ground at all. i like nasdaq ndaq it's the beneficiary when ipos and capital formation come back in 2025. >> so we'll see you at "closing bell." we will follow 20,000 is in the nasdaq, got a lot going on i'll see you then. thank you very much, scott and welcome to "the exchange," i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead bitcoin tops 100,000 for the first time ever and president-elect trump says you're welcome mike novogratz says we're witnessing a paradigm shift. bitcoin 100 k one of the reasons our market guest is taking money off the table in fact, he's the most bearish on the market he's been since before covid he tells us why and where he is

going to put capital to work. recruiter.com has new data on the hiring and firing trends last month one of them surprised our guest. he's here with that. let's get the lay of the land with the big round numbers going around dom chu has those for us. >> kelly, big numbers and record highs yet again in the session i'll put the stars up right away so we know where they are. s&p 500 hit a record high, and the nasdaq composite hit a record high intraday we are near the best levels of the session for those two indices. the dow industrials are the laggards the dow at 44,909 we're off just about a hundred points, 1/4 of 1% for the s&p 500, i mentioned near the session highs, 6,094 for the time being, just right now is the record intraday, we're at 6,093, one point away from there we were up about eight points at the highs of the session, down 8 points at the low. a symmetrical trade.

the nasdaq composite at 19,000 is goold good record highs in the s&p and nasdaq it's a mixed story with regard to one key part of the market. that's the holiday shopping season with retailers, aspects of american eagle, signet jewelers among some of the worst performers in the market down 13 of 14% kroger is shifted higher now, generally a more positive earnings report, at least it was earlier on, and dipped a little bit lower now, back up again, but dollar general and five below, very much a mixed picture there on some generally better than expected results on certain parts of the report. a mixed picture for the retailers right now. american eagle and signet to the downside 103,800 is the record high

so 103844 thereabout s the record high for bitcoin prices currently at 103,367, up 2 1/2%. the total market cap for bitcoin is $2 trillion, and of course that's carrying up the ecosystem stocks as well check out the names like marathon holdings, up 1/4 of 1%, coin base global, market strategies and the i shares bitcoin trust. they have lost a little bit of steam earlier on today generally speaking, those cryptocurrency stocks in the whole ecosystem, kelly positive for the election, and very much for this year. >> thank you very much, dom. our next guest says the 100k milestone represents way more than a applies and these moves are still just the beginning of bitcoin's story. here now for more, i don't know if we should call it a victory lap. mike novogratz is the founder and ceo of blockchain company galaxy and an early investor in bitcoin. what's the portfolio statement

at this point? how much money have you made off of this stuff? >> a lot listen, you know, more important than the money, there's been a group of people for really 15 years that have tried to birth this asset into existence, and it's just a time to, you know, pause and recognize that it's a community that got together that decided they were going to store their hard-earned worth in this technology and, you know, if satoshi was alive, because i don't think he is, i'm sure he would have a big smile on his face. it's a great technology, and really the social construct that people learn to understand each other. in a lot of ways, this is the greatest example of broad-based coalition of people coming together to do something spectacular. before we talk about price, i want to recognize the moment $2 trillion asset in 15 years, coming out of a guy's idea is

pretty stinking spectacular. >> it is, and there's a generation gnat significance here as well many people who made a the lot of money on this are on the younger side good luck trying to get into the real estate, the stock market, this is a protocol that has minted a new generation of millionaires and maybe more at this point a lot of people also who have been kind of the real buyers have sticky hands. there's people i know, who you know who have made a lot of money on this, and they still insist, they are never selling why is that? do you think that's still true >> this is the belief system for people, right? it's a belief system more so even than a financial asset for a lot of people. that said, you know, i was on the phone with one of the great macro investors in the world, and we were discussing, we might have just seen in the last three months, the single greatest wealth gain for 25 to 45-year-olds in history. right? because they have a lot of their money in crypto. you have had crypto broadly double or more depending on what

collection of coins you own, and what impact that will have on the economy, right in general, 22, 23% of wealth shocks gets spent in consumption. i think you're going to see, you know, the tables at miami are get to get back up on the miami nightclubs and people are going to be buying houses and cars, and so it will be interesting to see if the fed has an input of an increase in consumption from this massive wealth gain that a bunch of young people have made. >> totally for the skeptics, mike, and myself, a neighbor of mine works at coinbase, and he explained it all. i thought, okay, i intellectually understand how this is unique and can be a valid and novel value, basically, let's remember this was also created with the idea that being a unit of currency, and kind of native currency to the internet, no one wants to spend it we all want to hold it >> early on, it morphed itself

