that was -- i feel for the family. i really do. >> i can't believe you were there that morning. >> neither can i. i walked out into a crime scene. i didn't realize it. didn't know what happened. walked right through it.through. >> eerie. >> great to see you. >> have a great holiday. >> we enjoyed having you here. >> come back soon. >> thanks for a great hour and thank you for watching "power lunch". >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell." >> i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange. surging tech has taken the nasdaq to a place its never been before, above 20,000. that milestone reached as apple and amazon and alphabet and meta and tesla and netflix all hit new highs today. in just a second, we'll ask tom lee how high stocks could fly in the new year. he'll join us momentarily with that outlook.

in the meantime, with 60 to do go in regulation, the markets get a nice lift after the cpi came in as expect and big tech is helping the s&p 500 edge closer to 6100. only about 13 points away. we're going to watch that closely. it does take us to our talk of the tape. as the mega cap melt rolls on. let's welcome in ted lee from post nine. welcome, it is good to see you. let's hit tech first. should we be surprised at this resurgence, this meltup and maybe caught some people by surprise? >> i think investors should realize that 2024 has been a year of surprising strength, the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the year where there is still $7 trillion in cash on the side lines and good visibility for next year so i think stocks

should finish strong. >> why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is. up 1.75 today and the nasdaq up over 4% in a month and able to achieve this milestone. >> mega caps have been leading. so it is what people reach into the shelf when they risk on. and second when interest rate falls, the mega caps are very sensitive to that and i think today was a day where the odds of a december cut increased, the probability is solidified ab that is bullish for tech. >> because the cpi was some would say sticky. but it was largely in line. is that how you read it? >> that is right. and i think it is allowing -- the cpi print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because it is cooling to a letter that in line. and auto insurance is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributor to cpi are in a downshift. i don't think the fact that used

cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view. >> so fed is cutting next week. >> yes. >> and then what happens after that. all bets are off, wait and see, what do you think? >> i think the think the fed remains in play because neutral is 2.5 to 3% and we're at 5 after the december cut. so we know that the fed is in a cutting cycle. i think the best case is for the fed to do the fewest number of cuts next year. >> that means the economy is pretty strong. >> that is right. it is strong, they don't -- they're not harming the economy by keeping rates here. and the labor market is holding up and now we have a lot of fire power for future cuts which support stocks. >> you talk about a fed put and another put and that is a trump put. >> yes. >> he's going to be here tomorrow ringing the opening bell. people are excited about that down here for sure. bup you say that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year, the trump put. explain.

>> the trump put is a white house that is going to measure success by how the stock market performs but it is also a president that is coming into a second term, but with a lot of previous experience. so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and i think very markets friendly overall, i think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years now want to be risk on next year. >> so your outlook is interesting. the way you game out where the s&p could go. because you say we're going to 7,000. by midyear, which sounds amazing because most targets that i've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year. you're full year forecast, though, is 6600. why? >> part of it is cyclical. we're coming off two back-to-back 20% years and there are five precedents to look at. five of the five precedents

since 1880 had a weaker second half. that is the base case. the reason i think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new white house, some of the headlines that come, whether it is deregulation, et cetera, and we know there is still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the side lines, that is where stocks could rally and by the way 11% in a few months, we've seen that routinely the last couple of years. but in the second half, i think markets start to worry about the larger macro risks like the middle east, the potential risk of tariffs and executing that and potentially the fact that doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy. >> you're worried about being too efficient. cutting too much and what imt -- what the impact is going to be. >> yes. and maybe the probability that it should be more effective than consensus. people think because doge has no executive powers it is not

effective. but we have elon musk with twitter, with x as a huge pulpit to embarrass companies. so if waste is identified, this could create p.r. problems for companies and that is why there could be pressure on stocks. >> so where do you think -- we've had a lot of multiple expansion over the last couple of years as we're in year two plus now of the this bull market. i hear we're done with multiple expansion and now we need earnings growth to carry the market higher. are we going to get enough earnings growth to do the job. >> i think people should think about the median stock, not index level. the median p.e. in the s&p is 17 times forward earnings. when the ten-year is at 4% you're paying 25 times for a ten-year bond and i think the median p.e. could get towards 20. and earnings growth, i think the dispersion should pick up next year because we have -- we don't have the headwinds we had the last four years.

