for all the analyst calls and the top ones of the day, guys. i will send things back over to you, joe. >> very good, dom. thanks, we'll take a quick final check, i mean, for today, hopefully, on the markets, down about 80 points, as you can see now on the dow. nasdaq down about 26. we've got gains in the s&p, so mixed markets this morning. tough yesterday in he dow. we'll see by the end of the day. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. futures are a bit mixed. as we await cpi tomorrow. tons of corporate news from oracle to disney to boeing, a positive mention of google, has that stock up 4% re-market. our road map begins with oracle, sliding on its earnings and revenue miss.

the biggest laggard on the s&p ahead of the bell. >> plus, tesla is named a top pick at morgan stanley. it's getting a big price target increase. the stock is nearing a new all-time high. >> how about boeing. it's re-starting production of its 737 max. that's about a month after, of course, the seven-week strike by more than 30,000 factory workers finally was brought to an end. >> we'll begin with oracle this morning, down sharply in the pre-market. quarterly results coming in just shy of expectations, despite cloud growth fueled by what the company calls record-level ai demand. current quarter guidance a bit below consensus, jim. we were just talking yesterday about where the sellers were. they came out. >> they came out. very interesting. let me get to oracle first. look, when you're on an oracle call, it's very rah-rah. always about my forecast, we beat my forecast, and larry ellison jumps in and says, we're going to win. no one's even near us. our buildings are best. i actually like it now. there was a time when i said,

are you guys kidding me? but when you put on those points and make that kind of money, i think you're serious. i like the call. and i like what they said. and so did the analyst who is congratulated them. i think you have to be careful selling the stock, if only just because it ran up a lot. this might be the level to buy. but yesterday was a day, i was looking at bespoke david -- >> that's a great stat. crazy stat. all 26 of the russell 1000 stocks are up 100% on the year through last friday. we're down today. and hey're down an average of more than 5%. this may have been a basket someone put together to go after the companies that are up the most. and it did impact stocks. >> without a doubt. i think, yesterday was one of those, you know, in the hedge fund business, they called it factor risk. i'm not going to go into it, but one of the worst days since '22, in terms of the names are long and short and everything is sort of going the wrong way on them. it was one of those days, jim. not quite sure why. i'm sure you have some theories. >> well, one of my theories is that it's absurd, that these

stocks are all up. >> and you joked yesterday, pallen pal pallentire. >> applovin. >> and over 50 years worth of sales, trading at a volume worth 50 years. >> i like the minnesota vikings more than vikings therapeutics. they're 11-2. they can get in and go far. vikings therapeutics isn't going anywhere. lily announced a buyback at 15% dividend, i'll take that -- i'll take vikings cruise lines over vikings therapeutics. >> how about back to oracle. >> oracle's multiple is not that high. >> right. but the quarter itself is not -- >> and larry ellison -- you're going against larry ellison? >> you're not worried about bookings growth going negative? >> no. >> income statement, q2 and q3 guide falling short of investor expectations. free cash flow increasingly pressured by rising capex. >> they have to spend that money. the demand is that great. they have to spend that money.

you know, look, i like texas pacific land trust, that happens to have a big position -- it's in the permian. i like a lot of these specs now that boeing is -- that's how met. how i met my mother. >> just going through a list of names. >> do you want to go by microstrategy, fine. >> stop reading a list. keep focused! get to the list later! >> i'm not karnak, for heaven's sake. i'm just saying that a lot of these companies, carl, are companies that you would want to hedge! you want to hedge out some -- or if you're an insider, and i have a piece tonight that i've been doing for no huddle. if i were advising some of these insiders, are you just really letting it ride? don't you have any sense of self-preservation? >> there was a desk note hat tried to put yesterday into some context. one, they point out a lot of idiosyncratic stories like applovin, then the other was china, and sleepy sectors like

hershey and advertising. >> m&a is happening where three can go into two. we already had. >> the two chocolate companies that merged. >> sorry, what? >> chocolate companies, mondelez and hershey's. those are snacks. >> mound luizndelez making an a to hershey. hershey's stock was up dramatic on that news. the question will become the hershey's trust, as we made the point many times, back in '16, mondelez made a similar move. the attorney general of pennsylvania also got involved. so a lot of moving parts here. i wish i had more clarity myself. i'm not getting -- >> why do they like -- >> from some people on that hershey trust, to get a sense to their posture. that's the key here. i have believed since they were unable to buy kellanova, that hershey may have made a strategic decision in some way, and michelle buckets, the ceo, that maybe if we can't get

bigger, it's time to consider a sale. but the hershey trust will be key here. jim katzman is on that trust. he will be key in terms of where he comes out, i think, is what i've heard. he's not returning calls. we'll see, i guess, is where we are right now on this, obviously, the market digesting that significant move up yesterday in hershey's shares. >> look, mondelez is at its low. mondelez had a good quarter and no gop, even though they're just filled with snacks. you can get that -- david's probably not bought the yard-long toblerone. >> but i like -- >> they're easonal. >> it's most of the winter. >> i see you, malamars. and these strong departure of the cfo, monogodb.

the cfo, here today, gone tomorrow. >> do we know why? >> you moved past oracle very quickly, didn't you? >> i'll go back -- >> you really did. you don't want to talk about it. you wanted to hit your list. >> safer hit her numbers. i've been run over like david, i was going to y mack truck, which is much more of a cummins engine. and you would have tackle larry? i'm going to call larry ellison today, since he hasn't taken my call in over 35 years. i was sticking up for you, but david faber said you're not doing a good job. >> he's incredibly wealthy. >> his son, how's his son doing? >> david's doing very well. >> are you -- >> what are you trying to do here? i have nothing bad to say. >> i was just saying, i listened to the oracle call.

saffra goes on and larry goes on. they tell an amazing story.ycop are as equally afraid as of safra and larry as i am come on and say, congrats, congrats, congrats, thank them, and come out this morning and have the guts to say, hey, there's worries. they're cowards. . >> cloud infrastructure was up 52. >> thank you! >> to jim's point about safra katz on the call, take a listen to a piece of that sound. >> we expect cloud revenue to reach $25 billion this fiscal year. this is happening for several reasons. first, our cloud is faster and thus less expensive than other clouds. we remain the preferred cloud for ai workloads, as well as for non-grk gpu cloud infrastructure

services. in addition, our ability to deploy our cloud in many sizes gives our customers flexibility and our multi-cloud agreements provide customers more choice in how they can migrant their oracle databases to the cloud. >> there it is! >> what's interesting is there are some ai infrastructure play lists being built today. citi's a good example. it's apple, siena, dell, and coherent. not a lot of oracles. >> no, look, they are doing something. they're building knowledge factories. and you can tap into them. they make them cheaper. they know how to do foundry work better than anyone. and the stock is down only because it has run far too much and remember, nvidia had a good quarter and its stock is down

appreciably. >> i'm reading here now oobt google and quantum computing. i'm sure you guys saw this. but it's worth repeating. >> it took 14 years to do something. >> it's quantum computing, based on a computer chip named willow, needed less than five minutes to perform a mathematical calculation at one of the world's most powerful super computers could not complete in 10 suptillion years. >> what's the use case? >> how about how secrets to the universe? how about figuring out how to move at the speed of light? what do you think? you with me? >> i mean, i can come up with a lot of things. >> here's what i say to you. >> go in peace. >> do you remember the tribble episode. do you think you can stop the tribbles? i look at this kind of thing and