from a payments idea from a store value, the digital gold, and if you just simply think of this as the new generation's gold, it is historic value it will go down when people say we don't need it right now, here's a frenzy around bitcoin all around the world. it's one of the first global asset, but there is so much leverage in the system, right, the basis, what it costs to fund long positions is as wide as i have ever seen it. so will it last until the end of the year, i think so could it last to the inauguration, i think so i can guarantee all your listeners, there will be at least one, if not two, vicious retracements which will test your soul. right? when there's that much leverage in a system, it washes it out. the bigger question is, you know, why did i call this a paradigm shift the reason i called it a

paradigm shift is we had four years of horrible regulation and an administration that really didn't want to promote digital assets, bitcoin or any cryptocurrency in america, and america literally leads the world in regulation. if we don't -- if it doesn't work here, it's very hard for it to work elsewhere. and we have a president now, like him or not, he is great for the crypto industry. he said early on he was going to be a crypto president, a bitcoin president, a cabinet full of believers, full of people that are low on crypto. so you can see what the choice of the s.e.c. chair, we are going to have a much different regulatory environment, and that's going to allow innovation it's going to allow trade fi, you know, the citibanks of the world, and everyone else to participate in this new asset class. and, you know, it's tough

because you can see one hand, man, it feels frothy, and leveraged, a lot of stocks feel expensive. on the other hand, it feels like the rest of the world is just going to get, you know, the traditional world is just going to get a chance to play. >> exactly >> i think it's going to be volatile that end up higher not lower. >> two questions, what is the practical significance of the s.e.c. chair going to be do you think you're going to see corporate america seeing bitcoin on the balance sheet, do you think we're going to see bitcoin on the 401(k), what's the pragmatic pragmatic change we're going to experience >> our industry we're not going to feel attacked at everything we do. hopefully the s.e.c. gives a company like ours a clear path to a broker dealer we have been desperate to take that track, and so we're going to need congress to pass some legislation on market structure, on stable coins, but i think, you know, the congress was ready

to in the last term, and so between the congress and the s.e.c., not hitting us with a hammer in the knees, every time they can, you're going to see more innovation, right it's been unbelievably expensive to run a crypto country in america, our audits are three times what a normal audit might be the legal bills my company pays are astronomical on what i would think is just frivolous, constant haranguing from the regulatory industries, and i think the whole tone is going to change as that tone changes, it frees up more traditional players to say, hey, we can participate in this as well right? you're going to need the new head of the occ, the bank regulators, to say, hey, banks can put crypto on their balance sheet. they're going to need accounting rule changes, which i'm hearing are going to happen on day one of the administration. banks like bank of new york, and custody crypto, as you allow the big giant players, that house

most of the money in the world to participate, the quantum of money that comes into the space is going to dwarf what we have seen in the past >> for people putting fresh capital to the space, fine, i migszed missed it, a correction is coming do they buy bitcoin, bitcoin at least has the fixed supply i'm not sure about everything else what would you recommend that they buy >> i should cheekily pitch my own stock. i don't think that's fair. the -- i would suggest bitcoin, ethereum, and some solana, and i would cost average we have just had a monster run to pile at the top, if it goes down, you're going to feel horrible >> yeah. >> this asset class is not going away it's going to be here in 2025 and 2026 and in 2036, and so they can take their time, they can start simple, they can get a

good adviser that can figure out what stocks they should buy if they want to everything looks expensive they have a whole market, not just the crypto market but the s&p 500, the market is frothy. and so i just leave that as a -- leave some power to buy the corrections. >> love it let me also pivot. my next guest is someone who remains a crypto skeptic, there are plenty still out there in the investment world, and my earlier point about how it's not a medium of exchange anymore, it's meant to ask the question, what is the use case that bitcoin serves societally. in some ways it doesn't matter it could be a store value. >> it is not complicated, it's gold, it's a way, listen, why do people put money and at one point diamond or gold, they lose something in their underlying currency if you had lived in turkey or

