>> vertiv. >> down 3% >> mystery >> glaxo >> see if we get 6100 on the s&p 500. not that final bit that'll do it for us "exchange" begins right now. thank you very much, scott welcome to "the exchange" i'm kelly evans. did that strong jobs report -- let me try this again. did the strong jobs report put the fed pause on pause it depends who you ask fed governor bowman was decidedly hawkish. cleveland hammock was notably hawkish. this has taken some gains out of the market we'll talk more about that ai is expected to create some jobs to eliminate others

what economists say it's impacting the market in another way exacerbating the hiring doom loop what elon musk's proximity to the president-elect will mean to federal workers. speaking of musk, the paypal mafia snagging a spot in the trump administration we'll explore that and the future of tiktok here in the u.s. and what openai's second day of shipments brings in our tech roundtable. my guess is it's not two turtle doves. let's get over to dom chu. >> christmas and a partridge in a pear tree for people long in the equity markets another day and another record high for the stock market overall. the two indices we've been focusing on at least for the last couple of days. i'll start off with the stars. the s&p 500 hits another interday level another interday record as well.

for the s&p 500 we are at 6,084. .1 of 1% at the highs of the session up about 24 points. at the lows, down about 5. tilting towards the lower point. puts a new high water mark is 6 ,099 it's up about half of 1%, 113 points dow industrial is down 112 points to 44,653 one of the bright spots so far today in interday action has been amongst some of the bigger retail stories tied to earnings reports. specifically lululemon, the best performer in the s&p 500 far and away today, up about 18.5% to 408 plus dollars a share better outlook ulta beauty, same story there. up about 10% $433 per share victoria's secret and petco,

they are up anywhere from 7 to 17% for petco all on better earnings results and revised outlooks then bitcoin, the story of the week because of its own record highs. 103,000, 6 to 800 depending which exchange you look at right now at 101,093 still about 2 1/4% $2 trillion in market cap for bitcoin overall. keep an eye on the stocks because the ecosystem has gone up in in anticipation of the six figure print, kelly. they've been consolidating for the last several days around this level we'll see where those crypto stocks take the next leg higher on crypto prices >> dom, thank you very much. dom chu. let's dig a little further into today's jobs report which had a number of different ways to look at it. top level, 227,000 jobs. great. that was way more the street

estimate got some upward revisions for october and september. so that whole trend taken altogether tells you there was better vigor in that part of the economy following that noisy report that we got the month before which was impacted by hurricanes and labor strikes here's the thing, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1 for a couple of months my next guest says there's nothing that would deter the fed from cutting rates on december 18th and once again in january all the moves depend on what's happening with inflation joining us is carl tannenbaum and on set is steve liesman. before we retrace ack, what ar we feeling from the fed officials? >> you want to know exactly? >> no, no, no. >> you're talking to the wrong person. >> what primarily do we need to know >> i would say hammock from

cleveland, she's hitting a possible pause i see one more cut between now and the end of january which means she could pause in december, come back in january we're at a near point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate cuts. she also suggested that you're kind of maybe not far from neutral right now. bowman concerned about inflation to the up side i think goolsbee is still on the dovish side but he wouldn't commit. >> taken on the whole, the market is fluctuating around, maybe this report was just strong enough. unemployment rate. it's all very confusing. >> it is confusing i don't know if i quoted "lord

of the rings." i think that's still right the quest hangs by the knife's edge next week's inflation report, it's supposed to be .3 if it were .4 if you went from 26 to 27 or 28 on the top line, you could get a pause. you might also get maybe more than one dissent i wasn't clear reading bowman if he was ready to dissent again. she could go either way. it's a little early in her tenure for her to be dissenting. she just kind of started but she could given if she disagrees strongly with the quarter point cut and the data is going the wrong way. >> carl, where does that leave you? what's going to happen this month, next month and so on? >> kelly, steve, i think there are many within the fed that now look back on that september half point cut and think that they moved too quickly. i agree with steve, it might be more difficult for the chairman

