all right. welcome to the fourth hour of "morning joe".joe." rebel forces captured damascus

yesterday forcing president bashar al assad to flee to russia. richard engel has the latest from damascus. >> reporter: it is ultimately how all dictators go. jubilant crowds tore down a statue of the now-former president bashar al assad's father, the founder of a dynasty that ruled syria with an iron fist for more than half a century. we saw the same scenes as pictures of the assad family were defaced at the border crossing where we entered syria this morning from neighboring lebanon. we are now inside syria, we just crossed the border. and you can see there are no controls anymore. the government is gone. there are rebels, gunman on the street. the regime has collapsed, and you notice that the second you enter this country. the mood is celebratory and welcoming. people are proud of this new dawn and still in disbelief that assad is really gone. as we drove to the capital, we passed boys on an abandoned

government tank cheering arabic for "freedom." in the end it was the army that sealed assad's fate. soldiers refused to fight. they faded away and ran as the rebels led by islamists rolled into damascus unopposed. the rebels' leader, once an al qaeda supporters and considered a terrorist by the u.s., is promising moderation and to work for all syrians. he has ordered his forces to prevent looting and leave civilians unharmed. so far, they appear to be doing that. the rebels' first priority is breaking into syrian prisons to flee thousands of prisoners kept in horrific conditions of torture and deprivation. syrians are rummaging through assad's empty palaces and seeing his lost life of privilege. a video claims to show assad's fleet of luxury vehicles, sports cars, suvs, and exotic collectibles. he won't be needing them in

russia. the russian foreign ministry confirmed assad and his family arrived in moscow, given asylum for humanitarian reasons. syria now has a new hope, new possibilities, and significant challenges as the map of the middle east is being redrawn by the hour. >> my god. joining us, former u.s. ambassador to russia, now the director of the institute for international studies at stanford and nbc news international affairs analyst michael mcfall. retired four star army general barry mcafterry, an nbc news military analyst. nbc news national security analyst clint watts is here. and contributing editor for "the financial times," kim gatas. jonathan lemire is with us, z. >> you've been living in and studying, writing about, reporting on this region for so long. and you've got to be thinking along the lines of -- of the

vladimir-lenin quote that there are decades where nothing happened, and then there are weeks when decades happen -- >> everything happens. >> this was -- this was shocking to us in the west. i'm wondering for those who live in the middle east and seeing a 54-year tyrannical reign dissolve in a week's time, what's the reaction there, and what are your insights? >> good morning, joe. it was shocking for people who follow this closely, as well. about how fast this happened, how smoothly it happened. there was in the end very little fighting, and the rebel troops from various -- rebel groups from various parts of syria, the north, the islamist group, the kurds got involved from the south, the -- everybody moved in and created the movement on bashar al assad.

when it started just last week, it's not even decades happening in weeks, it's decades happening in days. when it started last week, monday, and aleppo fell, nobody anticipated that bashar al assad would dissolve, that his regime would stop so quickly. we expected he would put up a last stand in damascus, but he didn't. the writing was on the wall. it happened gradually and then quickly. there was a confluence of events that made this happen including the fact he was ruling over an exhausted part of syria, an exhausted army that did not want to fight anymore, did not want to pay more -- more blood. the fact that iran, his key patron and supporter, has been weakened and its vulnerabilities exposed over the last year, since october 7th, and key, as well, is hezbollah. the shia militant group in lebanon that fought and found

its own capabilities and leadership mostly destroyed in lebanon in this recent war with israel. and finally, russia. russia's intervention in 2015 is what made it possible for assad to survive what had been a long rebellion already by uprising and rebel groups in syria. russia is otherwise occupied. there was a moment to seize by rebel groups and an understanding clearly by bashar al assad himself and his allies that it was over. >> general, of course, we've all heard that power abhors a new vacuum. what do you make of the new vacuum made in a matter of days, weeks in scattered shower syria -- in syria, and what concerns you the most? what are the gravest dangers ahead? >> you know, professionally, interesting to me to watch a major military regime dissolve,

come apart, go from ice to water in an instant. in this case, in nine days the rebel groups maced somehow to -- managed somehow to bring together kurds, islamists, all in a coalition to bring down the government. obviously as we all know, part of it was shattering hezbollah fighters. the idf gutted chase fire based on tactical ferocity. hamas has been largely destroyed. the houthis have now pulled back in their aggression somewhat in the south. and iran is now aware that the israeli air force with f-35 aircraft and standoff weapons can go after their nuclear structure after their leadership. and then finally, obviously the russians, putin's way out over his skis now, his country's a

mess. he's had massive casualties, he's going to try and hang on to the airbase and naval base that they have in syria. but nothing -- nothing else is going to work for him. underlying all this, though, we shouldn't forget was assad was a monster. that 53-year regime enslaved the syrian people and destroyed the country economically. so it's good news, we'll see where it goes. but so far we have reason to believe peace may be possible in a galactic way in the middle east. >> well, let us hope for the syrian people -- you know, it's always been so interesting when i have spoken with people in the intel community that have worked and gone in and out of damascus, they always talk about their love for the syrian people and the kindness of the syrian

people. i've heard this from one intel officer after another, they've always been surprised by the massive disconnect between the syrian people and the brutal government that has run. it let us hope for the syrian people that things can get better. so professor mcfall, we can talk about the weakness of assad, the weakness of iran, but really it all goes back to the weakness of russia. we have here the world's second strongest military that has been ravaged the past few years by war in ukraine as the general said, undertaking just massive casualties. even having to call on the north koreans for support. now economic woes with the ruble falling, and on top of that,

their clients stayed in the middle east which actually afforded them the opportunity to get into the middle east for the first time since 1973. now gone. what's the impact for vladimir putin and russia? >> well, first i want to underscore what a day of elation this is, yesterday. any time somebody like assad falls, this was a brutal, barbaric dictator, and when people are saying it's going to get worse, it's hard to imagine it will get worse. >> yeah. >> second, i think about this day and this time with tragedy, too. when i was in the government, when i was ambassador in russia working for president obama, we tried to work with the russians to bring about the very events we're looking at. we even talked about where assad might go. and the fact that putin decided not to go along with the international community and to double down on this guy and then bring his air force in, as kim

said, in 2015 this is a decade of blood in syria that is on putin's hands. and therefore, third, this is a good day for anybody who's in opposition to vladimir putin, including first and foremost the ukrainians, the russian opposition. he looks weak. he doubled down on a dictator, and he lost. and that is a powerful message especially for the ukrainians. but i hope for mr. maduro in venezuela, i hope for mr. lukashenko in belarus, as well. >> so clint, let's talk about the uncertainty this now creates. yes for russia, but also for iran. the middle east right now has undergone so much tumult since october 7th. and israel now -- on its proxies have been weakened. >> that's right. and in the that was kind of what he was taking credit or over the weekend was look at what he's been able to orchestrate. he disconnected the iranian

access that went through syria into hezbollah. you've got three nations or three subsets right now of threat actors, iran in a very weakened position. potentially, you know, on the edge itself. you've got russia which is at a strategic disadvantage and ukraine, you've got hezbollah which has been completely dismantled. so assad falls. you see israeli air strikes just over the last 24 hours going after missile depots, things like that. but that's grave instability. jilani, that name, that goes to the golan heights. that's what the roots of that name is. abu hamid julani, part of the movement into syria just ten years ago. this guy was not even seen in public without a mask ten years ago. now walking into damascus as the leader. there's a lot of uncertainty. people pointing to the taliban in afghanistan, we lead to look toward libya, what happened there where you have many

