the mets last season were only middle of the pack in attendance. i could bet you my house right now they're going to be right up there this coming season. so he's going to start to get some of that back. but no, as you point out, the gap between the haves and have-notes is growing. >> to find their steve cohen. >> for more, visit cnbc.com/sport. >> closing bell starts now. thanks so much. welcome to closing bell here at the new york stock exchange. apple's amazing run. the stock hitting an all time high. and morgan stanley will ell us where share wills go from here. in the meantime, the scorecard looks like this. mostly red day-to-day as you see some big give back for recent high fliers.

we're watching those, of course. sector wise, materials and energy are leading after more stimulus news from china. elsewhere, mostly red, too. it takes us to our talk of the tape. s&p events loom large. fed meeting. got some inflation reports over the next couple of days. dan greenhouse is with us live at post nine. welcome back. feel pretty good about where we are? >> it's hard not to. it's a good year for most sectors. it's a good year for most capsizes. a good year for most asset classes. i don't know why you wouldn't feel good. >> there in lies one of the issues. they say everybody now is too positive. on the doorstep of euphoria and it's knocking pretty hard. are we there? close? >> listen, i don't think we're on the doorstep of euphoria, but my view for the better part of a year, let's just acknowledge things are going well. economy's holding up. worries about the consumer have

proven false. then you layer on top just the idiosyncratic strength in the ai story and tech stocks. >> ever corp. decided, they say it's not extreme enough. like valuations are stretched. a lot of people think they're stretched. with they too much? they suggest not enough yet given the fact the fed's cutting and the economy's strong. >> listen. the only time you really know that valuations are stretched is in the benefit of hindsight. when it's too late. is 22 times forward earnings high? sure, but not as high as 24 or 26. until you go back down to 15, 18 times, you can't say it's relevant. why should tomorrow not look like today and yesterday and if the fundamentals behind the ai story are in place, i don't know why -- valuation is not a market

timing tool. >> given what i told you, new administration, feds cutting, economy remains strong. what does that mean for next year? i got a 700 price target from opi. >> i can get you to 700,000 pretty easily. >> seasonally, it's strong to begin with. >> if you have a perfectly normal december, you're going to get to call it 6200 by the end of the year and if you have the 10 to 15% earnings growth that's likely next year or forecast next year, that gets you up to 7,000 right there. now, obviously, it's a little more complicated than that, but no, i don't think 7,000 is a stretch. again, we're talking about the rotation. the bias is higher. what do i do in that type of an environment? is max seven going to continue to lead. my argument is there's plenty of

other stories beyond mag seven. >> is 7,000 a baseline look or everything has to go right or a lot has to go right to get there? >> i know for some strategists on the street, the bull case is 7,000. i think i'd put myself closer to the camp that thinks it's more of a base case. >> wow. >> you say wow, but 10% next year, 11%, not particularly off the charts if i told you we were going to be up another 25 or 30%, then maybe wow. but i don't think 10% on top of what we've experienced is -- let me be clear here. the mag seven is doing great. nvidia, 50%, oracle, evago, 10 to 15 to 20%. netflix is in that camp as well. you've got walmart and cost go doing exceedingly well. the demise of new york city office. take a look at the charts of

green and vernado. then the rebound in the docusign, lululemons of the world. dollar stores on the front lines. not terrible. there's plenty of different themes playing out here beyond mag seven that support the idea for higher prices. >> so the broadening is going to continue in the new year. we have had a resurgence of megacap lately. certainly within the last few weeks to a month. nasdaq's led the way. >> yeah. >> i mean, at a time where people were trying to suggest, many, that megacap was going to take a little bit of backseat and everything else in the market was going to be the thing that was going to carry the load. >> entering the year, i was one of those people. granted, our job is to find non mag seven type investments so i'm biased in that sense. i certainly thought you would have a strong performance from non mag seven type ames, but i