to forge a consensus there was something for everybody in the job and i don't think that will win the day. 2% is still a little ways off. so i think that's probably going to cause some of the voters to pause a little bit i would just note that, steve, interest rates are still well above what most of us think neutral is and taking out an insurance policy against rising unemployment is probably in the order. many of the statements, as i see them today, are really positioning for what might happen in the first quarter of the year where both fundamentals and the perspective agenda from the incoming administration might make folks less comfortable about the inflation picture. >> in other words, carl, they're going to cut in two weeks' time you think? >> i think that's almost a certainty. i think it'll be very interesting to see how they're

thinking most go straight to the dots, i look at the balance of sheft in the back of the pack there had been a big shift in inflation perceptions in june where people were comfortable with the outlook i'm wondering if that will shift back because of the data and the policies in front of us. >> there's a couple of things i think that doves have in their pocket they're not definitive, but one is this notion that the housing numbers will be coming down. that is supposed to be happening. it should have happened already. there was some let up in the rate of housing inflation, rental inflation the other one is this idea that if you remember, kelly, we had a big bump in inflation this year. soon will be last year in a month it will be last year, and that will mean the comps will be better. >> yeah. >> that will help a little bit going forward. i think if you step back and you say to yourself, okay, do we need a 4.25, 4.5% funds rate with inflation even at 3%?

i don't think that's the case. if it's 3% and rising, that's another problem, but within the tolerance here, i think when powell talked about recalibration, i think he talked about bringing the rate down in order to put it at a level to whatever happened with the economy that was otherwise too high another thing i'll point out, wall street and companies that finance at wall street get the funds rate that the fed is going to deliver main street gets the rate that the fed is offering now and so if you're a small business, if you are in the mortgage market, you are paying high rates. you can cut the rate and wall street will get that future, but if you don't -- if you don't cut it, then everybody is stuck where they are. >> carl, not to also add an element here, but because of what's been happening in stocks and in crypto, do you think the

fed will or should take that into account as possibly meriting tighter policy rather than looser policy right now >> so as you know, they do look at financial conditions and individually and on a composite basis they are well into easing territory. even the fed's own index, bank lending conditions and long-term interest rates it doesn't appear capital is hard to get for borrowers. we have a 3% real economy in the united states right now and consumption is pretty strong so the risk that consumption will keep the upward pressure on prices is there. >> all right gentlemen, have to leach it -- leave it there, i'm afraid consensus is another rate cut. maybe the inflation data will change that, we'll see appreciate your time. let's try to translate it back into what it means for investors. my next guest says regardless of what the fed does, she's

finding opportunity in small caps kim forest when other people say small caps i don't pay as much attention as when you do. explain. >> sure. so i have kind of a weird view of small caps. if you are a billion dollars or more in market cap, you're a small cap. and i'm really looking for not just small u.s.-based companies, although that's good, i'm looking for companies that serve a niche and that's why they're small. so you might ask me, why am i looking for niches well, two reasons. if you are a good company and you have great product marketing, meaning that you know who you're serving and you're making good products over and over again, you're either going to grow into a bigger company or you're going to get bought by a bigger company and that's why i'm interested in you because i am growth at a reasonable price as a philosophy. >> sure. i mean, i -- thinking of you as a semiconductor expert, someone who does a lot with tech stocks

is why my mind doesn't go to small caps. >> right. >> obviously all of these companies have to start out as small, fine. do you have some names in mind >> sure. well, one is actually kind of proves my point. you might want to buy into it now. it's going to get bought by synopsis and it's called anss is the ticker symbol. it's interesting because it does multi-physics simulation i can feel your eyes glazing over, but what companies do is design products on a computer before they even, you know, get to the real world and make sure that it's going to live up to what the design specifications are. so it shortcuts the design process. >> and you like -- >> productivity. love that. >> you love both of the companies involved in that deal? >> it's nichy. >> do you like both of the companies involved in that deal? >> i do. i do it's being bought by synopsis

and although synopsis is solely targeted at semiconductors, ansis has a very nice product within their main products that serves that, but synopsis looks like it's going to carry on all of ansis's products. so if you're interested in that product and you like semiconductors, i'd take a look at synopsis as well. i don't think they're a small cap either. >> kim, broadly speaking when you're looking, this comes into the process when looking at 2025, at a time when the market is being described as frothy, peaky, whatever you want to use to sort of describe it, how are you thinking about it? >> sure. well, actually, your last guest made the point for me. we have no idea what the future is going to bring so why not hold quality companies at reasonable prices and see what happens. by that i mean, you know, go a little lower than the megacaps

