nothing left to fight for. that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. very good morning, welcome to "street signs." here are your headlines. >> france's government teeters on the brink of collapse after opposition parties tables no-confidence vote against the prime minister's handling as he calls for unity. >> translator: hopes are, and i

think it's possible -- it's up to mps, each of them with a share of responsibility in front of the french people, the votes of their constituencies, and the whole of france which finds itself in a serious moment in time. south korea hits a 24-year low with president yoon suk-yeol facing impeachment proceedings after martial law sends the country into yet another political crisis. oecd forecast gdp growth of 3.3% in 2025 and the year after with inflation set to fall toward central bank's targets. significant differences across regions and countries. and shares pare back gains after luca maestri could replace

carlos alvarez as ceo. very good morning, everyone. we start today's show looking at the latest numbers from the oecd. in terms of global gdp, the organization is now expecting this will rise to 3.3% next year and again in 2026. with resilience, global growth expected to continue. this is according to the new report from the oecd, but the group warned the strong headline figure is masking significant differences across regions and countries with plenty of uncertainty on the horizon, including the threat of terrorists and geopolitical escalations. in terms of some data we're also getting this morning, i want to share with you the latest pmi affairs for the eurozone. bear in mind these are the final readings. let me get a check on what those

are. the composite figure came in at 48.3. this is just slightly higher from the earlier figure of 48.1. in terms of services, pmis for the eurozone, they came in at 49.5. and again, this is also slightly higher from the initial number. nonetheless, both readings still below the 50 line, of course indicating contraction in the reading. and we knew the overall message from the pmis were already quite negative for the month of november, even though we're seeing a little bit of improvement here. the overall concern around where business activity is going in the eurozone is still a question mark, and we know that there is pressure across the board to understand how they can foster growth in the coming years. now, with that data in mind, i also want to get a check on how we're trading so far in european equities this morning. we have the stoxx 100 at .3%.

the benchmark had ended tuesday up around similar levels, .4%. i want to take you to bore russs too. there's an important story to monitor across the european continent. naturally, we know we have to keep a close on what's happening in france. it showed quite a lot of resilience over the last couple of days despite the political turmoil. at this stage up .4%. stronger moves over in germany with the dax up .8%, and similar levels in italy. for the time being, the ftse seems flat. the french story no doubt one of the most important ones at this stage. the french prime minister has rejected the idea that president emmanuel macron should resign amidst the political crisis that the country is facing.

barnier says he believes macron acts responsibly and will express their support for the government and its spending plans. we shall find out in a couple of hours' time. let's get a check on how some french assets have been trading over the last couple of days. at this stage, we have the euro slightly lower against the u.s. dollar, down .2%. we have seen overall pressure on the euro, and actually have found this interesting stat that i have to share with you. just to give you an idea for the currency, since the early elections in june in france, the single currency is down almost 4% on that period. even if we don't see huge shifts in terms of some of the french assets at this moment, when you think about the overall picture, the numbers are actually quite significant. as i told you earlier in the show, charlotte is live this morning from paris. charlotte, perhaps just explain

to us really what's likely to happen later today? because despite the comments from michel barnier, it seems he might not actually survive this confidence vote. >> reporter: no, this could be the very final hours of the barnier government. this vote of no confidence happening at 4:00 p.m. this afternoon -- debates at 4:00 p.m., then the vote will have happened and maybe the barnier government will be ousted barely three months after taking office. in the background was the question of the budget, the negotiations between the different parties, because of course the national assembly is extremely fragmented. they had to make some concessions, particularly with the far right. that didn't seem to work out and the left-wing bloc and far-right both agree on voting for this vote of no confidence and tapling barnier's government. a bit of a jump into the unknown, who could be the next prime minister? how can they tackle the difficult question of the deficit in particular that is expected above 6% this year? they have to try to bring it

