sports. >> i was going to say my dad watches a lot of volleyball. don't you think there is more of this to come, alex? >> it is unbelievable. it really is a marked jump in enthusiasm particularly in big time college college basketball. that atmosphere is like a men's. >> the nfl game was really bad. thanks for watching "power lunch." thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." here is the new york stock exchange on this friday. it's make or bake hour. two big tech stories we are following. apple tracking towards 4 trillion in market cap. broadcom, surging toward its best day ever. here is the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. nasdaq making a little run here. dow is off about 2% for the week and is working on a six-day

losing streak. more stocks down than up, which has been the trend of late. it does take us to our talk of the tape. will stocks run or limp to the finish line this year? perhaps that answer lies in what happens with tech, which has seen a resurgence of late. we mentioned apple and broadcom. steve and stacy on the case. steve, we start with you in this march toward 4 trillion. >> close here. let me give you stats here on what apple shares have been doing the last several days. nine straight days of intra-day highs. that ended yesterday. shares are 7% from hitting the $4 trillion milestone. the first public company to reach that mark. there's a lot going on in the meantime in apple's world. launch of chatgpt on iphone on wednesday. more artificial intelligence

features as that apple intelligence suite, those are coming early next year. we got the information report that we will talk about that broadcom is developing an artificial intelligence chip for apple. there's this macro story around apple. we are learning that apple doesn't necessarily have to go out there and buy billions of dollars worth of nvidia chips and build data centers like we see microsoft and eta doing. it's able to pull this off without putting in such a huge stment right up front. of course, you cannot ignore the trump factor. shares are up 11% since election day. trump said he spoke with tim cook before election day. there's a sense of optimism that tim cook can pull off a repeat with the president-elect and dodge tariffs like he did in trump's first term. shares there down just a hair here. well on their way to 4 trillion.

>> cook doesn't need to take a number outside the gate at mar-a-lago like many of the others are doing, because he already had managed to develop some level of working professional -- whatever you want to characterize it, relationship with mr. trump. >> yeah. we saw so much of that during trump's first time just before and right after his inauguration. we saw hang wringing from tim cook's peers, from google executives holding these town hall meetings with concerned employees, we saw the dynamic with jeff bezos and how that ended up killing amazon's pentagon contract. all of the people are learning their lesson from the first time. we see them take trips to mar-a-lago. jeff bezos will likely visit next week. mark zuckerberg, a couple weeks ago. not to mention the inauguration

donations. we see that from sam altman who donated $1 million as well. we are seeing a snapback of the perception of how silicon valley plays along with trump that basically take tim cook's playbook from round one. >> thank you. now broadcom joining the trillion dollar market cap club today. it's nice to have you with us. are you surprised the stock moved today? how would you put it into perspective for yourself? >> you have to remember, people were expecting the guide to -- they were worried ai numbers would be weak and there might be wireless seasonality. the ceo overcame all of that. now we look for likely material ramp on their custom ai into the

second half. then he gave people a reason to dream. he painted this longer term three-year picture that if you believe, would subject material upside to get into the ai applications if you go in significant earnings power. it's up a lot given where sentiment was going into the print. i kind of get it. he gave you a reason, especially if you are a -- if you are in the stock for a long haul, he gave you a reason to own it. i'm not surprised that people are chasing it today. >> you said, he might think about shopping for a leather jacket. i see what you did there. >> yeah. why should jensen be the only one? >> it does speak to how this company is trying to get an ai

lift. it is a part of its business. it's not the biggest part of its business, which i find interesting. in thinking about how much should a chip company -- how much of an ai bump should they get whether it's not their massive, if not core, business? >> it's going to be their core pretty soon if they are anything close to right. if you roll the numbers out a few years. i think currently, it's -- i can't remember. they did 12 billion this year out of -- i can't remember what the number was. it was a third of their business. more as a percentage of semiconductor business. if you go out a few years, the ai piece is going to be a material part. probably 40%. more than half of the semi business if you look out three to four years. i think it's important to remember -- i made this point here before.

this big ai boom that people are talking about, there's really only two companies that were seeing any upside. it was nvidia and broadcom. if you think through the potential evolution of this market as we go forward, you got nvidia, it's looking like it's custom asics. i still think these two are the winners. for broadcom, it's more and more -- this print, if you believe the numbers, this was almost like their nvidia moment. nvidia had their moment last year, middle of the year, may. this may be like their nvidia moment. >> what do you make of what's happened with chip stocks in general over the last few months? they diverged in performance between software and semis. does a report like this help change that? what does?