we don't have a tight fed or inflation surge. we don't have election uncertainty. the ism is finally turning up and there is a lot of presbyterian up spending so earnings growth should be broad. >> your earnings growth numbers are really positive. 275 to $300. >> yeah. >> put a reasonable multiple on that. even if it is above historical multiple and you have a good market. >> and i think as the markets get used to a 20 p.e. and the idea of a 25 p.e. for a battle group tests of 25 companies isn't out of the question and there could be upside in the second half. >> let's expand the conversation bring in lauren goodwin and brian levitt. lauren, i begin with you. because you've been sitting here listening to tom lee give his forecast. does it make sense to you. >> it makes sense in the sense that we agree on a lot of the themes that we're expecting to be grappling with next year. i would say where tom has a tail of two halves, i expect that

many of the themes that you're looking at for the second half of the year may play out sooner and that is to say that the bricks in the wall of worry around how will positive business sentiment for example weigh up against trade. i think those things will start to be laid out already in january. i do expect the market to climb the wall of worry, though, because of the positive elements tom has pointed to. we have a fed with a little bit of ballast. earnings growth is likely to be broadening and i see the cycle as being expanded. this is constructive. but as i look over the course of 2025, that is a year for moderate equity market and fixed income returns. >> how do we judge a cycle that is, you use the word expanded, versus one that is arguably going to be renewed? because of this sentiment plus policy, plus rate cuts? >> yeah, i agree. i think that when i look at

2025, there is very little to be worried about in terms of growth really hitting a snag. i agree that drawdowns in government spending, which has been such a source of support for the economy are likely to result in slowing economic activity, but this is an environment that is fairly conducive to risk asset performance. >> what do you think? >> i agree. the peak inflation that happened a while ago and peak tightening that happened a while ago all supportive for equities and i think that persists. what we're all quibbling about here is the timing of some time of uncertainty around policy. >> some kind of upset related to set policy. >> but that wouldn't be the end of the cycle or market cycle. that would be some type of draw down. we've had a year with not a lot of volatility, maybe for a day or two when the bank of japan raised rates. and the reason we haven't had a

lot of volatility, is because we haven't had a lot of policy certainty. i've been saying that investors could see the trump trade in two different ways. tax cuts and deregulation, or tariffs and fiscal consolidation. if you look back at 2018, it was a year in which we had prolonged trade policy uncertainty that drove business investment lower and the market ended up falling 20% in the fourth quarter. not the end of a cycle, federal reserve eased in 2019 but that is time of thing that could emerge. but the bath drop for equities remains good. >> what kind of returns do you really think are possible for the s&p next year? >> i think you would have more modest than you would have over last couple of years. so -- >> you mean i'm not going to get 25? >> is that upsetting? it is disappointing. but you'll probably get low double-digit returns in the s&p 500. i don't see any reason why you wouldn't end up with a year like

that. and the hope is that it is broader. the idea is if the federal reserve can bring down rates and the economy can pick up a bit. you could start to see some convergence between earnings of the biggest names ant the rest of the 493, you have broader market participation than we've had. >> how do you judge that, tom? there is the hope as brian said that you get this broadening. maybe this is just end of year activity in the mega caps and once you get -- with trump back in the white house, we start talking about legit policies that things that we know will happen rather than speculation of things that we think could, does that match the light of broadening on a more substantial basis? >> i think the probabilities are much higher for a broadening. one of he things to watch is the ism. it is been below 50 for almost three years. it is finally perking up. so much of s&p earnings are

highly correlated with the confidence that comes from the ism turning up on the manufacturing side. so i think the earnings visibility is much better next year. and i think when you think about deregulation, and the results capital markets and m&a activity, that really benefits the financials and industrials more than it would tech. >> well we will underscore once again for you that the nasdaq did top 20,000 for the first time ever and holding above that now in part because it is another strong day for stocks like alphabet and amid a big week of gains. deirdre bosa following that. what is behind the big move? >> reporter: well today it announced the next jeb generation of gemini 2.0 built for the -- era. google has a major distribution advantage which it could lien on in degenerative a.i. which now reaches a billion

