everyone has goals and dreams. and everyone deserves a way to get there. wherever you're going, getting there starts here. state street. invest in your future with spy, the world's most traded etf. (♪♪) welcome to power lunch. dominic and contessa here. the dow is hitting 45,000 or the first time right out of the opening gate. stocks are pulling back since then. right now the nasdaq is down another % or so >> we have a lot of people getting a head start on line. we are about to enter this crucial holiday time for

retailers. it is called cyber monday. it's make or break for many chains >> we import a lot of oil from canada. >> we will talk to a ceo that says the terror threat is keeping him up at night. his company makes artificial christmas trees. he says of tariffs are increased as proposed, next holiday season could look a lot different. a fascinating conversation. >> i have one of those trees. i love the smell of the real ones but they are such a pain to take up and down. we will get to that story a little later on.

as we mentioned, these next five days are huge for retailers. courtney reagan joins us with more. i just remember how many times we have been at shopping malls or something like that on black friday. i thankfully will not be at a shopping mall. >> before i was a retail performer i used to be with my family. we are moving from big earnings to the big five. the start of the shopping season begins tomorrow. many have already had early cyber deals. it dilutes the spending but it will hit a record high of $650 per person. they also predict 56% of the holiday budget will be spent on the big five. counsel groups say they plan to spend more than last year, but

black friday is still expected to be the busiest shopping day of the year. now that most retailers are again closed pushing store- bought -- store door busters. analytics predicts 70% of holiday spending will be spent during the stretch on the big five. the biggest growth is expected to be a gain of nearly 11%. compared to the week before black friday lasting, it is just up slightly from last year. a pretty steady category of interest. electronics always seem to be some of those door busters. >> hang out here with us. for more on what to expect as the hot -- holiday shopping

season gets underway and what to expect let's bring in deborah and stacy. we heard courtney just laid out there. customers are expected or intend to spend more than last year. that is certainly good news for retailers. where else are you looking for good news? >> the best news i have seen -- happy cyber week by the way. 20% of holiday sales will take place. we are already off to the races. the good news is, i track about 70 companies and so far the overwhelming majority have promotions that are flat to down versus last year. margins in the industry so far are intact. what we have seen, after we just exited q3 earnings is that consumers are willing to pay full price when the product is

good. certainly shoppers will be out there. they are not used to seeing bargains so much anymore because retailers are doing more full price so they will be using a.i. to try to search out those deals. >> it is interesting that you expect macy's and kohl's to be losers. >> when you look at walmart it is up 5%. target, flattish, should have been getting that share. huge disappointment. macy's also disappointing but clearly the are sure losers in business. that's not new news. certainly you have others that are picking up share like walmart. 75% of their comp came from the higher income consumer. that is a big shift. >> do you agree with the assessment of the season and who comes out on top and who

doesn't? >> i think we are forgetting some important new entrants to the market like shein and temu that are being aggressive not only connecting with consumers but also making sure they are staying on top of the deals. i agree with everything stacy said and building on top of that. >> when we are talking about spending and intentions, how do you think this plays out with pricing? stacy was talking about promotions but obviously in general prices are up something like 20% when we compared to 2019. if you are a shopper and you say you are going to spend more is that because you are buying more or because prices are higher? >> we have been very surprised at the amount of pricing work we have done which is unlike anything we have seen. retailers are localizing price

much more than they have in the past. they are thinking about, where can they take margin and where can they invest. this goes back to the comments on walmart because they see significant growth in retail media also known as advertising and data monetization. they can invest in price so that's putting them in a completely different category. >> stacy, correct me if i'm wrong. the last time we ran into each other it was at a grocery store? >> the whole food section. >> right. i am wondering when we talk about these themes about shopping you mention the walmart outperformance and everything else. how much of this is because certain of those stores will get us in the door because we are going to grocery shop and then keep us in the door because we will spend on those discretionary items and not necessarily just at specialty

