tv Squawk Box CNBC December 2, 2024 6:00am-9:00am EST
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2024. for a while. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good monday morning, everybody. and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq narc et market site in times square. u.s. equity futures aren't budging much at this point. you got the dow futures down by over 8 points. and s&p 500 futures down by 8 points and the nasdaq off by 37. but that doesn't tell you what happened in the last month. the dow and the s&p 500 both closed november, trading at a record high. in fact, for the month of november, the dow was up 7.5%.
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the nasdaq was up by 6.2%. the best month for stocks for the year. take a look at treasury yields this morning. you'll see that at least at this point it looks like the ten-year is yielding, drum roll, please, 4.21. the two-year at 4.19 and then you got bitcoin. at this point, it looks like bitcoin is 95,000, just above that. so it is down by about 2%. year to date, up by close to 125%. >> shares of automaker stellantis are sharply lower. the ceo carlos tavares resigned from the company amid a decline in profits and slumping sales in north america. company said a search for a successor by a special board committee is well under way and chairman john elkann will be the interim ceo, who will run the company until a replacement is found. carlos was supposed to stay until 2026. he oversaw the combination of fiat, chrysler and peugeot to
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create stellantis in 2021. the company generated record profits post pandemic for a little while, 19.7 billion in 2023. bonuses from that performance helped make tavares one of the highest paid executives in the industry, but profits have fallen this year, as much as 50%. they kept sales way too high for the cars they were selling. sales dropped 20% in -- or more in the u.s. phil lebeau will have more on this story later this hour. but it is another big piece right next to it in "the journal" about ev startups and evs in general, things getting worse for ev startups, even the good ones like rivian and lucid are down 50%. the shares this year and some of the others have already filed, like fisker and others. so -- >> we talked last week how the biden administration was trying to get some payments and some loans made to these companies
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out the door before the trump administration comes in because they're very likely not going to be looking at things the same way. >> a great piece, i don't know which media publication it was, but automakers are begging the trump administration to require a shift to evs. that's what they're going to need. the only way you can -- you're not going to get people to pay a lot more for evs based on where ice, internal combustion engine cars are. the only way you can do it is if the government requires you to do it. >> i can't imagine the government requiring that. >> not under trump. >> i have a hard time even thinking they'll have the same standards that are required for the fleets that they come through with some of these things too. you get automakers say, look, we have been set up, these rules have been in place and it varies from administration to administration, but if they don't have the federal subsidies, i can't imagine they're going to sell nearly the number of them. >> this guy at stellantis said that he admits he was very
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arrogant in terms of keeping prices high. we said weighs -- >> it was obvious to anybody watching. >> one of the highest paid big bonus. that may breed some arrogance. what was it? do we know how much it was? i didn't look. we can find out. i'm sure he doesn't have to -- i'm sure he'll be fine. >> yeah. i think so too. in the meantime, joe alluded to this, president biden issuing a full and unconditional pardon of his son hunter after repeatedly insisting that he would not do so. hunter biden was scheduled to be sentenced this month for his conviction on federal gun charges. and separately for his guilty plea on federal tax evasion charges. in a statement, the president said, i believe in the justice system, but as i have wrestled with this, i also believe raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice.
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and once i made the decision this weekend, there was no sense in delaying it further. i hope americans will understand why a father and a president would come to this decision. >> i understand. goes back to 2014, when he joined the board of burisma. he made $39.5 million, tavares did, back in 2023. $6 million salary and $28.3 million in long-term incentives. that's not as much as a media guy. >> we said for a high paying industry. >> back to the story on hunter biden's pardon, post on truth social, president trump called it such an abuse and miscarriage of justice and brought up the rioters from january 6th, 2021, which he has suggested could receive pardons when he takes office. i think if you look at the entire pardon process, it was something that was supposed to have clemency and grace, but it has been abused and abused and abused under just about every administration. look back, think of mark rich,
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with president clinton, seen as -- >> those people never said i'm never going to do it 100 times and had the press secretary yelling at people in the press room. "the new york times" has more than one edition, is that it? >> i don't know. "the wall street journal" does. two star and three star edition. >> i'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. every other paper got it in, the post, daily news. >> maybe we got an early edition of it. >> maybe. because it is nowhere in "the new york times." >> this news wasn't that though. i tried to find it in "the new york times". that would never happen with the "new york times" where they wouldn't -- i can't find it. "usa today" it is not on the cover, i don't think. it is the lead story in "the washington post." >> and in "the wall street journal." >> and "the wall street journal" and i don't know. >> it is just -- this is going to bring questions after questions after questions on what happened. >> i've seen the right and the left mad.
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on the left, all of the virtue signaling people that have been trashing trump just forever, they feel like the rug was pulled out for them. from them. so they can no longer have the high ground. they no longer have the -- joe walsh. i like one joe walsh. i like the guy -- i like the guitar player from the eagles and james gang. the other one, i don't know how he got famous, but i think it is the people who made their living just hating trump, but he was, like, this is really bad. you can't really -- our old friend john harwood, did you see? >> i think there was something he posted several years ago. >> he did. he did. he did. it was vintage harwood. but we don't want to go there. though we already did. new moves by the incoming trump administration over the weekend, the president-elect will name real estate developer charles kushner, father of trump's son-in-law, jared, as ambassador to france.
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that's a darn good gig. you need -- you should be wealthy to do that because the wine, you can't serve, like, $20 wine. >> no. and you have to pay for it yourself. this goes back to the pardon bit. >> especially with dojo. how is this related? >> because trump pardoned charles kushner. >> he didn't do much. >> are you kidding? did you hear what chris christie said about him? >> he did something -- he did something with his brother, hired a hit man? >> no, he hired a prostitute for his brother-in-law, tricked him into doing it, videotaped the whole thing, sent the videotape to his sister to try and convince her to get involved and speak out against him in some trial that was taking place. >> i remember. out in new jersey, this kushner name is everywhere. >> yes. >> for real estate. during the final month -- >> it was a republican chris christie who had prosecuted him for that, he spent some time in
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prison and was done and then the pardon came later. >> there is an -- this editorial is pretty good. i didn't realize it, trump apparently didn't want to fire comey initially, because he was so tall. and he thought he really made a -- he liked the cut of his gib, he was for an fbi agent. this is about the -- there is a lot going on. kash patel. a lot to talk about. kind of ruined it for the left, the whole hunter biden thing, right? >> yeah. >> they were in full -- >> i think this is -- >> they were in full hair on fire. pulled the rug out from under them. >> this is ere we say, this whole nation was supposed to be founded because we didn't want our own imperialistic. >> where is arthur brooks? see if anybody is happy. trump said he has chosen kash patel as the fbi director. he's called for radical changes at the bureau including reducing the footprint and limiting its
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authority. chris feret is in year seven and it is a ten-year term. he will resign or be fired. he's going to wait until that point. the u.s. commerce department is moving to limit sales of some chips. chip-making equipment and related software to china. it is an effort to try and curb china's development of advanced weapons and advanced a.i. systems from military use. the long awaited move has been under discussion for months, with u.s. allies and within the industry. chip companies have been warning the administration that overly restrictive rules would hurt business and competitiveness. the final package announced this morning is paired back from earlier drafts. that's probably as a result of those negotiations. allies that have the power to impose their own restrictions are carved out of the rules. that's a major win for countries like japan, south korea and the netherlands and companies including tokyo electron and
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asml holdings. there is an impact on u.s. companies whose sales to china will be limited. that includes the chipmaker micron and some chip component manufacturers like applied materials. though both could see less of an impact than under the previous draft versions of those rules, still you see micron and applied materials, those stocks are each down fractionally today. now to the box office. disney's "moana 2" brought in $221 million, smashing expectations of around $100 million. it is the highest thanksgiving weekend perform be as of any film ever. "wicked" continues to soar as well, bringing in more than $117 million over the holiday period. it is now the highest grossing broadway adaptation of all time. and then you got "gladiator 2" that brought in $44 million over the five-day period. overall, moviegoers spent an estimated $420 million at north
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american box offices making it the biggest thanksgiving weekend ever at the movies. >> did you see "wicked" yet? >> no. i did see "gladiator 2," part of it, i had to leave in the middle. >> i got a pass yesterday. other people went that i know. >> you got a pass and didn't have to go? >> if it is a 4:00 movie on a sunday, 3:00 movie, i'm not going to -- >> got to go to bed. >> close to bed time. >> no, nfl. i was up, actually watching the game last night in the snow. >> which game? >> i mean, you say andrew not knowing -- >> i'm thinking ohio state and michigan. if you saw what happened after the game, which was also in the snow. >> that was on saturday. yesterday was -- college games are on saturday. >> i know. i do know. >> they were winning on saturday for a while. >> they did win, but lost the basketball game. >> no, last night, it was a good
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game. it was brock purdy came back, but they lost and i think buffalo versus -- i think they -- they know how to play. >> they had to dig the stadium out. >> they know how to play better in snow in buffalo, they're used to it. i'm told apparently you can now get some of these newspapers online is what i've just been informed and that -- >> is this your boomer report? >> yes. and the biden -- the hunter biden pardon story is on the front page at the top of "the new york times."com. it is hard to believe they couldn't get this -- it seemed like it was kind of early, but it is not anywhere here. but it is front and center. so you got to hand it to them. front and center -- i didn't go to bed until 9:00. >> what? >> i went to bed at 9:00. i got in here -- i got in here earlier than andrew. which is what you did today. >> do you know why? >> i have no idea. >> caylee was up, caught me trying to leave this morning and
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it was an issue. >> you were busted. >> it was an issue. i could not get out the door. >> i had to go to the airport first thing already. >> before you came here? >> yes. >> that's impressive. i got caught and dragged back in because of a bad night's sleep from someone. >> oh, my god. you look -- you look fine. you look better than i look. >> thanks to the hair and makeup room. we appreciate that. all right, when we come back, some new numbers on black friday shopping from mastercard. we have that straight ahead. and later, harvard's arthur brooks on how to make your life happier. "squawk box" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it.
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just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.