back toward the 3% limit at some point. this overall picture in the background as to what the result might be, i have a special guest to discuss all this. marian allier, thank you for joining us today, which is expected to be a busy day. things look quite calm on the financial markets this morning, including for french bonds, despite some of the moves we've seen differently. how do you think -- see things play out potentially today and going forward, if this government is toppled? >> well, i think there is now little doubt that the government will fall. so we can say that the spread is already in cooperation over the fact that as of tonight, tomorrow, we won't have any government in france. no budget, no social security bills. so i don't see the spread moving a lot from today. seems we know who will be the next pm and what will be the plan. >> reporter: carmignac mentioned

france has led from political crisis, fiscal crisis, financial crisis, now potentially entering institutional crisis. can you just untangle this for us and give us really what the situation is? >> the situation is that, yes, the spread of france versus germany, reason a lot, from 40 before the snap election to something like 85 now. so you have a kind of, you know, financial crisis. on top of that, we have to say that yields, and absolutely yields are well below -- not well. below what it was before the snap election. so it's not -- for the moment, it's not a big problem. the yield of french is 3, 2.9%, 3%. it's not a financial crisis as such for the moment. >> reporter: when barnier was warning about a potential storm

in the government, was he just playing politics, or is he right to a certain extent? >> for sure he's right, but the longer-term horizon -- not tonight, not tomorrow, probably not next week, what is right is that we need a budget. so having no government is not an issue. have nothing budget will be an issue. so we will have to find a way of voting a budget for 2025 first off. >> reporter: one of the key issues, of course, is the deficit, above 6% this year. they try to bring back to 5%. how can that be done? again, with the national assembly that is as it is and will remain so until next summer what can government, what kind of measures what compromise and reforms can actually be tackled to tackle this issue, given the national assembly? >> to be honest, i'm very pretty lucky to be in the government, because i don't know how they can tackle the deficit, and i don't see how even though barnier was the -- the first draft was 5%, and after all the compromise we were at 5.6,

something like that. so even with a government, we are not able to reduce significantly the budget. and so i have little hope that we can go below, you know, 5% this year or even 2026. >> thank you very much. on that note, marian allier, thank you for your insight. here again, some busy days, busy hours, busy weeks ahead if the barnier government is toppled. who can macron appoint as next prime minister to try to find majority in this very fragmented national assembly? >> absolutely. i'm sure we'll be speaking again later this week. for more on the political turmoil hitting france and what it could mean for the country's economy, check out cnbc.com. and in terms of the latest data out of united states, job openings totaled 7.74 million in the month of october. that's up almost 400,000 on the month and ahead of expectations.

hires for septembers level in disruption from storms in parts of the country and strike action as well. voluntary quits rose by over 200,000 to 3.33 million. these figures are important in terms of what the fed is going to do next. we heard from austin goldsby saying rates need to come down and "a fair amount" over the next we're. he didn't weigh in on the possibility of a rate cut in december specifically but warned against rates remaining above what policymakers see as the neutral level as inflation approaches the target point and growth and unemployment data improve. san francisco president maria de leon said policy would need to be recalibrated, but the fed should keep an open mind on whether to cut rates in this month's meeting. and of course, that's taking place next week. markets at the moment are

pricing in just under 30% chance of a hold in the fed's december meeting. that's according to lsac data. i want to take you to u.s. futures. understand how we're likely to open in a couple of hours' time on wall street. they actually suggest it could be a slightly positive start to the trading day on wall street. this after what was also a very interesting session on tuesday. we had the s&p and the nasdaq posting fresh record closes, and of course, this just continues momentum that we have seen across u.s. equities since the re-election of donald trump, really. and let's see whether that's going to continue over the coming weeks to indeed form the central rally or not. coming up on the show, political turmoil rocks south korea once again as shock martial law order is rescinded after just six hours. we'll have more after this break.