people that are still using traditional search but getting google a.i. answers. so in a lot of way it is an introduction for the mainstream. now it is also just the latest in a string of wins for google this week. we have that quantum computing breakthrough that we discussed yesterday and cruise yesterday saying it will get out of the obo taxi race entirely and that clears the way for alphabet waymo, forcing investors to rethink the valuation which has been hurt by anti-trust battles and innovators dilemma. that said the rest of the month could prove to be more volatile. we're expecting a ruling on the add tech case and google will file in the search monopoly case by december 20th, scott. >> deirdre, thank you for that. tom, it brings me back to you. the idea that how much of what we're seeing, maybe even a little bit today, is there has been such a regulatory overhang on a lot of these names. under the current administration, now you have a

new ftc chairperson. is that playing a role in any respect to this? because dan ives said today christmas comes early with the new heft of the ftc for tech. >> it is probably the best way to sort of measure this is what bitcoin is doing. because bitcoin faced enormous regulatory burdens over the last few years and now we have a white house that is embracing digital assets and a new ftc chairman, a new commerce secretary. i think these are being viewed as probusiness, reviving animal spirits but a good proxy is watching bitcoin. >> now i'm going to have to pin you to a target on bitcoin. because you've been among the most optimistic and outspoken about it for years to be quite honest. so here we are above 100,000. what is a legitimate target for 2025 for bitcoin. >> we think it is going to follow a similar psych thal we've seen in the past that would immy something around

250,000 for bitcoin in 2025. and on top of that, we have a trump put because bitcoin is potentially a strategic reserve asset for the u.s. government. >> how have you been watching crypto, brian and how are you thinking about what happened with the alleged trump trades, this may be the most acute place to look, direct trump trades because for the reasons that tom lee said, and the way you think about the sentiment that is put forward by what we're witnessing in something like that, in that asset class by itself. >> yeah, i always preferred to stick to the knitting around what leading indicators are doing. if you think about the first trump administration, there was a lot of excitement around specific trades and they all faded. now, some could say that was the result of a pandemic. but they were fading in 2018. and what i mean by that,

interest rates jumped up pretty significantly initially and cyclical outperformed defenses and it was the hope for higher nominal growth and you had the policy uncertainty with the tariffs. so by the end of the administration, before the eve of covid, rates were lower and defenses were outperforming cyclicals. so we could try and size it based on the what we think the administration wants to do. but the reality of the real economy will matter. >> if nothing else, it has people, lauren, rethinking allocations to different kinds of asset classes, whether it is equities, because now you do have a crypto favorable administration that will, well maybe i need to allocate more towards that and other alternative assets. and then credit. which you have ideas on as well. >> yeah, absolutely. when starting with alternatives, i see two major trends evolving

there. one is with respect to digital assets. when we think about macro economic themes and geopolitical risk. we put bitcoin and digital assets generally into a satellite bucket along with oil and gold that helps to ballast against event risk. when i think those structurally with respect to alternatives, looking at where does the digital asset of the future go, think it is broader than bitcoin and i'm thinking about the democratization of assets. with credit, this is an area getting a little less attention because there is volatility in rates. on a total return basis, spreads are already tight in credit. but on a total return basis, i love the high yield asset class. we've talked about cycle extension and if you pick high quality borrowers and the opportunity in this asset class, especially in the short duration

basis is second to none and we're seeing investors that are concerned about valuations, we're not one of them. but for the clients who are, we're seeing them allocate from equity into the higher yield as the class. >> lastly, i want to ask you tom, about your small cap call. it is not going to likely get to the level that you thought it would return. but its going to go down as a good year for the russell. it is up 19% year-to-date. what should we think about for next year. are you willing to they targets out there? if 50% is what you thought you would get out of the russell this year, like i said, barring something crazy over the last few weeks, you're not going to get that but that doesn't mean you're not going to get good gains next year. >> the russell is at 2400 now. i think it can reach 3,000 next year. now, the context is, this is the first good year for small caps in almost ten years.