here's what i say, i say, as my charitable trust, i'm selling some that i have since 2014. because when i see this hype over quantum computer, i say to myself, you know what, even jensen's not been able to really figure out -- jensen wong, the ceo of nvidia, exactly how to handle quantum. so we're going to just decide that all the problems with google and gemini and not knowing where they are in the real world should be trumped by this quantum computing? >> taking nothing away from nvidia and their computer scientists, i would say that google's got some pretty good scientists, too. that would be my guess, given that they did come up with ai. they may not have commercialized, but they were there ahead of everybody else. >> although this piper survey today saying -- survey of ad buyers, they argue that google is one of the most ai-centric platforms. >> they have good ad buy, but i listen to jonathan kanter earlier today, and if the

justice department under president-elect trump is at all like kanter, you sign the monopolies, you'll be able to break them up and make them into a greyhound bus. >> you may be able to break them up, but doesn't mean that they're necessarily going to suffer. we talk about that all the time. >> the goal under jonathan kanter was to hobble them. i have used that in misery and you won't listen to me. >> i have listened to you. >> you did look like james khan. >> we have to go. >> you had that hair. >> thank you. let's leave it at that. after denigrating me the whole. by the way, safra catz knows i'm going to be right. safra knows. let's get to toll brothers after the commercial. >> we'll get to toll. we have some news though this morning. the suspect in the killing of united health care ceo brian thompson, as you may know, has been arrested and charged with murder. bertha coombs has the latest. >> good morning, carl. the man accused of shooting and killing united health care ceo brian thompson has now been

charged with murder in new york. 26-year-old luigi mangione is being held at a maximum security prison where he was arrested at a mcdonald's in altoona, pennsylvania, yesterday, when he was spotted by an employee who called police. they discovered that mangione had a gun with him similar to the one used in thompson's shooting as well as a suppressor and a fake i.d. with the same name the suspected gunman used at a new york city hostel. investigators have not specified a possible motive. the senior law enforcement official briefed on the investigation tells nbc news that gione left behind three pages of writing, that said in part, frankly, these par asites had it coming, referenced the health care industry, and say he acted ed alone. he said, i apologize for any strife or traumas, but it had to be done. mangione graduated with multiple degrees from the university of pennsylvania in 2020 where he specialized in engineering.

he also reportedly suffered from chronic back pain for years and recently underwent back surgery. mangione's family issued a statement following his arrest in pennsylvania saying, quote, our family is shocked and devastated by luigi's arrest. we offer our prayers to the family of brian thompson and we ask people to pray for all involved. we are devastated by this news. mangione is due back in court in pennsylvania later this month. the manhattan district attorney's office is expected to seek extradition. back to you. >> bertha, thank you for that. our bertha coombs. when we come back this morning, the tesla rally rolls on today. morgan stanley's adams jonas raises his target and names it a top pi.ck a lot of other calls to get to, including news in airline and travel, norwegian and american, upgrades of u.p.s., news on ebay as well. stay with us!

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march towards a record high. today, morgan stanley reiterates the stock a top pick, takes his project to 410. says elon musk's entry into the political atmosphere has expanded investor thinking around tesla's fundamental outlook. jim, thinks the aperture is going to expand way beyond cars. >> that's the whole -- you can't make it on cars, particularly with this most recent rally, which is really predicated upon the company being much more than anything involving vehicles. and certainly has to own self-drive. david, you know i'm a big fan of jonas. >> yes. >> but i don't like when you come in after this big run and you start talking about the rally and why it's the stocks should go from 310 up to 4 h. i'm questioning a lot of things, and i don't want the people -- >> you feel as though analysts are just coming up with price targets, not based on fundament

also, but because they feel like, well, the stock is going to go up on momentum? >> i service now on "today," and i'm beleaguered by these. people are going to come in today and say, listen, we're really fine. he just took his price from 310 to 400. the stock was at 200. where was the price target boost there? >> to be fair to adam, he was at 310 way before it got down -- >> that's true. i feel bad. adam is probably the most rigorous. i'm just saying, there are people who will come in today and say i'm rehearsal on tesla. and i just don't -- i fear that they'll get hurt. that there'll be a better level to buy tesla than this. >> your typical reminder from me about elon musk's -- the value of his stake in tesla, at 392, what he currently owns, would be worth $161 billion, but then there's the compensation package from 2018. which i've mentioned many times.

$303.96 million shares. that's worth $112 billion at $392. let's assume he wins on appeal, which i think any people will assume he will, when that appeal gets heard. $161 billion plus $112 billion, that's just tesla. that's not spacex, that's not x ai, by the way, where he has a $50 plus billion valuation going up from there. >> now your focus is just on his wealth? >> just his wealth. not his power in washington. >> whether you need self-driving, you need china. >> i'm more -- we talked about the fundamentals of tesla so many times and optimists, the robots are so important. only going to become more so. >> new video of the optimist, the robot. >> anything we can do, they can do better. and jensen's most recent talk on the big interview with wire, wail, very interesting. he said, we -- they used to be able to proceed. now they can't perceive.

and now they can reason. and when they can reason, we have to call the question us. >> when sam altman is talking about agi in the next couple of years, which is the focus of a lot of debate. i think it's interesting, because we had the optimist video here. we had sora yesterday out of openai. we have this google quantum news. the flow of innovation is getting insane. >> this is why these stocks are hard to sell. why are we selling some alphabet for the charitable trust. you're up so much. i'm not going to just sit here and let id ride. it's up too much. >> i'm not sure what we're looking at there. >> the idea that something is up too much and i have to do some selling. >> this is -- >> am i just like old-school, pre-knowledge factor. >> that's openai, where you ask -- you basically say, make this image for me. >> but address my -- >> yes, you are old and out of touch.

there you go. >> that wasn't thought how i would address it. >> just trying to keep up with the things we're watching with our own eyes. >> i think there were so many great things. >> quantum computing is real. >> i remember you telling me the copper mountain, that was the way to go. do you remember copper mountain? >> that was one of these 1999 things. >> one of the gold -- was it -- >> yeah. >> i was just saying, our google is that -- i've had enough. i've got to sake some take some. >> interesting, jim. we'll get cramer's mad dash countdown to the opening bell with one more look at the premarket. don't go anywhere!

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some opening bell gainers pre-market. we've talked about the alphabet news regarding quantum and this nice note out of piper. cruise lines are going to get some attention today after disney's presentation yesterday. goldman up upped norwegian today to buy, 35. micron, by the way, also on that list is commerce finalizing that 6 miiolln in chip subsidies. opening bell is coming up in a few moments. don't forget, catch us anytime, anywhere. watch the "squawk on the street" and opening bell podcast.

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let's get to it! mad dash. what have you ot?