>> semis have been weaker as a group. you have to remember, performance outside of ai has not been great in the sector. it's really been bifurcated. if it wasn't for the ai cycle, semis would be having a nasty time this year. look at everything, the end markets. pcs are muh. smartphones aren't going down but you aren't getting unit growth. industrial, into a double dip. it's getting weaker. auto, i've been nervous for quite a while. it's been resilient until recently. it's starting to roll over. there aren't any end markets out there that are -- even traditional data center is quite weak. look at broadcom's classic networking business is weak. there's nothing outside of ai that's really strong, that's supporting the space. given that context, i'm not surprised to see the divergence within semis. that will filter into the

different ways of sector plays off against other sectors. >> you did raise your price target to 250 from 195. we are at 226. it could get to 250 reasonably quickly. >> i guess we will worry about that when we get there. it's having a good run today. >> it is. it's not my first rodeo. see you. enjoy the weekend. let's bring in courtney garcia, shannon shikosha. it's great to have everybody with us. apple, broadcom, it does underscore what has been a resurgence of sorts for tech, especially on the larger cap side of things, right? >> absolutely. you hit the nail on the head. we will limp to the finish line or walk? the good thing about limping is you are putting one foot in front of the other. to round out the year, tech may

be what drives us to further gains in the market through the end of the year. i think we have to be impressed with the resilience of the companies' balance sheets. the mag 7, 60% of free cash flow. as was highlighted, they are situating their balance sheetz -- sheets for the economy of the future. i think they will continue to -- we will see the market concentration. we believe in the ening out. >> do you think we will see the concentration into next year? people tried to write the story off a little bit thinking that, well, the stocks are up so much. the valuations are stretched. growth rates while impressive are slowing a bit. there's no way they could possibly maintain the growth rate that they had through this entire year. here they are. they are saying, not so fast. back with a vengeance. >> some is the enthusiasm around

incoming policy. the potential for deregulation that doesn't just benefit financials, which have done very well. >> they sure have. >> this friendly -- business friendly environment for mega cap tech potentially. you have some enthusiasm that's embedded in the rally. the fundamental story is still constructive. >> nasdaq has gone positive. it's the only of the three majors that is positive on the week. is this the place once again to lean into? >> i agree with the idea that this trade isn't going anywhere. i don't know if it's the best place to add your cash you have on the sideline. this is a category when you look at the mag 7 whose facing slowing earnings growth and high capital expenditure which it comes to artificial intelligence. we don't know when that's going to be monetized. we overestimate what ai can do in the short term. underestimate the longer term. how much of that is sustainable

short term and what's priced in. >> isn't this being monetized? you can start to draw some lines, can't you, from spend to return? >> we are drawing lines. but i think seeing the hard-earned cash on the bottom line. apple is a good example of this. they're going to get ai on the phones, integrating chatgpt. is it going to have the upgrade cycle? we haven't seen that. will it happen? it's possible. i don't know if it's going to happen as quickly as people are hoping. i'm not getting out of this trade. i agree. you have a lot of good pointss. we have people 30%, 40% above their target. take profit. spread out to other areas. don't be overexposed. >> how would you address that? >> i think we are talking about ai. i think if you look at mega cap tack and think about the broadening, i think it goes

beyond just the mega caps we are talking about in terms of the ai impact. the other thing is i would say, we are looking at the three cs. consumer, china and cloud. if you think about apple and amazon, the opportunity there for consumer spending, it's starting to inflect. we are starting to see that. we have seen a resilient consumer. but the consumer is getting more constructive. that could be helped by an expansion of real income growth. you think about a potential uptick in chinese stimulus next year. think about cloud consumption, which has been on the sidelines. we are seeing evidence from an enterprise perspective we could see spending in cloud consumption. that supports mega cap tech names. for reasons outside of the ai story we spent a lot of time on this year. >> jordan, where are we on your