factions, can anyone bring together some order and it will bring instability so an stream extremist group can move back in. >> sort through all of the moving pieces here. because one of the things that surprised me as the rebels were moving toward what damascus was the fact that so many sunni arab neighbors who actually are allies of the united states now and even allies with israel were concerned about the fall of assad. that may not make a lot of sense to americans. can you explain exactly what israel and america's sunni ally neighbors -- of israel are thinking right now and whattator most concerned about -- what they're most concerned about? >> that's a great question, joe. first i want to remind you that there was a period when sunni regimes in the region were

looking forward to the downfall of bashar al assad, including saudi arabia which was the first country to suggest to the united states and to hillary clinton herself, secretary of state at the time, that the u.s. should help arm the rebels, and that took the u.s. by surprise in 2012, as early as 2012. and qatar and saudi arabia were at the forefront of trying to bring down or supporting the effort to bring town bashar al assad. and then eventually resigned themselves to the fact that it was not going to happen particularly after the intervention of russia in 2015. assad created a lot of problems for a lot of people around him, including for the u.s. and i want to underscore something that mike just said which is it's hard to imagine things can get worse for syria and for the region, but even for the united states. let's remember that bashar al assad is the man who helped jihadis across from syria into iraq. jihadis coming from all over the

world, cross into iraq to make life difficult. that's an understatement, for american troops in iraq after 2003. it was his presence and his continued hold on power after the rebellion started that caused the refugee crisis which be deviled the politics of europe and led to the rise of populism in europe. and you could argue eventually set the stage for brexit. so eventually and the other point also is that bashar al assad sat at the nexus of hezbollah, iran growing stronger in syria, and overseeing a terrible trade of drugs. and that is something that arab countries in the neighborhood were really struggling to deal with. so they started to try to normalize with bashar al assad, to try to get concessions from him for their own security whether saudi arabia or georgian or others. and that clearly did not pay off. now they're going to have to al with the fact that you are going to possibly see a vacuum,

a power vacuum in syria. countries like the united arab emirates are not going to be happy about the -- ruling alone or in transition government with others in damascus. there's this fear of islamist groups taking over power in the region. and then israel, of course, for a long time believed that the assad regime suited its interests because they kept the border with israel quiet except that eventually bashar al assad empowered and enabled iran and hezbollah on israel's eastern flank. from my diplomatic sources in europe over the last few weeks, around mid-october, i heard that the israelis had changed their assessment of bashar al assad and that he was now seen as the worst possible devil that they could have. and they were ready to see something different in damascus and can mitigate that with air strikes as we've seen over the last few days. i think it's very important at this moment in time, a, to focus

on the joy of syrians, the huge relief in syria. also in lebanon, my own country, which was occupied for 30 years by the syrian regime until 2005 where the regime ordered the assassination of many of our leaders and imprisoned many of our -- of our people. so we should focus on that moment of joy and help the syrians -- the second point is to help the syrians go through this transition and not be fatalistic about the fact this is going to be a disaster, it is going to be a divided country, or the list of challenges is too long. syrians have waited for this moment for 13 years. they've looked at the example of iraq. they've looked at the example of libya at tunisia. i think they've learned lessons. i think we should support them and ask region am countries not to bring their -- regional countries not to bring their power games and rivalries

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goes right back to shia versus sunni, where turkey, a sunni nation, has been essentially an enemy of assad. 15% of the country's shiite offshoot. so we're seeing the struggle continue between the persians and the sunni arabs. and then finally, i think the u.s. is actually -- has actually played a skillful role in this. there is no room on the ground for u.s. military intervention, clearly. the idf deserves our support, and i think we ought to acknowledge in the background we have the trump battle wave of influence, where the idf is emboldened, empowered by trump's, you know, public statement for support for hammering hamas and hezbollah. so we'll see. but we ought to be pretty optimistic. this is a glorious day for the

syrians. we ought to rejoice with them. > all right. former u.s. ambassador to russia, michael mcfall. retired four-star army general barry mcaffery. nbc news national security analyst clint watts. and contributing writer "the atlantic," kim gahat at that as, and kim's book "black wave: saudi arabia, iran, and the 40-year rivalry that unraveled culture, religion, and collective memory in the middle east." that's available right now. and coming up on "morning joe," president-elect donald trump says he cannot guarantee tariffs won't raise prices for american consumers. we'll play for you those comments from his wide-ranging interview with "meet the press" moderator kristen welker. plus, an appeals court rejects tiktok's bid to strike town a law that -- down a law that requires the app's chinese owner to sell the company.

we'll break down that decision and what this could mean for the social media platform. also ahead, the manhunt continuing for the gunman responsible for killing the ceo of united healthcare. the latest and new photos of a person of interest in the case. "morning joe" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working.

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let's get to our first "mad dash." opening bell a minute and 20. >> one of my themes is that you can have this virtual circle higher and nobody seems to interrupt it. the brokers or sellers. reddit, morgan stanley, engagement half a dodd lines flow, upgrade to overweight. normally at this kind of run an analyst might be embarrassed. might say, you know, i missed it, maybe the bus will come around again. this is -- i'm not going to pick this -- this is what's going on. this is how you get a stock to this level. what you have to think is maybe it was worth 300 all along and it's totally mispriced or the market in is overvalued. i think that the bull -- the bull case is -- >> incredible. >> absolutely. >> the came became public as you recall, you were positive to your credit. it hadn't made money in 20 years, the company. [ cheers ] >> no. i liked what steve is doing. i think he's done a great job.

for that you get a stock that is up -- it started this year. >> 400%. >> yeah. so the stock -- that is the theme for december. please don't -- [ bell ] [ cheers ] >> let's look at the opening bell. the exchange at the big board, the company celebrating its 100 at the nasdaq software company ptc. what's really interesting is how some of these indices around the world have been pretty stable in the wake of geopolitical turmoil. france is a great example. >> where's -- again, isn't anyone shaken up by these things? you wake up and say, well, this is pretty historic, this government that i've been watching ever since "the new york times" said you have the -- in aleppo. where are the sellers in europe?

if europe -- france is close to the situation -- they have historically been in power. elon, nobody cares. let's go buy. let's buy some stuff. >> what do you want to buy? what? whatever? >> i don't know. why don't you buy anything? >> you can buy apollo, added to the s&p. >> yeah. that's a -- that's apollo, that's to me what that says is upstock. >> apollo is up 100%. >> my god. >> in a year. is that -- >> the yahoo! finance -- >> couple months back i spoke to mark roane who has run the firm successfully. giant and private credit, insurance. obviously a key component. he did talk about it -- i asked him about what would happen if it got added to the s&p. and how he viewed that. take a listen. >> we mentioned indices. just out of curiosity, is apollo ever going to get added to the s&p 500? >> you know, it's not a popularity contest. if we have the opportunity for

our investor base, our investors would benefit from having additional liquidity in apollo stock. this is a decision completely in the hands of s&p. >> right. right. >> i'm told that flowers and candy and champagne are unhelpful. we'll go about our business, and the s&p will do what they do. >> maybe no flowers and champagne, but it got added anyway. you're talking about $105 billion market cap at apollo which we have been following with a bit more scrutiny. >> do you think that -- >> given the success. >> how opaque are they versus others or how transparent? >> what do you mean? >> so apollo makes its money doing -- >> i think you would. >> that's my impression. >> i think you would. he was the -- you know, in part behind that strategic imperative mark, buying the rest of it. it generates so much of what they can put in in terms of the private market for its own balance sheet. yes. >> blackstone doing very well.