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♪ welcome quack to the show. the south korean president yoon suk-yeol will face impeachment proceedings after seeing his martial law overturned by parliament hours after imposing it. yoon made an unexpected televised address late on tuesday night announcing martial law in the face of what he claimed were threats from north korea and anti-state forces, although he did not cite any specific risks. he rescinded the order six hours later in another televised address after parliament voted to overturn it. in the meantime, the bank of korea has pledged to deploy measures to stabilize the fx market while also promising to

boost short-term liquidity as needed. the bank of japan issued a statement after an emergency meeting today. let me show you how we have traded in south korea this morning. looking at the fx market to start with, because this is an unprecedented story, really, imposing martial law to then revoke it a couple of hours later. that has had implications for financial markets, too. looking at how the korean won has moved against the u.s. dollar, this morning we actually saw a little bit more of an upside move as the investors were then digesting the announcements from the bank of japan, trying to reassure the markets. but indeed, yesterday, it was actually trading at a two-year low up the back of that shocking announcement. i want to take you to other parts of market where this story has also had implications. looking at some u.s. traded korean stocks, in premarket moves, this is how they're shaping up at this stage. korea electric down more than 3%. we are seeing a little bit more

of a relief move when you think about the steel company too. we'll see how we'll fare, how we'll move across wall street in terms of these stocks later on today. but thinking about how we traded in the kospi earlier today, let me show you how -- what has happened, really. the south korean market, the main market actually ended lower on today as investors are trying to piece together what's going to happen next. and indeed, because of the shocking announcement, what ramifications this will have. not just for south korea but also for the international relations of the country, particularly with united states as well. so let's discuss this in more detail. shion heram, a member of the opposition party, said president yoon left lawmakers with no choice but to pursue an impeachment. >> translator: impeaching a president is not really a fun thing to do, not even for a

lawmaker. but this person, yoon suk-yeol, has done something crazy that violates the constitution. he essentially committed a coup d'etat. impeachment is not a choice anymore, it's a must. >> this is still a moving situation, so let me just share with you the latest comments, the latest flashes we're getting out of south korea. the defense minister has offered to resign. let's see how this will evolve, but of course the announcement from the president yesterday has had implications here as well for the defense ministry. let's see how this will continue to evolve, but in the meantime, i want to discuss really what are the ram my cases. you have been working quite closely with south korea over the years. my first yes to you is trying to understand what has happened here. did the announcement from the president show a domestic risk here? or is there any sort of evidence, perhaps, that actually

there is some sort of interference happening at this stage coming from north korea? >> as far as anybody can tell, it's entirely a decision by president yoon, unaffected by any recent activity by the north koreans who are spending their time concentrating on their relationship with moscow rather than any challenge to seoul. obviously, kim jong-un's statement back in -- in his last new year's address about changing the status of south korea to, if you want, from -- to the main enemy has implications. but there's nothing recent. >> for the time being, it seems that we are moving towards an impeachment process here. but i would like to understand whether it's likely that this move from the president will backfire for right-wing politicians? >> well -- i would have thought the answer is yes.

i mean, yoon has very low levels of popularity, high levels of unpopularity. there's a series of scandals around him, him and his wife. it was already looking bad for the conservative forces in south korea. this is only making it worse. i mean, he was a lame duck after the last national assembly elections. it seems to me now, he's a dead duck. well, i'd have thought in an anonymous vote, you're going to find those nine conservative lawmakers to actually vote for impeachment. the biggest problem then is apparently -- and i'm not a south korean legal expert -- is the constitutional court. there's so many vacancies on the court, they don't actually have the numbers to do their part of the job, which is to make a judgment as to whether that impeachment is valid. >> interesting. now, i'd also like to understand what are the implications here?

