up. the s&p futures up five points. the nasdaq by about 15. honestly early, but it is a holiday shortened trading day. for the month of november it has been pretty phenomenal for the markets overall. we want to thank you both for being here. we've been listening to some songs here. thank you, everybody. that doesn't for us today. make sure you join us again next week. right now it is time for squawk on the street. good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. futures are fairly steady on this final trading day of november. shortened session. speaking of bonds, the road map begins with the last trading

day of the month. the s&p i'm pace for the best month since february. >> a closer look at retailers back friday strategies as shoppers across the country hit the stores. >> the f.t.c. opens an investigation of microsoft. will it continue in the next administration? >> let's begin with the markets. we mentioned some of the month to date, but you look at year- to-date consumer can -- discretionary. >> it has been pretty broad- based. i think one of the more interesting stories, the round- trip that we have seen for bond yields since the election is now at a level that is lower than where we were before the election. we are going back to end of

october levels. what does that tell us about how the market is processing the economic outlook? potentially you have this rally today and a selloff on the dollar on alleviated trade tensions. that has become front and center now that president-elect trump put out on truth social he had a very productive call with the mexican leader president sheinbaum. both were very productive and according to him she's going to do something about the border. according to her that already been doing it. for the market is okay, we can maybe not expect 25% tariff on mexican imports. >> as far as bonds go month and short covering we are down $.30 the naming. are there fears about nfp

coming up? we will see. >> that is next friday and it is the big job support. all signs point to a pretty healthy job market. if it is not you can always blame the weather and the hurricanes which did factor into last month's numbers. after we got the fats preferred inflation number exactly am i with expectations, may be elevated, but in my. they do not want to see that. that's a throw them off the path of cutting rates in december? a weaker job number was certainly increase the chances. the market is already there. >> we are going to talk about relative tech weakness, david. we mention this report on wednesday called it is beginning to look a lot like tech mass. nvidia bouncing a little bit today. all the big ones have some sort of headline risk whether that is microsoft, four, this

australian bill banning social media for kids under 16 now official law? >> it will be interesting to see how they implement that. i know it has been some coverage. you can take a look at nvidia shares which of course we track very closely for any number of very obvious reasons. a couple days earlier in the week prior to the holiday i brought this up many times. the pretraining models in terms of advancement being made. do you need the same kind of computing power for inference that you do for training? some of these becoming questions. it seems hard to imagine, particularly given the fact that nvidia is an entire solution so to speak and a lot of software as jim likes to point out any number of times. a lot of software is brought to bear to sort of make the data

center a supercomputer which is really what is talked about. what is done by so many hyperscalers. >> it is sitting right at the 50 day. we are looking to see what direction it travels. got a downgrade of hp today. >> i think it's interesting that the market rally so strongly even without the leadership of semis. we are up 5% in november and tracking the best month since back in february. tracking best year since 2021. well semis have been a key leadership position most of the year and not so much in december. it was more inclusive of things like cyclicals. financials, i think we have o

pause on. especially since the election on the view that there will not be a tough regulation. there will be capital markets activity and higher for longer. that has been a theme. ultimately better for bank profitability. >> let's talk more about the markets. happy black friday. happy to have you. you've been writing a lot about the coming year, actually the next few years. i know we've talked a lot about your 7k target and your 10k target down the road. to sarah's point, is that healthy on a net basis? >> absolutely. if you remember when this got started it was kind of like the rodney dangerfield market. we argue give it some time and it will brought in. we have certainly seen this go

on fire. then the s&p 400 i think it will do increasingly well. >> what do you think is going on with these fields? our bond vigilantes commence there will be constructive work done at this administration? >> absolutely. i think the incoming administration placated the bond vigilantes by basically acknowledging we have a problem with the deficit and the new incoming treasury secretary is somebody who has a lot of market experience. he is kind of like one of us if you will when the market looks at this administration. the fact that they are going to go after spending and they are going to try to raise the revenues maybe with the across- the-board tariffs at the shows they are cognizant of the

problem and maybe they are kind of having a bill clinton moment. remember when bill clinton was warned by his advisers don't mess with the bond vigilantes and we actually had a very conservative school quality back then. >> analogs to the mid-90s are pretty positive and there has been worked on looking at what happens when you bring the budget deficit relative to gdp lower. it is an everything rally, is it not? >> the only risk is it becomes too much of a good thing. we are kind of on the edge. we have evaluation multiples which are quite elevated. we have the forward p.e. around 22 and about the ratio around 2.8. we've got warren buffett himself raising a lot of cash which kind of has everyone somewhat concerned. all in all i think the bull market is still very much here and continues into the next

year. i do not see a recession. recessions are usually caused by credit crunches and that is not happening with the fed inclined to lower interest rates. it is not happening with the price of oil unable to have a rally with geopolitical risk which seems to be narrowing. the only thing left to worry about i think is tariffs. right now it looks like they are being effectively used for negotiating purposes. >> there have been so many flows because of all these reasons we are talking about. for the month the heaviest influence on record. you want to just continue the trend or do you want to go somewhere contrarian like europe where everyone hates right now? >> you're asking the wrong person. i have been recommending stay at home versus go global since 2010. it has been on fire recently. maybe it is worth looking

overseas a little bit. i am going to recommend continuing to stay at home. by the way, i don't like what you just said. talk about contrary indicators. when foreigners really discover the u.s. that can be a contrary indicator. that doesn't necessarily mean you want to go overseas. i am not ruling out the possibility that we will have some sort of pullback. i like it better than corrections and bear markets. we can have a pullback. right now we still have a santa claus rally in my opinion. >> he was here on wednesday and he is going to be around. >> appreciate it very much. talk soon. thanks.