iran or venezuela or nigeria, the value of your nyra or lira deteriorated immensely in the last few years often people put it in dollars this pillow cases, there were more in circulation overseas is, than there are ones in circulation. that was the store value as we move to a igital world, it's stable coins or dollar. there's a giant stable coin industry or bitcoin. why bitcoin versus stable coin people are starting to lose faith that the u.s. government can ever balance their budget again. we were running 6% budget deficits in a time of full employment that's lunacy. while trump is going to work on the budget and elon is going to cut spending, we'll see it when we see it, right we're still a 6% budget deficit predicted for next year. i pray elon musk has success cutting fat in the government,

but it's hard to do. five presidents said they were going to shut down the department of education, and none have succeeded. congress controls the budget we have a very tight house, right, the republicans have a two-seat majority, a three-seat majority, the senate they're not close to 60, and so if you believe like i believe that populism is going to continue to reign supreme both in the u.s. and elsewhere, companies are going to print more currency than they should, and hard assets like bitcoin, gold, silver will go up. it's not a straight line we're having a correction in gold because of scott bessent, he's a great pick for treasury secretary. if you got scott bessent and elon cutting, maybe they have a chance, is why gold is selling off. they got a big steep hill to climb. >> and ironically, best said on the podcast before he was announced that gold was his

biggest, you know, for all the underlying reasons you described. >> his job is to make the price of gold go down. he's a great secretary of treasury he has a great fed chair companion, the is to make the price of gold go down. bitcoin is the report card. >> if he idea is to make the dollar in real terms, it should affect bitcoin too. >> other than we've got a massive adoption wave. >> and that should drive demand. mike, appreciate you making the time to join us on this very very significant day >> thanks so much. >> mike novogratz is the ceo of galaxy. with that intro, let's move to my next guest who says bitcoin is in a clear bubble mike didn't exactly disagree with that. could end badly, here with opportunities outside of crypto is voice chair and head of investment group at aerial, what a back-to-back pairing, charlie, welcome, love to their your thoughts. >> thanks for having me. the headline is bitcoin is going up because it's gone up

recently people are playing this momentum they have seen people on television get rich. this is a get-rich-quick scheme. get-rich-quick schemes always end badly. they used to pitch it as having transactional value. now they are admitting that the only value it has is store value. and where mike is wrong, and god bless him, he's done very well and built a real company, where he's wrong is in thinking that the government has had a sledge hammer against their knees bitcoin has less regulation than other commodities, less regulation than foreign currencies it is benefitting from -- in fact, its main appeal, that's why it's used by blackmailers and foreign terrorists is because it isn't regulated you can send massive amounts without having to live with know your customer rules the way that banks have to deal with a $50,000 deposit.

try making a $50,000 payment out of bank of america you will get lots of questions about know your customers. so the point of this is that it has gone up. because it's gone up, and it will go down dramatically if it starts to lose that momentum, and that will happen mike's right, in the short-term regulation is unlikely to get worse, but there are lots of people in the government who do not believe that undermining the u.s. dollar is a good thing for the u.s., and who are worried about individuals getting badly hurt >> yeah, by the way, i'm in the camp that i don't like the dollar being the reserve currency it makes it expensive. it's criminal. the fact that we're putting tariffs on china when all of this could be solved if they didn't artificially suppress their currency, it's like we're creating two problems tosoever the original one. >> i agree with you. but we've got $33 trillion worth of debt and people better believe in the dollar or the

problems will be a lot worse. >> we can service this how many people created a treasury direct account for 5% rates. 100%, we could fund this. >> no, kelly a lot of securities are owned by foreign entities. >> because they have to buy them to keep their currencies low, and if they don't do that, they wouldn't be enabling the massive debt pile we have to deal with. >> you may be right. the u.s. government and leaders of the u.s. reserve and frankly members of congress do not believe it's in the best interest of the country long-term to undermine the dollar, and crypto is all about undermining the dollar, so i think they are not as regulated as mike thinks they are. they are certainly less regulated than other commodities, other financial assets in the short-term, he's right because the regulatory environment not going to get worse. i think longer term, regulation