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everybody. the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a good one this year. that's according to fresh insights from mastercard spending pulse which found that black friday retail sales were up 3.4% from last year. online retail sales were up by 14.6%, while in store sales inched up by less than 1% from a year ago. and joining us right now with more on the findings and the rest of the shopping season is michelle meyer, chief economist at mastercard economics institute. let's start with those black friday numbers. that's pretty strong numbers, up by that much. how much of it is because the holiday season is later and how much of it is we're just dealing with a stronger consumer? >> i think it is a little bit of both. the calendar effect means that
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consumers have been monitoring, watching what is available and gearing up what seems to be spend on this one day on black friday. i think it is a search for value as well, which is contributing to that. that's the theme we have seen from this consumer for some time. once we start to see this relief on inflation, starting to see prices decline and promotions come back in, consumers have been really geared to find those deals and that best value. so i think that's another big motivating factor that drove strong spending on e-commerce on black friday. >> that says something though, too, if they're waiting for deals and the sales number was still up, even with those deals, that means they're buying a heck of a lot more stuff. >> 100%. think about the volume, right? it is nominal spending. within that is real sales, volume, and it does certainly seem like that was quite strong because it is an environment where promotions were pretty heavy. >> what does that actually tell you about the strength of the consumer. if they're spending but only when a deal comes, what does that mean? >> i think the consumer has the ability to spend. they have the willingness to
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spend, but they're being savvy. they're being mindful about trying to make sure their purchasing power is used in a way that is most powerful for them. but they have the ability to spend because of the labor market. and we're going to see what happens on friday. it is going to be quite important in terms of understanding how the labor market is continuing to evolve into this holiday season. but as of now, jobs are still being added, pretty solid rate, unemployment rate is hovering at 4.1%, and wage growth is running above underlying price inflation, so there is real wage growth and real purchasing power. those are really important factors for consumers, especially this time of year, where they're that much more willing to go out and engage. >> how you feeling about the economy overall when you look at what corporations are doing right now? you can look at the stock market and we have been watching it since the election. it is really last month was the best month we have seen when it comes to the markets. how does that translate into what you see in the real economy? >> fundamentals of the economy are sound and they have been throughout the cycle.
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people have been underestimating this business cycle, underestimating the economy. and i think that's been a problem, right, because we have seen time and again an economy that is running above its underlying trend. partly supported by the consumer, but also supported by businesses. business investment has been strong. the last few quarters have shown improvement. r&d is driving it. we're also seeing some improvement in capex as well. and the supply side has been a positive that people also have probably underestimated, the fact that the labor force participation rate for cyclical workers, that's picked up. productivity has been strong. so, it is a combination of stronger demand side responses, and supply side positive dynamics that have led this economy to continue. >> there is no way the ten-year should be going down in yield now, given what -- everything that is being proposed in terms of, you know, adding the deficit tariffs, more tax cuts, all the
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things. so, other than the economy telegraphing some weakness there is nothing else that explains why we're at 4.21 on the ten-year right now. >> it depends why it bounced around the last couple of weeks. >> why did it go up? the fed cut, and why did the rates continue to go higher, higher, higher, higher? >> a bit of a repricing of monetary policy in the federal reserve. you saw the first fed cut and the summer and dovish sentiment kicked in, it was a view that the fed was going to be continuing to cut, the economy was more feeble. the data since that first 50 basis point cut looked better. growth looked better, retail spend looked better. >> yields went up. why are they coming down then? >> i would argue that it is not a trend lower. that it is kind of just hovering around. i don't think it is meaningful. >> we heard 3.75 we could hit from -- >> i think it is pricing in and out policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy. >> it did come down ever since
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the scott bessent was signaled as treasury secretary. you wonder if that's a signal of what to really expect with tariffs. >> he's a tariff guy, though. he's on board with that. >> he said now. >> tariffs might not necessarily, you know, we don't know how many -- >> it depends on how they're used, implemented. if they're used as negotiating tool. >> everything we're hearing, rates should be headed higher. that was the big fear, rates are going to go through the roof. i don't understand. >> we'll have spending increases. >> combined with tariffs. >> i think it depends on whether you're pricing in policy, pricing in fundamentals today. ten-year is supposed to be how the economy is in the future. that's where i think a lot of the gyration is coming from how the market is pricing in future policy, thinking about cabinet points and how policy is going to translate. whether or not it is
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inflationary over the long run or not. >> if it is pricing in -- if the economy is as good as you say, then the rates should not be going down, right? >> yeah. >> the economy i think is sound. yeah. >> if we go under 4%, still on the ten-year, you still think so? >> i still think the economy is strong. the data we are tracking that we're seeing -- >> you sound like -- there will be growth in the spring. the economy is sound. old, old, movie. >> got it. >> boomer report. >> thank you. >> michelle, thank you for coming in. >> my pleasure. coming up, elon musk is asking a court to block openai from converting to a for profit company. that story is next. in the next hour, latest market call from fundstrat's tom lee. time to check in with tom. "squawk box" will be right back.
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elon musk asking a federal court to stop openai from converting into a for profit business. musk's attorneys filed for a preliminary injunction friday. if granted, it would hold openai's plans to convert into a fully for profit public benefit corporation. the injunction alleges that openai prevents its investors from funding competitors including musk's xai. in a statement, on openai spokesperson said elon's fourth attempt, which again recycles the same baseless complaints continues to be utterly without merit. >> i was wondering what openai
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thinks about elon musk's close relationship with the incoming administration. because he has been very vocal about the problems at openai. made some pretty good points about what was supposed to be a not for profit and how that has changed over time. and now he's competing directly against it. >> right. right. twitter all the time, picks out all the stories for me. i don't need -- a lot of times it says we're not sure if this is true. >> when we come back, shares of stellantis are falling after ceo carlos tavares resigned abruptly yesterday. phil lebeau has that story. we'll take a quick look after the break, but right now, you can see stellantis shares are down by 8.5%. "squawk box" will be right back. it all started with a small business idea. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business, next
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market site in times square. the futures this morning barely budging, but mixed. the nasdaq indicated off by about 32 points on this first trading day of the month. joe? stellantis shares falling after the ceo carlos tavares resigned abruptly and phil lebeau joins us now with more. hey, phil. >> hey, joe. this is not a huge surprise. a surprise that it is immediate, but not a huge surprise in terms of it has been known for some time within the auto industry that carlos tavares and the stellantis board were not on the same page. it all spilled out into the open yesterday when tavares immediately resigned from the company. the independent director for the company issuing a statement saying in recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the board and the ceo coming to today's decision. stellantis has been a world of hurt over the last year.
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q3 sales in the united states down 20%. why? a glut of vehicles because in the first half of this year, carlos tavares and he's even said, look, i was arrogant keeping our prices high, keeping production as high as it was, and as a result, dealers were furious. furious that they were having so many vehicles essentially flooding the new vehicle market whether it comes to jeep and ram. their sales suffered as a result. first half profit for the company overall negative 48%. look at stellantis versus gm and ford, we should point out the company is reaffirming its 2024 full year financial guidance. that's not going to matter a whole lot to investors today. what does matter is what is the future here? john elkann, the chair of stellantis, and an executive committee, will take over tavares' duties until they find a new ceo, which is expected in the first half of next year.
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guys, they're behind the eight ball in terms of new product rolling out, especially when you come to jeep and ram. yes, those brands are incredibly strong in north america, but they really have been mismanaged to a certain extent over the last year, year and a half. and that's reflected in what you've seen with shares of stellantis. just hammered this year, i think, what, down 45%, 48%, something like that, compared to general motors and ford. we'll see what happens over the next couple of months, guys. but john elkann, you know, he was the chair at fiat chrysler. when they put together stellantis, everybody said carlos tavares is the man to do it. he turned around opal after they bought it from general motors in europe, but the increased competition in europe is another issue, especially with chinese automakers. they have a number of things they got to get fixed here. >> is it totally self-inflicted that prices were kept too high? and -- >> yes. >> that's a case of arrogance
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from the top down? >> he called himself arrogant. he called himself arrogant. look, we had him on the "squawk box" set with you guys there. one thing you can say about carlos tavares, he is always maintained when he makes the decision, that's the right decision. you can't fault him along the lines of being wishy washy. it was immediate that you heard from ram and jeep dealers who were saying, stop it, stop the production as high as it is in north america in first half of this year and help us with the pricing. because the prices were far too high. now, they have cleared out a bunch of the inventory as they have increased their incentives, but they paid a price, a mighty price in the first half of this year. >> phil, you're not going to believe, i was watching a documentary on netflix and i heard a voice and i knew immediately that it was you. >> you knew. >> were you living in -- i went to school in boulder and i knew
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where the ramseys lived. i followed that so closely. and -- >> jonbenet ramsey? what were you doing there? >> you were a beat reporter covering it. i went back and looked. they have an actual picture of you -- boy, you were handsome, as a young man. >> and you are today, phil. >> the past tense word. that's nice. >> in your youth. >> in your youth. in your youth. >> you should listen to me, rather than him. >> phil, did you know at the time -- i remember how bad alex hunter was, but that detective, man, did they screw over the ramsey family without looking at what actually happened. do you have a view now on that? there was an intruder, i'm absolutely sure. >> some day we'll sit down and have a drink. i have many views. you don't coverry a story for years like i did without developing your opinion about certain things. we'll sit down and have a drink. >> mainstream media back then too. not you.
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but the -- it was more the yellow tabloid stuff. anyway, phil lebeau, still handsome, thank you. coming up, punch bowl's jake sherman will join us on president-elect trump's latest picks. arn president biden, the pdo of his son hunter. get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime. we'll be right back. with a dom, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo ♪ (animatronic santa) ho, ho, ho! (vo) time to move? make it easy with opendoor. sell your home in any season, for any reason. (animatronic santa) look at me! i am festive!