view of '25 in the market? what kind of returns do you think we're going to get? >> high single digit. >> single? >> high single digits. 5% to 10%. i think one, we are concerned about valuations. i'm a little bit hesitant to make a big rate bet in terms of interest rates coming down. the question really becomes for next year, when will markets start to care about interest rates? i think we will see a 4.5% u.s. ten year, potentially higher depending on what policy announcements we get over the first half of 2025. in that environment, i think you have to get a little valuation correction in the market. we can't keep trading 22 times. assuming you get that correction, maybe the big names struggle a little bit. but you get some of the participation on the cheaper side of the market. i think that gets you in the high single digit. >> you can't trade at 22 times forward earnings if earnings growth in general doesn't

continue to grow along with -- into that valuation. at least to support it. are you skeptical on how good earnings are going to be? you are not going to get multiple expansion because you have gotten a lot of that. you are going to get good earnings growth. that's going to be able to carry this market higher. it's going to justify where you are trading now. you may get multiple expand a little bit. >> struggle with a market that can get to 23, 24 times. i don't think you will get multiple expansion. i may not be as bullish on the index side. i do think you will get some of the more value oriented parts of the market that probably have a little bit more, perhaps double-digit earnings growth in the second half of next year. the uncertainty around the political backdrop, what's going

to come down the pike. are consumers going to stay resilient given headwinds? potential inflationary things picking up. there's a lot of uncertainty. after two years of 20 plus percent returns, i think it's okay to accept a high single. >> we are tracking on the s&p for 27%. rate cuts. how much matter? next week, we are likely to get another one. are all bets off? we will have loretta mester on. we will ask her what she thinks. >> i think that's -- what's more important than what they are doing next week -- it's likely they will cut. should they be cutting while we are at full employment? prices are stable. that's the question is what do they need to do going forward? we are not getting down to 2% that they want to hit. we see inflation is still sticky here. the question is, what is that

tone going forward? are they more hawkish? that's more important of where rates are early next year. >> the tone? >> exactly. we want to know, are they going to pause next year? can we expect rates to come down further? there are going to be some of the inflationary pressures which jordan points out. that's one of the bigger risks. are they going to cut next week? probably. >> what happens if courtney and jordan are connect? maybe the fed cuts less -- even less than people think now and rates remain sticky higher than people want them to be? is the market going to have a problem with that, even with a backdrop of deregulation and expected tax cuts and more robust economic growth? >> interestingly, where we haven't -- what you would expect is that we are in the camp that we end up with a rate higher

than expected, 3.75% to 4%. we think there will be a pause after next week. if you think about the levers of distress and you think about areas of the market which have, frankly, been fairly resilient and less vulnerable than we thought with rising interest rates, you are seeing just a resetting of expectations for 2025 and 2026. we will have -- our view is we will continue to have stronger nominal growth. it's another above trend year for the u.s. economy. we do think to your point that that -- the headline growth is going to be offset some of the continued weakness. it could result in things like -- we are very constructive on real estate. you could see a longer tail on the trade as -- especially in residential. we are not seeing that more immediate impact than we anticipated from rates. our view is that the overall strength of the economy is able to offset the higher rates as we

move forward into 2025. >> i find it interesting that you think while rates can be a little sticky high, you do like small caps. isn't it a problem if rates back up a bit? how is that trade possibly going to work? >> because the fed is cutting rates, which is going to more directly affect the loans on small and mid capitalization companies. >> even if they cut slower and smaller? >> to a certain extent. but they are cutting. the short end of the curve is coming down. i think you are setting up not only from an interest rate coming down on that end, but also from mergers and acquisitions, less regulation. small cap companies are more u.s. focused, which in a new administration can put them in a better benefit. they do more business here in the u.s. and less abroad. for a lot of reasons, not just rate cuts. >> do you agree? >> i would be geared more towards larger cap. thread the needle with mid caps.

if you believe in that high play, that cyclical recovery in the economy, deregulation, business friendly. i don't know if i would dabble too far into small cap space. >> we will leave it there. have a good weekend. nice to have you here. shares of lam weston are popping right now. >> a possible deal in the food space to bring you. post is working with bankers to explore a possible deal with lamb weston. reuters says it's ongoing at this point. lamb weston is the french fry maker. it has seen as a target by post since 2015 when it was owned by conagra.

a post has a market value around $7 billion. lamb weston is closer to 10.5. shares going the other direction here. >> thank you. we are just getting started. the dean evaluations. we have a forecast for the market in '25. risks, whether the market is too expensive or not. we are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching "closing bell" cc.

