it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." futures are lower to start december following the best month of the year for markets. we are looking at a $10 billion black friday now in the books. next up, cyber monday. president-elect donald trump threatens 100% tariffs on bric countries. and box office record with

"moana 2." it is monday, december 2nd, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good monday morning. thank you for being with us. i'm frank holland. hope you had a great holiday weekend. let's kickoff december with the check of the dow and s&p. both coming off the best week of the year. down fractionally. all three indices lower. this morning, we are watching the dollar and other currencies as president-elect trump threatens tariffs on bric nations. moves of the dollar up .50%. we are seeing the dollar move .13% against the peso. it is up .50% against the chinese yuan. the dollar is falling a bit against the brazilian real. we will talk more about currency coming up in the show.

we will talk about bitcoin. digital currency. still below $100,000 mark after the best month since february. up more than 37% since the election. pulling back down a bit. down 1.5%. trading at $95,410 right now. that's the money set up. let's see how europe is getting under way with silvia amaro in london. >> good morning, frank. i hope the whole team had a good thanksgiving holiday. in terms of how we are moving so far in today's session, i have to highlight the performance over in france. looking at the cac 40, the market is down .8% as we are tracking political instability. chances are we could actually see the government collapsing in the coming days. a lot of question marks about france's 2025 budget. we shall find out what lawmakers will do there. i want to take you to french lenders.

this is part of the french market with considerable pressure today. indeed, france is hitting the banking sector. the leader of the far right national party said it would take a miracle to stop the backing of the no confidence vote of michel barnier. in terms of stocks, credit agricole is down 1.3%. that's on the political front. in terms of corporate stories this morning, stellantis is our worst performing stock in europe today. shares sharply lower after the automaker announced ceo carlos tavares resigned with immediate effect citing diverging views with the board. that put the stock down more than 8%. frank. >> silvia, thank you very much. silvia amaro in the london newsroom.

we have breaking news from the white house. megan cassella is joining us with more. >> reporter: good morning, frank. the commerce department is moving to limit sales of chips and chip making equipment and related software to china. the goal is to slow or stop china's development of advanced weapons and systems used for the military. this move has long been expected. it has been under discussion for months with american allies and businesses with rules hurt business and competitiveness. the final package today appears to be pared back with the negotiations and allies with the power to impose restrictions. that is a major win for countries like japan, south korea and netherlands and for the companies there which is tokyo electric in japan and asml holdings in the netherlands. there is likely to be an impact on u.s. companies whose sales to

china will be further limited. that includes micron and manufacturers like applied materials. i will note both could see less of an impact than presently expected given today's rules appear milder than previous draft version was have looked. u.s. officials also do say there is still room for the u.s. and china to keep working together. national security adviser jake sullivan told reporters that basic commercial commerce would not be disrupted. this is one area where they are looking to crackdown on china before officials leave office in january. frank. >> megan, i want to get back to the invest or impact. it is down .13%. when we look at the near term, what impact should investors expect? >> reporter: it is going to be interesting to watch the shares today because i would expect some of the american companies

could fall on this while some of the companies abroad could rise. although there is so much reporting and so much expectation of what exactly was going to come and this appears to be a milder version of what we had expected. it is possible the u.s. chip makers see that priced in and could get a bump in the near term. the question is how much of an impact does this have on a?alli. because the new administration is coming in. they are playing the wait and see game. that means the u.s. is acting alone. at some point, that could be worse for the u.s. companies while competitors abroad aren't as limited. frank, something to watch there. >> you mentioned allied companies. speaking to the carveouts.

megan cassella, thank you very much. time for a check on the other top stories, including president-elect trump threatening tariffs. silvana henao is here with those. silvana, good morning. >> frank, good monday morning. that is right. donald trump said he would impose a 100% tariff on imports from brazil, china, india, russia and south africa. these are known as the bri c. in post on truth social, trump said, we require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new bri brics currency. the numbers are in on black friday. adobe analytics show shoppers spent $10.8 billion on black friday. that is up 10% from a year ago

and more than double from what they spent in 2017. worldwide, adobe says 29% of all black friday were made on mobile device. all this as brick and mortar sales edged up 6%. and "moana 2" and "gladiator" pushing the five-day thanksgiving holiday to the biggest box office haul in movie history. "moana 2" taking the top spot in $221 million in the ticket sales. "wicked" adding another 117.$11 million and then gladiator" taking on $44 million.