>> i think one of the most important calls yesterday was not a tech call. that was toll brothers, the terrific high-end builder. they put up fantastic numbers, as they always do. the numbers beat. then they gave you a bit of a wake-up call that the next quarter's, their numbers so -- disappointing. i think they did say it's going to be the low point, and that really matters, but you don't want to see anything go wrong with home builders, because home builders have been that kind of thing, they've been strong. but deliveries for the next quarter, estimate was 2,153. so what this estimates is, they're not cutting rates fast enough. this is the only example, though, that i can find where the rates aren't being cut fast enough. but you could argue that housing punches above its weight. it's 10% of the economy. they need a mortgage break, this is what you see. this is the real economy and its

impact. impact. [ cheers ] >> not going to compete against that. >> let's get to the opening bell here in the realtime cnbc exchange with the big board. it is alaska air and its ceo. we're going to talk to him in the next hour at the nasdaq. focusing on organ transplant therapy. actually, pretty nice presentation about growth. >> very good and if it weren't be for the decibel level and the infection, it would not bother me one bit. really positive piece about american airlines today. and the group has been a winner. united is up huge, it's one of the best-performing stocks of the year. i think people are saying, maybe these aren't a trade.

maybe they are investments. against that would be the fact that boeing has restarted. the main reason why these have been investments is they have not -- they don't have a lot of capacity. maybe boeing brings a lot the capacity, but there is a level discipline that i have never seen in my career by the ceos, of airlines, not unlike david, the ceos of the oil companies. >> well, i didn't really hear anything you said, so i apologize, but you ended on the oil companies, so where would you like to go? >> when ceos decide to have discipline, you start getting terrific returns for the shareholders. a lot of people say that's not been the case, but it is. and you finally got great movement in the oils. >> when they actually started to return capital. >> and these guys, when they couldn't get planes within they were forced to be able to say, hey, no more capacity. i remember an interview with phil, phil lebeau, where actually, a couple of interviews where we said, we're going to

show some discipline. and i laughed. they don't know how to show discipline if their life depended on it. >> the angel-old story for holes, for airlines. by the way, arc lk is talking about double-digit margins, $10 in eps by 2027. ic i think the street's at 8. >> by the way, marriott got still one more price target. did you know that marriott did not have a great quarter? take a look at the stock of marriott after a not-great quarter. and that is about travel -- look at that! travel is continuing to be strong. every time i look at american express, i say, wow, that last quarter, everybody hated. but look at axp, look at what that stock has done. it's amazing. >> by the way, the international air travel association today 5.2 billion passengers next year. disney, yesterday, austin talking about oubling their cruise business the next few year, and this upgrade of

norwegianen. >> when frank ran it, it was all the winner. now it's royal caribbean that's been unbelievable. when i met with josh who's in charge of the ships for disney, i came back and said, they can't get those fast enough. those are all sold out. travel remains, years after covid, something pa people just say, you know what, yolo. >> and they have to close their eye when they look at the bill. because it's not cheap. >> and the business traveler is back. >> i had believed and was led to believe that there would never be a full return to the level of travel that had taken place prior to the pandemic. that things could be accomplished via zoom that had not been thought about previously, and therefore you would see a reduction in budgets. but it does appear that

ultimately it's returning to 2019 levels. >> and we also had an upgrade today. jake moyer of so green. the reason it ties. >> because it's return to office. >> so green does have a number of very zpishl office buildings in the new york area, including literally the most expensive one being one vanderbilt, right by grand central. >> which is gorgeous and has become a place that people come to when they visit new york. and this stock was absolutely hated for the last 50 points. even though when you had the company on with mark holiday, like i did. i found myself thinking, i cannot wait to get to midtown east. >> they've been able to refinance, instead of the banks saying, we'll take it back. >> so what happened to every bank, we were supposed to lose a bank. what happened there? >> nothing >> i think we actually kept it on a fairly level playing field. >> we being who? >> we, here. our reporting. >> our franchise.

our franchise? >> that commercial real estate, it never got to that crisis point that some feared. by the way, it's not as though there aren't a lot of bad assets still on plenty of bank balance sheets. >> we can't find them. >> that there aren't a lot of zombie buildings that they'll have to resolve in some fashion, perhaps with the building being torn down, it's too expensive to make residential, but completely empty. so there's still plenty of pain to come, but it did not bring -- >> it turned out to be stronger than we thought. >> there were so many ways to cry wolf. by the way, i'm not crying wolf on alphabet. i'm just saying, you know i've got a portfolio to manage. no one is crying wolf about the serious situation -- >> you myan sirius xm? >> oh, no, syria. >> oh, syria. >> sirius xm is a crisis. >> sirius xm did lower their

ebitda target. >> syria is down almost 10%. that's why i thought you were bringing it up. >> let's pivot to that. >> i was going to do golan heights. >> you have israel now trying to create this buffer zone. we're trying to decide whether we remove the terror designation of these rebels. you have hamas decimated, hezbollah in hiding. iran is in deep, deep trouble. >> that's why i wanted to bring it up, it's a perilous moment. i have been to the golan. when you look, you can see damascus when you have a pair of binoculars, if you go to the right part of the golan, not the part with the minefield. i did that by mistake. >> and all of this geopolitical tension has had what impact on the stock market overall in the last few years? >> that is my point. which is none. >> and yet that's something at one point i could have come in here and said, we have to sell and buy bonds, because we don't

know. >> it's viewed as either the world is going to end or it's not. >> that's why macro is so hard. >> and if it's not, we'll be fine. >> when chernobyl happened, people sold mcdonald's. now they probably buy mcdonald's. >> buy mcdonald's if what happens? >> i'm saying they don't care. they buy wendy's. >> maybe not. >> guys, another fascinating story that doesn't have a huge stock market impact, although there are public companies involved. >> murdoch? >> yes, the murdoch family trust. it is worthy of the screen, but it's already been done a. a show called "succession." it's amazing. they wrote the script prior to it. but there was an important case, it was heard this summer. it involved what is now a failed bid, though it will be appealed, to change the murdoch family truts so that essentially of

lachlan murdoch will have control when his father passes away or prior to the expiration of the trust itself which is in 2030. why, because his sib religions, three of his siblings, anyhow, has equal control that he does. right now, he controls the trust. he has four trustees, all of it through a delaware company called cruden. but that would go away pb there was an opportunity or a chance that was undertaken by achlan to do that. and the commissioner in this just came out according to those who have reports and those who have read the decision, just basically crush ing ing roourmt lachlan, their attempt here is, saying they acted in bad faith. going on, by the way, to also criticize bill barr, the former attorney general, who was a designee here as well. >> but the stock has made people fortunes. >> saying he demonstrated a dishonesty of purpose and motive. why am i doing this story?

not just because it's so dramatic, by the way, may have been all based on a false premise by lachlan murdoch. it's my understanding that his siblings really were going to try to actually collude and do something to take away his power over fox news, which he runs. but the question then becomes, what about the future of fox? does rupert murdoch choose to do something different. yes, they'll appeal. but that said, ould he consider a sale of all of it, especially if it could maintain the editorial stance it currently has, because that was at the heart of the concern here, that the siblings might change if they had equal control and got together, the editorial viewpoint and therefore it's underlying value. very unclear if that ever would have happened. but nonetheless, you can take a look at some murdoch properties.

fox has been a great stock, by the way. it has been the stock to own in media, old media, without a doubt. >> you want to own the spin-off here. i was once involved -- >> what spin-off? >> fox's spin-off. >> i don't know what you're talking ou>> broadband. >> that was comcast. >> we're still we. >> yes, we are. >> what did you ntion about a spin-off? >> i was once involved in a situation where i was not allowed to participate because of our rules, where i was going to be the person who testified and said, listen, none of this matters, because the stock is straight up, like that. and i was going to be the person -- kind of like a special master person to say, like, it doesn't matter. everyone made a fortune here. david, fox, tesla, what are these judges -- do they care that you made a fortune. >> it's interesting that you put those two together. because when you think about any potential buyers of fox, and there are very few. warner brothers, discovery had interest, i'm confident in the fox broadcast network at one point. maybe the stations, not fox news who would be a buy er if there

was ever a buyer of fox news, who would it be? >> is this a quiz? >> yeah, think about it. you just put them gether. >> oh, um -- >> elon musk. >> well -- yeah, he wants content. >> why not? >> fits perfectly with "x." >> for space-x. >> can go -- the spin-off? >> what? >> if you sign up for spacex, you get cnbc. >> sign up for spacex? >> sign up for starlink. why not? why don't you go make a deal. you get cnbc if you get starlink. i just paid $50 a month. 50 euro a month. i would like to get cnbc on my package in italy. >> that's just pure speculation. >> but if we're allowed to do whatever the heck we want, let's intermediate and say, for five bucks a month, get us. >> by the way, parent company of our network, comcast shares are down again.