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stocks are heading for another return of stellar returns. it's likely to last into 2025. one obstacle could be the lofty

valuation. is it too rich? we are going to do an amazing year. are we too expensive? are we all right? >> it's tough to follow back-to-back 25% plus years. if we hold up through the end of the year, i think -- we got close in the 1950s and mid '70s. if nothing else, coming off that high, it's going to be tough to continue in that momentum. i think that's got to be kept in the equation somewhere. >> would you call the market overpriced, overvalued? how would you assess it? >> i could come down in the middle. it's richly priced, but it's not bubble territory. people compare it to the late '90s. am i going to sell everything and head for the hills?

no. am i going to take every dollar of cash i have? not that kind of market. i might be reluctant to put the cash to work in the market right away. if nothing else, the cost of not being in the market. people ignore it when they think about being conservative. you would have given up 60% upside by staying in cash. that's a lot to try to get back. >> what do you make of the argument, as i brought up earlier, that you may not be able to get any more multiple expansion in 2025, but you could still get a good return next year because you are going to get better earnings growth than what was anticipated in much respect because of the policies that are going to be introduced by this new administration? do you buy that? >> i will take 8% to 10% return after the last two years. that would be good enough for me. i'm not trying to get rich. i juto preserve and grow

my wealth. i'm not looking for double-digit returns. if i make 8 to 10, that's good enough. >> interesting. when you look at the way that some of the ai-related trades have gone, when you look at the idea that the nasdaq has had a bit of a resurgence. we got to 20k for the first time ever. are you surprised by that? did you figure this broadening that had finally showed up was going to last longer? how do you assess that? >> not really. you don't count the mag 7. it's up 31%. the market is up 25%, 26%. by itself, it's not like tech is taking off on its own. the segment of technology which is ai driven is a very small segment of the overall tech sector. i think the ai architecture part

obviously, chips, cloud storage business have taken off. the ai product and service, the market is being cautious about piling into those stocks. i'm not jumping in. >> what do you make of the out performance of software versus chips? it's pretty dramatic. what's the signal? >> i think that the architecture market has gotten ahead of it. nvidia had $2 trillion. at some point you have to say, you are building all this. what are you going to use the architecture for? the next phase of ai is the use of the architecture, software, product and services that emerge. that's what i would be looking for. converting the architecture to making money off that. >> i think we're trying to take a look at what this new administration is going to

bring, what deregulation and tax cuts are going to mean, doge, what that's going to mean. you have one sector on your mind today beyond tech. that is health care. why so much? how much does the recent debate, this growing discourse that's around the idea of health coverage, the cost of it, the companies that are in the center of that public storm? >> i define a bad business as a business where nobody is happy. producers, consumers, the government is not happy. health care is in trouble. it was the worst performing sector of 2025. the market is leading in with lots of questions. i have a feeling this might be that very strange moment in time where both sides, democrats and republicans decide that

something needs to be done. if that's the case, you are going to see pharmaceutical companies and insurance companies in the eye of the storm. to me, that's where you are going to see a lot of action in 2025. doesn't make it a bad sector. i think you gotta be picky about where you invest. >> do you feel like as it relates to that that the goalposts have moved? >> i absolutely do. i can't find a single person who will defend health care as offered today in the u.s. almost 20% of gdp is spent on health care, the outcomes don't reflect that spending. clearly, something needs to change. i think that's a consensus. once that's a consensus, there's going to be action. that's why i think in 2025, i wouldn't be surprised if you saw some major actions on health care. i don't know what they are, but they will affect the profitability and value of the businesses. >> would you stay away from those stocks as a result? >> i don't have the luxury.

i already have four in the portfolio. includes unitedhealthcare. >> will you sell it? >> i did sell half of my unitedhealthcare leading into 2025. it's not the signal that i think it's overvalued. but it's done well for me in my portfolio. at this stage, i think there's a reckoning coming. i'm worried about what unitedhealthcare and other companies like it will feel as a consequence. >> i want to make sure i got this correct. you sold half of it since the incident here in manhattan? >> yes. >> professor, i appreciate your time. thank you very much. we will talk to you soon. >> thankou y. up next, loretta mester will join us after the break. the global injectable drug market, including high demand glp-1 weight loss drugs, is projected to hit $800 billion by 2025.

