hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. glad you could be with us today. stocks are mixed following the jobs report. 227,000 jobs created, unemployment, that rate ticked higher odds of a rate cut did move

higher we have one more data point to ponder. >> barring the inflation report being hot, it looks like we are on track for a rate cut on december 18th. a judge upholding the tiktok ban. as we know, on january 20th, a new administration takes over. who knows what the stance will be >> who knows what will happen. a lot to change. this is worth following. it's the end of the eras tour taylor swift's tour will have its last show in vancouver on sunday it's had a huge economic impact. we will talk to the ceo of the hotel chain which owns best western about the impact that swift and the swifties had on their business and the state of travel right now that should be very interesting. >> a year and a half she trained by running on the

treadmill while singing. how you put on so many -- i know we are supposed to talk about the business side. how does she do it >> she does concerts that are every bit as long as a springsteen concert. hours long as a feat of stamina alone, not to mention the economic impact we start with the jobs report.slightly about thor the unemployment rate did tick up let's get reaction from the chief economist at pnc did this surprise you? the preceding report was soggy probably reflecting the effect of hurricanes and other storms as well as that boeing strike. was this a bounceback? is this what we should probably be expecting as we move into 2025 >> we have seen job growth over the past three months of 170,000, on average.

that's about what the economy can create given growth in the labor force. when you look at the last three months in context, weak october but rebound in november, i think it's consistent with a job market that's in good shape. businesses are hiring. wages are going up consumers are in good shape. >> let's talk about the future of the labor market under a new administration that may be deporting tens of thousands of individuals who are here in an undocumented status. what affect might a crackdown on not only illegal or undocumented but immigration more broadly have on the labor market >> a lot of the job growth that we have seen since the recovery from the pandemic has come from migrants, immigrants into the labor force. those people come to the united states, they look for jobs, given the tight labor market they are able to find them so i think that if we see a

crackdown on immigration, if we see deportation, that means slower job growth going forward. we just don't have enough native-born americans to fill the jobs that we are creating in the u.s. economy immigrants have been a key source of labor force growth for the u.s. we would see weaker labor force growth, weaker job growth if we have fewer immigrants. >> not only a crackdown on those so-called illegal immigrants, but potentially a reduction in the number of immigrants coming to the country legally would have a slowing affect on job growth >> that's right. before the pan democratic, we were seeing job growth of 125,000 or 150,000 per month now it's closer to 150,000 to 175,000 because of stronger immigration levels >> if there's reduced immigration and it is harder to

fill the jobs, is that in and of itself potentially inflationary? you will have to pay more to attract and retain workers >> at least in the beginning i think it would be. you have immigrants who are in jobs that pay high wages -- less skilled workers, that's less of a concern. for skilled workers, we will have fewer people in those occupations. businesses will have to raise pay to attract them. that does hold the potential to be inflationary. at least over the first couple of years >> i think it's important to highlight what we are talking about is if we get into next year and we start to see a slowdown in the monthly rate of job growth, we may not know if that's from a change in immigration or if that's from an actual slowdown in the labor market >> what we can do is look at labor force growth we get that from the bureau of labor and statistics

that will give us some sense of whether it's due to business demand cutting back on labor or a shortage of labor. also, we might expect to see the unemployment rate move lower if we see fewer immigrants coming into the workforce that would put downward pressure on the unemployment rate while upward pressure on wages. >> what do you see for the economy next year, specifically for the trajectory of interest rates and how the fed may process incoming data? what are you looking for in terms of rate cuts, for example? >> we are in a very good place with the u.s. economy right now. we have a solid labor market, consumer spending growth is good, household wealth is up that's supporting spending by upper income consumers i think we see the fed will cut in 2025. we are looking at a slower pace now than maybe we were a couple of months ago. wage growth in the november jobs report was pretty good

