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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 3, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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jugs of mcrib sauce, that is what i took away from that that's incredible. >> what does rfk jr. mean for the mcrib? >> we're going to find out. >> i guess we are. i mean, does it come back? >> he likes a mcdonald's meal from time to time, too, if x pictures are in live from the nasdaq, right in the heart of new york city's times square, this is fast money. here is what is on tap. time to buy china. from thrift threats to trade restrictions, there seem to be plenty of reasons to tread lightly but the chart master says to buy. plus, betting on it coin. the micro strategies ceo expanding exposure to the crypto in a big way. what it says about where the coin is heating and how soon it could hit 100 k. the ceo of biotech altomut, how is experimental weight loss
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drug stacks up against the petition. coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq, the founder of moses ventures, anyone is. beijing retaliating against the latest export restrictions by announcing it will no longer send critical minerals to the u.s. cnbc's megan cassell has the details. a ratcheting up of trade tensions to ban the sales of these rare minerals to the u.s., effective immediately. this was a response to the biden administration's move to restrict the export of chips and chipmaking equipment and software to china to slow beijing's development of advanced weaponry and ai systems used by the military. beijing rejected the u.s. justification of that move, saying "washington has generalized the concept of national security in recent years and abused export control measures." their response represents a significant step in above
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tensions, not entirely unexpected as they did begin laying the groundwork to make this move possible. could only be a first step given the additional terrorist donald trump is vowing to impose when he takes office. the critical minerals targeted, broad military uses. they are used to make weapons but also in a number of consumer goods, phones, computers, cars, all industries, melissa, that could feel an impact as a trade war between u.s. and china starts to heat up, melissa. >> megan cassella, thank you. megan cassella. it is of note that these metals have not been shipped to the united states for a couple years, which either indicates companies have moved away or have built up stockpiles. either way, tensions are getting worse. >> we talked about this last night. for the most part, for our investors, the question is what is the impact for u.s. companies? when you talk about u.s. mining, they are not on the ground in china. there's no question that probably for the last 20 years,
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we have done it here, the dealer where the hinese were coming into buying. this goes all the way back in time. i wouldn't be that scared off by these headlines. the last couple of ministrations, going back to the first one, we are thinking about how do we secure rare earth minerals? it would lead to some squeezes. i think the more important dynamic is what we were talking about yesterday. she reinforced the story that the chinese are less concerned about external interpretations, or at least, more importantly, policy as it affects the economy when they care a lot more about policy, what that means for securing power for the communist party, for social control, and that is potentially risky for u.s. companies. >> they are playing the long game. they don't care what the year term impacts are. >> we also mentioned that the yuan is at the lowest level in
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a year. it is startling how quickly it has deteriorated to be to go back to august 11th 2015, when they actually announced that the evaluation of the yuan. by february of the next year, equity markets felt it, too tim's point. no one is paying attention to this. j.p. morgan had a note on it. to your point, tim's point, it is not so much what this means because maybe it is not a big deal, it is the ratcheting up of the rhetoric that is important. >> prior to the election and post, there's been stimulus in china. they are trying to spur on demand. we know there will be issues with terrorist with trump. i have a question for guy adami. on the periodic table, germanium, any idea what the numbers are? >> 128 and 131. >> it is not important in the u.s. but it is just rhetoric. i know we are going to talk about what you should do with the china trade in general. >> a lot of u.s. investors, too
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tim's point, have a hard time figuring out where this lies. when you think about a whole host of other u.s. brands, this is what i want to focus on. if you think about china's demand for u.s. brands, they are going down. make no mistake about it, the iphone only grew by half a percent in q3 last year in china. >> they lost five points. >> ibc is tracking this and entry funds grew 6% year-over- year. iphones are not growing. if there is some nationalistic tendencies toward some of this stuff, that is a bigger problem for u.s. monthly nationals. >> we talked about soft boycotts, the informal boycotts. people voicing their unhappiness with u.s. brands. already u.s. brands are having difficulty and you want to layer this on top of it? >> i think it is a problem. i have to be honest, i thought this was going to be a problem two years ago. when the rhetoric around i started getting ratcheted up and nothing has really happened. it hasn't gotten better. in some ways, it has gotten worse. the broader markets have not
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cared one iota but there are things out there that i think we should be paying attention to. you wonder what companies are in the crosshairs. apple is the biggest one, without question. nike has its own issues without question. nike is a stock that is more than half of what was three years ago. that is a big china play. >> there is a starbucks, there's mcdonald's. there's nike. >> i think that that is a story. also investors are thinking about as we get to the end of the year, this is the time to start training for 2025, what is going to be different. i think we would have all set in 24, danny said we are worried about geopolitics. geopolitics, i would say this is one of the most spectacular years and spectacular i don't necessarily mean that in a positive way in 24 and yet geopolitics didn't do anything. markets, we know what they have done. it's a question of u.s. exceptionalism. is this the place you will continue to seek to invest?