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welcome back. the fed expected to cut rates next wednesday. after that, anyone's guess as some say a prolonged pause could be in the cards. loretta mester is the former cleveland fed president. >> glad to be here. >> are they going to cut next week? >> well, i suspect they will. i think they will have a robust discussion about what the right move is, not only next week's meeting but i think you can accomplish the same as you cut in december and really put out a

signal that, probably we're going to have to go slower certainly than we thought in september. as you said, inflation is proven to be more sticky than they anticipated. there hasn't been much progress over the past four months. also, the economy on the real side, growth is above trend. that's a bit stronger than they anticipated. and the employment part, which is an important part of the mandate, that's also proven to be stronger than they feared in september when they made that first 50 basis-point cut. given where the economy has proven over the past several months and likely will go over the next few months going forward, i think a pause is in order. whether they do it in december or not, i don't think they will. the markets are expecting them to cut. there's no reason to disrupt that at this point, given they can signal that, hey, we do

think we have gotten rates better down. they have calibrated policy and now it's about, where is the outlook? what is the data informing our outlook, informing this? it seems like given where inflation is and its stickiness, it makes sense to go slower. they are getting closer to neutral. recalibrate toward neutral, not to go low neutral. >> would i be overdoing it to suggest that it sounds like you are thinking we could get what i would characterize i guess as a hawkish cut next week? >> i think that's what people are saying. that's the way they characterize it. i don't know whether i would say hawkish. it just makes more sense. i think that -- i wish they would get way from data dependent and call it data informed. they have an outlook where they think the economy is going. they have a view of the risk.

the real question is, have the data that have come in since the last meeting changed your outlook significantly enough that you want to change your policy? i think at this point, for december, the anticipated cut, there's not enough change. going forward next year, i suspect they will revise their outlook and have fewer rate cuts for next year, which means going slower. >> do you think there would be a dissent next week? if so, what would that mean towards the greater conversation in the room? >> i think they will have a robust discussion about, is this the time to pause or should we go ahead with the 25 and then signal and communicate that, given where the economy is going? could some dissent if they felt strongly that this is the time to pause? that could happen. we have seen dissents before. the first cut was dissented.

i think that the chair rightly tries to get consensus. i think he is comfortable, especially when there is not an obvious move. this should be a robust debate. having a dissent which shows they had that robust discussion, isn't a bad thing. >> is it an ominous sign for where things could go from here if, let's say bowman, who i'm talking about, and you just referenced, if they dissents on a move in and of itself? maybe that portends that it's not going to be such a friendly conversation, my word, maybe the wrong to use there as it is, but you get the point i'm trying to make. you could be on the cusp of a really robust months ahead of debate as to whether they need to cut anymore now, because the

economy is strong. you have what some expect to be re- reflationary -- >> you just made the point about debate. having a dissent on that isn't the end of the world. that would communicate that we did talk about both sides, the in committee did debate that. i don't see why that would be negative. the fed has been criticized more by having everyone in agreement even when there's cases on both sides. how the markets will read that, i think they will read from the press conference, from the statement and from the sep that, okay, the fed still thinks the outlook is moving down. but it's not moving down as quickly as they hoped or

expected the last time they put out projections. that just means that to actually get inflation, to get back to 2%, which is their goal, they will have to have a little bit firmer policy path. that means fewer cuts next year than they pencilled in in september. you are right, there's fiscal policy actions that are likely to come. it's a little too early for them to actually put in something in the sep. but i do think it will inform their risk assessment. i think that's the way -- we will see it most likely showing up in the risk assessment, maybe in the december sep. then as more is revealed about the timing, presumably the staff are running scenarios of policies through the models, that will inform how