think you have. you've got mid caps up 20%. small caps up 20%. equal weight. >> i'm talking more recently. you know, just as there was like a building crescendo that the other parts of the market, the equal weight and the russell 2000 were going to be the places to really lean into for a while, they really haven't been. the russell 2000 is flat over the last month as i said. nasdaq's up more than 2%. it's become a megacap sort of driven then a lot of high flying other stuff like the app lovens and the palantirs. back to growth and higher multiples. so those trades that were once written off have roared back in a big way since the election. >> listen. we're longer term investors. as a hedge fund, we're trying to find ideas that work over one, three, five, even ten-year time

horizons. so the short-term fluctuations don't really play into at least my investment thesis, if that's plural, i don't think the, but we'll go with it. again, those narratives are playing out. i don't even, to that point, think it's necessarily a bad thing. ai is doing the bulk of the work here in terms of capital expenditures, in terms of the market, but again, you don't have to be exposed to just nvidia. you've got eaten and vertive and any number of other ai plays imploring people that you don't have to go to nvidia. to the point you haven't had any suggestion from any of these companies and you have not, that it's likely to cease. i don't know why that story doesn't continue into next year. before we go, you mentioned the new administration. the m and a story today with mondelez and interpublic. this is going to continue to play out next year. on the regulation side of things, throw up a chart of live

nation. lyv. that is a quintessential lack of -- a longer term one, i apologize. go back a year to show you the type of improvement the stock has had in and around the election. >> there you go. >> there you do go. that's emblemmatic of the themes that are going to continue to play out last year on top of what i would argue are bullish arguments. >> if you put up private equity charts from the fall until now, postelection especially. palo. >> listen, that's an m and a story. a private credit story. there's not super attractive valuations everywhere. those names have only recently started to get added. for a lot of investors that either willingly or not confine themselves to the s&p 500

getting added to the index is going to be a positive over time. >> let's bring in stephanie guild and marcie mcgregor. stephanie, you first because you had a front row seat here to everything that dan has had to say. do you agree or disagree? >> i agree for the most part. we're certainly in a market where mid caps and small caps should do better. valuations at 22.5 times, that's over the next year's earnings. if you believe that earnings can continue to grow, the s&p's more like 19.5 times for 2026 earnings. when you look below the surface, like mid cap and small cap names, they're three to seven times below what you see for the longer term in terms of average valuations. if you believe earnings growth can continue, i think the market is is not super undervalued. i do think the more recent drive of those large cap growth names might also be related to the

fact that the ten-year hasn't been rising as much. >> sure. it's come off the boil. marcie, dan suggested 7,000 for the s&p next year as almost a baseline outlook. not an everything has to go right outlook. you take issue with that? >> well, we're closer to 6700 but if i look at this market, we're teeing up a second year of 20 plus percent returns for the s&p. i think clients need to temper expectations a little bit. i think 2025 looks like a year with stickier growth. we're forecasting a 12, 13% earnings growth. if you look under the hood, this market has not only nice seasonal seasonal challenges, but three quarter of the s&p is trading above the moving average.

barring this narrowing theme wherever seen over the last couple of weeks. i think that's temporary. i think next year is about a fed that is still inching rates lower, an economy that's strong. profits that are growing from third quarter into next year and broadening. i think you get all 11 sectors of the s&p positive by spring. i think that's a really positive recipe, maybe not as strong as we saw in '20. >> if you're calling for roughly 10% next year, it would seem to me that you must think that some of the good feeling was pulled forward. i say that because if you go down the list of the things that would spur a good market, rate cuts, tax cuts, earnings growth like you suggested is going to be good. deregulation and a strong economy. 10% in that environment that i just painted sounds light. >> so i think a lot of the tail winds that drove a market and

helped us climb this wall of worry are still in place but to your point, a lot of this is priced in. we're going to have a shorter, shallower fed easing cycle this go around than three or six months ago. i think when we look ahead to next year, maybe get two more cuts. we've got to keep an eye on inflation. so markets may feel a little choppier. i think it's looking less about the index level and more about this broadening theme. so mid caps, small caps. you know, in a world where there's likely to be noise around trade policy and tariffs, small caps are the domestic producers in an environment where deregulation is starting to look more likely, they can really benefit there and i think interest rates will be stable. you all mentioned a merger cycle that's underway. i do see more opportunity in other sectors and segments of the market than just the index level. >> i will say the difference between marcie's 6700 and my