>> "gladiator 2" looks good. silvana, see you later on. the dow coming off record closes on friday and the small caps with the best month of the year in november rallying almost 10%. now we are entering the strongest month of the year according to net davis research. the s&p 500 enters december up 20%. the median gain is more than 2%. joining us now to look at the month ahead and year ahead with the 2025 outlook is jeff kleintop at schwab. hope you had a good holiday. >> good to be on. hope you did as well. >> let's start with december. this is the first trading day of december. we hit the historic 2% rise in december. do you see history repeating itself? >> this could be a strong december. watch out. let's look back and what happened last time trump won in 2016.

we saw mall small value stocks it. followed by lagging stocks with the negatively impacted by trump policies. what happened in 2017 was the opt opposite. u.s. small caps were the worst performer. be careful about the trump trades. they may play out in december, but could change next month. >> according to your recent note, reddit, you say three hurdles next year. one is trade policy, one fiscal policy and one is slower than average growth. how does that shape the markets? give us your top pick internationally? >> the economic growth in the world is probably going to be the same as 2024. what we are seeing is the u.s. and china expected to slow next year. nearly everywhere else's, , gro

is expected to improve. we have to see market leadership broaden from the u.s. a.i. driven stocks to other sectors. it is interesting that financials have been the best performing sector in europe in the second half of the year. taking the lead away from tech. that could be a sign of shifting leadership in 2025. >> did you give us your top pick internationally? is there one market in mind that you think is going to be the best? >> believe it or not, i'm most excited about europe. they are coming off rolling recessions, germany and france and other countries have been through recessions in the last six quarters. the valuations are coming off below average levels. there is opportunity in terms of moving up and the ratio moving up as well. >> i want to get back to your note. back to the u.s. let's focus on the u.s. this is from your note.

it's a chart showing tariffs back in 1930 before the great depression, tariffs at the trump administration and the proposed tariffs for this administration. you put this in your note. great ession 2.0. the proposed tariffs in your mind how do they impact the market? they are proposals. some people think they are part of the negotiating tactic. i want to make that clear. if you see anything close to the proposed tariffs, how will it impact markets? >> if we saw anything close to those tariffs could be devastating and another deep recession for the world. that seems very unlikely to me. i think trump is using tariffs as a state policy rather than economic policy. if you look at the trade war analysis, they estimated the drag of less than 0.1% on the globe gdp in 2025 from the global trade par in tariffs.

there is a difference with proposed tariffs and what we will see. >> jeff, i want to get to one other point in your note. you have a cautionary data point. you are focusing on brazil. inflation is on the rise in brazil. their central bank is hiking rates while we are looking for cuts in the u.s. why should investors at least pay attention to what is going in brazil? >> that's a great point. this is the risk to the outlook. brazil is the first to start cutting rates back when inflation just started to come back down again. what i've noticed around the world is most countries have started to see inflation creep back up. the leading indicators are pointing higher in countries like the u.s. there is a risk of renewed inflation pressure and cult cutting short central bank cuts. sort of the leading indicator. one of the things i'm watching is how much the market is focusing on continued rate cuts

in 2025. >> jeffery kleintop, thank you. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," including two names our next guest says is a buy heading into the final trading month of the year. first, corporate ceos are looking for face time with donald trump. we have more details on the the delicate lationship. another busy week for retail results. stacey widlitz is here with her top picks. a very busy hour coming up on "worldwide exchange." you should stay with us.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it is 50 days until donald trump takes office and world leaders are ceos are traveling to mar-a-lago for face time. during the first term in office, lockheed martin and goodyear found themselves on the back side of trump. just the last week, justin trudeau and mark zuckerberg met with trump. trudeau on the heels of the tariffs threat for canada. joining me now with the ceo perspective on the delicate dance is fred haskin. fred, good morning. hope you had a great holiday. >> good morning, frank.