we have seen a little bit higher inflation numbers. that may mean the fed has a little more leeway to hold off on rate cuts while the economy will remain strong in order to make sure that inflation gets back to that 2% objective. >> thank you o much. great to see you enjoyed it >> thank you let's turn to rick santelli. what do traders thinks about the odds of a cut? >> it may be good news it may be too early to tell. let's start with the fed here is a two-day chart of fed fund futures for january, next month. we don't need to get into percentages or numbers or anything all i want you to look at is that it rallied. it rallied strong when the data came out when fed fund futures rally, it means less fed all i'm trying to demonstrate with that chart, we haven't changed. we are 70 plus percent for a cut

at the december meeting. january is nowhere near. it's hovering around 25% it's at the end of the month what this tells is that on a snap view from the market and all its participants, the minute the report hit, it wasn't a hot report and it's not going to make the fed proceed in probably any different way. when it does rally, that is a sign of easing that is something you want to pay attention to now, if we consider what the big numbers in the report were, as you were discussing with your guest, average hourly earnings, they were solid. fours were wild. these are good numbers if you look at the rate, it ticked up. that's something to pay attention to there's very little doubt as you look at that chart of the unemployment rate that it has slowly turned. it's now a question of the intensity and speed of the

increase finally, the big story here is, how differently 2s and 10s reacted to the number. if you look at the two-year, it was a very aggressive drop it has stayed down as it sits now, it's down seven basis points on the week probably not much has changed with regard to the fed based on this report. not more aggressive. not less aggressive. pretty much as it was before the report if you look at the ten-year, which is basically unchanged on the week, what we garner from that is, at 10:00 eastern, expectations from university of michigan, there were big drops, less than expected, and the one-year inflation rate embedded in that survey popped. i think that that's why it's different and it's probably giving us an early sign of what the fed should pay closest attention to in 2025, the unemployment rate and strong

wages pushing up inflation i think the reason the expectations was weak is because we know so little about what the administration really will do versus what they have said they may do back to you. >> did you see the political breakdown in the sentiment survey, republicans versus democrats? >> i didn't. >> this is -- grain of salt. remember for a long time, the sentiment in the university of michigan lagged because republican sentiment was very weak we saw a crisscross with inflation expectations, post-election they improved. it shows your point of view as you say about the uncertainty of what will happen next year depends on the philosophy that you hold >> you know, the issue with all that was is, everything has gotten so political. the discussion that you just had on immigration, i was pulling my eyelashes out. i want somebody to give me an accurate number of how many people have come across the border the last four years

nobody can give an accurate number the rest of the discussion without that number is really sort of meaningless. >> we know it's a lot. we can estimate. >> we know it's a lot. how much did that "a lot" cost versus how much did the jobs that were taken by some of those do for the economy try to weigh the good outcomes versus the expensive outcomes. without knowing that number, you can't weigh that to make a statement that if he impacts immigration and slows it down it's bad for the economy, i think that's way over the skis on the actual information we know i think that goes to the point of all these politics being imprinted on things like surveys to begin with. >> rick, as always, thank you. appreciate it. further ahead, a new year but potentially the same problems for tiktok. u.s. federal courts are expected to rule on whether the platform mubi bst adey the doj's ban in january. we have details when "power

lunch" returns

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welcome back to "power lunch. the s&p and nasdaq are hitting new records after the slightly better than expected jobs report, higher unemployment rate, higher odds of a fed cut the dow is struggling. our next guest expects the rally to continue to what she's calling the economy that won't quit she's the chief investment strategist at high tower she's a cnbc contributor even yesterday, we were talking about crypto mike said while bullish, he thinks it's looking frothy he said the same for the s&p