>> bargain hunters headed to malls across the country looking to get an early jump on black friday deals. let's get more from courtney. how does it look? >> good morning. traffic is picking up. the longest line was at little lemon. it is expected to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year. a number of consumers already got a head start. fresh sales data shows us consumer spent a record $6.1 billion on thanks giving day. of almost 9% year-over-year. toys were among the best discounts on thanks giving, peeking around 27% off listed price. electronics shortly behind that, by apparel at 20% -- 23% off. those by now pay later trends are still driving higher, driving $430 million in online thanksgiving day spending and

up over 10% over last night giving day. adobe analytics projects 70% of shoppers plan to shop online today, spending about $11 billion that would be the biggest expected growth rate for any of these big cyber fives compared to last year. nearly 132 million consumers are 72% of all americans will shop in some way today. according to the national retail federation almost two thirds say they are going to shop specifically in store. retail next are forecasting slight traffic growth for stores on black friday versus last year, even though overall traffic is down about 3% so far this year. retail conversion rates for their ratio purchases made from browsing will likely be lower on or around black friday then the days and weeks leading up to christmas when frankly time is running out and you have to just press the button. for many americans those stores

remain supreme. 53% said they are shopping in store because i want to take advantage of door buster deals. 48% say the in-store deals are just the best. the weather is always an x factor on a day like black friday. across most of the country a very little chance for precipitation. retail is up your excuses, at least when it comes to whether. hit the stores. come on out. the deals are good. >> i love the weather report. and a lot of them have been blaming warmer weather. it feels like they are high in early this time of year and lisa my email inbox. do you agree with that? what does it say about the man and what we can expect from profits? >> i think the deals are pretty good. i believe i saw the average

online discount yesterday was around 27%. toys saw the biggest discount yesterday. i think 30%-40% off is what you are going to see. tvs most likely to be the best discounts today. interestingly if you read between the lines of those sales numbers they say they have seen 26 straight months of declining prices year-over- year. price is actually down 3% compared to last year. i know we talked a lot about inflation. we are talking about key shopping categories and a lot of prices are lower and that makes the discount even better. >> they should say come in before the tariffs hit. they should advertise. >> targets say up to 50% on thousands of items. i thought for two does make sure you are going to go to the taylor swift eras book. >> i wonder if this taylor

swift collaboration can turn it around? they also have the vinyl album from torture poets department. i think they are the only one. >> they get a lot of those every time she puts them out. that is her go to retailer. >> courtney reagan. when we come back microsoft facing a ranging probe. we will take a look at the premarket as we do have this shortened session. stay with us.

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keeping an eye on shares of microsoft this morning. at this point the shares do not appear to be giving up much of anything despite the news that the f.t.c. is conducting a fairly broad investigation on antitrust rounds. i am told that has been the probe ongoing for the last six

months. broadly speaking looking at the cloud business a.i., cybersecurity and perhaps even more importantly the bundling of any number of products. with their azure cloud offering. of course antitrust scrutiny is nothing new for microsoft. you have to go over and quarter of a century back when the department of justice and microsoft tussled for years. it was having to do with netscape browser and the like. the key uestion is does this continue under the incoming trump administration? we have discussed the market will be focused in part on who takes a job at the f.t.c. and who takes the job at the department of justice overseeing mergers as well. we don't have the answers as yet. it will be important. there is an expectation.

you are going to have a much freer hand in corporate america to do deals. for probes like this one it also becomes important. is it possible it will be continued under a trump administration? i assume, but it will be less likely. >> in terms of deals, mergers and these sorts of things which we have seen with the truck 1.0 administration. they were the ones who launch these deals -- probes. >> they launch the google monopoly which is already been found in favor of the government. now they are dealing with the remedy. that is the big one that was launched under the previous trump administration. >> may be a higher likelihood with something like this. analysts are not convinced.

and if a parting gift for big tech and it will probably go away. >> that very well may be the case. as we point out any number of times with these probes not to mention when they actually do bring legal action this goes on for years. we are still dealing with the outcome of google and that won't be determined for many years despite it being begun under the previous trump administration. >> it was kind of hard to argue any of this uncertainty about regulation over the last four years have found anything to impair tech spending plans. >> no. that is a separate issue in terms of willingness to extend numbers the likes of which we have never seen. all of the so-called ar spending is going to be under some scrutiny as we move into 2025. with that that we have seen a

depressed level of mergers and acquisitions. a good amount is a result of the scrutiny of the f.t.c. led by lena khan. that is going to change, we just don't yet know what the true impact will be. >> when we come back apple and amazon hoping for a magnificent run to end 2024. we will look at what to expect this holiday season. take another look at futures. looking to end the week and the month on a high note. futures up 80, already a 5% for the month of november tracking for our best month since february. more squawk on the streewh ce ckn is black friday .

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>> wti crew trying to avoid a fourth negative month as some of these supply risk ease. meantime what are say o.p.e.c. and allies postpone sunday productions policy meeting. they are said to be discussing a delay of the plan output height for q1 2025. meanwhile the cease-fire appears to be holding for the most part. gas prices near the lows of the year which is important on black friday. >> it is definitely a consumer tailwind. the o.p.e.c. plus delay is interesting. they are only delaying a few days. there is chatter. there was a note from commerzbank analyst saying they are going to delay by at least three months. that is annual speculation at this point. they have delayed before

because of what people think they are worried about in the oversupply situation. that could continue to move quickly. that could theoretically move oil prices higher. people are watching this carefully. >> there is the opening bell. it is american express celebrating a small business saturday happening tomorrow. the nasdaq celebrating is recent ipo and a.i. provider. sarah spoke with steve spool earlier in the week. >> they started back in 2010 to try to bring back some life to american small businesses. 15 years then and it is expected to generate $200 million in sales. steve talked a lot about the state of small business where it hasn't been as optimistic as we have seen necessarily in

stock prices or big business because they are still dealing with wage inflation, availability of workers, and all the things that have been big issue for big business. obviously key component of our economy and higher reading. i think there is plenty of demand for workers. we will get the jobs report next week. it hasn't been as rosy of a picture. something we will watch postelection. >> we did set a record this year for new business applications in the united states. >> that is a good sign of confidence. look, the market is having another good day, another good week, and pretty good year. >> i would say 26% of the s&p and 27% on the nasdaq counts as a good year. at the beginning of the year i think our conversations with so many of the strategists who

follow the market, they would not have anticipated a game like this, certainly not coming off of a 20+ percent gain the year previous. obviously 22 was a very rough year for the market. that has now been put in the rearview mirror. that year was unique in the sense of it doesn't matter whether it was bonds or stocks, you got crushed. this year obviously very different. >> jpmorgan pointed out best election-year returns for stocks since 1926. >> is the fact that we have that at the time where the federal reserve's started cutting and indicates a bias to do more where we -- it comes to cutting interest rates at a time where the economy never slowed into recession and we do even get such a soft landing. maybe that is coming, but it hasn't been too soft.