>> let's talk about this. how delicate is this dance when we talk trump 2.0? what can we learn from last time around to build a positive relationship with the president-elect? >> frank, it's a very delicate dance. the president has a unique personal dynamic. he is a ceo himself. the one aspect of the president is he has a bias for getting things done. that is what he said on the campaign trail that politicians talk a lot, but don't do much. he does have respect for ceos because ceos have focus on strategy, but much more importantly, the hard part is getting strategy to work and getting things done. as long as you have something to offer that is in tune with the president's stated objectives and you are willing to spend the time to work at it, it's not

right away, you've got to work at it, and get n front of the president and build a rapport and then you can make the ask. you have to prepare to give something at the front. it really does work. >> okay. >> it worked in the case of lockheed martin very well. >> that is one example that a ceo could change the dynamic of the relationship with the president-elect. over the last couple days, we have seen a lot of reports where jamie dimon and the president-elect are having back channel discussions. it seems the president-elect and jamie dimon, ceo of jpmorgan, have a dynamic. with jamie dimon or other big name ceos, what are they offering? what does mr. trump want to get from them? >> it is typically about his main agenda to put america first

and do more innovation and improve the competitive situation for america because we have a trade imbalance. he wants to use selective tariffs to help with the imbalance. if somebody has some ideas, whether it is reducing costs or reducing or reducing unemployment or ing employment in the u.s., then absolutely i think the president is open for business and is open to successful ceo, but who has to show up when the topic is hot. it cannot be any other time. it has to be when the ceo is thinking about certain things. as in the case of apple, it was tariffs at the time and tim cook was able to get very good treatment for apple. >> fred, you lead me to my next question. tim cook and peter thiel there

with donald trump. a lot of people look at him as a ceo/diplomat. what is he doing right that other ceos can learn from? >> i think the most important thing is to have a cool and calm demeanor and to find a way to build rapport. the president is very good at reading people and if he feels he can let the person in and give him more trust, it actually makes a big difference. then you can build the resonance that makes a big difference. in this case, tim cook managed to build the resonance and was able to get a favorable carveout of the tariffs that the president was imposing in had china. similar at lockheed martin. i know her very well because i'm on the selection committee that made her the ceo of the year in 2018. she did a great job. the president was very vocal right after his election in 2016

saying the f-35 fighter jet was very expensive and the prices had to come down. she met the president many, many times and built a tremendous rapport with him. at the end, he was able to make an announcement with bringing the price of the new f-35 jets down while also encouraging the company to increase the number of jobs in the supply chain, all high quality jobs in america. give the president a chance to make a proper announcement and you will get a lot of mileage. >> fred hassan, thank you. >> thank you, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," much more on president-elect trump tapping key family members for posts in the administration. we're right back after this break. stay with us.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for a check of the headlines with frances rivera in new york. frances, good morning. >> good morning, frank. let's begin with the shock announcement from the white house. president biden pardoning his son hunter. the president assured he would not offer clemency. now avoids what could have been many years in prison. defending his decision in a statement, president biden said

quote i believe in the justice system, but as i wrestled with this, i believe raw politics infected this process and led to the miscarriage of justice. i hope america would understand a father and president would come to the decision. president biden said the justice system must be fixed and due process restored for all americans which is what president trump will do as he returns to the white house. hunter biden faces up to 17 years in prison. he said i will never take the clemency i have been given today for granted and rebuilt the life to help those who are still sick and suffering from addiction. president-elect trump has made another controversial pick for a role. trump loyalist kash patel for fbi director. democrats are also deriding what they call his lack of experience and promise an uphill

confirmation hearing. the president-elect chose tiffany trump's father-in-law as the middle east advisor and jared kushner's father as the ambassador to france. back to you. >> frances, thank you very much. coming up on "worldwide exchange," why millions of americans may be waiting until today to hit that buy now button after a record-breaking black friday. we'll be back with the details. stay with us.