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over the weekend, canadian prime minister justin trudeau met with president-lect trump at mar-a-lago. both leaders called the meeting a very productive and said that trudeau pledged action to address some of trump's concerns. canada is studying adding more resources and personnel to its u.s. border and the way it's
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monitored. trump has threatened a 25% tariff on imports from canada and mexico unless each of the neighbors do more to stem migration and the flow of the drug fentanyl. joining us now with the latest on the trump transition and other issues, jake sherman, punch bowl news co-founder and nbc news and msnbc political contributor. i remember president-elect trump said i'm pretty sure that hunter is going to get a pardon. i guess a lot of people thought, you know, you're looking at 17 years, it is weird because the charges weren't -- i think there is something to it that maybe an average person -- it was a charges that weren't part of it that i'm more concerned with and it goes back to 2014 when he joined the board of burisma. the gun charges, the tax evasion, i don't know. i think what really got people's hair on fire is how many times
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the president, the first lady, or the press secretary said absolutely not, this will never happen. that's what's got people up in arms. >> -- he would do this, i don't know why he would say he wouldn't and furthermore, i don't know why he said he wouldn't and then did it and then did it before he left office. i mean, he was going to be sentenced, there were going to be hearings in court over the next couple of weeks. but now you've let open a long period of time for democrats to just pillory joe biden on capitol hill and elsewhere at a moment, joe, where democrats are soul searching to say the least. angry at biden. you had chris murphy on "meet the press" this week say it would have been helpful if joe biden stepped away from the race earlier. so i think you're going to see when congress returns this week
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just open season on joe biden and his decision-making here. >> i mean, if you were engaged in schadenfreude from the right, you are, like, you're almost overloaded. i saw that -- i don't know whether it is true. as a reporter, you need to look, but i heard that george clooney is really mad that barack obama threw him under the bus for being the person responsible for getting biden out. did you see that story? >> i didn't see that. i did not see that. i will call my friend george and see if there is anything -- >> i know you know all the stars. i made the point earlier, wow, you give, you know, on top of pete hegseth and, i mean, take your pick of the previous ones, throw kash patel into the mix and, god, there was so much raw meat. at least president biden could have thought about that. let that news cycle play out
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before you pardon hunter. >> yeah. and listen, trump has lined up a series of picks that at other times would be unconfirmable. there are four to six to eight if not more republican senators who are going to be in play here, mitch mcconnell, susan collins, lisa murkowski, todd young are the top four that come to mind on any of these picks including hegseth, kash patel and furthermore tulsi gabbard. and otherwise, if it weren't for this week as you mentioned, joe, the entire news cycle would have been about trump's very difficult cabinet picks. i think from top to bottom, because they're going to be many of them are going to be on capitol hill this week, doing meetings, but i think my brethren on capitol hill in the press corps are going to be asking democrats why joe biden
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pardoned his son after months and months and months of saying he would not do so. and, again, quite a self-inflicted wound for joe biden. >> i am not going to provide cover, i don't think, i'm not going to try, but it is already seeping out a little bit that the possibility of retribution from trump on his political enemies increased with the kash patel nomination for fbi. and therefore he was left with no choice for hunter, because it was just going to -- they were going to persecute hunter even more unfairly and this was an example that there was going to be retribution from the incoming administration. so that's why -- i think he already said that, didn't he? >> yeah, and i think, listen, the thing that was two points here, the thing that was really interesting to me in joe biden's statement, he said that anybody who was looking at these
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charges, this is on a quote, would come to the conclusion this is -- that this was -- these were charges that were aimed at damaging him politically. if he did believe that, for so long. then i'm not sure why he would take such a hard stance on not pardoning him for the last couple of months. that's number one. number two, kash patel said he has basically said he would go after trump's enemies and reporters, so, "the new york times" carried a very interesting story this weekend about business leaders who have been anti-trump, including reed hoffman of linkedin who told associates according to "the new york times" that he is thinking about moving out of the country. there is definitely heightened concern that people who have been in trump's -- who have taken aim at trump could be in political or legal peril, so i think, listen, i want to say one thing here, and i know this is trite and i know it is not
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always true, but, listen, trump says a lot and doesn't carry out a lot and i don't know if that's going to change in this next administration and as it did in the last administration. but only time will tell. >> and whenever, depending on how you view the world, which prism -- which cable channel you watch, jake, whenever you hear, for example, trump supporters would say when joe biden says if it wasn't hunter, none of these charges would have been filed, that just -- to a trump supporter, just saying, can you listen to what you're saying? if any of the trump charges that your justice department, all the lawfare that the right talks about, it is just -- both sides seem to be this gned outrage they can't believe it is happening when both have threatened or carried out what the other side is accusing the other side of. >> both might be true.
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donald trump probably would not be charged with what he was charged with if he weren't donald trump and hunter biden would probably not be charged with if he wasn't hunter biden. both of those things could be true. they could be false. that's exactly right. >> you know what else can be true, kjp could say, look, everything i told you, he wasn't -- there was never going to be a pardon. that was a fact. until it wasn't. it was true until it wasn't true. >> i think that's probably what he's saying. >> it was true until it wasn't true. >> but also i want to make one other point here, this is more esoteric in a sense, more academic, the presidential pardon power is i think getting another look right now because it is on its face very interesting to say the least that a president in his waning weeks in office can wipe out the charges of -- by the way, yes, it is in the constitution,
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becky, i completely agree with you. a lot of things are in the constitution or a lot of things are precedent that people call into question later on, and i think that, you know, he's not only -- it is worth noting, he's not only pardoned him for crimes that he allegedly has committed, he is pardoning him for the last decade for anything he has done. >> including crimes he admitted to. i think there is a real question to dig into the presidential pardon writ large. >> if they're still going to go looking into burisma or looking into the biden inc., the 25 shell companies or how many llcs there were in the millions of dollars, if they were going to do that, they can do that or no reason to anymore, jake? >> there is no reason to. perhaps there are -- i don't know. perhaps there are state charges that -- >> other people than just hunter. >> but, joe, there is another point to bring up here, "the new york times" has a great story
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this morning that indicates some of hunter biden's work potentially could have come under -- could have run afoul of pharaoh, which requires foreign agents to register with the government if carrying out business on behalf of a foreign government. it is not only charges he admitted to, he did not serve any time, as many people who get pardons have, this is charges that he -- things he might have done for the last decade that are now wiped clean. >> i mean, if you get a gun -- how many people get a gun illegal or otherwise and are using drugs? the prisons would be overflowing if every single person who is using drugs got a gun needed to go to jail. so, you're right, that probably -- i don't know -- >> it is not supposed to be for self-healing. the constitution gives you the power to do it with the exception of impeachment, but if anything -- >> listen, the -- i would just say that the -- if you look over the last presidency, over
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trump's last presidency, he did use pardons and commutations quite frequently for people that were not related to him or not related to his family. he did use them for people that were related to his family, but, a, those people served time. and it is an imperfect process. it is really imperfect. a lot of people who are pardoned go back -- some of them live great lives and are rehabilitated and have learned their lesson. some of them have not. and some of them do commit other crimes or do other things that are improper. so, it is an extremely imperfect process. >> someone in my ear said to tell you, jake, this is chinatown. that's the way things happen, which is a reference to a great polanski film. anything can happen. chinatown, washington, d.c., kind of the same. and, jake, that was his name, jake, the great -- jake geddes, two in the sequel. more boomer report coming up later. thank you, jake. >> thank you, joe. >> the third boomer report,
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right? >> yeah. i'm thinking roman polanski and his own issues. >> kitty cat, cut the jack, remember that? >> no, i'm thinking of roman polanski -- >> if you haven't watched, it is amazing. amazing. fay dunaway. blackrock is nearing a deal to become a major player in private credit. we have the details after this break. backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.
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more. a deal would give blackrock a firm foot hold into the private credit business. that is one of the hottest and most lucrative areas of finance. hps is one of the largest independent managers of private credit, with $123 billion in assets under management. when we come back, the u.s. commerceeptmt noci darenanunnglong awaited rules exports to china. we'll talk about the impact of the major players in the sector, right after this quick break.
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the futures are mixed. but we're not talking about any major action here. dow up by 12 points. s&p down by 5. the nasdaq off by 20. over to dom chu, he's got a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> let gaetz 's get things starh the check on stellantis. shares are down roughly 9% right now after ceo carlos tavares announced his resignation effective immediately. the company cited different views between tavares and the board of directors for the departure. the shares have fallen 50% so far this year. stellantis underperforms in the u.s., its prime cash-generating market. stellantis in focus there. turning to two chipmakers, nvidia and super micro, down this morning after bridgewater associates adjusted its position in the companies. they cut the nvidia position and bought more shares of super micro. nvidia up massively so far this year and super micro down 75% from the record highs in march. a little activity within
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technology. and we'll finish with a check on shares of gap stores. up 4% after jpmorgan upgraded the retailer to overweight from prior neutral. analysts say they expect growth opportunities in the low to midsingle digits and strength in its old navy and athleta business. gap shares up 3.5% on the cyber monday. for more on that and other top analyst calls of the day, head to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers get full access to the details and analysis behind those calls. gap stores probably appropriate for the cyber monday. back over to you. >> yeah, year to date up 20%. impressive. people have been asking about what your wardrobe was going to be post friday when you had the sweater, the open collar, and blazer. >> we're back to normal, i think. business attire. i think -- >> like trump today. >> well, i don't know. i would call it festive for this time of year. >> yeah, i like the cranberry color. >> i celebrate christmas.
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this is something i can get into it. i will tell you this -- >> the same tie. >> around christmas time -- >> you look like maga dom to me. you're sending out some vibes. >> i could be sending out vibes or could be christmas vibes, could be maga vibes, all kinds of things. but i'll put the sweater back on around christmas. maybe a reindeer sweater with a big red nose on it. >> there you go. >> dom, thank you. we'll see you later. the u.s. commerce department cracking down on sales of some chips. chip-making equipment and related software to china, those restrictions were paired down from earlier drafts of the rules. joining us right now to talk tech is ray wong, constellation research founder, chairman and principle analyst. good morning, ray. >> good morning. how are you doing? >> good. very good. good to be back after a wonderful holiday. let's talk about these new rules this morning. tough rules, but watered down
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from what we anticipated before. what is the impact on the stocks? >> it is a slight sigh of relief. these are going after memory chips, not the traditional a.i. chips we have been going after in the past because of advanced weapons systems in china can depend on it. it is the high bandwidth memory chips they're targeting. these are companies that produce the memory that actually happens inside computers and actually the ability to move that information around. and these high bandwidth memory chips are driving the ability to actually build sophisticated weapons systems. that's why other folks are targeting this in terms of a national security issue. but, you know, everything we're trying to do to slow china down gives them more incentive to rebuild the capabilities. we'll see if they end up in the middle east somewhere where the transactions occur and they get the chips and try to reverse engineer everything, which is what has been going on with a.i. chips and other chip technologies. >> some of the headlines today suggest that these tool controls that are being added to this
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could impact some other companies like an asml holdings. companies like lam research and applied materials on that list. do you share the same concerns or was this baked in? >> it was baked in. i think people were expecting it. people were surprised there was such a loophole going on for quite some time. and now that there is these restrictions in place, people have a better understanding what the game is going to look like for the next four years, especially in a trump presidency. >> what do you think of the chipmakers over the next year? we have seen a slowdown in the phenomenal growth that we experienced prior to the last couple of months in this sector. >> the chipmakers have boom and bust cycles. we have this big boom and bust cycle going on for a while. it is because of a.i. so the macro a.i. and a.i. boost from chips, hyperscalers, to software vendors, to real businesses and we're going to see that big shift. we'll see a rotation in the next six to 12 months out of chips
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from nvidia and tsmc to software companies that are delivering on a.i. and that's why the palantirs and why you'll see some things in a.i., and other companies where that piece is going to play a big role. it is part of the run-up on the apple side because they're actually putting the a.i. into use and people are starting to see how that is working, good or bad, depending on how people are reacting to the upgrades. >> the huge push that we have seen in a.i., is that something that is going to lift all boats or is this really just a case of there is going to be real winners who have the chips you want and everybody else who doesn't? >> so, this is the challenge with a.i. as i said before in the past, it is opposite of the internet. the internet was decentralized, open, there were lots of players, prices were coming down. what we have in this a.i. revolution is there are few winners, you end up with closed systems, you got situations where everything is costing more and more importantly this is going to be one of those situations where you don't have the open systems that are needed. we need more competition in a.i.
