a great woman she was, larry wins. and i'm not gonna let that happen. [tense music] ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro with annette weisbach. emerging asia leading gains. we'll hear from tol in a few minutes time. the smi on the move. >> the smi is on the move to the

upside as is the smb cuts rates by 50 basis points. that is its biggest move to the downside in almost a decade. the ecb is all about certain to lower rates for the fourth time this year, but the attention will be on 2025 where the economic bloc grappling with stalling growth in germany and france and trump 2.0. and the nasdaq closes above 20,000 for the first time after november's cpi print comes in line paving the way for another fed cut next week. very good morning, everyone. we start today's show looking at the latest comment from the iea. they just published the oil

market report and here are a couple of key take aways from this stage. they expect oil demand growth to accelerate in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day next year from what we have seen so far this year. this is lifting consumption as well in 2025. it will be important to understand where the increase is coming from. at the same time, the iea is also saying this morning that in 2025, the overhang could actually rise to 1.4 million barrels per day if opec plus on does start unwinding voluntary cuts from the end of march 2025. we know this is one of the key questions going into next year when you think about the outlook for oil prices as well. the recent announcement from opec plus and we're still trying to understand how that could be impacting oil prices going forward if, indeed, they decide to change policy in 2025.

in other comments, the iea is also saying this morning that the current world oil market looks comfortably supplied in 2025. not concerned here in terms of oil supply. i just want to take a quick look at how we are moving in terms of oil prices at this stage. we have brent up .4%. the wti also up about similar levels. let's digest the comments with toril at the iea. toril, very good morning. good to have you on the show once again. i like to start our conversation getting a take away from you in terms of the main expectation going into 2025. in terms of oil demand growth, why is this likely to accelerate in 2025? >> thank you and good morning. so, as we say, we're expecting oil demand to accelerate slightly from the 2024 number which is this year we are

expecting growth of 850,000 barrels a day. a significant slowdown from last year when we saw more than 2 million barrels a day and the main reason for that is obviously china. we have seen chinese demand contraction for six con secretary tough months and growth of the year, we expect a tenth. from 1.4 million barrels a day to about 140 this year. that's the main reason. we also see a slowdown in demand growth from other important emerging economies such as indonesia, nigeria and others, argentina. we are seeing this slowdown in china spilling over and also impacting other countries across the world. for next year, we do assume that chinese economy and oil demand would recover somewhat not only because of the stimulus measures that have been put in place, but also due to the very low baseline we see this year with

warm weather also in the northern hemisphere. we go back to trends to 1.1 million barrels a day next year is more or less in line with the gdp growth that is expected for the world as a whole. >> you mentioned there stimulus please measures from china. i like to discuss what chinese authorities would like to do. they announced more fiscal stimulus is expected next year. they mentioned looser monetary policy going forward. perhaps give us more color in terms what you are pricing in demand from china and, indeed, how sensitive is the fact we don't have that much detail in terms of where they are going to take fiscal stimulus. >> well, this is obviously something we are watching very closely. what we have seen so far, though, is that the stimulus measures are not really impacting the key transport

fuels and that's where we are seeing a real slowdown in demand. of course, the biggest concern for china this year is the slump in the property market. we have seen new construction builds really slow and the housing stock quite significant. we do not expect a recovery or sharp recovery in construction which is very oil intensive. the other thing we are seeing is the stimulus measures that are pushing clean energy technologies. more than half the cars sold in china are electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles. we are also seeing a push for lng and trucking and seeing the increase in a push for high speed rail. these measures are depressing oil demand in the terms of consumption even though there will be some oil demand or energy consumption in the building after the infrastructure related to those.