7,000 is like a good month. so i don't think it's, whether it's 6700 or 7100 where i think deutsche bank lives, it's not that much of a difference. to her point, in the third year, whether we're up 10 or 15%, whatever it is. in the third year, you're trying to figure out as an investor are the themes that are working going to continue working and if not, where should by otherwise? and i think the problem that a lot of investors are going to have is that ai theme is continuing to work. and so what we've seen for two quarters, four quarters, six quarters, eighquarters, is anytime someone has come on and said let's look elsewhere, it's at the expense of just tremendous performance from these names that continue to have revenue growth and income growth, eps growth, that far exceeds the rest of the market. >> stephanie, you say you wouldn't be surprised if we had another 20% year. maybe a lot of stuff has to go right for that to happen.

you tell me. >> we could but i don't know if it's going to be driven by the top ten stocks. i believe ai is a big driver of it but i think there are a number of good stocks that are below that and that's where i think you're going to see greater earnings growth. if you look back at trump 1.0, small mid cap stocks did well the first year until they put in the tcgia. it was really the tax cuts that helped those largest names so i wonder, like, can we go much lower for 21%. i know he's talking about 15%. that's a time where i could see maybe the s&p goes a lot higher. even maybe past the 7,000, but otherwise, i see a lot more benefit in some of the mid and small cap names. >> real quick, no one on the street thinks you're getting even one penny of additional corporate tax cuts. so if you were to get two percentage points, three, that

would be -- >> trump has talked about taking it down to 15. >> sure. >> also have a deficit to deal with. >> he's talked about a lot of things. the pushback on the hill is going to be you can't have everything and there's going to be costs for a number of different things. i just think corporate tax cuts and most people think corporate tax cuts are going to fall that way. >> unless they think that you think, you can grow your way of a deficit problem. >> okay. i don't think that, but okay. listen, i don't want to get political, but you need to cut some spending. >> marcie, i guess that points to risks that maybe you know, if it's anticipated these new policies are going to be inflationary, you have interest rates hovering higher than people suggested they would be. that's a possible issue then you want to layer tariffs on top of that, which may be another cause of those rates remaining sticky. how much of a risk is that? >> i think inflation is a risk that we have to acknowledge.

we know 87% of past inflationary periods see more than one peak and there's often years of a lag between the fact that inflation has plateaued basically for the last three months has me watching closely. you know, we get a cpi of course on wednesday. our view at global research is that cpi can tick down modestly in the data this month. enough for the fed to cut. but as we start to look towards the end of 2025, we have to watch inflation as a risk. especially if it led to the fed kind of reversing course. got to watch geopolitics. then the anchor of our equity overweight is that corporate profits are growing. so anything that really rocks that outlook would be a huge risk to us. i think we have to acknowledge inflation is a risk after three months of the progress really slowing down. >> we are reminded yet again you

know over the weekend of geopolitics. take tariffs out and retaliation out of the question and then you still have uncertainty in the middle east. power vacuum perhaps in syria. russia, ukraine. doesn't feel like there's a settlement there anytime soon. are we underappreciating potential geopolitical risks? >> i think we're overappreciating, whatever appreciation we're applying, is over applying. >> beyond a lot of geopolitical risk, headline risk here, there, and whenever. in the larger sense, the market has been incredibly resilient in that regard. >> i think that's right. i'm fond of telling investors there's lot a lot of mcdonald's in the ukraine and syria. so there's a limit to how much direct exposure the u.s. stock market's going to have, especially when you've got the