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and hopefully that will change with -- you saw the investment this morning, where jeff bezos is, like, backing the chip manufacturers in korea to compete against nvidia. you'll see more and more of the companies that are buying lots of chips from nvidia try to invest in alternatives. they don't want one winner or winner takes all market in terms of the supplier base either. >> does that tick off nvidia and do they then as a result stop giving as many chips to those companies that are now looking for other competitors to go along the way. those big buyers have been the ones who are able to really shepherd a lot of the chips coming out. they're able to pay big bucks right now. what does that mean? >> that's a great question. and i think the order books are out for the next 18 to 24 months so it is about a two-year buffer. there is also the shift, right? these companies aren't going to keep buying the data center chips at that rate. they need other alternatives and what you see is the shift to sovereign a.i., countries that
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have to deliver a.i. at scale citizens. this isn't something that any country can pick up and do and smaller countries and companies that don't have the capital investment are going to have to build up that consolidated purchase toward a.i. capabilities and then after that, we'll see what happens. that's 48 months out in terms of any projections. >> we have to run. i know you think m&a activity is going increase with the trump administration coming in and changes in the regulatory oversight. any names you're watching for potential plays right now? >> well, we saw what happened with adobe in the past and how those were blocked. there are a lot of companies waiting for the m&as. it is the big ones and the small ones and creating the ipo pipeline. you'll see a bunch of ipos open up which will create categories, stripe or data bricks, you're going to see some big piling in in terms of banks wanting to jump in, companies that are trying to make some acquisitions to bolster where they are.
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google and amazon and microsoft held back because they haven't been able to make the acquisitions. >> thanks a lot. we appreciate talking to you. >> thanks a lot. happy holidays. >> you too. coming up, why tom lee says the santa claus rally is alive and well. his latest call for the s&p 500 is next. and then later, host of the podcast how to build a happy life arthur brooks is going to join us. his take on the mood of the country as we hit the holiday season. "squawk box" will be right back.
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but says we could be entering what he's calling a zone of hesitation in the next couple of weeks. joining us now, tom lee, fundstrat capital chief investment officer and cnbc contributor. good to see you, tom. want to talk to you about the bond's ten year at some point. you see four reasons why you still expect the s&p to continue to rally in december and maybe to 6300 by year end. >> it is seasonality. december historically is a strong month, but when you're up more than 10% in the first half, and it is an election year, december has been up 100% of the time. the second is yields have moved down to pre-election levels. the ten-year at 4.1, that's good for multiple expansion. the third is i think it has been surprising, but sentiment has turned negative the last two weeks, even as the markets rally. to me, that's a contrarian bullish signal.
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and then faithly we still have two puts, the trump put and the fed put. i think that means you still want to buy any of these dips. >> what can trump do to make sure the market keeps going up? >> well, i think we have seen it with how he's made cabinet proposal or nominations that he's very probusiness and i think as many have said, trump is very focused on the stock market. communication is still a strategy and a reminder that animal spirits can come back. >> i don't know if you watch the way the financial -- say this tactfully. i don't know if you watch the way the financial media industry covers tariffs. i mean, how can you call him pro business according to these people when he's pro tariffs? because you would just think, watch the coverage of tariffs. >> to me, it is a reminder it is good to carry a big stick. i think tariffs have proven to
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be a good negotiating tool. i think we have seen some proactive actions by other countries. and in general, i don't think the new white house wants to pursue any policies that would hurt corporate profits. so i think ultimately whatever is accomplished is going to be pro business. >> interesting. all right. i hope everybody's listening. that is one man's opinion. whenever we talk about, like, the ten-year, it is always a -- well, good this way, but bad this way. if it is falling, which is good for multiple -- why isn't that indicating that maybe the economy isn't as strong as we thought and that maybe corporate profits won't hold up there and multiple expansion on one hand, but sometimes that's combined with a slowing in profit growth. >> it is a possibility. and it is always hard to tell what the bond market is telling
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us, but when i look at the next six to 12 months and we know the fed wants to reduce the cost of capital for homeowners and mortgages and for small business owners, having the ten-year stay at these levels or even fall is actually an easing of financial conditions. to me, that's a good sign. >> do you think that trying to -- this elon musk vivek ramaswamy thing, do you think it is, a, they can make real progress and, b, would that be a positive for economic growth or would it be a negative for economic growth because it is, you know, laying people off, spending less. >> well, i think it is great that someone is scrutinizing these -- >> bernie sanders said it was great. that's not good. >> well, i mean, these are huge budget items. so i would love to see someone really identify where there
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could be waste and is that bad for the economy? i think in general, most people view government spending as the least efficient capital. if you reduce government spending, and it has been crowding out private sector spending, i would rather see the private sector reinvest that capital. i think that would overall be -- >> zero sum gain. a lot of people would take any spending they can get, government or otherwise for an economy, for juicing the economy. >> yeah. you think it would go into private if it is not spent by the government? >> that's right. i think that would free up money. this is money, capital that the government spends is competing with private sector money. i would rather see the private sector invest this money at a higher rate of return. i think overall it would be positive for gdp and profits and for equities. >> do you want to -- bitcoin comment for you before we let you go. it got stuck under 100.
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that's a pretty -- that's psychological level, i would imagine. >> i think some of this could be -- there is a lot of folks who don't want bitcoin over 100,000 and some of it may be the exchanges themselves are concerned because there is a pretty low supply of bitcoin available over the counter. so you have a supply shortage and bitcoin makes a move above 100,000, that would be a big chase. i'm still confident bitcoin will close higher before year end. >> so break $100,000? >> well above $100,000 before year end. it is just a matter of time. >> december 2nd. not that long, tom. it is going to do it in the next four weeks? >> tom makes bold calls. >> i know. you're nuts. they all come -- usually they come true. all right, tom lee, thank you. >> great to see you. >> good to see you. when we come back, president-elect trump's plan to cap credit card interest rates,
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will it happen? plus, cyber monday, that's retailers' biggest online shopping day of the ar. we're going to talk deals and where people are spending money. "squawk box" will be right back. (woman) did i read this? did i get eggs? where are my keys? (vo) don't wait while memory and thinking issues pile up. these issues may seem like normal aging but could be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain. amyloid can build up over time. the sooner you talk to your doctor, the more options you may have. visit amyloid.com for additional information.
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all right, welcome back. president-elect donald trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has drawn support from progressives like senator bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. but some experts warn that that cap could come with a big catch. potentially making it much harder for consumers to qualify for credit cards or access lines of credit. joining us right now is natasha sarin, a yale university professor who is also a former treasury department official. also, michael strain is a.i. -- aei director of economic policy studies. let's start with you, because you don't like this policy at all. >> i don't like this policy at all. i think you got a situation where bernie sanders is for something, the progressive left is for something, and kind of populist nationalist right is for it and typically when those two groups are agreeing, the policy is bad. this is a policy that is
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effectively a price control. this is a policy that would lead credit card lenders not to extend credit to people with relatively low credit scores. people who are kind of just getting started in their careers or people who for whatever reason have a low score. those are often people who really need credit. the only way it makes sense to lend to them is to charge them a high rate of interest because their default risk is higher. so this is a kind of classic example of a policy with -- designed with good intentions, but then would end up hurting the very people that it is designed to help. >> natasha, can you speak to that? this is a situation, you don't want usery rates for credit cards, but you want to make sure people who are just starting out aren't going to be told there is no room for you, because you don't have a credit score, you don't have a credit history we can trust or make these decisions based on. >> and interestingly, this is an area where i agree with michael.
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it is a situation where you understand, like, the political attractiveness of a proposal like this. you have americans paying, it is high interest rate environment and americans are paying $100 billion a year in interest on credit card lending. but when you have such a proposal, you have to evaluate it not just for its intended consequences, but also for its unintended consequences. and michael is right, what is going to happen is certain types of consumers, particularly new borrowers who are subprime and don't have a credit history will be priced out of the market in a situation where banks and lenders aren't able to charge them a higher rate of interest. and what is going to happen when they get priced out of the market, what is going to happen is they're going to turn to more expensive alternatives so you have credit card interest rates that average 20% today, and payday lender interest rates are 400%. >> that's a really good point. this is a simplistic policy that ignores a lot of things. not just from the perspective that it doesn't get outside of the credit card industry. but, michael what about the idea
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we say 10%, okay, maybe that's one thing when the ten-year is sitting at 4% and change. what happens if rates were to go up to 8%, 9%, 10%, that would price a lot of people out of the market. >> it would. and, again, it is a good example of why it is difficult for the government to kind of reach into markets. and micromanage what is happening with businesses. 10% is a rate that sounds high, and zero interest rate environment, but we are no longer in a zero interest rate environment. and there are a whole lot of reasons to believe that yields are going to rise even higher relative to where they are today. and that makes 10%, you know, look more and more restrictive. >> i do want to say, this, like, i don't want to sort of agree with michael fully in that this credit card market and payments market in general are an area where regulatory intervention i think can be successful. >> what is the right way to do this? if this is not the right way, what would you recommend, natasha? >> there are two component
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parts. one is that credit card contracts used to be a page long and readable to you and me. i teach corporate finance. and credit card contracts today are 38 pages long, and indeseaverable indecipherable to people who don't have a degree. >> others say that is because of sarbanes oxley. >> i think they're thinking about regulation and the way to accurately design regulation is super important. understanding that what has happened is the markets have become more complex is these card companies are able to attach contract terms that no one reads that raise the price of credit for consumers. and the result is not just that the price of credit is high, it is also that we don't actually know what we're paying for credit. and so i think a really important aspect here is disclosure, a really important aspect here is thinking seriously about the ways in which we can try to get at some of the hidden terms. >> disclosure sounds like the contracts are going to get even
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longer. >> i totally -- disclosure, simplicity, i agree with you. >> their y're two different thi. >> i really think in payments markets it is important for us to unpack when you and i go to the grocery store and pay with our rewards credit cards, we get a kickback in the form of rewards points or airline miles, and when sort of poor people who disproportionately pay in cash maybe because they don't have access to credit cards, they don't get access to any of those same type of rewards. >> i don't know how you fix that. do you agree with natasha on this point? >> no, i don't agree with natasha on this. i think that grocery stores and retail stores should be free to give those kickbacks to people they want and if paying with a credit card is more valuable to a grocery store or retail store than paying in cash or paying with a check, the grocery store
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should be able to engage in that transaction the way that they see fit. trying to micromanage that type of payment -- >> natasha, it sounds like you -- it sounds like you're saying something more like airline rewards programs, but what does that mean? they have to let everybody into the program? >> just to be clear -- no, no, no. not all. the credit card companies are paying -- are charging a 5% interchange rate on these transactions. that means that when you go to the grocery store, the grocer has to pay 5% for your using your rewards credit card. someone pays in cash, the grocery store doesn't have to pay anything. because of the way that card company has designed these contracts, it is impossible for the grocery store to pass on that 5% just to those consumers who are paying with their rewards credit cards. so the result is higher prices for everyone and rewards just for those at the very top of the distribution. and i don't think that's a fair system. i don't think that's an
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equitable system. >> so nobody should be able to offer those rewards to customers who they want on as customers? >> no, people should be able to offer rewards to customers, but if you compare us to europe and australia, they don't have those type of regressive subsidies in their system and the reason they don't is because they have designed regulations -- >> it is not a subsidy that comes from a taxpayer. this is a company that wants to subsidize who they think is going to be a valuable customer, that's a different thing. >> but what happens in those countries is that the cost of transacting on those credit cards is born by the consumers who are paying with those credit cards. that's not what happens in the u.s. today. the cost of transacting with those cards is born by everyone. and so i do think there is a way to better target those costs and those benefits so they hit exactly the consumers who they should rather than being born by people who are paying with cash today because they don't get access to rewards, they just pay higher prices. >> add it to the list of unfair
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things in life. we got to stop the conversation here because we're out of time. we'll have you both back. michael, natasha, thank you. >> thank you so much. the futures this morning, not a lot of action so far. h.t was a great mont we're going to have much more on the markets with professor jeremy siegel in half an hour. we'll be right back.
