes automatically so you don't have to think of something new to put on the table every day. >> we have to run. one important -- i have one important business question for you, michael, which is, there's been a lot of speculation that apple might try to come out with its own kind of almost tablet-like device that sits in a kitchen.

google has one. they don't have all the functionality you have yet, but are you concerned they may soon? >> we are not. their strategy is completely different. they're building general purpose platforms for 100 million plus customers whereas we do very narrow, specific solutions to very painful needs that a family has. they just don't go that deep in terms of the software for families that they're building. so we might partner one day because really we're a software that happens to be on a display in the middle of your house. >> fascinating. michael, thank you for joining us. happy thanksgiving. and i'll tell my kids that we talked because they -- they know the device well. >> thank you so much. >> thanks. all right. when we come back, former ceo of saks and the nrf steve sadove will talk about the shopping rush and the state of the consumer. later ad engagement. the nfl and amazon with the ceo

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all right. welcome back, everybody. let's talk markets this morning. joining us right now is ed yardeni, the president of yardeni reich yardeni research, joining us on a morning where we have seen record highs for the dow and the s&p 500. what do you think of this rally we're on what kind of legs does it have and what would you tell people in terms of where they should invest right now? >> they should stay invested. hard to tell somebody who's been

in cash to get into this market right now. things are not cheap. clearly those who are getting into the market are going into the small and mid cap stocks which have been relatively cheap and that's fine. then i think people are also going into the s&p 493, which are cheaper than the magnificent seven. all in all i would stay invested. the outlook remains upbeat. clearly there's risks out there, but the economy has proven itself to be resilient. i don't think the fed needs to lower interest rates. meanwhile, the outlook i think is going to be somewhat bumpy with issues of tariffs, but tax cuts and deregulation should be good for earnings. >> the entire idea of, you know, the don't fight the fed if the fed is continuing to cut rates has been one thing that has driven this market. >> right. >> you think the baton has been

handed off to a business friendly administration and corporations are going to be able to continue to earn significant amounts of money in. >> absolutely. and not only that, i think that we are still in the early stages of a productivity boom. productivity really was extremely low back in 2015. it was almost down to zero. and we've seen it go from 0.5% to about 2%, so we've seen a quadrupling of productivity since 2015 and i think productivity growth can go up to 3 to 4% which sounds delusional but we've had productivity booms in the past in the '60s, and '90s, and they also showed productivity going to 3 to 4%. this productivity boom probably has more going for it because the technologies that are out there lend themselves to being used by many more business kind of applications than we had even

in the 1990s. >> do you think this is entirely ai driven or -- we're still early in the ai run on things. >> right. no. you know, becky, we've been calling this the roaring 2020s since the beginning of the decade and so far so good. it wasn't based just on ai. it was based on cloud computing. it was based on automation. robotics. there's a lot of moving parts here on the technology revolution, and they're all coming together. i think the key driver is a shortage of skilled labor and technology is able to augment the productivity of workers that allows wages to rise faster than prices which is what's been happening for the past year and a half. all in all i think productivity is really the story that's driven the economy so far during roaring 2020s and will continue to do so up ahead here.

i think deregulation helps, tax cuts help. we'll see where the tariffs go. they could be that bump in the road along the way, but i think we're heading to 7,000 on the s&p 500 by the end of next year. >> wow. >> 8,000 by the end -- >> you know, 7,000 to 6,000 is doable in my opinion. >> yeah. >> and then 10,000 by the end of the decade. so that's my thanksgiving gift to you all. >> we'll take a prediction like that as we head into the holiday. >> right. >> ed, you're the second person in an hour who's told us we should be looking at the other 493 stocks. peter bookvar was on earlier saying the same thing. how hard is it to find bargains there? it seems like a common mantra people have been saying for a while now, look at the other 493. >> i guess my view is every -- when you look at your portfolio think of every company is a technology company. they either make it or use it.

if they don't use it they're going to be a competitive disadvantage. i think there's a tremendous amount of pressure to use technology, and it's not just pressure. i mean it pays off. i think there's still opportunities. in technology believe it or not and communication services and the rest of the market i think financials are still -- have opportunities, industrials, consumer discretionary. i think there's some clunkers like health care is going to be challenged by rfk and dr. oz. we'll see how that plays out. and materials and energy are being challenged by fundamentally weak outlook for chinese company as well as the european economy. >> ed yardeni, thanks a lot for being with us today. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy holidays. thank you. >> coming up next, tiz the season to shop. mastercard senior adviser steve

sadove with his outlook on what's to come. "squawk box" coming back after this. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year were balloons introduced in the macy's thanksgivingay p darade? the answer when "squawk box" returns. uh huh! gives you a chance to reflect on the important things. aflac! like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby! uh huh! see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh.

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year were balloons introduced in the macy's thanksgiving day parade. the answer 1927. the first three balloons that floated were felix the cat, a dragon and a toy soldier. >> all right. put that in the category of you learn something every day. a good trivia question. check out shares of urban outfitters this morning. they're up pretty sharply, 11.6% after the retailer posted earnings of 1.10 a share better than expectations and total comp sales up by 1.5% thanks in part to a 5.8% jump in its anthropology brand. urban outfitter stores, those were down by 8.9%, but still, wall street's looking on the bright side of life this morning up more than 11% for those

shares this morning, andrew. >> thanks, becky. meantime according to mastercard spending during the 2024 holiday season will be up 3.2% year over year. joining us with more on inside mastercard senior adviser ken sadove, former ceo of saks. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> seems like we're going to have a good christmas, but we look at a target or some of these other places and you are sort of thinking i don't know how good is it going to be. what do you think? >> i think it's going to be a very healthy holiday season. the mastercard spending pulse insight says 3.2%. that indicates that the consumer still shopping. if you look at the data over the last several months it's been in that same kind of range of a little over 3% in terms of overall retail spending. inflation is under control, so you're seeing real growth in the

consumer spending. but they're being choiceful. that's one of the words some of the ceos have been using as they've been reporting. there's winners, there's losers, but overall the consumer is healthy, money in their pockets and they have their -- they're employed receiving real wage growth and outspending. i think it's different. it's a shorter holiday season, more promotional holiday season. it started earlier. and you can expect to see that it's -- you're going to have a mad rush towards the end. but i think you're right, andrew, if you have winners and losers in this environment and it's probably been more exacerbated this year than i've seen in the past. >> let's talk about the winners and losers, though, in your mind. who would you put on the winner list? who do you put on the loser list? >> i'd start with -- rather than talking about individual companies, i talk about themes. you know, the consumer is wanting value. they're wanting convenience.