ai narrative. in the case of ukraine, there's grain and commodity and we invest in a couple of companies that are ukraine adjacent, but in the case of syria, i think you would be hard pressed to find much s&p 500 revenues generated in that country. >> but you do have, stephanie, because of the possibility of more tariffs then geopolitics on top of that and uncertainty in china, for example, whatever appetite there seems to be developing to invest outside the u.s. is starting to get more u.s. centric again. >> yeah, absolutely. i think part of that is the dollar. if you're going to go invest outside of the u.s., you have to remember what your returns are going to be in dollars. that's kind of been the thing. if our interest rates stay on the higher end and everybody else's economies are slowing down a bit, their interest rates may come down. you're going to have a stronger dollar and that's going to go against the returns you may have abroad. but i think the oil price is

where you've seen most of that coming through and that could affect consumers. >> if iran gets involved, syria doesn't have much output. if iran becomes, and that's geopolitically, that's the big problem, that iran's losing its proxies in the region. if there were an attack in iran, there's a different story. >> we'll leave it there. we'll talk to you soon. thanks for being here. let's get more now on nvidia and the move in semis with seema. >> with china's investigation into the antimonopoly practices is widely seen by the street as a negotiating tactic. it came after controls that take aim at the broader semiconductor industry. david sax says by launching a probe into the most valuable company in the world, china is

signaling it can inflict pain in the u.s. and if president trump decides to levy tariffs. it makes up less of the revenues today, now closer to around 10 to 12%. that's according to analysts' estimates. shares of nvidia are trading lower on this news and worth noting, have underperformed the broader tech sector since the u.s. election. >> thank you. we're just getting started. up next, swinging for the fences. the mets signing juan soto in the largest contract in professional sports history. we'll have a look at the staggering numbers behind that deal. whether more are on the way. what it means for pro sports in general. you're watching closing bell on cnbc. discovering innovation today, helps drive growth tomorrow. as a leading global asset manager, pgim has established a track record of

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all right. we are back. mlb free agency starting off with a bang. juan soto agree to be a record setting 15-year, $765 million deal with the new york mets. here so discuss is alec sherm. it's good to have you back on what it is an eye popping deal like we knew it would be. i guess my first question is what are you hearing from collective baseball about the reaction to this deal? >> i mean, i don't think it's much of a surprise because we've seen it coming for days in terms of the sort of eye popping nature of it. but what it does speak to is this growing imbalance between the haves and the have nots in baseball, which again is not a new issue.

but it does tend to get more and more extreme as you see these huge contracts being doled out, first to shohei ohtani, and now juan soto at 765 million. there are only a handful of clubs that can afford this. then you sort of have the rest of the league and you do wonder is this right for baseball. in fact, it's something that i asked dodgers co-owner stan caston about a couple of weeks ago. take a listen to what we said because the dodgers are actually one of the haves in the haves and haves not. >> doesn't help that our revenue per game is ten times that of a team on the bottom. it really isn't good for anyone. we have revenue sharing in our league so we hope to close that gap. i think there are other ways to achieve that. we see a lot of examples in the other sports. i'm not going to get into labor. that's not a thing that we talk

about. but i do believe that there are even better ways to maximize for teams and players than we have landed on yet and i'm hoping we make continued progress. >> so here you've got the president and co-owner of the dodgers who just won the world series and it's one of the teams that's able to compete at that level. even he's saying i don't know if this is great for the game. this is something i talked to adam silver about, too. he says the data is clear in the nba. more parody, better for fans, the sport. it's not something we've seen in major league baseball for decades. >> there's no salary cap in major league baseball as there is in other sports and it's not likely to change despite what kasten and others suggest. >> i guess that's the issue. the collective bargaining