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coming up, it's cyber monday. we're going to talk deals and xpti aetailers are eecngs far as sales go. later, federal reserve chairman jay powell's future, former kansas city fed president tom hoenig will join us. "squawk box" will be right back. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors.
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we'll get you there. (intercom) flight deck we are go for launch! cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. (ethan) is that the one? (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...is that a walk in closet? (ethan) i want those tiles! (intercom) boosters engaged. (ethan) wait! we've got a problem! (janet) problem?! (ethan) how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (tanya) no, no! bad timing, janet!!! (janet) but that was the one!!!! (brian) no, no, no... opendoor!! (tanya) don't open the door. (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (all) really? (brian) yea!!! (intercom) we have liftoff.
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well, even though consumers can shop 24/7 from anywhere on their phones, a lot of them are waiting to check out cyber monday deals. courtney reagan joins us right now with more on what the retailers are actually expecting on this cyber monday. hey, courtney. >> i'm at one of them here at home depot. it is actually the fifth largest online retailer in the country. might be surprised to hear that. and there are 2 million items
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available to order on the website, the retailer says it is already off to a very strong start this holiday season. it is expecting that hundreds of thousands of items will be fulfilled on this cyber monday. and 90% of the u.s. population has the option of same or next day delivery. interestingly, more than half of online orders end up being fulfilled by stores. this is one of 19 direct fulfillment centers, but part of a much larger network of about 500 distribution centers or warehouses. >> it is best time of year to buy a major appliance. those are popular. that promotion is going for a couple of weeks and then tools. we have the best assortment in power tools, the best brands, the best products, milwaukee, de walt, rigid, mikita, those are some of our best-sellers right now. >> and in fact, the home
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appliances, dining and furniture, was the top growing category for black friday compared to last year, up 17%, followed by foot ware and handbags and apparel. cyber monday marks the end of retail's big five shopping 40% they will shop today. it is the largest online spending day of the year at least in the u.s. the big question is how much spending power will consumers have left? mastercard says total black friday sales grew more than 3% with strength in apparel and foot ware. it does estimate that overall traffic fell more than 3% on black friday. but perhaps that means purchasing shifted online. online sales hit a new black friday record, $10.8 billion, up 10.2%. we should note that adobe analytics said you'll get the
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best discount on electronics. average discount of 30%. make those lists, start shopping. back over to you. >> i saw ere you were on friday. we talked to you from the garden state plaza in paramus. i saw pictures later of the parking lot there, completely overflowed, nowhere to go anywhere. it made me think, okay, maybe black friday wasn't dead in terms of being in the stores. but you think online is really going to be the big story about this holiday season? >> yeah, it is so interesting. i can only be in one place and garden state plaza, unbelievable. there was no parking spots to be had. people were circling the parking lot, waiting for someone else to pull out to be able to come in. retail says an aggregate, foot traffic was down, but they predicted they would see a slight increase in store traffic. everybody can shop online. maybe it means that conversion
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wasn't as high. maybe you went to the stores, didn't check out as much in the stores but you bought online and look at the mastercard numbers. that's all spending. that's total. i think it is sort of mixed picture, depends on where you were, what you were buying. i think online is still going to be the story. we're still putting up records year after year, day after day on these big days. thanksgiving this year, bigger than thanksgiving last year. black friday this year, bigger than black friday last year. cyber monday, again, expected to hit records in aggregate and many retailers. >> okay. courtney, thank you. >> thank you. by the way, we will have more on today's online shopping extravaganza and talk about social media's role in holiday shopping. especially when it comes to ads, links and influencers who are helping the creator economy. we'll have more on that in a little bit. also, podcaster, author, and
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president emeritus of the american enterprise institute, arthur brooks is going to join us. "squawk box" will be right back. save big on solo stove and blackstone. shop in the dick's app. and give the gift of sport at dick's! say christmas. christmas! for holiday traditions old and new, when you want gifts to express a lifetime of love. we've spent a lifetime crafting them. harry & david, 90 years and still sharing.
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as we wind down 2024, our next guest has some tips to maximize happiness through the holidays and into 2025. joining us now is arthur brooks, american enterprise institute president emeritus. he is a columnist for "the atlantic," a podcast host and author of "build the life you want," author of a lot of great books. >> thanks, joe. >> you're welcome. the holidays and i agree with you, thanksgiving is -- we do need to sit back and look around and say, wow, we really have it made. when you get past shelter and food and clothing and, you know, worrying about, you know, survival, that's when we seem to
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run into trouble and bogged down in -- but, i'll just say, the holiday -- i'm ecstatically happy for a lot of reasons, but the holidays around christmas can be difficult for people. i'm not sure why. loneliness maybe. >> a lot of people have real trouble with their family situation, for example. and when you're being forced to be as cheerful as you can possibly be it sometimes promotes the opposite reaction. that's why it is thanksgiving that is the most popular holiday of the year. >> not the dessert. >> thanksgiving, thanksgiving is the best psychology that we can possibly imagine. the reason is because we're being asked to be grateful, not to be cheerful. rather to be grateful. the human brain processes resentment very efficiently and gratitude very poorly. we're evolved to have more negative emotions than positive emotions. that's what kept you alive, negative emotions, something is going to hurt me or kill me.
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but if you manually actually focus on the more appropriate emotion, which god bless america, look at the abundance we have and the security we have, we can be focused on the election, anything we're resentful about, but gratitude is reality. on thanksgiving people are being asked to be grateful and that refocuses themselves, we can actually do that almost every day. from now until the end of the year, our viewers could actually put together gratitude lists, they look at once a week, they update once a week and look at every day and by the end of the year, they'll be between 10% and 20% happier than they are now. >> that's a big part of addiction too, they teach gratitude. >> absolutely. and the reason is you want to be working on the parts of your brain that are focusing on the things you have as opposed to the things you don't have. addiction is all about the things you don't have and you're trying to fill a hollowness. gratitude is about the things you have for which you're feeling positive about those particular things, your family
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members, for example. this is one of the reasons that to get out of addiction you need more love relationships for which you're grateful and be paying attention to those things. we're all a bunch of addicts now. we're all a bunch of addicts, the bad news and resentment and anger and we can put it down. we can voluntarily put it down, but we have to pick something else up and that's love in our life. >> i don't know if we want to go into it anymore, about certain relatives not being welcome and, you know, i read articles where i'm never talking to either my mother or my father or my neighbor or i'm never going to speak to them, to me it is tiresome and almost juvenile. >> it is very sad. and the -- when you hate for whatever particular reason, i'm not speaking to somebody for however they voted in an election, you been the product.
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this is extremely profitable for viewers and certain shows, for social media followers, for money, straight up money, and so don't be the product. don't -- refuse to be used. stand up to the man like they used to say in the 1960s and we can be free and then focus on the things that matter in our lives. this could be the -- who knows, "squawk box" challenge, more gratitude from now to the end of the year. what are you grateful for, joe? >> i can't think of anything i'm not grateful for. my health. my family. i was going to say my hair, but i don't want to -- i won't say that. if you've got -- if you've got a loving family and your health, what else -- >> you have a job you enjoy. >> well, let's not get carried away. no, you're right, i do. >> we're living in a society that is the freest, most
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prosperous upwardly mobile charitable society in the history of the world and you're talking about it every day on "squawk box" about all the incredible things going on -- >> i was going to read you some -- i get a lot of great tweets. but i was going to read -- i can't read you this one. there is to many f words in it and genitalia. no, i can't. but you are truly a -- i'm not going to read it. jerk off. >> yeah. >> but social media -- >> yeah, yeah, totally. >> isn't it -- doesn't it put us all on sort of steroids? >> it can be. it depends on the reaction. i follow you on social media. you're awesome. you're hilarious. thank you for watching my show. thank you for watching my show. it is unbelievable. >> it is better not to answer at all. >> the whole point is that answering with gratitude changes your heart and not just theirs. >> how do we put this into
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business terms? there are business leaders who are maybe excited in some areas about potential changes coming, others unnerved because they don't know what it is going to mean for their industry. we have seen some big swings every four to eight years in terms of what rules we lay down and there are ceos who are putting billions of dollars to work based on knowing what the plans are going to be. >> policy uncertainty. it is a ping-pong ball between the 5% margins of most right wing and most left wing. that's a big problem in this country, for sure. but great ceos, great business leaders, look, smart people act like entrepreneurs. and entrepreneurs know that every challenge is actually an opportunity. something is going to be coming at you. if you're a great ceo, you're going to get there first to exploit the opportunities based on even the uncertainty we have coming our way. i know a lot of people who are really smart and when things are weird, they get rich.