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the whole arc of openai is troubling. it has gone from an open source foundation of one, two, three, to suddenly a $19 billion for profit corporation. i don't know how you go from here to there. that seems like -- i don't know. is this legal? >> that was tesla ceo elon musk with andrew ross sorkin talking about openai over how it does business. 365 days later that is taking a new twist. i'm frank holland. we will talk about that coming up. we check the half hour with the dow and s&p both come ing down

fractionally. not big moves to the down side, but right now, the dow would open up about 11 points lower. i want to look at the s&p best performers in november. trump trades at the top of the list. palantir and axon. tesla up 1.75%. texas pacific land corp and tapestry. the five biggest performers for the month in the s&p. we will look at the jobs data on friday. take a look at yields. benchmark at 4.21. we did see yields spike a bit during november. right now, the two-year at 4.19. we have to look at bitcoin.

up 37% since the election. take a look right now. you see it is falling a bit. hitting the low of the morning. it trades around the clock down almost 2%. trading at $95,150. that is the set up. we go to the unofficial holiday. cyber monday. don't worry if you didn't snag anything on black friday. there is me to take advantage of the biggest retail shopping day of the year. courtney reagan is joining us from the distribution center where they are ready to ship off. courtney, good to see you. >> reporter: good morning, frank. it is an official holiday for me. home depot may not be a retailer you think of, but it is the country's fifth largest retailer online believe it or not. there are 2 million items

available on the web site. this distribution center is huge. it also expect in its network to ship 100,000 or hundreds of thousands of units here per day. 90% of the united states is within same day of the fulfillment center. half of the ordinance ers are fy stores. this is a direct fulfillment center. this is part of the network of 500 throughout the country. this serves new york, new jersey, pennsylvania and maryland and covers more than 900,000 square feet. cyber monday, of course, marks the end of retail's big five. big five shopping days that starts thanksgiving and ends today. expectations are for a record of 40% of americans say they will shop. $13 billion to be spent. that is up 6% from last year's

black friday. will consumers have any power or any spending power left after this big weekend? mastercard spending pulse says total sales grew 3.4%. overall traffic fell more than 3%. online sales did hit a new report on black friday up 10.2% to $10.8 billion. now here at the home depot today, best sellers could include power tools or bathroom faucets or furniture. you never know if you are in the hunt you could found big deals on home depot. maybe your dad. we always had tools for my dad on days like this. back to you. >> home depot is not just tools and hammers, but they have plants and furniture. i'm pretty much -- >> reporter: rugs. >> washers and dryers.

courtney, you mentioned different data on how well cyber monday is expected to be with the expectations there. how do amazon prime days in october and walmart deals in october impact sigh cyber monday. >> reporter: it is hard to figure it out. year after year, we keep hitting records for cyber monday. according to individual retail ers, like amazon which says it is a new record for them. adobe and salesforce tell us how big these days end up being. the october amazon prime days and other retailers glom on and do their own early black friday days pull some sales forward for the season, but it doesn't necessarily take away the significant amount from a day like cyber monday. it is still marked on consumers'

calendar. it is a really important day for folks to shop. >> the last of the big five days. courtney reagan, great to see you. thank you very much. let's talk more about the holiday shopping is stacey widlitz. stacey, good morning. hope you had a good holiday. >> good morning. i hope you did as well. happy cyber monday. it is all happening today. >> it is an official holiday for courtney and you as well. >> it absolutely is. >> it absolutely is. let's talk about black friday. sales almost $11 billion. what does that sneen mean with consumers spending so much on black friday? >> here is the really interesting part. you are seeing deals out there. 40% off victoria's secret. that drove consumers in.

on a year over year businesses on the companies we cover, 90% of the promotions were flat to down. so, in terms of profitability, retailers and brands very much operating margins look in tact this season. of course, there are a couple of exceptions that companies started earlier. the overwhelming majority were flattish. you look at ambercrombie and the numbers were down. that is good news here. the malls were busy. traffic was down a little bit. you know, the winners we heard is dick's and tjx and abercrombie and tapestry. those were the winners. players like kohl's were quiet. >> report from adobe analytics. i want to see how this impacting

cyber money. this is their data. retail chat bots drove traffic to retail sites an increase of 1,800%. is a.i. going to be a big factor on cyber monday as more people shop online? >> it's a huge factor, frank. now we're seeing retailers promoting less often and it becomes concentrated spurts like courtney was talking about with prime day in october and this weekend and things go full price again. the consumer knows that. they have gotten smart. they use the a.i. tools to find the deals and unearth them and go after where they get the biggest bang for the buck particularly in an environment where inflation and food inflation is still real and still hurting the con consumer. of course, amazon being the biggest winner today, likely, last quarter, in q3, amazon won half of all online growth.