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right now, you have a no confidence vote in france, you have problems around the world, dynamics that are going to put even more pressure but i get back to the 2015 devaluation, what you are hearing from companies is we are not going to be afraid to let our currencies float. the ultimate elixir is to let the currency go. that is going to be very good for americans traveling around the world, it would be good for american buying power. it is possibly going to be something that i think we have to worry about multinationals. >> it is something donald trump has spoken out against in the past in terms of a strong dollar. a weak dollar is very helpful. >> u.s. multinationals play a key role in the economy in china whether they like it or not and they can ill afford to go into this type of back-and- forth without applications. they start kicking u.s. companies out, if that were to happen, that is going to make it worse. >> tim used the term american exceptionalism. pull up the chart of apple. it has rallied 10% from the low in november. iphones aren't growing. this is a product that is more than 50% of their sales. when you think about the money that is coming out of these other places, it is clearly coming here into the u.s. apple
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traded 33 times, i don't know if it has traded at this sort of growth. we are talking central single- digit growth. in june, when the stock was massively performing the broad market, i think it was up less than 10% versus an s&p that was up 15 or 16% or so. all the analysts could talk about was this massive upgrade cycle coming this fall. it is gone. it is not. apple intelligence is a zero. seriously. >> i agree the refresh is slow to happen, it's going to happen. going to happen anyway largely. what the analysts are also saying is we are in the broadening of the ai trade and the ai trade, which is now into software, i think apple is perfectly positioned, whether it is apple intelligence or not. they are the use case. there certainly will be to follow through. that is part of what the market is rewarding and i don't think the market that moved from 185 to break through the two-year resistance, i don't think that was on a refresh.
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>> what if i said to you, though, that apple would not have an ai product at all in china because all china has to do is say you will not have a partner for ai because apple needs that local chinese partner for ai. if there is no ai, what drives the upgrade cycle in china? nothing. >> the whole story in china is bob pisani and they are working on their unkept abilities that will be on the edge. we have no reason to believe their phones won't be much better. >> i am not doubting that. i am just saying, if they are counting on some sort of upgrade cycle, help from china, it may not come in the chinese government decides no ai partner. >> happen to be stared china risks for apple in the face for a year? i don't want to belittle the impact and if there was a headline tomorrow, we know what apple would do. i think we all recognize for china there is an indian where smartphone penetration is 3.3%,
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where the market share is. there's a lot of other markets for them to grow. the 3 billion install base, if you remove china, it would be a big impact but i don't think it stops. >> we could go 10 minutes without talking about gold. it was announced china stopped purchasing gold in april of this year. the market took it as okay, they are done. maybe that is the end. now goldman sachs put out a note that maybe they have been buying gold in the over-the- counter market that is opaque and they have another 60 tons of gold that might have been purchased. you tie this up in a bow, china, all this rhetoric of the yuan going down. all roads lead to gold. >> gold is one of my favorite investment right now. it has held up in the face of the dollar. the dollar has come in the last few days. with all of the geopolitical stuff going on around the world, it is a place to be and feels like it is about to take off. >> meeting, the chart master put out a note, saying it is time to buy china stocks. back in october, he was a seller of china mega caps, let's bring him in for the latest technicals on this trade. kurt, what are you looking at?