because we have seen some concern for investors off the back of these developments, these shocking developments, really. is there a sense, do you get a sense that we'll actually get political stability in korea in the near future? is this likely to be a short-lived episode? >> i'd have thought, unfortunately, no. i mean, the impeachment process takes time. if he is impeached, we have the problem with the constitutional court. they'll have to have an election within -- i think it's 60 days. so that seems to imply that if that process is ongoing, there's a degree of disruption for the next 60 days. who votes no wins the consequential presidential election and all that means. secondly, it's going to create a problem for, if you want, south korea's partners. because the european union and individual member states, including the united kingdom, which is not in the eu now, have been talking about security

partnerships with seoul. there's issues about joining the quad. all of those are going to be put on hold. this is a problem. >> that's exactly where i was going to go next. give us a little bit more color in terms of what this means for strategic partners such as uk, such as the u.s. what could happen here? >> well, i mean, all it means is all of these attempts to bring korea into active engagement are going to be on hold. for the moment, everybody's going to be waiting and watching to see the outcome of this process. and even if yoon narrowly survives, if they get 199 votes rather than 200, i mean -- that probably makes it worse, because it would be impossible for him to do anything at all. and, you know, korea is going to be in limbo. and we've already seen that

we've got a number of countries -- united states is in a degree of limbo, waiting for the inauguration on the 20th of january of donald trump. we've got the french government is struggling. the german government's got elections. it's not good news for the west and the rest. >> not good news for the west, therefore, who's winning with this news? who is happy about it? >> well, i'd have thought vladimir putin would have a smile on his face. and inasmuch as one can imagine it, so will kim jong-un. even if he hasn't got any short-term ambitions, a degree of chaos in south korea must be music to his ears. >> so, when you think about how, perhaps, putin is looking at this from russia, and given the fact that we now know donald trump is going to be the next president of the united states, what does this turmoil in south korea actually mean going forward? how do you think -- and you already hinted a little bit. how do you think donald trump is going to deal with this going forward?

>> oh, well. i mean, it's going to be an interesting relationship between donald trump and every president in seoul. because of course, one expects that trump will be demanding a lot more money from south korea for, as he sees it, the supply of, if you want, american security. there may well be an attempt by donald trump to negotiate with north korea. i think kim jong-un will be willing to talk. i think he'll be very resistant after the fiasco in hanoi to actually make a deal. but i think this means it's always going to be partly the case, but this means that south korea won't be in that process at all, which is going to make people rather unhappy in seoul, whether they're on the conservative side or the progressive side of politics. >> interesting. i have a final question in terms of what this means for nato. you know, over the last couple of months, years i should say,

in the wake of the russian aggression in ukraine, there's conversations about whether nato can expand a little more into asia. whether that's having offices there as opposed to, of course, expanding membership. we saw a couple of criticism, critical comments, really, off the back of those discussions. what do you think is likely to happen here in terms of nato itself strengthening its partnership with asian nations? >> well, i mean, clearly -- i mean, there's been a -- i mean, both south korea and japan have recently, if you want, strengthened their relationship with nato. and seoul now has an ambassador to nato based in brussels. but i think it's, again, everything's going to be on hold. no one's going to want to sign anything until they see what's going to come out of this -- of this mess at the moment. so, i think it's -- it's calls and it may become calls if the

situation in seoul doesn't settle down in the next three or four months. >> well, let's see. two to three months still sound quite a long time. we appreciate your time this morning. that was glynn ford, former member of the european parliament. i would like to share some comments from the deutsche bank ceo, speaking over the last couple of minutes. he's saying that it is urgent that we see action to turn around the german economy and adjust the country's business model. of course this comes also as we are approaching the snap election in late february, also at a time when german politicians are discussing what to do in regards to the debt break. the deutsche bank also saying there's a likelihood we'll see more job cuts in germany's auto industry, and we know that overall there has already been quite a lot of pressure in this sector. and deutsche bank ceo also saying, i'm staying out of commerce bank uni credit deal situation. this is an important comment when you think about the overall

discussions in terms of consolidation across the bloc, what some german officials have said in regards to uni credit trying to increase its stake in commerce bank. deutsche bank ceo saying they're listing out of that commerce credit/uni bank credit situation. china, in terms of service sector activity this grew at a slower pace in the month of november with pmi coming in at a weaker than expected 51.5, down from 52 in the month of october but above the 50-point mark that draws the line between expansion and contraction. a source with knowledge of the matter has told cnbc that speculation apple cfo luca maestri is unfounded. this comes after a report says maestri's name had quote emerged

in succession discussions. we'll see what will happen. stellantis has said they will come up with a new name for the ceo the first half of next year. next we'll cross over to the conference in london where we'll be joined by the u.s. assistant secretary of state for energy resources. we'll see you after this break.