now over a 10% move on that -- we brought it to you yesterday in the 10:00 hour. we were looking at it yesterday, the comments from dave watson about loss of broadband subs in the quarter going similar to the first half of the year. that would be about 100,000. that was more than had been anticipated. and the stock just cannot get a bid here. >> i guess it was the cable properties all along that kept it down. >> guess not. >> b of a, jessica comes to the defense of the stock today, reiterates 50. but clearly a little weakness. that ubs conference made a lot of news between eeteemu temu, content. >> i'm in a funk. i like toll brothers. >> maybe this will get you out of it. we were mentioning sorea a while ago, new text-to-video tool that open ai unveiled yesterday. take a look at this.

>> sam, got an idea for us? >> how about some ly mammoths walking in the desert. >> woolly mammoths walking through a desert landscape. let's maybe make it a wide shot. let's check out those woolly mammoths and see what we've got here. >> amazing. >> pretty good! pretty good. so here we can hover over our, you know, our variations of this generation, kind of get a feel for which one we might like best. and then we can continue to refine this with sora. i think i like maybe top right. >> me, too. >> let's take a look at the top right. now, this is cool, but now that i'm seeing the scene, i think it would be cooler if these woolly mammoths were robots. >> let's do it. >> oh, my god, we did. >> amazing. >> let's -- >> these are sort of like woolly

mammoth-ish robots. . >> yeah, kind of cool. >> that one walks amazing. >> that is pretty cool. that's amazing. so sora took our prompt of replacing the woolly mammoths with robots and did just that. we click in, we can see the original one here, this is a strong remix, and we replaced the woolly mammoths with robots. pretty awesome. >> jim, the implications for anyone in media, hollywood, news. >> advertising. >> omnicom deal. >> why do we need them. we could sit around with these. >> we can create what we need and why do we actually need an ad firm. you can give this to mark zuckerberg and say, if you run this between 3:00 and 5:00, the stuff that they can do on targeted makes it so that it's remarkable. you can reach every single person who is interested in this

cheap tie that i'm wearing. >> yeah, i'm in the loving it today. >> i'm not either. >> i'm not loving it. i got dressed in the dark. how about you? >> it was 3:30. >> the days start getting longer tomorrow, i think. >> do they? >> this week! >> not until the 21st. >> sunset is the latest it will be. >> after broadcom reports. could be, what? >> after broadcom reports. >> it's going to be a guide be? just a little bit. >> when we come back this morning, we'll get a sneak peek of "cities of success: salt lake city" the latest in our series that premieres tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. meanwhile, watch bond got a nice print on productivity. 2.2 and unit labor costs, 0.8 that is the lowest since q4 of '22. stay with us.

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premiering tonight here on cnbc, it's the third installment of our "cities of success" series and this time we're headed to salt lake city where rapid growth and a booming tech industry are transforming the city's landscape. they even have their own silicon valley but they call it silicon slopes. here's a sneak peek. as the sun rises over utah's mountains in the city of lehigh, just 30 minutes south of salt lake city, adobe's sleek campus stands prominently against the backdrop of rugged peaks. >> paint a picture for me what this looked like years ago? >> back in 2009, this was orchards and farmland. >> adobe svp wade shermans worked at the company for almost 16 years. when the computer software giant aquird a local digital marketing company, it seized the opportunity to expand its footprint to salt lake. >> adobe was the first company to set down roots in this part of utah, which then became the

foundation for tech to grow and explode into what it is today. and now there are a thousand companies within the silicon slopes ecosystem. >> the nickname, part of a clever branding campaign aimed at creating utah's version of silicon valley. and it's working. the region's become a draw for major tech companies, including microsoft and oracle. the tech cluster creating fertile ground for others to grow here. >> should we be thinking about it as comparable to the valley, as innovative, as ambitious, as big, as driven? >> i think we should. it's not at the size and scale yet of silicon valley and maybe it never will reach that size and scale, but in terms of the passion, the energy, the innovativeness of the people, i think it absolutely is. >> make sure to catch cities of success salt lake city tonight. adobe gets a lot of credit. >> i remember them telling me, come to salt lake city, jim. you have no idea. i did not know.

>> he just brought hockey to town. and goldman banking, industrial banking, and goldman's got a few thousand employees there now. >> great work. >> not to mention the olympic names. not just 20 years ago, but coming up in ten years. >> i love that city. it's just fantastic, what's happening. >> yeah. >> it's interesting how some of these western cities are making a run at things that california has historically done well. >> look at how you tax too much, you get to salt lake city. >> look forward to hearing more about it tonight, 10:00 p.m. eastern time. >> take a quick break here, an all-time high on the nasdaq, although down is down 140. don't go anywhere. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models.

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let's get to jim. >> okay, carl, as we wind up of the greatest cfo of all time at costco, i do want to point out that costco remains the gold standard retail and once again even though i think this is really important, valuation remains in unchartered territory. you can say, jim, you are

absolutely a hypocrite. you're saying that you're taking profits for some, not the others. i am taking profits in tech companies that are unproven or tech companies that are hyped. i would not take anything off from costco, because it is a membership model that i find superior to anything. costco stays in the trust and i like it even up here. >> interesting. it is an annuity business, jim. >> look, i love subscriptions. i love netflix. i think netflix is a great subscription model. i love amazon, which is a fantastic subscription model. this is how you make a lot of money, it's in subscription. >> given we have a minute, guys, i would love to come back to two stocks we mention, but i want to get a little more serious. we mentioned it earlier, but it's the fiscal year '27 free cash flow guide for sirius satellite. it's down 10%, and interestingly, the stock is down almost the same amount. that's also, they're out with their '25 guidance. that's below on revenues, ebitda, and free cash flow. and the fiscal year '27 free

cash flow guide is 10% below the history. finally on hershey, their head of confectionary is leaving after three months. michelle buck will take over that responsibility. so, that's hershey, which is now, as we say, in play. >> you really want to say that? >> that it's in play? >> the model seems to want to buy it. >> he should just call it off and buy back his own stock. that's ridiculous. he's taking the stock down in a way that is just nasty. he's a good executive, too. i would walk away. hershey is just not monetizable like this. >> interesting. >> what about tonight? >> i have a company that never, ever comes on tv. and that's key corp. you have this fabulous, fabulous show on salt lake city. i think that people have to realize that in other places had

this renaissance is cleveland. it's been fantastic. and gorman is the leader. he's fantastic. i can't wait. i've been trying to get him for many years. he's going to come on. pulled every string to get the guy on, because i find ohio is the -- we also have an alumnus of ohio on our show. >> yes. >> oh, sarah isaacson. of course. regional bank consolidation will be a big theme next year. >> does she know joe burrow personally? >> i'm sure she knows everybody in cincinnati. >> jamar. >> chase brown got me -- by the way, he got me in the playoffs on fantasy for all of you people. >> although no one has earned more fantasy nts than josh allen did on sunday. >> i had to go against josh and i still got in, i can't believe it. a big game this weekend. we're not flex. >> you're fine. for the rest of the year, your schedule's not too bad. wel se'le you tonight, jim. "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the ceo of alaska airlines on guidance and holiday

travel, in a minute.