the ten-year under-performance of small caps to the s&p is 9,100 basis points. it is the second worse ten-year period if you -- in 125 years. only 898 was worse. if you take the small caps underperform by the four worst periods, they outperform the next three years in five years by 1500 in almost 2500 basicallies. so deregulation and animal spirits and m&a and better earnings growth but it is been kind of painful. small caps haven't been a good timing vehicle. >> all right. we'll leave it there. i appreciate you revealing your outlook first and with us. thank you. that is tom lee. lauren and brian, thank you, everybody. >> let's send it to kate rooney for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> so health care stocks today sliding after a bipartisan group of lawmakers did introduce a bill to break up health care

insurers to divest their pharmacy business wb three years. you have united health, cvs and cigna today all down about 5%. and then nike shares heading in the other direction. about 2% higher as they renew their partnership with the nfl for another ten years. nike will continue to be the exclusive provider of uniforms, side line practice and base layer apparel for all 32 nfl teams, scott. back over to you. >> kate rooney. we're just getting started here. up next, the former dallas fed president richard fish ser back breaking down what today's cpi print might mean for the fed next week. he'll join me at post nine right after the break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it.

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welcome back. to cut or not to cut. that is the question for the fed after today's cpi report came in mostly in line with expectations. joining me now here aft post nine to discuss is rich fisher. it is great to have you here in person. >> it is an honor. >> you are baffled at the mark's reaction to the cpi. why? >> well, as you know, they're discounting about 99% of the likely cut of a quarter. the economy is doing well. powell keep talking about this. >> said it was remarkable. >> financial conditions are wonderful. look at what happened on the floor today. spreads are narrow. and i think one of the ironies by the way, scott, is they cut 50 basis points in september and then another 25. rates have gone up. not just from one year out, they went up on the sixth month and

on the three-month. so financial conditions are very accommodative right now. a lot of private capital out there, private lending and so on. if i were at the table, would you say let's pause, but i'm not at the table. i'm an old guy so i'm not there. >> so you wouldn't cut next week? >> no, i wouldn't. >> and what would you do after that. >> i would see what the data tells me. the inflation numbers biped up just a little bit and the employment numbers are quite strong. i don't see a reason to do it. but there may be a reason and so i'm saying, i was saying 40% probability but the market differs with my views an the market is more powerful than i am. >> well, the reason is because it is such a delicate balance of acknowledging that the economy is in the fed chair's words remarkable. >> right. >> well, not wanting to upsetting the labor market.

he talks about the risk on two sides. so how do you thread that needle? >> so he talks about these are historically strong employment numbers. and data that just came out wasn't that week. so, we'll just have to see. it is 19 people and their best judgment and the decision in my view, given the way the memo's circulate, will be decided by friday and we'll have to see what they do. >> you think they're at neutral now or close? how would you -- assess that? >> they don't know what neutral is. >> that is why i ask the question. >> we're think being the rate which doesn't overdo or underdo the economy. i don't know. i think they're not there yet and i think they have to be careful. we're seeing some inflationary pressures still in the services sector. and remember, only 17% of the u.s. economy is manufacturing. goods have been depreciating and

those numbers are still fairly rebust in the 4% range. >> you said we're not there yet. implying that we're still restrictive? so if we're still restrictive. >> i'm not saying that. i'm saying we're not there yet. >>. >> well, where are we. >> we don't to be neutral if inflation is still a threat and we have still have the pressure above the 3.5%, 2.6% level and if you take the real core, it is around 3%. so we haven't gotten there yet and that would tell me maintain conditions for now. but again, scott, i'm not on the committee any more. i'm an old guy. >> but you have strong opinions. that is why we like to have you on. >> my real concern here is about fiscal policy. and i'm going to give you a number that i think all of our audience will realize. any business person or investor. we took in, in fiscal year 2024, the u.s. government took in