500. i moe everyone is talking about the buffett indicator. there's a lot to worry about if you worry we are over our skis >> we always worry i worry when i don't worry because that means i'm being complacent if you look since the election, the s&p is up 5.5% the nasdaq is up 6.7%. these are big, big numbers i think it's because it's healthy because we have a strong economy. 3.3% is what the current rating is this quarter. we will do 2.5% for 3% which is amazing. you have good growth it's an expectation of more growth coming next year. maybe it's not an acceleration but maybe it's just kind of a 2.5%, 3% environment we are in from the trump administration. there's a lot we don't know. growth is there. it's being driven by that very healthiest part of gdp, the consumer the consumer continues to hang

in because even though today's jobs numbers were mixed, overall we had decent job numbers. initial claims and adp services. there's a lot of moving parts. wages are good for the consumer. i know it's hot on inflation 4% is a healthy number for the consumer, especially as inflation has come down a bit. add it all up -- throw in a better ism manufacturing number. you have a decent economy, good growth, yes, the market is expensive. but there are sectors, specific stocks that are not as expensive. >> i assume you assume that the fed is going to continue on its downward trajectory on interest rates, which can only help equities, i would think. >> yeah. i think it's going to be less than what i think most people were expecting initially maybe we get the december cut.

maybe they make a pause. clearly, inflation is staying, if you will, at 2.5%, 3% we will see a slower fed cycle i don't think that's alarming. i would rather take higher growth >> another reason is because we went into 2024 with lots of people expecting seven rate cuts this year. we sure didn't get that. look at where the stock market is we have had two cuts so far. we had one in september and one in -- a month ago. otherwise -- we came into this year expecting a big downward pressure on rates. it didn't materialize. >> 100%. that's because growth was better than expected. margins were good. we had 8% to 10% earnings growth which nobody thought we were going to do. you know our friend larry taught us, stocks follow on the way up

and down >> let the winners ride. amazon, if you are energy transformation, financials, let it ride. opportunities for 2025, there are stocks that haven't had a great year it makes me nervous to see target and think, i don't know maybe you see something there we don't. why do you think these are going to become better stories in 2025 >> i think each of the stocksvillely stocks ville have improvement target, it's not -- for sure, it's not a traffic problem they had 2.4% traffic growth transactions were the problem. they had one off expense hit because of ports i think they can get margins back to 6% that gets you $9, $10 in earning power. las vegas sands, it's about recovery

we see double digit gdr. it's about them fixing the renovation problem they did renovations they lost market share zscaler, the stock is attractive given cybersecurity is such anticipate -- an enormous thing. you will see the big 10 players continue to gain market share and win. these guys beat and raised and the stock fell 7%. >> why has that not participated when so many of the others security stocks have done well >> i think it's the billings numbers that have been underwel many -- under whelming

it's not a demand problem. plenty of demand i'm trying to pick away some names that can -- not my entire portfolio. >> i love mean reversion great to see you >> have a good weekend up next, i'm going to do my tree as pretty as hers maybe invite her over. >> i want her to do mine. >> bitcoin breaking 100,000. the crypto has a tendency of pulling back just saying. we will explore ways to hedge in the market navigator when you're looking for answers, it's good to have

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it's up two-thirds of a percent. dom chu joins us. >> shift our attention towards crypto we had the massive six-figure. back above 100,000 mark. this is after prices backed off since crossing earlier this week with interest as high as ever in the cryptocurrency, this is indicative why you want to use a more risk defined way so you don't expose yourself to the volatility joining us now is dennis davit you have been an options guy we looked to in the past for this why would you use options? is it using the options on etfs the most efficient way >> yeah. had you asked me this two years ago, i would have stargazed. i would not have known where to

go there's been a change with the etfs being listed and options on those. i've been an options trader my whole life there's a transformation going on as bitcoin are out there and the options are trading on those. you can remove a lot of -- you get more clarity into what you are buying and selling and who you are buying and selling with. the options being traded on these, the crypto world -- i get a lot of grief -- i will get phone calls after this the design to own upside in crypto world outweighs the desire to own a dge. they are looking forwards this space. they are not looking for the 100% annualized return they are looking for dipping a toe in the space how do they do it without blowing up the allocation? when you look into the options that are traded on these, you

can do things where you sell three-month up 20% call and you can finance that by buying it -- sorry, you can buy it down 10% out of the money put and finance that by selling a 20% out of the money call that's completely inverted to what we are used to seeing in the equity markets that's a transformation as we move out of a pure speculative play in bitcoin and moving into an asset class that people want to own for longer term and lower the overall volatility in three months, you can participate by buying the 51 put and sell the 68 call you are in for three months up 20%. you can annualize that you are participating in an 80% return for every three months you reset this trade the key is you take in a little bit of money to do this trade. it's like a free insurance policy with great break even analysis on it you rarely see a trade like