is more likely to go up than down. >> which is a great point about how it's going to mature as a traditional and classic financial asset class. charlie, you mentioned and so did mike, share this concern that not only crypto, but the s&p and the markets are frothy right now. what's the practical advice to do about that. >> we don't think you should trade tactically all the evidence says when people try to trade around valuation, they buy at the top and sell at the bottom that's why the average investor doesn't get as good a return as the indexes do but you can make adjustments and you can do small things warren buffett has been trimming positions. we believe right now is a good time to trim stocks that have run too much there are things like giving appreciated stocks to your favorite charities, this year, you can get a full tax deduction on an appreciated stock without paying the capital gains, get the deduction this year. we would advise doing that, and frankly, i would advise going

down the risk spectrum taking some beta off the table the nice thing is one industry that's gotten beaten up is the health care industry with people being worried about kennedy coming in, and so there are a lot of less cyclical health care stocks that are more attractive. on the margin, take risk off maybe even increase your cash. give to your favorite charity. and don't add more at the top. >> that's so interesting because to go into health care, which, again, has been such a laggard, kind of such a hated space, but i know you're a traditional value investor, what do you do with names like apa, do you hang on, do you need more clarity that's a whole sector getting left out in the cold, which is not a clear trend. >> thank you, yeah, and i would have come clean on apa, even if you hadn't brought it up it's been a very tough time to be in oil and gas. the market is acting as if oil is going away and cars are all going to be electric the forward curve is not pretty for oil.

expiration companies like apache have had a tough year. if you believe the dollar is going to be weak as mike did in the previous sector, then you're probably going to want to be in commodity like companies the commodity companies are out of favor there's a concern when we get an end to the russia/ukraine war that that will bring out more supply of oil and that that would be bad for an apa, my own personal view is that russia is still selling most of its capacity, getting around the u.s. s these stocks have not worked right now, they're trading at good value, if you believe like i do, that we're going to be using a lot of oil for the next 20 years. >> the mohawks, everything in the home building products, charlie, thanks for joining us that was fun really appreciate the time with ariel investments. the top trends they're seeing in the labor market and

what it says about the economy we'll dig into that next. open ai's 12 days of shipments kicks off today as the start up plans to unveil a feature, pruk or demo every weekday for the next dozen days. kate rooney has the details as they rule out the new features "thexcnge"s ckft eha iba aer this >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪ it's hard to say who'll be more excited on the day after christmas. the guy who got a brand new truck from mom and dad. or the guy who got all the weathertech protection for his truck.

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this morning wanted to stay low they did back up while the challenger report showed hiring in the first 11 month was down 2% our next guest is picking up on signs of weakness in the labor market, including a hiring pullback in an unexpected sector evan stone, senior adviser ore cross-suitor.com, and ceo of flora intelligence because we might hear from the department of government efficiency in a few minutes here, tell us a little bit about the slow down in government hiring you're picking up on? >> yeah, so we have been seeing, first of all, kelly, thanks for having me back we have been seeing throughout the hole who year government jobs being in the number one or number two segment for most recruited positions, and in the past month, we saw it completely fade away. just a complete downturn and we really think that, like, where we're shooting up almost 138% in october, sort of post election, are really just gone so a real pullback, i think the

real question then is what's replacing that what's going to replace the job report, the government jobs that people were feeling, and certainly the department of government efficiency would have an impact on those jobs themselves. >> what do you think is going on here obviously this is all happening before they do anything like trying to execute on their mandate. >> look, you know, we had speculated that this was a little bit buoying up the overall job market for government positions and so not surprised that there's a little bit of a pull down there, so i'd rather not speculate on what the government was actually doing to keep those job numbers up. >> health care, evan, is another area analysts are watching on the jobs report tomorrow to see. it's been so strong, and many people have made this point. between government and health care, that's really where most of the job growth is coming, some vis-a-vis the private sector health care is part of it. are there any trends that you can kind of shed insight on?