it's not too bad for the stage after we have over a year of tightening. that is why 2022 is so bad. now we have a inflation rate that has come down. we quibble over 2.5 down to 2%. we are a far cry away from the levels we were seeing a few years ago coming out of covid. that has been the underpinning. where a.i. has exploded there has been a lot of bullishness. the chief equity strategist at bank of america has been writing a lot about this idea of an a.i. bubble. the question for him is whether he continues or rather it pops. he's not afraid to use the bubble word, the over evaluation period >> you got some great charts. one looks at u.s. versus

europe. europe's underperformance relative to the u.s. his argument is you start buying international in q2. >> because everyone hates europe so much. china had a good night overnight. a more than 2% gain in the chinese stock market. why? i don't know, rumors and speculations of stimulus. it is thought to maybe pick up. there's going to be a planning meeting and maybe they will finally do stimulus in a way the market is craving, especially now with the trump tariff threats. >> the feeling is they have simply not taken the bazooka so to speak to particularly the local level where there is conceivably, i mean it depends on whose numbers you look at, but is much as trillions in overall indebtedness which needs to be dealt with to some

extent. >> the c.s.i. was up more than 2%. as far as how the world is reacting super interesting this interview that the president of the ecb gave to the financial times. she went there in a way that i don't think jay powell will go as far as talking about what europe should do and their strategy around trump trait threats. she's talking about a trade war. this could be a no one's interests. this would reduce a global reduction in gdp. when she called on europe to negotiate and not to retaliate. in other words take out your checkbook and make a deal. it is her read of how to deal with president-elect trump. she is wanting, and again this is on the leadership and not the european central bank to buy more american products and don't put retaliatory tariffs on it and don't create more friction.

if a trade war is going to hurt gdp that makes her life harder. >> a lot we don't know when it comes to trade. obviously we started off talking about china. i will maintain that is a big question. i think a hope is there will be negotiations and it will just be a tariff here, they are, everywhere. it will be part of a larger negotiation. some of which did happen in the first trump administration. it did not have a significant inflation and pack. >> it also wasn't as targeted at europe. on this idea of fair trade, why did the chevys cost $100,000 in europe? if there are some concessions that europe can make on that front maybe that was satisfied. >> in europe they are really dealing with the influx of

chinese e.v.'s. >> did you see the time speeds? >> yeah. >> a big times piece about china now the largest exporter of cars surpassing the u.s., south korea, germany, japan. they've got more capacity, they got double the capacity to make cars than their own consumers to possibly use. >> the question then becomes what policies will be put in place to prevent them from simply putting out a business to some extent and flooding the marketplace? with that also said it is different than it was five or six years ago. the chinese control the battery of technology in the world for the most part. i think that is a fair statement. they have leverage that perhaps they didn't have previously when it comes to things like a

trade war, unless we just don't bother with e.v.'s. >> americans don't want them as much. they cannot sell them here in america. europe is moving on higher tariffs. the fear in part is they will flood the market like that it was solar panels and crush overall autos. this is a center of pride. certainly the auto business and a lot more political will for leaders. we saw this in the biden administration and probably trump too. especially with elon musk right there with president-elect trump advising him. >> the market cannot escape elon musk. i don't know if you saw his tweet about hasbro where he was responding about how dnd was intended for a remote audience. it is the number two gainer this morning on the s&p. >> so he's moved on from msnbc?

>> he is everywhere. >> he was at thanks giving dinner next to the president. >> 25% of their output.com from shanghai. those don't end up here, but those that are made at that factory do end up in other markets as well outside of china. it will be interesting to see the influence musk has . >> the other thing that he said which i think is a bit of interest to wall street is he put out another tweet saying delete the consumer financial protection bureau. there is a lot of regulatory agencies and i think there will be a lot of companies and seagulls in corporate america in the financial space that will be very happy to delete cfp b. >> now the question is if it

has been beneficial for consumers. i have seen some things that indicate what about a 17+ billion dollars that have been returned. >> you know who would really put up a huge fight on back? senator elizabeth warren who in her ex profile, in her bio page it says mom and then in parentheses her kids names and then cfpb. she considers herself the mother of that too. she puts it on the same weight as her children. look it up. >> let's dig a bit more into a.i. how things are positioned for this holiday season as well. kind of a mixed picture right now. let's start off talking about amazon. i'm reading some of your notes.

they are ramping investment and that might help the optics with their services. empty calories you say, self- funded revenue lift. you also go on to say there are some obvious weaknesses there as well. you don't sound like a man who loves amazon even though you have a buy in it. >> the stock has done decently. it is a large company with his arms in a lot of places. i think you should own amazon. i do think that aws has not been accelerated by a.i. that could happen. probably will happen. they have been losing share in a.i. to azure and to google. i think that can improve as they improve their capabilities. the biggest kind of support has

been this tremendous margin story. it is almost like whatever happens on the top lines the margins have been so strong. it is a compelling element to that store. that almost outweighs the rest of it. >> the reason we think of amazon is because of e- commerce. does it even matter? has it still moved the needle for amazon? >> is very interesting. amazon has decelerated basically in line with industry averages. the fastest growth would be walmart right now. amazon is not growing as fast as walmart right now. one level could be concerning. the margin expansion has been so powerful that it was hard to really worry about that.