retailers or department stores traditionally speaking. >> that is exactly why walmart is gaining so much to share. the consumer same, inflation has gone crazy. food inflation at walmart was still at an extra hundred basis points. it is still creeping up. those consumers are happy to shop the value places. either way, they are probably spending on other things. certainly target over the years as they have added that was supposed to be the draw. you spend on discretionary once you get in the door. that does not seem to be happening as much as it should particularly since kohl's are down double digits. >> the casino industry which i follow closely has benefited from this move toward experiences. they think quarter over quarter of showing strong margins, persistent strength especially in las vegas, even where we've

seen softening and regionals they think they are benefiting by consumers and discretionary dollars going toward experiences rather than stuff. to the retailers fear that shift into needing to do stuff more than by stuff? >> this has been happening for a long time. coming out of covid accelerated that pick that's why you hear that word experience so much. i think that's why some are encouraged about returning foot traffic because it's also an activity. it's not an experience exactly as you are talking about but it's more of an experience than sitting on your couch. >> i love that. >> i know that tyler likes in- store shopping as well. i think that they are doing what they can to offer that in- store and trying to be a lifestyle provider in as much as they possibly can, but that

is a big one. i know that i will wait until black friday to get subscription services every year. things like that that i experience spent that i will spend through the year because i will get a good deal. >> thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate your input. happy thanksgiving. still to come, we will take a look at markets ahead of the holiday weekend as we approach the start of the final stretch of the year. let's get a quick power check. as you see on the positive side of the s&p is ulta beauty. on the negative side is hp following disappointing guidance. we will be back after the break.

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each of the three major indices have reached all-time highs since the presidential election, but is the record rally in jeopardy with resident you like donald trump planning new tariffs on imports from china, mexico and canada. our next guest argues the economy is in good shape to handle those tariffs. joining me is stephanie, the chief investment strategist for hightower. she is also a contributor. thank you for joining us. i wonder if you can take us through the reasons why you feel as though it will be constructive as a market and economy given the fact that tariffs may be in the offing and there's been so much negative commentary about the effects on the economy? >> it is great to be here. first and foremost, there are a lot of unknowns. we don't know the numbers or the countries. i think china certainly seems likely.

i think 30% is what i'm thinking as my base case. remember, trump wants to make doing business in china more expensive and he wants supply chains out of china and to go throughout the world including here, the u.s. which would obviously be a beneficiary but also someplace like india which i am bullish on. mexico and canada are little harder to figure out. i don't think it will be 25%. i think it is a negotiation tactic that he's doing. it is also really difficult to change tariffs under nafta policy. i think it will take longer if it happens, but i do think it is more of a negotiation. back to your question, i think the economy can handle higher tariffs because the economy is growing like nicely. we are running at about 2.7%. that is the tracker for for --

for. you guys were talking about at the top of the show the consumer is in good shape. that is 70% of the gdp. we have great personal income data and spending numbers. inflation is still sticky but it's coming down. that bodes well for earnings. from an investment point of view that's what i care about. you can to mid single digit revenue growth. i think the big surprise will be margins. market expansion. even in a higher inflationary environment these companies have pricing power. i am bullish to the end of the year and into the new administration. >> you are not the only one. the general commentary is bullish. if the market is going to go higher and keep marching towards his record levels, it could be a mix of earnings multiple and earnings growth. which do you think is the predominant story in 2025? will it be that we will pay

more or that companies just make more money? >> i think companies out right make more money. i much prefer faster growth in the economy and a little bit more inflation than the opposite. as i mentioned, you can see mid single digit revenues. i believe strongly that margins are poised to move higher. i think you will see something like 8 to 10% earnings growth. i know that some out there are thinking like 50%, i don't know about that but i'm very comfortable paying for non-tech stocks and looking at other sectors that are trading at multiples that are much less than 22 times that do have their earnings growth. >> if we are looking at the markets today you have the dow, s&p and nasdaq lower russell is higher a little bit. the volatility index is up to 1/2%. when you are talking about the

areas you are willing to wait and see for some earnings growth, would you stay in consumer discretionary? i always pay attention when you are talking about casinos but are there other areas you are excited about? >> i think there are haves and have-nots in consumer discretionary. you know that i own las vegas sands. in terms of back home, i think you have had some pretty good retail sales numbers. broadly speaking the government put out a 4.6% year-over-year retail sales number in october. we have pmi and ism services that, the services are close to 60. of course, you have walmart that did well, costco that did well, amazon that did well. >> do you like gap? >> i love it. it's one of my favorite ideas.