>> so, the other thing that's interesting, so first off, yes, i think health care is always good we saw some increase in logistics of food services the other thing that we saw from recruiters is an increase in recruiters in the electronic manufacturing space. so, again, very interesting that if we're going to start bringing back manufacturing jobs, a leading indicator is where are the recruiters getting hired, so we're seeing recruiters getting hired in that space, also digital commerce services. i thought that was actually a very interesting, very interesting observation as well, as part of jobs support. >> on the hiring front, this is the one area where if we want to move through whatever soft patch we have experienced into something more sustainable for the economy next year, we have to see an increase in hiring even though we wouldn't need to see them by the way the rest of the economy is doing where are we seeing hiring, and where is it a little bit dryer

>> the interest ig thing thing sentiment went up. it actually ticked up to 3 out of 5 again, we're not back at the levels, we're not at the bitcoin levels, 5 or 6 but three. we saw the workloads increase, and that also the wages increase ld ed we see those three things move that's going to point to greater hiring the jolt report showed that quitting while much lower than it was year over year, actually increasing also. so people are moving around. hiring is up a little bit. so we certainly saw those in the sellers. now, what you're showing on the screen in the open jobs, retail and technology are really, really came down, whereas finance was actually up, so that was nice to see that finance jobs might be coming back as well >> well, that will be good news i guess this time of year. i mean, it sounds like the

bonuses were decent given that it was kind of a down year for deals and so forth evan, we appreciate it we'll see if tomorrow can deliver and if it does, what that means in the hopes of rate cuts later this month. appreciate your time >> thank you, evan sohn of recruiter.com. robinhood shares are at the highest level in more than three years after the inaugural investor day, where they outlined the vision for the next decade shares are down 1.7% off the highs. we'll bring reaction ahead. and uber and lyft moving lower after alphabet's waymo has unveiled plans to expand to miami, starting with human safety, before launching self-driving robotaxi service in 2026 uber is having the worst day since october, down 8%, lyft down about the same amount for the details on the full story, head to cnbc.com. "the exchange" is back after this

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unitedhealthcare ceo brian thompson in new york city. the pictures show the full face of the suspect an nypd official also tells nbc news it appears the gunman left writings on three shell casings, the word defend, deny and depose a phrase that echoes the book "delay deny defend" about insurance and claim denials. global food prices are at an 18-month high and show no signs of slowing down, that's according to the united nations food and agriculture organization, including grain, meat, dairy, and sugar rose 2% in october and that the price spike was driven by vegetable oil which increased by 24% and uber is expanding its christmas tree delivery option nationwide customers can use uber eats to order the tree decorations, you can get gifts through the app as well. i don't know why we're showing

bees there, but who knows. in some selection cities, you can call for carollers who will serenade you and serve you a festive drink, kelly that service is available starting saturday in new york, in dallas, miami, and d.c. uber, your carollers, they'll be there. >> if you're in northern new jersey, and you want the chemy children to do christmas carols. >> that's a nice choir right there. >> slide into my dms tyler, see you soon. day one of open ai's 12 days of ship-mas the ai startup has announced two new features kate rooney brings us that story for tech check. >> we had two new updates as ship-mas, as open ai is calling it, kicks off today. first, we had a better version of one of its main models, and in the $200 per month pro tier,

during a live demo, sam altman saying it's faster, smarter, should be a better experience for engineers and coders said it showed major improvements in computation, and on ph.d. level science questions. they say it's outperforming human experts by about 10 percentage points. according to altman, on that demo, he said the boost might look small, but they are significant. has more what they call multimodal understanding and reasoning. meaning it can interpret more images and voice and then this new tier of chatgpt, called gpt pro mode, $200 per month, this is really for power users who need more than that $20 of compute that they would get per month, and seemingly be willing to pay for that it shows a willingness to charge for the services which is going to be key to the company breaking even. it is a very capital intensive business it's not just open ai. the other frontier that's

emerging, image to 3d videos the world labs set the new bar with what looks like a video game you can see that there these are modifiable worlds in 3d, and google's gemini rolled out something similar. we are waiting for a competitor, we might get more image and 3d renderings there >> show that that was beautiful what platform did she use to create that? >> this is called world lab. so they take an image, and then they create it into a 3d world theoretically, you could upload a picture of whatever that started as, it kind of looks like a dr. seuss thing, but you start there, and then it creates this 3d world. so it's not for the every day person, and same with the chatgpt open ai updates, these are deep chat. these are for creative folks who might be video game developers, but it's really pushing the limits of what these models are capable of

it's fun to look at. really interesting, and shows kind of future, and raising the bar really all of these companies need to keep up with each other. >> it is a glimpse into what's coming, kate thank you as always for bringing that to us. coming up, a rare interview with the manager behind one of the top pension funds in the country. they have beaten the market for the past 10, 20, and 30 years. this is like a mystery guest i bet you can't guess it we'll have the details behd s coenon wning strategy next. [alarm beep] you make it through security so fast, ♪♪ the agents applaud. your travel itineraries are so well written, they're on the best seller list. and you have access to lounges that don't officially exist. that's why you rent with national, where you can skip the counter and choose any vehicle on the emerald aisle. because travel isn't a competition.