♪ welcome to "street signs." i'm sylvia maro and here are your headlines. government on the brink of collapse after opposition parties stage a no-confidence vote over barnier's budget handling as he calls for unity. >> translator: hopes, and i think it's possible, talk to mps, each of them with a shared responsibility in front of the french people. the votes of their constituencies and the whole of

france, which finds itself in a pretty serious moment in time. south korea's yuan hits a two-year low 24 hours after the president yoon suk-yeol facing impeachment proceedings after a brief period of martial law sends the country into yet another political crisis. the 2025 growth forecast warns tariffs and high government deficits to pose a risk to future growth. eurozone's pmi comes in ahead of expectations in november as the policymaker robert holes man says a bumper cut is not viable this month. ♪ in terms of the latest data, we just obtained the latest figures for uk pmis for the

month of november. this is the final reading, and it came in at 50.5. that's the global pmi composite figure. it is indeed above what had come through in the first reading. but indeed, it also crosses the line of that 50 benchmark which is important as well. so just marginally in a positive territory for the time being. in terms of the services pmi figure, the final reading came in at 50.8. that's also slightly higher from what we had gotten initially. but it just crosses that 50 benchmark threshold, which is of course important, because it distinguishes between contraction and positive territory. but nonetheless, it still shows it fuels those concerns about where the uk economy is going, what sort of growth we'll see in this nation. in the meantime, i also want to take you through how european equities are trading this morning.

in terms of how the stoxg 600 is moving, the benchmark up seeing mostly green so far, continuing the positive sentiment we had already seen on tuesday as well as on monday, really. so it seems the investors are putting aside, for the time being, concerns around the political turmoil in france. but nonetheless focused on incoming data. with that in mind, let me show you how european bourses are faring across the european continent. naturally, we continue to monitor very closely what's happening in france. at this stage up .4%. we are seeing more upside over in germany as well as in italy. however, the ftse 100 down .3% after those final uk pmi readings. u.s. futures shaping up, this is at this stage they imply a positive start to the trading session on wall street. of course, yesterday we saw the

s&p, the nasdaq posting fresh record closes. the bullish sentiment around u.s. equities has continued in early december. in terms of what e're going to expect today, we're going to get adp figures as well as factory orders. those factors due to be released later today. the jobs report on friday is likely to be the key market event this week. we'll see. in the meantime, i want to take you to some of the stories we're following this morning. rio tinto is facing a renewed campaign from activist investor to scrap its primary london listing and unify its corporate structure over in australia. palisare says investors have lost $50 billion in value under the current setup. that puts pressure on discussions we have seen so far in terms of where the ftse and uk listings are actually going to go. as saudi arabia moves to diversify its economy from oil, one sector is looking to -- they're looking to boost, i

should say, mining with the kingdom's vice minister for mining affairs telling cnbc he hopes to attract $100 billion of investments by 2035. i also asked the vice minister how much the mining sector can actually contribute to the gdp going forward. >> we are around $65 billion now. mining is a new industry in saudi arabia. it is official 2030. given the expectation it wasn't as much, we want to quadruple, four times the existing size. we are already achieving the targets of 2025. so we are ahead of the achievements. but the mining government sector, not only in saudi arabia but also providing we have just established the mineral, the national mineral program to provide for saudi arabia domestic needs for minerals and show that our supply chain is