they want product anywhere, any time they want to get it. online is winning. prepandemic, online was growing at about twice the growth rate of stores. the forecast for the holiday season online at 7%. stores are going to probably grow in the 2% type of range. so online is a winner. i think that the stores that are providing -- when we talk about value, the big box stores that are membership are winning. you see the off price players are winning. i think that the providing food in a convenient form -- i won't talk individual names, but the membership as well as a high preponderance of food are winning. i think what you have is fashion trend right in the apparel space are winning. you see a lot of winners and losers in apparel, but overall, apparel is actually up to, you

know -- flat to up a couple percent. again, it's not a one size fits all, but there are individual stories that are cutting across all the business and you really have to focus on who is -- who is playing the right way. >> steve, you mention the idea this is going to be a promotional period, and that we may see more promotions this season than we have in the past or at least for a while. what does that mean to margin? >> well, i think that's a big question mark. right now you have a five-day shorter holiday season. you saw some of the sales come in from some of the companies relatively weak. you heard some comments from some companies that the first two weeks of november have started off okay. but it's a question of who is going to blink. because of the shorter season if, in fact, companies feel that their inventories aren't under control in the next couple weeks you could see some movement in pricing that's where you have

the risk of margins. most of the expectations for the fourth quarter are relatively conservative in their forecasting largely because they're not sure of how the margins going to play out. i think it's pretty clear you're going to hit the top line. the retail sales numbers, a question of whether they have to promote a little bit more to get there, i think in the end it's going to come in pretty healthy in terms of the margin side of it. again, those retailers that aren't providing the convenience value, the fully integrated seamless shopping experience with digital, are probably going to have a little bit of risk towards the end of the season on margin. >> steve, we've been watching trying to figure out if there has been a consumer confidence jump that shows up in sales, the same way that you've seen investor confidence bump the stock market since the election. there have been several companies that have reported that their november numbers were showing better trend wise.

ha do you think from what you've seen from what you've heard? is there something you can sus out in those numbers yet? >> this is anecdotal rather than the hard data. everything i've been hearing there is a bit of a post-election jump in confidence. the consumer, you know, historically in election periods they freeze a little bit during the preelection update. you've seen people get back out. i've seen a couple of studies that have come out in the last week or two that have talked about increased consumer confidence in their own personal situation and getting out there shopping. that's why infield would antic you will feel comfortable in the 3% type of growth for the holiday season. with a 0.7%, you're at 2.5% real growth in the retail spending, which is healthy. i do think the consumer confidence is increasing. you've got a very healthy stock market.

the luxury consumer is feeling very good about their own personal situation. so they're out. try to get a reservation in a high-end restaurant. you know, you're still seeing a very strong performance and confidence level on that consumer. at the lower end of the market while they're very stretched in terms of -- because of the high prices even though inflation is down, the price levels are high, you're seeing the real wage growth among that consumer as well. >> steve, want to thank you. want to wish you a reat thanksgiving and happy holiday season and hopefully we'll be talking to you between now and the big one coming up soon. >> all the best. go shopping. >> thanks. >> when we come back, it is a "squawk box" tradition. the butterball turkey talk line is open for business. we're going to get some tips and tricks to make your holiday feast perfect with the talk line supervisor. that's coming up in just a moment. you've got a frozen turkey, you

better stick around. right now take a look at what's been happening with the markets relatively flat. dow futures up by 8 points. nasdaq off by 50. the s&p futures are down by 7. we have a lot of data going to be hitting us in less than an hour. all those data points things thrks.watching for and so will e maet somebody will be right back.

♪ coming up, in just a moment, the nfl scoring with consumers on amazon. we'll tell you about that right after this. later, am i excited about this, "wall street journal" columnist peggy noonan here to discuss her new book and the state ou.f s. politics. "squawk box" coming right back after this.

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enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. for a satisfying moment unlike any other. welcome back, everybody. walmart is aiming to boost its black friday shopping with ads during nbc's thanksgiving football broadcast that will allow viewers to visit a virtual store. viewers can just scan a qr code that appears during the commercial breaks and it will take them directly to walmart.com shopping pages. walmart and nbc universal say they expect the partnership to extend beyond thanksgiving. nbc universal, of course, is the parent company of this network.

for now. amazon's thursday night football has had a strong season driving 44% more consumer engagement than the nfl average. prime video won't air a thanksgiving game tomorrow it will feature the raiders versus the kansas city chiefs on black friday, maybe appropriately for the big retailer. joining us right now is kevin krim edo president and ceo. kevin, tell us again how you measure ads before we jump into ad and consumer engagement with the ads that come through. you do things differently than just about anybody else. >> that's right. at edo we work for amazon, nbc universal, disney, netflix, and what we're looking at is outcomes generated by tv commercials. we're looking at the behaviors that consumers take immediately after seeing the ad, searching for the brand and going to the brand's website or app, and what these are, are predicative signals of eventual business results. it's investment-grade views of

what the fair value of advertising is. >> i would assume for amazon when they are streaming something you do have more engaged viewers because these are people already tech savvy, using amazon streaming to do this, maybe at their computer as they're watching these things too. it's probably an easier stretch than dealing with old television at times. >> the amazon 100 plus million prime subscriber households in the country are above average household, i'd say overall, and so you have that and then you have the engagement with an app. you don't change channels as easily when in an app. you've got also a lot of custom integrations that amazon has been putting a lot of effort into. >> so what do you find? 44% more effective than the nfl average? what's that translate into? >> right. that's for thursday night football on amazon prime video. that's saying on average, the lift for every ad that has aired on thursday night football is higher than the average of other nfl programs. you've got that added engagement

with the ads which means they're more valuable to the advertisers. the nfl is above average in its own right. >> that's ha i was going to ask what this means for advisors. can amazon charge more money to advertisers and how does the nfl view some of these things too? >> right. advertising is priced on a per thousand basis, per thousand impressions. cpms. >> amazon able to charge a higher cpm because it's driving more engagement per person, per household than the average nfl broadcast. the nfl is priced at a significant premium over television because it drives more engagement. >> i would guess some of the madison avenue types, the ad sales guys, would say look, it loses the mystique somewhere. if we create a great ad campaign, maybe it's in your head about the new car brand that's out there or the new beer brand that we're trying to -- or old beer brand we're trying to

