we will show you his -- listen carefully -- a cryptic post, not a crypto post, but it could have been a cryptic crypto post, but it wasn't, just cryptic. friday, december 6th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. oh good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin it's friday. we're feeling it >> today >> i-yay. >> i better not do that. >> i don't always know what day it is. i always know when it is friday. let's see what is happening with

the u.s. equity futures at the this hour. yesterday, you saw the worst day since the middle of november down over half a percentage point. there are modest declines once again. dow futures indicated off by about 21 points. the s&p down by 5 points the nasdaq off by 14 it does come after the dow was down by 248 points yesterday, the s&p and the nasdaq dipped by less than .2 of 1% so you're talking about very modest declines. we're just used to markets going up just about every day. look at what's been happening with treasury yields right now, the ten-year is yielding below where it was yesterday at this time, 4.18 two-year at 4.17 and bitcoin trading back below $100,000 after pushing above that handily yesterday. >> 92,000 yesterday. >> back at 98. >> it was down -- it was 103 at one point. all the way down to -- yeah, so. >> a lot of volatility now to the latest we want to bring you right now on the murder of that unitedhealthcare executive in manhattan this week

police releasing these photos from a hostel on the upper west side of a person they say is, quote, wanted for questioning in connection with the shooting comes a day after they released these photos of a masked man taken in starbucks in midtown prior to the shooting. those are among the leads at the moment that the investigators are chasing into the man who fatally shot brian thompson. police investigating the three words etched in the bullet casings found at the murder scene. those words, delay, deny and depose and they echo a phrase commonly used to describe insurer tactics to avoid paying claims and the name of a book that describes exactly how to do that. >> they have a water bottle and a burner phone and -- >> they have a lot of evidence. >> and they did say that possible on some of the unfired rounds there could be even fingerprints or dna. it is the lead story, one of the lead stories in "the journal,"

dozens of security chiefs from u.s. companies, large u.s. companies they're all scrambling >> this is literally as deal book was going on. >> yeah. >> the whole conversation that afternoon. >> threats against executives, big business, corporate america, you know, fueled by social media and the fraught political environment. i mean, i hope it doesn't become a thing. >> there have been a flurry of stories on x, people posting the troubles they had with their insurance companies who have denied them insurance on some of these issues i would say this points a lot of this evidence would point to the idea that this is a -- someone who is very frustrated by their claims getting denied. if you were trying to sway people, police say this is evidence that you would put out to throw them off the scent too. there are huge questions of corporate america about the political climate, the environmental climate in this country and safety for a lot of

them. >> you can pick your thing that you're mad about, if you're very populist and antibig business, it could be vaccinemakers, it could be price gougers, it could be -- >> i don't think we should give anybody any choices. >> i think they make up their own minds. we're not going to be the -- think about how many, especially given the way corporations have been, had a target on their back in terms of they do all these horrible things and i can give you ten industries i have a bad -- >> i think it is best not to >> okay. >> honestly, we're talking about did -- >> i'll give you the top ten businesses people think are really, you know, either gouging or unfair or -- i mean, anybody who is a little crazy could have his own vendetta against something. >> and i think it is -- that they should -- they want to have -- let's keep that vendetta in somebody's head. >> in the meantime, businesses reacting to some of these things anthem blue cross blue shield is walking back a policy change

that drew attention online after wednesday's shooting last month, anthem decided to limit reimbursements for anesthesia during surgeries and medical procedures, would have reimbursed doctors on time limits determined by the insurer, not the doctor. that change triggered outrage from the american society of anesthesiologists but went largely unnoticed until wednesday. in a statement to nbc news, anthem said there has been significant widespread misinformation about an update to our anesthesia policy as a result, we have decided to not proceed with this policy change a spokesperson said the change was designed to clarify the appropriateness of anesthesia consistent with well established clinical guidelines and safeguard against potential anesthesia provider over billing. before the picy reversal, the states of new york and connecticut had already stepped in to stop the plan from going into effect. >> you could also talk about this in ways of -- i can see how

it is ripe for maybe abuse because -- self-referrals -- can you imagine if there is something taking a little longer during a operation. >> and they decide to cut off the anesthesia >> that's got to be -- that would not be allowed >> it is the constant battle between doctors and insurance companies, where doctors say you need this, the insurance company says no. >> referrals too i don't know if you can do that anymore, they used to own the testing facilities, all these unnecessary -- >> it is a complicated healthcare systems a lot of pressures are coming to bear on it we'll see more of this in the next year. there are new picks from the incoming trump administration out yesterday. my friend, david perdue, he's chosen david perdue, congratulations, to be his ambassador to china. is there a more important ambassadorship, i don't know if there is. >> during this time? probably not two largest economies in the

world. >> senator perdue, ambassador to be perdue served in the senate from 2015 to 2021. before that, a ceo of several big companies like reebok and dollar general >> on this pick, it is interesting because there are so many china hawks and nominations he's already put forward including marco rubio for secretary of state but this is somebody who -- >> he's dealt with china. >> he's dealt with china, he understands china and is going to be a different force in that cabinet. it is interesting. you talk about the people who are coming out and arguing their points in front of president trump and -- >> where do you put him on -- if you put rubio as a hawk over, i don't know, over here, where in -- i don't know who you think a dove is -- >> i have no -- >> i don't know if i would call him a dove, but somebody looking for ways to work with china. >> he's a great -- i mean, i know him very well, play golf with him all the time, great

golfer, by the way, hits it so far, but maybe he'll start not being quite as good, but i can tell you that if you look at recent history, very loyal to president trump, because, you know, the georgia election, it all came down to that election on who was going to control the senate and there are is some that said maybe president trump didn't go hard enough for purdue at that point. and then, if you recall, perdue challenged a very popular georgia governor, brian kemp, for the governorship and was unsuccessful >> but very unusual. has there ever been a time where we had an ambassador whose job was to be genuinely combative, meaning you go live in the country and your job is effectively not to have relations. >> whoever we put in, not david in particular? >> i would assume that when you are assigning somebody to be an ambassador, part of the role has to be we -- at the minimum we

want you to be the guy who is going to have some kind of diplomatic relationship with these people, even if our policies are such that are going to make it challenging or do you look to a person to actually sort of manifest that policies and then how does that even work? >> i'm not convinced that trump wants an open confrontational relationship i think he wants to show he can work with china and he said these positive things about xi, xi said these positive things about him, and if it is all in negotiating, i'm hoping for better relationships in terms of china. i hope they can, you know, stop dumping, don't continue to do these practices that require across the board tariffs or 25% tariffs. and i think maybe, you know, perdue is the guy to be able to extract some of those concessions. that's what we can only hope should be positive should hope all this stuff happens. david sacks, trump picked this

gentleman, to be the white house a.i. and crypto czar i didn't know there was such a thing. >> a new position. >> in the announcement, trump said sacks will guide policy for those two areas, critical to the future of american competitiveness. sacks was a co-founder of paypal where he worked with elon musk and peter teal he later founded software company yammer, which was acquired by microsoft. he's known more recently as co-host of the "all in" podcast which feature s hapatiyah. you would have to say he was outspoken. >> a big fund-raiser too. >> big fund-raiser and outspoken in his support for -- but also very critical of the biden administration and kamala harris >> meantime, the doge team receiving an enthusiastic response from congressional republicans yesterday on capitol hill musk saying the following, he said, i think we just need to make sure we spend the public's

money well musk has set a target of $2 trillion in savings, has not specified a time period what that would cover doge co-leader vivek ramaswamy meeting separately with a group of republicans, including thom tillis who said afterwards they discussed actions that trump administration could take on its own. rather than those that require legislation. senator joni ernst established a senate doge caucus now to work with the group and house republicans have formed a similar group so we're going to see how this could play out. i think in some cases they're being told figure out what you can on your own, in other cases make some recommendations. in the 8:00 hour, we're going to talk to florida congressman aaron bean about how he imagines this process may take place. coming up, the countdown to the jobs report is on. we'll talk expectations. remember what happened last time like 12,000 jobs big disappointment last time maybe it was the hurricane

maybe it was the boeing strike we'll see whether there is a big rebound today, expectations for that maybe we'll get revisions from last month but it could have an effect on the fed and the markets. later, roaring kitty sparking a mini meme stock rally yesterday. we have done it before the stock comes down a little. he seems to do stuff like this interesting way to do things we'll have a cryptic postulator this hour. "squawk box" will be right back.

it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. because when your people work better, everything works better. so, let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice.

what if your mobile network wasn't just built i to work out here...? ...but was designed differently to also give you blazing fast wifi where you are most of the time? reliable 5g, plus wifi speeds up to a gig where you need it most. xfinity mobile. now xfinity internet customers can buy one line of unlimited and get one free for a year.

on today's squawk planner, it is jobs friday. forecasters now expect 214,000 jobs in november after a messy october number of just 12,000. but that could have been impacted by the boeing strike and hurricanes economists warn that those factors could impact the november data as well and we could see revisions to the october number joining us now with more on the markets, bill egan, chief investment officer for the absolute return fixed income group at jpmorgan asset management i threw out the notes because of our conversation during the break because of what -- some of the things you intimated to us

about your opinion on inflation. because it matters so much and we have talked about it so much 2% the last mile, getting there. >> good luck good luck. >> then they got -- they're still cutting they're already cutting. so that makes it -- >> you know what's funny, if you were an alien and got dropped out from space and said okay we're growing at 3.2%, grew at 3%, inflation dropped to the mid 2s, now turning up to the 3s, roaring kitty moving meme stocks as i heard you say before, volatility at the lows, risk premiums for all forms of fixing at the tightest levels not in the last five years, but ever, you would say, okay, i guess the fed is tightening, right? no, they're going the other way, cutting into an accelerating economy with inflation turning up and i look at that and kind of reminds you of when they started tightening they waited until inflation was at 6%, 7% and now they're easing

into this environment that is pretty favorable and the question i ask myself is, like, all i hear, you hear this all the time, everybody says rates are restrictive. why? why are rates restrictive? everything i just pointed to is that restrictive? >> we asked the same -- >> housing market is doing very well mortgage originations are turning up all this stuff i own a couple of small businesses which as we talked about, and the inflation pressures particularly as it relates to employment, services and shelter, are not only sticky, but ing the wrong way. i don't know why this doesn't make it into the consideration. >> for a while, the ten-year was doing what you -- what it was supposed to do why -- is this a global thing now? >> it is fascinating after the new administration was elected, treasuries reacted and the ten-year went over 4.5%. and usually the initial reaction markets is usually the correct one. since they announced a treasury secretary they believe will be bullish for bonds, i don't quite understand that. but the economic data since the

trump administration got elected has been nothing but strong. it has been beating expectations pretty much everywhere with the exception of a slight miss on the services index the other day. >> we -- in the past, i got a couple other things. they're going to move the goal post, the only way they have to they're not getting -- they're not getting it anytime soon. >> neutral rate is way higher. >> on a more long-term and just sort of a worrisome issue we had grant on -- >> deficit. >> when you have a 40-year once in a lifetime bull market in bonds, does it end with this little whimper of inflation? or do you have -- his viewpoint was you're going to have multiyear bear market in bonds which would imply higher inflation. >> let's look at it this way when you look at the five-year and three-year return on the