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stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming.

good tuesday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street," i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live from post 9 of the new york stock exchange. stocks are missed, s&p is higher by a tenth of a percent. that's why the nasdaq is up half a percent and the dow is down 80 points. it's the three sectors powering the market, communication services on top thanks to alphabet up 5%, warner brothers, t-mobile, meta, charter, fox all higher right now. you have consumer discretionary also up in the market thanks to tesla, 3% higher, some of the cruise lines and the restaurants doing well, and the technology sector also higher, nvidia is back up 1.5%, palantir up 3%, a huge mover. all the other sectors are down, materials, real estate and utilities at the bottom of the pack today. treasuries, kind of a light day for economic data, the big

report comes wednesday, tomorrow, with cpi. ten year a little firmer, 4.2%, two year just below -- 4.1% we will call it. 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we are watching, shares of oracle on pace for their worst day in about a year. earnings and revenue falling short of estimates and the quarter forecast coming in lighter than expected. more on what to do with that stock in just a moment. toll brothers also in the red, the home builder beating expectations for orders in the most recent quarter, but guidance for 2025 gross margins a key sticking point for wall street. and then shares of alaska airlines flying high, on track for their best day in more than four years. raising their outlook, buying back shares, unveiling a plan to boost profit and the ceo will join us at post 9 as investor day kicks off to talk about the growth plans. the data today, more evidence of a really good economy and an

economy that does not scream of a fed rate cut next week. how about small business optimism. look at that spike we got. again, survey data, take it with a grain of salt, a grain of politics right after the election, but highest level in nearly 3.5 years. you have post election euphoria in that chart. if you look across some of what they break down some of the sentiment surveys, plans to expand the business also grew very fast, uncertainty factors comes down. it's a ood sign because obviously small businesses are a key driver of this economy for hiring. they've been burdened by high inflation rates lightly. so when we get into the animal spirits portion of the commentary right now, which is a real thing, you can point to that small business optimism which is quite nice. the other data point which we got this morning, carl, you always pay attention, a

productivity. nonfarm productivity growth unrevised at 2.2%. and there's the long-term chart of productivity and it's been a really great story. we're above post-covid highs, year over year up 2% versus the 2.4% in the second quarter. it's a good news story and also for the hawks at the fed and for the hawks out there who say the neutral rate or the rate that the economy needs not to expand or to contract is moving higher, they can point to productivity because productivity growth which just measures efficiency of workers, how much people can produce per hour, is a good story and a good sign for growth. look at what chris rupke said, a chief economist at forward bonds, with productivity data like this at hand hawks at the fed can argue that interest rates are closer to neutral that the committee previously believed. the stronger productivity trend probably does not stop the fed

from cutting rates again next week, but the number of rate cuts -- >> not necessarily blockbuster reports, david, but more evidence that the fed is not in an emergency cutting position and you could make a good argument that they do not need to be cutting because the market is giddy and the data is good. >> not to mention, i think, there's continued questions/concerns about tariffs and about deportations. we won't know, we can't know the level of tariffs and/or frankly i hear even more concern perhaps if deportations are at a high level, you know, in terms of the workers, what that could mean. those are just unknowables at this point, sara. >> it could mean for the labor market. >> correct. >> shortages, higher wages. >> inflation. >> more inflation potentially. >> which makes its way into everything else, all services and goods. >> they cannot preempt this because they cannot know what the policy is going to look like. economists can't forecast this

because they don't know what this policy is going to look like, but it does speak to the fact that the market is expecting fewer cuts next year because if those policies get done and the net-net is inflationary they will stop cutting, maybe even start hiking. >> who knows. it's very difficult to know. >> so far as far as the economy and demand, really good. we got some corporate earnings and some commentary, toll brothers i mentioned. since the start of the first quarter we have seen strong demand with the uncertainty of the election behind us and mortgage rates trending in the right direction, we are encouraged by our traffic deposits and agreements. pretty bullish. and are optimistic for the start fortunate spring selling season mid-january. ollie's bargains, strong demand for cleaning supplies, food and candy. we also saw strong demand for furniture and outdoor living. don't hear that very often. autozone, we are pleased with

the progress in our diy same store sales, average ticket and traffic trends improved. domestic commercial sales were up 3.2, encouraged by improving trends. vail ceo, early season conditions are encouraging, lodging booking data is consistent with prior level years and better than pre covid levels. hugh johnson, the cfo of disney, the consumer is actually doing okay right now. we obviously saw a bit of a hiccup in the summer with the parks. right now the consumer seems to be doing fine. >> ubs, the comments at the media conference. >> i just gave you across the board a number of industries sounding pretty upbeat. >> look good. let's move on to one of the bigger stock stories of the day, oracle. the shares are down rather sharply on the back of an earnings miss, somewhat of a disappointed forecast. despite that drop you are talking about a stock that is up 66% year to date. let's get the street's take. joining us at post 9 is citizens

j & p analyst patrick, price target 205. you had this in your own report, they just missed the top and bottom lines and their gpu business has benefitted from a lack of supply at the hyper scalers than any real demand for oracle's specific cloud infrastructure. why don't you believe that bear case? >> thank you so much for having me. great to be here. so, look, oracle fundamentally is benefitting from ai and there's two sides to that. the first side is the infrastructure side and they have the best infrastructure for hosting gpus anywhere, period. you're seeing that from all the customers, they're signing up, meta most recently. secondly, i think you can't overreact to them missing the numbers and i know this sounds like it's odd, but they missed six of the last eight quarters on the top line. so it happens a lot. larry allson is still the second

richest man in the world. it's working and i think you stick with it. >> what are the milestones that they will be judged by if we continue to get quarters where they lag in terms of what analysts expect from top line growth? >> one of the most important metrics is rpo. the last four quarters rpo went up and this last quarter it went down. the ceo told you on the call last night she expects that number to go up again in q4. rpo is the contracts you're signing for all of these ai deals. there's two dynamics, one, you want to burn them down because you want to use the gpus and, two, you want to sign new ones to go up. normally there is a sent alt in rpo, last four quarters have been straight up. i think we will see it starting to go up again next quarter. >> is the market wrong on how linear the path of ai spending is going to be judging by this oracle quarter and some of the others? >> it's going to be super bumpy. i have a son -- >> it's not just going up in a straight line? >> it's going to be super bumpy.