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talk about easier investing. welcome back to "the exchange"s the dow closed above 45,000, my next guest just posted a 32% return for its fund in the fiscal year it's the best year ever. joining me is jay bowen, the president and chief investment officer of bowen, haynes and company, the sole manager of the tampa firefighters and police officers pension fund and his winning strategy avoids alternative investments, like hedge funds and private investments, and focuses on fixed income security. did i get that right >> you got that right.

i'm glad you said unconditional. we view ourselves as being conventionally unconventional. >> kind of like old school. >> right >> so, i mean, i have read institutions and pension funds that could have 40% of their assets in private funds and equity, and that your dad managed your funds a couple of decades before who made the decision along the way. was it a moment in time you said we're not doing alternatives or over the years, you deflect the opportunity? >> it somewhat evolved and initially, it was kind of a situation where we're dealing with basically taxpayer money, and we wanted to really err on the side of being conservative and quality-oriented and there was just a lot of unknowns, particularly 20, 30 years ago, about that space then it became apparent about 20 years ago, that we are able to play those markets through the public marketings. one of our biggest holdings is black stone, the largest private equity fund mt.in the world.

>> that's so interesting >> from a liquidity standpoint, we don't have to delve into these corners. >> not just that, you're eating with their cooking in other words, instead of worrying about their portfolio, you know, or coinvesting in those types of accounts, you're investing in the asset manager themselves >> right and the same can be said for other -- what used to be alternatives, now, real estate, for instance, you can go into the highly liquid rit arena, and you can be in and out in seconds if you need to be, relative to how it was 20, 30 years ago. they really were alternatives, you would to own outside of the public markets, so that's a big change that's happening. >> now we're in 2024, where it's been an everything go up designed of year what do you position how do you position the portfolio? you're in the middle of your fiscal year, but basically for 2025 >> we like to look at the fund in 20-year increments. we can show 31 separate 20-year increments. >> wow. >> first one, 1974 to 1994, and then on up this reminds me, it has a

ladder, part of the '90s feel to me that was the last authentic saw plan and you had a lot of high-tech innovation in risk taking and entrepreneurship you have animal spirits coming back in and this is very important, you had a great in productivity growth. >> absolutely. >> and we have seen that the last three or four quarters. productivity is trending up, 2 1/2, 3% range, after it being very, for the last really ten years, really under the norm if that happens, that's really good for overall living standards, profits, profits margins, the economy, earnings, i think that we're headed for that era >> you're wondering why we're watching elon musk right now, we think with one of his children on his shoulders, we're going to hear from him, from vivek

ramaswamy, and mike johnson for the department of government efficiency these don't sound like matters you need to be concerned by. or maybe they are. maybe the deficit is one. >> that ties into another one of our themes i think we're going to be stunned over the next couple of years, and turns to a couple of supreme court decisions. overturning that chevron doctrine, that's an act of economic liberation, i think, and part of the reason we're bullish looking out is on the regulation side, we're going to have really significant deregulation, and it's going to be flowing from this new group that's focused on the efficiency group. >> what you're saying is, i think, going to be reassuring. we're hearing from experience, things look a little frothy. i might expect someone like you to say the same thing, and instead i'm hearing from you, a lot of optimism that maybe the stock market can continue going higher for the next, you know, i don't want to call it six months

but maybe that kind of medium to long-term period of time, despite valuations being where they are. >> we're going to normalize pre-great financial crisis, from a real growth standpoint, nominal standpoint, interest rate standpoint. >> how can that be when the population trends are what they are. >> i think this high-tech innovation is so interesting, and important, along with productivity growth that i think there's going to be dynamism introduced into the academy that we haven't seen in quite a while. a lot of new business start-ups, because of what's unfolding on the policy front, regulatory policy, tax policy i think we're december tin tinned for higher real growth and nominal growth looking out, i think we're going to have more volatility. 5 to 10% pullbacks along the way that we have seen. >> let me ask you, i want to see this, and you also do a lot of stock picking so what are the highest conviction stocks.