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>> it has been a bit hysterical. in october, you had record inflows and we are just having reports that november has seen record outflows. often it is right to take the road less traveled. that was the thought in october, stately hysteria. we have the equal and opposite circumstance of people abandoning just as aggressively as they were embracing it. let's look at the charts. what thinking is to sell off. here is a five-year weekly chart, no drawings, no annotations, no judgment. next chart has some of those and what we know is we have that optically clear double bottom. you have the euphoria, that expert there in september and october. at that point, trading far above the 150 moving average anytime on record. now, this big giveback. i think that is a flag, if you will, the replacement to buy. let's look at a stock or two. the biggest or most important is ali baba. you have a great circumstance, a selloff to the penny.
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look at tencent. you have a similar circumstance. different shape, character, but same circumstance. a big september and october move it this give back to the level from which it programmed and to the penny. i am a buyer of both of those and i am a buyer of yuan. >> carter paxton with a fourth charting. thank you. are you a buyer to my question >> i wasn't born with a crystal ball but i wish i over the next couple of weeks, joe kernen is going to ask about the china trade and he's going to say i'm still in it, i still believe in it, despite the fact that it has round trip to the entire thing. tim seymour said here a month and a half ago when ali baba was 117. i'm low on the stock but i am selling calls against it. that was prescient because it is round trip as well. we have filled in all the gaps created to the upside.
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that trade is not over. i agree with carter. >> the things that worried me most were not related to the bottom-up story. they are not related to china macro. it is probably, to the extent china macro could be corporate governance dynamics, i don't know what they are going to do to ali baba. they have kissed the ring and been through that who is your daddy. the story of a company with 45% of the market cap is the story of a company i think continues to talk about a spin off of assets. this is some of the parts, earnings multiple. that can lead, which is the collection of the largest chinese internet names, if you don't want to play just one thing and diversify, that is still up 21% from the low in september. even after this move, guy is right and it is nice he pats me on the back for selling upside calls. i am still in alibaba. collecting some premium is great. i believe in the long term trade. there's a lot of people patting themselves on the back and they are right, which is what carter said. a lot of people said feed this
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move, it's not big enough. i think they are waiting for trump to take office before they really unleashed. why would you do it now, why would you bring up some of your biggest stimulus when you don't know what exactly going to? >> the big zebra, alibaba. >> it has been a great trade but this goes back to what you were saying about the other parts of the world. the valuations are so low, where are you going to get alpha in this market, are you going to continue to buy into what might be perceived as a valuation bubble in the u.s. or are you going to look at fxi? i am just looking at eem, tencent, samsung, alibaba, that is good exposure that some underperform, something that i should be up the way it is. eem looks interesting to me. >> it is not just a, it is europe a lot of these markets have been left for dead, so to speak. u.s. fields a little over right now and people aren't paying attention to the global markets in general. >> let's talk tesla.