agreement is coming up in 2026. why isn't it likely to change? because the players would have to allow a change and there's no incentive for players and the player association to say we don't like this. take a look at the results. in fact, everyone else in other sports are looking at baseball, man, i should get my kids to play baseball. they can cash in on these long-term, guaranteed contracts. this is why things have not changed in baseball for many years. it would have been to be a probably ustained lockout in order to cause a significant change. >> let's talk about this contract specifically because i think many assumed, maybe that's the right word, maybe not. myself included, frankly, that there was going to be a tremendous amount of deferred money just like there was for the shohei ohtani deal and in fact, there is not. which raises another issue that if this deal now sets the precedent like i thought the

other one would, it further decreases the pie of potential owners who have that kind of cash now to pay these contracts in the here and now and not have a lot of this compensation deferred down the road. >> steve cohen, the mets owner, told our andrew ross sorkin that he felt like owning the mets was almost a philanthropic gesture, that it was his civic duty to own the mets and to spend as much possible to bring them a championship. well, not every owner takes that tact and a lot of ownership structures are different as in all sports. steve cohen is a billionaire, is clearly willing to take on whatever cost is necessary to bring in players like juan soto. most major league clubs are not set that up way. either by the personal choices of their ownership group or simply the structure in that they don't have that type of money to spend.

it's yet another example of having no salary cap distinguishes baseball from other sports. >> he's also thinking he must be about big picture. you get a soto. your gate goes up. tickets and the like. your sponsorship deal values go up. your ancillary media rights goes up. then what else goes up? the valuation of your franchise goes up. >> yeah, that's true. look, the mets are in a particular situation again sort of the haves and have nots situation in major league baseball where they have a functional, regional sports network. a lot of teams don't because they don't have the right eyeballs watching the games or because their team is owned by a conglomerate like diamond sports which has gone bankrupt. that's due to the slowing number of people actually watching cable tv. so the reformation of the regional sports network model is also very much going to change the game in terms of how much

money each of these teams brings in. but if you have a billionaire owner that's willing to spend whatever amount of money. even if it goes over all of those additional revenue streams you just talked about, even if it's a money losing venture for him, he's still willing to do what it takes. that puts the mets in a different category. great news for mets fans today, but i think the rest of the league's probably scratching its head thinking is this really the direction we want this sport to go in. >> yeah. we'll see where it goes from here. they don't call it an arms race for nothing. alex, thanks so much for your insight. coming up, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close today. seema mody has that. >> less than 30 minutes left in trade and it's merger monday. full story coming up after this break. ♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks,

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less than 30 before the closing bell. hi, seema. >> hey, scott. two major ad agencies planning to merge. the deal if approved by regulators will create the largest ad agency in the world with a combined annual revenue of nearly $26 billion. shares are down 10%. hershey shares are climbing more than 12% after bloomberg reported that cadbury and

mondelez is making another attempt to buy the chocolate company. hershey shares on pace for their best day since june 2016 while mondelez is falling down around 2%. and take a look at solar edge. that stock up about 12% after the solar energy company announced it has started shipping its usa edition home battery. they said the product is designed to qualify for dmek domestic credit. >> thank you. coming up, apple shares hitting a record high today. one wireless company is warning of a slow start to the upgrade cycle. a top analyst lays out what he expects, why apple is still his top pick heading into 2525. closing bell's back after this.

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because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. apple investors banking on a strong shopping season but t-mobile's ceo warning of a slow start. steve kovach has more. >> this is come comments coming from the ceo at a ubs conference today. that sent t-mobile shares lower. expect a lot of the upgrade activity to happen in the back

half of the quarter because people are doing their holiday shopping at that time. normally, this would send apple shares lower but they actually hit all time highs today and this comes as we've been talking so much about the street's still trying to game out if apple intelligence is driving device upgrades. today, we were expecting chatgpt to launch on the iphone but we got another beta version instead. still expecting it soon apple said it will be on the iphone by the end of the year, but still, the most important artificthat and third party timed intelligence. developers haven't gotten their hands on that yet and we won't know until after this month for sure how well the iphone 16 lineup is doing. we've been hearing so much commentary about how it seems muted now and whether or not