and try to find good quality companies that are either going to grow into their valuation or they're going to be bought by other companies. >> the only problem with that might be they might be wrong. >> sure. >> or they might have a takeover premium built in, something happens. by the way, some of the reporting about what might happen at the sec or doj under president trump is that you might get ftc -- i'm sorry, you might get some push back on some of this deal making. it's not a sure thing that has an administration that has all sorts of m&a >> i don't think we're thinking if this is a race the green flag has dropped and we are off to the races. >> mostly companies go through this, should i build the product or should i buy the product? that's the product we're relying on, build versus buy there's a company doing what we want to get into anyhow and they're going to put the legal

resources together and try to make that happen we've seen this for as long as i've been an analyst, since 1999, so it's not easy sailing for anybody but it's a strategy for some of your portfolio. >> and one that might make sense right now in particular. kim, thank you for joining us with boca capital partners. coming up, we're live at the ragan national defense forum with the ceo of global foundries. shares coming off the best in 2 1/2 years. what's next for the company? we'll talk about what the new administration means for business but first ai is kicking off the 12 days of shipments and a new pro tier what does it have in store for day two? what's the future under the administration's new ai and crypto czar. "the exchange" is back after

this. >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

welcome back to "the exchange." lots to unpack in the tech world this week. tiktok is facing a ban president-elect trump just announced a new ai crypto czar kate rooney has the ai information for us jessica lesson is here to help

us unpack the significance great to have you all here kate, let's start with you what's the big announcement today? >> day two of shipments and openai did say some days we're going to get the big gifts, some days stocking stuffers today is more in the stocking stuffer. it is important. they are launching a model customization and you can fine tune openai's models with your own datasets for researchers, scientists. it's an improvement of the 01 model, algorithms and took us from advanced high school level to expert ph.d. levels people can use these for their own use cases. one big one they've been talking about on the live stream is health care. work being done on rare diseases and extracting disease information. a lot of potential up side for curing rare diseases bottom line, it does let researchers fine tune this, use

their own proprietary data to solve this which is one of the big up side potential wins when it comes to ai this company is set to roll out in the next couple of weeks or ten days we are expecting one big update, the sora model there's a lot more pressure to launch more flashy products and competition heats up, kelly. >> interesting kate, stay right there let's get to another headline which, of course, is, h'm, president-elect trump to select david sax as the white house crypto and ai czar >> sax influence is official cemented for this role since it's not full time as i found out, he will have dual roles. policy czar and investor in two of the most important emerging technologies his firm craft ventures holds positions in startups.

he holds in x and he will also be able to continue to make new investments in this role like other vcs who support trump, he views much of it through a little tech lens. >> so you are going to replace permissionless investigation and it will be the big donors who get their projects approved and the next mark zuckerberg is trying to do his little project in a dorm room somewhere will not know how to do that, will not know how to compete and at a highly political process. >> but it's a new age, new guard coming in. the now it is sacks and his new big donors and they vow to look out for the upstarts the circle includes president-elect j.d. vance who has called sacks one of the best friends in the world and musk who will be leading doge

also mark andreessen this all results in interesting webs sam altman was congratulating sacks and musk responding with a laughing emoji which is very much open to interpretation. >> let me turn to jessica here maybe you can shed some light on what the ai and crypto role will do because we already have an sec with a pro crypto appointee. that's in that lane. if we were to say what would an ar czar -- you know more about tech than me >> his mission is to be a really important adviser to the president and other key stakeholders when you hear the word czar in washington it does not usually could connote a role but rather

something you want to bestow on someone because you do want to take their vice and all of the people in the silicon valley, thinking that the regulation is standing in the way. david sax was his conduit to reinforce that the this news did not surprise anyone, shall we say that? because it was clear he was in this position and people are genuinely excited. deregulation, that's a big theme. >> he's been a big fund-raiser for trump, has he not? >> extraordinary. >> now they'll be able to make that role more public. one thing that happened this week, it coincided with deal book