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shares down a percent and a half after new data showed deliveries from its shanghai factory felt for the second month in a row. our guest trader tonight, danny moses, who has been short tesla various times in 2015 isn't betting against it. for the viewer, you are constantly trading. keep us updated on what you are. >> i got into the trade after the solar city deal was done in late 2016 to 2017 thinking it was an awful deal, i'm going to get into the stock short. off and on for the last few years. the first order this year, who was the ceo of solar city at the time? his cousin. he won that court case also. fast forward to the first quarter this year. it had just started to trade on fundamentals for the first time in a long time. it was hanging around 140, $150.00. the quarter was bad. what happened? promise of it on a mistake in august, flies to china to get some regulatory relief on certain things. low and behold, attaches himself to trump to make all the other stuff go away. when the story moves from nonfundamental to technical, that is when i believe the story. we talk about it on the podcast a lot, giving updates there. two people listening now, it is
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very difficult certainly to short a name that is not trading on fundamentals. it is hard to go long a name when it is on premises. i will say this about elon musk, he has promised shareholders things in the past that nev came to fruition and was given the benefit of the doubt. he is talking about cutting $2 trillion from the u.s. budget, being able to improve the budget. you are not going to be able to do that. it is one thing to mess with shareholders, it is another to mess with an american citizen. we will see. it feels like it is moving from the corporate world. had to go there a little bit. >> the question is does elon musk want to take away a lot of the safety net services of people who can't afford tesla's? this is an uncharted territory where you are right now. it is one thing to take the ceo of hubbert and put them in that seat and it is a transparent sort of thing. what is going on with the doge, it's not going to be particularly transparent. >> it goes back to trade. you think about who this alienates in terms of tesla
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buyers. for everybody who loves where elon musk stands, there's probably something else or doesn't on the opposite side. >> that might be true for a coca-cola, where you talk about brands that have alienated. i'm not certain that holds water in terms of tesla and their base. maybe i am 100% run. i don't know if it is about auto sales anymore. i get what you are saying but i don't think that was the needle. >> other than this comp package that happened yesterday, the only court case elon musk ever lost what he was forced by x, what happened when he bought twitter? on the good things because he uses as a platform to get whatever he wanted. every investigation that might have been going on is gone. to dan's point, you should be concerned as a u.s. consumer if you get approved for fst when it is supervisory, it is a danger. that is not a tesla comment, that is just in general. that is the stuff i am watching for. >> we know there are industries
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in the auto sector, the irony here is that the three, maybe the big two now don't necessarily love what should be support of detroit. removing, i know it sounds crazy, removing ev subsidies and making it more excessive to build an ev car is not good news for gm, who is not given any credit for their internal combustion business. gm's shareholders, this is sentiment that will work its way through. look at the steel sector, there's all these conversations about what, keep it in america, built in america, no foreign partners for america. not great, only spirit >> really quickly. they also want to cut the cfpb. we are talking about autos, talking about the sort of thing. there's a lot of implications if you cut that. that is meant to protect consumers from financial fraud, or whatever. >> executive watching salesforce after hours shares on the move after the latest report. the details and numbers and
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what the ceo had to say. from sale forced to sell your shares of at&t getting a boost on the back of its investor day. how they put their cash to work and the earnings guidance sending the stock to multiyear highs. don't go anywhere. vast money is back in two. >> this is fast money with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.
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while salesforce is running its whole company on patient force, our company, many aspects of our businesses are on agent force. i would challenge you to go to the microsoft website, talk to any of their employees, see how they are using it all. i don't think they can even use copilot inside microsoft. this is an opportunity for all customers to go to another level using this incredible ability. >> that was salesforce ceo marc benioff talking to jim cramer about his companies a i push. shares of the cloud company jumping up almost 7% despite a mixed quarter. a conference call is underway. >> melissa, enthusiasm around