it was trending at 12 times earnings with a 3% yield. richard dixon is the new ceo. he actually arrived in november of 2022 but it takes a long time for a ceo to get their hands around the company situation and the changes that need to be made. i think is doing a really good job. they just reported the fourth straight quarter earnings and revenue grew. they have new ceos at old navy. i think the risk reward is really attractive here. >> the other part of the market that will be leadership or maybe should be some kind of leadership is technology. if it's ♪ seven where in technology should investors look for the value? >> there are two places where chief technology officers are spending money. a.i. because companies are trying to figure out what it is for their business and cyber security. cyber security because the

companies can't afford wake up one day and lose their business. i like crowdstrike. i love it down 6% today. i think it is a gift. they had a great quarter. subscription revenues grew 31%. total ar are grew 27%. the guidance was a bit conservative and that's why it's down especially because it was up 25% this past month. i do think it is an opportunity because that's where you will see the total addressable market expand pretty substantially. >> stephanie, thank you. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. let's get to rick in chicago for a look at how the bond market is reacting to the economic data. >> just looking at the bond market you would be hard- pressed to guess what all the data was earlier today. let's look at some 12 hour charts. if you look at the two-year

what i want you to see is when the loan yield of the session was made. that was right as the data was being released. as you move toward the 10 year, 12 hour chart the yield was established right after the seven year note auction. the data may have had some setbacks in terms of consumption, but it was still strong. all in all take the macro view. gdp data nothing. chicago pmi was a bit weak, but it's manufacturing. no surprise there. the big 10:00 eastern data, the income was strong and everybody saying the same thing. inflation data was as expected but it was still sticky. that is the point. we can talk about as expected and watch rates go. the 10 year is about ready to close at a one-month low yield. the reality is that when we

really come back after the holidays next week, i suspect it won't matter that the data was as expected. what investors will pay more attention to is the notion that inflation is sticky and does not seem to be getting less sticky as we move forward through time, especially considering we are still pricing in a quarter-point cut. back to you. i hope you have a very happy and healthy thanksgiving. >> sticky like toffee pudding. happy thksngangivi. after the break we will explore the sharp reversal in the dollar. market navigator is coming up after this.

welcome back to power lunch. what you see is right across the screen the dow is down about 107 points right now. the u.s. dollar has been on a tear but its own pace to snap an eight week winning streak. the incoming administration is promising big changes but what

what that means for the longer- term trajectory of the greenback? our next guest has thoughts on how we got here and where we are headed. joining me is tom fitzpatrick, the managing director of global market insights. a big broker in the midwest. let's talk about the greenback. we all have a vested interest as americans in see in the dollar remain the strongest reserve currency out there. is there hope for the dollar? >> there absolutely is. obviously from the reserve currency there's nothing that will challenge the dollar at this point in time. as we sit here we had a really good move up which as been driven by a number of factors including talk about tariffs and the deficit also, the feedback loop of people talking about the fed going on pause while at the same time maybe going 50 basis points.

that resulted in a very good widening in the interest-rate differential for the u.s. against europe and other places. and the targets that were in place, in the near-term amount of those factors have changed a little bit. the tariff dynamic is beginning to look like it may be less stressful than it was originally looking. we have a situation where scott besson is the nominee for treasury secretary is considered a little bit more hawkish in terms of the deficit. in particular what we have seen is a very big run-in yields as well as the dollar, that has come to a pause and we have seen the yields backup and differentials backup. that's why the dollar has also managed to backup and lose some ground. >> what is the forecast and how would you look at it?

is the trajectory medium to longer term still positive or negative for the u.s. dollar? >> i would say it is still positive. i would be cautious right now and into december for a couple of reasons. number one, we need to see the yield dynamic reappear. we needed to start to push back up again. we need the differentials to widen up again. that can come in terms of the economic backdrop. there is no scare in terms of the inflation numbers today, so the market is still on pace to believe that. for seven years in a row the dollar index has actually fallen into december to in excess of 1 1/2%. i think you have to be fairly careful in terms of this trade. i'm looking at the fixed income side of the equation.