they will adjust the forecast. you are right, that's an uncertainty. the fed doesn't set fiscal policy. but they need to think how it affects the economy and in particular inflation and employment, which are their goals. >> let me lastly ask you on the idea of fed independence. do you think the fed is truly prepared to a person on how disruptive the administration plans to be? that is not qualified whether that's suggested to be a good or bad thing. they're going to be disrupters. people they are putting in, they want to be disruptive. they have the doge, which wants to disrupt how the government spends its money. you have conversations today about, will they get rid of the fdic? i'm wondering how you would

think about that knowing what's likely coming. >> you know, the fed has faced these kinds of discussions before about its independence. everyone at the fed realizes the importance of independence in terms of monetary policy making, because when you have independent deciders on monetary policy, you end up with a better outcome for the economy. i would presume that the administration -- incoming administration wants a good economy. i think that's well established. i think there are things to think about in terms of, maybe there are ways to simplify our regulatory structure. we have a very complex financial system. it wouldn't be a a missmiss to about that. it takes a model to beat a model. reorganizing isn't going to solve the underlying complexity.

there are things that the fed has been working on with the other regulators to try to make the regulatory structure simpler, more predickable table. i think those are the ways i would start it first. i don't think that discussion is a bad discussion to have. i don't think getting rid of one of the federal regulators would be the place i would start. >> this can almost be akin to in the parlance of how we think about things here every day, an activist investor on steroids, so to speak, going after corporation usa. they're going to shake it up. they're going to want to change a bunch of things. that is going to be for career, you know, fed people who have been around those jobs for a long time, it might be jarring. no?

>> i mean, no one likes to have a lot of change all at once. i'm more optimistic that some of it will be thoughtful. right? >> even if -- i think the point is, even if it is thoughtful, it's something that has not been seen or experienced before, the disruptive nature that this administration wants to be for a number of different parts of our government. >> i agree with that. they certainly are going to be looking at all agencies, that includes the federal reserve. but the fed, of course, has been -- during the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, there was discussion about reorganizing regulatory supervision and regulations of the banking system. this isn't a new concept. it's something that the fed -- people at the fed have been through before. there are parts of the

relationships that the fed has with gislators, through the bank presidents and the board of governors, a lot of that is explaining how the fed works and how we organize our work and how we think about things. those are productive conversations. i don't think we're starting from scratch. i don't think we're starting from a point where they want to tear off things. they recognize that there are probably inefficiencies in the government. we start from the point of view that we think we're doing a pretty good job. where is the place in the middle where we can actually get to a place where everything works better? i guess i'm more optimistic about it and maybe overly, but we will see. >> i appreciate your time. thanks so much for being with us. we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. we will be right back.

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ten minutes to the bell. let's get back to steve. >> let's talk about tesla. the shares are higher on a reuters report that the transition team wants to drop a car crashing requirement opposed by the company. it forces automakers to report crashes if automated driving systems are enabled within 30 cos ofsend an incident.

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"closing bell," mike santoli will break it down. rh at its highest level. courtney reagan starts us off. >> investors looking back the weaker than expected third quarter. focusing on expectations and the early read from the fourth quarter. accelerating into december from november. expecting market share gains for the quarter. the retailer raising its total demand. rh plans to fully exit china as a manufacturing source by the end of the second quarter. any potential tariffs should not have a negative impact.

four firms increasing price targets for rh after the results. shares are up 14% today. 49% year to date. outperforming the xrt, xry. >> thank you for that. i did this to you again. we have a minute left. >> it's a similar story to what it's been a few days. 1% off the highs. we haven't been below 6000 since before thanksgiving. that's fine. without the buying panic in broadcom it might be a different story. we have more stocks down than up for the tenth straight session. the market needed to reset. we have treasury yields probing above or right around 4.4. that's where bond buyers have come in over the last six or seven months. we will see if that does happen or if it's a stutter step.

really, there is definite selling in the cyclical parts of the market. >> that does it for us. enjoy the weekend. get some rest. that does it for us here at the new york stock exchange.gain here. everybody have a great weekend. [ bell ringing ] >> we'll send it into "overtime." that bell marks the end ever regulation, cfp board ringing the closing bell. absent corporation doing the honors at the nasdaq and it is a mixed week with the dow extending its losing streak to 7 sessions in a row. that is a longer stretch in the red since 2020. and s&p decided not to do much of anything. just took the day off. that is the scorecard on wall street. but winners stay late. welcome to closing bell "overtime." morgan is off