aggregate bond, people forget they're negative, you lost money for five years in bonds. we're talking about an asset class you haven't made money and everyone is excited about it all the time i'm a return manager i look at things objectively i need to produce positive returns regardless of what markets are doing. that forces you to focus on the math bonds are math pretty simple. when interest rates go up, you lose a lot of money. >> this cycle, after that bull market, is 5% fed funds going to be the high? is that going to do it that doesn't -- it seems like we could go back there. if we are going back there, it would be easier -- we're going back there from a lower number, they're going to keep cutting and we have to get -- >> i think they need to reconsider this cutting path they're on given the data. they say they're paying attention to the data, data dependent. >> they always say that. >> and then they keep cutting. so as far as next week, what are they going to do they should stop because maybe the neutral rate is around here. who knows based on what i'm seeing in the economy and

inflation. i couldn't say no. but i think -- >> you would be lucky if the neutral rate is here. >> the way i look at it, another thing that concerns me, no one talks about that much, the deficit. if i were to sell you a bond, if i owned a company that took in $4.4 billion in revenues and spent $6.3 billion, would you buy my bonds >> no. >> of course not that's called bankruptcy, right? what do you call a country that takes in $4.4 trillion in revenue and spends $6.3 trillion call that the usa, right they fill the hole with what, treasury issuance, up to $37 trillion now you got to consider that for the long end. >> where are these -- what would be a good name where are these vigilantes >> i think they'll come out at some point i'm not sitting here being mr. bearish on bonds all i'm saying is if you're going to be objective in bond land, right, focus on areas where you know you can make money pretty safely. right now, the yield curve is

inverted why do i want to get paid less to lend this overlevered government for longer? >> what would you yield on the ten year would you need to buy >> depends where cash yields are. >> where cash yields are right now, what would you need >> way more than this. >> 5.5 >> in the 5s, to be honest maybe high 4s. i need to be getting paid a reasonable amount more than i get paid overnight >> then the options start going -- they're going to tell us -- >> we had a terrible one -- remember two weeks ago, a terrible 20-year auction, 468, and tailed that told me something i'm, like, wow, not a lot of interest out there, is there people are getting nervous about the long end of the yield curve. and, you know, i don't see what is going to reverse that in the near term. by the way, all the things i'm talking about are good for risk. >> so -- >> they're not bad for stocks, not bad for convertibles and

other areas of the market. >> if the fed -- i don't think there is any way they're not going to raise rates at the next meeting. >> cut. >> not cut rates at the next meeting. they have made the market kind of set on this. >> i think like 30% they do nothing now or something like that. >> if they -- let's say if they cut 25 basis points this time and stand pat for -- >> hawkish cut,ia yeah. >> would that make you feel better about -- >> it probably would, a little bit. now that i'm feeling terrible about it when you have such an inversion in the yield curve, and other things, by the way, for instance, did you know you can get paid almost as much to own t-bills as junk-rated bonds? that's not right >> but if all that's true, when do you think the vigilantes, you say they will arrive at some point. when do you think that actually happens? >> it always takes way longer than you think i think the issue you have now that you didn't have, like, ten years ago, is the deficit. and the unsustainable path that

spending is on and the sheer amount of debt we need. >> do you think we'll feel it when we get to the tax discussion next year >> i think in the next 12 mom not saying the long end will be unhinged you're going to need to force a term premium on this market at some point you walk into a bank, you don't expect them to lend you money for ten years at less than the rate they lend it to you for a month. why is it that way with the overlevered u.s. treasury, right? you got monstrous deficits and more issuance coming, and, again, it is -- it just gets me nervous. the sheer amount that -- the lack of attention being paid to a lot of things going on right now and everyone is whistling through the graveyard. i need to pay attention to stuff. as a absolute return manager, i need to focus on where returns are available in the fixed income market and where the math works. where the math works is on the short end of the yield curve another place that is interesting is you know what has never been cheaper in history to ensure a portfolio, corporate bond portfolio than right now. so cheap let's say you want a beachfront

house. someone says i'll sell you hurricane insurance for a thousand dollars a year, you would be like, done. that's how cheap it is to ensure against loss because nobody cares. >> i got four tires, oil change, rear brake pads, i think it was like $3600 >> oh, my god, no! >> yeah. >> you got a deal. >> i got to give you my -- >> you know what four new hankook tires cost >> you can go with off brand, equally as good and pay a third of the price honestly >> we need you back here more often. >> time to fix your car. >> it is expensive the cost of parts, things like you mentioned brake pads, they have skyrocketed calipers, anything with steel or aluminum in it has gone straight up in price. any type of part, even parts that used to be reasonable, even ones imported -- >> i use a horn.

i have replaced many a horn. >> a horn can get you in trouble though. >> horns will wear out if you leave it on. you got to do staccato. >> a lot of pressure on the electrical system too. >> it is >> no, i'm kidding >> we need to have you back and talk about gyms. >> 100%. >> gyms too. >> and those memberships keep going up in price. >> ithis everything it is just -- >> that's why owning a small business is helpful. you get a real look at where pressures are. >> thank you when we come back, a lot more on "squawk. the stocks that jumped after a crypto post or a cryptic post maybe is a better way to say it, maybe it was a crypto post keith gill, the trader known as roaring kitty. and then later, mayor eric adams gngo isoi tjoin us. we're going to talk about the manhunt for the killer of the unitedhealthcare executive in manhattan this week with the mayor of the city.

"squawk box" coming right back

>> welcome back to "squawk box. shares of gamestop halted for volatility yesterday they jumped by as much as 14% after a cryptic post on x from keenly keith gill, the trader known as roaring kitty. he posted a mock-up of a "time" magazine cover featuring a blank computer screen with a media player that resembles youtube. it appears to be an edited version of the 2006 issue of "time" when the magazine named you, meaning all of us, person of the year with the mirror. that was the one with the

mirror with the lack of context, traders made their own assumptions. shares of unity software jumped. ticker u so did the shares of clear secure inc., ticker you, before eventually all closing lower welcome to the world of i don't know what. >> roaring kitty. >> presented without comment i don't know what the comment is supposed to be >> yeah. >> it would be great if you could do that. is he allowed to buy a bunch of calls and do that? >> yes, i'm sure you mean, on those stocks? i don't know, sure >> wouldn't that be good to do that if you bought 100 calls -- >> if you're the s.e.c., what would be your claim? >> right he's not trading on insider information. >> that's why it is such a great thing for him, you know. it is so -- it is like nebulous. seems like more than martha

stewart did. >> there are few people who have been able to do that elon musk being one of them. every time he mentioned dogecoin, it would skyrocket. >> dogecoin would, not tesla. >> there are few people able to do that just by letting the world know they're thinking about something and everybody is interested and runs to it. those are the only people i can think of. >> $250 billion. >> no, but there is only a couple of people in the world who have that level of influence. roaring kitty is one of them when we come back, a judge has rejected boeing's guilty plea in a case related to two 737 max crashes over a dei issue. we got the details next. right now, though, as we head to a break, let's look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers deadline in five!

finished and sent. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. client wants his head bigger. wow, fast response. sent! okay, oop! even bigger. sent. [sending swoosh, notification alert] still bigger. okay, yeah i'm not doing that— [typing noises, sending swoosh] i think it still looks good! [notification alert] oh — even bigger. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. ♪♪

data science can help address some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures, some red but nothing too significant so far a federal judge in texas rejected boeing's plea deal with the justice department in a case related to two deadly 737 max crashes. and the judge says the plea deal inappropriately tied the court's hands by imposing diversity considerations on the appointment of the outside monitor who would oversee boeing's future legal compliance this is the one i read on the front, in the b section. i immediately had to go and -- i still don't really understand it just what does diversity concerns have to do with the boeing settlement? the judge said it is in the interest of justice that the monitor selection is done based solely on competency

what a concept the judge ordered both sides to update him within 30 days on how they plan to proceed a doj spokeswoman said the prosecutors were reviewing the decision boeing did not comment >> who even put that in? >> that's what i said. we heard it has gone out of control. that's why there is some pushback in the boeing settlement on the two crashes where all those people died. i don't understand what -- what does that have to -- i don't know. congress slooks looking inta trading platform that is looking to list publicly eamon javers joins us now with the latest installment of the javers files good morning. >> good morning. cnbc has exclusively obtained a letter from the house select committee on the chinese communist party directed to the u.s. ceo of trading platform webo financial criticizing the

company's alleged close ownership ties and influence from the chinese communist party. the letter addressed to ceo anthony denier at a wall street office address suggested the firm which is a competitor to platforms like robinhood is hiding the ties from investors head of a potential $7.3 billion ipo by spac that it announced earlier this year. the letter says while webull has restructured to create the impression that it is no longer a prc company, it appears to remain deeply intertwined with prc entities including fumi technology and hunan weibu the letter alleges that webull's alleged ties to the communist party raise serious questions about the security of u.s. user data and about webull's willingness and ability to comply with u.s. regulations regarding transparency and fair trading standards and therefore about the risks webull poses to the u.s. financial market. and it suggests that the company

has taken steps to obfuscate its china connection, such as recently moving staff to florida and a potential failure to notify the u.s. regulator fin ra about a material relationship with the communist party the committee i'm told has already reached out to u.s. regulators to talk about this deal as well we'll reach out to webull this morning to see if the company has any comment on all of this guys, back over to you >> i take it there is probably not any reason to think that this investigation, the stance on this would change with an incoming -- with a new administration incoming. >> yeah, i think the new administration would be more likely to take a very hard look at something like this you know, the committee says they want answers to a whole raft of questions including questions about whether investors' assets would be safe, if the chinese communist party takes any steps regarding those assets and also information about where investor information is ending up, if any of that information is going to china.

so, you know, this is going to be something the company has to deal with. they have taken some steps here to create some distance between themselves and the chinese government, we'll see, you know in this new regulatory climate where that lands. >> how many customers does this company have >> that's a good question. it is a competitor to robinhood in terms of a trading platform i don't have the total customer number though. >> eamon, thank you. coming up on "squawk," the countdown to the employment report here on a friday. jobs friday. it is on we're going to talk jobs in america and we'll do that straight ahead

at t. rowe price, we help advisors move forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

♪ with verizon, trade in any phone, any condition. for a limited time, get iphone 16 pro, on us. and ipad and apple watch series 10. all three on us. only on verizon.

welcome back to "squawk box. as we head into the final weeks of the biden presidency, the national urban league is reflecting on the impact of the administration has had now on the economy, jobs and inflation. joining us is marc morial, the

president of the national urban league and the former mayor of new orleans. so, here we are, at the end of this administration, and i am curious how you would grade what has happened here, and how you would grade it in the context of this past election and what maybe americans think has actually happened in this economy. >> great to be with you. and, you know, andrew, on "squawk box," many say let's look at the numbers. let's look at the numbers. the unemployment rate was 6% the day joe biden took office. 6.4% now it is 4.1% the black unemployment rate was 9.3% the day he took office. now it is 5.7% the s&p was at 3,700 now it is at 6,000 the dow jones was at 30. now it is at 45,000. important thing to understand as we mark this moment is what do the numbers say?