this maybe in some high flying tech stocks. >> we are showing the graphic of this what we are showing is a sell of a 68 call. you bring in $3.20 you are buying the february 51 put for $3.50. it's a credit spread is that correct? >> yeah. it depends on when you take the snapshot of this when the data was sent in earlier -- we were trading below 100,000. now we are trading above you have to pay a small 30 cent fee. had you done the trade earlier today, you would have taken a credit in. >> i want to make sure the viewers see that the graphic says it's a net credit it should be a debit or 30 cent outflow for each of these moves. i want to make sure the graphic -- >> if i do what you are telling

me to do, what is my upside profit on my invested $1 what is my downside risk on that invested dollar? >> if you went out and invested in bitcoin and buy the etf on bitcoin, you will participate in the gains on that bitcoin up to 20% between now and february 21st above a 20% rally in bitcoin, you are out of the market. if the cryptocurrency were to collapse, you are completely out of the market down 10% you won't lose more than 10% plus or minus whatever the small premium you collect order paid based on the graphic >> if i put in $100,000, which would buy me one bitcoin, my maximum gain on this would be to $120,000 and my maximum decline back down to $90,000 if the currency -- the crypto craters

>> you give away the up -- >> a stop loss and a stop gain >> i was going to say, a final thought from you on this >> yeah, characteristically, you could never -- it's very, very rare you can have that kind of tradeoff in any other sort of asset class. equities, bonds, it's more like you have to pay more for the insurance to the down side. >> i was lost in the middle. you dug me out of the dutch. >> i was showing the graphic showing it was a credit. no you paid more for this than you took in, at least with that price. >> i have to think hard when it comes to options i really have to think hard. >> those options out there are smart guys i did it briefly it's a tough market. >> have a great weekend. after the break, it's the end of the era taylor swift's eras tour is coming to an end, as are the trickle down economic benefits

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welcome back to "power lunch. a massed gunman shot and killed thompson in what police are calling a targeted attack as he walked to his company's investor day in midtown manhattan a pennsylvania coroner's office said they located the body of a woman who fell into a sinkhole the 64-year-old was seen monday evening searching for her cat. a federal judge ruled today the u.s. naval academy can

consider race in admissions. it comes after the supreme court's ruling that broadly banned affirmative action. the judge in this case ruled military training schools should not be subjected to the same standards and said diversity is critical for mission effectiveness. >> thank you very much, pippa. . tonight, taylor swift performing in the first show of the final stop of her eras tour. it's out in vancouver. tough for travis to make it out there. likely giving another swift lift to the local economy during her stops in london and stockholm earlier this year, for example, it was such a surge in hotel occupancy and room rates as swifties flocked to the show here the bwh president

what did you see >> we saw incredible lift in occupancy and, of course, when occupancy does that, so does average daily rate as average daily rate and occupancy went up, of course, our hotels were able to benefit from the success of the eras tour. >> put some numbers on it. >> with double digit increases in rate and occupancy. >> you are private >> we are. >> i gotta ask. >> it varied london may not have seen as much lift because of the room availability versus stockholm, which doesn't have -- >> tighter supply. >> tighter supply. >> have you seen a similar phenomenon with other performers not as great as it was with swift? >> swift is exceptional.

it's an anomaly. there's not anything like her. look at the loyalty, her fan base, it's huge. absolutely huge. the timing of it coming out of a time when we couldn't travel, that's how i will refer to it. she launched that tour -- i think she postponed an earlier tour when it struck and came out of it with the eras tour the timing was absolutely perfect as well. i would note that when you see the people attending a concert or going to her movies, which is another interesting phenomenon >> ven for the movies you see boost. >> absolutely. some said it saved amc when you look at who is attending, it's parents and children it's friends when i see people going to it in the movies, it's always groups of people.