bring you back to in the case of some of the ones we've seen recently. what do you say to that? looking things up, does that necessarily translate to sales and not looking something up or not being able to measure it, potentially looking up something on their phone and you don't see that. >> right. >> some of the old line oness. >> right. the emotional impact of that with a 21st century consumer is translated into their behaviors, ained, habituated to know they have connected devices all over as they're watching tv and able to take actions when they see something that is interesting to them. that is ultimately what advertisers are trying to do is create that awareness and then that intent. >> how do you measure it if somebody is looking things up on their phones when watching on an old screen tv. can you capture that? >> we're looking at large panels of consumers, opting in. >> like a nielsen. >> but for a modern streaming age. >> right. >> these are people who they're shopping behavior, their research behavior, is very

useful for a variety of researching purposes including what we do. >> is nielsen trying to copy you? seems ke you're right this is a modern approach in capturing things the old way of measuring would never capture. >> what nielsen does and others do is audience measure. that's how many people see it. that's not an easy task. nielsen has had to evolve from a fairly small panel to one that blends in what's called big data, all the data coming from smart tvs and set top boxes. that's a challenge in and of itself because demographic based advertising buy-in is really changing to advanced audiences and that's a big technical challenge for a hundred year old company. people like edo are doing is bringing outcomes to advertising and that ultimately is what people buy off of because they need to know what the expected value of every ad that they're going to buy be. >> your takeaway from this is be prepared for far more streaming to come because that's where the

consumers are and that's where the advertisers are going to want to be. >> exactly. streaming is all about consumer choice and advertiser choice, it's a win-win for everyone, and we're going to see more live football on streaming platforms. >> kevin krim, always great to see you. >> great to see you, becky. >> we'll see you soon. >> thank you. >> happy thanksgiving. andrew. a lot more to come. avoid turkey trouble this thanksgiving. well, we've got the butterball hotline operators standing by to serve up some of our answers and we'll speak to the hotline's supervisor next and t gesome big turkey tips. we're coming right back. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf.

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joining us live from the butterball talk line is bill noland. happy thanksgiving. it is good to see you again, sir. >> happy thanksgiving. good to be with you. we're excited. our workers are coming in getting ready to take those calls and answer those questions. >> we just finished a segment where we were talking about how so much of the world is moving to streaming, the internet plays a big role. you guys are getting as many calls as ever through the turkey talkline. how is the turkey talk line internet proof? why do people still call you? >> i think the secret people want to talk to a real human being. we've adapted over time with technology. we take questions through text, through e-mail, through live chat. really the phones are still the backbone of the talk line. people want to call 1-800 butterball and talk to a real human being. we're here throughout the week. we were here last night until 9:00, here tonight through 9:00

and here all day tomorrow. we're the lifeline for people whether they want advice and maybe done it a million times but make sure they're doing it right or the first-time cook that says i never done it before how do you do it. we will walk them through the process and make it as painless as the real human experience and stories you're getting on some of these things. i would guess you get calls from first-timers. what are the craziest questions you all have been asked? >> well a lot of people -- turkey is a funny thing. people only have it once or twice a year. >> yeah. >> it's intimidating. >> that's the perfect word. you take a look at it. it's a large piece of meat to cook and people say how am a i going to do this or thaw it out. our number one question how do i thaw my turkey. the good news being we're this close into the holiday right now, there is a quick way to do it a cold water method that you leave the turkey in the wrapper,

put it in the sink, fill it up with cold water and change that water every 30 minutes and you can thaw that turkey out in a matter of hours saeds of instea matter of days. this is great for people who forget to take it out of the freezer. exciting is another option are cook from frozen turkey rolled out in select markets. people wan -- wan go to the butterball.com and click where to buy and see if it's available in your area. take it out of the bag, the inner wrapper, pop it into a 350 degree oven and in about four hours a perfectly good turkey which takes a lot of the headache of thawing it out off the table for you. >> i read the stories where you talk about the funny questions that get asked from people. somebody called, a guy called in and said, my turkey's frozen. what do i do. he was asked what state is the turkey in? he answered florida.

i've seen questions about people wanting to know if they can thaw the turkey with an electric blanket. washing it with dish soap in the sink. but i think the best story i've heard is one that you told along the line one time, bill, where you got a call from a newly widowed man who was trying to put his thanksgiving turkey together. what happened with that call? >> yeah. that was -- that was my first year on the talk line, and i got this call from a gentleman on a wednesday night and -- the night before thanksgiving. as you said he was newly widowed, and he wanted to make the turkey he had never cooked before. his wife passed away in the previous year. he wanted to make the turkey, and he had no idea what to do. i walked him through the entire process and, you know, i told him write this all down. but most important call us back tomorrow if you need help. he felt pretty confident by the end. we can take people from start to finish.

and when you can do something like that for somebody, it makes you feel like you're making a difference. it's not rocket science what we do, but if you're helping people to put on a great meal that's what butterball is about. it's like sharing the love, passing on the love to people and making things real. the holidays are for being together. it's been a tough year. and we want to make people happy and have a good meal on their table. >> and we are grateful for it. it's the true spirit of thanksgiving. being thankful and giving back. what you and your team is doing is really something. we should point out, you're doing this all day tomorrow on thanksgiving. bill nolan, thank you to you and your team and happy thanksgiving. >> go ahead to be with you. happy thanksgiving to you as well. >> we'll see you soon. >> take care. okay. coming up, when we return, the head of internet research at evercore isi mark mahaney will talk stocks and the names you need to be watching going into the final months -- really the final month now of the year. later, senior adviser to

president biden for energy investment, amos hochstein will join us to discuss what he's been working on, the cease-fire between israel and hezbollah. he's been in t mdlheide of it. so much more coming up on "squawk" after this. each one suffering with a story that breaks your heart. like ravette, who needed help, because every step brought her pain. their only hope is a ship unlike any other. mercy ships. the largest floating civilian hospital in the world to bring free surgeries and care for people who have no other hope. only 62 cents a day, $19 a month, will help provide urgently needed surgery for the world's forgotten poor. if you have ever wondered: "how can i, just one person, make a difference?" this is your answer. so many are still suffering. so don't wait. call the number on your screen. or donate now at mercyships.org.