comes back to what larry field was saying from blackrock, they're the new banks, able to move faster, get a lot more done. a reason -- >> it's true, the question would be we had johnny fine here, of course, who's ig at goldman sachs. investment grade. and i think it was leslie who had asked the question, what about competition? he's like, listen, big investment-grade things that are sort of off the -- they're not going to compete. it's much more specific and bespoke as they like to say on wall street. but that said, it's an enormous market growing very quickly as private credit. not without some who believe there are -- there should be some concerns. >> those of us feel it should be more -- are these companies short -- blackstone. are they short shirting the public markets and saying, listen, we can give you money? you don't have to come public -- >> yes. >> i think a lot of companies do not want to -- >> obviously it's debt and not equity. there is sometimes an equity component on certain

instruments. of course. we see this all the time. the companies are able to stay private longer. look at the numbers. think about it, jim. i reported last two weeks ago on the $6 billion that xai raised. $6 billion. openai, $6 billion. we think about the amount of money that can be raised both fresh equity, not to mention monetizing some of your employee base, as well, as they continue to do for example at spacex. and it's no wonder why companies are able to stay private longer and why they may want to because they're told, by the way, all the time by those who run public companies don't do it. i hear it all the time. don't do it. >> i hear it, too. if you noticed, a lot of companies like ashland rings a bill, old company. done a good job. that -- those used to be few and far between. we would have new deal, new deal. it would have to do so much work about the companies that are coming public. now it's like, hey, who is that? it's nasdaq, i don't know.

some -- >> you also don't have to -- you have to worry less about activism. macy's a good example of that today on this barington news. >> look, i -- funny. macy's reports -- i want to know what is really going on with that terrible -- more than $100 million, david, that in general all over the place. new activist. maybe the format is wrong. maybe -- you just don't want to go to a department store no matter what. because i look at -- i look at what's happening like, say, with ulta -- ulta's talking about how there's no room for sephoras, that means kohl's. i don't see reason for kohl's, i don't see reason for -- i happen to -- i don't know. i like going to macy's. i think it's important -- >> i've never seen a company more bes et company than nicy's. jeff smith was -- macy's.

jeff sprith smith -- jeff smith was trying to do that. >> and macy's over and over. this one doesn't go up. >> no. and by the way, they were -- at least taking a look at potential bids, as well, for the entire company to take it private. and just go private already. enough. >> what -- listen, it's yours? barington, it's yours? retire -- >> it's not easy. hudson bay trying to rose a boatload of money to buy neiman marcus, trying to raise $2 million -- >> why? why go to these places? just go to the catalog and buy stuff. it's fine. >> macy's is -- you don't like good to makingy snaeps come on. bloom -- macy's, come on. bloomingdales. >> special. special. special. >> special? what? what are you mumbling? >> he doesn't understand the that -- you were off. you were not here. >> he was here. >> no. i was here. >> you were here. >> i was here as i recall.

i did ask mr. mcdonald a question. >> yeah. and his answer was we're making a ton of money, you're not. >> so yeah -- >> isn't that what he said? >> i guess so. i don't know, jim. >> that's what you hear -- >> that what you heard? >> yeah. i'm making money, and i wish you were making more money. we had a great quarter. and everything that -- all the analysts said were negative, they were completely wrong. now the stock's on fire. >> stocks are the highest since march today, up another couple percent. jim, you mentioned the china stimulus this morning on x. and not just their cpi at a five-month low, but the new stance to more aggressive accommodations. >> they're using that kind of nonsense. i mean, it's -- sucks people in. the pdd going to do it, do it, just on fire as always. you got to buy some here. people can't resist. it doesn't matter. it doesn't matter that the chinese have been wrong over and over and over again and not put money to work. it doesn't matter. >> they do suck you in every

time with the stimulus promises. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> hello suckers. >> the first time around tepper was all excited. i'm reading what they've said. >> listen, the last four games they looked good. i'm not kidding. >> you're changing the subject from us discussing when he was last on "squawk box" taking about his football team. bryce young did look quite good. >> looked very good. yeah. tepper, he was right in the end. they -- >> bryce? >> bryce. they've lost a lot of games, but boy, are they close. very exciting. >> so -- yes, i know a few teams that were close. the new york region and just can't quite ever win ever. ever, ever. >> very close. yes, china once again, they had the sucking wound about real estate. it won't come to terms with the $7 trillion to $8 trillion. maybe they don't really have the money, okay. i know no one wants to hear that because they've got the belton

road initiative all over the place. but every industry they choose, they're allegedly dominating. they may not have the money, they don't have the horses. >> well, they're flooding the world with evs, jim. by the way -- going into today makes tesla a top pick. they go from 295 to 370. i thought we were knocking on the door of 400 this morning. >> i thought so, too. just a matter of time. that's -- >> tesla's moved since the election. >> wow. >> what -- this is a cleptocracy. what say you? this many billionaires -- >> or oligarchy, yes. i say i'm going to wait and watch and decide. i mean, they haven't even taken office yet, jim. still got another month -- >> it is our job to try to see the future even if you want to report on the past. >> i can't -- i can't -- i can't -- >> did you see that run nvidia? effectively prognosticate. i'm going to -- >> you're supposed to try to

draw a -- >> see around corners? >> yes, it's okay. >> deliver edge, deliver alpha -- >> that what you do every day? earlier, he's going to reverse the laws passed by the u.s. congress. executive action. >> just reading some of the chatter. the -- >> scuttle butt. >> yeah. i think that if you're -- if you decided that the ag, if u decide -- if you decide the justice department is a tool, it changes the equation. not since bobby kennedy, not junior, but the first one, remember when his brother was president? >> yeah. >> like hey, let's go after the teamsters. >> i do. >> that was one of those. >> i got a few things to get to on my little list. can i do that? >> i'm going -- >> if you want -- all right. should we -- comcast, our parent company, not for much longer, is down 2.5%. warner bros. is up, why, they signed a new carriage agreement. offer friends at warner -- our friends at warner bros. are excited by the whole thing. because remember all the heat they got when they lost the nba,

although they did come to a settlement. they were litigating and tame to a settlement. t -- came to a settlement. tnt hassing after this season. they're claiming they got no reduction in the sub fees for tnt. i believe that is the case, what i'm hearing. and aggregate higher sub fees for the networks owned by warner bros. discovery, the cable networks. they've extended their deal with sky in terms of hbo max. and in 2026 it's going to include a nonexclusive ad supported max app when they launch in the service in the uk and reland. it will be on sky available and then to everybody else. warner bros. is benefitting from that because i think there had been many who believed their sub fees would have to come down certainly when it comes to tnt which without basketball will still comprise baseball, hockey,

nascar, final four, ncaas, and -- i'm probably forgetting one other sport. >> they're going to get a couple hundred million dollars. >> who? >> not doing basketball. nba? >> they're doing -- remember -- right. they had that because they're going to brews the deal for the show for disney. >> yes. >> potentially. >> that's a good deal for them. >> but comcast getting hit on this. charter's down because i think there had been a -- perhaps that they would be in a more favorable position. maybe means better things for cable networks? maybe even those that are getting spun off into their own unnamed company? >> are you talking about spinoffs doing better than parent? >> just talking about the hope perhaps that sub fees will not come down as much as many seem to anticipate they will. >> david, that -- capitalize>> the entity will be well capitalized. i'm going to write a congress called "the enemy will be well

capitalized." >> david wasn't talking about the 499 companies that are valuable to us. the one he does talk about, we work for it. >> for now. >> for now. >> count the days. >> can i just say -- >> they're going by. >> why didn't you say that zazlov, ceo of warner bros., seems to have done well in this? >> bought i knew you would. i knew you would. >> sir, there i am. >> by the way, lot of the advertising that goes on those networks is the result of omnicom. we should get to it. one of the larger deals we've seen. all stock. it's.344 omnicomshares. in the end about a 60/40 split in terms of the ownership, the ownership base of public shareholders. >> okay. >> versus omnicom. they're taking about 750 million in cost synergies annually. so you can throw a multiple on that. but it's not having a positive impact on mnicom's shares. at least it wasn't -- there it is. no, it's still not.