that's part of the experience travel experience economics as we came out of the dark time she was able to leverage experience, economics as well. then on top of that, you have the context of miss swift and her global business enterprise it's not just the concerts she's re-released albums, a book, the movies it has had a tremendous boost on not just hospitality but economics at large and i would say the psyche of the people the positive nature of it all. >> the cynics, analyst community would say, larry, how are you going to comp this these are tough comps for 2025 in all seriousness, with this incredible once almost generational event behind us, what drives trends from here >> people love to travel coming out of that era, the time

period when people couldn't travel, they longed for experiences. traveling together you have seen it when you travel in the airports and hotels are doing very well. don't bet against the hospitality industry is what i would say. 2026, you have the world cup coming that's coming to north america mexico, united states, canada, they are anticipating 5 million international travelers for that event alone. >> is that as big as swift >> well, you know, it will be slightly different because for world cup, you will have longer length of stay you have international travelers. >> three-week period. >> it's an extended period when you come internationally and go to miami or l.a. or new york, philly, they will stay longer swift may have had a shorter length of stay, but look at the

length of stay as also a big boost to the hospitality industry. >> we have heard from other hotel companies, a lot of the infrastructure money, a lot of those projects, even some chip projects have been a boon. is that something that we should -- you can give us a window on? >> i believe the infrastructure bill will have a positive affect on the hospitality industry, specifically extended stay we are very much engaged in -- we launched a brand last year called at home by best western we see that momentum a third of the -- the number is a third of the hospitality pipeline is extended-stay hotels we are looking to -- not take advantage of but be a part of that success story as well >> we didn't get to coach k. >> larry played for coach k at army army is having the best season

in decades >> beat navy i went to notre dame for law school army played notre dame it was a tough game in my family i'm hopeful that they will win the commanders cup trophy when they beat navy >> congratulations on the business and your career and for your service >> thank you. >> for the best western with a pool we stayed at in march saved us on a road trip. >> you gotta have a pool >> appreciate your time. a federal judge upholding the ban on the tiktok app in the u.s. there are steps to come before the ban can take full affect we will get you the full story as we head to break, there's time to join the cnbc financial advisor summit it's this tuesday, december 10th i will be there. others will be there industry experts will convene to discuss trends, emerging risks, strategies to help advisors better serve clients

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the fate of tiktok in the united states hangs in the balance as a judge told upholds the ban on it scheduled to go into affect on january 19th, the day before president trump begins his second term let's get to julia to explain what could happen. >> the court ruling saying tiktok's users will need to find alternative media of communication. it's able to the people's republic of china's commercial threat to u.s. national security, not the u.s. government tiktok does plan to appeal, saying the supreme court has an established historical record of protecting americans' rights to free speech. we expect they will do just that going on to say the law was pushed through based upon inaccurate, flaw and hypothetical information

resulting in outright censorship it will silence the voices of over 170 million americans there are a couple things that could happen first, president biden could grant a 90-day extension if it appears that a divestiture deal is in the works. second, the supreme court could allow the app to keep operating while litigation proceeds. or the supreme court could rule before january 19. then there's another wild card once president-elect donald trump is inaugurated on january 20th, he could choose not to enforce the ban. he did recently vow to protect tiktok meta, snap and alphabet shares are higher on the news because if tiktok is banned, they are seen as beneficiaries, potentially gaining tiktok's users, advertisers and create ersz creaters. >> has the president-elect's position on this tiktok ban been

sort of fluid? has it moved a bit >> well, remember back in president trump's first term, he tried to get tiktok banned this was a big initiative of his. that was back in his first term. he was anti-tiktok when he was campaigning, he said that his perspective shifted and he wants to protect tiktok one thing that's interesting is the people that are going to work for trump is split on this. it does seem like the most recent thing we have heard is that he does want to protect this app i have to say with 170 million users, it certainly would be unpopular to ban it. we will see how it plays out >> i had a friend joke she would move to china to use it if they ban it here. it's very pp popular. if the chinese ownership -- a lot of creators are told, they would have to divulge their