i think the second thing that is important to the biden administration, i think they did not a good job telling the american people that they had put in place a long-term blueprint for the american economy to restore ing to invest in roads, bridges, water systems, infrastructure, and to create a new type of energy economy and i think americans responded -- it is the third election in a row that americans sacked the incumbent party and that's the first time this has happened since 1800. so i think the trump victory is also fueled by an antiincumbency he was able to put the biden administration in the posture of being the representative of the status quo and what the harris and biden could have done better was prosecute his time in office, particularly his last year in office, when thousands of people, millions of people died, number one, and the

economy went into recession because of covid i think some of it had to do with the mismanagement of covid. we need to note the numbers so that a year from now or two years from now, when we evaluate the trump administration's economic policies, we look at what it means for unemployment, what it means for black unemployment, what it means for the stock markets, what it means for the american growth rate these are the barometers by which we should measure the economic -- >> are you surprised by the overall -- and i use the word giddiness, that i think if you were to -- if we were to talk to the top 500,000 ceos in america that they appear to have about what is going to happen in this country as it relates to business and the economy, and maybe as it relates to jobs as well >> look, i think there is excitement because there have been a lot of commitments made to american businesses

the question is, is what is best for wall street going to be what is best for main street? and that remains to be seen. for example, if you talk about cutting the budget, but at the same time you do deficit creating tax cuts, then what is the point? all you've done is cut the budget to pay for a redistribution of resources to another segment of the american population this is what is important. if people want to talk about the deficit, you can't talk about the deficit without talking about the tax side and the spending side. so, both have to be talked to in tandem, together i remember the reagan years and i regular the first trump tax cuts the first trump tax cuts, the argument was they would not be inflationary rather, they would not increase the deficit because of dynamic scoring. that never came to pass. so we got to look at all of this in tandem.

i understand business may be exciting, but where i think about the american economy, i think about wall street, but i also think about main street and in this main street, where the pain of inflation, relative to housing, and many household items, the concern that some of these cuts will directly impact the locked out, the left out, the working class, that i'm concerned about. it is going to be interesting to see how all the promises get put into a package of governing and legislation by the incoming administration >> marc, the election, there was -- i mean, trump had an increase in -- across every demo every demographic of the population the giddiness andrew is talking about is almost a collective sigh of relief from the overregulation and the cost of living increases and i just -- i can't believe you're still using the that they didn't sell it well enough as if

americans aren't smart enough to know how the economy is affecting them the election is over now that's not helping anymore. >> you and i may not agree on this >> we don't. >> selling their own program, they didn't do a good job selling their own numbers. let me tell you where the inflation comes from. >> people know how they feel, marc that's all >> yeah, but, joe, you got to understand what i am saying. where is inflation coming from if this administration wants to address inflation, do something about housing. put a plan on the table to increase the supply of housing i argued with the biden administration to do the same. they sought to do it, they couldn't do it, congress blocked it, they could not find another way to do it so i put that on the table i just feel strongly -- this is a close election less than 1.5% so, talks of, if you will, landslides and mandates, it is just not the case. we're still a country that thinks very differently about a

number of things and i hope that president trump, president-elect trump will send a message on day one that he wants to be a president for all americans. >> marc, it is great to see you this morning we appreciate it it is an important conversation. i'm sure we'll continue it with you and hope to see you in person soon. >> thank you >> thank you when we come back, a lot more of "squawk box. we got the biggest movers coming up and then, of course, the big number just a little bit later, two big hours ahead right here on this friday morning >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

shares of ulta beauty are

rising earnings of $5.14 beat the expectations of $4.54. revenue also beat estimates in and the company raised its full year outlook ulta says it expects holiday quarter comp sales to decline by low single digits. you see the stock up by 12% this morning. shares of lululemon rising as well beating the street's sxeg expectations of it.$2.69 the ceo saying that the company is pleased with the start to the holiday season, but it did take a cautious tone about the current quarter outlook warning that there are still large volume weeks to come that stock right now up by 9%. and mcdonald's on "squawk on the street" at 9:30 eastern time. coming up, companies ramping up security now for executives that's the big conversation after the murder of a

unitedhealthcare ceo in manhattan. we'll talk to a risk management expert next. you're going to not miss that. and later, a big conversati wh e w onitthneyork mayor, eric adams. he's going to bring us the latest information on the manhunt for the killer and so much more. "squawk box" coming right back what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. ♪ with verizon, trade in any phone, any condition. for a limited time, get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence. get four on us. only on verizon.

♪ (animatronic santa) ho, ho, ho! (vo) time to move? make it easy with opendoor. sell your home in any season, for any reason. (animatronic santa) look at me! i am festive! (vo) start your move at opendoor.com oh, we got a weathertech gift card! weathertech is the perfect gift for everyone. may i? (laughs) laser measured floorliners protect carpet in the front and second row. cargo liner protects the rear. the side window deflector offers more protection. my turn! the sinkmat contains spills in cabinets. something for you too, buddy!

pets eat safely with the non-toxic pet feeding system. find these american made gifts or get a gift card instantly at wt.com. experience the art of high pressure find these american made gifts brewed coffee and espresso with the l'or barista system. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. for a satisfying moment unlike any other.

all right, welcome back, everybody. more developments in the murder of unitedhealthcare ceo brian thompson in new york city earlier this week. police releasing these photos from a hostel on the upper west side of a person they say is wanted for questioning in connection with the shooting joining us right now to discuss the security implications for corporate america, we want to welcome dave commondot, former

boeing vice president chief security officer dave, thank you for being with us this morning. it has been really frightening watching the pictures and the videos that have been so widespread about what happened here in new york city. and i know you were involved in a call that lots of security officers took place in afterwards you can't reveal what happened on that call but maybe you can speak to how corporate america is feeling right now in the wake of this. >> well, thank you, becky. and thank you for having me this morning. yeah, corporate security is obviously on guard right now this is a low frequency, high impact event and it is clearly got ceos and boards of large corporations around the country and around the world quite concerned with their executive protection programs and many of my colleagues this week are in those types of discussions, ceos and boards, talking about programs that they have in place.

>> are the programs that are in place today effective? and what's necessary, you think to be guarding people who are in high profile positions >> well, executive protection programs are very personalized for company. every company in the united states has its own culture, and within that culture is a security culture there are some companies that are very proactive security-wise, and they have very robust executive security programs other companies, the culture is more resistant to that type of service, and so it's more difficult to provide those types of capabilities when you're working in that environment. so in general, i would say those companies that have strong programs are still evaluating work they do today those companies that may have a culture that's a little bit more resistant to security, i think they're probably reassessing that position. >> why don't we talk about where you think we stand in the culture today?

are there more threats is it a more hostile environment? we've seen political tensions that have risen obviously. what do you see in terms of the threats to corporate america >> yeah. i think that's a very fair statement. when you look at threats both from internally within a company, many work forces are -- i use the term energized there's layoffs ongoing right now. there's pressure within the work force. so you've got an employee population at times that feels under pressure that creates internal risk, and then clearly companies that produce products or provide services that create emotion with their users can drive risk. the use of social media has driven those types of threats. we've seen some really, really unfortunate comments on social media about what happened to mr. thompson this week, and so social media gives folks a forum to really waste their opinions on things, and the challenge

within corporate security is trying to determine which one of those threats really come with intent and capability. so you're really trying to break the needle from the hay stack. >> but that's the big question i think right now. if you are the leader of a company, ceo, cfo. i don't know how far down the title rank you want to go, and there's the question, should you be walking around with security? should there be somebody with you when you travel? i mean, i think those are the big questions. some ompanies obviously assign security at key provisions and other things like that others don't i actually went on a walk with a ceo about three weeks ago, and i realized that there were two guys actually, like, 30 feet behind us and i said, are those guys -- are those guys with us and he said, yeah. and i -- i was surprised to be honest with you because i didn't think this individual needed security at all. >> yes, they do. >> no, no, but then there are -- then there's other people who i

know who i actually think probably do need security or i would think they should have security, and they don't have any, and so there's a sort of interesting sort of juxtaposition. this fellow said, look it's an insurance policy given what's going on, that's, you know -- >> now i'm dying to know who this is. >> for this larger insurance piece. >> somebody that used to help this guy, it was shock that he came back here alone i mean, it is shocking. >> so dave, and i know -- it's a little bit like asking a barber whether you need a haircut, bought what point do you say to yourself, you're getting threats either by email or twitter or other avenues, and how seriously you're supposed to take that i mean, i think that is sort of the fundamental question. >> yeah, and andrew, it's a great question, and it's one that corporations work on every day. i think the key here is if you have a solid protective

intelligence program where you are constantly ing threats that are coming into your company, both to your employee base, your executives, threats made against your company reputation if you are able to do that well, then you are able to separate out those threats that really come with some intent. >> but dave, how do you do that? how do you track it down because is it, like, you literally chase down everybody who makes a threat on twitter to figure out if they have means to a gun, whether they would be -- whether they're really unhinged? whether they say this all the time how do you tell? >> well, there are many tools that corporate america uses today to gather those threats, and then those protective intelligence teams look at that body of threats coming in, and when they feel comfortable with something, they see something that appears to be outside of just normal noise, many companies hire third-party risk assessment professionals, people that have a background in threat assessment

they understand the psychology of threateners, and they have those people either on their staffs or on retainer to further look into those types of threats and make a determination hey, this is something we need to take to law enforcement we have great concern about it, or we know that we're going to be in an area where this threatener lives and so we have to make sure we provide physical protection with our principal when he or she is out on their business day >> dave, thank you for your time today. >> thank you okay it is just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc we've got a lot going on i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick, and today's the big day. >> it is >> jobs day. jobs friday. >> it doesn't feel quite as big. the election is over we're about 90 minutes over from the big number of the morning, the november jobs report it doesn't matter for the fed i guess. the fed is watching the numbers carefully. >> it's huge. >> i know. well, for you it's huge.

>> did you see the gentlemen from jpmorgan on earlier >> i did, yeah steve esman has more we're doing the right thing with rates? >> i think up to a point up to a point. >> was that 75 basis points a ago? >> i don't think so. i don't think so, but we can talk about that, and i think there are reasonable arguments on both sides, but for the second month in a row, there's going to be a whole lot of parsing going on when it comes to the jobs report a rebound is expected from hurricane strikes. this will be an intense effort to figure out the real strength of the job market and the considerable distortions that are out there. here's what we're looking for. 214,000 is the estimate consensus on wall street, and a big bounce back from that 12,000 disappointment in october. up 4.2%, unemployment. with the fed's inflation concern focus more on wages than the number of people employed, there

will be a 3.9% year of year with that 0.3% comes in as many as 80,000 or even 100,000 jobs come back, just as the hurricane and the strike rebound before those troubles came along in october. it was clear the job market was weakening from a monthly average, more than 200,000 that's on the left side of your screen, and then think about those numbers, just to the right of nose those numbers and takint 80 leaves around 150, that old average we're talking about. anything in that zone would mean the job market is chugging along at a slower, but still decent pace the focus of the fed of course, is going to be on the trend. the city believe that quote, weaker november employmentship we expect to be larger and faster and currently priced by markets. another ing factor, seasonal adjustments expect a lot of hiring this time of year, but reports from retailers are, it was a big holiday hiring season, in part, because it was

short. the extension is the about absence of a clear cut maybe they pause for a bit. >> you heard all the reasons the guy said that it doesn't look like we're in restrictive territory. >> i know that's a top down approach and i take a more bottom up approach to it, joe, and what has changed so much from before the pandemic that now our neutral rate is 450 or higher i just can't get there i can't get there. i can really imagine that if you think, all right >> what about in the 80s or 90s? 7% >> then you kind of get rid of all of the -- the kind of progress we have had on lower inflation. >> you're saying it's different this time then that we have permanently lower, neutral rates. >> yes i think that's a little bit unfair in the sense that it's been different over a period of a couple of decades.