down almost.6%. impacting the overall value of the deal. at signing worth $13.2 billion because it was a $35-plus deal. not worth that any longer. set to close in the second half. jim, you raised the idea of under the current regime would that be a combination that would get a lot of scrutiny. they're talking about $25.5 billion in revenue. that would be off of the 23 base. $3.9 billion adjusted ebitda, free cash flow of 3.3. this is all what they would be if you mashed them together now. you got to throw synergies in there. they don't have a lot of leverage, around two times leverage. that should go down if it goes up as a result of those cost synergies, as well. >> how about the fact that wrenn, mr. wrenn, ceo of omnicom, ceo since 1997. one of the longest running in america. >> 28-year reign as ceo. >> i think maybe -- >> there is say belief that gen

a.i. is going to make their business superfluous. >> say what you want -- >> and it creates it. >> we had harley finklestein last week. we have adobe this week. and we -- you know who is really able to and capable of doing things is -- >> funny you say that. b of a notes that mergers in this space not surprising because a.i. is coming fast, and advertising marketing is one of the biggest use cases. they mention and meta and google. >> app loving is doing great. i think that trade desk, tt&t, if i had to start over at the justice department, i would say wait a second, maybe we shouldn't go after google so much. this -- there's probably -- this -- trade is doing pretty well. >> yes. >> you don't think that? >> at least the french company has seen -- as having gotten ahead of some of this trend. bought axiom and the likes. >> this is down because people thought it was going to get in the s&p .

>> at 11? >> i think jeff green is the guy to watch from trade desk. the stock is down three. doesn't make sense. >> he's the one who's killing it. >> guys -- sometimes hate to bring it up, it's been interesting story to follow. i'm talking about u.s. steel, nippon. >> yeah. >> a long letter today about -- sent to u.s. steel employees from amori, of course, the man who runs nippon. he, by the way, going to be in the u.s. again this week. probably spending a lot of his time in washington, d.c. >> ought to come on our show. >> perhaps with the governor of pennsylvania who's become a key player here, josh shapiro. it is a letter devoted to telling those u.s. steel workers just how much more nippon will invest and how much better their future essentially will be under the control of the japanese steel giant as opposed to going their own way as our viewers may well know. president biden has expressed his desire to see the deal go

away. but the review is going to conclude really soon, by the 23rd of december. so these next couple of weeks will be crucial. there's some of the -- what we took out from the letter. working hard to engage. but unfortunately, you haven't engaged to negotiate the commitments they've made. jim, you and i spent a got amount of time talking -- good amount of time talking about this. the next weeks will prove crucial. are you talking about a stock that's below $40 for the $54 deal. if you get the outwhy where biden says -- outcome where biden says it will go through, they will close it immediately. >> nippon steel is better for the workers in terms of fwaurns than anybody else -- guarantees than anybody else is. why doesn't the -- the man who's going out, president biden -- >> i know. it's not like he got support from the unions. >> sure didn't. >> seemed to be all about. we'll watch it. i don't want to overdo it.

when we're talking about apps at $130 billion companies, you use -- >> small billion dollar company. >> you're right. you're right. at the same time, it has been politically to watch it has been -- >> 4.7. david, i'm talking about balance here. >> you're doing -- you're doing to me what i do to you -- >> yeah. i kind of am. >> getting tired of it. >> which part of it? >> the whole -- the kind of ridicule, the -- whole thing? >> $177 billion company. i'm ridiculed? i'm trying to make money for people? david is on the other hand -- >> trying to make money for -- i'm trying to inform. limited success apparently. >> okay. and the panthers almost won for you. let's check bonds this morning, as well. we're in the middle of a fed blackout. not a lot of commentary on take this week. cpi and ppi headed our way along with central bank decisions. australia tomorrow, canada wednesday. the swiss and the ecb on thursday. stay with us.

watch paypal today, up almost 2%. b of a this morning, upgrade to buy. they go from 86 to 103. the report is titled "turning the corner." they see a year after the sea level change, increased turnaround progress. investor day might be a positive catalyst, as well. starting out on the mild side. w 13. s&p down about 8. don't go away. i'm reminded that it's not about the destination. it is truly about the journey. (cheering) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪)

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jim -- >> the market even looks very similar to -- from what we're used to. there's a piece of bank of america, top pick chevron. 4% yield. got big gulf of mexico properties, have been very good at not spending money where this shouldn't. i got to tell you, if you really want to -- here it is. this is it. if you think that the middle east is -- if we would have said was a powder keg a few weeks ago, and now it's insane, chevron is the antidote. i don't know. the stock's up $2. >> we didn't mention trump's interview with kristen welker over the weekend where he said

his focus would be drill, baby, drill. and that came hours after their 25 -- >> talked about it on friday. >> yeah. he's got great -- great overseas stuff. great gulf of mexico. i think 4% yield and the possibility of craziness, that says chevron to me. i think this is a good recommendation. >> so what's the theme tonight? >> i'm trying to explain risk because i just feel like every night i have to explain to people that not everything's golden. bitcoin may not -- there's a possibility that bitcoin could go down. we know that. >> a possibility. >> the app world -- how do you get from $13 billion to $130 billion in one year? i have to explain that people are taking liberal risk, and maybe that's -- that's all, maybe that's wrong. >> the global equity inflow data does not lie. we know what's going on all around the world. >> well, everybody wants stocks.

>> but the insiders -- >> insider selling. if i were an insider -- u know to nice cashmere sweater. >> sure. >> going to sell $100 billion worth of stock. >> cashmere costs a lot these days. >> doesn't understand. if you joined the administration. >> you get it. you get to put it all in treasuries. not pay capital gains. >> i own a couple of capital gains. >> you want to join the administration? trying to tell me something? >> we'll see you tonight. "modmoney," -- "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern.

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hive digital technologies. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live from the new york stock exchange. take a look at how stocks are starting off the week, coming off highs again.

10% in the s&p 500, nasdaq, little changed as well. nvidia has been a big focal point with concerns around china weighing on that stock this morning. the dow jones industrial average up 2 points. we're kind of marching in place here as we get into trading here in december. we're 30 minutes into the session right now. here are some movers we're watching. shares of nvidia as i mentioned under pressure. the story is china's market regulator has opened an investigation into the chip giant over a suspected violation of the country's antimonopoly law. what it means for the stock in just a moment. it's down almost 2%. big m&a news, omni come, creating the world's largest advertising agency. those stocks heading in opposite directions on the news. >> and shares of reddit rallying, getting its price target raise to $200 from 70 at morgan stanley. reddit making its biggest push into ai, unveil ago new product that uses ai to answer user

questions. reddit's shares, by the way, are up almost 400% since its ipo and 190% just in the past three months. it's kind of been a sleeping big winner. as far as the overall market, and what's ahead, the big event of the week as far as the economy is going to be cpi. we're going to get our first read on november consumer prices, and remember, it comes as the federal reserve is quiet ahead of its meeting next week where it is widely expected to cut rates. thursday we'll get the wholesale inflation numbers, which feeds more into pce, which the fed targets, and then friday, import/export prices, another layer to add to the inflation story. some earnings we'll want to watch oracle, adobe, always big movers. but on the backdrop for the markets, as far as what's expected from the ed, i mean, there's like a 90% chance now in the market that the fed is going to cut rates at its december

meeting. the market took friday's payroll report in the belief it's going to cut rates in december, which i found a little bit curious. here was the payrolls report, 227,000 jobs added in november. yes, we expected a rebound from the prior month which was weak because of the storms, the hurricane's impact, the labor strike impact. we got that rebound. things looking good. if you put it, carl, next to some of the other data points we have received lately from october and november, pretty strong picture. how about ism, manufacturing, that's been one of the weaker spots of the economy since the fed has been raising interest rates. it's been showing signs of life lately. resurgence in the manufacturing index. if you look at the unemployment rate, and if you go back, i just did it for the sake of my lifetime to 1984, since how long i have been alive, and the unemployment rate is at 4.2%.