we expect the chinese oil demand and economy shifting gear into different type of economy. more service oriented and clean energy technology focus and less oil intensive. >> toril, i would also like to discuss the implications of the re-election of donald trump because in the report, it is very clear that you are looking at the potential risks that could come from higher tariffs. the report says the threat of higher tariffs and other barriers weighing on trade do not bode well for oil demand outlook. just give us more color on that front as well and what are you forecasting at this stage since we don't have clarity on what the president will do with the tariff front. >> the market in terms of prices and how investors are looking at the oil market. for us, as with china and the new stimulus measures that may or may not be put in place next year, we also looking to see

what the new administration will do in terms of policy implementations once next year. this is something that we are watching closely and for now, we're just waiting to see what measures will be put in lace when the time comes. >> in the meantime, what are you pricing in oil prices for next year? the recent comments we have seen here on cnbc, several analysts suggesting we could see the price of oil trading at around $60 a barrel. is this, you know, likely to happen given all the information you have at this stage? >> so, the iea does not forecast oil prices per se, but what our balances show with oil demand slowing significantly in 2024 and even if it is rising mod of the modestly next year, opec

supply group are continuing to grow strongly. the american countries led by the united states guyana and brazil and canada are raising this year and next year. that is enough to meet the expected demand growth on the global level. we are also seeing growth from other countries. non-opec plus supply growth is about 1.5 million this year and next. this is the question why we are seeing the market well supplied next year even if opec plus is not increasing production from april as you discussed in the introduction. we are seeing a surplus emerging of 1 million barrels a day in 2025. of course, if the opec extra voluntary opec plus cuts are unwound, that surplus could be even bigger. >> i guess we'll continue to monitor what happens on the ground. in the meantime, we appreciate your time. toril bosoni at the iea.

let's get a check of how we're moving so far this moving across european equity space. the stoxx 600 just marginally below the flat line as investors are waiting a very important day on central bank policy. of course, we already heard from the swiss central bank, but we are have yet to hear from the european central bank. let's also get a check on the bourses and how they are moving across the continent. the ftse 100 is up .2%. it is in switzerland, that we are seeing the biggest moves. the smi up by more than .50% after we heard the central bank announcing a 50-basis point cut. we'll discuss that in more detail later in the show with carlin. in the meantime, interesting moves to the upside in switzerland. this is coming after a mixed picture in the session on wall street after the cpi print. this actually rose 0.3% on the

month in the month of november, i should say. that figure was in line with expectations marking the fastest rise in monthly inflation in seven months. the headline annual inflation figure of 2.7% did not derail bets on the fed rate cut this month with the market seeing a 25-basis point move lower as more than 96% likely. that's according to lseg data. meanwhile today ppi data is due today with the figure expected to tick up 2.6% and the 0.2% expected on the month according to analysts polled by reuters. as i said earlier, the s&p closes to a record year. we head to details after this break.

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welcome back to the show. time now to look at all of the central bank action starting with the swiss national bank. it has delivered a bumper 50-basis point rate cut citing lower than expected inflation since its last decision. carolin joins us from bern. carolin, walk us through the historic decision really. >> reporter: 50-basis point cut by the smb. that is by the new chairman. the first time he is currently speaking to the media. obviously, he is well known by economists and investors. he was vice chairman of the smb for the last two or three years. he has been with the smb for some time. he has experience at the imf. obviously, he is no stranger to anyone out there. the big question is why did he move down by 50 basis points?

it is a pretty bold move, not entirely unexpected. if you look at the currency markets and what they have done, you see the big selloff in the swiss today against the euro and against the dollar. maybe that was an element of surprise. who would have thought he would have started with a bold move. will this gamble payoff or reinflate the economy and maybe most importantly, silvia, will this jumbo cut, will it prevent the s&p having to go into negative rates further down the track? option pricing could mean we could see negative rates in december of 2025. that is exactly a year from now. obviously, the smb has come out of negative rates roughly two years ago. it has been in negative rates for seven yeah and a half years. we know the pros and consequence. this is the question for

economists going further. to what -tent is this trading on the euro/dollar or if this is sentiment play. this has been the case the last couple months. we have seen safe vens. some like jpmorgan and citi expect further appreciation of the swiss nc. further upside here expected for the swiss franc. that would indicate to you that any moves by the smb today and in the future might not help so much. >> to your point, carolin, we are seeing statements we are ready to intervene in currency markets if necessary. stick with us. we'll return to you in a moment. i want to look at what is happening in rankfurt with the

ecb expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. that is putting the benchmark rate to 3%. this is falling at three of the last four meetings with the inflation figure at 2.3%. annette, any room here perhaps to see a surprise from the ecb? some inspiration from switzerland over to frankfurt? >> reporter: no, we are far away from the proactive pproach from monetary policy here in frankfurt because the governing council is -- well, i would say hesitant to surprise the markets and go try to be ahead of the curve. what we are getting is moves like 25-basis points today and perhaps at least a hint of a discussion that 50-basis points might be on the cut for next time. that's at least for the majority of analysts and economists for that meeting today.