secured for -- to deliver in 2030. >> joining us now from the sidelines of the resourcing tomorrow mining conference is jeffrey pyatt, u.s. assistant secretary of state for energy resources. good morning. good to have you on the show. i would like to pick up the conversation on some of the comments that we just heard from the vice minister for mining of saudi arabia. indeed, we are seeing them investing quite a lot, quite heavily on mining. i just would like to understand, what is the u.s. position amid this agreeing competition at the global level? >>, so we're trying to solve for two problems at the same time. first, in order to meet our energy transition goals, we're going to need vastly increased volumes of cobalt, lithium, nickel, zinc, copper. second, we need to make sure that as we expand our access to energy minerals, we don't do so in a way that undermines our energy security, by deepening

dependance on one country, china, which dominates the vast majority of processing and extraction. and in that regard, very, very supportive of the investments that countries like saudi arabia are making to deepen the supply, but also the diversification of these energy mineral chains. >> interesting. i'd also like to get your thoughts on the overall work over the last couple of -- two years, really, in terms of sanctions on russia. we know that the overall western position, including united states, has been to try to hurt the revenues of russia in terms of oil and gas. but ultimately, that doesn't seem to actually be taking place. how would you assess the overall two years in terms of trying to hurt russia's economy on the energy front? >> so, our goal is clear. it is to reduce the revenues that the kremlin has available to pursue this illegal and unjustified invasion of ukraine.

from that perspective, the policy is working. you can see, for instance, the steps that we've recently taken, working with partners around the world, gazprom bank, and the knock-on effect that has had on the ruble exchange rate, which today is weaker than it's been at any time since march of 822, right after the start of the full-scale invasion. we're going to continue to tighten the screws against russia's energy revenues. and we're going to do so jointly with partners around the world, including, importantly, here in the uk. in this regard, i would also put a positive spotlight on the uk government's recent moves to tighten the enforcement of sanctions against the russian shadow fleet which has been used to circumvent the measures that we've put in place as part of our g7 price cap coalition. >> i have a chance to look at some of the figures, and overall, we have seen a slight drop in terms of revenues for russia coming from oil, coming

from gas. but we have seen other parts of the world, for instance, china, buying more of russian energy. so are you in the grand scheme of things, do you have to rethink the strategy here? because ultimately, it's not having that significant dent that you've claimed you would like to achieve. >> no, we believe it is having an effect. and you can see it. putin has militarized the entire russian economy. but you can see in the exchange rates, you can see in the losses that gazprom is now being forced to report, you can see it in russia's loss of its european market for russian gas, that this has been a huge strategic defeat for the kremlin. it takes time for these sanctions to bite, but we're beginning to see the effect there. and we are committed to maintaining the pressure, continuing to tighten the screws in order to create the incentive structure for russia to

negotiate in good faith. but also to reduce the resources which the kremlin uses to prosecute this war. we are going to continue to focus on enforcement, reinforcing our work across the price cap coalition, but also working to reduce our collective exposure to russian energy supplies. because that is the source -- that's the source of the kremlin's political leverage, but it's also through that diversification is how we achieve our own energy security. >> and one of your closest allies in this whole process has been the eu. do you take issue with the fact that european nations, some european nations, not all, are still buying russian gas? >> so, every country is in a slightly different situation. the united states was in a position of privilege because of the abundance of our domestic oil and gas industry. europe has achieved dramatic progress in terms of reducing its exposure to russian fossil

fuels. and we strongly support the commitment that the eu has made which president von der leyen has affirmed to the decoupling from russian energy supplies by 2027. that's going to require continued progress now, especially on issues of russian lng. but these are topics where there's a high degree of convergence between the united states, between washington and brussels, and an area where we're confident that there is a consensus across the transatlantic community. and i think that consensus is going to continue through the political transition in the united states as reflected in the first phone call between president-elect trump and president von der leyen. >> now, we are currently witnessing the end of an important political mandate in the united states. a new president is going to take over in the new year. i would like to understand here is what is your message to the incoming administration in case they consider rolling back some of these measures that you've actually been working on?