$4.62 trillion in revenue. so consider that the sales of the company. and they paid out over $900 billion in interest. actually the ratio is they're taking in revenue, 19.3% of the refrn goes to paying interest. nobody on the floor of this exchange, no banker would investor in such company. that is what i'm worried about. and even with the savings that might be able to be achieved by elon and others, the ire is going up, because 2% debt is rolling over at 4% in the longer part of the yield curve. >> it is why the chair himself said that we're on an unsustainable path. >> correct. >> that we're not there today. but we're on an unsustainable path. now, those in the new administration may say, yeah, richard, but, we've got extraordinarily pro-growth

policy that are coming and we could grow our way out of the problems that you and others suggest if not terminal, certainly detrimental to the health of this country for a long period of time. >> and i hope they do. by the way, i served as you know in the clinton administration, we grew our way out of it. newt gingrich was helpful. we paid down the nation's debt. alan greenspan was so worried he couldn't operate the fed. we were buying them back in. we bnlsed the budget and that was because of economic growth. >> so what is wrong with this this time. >> i hope it works. we're late in the cycle and we'll have to see if it works. we came around during that administration. >> what makes you think we're as late in the cycle as some would suggest. as i asked guests earlier, we're about to have a renewal. we could have been ott the end of the cycle, but we've just filled the gas tank again. we don't need to get out the can.

we filled the whole thing. >> we're filled it ourselves, but foreign investment is helping fill it as well. and we are the best looking horse in the glue factory, the global economy, look at how things are miserable in europe and south korea and japan. and over a trillion dollars has come in recently, not by central banks, it is coming in by private investors. that fuels our tank. it gives us capital to work with. it maintains the spreads low and finances our treasury. would you argue, scott, if it weren't for that, the ten-year would be at 5% not at 4.22%. when we talk about other risks, how do you think jay powell is thinking about tariffs. every time he's asked, he said we don't know. you don't know physical it happens. >> he's right. now remember, i was the deputy u.s. trade representative for four years and all i could tell you is that everybody wants to have their industry protected. and it is really attacks on the

consumer. so, that is where we are. the average applied tariff right now it 2.8%. now if we go to 10, are we taking 25 to each of mexico and canada, what are companies to do to protect margins? raise their prices or ramp up productivity. so i'm old-fashioned, i view it as inflationary and anti-growth. >> you think concerns lastly about fed independence with trump are over blown? >> yes. >> you don't have any issues whatsoever? i mean, i told nbc. >> i love the way he said it. if i asked him to resign, he won't. but if i tell him, he will. you heard powell's answer at the press conference. >> right, he said he wouldn't. >> there is no way he can force him to do it. and i do believe that powell could out maneuver him on the hill on this issue. did he that with biden, when bident wanted to appoint

brainerd rather than him. >> it is great having you here in person. that is richard fisher here at post nine. up next, the nfl approving the sale of a minority stake in the philadelphia eagles. it it issin incrediblible what is happening with valuation. we'll get into that more after the break. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley.

we're back on the bell. the nfl approving the sell of a minority stake in the philadelphia eagles. mike is here so discuss. good to see you. so this was an evaluation of 8.3. and it was just in september where you had them at 7. what happened? your pencil needs to be sharper. what is going on. >> one, i don't know what i'm talking about, and number two, the values of nfl teams are rising like crazy. there were three other deals today. >> for $1.3 billion in a couple of months. >> i was too low. >> that is what i'm saying. we've gone up that much in a couple of months. >> not just there. but the dolphins alone, they had a sale today, just the team,p$.7 billion. that is like $600 million more than i had. the bills, $5.8 billion minority stake. the raiders, $6.5 billion. the railroad went for the

limited discount, this shows how hot the nfl is. if you were jeff lurie, look at how happy you are. you bought the team in 1996. $185,000,008,300,000,000. >> how do we judge whether this environment is too frothy or not? i'm not suggesting it is but even asking the question. but i'm curious. what you're growing the valuation and you're like the expert and you're the guru on this and if it goes for 8.3 today and you had 7 in september, do you think it is frothy. >> no, i don't. there are tv ratings that are phenomenal and there are new assets that could monetize like the international games. i think that is something they could make more money from and the league has done a great job of taking some of the content and streaming it while at the same time maintaining the growth rate in typical broadcast tv revenue. >> lastly then i have to run.

i mean, they're a good team. that helps. they spend, they win. they're valuation goes up. that is what steve -- that is the steve cohen playbook. you spend and you win and hopefully and then your valuation presumably goes up. that is like one ideally followed the other. is that true? >> much more so in baseball. in a big market situation. where there is no salary cap. in the nfl, a lot more money is spread evenly and you have a salary cap. >> thank you, mike. up next, ed yardeni telling us why investors need to brace for some volatility early next year. just after the break.