>> we like this fourth industrial revolution theme, and like specifically this idea of the industrial base being digitized and electrified and, companies like eaten, for instance, parker hanifan, corning, we like finding these companies that we say are industrial, technology companies disguised as industrial. they might look like they're very industrial oriented but they're very high-tech oriented in terms of helping to upgrade the grid, data centers. >> exactly >> smart city type innovations huge tail winds in that arena. and corning, of course, was the backbone of the internet revolution, and now it's looking like it's going to be the backbone of the ai. >> it's one of the great stories in corporate america. >> so that's one that we like also. >> jay, thank you so much for your time. it's a pleasure to check in with you. we hope to check back in if you're around the 20-year

basis, a maybe a year, give us time to play out the ceo of bowen, haynes and company. american airlines just upped the fourth quarter earnings, flat to positive from last year, they initially had gotten for a loss of 1 to 3%, and look at the shares, that's got them up 16 1/2% to a 52-week high. those are giving delta a united about a 5% boost. more on the other side of this break. information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up

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welcome back, house speaker johnson is set to speak alongside elon musk and vivek ramaswamy and members of congress in a couple of minutes here emily wilkins is on capitol hill, i saw you chasing them down, musk was carrying it looks like one of his kids on his shoulders. what do we expect from this announcement >> reporter: they tell us these are sort of the preliminary conversations, lawmakers who have gone in se they are kind of

in listening mode. the fact of the matter is a lot of the proposals you have seen musk and ramaswamy put forward is a high bar. the idea that they're going to cut $2 trillion in discretionary funding and the budget congress appropriates and approves is 1.7 trillion shows how difficult this is going to be. i think today is a rubber meet the road situation all the republicans i have spoken with say, yes, we want to cut government spending. yes, we want to make things more effective. what we're trying to actually hear is what is the plan what is going to actually be done and i think that's kind of the big question that remains both today, both for this presser as well as for the next two years >> and i saw there have been a couple of tweets on the topic of how much of the federal work force is working from home, emily, versus being in the office the push to bring them back into the office, i imagine, is really a push to at least utilize the real estate or if everyone can work from home from an efficiency point of view, get rid of the real estate >> reporter: exactly, and i

think we might see them come in it's interesting, i have talked with a number of lawmakers, john cornyn, susan collins, who have said we need to get federal workers back in the office five days a week, and they think that's something that could reduce the federal work force, and senator joni ernst leaving the caucus in the senate put together an entire proposal to federal buildings, how much money they are costing, and how that might be a way. you're looking at these costs. you're talking about billions, that's a lot, but it's not hundreds of billions, and it's not trillions and it's not at the level where you're going to have that impact that's what i'm hearing from a lot of lawmakers close to spending, yes, there are opportunities for cuts, for waste to be eliminated, but in terms o.f the scope and really having an impact on the debt and deficit, it's not clear at this point that they're really going to be able to get there. >> it seems as though senator ernst is emerging with a key role in a number of areas here what is her significance with

pete hegseth as well and what ends up happening on that front? >> reporter: we have seen reporting today that senator joe ernst met with hegseth, and from reporting that pete hegseth has had critical things to say about women in the military, and you heard senator ernst, she didn't lay all of her cards on the table, but she says the vetting process needs to continue, and it's clear she's not at a yes yet for hegseth, and there are concerns about his nomination, about things he said, about reports in his history, allegations of sexual assault, allegations of problems with drinking at the same point, you are seeing, while his nomination might be in trouble, you're seeing other nominations going smoothly we're covering scott bessent closely as treasury secretary, and at this point most lawmakers i've talked to see a clear path for him to get into that role. >> have not heard much on that front.