all of the amazon announcements caught my attention and all of this is sort of on the grass what do you think the most salient point of view. >> absolutely, kelly i think it was a big week. aws held its annual developers conference reinvent. it's a major event basically every year when, you know, the big thing is everybody is trying to compete with aws. with ai it's microsoft and their part shepship to try to eat into the cloud share and they've taken a different approach on ai which is try to do a different approach the census that was different this week; their amazon is

training -- amazon chips this shocked me when i saw the news as close as we are to this because what it says is that, you know, amazon has quite a tool kit for the coming decades in ai from the chips all the way the news out of aws and featuring them as an event was quite interesting. >> kate, you were there. what do you make of that kind of part sher ship -- the significant of the announcements were done this week. one of the biggest perceptions, we talked to matt garmon at reinvent and he said, we have been slower to roll things out if you think about the analogy of how they went after third

party sellers. why wouldn't you sell your own stuff? which stra teej geekically now looks quite smart. they are taking a very similar tact if you think they're going to get commoditized, amazon can offer whatever commodity is out there. one thing andy jassy said on stage, he said jokingly, we're not doing ai because it's cool i think they are moving more slowly than the rest but betting that somebody used the analogy of a marathon. we're not even at the starting line of the marathon i think jess is right about all of the infrastructure. it benefits clouds it benefits chips. it's up almost 8% this week. massive week for amazon emerging as a bigger player there's questions over their relationship with anthrop pick

i asked matt garmin, why don't you buy the company at this point? >> wait until a trump administration perhaps >> yeah, maybe. >> the shares are up 8% without having to do so, maybe all of that deidre, that makes me think again of meta and it's been on an incredible tear even though zuckerberg is not a close kin to musk. no, the stock is not acting like that's a factor. now you have whatever is going on with the possible tiktok bet. i don't know if it's relevant once trump takes office. now they have a tailwind >> zuckerberg going down to meet with him, that is a signal let's get on board from big tech to little tech let's figure out how to work with the new administration especially if there are important tech leaders it all comes down to ai, right who's got the race

it used to be about the models it used to be about the technology to develop them who's closer to agi? who's in the best position to distribute generative ai and on that point, i think amazon does not have the same kind of platform that a meta, or google or apple does the ability to put generative ai in people's hands on google android phones so as all of this plays out, the race is changing. it's likely going to change again. we'll see who ends up on top. >> is there anything you would add on the tiktok front? or does that warrant further investigation in. >> the case that came out this morning was fairly definitive.

now r now it's to the president see himself. the sell road is by no means easy the question whether the chinese government would allow it, what could be sold. as of this morning, that's the direction it looks to be different. >> did you guys already tape the podcast or can you give us a sneak peek >> i can give you a sneak peek on the pod it hit this morning, actually. fresh off the press. we interviewed erin levy on more or less is a long-time founder and we're not sure what he's

doing. he was a big supporter of harris and has gotten onge board and is trying to be thought of and his thoughts on antitrust were not the typical everyone hates lena khan if that's an interest of folks, check it out >> thanks for joining us deidre and kate. out west for us today. up next, we'll go live to the ragan national defense forum getting in $1.5 billion and be how the em my industry could look we'll be back after this >> announcer: "techcheck" is sponsored by comcast business powering possibilities (♪♪)

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>> welcome back to "the exchange." one of the industry's biggest conferences is underway out in seemy valley california.