i have a son toss a lathe dine 'tis and he said anyone who uses computers for their jobs five years from now you should be really worried. he said, dad, your job is mainly social, you will probably be all right. we have this transition where we're going to go from training the models to actually using them and the things that we're all doing all day long a lot is going to be done by agents. the usage will happen but the transition it's going to be bumpy. >> when we are in an inference world, when the models no longer need to be trained quite as actively, is the -- is the demand -- and this is more a broader question, but for gpus still going to be there and/or the infrastructure that goes along with oracle's cloud or is that demand going to start to slow as well? >> that's the giant question. i asked chatgpt that question on the way in for fun, it says we have five to ten years. it gave me the answer. larry addressed it last night and reeled off eight or nine

different use cases for inference and then capped it off with, we are just at the beginning. >> so you are a buyer on this dip? >> i think you buy it on the dip. i do. >> just at the beginning. not even sure what that means sometimes. obviously you're grappling with it the same way. >> our world is changing. >> you're using chatgpt to help you with your job. >> i use it nonstop and our kids use it more than we do. >> patrick, thank you. >> thanks for having me. manhattan prosecutors have filed murder charges against the man accused of killing unitedhealthcare executive brian thompson. let's get to bertha coombs with the latest. >> good morning. prosecutors filed those murder charges against 26-year-old luigi mangione. he is being teld h. held in a m custody level this morning. he was arrested at a mcdonald's yesterday after being spotted by an employee who called police. authorities discovered mangione had a gun with him similar to the one used in thompson's

shooting as well as a suppressor and a fake id with the same name that the suspected gunman used at a new york city hostel. a senior new york city investigator briefed on the investigation teld nbc news he left behind three pages of writing which read in part, quote, frankly, these parasites had it coming, referenced the health care industry and stated, quote, i do apologize for any strive or traumas but it had to be done. nypd commissioner jessica tisch says authorities are not ready to ascribe a motive for brian thompson's murder. >> when we look at the manifesto or that three-page written document that was recovered, you see anti-corporatist sentiment, a lot of issues with the health care industry, but as to like particular specific motive, that will come out as this investigation continues to unfold over the next weeks and months. >> he graduated from the university of pennsylvania in

2020 where he specialized in engineering. his family owns nursing homes in maryland and in a statement his family said they were devastated by the news and offered, quote, prayers to the family of brian thompson and we ask people to pray for all involved. manhattan district attorney's office is expected to seek his extradition from pennsylvania. not clear on exactly when that will happen. back to you. >> i mean, so odd, bertha, so tragic. i know there are ripple effects across america, corporate america and specifically the health care industry that you cover and these insurance companies. i wonder what you're hearing from them as far as any changes that they may be making in the wake of this horrible tragedy. >> you know, right now, sara, people are pretty much in shock and just trying to manage through this crisis, but they are feeling -- feeling -- one executive told me they're devastated by this, you know. brian thompson had been in this business a long time and there are a lot of people at other

insurance companies who had worked with him, so it doesn't affect just the folks at united health, but throughout the industry a lot of people knew him personally. >> bertha, thank you. bertha coombs with the update. we will continue to monitor the story as it develops. as we head to break here is our roadmap for the rest of the hour. stocks on pace for banner year. where to put your money to work in 2025. >> plus new clues about the state of the consumer this holiday shopping season. more on how the consumer is spending and where. and an exclusive with alaska airlines ceo ahead of their investor meeting today. idcek is soaring after some guan. big show still ahead as "squawk on the street" continues.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." it has been an incredible rally this year, the s&p up 25%, nasdaq up 30. one of our next guests says expect increased volatility while the other expects a near term mild pull back, he also favors small caps, scott droner and julian emanuel both join us at post 9. scott's bull case for the s&p year-end 2025 is 6,900, julian sees the s&p hitting 6, 600 by midyear 2025. good morning to both of you. you both expect another good year, even though -- i mean, did anyone expect a year like this? >> i know we certainly didn't expect it going in, but i think

the assumption was that we would get follow through on the earnings broadening thesis which kind of played out but what surprised everybody was the valuation backdrop. if you would have told me a year ago at this time we were going to end the year 24 times trailing we might have look quizzically at each other. the market is pricing in a lot of bullish expectations about the longer-term outlook. >> what does that mean for the setup for next year? >> if you think about it, right, you've come off of what's going to be two years of plus 20% or more. the third year tends to be positive and volatile and if you think about the policy yet newspaper in the incoming trump administration we think the first year of the second term is going to look a lot like the second year of the first term. volatility, higher stocks, driven by tax policy, driven by immigration, driven by, you know, literally all the concepts of starting new in terms of

governing policy. >> we were talking about immigration and tariffs and potential negative impacts of those policies. >> well, you do worry about it. that's part of the unknown that when you think about the market it increases the probability of both positive and negative outcomes and so for us we step away from all of that and get back to the fact that when you think about what ends bull markets, it's not valuation alone. we are expensive, no question about that, but what ends bull markets is an oncoming recession, so much exuberance, think 2000, that things get carried away. >> what do you think lifts recession odds somewhere in '25? we went around the block on it this year, too. >> i think the market is still prizing in 25% of recession probability, our economists are still of the view that there is a labor unwind we need to be wary of going in the first start of the year. i don't see it. i think we are in a no cycle

circumstance, still migrating our way out of the post-pandemic time frame. to your earlier discussion what's really happening here, recession or not, or recession risk or not, is that the underlying fundamentals for the s&p 500 are in really good shape. okay. it's really interesting, you go back and look at it, sales for employees has really been aggressively improving, even though head count for the s&p 500 has been flattish. all told what we think is -- we've got here is a really constructive fundamental tailwind for the bulk of the s&p, what considering economic risk still out there. >> i mean, julian, you know, you're not terming this obviously similar to 2000 or the late '90s i guess in terms of the level of valuation, but there have to be parts in the market i would assume somewhat scary when it comes to 50 times revenues, for example.

>> there are. and, you know, there's no getting around that in the universe of trading stocks in the u.s., but, again, when you think about it more broadly and you think about the technological developments of the last several years and you put it against the backdrop of a fed that, you know, the market has gotten used to the fact that actually there's perhaps going to be fewer cuts next year than expected, but they are still cutting, the liquidity backdrop, you will be scared of those stocks, but, again, there are stocks whose fundamental stories will grow into some of those valuations, maybe not at 50 times revenue. >> scott, we're still talking 30%, 31% of the s&p is seven stocks, right? >> yeah. >> does that continue in 2025? >> i think it continues, right, but it just puts the reliance on that other 493 to kick in. it's really fascinating the valuation for the other 493 versus its history is actually

higher than for the mag 7. this is where we're making the point that a lot is being paid ahead forward in terms of where earnings expectations go. what does need to happen is the fundamental broadening this to support all of this. we are allowing for there to be a volatility circumstance as we go through the first part of the year. we can tie it back to trump and tariffs, we can try it into many aspects of the market, low volatility, extended valuation. what this is going to put in terms of pressure for c suites to deliver with q4 results. you go to the mid part of '25 you are looking forward to '26 where there are expectations for earnings growth follow through. all this have sets up for a constructive equity backdrop. >> does it worry you that everybody is very constructive and bullish right now, all the strategists coming out with high targets for next year? you guys -- the master on the sentiment indicator, what does that index tell you? >> if you look where valuations

are, they tell you median four month return is down 4%, you look at euphoric -- where we are right now, forward 12 month returns minus 9%. so we have to allow that there is going to be a volatility circumstance but coming back to the earlier discussion on whether it's recession risk or not, there has to be some shock effect to trigger all of that. i'm with julian in this regard. i don't think that this dies from a valuation circumstance, there has to be something that triggers it. by virtue of being a shock you can't predict t you can prepare for it. >> i know it's a little specific but we were talking about the news regarding alphabet and quantum computing, new video production tools and openai. to scott's point about head count and productivity and earnings, how are you starting to fold those anecdotes into models. >> again, you've seen larger companies over the course of the year speak to the value they've begun to unlock in ai and

obviously this is a company that's been on the vanguard and actually our adoption curves show that big companies really are where they should be and '25 is an inflection year. i would argue that that transition that certainly means jobs will be recreated in the longer run analysis. works better in an economy where we're growing at 2% or more. so from that regard it's going to be a smoother transition. >> why do you like small over big? >> so basically small cap -- the valuation relatively is still good, but interestingly enough -- >> that's always been the days, though, and that has worked. >> it actually -- in the last number of months it has, but more importantly what we saw today was the small cap uncertainty, small business uncertainty index come off the peaks, which has happened after every single election since 2012 and small caps have outperformed on a six and 12 month forward

basis. >> that's interesting. >> yeah. >> so tied to small business sentiment? >> yeah. >> all right. that was a big jump. thank you both very much for joining us. good discussion. scott and julian. as we head out, check out shares of boeing, biggest gainer on the dow today. the plain maker was restarted production of the 737 max jets about a month after that seven-week strike by 30,000 factory workers. stock up 5%. after the break the ceo of alaska airlines as shares gain on new itiivniates there, he will join us to talk about t don't go anywhere.