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isi. welcome back. joining us to talk internet stocks, mark mahaney, evercore isi, head of research. good morning to you. we've been talking about how the entire market has continued to fly and the question, of course, is how much does it have to fly, whether you think a pullback is in the offing and if you don't want to market time it exactly, what's the right move here? >> okay. you're right, andrew, that we've had a pretty big rally in especially the highest quality internet names. very little dislocation now. stocks like netflix and meta and spotify that are close to all-time highs or have been knocking on all-time highs in the last couple weeks. there's not that many new opportunities in there. we continue to like amazon for one of the reasons you talked about earlier on the show, which is what i think will be an inflection point in ad revenue and we like uber here. one of the few maybe the only

high quality internet stocks that is dislocated. those are our two stock picks going into the end of the year. >> when you say uber is dislocated, let's look at it right there, it's come down from its highs, is that what you're suggesting? yeah. there's two reasons. the stock is corrected something like 20%. for two reasons. the concerns over what happens to uber in the robotaxi world and then there's the concern over the last quarter of the print. we had deceleration in the mobility bookings, their ride share bookings, and there's concern that that's going to continue on into next year. i think both of those concerns are overstated. i'm taking the other side. that's why it's our top pick. i think as the largest demand aggregator for ride sharing i think uber is going to be a positive derivative and a winner off of robotaxi and we're going to see more waymo business deals with uber that are consistent with what they've announced in atlanta and in austin and on the

mobility side i think the comps get easier going into next year and the product continues to improve, uber for business, uber for teens, and the growth rate can stabilize going into next year. it will probably stay close to 20%. i think that's good enough to take the stock materially higher from here. >> materially higher is what? >> 30, 40% upside. you put 25 times free cash flow on an uber and you could get -- you could easily get 15% upside from here. it's a high-quality asset. free cash flow margins are ramping and you will see them start leaning into buying back stock. the makings of a really nice outpacing stock. >> how do you think about lyft, by the way, in all of this? they've done quite well recently >> the stock has done well. they've started to execute a little bit better. if uber was at an all-time high and trading at 25 times free cash flow multiple i would probably lean into lyft, but for

now, i can sort of look at the largest best situated, most globally diversified, product diversified gig economy play that's uber and buy it at a really great discount. i don't see the great need to step into lyft. >> let me ask you a different question, which is we talked about apple over the years and we've now been having a big conversation about what tariffs might look like, you know, in this new administration. tim cook has done a great job somehow with his relationship with donald trump that was actually reported about in the "wall street journal" earlier this week. do you have any anxiety that either an apple or any other big tech companies will be impacted by tariffs in china? >> well, absolutely. if you're any sort of retailer is going to have to worry about that. so that's just not -- that's walmart, obviously, and it's amazon, obviously. a very high percentage of products sold on amazon that come via china. something like, you know, a

broad, flat-out imposition -- further imposition of tariffs could cause pressures, price pressures for, you know, people shopping at amazon and it could cause people to pull back from shopping at amazon. i don't think amazon would be competitively disadvantaged versus other large retailers. across the board it would be an issue for retailers. >> and then finally, mark, do you expect that some of that pricing pressure gets taken by an amazon or gets taken by a walmart or not? >> i don't know. i would guess that it would be a mix here. the companies would have to make that decision. do they pass it on or -- and then dent sales growth or do they take on some of that and suffer lower margins. my guess is that these companies probably do a mix of these things and they've been hedging themselves for -- this isn't the first time they've had to deal with tariff issues over the last six to eight years. so i think they probably have

decent playbooks. probably a bit of both. it's an issue for any retailer that sources from china, which is almost any retailer in the u.s., tariffs are an issue. >> mark, want to wish you a happy thanksgiving. thanks for joining us this morning. >> to you as well, ap ndrew. it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off today. among our top business stories this morning, investors standing by for some key inflation data. the fed's preferred measure hits at 10:00 a.m. eastern time today. economists are expecting a year over year rise in core pce prices of 2.8%. that compares to 2.7% in the last report. americans hitting the road and boarding planes for thanksgiving travel. aaa projecting nearly 80 million people will head 50 miles or further from home. forecasters are monitoring snow in the ountains of colorado today and possible airport delays in chicago and kansas

city. new york city area could see rain related airport delays tomorrow. and the domestic box office is poised for its biggest thanksgiving haul since the pandemic thanks to "wicked," "gladiator ii" and moana 2. it's expected to clear somewhere between 120 and $150 million by monday. in the eantime take a look at the futures. dow up by 6 points, s&p futures down by 6. the nasdaq indicated off by 41 but we are talking about the dow and s&p closing at new highs once again yesterday. let's get over to mike santoli standing by at the new york stock exchange. hey, mike, what's up? >> hey, becky. yeah, index is pretty steady at those record levels and, you know, it's been tough to knock the s&p 500 off course from this uptrend even with the tariff headlines and things like that. you have the bullish bias for the year-end tailwinds as well

as holiday week and then just a general sense out there that the fundamentals are pretty supportive. take a look at a one-year. so much has happened this year. a lot of headline, thick headline environment and basically the market is now held the uptrend that was in place from the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter this year. that's a steady line. we're not super stretched within it, but maybe, you know, it wouldn't take much to get there. so it has been pretty orderly, very modest pullback after that reflex post election rally. there is a change of character underneath the surface. semiconductors relative to the transports. now any time and beyond year-to-date or one year it's going to look like semis are racing ahead of transports. more recently you see transports have kind of edged ahead. semis have struggled here. they were inflated going into the mid part of this year. nvidia's got great numbers but a lot of it seems priced in. a little bit of a tariff shadow

over chips. meanwhile stronger expectations for the domestic economy have managed to get transports edging ahead of semis at this level. broader market pretty calm. low volatility levels. take a look at at the vix on a one-year basis we have gotten below 15. there was a big drop after the election result and now it seems like we're getting locked into, you know, this sort of fourth quarter end-of-year calm that we have come to get used to in strong market years at the end of strong market years. this is now on pace to be the second 20% up year in the s&p 500 in a row. >> mike, let me ask you, we had ed yardeni on earlier today and he was saying we just touched above 6,000 for the s&p. he was saying that next year he expects the s&p to end the year at 7,000. and above 8,000 the following year in 2026. i mean, that's a pretty phenomenal straight line that you could trace up.