that's where we find morgan brennan and it's great to be sitting here with you. kelly talked about defense stocks, semiconductors key part of the national security conversation. it really speaks to this intersection, this growing intersection we're seeing between policy, industrial policy and supply chain and national security. you'd think about how critical technology and in particular semiconductors are to supply chains to security, economic security i think that all comes together in a con fwrens ference like th. >> you just recently got the $1.5 billion from the chips act. how do you put that to work now and what does that reflect in terms of this broader conversation >> little context. chips funding is a part of the government co-investment to

bring semiconductor investing back into the u.s. the first part is to bring a broader set of technologies into our existing facility in upstate new york and modernizing our facility in vermont. then as demand in our industry starts to pick up again in the auto industry, smart mobile device industry, we'll add new factory floor spates and create more capacity there. this is a journey, not something that ends and begins in 2025 and ends in 2025 this is a three to five-year program. >> do you think the u.s. can really truly do this, stand up a home grown vertically integrated supply chain for chips manufacturing here i ask that knowing that the foundry business at intel, for example, has been one of those

challenges that's a company going through its own strife. >> the united states can and the government can what's important is this can't be a start and stop. our industry is 50 to 60 years old so it's a relatively new industry this didn't just happen that's not in the u.s this is going to take a decade to correct it but the key is to start, make the steps but not, you know, one day it's in fashion, the next day it's not i think it's important that through administrations that this continues because it is a priority for our nation. >> is that what you're expecting with the incoming trump administration, that this type of policy, chips act, and media, that's where we go from here >> i'm absolutely confident. i can say that because the cheeps that twee look at nod

with commerce serkt and treasury secretary. they all started this. as it built momentum, administrations changed. got called different things. it was a program that started in 2020 i think it transcends this national security, economic security we need domestic capability. >> ge owe political landscape has been very intense. not in taiwan or china though. i wonder that diversification away from those key hubs has meant you've been fielding more incoming business? >> the answer is yes i think it's becoming more and more important we talk about the geo political risk, there's also geological risk of having such a high concentration of this important capability in taiwan mother nature could create a

problem for us any single points of failure in any business are problem ma testimony. wearing singapore, united states, very broad geographic footprint. many technologies we can source from one to three continents better resiliency. >> a macro question for you. what are you seeing across the business right now we know there's continued to be softness in industrial and auto. ism manufacturing seems to be trending in the right direction. i find myself having more conversations about maybe here in the u.s. an inflection in terms of the industrial part of the economy. how do you balance that against the rest of the portfolio? >> this has been a really long cycle other than, you know, the ai boom and the data center,

it's been a long cycle for industry in a little bit of the doldrums, low end of things. we are seeing things pick up it's because of the content that's required. automobiles, the units sold per year don't have to go up for our industry to grow because of the more and more silicon content. it's a growth because of a lot of the focus development and technology we've brought to the marketplace to serve the auto industry contend should have more we're seeing industrial i.t. with a little ways to go, still a little bit soft. but what will happen is as companies use more and more ai they're going to need to refresh that capability and it's going to start in the industrial space. >> we'll be watching for that. thomas caufield, ceo of global foundries. thank you for being here with us >> morgan and thomas caufield,

thank you very much. shares of global foundries have been down 26%. we'll have a lot more high profile interviews from morgan this all starts at 4 p.m. eastern. you don't want to miss it. coming up, tech regulation is just one wild card, immigration policy is another. we'll get an inside look at how the business community is preparing for a potential loss of labor after this break. (♪♪)

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welcome back to "the exchange" everybody. u.s. department of agriculture issued a federal order saying the national milk supply must be tested for bird flu. it comes as regulators deal with the spread of the virus among dairy herds. the department says more than 700 herds ationwide have been affected most in the top milk

producing state. stellantis will recall more than 300,000 heavy duty rams. the ram trucks involved in the recall are model 2017 and 2018 it is now possible to smell like the champaign of beers not sure why you'd want to do that, but miller high life launching a dive barfume that captures all the aromas of your neighborhood bar these include cedar wood and patchouli, tobacco, leather and chambacka. a now ri scent that will remind you of a bartender -- >> these are not the bars a lot of us are going to that's the nicest bar i've ever heard of in my life. >> that is really nice i like the -- can they get sticky floor aroma in there.