look at a long-term chart of the ten-year are you going to argue the 40-year market bond is over? maybe it is. >> the chance that we end up having to go back up, i don't think it's zero. >> his point, don -- >> his bottoms up point was on inflation. he owns a couple of small businesses and from the inflation, the pressure is on wages. he said housing and other things that come through, but all the components, we were headed down to 2%, but now we're swinging back up from 2.5%. that was his point >> let me grant that i don't want to be in this position to be the one guy who sort of supports this. >> i'm just asking questions >> a guy like waller who is not, i think, a died in the wool dove i think he's pretty balanced he's gone back and forth he says even at a rate after we cut, we're still restrictive in putting downward pressure on

inflation, and that comes with this bottom of up approach of saying, what's really changing can you tell me the neutral rate is 4.25% it's probably to me more like 3%. >> they say we got to go. >> it's a huge debate, and i can see both sides of it >> i'll tell you this. someone asked me for a great rest kaunt in restaurant in boston they're all gone, but i looked it up. one of the best restaurants in boston is called -- >> steve liesman >> how did you know? >> i've heard of it, and everywhere around the country somebody sees a moon custard thing. they tell me about it. >> it's such a good name for a band. >> it's a cool name. i told myself when i was 18, i was going to name that >> pirates didn't like that. >> my first single is out. >> pirates didn't like it when the moon was out, so they cursed the moon >> they cursed the moon. they were trying to get the ships to hit a reef so they lit

a fire on the beach. and the ship thought it was the light. >> but if the moon was out, they would know. >> they would cuss the moon. >> i think it's on stewart street. >> there is a moon cusser. >> the producers are dying they have been begging us to go, and then we had this very important aside that we had to get to it is valuable knowledge something i've learned today thank you. >> i try >> that's a pretty cool name for a band. >> it is we're going to talk more about the economic of taylor swift as she wraps up her eras tour, and docusign, and how a.i. is using econtracts "squawk box" will be right back.

your clients look to you. you look to t. rowe price. ♪♪ because we stay agile...

actively managing investments to uncover opportunities... and build etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. ♪♪ better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

taylor swift is wrapping up her record-breaking eras tour this weekend in vancouver. the tour lasted over a year with 149 shows across five continents earning over a billion dollars and impacting the global economy in many ways let's dive into the swift-enomics of this. we have cara reynolds, the chair of economics and even more so, she's a professor of an actual course called swift-enomics, which is on the economics of taylor swift, and it may be too late, professor, but peacock has a great big four-part episodic documentary called "the swift effect" that we should have had -- i think that you should have been part of that or were you part of it >> i wasn't part of it, but i'll put it on my syllabus for next semester for sure.

>> and it's i think, two episodes are out two more are coming in january it is probably a big enough phenomenon to justify you actually having a course because we're ing about not just, you know, what the swift camp was able to generate for itself, but every city of the hotels, the restaurants, the ubers, there's a huge ripple effect that maybe people don't understand >> that's in the first 20 cities that she went to, there was about a $5 billion effect of direct spending, especially in the hospitality sector on average, people are going to the concerts and they spend about $1,500 not just on the tickets, but it's on the outfits and the transportation, food personally my household's friendship bracelet material has skyrocketed. it's all across the board. >> that's the thrust of it, and

maybe they love each other the way the whole thing has happened with -- and that's almost a partnership with the nfl, professor >> yes, absolutely i mean, i hear over and over again they're super excited that their young daughters are sitting on the couch with them watching football. i think it's a great thing for families to be honest. >> and then on top of everything else, there's -- i don't know how much you talk about the change in the business model for the way movies are produced and distributed, because amc, you know, actually produced, i guess, taylor can't produce the movie, but distributed by amc cutting out a lot of middlemen you got to think a lot of stude yost weren't pleased with, that but it's a business model and it's been done with beyonce and it'll probably be done again and again and again. >> i think a lot of studios were

kind of aggravated because she met with several of them and kind of got a lot of ideas, but most of their ideas were about streaming, like, what would happen after the theater and she really wanted to create this experience for her fans that weren't able to go to the concert into the theater because part of the benefits of those concerts are the camaraderie and the other fans and that's what she wanted to create in the theater, and that's what they did with amc >> yeah. they stated an intention it's expensive it's expensive to go and to see the eras tour concert, and i think that in sort of an altruistic way, the swift people wanted every young girl or guy who wanted to see that to have that experience for $20 instead of whatever a ticket cost. i'm sure they went into the stratosphere in some cities. >> some artists thought it would

not reduce the man for going to the concert, but it didn't, right? she has enough supporters that it was the best-selling concert movie of all-time, and the highest grossed tour of all-time so they really complemented each other. >> we will tell you the ceo of amc after the pandemic, it still hasn't recovered completely, and we need theaters in my view. i love movies. i love theaters, and part of bridging the future for amc was it helped. the revenue helped we structure and push it out and it looks good -- the future looks bright now. it's amazing, professor. all based on someone who really knows how to write great music, i think. that's why it's such a phenomenon, i think. it's almost a savant, wouldn't you say? >> right, and we had this pandemic recovery, right and her tour also really helped

the hospitality sector recover in a lot of different cities so she's had this -- >> that too. >> -- dramatic impact across -- across sectors it's been noted in federal reserve board reports, right that you can't ignore the economic impact that this tour has had. >> well, you chair the economics department at a good university, and it became a course so it's pretty amazing that says a lot. professor reynolds, thanks for your time this morning. >> thank you >> appreciate it okay okay coming p next, docusign stocks surging. this after reporting strong results and raising guidance we'll speak to the company's ceo when we come back. >> announcer: time for today's aflac trivia question. who was the first person to exceed the speed of sound in flight the answer, when "squawk box" returns. aflac! health insurance does leave a gap. but aflac gives people money to help close that gap. aflac! oh! coach prime got one on the line too baby! uh huh!

see that's how you hold up a trophy. trust me. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. i hope you're hungry. i'm glad i brought my own dinner. uh huh. the global injectable drug market, including high demand glp-1 weight loss drugs, is projected to hit $800 billion by 2025. lexaria bioscience is breaking down barriers with a patented technology that enhances bloodstream absorption. and the best part? it's an oral delivery platform.

as an innovator in drug delivery, lexaria bioscience has partnered with a global pharmaceutical company. invest in the future with lexaria bioscience. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises).

hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. >> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question who was the first person to exceed the speed of sound in flight the answer, chuck yeager welcome back to "squawk box. shares of docusign surging this morning. the econtract software company reported better than expected quarterly results and raised its

full-year guidance right now allan thygesen is the ceo. we mentioned the stock, it's on a tear up about 13% just this morning so you got to be happy about that the question is now, can you keep it up, and what happens next talk about the guidance. >> yeah. no, i think it was a very strong quarter for docusign i think we executed well on all fronts we were able to raise as you noted. i think we are in a period of transformation at docusign, and the rejuvenation and you can see the green chutes forming both for our core business which has been mostly completed, and the emerging growth contribution from new channels and new products so we're really pleased with this quarter. >> so there's two very interesting things that i was noticing one is you guys are noticing a lot of a.i. now. that's clearly part of the business, but i also imagine that a.i. could challenge the business longer term how do you think about that? >> yes

well, we have been using a.i. at docusign for a long time, at least five years it's embedded in the signature product that many of you know. that's how we automatically recognize all the fields for example. we use an identity verification suite, and it's just the amazing rate of progress in a.i. that's allowed us to take on projects that we really couldn't have done, just a few years ago. so for example, we ingest all your agreements now and tell you what's in them, the meta a, and the terms you want to renegotiate. that wasn't possible before. we could do that instantaneous low. that's a very fast path to value, and there's much more where that's coming from n terms of automated review, agreements you get from third parties, over time assistance and drafting, and all of that is a.i.-powered and really new to the space which has seen relatively modest innovation in terms of this, the general

purpose a.i. models don't get tuned for these type of documents and the level of act rasy and precision required and the security around company documents is heightened in this area so i don't think you're just going to hook up your corporate documents to a public -- a public model and run it that way. >> and what percentage -- what percentage of your business do you think is what i would describe as genuinely folks who need stuff that is super secure living in the cloud, totally identifiable, all of the sort of component parts of the -- i would argue the real sort of value prop -- proposition that you offer? versus those that are just -- need a signature on something, and need to be able to send it off to somebody else in a quick and easy way i ask because i use the product, and i use it in both ways. sometimes -- >> exactly. >> sometimes i use it for something that is super serious,

and then other times, it just happens to be something that just requires a signature, and i -- i don't mean to suggest i could do this, but you could use even, you know, apple, you know, the apple notes app where you can add your signature to the letter or whatever, and it goes off, and i'm just curious -- there's also a network effect to your product, i think. >> absolutely. yeah so i think one way to think about it is that when you have agreements that are highly complex and associated, a.i. really adds a lot of value helping you extract understanding and assist the parties in that process. b 2b agreements, whether they're selling those on the procurement side, that robust agreement really helps there are many kinds of agreements that you point out. simple things like onboarding a new vendor or maybe i'm extending an offer letter or executing an nda, or if i'm a bank, i'm signing up a new customer and typically that concludes with an agreement. those are higher volume -- yes,

lower complexity processes, but there the trust factor and the ability to complete it at high rates so the completion rate and the time to completion is super important, and that's of course, been at the center of our signature product for a long time we've now extended into providing tools that automate all of those processes and make them seamless and delightful we provide both, and in many companies, they need both. >> right. >> some for individuals, central processes that are not heavily negotiated and some for agreements. >> finally, what kind of a pricing power do you have at this point >> well, i mean, we are the premium product, and we command a premium price point in the signature space. i think with this new platform, the intelligent agreement management, we're really the pioneer in bringing that kind of capability in a scaleable way to companies, and so i think we're -- right now we're very pleased with the premium value that we're able to cap because we're delivering something

really valuable and unique, and we plan to continue to work on that >> okay. allan, it's great to see thu - you this morning thank you. congratulations. >> thank you for having me. still to come this morning, a look at some of e thpre-market movers on this jobs friday, and then new york city mayor eric adams will join us "squawk box" will be right back. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com with dexcom g7, managing your diabetes just got easier. so, what's your glucose number right now? good thing you don't need to fingerstick. how's all that food affect your glucose? oh, the answers on your phone. what if you're heading low at night? [phone beeps]

wow, it can alert you?! and you can even track your goals. manage your diabetes with confidence with dexcom g7. the most accurate cgm. ♪♪ learn more at dexcom.com

♪ welcome back to "squawk box" on this friday morning i'm dominik chu with a look it to your morning movers we start with bitcoin in particular trading just around $98,100. it surpassed the $100,000 level for the first time this week that came after president-elect said he would nominate chris atkins to lead the fec, and the $2.5 trillion market cap let's head to hewlett packard

enterprise after they reported a fourth quarter beat on revenue and profits. server revenue rose on a year of year basis, and that can support the process, of vast amounts of data a.i. models, those shares up 35% this year. we'll finish with robin hood there's another 1.5% today analysts at goldman sachs updated that to a buy at neutral. they're expecting wallet share to drive earns growth at robin hood they also raised the target price to 46 bucks. it was $40 that implies an 18% upside from yesterday's close. now for that, another top analyst calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro subscribers can get more access to the full detailnd a analysis of those big calls of the day. keep it right here "squawk box" returns after this commercial break ♪ issues may seem like normal aging but could be due to a buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain.

amyloid can build up over time. the sooner you talk to your doctor, the more options you may have. visit amyloid.com for additional information.