of course, looking at the economy, the economy is at a much worse state than expected. we have the deteriorating pmis, especially for france and also germany, that could make them think if that 50-basis point rate cut should possibly be the next step. looking at what we get today is the rate cut and new round of staff projection which might be of interest. the ecb is set to downgrade the economic growth protection this year and next year and potentially the year beyond. we are getting for the first time a rating on growth, economic growth and inflation for 2027. so just to give us an idea of what they really think about the dynamics unfolding across the euro area and we might get a

slight downward revision for inflation as well. of course, a big topic and el vant in the room is france and what happens there next and what they think the tariffs imposed by the trump administration might actually mean for inflation as well here in the euro area. uncertainty and ecb in these uncertain environments tends to err on the side of caution than to step out and say 50 basis points. that's not there the mode of how they operate. >> i guess we'll see whether christine lagarde will have answers. we'll speak later today. in the meantime, i want to put everything in context and discuss all of the central bank action with stefan, the chief economist at efb bank. good morning. good to have out the show. i would like to understand what do you make of the announcement from the smb?

you were expecting a 25-basis point cut. in the end up, they delivered on the 50-basis point cut. >> quite a few of us were hoping for 50 basis points. inflation is very low. it is .7% if you look at the overall cpi. if you take out the housing component that moves mechanically with the smb policy rate, it is actually .1%. inflation is low and economy is slowing and 50 basis points was the right move. >> stefan, on that point and i was arguing before this is very much a preemptive move. is it enough to keep the smb from going negative again? >> well, you'll see that. i think there's a clear risk inflation will fall too low in switzerland. there is a clear risk the smb will decide to introduce negative interest rates in about

a year's time as you mentioned earlier. i was struck by the fact when the new chairman of the smb governing board, when he first appointed, he mentioned a negative interest rate in switzerland. they are perfectly ready to introduce them or reintroduce them if it becomes necessary. i think they think of this as a possibility, too. >> obviously it is always a possibility. the other tool in the tool box that they resorted too frequently and maybe excessively is fx interventions. they have been quiet on that front in the last couple months or so. will that return to that and leave out the negative rates and try their luck in the fx markets before, but that comes with unwanted consequences and blow to balance sheets and potentially pretty heavy losses. politically, we know that's not very palatable.

>> exactly. intervention is something the smb has been engaging in since 2008 very aggressively. in 2022, it was formally made part of the smb policy framework. they are certainly ready to intervene if they have to. so, they may well come into play. when you look at central banks, it is important to remember most central banks, particularly the ecb and fed, meet eight times a year. the smb meets four times a year. that changes the calculations, if you like. >> stefan, i would like to understand more broadly what is the tone that the new chair. smb is actually setting at this stage. is his first meeting such a bold move? how do you interpret that in terms of what to expect from the new chair going forward? >> i think it is a continuation from jordan's policies. the smb has been very pragmatic,

actually. it talks tough, but it looks closely at the economy and is happy to do whatever it takes in terms of interest rate cuts. i was not surprised they cut 50 basis points. the economy calls for that and they went ahead. i think we will continue to see continuity. >> i would like to run out the conversation and talk about the ecb as well. we are expecting a 25-point cut from the ecb as well today. i would like to understand the biggest challenge for the ecb in 2025. there are so many problems and challenges on the table at this stage. which one would highlight as most difficult going into next year? >> the euro area sees inflation remaining too high. headline inflation is 2.3%. core inflation is almost up by 3%. services inflation is almost up by 4%. the inflation pressures are a