if you look at the gray bars, that's when it's a recession, and you can see the unemployment rate spikes. so the fed is so worried about unemployment and is targeting a labor market to not see the unemployment rate spike. we're not anywhere close to seeing a spike. now, they want to get ahead of it, and they want to do some risk management, and they don't want to see the unemployment situation get worse. but you could easily also make the case for why they should be pausing in december. even though the market is fully convinced that they're cutting. >> the unemployment rate has been below 4 1/2 for 37 months. >> exactly. >> in a row. which is the third longest streak since 1948. >> it's really vong. >> strong. >> and 50% chance they cut for a third time. i guess in the view of the market, we're going to get a hawkish cut, they will cut rates, they'll signal that they're -- i mean, they have been suggesting cautiousness and they're not in a hurry, but will

have to use stronger language to convince the market they're going to stop cutting rates. the market does see january as not another rate cut and two fully priced in for next year. it's because we have had strong data, and look at pce, core pce, take out food and energy. this is part of what the fed has been looking at in targeting. the latest read was a tick up to 2.8%. we have made a lot of progress, we're not at 2% right now, and we have been stubbornly stuck at this elevated level near 3%. this is going to be the debate inside the fed. are we making enough progress to continue to cut interest rates? and you know the question we always ask about why do people feel so lousy on sentiment, why do i democrats do so horribly if the economy is doing so well. we always go back and forth, well university of michigan put out their -- they broke it down by political affiliation and here is your answer. if you're republican, you're feeling pretty good, consumer

sentiment, that's the red line. if you're a democrat, your sentiment is actually going down. the only reason i wanted to show this is because these sentiment surveys, feed consumer confidence into economist projections, it's heavily influenced by politics. you can't make too much about it. >> this phenomenon is not new. >> it's striking to see the different directions about how the consumer is feeling right now. independence, i guess, gives you your best look, but it really is colored by how you view the world in terms of politics. >> it is remarkable. by the way, gas prices now, i think we're looking at a sub $3 a gallon national average, diesel and gasoline, at multiyear lows, even with all the turmoil in the middle east and questions about supply, crude can't get above 70.

brent was down four out of five. >> one, inflation expectations and consumer spending, and both things are lining up pretty well for the market and for the fed, which is why we continue to see this rally roll on. the backdrop is favorable from that perspective. >> we're going to keep an eye on two big tech stories as well. nvidia shares are down a bit on news that china is investigating the chip maker. apple's next iphone software expected to launch as soon as today. we'll integrate chatgpt, joining us at post nine, ben, good to have you. you seem to be excited about a home appliance at apple, at least you wrote it up. it's on a bloomberg story. it doesn't exist yet. why did you spend ink on this? >> it's only a few paragraphs. it is good to see something coming from them. i do feel like they could have a bigger role in the home, and we wanted to size the opportunity. it's modest.

but it's nice to have, and it could be bigger than the vision pro. so. >> sorry, jim. >> i know, that's not saying much. more importantly, though, you know, in terms of chatgpt and/or at least the ai future eatures many have been waiting for, and the rollout, how are you seeing that in terms of impacting sales of the actual advise? >> we have iphone sales accelerating over the next three years. we are excited about the software creating an upgrade cycle. it's going to be gradual, rolling. the features today, coming out this week that people can play with are very good. the integration of chatgpt, and by the way, they should get a cut eventually of those who upgrade to the pro versions of, you know, open ai's new stuff, and i think they will play a role there. but also i think that these visual intelligence features are really good, and people will -- it will build. you'll start to hear about it a little bit. it won't be people standing in

line for christmas. you'll hear more about it, emojis, there's something for everybody coming. and more and more siri, especially in the spring. >> it builds slowly, and the form factors start to change. we have a low end phone called the se coming out in the spring. then we see a slim version in your opinion coming out in the fall, and then we have foldables coming in later years. we see a multiyear cycle and we think the stock's teflon, by the way. there's been people trying to will this down. all it does is go up every day. >> it's basically in line with the s&p's performance this year. not bad, $3.7 trillion market value right now. >> where do you think we are in the arc of cook's tenure, and are people talking about succession at all or would be up and comers? >> look, they have jeff. they have a very good, you know, they have a formal head of ai from google. they have a very strong bench.

it seems to me he has energy to stick around a few more years. i got that question a bit with luca being the cfo for ten plus years and now moving on to a new role. luca did a great job of letting the street kind of see the light on services. >> of course. >> he did a great job shepherding us through. tim executed that. i think tim has energy left to see this ai thing through. i think there was some folks who doubted him, doubted the company, said, where is it, and then obviously he's shown it, and i think there's a little work left on the table, but they have to be thinking about it a little more at the company just given that he's, you know, getting into the mid-60s and it's a normal thing you should be doing. >> meanwhile, we've got headlines from reddit. it's a good example today, incorporating a new ai tool. i think it was docusign last week. >> yeah. >> are you starting to feel like the wave of use cases is broadening to things that touch real people's lives? >> i do. i think that we are excited about it. we call what could be happening

at ai halo effect is not just nvidia, but pc's smartphones, other things, networking infrastructure, servers, et cetera, will start to go. that will happen when we get more use case. and obviously jim talks a lot about salesforce, the things they're doing. this agent wave that we're going to see in software is a big deal, and we are seeing more use cases. and open ai is going to be a big part of it. and we are seeing 12 days of open ai, but wait for the launch that they're doing about their video ai product. and many more things. so we're getting more excited. we don't want to get over hyped. right now, there's a little bit of seasonality, maybe a pause with blackwell, we should see a big uptick. >> did you write last week, maybe there's some easier news on reuben? >> yeah. >> build in better numbers for '25. >> so we all know about black well, and then the next chips's reuben.

in between, there's a chip called blackwell ultra, which is going to potentially boost the back half of next calendar year. however, nvidia does seem to be asking their supply chain and their memory makers, hey, can you pull this thing up. we want to get reuben out a little sooner and the evidence is just stacking up. now, of course these launches are very complex. these are very complex chips. it's good to see them wanting to keep to the one-year cadence, and if reuben does get pulled up in 2026 calendar, you could see faster growth in the hundreds of basis points we said, and then that helps. there's a lot of folks right now, going, i get it. next year is growing 50% plus. about '26. these are the types of things. if we get 30% growth instead of 20, that stock is growing much higher. >> ben, thank you, sorry, getting distracted by other news as well. ben, thank you. >> good to be here.

shares up 19% on a bloomberg story, but something that has been around a little bit lately, and i was showing sara my notes as well, in terms of trying to nail down. the report from bloomberg is that mondelez is exploring hershey. it wouldn't be the first time they have done that. it was back in '16, i have to get my file here when they made an approach as well. pennsylvania got involved, the hershey trust as well. it didn't go anywhere. you may recall last week, i was referring to hershey and kellanova, because hershey was interested there, and obviously mars ended up buying that company. and so the question did become, sara, you know, with having been in the job quite some time, early 60s, is there an opportunity to reconsider the possibility of being sold. mondelez shows interest.