this upgrade cycle is going to be elongated or coming at once. >> appreciate you, steve, for the report and the tease of our next guest. that's steve kovach. joining me now is eric woodring of morgan stanley. the top analyst. nice to see you again. welcome back. >> thank you, scott. good to be year. >> what do you make of what see vert has said today and how we should be thinking about this? >> sure, i have iphone revenue flat in the december quarter and that obviously does not imply a big bump in what would normally be a big holiday sales quarter. i am large i, at least directionally, in agreement with steve. and why is that? let's take a step back again. right now, only 30% of the installed base can get access to the most basic features of apple intelligence. 30% of the base don't have access.

that is what the key feature. so if you can't have that key feature, you're most likely going to delay your phone purchase. we did a survey that said 50% of iphone users that have decided not to upgrade this year decided not to upgrade, i should say the lack of apple intelligence availability played a factor in their lack of upgrade. so it goes back to apple intelligence and ai. this is what consumers are looking for. 70% of them can't necessarily get it yet. more of those advanced features are to come. we still think more of the ai driven upgrades are in the future as opposed to during the holiday period. >> let me throw something out that that might sound wrong if not crazy to think. the stock is up nearly 9% in a month. oh, just about a month ago, donald trump was re-elected. going to have trump 2.0. some has been made of how tim cook maybe more so and if not better than some of the other

tech ceos has made it a point to develop a relationship and a good working relationship with the president the first time around. apple has had some regulatory headwinds under the current administration. more may be in the offing, who knows. do you think any part of that stock's move since the election is because of a perceived good relationship between mr. cook, mr. trump, and what his administration might mean for apple from a regulatory standpoint? >> i think there's a small part of it. i think your characterization of their relationship is correct. kind of balancing the risk of xi, joe biden, and president-elect trump. we've seen historically that apple has been willing to make some changes to their manufacturing base to appease the president-elect. we think that they would be willing to do that again and as a result, we think they would perhaps be at less risk of

tariffs in that sense. but from a pure regulatory standpoint, you know, i think in that an anti red tape is perceived as good. i don't think that's specific to tim cook apple or anything just within tech. that's broadly speaking but when it comes to specific regulation with apple, you know, there's two things that apple is currently dealing with with the doj. one is the google doj investigation that is proceeding through the remedies phase right now. that, to me, is still the biggest risk that apple faces. i'm not sure that a trump administration is going to change that because the trump administration is the one that started that investigation. maybe they take off the worst case scenario, sure. but i don't think a lot changes there. the other regulatory investigation is the direct doj investigation against apple. you know, that's going to take some time to play out. that may be a little bit more at

risk of getting thrown away by the incoming president-elect. really hard to say what that might be as we stand here today, but again, it's not necessarily more less regulatory headwinds so to speak. i don't think those really change. i think it's more the pro business nature or at least perception of the incoming government coupled with the fact that tim cook does have a good relationship with donald trump so in the event they were negatives they were exposed to, he could help them get away with with skirting some of those tariffs for example. >> if you think this is a small part of the move, certainly i'm not suggesting it's accounting for it. just struck me that was an interesting way to perhaps think about it. what would you attribute the largest part to why the stock has worked so well even as we're talking about the upgrade cycle being so meh. >> two factors. one is just the general market. we've seen a general market melt up and i don't think pretend to be the equity strategist here.

i leave that to mike wilson and his team. but i think it's helped apple generally speaking. it's a higher quality company. there's relative safety and relative beta in apple because it is tied to consumer spending. if you believe that consumers are going to spend more in the future, that's generally going to be good for apple. the other factor i think is still related to this ai upgrade cycle and investors gaining conviction or wanting to gain conviction in the upgrade cycle next year. i don't perceive that to be a fiscal year '25 catalyst from a numbers perspective, but historically, apple outperforms six to nine months ahead of a product cycle. we're about ten months ahead of a product psyching right now. could you potentially be seeing the market pulling forward to invest in an ai upgrade cycle simply because we know that's going to be one of the biggest features to drive up stocks here? it's hard to say, but that's the

two different factors that i would think on why we're seeing outperformance. market and pulling forward out of that time period. >> good to talk to you. morgan stanley today. still ahead, we'll give you set up ahead of oracle earnings in overtime. that stock hitting a record high today, having its best year since '99. back on the bell after this break.