little bit too strong in europe, but there is plenty of evidence that the european economy is weak and particular in the large manufacturing countries like germany. it has to balance the economic slowdown and weakness with inflation being a little high. i think cutting 25-basis points today will mean that monetary policy remains restrictive. so, they can go ahead and do that. i wouldn't expect any major, major surprise. the ecb doesn't do surprises. i think the gradual cuts that will continue is the way for them to go. since they meet eight times a year, they could speed up the cut. they could cut at every meeting if they wanted to or every other meeting. i expect 25-basis points today. >> you say they don't usually deliver surprises. sometimes the market adds a little bit of pressure on what the central bank could do. we actually saw the expectations of the potential for a 50-basis point cut increasing around

october time. what i would like to understand here is when you think about next year, when you think about 2025, are we going to see the ecb cutting rates significantly as a result of the growth picture we have across the bloc? >> it depends very much on growth and that in terms depends on the policies pursued by the new trump administration in the u.s. suppose we see trade barriers and threaten to slow the european economy further, then i can well imagine the ecb will decide to cut interest rates a little bit more rapidly or a bit more often. i can well imagine they could do that. the big question, i think, for all of us is what will the trump administration do with economic policy? will it carry out all of the bold policy moves that president-elect trump has mentioned during the campaign or will some of them not be

introduced or scaled back? i think no one really knows. that's the big question mark for 2025. >> i guess soon we'll find out. in the meantime, we appreciate your thoughts this morning. stefan, chief economist at efg bank. carolin will speak to the smb chairman martin schlegel. don't miss that interview later on cnbc. we'll bring you the rate decision at 1:00 p.m. to find out what the ecb is doing next. the german economy is expected to stagnate in 2025 following two years of contraction according to the world economy. it cut the forecast of 0.5% growth from september and said there are hardly any signs of noticeable economic upturn in the country. this as we keep a close eye on what's happening on the corporate front. volkswagen has offered a 14%

wage hike in the next ten years to the tennessee assembly plant workers with profit sharing as part of the deal. this after the contract talks with workers who joined the uaw in april. this comes as the automaker is locked in the automaker in germany as well amid threats of plant closures and pay cuts. staying in germany, bosch plans to cut up to 10,000 jobs saying the cuts are needed to remain competitive. the company's board plans to meet friday to discuss the plans. mercedes-benz is considering a restructuring as it struggles with the v business. more than 20,000 jobs could be at risk. so plenty of there to monitor on the corporate front. meanwhile, hensoldt cut the

margin to 20% and confirmed the outlook to 2024 financial year eyeing 2.3 billion euro in revenue. in amid the firm calls a tense global security situation which it expect to drive above average demand for defense electronics. coming up on the show, our next guest says the uk remains a global hub for a.i. innovation despite policy changes. we'll discuss more with daniel dines, the ceo of uipath after this break.

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the emerging asia leading gains. toril bosoni talks about the source being a positivity. >> we assume the chinese oil demand will recover so much not only because of the stimulus measures in place, but due to the very low baseline this year. the smi on the move higher after the swiss national bank cuts rates by .50%. the biggest move in nearly a decade. the ecb is all by certain to lower rates today, but the outlook on 2025 as the bloc grapples with growth in germany and the impact of trump 2.0. the nasdaq closes above 20,000 for the first time after november cpi print comes in line paving the way for another fed rate cut next week.

time now to get a check on european equities. we have been trading for just over an hour and a half at this stage. it is basically flat for the stoxx 600 at this stage. investors are trying to figure out where to take their positions and portfolios and all of these comments from the central banks. we, of course, heard from the smb. we are awaiting to hear from the ecb later today. let's not forget next week we are not far from hearing from the fed and, indeed, the bank of england as well. let me show you the different bourses across the european continent. we have seen a strong performance over this week so far for some of the european equities. looking at the german dax yesterday, ending the day up .3%. the ftse mib ended the day up .6%. thinking about their performance