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salesforce ai offerings seems to be paying off with the company lifting the fourth quarter sales and earnings guidance. ceo marc benioff saying the real excitement is around the rise of digital labor. for many years, the company help customers manage data and analytics but now the company has created a new market that is so much bigger than data management, the market for digital labor with the rise of ai agents to help customers compute complex data models to serve their end-user. he made the point these ai agents will only enhance human capabilities. a strong reaction to earnings and even before the results came out, a 375 rating, piper sandler of its targets. keep in mind, since force is not that the only software cloud company leading to ai agents, service now, oracle among others. it is feeling the software trade with software stocks and effort outperforming stocks since the u.s. election, melissa. >> seema moody with the details on crm. is this the handoff we have been looking for? the sort of reminds me of meta
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in that they are reating an ai, they have an ai product but they are using it internally to improve their own metrics. >> the promise of ai is to take out customer management. this is what this company does. we were talking about the valuation in apple relative to its growth. this company is expected to grow earnings and sales 10%, traits at a similar multiple to apple at 30 times. you could say that is probably really conservative, those gross estimates if they deliver on the things marc benioff was talking about. this is interesting but it is trading at all-time highs of $20 results in the aftermarket. >> it feels safe. the second straight quarter we are free cash flow growth is underpinning part of this. the question is 8% year-over year growth. seed programs at 10, which is where you want to see more growth. it gets back to the multiple here. i do think, and we've had this conversation in the last month, i think software is how you are seeing the delivery of ai. it is companies themselves that are getting leaner and meaner,
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which is one of the things in terms of what ai means for the industrial complex. i do think you can almost look at what is going on in hardware versus software. >> investors looking for growth, places to go that don't require a lot of capitol. they are a beneficiary of other names. >> it was great on without question. i'm not a hater. they missed on eps, they become revenue slightly. the one thing people are looking at our margins were better. the guide was not good. it trades at 35 times next year's numbers. good for them telling a great story but this got extensive on the back of this. >> we have news on amazon black friday bowl game. julia has details on that. >> the second black friday can deliver 13.5 million viewers, and average audience increase of 41% over last seasons an honorable black friday game. this marks the second largest viewership gain of the season for the nfl, 42% for the
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november 7th ravens game, which shows ongoing awareness of the nfl in its third year with regular-season games on amazon. it also comes after thanksgiving day games have the highest viewership on record, up 6% from last year. the nfl continuing to deliver, melissa, for amazon as well. >> any indication as to how much shopping was done during that game? >> we don't have that data just to get but, what we know from last year is that when people were watching the game on amazon, they were also engaging with ads. this year, we interviewed amazons j mary about the ways they were offering interactivity, making the as shovelable, both with qr codes and with the ability to shop with their remote. can but they were finding lots of ways to take that viewership and make sure they were spending money on amazon. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. zero chance i was buying anything online, let alone streaming. >> with his remote.
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>> that was 10 years ago. >> i swear, you can buy things with your remote control. the thing you point at the screen and you can buy and that is the world we want to live in? >> you have a tube tv, guy. >> the cable box. >> you remember that. with the court. it is no surprise that thanksgiving football was in records because people don't want to talk with each other anymore in this politically diverse landscape you find yourself in. one. amazon is a stock collectively we liked. outside that one little misstep they had for a six month stretch, it has been an amazing stock. stay with it. >> there's a lot more faster money to come. here is what is coming up next. >> at&t looking like a wireless winner. shares surging on the back of the company's investor day. the cutting edge tech they are doubling down on, next. plus, best money obesity
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week continues with the ceo of one biotech company hoping to slim down the competition in the weight loss truck space. their latest resul atsnd key data that may set them apart. you are watching best money, live from the nasdaq market side in times square. we are back right after this. is a bitcoin etf the same as owning bitcoin directly? while bitcoin etfs might offer a familiar face, they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira. real bitcoin means no middleman, no restricted stock market hours. choose the path of direct bitcoin investment