so that's huge and we expect them to be another huge winner today. >> you told us who are the winners and quiet for black friday. as we look at cyber monday, does that change or the companies change in any meaningful way? >> i don't think it changes. i think consumers have been tracking the deals and generally today, you will see the best deals of the weekend. it's the deals get better and better. today will be the best discounts. i think, again, the consumer has really voted which brands that have won this season and the ones they just mentioned. they also voted in terms of a lot of full price selling out there. it is not just about discounts. i would say it is about collaborations. discounts. target launched the eras book.

some came out with the emily in paris collaboration. that gets the consumer excited and out in stores paying full price. >> discounts get me excited. i'm going online. i'm looking. on today's official holiday for stacey. stacey widlitz, thank you very much. >> good to see you, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," more on the post-electric run for post- post-election run on bitcoin. stay with us. we're back after this break.

it is time for the global briefing. china's yuan after donald trump threatens brics countries. meanwhile, the china factory expanding at fastest pace in november after the solid rise in production suggesting the massive stimulus measures are trickling through the economy. shares of stellantis are falling in the european trade. the automaker says carlos tavares has resigned. he has led the company since the crisis with peugot in 2021. in september, stellantis launched a successor for tavares. a take look at the auto

picture. stellantis shares down 7%. coming up on "worldwide exchange," one word that every investor needs to know. musk versus altman and openai. the drama with the world's richest and the poster child of artificial intelligence. we'll be right back after this break. get four on us. only on verizon.

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welcome back to "worldwide

exchange." market flash for you on tesla. shares up 1.75%. the ev maker rolling out a new version of the driving software over the weekend. touting this update that upgrades every part of the tesla car. shares up 1.75%. over the last week, shares up 3.5%. tesla ceo elon musk focusing attention on openai. steve kovach is joining us with more. hope you had a good holiday. >> hope you did as well, frank. ramping up the openai as he is starting up x-a.i. let's go back to black friday while you were out shopping. musk was in court asking for a preliminary injunction that would block openai from turning to a for-profit company as many

expect it to do soon. openai is blocking investors from also investing in rival a.i. companies, which includes musk's x-a.i. this includes the lawsuit that musk has with ceo sam altman. the lawsuit alleges that openai has abandoned the charter to be a non-profit charity and openai and microsoft have an unfair advantage due to the partnership. microsoft reportedly owns a 49% stake in openai giving it access to the technology earlier than other people. openai responded to us in a statement saying this latest accusation recycles the same baseless complaints and refers back to emails openai released in the spring. that shows musk was looking to make openai a for-profit company when he was under control as ceo

and end up leaving. musk is planning to launch a consumer version of openai. you have to sign up right now. openai is a small business. the wall street journal saying most of the revenue comes from musk's other companies like x and spacex. the financial times reported a 25% stake in x a.i. after the valuation of x plummeted since musk took over. the latest valuation out there is $50 billion for x a.i. that is still just one-third of what openai is ivately valued. frank. >> that is a huge number. $50 billion is nothing sneeze at. i want to go back to news we had last week where openai employees were allowed to sell shares to soft bank. does this lawsuit impact the

plan to sell shares or impact anything openai is planning to do? >> that wasn't mentioned. that is a way for current employees who want to cash out on the shares that they already vested. that softbank coming in and scooping up shares. with we saw that earlier this year with the tender offer that allowed employees to cash out. that's why you saw so many people he exiting openai. they made a lot of cash. >> steve kovach, thank you very much. good to see you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," take a look at this mystery chart. it is up 70% this year. why my next guest says it could be a big deal this holiday season. we'll be right back to reveal your mystery chart. stay with us. the places we cheer.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." here's what to watch in the week ahead. earnings from salesforce and others. jobs data head of the jobs report. the fed releasing the beige book on wednesday. turning back to the markets. investors are preparing to kickoff the final trading day of the year on the back of november's strong performance.