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>> from these cabinet appointments, it just seems that president-elect trump is going to try to promises made, promises kept. he's going to do -- he's going to try to do that. >> yeah. >> when you're trying to do, even just criminal deportation of illegal immigrants that have committed crimes, even doing that, you know how difficult that's -- it is going to be gut wrenching and you know that legacy media, there is going to be a story of not just dozens deported, but every single push that is deported, i'm going to know everything about their family, legacy, it is going to be tugging at the heart strings for every single person, illegal, criminal, or not, and we're talk 11 million or even more. how is that going to -- how is anyone going to be happy when this is happening? >> these are hard changes that are going to have to come that the president is proposing and my guess is they're going to deport a lot fewer than they're
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talking about. and get a lot more mileage out of deporting dangerous criminals, which is what they talked about. going toe to toe with how the media would portray every sad story, they can actually have a triumphal story about getting somebody who is dangerous out of our country. more to the point, you should give -- i'll let you go. you should give them advice on that. they need to know how to handle this in a way where you are able to highlight the benefits, not the cruelty of what we're going to hear from legacy media, right? >> they should do the most they can starting with -- >> i'll talk through this. we all get these frogs in our throats. >> you were cheering one of the football games yesterday. >> actually, i was -- spending the day with my grandson and he gave me some bug, i'm not going to give it to you. >> no. >> i really wish andrew was here. >> i'm a lot more grateful for
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my grandson. >> you had a thought to finish. i don't think we'll be able to -- we'll gratefully let you -- >> sorry about that. good old voice, you know, this is my favorite show. one thing i'm grateful for, i'm grateful for the two of you. >> we're grateful to have you here. i always look forward to you. >> i come once a month. i look forward to this so much and i watch the show. and you're doing a great thing for the country and a great thing for me. thank you. >> we love having you on. thank you very much. >> thank you. when we come back, we're going to look at the creator economy and how influencers are making money on social media this cyber monday. and then, market historian and finance professor jeremy siegel on the markets and the final month of 2024. month of november was pretty great. we'll see what december is going to bring for the markets. "squawk box" will be right back. (♪♪) everyone has goals and dreams.
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etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. right now we want to check in with the creator economy, where live shopping on social media platforms has exploded this black friday and cyber monday with creators hosting real time live streams that let viewers shop deals instantly. this trend is driving billions of dollars in sales as consumers
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embrace a more interactive way to shop. joining us right now is amber venbox. ltk powers much of the success connecting creators with brands to revolutionize the creator economy. and amber, first of all, welcome. second of all, let's break down what it is that you do. just so people understand these live shopping events, i kind of think it as qvs. am i right to think of it that way? >> we're a three-sided marketplace. we're a place where creators maintain their audience and make everything they publish available to shop. whether on their ltk or across social media or blog or newsletter, and for the retailers we're helping them to reach those creators and make products available for them. what is unique about ltk, a little different from what you typically see in true life shopping, while we're a large and growing video platform, our
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creators are actually asset light. they're not holding inventory. what you're seeing now on cyber monday is on the live shopping side is retailer-based, an urgency to purchase those products, but they're holding inventory. gary was on last week talking about that. he holds inventory. the types of creators we're talking about are different in that they're incorporating 100 products a minute into their content with things they use and love in their life. >> so it is marketing what you're really talking about. these are people saying i use this, it is great, you should use it too, but finding a way to send those people immediately to the brands. and maybe it would help if people understand how you came about doing this. you are a blogger back in 2011, you were writing about things you really liked and then you realized you weren't getting paid for the products that you were convincing people to buy. so, this is kind of how you got into this? >> absolutely. i offlined, i had a personal shopping business.
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you need to get dressed for your month of "squawk box," i would get everything in your size and style that looks great on you, bring it into your home and exchange pieces that didn't work and help you check out and that was a very manual offline process. i started a website in 2010 to actually bring that business online and to market it. the problem was i wasn't able to bill retailers online for the purchases i drove. so my then boyfriend, now husband and i created ltk to really modernize that offline shopping business. so today we have hundreds of thousands of creators, over a thousand of people are ltk millionaires. they're able to talk about everything they love. whether they're an athlete and running in fitness or like me and they love to show their lifestyle, their home, their fashion, their kids, really across all categories. we started in fashion, expanded to beauty and home and now everything from grocery and talk about your favorite keto bars to designer handbags, everything is made immediately shopable. you can think of the ltk
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platform as the first platform purpose built for a creator to do two jobs. one to reach their audience every day, which is the most important thing about them. and then second is integrating all the products that that audience sees to make it the most efficient way to shop. that really maximizes the monetization for our creators so they don't have to have a sales team or wake up and day and pitch a brand. they can talk about things they love and earn a commission by doing that. >> what commissions do retailers pay for this? let's say you convince somebody to buy a sweater. how much does the influencer get and ltk? >> the influencer may get 10% to 20% depending on the retailer and ltk makes money by taking a transaction fee on every transaction. we expect for our shoppers to buy over $5 billion worth of products on the ltk platform. that's just what's happening online. there's so much more even happening with the research that's happening on ltk and people going into stores. and so it's become a pretty scaled business and something
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that, you know, over the last decade has become the vast majority of the population notes they do shop actively from creators and the wider population it's 56% right now buy from creators and that's a 64% increase just year over year. >> but very quickly, again, the transaction fee you charge, is that more or less the 1%? >> you know what, it will depend by retailer. we've negotiated by retailer. the creator gets their commission the brand has set aside for them and we take a transaction fee. and on the other side of the business, that's half the revenue. our creators get brand deals through the platform. what's amazing now we have the largest proprietary data set in the industry when it comes to creator across all platforms, retailers, brands, price points, and so we now have an a.i. powered platform for brands to enter the goals for their campaign, finding the right creator at the right price for them and our creators are paid a
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flat fee on that side of the business and on the brand side paying a saas fee or management fee or both. our goal is to make them as economically successful as possible. that's always been the case and they've earned over $3 billion on our platform. >> okay. amber, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you. it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. among the day's top stories, the commerce department is moving to limit sales of some chips, chip making equipment and related software to china. it's an effort to curb china's development of advanced weapons in advanced a.i. systems for military use. there are some of the names. shares of automaker stellantis are slightly lower. the ceo resigned from the company amid slumping sales in north america. a search for his successor is under way.
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and bitcoin etfs notching a record month for inflows. data shows $6.5 billion flowed into the funds boosted in part by donald trump's election. the futures this morning have been quiet, up nine points on the dow. the nasdaq indicated up 12, and you can see the s&p basically about flat, unchanged. treasuries, yields continue -- well, they're not dropping but they are at 4.20 on the 10 year which, i don't know, it's confusing to some. interesting to others. let's get to mike santoli, who is looking at the market this morning. every day when i look at, for example, why the market's up or down, i see interesting things written by someone in their 20s usually about what's going on. i don't know if it's worthwhile to try to figure out why we're at -- did i say 4.20?
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that's an elon musk number, is it not? >> yeah. >> is it at 4.20? it went up. i didn't know why it was up, headed for 5. i don't know why it's headed back down. >> a quick run up to 4.40 or 4.45 or so. we're pulling back from there. got a good look at that in a minute. the markets are just barely hesitating here at pretty interesting levels at record highs for the s&p 500. you had a very strong month of november within a pretty strong trend. so year to date basis you see this similar angle a few different rallies we've had within the year look pretty much kind of to rhyme in terms of trajectory. recently we got this real push higher as people got much more confidence about the economic outlook. the fed is cutting back. yields don't seem out of control. we have some round numbers to contend with, 6,000 on the s&p, 45,000 on the dow, 100,000 bitcoin, maybe, that will create
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an opportunity for a wait-and-see moment. right now it's a bull market. december tends to be strong three-quarters of the time, though not all the time, and so that seems to be what people are using as their base case. take a look here at the citi economic surprise index. there's a lot of macro data coming. ism manufacturing all the way through the jobs number on friday. and what you've seen here is it's been better than expected on average in terms of economic numbers, but we have sort of rolled over just a little bit here. this was the growth scare we got in late summer. that's when bond yields crashed and then we got the fed cutting rates in september. a little more expectation that the economy was going to be able to certainly avoid more of a downturn. but what's interesting here you had this kind of burst here late last year because expectations were so low. now expectations from economists are relatively high, so we're struggling to be better than those numbers. now take a look at the 10-year treasury yield, and it has a similar feel to it. this was the growth scare right
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down there. the fed cuts rates right in there. longer term yields are higher. now we've curled over again and it starts to look like maybe we have lower highs here, buyers coming in at progressively lower bond yields. who knows if that's something we can rely on down the road. the equity market is comfortable with yield around these levels. >> i would trust the markets and the market to know exactly what some policy initiatives and the likelihood of the across-the-board things we're hearing about. i would trust the markets to know how likely it is. at this point if you extend the 2017 tax cuts, you do all these other tax cuts, you put in all these across-the-board tariffs, you do all the stuff -- the worst case scenario that the pearl clutchers and hand wringers are talking about, there's no way rates should be coming down, mike. >> well, yeah, if you think all
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that stuff will be inflationary, that's right. and, in fact, i was just looking the other day, the market-based expectation numbers have also come in. so, in other words, they're not suggesting alarm on the inflation front. now, look, i don't know -- we see some pretty sharp whipsaws in the market. when did the market know and started to rethink afterwards following the data to a large group. i agree in broad terms which is right now using the probability we can envision in the market is trying to digest, yeah, it doesn't seem like an inflation emergency is on the way if nothing else. >> we are talking basis points. i mean, we just talked an awful lot about -- less than a full half a point move when we used to be -- i can remember it moved two points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points in one day back in 1987. >> what was the rate? >> i was walking to school both
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ways. i think it was -- maybe 9%, i think, on the long bond, and it went to, like, 7. >> that's still a pretty significant move. >> scary. the stock market was down like 30% in one day. all right, thanks. >> yep. for more on the markets on this final trading month of the year, we want to bring in jeremy siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the university of pennsylvania's wharton school of business. he's also chief economist at wisdom tree. and, jeremy, i don't know if you just heard that conversation. i'm going to assume you did. how would you weigh in on this just in terms of what the market knows, what the market anticipates, what we should be expecting from policy in the incoming trump administration? >> yeah, good morning, becky. i know joe has been asking about what's going on with the 10 year. if you remember, on the day of the election, the 10 year jumped by almost 20 basis points.
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i think that was a shot across the bow saying to trump, be careful of all the tax cuts. now i think that the market will certainly accept an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, but, remember, trump promised a lot more, and it really started turning around, becky, as you said, when scott bessent was, you know, basically nominated as the secretary of treasury because he's known as someone that takes a reasonable stance on the deficit. the deficit is a long-term problem. i don't think it's short term, but if every single one of trump's promises on tax cuts does take place, i think that's going to pressure the bond market, and i think scott's nomination really was the start of taking that pressure off. >> well, probably also
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recognizing that incoming president trump cares about the market's reaction to -- and uses it as a measuring stick of kind of a report card -- >> absolutely. no other president uses the stock market more than president trump. i would also like to comment on this recent trump tweet, if you would want to call it, about 100% tariffs on the bric countries if they start a new currency. i find that curious because i think the biggest threat to the dollar being used as a reserve currency is bitcoin, we we all hear trump is a big supporter of. a reserve currency when really bitcoin is being talked about by many countries in the world.