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welcome back to fast money. at&t shares hitting their highest level since 2021 the debuted the company and filling a three-year plan to return more than $40 billion to investors through dividends and share buybacks. the ceo telling squawk on the street that ai demand is driving the company to double its fiber optics business. he said there's also, well, let's listen. >> if you think about ai in particular, just think about how sensor technology, the number of cameras that are now out in somebody's life, around their home, in their car, and a store. all that video needed to be shipped up to the network in order to be analyzed using ai algorithms, that alone is going to drive an incredible amount of upstream bandwidth and demand on the network and that is why we think these
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investments are appropriate to make right now and puts us in a unique position. >> at&t also saying that today's investor day it expects to free cash flow to hit $18 billion in 2027. a lot of capitol to be returned but also enough to invest further in its fiber optic network to satisfy this demand appeared >> their investment is what got them in trouble in the first place. with that said, the move from $13 and cents has been unbelievable. tim has talked about this as well. if you put up a nine, 10 year chart, we are at a downtrend level. this is a huge level to break through. i'm not sure it is going to get there but the flipside is t- mobile can do everything right and it is within a dollar or so if it's all-time high. it is still the t-mobile world to live in. >> t-mobile has been the plato have, even after this year. but, say this about at&t and say that's also about the mercenary or the predatory nature of the competitive landscape and what do you call it, a . not an oligopoly. >> i don't know. >> i'm going to go . you can
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correct us. the point is that they now, there are three companies . i'm not saying they are calling but they can slowly raise prices and they are sticky and they are holding it. at&t, you don't have an investor day unless you have good news. 40 billion they are going to give back in terms of defense and cash buybacks. >> two legacy companies have reinvented themselves. disney and at&t. at&t selling off the bad assets, focusing on growth areas, disney doing the same exact thing. two areas, two names i think are getting bought by investors. obesity opportunity. how this experimental drug could have an experimental entry while also treating the disease. the ceo will join us as fast money obesity week continues. that is right after this.
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welcome back to fast money. the s&p 500 and back closing fresh records while the dow jones lost six points. shares of united airlines taking a beating from the recent rally. shares lower today but still up more than 132% n 2024.
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ceo scott kirby telling us this morning the company expects to post its best december revenue on record. shares of u.s. steel down 8%. president-elect donald trump's reiterating his opposition to the $15 billion takeover bid by japan's nippon steel. trump posting he does not want the american resource company to be owned by a foreign company and that he will block the deal when he takes office. u.s. steel down 23% this year. fedex and ups delivered the debuted analyst at bernstein downgrading fedex, lowering the price target to 316 from 337. the firm citing execution, events, and policy risk and a few mega cap tech names hitting record highs. apple and meta trading at those levels. altimmune bucking the biotech selloff, sterling over 30%. the company given up to put its experimental obesity drug to the test in the phase three trial, also said to give more data on how it can treat liver disease in early 2025. we are joined by altimmune ceo vipin garg. great to have you with us. that drug, if i can say it, if
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you give us an overview, it is now entering phase three and it will be 5000 subjects across four different sorts of trials that will explore different attributes of the drug. can you give us a status report on where that stands now? >> absolutely. 325 is a dual agonist of combines glp-1 with glucagon. in addition to appetite suppression , glucagon is increasing energy expenditure. as a result, we are able to get a better lipid profile in these patients. the whole obesity market as it evolves, it is going to be more about not just about weight loss but what else do you bring
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to the table? what are the comorbidities of obesity you are able to treat? that is where pemvidutide shines . because of the glucagon component in the drug, it is having direct in the liver. it is de-fatting the liver. the lipids are improving and the blood pressure. all are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. people don't die of obesity, it is the cardiovascular disease that has to be treated in order to improve outcomes in these patients. the way we have designed our trials in our phase three program really reflect those benefits of pemvidutide. these trails are specifically designed to take advantage of the glucagon components of the drug. >> can we also talk about preserving lean muscle mass? that is a major complaint, particularly in older people who might be more susceptible to losing lean muscle mass. it is more of a problem if your bones are weakening. in phase two, you had interesting results. 50 patients were in phase two