for more on the trading day head, let's bring in lindsey bell at 248 ventures. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> i hope you had a great holiday. why don't we start with how you see this day or month shaping up. what is your word of the day? >> my word of the day is resilient. what we will see this week and into the end of the year is the resilient consumer and resilient economy and resilient marketplace. i'm optimistic going into the end of the year, frank. >> optimistic. we're in the holiday shopping season. we had black friday and today is cyber monday. i want your view of the retail sector. gap just got an upgrade from jpmorgan. those shares are up 4% in the pre-market. burlington got an upgrade from goldman. what is your is overall view of retail? >> i think retail has opportunity in the space right now. it is the forgotten area because

consumers and the way they have spend in the last couple years. they are coming back to the discretionary because prices have come down significantly over the past year. i think there is opportunity in the space. you have to have the right merchandise at the right price or offer the right experience for the consumer because they are value oriented and price sensitive. they are wading back into the space. >> what is your pick and why? >> well, i'm looking at walmart, frank, because i think sure the story is out they are taking share from target with 75% of the share gains coming from those making more than 100,000. what people are for getting is they are taking share from amazon. they are revamping the business model. profitability increased last quarter and that is due to ecommerce and due to advertising

and online subscriptions. i think they are really changing up this business model and it's been just a really great stock so far. it's trading at 35 times which is the highest it's ever traded at, but it is converging with the multiple of amazon. >> the chart with shares up 75% year to date. it has been a winner so far this year. i want to broaden it out. over the weekend, the president-elect trump announced tariffs for bric nations. how much of that threat and tension with the other large nations when it comes to the markets? >> you have to stay on top of the tariff threats are and when you look back to trump's first term as a president, and the tariffs he did increase and that biden continued with, there wasn't a significant lasting inflationary impact because the way tariffs work, you put them on and have impact near term and

that subsides over time. we saw that in 2018 and 2019 when real nflation didn't come until 2021 and 2022 with the pandemic. i think it is something we need to keep our eye on, but i think from the consumer perspective, it is not something you need to worry about this holiday shopping season. >> last question. from the consumeperspective, we don't have to worry. any concerns with the earnings season and the impact on rates with the quote/unquote tariffs? >> the strength in the dollar does impact earnings. about 50% of the s&p 500 gets revenue from overseas. i think there will be impact there. the ngth of the dollar can continue in the year ahead. you have to think about the currency and the strength of the

economies around the world. a strong dollar does depict a strong economy here in the u.s. >> lindsey bell, great to see you. pick today was walmart. thank you. as we close in on the 6:00 a.m. hour, a check of stories we're watching. the commerce ing the limiting sales and software to china to reduce weapons and a.i. systems. president-elect trump would impose a 100% tariff on imports from brazil, russia and india as they look to rival the u.s. dollar. trump calling on the bloc known as the brics not to replace the dollar. and "moana 2" came in with $221 million in ticket sales. that is the biggest thanksgiving day weekend opening ever. and blackrock is buying hps.

that deal could come as early as this week. that would value hps at $12 billion. and bitcoin etf is tching a record in november. $6.5 billion flowed into the funds boosted by trump's election. that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. shares of stellantis are falling. looking at those cars, can i see why. the company said ceo carlos tavares has resigned and the search for his replacement is under way. a surprise reversal. not that big a surprise from president biden announcement saying he is pardoning his son hunter. details ahead. a blockbuster weekend at the box office. "moana 2" atters records.

it's monday, december 2nd, 2024. for a while. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good monday morning, everybody. and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq narc et market site in times square. u.s. equity futures aren't budging much at this point. you got the dow futures down by over 8 points. and s&p 500 futures down by 8 points and the nasdaq off by 37. but that doesn't tell you what happened in the last month. the dow and the s&p 500 both closed november, trading at a record high. in fact, for the month of november, the dow was up 7.5%.