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some get into cryptocurrency. i wonder how it will play itself out once we hear the details. >> jeremy, what are you expecting? what do you think will happen? you anticipate that some of his stances will be moderated because he will care about the stock market's reaction to this -- >> absolutely. >> and that's why -- uribe positive on stocks as a result? >> i am positive. i know tom -- >> tom lee. >> -- who i respect tremendously -- thinks another 5% this month. i wonder whether we brought forward the good december in november because of his election so it might be a little bit harder to get to 6300. i wonder if tom think there will be a pause after that.
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i'm beginning to see that the mag seven is a little bit lagging the rest of the market. are we seeing the beginning of the rotation? i think this month might begin to tell us maybe the mag seven will do nothing next year and those small and mid-sized cap stocks which are really so undervalued compared to the others are finally going to have their day in the sun. >> and that's okay with you? >> i think that's perfect. that will keep the bull market going. >> what would you anticipated, maybe we've already pulled some gains forward into november, what are you expecting for next year? >> i think -- i'm expecting a much quieter market. we've had two blockbuster years, 2023-2024. so i'm expecting an s&p probably in the zero to 10% range, but i
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think the mag seven and tech group might be flattish. so you're probably in the 5 to 15% range for the rest of the market. the mag seven is one-third of the s&p valuation, so maybe for once we will see relative softness on the big high flyers that have been so good for the market the last two years and finally those others going up. but the s&p being one-third of those high flyers, if they do falter next year or even really don't increase, it'll be hard for the s&p to make anything like the gains we had in 2023 and 2024. >> mag seven is so close to maga seven -- >> yeah, i know. >> every time you say that, i twitch a little bit. and, actually, i'm wondering which of the mag seven -- i
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don't think you can say monolithcally they will all do well under trump, which will continue to be mag seven. >> obviously tesla's big gains have been brought forward by his association with trump. >> that's one. >> if people want to take tesla out of the mag seven because it was doing so poorly and now it's one of the best performing stocks. >> that's right. >> a lot of people had netflix in there. doesn't quite have the market cap but those stocks are selling for 30, 35 times forward earnings, which is -- >> copyrighted, jeremy. the trump trade we've talked so much, you should pick seven of the stocks and call them the maga seven, just begging to be called the maga seven. thank you. thanks, professor. >> thank you very much, joe. >> okay. the eagles might be good. >> they are good. they're 10-2. >> they've won like eight straight. saquon. >> they were losing briefly to
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baltimore but then they came -- >> it's unbelievable. new york teams -- they had saquon barkley. elon musk challenging openai's for-profit shift. the move comes as xai will launch to compete with chatgpt. plus, former kansas city fed president thomas hoenig on jay powell's future. after-tax out. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow, today
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a new report from china shows that growth revenue and profits grew year over year while factories benefited from the threat of trump tariffs. kind of not what you might think. joining us to break it down, china beige book chief operating officer. why? why benefiting? >> i think what you have is a lot of front loading happening. it's at one of the highest levels we've seen. companies are scared and factories are pumping out the product.
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>> the stimulus, what do we know about what china is likely to do and whether it will work? >> the idea big china stimulus is basically completely wrong and what we've got now is they're holding back their fire power. what they want to do is make money available next year to provide support to the economy. i'm really allergic to calling it stimulus still. they want to make sure they can provide stability as a terror threat comes into action. >> interesting. the big move in some of the averages, has that reversed itself, or did david tepper, was that a good call he made? >> i don't think so. there was no reason for this to be a buy everything rally. there was no basis for . you're talking about lifting sentiment, sure. listen to what's going on within china. companies finally going out there and borrowing. i don't think this is going to last necessarily unless, of
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-- course, the party comes out with true stimulus. >> was trump's election china's worst nightmare? it's a strange and complex relationship between countries and the leaders of the countries. i think a strange mutual respect between xi and trump. i don't know if they're like, hey, fellow autocrat, good to see you. we both like trampling on rights. what is that? >> they have dealt with president trump before. i think in terms of policies -- >> what you see is what you get. maybe they like that. there's not as much ambiguity. >> my personal view is they would have preferred a harris presidency. the biden administration has been slow and steady by comparison and i think that's a far easier environment. >> why did, again, legacy media say that china was rooting for
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trump? >> look, who knows what's driving those views but the fact is there's a lot of uncertainty ahead including for for the chinese themselves. some of that fiscal support they want to provide. they don't know what's coming and how bad it will be and they're keeping their options open. >> what could china do for trump to say all right, art of the deal, i'm not going to do these -- the tariffs aren't going to be nearly as significant because china has what, agreed to do what for me? and is there a path to that? >> there conceive play is. the last time around when the phase one deal was done, it was, in many ways, not the best. china made a lot of promises, none of which really came true. it seems like the fentanyl crisis is joining the president's thinking so maybe some big pledges there would help. is there a pathway to a deal? there probably is. i think gaming is out is way too early. the markets are probably much better off as they figure out what the tariff likelihood and
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what that game plan will look like. >> what could china do about fent fentanyl and do you believe conspiracy theories china is maybe looking the other way in the who will owing e we -- who hollowing out? >> it's a law enforcement issue. could countries do more? i am positive they could including china. >> especially a country that knows everything that's happening within its borders and controls so much of society. how has this flourished under the regime? >> the amount of surveillance you see just even on the ground in china has stepped up massively now. it is very hard for policymakers to believe they don't have the capacity -- >> other they don't have to do anything other than turning a blind eye. >> there's no way they can pull
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back on dumping vs over here. you know they're going to do that. >> there's no telling china you have an overcapacity problem you need to solve. it is part and parcel of their economic policy. they've told you they are going to accelerate production off various high-end technologies and if that means dumping the excess production abroad to dominate market share, that is part and parcel of the national strategy. >> he's going to do something about that, trump, is going to do something about that. >> whoever was president, their hand would have been forced. donald trump will have to do something. >> they might have just said, don't. >> that's basically what janet yellen has been saying. don't. you know how well that works. >> it doesn't. >> or a red line. >> is that why it's important to crack down on canada and mexico quickly because of the renegotiation of the new nafta that's coming up? and that's going to be the back door into -- >> part of it. they're trying to come down on the transshipment issue which is
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complicated because we have to think about what our objectives are. do we really want to go after anything that has a china ingredient, if you will, in it. a big, big question to be discussed. >> a lot of stuff -- we'll see you again hopefully, shehzad. thank you for being in studio. when we come back, elon musk is asking a court to block openai from convert to go a for-profit company. we have that story next. later, the sales numbers from black friday and expectations for cyber monday sales today. "squawk box" will be right back. but when he had shortness of breath, carpal tunnel syndrome, and lower back pain, we wondered, could these be warning signs of something bigger? thank goodness we called his cardiologist because these were signs of attr-cm, a rare and serious disease... ...that gets worse over time. if you see any of the warning signs, don't wait,
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a for-profit company. steve kovach is here on that move. >> this lawsuit has been going for months on openai and as he's expecting to launch his own competitor from xai. he asked the court for a preliminary injunction that would block openai from turning into a for-profit company, as many expect it to do next year. also alleges in this new injunction that openai is blocking its current investors from also investing in rival artificial intelligence companies that would, of course, include his own xai. this is part of the ongoing lawsuit musk has had against openai, ceo sam altman, microsoft, and a number of other people in this. the lawsuit, among other things, says it is abandoning its original charter and openai and microsoft has an unfair advantage based on their partnership. microsoft reportedly has that 49% stake in microsoft. of course openai responded in a
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statement saying the musk injunction recycles the same baseless complaints and referred us back to emails released n the spring that showed musk was proposing making it a for-profit company under his control as ceo. officers floated the idea tesla should acquire openai as well. "the wall street journal" was reporting the consumer version of openai. right now you can only access it if you are with x. other musk companies, x subscriptions and spacex using it for customer service. and "the financial times" reported they are getting a 25% stake in xai, of course, after the valuation of x itself has plummeted since musk took over. the latest valuation for xai, $50 billion. that's still just a third of what openai is valued at. >> just to get to the real back
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story on this, i can understand musk's frustration. didn't he give them a billion dollars as a not-for-profit to get them up and running? >> that's his main complaint. he uses the word charity, his lawyers do, rather, so he's salty about that. you can look at the other side, and this is the way openaif is saying, we have emails saying we need to spend more, become a for-profit company. the emails are their smoking gun saying you don't believe the stuff you're saying now. >> maybe his complaint, the idea that, look, it's anti-competitive for you to be telling your investors that they can't invest in other companies, even if that doesn't pick up in the court system, you just wonder with musk's close relationship with incoming president trump if that's something regulators would take a look at. it does seem anti-competitive.
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>> there was a "journal" story saying sam altman is on the sidelines now. >> probably nervous. >> we saw mark zuckerberg a few days ago go to meet with trump and executives taking a more welcoming posture. sam altman appears to be trying to do that according to the report. >> he's probably getting blocked left and right. >> musk considers him enemy number one. this is his biggest competitor and the valuation of xai has surpassed anthropic which came from this openai who wasn't happy with how things started. it's a whole mess right now that he's fighting against. but clearly he sees chatgpt and openai as his biggest competitor. >> something to watch. >> don't forget bluesky is a threat to x, too. >> oh. is this new? you're on bluesky? >> did you get some breaking news? what is it?
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>> pat gelsinger is retiring. an interim executive chair named. david zizner and michelle johnson holthouse named interim co-ceos. >> they're calling this a retirement. >> the media announced his immediate retirement. >> effective yesterday. >> co-ceos -- the ceo of intel products. i don't know what specifically. >> i'm just reading through the release right now. they say this is effective yesterday, december 1. today is december 2nd. >> and this was expected, too, he was setting things up. >> not expected today, though. >> not this early, no. >> take a look at the stock, up by 2.5%, 60 cents. year to date, though, that tells
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the broader story and what's really been happening, down 50% year to date. >> i wonder whether they get more chip money subsidies. get rid of this gelsinger guy. >> this was being turned into a foundry business. the chips act money is part of that. >> the chips act money, they got some of it. now new conditions have been set on this. >> i don't know if it was trading early. now it's tup 4. the word is getting out. >> while we have made significant progress in regaining manufacturing competitiveness and building the capabilities to be a world-class foundry, to your point, steve, we know we have much more work and are committed to restoring investor confidence. this could be a shift looking at it as a foundry to getting back to really looking at the nuts and bolts of what they're doing on this. "as a board, we know first and foremost that we must put our product group at the center of all we do." so this sounds like a big shift
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in terms -- >> let's talk about where they are in product. the pc side, qualcomm is making chips, eating into the market. they're well reviewed. more like the apple chips. by the way, they lost the apple business because they decided they can make their own chips better and more effective and the a.i. front trying to make this story or this case that they can compete with nvidia just not happening. >> ultimately returning, intel, ultimately returning to process leadership is central to product leadership and we will remain phone cussed on that mission while driving greater efficiency. this sounds like a big shift in where this company will be headed. >> intel saying released this info while steve kovach would be on the air. >> that's amazing they would do that. that's so nice of them. >> we're watching "squawk" -- they didn't. people believe anything i say, which is scary. they didn't do that.