e-commerce is still outgrowing by a few percentage points overall. it is still a growth story. you have these new elements factored in on top of that with advertising right at the forefront. that is enough, we think, to keep amazon interesting and to make the stock one that you want to own on a relative basis at this moment. >> what about apple as a holiday shopping claim? >> we do believe that apple is not really a holiday play. we do think iphone growth will be accelerated as they roll out more broadly and more impactful he there a.i. features. but that is a next year story. this year gratified that the demand has been as stable as it has been, given the changes and their slow start, but we come up better to a better day to come. we do believe the stock will

anticipate that. we think that makes apple also a stock that you want to own here, but not for holiday sales. really for next year. >> any concern about buffett selling their apple steak at brookshire? >> not really. clearly he is a great investor. clearly he is not perfect. clearly he has his own particular kind of situation that may not be everyone's situation. you look at that. you say he's a smart guy who has been very successful and he is lightening up after a terrific run. i am not looking at my stocks relative to when brookshire hathaway got into them. i'm looking at them relative to where you want up with them today. i do believe today apple will benefit from an improving story. >> on that note, is it really

possible to understand when the inflection will take place in terms of when consumers will become delighted with the offerings and or start telling their friends and you have that move up in terms of demand? >> i think the one thing that we do know with rates certainly right now is the features are not available yet so there is not a lot of people to talk about. there is a very good reason to believe when the features become available there will be more interest than there is today. i think that the other thing that is clear is it doesn't take a ton of incremental interest for the iphone trajectory to be interesting with more than a billion of these devices installed around the world. there are natural sales just from replacement as your iphones deteriorate and become obsolete. and little bit of increment

around a.i. can go a long way. they had a very strong sales trajectory with the 12. those phones are pretty much at the point where they need to be replaced. there should be a replacement cycle into a.i. on top of that. we will see how big it is. >> without a doubt. will be focused on it when that occurs. always appreciate your time. while apple shares have underperformed by a couple percentage points this year they have regained the top ranking in terms of market cap. thank you again. >> nvidia down 7% since its last earnings. it is time for the bond report. let's check out how treasuries are faring. yields have been lower over the last few trading sessions and that continues today. below 4.2. takes you back to october 30

before the election. two year yield lowest since november 8. we have been saying treasuries have this nice come back rally. perhaps helping the equity market rally further. we will be right back. ♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪

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>> as we close out the week taking a look at some of the top performers. amazon, quite a few retailers as we work our way into black friday. speaking of you can join kramers investment club. get access to its daily insight and handpicked stocks. take advantage of the best deals of the year by going to cnbc.com. we are back in a minute .

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in theaters now. >> shoppers already out in force from this black friday. auto dealers hoping their deals will give them the kind of boost they experienced before

the pandemic. phil joins us this morning with part of that. >> good morning. this weekend could be a nice capper for a december that is building momentum for the auto industry especially if they had into november. when you look at the month of november a couple of things stand out. stronger sales and higher incentives, the average transaction price continues to edge down a little bit. now with 45,471. an estimated sales rate of 16.5 million. all of this data coming to us from jd power. now remember the beginning of the year people said we are going to hit $60 million in auto sales? that ain't going to happen. most believe is going to be maybe 15.8, which would be a slight increase from the 15 1/2 billion we saw last year. in terms of the dealerships we are not back to the days that we saw maybe 8-10 years ago

when you saw big blows on the cars and people coming in and making deals and dealers looking to make deals on black friday. you will see more business this year and this weekend is expected to be a relatively strong one. it helps that the incentives are up substantially. 45%-50% greater this year. the profit for vehicle still halfway decent. it comes out to about $82,000. that is the expectation. we are going to be showing you the big three here. they are all moving higher in large part because they continue to do well with the average profit for the sniper vehicle. the auto loan rate continues to come down a little bit. now one average 6.45%. guys, back to you.

>> you're here reminds me of the adam jonas note earlier in the week where he says the consumer is resilient, not sure if he's resilient enough for a 35% tariff. >> if we truly see 25% they will not be resilient enough. we went through this during the first trump administration where there were threats that there would be major changes to what was happening in terms of auto production. never really developed that way. what is more interesting getting back to the previous conversation, china. what does the trump administration say to mexico about allowing the chinese to set up auto manufacturing in mexico? that is probably where we will see things come down in terms of a real fight with the mexican government. >> all right, phil. we will talk a little bit. coming up, legendary sportscaster al michaels on everything from streaming to black friday football.

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you're good. -very good. good friday morning. welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. i'll sara eisen with david faber and stock market closes at 1:00 p.m. eastern time and it looks like a gain for the week and the month. we've got pretty broad baited rally. information technology bounces back some of the semis that have underperformed for the month, higher today, talking north dakota, qualcomm and lamb

research and consumer discretion going strong and tesla is up again and utilities and communication services catching a bid and you have financials anl materials lower today. but they've been some big winners on the month. the bond market closed at 2:00 p.m. today as well. we've got a rally in treasury. 10-year yield and two year below 2% as well. could be helpful. 30 minutes into the trading session, here are three big movers. retail a key focus as the busiest five-day stretch of the year rolls around. got the spider and the rtf on pace for the best month since february along the s&p 500. we'll talk top picks in a moment. coffee prices hitting new record highs this morning up. 30% in november on pace for the best monthly gain since february of 2014. some concerns about drought there brazil helping coffee

futures shoot up. bitcoin, lower on the week but on the green today. still up 40% since trump was re-elected. but today it is all about the consumer. it is black friday. we're wondering the state of the consumer, which matters most to the economy. so i prepared a few charts to tell us how the consumer should be doing and number one, and carl you mentioned this, retail gas prices. we've seen lower gas prices. remember earlier in the year and throughout last few years it is all about inflation, high gas and food prices. well guess what. they've come down pretty significantly right now in terms of retail gas prices. around $3 levels. so that is certainly helpful. i also prepared food at home, which is grocery price inflation. and if you look, we're getting much smaller increases month to month. so this is the month to month chart compounded. down to 0.1% gains on the cpi

report and that is a steady decrease. so it should start to make people feel a little better. again, you've got the cumulative price shop paying 25%, 30% more on prices versus the last few years and that is potentially what was a big swing factor in the election as well. as far as continuation of the price increases, that is come down a lot. i'll put in wages, that is a good story as well. should bode well for the consumer. we've seen steady and real wage growth, growing faster than inflation. so that is good. even when we took a dip, we have rebounded from that. we'll get a new report next week on the jobs report for november and see where wages go. but they have on the steady climb up. an then just the s&p 500, for those exposed to market trading at a record high. also should make consumers feel better, especially high income consumers that are exposed and there is the look at all three of them. overall, not a bad picture. >> no, it is a pretty good

picture. in fact, when you put them altogether like that, it makes one wonder who the democrats managed to lose that election. given how strong everything is, sara, in a real way. >> and you've seen it in the sentiment indexes and the polls that they just felt lousy, despite some of these better fundamentals. and i think there is something to that impact of inflation. we remember in 2019 when beef prices were a lot lower, when prices were a lot lower. >> we discussed that many times. four or five years, as i said the other day, just going to lunch nearby and having sticker shock from a number that i remember a number of years ago. that does stick with us. did you again, you just went through a very positive number of things, this obviously augers well for the incoming administration in terms of what they're inheriting. >> they're dealt a decent hand and the mandate is to keep inflation from going higher and that is interesting to see how that matches up with tariffs.