(vo) this holiday, verizon will turn your old or broken phone into a gift. anyone can trade in any phone in any condition and get a samsung galaxy s24+, on us, with circle to search. even if your phone is old or dated, you can turn it in at verizon for gifts for you

and the family. for a limited time get galaxy s24+, watch and tab. all three on us. that's up to $1,900 in value. survive the holidays with samsung. powered by verizon. well, in less than an hour, we're going to get the monthly jobs report for november one of the last major pieces of information this year that could determine what the fed does in the next couple of weeks we have the new chairman and

editor in chief of pantheon macroeconomics congratulations on the knew title. >> thanks for having me. >> what are you thinking >> going to be a big rebound october hit by the hurricane and by the boeing strike the question is whether this puts this on the previous trend or if we're short of it. there's some evidence that hiring may be stabilizing and there's other evidence it's deteriorating. i'm interested in both the november rebound and i want to see the revised october numbers because the october print was based on a very small response rate a lot of people didn't reply on time so it could get a big revision until october, revision to september as well and november >> what if there's not a revision steve n was talking abou this what if that impacts things? >> if the october number stays around zero, and let's say it stays around zero, and the rend is bout 125, you need a 250 fo

november to keep you on the trend. that's a little bit above the consensus which is kind of around 220 but i think 250 is a reasonable starting point. if october remains close to zero and we comment on a 175 for november, you'll get a lot of people talking about hey, the trend is continuing to deteriorate, and that will solidify expectations for the fed to ease later this month and maybe start pushing some expectations for next year as well. >> we had a guest this morning who talked about how inflation, where he sees it is really on the upswing again, and i just wonder how the fed does this do they have to be one of those fish that have eyes on either side of their heads? one eye watching the jobs market, the other watching inflation, and which eye is the dominant one >> they always have to do that, you know, over the last six months or so, you know, the underlying inflation picture has improved, but the last couple of prints have been been great. we saw this earlier this year. the prints at the start of year were disappointing and the fed overreacted to the numbers because the next couple of

months swung the other way it's important not to take these runs for anything very seriously. everything gets revised and everything is subject to sampling era, and it's i think it's dangerous to focus on the latest number because it could easily flip the other way the following month. i think the fundamentals for inflation to me still look good. wage growth is slowing i think it's already at a target consistent pace for inflation. we don't have the supply chain chaos that we had a couple of years ago. we got a much calmer rental market, big chunk of the cpi just the overall environment to me looks quite favorable, but any given month, anything can happen, and the fed has to be aware of the risks. >> all the fed commentary from jay powell down seems to be kind of signaling that they're not going to be in a real rush to do anything, that they want to wait and look around. >> yeah. yeah >> why isn't that an argument for doing nothing at this meeting and waiting to see what happens? >> i mean, i think that's a respectable argument, and i'm not sure that it's absolutely essential they do 25 basis points in two weeks' time or the sky will fall. it won't however, they've allowed market

expectations to ramp up, and they will. if they don't, it will be a really big surprise now. they're not really in the big surprise business. they're going to do. >> there were a bunch of crybaby whiners, and this is what we think is happening are they throwing a temper tantrum? >> they like to manipulate expectations in the run up to the meeting and don't like to deliver a big surprise, you know, at the meeting statement itself so what i think they're also going to do because december is a forecast month so they've got to put out new projections i think they'll probably raise the projections a bit and they'll -- yeah. they might move the unemployment numbers up a little bit as well, but not very much, but i think in the press conference afterwards and then the array of speakers in the week or so after the meeting, they'll be dampening expectations they'll keep going at a rapid pace and they'll start talking about caution and they'll skip january and wait and see what the incoming administration does in the first couple of weeks and revisit the issue in march when they've got a clear idea on where we're going on the fiscal

front, the tariff front, the labor front. no shrinking the labor force it's not clear it makes a huge difference whether they do it in january or take a pause. you've got to be realistic here. whatever they do in the next couple of months, doesn't affect the economy for a year and a half anyway. it's not like we're in a pressing crisis. so yeah. wait >> okay. ian, thank you good to see you this morning coming up, new york city mayor eric adams joins us with the latest developments on the shooting of the unitedhealthcare executive in manhattan and the affordability crisis in new york "squawk box" is coming back. ♪

(agent) we've always said never sell a house in the winter. well, that's not exactly true. with opendoor, you can skip the showings and get a real cash offer. and if you close before the holidays, you don't have to move till after new years. you are disguising my voice here, right? (director) ahhh, of course. (agent with altered voice) foof, just checking. like i was saying... (vo) it's true. opendoor makes selling easy, in any season.

craig here pays too much for verizon wireless.

so he sublet half his real estate office... [ bird squawks loudly ] to a pet shop. meg's moving company uses t-mobile. so she scaled down her fleet to save money. and don's paying so much for at&t, he's been waiting to update his equipment! there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you could save up to an incredible 70% on your wireless bill. so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. a. welcome back to "squawk box. check out shares of amc falling now. the company announcing it has now entered a sales and registration agreement with goldman sachs. the agreement would allow them to issue up to 50 million shares

of its class a common stock, and that's raised questions abedi -- about dilution you can get diluted, but this has always been the story, and the question is can they -- can they make the timing work? >> they were structured not too long ago, and it was posted out well beyond 25 and 26. your dilution, you won't give a damn about delusion if a company -- >> oh, yes. >> if the company doesn't exist. >> that's the whole thing. this is the whole story. this is a fascinating sort of case study. >> i think as a -- if you were looking at the prospects for the company itself, it's a good thing they can sell it, and it was below $4.50, if they can sell 50 million. i don't know when they turned positive in terms of this. they're down i think a third from the pre-pandemic -- >> right it's going to be very tough.

>> but they will -- there is a plan >> there is a path. >> he has a plan. >> he says he has a path. >> he has a plan to profitability. i forget which year. not 2025, or even whatever, but they've got a lot of cash. i think they have a half a billion dollars in the bank. up next, new york city mayor eric adams is going to join us to discuss the state of the city in and the latest developments in the shooting othf e united health care executive who died in midtown, manhattan. "squawk box" will be right back.

at t. rowe price, we help advisors move forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

a. welcome back to "squawk box. the doge team received a response from capitol hill musk saying, quote, i think we just need to make sure we spend the public's money well. musk has now set a target of $2 trillion in savings, though he has not specified a time period with which that would take place vivek ramaswamy meeting separately with republicans including thom tillis who said afterwards, they discussed actions the trump administration could take on their rather than those that would require legislation, and we're going to talk a lot more about all of this in the 8:00 hour. we'll talk to florida congressman aaron bean he's the founder of the house doge caucus. all right. the futures right now. we'll take a quick look at where we're setting up for this big number that we got at 8:30

the nasdaq is a little bit positive, up about five points you got the s&p just off marginally along with the dow. treasuries might be even more indicative of what we're looking at, below 420 now. just talked about that, post-election, went above 4 1/2. now threatening to go perhaps even under 4 that's coming up. coming up in just a moment, well, we've got the big number at 8:30. we will bring you that number, but right after this, you don't want to miss it. new york mayor eric adams is going to be right here on "squawk box. we're going to talk about the shooting in midtown, manhattan, and what it means and what comes next plus, the november jobs report as we mentioned we're counting down for that big number. and then the founder of the house doge caucus is going to join us on elon musk and vivek ra ramaswamy's drive on capitol hill all that and more when "squawk

box" comes right back. to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected.

♪ welcome back to "squawk

box. developments now in the murder investigation of that united health care executive in manhattan this week. we saw images of it all week now. police releasing these photos from a hostel on the upper west side of a person they say is quote, wanted for questioning in connection with the shooting joining us for more right now is the mayor of new york city, mayor adams. thank you for joining us this morning. this is an event, and images that have shaken the city to its core, especially the business community that i think is now more worried than ever about their own security tell us about sort of where this investigation stands, and then we'll dig into maybe some of the broader implications. >> thank you, and good to see you again. we're asking every new yorker and american to look ait -- at the picture, the photo, and to assist us. if his face looks familiar, please reach out to our law enforcement agencies here or

your local law enforcement agency so that we can bring this person to justice and remove them off of these streets of our country. this was amazing police work here this was a fully masked individual and because of our video surveillance system in this city, we were able to track him and get these videos -- these photos that you see right now. it was not an easy task. within just a few hours, the men and women of our law enforcement entities are going to bring this person to justice. >> mr. mayor, can you tell us, is there any new progress that we don't know about beyond these images which have now been brought to the public in terms of where this investigation stands any suspects that you feel like you are closing in on or have a better insight into? >> yes, and there's a lot of new information that our detectives and other law enforcement entities were able to find based

on their good old-fashioned police work. >> right >> but as you know, there's a -- there's a level of sensitivity that you don't want to do anything that's going to endanger the investigation or to tip off the suspect. we will have a full briefing when this person is brought to justice. >> all right mr. mayor, do you have any sense -- i mean, the speculation as you know, that's rampant is this the the result of this gentleman's job, and that he was targeted as a result of working in this insurance industry, potentially, and that -- that this is -- he was targeted as a result of that, as opposed to some kind of family squabble or some other event the reason i ask this is we're on a business network. there's a lot of business executives that are watching, and i think asking the question, how safe are they? >> yeah, and i think your question is a good question,

and, you know, there's a balance here that i want to strike of to number one, ensure that all of the businesspeople in this city, this is the empire state and we build empires here this is the safest big city in america, and i know that an incident like this will strike at the core of that title that we have, but this city is the safe city. we have an amazing police force, and they continue to have drove down crime the entire time that i have been in office, and so we're going to continue to ensure that safety with the only omnipresence of our officers and i want to ensure their safety and i do not to do anything at all that's going to hamper the investigation and the apprehension of the person responsible for this crime >> okay. i got a more complicated one for you, mr. mayor, which is, you know, a lot of executives, senior executives have what's called executive protection. that's the sort of parlance for the industry executive protection is when you have a bodyguard or somebody who

walks with you where you go. there are some people -- big name billionaires who you know who walk around this city complete ly on their own without any protection of any sort there are others that -- that may have even a lower profile that do have that protection for lots of different reasons. how do you think folks should feel about that? >> well, i think personal protection is a personal decision you have not only those who are business executives as you indicated. we have a high list of a-list celebrities and sports figures, but the beauty of new york city, you can actually blend right into the entire atmosphere of the city i saw a folder the other day of manning saying that this is the first time he took the subway system because our subway system is the safest in almost over 14 years when you were in new york,

everyday new yorkers are hustling, bustling, going on with their daily lives, and they're not focusing on individuals and people should go on continuing to live their lives. i think it was just mentioned as we're one of the number one tourist destinations for 2025. this just goes to show you no other american city was on that list this is still an exciting place to live, to entertain, and to raise health insurance decisions because we are safe. >> mr. mayor, i want to pivot to a different topic which is immigration. you're meeting with trump's border czar next week. you also came on "squawk" back in march and talked about those debit cards that you were advocating to be giving to migrants that program is ended, but i'm curious whether you think in the end that was the right decision or the wrong decision, not to end it, but to begin it. >> yes, and they were not debit cards. they were food cards, and, you know, some of the sensationalism

that was attached to it didn't understand the full mission. these were food cards. the law requires us to feed the migrants and asylum secrets that are here we saw that there was food waste and during the emergency, we gave them food cards where they were -- they had to we were able to spend the money locally in our local stores, bow day gas. this was a smart idea. the reason we end the the program because of the job we've done 220,000 migrants and asylum seekers in the city, 170,000 we were able to move to the next leg of our journey because of smart policies we brought down the course of the migrants and asylum seekers. this cost our city $6.4 billion that the federal government should have picked up the price tag and they didn't. we made the right decision and i think now we have an administration we can work with to further secure our borders and deal with this immigration crisis we're facing.