what do predictions like that sound like to you? how would you anticipate it? we're talking low volatility right now. i wonder if it's a bumpier ride to get to those places. it's all plausible. by the way, 10,000 for the s&p 500 is an 8% annualized gain. that's not like completely -- >> it's coming on the back of a lot of strong years -- >> exactly. we're actually sitting on a very strong trailing return over almost any time period beyond three years. so yes, i think a lot would have to go right. usually something comes along. even if you're getting to 7,000 or 8,000 over the next two years, it's probably going to mean that there was a significant pullback along the way that basically is going to test people's nerves. so again, i think what -- the way the strategist outlooks are lining up for next year are net bullish. when we were coming into this year, there was a lot of divergence and people thought there was no upside. the actual median target for the

s&p 500 was very, very modest and even right now for the end of this year, remains well below where the market is now. everybody's vowing not to make that mistake again and so you have like a 10% consensus upside. seems like it might be getting a little aggressive, but not out of the question. >> okay. mike, happy thanksgiving. >> you too. >> see you later. andrew. >> meantime we have news on openai this morning. kate rooney is on the west coast and she's got more on fascinating sale potentially for employees of openai of some of those shares. >> yeah. andrew, good morning. good to see you. sources telling me openai is going to be selling a new $1.5 billion stake to softbank. this is going to be through a tender offer current and former employees will be able to share their shares. softbank first invested roughly

$500 million into openai during the mega funding round. this through its vision fund. a source tells me massa was persistent as they described it in looking for another opportunity to put cash into the start-up. it raises softbank's stake at this point to about $2 billion in openai. across all of its funds, softbank has roughly $160 billion in assets and also made a couple other notable ai investments. you've got arm, for example, and at a conference recently he said he is saving tens of billions to make the next big move in ai. so openai and softbank did decline to comment. it is a way for current and former employees to get cash. they're going to -- held the restricted stock units for two years. this is increasingly important especially in tech mid this ipo drought i reported that databricks in the midst of a similar move to get employees liquidity. for openai it is a signal to

potential employees and even if openai does not go public any time soon there are ways to capitalize on its mediocre rise in value. one person telling me the start-up is in a war for talent and expects to do more secondaries going forward and tap private markets as the person told me again in the not too distant future. openai last valued at $157 billion. i'm told this week's deal not going to change that valuation. source also tells me this is not related to its potential plans to restructure to a for profit business. i'm told that is still in the works, guys, so stay tuned. back over to you. >> one of the things becky, and i were talking about was the incentive issue. how many are selling out and staying at the company? is that a good idea, bad idea in terms of incenting them economically. there was early folks who were in openai when it was effectively a research outfit,

many whom have left but they have shares. will they be able to sell into this? >> former employees will be able to sell i'm told as well. you have a lot of founders, early employees that have left the company at this point. if their shares have vested over the past two years they will be able to sell. i'm told it's also sort of a recruiting tool. if you go to look at -- am i going to meta where i can get stock and potentially sell out sooner or go to a private company where i'm worth a lot of money on paper but not able to pay mortgage or send my kids to college. they want to signal you have these liquidity events where you get cash. it begs the question when you want to sell out, wouldn't want to sell too early if you're an employee and believe in a 10 or 20 year horizon of a company like this. it's probably a sigh of relief for early employees that would have been locked up, up until point. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. good to see you guys. >> great to see you. all right.

when we come back, we're going to speak with "wall street journal" columnist peggy noonan on how the incoming trump administration is shaping up. her perspective and talk about a book she has coming out, too. then later senior white house adviser amos hochstein joins us on the israel-hezbollah cease-fire. stay tuned. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

welcome back, everybody. our next guest is joining us to weigh in on the state of u.s. politics and the mood of the country post-election. we want to welcome "wall street journal" columnist peggy noonan, former special assistant and speechwriter for president ronald reagan has a new book out called "a certain idea of america" that is a collection of the columns for the "wall street journal" almost the last quarter century, i think it's 24 years now. welcome. >> hi, becky. >> great to have you here. >> thank you. it is for me also.

>> i mean, as a writer myself, i marvell at what you are able to do. the way you write. how you touch a nerve with people, how you touch a nerve with me and how you do it again and again week after week. i'm blown away. i think this collection of columns is something to marvel. what brought you to bring this book together? >> well, thank you, becky, for everything you just said. you know, the column itself has become just very central to my professional life in january as you mentioned, it will be 25 years as a columnist at the journal and a publisher came to me and said let's take a look at the past few years and see if we don't see some themes and ideas in this and make it into something. so i said yes, and we went through about 400 columns, close

-- chose about 90s of them. it was something to go through these boxes and found that the really big themes, it's very funny, you know as a writer, you don't quite know what your obsessions are until you lookback at the past few years of your writing. and you find out your obsessions. i am obsessed with history and all of its themes and the civil war and great men and women who somehow either were sterling individuals and sterling artists like paul simon and bob dillon and tom wolfe or people, regular humans who had a sterling moment that when you look into it just excites you to see. >> what would you say about where we stand right now at this moment in our time of history as someone who is obsessed you say with history and clearly someone

who has always focused on the mood of the country? >> we're at an interesting point. i think perhaps we don't notice enough a number of us are still inclined to see the 21st century as this new thing we've stepped into. we're a quarter of the way through 291st 1st century as of january. we've made some big political decisions. one of the things we did within this 21st century is throw off old establishments. what we are beginning and what will take their place is not completely clear, but man, we're at a hinge point. goodbye to that. we're building this. >> yeah. you wrote recently you think this is a sign of america becoming more conservative. i've been mulling that over. i can see that in some ways, but

i feel like this is a move where the democratic party just moved so far left it left a lot of people behind. >> yeah. i think that's true and i think the democrats have a lot of thinking to do. they, i believe, have lost their reputation with regular people on the street in america, by which i mean, it used to be in the old america, you'd say the democratic party, what's that and people could kind of tell you what it is. the party of the little guy. the party of bigger spending. certainly as of the '60s the anti-war party. those things, those issues, have kind of been stolen by the trumpian republicans. so i think the democratic party, having just suffered a significant loss, have to sit down and think, are we going to

remake the three things that people understood we stood for? are we going to get three new things we stand for? so i think the democratic party has a lot of wrestling with itself to do. >> hey, peggy, i was watching an interview you had done with my old friend barry weiss recently. >> oh, yeah. >> talking about this meeting you just had with president trump for the first time, the first time you had ever met him. i found it fascinating to listen to you talking about that experience, but also your decision not to want to meet him prior. i'm curious now that you've met him, actually, whether you think it actually has changed any of your perspective about him? >> oh, i think i was so -- i was baffling on a stage with barry weiss and she got me babbling in a wonderful interview. she's a great interviewer.

i had -- it had been my judgment, andrew, in 2015 and 2016 that mr. trump, who i had not formally met -- i'd seen him but not formally met him -- that he's a kind of riveting and super charming and endearing character up close. and i thought, well i'm a regular political writer, and i'm going to be -- something tells me i'm going to be writing about this man for a long time. i think i do not want to know him, and i do not want to watch him from far away. i want to kind of watch him from a middle distance and get my sense of him from there. so that is what i did. for seven or eight years, i guess. eventually i was called into a meeting at which he very -- very generously and appropriately met with the editorial board of the