consumers don't care about the rate of inflation and they care about what their paying and paying more and that is how you explain it. >> david has been explaining about the $17 sandwiches and you just did interviews with restauranteurs. it is toxic for everyone. >> it is the number one concern for small business. you see it in small business sentiment report which, yes, prices still high. and if you're in the coffee business right now, inflation is not moderating, it is spiking. you've seen that in cocoa prices and beef prices again and for some of the prices, we talked to a meat shop owner in new jersey last week in small business and he was saying meat prices in-ha never been this high. but even though prices are moderating, it is still a big cost for business and consumers. >> other prices going higher this monthing is stocks, just a

couple of points away from a all-time high. on pace for best month since february and on pace for best year since 2021. our senior markets commentator mark santoli is here to break down what happens in december and january. >> markets in let's not overthink it mode. that applied to the final few weeks of the year once you've had a strong year. s&p 500 up 25% year-to-date and up 25% into the election and you added 4% to that and small caps have doubled that return. but it is a little bit of a shakeout that i think moderated sentiment. i don't make too much of the weekly association of individual investors, but there was more bears than bulls. it is not a scientistic poll but it does show you that there is sensitivity to the short-term moves. and sara talking about inflation coming down, and the economy performing better than a year

ago, and earnings are rising, the fed has pivoted toward looking for opportunities to cut rates further. but the entire year the market has been making its peace with fewer fed rate cuts than we thought we would be getting and that is good. and run of the reasons the market could be comfortable with that, if you think about what piece of economic data the fed is keying off of it, it is private sector payrolls. it is jobs. they want to see inflation be in place. but that is softest piece of the economic data coming out, our gdp looks great and capex looks fine and consumer spending is holding up okay. so if they're focused on the soft spot in the economy, it means they'll be reactive. >> it is not that soft. >> but we do have to keep in mind that going into november, private sector payrolls were wheezing a little bit and those trends were not great. and if we're talking about cutting government, what do we

think is going to be left. so i think all of those things fitting in place. it is a fascinating year in the sense that for the first half of the year, nvidia market cap gain was half of the s&p market cap gain. it was in mid-june when nvidia peaked. since then they have held the 2 trillion in market cap gain and now it is only 20% of the aggregate $10.7 trillion that the s&p has added this year. so that exact broadening trade has happened. if i'm looking for something to be concerned about, it is that we might get too comfortable going into next year and start to get frothily and by the way, most new highs in a year, 53, i think if we got one today, now if you look at other years where you had a lot of new record highs, it includes 2021, 2017, it includes 2014, and it includes 1961. the following years were all kind of choppy, treacherous,

they were bull markets but they definitely had a little bit less of an easy flavor to them. so we'll see if that holds up. >> mike, thank you. mike santola. >> retail is front and sent they are morning. let's get back to the mall and get more on the biggest day of the year for in-store shoppers an courtney reagan joins us at the garden state plaza in new jersey. courtney. >> reporter: hi, david. i'm sure you wish you were here. traffic has picked up here. it is pretty refreshing shopping day to see all of the shoppers hit the stores. but we're getting some fresh sales data from adobe shows that consumers have spent $6.1 billion online on thanksgiving day, up about 9% last year in line with what was expected. but when it comes to what customers are searching for online, captive said it is slightly down on thanksgiving day, down 8% compared to last year. the early promotional events

might have started to pull forward. some of the sales and the searches, but searches or holiday gifts and the word "deals" were up 71% and 78% respectively. so the national retail federation predicts that 72% of americans will shop today in store or online or maybe both. for stores it is expected to be the biggest day of the week and the year according to sensor-matic. and the next busiest day is super saturday, or last saturday right before christmas. that is the number two busiest shopping day of the year. adobe predicted 71% shoppers will shop online today. up 10% year-over-year so that would be the biggest expected growth rate of these big cyber five days this year. salesforce predicted that a imagine of the online is 40%

during that time frame so underway to be sure. and social channels are 19% like tiktok shop or check out via instagram, about 19% of their thanksgiving day sales came from these social commerce apps. that is just fascinating f. you're shocking for stocks today. burlington stores has best average performance of retail stocks during the thanksgiving week since 2019. up an average of 10.5%. and maybe your bargain shopping. sara. >> thank you, courtney. i do wish i could be at a mall today. i love black friday. thank you. and s&p hitting a new high as we speak. our next guest said to best on names like walmart and ulta and dick's sporting goods. we have our holiday shopping

expectations. so why do you think those will be the big winner this is holiday season? >> well, first, we think holiday shopping is going to be fine. it a good holiday, and consumer has a job and household balance sheets are in accident position and the consumer is excited that the election is behind us so that is going to help with consumer confidence. why do we think those are retailings that will win this during this holiday season, because they are gaining a disproportionate amount. >> what about dick's, they had a good quarter and the stock sold off and it is not performing as well. >> dick's didn't report on the right day. that was a day where there was noise about the tariffs and that overshadowed what was a very good result. and an indication that it is gaining market share. and managing the p&l very well.

that will propel it as we move into 2025. >> what about ulta as well. that is a more controversial name. >> it has. >> such a tail wind for a while. but lately it has been choppier. why do you like it. >> it is choppy. sephora has moved into one of the main department stores. we are in the belief that next year the drag from that will become less pronounced and that will allow ulta to flourish. it is an inexpensive stock that stands to reaccelerate in 2025. the pace of change is going to benefit those. >> did best buy concern you about broader trends. >> i think spending is very episodic. so the consumer was waiting in october until deals came out in november. and we saw evidence of that, that there were sales in november up 5%. the consumers getting smart and

sophisticated. shopping around the key events like black friday and then what is going to happen is there going to be a dropoff in the days following this weekend. and then the consumer is going to reengage closer to kplas. so it doesn't surprise me the case that best buy talks about and i think it is more and more the norm. >> walmart had incredible momentum. up 75% is the stock. $750 billion market cap. we had an analyst earlier say that they are the big beneficiary online as opposed to amazon. could that momentum continue in 2025. >> it can. retail at the point where the big are becoming bigger and it is a winner take most category. over the last year, 50% of all retail sales have been generated by three retailers, walmart, costco and amazon.