not able to confirm what bloomberg apparently has. now, none of that means anything if you can't get past the hershey trust. >> this is the complication. we have been down this road with mondelez and writingley, they have a duel class stock structure. they have a class b common shares, primarily held by the trust and carry about ten votes apiece. and a further complication where pennsylvania law requires that the attorney general has to be provided advanced notice of transaction where the trust would be losing voting control. bottom line, there are some hurdles that make this unusually difficult to get done. clearly it's having an impact. the report says there's a preliminary approach to hershey. the deliberations are still in the early stages, and it's not certain. >> it's been around for a little bit. there was some reporting last week. there were people following jets of pepsi, which didn't amount to anything. you know, again, i have been sort of been following it to a certain extent, but your point

is the right one, i think, which is what will pennsylvania do. what will the hershey trust do but is there a way to get something done in the sense of if hershey wants to do it and working with the trust as well. jim katzman, a goldman banker, seen as perhaps key as well in kind of figuring, helping to figure that out. i mean, i'll leave it to you. you know the company better, sara, in terms of if they might be interested in finally trying to monetize because they can't compete. in a sense, they're domestic, they were unable to do the kellanova deal for any number of reasons. you find yourself boxed in. is it a good time to consider selling. >> right. and unlike 2016, the offer was rebuffed by hershey, even to begin with. perhaps, i don't know, the market is signaling that maybe they will be willing this time. mondelez is double the market cap of hershey.

they have oreos, so strategically it makes a lot of sense. they are internationally focused, emerging markets, europe, hershey is the domestic player for chocolates and sweets. both of them are finding themselves in a kind of low growth environment. they did well during covid when everyone was at home coming out of covid. snacking habits changed and consumer brands, this is not a new story, have had trouble keeping up with the newer, more director players and innovations. there's always speculation around this packaged food space around what might happen, and that gets investors excited about it in a world of lower growth, which has been the case for a while. >> hasn't done much of anything this year. >> exactly. >> strong dollar hurts mondelez a lot. >> and the glp-1 question. >> they dodged that. too early to say, we don't see it as widespread of an impact, but clearly if they are the game

changer, and become widely used it does raise questions about what it's going to mean for snacking in this part of the population. we're going to continue to watch it. they hershey's up 1%. mondelez down. last week there was speculation. >> pepsi was the name, people follow the pepsi jet in harrisburg, but in fact it was all over the state. didn't mean anything, and by the way, pepsi not interested. that said, if this thing is in play, you never know what's going to happen. >> true. here we go. i love when we tag team, snag some deals. here's our road map for the rest of the hour. riding the record rally, our next guest raised his s&p target for the next year. president-elect trump's cabinet is far and away the wealthiest in history, at least a half dozen billionaires, and that's not eskd ven including l

musk, we're taking a look at the group and how it could shape policy. shpi cisastailhrtm opng this holiday season. we'll explain that after "squawk on the street" continues after this. (agent) we've always said never sell a house in the winter. that's not true. with opendoor, you can skip the showings and get a real cash offer.

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s&p's a record high. some on the street are betting it could head higher in 2025. scott kroener lays out a base for 6,500, opco suggests 7,100, that's a new street high. our next guest raising his

target from 6,500 to 6600, barkley's head of u.s. equities link strategy. welcome back. great to have you. >> thank you. >> what do you see coming together in the next year? >> i think we're optimistic. first is debt exceptionalism, and the second is the fact that right now the consumer is in great shape. balance sheets are good. unemployment, even though it's cooling off a little bit, it still means that consumers are spending, goods and services. virtuous cycle between income and consumption. we put those two things together, remain optimistic, roughly 12%, very healthy and a pickup from this year. >> does your sector playbook

change as a result? >> a lot of changes. on the one hand, we continue to remain positive on big tech. the street has systematically under estimated when we have been on the other side. the flip side, we have upgraded health care to positive, used to be negative. good earnings momentum. policies, it is significantly under, and remains relatively cheap. we downgraded staples, ongoing margin pressure, ongoing volume pressure, and this is one of the sectors who exercised fair divvy of pricing power during the push forward, and we don't think that's sustainable. and at that time, staples company, our viewers skeptical, and indeed, turning out to be more elastic than what people thought. and that's one more. and then the upgraded industrials to neutral still not

positive. a lot of changes, big picture, the focus of the market remains big tech. >> does it need fed rate cuts to continue to climb? because as i talked about earlier, it's not so certain that we're going to get a bunch more rate cuts with the economy doing so well. >> i agree. i think our view is that valuations are quite full. valuations are not going to be source next year. it has to come from earnings. the principal risk we were concern about is the years going up. that has eased. it's come down 30 basis points in time. my point is that if fed was a little easy, that's not necessarily a problem. if they cut too fast, it's a problem. the economy is falling apart. and if it isn't, we have a problem because inflation is picking up. we are in a sweet spot where growth is moderating, but earnings are still robust, and valuations are full. you want to pay attention to

what multiples in the market. >> we'll see whether this cutting cycle can be different than the more tumultuous ones you mentioned. >> where is the atlanta fed gdp tracking growth, i mean, that's 4% wage growth. pretty good background. thank you. super micro in the green after it received an extension from the nasdaq, giving the company until february to maintain the listing on the stock exchange. they were delisted due to overdue quarterly and year end financials. it's been such a big mover. higher last month by 80%. still ahead, president-ectle trump's incoming cabinet, the richest in history. more on that after a quick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ (vo) whether your phone's broken or old, we've got you. with verizon, trade in any phone,

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welcome back to "squawk on the street," keeping an eye on the bank stocks, financials are the second best performing sector since october. one name in the group is b of a, downgraded from equal right from morgan stanley, we are

downgrading, prefer money centers with a higher skew to capital markets. b of a up 38%, under performing other big banks, their argument, they are a little more levers to a rise in the ten-year yield than their peers, and we certainly saw some of that narrative string earlier in the year. >> that large bump portfolio. also keeping an eye on shares of our parent company, comcast. broad band subs continue to be the focus, as you might imagine, and it is a forecast of continued decline in those subs that has the stock down some 6 1/2 plus percent. a number of media companies presenting at ubs's conference, and comcast's ceo of cable, dave watson took the stage, and i'll let you listen to what he had to say, but essentially it appears they are pointing to the loss of

100,000 broad band subs for the quarter, as they did in the first half of year. that would be a larger loss of subs than had been anticipated by the investors and analysts who follow the company. take a listen to what watson had to say. >> when you replay the year, though, and if you look at the first half of the year, we lost, you know, just about a hundred thousand, under a hundred thousand per quarter the first half of the year. you go into the third quarter and on the shoulders of the olympic marketing surge, the students returning, the seasonal dynamics trending, you know, fine, and then a competitor strike. those three things saw improvement in performance in q3. q4, to your question, resembles more of the first half of the year is what we're seeing. >> there you go. first half of the year,

continued declines around 100,000, if you follow him there. that's why the stock is getting hit. it's not related to the renewal of a carriage agreement with warner brothers discovery. warner brothers is excited about because they're basically getting the same for tnt even though it won't have the nba, it's about sub declines, and charter's stock, also getting hit to the tune of about 6 plus percent as well. broadband not a growth business. there's the questions of star link and what it's able to do in rural areas, and fixed wireless, which we've talked about so often and fiber efforts from the likes of at&t, and more so, fixed wireless with verizon and t-mobile. add it up, it's not a growth business. >> and the rationale, the analysts have been weighing in on it, should be a higher valuation for the broadband business, wasn't that the thinking? sglafs

that was part of it. you're sending off these even more quickly declining assets, but right now with the way the sub fees went from warner brothers discovery and this broadband thing, maybe we're better off being out there on our own. >> tbd on that. got what, a few months, a year? >> we've got a while, 11, 12 months, yeah. the announcements keep coming, president-elect donald trump assembling now what could be the wealthiest administration in history. our robert frank is here with that story and the surprising number. richard, than his first cabinet, robert. >> and that was a rich cabinet. this one even more so. the trump cabinet will have billionaires and millionaires than any in history, from mcmahon to howard lutnick, jared isaacman, the billion theirs on the official cabinet will have a combined net worth of over