there will be more stimulus antiregulation environment. even though the fed does not posit december will get more cautious on policy while at the same time somewhere like europe is getting more aggressive in terms of easing policy. i think that backdrop should see a reemergence of strength. we may have to wait till we get into the new year before we see that start to materialize. >> the strong dollar policy may still be in effect. thank you very much. happy thanksgiving. >> same to you. after the break, stocks to be thankful for. a thanksgiving edition of three stock lunch. take a look at shares of uber dipping lower. the ftc is looking into whether uber violated consumer protection laws with its

subscription object. we are waiting to hear from both the ftc and uber. we will be right back.

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welcome back to power lunch. this is your cnbc news update. israel said it will appeal the arrest warrant against prime minister benjamin netanyahu for alleged war crimes calling it baseless. meanwhile he said he plans to introduce legislation in the u.s. that would sanction any country that tries to enforce the warrant. republican ohio governor mike dewine signed a bill into law that will bar transgender students from using the bathrooms that will fit their gender identities. it will apply to students from kindergarten through college at ohio public and private schools. stoler -- solar storms could make the northern lights visible across the u.s. at

thanksgiving. meteorologist say how vibrant and how long it lasts will depend on how intense the storms get. they predict the best viewing time will be after 10:00 thursday night into friday morning. >> we are supposed to get rain. while you are saying this we are looking at the forecast to figure out whether or not we can catch the northern lights. >> wait until friday morning.'s time for three stock lunch. in the spirit of the holiday we asked for three stocks our trader is thankful for. we have tina sanchez chief market strategist also was cnbc contributor. the first stock, i love the idea we are doing stocks we are grateful for. you are grateful for microsoft. >> obviously it's an incredibly strong company that in particular a machine learning risk management startup.

microsoft gave us a sponsorship in the start a program. they have been doing this across a number of startups. they gave open a.i. when they started. they are building up a business. obviously if you look at the recent earnings, the cloud growth slowed a little bit but it was more of a constraint of what they can do. the demand is there but they are continuing to increase capacity and make significant investments. they just bought three mile island to use nuclear to power chat gpt. the outlook is enormous but for us in particular, as a start up and building out our machine learning process and software, microsoft is an enormous partner. they will gain a lot of business from us over the years from it. >> i'm sure there are a lot of long-term shareholders that also think microsoft is one to be thankful for.

let's talk about the next one. peloton. the ones that got in at the right time i thankful but the other long-term holders not so much. why are you thankful? >> if you follow my view on peloton during the entirety of the pandemic i was negative on it because it was so overvalued. today you can argue it still looks overvalued. however, i do think much of it was about leadership and what leadership is going to do. barry mccarthy was very effective stemming the flow of losses. they have gotten maller and smaller so now there is momentum. what we have seen is the user base which is still reasonably small but it is there and very loyal it is something you can build on. now we have peter stern who is coming in with a breadth of experience not only in the house and active space, but

also coming from ford and their experience and really where they need to focus is on figuring out how to reduce their costs on the manufacturing site in order to stem that. that is the piece of the puzzle they have not it out. peter stern has the chops to be able to figure it out and exercise a turnaround story. it is obviously a longer-term story. it will be a breather and probably another bite at the apple but i do think the company has at least proven it can get past those huge pandemic darling days and have user ship. quite frankly a very strong high-margin prescription product they can build on. >> there will always be a need for exercise. figuring out how to meet people where they are is top of the list. last on your list is walt disney slightly outperforming

the s&p 500. i guess it is personal reasons here? >> that is what is interesting. peloton i love because it helped me work off what is about to happen at thanksgiving and every day because i'm working so hard on a startup. disney is part of that story. if you look at the earnings the streaming of revenue which is now included is a big part of what is driving the business. they have the huge blockbuster deadpool and wolverine, inside- out 2. those continue to drive streaming demand. disney plus was a huge beneficiary of the success they were having in the entertainment space. all of these things for me have sort of become part of my life. i basically peloton to disney these days so that whole

experience is important to me. >> there is nothing like mickey mouse cheering you. i'm not going to do the mickey mouse was for you. i know you were expecting that but it's not going to happen. >> i'm just waiting for tootles to come help us. >> tina, thank you. a prisoner swap between the u.s. and china bringing home three americans but releasing he ccused chinese spy. weavthe context coming up next.