"wall street journal" and i was a little indiscreet talking about what it was like to meet him. i think he was like what i thought he would be. he was most endearing in the sense of he wants you to laugh at his joke. he wants you to listen to him and hear him. he is eager to make a connection. he was hilariously funny in talking always off the record about or mostly off the record about other world leaders. he was indeed a riveting a character. >> will it change how you write about him? >> yeah. >> i think it only confirmed what i kind of thought, and i think, you know, we have -- i guess long-term, i'm feeling this, we have a new president. just more than 50% of the

american people voted for him and chose him. if you are an american, you pray for that person who is your new president and hope that everything will go well. cheer what you think is a victory. point out what you think is bad and does not work or is a wicked actor or irresponsible one. but just hope for the best and watch closely, i guess. >> peggy, my follow-up to this is, we were talking about and you were discussing what you think the future of the democratic party looks like. i'm curious what you think the future of the republican party looks like? >> i think donald trump and his nationalist and populist supporters will be determining that to a good extent. they've already changed the nature of the party by making it

more populist, by changing its assumptions world assumptions with regard to things like free trade. we can use tariffs now to see if we can't better america's position. that hasn't been a republican party way of thinking for a long time. they are changing the party if it is a success, if four years hence five years, six, it looks like these things were needed and good, then that will determine the real -- that will finalize the nature of the republican party for the future it seems to me, until another revolution comes along. if it does not work, back to the drawing board. as the democrats are. >> peggy noonan, one of the great must-reads of all time. we're so grateful to have you on the broadcast and wish you a happy thanksgiving.

good luck with the book. >> to you too. thank you, guys, very much. >> you bet. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk." inside amazon's plan to dominate black friday from shopping to live sports all of tt haand more. "squawk box" rolls on after this.

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♪ all right. let's get you caught up on key premarket stock movers trending lower this morning. we'll start with dell technologies that stock slumping after the pc maker forecast revenue and earnings well below what the street was expecting. the stock down close to 12%. cyber security firm crowdstrike

that stock is also lower after the company's fourth quarter revenue forecast failed to impress investors. hsbc downgrading the stock to a hold from a buy this morning. it's down by only about 2%. andrew? >> thanks, becky. we are now seconds away from initial jobless claims, a revised look at third quarter gdp and october durable goods orders. straight over to the man in chicago and the windy city, rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick, the numbers? >> then there's a long list of them, so everybody watching and listening, get comfortable. on initial claims, expecting 215,000. we come in at 213,000. that equals last month but that moves up now to 215,000. that is the lightest level since april, since april of this year. if we look at continuing claims, it remains on its second -- oh, revision. 1, 907, 000. i was going to say the second

week above 1.9, but last week's 1.9 million downgraded to slightly under. this remains the loftiest level going back to november of 2021. let's look at our second time around the block on gdp. it remains for the third quarter at 2.8%. and if we look at consumption, remember last time we looked it was a whopping 3.7. that was the best going all the way back to q1 of '23. it comes down just a bit to 3.5 but that still remains pretty lofty. it equals the fourth quarter of '23. if we look at the price index moved up from 1.8 to 1.9, still the best progress since it was 1.5 in the last quarter of '23. finally let's look at core price action. 2.1%. it sheds 0.1%. at 2.1, it's the lightest, well, since it was 2% last quarter of

last year. let's switch gears to durable goods. durable goods, headline number was expected to be up 0.1. it comes in exactly at 0.1. last week, excuse me, last month, becomes 0.4 instead of 0.5. if you look at the ex-transportation figure that is also up -- excuse me, folks the headline up 0.2. ex-transportation up 0.1. capital good orders nondefense ex-aircraft a proxy for capital spending it moves up to 0.2, better than expected, that's pretty lofty. do can are that in the rearview mirror if you look at capital good orders we had up 0.7. that was a strong number. it now gets cut basically in half to up 0.3, up 0.3 ends up the best since june of last year. and finally let's look at shipments instead of orders, shipments, shipments are up 0.2 of a percent and that is as

expected. now let's look at trade balance. this really is important, folks. i know it's an advanced look, but it's at minus 99.1. last look at 108.7. that is the second highest trade deficit in history and that goes back to 1989. we all know the trade balance may have a lot of movement in the future paced on things like tariffs and also this number has a lot of activity surrounding some of the pull forward of many entities trying to get ahead of potential tariff action. wholesale inventories they were up 0.2. retail inventories were up 0.1. the market siphoned all of that and we end up at 4.20 in a two-year. guess right. 4.20. 10-year, 4.25 before the number, remains at 4.25. if it was to close there, it would be a one-month low yield close. back to you, andrew and the

gang. >> okay. rick, i'll take it over. that is something to have all of that flood of data and the market is like yeah, whatever. we'll stay the same place here. i was looking for movement. we'll see what happens. rick is going to stay with us. joining us for more on the data is dana peterson and steve liesman. steve, why don't you tell us what you think of some of these numbers we've seen? >> i mean, i think the economy is doing just fine, right. 2.8%. a little bit stickier inflation out there. something we're going to have to deal with, by the way, today at 10:00 which is when the pce comes in. but it is interesting, we went into this number with yields down a little bit. the probabilities of rate hikes up just a little bit. maybe coming from yesterday's minutes, i'm not really quite sure where the little bit dovish sentiment set in in the markets.