astonishingly. it shows you that as the retailers are making the experience of shopping with them better and easier, the consumers is regarding them with target share. >> and you likes target and that hasn't worked out well for you. it is $40 below your price target. >> target has had some volatility. we think this will mark the bottom and 2025 will be a better year for the market. as things start to recover, we think it set conservative expectations for holidays. >> well thank you for joining us. >> have a great holiday. >> michael lassar, it is great to see you. as we head to break, here is the road map for rest of the hour. the pulse of the consumers and the ceo of ll bean. >> if you're heading out to find the perfect christmas tree, you might be paying more. and al michaels will join us

talking about the state of media, live streaming sports, ahead of a big nfl game tomorrow. ghafr is the street is back rit teth.

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investigation into microsoft. megan has more on that news. >> we've been watching the shares since late wednesday just after markets closed when a source confirmed to cnbc that the fcc is launching a wide-ranging investigation into microsoft. it is looking at whether the company is violated anti-trust law in a range of areas, software licensed and cloud computing and a.i. products and whether they use marketing terms to keep customers locked in to its azure cloud service with bundling office and security programs which could prevent customers from moving data elsewhere. shares down less than half a% today. but as for the time line, they have been looking into microsoft informally more than a year and has sent a detailed request for information and that is why we're hearing more about it right now. but there are a lot of questions about how far this will go since it is coming just a couple of

months before ftc share, lena khan, is likely out of her job when trump enters the office, makes this a swan song of sorts as she caps off a focus on tech. we don't know who trump will lead the ftc and the investigation could not die with the next term. trump and j.d. vance could carry this one on. something to keep in mind as we wait to hear more about this case and more about trump's pick to lead the ftc. guys. >> yeah, megan, you've been covering the appointments, marley the economic realm closely. do we have any anticipation in terms of who will weigh in on the the addition, whether it is and we have a choice for attorney general. you could give us a sense as to when and who is most influential in those choices? >> yeah. we anticipate that more and more of these economic appointments, the ones we haven't heard yet are likely to come in next

couple of months. trump has been moving quickly and we expect the pace to want to continue, generating this news coverage and keep up momentum. it is been a pretty small cottier of advisers. susie wiles and some of his closest staffers but i do think we have to take note of all of the big tech influence that we've seen so far. we know, of course, the role that elon musk has been playing in so many of the appointments. he was the one that posted on social media shortly around the election that saying that lena khan was likely to be fired soon. so we don't expect her to be staying on. we know mark zuckerberg was there just having dinner and a number of the ceos have been reaching out and having conversations. so when they think about ftc and doj, this there are some big role that they are trying to engainy ate the president before he enters the white house. >> as we go to break, s&p

hitting all-time highs, 6025 is the 52nd all-time high. biggest gainers for the month, take a look at palantir and tesla and tapestry. still ahead, millions of americans will venture out to buy a christmas tree this weekend. but thegoers are facing some challenges to get them to the lots and it might be why you pay more this holiday season. we'll talk about it when we are back in two. hi, i'm damian clark. i'm here to help you understand how to get the most from medicare. if

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tis the season to pick out the perfect christmas tree. but tree farmers are feeling the pinch this year. contessa brewer joins us from upstate new york with the story. the prices are crazy. >> i mean, here is the one thing, sara, it depends on where you live. but americans will buy as many as 30 million live christmas tree this is year and this, the day after thanksgiving, is the biggest day of the year to buy them. i'm at adams fair acre farms in ulster county, new york, two hours north of new york city and

the prices are firm. they are the same as what they were last year despite the considerable pressure on the growers. the northeast drought grabbed a lot of headlines. no that is the seedlings that we lose in the drought, not the full mature trees. those made it to market. hurricane helene, it slammed north carolina hard and that is the second biggest state for christmas trees and that coveted frazier fur and there was repairs to the trees could make it morkt. they have, i'm told. the weather is not the biggest concern. they're worried about labor supply and wage inflation according to a survey by the national christmas tree association. that is part of the usda. trees are a labor intensive crop. they have to sheer them every year and so immigration is really important to getting enough workers out to cut down the trees an to take care of them. by far, the biggest worry for

the the growers is whether consumers will hold the wholesale prices steady in spite of paying prices for themself. the medium price for a christmas tree, $75. that matters if you want this one, $20. if you could pick it up, you could pay less. that could change next year. this one comes from nova scotia. if the trump tariffs on canadian imports hold, right now the canadian trees don't face any additional duties but this could be 25% higher next year unless the growers eat the cost. and if you think you could get a artificial trees but those come from china and those are facing higher tariffs as well and then the tariffs on decorations and the ornaments on the trees so next year could be a different

story. so live it up while you can. >> just spare the christmas trees and the maple syrup from the tariffs. that would be helpful. >> perfectly timed story, contessa. thank you. contessa brewer. let's get a quick check on crypto. up nearly 40% and on pace for best month since october of '21. it is outperforming all but three names within the s&p for the month of november. and check out the moves in related stocks like merrillathon digital or micro strategy, surging big since november 1st. best month since march of this year, marathon the best since december of last. >> after the break, legendary sportscaster al michaels on everything from streaming to black friday football. he joins us next. don't go anywhere. sic] [phone ringing] not all multimillionaires build their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa.