international to followings. who would be a potential owner in the u.s.? >> there have been a lot of potential companies that have been interested. this is a company that has a big partnership with oracle. oracle is providing the cloud infrastructure here. there's a question of whether there could be a consortium of companies, a combination of pe companies. we would not expect a company like meta or social media companies to be at all interested, because it would be a competitive issue that they wouldn't be able to acquire a competitor it's really whether you would see a consortium of companies, perhaps oracle because they have the relationship maybe with pe backing as well. >> we will keep an eye on those shares on sunday, kristen welker will sit down for an exclusive interview with president-elect donald trump his first network interview since the election

bcne in this sunday on n you will ulta beauty, a bige today. we will trade it and bring the mascara in three stock lunch next

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nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing.

welcome back time for today's three stock lunch. first up, we got ulta beauty one of the best performers on the s&p 500. fending off fears of growing competition and slowing demand in the makeup and skin care area your thoughts? >> something i'm familiar with i think ulta is obviously it's a surprise beat. the market was looking for a 2% decline. they had 0.6% positive really, it's just incremental at the edges. the market is saturated. i think the days of growth are behind it. the stock clearly found a strong

bottom at the 300 level. it does have a chance if they continue to have operating improvements, continue to buy back stock, all of those marginal improvements could push it another 20% higher over the next 12 to 18 months mildly positive. nothing wrong with it. it's not really a home run at this point >> i was surprised it had that big of a reaction. still down 12% this year docusign, another huge mover, up 25% after topping estimates for third quarter earnings and revenue. up 27% now year to date, up 80% what do you think? >> this is a clear winner. one example where ai is having a major positive impact. one of the things that they have done is they have used ai to help customers analyze massively large contracts, saving them thousands upon thousands of lawyer hours in doing so this has resonated very well they are partnered with the

largest european notary -- digital notary provider. they are trying to become an a to z solution, trying to be the default choice we know that when something becomes a default choice, it starts to print money. to me, docusign is good. if you conservative, you may want to consider selling around 90, 95, 85 overall, a strong chance of another 50% higher from here in the next 12 to 18 months >> i used it this morning. thank you on that. let's get to gold. all-time highs this year it has seen a lot of volatility since president trump's victory on election day. down about 3% since election day. you came on after that and talked positively good gold. yesterday, the fed chair powell said gold is in direct competition with bitcoin, which has been soaring to new records.

your thoughts on gold? i think you think it's a good time for gold. >> i do. i think it's a misread by the market of what it means to have president trump having an affect on gold. people think that this is a strong dollar trade when president trump comes into the office historically, president trump is a marketalist. he believes in lower i er inte rates. that bodes well for gold gold is acting very much as a sovereign debt henl.dge. we have budget deficits in the u.s. and very, very serious problems, that could possibly create a collapse in the euro zone as far as the european economy, all of those things bode well for a position in gold at this point. >> thank you very much have a great weekend >> thank you you can always catch three stock nch by following our podcast on any platform you

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>> before we go, bank of america is upgrading dollar general, up 3% all the way to buy from underperform the company's back to basics strategy is working. altria is up to a buy. you can see shares are up 41%. maybe improvement in financing and mulson coors could be better than expected next year. they call tap the most trackive option in the consumer staples universe >> one of the stocks was earlier today was, she likes target. it's interesting to me -- here is a company that has had trouble getting out of its own way where the consumer is healthy. >> of course

what was interesting is she said, their traffic was pretty good the narrative that people aren't going to target wasn't the issue. it was the ticket -- what they were buying. she says they had to take one off charges for the ports back then >> inventory control >> if you can great weekend. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange make or break hour begins with surging stocks the major average is closing in on another 'tiff week, a third in a row we'll ask our experts including the wharton school's jeremy siegel in the meantime, scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation nasdaq is leading the way again as meta and amazon hit new highs. we're 2/3 of 1% there. alphabet and tesla are also higher so we're watching that whole space today closely. ub bher is having its worst week of the year on concerns over