welcome back. i'm silvana henao. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu took the stan today in his long-running corruption trial. he has denied the charges of fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes and on the stand today called the allegations against him, quote, simply ridiculous. netanyahu is the first sitting israeli leader to take the stand as a criminal defendant. brazilian president dee silva underwent an emergency

surgery on his brain. his doctors said this morning the 79-year-old suffered a bleed linked to a fall in october. brazil's vice president has assumed his duties as he recovers. and crews are fighting a fast growing fire near pepperdine university in malibu. today students and faculty at the university have been told to shelter in place and local officials have issued evacuation orders in other parts of the city. the fire has already grown to more than 1,800 acres. firefighters say it was fueled by the strong santa ana winds. the cause of the fire is unknown. back to you. >> thanks. welcome back to "squawk on the street." shares of alaska airlines on pace for their best day in several years as the company raises its outlook, announces a big stock buy bank, unveils a plan to boost profits. joining us exclusively at post 9 is alaska airlines ceo ben minicucci. good to have. >> you thanks, carl. >> there is the eps and margin

targets, new routes. what's the head line in your view? >> the head line is this is a step change for alaska, we call it transformative. the hawaiian airlines acquisition was a catalyst to accelerate our vision, it's why we call our vision alaska accelerated, we are fast forwarding a strategic plan. it's about the financial benefits we got out of this deal, the billion dollar share buy bank. our employees are excited i'm so happy. >> the street wants to know whether you are a global carrier, whether a new global carrier has been born to compete with the big three or four. >> what i will say is we've been a strong west coast airline for many years and we built -- we built our strength along our west coast hubs, but the acquisition now with hawaiian has 26 widewide bodies going 3 wide bodies so we saw a huge opportunity to repurpose some

wide bodies for seattle where we are the biggest domestic carrier in seattle, we have almost 400 flights a day. it's a perfect complement to the domestic network. we will start with tokyo and seoul but with the additional ten 787s we're getting we're going to grow that international network to larger than that. maybe 12 destinations by 2030. >> potential markets would b for example? >> we will go to europe for sure. we're going to look at where customers want to go, both leisure and corporate customers. seattle is home to many, many corporate -- big corporate companies so there is a huge corporate demand, there is a huge leisure demand and so we're excited to see where the next spots are. europe is definitely on our radar. >> '27 you have pretax margins you are expecting between 11 and 13% of earnings. what's giving you the line of sight to 11 to 13% pretax margins? >> we've doubled our synergies to $500 million in addition to

commercial incentives we will have an incremental billion dollars of pretax profit by 2027. we are excited about that. we have line of sight. we've done this before with the virgin america integration, we know how to do this. most of our team is here from the last time. a billion dollars of pretax profit and at least $10 a share is what we're looking at. >> what about the u.s. domestic market, some of the changes we've seen, pull backs from jetblue. how do you see that competitive landscape shaping up and affecting you? >> it's changing a lot. our geographies it hasn't changed dramatically. we have seen some changes in the hawaii market with southwest, but our focus on really building our west coast strength, our new international strength and really connecting these two complementary networks. so the networks we have from hawaii complementing to alaska and having more relevance to more guests is where we see that

huge potential. >> what is going on right now with consumer demand relative to where we've been? >> it's strong. share ration it's strong. it's why we increased eps in the fourth quarter and full year. cyber monday we had our cyber monday, best cyber monday in our history for both alaska and hawaiian. >> i would assume tokyo and seoul would play to a corporate demand out of seattle. it's been more leisure i would assume in the past. how big of an opportunity on the corporate side? >> it's pretty big. we estimate the corporate pie for us is about 300 million sooichbd in in seattle. we don't have access to that right now and i think with the international travel it gives us more access to that corporate demand. we do see a lot of leisure interest in asia and especially in europe. we just see a lot of potential with this move.

>> while you're here there are reports that boeing has resumed production of the max. do we buy that and does it -- does it alter your view of them as a supplier? >> no. i think we're still big supporters of -- we have 250, 150 on order. we're holding the quality bar high on boeing. we have seen improvement in their quality processes. we audit them every quarter, i have staff on the assembly line watching the assembly of the airplanes. we've seen improvement. the strike set them back a little bit. alaska needs boeing, our industry needs boeing, our country needs boeing. we're going to push them hard but are pulling for boeing to be successful. >> we have cpi tomorrow and airfares have been an interesting swing factor. you said demand is strong, does that mean prices are high? >> we are seeing unit revenues go up, sara. so there's going to be a little more fare pressure going forward and i think we're trying to balance that supply and demand

equilibrium. >> congratulations on a nice day today and for helping us understand the story. >> great to be here with you. we will get another read on travel demand tomorrow when we talk to the ceo of southwest in the 9:00 a.m. hour. some retail stocks we are watching today, autozone, ollie's bargain outlet, casey's general stores all reporting earnings, most higher. ebay under pressure after jefferies down grades the stock to sell. new proprietary data on holiday spending and how november is shaping up. we will share with you after a quick break.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." new data on the state of the consumer this holiday shopping season. let's get to steve liesman he has the numbers for us. steve? >> good morning, david. the cnbc national retail federation retail monitor is showing weak month to month gains in november but hold on because that can still mean solid consumer spending because of a quirk in the calendar that

i will explain. using real credit card data from affinity the monitor shows sales growth 0.2% month on month in november, autos and gas, down. the big october number suggested an early and strong start to the holiday shopping season. but year over year gains were a healthier 274 in november compared to 4.1% in october. we see the same pattern in core retail that removes restaurants, down 0.2, up 1.4% year over year. so why does that suggest strength? well, because thanksgiving fell on the latest possible day of the year, the 28th. pushing half of the black friday weekend into december. last year all four days of black friday through cyber monday were in november, so november this year was pretty good, even when missing two major holiday shopping days. you can see nonstore retail up 21.5% year over year, restaurants and bars did well up

7.3, but clothing and accessories and general merchandise, those are two more focused holiday categories did well, but electronics, appliances, sporting goods and hobby and music and book stores were down both more than 7%. seven of our 12 categories were up this year. this holiday season comes with lower gas prices, sales were down 6% in our data and deflation and good prices overall. so consumers they have nor discretionary dallas in their pockets and are paying somewhat less compared to a year ago. we have to wait for december data but looks like october/november together your honor not a bad start to the holiday season. >> i will tell you the nrf number that caught my eye today, steve, was their eir port track container arrivals and it's up double digits because retailers are trying to get in front of potential tariffs and labor disputes on dock workers in january. >> that's going to be

interesting, carl, when it feeds into the macro data because you think about it, what happens is those imports reduce gdp, end up in inventory and then the question is how long will they sit on this added inventory? are they going to let it sit there for a while? they have to finance t time is money. we will see if that works out, it could put downward pressure on prices trying to get it in but maybe they're bringing it in for a later season. it's really interesting the way that the holiday season works out now. started in october with those big numbers, november we don't know because of the two extra days that were in december and then we've seen seen some months, carl, where january ends up being a big month. >> interesting. we've talked about residual seasonality in all kinds of januarys the last few years. i'm sure we may do it again in a few weeks. steve liesman, thanks. still to come this morning we will head west for the third inn staultment of "cities of success." more on one sector seeing big profits in salt lake city after