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welcome back. i'm leslie picker with your cnbc update. the international atomic energy said iran will guenin riching uranium at its facilities but the notice mentioned they would only have a lower purity. british lawmakers voted today to allow assisted died for terminally ill patients in england and wales. it has striped conditions including requires patients being able to live no more than six months. this is months of debate on the bill and it could change as it makes its way throug visited th

dame cathedral in paris today. a fire ripped through the historic cathedral five years ago and it will reopen december 8th. the repairs to the outside are still being completed. back to you, sara. >> leslie, thank you. retail and inflation and the health of consumer key focuses there morning, our next guest said despite inflation prices at his retail brand have remained stable thanks to suppliers. steven smith from l.l. bean joins us now. how do you keep prices under control in this kind of environment that we've been in, in the last few years? >> hi, sara. happy black friday. hope all it well there. >> same to you. >> yeah, the inflation and apparel and outer wear for us really hit in 21 and 22 and we were able to stabilize our prices in 2023. it is through long standing relationships with our suppliers and our merchants and designer, i work very hard to make sure

that we've got a great first price, the price that is on the tag. we're not highly promotional and we work hard to keep our prices down. and in fact, going into this holiday period, we reduced prices on some of our core flannel programs and our styles as well. >> and what have you seen from the consumer at this point? >> yeah, so, it feels like holiday today. it finally got cold. we had a lot of snow across the mid-atlantic and new england. looking out the window, you see holiday trees for sale. i was up at our flagship campus and our norther lights is up and rubbing so it is festive. it is a slow fall because it is warm and been an election distraction but we've seen that picked up on wednesday of this week and this is shortest run between thanksgiving and christmas and this is our time to shine. >> and what does a retail do when you have five whole days taken out of that seasonal

calendar. how much pressure is there to deliver every day between now and christmas? >> it is great. we're relying on our people. we staff up. we have great hiring and great folks have come in and they're ready to serve our customers and that is in our warehouse, our fulfillment center across our stores and people are ready. we know that it happens this year. i think last time this happened was 2018. so we know how to do this and we get everybody motivated to serve our customers. it is fun. >> how have you managed to stay a family owns company for so long and such a competitive environment and such a changing cyclical and consumer habit landscape? >> yeah, we're an authentic brand. we've been around since 1912. we've had family ownership and real stability. we have incredible iconic prords. this year is exciting. it is our 1 had beenth anniversary of the barn coat and we are creating that canvas barn

coat. it is the 18th anniversary of the boat and tote sales, they have been up 50%. so we have these iconic products and designers find new customers and we look back at our arcives and make sure things are ready for the consumer today. >> well happy 100 years to that coat then. thanks for joining us on this black friday. steven smith, l.l. bean ceo. >> thank you so much. coming up after the break, al michaels on everything from streaming to black friday football. when we're back in three. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ (vo) whether your phone's broken or old, we've got you. with verizon, trade in any phone, any condition. and for a limited time, get iphone 16 pro

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amazon prime kicking off the second ever black friday game today. the kansas city chiefs taking on the las vegas raiders, thursday night record games seeing 40% growth over the last years. and joining us is al michaels who will be covering the game today. al, welcome. great to have you, happy black friday. >> and to you, too. i'm looking at the market. what a way to end the month and the year, everything, it is fantastic. >> on behalf of everybody, al, thank you for bringing black friday football to the world. because thanksgiving day is not enough. i wonder what you make of these like seamless distribution expansion by the league, whether that is international or additional days, you name it. >> it started out streaming, it was gradually and then it became suddenly. and we will do at amazon a wild card game this year on christmas

day, netflix will have a doubleheader. so streaming is the future and it is coming faster than i thought a lot of people figured a couple of years ago. but here we are. and amazon really wanted this game. when they got the package, because you've got everybody getting over their trippo fan hangover and you could shop online and you have football and everybody is home and this is a good one today. you have patrick mahomes and travis kelce and his girlfriend is going to be here. so there is a lot of good stuff going on. >> that is all that matters. >> that is all -- sara, what happens to your bengal this is year. what happened? >> i don't know. you tell me. i had such high hopes for them. >> that baltimore game did them in, that is for sure. >> al, as an announcer, if i blindfolded you, would you know if you were on a streaming platform or not? are there more toys that you have at your disposal now than you did before?

>> not necessarily. i think it is pretty similar in that regard. but people tell me that the picture looks fantastic. well two years ago there was a little bit of buffering and people complaining about a few things that i hear no complains about now. everybody said it looks great and the picture looks fantastic. so they've gotten everything together. the people at amazon, some of the smartest people i've ever been around work for amazon. and are part of our game telecast every week. and the trucks are unbelievable. then 18 million toys. but the key is, not to use every toy. but to do it as efficiently and as productively as possible. and they get it. everybody gets how you want to do this game and i'm so proud of the way it is turned out. because after 20 years on monday night and 16 years on sunday night i was with the best of the best and this is right up there

with him. >> al, we have sunday, sunday night and monday, and thursday night and friday afternoon, the day after thanksgiving. are we at peak here? could they find any other days during the week to air football games? >> david, of course they can. tuesday morning football is around the corner. >> not at 10:00 a.m., please. >> people love this, this is incredible. and you know, what is it 93 or 94 of the top 100 shows on television were the national football league. wow! >> yeah. no, it is given enormous power to the league as you well know and we've discussed offline the fact that basically is represents broadcast and linear television and in so many ways given the power that the nfl has now. >> it is incredible. the nfl is king. but amazon is going to get into the nba as well. and involved in soccer and in

canada and canadian distribution of the national hockey league. i don't know where the limit it. it is limitless at this point. but you have companies like amazon and netflix investing monies in sports programming and i see it going on forever. and i know because i watch you around the clock and you're talking about the valuations of the teams which is off the charts. you buy into a team and it is like -- it is a spigot and it doesn't stop pouring out cash. >> yeah, i don't want to talk about mother on father's day. but you did mention netflix and we have talked about the tyson fight and the buffering issues but the overall numbers. i wonder if you think that was another moment in the evolution of live sports on streaming? >> it might be. i heard everything, carl, that you heard. and they'll fix that. i mean we had our problems at prime the first year, too. and we got it under control. so i do know that everybody was

complaining about the quality of the picture and the buffering, et cetera, et cetera. but i think they'll get it right and by christmas day. at least the national football league will make sure they get it right. >> and carl used the word seamless. how are consumers digesting and finding all of the options now, which games to go to on which nights. is that just that they find it. >> they do. and sara, i look at like a saturday morning newspaper and they list the common themes and i'm going where do you find them and then i talk to my kids and my grandkids and they know where to find them. maybe i don't know, but they sure do. and obviously in today's world you could figure out where to go to get what you need to get to. but it is not the way it was, and it is so funny because i keep using that phrase, don't touch that dial. and there is no such thing as the dial any more, by the way.