>> so, i have seen no suggestion that people around president trump and his incoming administration are looking at the weakening of our sanctions regime. to the contrary. people like senator rubio, nominee for secretary of state, have been strong voices in support of an even tightened sanctions regime against russia. my message as i hand off to the new administration is to emphasize the centrality of energy security as part of the united states' overall national security strategy. and the progress that we are making today. both in terms of our traditional energy sector, where the united states is producing more oil and gas than we ever have before. 13.5 million barrels a day. more than iraq and saudi arabia combined. but we are also leading the way in the energy transition.

expanding wind, solar, renewables, clean hydrogen, battery storage, industries that represent a huge opportunity for job creation and economic prosperity in the united states in the future. so i feel very good about where we are on these issues. >> well, let's see what's going to happen not long now until we have a new administration in place. but in the meantime, we appreciate your time this morning. that was geoffrey pyatt, the assistant secretary of state for energy resources for the u.s. coming up on the show, france counts down to the conclusion no-confidence vote of michel barnier's government. more live from paris next. there are some feelings you can get with any sportsbook. ohhh! the highs! no, no, no. the no, no, noooos - oooooooo! the oh, oh, ohhhhs! now whatcha wanna do with this? but the feeling that, no matter what, you're taken care of.

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♪ welcome back to "street

signs." we're approaching an ecb decision next week, so let me run you through some of the comments we have received recently. from central bank officials, starting with austrian central bank governor robert holzmann said a 25-point basis point rate cut is possible but said a larger move is not conceivable based on the recent data. speaking to an austrian newspaper, holzmann said u.s. president-elect trump is likely to drive up inflation forecasts for the euro area. meanwhile, the bank of finland, governor oli rand said in a newspaper interview the case for december rate cut has increased with policy-easing likely to continue in the coming months. markets are currently pricing around 13% chance of a 50 basis point cut from the central bank this month. that's according to ldag data. french president emmanuel macron says he does not believe michel barnier's government will fall. speaking to reporters in saudi

arabia, he described the national rally party as, quote, unbearably cynical for backing the motion and accused the socialist party of losing its bearings. macron also downplayed concerns around the financial impact of the political turmoil, saying the country's economy is strong. and charlotte is in paris this morning. we return to paris with you, charlotte. interesting how emmanuel macron is commenting on this political turmoil from saudi arabia and basically saying that he's not concerned about what's going on. >> reporter: and yet by the time he flies back to france this evening, he might have to name a new prime minister after this vote of no confidence debate starting at 4:00 p.m. here in paris at the national assembly, which means by dinnertime, the vote of no confidence might have toppled the current michel barnier government that has been in office less than three months now. we know this comes on the back

of his government calling to push through one of the budget bills without a vote, therefore triggering this vote of no confidence after weeks of negotiations to try and reach some compromise, particularly with the far right, to get some of their support. but that didn't seem to be enough. so thousand we end up in this situation with this government could be coming to an end tonight. speaking to different people here on the ground this morning, this is what they had to say about the current situation. >> it was the 24th time this article, 49.3, was used. it's a means to force but without the sent of the national assembly. i disagree with this method. at this time it was once more. we have logged a no confidence motion with the new popular front, and we will vote it as we did in september when michel barnier presented himself to the national assembly, because he's not legitimate. >> france needs stability.

we would like that the government go on, because the task is hard, to cut spending, to address these public deficits. we need time. this government is three, four months old. we need to give time. and so business needs, again, stability. when they invest, they invest for the long run. as you know, the french economic situation is worsening. >> there is no little doubt that the government will fall. so we can say that the spread is already in cooperation with the fact that as of tonight, tomorrow, we won't have any government in france. no budget, no social security bills. so i don't see the spread moving a lot from today since we know who will be the next pm. >> reporter: and of course, if the barnier government falls tonight, the question is what next? then the president will have to pick a new prime minister. but the national assembly