$13 million. now, that is not including of course elon musk or trump's billionaire ambassadors, the millionaires and possible billionaires depending on how you count your wealth, includes scott bessent, dr. oz, and chris wright. trump is wealthier than any of his cabinet members with trump's current net worth about $6.4 billion. of course $4 billion of that coming from his stake in the publicly traded djt. the record wealth of the cabinet also creates unprecedented ethics issues and possible divestitures. howard lutnick said he will step down from his three companies and divest shares in the publicly traded bcg group, and newmark, he said he won't be selling the shares on the open market so perhaps he could be transferring them to sol kind of family trust or trust. chris wright will have to sell about $40 million of stock in his company, liberty energy. scott bessent could step down from his hedge fund.

there could be a key man risk there. maybe he unwinds that, unclear. since musk and ramaswamy are not formal members of the cabinet, they are just advisers, they are not subject to the same laws. we're going to see a lot of reshuffling of assets, perhaps divestitures, a lot of questions about what happens to capital gains taxes with the sales in the coming months, certainly after january. guys. >> how does it stack up, robert, do you know, against, for instance, the biden cabinet, which i know we're not talking about billions necessarily, but millions, right? >> the biden cabinet had an estimated total net worth of around $100 million, which sounds like a lot. when you compare that to the incoming trump administration, where just the billionaires alone are 13 billion, his previous cabinet, you know, you had a couple of betsy devos,

ross, you had a couple billionaires, this one, six or eight times wealthier than the previous trump cabinet, and multiple of the biden administration. >> robert appreciate that. robert frank this morning. when we come back this morning, new details emerging around last week's shooting of unitedhealthcare's ceo when we're back in a couple of minutes. for the better part of a century, harry & david has been making gourmet gifts that bring people together. to share traditions and make new memories. to bring us all closer, even when we're apart. no matter when and no matter where, life is a gift best shared. harry & david. life is a gift. share more.

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but i did get waiter number 2. because they know you. they can help you create a comprehensive plan for your full financial picture and personalized money management with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. . welcome back. i'm julianna boorstin with you cnbc update. a funeral service is set to be held for unitedhealthcare ceo brian thompson in a private ceremony as the new york police department continues their investigation into his deadly shooting. the nypd released two photos of a man who's a person of interest

wanted for questioning. it comes as nbc news has learned the scuba team is searching for evidence including the gun used in thompson's killing. national security adviser jake sullivan is set to travel to israel for gaza cease fire talks and to discuss the toppling of the assad regime in syria. syria's prime minister said today most cabinet members are present in the capital city to have damascus to work toward a smooth transition of power. south korean president yoon suk yeol has been banned from traveling overseas, as the government launches an investigation into his short lived martial law declaration last week. we could face rebellion charges. an impeachment motion against them failed to pass saturday. back over to you. >> such a weird one. thank you, julia boorstin. president-elect donald trump making a lot of headlines in a wide ranging exclusive interview on nbc's "meet the press" saying he will not try to remove federal reserve chair jerome powell, and discussed what tariffs would mean for american

consumers. have a listen. >> they cost americans nothing. they made a great economy for us, they also solve another problem, if we were going to have problems having to do with wars and having to do with other things, tariffs, i have stopped wars with tariffs by saying, you guys want to fight, it's great, but both of you are going to pay tariffs to the united states at 100%. and they have many purposes, tariffs, if properly used. >> joining us to discuss is the outlook for the administration, the fed meeting a week away, the economy in 2025. moody's chief economist, mark sandberg, good to have you. how do >> i expect tariffs. i don't expect 10% across the board or 20% across the board which is what president trump talked about on the campaign trail. i think he's obviously all in on tariffs. we'll get meaningful tariffs and

quickly. you can push the tariffs through executive order, so i expect by the spring, summer, particularly chinese imports will face higher tariffs. tariffs will lead to higher inflation. it's a tax on american consumers. companies that pay the tariffs are going to pass the costs through to consumers in the form of higher prices from everything from food and furniture, and cars and consumer electronics. there's going to be retaliation by countries, that's going to cost american jobs, and it's going to create a lot of uncertainty because tariffs on which products, which countries, over what period of time. there will be a lot of exemptions and a lot of uncertainties. so you add that up, that means higher inflation and diminished growth. that is going to be a significant weight on the economy in 2025. i don't think it's going to undermine the economy because i don't think president trump will take it that far. i think it's going to be a hit. >> when you talk about raising inflation, what do you say to those who say it did not do that last time in any widespread

meaningful way for american consumers, and i mean, there's more capacity now for retailers and other companies to eat it, especially if they get the extension of lower taxes. >> the tariffs last time, we're talking a different scale all together. president trump in his first term imposed tariffs on $350 billion worth of imports from china. here i'm expecting something, bigger, broader than that. at least that's what he's saying or talking about. again, not 10% across the board. just for context, u.s. imports $3.5 trillion worth of goods, you know, every year, so that gives you a sense of context. the other thing, sara, the inflationary backdrop. it is hard to remember back, but go back to the first term, inflation was too low. the fed worked to get inflation up. it was a battle to get inflation up. now just the opposite. we have an inflationary environment, the fed is battling to get inflation back in the bottle.

very different kind of inflation backdrops between now and then. we're going to get inflation if the tariffs go into effect in a broad-based way. >> do you think we'll get a response from the federal reserve. do you think the fed is going to cut at all next year? we have two baked into the market at this point. >> the fed has to adjust its policy in the context of the fiscal policy that it's getting. that's what it does for a living. if you get tariffs, and by the way, deportation of immigrants, same deal, it's going to raise inflation and diminish economic growth. those two key policies which are going to get into place quickly because of the executive orders are going to work to raise inflation and diminish growth. that puts the federal reserve in a tough spot. respond to higher rates or less rate cutting in response to the higher inflation or cut rates in response to the weaker growth. the answer is they probably won't know. they will sit on their hands and i expect a lengthy period when the fed sits on its hands and

does nothing. no further cuts in interest rates. >> i think the retailers and the consumer companies have less room to pass on higher prices than they did in the past. they don't have the prices power. we have seen a breaking point from the consumer. >> i don't know, i mean, the consumer seems to be doing just fine. look at consumer spending, it's rip roaring, on a real basis, 2 1/2, 3%. there are, you know, distinctions across the retail spectrum, but folks in the middle that cater to the middle income americans or certainly high income americans, i don't know, they seem to have a lot of pricing power so i expect a lot of pass through to those consumers. >> all right. mark, stay close. we'll see, mark zandi, appreciate it as always, from moody's. coming up after the break, the nvidia way and how ceo jensen huang built the tech giant. we're going to talk to the author of a new book taking a deep dive. a new programming note, a day away from the installment of

bc "cities of success. this time we're focusing on the salt lake city economy. that's coming up tomorrow night, 10 eastern time.

tariffs are front and center for the incoming trump administration, especially when it comes to china. but how likely would it be that china would retaliate with its own trade sanctions and just how would they do it? and are there companies that investors could turn to that would be immune from trade war melee. tune into our market segment later today on "power lunch" 2:00 p.m. eastern time.