as far as i know. so, you know, don't log off or whatever you're supposed to say in these days. but look, everybody seems to know where to find stuff. and they're finding it. clearly, the ratings prove it. >> and, al, are you going to license your voice the same way you did a.i. for the olympics because i'm thinking about the same kind of strategy but i want to follow your lead here. >> well i thought maybe a one and done, but i'm not sure about that. i'm not so sure. i think everybody is getting into it right now. it is crazy. that was nuts. to hear myself and i did nothing. i did zero at the olympics and i'm earing myself back as if it was me. it is other worldly. >> speaking of hearing yourself back. we do have a clip when you joined us in september. it was not about football but the markets and one ticker in particular. take a listen. >> take a look at e-bay float

shrink. they are buying back every stock in sight. they've shrunk the float from 1.2 billion shares down to 2,500 million. they continue to buy. i love this name for the long-term. >> josh, not only am going to buy it, i'm quick on the trigger. i already bought a thousand shares. >> that is a good trade. >> i love josh. i love judge wapner and i come on that show a lot. and all i know, i bought a day trading stock in 2009 and said what are you doing and i said i have it for 15 years and i love josh but i could give him some advice from time to time too. >> that said, we know you follow the marks closely. you feel pretty good about where we are and going into next year? >> i want to say yes. but i mean, i never would have thought we would have had the year that we had this year. but here we go. why not. i mean, everything seems to be

heading in that direction. every once in a while, you get that, as we did a couple of weeks ago, like 800,000 point drop, that is going to happen. nothing goes straight up. i mean, it has to waiver a little bit. but on balance, yes. but take that advice with a grain of salt. and by the way, as you guys all know, even betting football, if i had to bet football, as much as i know, i tell you what, in a year or so i would be live under a freeway overpass. nobody knows. >> how do you think the ease that we would bet on a football game. has changed the viewer experience. do you think it is for the better. >> i'm not sure it is-f it is for the better. if you could afford to win, you cannot win in gambling. it is impossible. you cannot win.

it is a rigged game. once in a while you'll hit a jackpot or whatever, but over the long run, i'm sorry, you can't. so if you want to have some fun and you can afford it. great. if you can't, it is not very good at all. >> so stock market over sports betting. that is your call? >> sara, both. >> i wonder how the popularity and increase of sports betting has changed at all, what you do. if at all. >> not really. because once in a while, before betting was allowed and the leagues got into bed with these entities, i was the one who was the rascal. i would kind of sneak in with the over or the under or the line doing off on the side. now everybody is out there saying the same thing. so, no, it really does it -- and i'm still aware of the over and under and you can't do the game and think about all of that on

every single play. once in a while you talk about the fantasy, you have this guy in a fantasy league and he came out of nowhere, you have a lot of points. but for the most part, i do the game. i do the game and kirk herbstreit does the game and we have to go about it in that manner. >> of all of the franchise narratives the year, the lions, the vikings, i guess the chiefs, the eagles, has one captured your imagination this season. >> i think the lions, right off the bat, they were on the cover of the sports illustrated so it is funny every expected the lions to be really good. very often it doesn't turn out that way. but they are. and speaking of the lions, just to do a promotional thing here for next week, our game next thursday night is green bay at detroit. which might be the highest rated amazon game in the three years. we're hoping so.

so they're great to watch, too. obviously, not only are they winning, they're blowing people out. kansas, everybody is saying what is wrong with these guys. they're winning at the end of the game like i think five or six times this year. nothing is wrong with them. they're 10-1 and number one seed in the afc. but they're not stopping on people. so people think there is a problem there. >> that is what is great about the league. they found a way to surprise us. season after season. we can't wait for this afternoon, al. it is a treat for us. thanks for the time. >> be good, guys. love the show. >> don't miss the ceo of pandora next hour on the exchange. the jewelry company reporting five quarters in a row of double-digit death and why he's not worried about tariffs. taking a look at the broader markets. we're near the highs of the session. remember, the market closes early today. the s&p up half a percent and we're adding to gains, up more

than 5%. best month now since february on this final trading day of the week and the month. more squawk on the street ahead.

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take a look at new highs today. we have definitely have all-time highs on the overall index and still sit there at spx 6028. every sector green except for utilities and staples. the vix below 14. que ita remarkable day and weekend and month for the markets as we put together our best s&p month before november. we'll take a break and be back in a minute. bring us closer together. the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is back with offers on vehicles like the 2025 glc suv. now through january 2nd.

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one more thing before we end the hour, it is kids day at the stock exchange and here with us, everyone wave, very special guests, my own and a lot of the folks who work here children is here. always a treat, we get a good sense of what kids want for the holiday season. what toys are hot. starting with you, what do you want for the holiday? >> $100. >> what do you want for the holiday? >> a football book. >> what do you want? >> clothes. >> what about you, i love your hair. >> everything in the world. >> everything in the world.

these are great kids and the grinch is here. what about you? >> a baseball bat. >> earrings. >> anybody else? what are the hot toys? feels like you're on trend. >> will be clothes and i want a portable charger. >> where do you shop these days? >> the garage. for sure. >> american eagle. >> american eagle still very popular. let's get one over here. what about you? >> iphone 15. >> aren't you young for an iphone? too young. there is a little sampling, the new york stock exchange does a great job, they have the apps, tinsel in the hair, a lot of candy.

it is officially the start of the holiday season, this lovely tradition, my favorite day of the year. remember when your kids were this young? >> i do and i miss it a lot. enjoy your two boys. >> did not get them to do their hair before. here is sammy and harry. >> thank you and happy weekend everyone. let's get over to the exchange. >> awesome stuff, thank you very much and happy black friday, welcome to the spiritual early edition of "the exchange", on the show, stocks are hitting another record high today and one strategist says there is no reason to believe the rally will slow down. plus, bitcoin is rebounding, prices taking a breather after getting within striking distance of $100,000 this week