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i didn't get the part. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. but i did get waiter number 2. because they know you. they can help you create a comprehensive plan for your full financial picture and personalized money management with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. another day of milestones for stocks with the nasdaq crossing above 20,000 for the first time ever. and s&p closing in on 6,100 and strategists are wondering if there are too many bulls. joining me here is ed yardeni. you are worried about that a little bit. because it seems like everybody is getting pretty bulled up. >> i like to focus on the long run but in the short-term, there are too many bulls. we're seeing a lot of the sentiment indicators suggesting

that almost everybody is bullish, that could be bullish. >> for the right reasons, though, right. >> for the right reasons. so i'm wondering whether to be a contrarian this time around is to bet that market keeps going on despite the positive optimism. i think there is a good chance that january will see some selling here. i think a lot of people have accumulated some monster capital gains and i don't think they want to rebalance the portfolios before the year end because of the capital gains taxes so there could be some rebalancing in january. we'll see how powerful the bull market is. if it over comes that, which it might. >> what do you make of the makeup of this sort of most recent leg, that mega cap tech is awake. >> it is still going. >> does it surprise you? >> at this point we were seeing signs of broadening and into the 493, the rest of the s&p 500, i

think that is still happening. but clearly the leadership is still the magnificent seven. and look, there is always something exciting that they deliver. i mean, quantum chips is what google said they're going to be delivering. i think there is a little bit more hype than reality. i don't know that it is ready for the prime time but the market is ready to hear that stuff. >> your point is well taken. apple today, we have news about chatgpt integration. you mentioned the alphabet news when we were talking about earlier in the program. you go where the money is. >> that is right. that is where the headlines are. it is exciting to know that siri is going to be smarter with artificial intelligence. but it wasn't really a surprise that apple is moving in that direction. but that is what everyone wants to invest in now, it technology and communications and that is where the money is going.

>> do you ever think, and maybe you did and maybe it is not so out landish to think about since we're on the doorstep of a $4 trillion company in the united states stock market. apple is pushing up against that as we speak. >> well the country is extremely rich. we have like $170 trillion in net worth of the household sector. so they're sitting in a tremendous amount of net worth. and that includes stocks and real estate. i think the country is really never been wealthier and we're seeing that in the value of stocks. people have money to spend on stocks an the company are delivering earnings. >> there it is. 3.73 trillion. 7,000 is your target for '25. and 8,000 for '26. and 10,000 by decades end. talk about that. >> they are consistent with historical imagine. the s&p 500 tends to go up 7% per year and including

dividends, about 11% per year so that 11% could get us to 10,000 by the end of the decade. >> we'll leave it there. i got to run. ed, it is great having you here. mede.is ed yarni so lofty targets for stocks. why uber is under pressure today. we're back on the bell right after this break.

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nasdaq on track to close at a record at above 20,000 for the first time ever. coming up next, we'll run you through what to watch for when adobe runs in o.t. inside of the market zone. that is next.

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ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. we're now in the closing bell market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments. trading day. deirdre bosa digging in on the dip in uber and seema mody joining us with what to watch for in adobe earnings after the bell. mike, i'll begin with you. we're taking out big numbers and

hunting for more. >> definitely are. there has been to aggressive across the borld selling pressure. the market has been able to setm back and then the big growth stocks resume their flight. part of this as the rally matures, investors reach for stuff that hasn't moved that much, isn't that extended. it is a really quick and convenience way to just essentially grab for exposure. but it is also happening at a time when the cyclical parts of the market, that really did surge after the election, have been doing not much. no help from industrials or banks today and that means it is not as much about conviction rising that the fed is cutting into an accelerating economy because that is the premise a month ago. now it is more about the economy is fine right now. fed is going to do one more and then maybe meeting by meeting and number by number. but until then, there is not a lot in the way of stopping the overall market trend. i do think we're going to finish this year with all of the shorts