>> what's been the reaction to some of your comments you made this week about immigrants and migrants that have come to the state illegally and what may happen under a trump administration you sugg est you're going to wor with the trump administration, there are others in the city -- this is considered a blue city for a long time -- that have suggested you shouldn't be. >> think about that for a moment imagine four years of warring with the president and not working with the president our country is about how do we move our cities forward and that's what my goal is going to do people say you're changing comments it's the same comments when i was on your program last year i talked about those small number of migrants and asylum seekers who are coming here committing violence in our city and those acts of violence are

unacceptable not only are they unacceptable toer every day new yorkers but asylum seekers that are here anyone who commits a crime in this city should be held accountable and those here based on the guests of our city and country should be removed from our country after they serve their time i've been consistent on that no matter who is the president at the time >> what's your relationship right now with president trump -- president-elect trump he made nice comments about you as you might remember at the al smith dinner >> well, i'm a nice person, so people should make nice comments about me i have a big heart i love this city i served it as a police officer, state senator and so president biden made nice comments about me when he came to the city, and i visited him in washington, d.c., and talked about crime he helped us with crime issues i think we should have done a

better job around securing our borders and not having cities pay this awesome amount to deal with a national problem and so when i communicate the with the president it's the same thing i communicated with president biden. we need resources for the city of new york, and i look forward to working with his administration and bringing those resources to this amazing city >> question about your own personal situation, you said earlier this week that president biden and president-elect trump now agree on one thing which is that the biden justice department has been politicized, in regard to the hunter biden pardon and you said that that relates to your case my question to you is, would you try to seek a pardon in advance from either biden or trump >> well, i have been extremely clear i did nothing wrong. i have a great team of attorneys. any pathway to justice we're going to seek that no american should go through what i'm going through right now, and really, no american

should go through some of the things itnessed. when you put everyday parents on fbi watch lists when they're standing up fighting for their children, when you look at some of the things happening to everyday americans, it's just not right. you know, to spend millions of dollars in legal fees to have information leaked about your investigation continuously, no american should be going through this we deserve more in america. >> have you asked president-elect trump about a pardon or the current president? >> no, i have not. i have a legal team that's handling my case and i have a great deal of respect for them they're going to handle that i said to new yorkers when this first became public that i was going to keep our city on a pathway of success that we've witnessed and that yes vote is a reflection of that turned around our economy, dealt with all the crises we have to face i lived up, and i'm going to live up to what new yorkers asked me to do when they elected

me and make sure this city continues the progress. >> mr. mayor, i don't know how comfortable you are weighing in on this daniel penny third day of the jury still not back, asking some more questions you made a -- some kind of comment about i'm not sure -- i'm going to let you make yourself more clear about what you meant, what do you think a conviction or a 15-year prison sentence would -- it would seem like no one would step in on a situation like that again? it seems like a bad precedent. it almost seems like -- i don't know -- a reflection of what's been going on in the city for a while, where someone trying to help out in a situation ends up on the losing end. >> well, i think we've always asked new yorkers, you see something say something, do something, and new yorkers have always had the spirited energy to come to their fellow new yorkers. we have to be honest about the severe mental health crisis that

we're facing in no way i want to do something that will make the jury decision harmful in any way he was going to be judged by a jury of his peers. they're deliberating let's let them do their job. i do know we have a broken system of dealing with severe mental health illness in our not only our subway system but on our streets. i have been advocating to give us more power for involuntary removal for those who can't take care of themselves and dangerous to others. this young man was part of that problem. he was a revolving door mental health system and we have to do a better job of that i wish his family well, and i wish the family of mr. penny well as well. >> mr. mayor, wanted to ask you about housing because you scored a win this week. the city council passing your affordable housing plan. the question i had is how much of this is about building new housing versus loosening

restrictions on current buildings and how far you may be willing to go to change the dynamic around pricing in the city for housing, you know, airbnb has been trying to get into the city for a long time, hotel prices are high, rent is high do you see a path for that what comes next? >> well, it's a combination, and this was a well thought out plan that started in albany we met with the governor and leader hasting and leader -- majority leader andrew stewart cousins and their team to talk about the state reforms that we needed we were able to accomplish that. conversions of office buildings into housing, f.a.r. and other changes. then we had to come to the city and implement a plan in the city and we just accomplished that yesterday. this is the most comprehensive and largest housing reform in the history of the city of new york 80,000 units of housing.

this is what we wanted to accomplish it's about incentivizing more building and going after the 1.4% vacancy rate in our city and having every neighborhood in the city participate and contribute to new housing without changing the low rise areas in our city. >> mr. mayor, want to thank you for joining us this morning. appreciate it. >> thank you good to see you again. >> see you again soon. you bet. let's check on the futures this morning right now it's a little bit of a mixed picture but no major move one direction or the other the dow futures off by 33. the nasdaq up by just 10 points. down to the new york stock exchange for a look at the markets with mike santoli. mike, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky. take a look at the s&p 500 quiet open ahead of the jobs number it's been relatively calm here, sort of rock solid trend

the median stock on the s&p over a week-to-date basis is down, you have had the more defensive megacap growth stocks work here. you see a slowdown around that 6,000 level. the year-to-date basis holding to that basis. the spicy areas of the market that have come alive aside from the mega caps you've seen these sort of -- the big boom time class of 2021. this is the ipo etf. fin tech and then cloud software stocks this move right here since august in all of these, that's like 30, 40% upside. you can see where we came from basing for a couple years a lot of the unprofitable or just emerging sort of riskier fin tech type names. this is where a lot of energy in this market is right now we'll see if it sort of overshoots at some point i think it's important to keep in mind what the longer term trajectory has been and how long they've been on the outs all this offsetting action has

kicked volatility quite low. take a look at the volatility index. the vix. it is now down around 13.5, actually ducked below 13 briefly and makes sense. the actual volatility the index in the last couple weeks has been minimal it can get lower as the seasonally slow time goes. ultimately it might build to a point where people get a little bit too comfortable into the new year where it might be setting up for a shakeout. for now slow and steady, guys. >> i will be the vix spiking a couple months ago where it spiked almost up to 40 what was it for? >> that was august 5th that was that real -- that intense day when you had the yen carry trade unwind and, in fact, there's a lot of talk about how the vix was giving a flukey reading because it wasn't really trading so to speak the underlying options weren't that was a messy episode that really was just a pulse and quickly kind of gave way

it was the low for that pullback that we had starting in july and the stock market has made its way higher since then. >> very quickly, we had ian shepherdson with us a little bit ago and he's going to be looking at the revisions more than ever this time because last month's reading was only 12,000 jobs created, basically zero. getting to 125,000 average over those two -- over the last month and this month we're going to be getting, that's pretty important if you want to maintain that jobs market is not under more pressure what's the reaction from the street likely to be? what's the knee-jerk reaction if those revisions don't really show any job growth for the previous month >> yeah. i think it would solidify further the sense that the fed is going to be cutting in a couple weeks there has been a bit of a soft match in the macro data not that it's showing the economy isn't performing well, it's decelerated or coming in a little bit below expectations.

we'll see if the labor market data conforms to that. it is, of course, as you guys have been talking about going to be noisy but the comeback from the strikes and storms might be a little bit of the eye of the beholder bond market seems positioned for the potential of sort of a softer or luke warm number,so e'll see if that plays out. >> mike, thank you okay meantime elon musk and vivek ramaswamy bringing their d.o.g.e. initiative to capitol hill the two men meeting with lawmakers on the drive to cut federal spending joining us right now is the founder and co-chair of the house d.o.g.e. caucus congress man aaron bean good morning. >> good morning, "squawk box." >> i think we're trying to understand what this is going to look like and what you leave believe elon musk and vivek ramaswamy can accomplish, accomplish without congress, need congress for. put meat on the bones for us we've heard a lot about it, but we don't really know where this all can go. >> well, it's great excitement they came, they stormed capitol hill yesterday they were very well received

we had some private meetings and then we also had a general caucus meeting at the behest of the speaker where there was just -- i can't tell you the buzz it was almost like a rock concert or super bowl because so many people came out to greet them and to take part. they're going to go to work. they're going to go to work and use the president's pen to do a lot of restructuring and making america lean we want to assist them because we know anything that can be done with the pen can be undone with the pen, so congress is there. we've created this d.o.g.e. caucus and we want to bring support to elon and vivek. >> what is on the list in your mind people talk about waste, fraud, and abuse, we've talked about that for a long time you can look in a lot of different departments for that including the defense department and others what's off limits, what's on that's been comments made about things like social security and

the like tell us how you're thinking about this. >> i think we're going to start with waste there's no wrong answer where to start. there's so much to be done there's good gravy we haven't had an exercise like this in 25 years, so the waste and -- there was much discussion so few federal employees are back at their offices and back at their desks full time we have billions of square footage that footage that is sitting empty right now. can we get these federal employees back to work but also realign it cost us billions of dollars each month to maintain these buildings. that's probably an easy lay-up of reassessing where we are to -- to make things right there. we're out of -- >> i mean, there have been suggestions we should be selling buildings. the u.s. government should be

selling real estate. but if we're going to sell real estate then there's a secondary question which is, i think somebody like elon musk would say he wants workers in the office five days a week. there are others who -- other businesses, private businesses, that are doing sort of three or four days a week and think people can work from home. other things like that that can be more efficient could you imagine saying okay, you know what we're going to make a lot of money selling the real estate but we are going to have some government employees work from home >> well, many have said if they're forced to go back full time many will resign or take early retirement i say we call their bluff. it's not just owning buildings we lease a lot of buildings. we're paying for empty buildings. that doesn't make any sense to me doesn't make any sense to the american people. that's a better job we can do. we have never gone through this exercise before. so there's lots of low hanging fruit there. as to your question of what's on the table or not, everything is

on the table. >> the $2 trillion, what is that is that over what kind of period of time are we -- do you think that is in reference to? >> they have already said that the d.o.g.e. work group will cease july 4th. >> in two years. >> 2026. that's right america's birthday america's 250th anniversary. so they've also said this, elon said this, he goes, if we fail in this mission and it's really a gift from the american people it's a mandate from the american people to get where we are, to get the mandate to get trump in to get somebody who is serious about doing it, if we fail, we'll miss an opportunity and not only have egg on our face, but elon made a joke about diving in the whole omelet we'll all be covered in egg. if anybody can get it done i'm betting on the rocket scientist to get it done. >> i have a question about language and the reason i mentioned language is, there has been a lot of language that has

been attacking effectively not just the idea that the government is overspending money, but the idea of not just -- and the deep state, the employees in the government, and to me there's got to be some kind of balance because i honor those in public service and those who have decided to work for us, and i worry deeply -- and i don't know if you worry -- there are people who are doing important and good work on behalf of taxpayers who may not want to be in this kind of work anymore. >> well, no, that's something we're going to look at we can't have unelected bureaucrat, spending money doing what congress is doing i went through an election as did all of congress. i'm accountable to the people and that's the way our constitution is set. we've gotten out of balance

where bureaucrats have taken over government and that's what people refer to as the deep state. that's where we've got to reclaim that power we had some supreme court decisions that say congress has this authority law making doesn't reside with bureaucrats. that was a heavy theme yesterday to put the power back into the people who were elected and who are accountable to the people. vivek said, let the constitution be our north star as we embark on this mission of making government leaner. so the constitution is going to be there let's harness the power. i think you'll agree that these people that are -- if they care about our country they want the great re-set of getting lean and getting efficient because right now, we are on an unsustainable course, america. it is unsustainable and if we don't make changes now, changes will come to us. so let's get ahead of it. >> congressman bean, we appreciate your time this

morning. look forward to talking to you again soon as your work continues and progresses thanks >> thanks, "squawk box." all right. coming up, the november jobs report right at 8:30 a.m. next tiktok's fate in america hanging in the balance ur're standing by for a big cot ruling we'll have those details when "squawk box" returns (vo) this holiday, verizon will turn your old or broken phone into a gift. anyone can trade in any phone in any condition and get a samsung galaxy s24+, on us, with circle to search. even if your phone is old or dated,

you can turn it in at verizon for gifts for you and the family. for a limited time get galaxy s24+, watch and tab. all three on us. that's up to $1,900 in value. survive the holidays with samsung. powered by verizon. (intercom) flight deck we are go for launch! (ethan) is that the one? (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...is that a walk in closet? (ethan) i want those tiles! (intercom) boosters engaged. (ethan) wait! we've got a problem! (janet) problem?! (ethan) how can you sell your house when we're

stuck on a space station for months???!!! (tanya) no, no! bad timing, janet!!! (janet) but that was the one!!!! (brian) no, no, no... opendoor!! (tanya) don't open the door. (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (all) really? (brian) yea!!! (intercom) we have liftoff. (janet) nice! (janet) houston we have a playroom! ♪