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but 21.9% of the weight loss was attributed to lean muscle mass. that compares to lean muscle mass a loss of up to 40% in wegovy at the end of 68 weeks. can you talk to us about how that compares, pemvidutide compares to the other drugs out there that are trying to not make you lose lean muscle mass? the maya statin inhibitors, how are they different? >> people are talking about combining different therapies. what we are doing, by adding glucagon, we are getting the benefit because what glucagon is doing, it is increasing energy expenditure and turning the metabolism to fat burning rather than protein or carbohydrate burning. as a result, we are losing more fat mass as opposed to losing protein and carbohydrates. that has a knock on effect. the benefit is we are seeing class leading lean mass
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preservation. this is really important in people over 60 years of age and postmenopausal women as well as in people with stark opinion, a large number of patients will benefit from a drug like this and really we don't need to combine two drinks to get the same effect. with the same drug, we can get preservation of lean muscle mass. >> in your earnings call, somebody in management said you will need a commercial order to commercialize the drug. wondering how you think about that road map and what that partnership could look like for you. >> our strategy is to secure a partnership around obesity. as far as máaásáh and other indications are concerned, we are moving full speed ahead with those. those discussions, those developments are moving forward. ultimately, in order to commercialize in a large obesity space, we are going to need a partner and we are seeking that. >> are you, will you be independent in this partnership? does this partnership include the possibility of being
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bought? >> there are many different ways these partnerships can be structured. it is hard to define that ahead of time. depending on how the partnership comes together, our goal is to find a partner that can bring full value to the asset. both obesity, máaásáh, and other indications. if it is just obesity, it would be a partnership. the whole molecule, it could be a different kind of structure. >> vipin garg of altimmune, thank you. you can catch more special obesity week coverage right here at fast money all week, starting at 5 p.m. eastern time each day on cnbc. what is the trade? >> it is interesting. i know steve grasso talks about this. they are a $650 million company. they have a quarter of that in cash or cash equivalents. that suggests they have some runway here. they probably burn $20 million a quarter or so. you ask the question, will they be able to go this alone. the suggestion is that they are open to a partnership.
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>> i thought the suggestion was if he was open to everything. >> or that. >> which is interesting. >> what has been interesting for me is to watch the lilly bivens. lily has bounced quite nicely in the last week or so and where expeditions go back to more of a reality, a lot of people traded out of this, i know it is still a crowded trade. the lily over amgen move, i would reverse that. i think amgen was overdone. >> we got a news alert on president-elect trump's pick to lead the dea. check on after pulling himself out of the running, saying "been chosen to be the administration enforcement administration is the honor of a lifetime," but says there is more work to be done for hillsborough county, florida and initiatives he is committed to fulfilling. this as trump's defense secretary pick pete hegseth under scrutiny. coming up, blackrock making a that on the credit market and what it could mean for investors. talk about a big pet. micro strategy digging his heels into the crypto stands
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and scooping up more going. all that when fast money returns.
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welcome back too fast money. blackrock pushing deeper into the private credit room, buying hbs and restaurant partners $4 billion in stock. leslie pick her joins us with the details. >> the combination creates a private credit behemoth with $220 million in client assets, which would make blackrock the fifth largest manager of the asset class, according to which book. blackrock said it expects the private credit market to more than double to $4.5 trillion by 2030. that case is driven by the notion that market forces in technology and regulation are all pushing activity toward private credit, which some see as a more efficient way of doing business then syndicated lending conducted through banks. blackrock is not alone in this thinking. state street told the financial times it is looking for minorities takes to fortify its private credit offerings. such tieups have become increasingly common as well at asset managers, insurers, even
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large banks. skeptics are plentiful. some say the person private credit popular the is indicative of a bubble. others say this newfound that load will lead to a reckoning and the next major downturn. in the meantime, publicly traded private credit firms like will and ares see big returns year-to-date, outperforming blackrock, which did gain on today's announcement of about 2%, melissa. >> leslie, thank you. we've got a skeptic right here on the desk and in fact. >> i'm not a skeptic, i think it is great to raise money and put to use. i can think back to 2004 and 2005 during subprime. what happened was there is a normal credit cycles that occur. subprime mortgages defaulted on the go to liquid. the 228 mortgages, 327, ninja loans, all may seem like this time is different. what happened was everyone both