we put our heart and spirit into the holiday season. behind every table you set, every gift you give, are local florists, farmers, bakers and makers. who grow and create with a passion. share the joy with 1-800 flowers. nvidia, as you know, is one of the most iconic businesses of the last decade. shares up nearly 27,000. that's right. 27,000% over the last ten years, and nearly 200% this year alone. a key figure behind the company's rise, of course, is ceo and founder, jensen huang. our next guest spoke with him exclusively for his new book titled "the nvidia way jensen

huang," a former bloomberg and cnbc writer, great to have you. >> so good to be here. >> you talked to him for the book, right? >> yes. . >> when was that? >> june of this year, i had an hour with him right after his cal tech commencement speech. >> how much of the book looks at the origins which are fascinating just on their own, and then the culture, and how the cultures allowed them to do what they do? >> i would say it's about half in half, it's a business history of the full 30 years of the company, and then a lot is focused on their distinctive unique culture, which i think is the reason they have been so successful. it's an extraordinary outcome, like you said, the stock performance is incredible. it's actually the best performing u.s. stock in history with any stock with 20-year returns. >> you make the point that a lot of it is do to jenson's blend of being a technical genius and then a business genius. >> yeah, so he has a unique combination that i think most

ceos don't have. every time there's an instance of where they're almost about to go out of business, he's resilience and resourceful. he comes out with solutions and funding that just come out of nowhere, and he's always been super charismatic ever since the beginning. there was a time in the late 1990s when intel was trying to snuff them out, telling pc makers, don't buy nvidia chips, we're coming out with something better, their sales pipeline dried up. and jenson went to his work force. he's famous for saying every 30 days we're about to go out of business. this time it was true. they were running out of money. and he told his employees, intel is out to get us. make no mistake, we have to fight back and kill intel. that sounds a little, you know, superficial, but the employees were inspired. they were working past midnight, one employee told me that she woke up at like 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning and said, i just worked at midnight, i want to go back to sleep. no, i have to wake up. we must kill intel.

so she was like muttering, she was inspired to work harder to fight. >> if intel, let's call it a handful of decisions by former ceos doomed the company to some extent, what are the decisions that on the other side that jenson made that obviously brought such great success? are there a couple that you could cite? >> i think one key thing, they talk about speed of light, working with extreme speed and velocity. if you look back at their video game history in the 1990s, they accelerated the product cycle from 18 months to six months. that sounds, incredible, right? typically a chip took 18 months to design and ship, and they said, no, we're going to do that every six month asks that drove their competitors out of business, and they're doing the same playbook with ai. it used to take two years to make ai gpu and october of last year, they're like, no, we're going to do that every single year. and that kind of relentless execution, improvement has shown

why they have been so successful for the last 30 years. >> what i like is you trace it all the way back to when they were a startup. often, though, you now, this is a very different company than it was back then. when the company gets very big, it changes. >> yes. >> right? structure, culture, innovation, that sort of desire to go out and kill and compete, what's your sense of what's happening now, now that it's become a multitrillion dollar company leading ai? >> so that's exactly the main point. the key thing that happens, i think, for most corporations in the u.s. is as they get larger, their dysfunction just breeds inside the company. you get endless meetings, indecisive paralysis. some sources told me it's like swimming in quick sand trying to get business done, google, microsoft, apple, bureaucracy, nvidia, jenson's culture has been able to tamper that down. if you do anything where you're trying to make your boss's boss

better, which i think is a big portion of the internal politics, he'll dress you down in public. he told me if someone is ever doing that, i will embarrass that in front of everyone. i do that once or twice, no one is going to do that again. that kind of flat organization and hating internal politics and slowness, he's so paranoid of being disrupted by a start up that's faster, so he has been able to drive nvidia, even though it's 30,000 employees, at the speed of a start up. >> right. we get a taste of his management philosophy sometimes when he speaks publicly. we can't wait to dive into this book. congratulations once again. "the nvidia way," jensen huang and the making of a tech giant. the price of bitcoin has risen. that said, how many of those gains turn into spending. steve liesman is taking a look at that question. steve. >> david, good morning, yeah,

for some americans, especially younger ones it's shaping up to be a crypto christmas. the surge in the value of crypto has led to a holiday wind fall that's affecting some spending, and maybe more to go here. bit pay, which converts crypto to dollars for online sellers and buyers said they have seen 9% growth in transactions in november compared to a year ago. some of the category gains they have seen, well, crazy gains in philanthropy. people are saying, might as well give crypto if you're going to give anything. gold, precious tals, apparel and fashion, consumer goods up 62%. luxury goods up 26%, and there's gift cards, you convert it into something, and it allows you to spend dollars. worldwide, the value of crypto up $1.9 trillion year to date. but $1.2 trillion in the past month. it's impossible to know how much in the u.s. and how much will be

spent. a recent fdic paper found $0.09 on the dollar. . an october survey by pugh, 17% of americans own crypto, 29% for those 18 to 29, and 25% for 30 to 49 year olds, 8% for those over 50. younger people have a much higher propensity to consume than older ones, so the crypto gains are in the accounts of people who are willing to spend them. this raises the question, should the fed be thinking about the impact of crypto on growth on inflation and economic activity? right now, crypto is not considered a financial asset so the fed doesn't have an ongoing measure of crypto wealth. guys. >> but it gets to this question, steve, about whether the rise in bitcoin is a threat to the u.s. dollar. i know the fed share addressed this last week at deal books, said it's more of a threat to gold. a speculative asset, than the u.s. dollar because the knock on

bitcoin always is that you can not buy anything with it, right, you cannot use it in transactions. so is that changing? >> i think that is changing. i think it's becoming more something you can use. but as for it being a currency, sara, i think one of the interesting things i heard in my reporting is that something that goes up this much is not a currency. it's an asset. currencies don't move. you follow currencies closely. they don't move like this. and that kind of tells you it's not a currency. it tells you it's something else. not quite sure exactly what it was, but i thought the chairman's analogy to gold makes more sense. what was really interesting about that, he was kind of down playing the stability of the asset, but the crypto people, if you looked online and on social media, they took the gold as a kind of badge of honor, the comparison to gold was a badge of honor. and people got excited about it. >> right. i mean, he characterizes it as a

speculative asset, not a store value or payments but it's a good debate, steve, thank you. we're going to talk more about it, i'm sure, in the coming weeks and months. steve liesman. it's the end of an era for swifties, taylor swift's eras tour finally comes to an end yesterday after 149 shows across five continents in less than two years. why are we talking about this? well, it's the highest grossing concert tour of all time, according to poll star and the first to gross more than a billion dollars, estimated to be double that, more than billion, while releasing a new album, hitting the box office records for her movie, getting named "time" person of the year. it was a cultural phenomenon and an economic phenomenon as well. those numbers, the $2 billion it grossed understates the hundreds of millions of dollars that went into every city every time the

eras tour came to town. we heard about it from central bankers, we read about it in research reporters. that is people spending not just on the concert tickets but restaurants, getting their hair done, outfits, it really brought in so much of an economic benefit. at one point, we were wondering whether the bank of england would be able to cut interest rates because it had a little bit of an inflationary spurt because she was at wembley for so many days. >> if that's true, why did billboard name beyonce best of the century? >> bad call on that one. for me it would be taylor. >> how many of her performances did you get to ? >> i got to two. it was cheaper to go in europe, i went to london. the resale value of the tickets was crazy high. you had to get lucky and get it for face value online. >> got it. we're keeping an eye on the markets, of course, do aoswncrs the board right now. we're back right after this.

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