today, we still see green over in italy with the main market up .3%. less stronger performance when you think about the weaker performance with the german dax. nonetheless, i want to take you to the different sectors to get a better picture of the corporate front. it is food and beverages the top gainer at this stage up .8%. interesting though how we are also seeing green in auto sector up almost .7% despite the news we heard this morning regarding mercedes-benz and volkswagen and the overall outlook for the sector. oil and gas is important to look at this morning. the sector up .6% after we heard from the iea. when you think about what happened in terms of oil prices, too, we actually are seeing oil prices making significant gains so far this week. let's see where they will end up at the end of the week. meanwhile, a look at the worst

performing sectors in today's session. we continue to see a lot of pressure for the retail sector down more than 1% yesterday. it was also the worst performing sector after those results from techs. let's see what will happen in the space. we know this is a particular important moment for the retail sector with the christmas shopping season, of course, after black friday and cyber monday, as well. i want to take you to individual stocks. there are a couple we are keeping an eye on. luxury names are trading in the green after brunello cited strength in orders for 2025 collection. the group said it expects sales to grow 11 to 12% this year. turning our an ttention to the now. all in the red this morning after the warning on annual profit amid tough hiring conditions citing macroeconomics

conditions as well. and currys sounding the alarm on the uk budget after the 2% rise in first quarter revenue, but flagging new headwinds from government policy. our next guest says the uk remains a global hub for innovation despite the recent tax policy changes. i'm pleased to announce the cio, daniel dines. give us color why the uk is still a good investment opportunity at this stage despite the announcement from the government? >> first of all, thank you for having me. it's a very ugly morning. i just came from u.s. always i enjoy london and uk and, look, it is becoming our global hub for a.i. because of strictly the talent we have

access here. i actually bought a startup a bit more than two years ago and we are building around good talent for a.i. we find easier to move higher here actually than in u.s. i think the talent is on equal footing. tax implications, i think, are small on the global scale, really. >> it is so interesting you say that because it is such a different message from what we tend to hear in the uk. you know, people are offered higher salaries in the united states and incentives to move there. often times it is capital market is stronger in the u.s. and easier for companies to access capital. explain to us what is the difference, you highlighted talent, but what else? is it purely the tall ent that

the investment opportunity? >> for us, it is the talent, of course, but also being closer to uk customers and european customers. now i think it's essential oment in the scaling of a.i. and movement started two years ago with chatgpt. i think we'll see within the next couple years a lot of progress within the enterprise. it's really essential to work closely with our big enterprises, uk and europe, and build kind of the next version of a.i. based services. >> would you say there's to some extent saturation in the united states? >> i don't know if there is a saturation. right now, i think we are still just about to start really a large-scale deployment of a.i. this is a technology that can be used by very high skilled people. so now the entire movement is

how can we put it in the hands of a lot more people and deploy in relevant business use cases. >> staying with the u.s. and re-election of donald trump was quite bullish as a result for crypto stocks, for instance. when you think about a.i., what are the potential implications from his re-election? do you foresee more momentum for the a.i. industry as a whole? >> yeah, i think so. probably there would be less regulations, so the a.i. would be advances in a.i. and data collections, i think, can move a bit faster. i think that might be one of the hindrance here in europe in developing a.i. >> which ones, sorry? >> the excessive regulation. >> this is often one of the points that people do mention when you think about europe as a continent, not just in the uk. i would also like to explain to our audience what your business

actually does. you are an a.i. business whose software business helps automate business tasks. it seems you are not so far benefits from the a.i. boom so far. why? what's wrong here? >> well, i think we are -- we are working with large enterprises and we are creating now kind of the second act is our company that will be based on generative a.i. while many analysts and customers are bullish on what we are bringing, i think the markets are still on the sideline waiting for us to deliver, you know, improvement in our numbers. >> so, are you going to deliver? are you expecting he strategy to change here and boost sentiment for your stock? >> yes, i believe within the next year, the generative

automation which is the area we are focused and actively will deliver meaningful transformation to businesses of our customers. >> we'll see. we'll monitor what happens in 2025. we appreciate your time this morning. that was daniel dines. the ceo of uipath. i want to take you to wall street. the nasdaq has risen from 10,000 to 20,000 in 165 days. that is quicker than the 7,398 days it took from 5,000 to 10,000. that is a 3% slide in 2022 as inflation pushed the fed to deliver a series of rate hikes with optimism fueling to fresh records. let's get a look at the u.s. futures. we are a couple of hours away from the open on wall street. when you think about what futures are telling us at this stage, it suggests a lower start