>> exactly old -- >> i'll be over at tyrannies later in my town today >> see you shortly. businesses across the country are bracing for the trump administration's changes to immigration policies. kate rogers is looking a the that are people considering whether there would actually be deportations >> absolutely, kelly there's no denying the impact immigration has had on the labor force with everyone from the congressional budget office. last year immigrant workers made up 18.6% the nonpartisan national immigration forum is pointing to sectors from construction, technology, agriculture, health care as the workforces that stand to be the greatest impacted by the loss of labor. >> american companies are going

to feel the strain on labor costs and we're going to be, depending on the skill level of the individual you're talking about, we're going to be losing the fight for labor. >> now the economic ripple effect will be varied of course. in some commune itiescommunitie rise prices can go up while in communities that have thrived with growing immigrant population, it could slow. immigration policy under the new trump administration could potentially reduce 20, 25 gdp growth from 30 to $110 billion now when asked about the potential impacts of mass deportations, the trump transition team said they would deliver on their problems.

it will simultaneously lower costs for families and strengthening our workforce. we'll wait to see how this works. >> impact next year, too, kate rogers right after this.

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welcome back job creation may have rebounded in november but the unemployment rate also went up. it's now 4.2%. while that's low, it's significantly higher than the 3.4% pandemic amount my next guest describes a slowdown in hiring joining me is ethan bernstein. associate professor at the harvard business school. he's the co-author of "job moves. this is a chance to check in on work from home and all of that the good to see you. >> thank you. >> could we set the scene by saying, how do we compare in this economy today as you would have thought three years ago in the height of covid with the

general availability of work from home? >> work from home is a little bit on the decline there are many organizations returning to office and that said though, work from home seems to be a fixture. it's here to stay. in some respects we're still figuring out what exactly will happen going forward >> right i mean, when you see the headlines about what they might do at the federal government and all of that, is there more to the story or is it as simple as that's one aspect that may be lagging the private sector in terms of the people who are back in office? >> it's a really interesting dynamic because at the same time you have that and this interesting sort of stable but lukewarm jobs report we got today. you also have gallup saying that there are more people interested in switching jobs in the united states right now than there have been ever within the last decade there's a lot of restlessness. there's a change from work from home and people trying to regain control with what it is they're trying to do with their work lives and we have a market that is stable but not completely as exciting as it's been in the last couple of years. >> it's interesting you say

there's a big interest in switching job but is there as much ability to do so as there was a little while back? what is the role ai is playing in this all of this for better or worse, do you think >> let's start with ai ai is interesting. it's almost becoming the situation it would seem where if i'm a job applicant my ai is competing with your ai it's making things a little more complicated, especially as people are really looking for more customized employee experiences and organizations are looking for more customized employee contributions so ai is playing an interesting role it's trying to make things a little bit better and at the same time it may be making things more standardized in the process. that's the ai piece of it. >> let me ask you about that some have posited we're going back to the older more clubby model where everything that happens happens from a warm intro, happens because this is a person we went to college together, i can vouch for them, or it's a relative or a friend or an associate and that is kind

of anti-meritocratic in some ways. >> i would prefer to think we'll go to where ai can handle the stand dar diezed merit of it and we'll come back to how can individuals make the progress they want in their next job while the organization gets what they want. part of what we try to do in the book is talk about the fact that organizations don't just hire people, people also hire organizations for a job to be done in their next role, in their careers and if we can help people make that progress, then people will stay longer, they'll be more engaged, they'll deliver more of the organization and i think that's where we sit right now. if ai could help us take care of the rest of it, then the human to human conversation could do more. >> how does ai help us take care of the rest of that? in what you're describing, it sounds like a person who's hired talking to their boss or whatnot about their goals for the position >> well, but these are conversations between managers

and people these are conversations between hiring managers and potential applicants but there's also the standardized process through which people have to go. part of the onus is on the individual out of the 13 chapters of this book, 11 of them are for the job seeker to make sure that they have a narrative that an ai can understand and, therefore, that the audience they're talking to can understand once they've had that narrative and figuring out the progress they're trying to make, then the manager can come in to help and the human-to-human conversation can happen. >> that's interesting. that might be the statement at the top of the resume, maybe in the cover letter or in an interview to craft your own story. if you need help with that, ask the ai ethan, thanks so much for your time we appreciate it and congratulations on the new book. good to check back in with you. >> thank you it's a pleasure to be with you that does it for "the exchange." the s&p and naas sdaq are hitti

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hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. glad you could be with us today. stocks are mixed following the jobs report. 227,000 jobs created, unemployment, that rate ticked

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