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>> fortuitous timing. >> fortuitous does not mean fortunate. >> what does it mean? >> by chance. >> by chance i happened to be here. >> it could be really bad, though. something horrible could happen to you and it would be fortuitous. >> fortunately steve was here. >> serendipitous means how fortuitous is misinterpreted. do you know that -- speaking of jon fortt, that forte is actually fort. if you're good at something, it's a fort. >> stronger, strength. >> what else can i come up with, totally useless? >> the stock up 5.5%. >> it's limitless. >> anybody that's seen this show knows that it's limitless. intel did not say that. >> the co-ceo thing probably not going to last. >> you would think. >> the product thing -- >> super important. we're going to go back. >> what was her name? she's the one taking over that
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intel just moments ago announcing that ceo pat gelsinger retired effective yesterday. jon fortt joins us now on the "squawk" news line. immediately retired, jon. yeah, i was thinking, man, i'm going to immediately retire. that never sounds good, does it? >> well, no, this isn't the way pat gelsinger wanted this to end, joe. good morning. when he came in in early to 2021, the goal was to restore intel to its former greatness, and, you know, he gave the board a plan. he had initially planned to join the board.
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they asked him if he would be the ceo. he gave them a plan for what he would want to do. it was an all-in plan, and they agreed to it and now we have intel that spent -- committed to spending tens of billions of dollars to build up a manufacturing operation at the time when its core business of pc and server chips was challenged like never before by the rise of a.i., primarily nvidia. that's what got us to this point, they've been spending this money trying to rebuild manufacturing at the time the core business has been challenged. >> okay. interim co-. i mean, is there going to be a search for -- you mentioned just nvidia. i even think of -- remember, watching over the years the decade amd versus intel, in the
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old days, jon, i would have never believed amd would eclipse intel to such an extent. who do they need at this point and what is the right strategy and does it involve the chips act subsidies to move forward? what's the right strategy for intel and who is the right person? >> i think intel is locked into the manufacturing strategy, but what i've said, it's tragic in this sense, is that most of pat gelsinger's thesis for the intel strategy he laid out has been borne out. he argued before openai happened and the explosion in nvidia's stock price and the demand for chips, there was a real need for domestic semiconductor production because of the instability globally in taiwan and china's designs over there, the fact we have let u.s. manufacturing of all kinds of
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things but particularly semiconductors fall so far behind, and people question, well, is it really demand for high-end chips anymore? do we need that domestically? now with the rise of a.i., it's as clear as it's ever been. yes, the .s. needs a dedicated supply china for these higher end chips and that's what intel is in the rocess of building out. but it's doing so from a cash constraint position because that core chip business that used to throw so much cash is under threat. they have to look for somebody, and i think the big question for the board is to what degree are they going to stay committed to this capital intensive manufacturing plan particularly being a foundry for other companies. there's the need for it but there are a lot of cash demands on it. so who do they partner with for that cash? how do they engineer that part to make sure that that can go
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forward? they have deals with the likes of aws, amazon, talking to qualcomm and some others. there were some rumbling that qualcomm was interested in taking on intel, perhaps doing some sort of a takeover. there were headlines that interest had waned. a lot of questions structurally about what intel does to finance this chips manufacturing need that the west has but particularly the u.s. has. >> all right. thanks, jon. it's what makes the news business interesting. that's why it's called news, i guess. let's turn now to the debate over the fed independence and how incoming president donald trump may try to influence fed policy in a second term. former kansas city fed president thomas hoenig joins us. he wrote about this topic in an op-ed in "the wall street journal." he's a distinguished senior
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fellow at george mason. you laid out in your op-ed you don't think donald trump is going to try and fire jay powell or end his term early. what do you think? >> well, i think the situation is such that jay powell and the federal market committee is on an easing move right now. why would you fool with that as long as they're not raising rates? i would first -- and i would point out to you, becky, that presidents getting involved in the monetary policy is not news, as i pointed out in my remarks in my op-ed, that starting with -- well, at least from harry truman, johnson, nixon, all had a lot of influence on the fed's chairman and the fomc at a time they wanted interest rates not to be increased. this is not going to change with trump at all.
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the other thing, remember, you have really a committee that has full discretion over monetary policy. one of the most important things, money and interest rates, are controlled at the discretion of the policy body. that means it is going to be subject to political pressure regardless of who is president. so that will be the case with trump, and should they find themselves in a situation they need to raise interest rates, trump will put a lot of pressure on them not to do so given his other plans going forward. so i don't think it's going to happen, and if it does, if he starts putting pressure on, powell in may of 2026 will be gone and looking who he puts in trump's place will be his priority, i suspect. >> trump has said that he doesn't really like high rates. he's not going to want high interest rates but also wants a stock market that gives him a
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really good great grade about how his administration is doing. that's important to him. those seem like conflicting potential ideas if you get into a situation where the deficit is rising, some of these issues come down. if you were a betting man, how would you bet? which one of these priorities is going to rise to the top if it turns out that they are in direct conflict? >> well, i suspect the lower interest rates will because it's been the experience for the last 20 years, the low interest rates move asset values up. we see it right now. we see it in the stock market. it's much higher than anyone would have suspected. and so that's kind of what you look for with low interest rates. now, having said that, if we do get a situation where -- with government being the way it is, the deficit growing like crazy and the fed is pressured to keep rates low and pressured to print money or buy that bond, inflation takes off and you will
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get a lot of upward pressure on interest rates regardless. however, that's probably more than six months, probably more than a year away, and that's still enough time for powell to work his way through this and trump to say who will replace powell in 2026. >> bottom line, you're not super concerned at this point? >> pardon? >> you're not super concerned at this point? there are things you're watching, but there are not things you're concerned about at this point? >> the pressure is on the fed because they're already in the mold. a year from now, i will be a lot more concerned. then i think we will have deficit problems, potentially inflation problems, so that's when you begin to worry about the relationship between the fed and the president. >> and the questions that will be asked if people potentially stepping in to take over the federal reserve at that point.
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tom, thank you. we appreciate your time today. tom hoenig. >> thank you for having me. >> it's a brave new world. someone tweeted, you need to keep up with x. the pat gelsinger news was posted yesterday on x, becky. so i used perplexity to ask, was the intel elsinger posted yesterday, yes, the news about intel ceo's retirement was shared on x yesterday. so i'm using two things. i'm using x and perplexity. >> the market didn't know that because the stock -- >> it's amazing. it's amazing. >> i would like to see where that was posted. >> i know. i'm hanging it on perplexity. don't blame me. >> i don't know if i believe that because the market took off based on this. >> nobody knew. this person says it was posted
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and a.i. says it was there. >> it did say -- the press release says effective december 1st. that was yesterday. >> things do happen quickly. media is changing whether you like it or n.ot coming up, the holiday sales rush is on. up next, we'll dig into the numbers from black friday and the prospects for sales on this cyber monday. to better solutio. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
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black friday shoppers spent nearly $11 million online, up 10% from a year ago, according to adobe. cyber monday shopping is under way, as we speak. let's bring in our next guest to talk about some of the key trends. five new digital founder and author of "the new retail," the nrf, named michael in its list
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of influence voices impacting retail in 2025. if you were to write three headlines, what would it be this year, michael? >> healthy exuberance, healthy spending and a bright outlook going into the holidays. >> is that different than irrational exuberance? >> it is different. it's justified. it is expecting things to be better that be they are, or something bubblish. people are feeling good about their wallets. they've seen employment is steady, inflation is coming down and people are ready to spend on themselves and friends and relatives this holiday season. >> how many times have we heard about the demise of the consumer this time around? and it's been greatly exaggerated, every single time. the headline i've been dealing with for over a decade is it's the retail apocalypse, and i've maintained the last decade and certainly the last four years
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that we're experiencing a retail renaissance. there are more places to buy more things in more ways than anytime in human history, and the numbers back it up, and so we have traditional channels like physical formats that have changed and become more immersive. not only from marketplaces like amazon and websites, people are buying through live streaming, buying through cross border. if we look at tiktok and shein and temu have done, tate it's a great time to be in the industry. >> if you only cared about deals, and i saw some videos, which we look forward to every year -- i guess we shouldn't. people waiting outside the doors and the mob scene and the fights and everything else that goes on. with so much being online now, can you find all the deals online? do you not have to get involved with that? >> not necessarily. a lot of the great deals are online. if we look at who has done
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really well over the season so far, walmart's come out a clear winner in all of this, and people are spending in their physical stores, spending on walmart.com. also, if you look at the off price retailers, they generally don't sell online or it would, three, percentage points or five, but people are going into places like tjmaxx and ross and burlington and digging in the piles and enjoying that treasure hunt. we're seeing it inside the physical formats as well as the e-commerce but e-commerce has grown fantastically. >> can you point to what target did wrong? >> i think target has fallen back a bit. target was actually ahead of walmart, integrated online and supply chain for the new retail
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format, so i think they fell away from that, they stopped investing at the same time walmart went all in. walmart has a marketplace. they're on roblox, have their own virtual world called realm, do online, offline integration. >> to be fair to walmart, they've done that for quite a while in building up an online advertising business. >> that's it. they've built that perfect new retail ecosystem. the other thing walmart has going for it, less focused on discretionary and target more focused on discretionary. when i look at target's leadsh aeripnd underlying numbers, i think they're going to have a strong 2025. i think we're going to see them come back. >> very good. thank you, michael. it says right here "squawk box" will be right back.
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all right. welcome back to "squawk box." we want to recap the breaking news this hour. intel saying its sarajevo pat gelsinger retired effective yesterday. we just got this news this hour to hear about this. that stock is up by about 4% as a result. the company named david zinsner and michelle johnston holthaus as the interim co-ceos.
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the stock is up on the news. the company also saying they have to restore investor confidence. they will focus on the product group putting that at the center of what they do. joe? >> a final check on the markets, a little bit of time left. we have the futures flat for most of the premarket session. you can see right now we are up 21 points now. the nasdaq upticking a little and now we have the s&p up about three points higher. we'll be back tomorrow. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. coming off the best month of the year so far, a lot of news in autos, semis, media, tech and, of course, retail. our road map will begin with the shake-up a
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