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unprecedented growth in salt lake city over the last decade has spurred a commercial real estate boom that is transforming the skyline literally by the

day. as part of our prime time cities "cities of success" which debuts tonight on cnbc we look at all of this development and who stands to profit. >> reporter: on a vast swath of land stretching from this old power plant to the rundown jordan river walk, the old is coming down, making way for the new. a massive new neighborhood called the power district. it will be a 100 plus acre mixed-use development designed to reimagine and recharge the entire west side of salt lake city. >> we are the fastest growing state and we need this type of investment to provide housing and jobs, workforce development. >> reporter: ceo steve starks is guiding this public/private partnership between the city and his larry h. miller company, a salt lake based investment firm with arms in real estate, health care, sports and entertainment. >> i think our community is excited to e able to showcase

what this can be in the future. with the power district development we're going to bring this to life. >> reporter: starks former president of the utah jazz envisions a baseball stadium on the waterfront. he is pitching the city for a major league expansion team. >> we have studied the best sports mixed use developments, atlanta, d.c., other sites, we want to apply those bob pisani to this site. >> reporter: it is one of multiple mixed-use developments rising in salt lake city. they include the west quarter, post district, sports and entertainment district, the silos and the astro tower, now the tallest building in the state. >> this is area prime for development. >> it is. and, in fact, what you're going to see within the next several months or a year is cranes going up. >> reporter: erin lainey barr is the areas's managing director for a commercial real estate services firm, wills a salt lake native who has watched the

city's economy and landscape transform markedly in the last second dade. >> we have an incredibly diverse economy reflected in commercial real estate, a life sciences community that continues to grow with incubators and innovation, a very involved technology community, a burgeoning aerospace and defense community. >> all of these new industries in the city are bringing in new real estate developers. in the past most was backed by the church of jesus christ of latter day saints. there are there but a shrinking part of the market. we will have more on that on the big show tonight. >> one of my favorite wrinkles about this episode is this convergence between sports, real estate, retail, housing, right? entertainment. >> it's all of t i mean, what you are seeing that's so interesting is how sports is driving all of this. you saw it as he said in atlanta and you saw it in washington, d.c. thousands of residential units

coming in, residential, retail sales, restaurants and it's driving the growth of not just the economy of the city, but actually the entire real estate development around t entire new neighborhoods. >> and a young demographic obviously helps. >> of course. >> to get that audience going. >> a young more diverse demographic. >> exactly. hope you will tune in. salt lake city, 10:00 p.m. eastern time. thanks. next hour the ceo of mongodb breaking down results. that's in the 11:00 hour eastern. first, let's get to kate rooney in arizona with more on what is ahead this hour. good morning, kate. >> sara, we are going to walk you through what could be the future of delivery for amazon. i'm talking about drones. they're rolling out live here for customers in phoenix. we will tell you all aboutt afr e ea tethbrk. i

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check out shares of mastercard today moving a bit higher. the company announce add partnership with netflix. mastercard cardholders will get exclusive benefits like pre sale tickets and more as the preferred performance player for immersive in-person events and

experience. a 1% gain and a roughly flat take today. amazon touted it's futuristic idea of delivering packages by drone a decade but but the company has begun package deliveries using drones, it's to customers in arizona and that is where we find kate rooney, he is in phoenix. >> amazon has been testing drones across the country for years but officially went live here in phoenix about a month ago. amazon is using drones to deliver packages around the phoenix metro area. these aircrafts are meant for smaller items, things that would fit in a hue box, they weigh less than five pounds or less. the example we saw that was delivered was a jenga game. you do pay 10 extra bucks for drone delivery to get it faster, you do also have to confirm where you want it dropped off on a map of your property. there have been drastic design changes as well. they cut the noise of recent

aircrafts by 40%, they can go double the distance, also through testing figured out things like dogs. so dogs like to chase drones as you can imagine. they changed some of the design. i did sit down with amazon executive david carbon who spent nearly a decade at boeing. he told me managing air space has been the biggest challenge and does see it as a supplement to amazon's drivers. >> at the end of the day we will need every facet of delivery we can get our hands on. there is not enough people on earth to deliver how much people are going to order. i don't see this impacting this at all. this is about speed, it's not about anything else. it's about safety and speed. >> amazon got faa approval for its mk 30 drones in october. this drone sight is integrated directly with the sub same day fulfillment center which is now amazon plans to scale the program quickly.

i'm told they will be rolling out in new cities next year. the goal 500 million deliveries a year within 30 minutes or so. so far they've done thousands of delivery. a wide gap there. there is competition, others like google and walmart are now successfully rolling out similar programs. >> i just went back and looked because i remembered the piece "60 minutes" did with jeff bezos, remember that puff piece they did, that was in 2013 so they have been working on this for a really long time. >> yeah. yeah. that's really when jeff bezos -- it's interesting, they said it's actually not the technology that took so long, it was the faa approvals. it's air space. so they have to navigate certain airports around here, there is a military airport not that far away, there's other companies doing this. they said that has been by far the biggest challenge. they needed to figure out how to navigate the air space. they said we've been able to fly drones for years but the biggest thing has been the regulatory

side of things, the faa. the place we are at now certificate if i had in the same way as an airport. they need to make sure safety is a huge. i talked to the executive yesterday, david carbon, who said that andy jassy tells him the number one thing is safety. they do not want a situation where a drone hurts somebody. you can imagine how far back that would set a program like this if there is a head line where a kid gets hurt by a drone. they have focused on safety. that's one of the biggest hurdles. >> how long is the typical flight and, you know, duration and what are the range of these things? >> so it's about 15, 20 minutes and, you know, we're probably 15 or so miles from where these drones get delivered. it's within metro areas, so it's not hundreds of miles, but these are going to be -- the fulfillment center here is in the suburb of phoenix and they are going to the metro area here. that is sort of the average range. they've doubled the range. these are also powered by

battery so they have to come back and charge. they switch out the batteries, make sure there is not much down time meaning they don't need to charge up, they go in and quickly switch out the batteries, that's the way it has been working here. i think we have a drone behind us, actually. there it is. >> i see it right there. >> in three seconds it's going to take off. the noise is also, we should mention, kind of interesting. i think we're going to get a takeoff. there it is, it's powering up. >> three, two -- >> that's one of the things -- >> i like the blastoff here on "squawk on the street." wow. what a great way to end the show. kate, thank you. >> there it is. >> amazon shares are also up arout .84%, some 50% for the ye. our live market coverage continues after this. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!!

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good tuesday morning, welcome to "money movers," i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from post 9 of the new york stock exchange. today are we seeing the collapse of the momentum trade? jefferies says the russell may be able to compete with the large caps in 2025 but not everyone on the street agrees. we will debate it this hour. shares of alphabet get a big boost today after unveiling that