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in and insurance companies, pension companies, we can get a nice yield, little credit risk. private credit is not up to trillion. it is not being monitored because you can't at the fed, treasury kate hussey because it has gone off the banks. there is nothing with what they are doing. all i am saying is you see these payment kind for interest, modifications occurring at some point it will catch up and the performance of these loans will start to diminish. all i am saying is people should be aware. it is having an effect on credit spreads across the entire market. people just need to be aware. great acquisition, it's going to look great. you won't know for years and this is a bad decision or not, just something i am watching. >> if you look at where high yield spreads are, you are basically, as tight as you have been since right before the market of the great financial crisis started to unwind. what danny is saying is important. if you think about the subprime and danny was as close to it as anybody, the government and the regulators were pushing people into it. they were pushing the players. there was a time when this once in their best interest. in the same way that essentially regulators are fine
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with private credit, have been pushing them there. a lot of the banks haven't wanted to go there. it has been a good thing. you do have to be careful. we talk about those risks we came into 2024. certainly in 2023, we thought as long as higher for her. at some point, this was going to have a big impact on private credit markets and it hasn't. so, great. they are just bigger now. >> commercial mortgage-backed securities, also as cnbs. always a good acronym. 10.4% dylan quincy rate, the highest we have seen in 11 years. another thing nobody is talking about. it is not that it has been creeping up, it has been moving up exponentially over the last few months. >> coming up, mio sttecrragy digging deeper into the crypto trade. why there is a lot more upside for bitcoin and when we can expect it to cross the 100,000 mark. we will debate that when fast money returns.
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connect to the world of wicked this holiday, in theaters now. welcome back too fast money. a strategy buying another $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin over the past week. the software company turned bitcoin holder has over 500,000 points on its balance sheet worth almost $40 billion. what do we make of this? >> i've never seen anyone committed to something.
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take the biggest religious zealot. i have to give the guy credit. i wonder if he would like to see bitcoin come in. he owns it at 58,000. he's got a big paper gain right there but he wants to keep fighting. when you think about how much is locked up, he is single handedly pushing it from a sentiment standpoint. >> showing a $3 billion conference with 0% interest, you take that all day long. i would question why you wouldn't just buy one of the etf's that is priced versus biting something 2.5 times, pretty much biting bitcoin unleveraged. more power to him. not a way that i would express. >> wait until the options market comes in bitcoin. but that is going to mean for the ability to see capitol eviscerated. in the meantime, it leaves micro strategy as leverage play. >> when you say leverage play, it is a five times leverage play. if you open up a bitcoin chart
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from september and micro strategy, bitcoin is probably up 40%, micro strategies went from $100 or cents a two 550 and has pulled back. every 5% in coin is a five times and micro strategy. if you want to play that game, that is the deep end of the pole. >> that spread is coming in. it has a 6 billion cap, $40 billion in holdings. >> i would say you have the two times levered micro strategy, single name, pointed out in the wall street journal yesterday and they are not matching up because the dealers on wall street won't give them the swap capacity they need. it is creating demand the option market because they can't go on spot. they are going to buy call options. something to watch out for. >> imagine a levered play on a levered play. >> it is on investors willing to pay that. they could by bitcoin, they could buy the etf's. he's taking advantage of that to the point that there is
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demand for his company based on his commitment to the idea. >> it is not the ompany, it is bitcoin. up next, final trades. for a limited time, get iphone 16 pro, on us. and ipad and apple watch series 10. all three on us. only on verizon.
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time for the final trades. let's go around lauren. tim. >> at&t. their churn has returned to levels of their peers. >> danny moses. >> amazon black friday football game. the only beneficiary was the gambling companies. >> great to have you on with us, danny. >> marc benioff getting in
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microsoft a grill, that seems like a performance, not great results, i would stay away. >> great having danny here for obesity week. >> great. >> and tesla, all-time high. >> what's that? >> it oftentimes is. >> on fire. >> thanks welcome to cramer. welcome to med money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate., 800 800-743-cnbc. we had some potentially devastating news that the u.s. is putting a new sancti

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