to the trading day stateside after the mixed picture on wednesday. we see continued pressure on the dow. after strong performances yesterday, i want to share this stat with you because this is quite extraordinary. despite apple's negative performance, the magnificent seven added $460 billion in market cap on wednesday. let's see how they will move later on today. nonetheless, a strong, strong move there for the magnificent seven supporting some of those moves overall for the nasdaq and s&p. staying within the space, meta has donated $1 million to the trump's operation fund. this is the latest step from the company and ceo mark zuckerberg to boost ties with the incoming president. zuckerberg has met with trump in mar-a-lago since the election while top executive has

responded to criticism over moderation of policy saying errors have led to quote harmless content being penalized. we'll continue to monitor that story. as we approach the final part of the show, here are the four things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. we get the latest u.s. inflation gauge with ppi due today. traders watching jobless claims. in the corporate world, we get earnings from costco and broadcom. and adobe issued a weak outlook for sales in 2025. big tech names are in focus after the nasdaq broke 20 k with elon musk being the first person with a net worth of $400 billion. coming up on the show, chinese yuan feeling pressure today amid reports that bingbing is beijing is allowing the currency

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welcome back to the show. now let's get an update on what is happening in south korea. opposition parties pre--sented new bill to parliament. defending his decision to impose martial law saying it wants to protect democracy. he survived impeachment vote last week. meanwhile, the stateside, the fbi director christopher wray will resign at the end of term. he will stay in the trump administration will take over on

january 20th. trump previously said he plans to nominate kash patel for the role. nbc's peter alexander has more. >> reporter: christopher wray says he will resign before president-elect trump takes office. >> i realize it is time for me to remain before the current administration takes office. >> reporter: wray was selected by trump in 2017, but leaving before the term is up after trump made clear he wanted wray out. >> this is the best way to avoid dragging the bureau deeper into the fray while reinforcing the values and principles that are so important in how we do our work. >> reporter: trump has spent years attacking the fbi and justice department for what he says has been partisan prosecutions against him and slammed wray over his role with

the classified documents investigation. >> i can't say i'm thrilled with him. he invaded my home. i'm suing the country over it. he invaded mar-a-lago. i'm very unhappy with the things he's done. >> reporter: trump calling the resignation a great day for america. trump had already picked the man he wanted to replace wray, kash patel. >> we look forward to a smooth transition. i'll be ready to go on day one. >> reporter: patel is a trump defender. critics sounded alarms about his calls to go after those who unfairly targeted trump. patel names 60 people in his book as part of the deep state. >> do you want kash patel to launch investigations into people on the list? >> no, he will do what he thinks is right.

>> reporter: the fbi association is praising wray for his focus on doing the work that keeps our country safe. >> this is not easy for me. i love this place. meanwhile, president trump has invited his chinese counterpart xi jinping to his inauguration next month according to cbs. now it is not clear whether xi has accepted what is an unprecedented invitation with no record of a foreign leader ever ceremony. now to the chinese yuan. markets continue to digest a reuters report that beijing may allow the currency to weaken next year to impact the blow of tariffs. i'm pleased to say that jeremy stretch at cibc capital markets

is joining us this morning. jeremy, how are you looking at this report that perhaps beijing will weaken the currency in 2025? >> when that report initially broke, we saw it move up quickly and it looked as though it is heading to 730. we see a retreat now from the highs of the course of yesterday. i think we have seen the chinese press also pushing back against the notion. i think there are question marks as to whether this report really has a great deal of veracity. the highlight of the inauguration invite, maybe there is an opportunity there for a slight softening of the pressure points and that might alleviate the pressure on the currency as well. >> what are you pricing in going into next year in the currency space thinking about china and thinking about the u.s. and indeed the threat of tariffs still on the table? >> indeed.

the threat of tariffs is inevitably going to remain on the table. we are very much behold en o the headline risk between now and the 20th of january because it is easy for the trump regime to talk tough on tariffs. beyond inauguration, we need to look at the actions, not the words. there may be a differentiation between those. we get the top line story, but we need to see the exceptions and small print in the dynamics. there will be a lot of uncertainty as the process plays out. of course, the one important barometer as far as trump is concerned, the main guard is the equity market. that is the benchmark that ill preclude the worst of the headlines becoming reality. >> tell us what are your thoughts in terms of the u.s. dollar? i think one of the guests this week suggested going into next year we will see a weaker dollar. how likely is it? are you also of that opinion?