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this morning the biden administration announcing the release of three americans who were being held in china. in exchange the u.s. handed over two prisoners accused of spying, one of whom profiled in a recent cnbc documentary. we have more on that story. >> reporter: that is right. two chinese agents were released as part of a prisoner swap. a u.s. official confirms to me that one of the spies was a chinese ministry of state security officer. he was the central character in

our documentary on chinese espionage last year after his dramatic arrest in belgium for attempting to steal technology from ge aviation. he was serving a 20 year prison sentence. the other man exchanged in 2023 was sentenced to eight years in prison for acting illegally within the united states as an agent of the people's republic of china. the government said he was working for chinese intelligence and had joined the army reserved. the americans released had been detained since 2012, accused of drug trafficking sentenced to death. a businessman detained since 2016 on espionage charges, and a man who was accused of being an american spy and sentenced to life imprisonment in 2023. the release was the result of years of diplomatic work including an effort by president biden last month when

he pressed for the return of the americans during a meeting with the chinese president in peru on the sidelines of the apex summit. a lot of work behind the scenes here. the release really underscores china's efforts to conduct espionage not just against the american government and also against american companies. remember the target was ge aviation. >> how likely will he say continued dialogue to bring home and conduct these prisoner swaps in the incoming administration? what do you think the relationship would be like given the rhetoric we've already seen and heard? >> i think the rhetoric will be tough but some of this kind of work will happen behind the scenes. it's in the interest of both countries. china does not want its spies stranded here for 20 years. this was the first time the united states had ever arrested and extradited a minister of

state security officer and held him in a u.s. prison. maybe there will be more of those and maybe china will want them back as well so we might see a future where we have this kind of below the radar continued diplomatic engagement. the espionage cases themselves are clearly not going to stop. they will continue to target american industry. >> thank you for that. if they would like to see our documentary viewers can do so on youtube. while trump's terex, we knew that they were targeting china but now they are targeting mexico and canada as well. >> we spoke to one ceo that said those threats are keeping him up anit t ghand he's not even in energy. that is coming up on power lunch.

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appreciate it so much. thank you. doors are new beginnings. -surprise! -surprise! your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. for you, mama. through personalized money management that can evolve with new chapters. and they can proactively view your entire portfolio. with an eye on taxes and the impact of risk. so you can enjoy moments together. because doors were meant to be opened. welcome back to power lunch. president elect donald trump's plan on tariffs, the plan for negotiating deals centers around tariffs on goods coming in from canada including crude

oil. we have a look at the impact of those tariffs on energy prices when the goal is to lower energy prices. >> energy markets are global. especially with our neighbors these supply chains are very much linked. when it comes to oil more than half of u.s. imports are from canada. three quarters of that goes to the midwest and rocky mountain regions which re pipeline constrained. in terms of christ -- pricing got either the canadians discount the price of their oil to account for the tara for u.s. producers raise the price of their oil to import price parity which could drive up prices at the pump. the estimated 25% tariff translates to more than $0.40 per gallon of death -- gas. the u.s. uses about 50 million pounds of uranium per year but next to nothing is produced domestically. about a quarter of u.s. uranium

comes from canada. if utilities have to buy at a higher price that will likely be passed to consumers. christopher from the canadian nuclear association said this is not good news for canada but also not good news for the u.s. our nuclear ecosystems are tied together at a time when the industry is trying to relaunch this would cause significant headaches and uncertainty over whether or not it's a bargaining chip or actual policy. >> it is funny. when you are talking about those tariffs in canada, christmas trees don't have any tariffs and what we see is the promise that all canadian exports that could come into the united states and we are the biggest market for canada. you wonder whether the tree producers would have to follow that. either you lower your prices or everyone will raise their prices and that causes christmas trees to go up. >> there's a lot of specialized looks like trees or uranium.