remains as divided until at least july next year. so the next person that might come in, they will still have to try to negotiate with different political parties. and of course in the background, the big issue is the finances and deficit running above 6% this year. the bank trying to bring it back to around 5% next year. it's hard to see who might be able to lead the government to thigh to tackle some of these issues without a majority in parliament. >> exactly. it is not an easy picture as of this moment. let's discuss it in more detail with a new guest. we have hadrian camatte, senior economist for france, belgium, and the eurozone. first and foremost, what i would like to understand is the chance is at this stage suggest we could see the barnier government actually collapsing today. what i would like to understand is what happens next here? >> yes, thanks a lot for the

question. first and foremost, it's not over until there's been a vote, first and foremost. we remember the liverpool football club winning the champions league despite being down at halftime. first we have to wait for the vote. but of course, that's -- that sounds an end game for barnier's government tonight. so what's next? it's a very good question, of course. so is the no-confidence vote, sixes prime minister barnier will resign and president macron will accept it? that's important to repeat. after this a social security bill will be rejected. then there are several outcomes for political outcomes and the budget regarding the -- regarding the politics. the president can appoint a new prime minister? i think it's a bit complicated to know at this stage.

the government, so -- for example, belgium or the country, it could balk for some time. of course, we'd have to wait until the possibility of new snap elections from -- >> speaking of snap elections, hadrian, what i would like to understand is what is the outlook for oats the next six months or so? we can't have an election until the summertime, really. the chances that we'll see political uncertainty and instability are quite high. what's the outlook here for the bond market? >> yes, first of all, the uncertainty remains. so that's not a good thing for achieving the coming months. but at this stage, i should say, there's a lot of bad news already incorporated in the spread. i think even if the government is dismissed tonight, it won't

go too well at this stage and following a new identity for the prime minister before new information. in the case of strategists, not maximum, but we can go to 100 bps in case of new. >> reporter: france wants to go around a record 300 billion you're euros this year. the second-biggest spending for the government after education and ahead of defense. how sustainable is this for the french government from an economic point of view, also from a political one? >> yes, sure. definitely sustainable. we have very strong economies with a very diversified and very strong assets. but of course, we have to be very careful. of course debt is high but that's not too high either. as you mentioned earlier, we

continue to cut rates and expect a new rate cut coming right at 2% by next june. so of course it will help the state to get some of those announcements. of course, we have to be careful. we did some debt stability analysis, and french debt will be scheduled to end until at least 2029, according to our stimulations, before stablization or liquidity, of course. >> reporter: and very briefly, may i ask you, what does all this political uncertainty and potential instability mean for france as an investment destination as well? is it particularly damaging? >> yeah, that's a problem for both consumers and investors. first regarding consumers, we can see the recent surveys that there are some increasing fears

of unemployment. so that's something that we have to be careful, because these fears are rising. consumers consume less. people consume less. it's good news for private consumption. and of course we've got an investment. when you have a political and fiscal -- fiscal uncertainty, of course, you delay your investment or you invest in another destination, other countries. so that's a big problem for us. and i think we need more clarity, fiscal clarity and political clarity. and of course, it will be interesting to see if we can have a budget before year end despite no government or new government. so the french constitution provides some tricks of some tool tools for budget, at least with special lows or with -- >> reporter: hadrian, i'm afraid

we have to leave the conversation. we're just approaching the end of the show. we appreciate your time this morning as we try to follow what's happening over in france. that was hadrian camatte, senior economist for france, belgium, and our own charlotte reed in paris. a quick look at how we're trading in europe this morning. we are seeing mostly upside for european equities, almost .4%. in terms of how we're shaping up ahead of the open on wall street, this is how u.s. futures are moving at this moment, implying a positive start to the trading day on wall street. we shall find out in a couple of hours' time. however, that is it for today's show. i'm a mara for cnbc.

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♪ breaking news, global governments in crisis. politics impacting investors. south korean opposition parties call for the president's impeachment after he briefly declares marble law. that president now accused of treason. the defense minister resigning. this is all triggers what many see as the biggest south korean crisis in decades. financial markets are still reeling. france, the government on the brink of collapse as the prime minister face acinoconfidence vote after months of failed negotiations. back