>> it may be a year or two where we see strength erhaps in the initial period. it will dissipate through the year. we will expect u.s. exceptionalism to remain in place through the first quarter of next year as the market pares back and the growth story remains robust in the first instance. i think as we move forward, we start to see the gradual narrowing with the u.s. and rest of the world. we see changes in the interest rate space. i think the market is under pricing the risk of the fed activity next year. if that starts to come through, the realization the u.s. is running an imbalance. >> no doubt that the conversations are fiscal policy are definitely growing. i would like to stay within the central bank for the time being.

it is a busy day on the central bank policy. i would like to understand your thoughts going into 2025 given the different speeds of the central banks. what would you say is your top currency call for 2025? >> i think one of the most important things for 2025 is which central banks get to neutral and which ones forced to go beyond that level. the smb is the classic case where we got down to 50 basis points. i think the rest of the zero lower bound is increasingly likely into the course of next year. that's one of the reasons why the swiss franc is the main themes because we see the smb being much more activists. i think there are other central banks somewhat slower in terms of the policy easing. the bank of england is in that context. although we get to neutral by the end of next year, it is a much slower pace of easing. swiss is one of the key themes

for next year. >> before i let you go, i thwart your want your thoughts on the euro. there are so many variables at this stage. >> i think we have a lower run. we have another run to 103 or 102.5. we have that level. a parity run cannot be put off the table. i think once we get to those extremes, that field is fully value correction. we have a lot of bad news priced into the euro story. i don't think the euro won't go as far. we will think the reverse scenario in terms of the fed. that will probably provide a little bit of value of 102 or 103 next year and then we can see a slow recovery with the euro in 2025. >> would you think the ecb is not going to match the market expectations in terms of cutting rates? >> i think one thing is we have a lot of negatives in the

economic story. there may well be slight resilience. the other context is the political risk baked into the euro. we have the german snap election coming up next year. there may be an unexpected outcome in terms of fiscal loosening. we are talking about budget consolidation in france, but the scope and room out of germany will provide a slightly more constructive fiscal back drop in terms of the eurozone. that will provide a resilience with the eurozone story. >> would you say the outlook here for the fiscal policy in the eurozone is looser and significantly looser? we are not seeing france making a lot of progress in bringing the debts and deficits down. when you think about what's happening in germany, there are discussions at this moment about what to do with the debt brake. is this the situation if we see

looser fiscal policy in the eurozone? >> there is the per pet situation of the debt brake. there are enormous sectors which need investment. i think we may well start to find that loosening on the fiscal stance in germany providing a looser back drop as a whole. as you say, france is not ing its budget overall. it will be a looser fiscal stance which will alleviate pressure on the ecb in terms of cutting rates aggressively. >> i guess we will see. that was jeremy stretch. do not miss our decision time at 1:00 p.m. london time live on cnbc and sngs cnbc internationa youtube page. and a final look at how we

are moving in the equity markets. we have have green across the b. we are looking at significant moves in italy. ftse mib up .50%. the cac 40 is below the flat line. in switzerland, we saw the announcement from the ecb of the 50-basis point cut. easing a little bit from the gains. nonetheless, the market is up .3%. u.s. futures suggest it could be a lower start to the trading day over there. i guess we'll find out in a couple hours time. that is it for today's show. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your "five@5." futures are lower this morning after nasdaq crosses 20,000 for the first time. ahead, we break down the ride to 20,000 and what it will take to reach that next milestone. first, it was artificial intelligence and now the latest craze sweeping wall street. quantum computing. the fed and now two other central banks in europe. tracking the trump trade. the ceo of one company that will add to