no news being good news. we'll let you get ready as this event begins in the meantime, let's check in in miami where after two years of decline, the art market is snapping back especially the last couple of weeks with crypto art basel is the test of the year, with hundreds of millions of dollars up for grabs. robert frank is there, with someone who knows where the money will be spent. welcome. >> rising stock markets, bitcoin 100,000, the mood very good in miami, joining us is john matthews, the head of private wealth management for the americas at ubs. john, thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> you talk to a lot of collectors, how are they feeling? >> i think they feel good. as just mentioned. asset prices have gone up across the board, including the virtual currencies the mood is great. we have been sponsoring art basel in miami for 22 years. we'll have over 5,000 of our

clients and guests in our lounge here, and we have the need for over ten times that amount in requests for tickets to come the mood is really good. i would also say my own scientific kind of finger in the air, kind of pulse after one day is that this is going to be a good year for the art market. >> and you advise the wealthiest clients around the world how are they feeling after the election, and looking more broadly at the investment picture, what opportunities are they seeing, how are the wealthy positioning right now for the next year ahead? >> i think they have been positioning, what the markets have done, across the board, asset classes and different sectors, interest rates have stabilized, we don't anticipate those going up any longer. m&a is roaring back, that's good for the marketings you've got this longevity crisis, people are living longer the great wealth transfer is happening before our eyes. you couple that with this sort of pro business feel of the market, with what's just happened in the recent election. people are getting investing, and you know, there's been talk about all of this cash on the

sidelines for the last couple of years, it's being deployed and there's still a lot of cash on the sidelines, but that cash is being deployed. we see it with our own clients. >> where is it being deployed right now? is it into developed market equities, into private equities? the high net worth family office space, where are they putting new money right now? >> let's talk about the public markets. u.s. is the place to be. markets resilient strong, at the owned ft day, the most liquidity, best liquidity and best fundamentals are in the u.s. with that said, many clients are looking to the alternative space. if you look at endowments and foundations up 40 to 50% are in alternatives, our most recent global family office report and our family offices in the united states are allocating up to 35% of their assets and alternates and we're seeing wealthy

individual inve stors up to 15 t 20%. >> private equities, venture capital, direct deals, one of the things that surprises me, private equity has not been a good investment, certainly if you look at returns over the past couple of years there's not a lot of ipos, not a lot of exit strategies debt is very expensive why is private equity, particularly direct deals, so popular with the very wealthy investors right now, given that it hasn't been a great couple of years. >> i think they think of it as an opportunity right now as we look at the markets, we feel like they're fully valid, but if we look at the private equity markets, they're down about 14%. we think there's some excess returns there. many investors are in it for the long run so then the liquidity, you know, premium here is worth the wait for them >> and then in terms of you mentioned the next generation, we hear $84 trillion about to pass to the next generation.

do you think that that is really going to happen? is it happening? >> it's happening right now. we're in the third inning of a nine inning ball game that's going to extra innings in the transfer not only 84 trillion the next 40 years, we have 25 trillion happening in the next -- >> sorry to interrupt. we're just going to flip over to capitol hill if we can, and, john, thank you so much for your insights, fascinating what he said about equities. speaker johnson is making remarks on capitol hill. let's listen in. >> the size and scope of the government, that it has grown too large. let me be frank about that government is too big, it does too many things and does nothing well the taxpayers deserve better they deserve a more responsive government, a more efficient government, leaner and focused on its prime object ives and that's the opportunity we have here now we believe it's a historic moment for the country and these gentlemen are going to help

navigate elon and vivek don't need much of an introduction both gentlemen have run successful organizations, they're innovators and forward thinkers that's what we need right now, so what you're going to have today is first is a meeting that we'll have here with decision make makers key figures in the republican house and senate who are chairs of committees of jurisdiction who deal with the money and financing of government and the structure of government. we'll have chairs of the new doge caucuses that have been set up in the senate and house, and after that, we'll proceed to the congressional auditorium where all of the senate republicans and house republicans have been invited and i think many of them will gather for this discussion. so there won't be a lot of detail for the press today, and that's by design because this is a brainstorming session. it is the first, again, as i said, of a long series of meetings that will be held, as we're laying the ground work for the new year and the new congress, and you're going to see a lot of change around here and in washington, and in the way things are run

we need to make government more efficient, and that is what this whole objective is it's what the doge effort will be out and you're going to see a bicameral cooperation, and it will be, by the way, bipartisan over the last 24/48 hours, you've seen a number of our democratic colleagues in said, me up. i want to be a part of this. we welcome that. it should be a bipartisan effort i think we will do great things for the country. one or two questions >> without cutting medicare and medicaid will this meeting be an opportunity to set a more realistic number do you support clawing back federal funds that the biden administration is pushing out in its final days, including to a competitor