you had a rise of probability. i'll look at that right now to see if that's still accurate, but i think we're in the same place as rick said. no change in the two-year therefore not much of a change. usually in the probabilities. what you have is -- i don't know what you call it 58% probability of may now and january is a pause, december now 64%. so we're still on track there. not that excited about some of the shipment data which seemed to be a little bit on the negative side. overall, becky, you have jobless claims low, gdp doing pretty good with the consumption doing reasonably well. i'm going to leave it at that. the economy doing just fine right now. >> okay. dana, weigh in. digging through these numbers if the economy is doing fine right now, if that's what we see on things, what's that mean for the fed? steve pointed out this more dovish sentiment. it's probably from the fomc minutes but also austan goolsbee the chicago fed president the comments he made that were just released talking about how maybe they can go a little more slowly

and be a little more cautious on some of these rate hikes coming. what's your overall take? >> sure. i believe the economy is also doing very well. we didn't see any big revisions in gdp. yeah, consumption was a little bit softer, but it's still really strong. and then when we think about the labor market we're not seeing people getting let go. folks are working. that's all really great for consumption. even, you know, starting off the fourth quarter, even though we did have some hurricane action that probably dampened some of the numbers. the economy is doing well. when you think about inflation it has been sticky. the headline pce deflator has been close to 2%, but only because gasoline prices have been falling. away from that we're still seeing stickiness among services, especially for insurance costs and we think wages are also feeding into there and yeah, the fed can probably move more gradually. we still think they'll go 25 in december, but for next year if we have more inflation

pressures, then we should probably pull back some of our expectations for interest rate cuts. >> rick, do you think the fed should be cutting interest rates here? >> no. listen, i understand that when we look at where we're at in yields and when we look at where we believe inflation is going to settle out, i do believe it will be somewhere between 2.5 and 3. -- 3%, that many believe that if you factor in where yield curves have been and return premiums have been, we can afford to cut rates a bit. but i look at it a little differently becky. i pretend i don't know where are, and i look at data from the economy. and the data doesn't act as though the fed needs to give it any type of boost, any type of additional horsepower, by lowering interest rates. i don't think there's much doubt the fed is probably going to go a quarter in december, but i don't think based on the activity in the economy and even though there may be slowing in the labor market and general

activity, it's to a point where i still think, especially looking at the record close we've had yesterday and some of the equity indices, that the economy does not need the fed to jump on the white horse and come to the rate rescue. >> steve, i want to ask you about the trade deficit. those numbers that rick highlighted and i think righteously so, the idea we're at the second largest in history. that just speaks to what's going to happen. this is a number we're going to have to start watching much more carefully as we have a new administration that comes in with tariffs and things to try to change that. part of this could be because people are trying to get ahead of those of those tariffs. how should we be viewing these things? >> right. i think you just got to watch it. there might be some goods coming in ahead of it. i think rick was right to point that out. we don't know when that happens. i guess if you thought that you were sure that he president trump was going to win the

election you would have started to bring stuff in ahead of time. and by the way, you'll have essentially a subtraction from gdp from the imports and they end up in inventory which is not good for business, which kind of raises an interesting question, becky, i've been thinking a lot about, which is you have a lot of people sort of downplaying the tariffs because the president won't do them all. it's just a threat. that it wasn't so bad last time. what i have not heard, becky, is a positive economic argument for the tariffs. and the idea that if you are going to increase tariffs on mexico for immigration and drugs, don't you essentially increase unemployment in mexico which would worsen both problems? it strikes me as this is not thought through. all i hear is wall street -- i guess has to sell stocks -- they're downplaying this issue but from a policy standpoint, it just seems a little silly. >> dana, i'll let you have a

quick last word. what would you answer to steve with that? >> i would say certainly tariffs a possibility. we saw them in 2018, 2019. if you look hard enough there was evidence it did weigh on the economy. we know tariffs are inflationary. it's a tax on importers who pass it on to the consumer. if we see these tariffs in any way, shape, or form we should expect higher inflation next year and that's going to weigh on growth. i think folks, yes, these could be starting points for negotiations, but anything is possible and i think markets should be ready. >> okay. dana, rick, steve, thank you all. happy thanksgiving. see you soon. andrew? >> thanks. coming up amazon counting down to black friday like a lot of u.s. consumers are. after the break we'll talk about dvetech giant's bet on the nfl tori more sales. you're watching "squawk box." this is cnbc.

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welcome back. retailers all over the country gearing up for black friday, no one more so than amazon. it's a huge day for the company on multiple fronts and julia boorstin joins us from l.a. with a look at amazon's second black friday nfl game.

good morning. >> good morning, andrew. on friday amazon's prime video will stream the nfl matchup between the las vegas raiders and the kansas city chiefs, and the game already looks like a success. sold out of ad inventory back in august, months earlier than last year's inaugural black friday game. 40% of advertisers in this game are new and they're reportedly paying as much as $750,000 for a 30-second spot. now while last year's inaugural black friday game drew 9 million viewers, this year's game viewership is expected to grow on the heels of an 11% ratings increase from viewership last year and 38% from thursday games two years ago. amazon is rolling out more tools to maximize nfl viewership for advertisers, including more interactive ads where customers can shop directly with a qr code or just with the remote on their

tv. >> if you're an advertiser, you want to be in front of customers on black friday. and what better place than the nfl, with i brings the largest live audience of any programming in the united states combined with the assets that amazon brings in terms of the selection, having your credit card on file, being able to one-click purchase. >> this is part of amazon prime video's growing commitment to sports with the nba, wnba and nascar debuting next year joining amazon's nfl rights. this as the company looks to grow the ad business that it launched earlier this year when it made its base-level prime video an ad-tier service. amazon's jane marie tells me sports rights are so valuable to amazon they are always looking for more sports rights to invest in. andrew? >> hold on. i want to understand this. if i'm watching the game and an ad comes on, there could be a qr

code and the qr code i'm going to put my phone up to the screen and it will go through -- i'm going to buy the product through amazon or buy the product separately? >> i think -- it depends on what product is, but the idea is if you're watching on the screen you can use your qr code on your phone to scan it or if you're watching on your screen use your remote control and click through to buy it and because you're already on amazon, you can click through to buy directly on amazon. it's closing the loop for advertisers. it's so effective. i know you were talking about this in the last hour with kevin krim, but it's so effective to make it easier to make a purchase. >> how -- how close are we to seriously customized ads based on the amazon algorithm? on my app, obviously, you know, it's telling me stuff it thinks i want and it's very good at that. the question is when are those ads, if you will, going to start to appear on tv like a tv ad for

product because of what i was doing on amazon? >> well, prime video can already do that kind of more targeted customization. maybe not specifically targeted to you, but definitely more targeted customization for prime video. but if you look at these nfl ads these are big brands that are interested in advertising in the nfl like they would be advertising on linear tv. >> julia boorstin, happy thanksgiving. great to see you. >> happy thanksgiving to you too. >> thanks. becky? >> when we come back, a cease-fire between israel and hezbollah going into effect. we will speak with senior white house adviser amos hochstein who played a key role in cftg ateal.rain stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back.