cleaned out, with elevated valuations and with sentiment pretty extended and then it is about seeing if this market could be please by what comes next, this is an economy that is good but fed doing less move and that is why you have the money goes to the mega caps. you goat to play the offense with a.i. and the defense with the fed doing less. >> exactly. an the fed doing less has always been a perfectly acceptable scenario if it's not because they're trapped, because inflation is too high. if it is because growth is good, then we're okay with that. >> richard fisher was talking about, doing all of these things, why bother with all of the cuts. deirdre bosa, tell us about uber today. >> let's start with the cruise news, they are going to exit the robo taxi case that consolidated around alphabet waymo and tesla. so where does that leave uber, well exposed to this growing threat that this is a winner

takes most platform shift with little or no use for legacy ride sharing. elon musk has said that his future fleet of robo taxis would operation on its own network and waymo is squeezing uber out with other deals. a lot of uncertain for the future of ride sharing as a whole if we do get mainstream robo taxi adoption. that is still the question. >> to seema body now with how we should think about adobe after the bell and remind people that the ceo will be speaking in overtime. so pay attention to that. but we need to see the numbers first. >> that is exactly right, scott. adobe has been left out of the rally that we've seen in software stocks, the etf this year down about 7% in 2024. morgan stanley say there is this perception it is dealing with

pressure and the diffusion in google and like meta. but in they could convince wall street that adobe fit news the a.i. basket that, could help and lift sentiment. partnering with balk's for enterprise customers. the street is expecting earnings of $4.66 this quarter on revenue of $5.5 billion. and results will be out and in the 4:00 p.m. eastern hour. >> seema mody, thank you very much for that. so, we'll have a closing high nor the nasdaq. not sure about the s&p. to about 6 1/2 points away from that as we try to get to 6,100. and we have ppi minute morning which is a better read toward what matters most to the fed and that is the pce. >> it is a much cleaner inference to what pce is going to be. i do think the numbers were

somewhat reassuring and then we clear the hurdle. and and the nasdaq doubling in 4 1/2 years and the 10,000 in june of 2020, i looked up it is 17% annualized growth rate, that the annualized return over that 4 1/2 year period and that is the exactly return for last 15 years. so you're going back to 2009, just after the financial crisis low. it is a remarkable trend of an index that is sort of leveraged to kind of fastest part of the economy and it is just enough kind of huge winners to keep it compounding. now it is the size that it is, i mean who knows if you could expect anything like that. but it is sort of remarkable that we have not yet had any giveback. despite the 2022 bear market that hit the nasdaq hard, you've more than made up for it. so for all of the talk of bradening, i think it is tough for that to be sustained without

macro acceleration and some sense that we're earlier in the extended cycle than we might be. >> i'm also thinking about what is going to happen in d.c. with the doge department of efficiency and all of that. and as we think about the stocks, mike, i mean, they are representative of the most efficient and productive parts of the our economy. >> yeah. >> so you may have even more of a focus on these kinds of businesses that are going to help usher in what some hope will be a new era of efficiency. >> yeah, i do think that is true. the other side of it is you have to be really sure that these toll takers on the digital economy have sustainable moats. that essentially they're not just sort of tax collectors and they're not just using scale to muscle out of the competition. because everything seems to say, this is going to be a very forgiving administration, on mergers and size.

except for big tech in certain respects. so, we'll see. i think right now it all holds up, the fundamentals are moving until the right direction and it rests for a few months. it doesn't have to be mega cap growth or the real economy. but for now they're taking turns. >> where is adobe? >> that's the end of regulation. california -- new york stock exchange. couch base is doing the honors at the nasdaq. a historic day for the nasdaq. above $20,000 for the first time ever. the s&p 500, that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. will them to closing bell overtime. i am morgan brennan. >> leading the market higher things to alphabets ongoing search. healthcare is the biggest section