there's not really another source. we've had these relationships for so long. >> speaking of christmas trees this is the most wonderful time of the year if you sell them. balsam hill is a leading provider of artificial trees along with other decorations. the terrorist threat means not always cheery and bright. the founder and ceo of balsam brands, it is good to talk to you. we were having a conversation on the phone and you said it's an issue that is keeping you up at night. >> the uncertainty of the tariffs is something we've been thinking about for a long time but with just a couple social media post it sent our team into crisis management mode of what are we going to do to manage these potential 10% tariffs on china, 20% and mexico. we have had to jump into action heading into the biggest we can of the year where what we want to focus on is how do we join -- bring joy to customers.

we do 15% of our sales over the next five days. >> how many of your products that you sell through either the catalog or online, how many come from mexico and how many come from china? >> a small amount come from mexico. reinvested under the last trump administration. the uncertainty has made it hard to justify investing more capital there. mexico is also a higher labor rate for us. the vast majority are sourced from countries all over the world even europe. a lot of what we make is made by artisans but the vast majority are mostly coming out of china. the 10% tariff some people think it might be bigger, that's a big threat to our business. what is so interesting is if you think of our industry, artificial christmas trees, it's born out of the fact that americans do not want to string lights on their trees. the biggest reason people go artificial and four out of five

homes have artificial if they don't like that in the lights on. it's just more convenient. this is not a product that will come back here. >> you can't even pay americans to put lights on trees? >>'s 20 years ago summer made here but when the industry went pre-lit americans were like, i don't want to do this on my own tree but i don't want to sit for eight hours a day and put lights on trees. we exist because we have outsourced this to lower cost areas where people take the time to meticulously put the lights on trees so we can focus on decorating and celebrating christmas rather than putting lights on trees. >> i am one of those households within artificial tree. i do have one for the convenience factor. one of the things that happens this time of year is a lot of advertisement on things like the hallmark channel. i know because my wife and mother and mama are massive hallmark channel fans. they look at the advertisements for balsam hill. it's an all-american audience you are targeting.

how difficult would it be to make your products in america and why would you not consider doing it? >> we worked on this started in 2019 looking at how can we change how artificial trees are made in the united states. we got to a point where tree we would sell today we might be able to make it in the united states with automation and sell it around $3000. i just don't think americans are willing to pay for that. we have tried all sorts of different ways. we will continue to look for it but there is so much labor that goes into making a handcrafted tree it is so hard to do it even looking at robots and those kinds of things. >> i know the issue of the decorah and ornaments you could have tariffs on depending on where they are coming from. just one more question, a lot of other manufacturers in textiles for instance went to vietnam to try to avoid the whole tariff situation.

if not the united states could he go to another country that has more favored trade status and make the trees there? >> yes we could move trees. the thing with moving trees is that it is very capital intensive. we have equipment like the size of a football field for one machine. may be a phased approach could be more beneficial. some production since 2019 has moved to cambodia or indonesia. we are part of the trend but it's not something we can do overnight just because of the capital. these plants can cause $50-$100 million. even if you can move some of the equipment it's a big endeavor and we need some certainty as what will remain as a most favored nation location. we invested in mexico but we might have a 25% tariff.

it is really hard as a business owner to make the investment when you don't know what is coming next. >> thank you so much. good luck to you and happy thanksgiving. you can always listen to us on our podcast. he sure to follow and listen where ever you go. we will be back after this. well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

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welcome back to power lunch. the dow is down just about 126 points. modest but notable, because as you can see, we're near the session lows right now. out of the gate this morning, the dow did jump to a new record high of 45,003. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq down more than the dow today. we're on track for a positive week st. rally post-election

does continue, at least for now. >> for the rest of the week eyes turn to shopping and how the retailers are doing. >> it's interesting, in my early days in business news, i used to go to the floor of the new york stock exchange, because friday is family day. so you see all the kids and everything else. >> awesome. >> anyway, thanks for watching power lunch. we wish you and everybody else out there a happy thanksgiving. >> and closing bell starts right now. come on down friday, still doing family day. i'm mike santoli in for scott. a sharp turn away from tech stocks and other big year-to-date winners. here's a look at our scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 dipping below the 6,000 level mod esly before rebounding a bit to the verge of it. the nasdaq 100 feeling the mos