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call your doctor right away if you have new pain or tenderness, sores, ulcers or infection in your legs or feet. ♪ jardiance is really swell... ♪ ♪ ...the little pill with a big story to tell. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." this morning israel and the lebanese group hezbollah accepting a u.s. and french brokered cease-fire. officials hoping it ends nearly 14 months of fighting.

joining us right now is someone who played a key role in crafting the cease-fire. amos hochstein, white house senior adviser for mg investment. great to see you this morning. take us inside these negotiations, but specifically if you could the last 72 hours so we can understand what really changed. >> yeah. thanks, andrew. good to see you. look, this has been the last couple months we've really tried to -- we saw an opportunity here. israel made tremendous gains on the battlefield and we thought this was the right time to try to bring about translating those gains on the battlefield to a permanent cease-fire and so this was clearly very difficult partly because after, as you just said, neal 14 months of fighting and this has been very intensive fighting. there have been over 10 to 15,000 projectiles fired at israel and a serious amount of

bombardment throughout lebron from the -- lebanon to beirut. a heavy war with a lot of casualties and damage. and so -- not only that, but the war is not between israel and lebanon. the war is between hezbollah and iran where hezbollah joined the october 7 attacks just after hours afterwards in the early morning of october 8 launching its attack. the lebanese people never wanted to play a part in this war. how do you put together a cease-fire between two countries when one wasn't even a party to it. that made it complicated but about five, six weeks ago i felt we had a moment of alignment of geopolitics and in the ilts strategy to put this together and we did an intensive push over the last couple months and the last two weeks. >> how permanent and tenuous do you think this agreement is? there are reports now the good news a lot of lebanese being

able to get back to their homes. there's apparently mixed reaction in israel as folks are worried this won't be the end of it, and not everybody is going back to their homes. >> so that's a good question, and there's been a lot of i think misunderstanding of what this is. i saw a lot of networks referring to it as a 60-day cease-fire. it is not a 60-day cease-fire. it is a permanent cease-fire or at least we hope so. the way this works is 4:00 a.m. earlier this morning and local time, so 9:00 p.m. east coast time, the cease-fire went into effect. that meant that the bombardments, the firing all went silent. but the israeli troops that were occupying space in certain clusters in south lebanon are still on the ground and part of that is just the reality that the lebanese army does not have the capacity to be able to deploy forces into the south on an immediate basis. so it needs now to put together

a significant force of over 5,000 troops to be able to deploy south and to maintain those positions. that's going to take some time. this will be a gradual withdraw. by the time we get to 60 days or maybe 50, the israeli troops will be completely gone. so within the first 20 days i expect that we'll see the first troops already withdrawing and then 20 days later we'll see about two-thirds of the troops gone and then the remaining ones at the end. this is -- you asked permanent versus tenuous. i think anything in the middle east is tenuous in no matter what it is. you can't let anything be on its own. what's very different here between things agreement and the one that ended the 2006 war is that we put together for the first time a real mechanism, shared by the united states, with france and others, that will review every violation,

that will insure on the ground that hezbollah is not -- is leaving, number one, is not returning, that it is dismantling of their terrorist infrastructure that israel -- the ones that are remaining from israel's bombardment and that we cannot establish any of those terrorist organizations having a foothold in south lebanon again. these are really heavy and tough tasks, but i think that we've put in place, based on lessons learned from the failures of the previous agreements, of how to do it better. >> amos, we had congressman mike waltz on earlier this week. he is incoming president trump's pick for nsa. he said he had conversations with jake sullivan around a lot of issues, and i just wonder what the involvement or, you know, how much coordination there's been with this incoming administration on this move in particular? >> yeah. so that's a good question. before the election we started coming into the real serious level of discussion here, and

after the elections, when i reached the point where i thought this may happen, i actually spoke to a number of president-elect trump's team, including congressman waltz, to make sure that they were informed, aware, and that they knew what we were talking about because i thought it was just fair and important for them to know what this deal involved, so that as we get a seamless transition on the national security side, to make sure that they have -- they can carry it over. at the end of the day this is in the interest of lebanon, the government of israel voted overwhelmingly for this, it's in the interest -- national security interest of the united states, so i think that this is not an issue of partisanship. this is a matter of national security, and i felt that it was necessary for us to talk to the president-elect's team to make sure that they were informed. >> amos, i'm curious about what

you think about the political strength of bibi netanyahu now in terms of the next steps? obviously, the attention is now going to turn back to gaza and back to hamas, and where you think that goes, how quickly any kind of advancement can be made in that regard? >> so i think this is an important moment because as president biden said yesterday in his remarks in the rose garden, hamas has no come to the table in good faith over the last several months to negotiate a hostage release deal that brings an end to the war in gaza. i think this, hezbollah, remember, for 13 months has said over and over again, we will not allow a cease-fire in lebanon unless there was a cease-fire in gaza, and so the linkage between these two conflicts has been very difficult. we have broken that link, partly because of military gains on the ground, partly because of the diplomatic effort, and so now

hamas is in a position where it knows that hezbollah is no longer coming to its aid, that israel is no longer going to be distracted in a two-front war, but rather just in one, this is the moment that hamas can come to the table, agree to the release of the hostages, and bring about a deal that ends the fighting in gaza. so i think that this is -- this is a moment in time that we have a pressure on hamas to examine to the table -- to come to the table seriously. as the president said yesterday, this is even a moment in time where it's not just about solving gaza. we have an opportunity here to either get to or advance the normalization agreement of saudi arabia and i think that's a real proposition on the table with the lebanon deal now being signed. that's what this deal yesterday opens up. >> amos, i want to thank you. want to thank you for your work

and appreciate it very much. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to you too. >> let's take a final check on the markets this morning. we had a barrage of data that hit at 8:30 because everything that was supposed to be released on thursday and friday got moved up to wednesday. we saw all of this information that showed the economy was doing fairly well. we did not see a huge move in the markets particularly in the treasury market which we'll take a look at in just a moment. the dow futures are up by 50 points. little bit of weakness from both the s&p and nasdaq at this point down by 3 for the nasdaq, down by 40 points for the -- or down by 40 points for the nasdaq and 4 points for the s&p. but again, this is after the s&p and the dow closed at record highs yesterday. if you check out those treasuries we'll take a look at that again, 4.21% where the 2-year stands right now, just before all of that data we saw. the 10-year sitting at 4.26%. we'll be watching that very

closely. crypto still kind of within shot of that $100,000 mark that it almost reached earlier this week. it's at $94,249. and that does it for us today. first of all, want to thank all of our viewers who join us every day. we are thankful for you and we hope you good wednesday morning. kramer has the morning. mild weakness in futures after disappointing tech earnings last night. a jampacked macro calendar today and some new economic staff announcements from the transition.