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures about where they were down 45 now on the dow. there's a big ruling for tiktok. >> there is. a big ruling for tiktok coming today, and cnbc's julia boorstin joins us right now she's got a look at what to expect and what it could mean for the app, and its users hi, julia. >> hi. tiktok's fate is in the balance as we await today's decision which could impact its 170 million u.s. users a u.s. federal appeals court is expected to rule on whether tiktok must abide by the ban on the app that goes into effect january 19th if its parent company chinese byte dance does not divest its ownership by then this comes after the senate in april passed a ban or force a divestment and president biden signed night law what can we expect now the court could side with tiktok's argument that the law

is unconstitutional violating the first amendment or say banning tiktok is no different from bans on foreign ownership of say broadcasting licenses or the like now whatever the judge decides, the losing party, either tiktok or the department of justice, is expected to appeal the outcome the nation's highest court could make a ruling by january 19th or put a hold on the ban while the litigation proceeds. if the court allows the ban to proceed the app is unlikely to disappear from phones. the legislation calls for google and app stores to remove the app from their stores and it's unclear how soon the app would stop operations, including processing tiktok shop orders or paying u.s.-based creators on the platform tiktok shuttering would be a big win for meta, snap and youtube removing competition for users and ad dollars, but there is a massive wild card here which is

what trump will do when he's inaugurated, which is the day after the deadline for the legislation. he could direct the doj to not enforce the ban or he could proclaim that tiktok is already complying with the law so a lot of unknowns here, becky. >> that was my biggest question, just does any of this matter at this point it's all up to the incoming administration >> yeah. i mean what's so interesting you have this deadline the day before inauguration and you have the fact that trump back when he was in office tried to already do this. this was something he already tried to do -- >> but then he changed around -- >> to have come around on tiktok he has changed his mind and now wants to protect tiktok, but he has a lot of people working for him that are split on this issue. so a real variety of perspectives from his incoming administration and we'll see what he decides to do. >> good to see you we'll see you later.

>> good to see you >> up next, the number of the morning. we're going to bring you that november jobs report stay tuned you are watching "squawk box." this is cnbc we are five minutes away from that jobs repo rt

at t. rowe price, we help advisors move forward by building agile etfs designed to outperform the index. that's the power of curiosity. better questions can lead to better solutions. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

we are just a few minutes away from the government's november employment report, and ahead of the number, let's bring in our jobs panel. joe lavorgna former national economic chief economist under president trump, he's now the chief economist for smbc securities america former counsel of economic advisors chairman under president obama. he's now the professor at harvard's kennedy school of government sara malik, chief investment officer and head f equities an fixed income at naeven, steve liesman back on set and rick santelli at his post bringing us a lot of those numbers what's the number again? >> 214 with a tick up in the unemployment rate. >> what do you think >> 2 something there is going to be a rebound because of the weather.

>> and the strikes. >> and the strikes >> 80,000 plus for that number, joe. >> why not >> really debate here and say 2 something. >> 2 something wild man. >> what do you think, rick i think around 180 i think we're going to come in a little bit light. >> any revisions do you think? >> that's a big story. >> because we may have to go back and rethink what we thought before, which changes what we think now. >> that's been the pattern, steve. >> you're right. >> look at the qc data wraef overstated employment by 1.2 million. the jobs in health and government. >> too wonky, downgraded how much they're going to downgrade it, minus 800 to minus 600. >> the data for june suggests it's an extra 400. a million, that's a lot. >> i think there's a bunch of data in this economy and the main story it's coming in stronger than we expected. couple months ago we thought, you know, maybe we would be

heading to a recession now that's mostly off the table at this point. >> live in the boston area, have you been to moon custard >> i have not. >> do you know the restaurant. >> i don't know that. >> it's the name of steve liesman's bands. >> one of my bands >> just one of. >> i haven't been to that band either. >> never been to the band or restaurant. >> rick, the numbers for november's jobs report. >> the november jobs, jobs, jobs report hitting the wires and pretty darn close to expectations 227,000. 227,000. the revisions haven't come through yet. oh, they are starting to come through now. if we look at two months worth of revisions we're going to subtract -- actually, i take that back -- we are going to add 56,000 56,000 for a two-month add let's look at the unemployment rate it ticks up from 4.1 to 4.2%

now this is interesting because this equals where we were in june, let's see where we were, 4.2, in august we were at 4.2. we're at 4.3 in july so even though it ticked up, we have been higher and that 4.3 read that we had in july was the highest going back to october of '21 very important area we're starting to come up against with respect to the unemployment rate now if we look at average hourly earnings month over month realizing they're pretty strong last month they remain strong up 0.4 again so that's back-to-back up 0.4 that is a solid read and do remember the highest read we had all year was in january up 0.5%. if we look at average hourly earnings on a year over year perspective, solid, up 4%. back-to-back 4%. now if we look at how that pans through, the highest levels were in the beginning of the year also at 4.4.

then we had 4.3. then we had 4.1. first three months of the year but this is a resurgence coming back to some of those levels if you look at the average hourly work week for employees, that's 34.3. 34.3, that would be about the eighth 34.3 -- sorry, last month revised to 34.2. now we've had seven of those this year. it's pretty much where it's been hanging out. if we look at labor force participation rate it moves down 0.10 not good in thor in the rearview mirror last month 62.6. here we are at 62.5, which equals where we were in may of this year to find a lower number, you have to go back quite a ways you have to go back to january of last year january of last year to find 62.4 finally, the under employment

rate, you know, the actual 4.2% called u 3 the under employment rate is monitored u 6, and it comes in at 7.8%. 7.8% versus last month's 7.7 7.8 is the highest since august when it was 7.9 and 7.9 is the highest that we had for all of 2024 interest rates like this number. they like this number. if you looked at last month with an anomaly with the issues that could have affected it, whether hurricanes or strikes, this is somewhat of a nice bounce back you had a positive revision, but kind of puts us in a pretty sweet spot that's what i think the markets are telling us preopening equities we're making new futures highs on the session. so it seems as though the markets are taking this pretty well if you look at a 4.09 in 2-year, 2-year closed at 4.16 yesterday, and last week.

okay we're now down on the week basically seven basis points if you look at a 10-year, 10-year closed last week at 4.17, it's hovering right under 4.16 at the moment back to the panel. >> all right very good. thanks, rick so stocks are up yields are down. do my bryant gumbel. why? why, steve why? >> what i see is a -- now a 90% probability -- let me see -- >> no way -- >> 89.4% probability of a cut in december up from around 68 when we went into the number. i will tell you why. i will do this math. >> why >> live on tv here. >> you will. >> 227 minus 80. if you do that for strikes we'll do some more precise work on this later, but if you take 80 as the benchmark for the combination of hurricanes and strikes, joe is laughing at me already, but we'll give you a chance --

>> i was laughing before - >> you're always laughing at me. 227 minus 80, 147. the two different trends you had a trend north of 200 before the weakness we had set in and then down to 150. we're right at that trend. look at the three-month average. it's a touch hot on the three-month average because of the revisions. we're at 173 from 123 up the prior month. there's the three-month average. you're back down you can't see that you had this north of 200 number now we're back down into the somewhat weaker but still relatively stable or strong job market i think it's okay for the fed to cut here in part because you have that downshift from that big numbers on the left to those more modest numbers, but still okay numbers. >> both these guys here, sara, are looking at me like they're entitled to talk next because they're here i'm going to let you talk -- >> oh, wow. >> sometimes i forget. sometimes we forget. sara, i'm going to go to you

next >> thanks, joe i wish i was there i think the markets were hoping for two gifts from this number, and that one is a santa claus rally for the rest of this month and the second rate cut by the fed. it does increase the chances of a rate cut as we're looking at this number. we can't take this number on face value but the average over the past two months from the weak number due to strikes and storms and this number we're coming around the three-month average of 150,000 i think the concern with this number is average hourly earnings coming in at 0.4%, given the return of leisure, retail and temp workers post strikes and storms i would like to see an average hourly earnings cool to 0.3% or below the last mile of inflation is still a concern for the fed, but we get the gift later in december the rate cut of 25 basis points. >> jason came all the way down here and said -- are you here just for us? no >> okay. >> other reasons to be in the big city. >> sorry, joe. >> but i was excited when it all worked outs. to see you, joe.