coming up, toll brothers among the key names supporting after the bell. we wilbrk l eadown the top themes and numbers to watch when we take you inside the market zone coming up next.

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diana oleic is tracking toll brothers. michael, to you first. down day, only one sector is green. got some key data ahead and we'll look head in ten day to a fed meeting. >> the historical playbook says the first half of december is a bit of a pause even in the context of a strong fourth quarter so this isn't that unusual. the average stock is down 1, 2%. we priced in a lot. the trend strong. volatility index perking above 14. to me, cpi on wednesday is sort of the last known potential catalyst or changer of the narrative. you want to maybe clinch up ahead of that. then just these high volatile situations that have reversed. a lot of the real momentum names. doesn't change the overall

picture but i feel the market needs to figure out if that's going to be a source of instability. >> there was no more money to go to stocks today. it went to juan soto. you got the big bag. of the money. all right, seema, oracle's had a huge run. now, the earnings have to live up to that. >> huge. yeah, that's right. shares have run up on this idea that the founder can pivot the company from old school software to one that is at the sort of forefront of artificial intelligence. investors now want further proof that this transition is underway with shares already up 80% this year. trading in record high territory. his ai envisions span beyond data migration. the tech millionaire is building a reaction center that will produce one giga watt of energy powered by nvidia's chips which

he begged the ceo for. clarity on new customers outside of openai and microsoft, that will also be of interest. >> all right. you'll tell us what happens and we will be watching. thank you so much. diana, toll brothers. talk to us. >> yes, toll brothers beat expectations during the last quarter. this latest quarter might be a little bit harder because mortgage rates moved sharply higher again. during the fiscal fourth quarter, august through october, it went from 6.6%, fell a little. then shot up to above 7%. toll is a luxury builder so not as rate dependent. also broadening its product lines, price points and geographies and it's increasing spec sales.

that could play into a strong quarter. >> michael, just looking at stocks that are down a bunch today. coinbase down 9%. palantir down five. talking about a lot of stocks that had a good run. >> the hot pockets as i've sometimes calling them. again, you know, you had these micro themes that have taken off and made its way into the discarded boom bust merchandise of 2021. i noticed the real real was up today. it's way below its 2021 highs. it had 20% short interest. it's almost as if this market has been hunting for areas of stocks. high beta, low ty. once you've been doing that for a few months, it kind of gets stretched and maybe feeling like it's time to take some off. bigger picture, it's trying to figure out if expectations are

growing too aggressive. it's next year. >> the consensus, up 10% ish is where the street's at. that's not crazy. market almost never goes up 10% in a calendar year. general bullishness, a tight consensus. the math gets really hard. talking about 70% of the index outside the mag seven is going to carry the s&p up 20% next year? it means if you're benchmarking to some of the best environments in history to say we can match that. we can lift 22% off, no problem. >> if you go from high beta and low quality to high quality, it's why you get an apple. >> it's almost like there's parallel markets where there's the investors saying things look fine, i'm going to stick with the quality. ride this trend. then there's the trading community which is very, very

overexcited and just sort of again, having fun at the markets. >> we'll have moderate losses today across the board. up solidly for all three. we'll take you into overtime now with morgan and jon. >> ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange, and stocks closing your session lows as nvidia and a number of other tech and communication service stocks drag the averages lower. that's the scorecard on wall street and the action is getting started. i am morgan brennan. >> we have breaking results on the way from oracle, toll brothers and 2 ai. >> and