this is another data point in the no landing scenario. let's just smooth things over the last three months and don't need to worry about hurricanes no hurricanes. 173,000 jobs per month is actually higher than the pace we were at before after the benchmark revision average hourly earnings over the last three months 4.5% annual rate that's the type of average hourly earnings growth you expect to have in an economy with about 3.5% inflation. not an economy heading to 2% regulation. >> is it >> the household survey is the confusing part we saw employment fall, participation fell, unemployment rose people will have to sort out the difference between those two numbers. in general, the establishment survey is the more reliable one. i have no doubt the fed will cut again, but when they cut again after december, is anyone's guess and i think it will take more of an increase in unemployment -- >> did you say it's more like a 3.5% inflation. >> there's a lot of data on inflation so i think we're

probably in the 2.5 to 3% range. this particular data point if this is all you were looking at you would say we're in a 3.5. >> unless you factor in productivity which makes sense for the wages to be rising. >> you need pretty high productivity. >> we did even at 2%. >> you can't just subtract it because of a bunch of technical things that would get you to 3% inflation off this number with this pace of wage growth. >> i don't know where to begin give me a lead, maybe. >> jason doesn't think we should cut. >> he thinks we should cut. >> i think one more is fine. doesn't both me. >> here's the problem with the cutting financial conditions have eased massively massively. the fed runs the risk of creating a speculative bubble. there's no reason to cut rates right now. >> you guys agree? >> on that i guess we do do they should pause. >> the economy is that healthy than pause. >> you believe that deep down

but never say it. >> what? >> we shouldn't cut it. >> every person who says it's okay because the market is expecting it and we don't want to upset the market. >> financial conditions have eased because a year ago the federal reserve pivoted and said it was going to be cutting interest rates this is a direct result of what the fed wanted and the policy it imparted to markets and markets largely agreed with it and they price in and when you talk about this, you're sort of talking against where the market is priced. >> hold on the fed -- we went from three cuts to one cut to maybe no cuts, now to four from what the forecasts were the fed is all over the map. the problem is if you look at interest rates, real rate, they look relatively high financial conditions have eased. credit spreads are at generational tights. equities booming the gap between financial conditions and real rates is wider than it was in '07. >> if you're on wall street. if you're on main street you're

still paying essentially the administrative rate that federal reserve is charging in the sense that you have an fib survey shows small business pays 10% plus, credit cards are high, personal loans are high. the difference between main street and wall street is access to capital wall street gets the number that the fed promises main street gets the number the fed delivers. >> you know -- >> i mean 10-year on ortgage rates is a big part of the main street story. >> right. >> i'm ambivalent about the next cut. i don't see them after that. but, you know, the fed waited a long time to cut i think that was the right thing to do. but that's so they don't have to reverse themselves and admit they make a mistake. the inflation rate came down a couple percentage points the unemployment rate went up half a point before they even started to cut so there might still be off -- >> let's give rick a chance -- >> i have to say this, sorry you want to help small business here's what you do cut regulations and corporate tax rates more that's what you do

want to create capital -- >> we could go there another day, joe. >> rick might want to -- >> wow. >> say something, too. all you did was give us numbers. i want you to get something started, rick. i don't care who you pick on either you got three people not sara please don't. >> there's one topic that came up that i really thought was interesting. you were talking about the fed doesn't want to surprise the markets. there's some truth to that fed guidance has landed, fed fund futures at that 90% level they haven't pushed back most of the fed talk seems to agree. they had plenty of time to potentially back that up a bit, and when you are running the kind of debt structure this country has your really can't have big surprises in the market between the fed and the market and where rates may two.go there has to be this symbiotic relationship there it's important the other issue is, and i agree with sara it's all about

earnings 0.4 and 4.0, those are powerful. i also agreejason, down the road that's going to bring at least some inflationary pressures, and that's the big story here as well that inflation is not going back to 2%. it's something that we seem to overlook since the fed now seems to be looking at under the leaf of the labor market and it's perceived weakness that is showing up turtle type slow but the real deal here is ultimately they're going to have to deal with inflation again and when the next administration comes in, with all the question marks as to how their policies are going to continue to affect inflation, how the public is only seeing what they're paying as a differential between pre-2020 and today, that is going to, in my opinion, the story of 2025, is debt and inflation. >> joe, is that a "squawk box" -- >> i was -- >> that was a four box with five people never been done before.

>> confusing. >> never done before. >> i don't know what to call it. >> sara, i think -- >> i was going to say rick brings up a good point, the last mile of inflation for 2025 is going to be a headwind and then if the fed cuts rates less than investors expect we have to couple that with valuations which are trading at about 22 times earnings for next year which are at a premium that keeps a lid on this market up 25% for two years in a row. if you look at earnings for next year at a reasonable rate of 265, 270, give that still an above average multiple that compresses a little bit that only gets you to 6400, 6500 on the s&p that's what 5% upside and that's going to be the struggle for the market because if the fed cannot crush this inflation number then we're not going to get the cuts and -- >> sara -- >> doesn't that hurt small -- sara, doesn't that hurt small cap more than large cap? large cap is out there, the borrowing, the spreads are nice and tight. it's the small cap that would take it on the chin with rates remaining higher. >> we like small caps because of

the tax cuts and the strength of the u.s. economy around that and deregulation opens up the m&a market and tariffs make it more promising for domestic [ inaudible ] small cap on top of that you have the huge valuation gap. i'm not going to say valuations drive upside because you need a catalyst i see that catalyst for small caps around some of the other reasons i just mentioned. >> okay. >> they're telling me to wrap. >> how can you -- >> oh -- >> this is -- >> you know in figure skating it's like a double full camel or something. this has never -- i don't think it's been attempted before to have a -- >> now you guys are all -- >> andrew has to go over there. >> wow tv magic. >> make a holiday card. >> what do you call this >> i don't know. >> there's joe. >> i can't believe we talked more about the boxes than the federal debt. >> this way. >> i got to go this way. this is -- >> no. >> oh. hi. >> sara. >> me and you and rick

oh. >> okay. we've got enough this is a serious -- it's a jobs report for god's sake. rick, everybody, one and all, thank you. one and all. jason, joe, sara, steve, rick, becky and me. >> folks when we come back, a lot -- thank you -- we've got the new jobs number. we're going to talk about what it means for the fed as it mulls another interest rate caught we'll play off what we talked about and now speak with vice chairman roger ferguson of t fed, formerly of the fed you're watching "squawk" on cnbc that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business.

♪♪ i sold a pillow! with dexcom g7, managing your diabetes just got easier. so, what's your glucose number right now? good thing you don't need to fingerstick. how's all that food affect your glucose? oh, the answers on your phone. what if you're heading low at night? [phone beeps] wow, it can alert you?! and you can even track your goals. manage your diabetes with confidence with dexcom g7. the most accurate cgm.

♪♪ learn more at dexcom.com

welcome back to "squawk. the november employment report showing 227,000 jobs added last month. the unemployment rate now 4.2% take a look at the futures right now. we've got some green still on the screen the dow up about 42 points, the nasdaq 26 points, s&p 5007 points

we'll show you treasuries real quick and then joined by a man who has a better sense of where the fed is thinking about a lot of things than most, right now you're looking at the 10-year at 4.1, the 2-year at 4.1 as well. >> joining us with more on how the jobs number could affect the rate's calculus, roger ferguson, the former fed vice chairman, and a cnbc contributor, and roger, these numbers were pretty much in line with what economists had been anticipating, but i don't know if you heard joe and jason just arguing, not arguing back and forth, actually agreeing on things, agreeing that maybe the fed doesn't need to cut rates anymore. what do you think of that? >> look, so i think there's an argument that, in fact, you know, some of these numbers are a little more worrisome. the average hourly earning number is up a little bit, more than one might have expected you know, when that productivity is justifying that is an open question at the end of the day this is going to be a close call, but

they're likely to go with 25 basis points and then definitely be in pause and wait and see mode they have put a lot of emphasis on inflation returning to their 2% target. i think right now the emphasis has to be on gradual and that i think suggests one more cut, more likely than not, and then pause, wait and see. >> i guess the question would be if we think we need to pause and look around, why not start immediately? why do this last rate cut? you think it's necessary or you think it's something the market is anticipating so we should go ahead with it? >> i think a couple things one, yes, the market is anticipating and we should go ahead with it. this fed is also capable of pushing back at the last minute, so we have to watch and see what happens. secondly, i think they believe that they're still in restrictive territory more so than they need to be on balance i think we're going to get that cut. to be fair we might get a dissent in that space.

there might be a little regret they went 50 for the first time. but i think this is going to be, you know, no harm done if they take the cut and, you know, surprise to the market if they don't, and i think that on balance is going to lean towards the cut with a clear message that, you know, they're not on a campaign at this stage we'll wait and see afterwardss >> you think inflation overall is heading back to 2.5, 3%, back up >> look i have for a long period of time observed that core inflation has been sticky. there's a great deal of noise about headline inflation the reason core inflation has been sticky has varied over time, but right now has to do with the housing sector, and that's something very difficult for them to control. so my concern has long been that, you know, the return to 2 will be very delayed and we may get ourselves stuck at some number, maybe something in the 2.5 range and it's a real

dilemma for the fed. how far do they go to get the last inch, so to speak, of inflation down so i have long been worried that it's not going to be as smooth as we hope and there are reasons to push against the start of the last mile being difficult. i'm still in the camp that it's not done until it's done. >> look, jay powell and company are in a pretty difficult position, just this idea that they don't want inflation picking back up and getting sticky also don't want to be in a position where small businesses in particular can't get access to credit the way big businesses can, that they are still faced with these crunching forces on both sides, the ability to access credit and the ability to deal with inflation when it's coming at them in things like higher wages and other things they have to pay for how do you resolve that? how do you deal with that? how do the scales on either side get weighed by the fed >> look, i think the scales get very much weighed towards the

dual mandate with -- getting inflation back down. everyone recognizes getting inflation back to 2% will have uneven impacts across the economy, depending on access to credit, how intersensitive one may be, the balance sheets of households and businesses, et cetera i think it's going to be very difficult for them to say we will tolerate inflation somewhat above the 2% number we've been touting for a long period of time in order to deal with specific sector problems i think in general they think about this as a macro issue and go back to the dual mandate and they have expressed a great deal of focus on the 2% and i think it would be challenging for them to pull back at this stage because of particular sector concerns. >> that's an argument for not doing anything right now if you're focused on the dual mandate but your primary concern is inflation, that's an argument to not cut again at this next meeting.

>> put you're missing -- yes, possibly, three points, however. one is their analysis suggests -- and most do agree -- that over time inflation will get back closer to 2%. where that will hit is another question two, you know, they clearly believe that they continue to be in restrictive territory somewhat they aren't sure how much. but, you know, that's important. and third, i think like it or not, you know, the expectations built in the market will have to be, you know, removed pretty quickly, and i'm not sure they have room to do that i hear you i'm not arguing that there's no logic to what you're saying. i think on balance, we're going to see the cut for the reasons i just outlined, and then it will be easy and clear they should wait and pause and see what happens next. >> roger, have great weekend and thank you. >> thank you when we come back, some top stocks to watch ahead of the final opening bell of the week on wall street

the nasdaq and the s&p 500 on pace for their third positive week in a row. although the dow is tracking for a negative week. "squawk box" will be right back. ] not all multimillionaires build their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the boot strapper. the boot maker. hee-ha. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice, every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪ ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance.

cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. (vo) this holiday, verizon will turn your old or broken phone into a gift. and wealth advisors. trade in any phone, in any condition and get samsung galaxy s24+ with circle to search, and watch and tab. all three on us. survive the holidays with samsung, powered by verizon.

that follows a drop of about 10% for both stocks yesterday. got hit with alphabet owned waymos expanding to miami, first with human safety drivers, and then a robo taxi service in 2026 waymo says it already has completed 120 robo taxi rides a week in san francisco, phoenix and los angeles. we're just a little more than half an hour from opening bell on wall street. dom chu is looking at what's moving what's going on? >> let's get started with a check on shares of lulu lemon, up about 9% after posting a beat on the bottom and top lines, sales climbed by 9% year over year, but shares were still down

about 25% over this year as growth has slowed amid increasing competition from companies like yoeg ga and halo. shares of dollar general up about 2% with better than expected revenues for the quarter. dollar general is back to basic strategy is working and leading to higher in-store customer satisfaction they expect gains in market shares, including family dollar and cvs plans to close stores. peloton up 4%. analysts are encouraged by further cost cutting and expect the incoming ceo to grow subscription revenues. now, for more on that other topical for the day, go to cnbc.com/pro guys, back over to you

>> dom, going to get a final check on the markets this morning. you can see that the number was friendly enough. the jobs number, and even the details. devil is in the details all the time we're showing some gains i don't know if that will be enough for the dow to close up for the week, but it just might, just might join us next week. "squawk on the street" is coming up next. ♪ ♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." futures are fairly steady as jobs come in roughly in line, 227,000. the unemployment rate ticking up to the highest since august. yields are lower ten-year hits 4.14, the lowest since mid october. we begin with the jobs numbers, above expect